The Breakdown

This week on Long Reads Sunday, our selection is “Whose Century?” by Adam Tooze in the London Review of Books. Nominally a review of four recent scholarly works on the conflict between the US and China, Tooze main argument is that the central problem with viewing this as a new Cold War is the idea that it is new. Instead, we need to understand that, contra Fukiyama’s famous essay, history didn’t end in 1989 - at least not for the Chinese. What’s more, the narrative of having “won” the Cold War fails to take into account our spectacular failures in Asia. Only by reframing our understanding can we make sense of the most important geopolitical conflict of the coming century.

This week on the Breakdown Weekly Recap, NLW covers: A terrible week for US-China tensions, with dueling Consulate closures and an incredibly hawkish speech from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Worsening economic indicators, particularly around jobless claims which saw their first weekly rise in four months The likely size of the next US stimulus bill - $1T to $3T

Today on the Brief: Which industries are recovering the best China retaliates against U.S. after consulate shutdown Dollar heads toward its worst month since 2018 Our main discussion features returning guest Tuomas Malinen, CEO of GnS Economics. In this discussion, Tuomas and NLW discuss: An outline of the European Union’s new recovery plan The new debt issuance structure that marks a first for Europe The challenges of currency unions How Europe’s debt crisis changed how Europeans think about economic integration Why the current plan amounts to “stealth federalization” Why some member states are in a state of mutiny over the fund Find our guest online: Website: GnS Economics Twitter: @mtmalinen

Today on the Brief: Disappointing jobless claim numbers with first increase in 4 months US banks now allows to custody crypto Senate hears arguments for a digital dollar in the context of US-China economic competition Our main conversation with Sahil Bloom Sahil Bloom is an investor with Altamont Capital Partners and a prolific author of financial literacy Twitter threads. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss: Today’s jobless claims Long term economic impacts from COVID in the travel industry “Forced efficiency realization” How remote work opens white collar professionals to global competition Whether tech platforms are a destructive or enabling force for small business Why financial education is essential and sorely lacking Why the Robinhood rally crowd represents a positive opportunity for bringing new voices into the markets Find our guest on Twitter: @sahilbloom

Today on the Brief: US Gov’t forces China’s Houston consulate to close US previously-owned housing market grows 20.7% May to June Insider stock selling reaches record levels Our main discussion: DeFi 101 Today’s episode of The Breakdown is a primer for anyone who has lost track of the terminology surrounding decentralized finance. In it, NLW goes over: DeFi’s background and origins Market making in a traditional context Automated market making How liquidity mining incentives economic participation How decentralized exchanges differ from centralized exchanges What “yield farming” actually means Why we shouldn’t be concerned about the Yield Farming bubble

Today on the Brief: EU leaders agree on $2 billion stimulus package LinkedIn job cuts show weakness in the professional sector Has DeFi jumped the shark? Our main discussion: The Fed’s changing inflation strategy University of Oregon professor and Bloomberg columnist Tim Duy recently penned a piece called “The Fed Is Setting the Stage for a Major Policy Change” arguing that we’re likely to see more inflation, promoted by the Fed. In this episode, NLW breaks down: Why the Fed is turning away from its traditional inflation forecasting method Why the Fed is likely to let real inflation hit 2% before doing anything Why some are calling the move “simply asinine” Why some think the Fed is full of hot air and has no power to actually create inflation Why the Fed is trapped by its definition of inflation Audio clip featuring Alhambra Investments head of research Jeffrey Snider in an interview with Emil Kalinowski.

Today on the Brief: Mastercard, Standard Chartered and PayPal all deepen their engagement with crypto Japan inches closer to a central bank digital currency The real estate “doom trade” opens up Our main discussion: GPT-3 Generative pertained transformer-3 – or GPT-3 as it’s better known – absolutely took over the internet this weekend. It’s a new AI language model that can do some truly incredible things, from writing poetry to composing business memos to generating functioning code from natural language descriptions. In this episode of the Breakdown, NLW provides a 101-level overview of GPT-3, including: What an AI language model is Why AI for language is more difficult than image-based AI The background of OpenAI, the Elon Musk-backed project behind GPT-3 Some examples of what GPT-3 can do Why reasoning and narrative still elude the technology Reference posts: GPT-3 Examples, a Twitter Thread Jonathan Johnson on AI Language Models Rob Teows: GPT-3 Is Amazing – And Overhyped

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, we look at two essays about stablecoins previously published on CoinDesk. The first is called “USD Stablecoins Are Surging, but Zero Interest Rates Complicate Business Model” by Hasu and was one of the first pieces to recognize that demand was coming not just from the crypto space but from emerging markets facing crisis time currency pressures. The second is “Hyper-Stablecoinization: From Eurodollars to Crypto-Dollars” from Pascal Hügli. The piece argues that stablecoins are likely to play an increasingly important role in the global economy. In effect, they are a better version of the critical eurodollar system.

