NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 4th May 2022On today’s podcast NAB’s Ivan Colhoun talks through the RBA’s higher-than-expected rate hike yesterday. Taylor Nugent adds that it was clearly more than expected, given the rise in front-end bond yields after the meeting, buoyed on by more hawkish rhetoric from the RBA’s Governor Lowe after the meeting. Next it’s the FOMC, early tomorrow morning, with a 50 basis point rise still anticipated. The JOLTs numbers indicated the labour market is still very tight and the challenge will be to restrain wage inflation. Job numbers and wages data tonight and Friday might add fuel to the fire. This morning, lots of focus on wage inflation in New Zealand, with employment data out and a press conference from the RBNZ. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 3rd May 2022US 10-year Treasury yields snuck over three percent overnight, albeit briefly. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says this could be the psychological baseline that sees rates grow higher. The latest ISM showed a slowing growth in US manufacturing, the result of lockdowns in China, but the Fed is still expected to push ahead with a significant rise later this week. Before that, the RBA meets today and the expectation is that they’ll raise rates by 15 basis points, but some see an argument to push them up to 0.5%. Also, today, a flash crash in Swedish equities. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 2nd May 2022Last week finished with stocks well down in the US, particularly amongst high-growth tech-stocks. The reason, growing inflation concerns. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a 50-basis point hike from the Fed is very likely later this week, with growing market expectations that it could be followed by a 75-basis point rise next month. Meanwhile, there were further signs of growing inflation at the end last week that inflation, including a big rise in core inflation for Europe, rising producer prices in Australia and higher than expected wage growth in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th April 2022The US delivered a sharp fall in GDP in the first quarter. It wasn’t expected and could naturally spark fears that recession could be coming to the US sooner rather than later. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland says ‘beneath the hood’ the numbers showed that the US economy was still performing relatively well, with the numbers dragged down by a larger negative trade balance and lower inventories. As a result, equities continued to push higher, along with the US dollar. Inflation fears are rising in Europe though, with a higher-than-expected CPI read for Germany. These concerns pushed front-end yields higher and forced the Riksbank to unexpectedly lift their rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 28th April 2022Australian inflation rose more than expected yesterday. NAB’s Ivan Colhoun said it didn’t come as a complete surprise. NAB’s Business Survey has been showing rising input costs, and its likely inflation will rise till further in the next quarter. All that points to a high likelihood that the RBA will lift interest rates next week. Elsewhere, markets have had a temporary does of optimism, although NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a resolution has to be found for Europe’s energy problems. There just aren’t enough global supplies to completely cut out Russia. US GDP and German CPI are two significant data releases today, along with the business activity outlook for New Zealand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 27th April 2022Big market moves today, with US shares plummeting, bond yields also falling, and commodity prices rising sharply. European gas prices shot up on the news that Russia intends to turn off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria almost immediately, for not paying in Roubles. Whilst Europe debates whether they should ban buying Russian gas, perhaps the decision will be made for them. NAB’s Ray Attrill says recession fears on a global scale are also impacting sentiment, particularly as the war in Ukraine is clearly with us for some time, and China’s lockdown fears. Today, Australia’s CPI will be the numbers to watch. Could they rise enough to drive the RBA to a rise as soon as next week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 26th April 2022There’s been a strong risk-off sentiment to the start of the week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says equity investors belatedly “got the memo” on the Fed’s front-end loading for rate rises. Fears of more lockdowns in China, including Beijing, have added to the uncertainty, even though the fatality rates are low in comparison to many opened-up western nations. It seems China’s zero-COVID focus and the ongoing impacts of the Ukraine war are two issues that won’t slip away anytime soon. US GDP and Australian CPI will be two of the main focuses data-wise this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd April 2022Markets are a little easier to understand today. Bond yields are back on the rise, given inflation expectations and more hawkish rhetoric from central banks. That’s hit equities. NAB’s Ken Crompton agrees that it’s a more text-book response to what we have been seeing, with equities and yields rising in tandem. There have been particularly strong moves for front end yields of European bonds, with some members giving a more hawkish timetable for rate rises. Today PMIs will be closely scrutinised to get a flavour of growth and conditions across Europe, the UK and USA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 21st April 2022Bond yields have fallen sharply overnight, but that doesn’t mean inflation expectations are going away, or does it? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the Fed’s Beige Book, out overnight, highlights some examples of how inflation might be nearing its peak, but there are plenty to suggest otherwise. For example, Canada’s CPI and German PPIs, two sets of numbers showing prices are still rising, at quite a rate. NZ CPI numbers are out soon. Also today, a short-term reprieve for the Yen, whilst the Yuan falls to a six-month low. The Zero COVID approach had an impact on Japan’s export numbers, and will add to global inflation worries. And what about their attitude towards Russia? If you want a healthy dose of geopolitics, the French Presidential debate is also on today, ahead of the weekend election, and it’s close. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 20th April 2022It’s not something that will continue for long, but US bind yields have risen sharply today, and so have equities. Which one will give in first? Equities have risen because of strong earnings results but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill observes in today’s podcast, there’s still a long way to go. Bond yields are rising as Fed speakers up the ante on the path of interest rates, with one even raising the prospect of a 75-basis point rise at the next meeting. Meanwhile, oil is down sharply today, with the IMF downgrading global growth forecasts, except in Australia. There’s also discussion on the RBA minutes and the fall in the Japanese Yen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 19th April 2022There’s a fundamental difference in the approach of the ECB and the Fed, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains on today’s podcast. Whereas the Fed is focused on inflation, the ECB is also concerning itself with growth. Could we see rising prices curtail that growth faster than anticipated? What about rising rates. The IMF has warned that rising rates will drive deleveraging that will have a marked impact on GDP growth. We also look at lockdowns in China and whether the rising bond yields in the US will offset any positive news to come from earnings results this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 14th April 2022Despite 50 basis point hikes by the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ over the last 24 hours, bond yields haven’t moved a great deal. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the market has taken a bit of a breather, which has offered a reprieve for stocks, with the NASDAQ climbing 2 percent at close. The path is certain for Canada and New Zealand, but it’s a less clear direction for the ECB, which meets tonight, with no moves expected as Europe struggles with rising energy prices and the impact of Russian sanctions. Similarly, the UK has just reported the highest CPI read in 30 years and it will only get worse, but the cost-of-living squeeze is making it hard for the Bank of England to look at big moves in a hurry. Today’s employment numbers for Australia will be keenly watched by the RBA, who will be looking at prospects for wage rises driven by an even tighter labour market. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 13th April 2022US inflation rose as expected, but there’s still been a reaction in the bond markets. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says investors latched onto the core CPI read coming in slightly softer than expected or feared. The subtly of the change wasn’t picked up by equity markets which fell, pushed lower by rising oil prices and the realisation that inflation is still here and could get worse. The NAB Business Survey yesterday demonstrated how Australia isn’t exempt, as Ivan Colhoun explains on today’; s podcast. Later on, two central banks who might well lift rates by 50 basis points – the RBNZ and the Bank of Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 12th April 2022US bond yields continue to career higher. ‘IT was another blistering night’ says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, with 10-year Treasury yields reaching a three-year high. With no new news, he says, it’s a continued reaction to the hawkish Fed agenda. But could it all backfire? The Fed has never had successive 50 basis point rises. There are still concerns that they could spark a recession if they move too quickly, particularly as supply chain difficulties won’t be resolved by monetary policy. And the rising COIVD cases in China suggest there will be more supply constraints to come. With inflation front and centre of everyone’s attention right now, US CPI figures are obviously the numbers to watch for. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 11th April 2022Although there’s clearly volatility in markets, NAB’s Ray Attrill says the common thread is that yields are still rising. Even if the inversion in the curve has dissipated, the fact remains 10-year yields are at multi-year highs as inflation fears grow and central banks respond. Food prices have risen almost 13 percent in one month, even worse if you cook with vegetable oil. This might be reflected in China’s CPI numbers today, and for the US mid-week. The war will have a strong influence on this, and there are no signs it will dissipate anytime soon. Meanwhile several central banks meet this week, including the ECB. Markets are priced for a 50-basis point rate hike by the Bank of Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 8th April 2022As bond yields continue to rise, particularly in the US, it seems there’s not much impact from all the hike talk on consumer spending just yet. Consumer credit numbers in the US shot up in February, much of it revolving credit. Will that just add to the Fed’s concerns and the accelerated rate of hikes, which has seen bond yields push ever higher. Ken Crompton says NAB’s forecast is for 10 yields to reach 3 percent by the end of the year, but there is still considerable room for movement. Yesterday’s Australian balance of trade numbers were a surprise, with much higher imports pushing February’s surplus down by $4.5 billion from the month before. Whilst the ECB minutes overnight reflect a more hawkish approach, but a bank still heavily divided on the road to take. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 7th April 2022Bond markets have reacted sharply and briefly to the FOMC minutes this morning, which suggested the Fed might start slashing its balance sheet sooner rather than later. This added to the sentiment expressed by Lael Brainard earlier in the week, which saw the yield curve steepening a little. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend what these moves are telling us, and why the impact has cut short the strengthening of the Aussie dollar. Maybe strong trade numbers today will turn it around again. There’s also discussion about German factory orders and tonight’s ECB minutes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 6th April 2022The RBA has lost its patience and wants to move fast, but how fast and how far? On today’s podcast NAB’s Ivan Colhoun says it’s unlikely we’ll reach the 3% terminal rate that markets are anticipating, or at least with the expected rapidity. Taylor Nugent – new to the Morning Call – looks at the market response to words from the Fed’s Lael Brainard overnight, who talked about balance sheet reduction, possibly as soon as next month, at a faster pace than before. The Fed minutes today might add more substance to interest rate expectations, whilst two members of the RBA front a senate hearing today, where questions will not doubt be asked about the sudden pivot in policy signalling. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 5th April 2022The hope of peace in Ukraine is slipping away as more evidence of war crimes emerges, suggesting diplomacy could take some time. The Euro fell as expectations rose for more sanctions against Russia, which also pushed oil higher. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says negotiations are continuing though and we shouldn’t underestimate the chance for some sort of truce to be found. Meanwhile, inflation remains a global concern, particularly in the US. The inverted yield curve is also a cause for consternation. Tapas suggests the FOMC should have moved sooner on rates and speculates that the RBA will be watching and learning. Will the word ‘patience’ disappear from today’s RBA statement? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 4th April 2022Non-farm payrolls gave the hawks at the Fed the ammunition they wanted, and bond yields have responded. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the data on Friday has cemented in the expectation of a 50bp rate hike at their next meeting. The ECB is still reticent to talk about bringing their schedule forward, even though Friday’s Eurozone inflation numbers were a lot higher than expectations. Today we get to hear how the BoE’s Andrew Bailey expects to balance rising inflation against an economy that has already slowed (possibly to zero). And what of the RBA? Will tomorrow bring a signalling of a faster path to a rate hike? Also today, has oil fallen too far? The situation in Ukraine looks like it won’t end soon, yet oil is less than 10% higher than before the invasion. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 1st April 2022There’s a hefty emphasis on oil and gas this morning. Putin is demanding payment in Roubles from today, but there seems to be some caveats and so the impact isn’t as pronounced as you might expect. More significantly, President Biden has announced a six-month commitment to a daily draw down from the US strategic oil reserves. Will it be enough to make a difference? NAB’s Ken Crompton says the markets seem to think so, with a significant fall in the WTI price this morning. Also today, we look at China’s PMIs, which are firmly in contraction territory as they pursue their zero-COVID policy. And tonight, non-farm payrolls, where the focus might be more on wage inflation than the jobs numbers themselves. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 31st March 2022There was hope in market pricing earlier in the week that some sort of resolution over Ukraine could be sought soon. But those hopes faded when Russia started bombing regions it had indicated it would pull back from. Today, oil prices are back up and US equities have been hit hard. It’s not all down to Ukraine though. Inflation rates in Germany and Spain are through the roof. As NAB’s David de Garis points out, they have risen more in a month than Australia has seen in a year. That presents a special challenge for the ECB, who have to control inflation in an environment where consumers will be facing a cost-of-living squeeze. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 30th March 2022Markets have responded perhaps a little too favourably to peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey overnight. There wasn’t a concrete outcome, yet the Euro is riding high, stocks have risen sharply and bund yields are up. NAB’s Ray Attrill says even if some sort of resolution is found soon, sanctions will remain for some time to come. Meanwhile, front end yields continue to rise in the US as more Fed speakers talk-up the prospect of a 50 basis point hike at the next FOMC meeting. We saw a brief 5-10 year yield inversion, but blink and you missed it. Also today, NAB’s Ivan Colhoun talks through Josh Frydenberg’s pre-election budget. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 29th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There’s continued volatility in US bond markets, with significant flattening of the yield curves. Is this flagging a future recession? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the direction of travel is looking that way, although it’s too early to tell. But the rise in 2-year yields shows that markets are expecting a more aggressive stance by the Fed, whereas in the UK yields are falling after the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey indicated a less aggressive stance on rates given the cost of living squeeze the country is facing. Also today, how the Bank of Japan is tackling rising bond yields, the reasons behind today’s sharp fall in oil, what will Australia’s retail numbers show today, and what to expect from today’s budget (beyond what has already been made known). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 28th March 2022The sell-off of bonds continues, with a further spike in yields at the end of last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s because there is heightened expectations that the Fed will lift rates even faster than previously thought, possibly even four 50 basis point rises this year. Yet the share market – in the US and Europe – continues to rise. We look at why in this morning’s podcast, plus Shanghai in lockdown, how the Yen has lost its safe haven status and the ongoing impact of the war in Ukraine. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9It's a very mixed and confusing day today. “It’s rare that you see equities and bond yields rise at the same time”, says NAB’s David de Garis, but maybe markets have optimism that the Fed’s aggressive stance will put the inflation genie back in its bottle. Or investors are a little unsure where to park money right now. Or, perhaps, investors see anything in the US to be safer than Europe, where inflation will be driven higher through fuel shortages. Meanwhile, PMIs are a little softer but still in growth territory, most notably for services in UK and the USA, a reflection of a braver stance on post-COVID re-openings. The major currency move has been a fall in the Yen, reflecting the widening gap between yields between Japan and the US. In amongst all the confusion, the Aussie dollar is holding its own. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 24th March 2022Bond yields have come back a fair bit today. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s just a recalibration after the massive hikes we’ve seen over recent days. The tone from the FOMC certainly hasn’t changed. Meanwhile oil prices have risen sharply, in part because President Putin has threatened that Europe should pay for gas in Rubles, rather than dollars or Euros. If it’s an attempt to get the West to roll back on sanctions he might be disappointed, with Biden meeting with the EC, NATO and G7 over the next day or two, where the one question on everyone’s mind will be, “what do we do next?” And for an early sign of the impact of the war on Europe, the UK and USA, flash PMIs are out later on. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 23rd March 2022Just three weeks into March and US two-year bond yields are up 74 basis points, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, on today’s Morning Call. Will the Fed be happy to see the market responding in this way, particularly as there’s less growth later in the yield curve? Does that suggest there are some concerns about whether Fed can keep inflation in check, without causing a recession. What does history tell us about the chances of that happening? Meanwhile the Yen is a casualty from all this bond action, with their central bank a long way off any sort of tightening. And the rise in oil prices has stalled today, we look at the reason. Today, UK’s CPI is the main set of numbers. Inflation and more of it. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 22nd March 2022Bond yields have moved sharply higher as markets expect the Fed to move faster on rate rises and, potentially, drawdowns on the balance sheet. After Jerome Powell spoke overnight, NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s now a much stronger expectation that April’s meeting will see a 50 basis point rate hike and, perhaps, the same again at the next meeting. Could the ECB also be stepping up its plan of action? Christine Lagarde talks later today. Inflation worries won’t be helped by the rise in oil prices, with no obvious short-term solution. An increase in production from Saudi Arabia seems unlikely because they are upset about the US withdrawal of arms sales over the war in Yemen. The Ukraine crisis looks set to continue, and any step up in action by Russia could increase the extent of sanctions including the possibility of an oil ban by the EU. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 21st March 2022Nobody really knows how the war in Ukraine will play out, but we kick off the week with reports from Turkey that an understanding between Ukraine and Russia might be closer. There’s even speculation that the two leaders will meet face to face – obviously at opposite ends of a very long table. On today’s Morning Call Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the market optimism right now, with equity markets rising despite the prospect of many rate hikes this year. Supply chain disruption looks set to be with us for longer, with more lockdowns in China over the weekend. But it's the words from Fed speakers that will be the focus of attention at the start of the week – will they support the hawkish stance of the FOMC last week or try to rein back a bit? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th March 2022After a very hawkish Fed yesterday, the Bank of England has presented a much more guarded approach for the rest of the year, whilst delivering the third interest rate in a row. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about why the central bank has a reluctance to signal too much right now. Meanwhile, are markets concerned that the Fed is moving too fast? There’s discussion about Aussie unemployment numbers too and what the strong numbers mean for the RBA. The Bank of Japan is the next central bank, but inflation driven by a tight labour market is much less of a concern for them. Oil prices are rising as hopes of a rapid end to the war dissipate but there are still irons in the fire, including talks between President Xi and President Biden. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 17th March 2022The Fed has met, they’ve lifted rates in the US, and given a hawkish outlook for rate increases this year and next, with a terminal rate of 2.8 percent by the end of next year. The statement and subsequent press conference left some questions unanswered. NAB’s David de Garis points out how they plan to get inflation under control without unemployment rising, even by the end of 2024. Markets reacted swiftly to the announcement, with sharp rises in front end yields. The Bank of England meets later today, and inflation numbers overnight highlight the size of the task ahead for the Bank of Canada. And oil prices are falling as hope remains that a solution can be found to the war in Ukraine. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 16th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Chinese equities have been hit hard again today, despite data showing very strong retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s a mix of increasing COVID cases, causing more lockdowns, and China’s position over the Ukraine war. They want to keep the peace with Russia without attracting sanctions from the west. Is it a sign of the shifting balance of influence that China is negotiating with Saudi Arabia to buy oil in Yuan? Besides the war and COVID, inflation is still a major concern, with the FOMC meeting in less than 24 hours. 25 basis points is more or less locked in, but it’s the rate of future rises and the associated commentary that will attract attention in these uncertain times. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 15th March 2022China and the US have been meeting, with the hope that talks can resolve the war in Ukraine. But China is showing little sign of offering total support for the west. NAB’s Tapas Strickland wonders whether they’ll need to, with talks between Russia and Ukraine at least offering the opportunity “for an off-ramp” from the conflict. Oil prices have fallen today, mainly because of further lockdowns in China as the country continues to pursue a zero-COVID strategy. That’ll add to supply chain problems, which will further add to inflation pressures. No surprise then that bond yields have risen sharply ahead of the FOMC later this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 14th March 2022Fighting got very close to the Polish border over the weekend, with Russian attacks on a training base. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s hard to see the volatility across all asset classes calming down as the uncertainty in Ukraine remains. Although talks are ongoing there has been little grounds for hope so far. This makes it all very tricky for the FOMC, whose members will be submitting their dot point predictions for future rate rises, in an environment where inflation is rising and consumer confidence is falling. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 11th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The war isn’t going to end anytime soon. That was clear with the high-level peace talks on Turkey breaking down after just 90 minutes, acting as nothing more than a conduit for untruths. That’s partly why we’ve seen a shift back in sentiment. The risk-on mood yesterday was a one-off. On the podcast today NAB’s David de Garis talks through the other big turnaround – the attitude of the ECB, who have speeded up their tapering schedule and the opened the door to earlier rate hikes. As a result, there have been sharp moves in peripheral European bonds, such as Italy, Greece and Portugal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 10th March 2021Looking at the markets this morning you might be mistaken for thinking Vladmir Putin had resigned, but sadly not. The war is still on, and just as messy as ever, but equities have risen, oil is down and bond yields are rising. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks us through this broad reversal in risk sentiment, which he says is being driven by a number of factors, but nothing concrete. There’s also discussion about the ECB meeting today, and the EU’ s plans to issue bonds to reduce dependency on Russian resources. Plus, did Philip Lowe’s speech yesterday indicate a rate rise from the RBA this year was more likely, or less? And US inflation numbers tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 9th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Markets have been encouraged by a possible solution to the Ukraine crisis. The Kremlin had suggested a raft of measures, including a ban on NATO membership. Today, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy suggested NATO wasn’t a priority. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the hope that a peaceful solution might be possible saw a strong risk-on mood hitting markets – although the Aussie dollar is down. Commodities continue to rise, of course. And the EU is meeting this week to discuss the issuance of bonds to cover spending on arms and to end a reliance on Russian energy. Also on today’s podcast, NAB’s Ivan Colhoun talks through yesterday’s NAB Business Survey. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 8th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Day 12 of the war in the Ukraine brought more violence and uncertainty. Russia’s offer of a temporary ceasefire so residents could escape was given short shrift when it was clear the escape route was to Russia or Belarus. It was a strong risk-off session across all asset classes, with Brent getting over $139 for the first time since 2007. The Aussie dollar has lost a lot of ground, with NAB’s Ray Attrill saying the US dollar is now the pre-eminent safe-haven currency. Even the Yen has failed to perform its traditional safe-haven role, demonstrating how far and wide the impact of the oil price shock is having on global markets, with no signs of a way out anytime soon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 7th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9For a while over the weekend it seemed like Vladimir Putin was suggesting the west had already declared war with it imposition of sanctions, but, in context, he was really saying it was like a declaration of war, but a no fly zone would be a declaration of war. Whilst that’s a relief, we can all do without that sort of escalation, the uncertainty of the future outcome remains and we can expect more volatility this week as the fighting continues. Today Tapas Strickland talks about the impact of rising commodity prices and the response from central banks, including the ECB that meets this week. Australia meanwhile, seems to be enjoying the benefits of distance from the trouble in eastern Europe, with the Aussie dollar almost 5 percent up on the Euro over the last week. How long will this last? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday4th March 2022The Aussie dollar was one of the winners today, even as the US dollar lurches to highs not seen since the early days of pandemic. It’s been driven by demand for coal and iron ore, as almost all commodities respond to the shock of supply cuts from Russia and Ukraine. Jerome Powell was back on Capitol Hill today, again reiterating the need to control rising inflation. Jobs continue to be part of the problem (with the ISM read overnight showing a fall in services employment) along with rising commodity prices. NAB’s Gavin Friend points to studies from the NY Fed, one noting that the global supply chain pressure index eased in February , a sign, he says, that global supply chains will repair. The question is, how quickly? The ISM numbers overnight didn’t show any improvement. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 3rd March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9It almost seemed like business as usual for markets overnight. Equities rebounded strongly and demand dipped for bonds, pushing yields higher. As NAB’s David de Garis remarks, it all seems a little topsy-turvey. Investing in shares doesn’t seem a logical choice as the Fed chairman indicated that the path of rate rises in the US will continue unabated, just as the Bank of Canada lifted its rates for the first time since the pandemic. But away from equities, there are still clear signs of disruption from Ukraine, with oil prices continuing to increase, coal rising higher and wheat prices soaring. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 2nd March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9'What a night for market moves', says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, on today’s Morning Call. With no sign of an easing of the conflict in Eastern Europe, risk sentiment has risen sharply in the last 24 hours, with bond yields way down, oil peaking higher, the US dollar gaining strength and huge volatility on equity markets. Oil prices are rising even without export bans because trade houses are reluctant to touch Russian cargo. Today we look at how the uncertainty will translate to central banks. NAB’s Ivan Colhoun says the RBA continues to be patient, given that inflation is not as strong as elsewhere. Like all other central banks they will be factoring in the uncertainty from the war. The Bank of Canada might moderate their plans tonight on that basis, and Jerome Powell will be asked for his approach when he fronts up to the House Committee in the US later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 1st March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The sanctions against Russia are taking their toll on Russia, with moderate contagion to the rest of the world, but its early days. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the reaction in markets highlights how much more Europe is exposed, with increasing demand for US dollars. On today’s podcast there’s discussion about the impact on markets, who is exposed to risk, whether prices reflect an event which could rapidly escalate, the role China will play and the fate of the Aussie dollar in the midst of all this. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 28th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There will be a shift back from the optimism of Friday, when markets were responding to the weaker-than expected sanctions being imposed on Russia. That’ll change today as access to the Swift system is denied to most Russian banks. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this, and the limitations on Russia’s central bank to make use of its foreign reserves, will have a profound effect on their economy. In today’s podcast he talks through the flow-on effects for other economies, including Australia and emerging markets. Can we expect a stronger US dollar for longer? And how will it impact the roadmap for central banks? And should we be seriously contemplating the risk of stagflation in the global economy? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The Russian President surprised many with his broader attack on Ukraine yesterday. The UK Prime Minister called it Putin’s ‘squalid venture’, before announcing further sanctions, repeated by Joe Biden, including freezing more bank assets, stopping Russian trades in pounds and dollars, and ending a dependency on Russian oil and gas. The aim is to squeeze Russia out of the global economy, but that’s a long-term game in what could be a very short war. Today NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the market impact, the influence of China, the inflation concerns and the likely response by central banks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 24th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy has the words ‘Don’t Panic’ emblazoned on the front. NAB’s David de Garis is more familiar with the words of Lance Corporal Jones, who frequently offered the same advice. It seems markets have taken that advice for now, perhaps because there’s been no significant deterioration in the Ukraine crisis. Still, oil prices are up, and equities are down, but the focus has, by and large, switched back to concerns about inflation. The RBNZ only lifted rates 25 basis points, but they have raised the terminal rate and expectations for a faster track this year. Australia's slower wage inflation came in as expected, supporting the RBA’s more patient approach, whilst more ECB members are getting nervous about inflation growth in Europe. Rising prices are hitting consumer confidence there. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 23rd February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The news over Ukraine overnight is confirmation from Putin that he supports separatists who want to take control over the wider Donbass region, which could see Russia invading further into Ukrainian territory. The market response so far has been fairly measured, but an escalation could see the West move beyond the current sanctions. One of those sanctions is shelving approval for the Nord stream 2 pipeline, which arguably hurts western Europe more than anyone. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the geopolitical uncertainty could dissuade the RBNZ from contemplating a half percent rate hike today. Australia’s wages data is out later today. Whatever the final number it will be well below the rises seen elsewhere, perhaps justifying the RBA’s more patient stance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 22nd February 2022Will Putin’s declared support for separatists in the Donbass region be the false flag event the West has been concerned about? Does that mean an invasion is imminent? Market reaction hasn’t been strong so far, except for a rise in oil prices, but maybe that’ll change as the US returns from the President’s Day holiday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the actions overnight has certainly reversed the optimism yesterday, when a diplomatic solution looked more hopeful. Meanwhile, PMIs in Europe were really strong, which will add to the inflation pressures and could lead to a more hawkish ECB. US PMIs are out later on, and we’ll Christopher Kent from the RBA later today. What’s he going to say about QE and interest rates? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 21st February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There’s more uncertainty in the markets as tensions mount still further over Ukraine. Words from Biden and Johnson won’t help for the start of this week, alongside news that Russian troops on military exercises in Belarus are not going home anytime soon. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says conflicts often have a short-lived impact on markets, but wonders whether this will be different, given the scale of it and the inflationary impacts it would have on Europe. Meanwhile, words from the Fed’s John Williams over the weekend have reduced the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate hike in the US next month. And for those looking of hard numbers there’s a plethora of PMIs, except the US, where it's President’s Day today. Plus why NZ bonds could be in demand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.