Podzept - Deutsche Bank Research

Listen to Oliver Harvey, Macro Strategist, discuss the latest on Brexit. The UK government intends to prorogue parliament from 10th September to 14th October when the government will hold a Queen's Speech. This limits the ability of MPs to table legislation to prevent no deal Brexit and signals that the Johnson government may be prepared to break constitutional precedent to take the UK out of the EU without a deal. At the same time, it could crystallise opposition to a no deal Brexit this week in the House of Commons leading to a unity government.

Two decades ago, newspaper editors were told the internet age meant they had to give away content for free, create click-bait, and support it all with any advertising they could find. It hasn’t turned out that way. Fears of fake news, the shift to quality, and the lack of patience for distraction has led to growing numbers of subscribers at some of the world’s best-known mastheads. Yet, the shift is not complete. Communications and 5G technology are likely to have five impacts on the news media: the return of regional reporting with new funding models, less focus on speed, a reduction in the number of news sources people read, the acceptance of automation, and the return of television news, in a curated format.

The antennae and boxes, about the size of a handbag, have become more visible in New York over the last few years. They sit atop street lights, buildings, and other convenient locations. They are part of the ShotSpotter system and they listen for gunshots. When a shot is fired, the sensors can triangulate its location to within 25 metres. It then immediately sends an audio file to a support team. A review takes place using both machine learning and human input to determine if the sound was a real gunshot or something else that sounds similar, such as a firework. If determined to be real, the police are notified. They can then arrive at the location already knowing how many shots were fired and whether the shooter is moving. Luke Templeman, Analyst on the Thematic Research team, explores what it would be like living in a ‘Smart City’.

If we are to believe the prognostications about its future impact, 5G certainly occupies a crucial geopolitical dimension. The ability to control the Internet of Things via vastly reduced latency and higher speed is a serious weapon in the hands of an adversary. Peter Garber, Global Strategist, outlines three possible main objectives of the Trump administration.

Tiffany Kanaga, US and Nizla Naizer, EMEA, two retail analysts, offer some food for thought around the rapidly evolving grocery industry. From click & collect to at home delivery to meal kits to other very nascent options like autonomous vehicles, there’s an explosion of more convenient ways by which your supermarket is trying to sell you bananas.

For the first time ever the Fed is undertaking a thorough academic review of its policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. The reviewers are some 30 academic experts on monetary policy and macroeconomics. Listen to Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, discussing the background to the review, the low-rate monetary policy and what a downturn could mean for financial stability.

Chief US Economist Matthew Luzzetti shares insights on the current global interest rate environment and the challenge that low inflation plays in efforts to support the economy when needed.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities, shares key highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, which details some of the most important macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.

Factor investing has become popular across asset classes, but interestingly less so in Credit markets. Listen to Caio Natividade, Head of Cross Asset Quantitative Research, Jose Gonzales, Cross Asset Quantitative Researcher and Richard Phelan, Head of European Credit Research, discuss why credit has fallen behind and how the team has developed a framework for factor investing in this particular asset class.

Global high-net worth wealth grew by 4 percent in 2018. This growth is far below past years as a more challenging market environment negatively affecting asset performance. Wealth Management business valuations decreased by more than 20% in 2018. Kai Upadek, Head of Wealth Management, Oliver Wyman and Kinner Lakhani, Head of European Equity Research & European Banks Strategist, Deutsche Bank discuss the outlook.

The 8th annual survey of global prices and living standards from various countries and cities around the world is out! In this podcast Jim Reid, Global Head of Fundamental Credit Strategy and Thematic Research, highlights the cities that have seen the biggest change not only over the last year but also over the last five years.

The US government raised tariffs on USD 200 bn of imports from China on May 10. Michael Spencer, Asia Pacific Chief Economist, discusses how much pain this, and the five tariff announcements last year, causes the US and Chinese economies.

China's USD 12-trillion stock market is a vast and complicated panoply of different share types across a wide variety of markets, exchanges and share classes. With the rising role of A-shares amongst international emerging markets indices, understanding the market dynamics of China's equity markets will be increasingly critical. Listen to Will Stephens, Head of Asia Synthetic Equity and Derivatives Research and co-head of Asia Pacific Equity Strategy.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, shares key highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, which details some of the most important macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.

The Indian consumer sector has been a stock market darling, outperforming the Sensex by over 25 percentage points over the last two years. What are the megatrends to drive growth in the next five years? Listen to Mihir Shah, Analyst on the Consumer Staples team in India, discuss his findings.

