Podzept - Deutsche Bank Research

In our latest Conference Insights, Jonathan Jayarajan, Head of European Equity Product and Deputy Head of EMEA Equity Research, sits down with 8 of our research analysts to discuss key takeaways from Deutsche Bank’s 22nd annual Consumer Conference in Paris. Over 100 corporates and 500 institutional investors were in attendance.

In the latest Macro MATTers podcast, Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) discuss recent events moving markets. In this episode, their discussion focuses on takeaways from recent data, evidence that the neutral fed funds rate is higher, and issues related to Jay Powell’s successor as Fed chair. (Note: This podcast was recorded on June 11th after the release of the May CPI report.)

In our latest Conference Insights, David Begleiter, Nicole DeBlase, Andrew Krill and Collin Verron highlight takeaways from Deutsche Bank’s Global Industrials, Materials & Building Products Conference. The conference brought together leading executives and investors to discuss current trends and developments within key global industrial sectors. Discussions focused on current economic activity, the potential impact from tariffs and consumer demand trends.

In our latest Conference Insights, Faiza Alwy, Brian Bedell, Mark DeVries, Ben Goy, Cave Montazeri, Matt O’Connor and Bernie von-Gizycki detail key takeaways from Deutsche Bank’s Global Financial Services Conference. The conference brought together leading executives and investors to discuss key trends and developments in the financial services industry. Discussions centered on the changing regulatory landscape, macroeconomic risks, the impact of AI and the health of the consumer.

In the latest Macro MATTers podcast, Chief US Economist Matthew Luzzetti and Head of US Rates Research Matthew Raskin discuss recent events moving markets. Their discussion focuses on how the Fed’s framework could be tweaked and pressure on the long end of the US yield curve as fiscal fears are renewed. (Note: This podcast was recorded on May 28 ahead of the release of the May FOMC minutes.)

In our latest Podzept episode, Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) discuss the implications of the recent de-escalation of the trade war with China and highlight key themes from a recent client trip, particularly views on US dollar asset allocations.

The US has levied over 100% tariffs on Chinese goods after a week of upwardly escalating retaliation. Trade appears to be decoupling between the world’s first and second largest economies. Oliver Harvey, Head of EM Currency Research sits down with Yi Xiong, China Chief Economist and Mallika Sachdeva, Managing Director in Thematic Research to discuss the implications for China’s economy, global trade flows and strategic considerations for the currency.

In our latest Podzept episode, we discuss key takeaways from Deutsche Bank’s 33rd annual Media, Internet and Telecommunications conference. US Head of Research, Matthew Barnard sits down with research analysts Ben Black, Lee Horowitz, Bryan Kraft, Matthew Niknam, and Ben Soff.

With the new Trump administration moving quickly in its early days, Pam Finelli, COO and Head of Fixed Income Research, Brett Ryan, Senior US Economist, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist discuss the most important actions impacting markets and the global economy.

In our series Making Sense of Space, we discuss the market opportunity for Defense Tech and aspirations for future space stations. Dylan Taylor, Chairman and CEO of Voyager Space joins us.

In our series Making Sense of Space, we discuss the satellite communication (satcom) landscape, diving into areas such as growth drivers, regulatory framework, and competitive environment. Eva Berneke, CEO at Eutelsat joins us.

Following a decisive win for Republicans, Pam Finelli, COO and Head of Fixed Income Research, Brett Ryan, Senior US Economist and Mike Moran, Head of US Political Affairs discuss what investors should expect from President Trump’s second term.

In the latest Podzept episode from Deutsche Bank Research, Matthew Barnard sat down with Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) to get their latest views on the US economy, the path forward for the Fed and the outlook for the US consumer.

In our series Making Sense of Space, we discuss the launch industry with Adam Spice, CFO at Rocket Lab. In addition, we talk about the latest developments at the company and what qualities separate it from other “new space” upstarts.

In our series Making Sense of Space, we discuss the prospects of using AI in the space industry, particularly for analyzing imagery taken from space (Earth Observation). Patrick O’Neil, CTO at BlackSky joins us.

With the Republican national convention underway, Pam Finelli, COO and Head of Fixed Income Research, Brett Ryan, Senior US Economist and Mike Moran, Head of US Political Affairs discuss the latest policy narrative, anticipated market reactions and how investors are positioning given an evolving political landscape.

In our series Making Sense of Space, we discuss the prospects of using AI in space, particularly for data analytics that can fundamentally improve many existing capabilities. Peter Platzer, CEO at Spire Global joins us.

EU-policy experts Marion Mühlberger and Ursula Walther discuss with Chief Economist for Germany Robin Winkler what EU elections mean for policy priorities and the EU economy in the next 5-year legislative term. With less than five weeks to go until election day, the hot phase of the election campaign has begun. Policy priorities are likely to be centered around security and defense, competitiveness and enlargement. While there is consensus about priorities, financing remains the missing link.

