Kontrarian Korner

On Friday afternoon I had Rudy Havenstein and Robert from Infranomics on the podcast. We talked about recent events in the Middle East and the disruptions that are coming, the political situation and midterms, and why the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. I thought the most interesting part of the conversation was the back and forth on the political system. I wasn’t able to convince Rudy that the US should have a monarchy, but we all agreed that the system is very broken today. You can find Rudy’s Substack below, and he’s a must follow on Twitter. You can find Robert’s work on Twitter as well as his YouTube channel. Podcast Summary* How the recent events will feed into supply chains, inflation, and the complacency in financial markets. * The political interference with financial markets, and the pattern of jawboning the markets.* Why the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and why all roads lead to the big print.* Why they aren’t surprised by the effectiveness of the Iranian resistance and why Rudy thinks this could be a rerun of the Iraq war. * The problem with the mainstream media environment and the propaganda environment on social media. * How the midterm elections might turn out after the recent adventure in Iran and that abandonment of most of Trump’s campaign agenda. * Anarchotyranny, frontier justice, and fix it politics.* The push to reindustrialize the US and undoing some of the side effects of hyperfinancialization. * The potential for a completely different political system, and why the system can’t be reformed through the system.* The pros and cons of monarchy versus the current system.* Book Recommendation: Sinister Forces by Peter Levenda.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had John Polomny back on the podcast to talk about where he sees opportunities in financial markets and how recent events in the Middle East play a part in where those opportunities are. We also talked about some of the changes the US needs to make, why they will be difficult if not impossible, and several other topics. You can find John’s Substack below, but you can also find him on Twitter, and his weekly market updates on YouTube are a must watch. Podcast Summary* The supposed ceasefire in the Middle East, and the unavoidable supply chain disruptions that are already baked into the cake with recent events in the Strait of Hormuz. * Why he has unwound some of his energy exposure over the last couple days, and why agricultural commodities are an opportunity.* Adding to some of his positions in precious metals, why it’s a buying opportunity, and the long term secular drivers for gold in particular.* The series of events that he would have to see to be convinced that the US has control over the Strait of Hormuz. * Why the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and the only two choices are the big print (yield curve control) and letting rates rise. * The problems with US industrial policy and why it will take longer than most people think to course correct.* Why the US won’t exist in its current form in 10-15 years and the soft secession that is already happening. * Opportunities in emerging markets, base metals, and other places to look for potential investment.* Book Recommendation: How To Be Rich by J. Paul Getty.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Dexter White on the podcast as the perfect follow up to Tom Luongo on Monday. This was before the ceasefire, so we will see how that plays out and how markets react. We talked about the Strait of Hormuz and other international choke points, some of the nuances of AI and the media environment, and the national security importance of the great power competition with China. For anyone interested in a look at some of the most important topics facing the US right now, this one is worth a listen. You can find Dexter on Twitter and at Gold Goats n’ Guns. Podcast Summary* The situation with the Strait of Hormuz, what it means for the US, and the various supply chains that are impacted by it. * The nuances that are involved with the situation in Iran, and the lack of second and third order thinking from different media personalities.* The legal problems facing Netanyahu, and why Israel has influence, but they aren’t the only driving force behind the recent operations in Iran. * Why the US approach to China’s access to energy is a matter of national security. * The different islands in play in the Strait of Hormuz, from Qeshm and other islands in the narrowest part of the channel, and why he wouldn’t be surprised to see US Marines taking Qeshm, Hormuz, Larac, and the other small islands. * The importance of Kharg Island farther north, and why the US has to cut off the flow to reorder the political situation in Iran. * Why the US is targeting different international choke points, and how other countries have benefited from our role as guarantor of global shipping lanes. * The AI spending and the brute force approach of the LLM models that make it more power and data hungry than they need to be. * Why we won’t get AGI until you start working with neural tissue chip arrays.* The potential for data centers to be used for a digital control grid. * Why the waves of layoffs are not driven as much by AI and it’s more driven by the middle management bloat that has built up in the system over the last several decades. * The problems with the hyperfinancialized economy and globalization, how this was tied into the push towards egalitarianism, and the return to a reality based economy.