Over the last 12 months sportswear brand shares have risen 30 per cent. Listen to Jaina Mistry, analyst on Deutsche Bank’s European Sporting Goods and Luxury team, and Paul Trussell, US Apparel & Food Retail analyst discuss the market optimism despite concerns about global growth.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, shares key highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, which details some of the most important macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.

April 1st marked an important milestone of China’s financial market as Chinese Yuan denominated bonds will be included in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index. Linan Liu, Greater China Rates & FX Strategist, discusses how its inclusion will affect China’s domestic market, the Yuan and why it makes sense for global investors to invest in RMB bonds.

Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating? Listen to Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, reviewing his paper presented at the 2019 US Monetary Policy Forum. The paper addresses the Phillips curve in the US, which predicts that when unemployment drops inflation will rise due to competition for labour and higher wages.

Jim Reid, Head of Thematic and Fundamental Credit Research and Kinner Lakhani, Head of EMEA Equity Research and Head of the European Bank Research analyses the weaknesses of Europe’s banking sector and suggests possible remedies.

Starting this month Torsten Slok, Chief International Economist, will share key highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, which details some of the most important macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.

Kevin Körner, Senior Economist, discusses how the outcome of the EU elections and the composition of the new Parliament will significantly influence the nomination and election of the next President of the European Commission (EC). The election of the Commission President will be particularly challenging this year for three reasons.

So how will we consume music in the years to come? How will streaming develop across the world? And what will happen to the major music labels? Listen to Laurie Davison, European Media & Online Analyst, Han Joon Kim, APAC Internet Analyst and Lloyd Walmsley, US Internet Analyst discussing the next evolution of streaming.

Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, analyses the three biggest risks on the minds of both policy makers and investors: escalating trade conflict, Brexit and a China slowdown.

Jim Reid, Global Head of Fundamental Credit Strategy and Thematic Research, explores how unique events, waves of populism and social unrest have often occurred through history. As far back as the French Revolution, such episodes were regularly associated with economic crisis, concerns over national identity, and fundamental dissatisfaction at the governing class.

Kevin Koerner, Senior Economist explores how Germany’s post-millennials will struggle to remember a time before Angela Merkel was Chancellor. Following her announcement she will not contest the next election, we examine what Merkel’s period in office has meant for Germany and the implications moving forward.

Andy Moniz, Chief Data Scientist, dbDIG discusses how artificial intelligence has now grown to the point that it can forecast some market effects of political events. Deutsche Bank’s Alpha-DIG platform uses machine learning to identify the extent of various political risks and then quantify their intensity.

Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research interviews Frank Kelly, Managing Director and Head of Governement & Public Affairs Americas to assess the implications with the US facing a period of divided government following the mid-term elections.

Zhiwei Zhang, Chief Economist & Head of Equity Strategy, China discusses trade talks between the US and China, meanwhile China has begun to invest considerable resources into its relationship with Europe, Japan, and other countries.

Peter Garber, Senior Advisor to Deutsche Bank Research, discusses how ever since the advent of steam power, grand infrastructure projects have dramatically reduced the cost of transportation, fostering the internal development of many countries.

Himanshu Porwal, Macro Strategist, and Quinn Brody, Macro Strategist review recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's outlook for 2019.

Andreas Bruckner, Equity Strategist, on how ESG investing may be subject to a wider array of macro fluctuations than initially meets the eye.

Should investors care that Samsung’s ‘scope one and two’ carbon emissions are 150 times higher than those of Apple even though the companies have similar revenue? Caroline Cook, Equity Analyst, says - no. Yet too many ESG investors still incorrectly compare ‘scope one and two’ data purely because it is the most widely disclosed. That is a mistake.

It seems odd that nine out of ten of the world’s largest fund managers claim to have a responsible investment mandate, yet only two-fifths admit they systematically consider ESG factors when assessing a stock’s fair value. One problem is that traditional ESG ranking systems are backwards looking. Jan Rabe, ESG Analyst explains.

Tim Rokossa, Autos Analyst, explains how automation lies at the heart of the drive away from fossil fuels, not just by helping technology in its own right, but as an accelerator of utilisation and uptake.

Investors tend to fawn over the automation-related efficiency gains achieved in the car industry. But it is easy to make the mistake of thinking this success story is easily replicable in other industrial settings says Felicitas von-Bismarck, Capital Goods Analyst.