NAB Morning Call

Friday 20th November 2020Schools out for winter in New York as COVID cases in the US continue to rise, with the country passing a quarter of a million deaths from the virus. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Gavin Friend about how the markets are more focused on the short-term economic hit than the longer-term vaccine fuelled positive outlook The short-term hit was demonstrated, however, by a sharp increase in unemployment claims in the US. The reverse was the case in Australia yesterday, but worsening relations with China add another dimension to local markets. And Brexit talks have been delayed by a senior negotiator on the EU side contracting COVID-19, but Gavin reckons we can still expect positive news next week and the pound is behaving as though that is the case. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th November 2020Markets continue to be torn between the good news and the bad news. On the positive side, Pfizer is set to apply for emergency authorisation for its COVID-19 vaccine. NAB’s David de Garis says you’d have expected the news to have created more of a risk-on mood but, on the negative side, infection rates continue to rise. The spike in South Australia, with the six day statewide lockdown, has shown Australia is not immune. Beyond the virus, there’s hope that a UK-EU trade agreement will be announced next week, and the world is preparing for a different political outlook as the Biden administration gets set to move into the White House. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th November 2020There was no new vaccine news overnight and the markets seemed a little disappointed by that, with equities down and a move to government bonds. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this respite could be short lived, with the results of the Oxford vaccine trials imminent. Meanwhile, there seems to be less of a temptation to take an overly negative view despite the rising COVID-19 cases and sluggish retail sales in the US. The pound has been helped by positive talks around Brexit, although it’s unlikely any deal will be reached this week. And central banks are suggesting that financial regulators are stopping investors dipping into their savings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 17th November 2020Markets have been lifted higher on further vaccine news, with Moderna saying their trials have shown 94.5 percent effectiveness. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets are pricing in the positive news that we could have vaccines distributed early next year, whilst ignoring the bad news of rising infection rates, particularly in the US. There’s also discussion on today’s podcasts about comments from the RBA’s Philip Lowe yesterday, with a focus on the labour market and the need to contain the strength of the Aussie dollar. Plus, the latest on Europe’s recovery plans and Japan’s trade numbers and US retail numbers due out later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th November 2020Last week was a volatile one, but markets enthusiasm stemming from the hope of a vaccine led the charge, with some shifting of focus on equity markets. That said, infection numbers continue to rise, particularly in the US, where the President has flatly stated there will be no lockdowns so long as he’s in charge. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the push-pull effect of vaccine news versus COVID data will drive the markets again this week, with the added diversion of Brexit. There’s an EU Summit this week and Boris Johnson’s chief advisor Dominic Cummings left No. 10 on Friday, which some are reading as a sign that the UK will take a more conciliatory approach and a deal could be forthcoming. Perhaps. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th November 2020This week’s earlier optimism over a possible vaccine for COVID-19 has disappeared completely, with equities falling and bond prices rising. NAB’s Gavin Friend says rising COVID numbers in the UK and Europe have provided a dose of reality, with almost 33.5k cases in the UK on Thursday, despite a national lockdown. Numbers are also rising sharply in the US with the possibility that schools will close again in New York. The pound has taken the hardest hit today. Phil Dobbie asks Gavin how much of that is to do with a lack of progress on Brexit? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th November 2020Even though the markets continue to respond positively to the hope of a vaccine, central bankers seem to be taking a more cautious tone. NAB’s David de Garis said the tone set by the ECB’s Christine Lagarde was one of concern, at their central banker’s conference. The RBNZ also continued to present a dovish outlook – despite New Zealand’s low infection rates – but the expectation of negative interest rates has diminished significantly. There’s push and pull factors at play – on one side the vaccine hopes, on the other, what’ll happen in the meantime, with the virus still raging. The UK reached the sombre milestone of 50,000 fatalities today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th November 2020Those vaccine hopes continue today, even though there were warnings from Fed officials that the economy still faced ongoing impacts from COVID-19, with structural differences highlighting the need for the fiscal stimulus that now seems unlikely to happen this year. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s also some caution over the vaccine news, and a response to antitrust action against Amazon ramping up in Europe. On today’s podcast there’s also discussion on yesterday’s NAB Business Survey, which showed business confidence picking up, and today’s RBNZ meeting – will they be less dovish that many had anticipated? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th November 2020The markets have scarcely had time to respond to the news that Joe Biden is the next President of the United States than we’re it with the (potentially bigger) news that Pfizer have successfully completed stage three of their COVID-19 vaccine trials, with an astonishing 90% success rate. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the market’s response, which includes rising equities in the US and Europe, higher bond yields, a bounce in oil prices. Phil Dobbie asks whether this will alter the approach taken by the Fed and other central banks, starting with the RBNZ tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 9th November 2020There’s still a chance that in January the Democrats will take control of the Senate. Until then, President Trump is still in charge and the US faces rising COVID cases without a fiscal stimulus. Larry Kudlow suggested that Friday’s non-farm payrolls were so strong there isn’t a need for support but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says high-frequency data suggests the job recovery is slowing. Similarly, China reported a big increase in exports, but can that last if demand for goods is subdued by the continued strength of the pandemic. It’s a quiet week this week, except for the President’s legal challenges on the election result, but markets are not likely to respond to the sideshow. Similarly, there’s no market reaction to Brexit talks, even though the clock is ticking louder now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th November 2020Depending on which news source you choose, Biden has either 253 or 264 electoral college votes. We’re likely to find out today, but Donald Trump’s legal challenges could delay the confirmation of the result. Markets have adopted a risk-on stance, with the hope that there will be fiscal stimulus to counter the impacts of COVID, but other progressive policies, including tax rises, would be challenged in the Senate. Elsewhere, the Bank of England coordinated the injection of extra funds into the UK economy, with extra bond buying coinciding with the extension of the furloughed workers’ scheme. In Europe there’s hope that the EU can progress with the implementation of the Recovery Fund. NAB’s David de Garis says it highlights the need for the same fiscal and monetary coordination in the US, as COVID cases rise and the jobs recovery stalls. Today though, the Fed, offered nothing new. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 5th November 2020US equities have climbed as the US goes through Wednesday without a clear winner in the election. It seems likely Biden will win, with five key states still undecided and millions of votes still to be counted. The Senate looks less clear and NAB’s Gavin Friend suggests this explains the behaviour of the bond markets, without the fear of unbridled fiscal spending. Conversely, of course, a delayed election result also delays the passage of any further fiscal stimulus package. Will that influence the Fed’s decision on Thursday – one of two central banks making announcements (the other is the Bank of England). Important those these meetings are, all eyes will remain on the vote counts, and whether President Trump is serious in his proclamation to challenge the result (if he loses). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 4th November 2020The RBA announced cuts to interest rates and a step up in bond buying yesterday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, as other banks follow, there won’t be any influence in the strength of the Aussie dollar. Americans are voting right now, with record numbers of postal and early votes, which could delay the outcome, or speed it up. Although there’s a clear expectation than Biden will win, and the Democrats regain control of the Senate, nobody is entirely sure what will happen over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile the expected mega-listing of the Ant Group has been delayed and Brexit talks have left both sides exhausted. Aside from the US election, payrolls for Australia will be the numbers to watch today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 3rd November 2020Markets flipped from Friday’s share and bond sell-off, with more optimism a day or two out from what is expected to be a Biden victory. NAB’s Ray Attrill also points to very strong manufacturing numbers published for the US, which will have been an encouraging sign for investors too. Ahead of the US election though, there’s a Melbourne Cup to be won, and a decision to be made by the RBA, which will include rate cuts and more bond buying. Phil Dobbie asks Ray why the RBA needs to be taking such a strong stance when Australia is faring better than most places when it comes to tackling the pandemic. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 2nd November 2020After the markets finished with a strong equities and bond sell-off on Friday, expect a busy week, with the RBA, the Fed and Bank of England all meeting, with the difficult job of determining how to see the economy through rising infection numbers. Then there’s the non-trivial matter of the US election tomorrow. Will we hear the results by Wednesday? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s a very strong chance that we won’t. The big question for the RBA tomorrow, will be whether they announce an increase to QE at the longer end of the curve. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 30th October 2020Markets turned around again, with equities rising sharply. How much of it is the anticipation of Q3 tech company earnings results after the US close, how much of it is the strong bounce back in US GDP and how much is the anticipation of a clear outcome in next week’s US election? Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend how he reads the market right now, and what are his thoughts on the ECB meeting which did little, but promised a lot more next time. Meanwhile virus numbers rise, there are more restraints on the economy in France and Germany – and could the UK be forced to go further next week too? Next week will be quite a week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 29th October 2020US equities have been hit hard today, the third day of losses, with the US dollar rising. NAB’s David de Garis said the markets hit the decks running as they opened in Europe, running away from risk. There’s growing concerns about the rising COVID infection rates, and, more significantly, rises in death rates in Europe and the US. Macron could be about to announce a significant lockdown of the French economy soon. Meanwhile, although Biden is still expected to win the US election next week, there are growing concerns about how clear the win will be, and whether President Trump will contest the result. If central banks have run as far as they can, the only injection for COVID-hit economies will come from fiscal measures. That was the gist of the message from the Bank of Canada, and is likely to be echoed by the ECB today. This morning the NAB business survey will give an invaluable read on expectations for Q3, whilst the US GDP numbers later on will show the extent of the country’s bounce back. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 28th October 2020There’s a risk that next week’s US election is more contestable than we might have considered a week ago. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says late surge polling could fall in the President’s favour. A poll in the US has also demonstrated just how many American’s would take to the streets if their preferred candidate didn’t win. Through rising COVID numbers into the mix, and it’s not surprising that the markets continue to struggle to find certainty right now. On the data front, US durable goods orders looked strong, as did industrial profits in China. And newspapers are reporting that Australia is heading out of recession on the back of the RBA’s Guy Debelle’s comments to Senate Estimates yesterday, but in reality his comments were more guarded than that. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 27th October 2020Markets are displaying classic risk-off moves today – with equities down, bond prices up and the US dollar the safe haven currency of choice. The reasons are clear – COVID cases continue to rise, a US stimulus won’t happen in a hurry and although the expectation of a Biden victory is clear there’s still the uncertainty of an election in a week’s time. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks through the moves, with the bad news overshadowing the good news – like Melbourne’s economy reopening tomorrow, and Astra Zeneca’s latest vaccine trial news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 26th October 2020Last week finished with US stocks down, the US dollar down and the price of bonds down. Normally, if the sentiment is risk off and equities are down, you’d see the US dollar rise. The fact that didn’t happen demonstrates the US dollar is in a down trend, says NAB’s Ray Attrill on today’s Morning Call. Short term we can expect markets to continue to be influenced by election polls, Brexit hopes and COVID-19 statistics. The idea of a stimulus deal in the US remains a tiny glimmer of hope, but Nancy Pelosi might be the only person left hoping. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd October 2020In a few hours Joe Biden and Donald Trump go head to head in the last election debate. NAB's Gavin Friend says equities have picked up some momentum later in the session, possibly not because of lingering hopes of a pre-election stimulus deal, but more on a Biden victory that could secure a more sizeable deal than would ever be agreeable to fiscally conservative Republicans. The UK has added more support payments for workers as COVID cases continue to rise, there and across Europe. A newspaper report claims Michel Barnier sees fish as the only sticking point for Brexit, which suggests a deal is closer than ever. And PMIs for Europe, the UK and the US will give an indication on to what extent the service sector has stalled in its recovery. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 22nd October 2020Talks are back on. Safter setting a deadline of Tuesday, Nancy Pelosi is continuing talks with the Republicans with a view to getting a stimulus package agreed for the US by the weekend. And after giving each other the cold shoulder for the first half of the week, the UK and EU are back to talking about a Brexit deal, meeting every day now until the issue is resolved. “This is the final run in”, says NAB’s David de Garis on today’s Morning Call podcast. If successful it could boost the pound, but the risk goes both ways. Meanwhile rising COVID numbers continue to cause concern and oil prices have taken a hit after a surprise rise in gasoline inventories in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 21st October 2020Equities are higher in the US again today. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it is largely on the back of continued hope that a stimulus deal will be struck. If not now, perhaps after the election with the possibility that the Democrats also win control of the senate. There’s also optimism around a vaccine and US housing data bounced back, showing more underlying strength in the US economy. Tapas is asked why US equites continue to significantly outperform those in Europe, Australia and other parts of the world. There’s also talk about the RBA minutes and yesterday’s Australian jobs data, plus the high demand for the ERU’s first ’social bonds’. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 20th October 2020Markets are waiting to see the outcome of two on again off again decisions, both with sizeable economic consequences. Boris Johnson declared that Brexit talks were over, but NAB’s Ray Attrill says the markets clearly don’t believe him, with the pound one of the strongest currencies today. Stateside, equities are subdued as the deadline for a pre-election stimulus deal draws closer. Meanwhile the Aussie, which should be benefiting from a falling US dollar and a stronger Yuan, refuses to budge as markets come to terms with the next moves from the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 19th October 2020After a fairly volatile week markets were calmer on Friday on the back of positive retail numbers from the US. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says Republicans could use it as an excuse not to support further stimulus measures. There was little market reaction to Boris Johnson’s threats to walk away from Brexit negotiations, perhaps because ‘walking away’ has been shown to mean ‘keep talking’. Jacinda Ardern’s election victory is unlikely to see a market response because it too was entirely expected. Today’s GDP numbers from China will show how their economic recovery continues, whilst any volatility this week is likely to be driven by rising COVID-19 numbers, news of related government restrictions, Brexit talks and the US election circus. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th October 2020There’s a strong risk off mood in the air, which has pushed the US dollar higher and hit stocks. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether markets are now accepting that COVID-19 cases are rising and that will stall attempts at an economic recovery. It certainly seems to be the case in Europe, with more stringent controls being introduced in Paris and London and cases rising in Germany too. Weekly jobless numbers pointed to a further slowdown in the US. At home, a very dovish Philip Lowe signalled where the RBA is heading in November – lower rates and more bond buying seems likely. NZ goes to the polls at the weekend, but it’s unlikely Jacinda Ardern has called the removalists. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 15th October 2020Philip Lowe, the Governor of the RBA, is talking this morning. NAB’s David de Garis tells us what to expect in terms of signalling for future stimulus measures. Stimulus is off the cards for now in the US, but listening to President Trump speaking at the Economic Society of new York you’d have to wonder why they need it. They’ve had the smallest economic contraction and fastest recovery of any major western nation, he said. He left out China, of course, because their economy really has had a V-shaped recovery, demonstrated further by increased loans reported yesterday and, hence, a larger money supply, that should boost their GDP further. In Europe, rising infection rates and lockdown fears continue to cause uncertainty, whilst Brexit talks will continue beyond the EU meeting this week. The pound continues to be highly volatile to it all, choosing today to rise in the side of optimism. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 14th October 2020The Aussie dollar has taken a hit twice in the last twenty-four hours. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the first hit came on reports that China was to stop importing Australian coal, a significant worsening of trade relations. The second hit came as the US dollar rose and equities fell as the last vestiges of hope for a stimulus deal seemed to disappear. There’s also caution around earnings results, with banks so far producing good results but not much optimism looking ahead. The pound has had a worse night though, as Brexit talks continue to produce no results, unemployment numbers were worse than expected, COVID cases have risen further and the opposition leader is calling for another full national lockdown. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 13th October 2020The US senate is seemingly preoccupied with pushing through Amy Coney Barrett as Supreme Court nominee, casting aside any bandwidth for fiscal stimulus talks. Yet US equities have bounced higher today. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s no clear logic for enthusiasm amongst share investors, except for the hopes that a Biden win will see more fiscal stimulus; but it would also mean more regulation for tech companies, and they’ve been leading the charge overnight. Equally as curious, the pound has risen despite rising COVID cases, more lockdown measures and no Brexit progress. It’s perhaps easier to explain the fall in the Aussie and NZ dollars, pulled down with the PBoC’s measures to reduce the value of the Renminbi. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 12th October 2020The US dollar hit a two and a half year low on Friday, whilst the Chinese Yuan showed big gains. NAB’s Tapas Strickland said the dollar fell on expectations of a Biden victory, which could see increase government spending to tackle the economic impacts of COVIDS-19. The Yuan gained ground as the Caixin Services PMI came in strong. This week was to be the week when a Brexit deal would finally be agreed, but why rush into these things? Talks are likely to continue into November. This week Australian investors will be looking to RBA’s Philip Lowe’s speech on Thursday for suggestions about the easing policy that is likely to be introduced in the November meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 9th October 2020Donald Trump continues to talk about a stimulus deal, even though he said it had been shelved. But NAB’s David de Garis reckons its highly unlikely anything will be done before the election, an election with Joe Biden stands an increasing chance of winning. The minutes of the September ECB meeting showed concern over the EUR exchange rate, which could present “a risk to both growth and inflation”. Today’s GDP numbers for the UK are likely to show some growth in August as the hospitality industry kicked back into gear, but pubs and restaurants are facing more closures now as infection numbers rise. And the NZ dollar has been losing ground as the RBNZ Assistant Governor raised expectations for negative interest rates next year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 8th October 2020There’s been a market rebound on the hope that some sort of stimulus deal in the US is still possible before the election, but will it really happen? Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether the rising likelihood of a Biden victory is also an influence. The FOMC minutes haven’t shifted markets much this morning, so was there anything surprising in there? There’s also discussion in today’s podcast on last night’s Australian Federal Budget. There’s plenty of stimulus, but has the government got it right on growth forecasts? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 7th October 2020There’s been a strong reaction in the equity and currency markets to Donald Trump’s sudden decision to stop talks about a fiscal stimulus, even though he tweeted about the need for it whilst in hospital over the weekend. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders whether he’s serious, or is it a last minute bargaining tactic? It comes after the Fed’s Jerome Powell warned that too little fiscal support would lead America to a weak recovery. All this at a time when Biden seems to be pulling away in the polls. Meanwhile, the RBA and Australia government are more in-tune on the need for stimulus to create and retain jobs, whilst the ECB is sounding more dovish. And Brexit talks – the reports are mixed. Deadlines are getting pushed back. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 6th October 2020As the President prepares to leave for the White House there’s still hope that a deal will be reached to pass version 2 of the Heroes Act, adding more stimulus to the US economy. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend if that’s what’s driving the risk-on mood today, or is it the news that the President will be out of hospital soon? Gavin suggests the rising gap in the polls will also be driving the mood, removing the uncertainty perhaps of a drawn out election process. The President told people not to be afraid of COVID in a recent tweet, which could mould his campaign message from now on. The non-manufacturing ISM read has added to the plethora of strong(ish) data from the US. It’s a busy day for Australia today, with the RBA meeting and the Federal Budget tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 5th October 2020Friday was certainly a gamechanger. The US President went into hospital without a clear picture of his condition. Now, it seems he could be returning to the White House as soon as today. So, do the markets take back some of their risk concerns, and focus on the positives of the situation? That’s a question Phil Dobbie puts to Ray Attrill in today’s Morning Call podcast. One positive could be that Republicans are more prepared to reach a deal on a stimulus package. Friday’s non-farm payrolls in the US on Friday were largely ignored by the markets, but showed a slowing in jobs recovery. The pound strengthened on Friday on hopes that talks over Brexit will step up, but there’s still a lot of ground to be covered in a very short period of time. And locally, we’re one day away from the next RBA meeting and the budget, but markets are more likely to be eyeing Washington than hanging out for words from Josh Frydenberg. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 2nd October 2020Equities in the US rose overnight despite a stalemate on the fiscal stimulus package. Optimists insist there is some hope that a deal will be reached but, as NAB’s David de Garis puts it, the whole thing is being held back by philosophical differences. The pound has had a choppy day today, with little progress on the Brexit talks. The EC has started legal proceedings against the UK with regard to their Internal Markets Bill, giving the UK Prime Minister a month to respond. By then you’d hope a trade deal will be reached, but there’s no guarantee the two parties will go into tunnel talks. Non-farm payrolls from the US will be the major bit of new data tonight, the weekly jobs numbers released last night showed the claw back in employment is slowing and many US companies have announced major layoffs this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 1st October 2020No sell off in equities after that yelling match that was apparently a presidential election debate. In fact, equities have been helped by some strong data from the US and continued hope on a stimulus deal, although enthusiasm for that waned somewhat later in the session. Elsewhere, the Bank of England’s Andy Haldane criticised the Chicken Licken mentality. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s a curious comment given the sharp rise in COVID-19 cases in the UK. The pound has gained more as the UK potentially gave some ground in the Brexit negotiations, and the Aussie dollar boosted by rising commodity prices and strong PMI numbers from China. The US manufacturing ISM and weekly jobless claims will be numbers to look out for tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 30th September 2020Despite a big jump in confidence in the Conference Board numbers for the US, there’s not much optimism in the markets today. NAB’s David de Garis says, as the virus refuses to settle down, the lack of a fiscal stimulus deal – the so-called Heroes Act – will be playing on markets (hence the title of today’s podcast, a homage to the 1970’s punk band The Stranglers). There’s also the pre-debate nerves, with Trump and Biden battling it out in the next few hours. Oil has taken a hit today, again because of COVID concerns and the realisation that demand will be slow to pick up. Today, China’s PMI numbers and RBA credit numbers will be of interest to Aussie investors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 29th September 2020US and European equities rose sharply, with rising confidence seeing a fall in the US dollar and a rise in the Aussie. The reports that the US President has paid very little in tax might provide some fodder for Joe Biden in the TV debate and NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it could influence undecided voters. Whichever way you look at it, it’s going to be a messy election. Meanwhile, the pound has gained in hopes of a Brexit deal, which has offset any concerns about further lockdowns in the UK. The gains in the Aussie dollar will be partially influenced by an expectation that the RBA won’t cut rates next week, waiting instead till November. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 28th September 2020COVID19 cases continue to rise in Europe, with numbers in the UK and France now well above the first wave. Yet, whilst there’s very little in the way of new data to influence the markets this week, there’s plenty of non-COVID politics; the President’s nomination of Amy Comey Barrett for the Supreme Court, the first Presidential election debate mid-week, and the start of another round of Brexit talks, with hopes increasing that a deal will be struck. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through a week which will be less about economic data and more about geopolitics – and virus numbers of course. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th September 2020Equities were rising again in the US overnight on the hopes that a stimulus deal would be struck between the GOP and Democrats, but as optimism turned to reality, prices fell, the US dollar regained some of its strength and bond yields weakened. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it demonstrates how markets are clinging to any good news in amongst what’s a pretty bleak picture right now. The pound gained a little ground as the Chancellor Rishi Sunak unveiled the follow-up to the furlough scheme, but its clear many workers will not be covered and unemployment will rise. Have we reached the end of the road for sizeable bailouts from governments? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 24th September 2020NAB had forecast that the Aussie dollar would reach 74 US cents by the end of the year. It did earlier this month but, as global risk sentiment rises, it is rapidly losing ground. On his first day back from holidays, NAB’s Ray Attrill is asked whether he still thinks the Aussie will regain strength, given the hit it has been taking this week? How much of it is down to the easing expectations for the RBA? The risk-off mood is being driven by rising virus concerns and louder voices from the Fed on the need for a fiscal stimulus which looks less likely by the day. To add to global concerns, flash PMI numbers for Europe show a service sector in contraction, putting the kibosh on rapid recovery hopes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 23rd September 2020In the US Jerome Powell spelt out very clearly in his testimony before Congress that more fiscal stimulus was needed and had been assumed by many board members in their policy predictions. Meanwhile, in Australia Guy Debelle has hinted that more monetary easing might be round the corner. Tapas Strickland says NAB has revised its rates forecast and explains some of the reasoning behind it. It’s been a bad day for the pound, as infections rise further and more restrictions are imposed on the public. A swag of PMIs are out today for Europe and the US, which will give a clearer idea of how each economy is traversing the economic impacts of the pandemic. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 22nd September 2020Concerns over the impact if a second wave in the US and Europe seem to be gathering momentum, driving investors to government bonds and safe-haven currencies. NAB’s Gavin Friend says banking stocks have added to the slide today following an investigation into how some big banks failed to stop money laundering up to three years ago. The US election is adding to uncertainty. But it’s the rising virus numbers that are the real concern and what else, if anything, central banks can do about it. All eyes will be on Jerome Powell’s testimony on the Fed and on Guy Debelle’s speech today, to see the direction the RBA is planning to head. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 21st September 2020As COVID-19 cases rise in many parts of the world, and more restrictive measures likely in the UK and Europe, there’s the question of what more central banks can do to help stabilise the global economy? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says this should be an interesting week in that respect, with central bank speakers out in force, including Jerome Powell facing a two-day grilling by the Senate and the Congress in the US. Meanwhile, uncertainty is hurting the share markets, which took a tumble on Friday. The pound could be a casualty this week with Boris Johnson set to announce more restrictions for the UK public on Tuesday, whilst, conversely, Victoria’s infection rates are falling and NZ is likely to ease measures from tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th September 2020It’s been a topsy turvy session overnight, that’s seen equities slide even though a day ago the FOMC was signalling years of near zero interest rates. NAB’s Gavin Friend says by extending the expected period of low rates investors dwelled more on the negative impacts of the virus. There was some optimism that a deal would be struck to provide more fiscal stimulus in the US, but despite the President’s calls for Republicans to be prepared to spend more, a deal still seems unlikely. In the UK the pound also twisted and turned, driven up by optimism over a Brexit deal from Ursula von der Leyen and driven down by talks of negative interest rates from the Bank of England. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 17th September 2020US interest rates will be lower for longer – that’s the takeout from today’s FOMC meeting. So, what are the implications of three, perhaps four years, of near zero rates? A question put to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril in today’s Morning Call podcast. How concerned should we be about deflation, with figures in the UK today showing a 0.4 percent fall in August? There’s also discussion on today’s labour market data for Australia, GDP numbers for Q2 for New Zealand and what to expect from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England later on. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 16th September 2020Equities are on the rise again in the US. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it has been driven by a flurry of M&A activity, alongside vaccine hopes and reasonable activity numbers from China, which showed retail sales turning positive for the first time this year. Compared to that, US data was decidedly mixed, with the pace of recovery seeming to slow. The FOMC meeting tomorrow morning will present a dovish view, says Gavin, with the possibility of downgrading some of their economic forecasts. On the podcast there’s also discussion on yesterday’s RBA minutes and why the latest UK employment numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 15th September 2020Shares climbed in the US today on the hope that Pfizer will have a vaccine ready by the end of the year. It’s a promise made by their CEO at the weekend and touted by the US President. The US dollar fell, with the NZ dollar the main beneficiary. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says speculation is mounting that the RBA will buy more government bonds to bring interest rates down, which accounts for a why there’s been less interest in the Aussie dollar. Plus, more volatility for the pound, and activity numbers from China today will help determine whether consumer confidence has come back yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 14th September 2020It’s just over six months since the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and we’re all still unsure about how it will all end. NAB’s Tapas Strickland said we can expect some optimism today as the Oxford University-Astra Zeneca trials resume, and that could help the Aussie dollar gain some ground? But could it also hit tech stocks, who have been enjoying their moment in the sun as home workers have been more reliant on technology. The tech bubble will be tested this week with a significant number of IPOs in the US. On today’s podcast there’s also discussion on the latest inflation numbers in the US ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, the UK’s delayed recovery, China’s credit growth and Japan’s new Prime Minister. Plus a look ahead to the RBA meeting tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.