NAB Morning Call

Monday 6th September 2021Non-farm payrolls grew well below market expectations I the US on Friday, and are certainly not the substantial progress the Fed has been looming for. Today on The Morning Call NAB’s Tapas Strickland looks at the market response to the payrolls numbers, and other signs that the global recovery might be slowing. Is it just a transitory phase? With that in mind, what will the RBA do about tapering its bond buying, and will the ECB still ease off its purchase under its PEPP? Both meet this week, and the Fed’s Beige Book is out midweek to, to help provide some colour on the state of the US economy right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd September 2021There seems to be a lot resting on tonight’s non-farm payrolls numbers from the US. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend what the reaction will be if the numbers come in softer or stronger than anticipated? The weekly jobless claims overnight were encouraging, showing the lowest number of new claims since the pandemic began. Whilst equities and bonds have been relatively subdued in the wait, there’s even more movement in currencies, with the Aussie dollar managing to climb back over 74 US cents. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd September 2021The ADP employment numbers in the US normally play second fiddle to the non-farm payrolls, but they are out a day earlier, and overnight they only came half way to meeting expectations. NAB’s Gavin Friend says they rarely show any correlation with Friday’s numbers, but they do reflect concerns about growth inhibited by supply chain disruption. The ISM numbers also reported a reduction in employment. On today’s podcast we also look at yesterday’s GDP numbers for Australia, which were a big surprise, but less relevant with most of the population now in lockdown with no clear end date in sight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 1st September 2021Markets have lost their optimism overnight. China’s PMIs came in softer than expected and Canada’s GDP, expected to grow, actually fell. Add falling consumer confidence in the US and there;s plenty of numbers for those looking at the glass half full. Inflation reared its ugly head again too, with Europe’s CPI read much more than anticipated, which could present a headache for the ECB, who had signalled that their emergency bond buying would continue through to next year. Ina amongst all of this, the Aussie and Kiwi dollars rose. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s telling as to how much pessimism and bad news was already priced into both these currencies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 31st August 2021It’s been a quiet session overnight and NAB’s Tapas Strickland says its likely to be a quiet week in the run up to non-farm payrolls on Friday, which will give us all a clearer understanding on the speed of the US jobs recovery. The continued high COVID case numbers, a drop in air travel and the threat of an EU ban on non-essential travel from the US haven’t dented market enthusiasm, with the S&P reaching yet another record high. Locally today more GDP partials, which should give us enough data to determine whether tomorrows Q2 GDP number will be negative or positive. China’s PMI numbers will be watched keenly, whilst Chinese authorities will be keeping an eye on computer gamers! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 30th August 2021The Fed chair Jerome Powell didn’t indicate any timing for tapering, as we predicted several times last week on The Morning Call. Yet the markets still reacted. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what was said that was interpreted as a more dovish stance than expected. Can the markets maintain their optimistic outlook with a more cautious Fed, and with some data suggesting growth might be slowing. With NSW recording its highest infection rate so far yesterday, and Victoria staying in lockdown beyond Thursday, can the Australian dollar hold the gains it made late last week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th August 2021Market sentiment has been hit by the explosions in Kabul this morning, but NAB’s David de Garis says the response has been fairly limited. It certainly hasn’t knocked currencies and equities out of their trading ranges. No, the real focus today will be on what Jerome Powell says at tonight’s virtual Jackson Hole Symposium. Even though more hawkish members of the Fed are pushing for tapering sooner rather than later, it’s still likely that Powell will retain a wait and see approach. There’s still too much uncertainty to assume jobs will keep bouncing back at the rate we saw in the last non-farm payrolls. The next report is only a week away. Whilst the NSW Premier talks about easing restrictions, the national cabinet meets today to nut out a COVID strategy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 26th August 2021Market optimism continued overnight, with US equities again hitting new highs and commodities climbing sharply too. That's helped the Aussie dollar again today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the sentiment is being driven by infection rates starting to subside in the US. Phil Dobbie asks how fragile this optimism could be, if number were to rise again. The ECB’s Philip Lane painted a positive picture, suggesting the Delta variant won’t impact the European recovery story because fatalities and serious illness have been contained by the vaccine. He also indicated, whether through PEPP or another vehicle, they’ll be providing favourable financing conditions through to next March, at least. It’s very different to the direction being taken by the Fed, but more on that in tomorrow’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 25th August 2021The tide of optimism seems to have set in, with another day of rising commodity prices and a strengthening Aussie dollar. Rising iron ore prices and zero new cases in China have also helped the Aussie, as the country gets to grips with life with COVID after lockdown. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says politicians are becoming more explicit about living with the virus, with Gladys Berejiklian expected to announce on Thursday some easing measures for those vaccinated. In New Zealand a rate hike in October is very likely, with the RBNZ signalling that the delay was to do with the timing of the lockdown and little more. Australian construction work data for Q2 is out today – if the number undershoots expectations, it could be enough to push Q2 GDP into negative territory. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 24th August 2021There’s been a swift turn in market sentiment, with US equities pushing new highs and oil bouncing back sharply. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there are early signs that the rise in COVID cases in the US might have peaked, whilst the official approval of the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccines might encourage more people to come forward for the jab. PMIs told a less positive story, with services growth slowing in the US and, for now, Europe seemingly showing more growth. Amongst all the commotion, bond markets remaining quiet, waiting for any hint of policy direction from Jerome Powell at this Friday’s virtual Jackson Hole symposium. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 23rd August 2021Equities recovered in the US at the end of last week as markets responded to comments from Robert Kaplan, President of the Dallas Fed. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the FOMC member has changed his hawkish stance, now admitting the Delta variant was dampening demand and that could slow the speed of tapering by the central bank. In Asia it’s a different story, with equities hit by further evidence of increased regulation, mixed with the slowdowns associated with a zero COVID approach that is hitting supply and production. Locally, of course, rising infection numbers and extended lockdowns will continue to hurt the Aussie economy. Today PMIs for the Eurozone, the UK and Australia will give an indication of the relative rate of recovery around the world, although possibly, a little out of date given how quickly the global situation is changing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th August 2021There are more concerns over the global growth story, with commodity prices falling and the Aussie dollar one of the hardest hit currencies this morning. NAB’s David de Garis says China’s growth is one of the biggest concerns. Phil Dobbie asks whether expectations were set too high. COVID case rises continue to play on uncertainty, with another report showing how the efficacy of vaccines can quickly deteriorate, hence the need for booster shots. Debates over the time of the Fed’s tapering continues, but it’s unlikely we’ll hear more at Jackson Hole next week. Aussie employment numbers yesterday might have surprised on the upside, but it wasn’t as strong as the headline would suggest and, in any case, it won’t last with lockdowns continuing. Once again, COIVD cases for NSW, Victoria and NZ will be the most important numbers of the day today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th August 2021The RBNZ didn’t push interest rates up yesterday, in light of the national lockdown. NAB’s David de Garis says the decision has been pushed back to October, all being well. It all depends on COVID numbers of course. Australia’s jobs numbers today are less relevant than usual given that they only covered the start of the NSW lockdown – the real numbers of concern will be infection rates. The FOMC minutes highlighted the divide that exists in the Fed on the speed of tapering, with Bullard suggesting tapering should be pushed back to next year, but finished in time for a rate hike later in the year. All this is putting markets on hold, with shares taking a knock and bond yield hardly moving. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th August 2021With New Zealand in lockdown will the RBNZ still push ahead with its expected rate rise today? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says central banks take a mid-term view, and the inflation and housing pressures remain, so it’s likely they will stick with the plan, but by no means certain. US markets took a confidence hit as retail sales and the NAHB housing index both came in much lower than expected. There was further evidence of rising costs, which were also reflected in the UK’s employment numbers yesterday. Today UK inflation data is out, plus Australia’s wage price index, and the FOMC minutes. And that RBNZ decision. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 17th August 2021Markets remain unsure as to the speed of the global recovery, but there’s mounting evidence that the full extent of the rebound will be delayed. That’s obviously the case in Australia, but the US we reported on Friday’s falling consumer sentiment, overnight the Empire State manufacturing index underwhelmed. This will increase the focus on US retail sales today. Overnight, though, the response has been to data from China, where retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment – were all weaker than anticipated, with the unemployment rate ticking up a little too. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through NAB’s revised forecast for China’s growth. Locally the RBA minutes are out today, but they are somewhat out of date, given the change in circumstances. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th August 2021The US dollar lost a lot of ground on Friday, with Treasury yields falling, both on the back of a much weaker than expected consumer confidence report in the US. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this is the lowest read since the pandemic began. So, will treasury yields bounce back? Supply concerns have been exacerbated by the temporary closure of one of the world’s busiest container ports, after just one COVID case. Could a zero-COVID policy from China lead to much more disruption in coming months? Locally lockdowns look set to continue for longer, but the expectation is that the economy will bounce back quickly afterwards, provided we don’t see a significant rise in unemployment. Activity numbers from China today will give an indication of the extent of the slowdown in the recovery of the global economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th August 2021There was very little movement in the markets overnight, with thing trading during the northern summer, compounded by any significant news. Bond yields have edged higher, with another successful auction, whilst equities have ground higher, with new highs for the S&P. NAB’s Gavin Friend says we’re at the point of the month when things quieten down. Even news of more regulation from China did little to impact markets. UK GDP was strong and US jobless claims fell, but these, and other data points overnight, came as no surprise to anyone. So a quiet day. Enjoy it while it lasts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th August 2021US CPI eased in July. NAB’s David de Garis says it was helped by less pressure on used car prices and airline fares, whilst food prices remain elevated. It means the Fed can focus on reaching their employment target, whatever that target is. In a speech overnight Raphael Bostic suggested it wasn’t just about hitting full employment, it was also about fixing the inequality brought about by the pandemic. Meanwhile, the market is sold on the idea of tapering starting sometime in the next few months. At home, consumer confidence fell, but optimism is greater amongst those who have had the jab. UK GDP numbers are out today and will be better than last time, simply because it covers a period when lockdowns eased. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th August 2021Markets are a little more optimistic today, but there seems little rhyme nor reason. NAB’s Ray Attrill says oil has bounced back, seemingly ignoring yesterdays concerns about slowing demand from China in light of COVID cases and lockdowns, even though the situation is only getting worse. The NAB Business Survey demonstrates the extent of the situation in Australia. Could a protracted lockdown see the RBA reverse its decision to introduce tapering next month? Generally, markets are looking for direction. Even the passing of Biden’s Infrastructure Bill through the senate has seen very little response. Will the US CPI numbers today provide some direction? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th August 2021The UN chief has called the latest IPCC report on climate change “a code red for humanity”. The shorter timeframes for rising temperatures has not had any market influence. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, instead, the focus has been split between how quickly the Fed will introduce tapering, and concerns over whether the recovery will slow, with rising cases and more lockdowns. Oil has fallen further as flight numbers fall and the anticipation of less travel for the remainder of the year increases. Today the NAB Business Survey will reflect the lockdowns in Sydney and beyond, which Tapas points out, are likely to extend beyond the assumptions in the RBA’s latest forecasts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 9th August 2021There was a strong market reaction to Friday’s non-farm payrolls in the US, which NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says was at the top end of a broad range of expectations. The question is, does this represent the substantial progress that the FOMC is looking for before tapering bond purchases. It depends on which Fed member you are listening to. We’ve seen the response to the jobs numbers in equity markets, bond yields and the strengthening of the US dollar. That’s contributed to a weaker Aussie and Kiwi dollar, which could take another hit from weaker trade data from China over the weekend. So, will the Aussie recover? Protracted lockdowns will have an impact, with NAB at odds with the RBA on near term growth. How quick the recovery, obviously depends on vaccine rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th August 2021I amongst the mixed data from the US – including signs that the job recovery is slowing - and the varied opinions of central bankers, take a look at what’s happening in Germany. Factory orders came bouncing back in June and Google mobility data is showing most people are heading back to work. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this adds to the strong GDP numbers last week. The extent to which these surpassed US growths hasn’t been given enough consideration, he says. Also today, the Bank of England ups its inflation forecast to 4% by the end of the year and all eyes will be on the non-farms payrolls data tonight – with a wide range of predictions, so take your pick! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 5th August 2021The New Zealand unemployment rate has fallen sharply, adding more to the expectation that the RBNZ will lift interest rates next month. NAB’s David de Garis says the markets have now priced it in at more than 100 percent. US jobs, however, are taking longer to recover. The ADP employment report saw far fewer new jobs than expected. Although all eyes are on the more credible non-farm payrolls number on Friday, the ADP report did knock the S&P off its record high. Today, the Bank of England meets, although we can’t expect them to be signalling anything of significance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 4th August 2021Central banks seem to be taking a very optimistic view of the rate of recovery right now. The RBA has decided it will push ahead with its tapering of asset purchases, despite the protracted Sydney lockdown. The RBNZ’s Governor Orr has as good as said that the central bank will lift interest rates next month. The direction taken by the US Fed will be dependent on jobs numbers, making the non-farm payrolls data all that more important at the end of the week. Meanwhile US equities have bounced back as investors take stock of strong corporate earnings. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says 88% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive earnings surprise for Q2. Of concern, though, are rising infection rates in China. Mass cancellation of flights has been influential in the fall in oil prices again overnight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 3rd August 2021There was a sharp drop in Treasury yields soon after the release of the ISM Manufacturing numbers from the US. The expectation was that they would rise slightly, but they actually fell. Although still in expansionary territory NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it adds to the narrative that the speed of recovery is slowing. It was compounded further with weaker Caixin PMI manufacturing numbers from China. At home the RBA is fully expected to reverse its plans to start tapering its bond purchases from September, as NSW focuses more on increasing the vaccine rate as the only way out of lockdown. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 2nd August 2021Iron ore prices fell below U$200 on Friday as China indicated that they would be cutting demand. It hit the Aussie dollar on Friday, which was already suffering as virus cases mounted in several parts of the country and no immediate escape plan for the Sydney lockdown. Today, Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether the Aussie dollar could fall to 73 cents again this week, or lower, and whether that’s such a problem, given it has spent much of the last few years below that level. Also today, how Friday’s data showed that Europe is gaining momentum over the US on the recovery race. And mixed messaging from the Fed, but tapering is not likely to start anytime soon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 30th July 2021Markets have had a chance to absorb the dovish sentiment from the Fed yesterday and take stock of mixed data overnight. On the surface US GDP numbers looked weaker than anticipated, but a chunk of that was influenced by lower inventory and trade numbers. NAB’s Gavin Friend explains how consumption and investment was actually much higher than anticipated. He says we can expect a strong GDP read for the Euro are later today, where vaccine levels are picking up. Markets have also been soothed from conciliatory messages from China regarding overseas investors. The Aussie dollar showed slower growth on the back of a weaker US dollar, as the question remains, how long will the Sydney lockdown really last? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 29th July 2021There was a tame response to the FOMC statement this morning, but a more marked reaction during the press conference that followed. NAB’s David de Garis says the turning point was Powell’s remark that there was some ground to cover when it came to reaching full employment. Also on today’s podcast, discussion on yesterday’s Aussie CPI numbers, and how the widening trade deficit has seen a downgrade to US GDP expectations later today. And the US infrastructure bill might finally be voted on, but we’ll explain why markets are unlikely to be too interested. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 28th July 2021Whilst US equities edged to all-time highs, the real yields on US Treasuries sank to new lows. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how expectations for tapering by the Fed could be pushed back, as the recovery slows. The take-up of vaccines in the US isn’t helping, with the seven-day average of daily jabs now at the lowest level since early January. In the UK infection rates are falling – but still very high – but hospitalisations are increasing. Whilst in the Sydney region lockdowns are likely to last longer, with almost 400k people claiming disaster payments, according to today’s AFR. So, plenty of reason for caution, and the waiting game is on for the response from the Fed later this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 27th July 2021Whilst US equities edged to all-time highs, the real yields on US Treasuries sank to new lows. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how expectations for tapering by the Fed could be pushed back, as the recovery slows. The take-up of vaccines in the US isn’t helping, with the seven-day average of daily jabs now at the lowest level since early January. In the UK infection rates are falling – but still very high – but hospitalisations are increasing. Whilst in the Sydney region lockdowns are likely to last longer, with almost 400k people claiming disaster payments, according to today’s AFR. So, plenty of reason for caution, and the waiting game is on for the response from the Fed later this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 26th July 2021Last week markets were pulled between concerns over the rise of the Delta variant and the encouragement of strong corporate earnings data. This week could go either way, with significant earnings to come, and mixed opinions on the direction the virus will take. In today’s podcast NAB’s Tapas Strickland looks at the latest vaccine efficacy numbers and the influence on the Aussie dollar. Which was one of the biggest losers last week. We also look at the PMIs from Friday shows, which suggest Europe might have the edge on the US for growth. And the American economy has something else to contend with, slower population growth. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd July 2021Equities have been helped by earnings results and a little less COVID concern. On the macro front US jobless claims rose unexpectedly, but NAB’s Gavin Friend says a lot of it will be to do with seasonal adjustments related to the annual auto-tooling shutdowns. The ECB held its first meeting since it’s new straight 2 percent target, but little will change in the short term. The UK economy could be hit by track and trace ‘pings’ that are spreading like wildfire. Aussie payrolls numbers yesterday reflected the current shutdowns, which are likely to go on for much longer. Over the water New Zealand has its first day without QE – we look at the market response. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 22nd July 2021The rebound from the COVID concerns at the start of the week is now complete, with bond yields rebounding further overnight, equities bouncing higher and commodities on the rise. NAB’s David de Garis talks about how businesses are seeing the recovery happen, even where he is in London. Globally, it seems the expectation is that COIVD won’t hinder a global recovery, particularly as vaccine numbers rise. So what does that mean for the ECB today, particularly if growth is expected to rise and their outlook remains dovish? And Brexit is back, struggling over the NI border issue that was never resolved, perhaps because there isn’t an answer. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 21st July 2021Curiously, much of the negative market reaction at the start of the week has seen a reversal in the last 24 hours, even though the reasons for the concern remain. The Delta variant continues to spread, vaccination rates have slowed, and case numbers are rising. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if he can explain the switch in direction, with the response far stronger for equities than it is for bond traders. They also discuss the next moves for the RBA, with more lockdowns across Australia, and what to expect from the ECB tomorrow. Plus, Aussie retail sales numbers are out today. However poor they are for June, we know July will be worse. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 20th July 2021There’s not been a lot of economic data around, but markets have dipped sharply on the back of rising COVID cases. NABs Tapas Strickland says its being driven by the preponderance of the Delta variant. Oil is also down, in part because of the OPEC deal discussed yesterday, but also expectations of a slower global economic recovery and less international travel. Further tensions with China are adding to the uncertainty, with the US now implicating Chinese nations in the hacking of Microsoft servers earlier in the year. This will add to the tensions between Australia and China. A quiet day today, with the RBA minutes from a meeting that won’t have reflected the growing global concerns, which could delay the bank’s decision of when to taper asset purchases. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 19th July 2021OPEC reached a deal of sorts over the weekend which will see supplies increase incrementally over the next few months. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril said markets had been expecting a deal of this magnitude, so it has done little (so far) to oil prices. Meanwhile, COVID caution continues to rein over the markets, with a stronger US dollar and a weaker Aussie. US retail numbers were strong on Friday, but we discuss Google data which suggests store visits are plateauing below pre-COVID levels in most parts of the world. New Zealand’s strong inflation numbers at the end of last week cemented the likelihood of action by the RBNZ, and this week will be the ECB’s first change to issue guidance reflecting its new strategy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th July 2021Markets returned to a more cautious outlook overnight, with US equities losing ground and bond yields falling. As NAB’s David de Garis explains, its difficult to find any particular reason for the change in sentiment, other than a return to concerns over COVID and the speed of economic recovery. There wasn’t anything in day two of Jerome Powell’s testimonies to cause concern and US data overnight was largely positive. The Aussie dollar felt the impact of the mood of the day, even though there was a very strong set of employment numbers yesterday. The UK’s employment numbers told a different story. And data from China suggest the slowdown is not as bad as feared, but likely to be enough to spark more stimulus from the PBoC. Today, the NZ CPI read will be the focus of attention. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 15th July 2021There’s a world of difference in the approaches being taken by central banks in response to the COVID recovery. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through some of them, starting with the RBNZ announcing bond buying will end next week, leaving the door open for rate rises as soon as August. The Bank of Canada is also tapering its asset purchases. Yet, as inflation rises, the Fed’s Jerome Powell has been reiterating to Congress that tapering will not start anytime soon. The UK also saw inflation rise yesterday, but the BoE is not in any hurry to change direction, neither is the RBA. Who’s got the right idea? Today we will see jobs numbers for Australia and the UK, plus the weekly unemployment claims for the US, and a heap of data from China, including Q2 GDP. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 14th July 2021US inflation has surprised again. It was expected to ease back after the 5% jump last month, but this time its higher still. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this will be enough for the Fed to be forced into tapering sooner than intended, or is it still transitory? As luck would have it, Jerome Powell is talking to Congress later today, so maybe we’ll get an inkling of a change in timelines. Also today, decisions from RBNZ and the Bank of Canada, two central banks in more of a hurry than most. Plus, China’s trade numbers, the NAB business survey and the Bank of England’s stability review. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 13th July 2021US stocks hit new highs as Q2 earnings season kicks off. NAB’s said it also reflects a recovery from Asia emanating from China’s easing of reserve requirements. China will be a focus today, too, with the release of trade data. US CPI is also out today. Could a combination of weaker earnings reports, a fall in trade to and from China and/or a higher-than-expected CPI dampen the mood? The other significant news overnight has been Christine Lagarde’s Bloomberg interview were she spoke about PEPP continuing in some form from 2022. Will we see central banks taking a more dovish stance as COVID numbers continue to raise concern? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 12th July 2021For most of last week markets grew increasingly cautious about the spread of the Delta variant and fears of further lockdowns in major economies, Australia included. On Friday, though, that all changed, with bond yields rising, equities breaking new highs, the US dollar back on the rise, but the Aussie also doing well along with other commodity currencies. This morning, NAB’s Ray Attrill looks for reasons behind the shift in sentiment, including better credit numbers from China and a more extensive and sharper than expected cut in the reserve requirement ratio for Chinese banks. So, has the mood shifted? It’s a busy week ahead, including US CPI numbers, which markets have been particularly sensitive too recently. Who’s to say caution doesn’t swiftly return on the back of more virus news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 9th July 2021Is it below 2 percent or at 2 percent? The ECB has made subtle changes to its inflation target, but has flatly rejected the Fed approach of average inflation targeting. NAB’s David de Garis explains what’s changed in the ECB’s approach. Plus words from Philip Lowe yesterday about the RBA’s reluctance to shift policy until unemployment is (much) lower. Plus, oil up as US supplies fall, and the reflation trade takes a breather as COVID concerns rise. Listen in for the detail. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 8th July 2021The FOMC minutes were released this morning, but a more significant central bank release could be out later in the day. Christine Lagarde is said to be released the outcome of the ECB’s extensive strategy review. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks to Phil Dobbie about what’s likely to be in it and how much of it could be market changing. The Fed minutes meanwhile, had little impact on the markets, which continue to exercise caution as further data suggests a slowdown in the speed of the global economic recovery. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 7th July 2021Bond yields have fallen markedly as markets adopt a more cautious air. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s being driven by a number of factors, including weaker than expected ISM services numbers from the US and factory orders from Germany. The main concern in the ISM was the employment data which dropped below 50, reinforcing the belief that there is a constraint in the availability of labour. A more controlling influence from China, the growth of a more virulent COIVD strain and the uncertainty over an OPEC deal have all added to the caution. So will a strong JOLTs number and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting do anything for turn the sentiment around today? There’s also discussion on yesterday’s RBA meeting, which left the door open to earlier rate rises and tapering of QE, driven by data not dates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 6th July 2021Boris Johnson has told the UK public that they are just two weeks away from removing their masks, getting back to work and forgetting about social distancing. Within reason. Is this why the pound had such a strong day today, on what’s been a quiet session with the US holiday. Today, we know something will change with the RBA. That’s why Philip Lowe has scheduled a press conference this afternoon. But what exactly will be decided? NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the possibilities. More importantly, what will cause the market to react? And oil rises sharply as OPEC+ talks fall apart. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 5th July 2021Not too strong not too light, that seems to be the view of the non-farm payrolls in the US on Friday. It wasn’t strong enough to signal change in the Fed’s direction says NAB’s Tapas Strickland. At the current pace, he said, it would take eight months to get back to the pre-pandemic level for payrolls. There’s also discussion about changes expected from the RBA tomorrow. It’s been well signalled that there will be policy changes. Tapas says, given the improvements in the Australian economy, the need to run QE at $100 billion every six months is not there anymore. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 2nd July 2021Markets have been treading water all week waiting for the non-farm payrolls data, particularly in bond yields which hardly moved at all in the last 2 4hours. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there’s been a lot of data for markets to chew over too, some of it below expectations, some of it over. Markets are clearly looking for direction and hoping that payrolls will provide it. In the podcast we also look at yesterday’s manufacturing, trade, dwellings and job vacancy numbers from Australia – all good, although the Aussie dollar was one of the weaker currencies overnight. Why? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 1st July 2021As we’ve mentioned before, central bank speakers are having little influence on the markets since the sharp response to the last FOMC meeting. As David de Garis says on today’s podcast, investors should wait for the evidence, with the non-farm payrolls on Friday the next significant cab off the rank. The ADP numbers overnight were down on April, and could be revised down further, as is often the case. There’s also discussion about weakness in the Aussie dollar, despite the iron ore price, Andy Haldane’s parting words from the Bank of England and uncertainty over China’s growth. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 30th June 2021Markets have largely moved sideways, pulled between rising confidence numbers in the US and Europe, and concerns about rising cases of the Delta strain. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains, the Conference Board’s labour market differential index, which looks at the ratio between those who see jobs as being plentiful and this finding them hard to get, came in at the highest level since 2000. Also today, discussion on Christine Lagarde’s green plans for Europe, the direction of the Chinese economy and house price concerns. Today, Australian Private Sector Credit will be of interest along with the ADP jobs numbers for the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 29th June 2021A little more cautiousness has crept back into the markets says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, although it might be as much to do with the prelude to the non-farm payrolls numbers at the end of the week as it is to do with rising infection rates as lockdowns. On today’s podcast we look at vaccine numbers and what needs to happen to see economies can on full footing. Plus, Tapas’ taker on yesterday’s Intergenerational Report for Australia. Germany’s CPI numbers will be watched closely today, as do all inflation numbers lately. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.