* How the media environment shapes and pushes different narratives.* Where things lead with China, and why the US needs to address supply chain deficiencies rapidly because we are behind on that front.* Canada, why each province is a colonial exploitation zone, and the future of Alberta and Quebec. * Book Recommendation: On War by Carl von Clausewitz.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Tom Luongo back on the podcast to talk about all of the chaos going on in the world. Instead of getting tied up in day to day events, I wanted to pull on the threads of the big picture in our conversation. He thinks that we are near the end of a cycle that has been building for centuries, a fourth turning of a fourth turning if you will. Right now, we are seeing the return of power politics, the rewiring of the flow of money around the world, and the end of the rules based order. For anyone that needs some food for thought on these big picture topics, this one’s for you. You can find Tom on Twitter and his podcast at Gold, Goats n’ Guns. Podcast Summary* The 30,000 foot view of the situation in the Middle East, and why it will rewire the flow of money around the world. * The return of power politics and the end of the “rules based order”. * Why there are no coincidences in geopolitics, and the win conditions for the US in the Middle East. * The power the City of London has over global trade with controls of the levers of insurance, forex, and the Brent oil contract. * The consequences of what has happened so far in the Middle East and what comes next. * Why we will see the old petrodollar system change into a different version after the Iran conflict comes to a resolution. * The future of NATO, Europe, their economy, and why the European powers are chomping at the bit to go to war with Ukraine.* Why he thinks the consensus on Republicans getting blown out in the midterm will be wrong.* A key date to watch: April 28, when the King of England comes to the US to address Congress. * Book Recommendation: Foundation by Isaac Asimov.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday morning I had Tommy Carrigan on the podcast for the first time. I was on his podcast a while back and it was time to return the favor. We talked about current events, the changing media environment and what it means for future psyops, and how new technology could lead to an age of abundance or something a lot worse. It was a fun conversation and a change of pace from focusing exclusively on current events and markets, and if you enjoy going down rabbit holes and talking conspiracies, you will enjoy this one. You can find Tommy’s Podcast on all the podcast platforms, and he’s definitely an entertaining follow on Twitter (when he’s not banned). Podcast Summary* His experience during COVID, and being one of the first to have doctors like Robert Malone and Peter McCullough on his podcast.* The situation in the Middle East, his problems with putting boots on the ground, and the parallels to the Global War On Terror.* The difference in the generational point of view when it comes to current events and media.* How current events and changes in the Overton Window are either a long-term psyop or an emergent phenomenon. * How psyops and conspiracies have a shorter shelf life today compared to a couple decades ago. * The modern day Operation Mockingbird equivalent that is happening on social media and podcasts. * Changes in technology, why we could see power that is too cheap to meter, and the future of AI, and where that leads over the next couple years and for future decades. * Book Recommendations: Base Nation by David Vine & The Generals Have No Clothes by Will Arkin.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Veles back on the podcast for the first time since last March, and it was one of the rare episodes that I listened to the whole thing while editing it last night. We obviously talked about recent events in the Middle East, but he made a compelling case that both sides are pulling punches by refraining from destroying electricity infrastructure and desalination plants. If you want a podcast that talks about the different competing factions of the elite and the birth of a new economic system, among other topics, this is the one for you. You can find Veles on RogueNews, where I also have a weekly show. Podcast Summary* Why some of the recent chaos in the Middle East is an opportunity to clean house for some of the governments.* The US and Iran pulling their punches, despite all of the infrastructure that has been damaged or destroyed. If it was total war, we would have already seen power infrastructure and desalination plants being hit.* The “laundry fire” on the USS Ford, and how it is out of commission for over a year for repairs.* Why it is near impossible to know exactly what is happening on the ground right now with the propaganda flying in all directions.* Why Iran has been heavily targeting GCC countries instead of focusing as heavily on Israel. * The importance of Kharg Island and Iran’s distributed network approach to launching missiles and drones.