NAB Morning Call

Thursday 4th February 2021New Zealand’s labour force data yesterday showed a strong fall in unemployment, possibly down to NAIRU levels. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this means inflation could soon emerge and does this mean the RBNZ is the first central bank to seriously think about a post-pandemic rate rise? It’s a very different story in Australia, with Philip Lowe yesterday reinforcing the dovish tone set by the RBA on Tuesday. Strong US data and reflation expectations have pushed oil to the highest level since the pandemic began, even as US reserves fell less than expected. And Mario Draghi is back on the scene. He has accepted an invitation to form government in Italy and there’s been a sharp reaction in local equities and bonds. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd February 2021All eyes and ears will be on Philip Lowe’s speech today, following the very dovish outlook from the RBA yesterday. Despite our expectation on yesterday’s podcast that they would taper their QE program, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains how they are extended it by another $100 billion, even though the economy is doing well and the fiscal position is improving. It was a big surprise, he says. In other news, the markets have returned to whatever is normal these days, as the influence of Redditt day traders subsides, for now. There are lots of services PMI numbers today which will give a good indication of how Europe, China, the UK and USA are travelling. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 2nd February 2021In normal times an episode like the Reddit induced short squeeze would eventually see markets return to normal. Normal today, of course, is a market driven by COVID-19 news, whether it’s the valuation of stay-at-home stocks like Amazon and Apple (both due to report tomorrow), or the latest vaccine rollout news. NAB’s David de Garis says the market is also getting more interested in the inflation story, after a big rise in the prices paid element of the US ISM manufacturing numbers. Today, the RBA meets. The question is, what will they do about QE – will they extend it, and if so, by how much? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 1st February 2021Equities were hit hard on Friday as the Reddit warriors made their mark. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the regulators response is to side with the retail investors, eager to investigate trading freezes by brokerages, like the Robin Hood app. Normally you might have expected Friday to see some positive sentiment in markets, with a strong batch of US data. Two new vaccines have come o the scene too, as the spat between Europe and the UK dies down a little over the distribution of Astra Zeneca doses. Today Scott Morrison will address the Press Club, when he will talk of more fiscal discipline, arguing the government can’t write a blank cheque forever. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th January 2021US equities have bounced back after a day influenced by speculative trading on retail platforms, like Robin Hood, with investors spurred on by chatter on Reddit. The app has stopped trading on eight of the stocks today, with prices readjusting themselves. Phil Dobie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether the new administration in the US could see this as an opportunity for more regulation of the finance sector. This Main Street versus Wall Street battle was certainly more entertaining than the Fed yesterday, with the press conference adding little to what was discussed on yesterday’s podcast. In other news US Q4 GDP figures show the rate of recovery has slowed, whilst NAB consumer spending analysis for last week shows consumption is bouncing back quickly, although it obviously isn’t hitting all sectors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 28th January 2021The markets have so far been unmoved by the DOFMC announcement, perhaps because it said so little. No move in rates or QE and a reliance on vaccine news before taking further steps, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril suggests the Fed will be on standby to do more if necessary. There has been a bevy of bad news from Europe, with German consumer confidence well down, rising concerns about the impact of a lower US dollar, slow vaccine deployment and now, a feud with the manufacturer over delivery timelines. One ECB member also suggested that the market was underestimating the potential for the bank to lower rates further. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 27th January 2021The IMF has upped their forecasts for global growth but, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland suggests on this morning’s podcast, markets don’t tend to pay a lot of attention to these numbers. There’s been more interest in the prospect of a stock bubble in China and the question of whether the PBoC will respond. Not too much is expected from the FOMC meeting today, but there is news that the ECB is to take the Euro exchange rate more seriously. They don’t want to see the US dollar keep falling. NAB is expecting inflation to be a little higher than consensus today – we explain why. We also look ahead to the NAB business survey and the US earnings season. And why one stock has been elevated by a woollen helmet for Elon Musk’s dog. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 25th January 2021Markets turned sharply to a risk-off mood at the end of last week, on the realisation that vaccine roll outs will take longer than hoped whilst infections are growing. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there were too many bad news stories on Friday to offset the optimism of those looking forward to the sunny uplands of a post-COVID world. There was also mixed news with PMI reads at the end of the week; Europe fared relatively well, the US saw improvements, but the UK was nothing short of a disaster. That’s on top of the news from the UK PM that the new strain is not only more infectious it’s more deadly, with fears that the other new strain (from South Africa) might also be more resistant to vaccines. Ass we said, many bad news stories. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd January 2021The ECB changed nothing overnight, with President Lagarde saying risks remained on the downside. NAB’s Gavin Friend says German bond yields rose as she suggested the full extent of the €1.85 trillion Pandemic bond purchase might not be required, although she also said it might, or there might even be a requirement for more. There’s also discussion on the impact of Joe Biden’s first day in office, and Janet Yellen’s words on China and currency manipulation. Australia jobs numbers didn’t disappoint, and today is PMI day, for the UK, Europe and the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 21st January 2021Former President Donald Trump often remarked about how his administration saw record highs in US equities. If the President has any control over that, Joe Biden can make the same claim, with new highs on the NASDAQ and S&P500 right from his first moment in office. Today we look at the risk-on mood of inauguration day and ask will it last. Could a bad set of weekly employment numbers later on dampen the mood? Plus, rising infection numbers in China, largely ignored by the markets so far. Phil Dobbie also asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what we can expect from employment numbers in Australia today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 20th January 2021It’s Inauguration Day, or it will be when Wednesday eventually ticks round in the US. Lady Gaga will sing the National Anthem before Biden moves into the Oval Office and works his way through his executive orders. Ahead of that, we’ve heard from Janet Yellen, the nominee to be Treasury Secretary who said the administration needs to act big to help those struggling through the COVID crisis. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the market reaction to her words. They also look at bank earnings and rising confidence in Germany, as well as looking ahead to the UK’s CPI figures later, plus the Bank of Canada meeting tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 19th January 2021Markets are looking through the prospect on any unrest on inauguration day, but the more immediate question is what with the President do today? Reuters is reporting he is withdrawing licences from any companies working with Huawei, is anything else in the offing? NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it doesn’t really matter too much what the President does, because it can always be undone in the days that follow. The bigger question is what will Biden’s attitude be to China? There’s also discussion on today’s podcast about yesterday’s GDP numbers for China, expectations for the ECB meeting this week and political unrest in Italy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 18th January 2021Markets responded at the end of the week to Joe Biden’s proposals for stimulating the US economy. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out in today’s Morning Call, markets questioned the President-Elect’s ability to implement his pandemic relief spending plan while Biden also noted everyone will have to pay their fair share. Soft US data and US banks underperformance didn’t help sentiment either. A safe-haven bid lifted the USD and weighed on longer dated UST yields. Otherwise, the continuance of disturbing infection rates for COVID-19 quell optimism everywhere, with the UK stepping up it’s measures on inbound travellers. There’s also discussion about Australia’s housing market – could prices really rise by 30 percent in the next few years? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 15th January 2021Bond yields were already on the rise before Fed chairman Jerome Powell talked down the likelihood of any easing in bond purchases this year. NAB’s Gavin Friend says he indicated the Fed would look through any short-term rise in inflation as a reason to make changes. This has added to a positive market sentiment today, despite a disastrous rise in US jobless claims, up from 784k to 965k in one week. There’s also discussion today on the ECB minutes, German GDP, NAB’s payments data and an exodus from the UK. Today, all eyes will be on what Joe Biden has to say. It’s a busy first week back! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 14th January 2021An ensuing impeachment of the US President continues to be of little concern to the markets, with more focus on the words coming from central bankers. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks about the continued fall in bond yields, as Fed speakers downplay the prospect of tapering of bond purchases later this year, aided by subdued US inflation numbers. All eyes will be on Joe Bidens stimulus plans and how much extra money he plans to pump into the economy. Meanwhile, Aussie job numbers have gone through the roof and Italy's government is on the verge of collapse. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 13th January 2020With yields rising there’s been a question mark over whether the appetite for treasury bonds is falling, ahead of trillions expected in new government debt. On today’s podcast NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the issuance of Treasuries this morning indicates the opposite may be true, with yields falling – the first decline since the beginning of the year. There’s also discussion on the easing of loans in China, the latest tit for tat measures between China and Australia, and what to expect from US inflation numbers tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 12th January 2020Bond yields continue to rise In the US as markets prepare for an expected multi-trillion dollar stimulus package from the President-elect. We’ve seen bond yields hit new highs, as equities start to fall. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether political uncertainty is behind any of these moves, including a fall in equities, admittedly from record highs on Friday. Meanwhile, Aussie retail sales looked strong yesterday, although the US dollar-strength saw the Aussie dollar lose ground. Could tensions with China also be playing into that weakness? Maybe the issue will go away when Donald Trump leaves the White House. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 11th January 2021The Morning Call is back, and the new year has kicked off in a very different place. The blue-wave wasn’t written in stone, but with control of the Senate the Democrats should find it easier to roll out more substantial stimulus measures, so does that mean the US economy will recover faster? Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the response in the bond markets, with Treasury yields rising markedly. But is there a risk that the expectation of a US recovery is overblown – after all COVID numbers continue to rise and there’s still a gargantuan task in rolling out vaccines. Given all that’s been going on, how have NAB’s forecasts changed over the last few weeks? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 22nd December 2020You might have expected a positive market response as the US politicians reach agreement on a fiscal stimulus bill, particularly as Europe became the latest region to approve a vaccine. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through how sentiment has rapidly switched direction. Investors have tended to look through short term concerns for the optimistic longer-term outlook, when COVID-19 is but a distant memory. But the rise in numbers in the UK and fears of the new strain that spreads faster has led to a sudden realisation that the short-term downside might last longer than expected. Then there’s Brexit – check back next week on that one. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 21st December 2020There’s a strong expectation that the US fiscal stimulus deal will be resolved in the next few hours. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the news will be good for risk assets helping equities recover and reflected in emerging market currencies. It’s a different story in the UK, of course, where the new strain of COVIDS-19 has seen London, large parts of southeast England and Wales moved into lockdown, and many European countries stopping flights from the UK. That’s being compounded with the lack of movement on a post-Brexit deal, but could the turn-for-the-worse on COVID force the UK and EU to reach a deal quickly, to cope with the other matter at hand? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th December 2020The post-Brexit trade deal and the US fiscal stimulus deal have been pushed back time and time again, but we really are at the point of no return. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there will be a deal in both instances, and the markets are priced accordingly. The US fiscal stimulus deal might mean politicians meet over the weekend, whilst UK MPs, already on their Christmas break, could be pulled back after their roast turkeys to sign off on their deal. Central banks have been squeezing in their final meetings of the year – the Bank of England unsurprisingly pessimistic, but the Swiss National Bank and the Norges Bank, both more upbeat. There’s also discussion on yesterday’s unemployment numbers for Australia, and the mid-year budget update yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 17th December 2020The US dollar slid overnight as US retail sales figures for November were released. The numbers “were grim” says NAB’s Gavin Friend on today’s Morning Call podcast. Sentiment turned more positive as the session progressed, with rising hopes that a fiscal stimulus deal is imminent. There’s also hope that a UK-EU trade arrangement is getting close, with Ursula von der Leyen saying there is a path to a deal. The FOMC met and announced no changes to interest rates or bond buying. Their forecasts see this year a little less bleak for GDP, and a big stronger than previously forecast for 2022. The Bank of England is also expected to sit on its hands tonight too. The US weekly job numbers are also worth watching – new jobless claims have been rising recently. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 16th December 2020Equities have climbed higher in the US and in Europe on the hopes that two deals will be struck this week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about the market response to a tweet from the BBC’s Nicholas Watt, suggesting there was a buzz around Brexit talks and a resolution could be close. There’s also renewed hope that the text for a fiscal stimulus deal will be agreed in the US. We might hear progress on both of those in the next few hours … or maybe not! Aside from all that, tomorrow morning’s question will be, what next from the FOMC? There’s some discussion on that in today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 15th December 2020The markets lost some of their mojo today. They kicked off well as the US starts its vaccination program, but the UK health secretary upset the apple cart by announcing that the rise in infections in and around London has been attributed to a new, faster-spreading variation of the virus. As NAB’s Ray Attrill point out, there is no suggestion that vaccines won’t be responsive to the new strain, but it could mean we see more lockdowns and restrictions – as evidenced by Germany, London and, potentially, New York. There’s hope a fiscal stimulus deal will be reached in the US this week, with the wording for a potential bill to be released in the next few hours. China’s activity numbers will be the main data point today. Oh, and Brexit talks continue. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 14th December 2020The inoculation program in the US has ambitious targets. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the aim is to have given the jab to 75% of the population by June. Even so, markets were a little subdued on Friday, as infection numbers continued to rise in the US and across Europe. Germany has announced its most pronounced lockdown so far, starting Wednesday. Meanwhile, Brexit hopes linger on, with Sunday’s deadline pushed back and negotiations continuing. That’s helped cable this morning, even though Boris Johnson has reiterated no-deal remains the most likely outcome. There’s also discussion on today’s podcast about the US stimulus, the FOMC meeting this week, Australia’s MYEFO and the rising price of iron ore. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 11th December 2020Even though a hard deadline has been set for Sunday for the UK-EU trade deal, there’s no guarantee it will all end there. NAB’s Gavin Friend says a no-deal could weaken the pound and soften the Aussie dollars chances of maintaining its position over 75 US cents. The ECB has announced more bond buying, whilst the EU has managed to broker a deal to pass its budget, including the Recovery Fund, using the age-old EU technique of kicking the can down the road. The US is also obfuscating on the fiscal stimulus package as virus numbers continue to rise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 10th December 2020As we recorded this morning’s podcast Ursula von der Leyen and Boris Johnson were meeting over dinner to discuss the progress of the UK-EU trade deal. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril predicts there will be no definitive outcome tonight, but it remains unlikely that the UK will accept what the Europeans are putting on the table. The EU will also have difficulties tomorrow as it tries to pass its budget and the Recovery Fund. More significant for us is the outcome of the ECB meeting. Rodrigo says any indication for how long the central bank continues its bond buying program will have repercussions for the RBA. US equities saw sharp falls today as infection rates rise and the passage of a stimulus deal this year seems to be slipping away. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 9th December 2020The UK has started injecting people with the COVID vaccine. If only they could inject compromise in the UK and EU negotiators who remain a long way from reaching a deal. The chances are slim according to Michel Barnier, as Boris Johnston travels to meet Ursula von der Leyen Wednesday night (Thursday morning AEDST). No deal, plus the potential blocking of the EU budget by Poland and Hungary could make for a very disappointing EU summit at the end of the week. Meanwhile,. There’s no progress on a fiscal stimulus package in the US, but as NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out, even if there is a smaller than anticipated deal, it’ll be the bridge to a larger deal after Joe Biden takes office. On today’s podcast there’s also discussion on yesterday’s NAB business survey and today’s China GDP ands PPI figures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 8th December 2020The UK-EU trade deal really is going right down to the wire – and the wire itself keeps getting pushed back. On today’s Morning Call NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the decision to hold a face to face meeting between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen means the decision will be reached in coming days, not in the next few hours. We might see a version of the $908b fiscal stimulus package in the US in a short while, though, although even here differences remain. Locally, yesterday’s downgrading of NSW and Victoria’s credit rating will push up borrowing costs, but the states will emerge from COVID-19 better placed than most parts of the world. Today’s NAB Business Survey will show how much confidence there is in the economy right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 7th December 2020US equities reached new highs again on Friday even though the jobs numbers were lower than anticipated. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the logic is that the disappointing numbers heighten the prospect of an agreement being reached on a fiscal stimulus deal. But its not there yet. It’s the same with a UK-EU trade deal. After cancelling talks on Friday they were back at it on Sunday, but Ray reckons the chance of a deal being struck is now 60 percent at best. Expect a lot of European market action late ri the week, with the EU summit, plus an ECB meeting where they are likely to up their bond-buying program. Today China’s trade numbers are the most significant data releases. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 4th December 2020OPEC+ has struck a deal to slowly increase oil production from next month, rather than letting the production cuts fall off a cliff. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says they will also monitor progress and make adjustments accordingly. That’s helped the oil price this morning, but the two other deals on the table remain in limbo. Talks over the post Brexit EU-UK trade deal remain in gridlock. The pound has remained resiliently strong, although it’s lost a little ground as doubt creeps in over last minute talks. The US fiscal stimulus deal seems to be edging slowly forward, although the size of it might be reduced in the rush for a compromise. Meanwhile equity markets have hit new highs as investors see through the rise in US infections, hospitalisations and fatalities, and ignore weaker ISM numbers. Perhaps tonight’s non-farm payrolls are a less important too. It’s less about the “now” and more about the “what next”. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 3rd December 2020The UK is the first country to approve the Pfizer BioNtech vaccine and will start jabbing people with it next week. That’s kept Brexit off the front pages in the UK, even though the pound has taken a sharp hit as talks don’t seem to have progressed much at all. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks about Australia’s GDP numbers which technically mean we are out of recession, but unemployment and annual GDP suggest otherwise. He also talks about Philip Lowe’s comments about following the world on future QE decisions, softer jobs numbers in the US and what to look out for today, including the Caixin Services PMI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 2nd December 2020There’s a positive vibe about this morning, pushing equities higher and Treasury yields have seen a sharp rise too. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it's down to a number of factors – stronger than expected Caixin PMI numbers from China, fast-tracking of vaccines, news that US stimulus talks are back on the table and reports that UK-EU trade negotiations have entered the tunnel. The only downside today has been a delay in reaching an agreement by OPEC – they'll try again on Thursday. Today we see the numbers for Australia’s Q3 GDP, which is expected to bounce back sharply. The RBA didn’t have much to say yesterday, avoiding any signals around whether it will extend, stop or reduce its QE program. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 30th November 2020The pound has already recovered the losses it made on Friday, when Brexit rhetoric was ramped up on both sides of the English Channel. Over the weekend, though, reports suggest talks have been far more productive, tackling the last sticking point of fishing rights, and there’s a real possibility that a deal could be reached in the early part of this week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the deal could include a new transition period, just for fish! Meanwhile, relations between Australia and China remain tense, even if it is having little influence on currencies or equities just yet. Today’s China PMI numbers will confirm how well the country is doing, compared to the rest of the world right now. But it’s been an incredibly strong month for global equities, spurred on by vaccine news, even though US infection rates continue to rise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th November 2020There are some questions over the numbers provided in phase three of the Astra Zeneca vaccine trial. NAB’s David de Garis says the concern is over the age of participations in the subset who achieved the highest level of efficiency. The makers claim a rerun of trials won’t slow progress, although some believe it could delay entry into the US. The ECB’s Philip Lane expressed concern about tightened of credit standards which could impede the European recovery. Meanwhile, lockdowns are being extended in parts of Europe. And on a quiet day in the markets, the pound is lower, with another day passing without any Brexit progress. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 26th November 2020It’s Thanksgiving today in the US and markets have been cautious ahead of the holidays. Vaccine hopes have been pushed aside after Wednesday’s post first-wave high for COVID fatalities in the US. There was also a string of disappointing data, including a rise in unemployment claims for the second week in a row. NAB’s Ray Attrill gives us his reaction to the FOMC meetings, hot off the press. Plus, the UK's Rishi Sunak paints a glum picture for the UK economy, but manages to avoid mentioning Brexit. A quiet data for global data, but at home private capex number, with a wide variety of opinions on what they’ll actually come out at. And what’s going on with the Kiwi dollar? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 25th November 2020President Trump made an appearance before cameras today to boast about the rise in equities, with the Dow breaking 3,0000 for the first time. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril tells Phil Dobbie it’s in part down to the relief that the Biden administration has now been given access to the handover process for the White House. It’s mixed with continued optimism around vaccines, which is seeing stocks that have suffered, like airlines, starting to bounce back. Oil is also back to pre-pandemic prices. The news that Janet Yellen is likely to be Treasury Secretary has also has a positive impact, whilst in New Zealand the request from the Finance Minister for the RBNZ to consider control house prices as part of its remit has seen sharp moves in bonds and the NZ dollar. Meanwhile, COVID numbers in the US continue to cause concern, even though it seems to have slipped the concern of investors right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 24th November 2020Astra Zeneca announced the results of their trials, with efficacy up to 90 percent with a drug that is cheaper to produce and easier to distribute. Yet the markets were cautious in their response, although equities are on the rise and tech stocks are taking a back seat. NAB’s David de Garis talks through the response, with the US dollar also spurred on by better than expected Markit PMI numbers for the US. Donald Trump is still in the White House and trying to build a western alliance to play it tough against China, although the response has been somewhat muted. The pound has strengthened on Brexit hopes even though there’s been no specific news. And it’s the Victoria budget today, with a focus on infrastructure spending. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 23rd November 2020NAB has revised its forecasts for growth in the Australia economy. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks us through it, plus Josh Fryenberg’s plans to boost invest from larger corporations. Meanwhile, markets continue to respond to COVID-19 infection rates, punishing equities in the US, with growth switching to Europe. There’s been a spat between the US Treasury and the Fed with Steve Mnuchin wanting to see the Fed return unused funds from emergency lending programs. And stand by for a Brexit deal – something has to happen this week, surely. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th November 2020Schools out for winter in New York as COVID cases in the US continue to rise, with the country passing a quarter of a million deaths from the virus. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Gavin Friend about how the markets are more focused on the short-term economic hit than the longer-term vaccine fuelled positive outlook The short-term hit was demonstrated, however, by a sharp increase in unemployment claims in the US. The reverse was the case in Australia yesterday, but worsening relations with China add another dimension to local markets. And Brexit talks have been delayed by a senior negotiator on the EU side contracting COVID-19, but Gavin reckons we can still expect positive news next week and the pound is behaving as though that is the case. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th November 2020Markets continue to be torn between the good news and the bad news. On the positive side, Pfizer is set to apply for emergency authorisation for its COVID-19 vaccine. NAB’s David de Garis says you’d have expected the news to have created more of a risk-on mood but, on the negative side, infection rates continue to rise. The spike in South Australia, with the six day statewide lockdown, has shown Australia is not immune. Beyond the virus, there’s hope that a UK-EU trade agreement will be announced next week, and the world is preparing for a different political outlook as the Biden administration gets set to move into the White House. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th November 2020There was no new vaccine news overnight and the markets seemed a little disappointed by that, with equities down and a move to government bonds. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this respite could be short lived, with the results of the Oxford vaccine trials imminent. Meanwhile, there seems to be less of a temptation to take an overly negative view despite the rising COVID-19 cases and sluggish retail sales in the US. The pound has been helped by positive talks around Brexit, although it’s unlikely any deal will be reached this week. And central banks are suggesting that financial regulators are stopping investors dipping into their savings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 17th November 2020Markets have been lifted higher on further vaccine news, with Moderna saying their trials have shown 94.5 percent effectiveness. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets are pricing in the positive news that we could have vaccines distributed early next year, whilst ignoring the bad news of rising infection rates, particularly in the US. There’s also discussion on today’s podcasts about comments from the RBA’s Philip Lowe yesterday, with a focus on the labour market and the need to contain the strength of the Aussie dollar. Plus, the latest on Europe’s recovery plans and Japan’s trade numbers and US retail numbers due out later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th November 2020Last week was a volatile one, but markets enthusiasm stemming from the hope of a vaccine led the charge, with some shifting of focus on equity markets. That said, infection numbers continue to rise, particularly in the US, where the President has flatly stated there will be no lockdowns so long as he’s in charge. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the push-pull effect of vaccine news versus COVID data will drive the markets again this week, with the added diversion of Brexit. There’s an EU Summit this week and Boris Johnson’s chief advisor Dominic Cummings left No. 10 on Friday, which some are reading as a sign that the UK will take a more conciliatory approach and a deal could be forthcoming. Perhaps. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th November 2020This week’s earlier optimism over a possible vaccine for COVID-19 has disappeared completely, with equities falling and bond prices rising. NAB’s Gavin Friend says rising COVID numbers in the UK and Europe have provided a dose of reality, with almost 33.5k cases in the UK on Thursday, despite a national lockdown. Numbers are also rising sharply in the US with the possibility that schools will close again in New York. The pound has taken the hardest hit today. Phil Dobbie asks Gavin how much of that is to do with a lack of progress on Brexit? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th November 2020Even though the markets continue to respond positively to the hope of a vaccine, central bankers seem to be taking a more cautious tone. NAB’s David de Garis said the tone set by the ECB’s Christine Lagarde was one of concern, at their central banker’s conference. The RBNZ also continued to present a dovish outlook – despite New Zealand’s low infection rates – but the expectation of negative interest rates has diminished significantly. There’s push and pull factors at play – on one side the vaccine hopes, on the other, what’ll happen in the meantime, with the virus still raging. The UK reached the sombre milestone of 50,000 fatalities today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th November 2020Those vaccine hopes continue today, even though there were warnings from Fed officials that the economy still faced ongoing impacts from COVID-19, with structural differences highlighting the need for the fiscal stimulus that now seems unlikely to happen this year. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s also some caution over the vaccine news, and a response to antitrust action against Amazon ramping up in Europe. On today’s podcast there’s also discussion on yesterday’s NAB Business Survey, which showed business confidence picking up, and today’s RBNZ meeting – will they be less dovish that many had anticipated? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th November 2020The markets have scarcely had time to respond to the news that Joe Biden is the next President of the United States than we’re it with the (potentially bigger) news that Pfizer have successfully completed stage three of their COVID-19 vaccine trials, with an astonishing 90% success rate. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the market’s response, which includes rising equities in the US and Europe, higher bond yields, a bounce in oil prices. Phil Dobbie asks whether this will alter the approach taken by the Fed and other central banks, starting with the RBNZ tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 9th November 2020There’s still a chance that in January the Democrats will take control of the Senate. Until then, President Trump is still in charge and the US faces rising COVID cases without a fiscal stimulus. Larry Kudlow suggested that Friday’s non-farm payrolls were so strong there isn’t a need for support but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says high-frequency data suggests the job recovery is slowing. Similarly, China reported a big increase in exports, but can that last if demand for goods is subdued by the continued strength of the pandemic. It’s a quiet week this week, except for the President’s legal challenges on the election result, but markets are not likely to respond to the sideshow. Similarly, there’s no market reaction to Brexit talks, even though the clock is ticking louder now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th November 2020Depending on which news source you choose, Biden has either 253 or 264 electoral college votes. We’re likely to find out today, but Donald Trump’s legal challenges could delay the confirmation of the result. Markets have adopted a risk-on stance, with the hope that there will be fiscal stimulus to counter the impacts of COVID, but other progressive policies, including tax rises, would be challenged in the Senate. Elsewhere, the Bank of England coordinated the injection of extra funds into the UK economy, with extra bond buying coinciding with the extension of the furloughed workers’ scheme. In Europe there’s hope that the EU can progress with the implementation of the Recovery Fund. NAB’s David de Garis says it highlights the need for the same fiscal and monetary coordination in the US, as COVID cases rise and the jobs recovery stalls. Today though, the Fed, offered nothing new. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.