On this edition of the Weekly Recap, NLW explores: No-volatility bitcoin and DeFi’s big quarter An uptick in central bank currency action PayPal crypto confirmation A China-U.S. rhetoric flare up Social media as democracy’s fault line In Fed World, is the narrative trade the only trade?

Today on the Brief: The latest information in the Twitter hack Thailand starts using its central bank digital currency Treasury Secretary Mnuchin calls on Congress for more funds Our main conversation is with Jon Turek, author of “Cheap Convexity.” In this conversation, he and NLW discuss: Why the dollar has gotten stronger thanks to a savings glut from Asia How a too-strong dollar hurts other markets more than the U.S. Why globalization died in 2011 and we just didn’t realize it How the Fed fixed the global dollar plumbing Why there are still questions of actual dollar shortages The detente in U.S.-China financial relations Find our guest online Website: Cheap Convexity Twitter: @jturek18

Today on the Brief: Adjustment to bank profits in anticipation of growing debt delinquency The lowest decrease in jobless claims since March A boost in retail spending Today’s main discussion: The Great Twitter Hack, feat. Dr. Tom Robinson, chief scientist and co-founder of Elliptic Wednesday, at around 2:15 p.m. EDT, prominent Crypto Twitter accounts started sharing a similar message about a bitcoin giveaway. A couple of hours later, Elon Musk and Bill Gates were saying they were feeling generous and wanting to give bitcoin away. A couple more hours and every verified blue check mark account on Twitter was taken down. It was an attack with massive implications, if not much monetary gain. On this episode NLW breaks down: What happened Which accounts were impacted How much BTC was transferred The narrative battle of “bitcoin scam” vs. “Twitter hack” Why it might have been a state-sponsored attack Why the real intention might have been to discredit Twitter Why the (supposed) revelations about Twitter’s administrative tools could end up in a congressional inquiry Expert commentary provided by Dr. Tom Robinson. Find our guest online: Elliptic website: Elliptic.co Twitter: @tomrobin

No geopolitical relationship will shape the world over the coming decade as much as that of the U.S. and China. A day after President Trump signed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act enabling sanctions on those that threaten the autonomy of China (and the companies that do business with them) and the UK worked to ban Huawei 5G infrastructure, this episode of the Breakdown looks at the key faultlines and issues that have that relationship in a dangerous downward spiral: Virus blame recriminations Trade war tensions The Hong Kong Security Law Huawei 5G and critical digital infrastructure TikTok India border skirmish South China Sea Military Exercises The politics of labeling this a “new cold war”

Today on the Brief: A followup on Tesla, corporate earnings and PayPal’s crypto ambitions New COVID-19 shutdowns in California Small businesses on the brink Our main conversation: Bloomberg has reported recently bankrupt companies including J.C. Penney and Hertz had provided executives with more than $131,000,000 in bonuses. On this episode of The Breakdown, NLW examines: The logic behind these bonuses Why that logic is stupid How this sort of reward for personal failure in the wake of 2008 led to the rise of populism on the right and left Why we should allow companies to fail Why people’s sense that the system is a crony system isn’t wrong

Today on the Brief: Wall Street quarterly earnings season opens Investor flock to higher-yielding Chinese government bonds Bitcoin whales go down but other types of HODLers go up Our main conversation: What the hell is going on with $TSLA? Elon Musk is now richer than Warren Buffett. A year ago, Tesla wasn’t as valuable as Ford or GM. Now it’s more than 25% of the value of the auto market as a whole. In this episode, NLW looks at a set of possible explanations: Elon as a Golden God/the cult of personality Tesla as an innovative tech company Better-than-expected vehicle delivery The mother of all short squeezes Robinhood effect Mr. FEDerico Narrative Market Machine In the end, NLW argues that in a world where 1) the new retail base is willing to engage in narrative and meme warfare and 2) where the Federal Reserve distorts prices, the narrative market machine becomes more of a driver of prices than ever before.