Senior US Economist Brett Ryan and Senior International Economist Peter Sidorov discuss the latest trends in bank lending and financing conditions and their implications. In the past two years, central banks on both sides of the Atlantic have delivered their sharpest hiking cycles since the 1980s. But the economic impact of these has varied widely, opening the door for less synchronous policy as central banks contemplate cutting rates.

In our series Making Sense of Space, we discuss the prospects for Earth Observation (EO) live at our studio in NYC. Don Osborne, President and CEO at EarthDaily Analytics joins us.

In the latest Podzept episode from Deutsche Bank Research, Matthew Barnard sat down with Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) to discuss DB’s revised US economic forecast, recent hotter than expected inflation data, current expectations and pricing, and DB’s view on R-Star.

Olga Cotaga and Luke Templeman discuss Generation Z’s financial habits for spending and investing. This younger generation is different from Millennials and has embraced the trend of ‘soft living’. Yet, they combine this with hard finances. In short, Gen Z save, invest young, buy real estate quicker and appreciate risk.

In the latest Podzept episode from Deutsche Bank Research, Matthew Barnard sat down with Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) to discuss key topics surrounding the path forward for the Fed, including the magnitude and timing of interest rate cuts. Also discussed is the outlook for the Fed’s balance sheet and QT.

In our series Making Sense of Space, we discuss the rocket launch market, taking a visit to the “Wormhole” in Long Beach, California. Tim Ellis from Relativity Space joins us.

Luke Templeman and Olga Cotaga discuss the implications of ageing populations on economies, financial markets and corporate balance sheets. The thematic research analysts rebuke common misconceptions that more retirees equals to government budgets blowing out, or that there could be an equity sell-off as baby boomers switch to bonds. On top of this, they discuss why some Western countries have an underappreciated demographic advantage and why short-term ageing concerns in China may be overdone.

In our series Making Sense of Space, we discuss the rocket launch market, mainly from the European perspective where the supply shortage is most acute. Jose Manuel Rodriguez from PLD Space joins us.

In our series Making Sense of Space, we discuss the evolution of geospatial intelligence in the government, focusing on the satellite imagery aspect. Robert Cardillo, Chief Strategist and Chairman of the Board - Planet Federal, joins us.

With just under a year until the US elections, Pam Finelli, COO of Research and Head of Fixed Income Research, Brett Ryan, Senior US Economist and Mike Moran, Head of US Political Affairs discuss the unfolding narrative and navigate the anticipated policy implications, shed light on key issues at stake, and unravel the historical market reactions that investors should brace for.

Adrian Cox discusses the practical challenges of generative AI with Olga Cotaga. The thematic analysts address the three main hurdles for enterprises wanting to implement AI, how they fit into a well-worn historical pattern and how companies can begin to overcome them.

In the latest Podzept episode from Deutsche Bank Research, Matthew Barnard sat down with Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) to discuss key topics around the US economy, interest rates and the health of the consumer. More specifically, they talk through their baseline views for a first half 2024 recession, the outlook for rates, the changing slope of the yield curve, and more.

In our series Making Sense of Space, we discuss the logistics of moving around after reaching orbit. Rockets do the heavy lifting off the ground but what happens after the payload is in space? Luca Rossettini from D-Orbit joins us.

In this episode Luke Templeman provides a brief summary of the teams’ top thematic ideas for the rest of the year.

Deutsche Bank Research has just released the latest World Outlook, featuring updated views on economics and markets. They have called this edition “The Waiting Game…” because they maintain their call for a US recession in Q4 as the lags from tighter monetary policy really start to hit. That weak outlook is evident elsewhere too, and their forecasts don’t expect any G7 country to grow by more than 0.8% in 2024. However, when it comes to the long term they are very enthusiastic about the prospects of AI changing the nature of our economies in the years ahead, which could offer some optimism after a very challenging start to the decade.

Artificial intelligence is an overnight success that has been many years in the making. But where is it going next? In our latest Podzept episode, Dr Marion Laboure, Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace and Adrian Cox, analyse the details of an extensive database of AI venture capital deals and patents to anticipate what innovations will soon be arriving on our doorsteps.

Artificial intelligence offers the tantalising prospect of improving the perennial underperformance of companies with many employees.In this podcast, Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga and Adrian Cox discuss why high-staff companies tend to have a lower market capitalisation, thinner margins and lower growth rates than lower-staff ones. They analyse evidence that suggests AI could enable high-employee companies to get more value from each staff member. That may generate an outsize benefit in return on equity and potentially catalyse equity market returns in the years to come.

In our series ‘Making Sense of Space’ we discuss various aspects of the Space ecosystem. This episode will focus on Earth Observation (EO) which involves gathering information about the planet’s physical, chemical and biological systems to deliver actionable insights. In particular, we go over how radio frequency data can be used to analyze marine, aviation, and weather patterns.

Artificial intelligence is beginning to permeate our lives, but the technology and opportunities likely remain a mystery to many. In this podcast, Dr Marion Laboure, Adrian Cox and Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace look at today’s artificial intelligence landscape, its rapid growth and the new capabilities of ChatGPT and its competitors.