* The problems with putting boots on the ground, and why we won’t know all of the details about the US strategy for years. * Why Congress has to get involved at the 30 day mark of the conflict (9-10 days from now)* How the conflict with Iran is targeting the London Corporation, and it’s not just Israeli influence.* The economic systems breaking down and how we have all been caught up in the competition between the different elite factions over the last decade.* Why the layoffs at major corporations are not driven by AI (at least for now) and how it will push down the value of labor and certain goods and/or services. Physical assets are the only thing that are immune. * How we could see western Canada break away from the eastern part, and what that would mean for the US and the City of London.* Why we could see the global economy moving away from a system of scarcity, and building out the power grid with nuclear.* Why AI data centers need nuclear power as much as nuclear power needs the data centers, and how some of the companies building these operations have used the buildout to secure water rights. * The difference between world models and language learning models. * How the US is planning to lock down the sphere of influence across North and South America, and what it means for trade, tariffs, and our Navy patrolling global shipping lanes.* Why the US is planning to remove ourselves from the Middle East, after some resolution is reached in the current conflict.* How the US move on Venezuela has cut Cuba off from oil, and what that means for Cuba moving forward. * Why the international debt load is unsustainable and monetization is coming, and why CBDCs are one path for that. * The importance of having a turbulent period before a new economic model can be put in place, and why the conflict with Iran is one phase in that period.* Why major economic and financial market events tend to happen in October, and why physical assets is where he is hiding out. * The importance of having physical books and DVDs because moving forward online information or content might not be reliable.* Book Recommendations: Beyond Atlantis: Vestiges of the World’s Lost Civilizations by Mark Carlotto & Entitled: The Rise and Fall of the House of York by Andrew Lownie.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had Dave Collum back on the podcast to rant about the state of the world and everything that has been going on lately. It’s been too long since I had him on the podcast and it was fun to chat with him about the situation in the Middle East, the competition between factions going on in the Trump administration, and the structural problems with financial markets. We were able to mix in some optimism on a couple topics despite all of the crap that is flying around lately, but for anyone interested in the intersection of current events, conspiracies, and markets, this one is for you. You can find Dave on Twitter (and under his desk, as he likes to say). Podcast Summary* The Joe Kent departure and his podcast with Tucker Carlson and how it shows some of the competing factions inside the Trump administration.* The legitimacy issues that our institutions are facing.* How social media accelerates narrative changes, the divisions in society, and identity politics. * The various psyops and conspiracies, including if Netanyahu and other prominent Israeli leadership are actually dead, and how the shelf life of conspiracies is getting shorter and shorter.* Why he thinks we have already crossed the Rubicon in Iran and Israel as far as causing serious problems for energy markets and supply chains.* How targeting desalination plants could lead to a collapse very quickly.* The potential for US boots on the ground, and why it makes sense to prepare and stockpile food and other things with some of the supply chain problems we could see.* The structural problems with the hyperfinancialization of the economy and markets, private equity and private credit, and other things that need to be fixed.* How the US needs to significantly change the economic system and incentives, and why he thinks things need to wash out first.* The economic distortions that have happened over the last several decades.* Why real estate needs to get cheaper by price instead of trying to manipulate affordability by lowering rates.* His thoughts on the precious metals selloff and where there might be opportunities.* The technological changes coming for the financial system and how we have been resisting creative destruction. * Book Recommendation: Rage In The Republic by Jonathan TurleyKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Moritz Bierling on the podcast for the first time. We talked about the competing elite factions, how the conflict between the US and the British Empire has evolved, and where the world will go from here. He also got into the importance of having a positive vision for the system that should be built, and several other civilizational and cultural topics that are top of mind for anyone paying attention to the rapid changes that have been happening since 2020. It was a great conversation for anyone interested in the high level view for where the West is headed over the next couple decades. You can find Moritz on his website, Modern Minuteman, and on Twitter. Podcast Summary* The different groups in the upper class, and how they are distinct and what incentives they have. * The competing elite factions, and the different groups in the US and Europe.