On this episode of Long Reads Sunday, we look at Professor Stephen S. Roach’s piece “The Covid Shock To The Dollar.” In it, he argues: Americans have been squandering their savings potential Because of this, we are forced to borrow surplus savings from abroad We have usually been able to do this on favorable terms That window may be coming to a close There could be a 35% drop in the dollar over the next 2-3 years

On The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap, NLW explores: The final tally on the TikTok Doge viral campaign The growing geopolitical tension between China and the US and where it’s manifesting Positive economic indicators in reduced jobless claims Negative economic indicators in growing COVID-19 cases and deaths Why bitcoin is sideways Why Treasury yields are down Why gold is up

Today on the Brief: Hong Kong re-closes schools based on COVID-19 growth Coinbase explores direct U.S. exchange listing China starts selling stock, easing massive rally Our main conversation is with Liberty Blitzkrieg creator and editor Michael Krieger. Michael announced just before recording that he is done publishing on the LB site. He and NLW discuss: How Michael became disaffected while working on Wall Street during the Great Financial Crisis How Zero Hedge amplified Liberty Blitzkrieg and sent Michael on a decade-long writing path How Michael discovered bitcoin and the bitcoin community in 2012 Why social media platforms need to be regulated with the principles of the First Amendment How all political parties use division to stay in power How outrage culture has become endemic, commodified and co-opted by existing power Why the only option to fight outrage culture is to opt out Find our guest online:Website: libertyblitzkrieg.com Twitter: @LibertyBlitz

Today on the Brief: Slight good news in new and continuing jobless claims Record corporate equity and debt sales during the crisis USDC freezes $100k Our main conversation: Introducing the Macro Media Index. The Macro Media Index is a monthly summary of the best macroeconomic tweets, essays, podcast and videos from around the internet. In this inaugural edition, NLW looks at a few key themes: The disconnect between the market and the real economy The role of the Fed and monetary policy in growing wealth inequality and social unrest The Robinhood Rally and bankruptcy bet that took institutional investors by complete surprise The great inflation vs. deflation debate Featuring insight from previous Breakdown guests including Luke Gromen, Lyn Alden, Jesse Felder, Preston Pysh and more.

What’s old is new again! What happens when you combine a mostly hibernating memecoin with the world’s most powerful (and controversial) meme platform, and throw in a new generation of daytraders that have become convinced that they can drive the price of anything up? The great TikTok Doge pump of 2020, of course. In this episode, NLW breaks down: The history of Dogecoin How TikTok became one of the most popular, influential, and controversial apps in the world Why the r/WallStreetBets, Davey Day Trader Global Global, and Robinhood Rally day trader movement perfectly set up this pump How #TikTokDogecoinChallenge began to trend What has happened to Dogecoin since the trend started Why this all makes a weird sort of cynical sense

Today on the Brief: Social media apps get caught in geopolitical tensions Pitchforks around the Paycheck Protection Program Brazil blocks Binance Our main discussion is with Daniel Lacalle. Daniel is chief economist at Tressis and is the author of numerous books including “Life in the Financial Markets,” “Escape from the Central Bank Trap” and his most recent, “Freedom or Equality.” He has been named one of the 100 most influential economists in the world by Richtopia. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss: Why the recovery will likely be “L” shaped and uneven, not “V” shaped Why the “bailout of everything” undermines capitalism and promotes zombie companies that can’t service their debts Why zombie companies crowd out space for startups and small businesses How government programs can incentivize relationships with government over strong business practices How the current economic crisis could become a banking crisis Find our guest online: Website: dlacalle.com Twitter: @dlacalle_IA

In this extended Brief, NLW tells the story of the economy through five themes: The story of the economy as told by five macroeconomic indicators including Chinese stocks, New York City real estate, coronavirus cases and more. China stocks surge – but how much is it driven by Chinese state-sponsored media hype? A tale of two cities – real estate in New York City and Hong Kong are telling very different stories A global currency crisis in Lebanon - foodstuffs are up 100% in the last two weeks as the pound continues to falter The COVID-19 ticker - daily cases continue to grow in the U.S. but deaths are declining The cost of the U.S. losing its place in the world - from travelers turned away in Italy to decreasing capital inflows Plus a bonus: what the Nasdaq all-time highs really mean

An appropriate post-July 4th episode of the Breakdown's #LongReadsSunday featuring Human Rights Foundation CSO Alex Gladstein's "Why Bitcoin Matters For Freedom" Read the original on Time Follow Alex on Twitter

Financial education and financial literacy are at crisis levels in this country. Financial advisers spend billions on advertising but a fraction of that on education. The resources that are available tend to be inaccessible and not designed for the people who need them most. Financial media remains a boring, exclusionary acronym game. The net result of all of this is a population of Americans who don’t have the mental tools to understand, make sense of and make good decisions around their finances. In this passionate conversation with NLW, financial adviser Tyrone Ross argues that all hope is not lost. According to Tyrone: Financial literacy is a cross-cutting crisis not limited to any one demographic Even the resources that do exist aren’t designed for the way their intended targets consume media Despite all the bad things happening, this moment is also providing an inflection point where change is possible Find our guest online:Website: tyroneross.io Twitter: @TR401

OKCoin and BitMEX recently came together to provide a $150,000 grant to Bitcoin Core developer Amiti Uttarwar. In this conversation, Amiti and OKCoin CEO Hong Fang discuss: Why OKCoin believes it is essential for companies in the space to support Bitcoin Core development How OKCoin and BitMEX came together around this grant Why Amiti is focused on the P2P layer Why Amiti believes Bitcoin should be private by default Why Bitcoin Core will better serve more populations if more populations are represented in who is building it Find our guests online: Hong Fang Website: https://www.okcoin.com/Twitter: @hfangca Amiti Uttarwar Twitter: @amizi

Even before the COVID-19 crisis, Reddit’s WallStreetBets channel was featured on the cover of Bloomberg BusinessWeek as an emerging market force. Since then, between the surge in signups for Robinhood and the wave of followers of Davey Day Trader Global Global, these day traders have taken an even bigger place in the conversation about the stock market. While many finance professionals (and, most certainly, traditional financial media) have treated the movement with skepticism, paternalism or outright derision, Slow Ventures’ Jill Carlson has a very different view. To Jill, this group represents a new wave of investors who are unwilling to wait for permission to play a game that has been largely closed off to most. In this conversation, Jill talks about why the Robinhood revolution is very, very real, and what opportunities for entrepreneurship and investing she sees in terms of financial education, new exchange tools and more. Find our guest online:Website: jill-carlson.com Twitter: @jillruthcarlson

Satoshi Nakamoto is often recognized for his technical genius in solving the double spend problem. He is also widely revered for his willingness to walk away from the protocol to make it stronger, something no other entrepreneur who has created anything on the scale of Bitcoin has ever done. What people discuss less often is Satoshi’s marketing instincts. In this illuminating conversation, serial bitcoin entrepreneur Dan Held argues: Satoshi had strong instincts about how price would drive bitcoin adoption The bitcoin white paper document was a marketing pitch aimed specifically at the cypherpunks The competition between bitcoin narratives is something that gives the protocol strength The competition to shape bitcoin's narrative is truly free and open to all

What would you do if you were approaching your 40s, burned out and realizing the type of financial success you had been pursuing wasn’t actually serving your true goal of freedom? If you were George Gammon, the answer would be to change everything and start globetrotting in search of new opportunities. George Gammon is the host of the rapidly growing George Gammon YouTube channel and Rebel Capitalist podcast. He is rapidly building one of the most rapid macro and investing fanbases around. In this Free Ideas Festival conversation, he and NLW discuss: The pursuit of personal freedom Producing a home-flipping TV show in Colombia Why inflation is at the heart of people’s economic discontent How crony capitalism is driving young people to Communism Building a rapidly growing podcast and YouTube empire

June 2020 will go down in the history books as an extremely chaotic and confusing period. In this “Best of the Month” retrospective, we look at some of the best guest conversations from The Breakdown, including: Human Rights Foundation CSO Alex Gladstein on the importance of cash for privacy DigiChina Editor-in-Chief Graham Webster on China’s decade-long turn away from liberalism Alhambra Investments lead researcher Jeff Snider on why the Federal Reserve’s power is a myth Popular Front founder Jake Hanrahan on the media’s veneer of objectivity Castle Island Ventures’ Nic Carter on why people should have rights to their social media profiles The Crypto Dog on mining bitcoin in 2011 Independent macro analyst Jesse Felder on the Fed’s role in increasing inequality BlockTower Capital’s Ari Paul on how people lose faith in central banks “Think For Yourself” author Dr. Vikram Mansharamani on the recipe for inflation Independent oil and trading expert Tracy Shuchart on how easy money enabled the shale revolution Adamant Capital’s Tuur Demeester on historical analogies for seething discontent

The latest Long Read is "Crypto Dollars and the Evolution of Eurodollar Banking" by Avi Felman and Max Bronstein. This piece covers: The Dollar Milkshake Theory Why the demand for the US dollar remains so high Why demand for dollars is increasing rather than decreasing What "eurodollars" are What the shadow banking system is How eurodollars and shadow banking contribute to USD demand How stablecoins and cryptodollarization could create demand for crypto

As states shutter economic activity because of preventable COVID-19 outbreaks, it’s deja vu all over again. This is a movie we’ve seen before: Rise in what could have been preventable COVID-19 cases A call for shutdowns (plus voluntary closures) Rampant politicization of health and economic issues rather than common sense approaches Persistent jobless claims plus new layoffs Wall Street nerves turning into new Federal Reserve and Treasury action Rinse, repeat, economy!

Today on the Brief: A consumer spending rebound A new crypto regulatory regime in Europe A bitcoin warning from a famed investor Our main discussion: Tuur Demeester is the managing partner of Adamant Capital, a bitcoin investment firm that earlier this year published “The Bitcoin Reformation.” In this conversation, he and NLW discuss: The four preconditions for a reformation, and how they apply today How hyperinflation contributed to the French Revolution Why inflation is becoming a more significant threat today How bitcoin memes function like unifying doctrines from past revolutions Why millennials could be the Greatest Generation 2.0 Find our guest online: Twitter: @TuurDemeester On the web: Adamant Capital

Today’s edition of The Breakdown is an extended version of the Brief, this time covering five topics. New Jobless claims - sticking stubbornly at ~1.5 million new claims per week, despite economist expectations The “whack-a-mole” economy - Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers predicts as much as 30% of the economy may need to close to get COVID-19 under control PlusToken scam pressure on BTC price: Has scam selling suppressed the price of bitcoin since early last year? Biggest ever bitcoin option expiry; more than $1 billion in notational value BTC options are set to expire tomorrow, Friday, June 26 Apple’s UX privacy triumph: Users will have to opt-in to allow apps to track them across other apps as well

The economy is nothing if not confounding right now. Across every domain, from real estate to oil to retail, there are bull signals and bear signals. In this episode, NLW looks at those signals in the following areas: Markets - strong stock recovery vs. growth in cash deposits Employment - growth in jobs vs. persistent continuing jobless claims Retail - growth in foot traffic vs. demand destruction Oil - growth in demand (but not in economically productive diesel) Real estate - surge in mortgage applications vs. worst home sales since 2010 Dollar - declining confidence vs. there is no alternative COVID-19 - reduced death rates in the U.S. vs. growing caseload What’s the answer? Is this just a narrative mirage recovery? Listen and find out.

Today on the Brief: PayPal and Venmo reportedly adding crypto buying and selling Trump executive order temporarily suspends H1-B visa program Continued growth in bitcoin derivatives Our main conversation: Tracy Shuchart is an oil- and commodities-focused trader in the private equity space known for her wide-ranging insights on financial Twitter (FinTwit). In this conversation, she and NLW discuss: Why the shale revolution of the last 10 years shifted the power balance in global energy among the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia How easy money in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis enabled the shale revolution as much as new technology Why after the 2014-2016 oil crash it was inexperienced private equity firms that picked up where banks left off with shale How a growing focus on dividends and cutting costs was creating structural problems for shale even before the COVID-19 crisis How COVID-19 coincided with a contentious negotiation between Saudi Arabia and Russia that ultimately sent prices to less than $0 Find our guest online: Twitter: @chigrl On the web: chigrl.com

Today on the Brief: New Federal Reserve research suggests reaction to Facebook’s Libra basket approach was overblown Italian Banking Association pushing to test a digital euro U.S. housing has worst month since 2010 Our main conversation: Earlier this month, Messari hosted the Mainnet virtual summit. At that event, NLW moderated a session called “Macro Investors Sound Off!” featuring BlockTower Capital’s Ari Paul, Blockchain Capital’s Spencer Bogart and Arca’s David Nage. The discussion included: The evolution of the Fed put and how it shapes the markets How the collision of Bitcoin’s halving and the Fed’s reaction to COVID-19 created a powerful narrative moment Why the “Money Printer Go BRR” meme was so effective Why the Paul Tudor Jones letter was hugely influential within family offices Why these investors expect to see some significant announcements around bitcoin exposure from traditional investors in the months to come Find our guests online: Ari Paul: @AriDavidPaul Spencer Bogart: @CremeDeLaCrypto David Nage: @DavidJNage Watch the rest of Messari’s Mainnet 2020 sessions.