What happens when geo-political tensions create a sense of insecurity in corporate CEOs? One result is that some are reshoring. This applies to both manufacturing and services – both supply chains and operations. In this podcast, Luke Templeman and Olga Cotaga discuss how to identify the reshoring theme and how it has accelerated dramatically over the last couple years. In addition, they consider some of the countries that are best placed to capitalise on the trend and how investors can think about the effects on asset allocation.

How do we identify the key themes that are driving markets and economies, and also incorporate their impact into investment and corporate decisions? Adrian Cox asks Luke Templeman about his latest report ’16 themes driving markets and economies’. It highlights the top themes and explains how applying a common framework across different themes is necessary to assess how those themes can affect each other. “You can read something written by intelligent people on theme A and then theme B, and they might make sense individually, but they may overlap in ways that are mutually exclusive. That’s what really interests me”, says Templeman.

House prices are cooling off around the world after the boom years of historically low interest rates and a pandemic race for space. Countries like Sweden, Canada and Australia, which had the biggest gains, heaviest household debt and highest proportion of variable rate mortgages, are most exposed. In the latest episode of Podzept, Michael Hsueh, FX Strategist and author of the G10 Housing Monitor, Jon Bell, Head of the European Construction and House Building Research, and Adrian Cox, Thematic Strategist, discuss the outlook.

In our new series ‘Making Sense of Space’ we discuss various aspects of the Space ecosystem. The third episode dives into the future of space stations and habitats. Edison Yu, lead on research coverage of Space & Aerial Mobility, speaks with Amir Blachman, Chief Investment Officer of Axiom Space.

Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economics Research, Matt Luzzetti, Chief US Economist and Mark Wall, Chief European Economist, discuss the world outlook 2023 as we find ourselves at a defining moment for the global economy. Inflation is running at multi-decade highs, central banks are pursuing their most aggressive tightening cycle in a couple generations, and a recession is now increasingly expected in the US and Europe. As 2023 nears, there is a growing consensus that it is shaping up will be the third-worst year for global growth so far in the 21st century, behind only the pandemic year in 2020 and the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009.

In our new series ‘Making Sense of Space’ we discuss various aspects of the Space ecosystem. The second episode dives into connectivity constellations and how optical/laser terminals could boost performance. Edison Yu, lead on research coverage of Space & Aerial Mobility, speaks with Bulent Altan, CEO of Mynaric and also an early SpaceX employee.

Perry Kojodjojo and Oliver Harvey from Deutsche Bank Emerging Market Research discuss the recently published EM Currency and Local Markets Handbook. The new and revitalised handbook covers over 30 local EM markets in detail, covering liquidity, market structure and regulations in FX, local bonds and IRS, as well as targeted descriptions of monetary policy and market participants. The Handbook is designed to be an essential tool for institutional and corporate clients in navigating an increasingly complex and fragmented EM regulatory and macro environment, with new sections on unconventional monetary policy by EM central banks, new markets such as Kenya and Pakistan and a discussion of the evolving EM market landscape.

In recent weeks, markets have been very volatile as they digest announcements from global policymakers and central bank responses to persistently elevated inflation. In the latest episode of Podzept, Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, and Matthew Raskin, Head of US Rates Research, discuss their views on the outlook for Fed policy and the US yield curve.

Europe is in the middle of an energy crisis. It’s grappling with two big challenges at the moment – urgently weaning itself off Russian energy, particularly gas, and moving to a cleaner energy economy. At times, those two goals seem to be in opposition to each other.

In our new series ‘Making Sense of Space’ we discuss various aspects of the Space ecosystem. The first episode kicks off with the rocket launch market. Edison Yu, lead on research coverage of Space & Aerial Mobility, speaks with Peter Beck, Founder and CEO of Rocket Lab, one of the leading launch companies in the world.

New Podzept Podcast. The big bust in share prices of Alternative Food stocks has echoes of the dot.com boom & bust in 2000. Yet, just as the bursting of the tech bubble did not stop the inevitable development and adoption of technology, Deutsche Bank Research see the Food Tech revolution as likely continuing despite the cooling of last year’s market euphoria. Olga Cotaga and Luke Templeman, both Thematic Research Analysts, discuss the growth potential in the industry as it continues to simmer, but with the potential to change food as we know it.

Assessing the state of the US economy has become very tricky recently with various datapoints sending conflicting signals about the underlying strength. While 2.7 million new jobs were added in the first half of 2022 with the unemployment rate staying at 3.6%, consumer sentiment is plumbing historical lows and forward-looking growth indicators have weakened. Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research, US speaks to Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, to shed light on what is going on.

Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, discuss how the US economy is the furthest away from the Fed’s targets in forty years. This gap, captured by persistently elevated inflation and a historically tight labour market, is likely to necessitate a more aggressive response from the Fed that ultimately leads to a recession by the end of next year.