Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday I had Jason Perz on the podcast for the first time, and we discussed the different trends going on in the financial markets. We talked about the commodities complex and which areas he finds most appealing right now, along with the reasons to avoid large cap tech and bonds as we move through this inflationary regime. It was a fun conversation and I’ll definitely be having him back on to discuss how these trends have developed over time. You can find him on Twitter, Substack, along with his YouTube.Podcast Summary* The changing investment environment and what it means for stocks, bonds, and commodities.* The concentration in megacap tech stocks, and how it mirrors past cycles.* How rising energy prices create issues for the broader equity market, and why he thinks the trend for the sector is just getting started.* The different things to look for when it comes to news failures and mean reversion, and how that feeds into a setup for a trade.* How sector equities moving ahead of a commodity signify risk on for that sector.* The gold to oil ratio and why he thinks it will rubber band back to something closer to a historical relative valuation. * Why the trend in the precious metals complex has time to run, and why we could see the move in the miners continue from here.* Copper being one of the biggest opportunities right now, and why he prefers to get exposure through the major ETFs.* Why nickel has the most upside out of all the industrial metals, and why he avoids the LME.* His exposure in the uranium space, and why his current exposure is in the juniors.* Agricultural commodities being the next space to move. * Book Recommendation: The Fountainhead by Ayn Rand.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Giacomo Prandelli on my podcast for the first time. He has an interesting vantage point as a commodities trader in Switzerland when it comes to geopolitics and commodities markets. We talked about the geopolitical chessboard and the tensions between the US, Europe, China, and Russia. We also got into the commodities complex and talked about where he sees opportunities and why it’s important to look at the global picture for each commodity. You can find him on Substack, Linkedin, and Twitter. Podcast Summary* The setup for the geopolitical chessboard, and the increasing tensions between the US, Europe, China, and Russia.* Why he doesn’t think Europe will prioritize the production capabilities for oil, gas, and other commodities, and the fragility of European supply chains.* Why copper and oil are top of mind for him right now. * How he occasionally expresses a view on a certain commodity with directional exposure. * Why it’s important to look at the global picture for the different commodities.* Why he pays attention to shipping, and why he thinks the rising rates in certain subsectors is more due to geopolitical factors than rising demand.* His view on the precious metals complex.* Opportunities in smaller commodities that are off the radar, including nickel and rare earths.* Book Recommendations: The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli and The World For Sale by Javier Blas and Jack Farchy. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Tommy Lee on the podcast to talk about Transocean’s $RIG acquisition of Valaris $VAL . For anyone interested in energy, Tommy is an expert on the deepwater subsector of offshore oil services, and we dove into the transaction, how it deleverages RIG’s balance sheet, and the potential synergies between the two fleets. We also talked about other subsectors of offshore oil services, but our conversation was a good look at the transaction and where the sector is headed over the next several years. You can find Tommy on Twitter, but he’s also working on a service over at Deepwater Insight that he is close to launching. He also has his Substack that is definitely worth a follow. The podcast will be for paid subscribers for now, but it will be available to everyone on Sunday morning. Podcast Summary* How this transaction deleverages the balance sheet for Transocean, and accelerates the potential for capital returns.* Why he doesn’t think the transaction will lead to problems with antitrust issues.* The synergies between the two fleets, and why the estimated cost savings might be a little high. * How the jackup fleet fits into the new company, and why they might look to sell some or all of the fleet in the future.* The view on day rates, new builds, future scrapping, and the potential for more consolidation in the future. * The jackup market and what it means for Borr, and some color on what is going on in Saudi Arabia and Mexico. * OSVs, Tidewater, and expectation for M&A in that sector. * Seismic, subsea equipment manufacturing, and other overlooked opportunities in and around the offshore oil services sector. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports on the podcast for the first time. He’s an independent pollster and a very entertaining follow on Twitter. We talked about his expectations for the midterm elections, geopolitics, and how the generational divide is going to be one of the most important topics for determining the future of the US over the next decade. If you’re not following his work, you should be, and you can also find him on YouTube. Podcast Summary* His thoughts on the midterms, why he thinks it will be ugly for the Republicans.* The Republicans as the party of beautiful losers.* The generational divide and the different perception of the economy, and how that will play a big role in politics over the next decade.* How the US is in a cold civil war right now, and the impact of gerrymandering on the upcoming elections.* America’s view on deportations and immigrations, why the Trump administration hasn’t done enough, and how they could use laws on the books to go after employers* Cultural enshittification, the offshoring and his experience in the tech industry with H-1B visas, and how H-1Bs are a logic trap.* How the feminization of our culture has impacted the US, and what it might take to return to a more concrete hierarchical culture.* The difference between doing things that look good and doing things that are right.* Why he thinks the US and the rest of the world is gearing up for war.* Why he thinks Vance is sitting in a good position for a Presidential run 2028. * Book Recommendation: Stolen Elections by Ralph PezzulloKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI hope everyone is enjoying the long weekend, and I wanted to do a quick update on all of the stuff going on recently, from the talk about Greenland and Canada to the upcoming World Economic Forum and Trump’s speech set for Wednesday. It has been everything, everywhere, all at once on the geopolitical stage so far in 2026, and it’s worth keeping an eye on as this year develops. I also talked about news updates from several companies that I own, along with some talk on silver and the disconnect for the miners. For anyone that prefers to read instead of watching the video, the transcript should be a quicker way to roll through the updates. I also included a link to the podcast I mentioned in the video below.Whirly Bard Interview on Contrarian Codex (for anyone interested in LibertyStream)The first half is on LibertyStream (LIB.V), and the second half is on Comstock $LODE (no position).