A reading of two pieces How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Money Printer by Jill Carlson | CoinDesk + Fight the Fed Jesse Felder | The Felder Report

The big narrative in financial media for the last few weeks has been the insurgent Robinhood rally, led by the AC/DC-blaring Pied Piper Dave Portnoy, owner of Davey Day Trader Global Global (DDTG Global). As people try to make sense of the strange retail trading phenomenon, one perspective is the participants (average age of 31 on Robinhood) are reacting to a market that has left them behind. In this view, they are assaulting the market with otherwise outrageous and ludicrous strategies because, otherwise, how will they get their piece? This week’s Breakdown Weekly Recap looks at this in the context of some surprising (and frankly depressing) stats about the millennial generation’s current wealth, as compared to where boomers were at the same time in their careers.

Today on the Brief: FTX lists two Compound tokens Reddit partners with Ethereum Foundation on Layer 2 scaling Black-In Freedom Festival reimagines Juneteenth Our main topic: Dr. Vikram Mansharamani is a lecturer at Harvard and author of “Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst” as well as the just released “Think for Yourself: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence.” In this wide-ranging conversation, he and NLW discuss: Why our relationship with experts and expertise is leading us astray How COVID-19 shows the downside of both over-reliance on, and complete rejection of, experts How the economic crisis surrounding COVID-19 is bursting bubbles and moving us from a period defined by deflation to one defined by inflation Why “monetary debasement is here to stay” Why the U.S.-China relationship is the key backdrop for understanding the next 10 years of global economic reality Why inequality threatens the fabric of our economy and our society, and what might be done about it Find our guest online: Twitter: @mansharamani Website: Vikram Mansharamani | “THINK FOR YOURSELF”

Today on the Brief: Powell says private companies shouldn’t be involved in Central Bank Digital Currencies According to former NSA head John Bolton, Trump told Mnuchin to go after Bitcoin Interest around Compound driving speculation around a DeFi-driven bull run Our main topic: This week’s U.S. jobless report brought bad news. Whereas economists had expected new claims to fall to 1.29 million from 1.57 million the week before, claims fell just 58,000 to 1.51 million. Continuing claims fared even worse. Economists predicted these claims would fall 600,000+ to 19.9 million. Instead, they fell a tenth of that - 62,000 - to leave total continuing claims at 20.5 million. In this episode, NLW breaks down what we can learn from these numbers when they’re combined with the previously released May jobs report.

On the Brief: Big tech vs. the American political right and left Why TikTok users are pretending to love China for clout Decentralizing venture capital Our main conversation: The Crypto Dog is one of crypto Twitter’s best known characters. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss: Mining bitcoin in 2011 The difficulty of hodling across a decade The emergence of the crypto trader in the Ethereum era Trader agnosticism Pseudo-anonymity and social media Developing the character behind the avatar Global nomadism and the acceleration of “work from anywhere” The vibe and feel of Hong Kong today Find our guest online:Twitter: @TheCryptoDog

Today on The Brief: An unexpectedly good retail sales report drives market confidence Are we in for a second wave of white-collar layoffs? The latest rumblings in central bank digital currencies Our main conversation: Jesse Felder is an independent financial analyst and one of the best financial curators on Twitter. In this wide ranging conversation, he and NLW discuss: The Robinhood rally and what makes it both alike and different from previous manias The illusion of American recovery and the disconnect between markets and fundamentals The Federal Reserve’s role in increasing economic inequality Why the dollar is significantly overvalued relative to other currencies Why financial assets could be poised for a rough decade Find our guest online: Twitter: @jessefelder Website: The Felder Report

Today on the Brief: Stocks down on coronavirus fears Demand destruction The looming retirement crisis Our main theme: Bitcoin is up more than 30% on the year. After a crash alongside equities, it has proved incredibly resilient. There are famous new entrants to the space like Paul Tudor Jones II. So how can a Bloomberg editor argue the year has been bad for bitcoin? In this response podcast, NLW argues that most of the arguments are about narrative, not the underlying fundamentals. He presents six reasons why not only has it not been a bad year, but the exact opposite is true: Demonstrated institutional uptake Demonstrated resilience New champions Narrative fundamentals Need in emerging markets End of economic orthodoxy

After a week where bankrupt Hertz pumped 890%, the question is: what is the historical precedent? Luckily, we have finance history guy Jamie Catherwood to fill us in. In this essay "Rubbish Rallies" (written by Jamie, read by NLW), Catherwood tells the story of an 1820s scam that turned into an 1860s market mania - even though everyone knew it had been a scam the first go around. History might not repeat, but it certainly rhymes. This is a bonus episode of The Breakdown, recorded originally last week as part of a private beta test for new content forms. If you like this type of episode, let me know @nlw on Twitter.

The stock market has long been disconnected from the underlying economy, but much of what happened this week - particularly the pumping of bankrupt company stocks - suggests that something new is afoot. In this episode, NLW breaks down three long-term trends suggested by the so-called Robinhood Rally, including: The “insurgency” aspect of a generation of young professionals who are willing to play the financial game rather than have it be played for them A totally new force in financial media, which could hit like a wrecking ball in one of the stodgiest, traditional media industries An embrace of a certain type of cynicism or nihilism when it comes to the values of financial markets This week on The Breakdown: Monday | Why War Reporting Is the Right Mental Model for Today’s Media, Feat. Jake Hanrahan The founder of Popular Front joins NLW for a discussion about protests, media and how the people being covered tend to not reflect divisive politics. Tuesday | What the Stock Market’s ‘Robinhood Rally’ Means for Bitcoin The largest 50-day rally in stock market history and even shares of bankrupt companies are up more than 100%. What is going on? Wednesday | A Vision for Digital Property Rights, Feat. Nic Carter Most people today look at social platforms like any other private company, but what if we saw them as alternative jurisdictions with a new set of property rights? Thursday | Why the Fed Keeps Denying Its Role in Increasing Inequality The Federal Reserve expects low inflation, says rates will stay close to zero through 2022 and keeps lying about the role of central banks in increasing inequality. Friday | Bitcoin Is More Than an Inflation Hedge While fears of a “great monetary inflation” have driven the recent bitcoin narrative, other aspects like censorship resistance and peaceful protest matter just as much. Saturday | The Chad Index Versus Doomer Internet Money: The Breakdown Weekly Recap This week, the wildest, most nonsensical, volatile part of the market wasn’t bitcoin, it was the “Robinhood Rally” in equities.

Today on the Brief: Why bitcoin sold off A bank-the-unbanked narrative for the digital dollar It’s Dave Portnoy’s world and we’re all just living in it Today’s main topic: Why inflation isn’t the only bitcoin narrative that matters. When bitcoin’s halving coincided with the most aggressive central bank policy of all time, it set a clear narrative framework for bitcoin as an inflationary hedge. This was captured by people like legendary hedge fund investor Paul Tudor Jones, who warned of a “great monetary inflation.” In this episode, NLW argues 1) that inflation could be a dangerous narrative to focus on too closely due to a number of countervailing deflationary forces, and 2) there are a variety of other narratives that are just as important to bitcoin, including: Censorship resistance Seizure-resistant asset Currency controls and reshoring Nations looking to escape USD system Independent banking Peaceful protest

Today on the Brief: Three Arrows holds more than 6% of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust New platform for censorship-resistant blogging Coinbase announces new token potentials as anti-surveillance hodlers flood out Today’s main topic: Why the Fed keeps denying its role in inequality Some key takeaways from yesterday’s Federal Open Markets Committee meeting: Interest rates are likely to stay near zero through 2022 Unemployment anticipated to average between 9% and 10% during last three months of 2020 Economy expected to contract 4% to 10% this year No specific discussion of yield curve control Inflation expected to be 1.0% this year and 1.5% in 2021, lower than Fed target of 2% According to Chairman Powell, inequality has nothing to do with Fed policy On this episode, NLW recaps the above and dives deeper on two of the points: Net inflation stats gloss over specifics, including food prices that have been rising at an annual rate of 17.5% The Fed’s pronounced role in exacerbating inequality by propping up artificially high asset prices, effectively locking low and middle income households out of the mechanism for economic advancement