* How the remnants of the British Empire have used soft power and influence after WWII. * Why the right wing has to develop a positive view of what should replace the current system. * How the conflict between the US and Britain has changed since the Revolution.* The deterioration across the West after WWII, and how losing a huge portion of that generation’s men in the war has had ripple effects that we feel today. * Why it’s important for people to understand the history and the cultural and legal foundations of their civilization.* The problems with the legal system, and how people should examine the local court system to see where some of the problems are in their area. * How 2020 and COVID is the dividing line from the before times, and how the Overton Window has been shifting rapidly in recent years.* Elon Musk, the connections between the technology companies and the existing power structure, and how he has the potential to be the first of this generation’s robber barons. * Book Recommendation: Tribal Future Of The West by Mike Maxwell. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Craig Tindale on the podcast for the first time. For anyone interested in commodity and physical supply chains, it’s a must listen. We dove into the recent events in Iran and their impact on supply chains (not just for energy), and how insurance plays a role in global shipping markets. We also talked about China’s Unrestricted Warfare approach to global commodity supply chains and refining, and what the US needs to do to catch up. Then we spent some time on bottlenecks for the AI and data center buildout, and which commodities investors should keep an eye on with everything going on. You can find Craig on Twitter, and his Substack is below. Podcast Summary* The recent events in Iran, the impact on global supply chains, and how the Strait of Hormuz is kind of the jugular vein of the global trade system. * How the global trade system has gotten more complex over the last several decades, and where that leaves us with the West trying to decouple some of these systems from China.* The shipping insurance industry and the US DFC plans to step in to insure ships traveling through the Strait.* The massive copper demand for building data centers and transmission lines, and the bottlenecks in the West for copper production and the smelting/refining capacity. * How the Chinese have used economic warfare to take control of several important supply chains over the last couple decades, and how that has hollowed out industrial capacity across the West.* How the economic models we currently use can be improved and connected to the real economy.* The AI CAPEX boom, and how the companies involved don’t know if they will see a return on that investment over the next five years.* How Nvidia could run into issues with their new chips as far as deployment and the supply chains for the metal inputs. * Why he’s watching silver, and how you could have a hierarchy of demand with what price different customers are willing to pay.* How Western commodity markets evolved as paper and derivative markets, while the Chinese markets are designed for physical delivery.* Some of the different applications for rare earths, and how the US could address the bottlenecks we currently face.* How the financial economy is extractive of the material economy, and why the material economy is way more important than the financial economy. * Book Recommendation: Secret of the Veda by Sri Aurobindo. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Jordan Webster (Geólogo Trader 🇦🇺) on the podcast for the first time to discuss Andina Copper, where he is VP of Technical Communications. He has a background as a geologist in Australia before moving to Argentina several years ago. We got into each of the company’s assets and the exploration plans they have, along with some of the recent drill results and assays that are pending. We also talked about the recent financing that was upsized. You can find Jordan’s Substack below, but he’s also worth a follow on Twitter. The podcast will be available to everyone on Sunday morning. Podcast Summary* How Jordan ended up in Argentina and how he got involved with Andina Copper.* The 30,000 foot view of the company and how they acquired Rugby Resources.* The Cobrasco Project in Colombia.* The logistics involved in restarting exploration in an area of Colombia that is isolated in the jungle.* Recent drill results, the assays pending, and the geology in the area.* How the area is very underexplored, and the benefits of having Rio Tinto as a neighbor.* The Piuquenes Project in Argentina.* Closeology to Aldebaran’s Altar deposit, and other nearby projects.* Recent drill results, the assays pending, and the geology in the area.* What they have done at the project during this drill season, and how the snow limits access to the project.* The different parts of the project in the North, Central, and East sections. * The Mantau Project in Chile.* Closeology to Marimaca’s project, other nearby projects, and the existing infrastructure that is nearby.* Why they are focusing primarily on the other two projects for now. * The recent financing that was upsized from $20M to $27.5M, and how it sets the company up for the next year.* Podcast Recommendation: The History of the Grasberg Mine.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe