Podzept - Deutsche Bank Research

We interview Daianna Karaian, Founder and CEO of Today Do This, a firm that works with Blue Chip global corporates to help them achieve specific sustainability goals. We address several big questions that corporates have about exactly how to implement sustainability processes.

We discuss the US economy, in particular what President Biden has done in his first 100 days in office, including the enormous fiscal stimulus package. Is the package politically possible as Washington looks forward to mid-term elections next year?

We discuss the key trends of digital currencies; which central banks are leading and lagging the race; the different sets of opportunities, or hurdles even, faced by different countries; and what to expect in terms of regulatory framework looking ahead. Katharina Paust-Bokrezion, Head of payments policy, Political Affairs, joins the conversation.

Being ‘asset-light’ has been Wall Street dogma for years. And no wonder. Over the last decade, US stocks with low levels of Property, Plant, and Equipment (PPE) have seen double the stock market returns of high PPE stocks. In Europe, the returns have been triple. But could it all come to an end?

A deep dive into what we are expecting from the Fed and why the market is pricing in a different path than the Fed's guidance.

A year ago, markets were in freefall. The Covid pandemic was still largely in its infancy, but investors were quickly realizing that a massive recession was looming. Fast forward to today and the conversation is very different as we contemplate if growth will run too hot, how high will inflation get and could the Fed fall behind the curve.

Listen to a podcast episode where we discuss the highlights from a recent ESG conference where sustainability leaders and asset managers discussed key ESG topics as part of focused panels and presentations.

This year's National People's Congress (NPC) will start on Friday, March 5, and will last for about 2 weeks. In this podcast we provide a preview of the key policy issues for the NPC where we expect the government will set a floor growth target at 7-7.5% for 2021, leaving sufficient room to pursue its longer-term policy priorities. The 2021 budget will likely roll back about 60% of Covid-19 related stimulus measures. Nevertheless, government spending will likely increase 7% over last year, thanks to a strong fiscal revenue outlook.

Covid-19 disruption to business has reshuffled priorities for CFOs and treasurers. They must address how to: maintain access to liquidity/credit; implement back-up procedures; create visibility to total cash in global locations; determine cash requirements in the short and medium term; and assess current exposures. Astrid Poussel, Global Corporate Coverage, Corporate Bank, joins the conversation.

Back in early December most thought the chance of Republicans losing both Georgia Senate run-off seats was pretty low. That has now happened, with a so-called blue sweep upon us. About a week until inauguration, we discuss how we think Biden’s initial 100-day+ plan might look like.

Even prior to the pandemic, there was an inevitable shift to online purchasing. But how do we ensure this widening acceptance of online buying does not backfire on the planet in the form of unsustainable delivery levels? We propose a system to bring all parties in the delivery value chain to the table, and suggest an incentive system that grades rewards with the intention of sending non-urgent deliveries to specific areas on specific days.

As the pandemic has accelerated the digital cash revolution, there are several things companies and policymakers need to do to respond.

We look at what to expect from the Biden administration and discuss the implications for the US economic outlook for 2021.

The pandemic has shown how the ‘haves’ are more resilient than the ‘have-nots’. Much of this is based on the gap between the two groups based on their access to technology. The divide in the US runs deepest along race and location (urban versus rural). To narrow this gap, we lay out our vision to develop an initiative that covers the more than half of households without proper broadband connection and a computer.

The 2020 election is now less than a week away. While all elections have implications for the economic outlook, the two candidates for this year’s contest have historically divergent views on essentially all important aspects of economic policy. In this podcast, we consider the implications for the economic outlook of the possible combinations of president and Senate.

The exponential growth of the digital economy is going to leave large chunks of minorities with little or no access to jobs. We conduct a bottom up societal study and it shows that 76% of Blacks and 62% of Hispanics could get shut out or be under-prepared for 86% of jobs in the US by 2045. If this digital racial gap is not addressed, in one generation alone, digitization could render the country’s minorities into an unemployment abyss.

The widening generational divide should be a key source of alarm for investors, financial markets and society as a whole. Young people perceive themselves as the losers on issues ranging from housing to climate change to student debt. In turn, this anger is manifesting itself into political outcomes, with elections around the world increasingly fought along generational lines.

As long as they are covered by salary protection schemes, those on low incomes have seen their paycheque relatively more insulated than those on higher incomes. Other redistributionist measures also mean the rich are likely to face a higher burden, thus reducing inequality.

The US-China Tech Cold War remains one of the biggest tail risks of the current market rally. We have conducted a top-down analysis to quantify the impact of a complete decoupling. Our study on stock price correlations with the DB Tech Cold War Index yields a surprising and counter-intuitive finding, Semiconductors. Listen to a new podcast with Apjit Walia Tech Strategist and Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research US.

Children, interruptions, loneliness, and an unsuitable workplace has left many frustrated as they attempt to work from home. We do the sums to see if businesses should subsidise their employees’ housing costs so they can save on expensive office space.

We are going through a tremendous volatile market with investors looking for stable returns. According to a few news outlets some of the quant funds have performed less well. Caio Natividade, Head of QIS Research and Sorin Ionescu, Head of QIS Structuring share their insights on common misconceptions.

A confluence of factors - a pandemic, high education costs, environmental concerns, and new instructional technology - could rapidly increase the popularity of online education. Moreover, because online platforms transcend political boundaries, top universities could gain more market share on a global level, leading to the disappearance of many lesser-known schools.

The unique nature of the pandemic shock and the wide uncertainty surrounding it, meant there was no one historical playbook that fit easily. So inevitably there were going to be some surprises. In the event, there have been many.

Machine learning, with all of their processing power, they’re able to more quickly highlight or find patterns in big data that would have otherwise been missed by human beings. Machine learning is a tool that can be used to enhance humans’ abilities to solve problems and make informed inferences on a wide range of problems, much wider than financial services for example helping diagnose diseases to coming up with solutions for global climate change.

Online food ordering (both grocery delivery and meal kits) was already seeing steady growth before covid-19. Since the outbreak, it has taken off. While some people may revert back to their old habits when the pandemic recedes, many have been introduced to the concept and will continue to enjoy the benefits.

While history shows us that it can take over two years for an aviation demand shock to return to normal, many people now forecast a permanent drop in travel, particularly for business. We argue business and personal travel will remain, however, the way people book will change the transport industry.

With European football leagues on hold, clubs are facing severe losses that will likely continue over into next season. The transfer market has also been highly disrupted. Not all clubs have shareholders with deep pockets and so there is likely to be a widening of inequality between the big and small clubs.

One of the lead features in the latest Konzept edition concerns whether the Coronavirus will end up being deflationary or inflationary. We have Robin Winkler, FX Strategist in the red corner fighting for his deflationary views and Oliver Harvey, Macro Strategist in the blue corner countering with his inflationary views. Jim Reid, Global Head of Fundamental Credit Strategy and Thematic Research moderates.

After shrugging off a historic plunge in April employment, market participants will likely need to digest further record-setting monthly declines in core CPI inflation as well as April retail sales and industrial production. However, with financial markets seemingly numb to the bad data news, Fed Chair Powell's appearance on Wednesday may overshadow what is likely to be epic weakness in this week's economic data. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist shares his insights.

It is now evident that the US economy is in the midst of the most severe contraction in the post-World War II era, one which could produce a record quarterly contraction in output in the second quarter and an unemployment rate above 17% in April. The path beyond the Q2 contraction is, however, remarkably uncertain. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief Economist, US explains.

Even with the best strikers in the world on your team, you wouldn’t play without a goalkeeper – so why run a risk asset portfolio without an effective defensive overlay? Caio Natividade, Head of QIS Research and Sorin Ionescu, Head of QIS Structuring explain.

The US economy is experiencing unprecedented disruptions that have led to a sudden stop in activity. The result will be the most dramatic decline in GDP and sharpest rise in unemployment in the post-World War II period. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist shares his insights.

There is no such thing as a free market anymore. All developed central banks have cut rates to zero and buying trillions of assets. Inflation is very low. A global liquidity trap may be in the making. In a world of international yield curve control and administered asset prices, what does that mean for FX?

We’ve witnessed an immense human tragedy as the covid-19 virus has spread around the globe. Amidst the awful numbers of people who have succumbed to the disease, we’re also now witnessing an incredibly painful economic downturn. In a new podcast episode where we look at the data, ten million Americans have made jobless claims over the last two weeks. We’re now seeing equally staggering figures come out of many other countries as economies are simply shut down.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, DBSI, provides his view on the latest US and global forecast, along with his insights on the monetary responses from the Federal Reserve.

Growth in luxury has been primarily driven by brand heat and newness, however millennials and Gen Z are increasingly demanding more quality and sustainability. No brand has yet achieved real sustainability. Those brands that will be able to incorporate newness with sustainability are the likely winners.

There were few asset classes that saw quite the stratospheric growth in 2019 like the green bond market. How is 2020 shaping up? Craig Nicol, Credit Research Analyst, shares his insights.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities, shares key highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, which details some of the most important macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.

Brexit talks are only moving onto the next phase, the UK and EU must agree the terms of a future economic relationship by the end of the status quo transition period on December 31st 2020. The next chapter in talks is expectant to generate less in the way of intraday excitement for investors, their outcome is more important for the UK's future growth prospects and asset valuations.

Marion Laboure, analyst in the Thematic Research team, discusses the 2020 Outlook in this latest Podzept episode. With some major downside risks to the global economy having been avoided, and market concerns over a possible recession diminishing Laboure believes that global growth will gain speed over the coming months and hit 3.3% this year, up from 3.1% in 2019.

Until now, cryptocurrencies have been additions, rather than substitutes, to the global inventory of money. Over the next decade, this may change. Overcoming regulatory hurdles will broaden their appeal and raise the potential to eventually replace cash.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities, shares key highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, which details some of the most important macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.

Yi Xiong, China Economist, sets out how the Chinese economy has been driven by a key theme in each of the last two decades: exports and then public investment. The next decade is set to be the consumption decade. The latent spending potential, particularly in retiring Chinese will continue to drive growth.

The past year and a half has seen an impressive slide in the global economy. Global GDP growth is expected to have ebbed to its lowest rate since the great recession this year, with some regions nearing recession and others increasingly fearing it. The primary factor is the strongly depressing effect on global trade and investment that has resulted from sharp increases in economic policy uncertainty associated with both trade policy conflicts and Brexit. Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, shares his insights.

Heating and cooling represents around half of all EU energy use and almost a quarter of all EU emissions. If European countries are serious about substantially reducing emissions, emissions from heating will need to be tackled. James Brand, Head of European Utilities Research, shares his insights.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities, shares key highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, which details some of the most important macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities, shares key highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, which details some of the most important macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.

With many countries today above the recommended prudent upper threshold for debt, there is a risk that growth will slow, creating an unsustainable and negative debt/GDP cycle. That is what Jim Reid, Global Head of Thematic Research & Credit Research at Deutsche Bank Research highlights in this latest episode of Podzept.

Companies drag their heels on climate change because many managers believe that for the planet to win, profits must fall. Luke Templeman, analyst on the new Corporate Bank Focus Research team argues the opposite using evidence from both the stockmarkets and db primary research.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities, shares key highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, which details some of the most important macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.