Yesterday I had E.M. Burlingame on the podcast to talk about the fast start to 2026 as far as geopolitics and financial markets. We touched on everything from Venezuela, to the Middle East and China, as well as the current political situation in the US. We also got into some of the changes happening in financial markets, and what we could see long-term as far as a complete change in the financial system. You can find E.M.’s Substack below, but he’s also worth a follow on Twitter.Podcast Summary* Recent events in Venezuela, what comes after Maduro, and how it impacts other parts of the world.* Why he thinks Cuba will change on its own, and the potential for the US to buy Greenland. * How certain factions think that Europe is planning for war against the US through Canada, and how Alberta and a potential secession factor in.* Why he’s keeping an eye on Iran and Israel and the Middle East, and the current state of Iran, and the ongoing regime change efforts.* Recent events in Ukraine, the use of another Oreshnik missile, and why a chain of geopolitical events can happen in bursts before pausing for a bit of a reset.* What to watch for at next week’s World Economic Forum meeting in Davos.* The power struggle going on in China, and why they are likely to be the center of gravity in that region of the world moving forward. * China’s economic system of political capitalism and how the US used to have a similar system before 1971. * What the next year holds for the US, and why deportations are a twenty to thirty year problem. * The setup for the midterms this year, and the multiple dimensions of the current political situation.* Why it’s important to focus on the local level, and the importance of the next generation of young men.* The tremors that are becoming more obvious in the financial system, and why the City of London’s ability to price metals (not just gold and silver) is breaking.* Why all metals will probably continue to increase in price, and why he thinks they will try to prop up the broad equity market.* How stablecoins could be used to link the debt market to the rest of the economy.* Why we could see a return to the gold standard in a tokenized system, but why we are probably going to try a tokenized form of cryptocurrency first.* Book Recommendation: The Financialist Kill Chain by E.M. Burlingame.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday, I had Sara (TripleS Special Situations) and Albert Collette on the podcast to discuss the tin market, why it presents an interesting opportunity, and why First Tin is an attractive way to play that opportunity for investors. Sara has experience in the commodities space as an operator and investor in opportunities that are off the beaten path, and Albert is a former board member of the company. Both of them own a decent sized stake in the company, and they lay out a compelling case for the potential upside over the next couple years for the company. If they can get permitting and financing for the Taronga asset, today’s share price is going to look like a bargain. Podcast Summary* A brief history of the tin market, how it was regulated by the International Tin Council, and how today’s setup was decades in the making. * The supply and demand outlook for tin, and why it points to higher prices for the metal moving forward. * Several of the uses for tin, and how there is a structural tailwind for tin demand moving forward. * A high level overview of First Tin and their assets. * Metals X as a large shareholder of First Tin, along with the video Sara mentioned below.* The Taronga asset, what the open pit will look like, and the potential to expand the resource significantly. * The dilution that has happened over the last couple years, and why they both think that the worst of the dilution is behind us. * The expected timeline for the permitting process (first half of 2026 is their expectation), and how EXIM financing will likely follow after that.* Why Metals X could look to acquire First Tin in that window between permitting and financing. * The European assets of the company, and some background on the tin and other critical minerals at Tellerhäuser in Germany.* How Tellerhäuser was discovered during Soviet occupation, and the historical drill results they have from that era, which would have been hundreds of millions in today’s money. * The resource nationalism when it comes to the supply chains for different commodities. * The potential upside for investors if First Tin can advance the Taronga project through permitting and financing.DisclaimerI own shares of First Tin (1SN on the London Stock Exchange). You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI wanted to do a video as a follow up to my post yesterday and talk about recent events in Venezuela, how it might impact different energy subsectors, with a focus on $OIH and $SLB for example. I also took a look at some long term ratio charts for different assets and commodities of interest. I have included links below for stuff I talked about in the video, but it’s worth a watch for investors looking at where money might continue to flow in 2026. Silver: A Broken Market Before a “Reset”? by Cyrille JubertIndonesia to cut mining output quotas to support prices, minister says. -ReutersKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Yesterday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast to discuss everything going on precious metals and his outlook for the sector in 2026. We talked about the recent move in silver, some of the current events, and why he’s still bullish. We also talked about gold leading the whole commodities complex, platinum flying under the radar, but breaking out to its highest level since 2011, and everything else that he is watching as 2025 draws to a close. You can find Vince’s Substack below, but he’s also worth a follow on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The physical shortage of silver in London, how they are caught in a rolling squeeze, and the backwardated market for physical silver.* Silver as a critical mineral, China restricting silver exports, and other shifts in the supply chain for silver.* Other recent events with silver, including the Black Friday blackout and margin raises.* Why he is sustainably bullish on silver for the next several years, his expectations for triple digit silver in that timeframe, and how silver becomes more precious as gold goes higher in price.* How the physical market for silver is starting to assert dominance over the paper market.* The tug of war between silver as an industrial metal vs. precious metal, and the tug of war between industrial demand for silver and investment demand.* Increased investment demand for gold and silver miners over the next 12 months, and why we could see the miners catch up when gold and silver prices consolidate.* The valuation gap between streamers and royalty plays in precious metals vs. the miners.* Why he wants to look at gold miners that are looking to add copper exposure.* His outlook for gold in 2026, why we could see a 10-20% selloff, and why he expects gold to continue to drag the commodities complex higher.* Platinum and palladium as a pair, why platinum still flying under the radar, and how platinum could be ripe for a short squeeze and/or a sustained rally.* Why silver and other commodities are going to go up relative to gold, and why commodities are going to trade at their fundamental natural ratios relative to gold in coming years.* How he looks at ratio charts of different assets, comparing the S&P to gold, silver, and miners. * Gold vs. silver vs. copper, and other ratios he looks at as a signpost to compare where different assets are, and how they can signal a regime change.* The high level view on copper, and why he sees a potential catalyst for a spike in the copper price. * Why oil is going to be the last part of the commodities complex to wake up, and why he’s paying attention to vertically integrated oil producers looking ahead to 2026.* The Fed becoming an arm of the Treasury.* Other things that he’s paying attention to for 2026, including inflation, rates, yield curve control and QE, as well as other asset classes.* Book Recommendations: Absolute Batman & The Tower Of Basel by Adam LeBor.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday, I had PurpleDrinkCapital back on the podcast for an update on what he is seeing in markets. We talked about the recent Fed meeting and broader markets, and we also bounced around the different commodity sectors. He explained what he looks for in the charts and how it impacts his strategy, but it was a great conversation for a broad look at financial markets as we head into 2026. For anyone listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, we were looking at charts a fair bit, so you might want to switch over to Substack or YouTube. You can find his Substack below, but you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The recent Fed meeting, and how it sets up the market from here. * Signs of life in the small caps $IWM and the Dow Jones Transportation Index. * Skepticism around AI CAPEX and the tech sector.* Why he focuses on price action, market cycles, and why he thinks the broader market should be fine until inflation rears its ugly head.* The whole periodic table lighting up as we get rate cuts with relatively stubborn inflation.* What he expects for gold and silver in 2026.* Why he thinks copper will really kick into gear when China kicks into gear.* Why he focuses on bellwethers for different sectors, like Newmont $NEM for gold, Freeport $FCX for copper, and Exxon Mobil $XOM for oil and gas.* What his process looks like, and why focuses on charts as a way to distill where buyers and sellers are willing to step in for any security.* Natural gas, his career experience in energy, and why he hates the sector with volatility and its exposure to weather.* Uranium, the Trump Administration involvement in the sector, and why he likes the setup for the next couple years. * How oil and gas is out of favor, why he likes the setup for back half of 2026, and why he pays more attention to Exxon breaking out than the oil price. * Podcast Recommendation: The Athletic Football Show.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Ross Jennings on the podcast to talk about Millennial Potash. He’s the largest shareholder and owns more than a quarter of the stock, and our conversation got into many of the questions I have received on the company. We talked about everything from the political risk in Gabon, what the company has to do to get into production and how long he expects it to take, to the upside case if the company does get the Banio project online. For anyone interested in the company, this one is definitely worth a watch. You can also find Ross’ writeup on Millennial Potash below.Podcast Summary* A little bit on his background, and how he first got involved with Millennial Potash.* Why he thinks Millennial is as undervalued now as it was a year ago due to the progress the company has made.* Why he thinks port logistics will be resolved in 2026, so the Banio project can produce significantly more than the 800,000 tons/year in the PEA. * How Millennial Potash has a structural logistics advantage shipping into Brazil (which imports 13-14M tons a year of potash), to the tune of at least $20/ton in dry bulk shipping costs. * Why investors should pay attention to the CAPEX and OPEX numbers when Millennial releases their feasibility study.* Comparing Millennial in the future to China’s largest potash producer, QSLI, and the growth in potash imports in China over the last several years.* The nuance of the drill results, why the Banio project offers huge economies of scale, and how it is ideally located as far as export logistics as well as the extraction process. * Why he expects full production in 2028 or 2029. * The political and legislative risk in Gabon, and why he thinks many investors are inflating the risk profile. The government has already been supportive to the company, and they are actively seeking foreign direct investment. * Funding the project with the project financing and a potential offtake agreement, and why he thinks they could begin operations without a massive amount of equity dilution.* The items that could break the bull case, and why a material increase in expected CAPEX and OPEX are at the top of the list.* A discussion on M&A, and the different parties that might be interested in the company. * Why the stock is probably in the process of turning over the shareholder base, and why he thinks it’s valued today at one third of where it should be. * Why he thinks that the Banio project could be producing 5M tons annually in 5 years time.* Book Recommendations: Fooled By Randomness & Antifragility by Nicholas Nassim Taleb & Margin Of Safety by Seth Klarman. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI wanted to do a video this week and get into some of the things that are looking interesting as we look ahead to 2026. I talked about a lot of the different commodities, sector ETFs (including South America), and other commodities that I have started to look at, including tin and lithium. Also, I am having Ross Jennings on the podcast tomorrow to talk Millennial Potash and hopefully dig even deeper, so if you have questions or topics that you want to hear about, feel free to leave a comment or send a message. I think it’s going to be interesting for anyone on the fence on that one.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Yesterday I had Melody Wright on the podcast to talk about all things real estate. We got into the changing demographic trends, institutional and foreign ownership of real estate, and the different narratives around equities, AI spending, and real estate. We also talked about the privatization of Fannie Mae and homebuilder sector, among other things. For anyone interested in real estate, Melody is a must follow, and you can find her Substack below, or on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The problems with the 50 year mortgage idea.* Demographic trends that could have a huge impact on residential real estate, from generational turnover to immigration and potential remigration.* The crosscurrents between property taxes, insurance costs, and affordability.* Investor ownership and foreign ownership of residential real estate, and the problems with government interfering with the real estate market by subsidizing demand.* The generational divide topic when it comes to real estate, and how it gets amplified by social media.* Why she doesn’t think Fannie Mae will be privatized, and the issues from the real estate market that could have an impact.* The issues with the homebuilders and the seller concessions they have been making to move inventory.* Her view on equities, the AI spending bubble, and how it is connected to real estate.* The narratives changing on real estate, AI, equities, and how markets have started to price in narrative changes faster.* Why she thinks we will return to historical norms for real estate prices relative to median income, and the price declines that have to happen to bring that back inline. * How some of the institutions are net sellers of residential real estate.* Rental prices, the overbuilding of multifamily apartments, and concessions on rent.* Where money could flow over the next couple years.* Her thoughts on crypto, and the issues there.* Book Recommendations: The Price Of Time by Ed Chancellor, Bubble In The Sun by Christopher Knowlton & The Swamp Peddlers by Jason Vuic. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had first time guest Scott Osheroff on the podcast. He runs Yurta Capital and is focused on overlooked opportunities in frontier markets and commodities. We talked about his experience traveling and investing all over the world, and why he thinks we will see a capital rotation to markets outside of the US. We also bounced around different commodities sectors, and which ones he finds appealing today. You can find him on Twitter and on Telegram. Podcast Summary* His experience in Asia, Eastern Europe, and looking at opportunities in overlooked areas of the market.* Why we in the early stages of a multi-year reallocation to the rest of the world, and why it doesn’t take much money to move markets outside of the US.* Getting more conservative and the potential for a market correction where correlations go to one.* The torque available in offshore oil services, and the outlook for the next several years.* Precious metals, and how investors all seem to focus on the same handful of ideas.* Avoiding the herd mentality when it comes to commodities.* Iron ore, coal, natural gas, and why the traditional hydrocarbons companies are near the top of his list right now.* The multi-speed global economy, and how different major economies and markets have different policies.* Chemicals, and why he’s paying attention to Chinese policy for that sector.* Agricultural companies, the importance of cheap natural gas for the sector, and why he thinks the gap between US natural gas prices and European prices will converge.* Why he thinks the dollar is in the early stages of a secular decline, and the potential for capital rotation.* Book Recommendations: Burmese Days by George Orwell, How Asia Works by Joe Studwell & Asian Godfathers by Joe Studwell.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Doug Casey on the podcast, and we got into a bunch of different topics across the commodities space and financial markets. We talked about the bubble forming in the tech sector with the AI capex boom, the future of the US, and other things to keep an eye on for the next several years. You can find Doug at The International Man, The Crisis Investing Substack, and the YouTube channel, Doug Casey’s Take. You can also find the new book that he released recently with Matt and Maxim Smith, The Preparation, which provides an alternative experience to college. It’s a book I wish I had when I was in high school. Podcast Summary* The last bull market for gold as it becomes a central part of the financial system again.* Silver and platinum as industrial metals, and why he’s bullish on those metals as well.* The bull case for energy, including uranium and coal.* The future of the US and the breakdown of our political system. * The AI capex boom, how it could change society, and how a lot of the technological developments are net negatives on society. * The different geopolitical brushfires around the world, from the Middle East, to Eastern Europe, Venezuela, and China. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI led off with a quick rant on Sable and the equity raise last week and the 10-Q, but I got into a couple things that I covered in my thread the other day. After that I got into commodities, money rotating into certain sectors, and a couple trades I’m looking at. Energy, OIH & SLB

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comAfter the recent talk of 50 year mortgages over the weekend, I wanted to share my thoughts on the topic and rant a little bit. I touched on a couple things there, and why it’s a bad idea that would only make the affordability issue worse in the long run. It sounds like the government shutdown might be coming to an end here soon, and there has also been talk of a so-called tariff dividend of $2,000. We will see if anything comes of it, but that would just be adding fuel to the inflationary fire. I also spent some time looking at several individual names, and where I might be looking at trades on those.

Yesterday Robert from Infranomics joined me on the podcast to talk about interest rates, financial plumbing, issues facing the US, and how to fix them. We got into the financialization of the economy, distortions in financial markets, and how inflation has eaten away at real wages and purchasing power. You can find Robert on Twitter and on YouTube, and for anyone who wants to dig into financial plumbing, he’s a must follow.Podcast Summary* SOFR spreads, liquidity issues, and what is going on in the repo markets. * His view on interest rates, how the US stacks up with Europe, and why he thinks there will be a debt crisis in France and the UK.* Wealth inequality being worse than it was in the Gilded Age, and the hyperfinancialization of the US economy.* Why he expects higher levels of inflation over the next decade, and why the dollar will be weak against gold and other currencies moving forward. * Wages, Social Security and Medicare, and Home Equity as a percent of GDP.* Hourly wages in gold terms, the loss of purchasing power over the last couple decades, and the increase in deaths of despair. * Potential fixes for the situation the US is in, including stricter immigration policy (legal and illegal), coordinating fiscal and monetary policy to compete with China, reindustrializing the economy, and ending the system that has prioritized capital over labor for the last 50 years. * Book Recommendation: Ages of Discord by Peter Turchin.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comThis will be a bit of a different format, but it’s something that I’m thinking about doing on a weekly basis. I kept it short and sweet this week, but I wanted to talk briefly about why I chose to sell puts on the newest holding instead of buying shares outright. I think it’s worth a look with the elevated implied volatility if you’re fine owning the stock.

Yesterday I had Rudy Havenstein back on the podcast to discuss what is going on in the world, markets, and of course, we also talked about inflation. He’s full of a bunch of interesting information, anecdotes, and stories on financial markets, politics, and current events. Listeners will learn a thing or two and be entertained along the way, but for anyone interested in the intersection of markets, politics, inflation, and the Federal Reserve, this one’s for you. You can find Rudy’s Substack below, and he is one of the most entertaining follows on Twitter.Podcast Summary* Inflation, and the difference between cost levels and the rate of change.* Why there is nothing capitalist about the Federal Reserve, and how what happened in 2008 and 2020 led us to where we are today. * The political divide in the country, and why he criticizes both sides.* Why he expects we will see more politicians like Mamdani.* The religious void in the culture that people are looking to fill, and the campaign to destroy the nuclear family.* Why he is a free speech absolutist. * Private credit, real estate, and the problems with reaching for yield. * Foreign influence over US politics, and how most Americans are anti-war.* Why he doesn’t see a lot of opportunities in the market today.* Why the market won’t go back to allocating capital based on valuations and fundamentals until you put a leash on The Fed and get rid of the notion of “Too Big To Fail.”* Book Recommendation: Weird Scenes Inside The Canyon by David McGowan.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Maxim Benjamin Smith on the podcast to give us the firsthand account he has had over the last couple years as the test subject for The Preparation. We talked about some of his best and worst experiences from his travels, what he will be doing next, and how it has shaped his view of the world. We also talked about where he thinks the world is headed over the next couple decades, and why young men are becoming more right wing. It was a little different from my typical podcast, but if you happen to have boys in middle school or high school and are open minded about alternatives to college, you will enjoy this one. Podcast Summary* The story behind developing The Preparation.* Some of the best experiences he has had, from sailing in the Falkland Islands to becoming an EMT and fighting fires.* His experience working for a junior exploration company in Nevada.* How his experiences have shaped his worldview.* Where he sees the US and the world heading over the next couple decades.* Why young men are becoming more right wing. * The cultural issues facing the West and societal decay.* Book Recommendation: Education of a Wandering Man by Louis L’Amour.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had my friend, Dan Herrin, on the podcast. He’s a longtime private investigator, one of the best storytellers I have met, and has an interesting lens on financial markets. I was able to get a couple stories from his career (he’s got a ton), as well as some anecdotes from his current roadtrip. We also talked about his view on precious metals, energy, and why he’s starting to get optimistic about the path of things here in the US. It was a little bit different conversation from my typical podcast, but I’ll definitely have him back on in the future to get more stories out of him. You can find on Twitter, where he’s a very entertaining follow. Podcast Summary* A couple stories from his time as a private investigator, and several anecdotes from his current roadtrip, and how they tie into financial markets.* His view on precious metals, why he thinks it might be different this time, and how he’s playing it.* Why he’s keeping an eye on oil for 2026, why he thinks things get worse before they get better, and the next leg of his road trip taking him to the Bakken.* The Fourth Turning, the state of the US, and why he’s starting to get optimistic from his interactions with younger generations. * The shift from B.C. (Before COVID) to A.C. (After COVID), and how large narratives have been shifting in recent years. * Book Recommendation: The Road Less Traveled by M. Scott Peck.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Dave Collum back on the podcast to talk about everything going on the world of markets, current events, and we even got into a couple of our favorite rabbit holes. He doesn’t pull any punches and as always, he is very entertaining. Our conversation will have something for everyone, and if you want to find Dave, you can find him on Twitter. Podcast Summary* What he’s seeing in markets, and where he’s actually bullish (precious metals and platinum in particular).* How the current situation is different from past euphorias, and why he calls it a complacency bubble.* The problems that we will see in private equity and private credit.* Passive investment and markets no longer being a price discovery mechanism.* His thoughts on Charlie Kirk, and why he has questions around the official story.* The situation in Ukraine, and why it might continue to drag on longer than we expected.* Israel, the Middle East, and the USS Liberty. * The AI race with China, the circular AI economy, and the Ponzi feel to stablecoins.* The problem with the government taking equity stakes in companies.* Book Recommendation: The Wisdom Of Crowds by James Surowiecki & The Great Courses Series.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Monday (before I got sidetracked over the last couple days), I had Matt Smith @ Crisis Investing on the podcast for an interesting conversation. We discussed their new book, The Preparation, which he wrote with his son, Maxim Smith, and Doug Casey. It will be very interesting for anyone that has a son that is approaching college, and it’s a book I wish I had 15 years ago. We also got into financial markets, commodities, current events, geopolitics, and how it all connects as we head into the Fourth Turning. Podcast Summary* The story behind The Preparation, and why it is worth considering as an alternative to college. * The Patron-Client relationship, the Generational Divide, and the importance of having relationships with older and younger generations. * Where the US is headed, and why we are headed for a monetary reset.* The impact of AI, and how that will have an impact on society and the job market.* The Fourth Turning and the potential for civil conflict in the US.* His view on bitcoin, cryptocurrency, and how some of the recent changes around bitcoin make him uncomfortable. * Why long-term sovereign debt is a toxic asset class.* Gold moving to the center of the financial system, and why Doug Casey thinks this will be the last gold bull market. * How the reshuffling of the global trade system has an impact on agricultural commodities. * How passive investing has created distortions in the market, and why it’s not a price discovery mechanism anymore. * Book Recommendation: The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert Gordon.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Roberto Rios (aka The Peruvian Bull) on the podcast for an interesting conversation on the 30,000 foot view of the macro world. We talked about the Fed and the Treasury, precious metals, real estate, crypto, and everything in between. If you’re interested in the big picture for different assets in the world of currency debasement, you will enjoy this one. You can find him on Twitter and YouTube, as well as his Substack below.Podcast Summary* What’s going on with the Fed, stealth QE, and the lack of demand for long duration bonds.* How crypto and stablecoins have impacted the Treasury market.* His view on precious metals, particularly gold and silver, and how gold front runs quantitative easing. * How the real estate being unaffordable feeds into the Generational Divide, and what the next several years hold for residential real estate.* Why large institutions shouldn’t be allowed to own single family homes.* How demographics and immigration impact the real estate market.* How the structure of the monetary system, liquidity, and debasement drive asset price inflation in the equity market. * His view on Bitcoin, and how it is different from other cryptos.* Book Recommendations: The Storm Before The Storm by Mike Duncan, The Mr. X Interviews by Luke Gromen & The Hidden Hand Of American Hegemony by David Spiro.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had John Polomny on the podcast for a wide ranging conversation on markets and current events. We got into broad markets, opportunities in the commodities sector and international markets, and some of the political shifts on the horizon. If you’re interested in where markets and the world are probably headed over the next several years, you will enjoy this one. You can find John’s Substack below, and you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* His view on broader markets, passive investing, and the overvaluation in the US.* What he is seeing with precious metals, and why he has been trimming some positions.* Why he has a contrarian view on the economy, and why he doesn’t think we are heading into a recession. * How liquidity and sentiment move markets. * The bullish contrarian view in energy and which subsectors he finds attractive.* Why he sees higher oil prices down the line, and why he favors offshore oil services to onshore. * Residential real estate being overvalued, and why he avoids it for the most part.* Other undervalued opportunities in international markets. * The major political shifts happening, and controlled opposition in the media.* Why Europe is in a worse situation than the US. * Book Recommendation: People Of The Lie by M. Scott Peck.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Rob Connors from The Crude Chronicles on the podcast. If you’re interested in the long term picture for the energy sector, his work is worth checking out below. We got into a bunch of different topics, from the peaking productivity rates in the US, the importance of development costs, and where he sees the floor for oil. One of the other big picture topics that is starting to get more attention is the capex boom in the tech sector, and he compares it to oil and gas capex. For anyone interested in energy, you might learn a thing or two from this podcast. You can also find Rob on Twitter. Podcast Summary* His thoughts on OPEC, why today doesn’t feel like a price war, and why he thinks the floor for oil is in the high 50s to low 60s.* Why development costs are a good predictor of oil prices over the long run.* Why the geology is the most important driver of costs versus new factors like steel tariffs.* Peaking well productivity rates in the US and why we are on the last leg for technology advancements and efficiency gains.* The capex boom for the tech companies on AI spending, and capex for the energy sector.* His view on natural gas over the next several years, and why we aren’t seeing a rise in development costs for natural gas.* Why he likes the refiners, and which energy subsectors perform best in different parts of the cycle.* Factors he is watching to see if we are heading into a recession.* Book Recommendations: Apple In China by Patrick McGee, Together We Roared by Steve Williams & Lords Of Finance by Liaquat Ahmed & Trillion Dollar Triage by Nick Timiraos.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Before I spent all of the last two days on the phone, I had Robert Smallbone of The Contrarian Capitalist Substack on the podcast. We talked about his view on what is going on in Europe and the U.K., why he left England and the importance of having a Plan B, and what he sees for commodities and broader financial markets in the future. You should check out his Substack below.Podcast Summary* European politics, the mysterious deaths of several AFD politicians, and the current state of the UK.* The financial state of European governments and European bonds.* His view on precious metals and why they are simplest way to protect wealth over the next several years. * Why he is partial to silver over gold currently.* What he thinks about energy, how devaluation will play a role for commodities, and his view on oil, natural gas, and uranium.* Where he sees equity markets heading over the next several years.* Why there will be a huge opportunity in bonds in the distant future, and why he views them as certificates of confiscation for now. * The importance of having a Plan B and why he left Europe.* Book Recommendation: The Great Depression: A Diary by Benjamin Roth.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Luke Gromen on the podcast for the first time. It was a great conversation on a bunch of topics, from the Fourth Turning to where financial markets are likely headed. We covered oil, precious metals, Bitcoin, and the potential chain reaction we could see from AI. If you’re interested in any of those big picture topics, you will definitely have something to think about. For anyone that isn’t familiar with Luke, you can find him at Forest For The Trees and on Twitter.Podcast Summary* His view on how the Fourth Turning and how things will play out for the US.* How wealth inequality and elite overproduction will lead to rapid changes in our politics and culture.* The crosscurrents between rates, wages, inflation, immigration, and reshoring the industrial base.* Why long-term bonds have been, and will continue to be, certificates of confiscation.* The potential centralization of Bitcoin, and why Gresham’s Law has made Bitcoin less common for transactions.* Gold’s growing role in the financial system as a reserve asset.* The China vs. US power struggle, and why it leads to a lower dollar relative to the yuan, and a higher gold price.* Gold to oil, and why he thinks that ratio will continue the trend of the last 15 years. * The potential to use gold in exchange for oil, with an example of how China might use gold to buy oil from Russia.* How drilling activity in the US is tied to the manufacturing indices, and the increasing manufacturing intensity to produce a barrel of oil.* His view on silver and platinum.* The stock market as a key driver of US tax receipts.* The AI capex ticking time bomb, the depreciation timeline for equipment, and why the hyperscalers might be too big to fail.* The disruptions that AI will create with labor, what happens when AI models are no longer subsidized, and what could happen with energy costs.* How the media environment could have an impact, and how social media has decentralized the narrative.* Book Recommendations: End Times by Peter Turchin & Lords of Finance by Liaquat Ahamed.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Will Tanner from The American Tribune on the podcast. We got into a bunch of different topics, from immigration to the Civil Rights Act and the return of family dynasties. We also talked about one of my favorite long term political topics, which is the change in our form of government to something closer to a monarchy. It was a very interesting conversation, and for anyone interested the long term future of the US and our government, and the potential for a Caesar figure, you will enjoy this one. You can find Will on Twitter, as well as on The American Tribune Substack.Podcast Summary* His big picture view on immigration, and why removing welfare programs and taxing remittances would likely lead to more self-deportations.* The importance of shifting the Overton Window on immigration and other problems in the US that are fixable.* The Generational Divide, and the split between the Right and the Left across the different generations.* The 2028 and why the modern Left can’t backtrack on the insanity of the last decade.* Why land prices and asset prices are unlikely to come down in the US.* Sovereign wealth fund, inheritance taxes, and the different nuances of each.* A return of family dynasties across the US. * Civil Rights Act, freedom of association, and the importance of local politics.* Why an aristocracy is likely to develop, and the differences between a monarchy and a Caesar figure coming to power.* Space exploration as a potential new frontier.* Book Recommendation: Gotham by Edwin G. Burrows & Mike Wallace.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI originally had a podcast guest lined up for yesterday, but work roped him in, so he will be coming on next week. There wasn’t anything groundbreaking from Sable Offshore’s $SOC 10-Q, but there were a couple things worth mentioning in there. I also went into a couple other things with oil, and a couple pieces on broader markets that I found interesting.Podcast Summary* Thoughts on the 10-Q (nothing earth shattering), mainly that they have enough cash to get things started up without further dilution.* Why I’m not worried about the 10 day waiting period that comes after OSFM signoff, and some of the nuances there.* Short interest ticking up at the end of July.* ZeroHedge: How Oil Production Might Help California Meet Its Environmental Goals* Ranting on the recent IEA forecast.* A quick update on Cenovus’ bid for MEG Energy.* Jorge Arjona’s Thread on Oil (a good Twitter account to follow).* Thoughts on what assumptions are baked into market valuations* AI and the massive capex spend, and why I don’t think it will be that much different from previous spending booms.* Tariffs and the restructuring of the economy, and why economists might need to revisit some of their assumptions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOn Monday I went on The Contrarian Capitalist podcast to talk markets, current events, and politics. We spent some time on oil, platinum, my views on Europe and the EU, and immigration, so it was a wide ranging conversation. I have included a link to Robert’s Substack, so you guys can go subscribe to his work.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI spent a good chunk of yesterday on the phone talking with other investors about Sable Offshore $SOC and where things stand there. In the video, I went over the stipulation on the 10 day timeline, OSFM signoff, and the Permit Transfer. I also got into some of the more interesting data points I have seen over the last week on oil, including Diamondback’s $FANG latest letter to shareholders, what’s going on in the Permian with rig counts, frac spreads, and the gas to oil ratio. I also briefly covered a couple other topics, including artificial intelligence, inflation, and the broad commodities complex.Appeals of the Permit TransfersLegal Code On Appealing The Permit Transfer (Why A Tie Vote Reverts To The Original Decision)Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Yesterday I had Tom Luongo back on the podcast to talk about everything going on in the Trump Administration, the Federal Reserve, and on the geopolitical chessboard. We got into tariffs and the recent trade deal with Europe, the Deep State, the impact of stablecoins on the financial system, and the important role gold will play moving forward. You can find Tom on Twitter and over at Gold Goats n’ Guns. Podcast Summary* Tariffs and their impact on his trademark cigars, and reorganizing the global economy.* The European trade deal, and what Trump might have given in return for that deal.* The order of operations when it comes to Trump going after the Deep State. * The state of the Federal Reserve, the importance of the next Fed Chair, and what they will do over the rest of 2025.* Stablecoins, the Treasury, and a potential return to a community banking model.* The state of the oil market, and the reason for the Brent-WTI spread tightening up. * The geopolitical state of Europe, and where capital flows are headed over the next several years.* Gold becoming a more important part of the financial system moving forward, and why the financial system needs more collateral.* Book Recommendation: Chapterhouse: Dune by Frank Herbert.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had Matt Warder back on the podcast for an update on the coal sector. We also got into copper, rare earths, and several other big picture financial market topics. If you’re interested in the coal sector or have some of the individual coal stocks on your watchlist, you guys will like this one. If you’re listening on one of the podcast apps, you might want to switch to YouTube or Substack because Matt shared some charts along the way. You can find The Coal Trader Substack below, but he’s also on Twitter.Podcast Summary* High level view for met coal vs. thermal and why the worst is behind us for both commodities.* Why coal is approaching a trough at some point in the next 18 months for the next 5 year cycle.* How the war in Ukraine and European steel production could have an impact on met coal. * Copper, rare earths, MP Materials, and how the government is going to play a role in several different critical supply chains moving forward. * The ties between natural gas and thermal coal.* At the end we get some of the individual names in the sector and he lays out why he is partial to Core Natural Resources CNR now. * The factor driven rally in recent weeks where high short interest stocks have rallied, which also included the coal stocks. * How tariffs and other political headlines impact the coal sector. * The dollar, interest rates, and other macroeconomic factors that feed into commodity markets. * Book Recommendation: Apple In China by Patrick McGee.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comYesterday I had Wilson from HFI Research back on the podcast to give us an update on the energy sector. We talked about current events and sanctions, what US oil production will look like over the next 18 months, and what OPEC has planned for that same timeframe. If you’re trying to get a feel for what the rest of 2025 and 2026 hold for the energy sector, you will enjoy this one. You can find his Substack below, but you can also find him on Twitter. Podcast Summary* The knee jerk reaction to sanctions on Russian oil, and why they won’t stick.* Chinese inventories increasing, if/when China will stop buying, and Chinese oil demand.* Positioning in distillates (diesel) being at bullish extremes, and how long it might take for that positioning to unwind.* His thoughts on the refining sector, and why it will take some time to see a more favorable environment for refiners.* Associated gas production in the US outpacing crude oil production due to deteriorating well results.* Producers in the Permian saying that their production is going to plateau. Chevron as an example recently revised guidance for higher gas and NGL production and lower crude production.* Why he’s expecting flat US crude oil production into year end.* What US production might look like if oil prices go higher into 2026.* The case for natural gas, and why it’s based on a structural demand increase for LNG.* Why the Haynesville is the only region of the US capable of providing excess gas.* Why Canada is in a different situation when it comes to natural gas, and why AECO (Canadian natural gas) will never trade at premium to Henry Hub (US natural gas).* OPEC, and what they have in store for the rest of 2025 and into 2026, and why he sees WTI heading back down into the 60s later this year.* The signposts he’s looking for as far as Saudi production, OPEC, and US production to get very bullish on oil.* Why things in energy markets get obvious before the price move happens.* Offshore drillers, and the structural supply deficit that is going to benefit from increased offshore capex in coming years.* Oil sands producers in Canada, and why producers with long reserve life assets are attractive.* The political environment in Canada, the offtake capacity being a bottleneck longer term, and why they will continue to consolidate north of the border.* The 2018 blowout in WCS-WTI differentials (Canadian oil prices vs. US).* Venezuela, the waivers for Chevron, Mexico, and other producers that might be off the radar.* The lack of exploration spending, and what it means for oil and different subsectors from now until 2030.* Book Recommendation: Apple in China by Patrick McGee & Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Yesterday I had Charles Spadille on the podcast for a fascinating conversation on the state of the US. He has a background as a federal immigration enforcement officer, so we got into immigration and the impact it has had on the US over the last several decades. We also got into the generational divide, the dynamics between men and women, and the coming “Fix It” moment. Anyone who watches Peter R. Quiñones’ Thought Crime Syndicate episodes should be familiar with Charles, but you can find him on Twitter and Telegram (@whiskeyandashes). No man is exempt his zeitgeist. We all grew up in the world we grew up in, for better or for worse or for good or for ill.- Charles SpadillePodcast Summary* The Dignity Act, and why it basically looks like an Amnesty bill.* The demographic changes that have happened across the country over the last several decades.* The number of illegals in the US and chain migration.* The generational divide, why younger generations are frustrated, and why the grass is always greener.* The dynamics between men and women, how making women equal will fix it, and the difference between work and adult daycare jobs.* The changing priorities of younger generations.* The fix it moment, and why it is inevitable.* Why the fix it moment won’t fix a democratic republic and his thoughts on monarchy.* Book Recommendations: How To Win Friends And Influence People by Dale Carnegie, No More Mr. Nice Guy by Robert Glover & Man’s Search For Meaning by Viktor Frankl. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI have been getting some questions and had a couple of conversations over the weekend on Sable Offshore’s $SOC court hearing on Friday. I briefly touched on the other cases (the CCC and the Permit Transfer), but laid out the importance of the Consent Decree and CEQA in the EDC/CBD case. I also shared some thoughts on why Geck might be trying to thread the needle with the injunction AND the caveat that the OSFM can sign off and Sable can produce after 10 days. My rough estimate for full operations is mid-August, give or take a couple weeks, but the other side is all but guaranteed to play whatever cards they have left. I wrapped up talking about why the next two weeks could give shorts time to exit, and quick thoughts on the options chain, and why some investors are still underestimating fair value. The short term will almost certainly continue to be volatile, but we have some clarity on what the next 4-6 weeks holds as far as jumping through regulatory and legal hoops for Sable.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

On Tuesday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast to cover about recent events, precious metals, energy, and geopolitics. We talked about the return of mercantilism, mineral wars, other big picture topics, and how they feed into financial markets and commodities. You should all follow his Substack below for his updates on precious metals, but you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The trend of deglobalization, and why America needs to become more self-sufficient in manufacturing. * Why platinum has been on the move recently, and why it will take some time to digest the rally over the last couple months. * Chinese demand for platinum, the ties to palladium, and the fundamental changes in the market for platinum.* A couple bold proclamations about a big move coming in silver.* Why gold will drag other commodities higher in coming years.* Big banks favoring gold and copper over silver.* The geopolitical crosscurrents in oil, and the recent media frenzy on the Strait of Hormuz.* Why they wouldn’t close the Strait of Hormuz unless Israel targeted Kharg Island.* The ties between bitcoin and the Treasury market, and the Machiavellian system being built to sell treasuries. * Book Recommendation: Street Smarts by Linda Raschke.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOver the weekend I had several interesting conversations with investors about Sable’s hearing on Friday this week, so I wanted to share some of those thoughts briefly. I also talked about precious metals, including platinum. Offshore oil services and coal stocks have also been moving lately, so I weighed in on those as well. Both sectors are still very cheap today.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is Part 2 of my discussion on Monday with Clay Martin and E.M. Burlingame. This one covers some of the differences between men and women, how to fix the so-called gender divide, and some of the changes that might be on the horizon in coming years. We also got into the future for the US, why the best years could be ahead of us, and how a tax revolt could be a (more) peaceful revolution. If you haven’t had the chance to watch Part 1, I would go watch that first. Podcast Summary* The differences between men and women, and how society has changed the roles of each over the last 200 years. * The health impacts of birth control on both men and women. * Why the birth control pill should be illegal, and why it would fix several problems quickly.* The massive gap between what is right and what is legal.* How the agenda from the media impacts men and women.* Why the relationship between men and women could be fixed quickly after some changes.* Why the best years for the US could be ahead of us, after a messy decade to come. * How a tax revolt could play out, and why it could be the most peaceful path from here. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Monday, I recorded my first in-person podcast with Clay Martin and E.M. Burlingame. E.M. was kind enough to host, and it was a long and fascinating conversation. Clay Martin is a former Recon Marine and Green Beret, and he has also become a prolific author over the last several years. You can find his books on Amazon, and he’s also a very entertaining follow on Twitter. We decided to break the podcast into two parts, so Part 2 will be up tomorrow morning. In Part 1, we covered a bunch of topics, from the recent Epstein circus to all of the other rabbit holes we have been down over the last several years. In Part 2, we get around to solving the rest of the world’s problems. Podcast Summary* The Epstein files circus, and blackmail being one time use. * The health rabbit hole, covering the jab, to fluoride in the water, genetically modified food, seed oils, and everything in between.* The dying mainstream media, the propaganda of the regime, and how Substack and social media will be the new battleground for the information war.* Artificial intelligence (language learning models), some of the flaws that are built into the system. * The state of the economy and financial markets, and how demographics and economics drive things. * The knowledge transfer from the Boomer generation. * Student loans as the largest asset of the government and not being able to default on student debt. * Potential changes in government, and if (when) the US will get a Caesar figure. * The state of military technology and how things develop on that front. * Building businesses outside of the financial market liquidity bubble, and what probably happens to the banking system and financial markets over the next decade.* The demographic state of the US, immigration, and how NGOs and other groups fuel the tension on social media.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOn Friday I had John Polomny back on the podcast, and this time we got into some of the individual names he likes in several different sectors. We talked about oil, uranium, and other commodities, but we also got into several other things that fly under the radar in other markets around the world. At the end of the podcast, I was able to get John going on the state of the world as far as geopolitics and current events. It was fun to go back and forth with him, because the political section of his weekly updates are my favorite part. You can find John on Substack below, and on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The lousy sentiment in oil, and where he is positioned for what he sees coming over the next several years. * We talked a bit about some of the Canadian energy names and their long lived assets, and why he thinks the Canadian energy sector will continue to consolidate. * Opportunities in offshore oil services outside of the main offshore drillers.* Going past peak ESG, the bottlenecks in uranium, a couple different ideas he’s looking at in that sector, and why that sector is ripe for consolidation as well.* The role of gold in the financial end game and a couple mining companies he likes.* Why he thinks it’s an interesting time to start looking at some of the juniors, as well as some opportunities in the royalty sector.* Why silver, platinum, and palladium are going to play catch up to gold.* The financialized economy, the underinvestment in the commodities sector, and his view on gold to oil.* His thoughts on coal, copper, and tin.* Why he’s starting to look into agricultural and fertilizer stocks. * Other places he sees value, like South America, European banks and other obscure ideas in Europe, and under the radar opportunities in China and Hong Kong.* We also went back and forth at the end on geopolitics, US politics, and the state of the world, and why he expects more chaos and volatility around the world over the next several years.* Note: we recorded on Friday, before the US hit three Iranian nuclear sites yesterday. * Book Recommendation: Shareholder Yield by Meb Faber.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Yesterday I had E.M. Burlingame back on the podcast, and we covered a bunch of different topics. We hit on everything from current events and geopolitics, estrogen based warfare, where he sees the US headed over the next several years and longer term, and the hyper-financialized economies of the West. I will be having him back on soon to discuss what he is working on in the health and medicine area, and why it is extremely important for people to understand some of the things that have happened with food and medicine over the last 80 years. You can find him on Twitter (after a return from a hiatus), or on his Substack below.Podcast Summary* Current events across the world, including what is going on in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and here in the US. * Why he sees recent events as part of one big color revolution, and his view on estrogen based warfare.* How the events in Israel and Iran might play out, and why Iran is stronger than many in the West think.* Why the US empire is pulling back due to financial constraints.* The LA riots, immigration, and the prospect for more civil unrest.* The coming Constitutional crisis, the power of judges, and why the local level is extremely important moving forward.* What he sees as the 2026 midterm elections approach.* How the coming generational change might impact the path of the US.* How the events in 2020 and lockdowns were a dividing line for recent events.* Why he thinks America’s best years are still ahead if we can get through the bumpy period he sees coming over the next decade.* The potential for the US to end up in a more hierarchical form of government like a Constitutional monarchy.* His view on Europe and the path forward there.* How technology and warfare has changed, but some important aspects have stayed the same.* What he sees coming for the hyper-financialization for economies across the West.* Why the West has a collateral problem, and how the US could create a sovereign wealth fund* Book Recommendation: The Secret History of Mongol Queens by Jack Weatherford.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Trader Ferg on the podcast again to talk about his big picture view of financial markets. We got into his favorite commodities, his high level thoughts on which subsectors are the most attractive, and his view of the big picture from 30,000 feet. It was a great conversation, and if you aren’t already familiar with his work on Substack, you should check it out below.Podcast Summary* Why he has the most conviction on oil long-term, some of the information sources he follows, and what subsectors he favors.* His view on the important question for energy investors, which is “Can the Permian Basin ramp production again, and if it can, how much production can they bring online?”* Platinum group metals, including rhodium, and Anglo selling the bottom again by spinning out Valterra.* Gold to oil, and why this time might be different if gold is used to recapitalize the system.* What he sees in the coal sector, the royalty regime in Australia, and why he’s partial to met coal names in the US.* Uranium and the potential for a short squeeze.* We went into a couple other metals, and he laid out why he is very bullish on tin and not all that excited about copper.* Shipping and shipyards, and why you have to be careful in shipyards with China’s dominant position in shipbuilding.* Debt, deficits, TLT, and why all roads lead to inflation.* Why he isn’t as bullish on natural gas as other commodities.* Battling the psychological ups and downs in markets and the difficulty of having a long-term view with the short-termism that dominates financial markets today.* Book Recommendations: House of Huawei by Eva Dou & Meditations by Marcus AureliusKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comBefore I get into the post today, I wanted to give everyone a heads up that I will be on the road for a couple weeks starting next week. I’ll be in the Portland area for a couple days starting next Sunday (June 22-25), then in Minneapolis for the back half of next week (June 26-29), and then in Seattle until the 4th of July. If anyone wants to meet up in the next couple weeks and it happens to work with your schedule, feel free to send me a DM.Over the last couple weeks, I have spent a lot of time on the phone trying to get a feel for how Sable Offshore $SOC is going to proceed from here. In the video, I laid out how the next couple months could play out regarding the hearing on July 18, OSFM sign off, and what happens if the company has to appeal to a higher court. I explained the logic behind a recent trade I made, and why I think this thing gets resolved in the next couple months. I also talked about recent geopolitical events between Iran and Israel, what might happen with oil, and how it might impact China specifically.DisclaimerI own shares and calls on Sable Offshore. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOn Tuesday I had PauloMacro back on the podcast, and we covered everything from oil and precious metals, to geopolitics, market structure, bonds, and the risks he sees in different corners of the market. I don’t always listen to my own podcasts a second time, but I had to go back for seconds yesterday. Listeners will definitely get a lot to think about from this one, whether you are interested in oil, the metals, or a big picture view of financial markets. For anyone that isn’t familiar with Paulo, I have included a link to his Substack below.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

On Wednesday, I had Dave Collum back on the podcast. As always, it was an entertaining and wide ranging conversation. It’s worth a listen if you have the time this weekend. We talked the overvaluation in financial markets, some of the non-fundamental drivers, commodities, and private equity. We also covered different problems facing society, from changes coming for the university system, demographics, and more. We didn’t even have time to dive into some of the rabbit holes he has been going down lately, so I will definitely be having him back on the podcast sooner rather than later. You can find Dave on Twitter, and I’m already looking forward to his 2025 Year In Review.Podcast Summary* His view on financial markets, valuations, and other distortions in the financial system.* He mentioned the increasing volume and frequency about the Fourth Turning.* Gold, silver, platinum and his view on the precious metals, and which ones are the most attractive right now.* Entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, and some of the demographic changes happening now. * Feminism, changes coming for the university system, and the connection between private equity and the endowment problem.* The toxic sludge in private equity and private equity and how that might manifest itself in coming years.* We talked about energy and went back and forth on the different arguments on the Permian rolling over, and different subsectors in energy that look interesting today.* Uranium, Coal, and other opportunities in the commodities space that look appealing.* Book Recommendation: The True Believer by Eric Hoffer.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Monday I had first time guest Jesse Felder on the podcast to cover a bunch of different things going on in financial markets. We talked about his view on a commodities supercycle, and why he finds energy particularly attractive currently. We also talked currencies, passive investing, real estate, and several other topics. It was a fun conversation, and for investors with views that are outside of the consensus, it might be interesting. You can find Jesse at his website, The Felder Report, and on Twitter and Bluesky. Podcast Summary* Energy, and his thoughts on gold to oil being at extreme levels.* Which pockets of the market are seeing insider buying.* Why he thinks we are in a commodities supercycle.* Oil equities being more attractive than natural gas at current levels.* Gold and the miners, and why we might see a pullback in gold in the next 3-6 months. * His view on why the dollar is currently overvalued relative to other currencies.* How cheap commodities are relative to stocks and bonds, and how long a commodities cycle might last. * How passive and other forms of investing distort financial markets.* Active management making a comeback in the next several years. * Why we could see stagflation moving forward from here. * The path for interest rates, the potential for yield curve control, and where real estate might be headed over the next several years.* Book Recommendation: The Confidence Map by Peter Atwater.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI had a couple thoughts rolling around my head on Sable Offshore $SOC , along with some visuals that I wanted to share. I’ll keep pounding the table because I think this freight train is about to leave the station.