Today on the Brief: A record week for peer-to-peer exchanges in the developing world A digital dollar gets discussed in Congress Previewing the Federal Reserve’s FOMC guidance Our main topic: A brainstorm on digital property rights Here’s a radical idea. What if by virtue of the fact that you had put so much time and effort into building a following on social media and filling that following with content you had legal claim to and distinct property rights around your corner of social media platforms? It’s wild in the context of today’s terms of service, but has significant legal precedent in the world of physical land. In this new type of deep-dive 20-minute episode we’re calling a “Breakdown Brainstorm,” Castle Island Ventures investor Nic Carter looks at: The two schools of thought around digital property rights The historical precedent for squatter’s rights What the specific example of the USA’s Westward Expansion can teach us Why this type of approach can be highly economically generative, according to economists like De Soto How John Locke’s theories provide a moral basis for the argument Why today’s platforms are akin to anti-democratic feudal lords How bitcoin provides a model and a mechanism for digital rights enforced on the protocol level rather than by a state or other external actor Find our guest online:Twitter: @nic__carterWebsite: niccarter.info

Today on the Brief: Saudi Arabia injects $13 billion in bank liquidity via blockchain. China’s state TV CCTV says Binance is still allowing crypto trading in China. MakerDAO community greenlights real world collateral. Our main topic: The “Robinhood Revolution.” The next time someone tells you crypto markets are too irrational or volatile, point them to stock markets right now. The largest 50-day rally in history Every S&P 500 stock up from 10 weeks ago Multiple bankrupt companies up more than 100% since they declared bankruptcy This is the “Robinhood Revolution,” as a horde of day traders are outperforming billionaire investors and commanding the stock market narrative. This episode looks at: Who is this new generation of investors Why they’re so active right now What they’re betting will go up Why they don’t care about earnings, balance sheets or any other fundamentals Four scenarios for how this rally could have an impact on the bitcoin and crypto industry

On today’s episode of The Breakdown, we introduce the Breakdown Brief - a look at three key topics in bitcoin and crypto. Today, the Brief covers: Brave browsers auto adding ref links to Binance.us The disconnect between Wall Street and crypto when it comes to inflation expectations A 2018 Pentagon war game including bitcoin Our featured interview is with Jake Hanrahan, founder of Popular Front - a podcast and independent media company covering underreported and irregular conflict with “no frills, no elitism.” Jake was previously an embedded reporter with Vice and has covered conflict in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, Ukraine and elsewhere. In this conversation, Jake and NLW discuss: Why Jake left Vice and decided to build an independent journalism project Why the mainstream media isn’t bad because of some political conspiracy, but because its business model doesn’t allow it to understand how real people are experiencing issues How the protests are being (mis)covered around the world Why American protests are going global What he learned covering protests in Hong Kong last year What situations people should be paying attention to around the world that they’re not right now

The Breakdown Weekly Recap looks at the key themes that shaped the week. On this week’s episode, NLW discusses: The modern significance of Tiananmen Square, and why this week’s U.S. protests show why the tools of surveillance need to be applied to states, not citizens. The importance of “narrative violations,” or fighting to see things without falling into popular but often wrong conventional wisdoms The need to resist attempts from both the left and the right to fit today’s unrest into convenient culture-war frameworks that perpetuate each group’s power. This week on The Breakdown: Monday | The Power and Peril of the 'Bitcoin Fixes This' Meme A look at what role, if any, bitcoin has to play in remaking the world that is being protested around the U.S. (and world) this week. Tuesday | Bitcoin, Cellphones and the Citizen Tools of Anti-Authoritarianism, Feat. Alex Gladstein A look at the anti-authoritarian technology stack, including where non-state money like bitcoin fits in. Wednesday | 5 Numbers That Tell the Story of Markets Right Now From the number of U.S. flights from Chinese carriers to S&P 500 growth in the tumultuous year of 1968, these (unexpected) numbers tell the story of today’s markets. Thursday | The Mirage of the Money Printer: Why the Fed Is More PR Than Policy, Feat. Jeffrey P. Snider An argument that the Fed is actually highly ineffectual due to the presence of the eurodollar shadow-banking system. Friday | The Biggest Realignment in the US-China Relationship Since Nixon, Feat. Graham Webster A 101-level primer on the history of the U.S.-China relationship, and why today’s bluster represents a fundamental shift.