Kontrarian Korner

On Friday I had Jon Costello on the podcast to focus on the energy sector, and some of the individual ideas he likes in different subsectors and geographies. He writes on the HFIR Ideas side for HFI Research. It was the perfect follow up conversation after I had Wilson on the podcast last Wednesday. If you’re looking for a starting point for your research on some single stock ideas in the energy space, you will enjoy this podcast.Podcast Summary* Jon’s big picture view on energy over the next 6-18 months, and his approach to investing in the sector. * Why he favors the Canadian energy names and offshore oil services. * What happens to North American energy companies with oil below $70 a barrel as far as Capex cuts and production growth. * The impact of the Canadian election on the Canadian companies and the macro picture for oil.* Which Canadian names he likes and why, from the large companies to smaller names that aren’t as widely followed. * British Petroleum $BP and Elliott Management’s activist push to get them to focus on their traditional oil and gas assets.* Offshore oil services, the embedded call option in the stacked capacity of some of these companies, why he prefers the deepwater companies, and which companies he favors in the sector. * He lays out the nuance he sees on natural gas vs. oil, and his thoughts on being bullish on gas being a more consensus view today.* Midstream ideas, MLPs, and which stocks he favors in sector. * Book Recommendation: Descartes’ Error by Antonio Damasio. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Wilson from HFI Research back on the podcast to discuss everything going on lately when it comes to oil. We talked about OPEC, Capex cuts in the Permian, and how he expects the next couple years will play out in the energy space. If you are listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, you might want to switch over to Substack or YouTube so you can see the charts on the video. You can find HFI Research on Substack below, but you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The recent news from OPEC, and why the production cut that is now being unwound was really a Saudi production cut, not an OPEC cut.* Why the OPEC production boost doesn’t signal an incoming price war. * The disconnect between the narrative and reality when it comes to OPEC. * How tariff and macro uncertainty factor into the perception of oil demand for the rest of 2025. * How OPEC is forcing the inevitable, and why he thinks non-OPEC oil supply will disappoint to the downside moving forward. * Capex cuts in the Permian due to lower oil prices, and the disconnect between consensus US production vs. the HFI estimates.* Why he thinks we will see more Capex cuts in the Permian in coming months, especially if oil sits around $60 a barrel. * How all of this leads to a structural supply deficit for oil from 2026 and beyond.* The timing problem when it comes to buying energy equities and the disconnect between the fundamentals and the narrative when it comes to oil.* Why $70 a barrel was the worst case scenario for shale operators.* Why we could see more M&A in the Permian.* His view on tariff and trade deal negotiations, and why he doesn’t see a quick resolution.* His view on Iranian sanctions, and why they won’t be effective.* The Strategic Petroleum Reserve being filled up and why logistical issues mean it will take a long time to refill.* Why natural gas will be the first energy commodity to go into a bull market, and why he thinks we could see a spike in natural gas this summer.* Potential scenarios where the US might have to shut in LNG export capacity in 2026. * What he prioritizes when he is looking at natural gas equities: the lowest cost producers, and producers that are not as hedged. * His thoughts on the challenges of entrepreneurship.* Book Recommendations: The Nvidia Way by Tae Kim, Source Code by Bill Gates & Shoe Dog by Phil Knight.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Andy from Finding Value Finance back on the podcast. We talked about commodities, different ratios like gold to oil, and his long term thoughts on where markets are headed. If you happen to be listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, you might want to switch over to Substack or YouTube so you can see the charts on the video. It was a great conversation and will definitely be food for thought on long term market cycles, and some of the most attractive places to look in the market right now. You can find him at Finding Value Finance, on YouTube, and on Twitter.Podcast Summary* How the devaluation of the dollar impacts how commodities move long term.* The importance of zooming out and looking at long term charts.* What he sees with oil inventories and from conference calls from several subsectors in energy.* The bearish narrative around tariff uncertainty, recession and oil demand, and OPEC spare capacity. * What he sees for natural gas and oil services moving forward. * The gold to oil ratio (more than 55 barrels for one ounce of gold), and why he doesn’t see the ratio blowing out even more from here. * Why he’s still bullish on gold, but finds other precious metals like platinum and silver more attractive at today’s prices.* What he likes outside of energy and precious metals, from lithium to agricultural commodities, coal, and steel.* His thoughts on residential real estate and some of the crosswinds that will have an impact over the next 3-5 years. * Book Recommendation: The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had Michael Every on the podcast to discuss recent geopolitical events and how he views the world. He’s a Global Strategist at Rabobank and a guest that I have been looking forward to chatting with for some time. We talked about important shifts happening right now in financial markets, US and China relations, and how he looks at the political changes and uncertainty around recent events. The best place to find him is on Twitter, where his daily updates on current events are a must read. Podcast Summary* The difference between Economic Policy and Economic Statecraft.* The shift from the primary focus being on what is good for financial markets to what is good for national security.* The state of play between the US and China, and the different pressure points for each country. * Some of the distortions in the Chinese economy, from real estate to manufacturing.* How the financial media distorts the narrative around recent events and tariffs. * The importance of asking the question: “What is GDP for?”* How Europe will be forced to make a decision between the US and China.* How some of the conflicts around the world might develop from here.* US shifting its focus to North and South America and China and pulling back from the Middle East and Europe. * Gold’s role moving forward, and why the US won’t abandon the dollar reserve currency.* How the US could approach a sovereign wealth fund.* Book Recommendation: Trade Wars Are Class Wars by Matthew Klein and Michael Pettis. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had PurpleDrinkCapital on the podcast to discuss what is going on recently in financial markets. We talked about the uncertainty around how things will play out, sentiment on equities and energy, several individual names he likes, and more. It was a fun conversation and his career experience gives him some insight on energy in particular. You can find him on Twitter, as well as on Substack below. Podcast Summary* His view on the overall market and the potential for a Zweig Breadth Thrust.* Overall sentiment on broader markets and the energy sector. * Shale in the Permian being in terminal decline, and why the case for a commodities bull market is growing stronger by the day.* Why he likes Antero Resources $AR in the natural gas producer space and Williams $WMB in the pipeline space.* Why Cheniere $LNG is his favorite in the LNG space. * Some thoughts on valuing commodity producers.* Why he is interested in Bitcoin and owns some Coinbase $COIN . * How financial markets are moving in light of recent geopolitical uncertainty. * How his career experience in the energy space gives him an advantage when looking at ways to express his views on certain commodities.* His views on stimulus on the horizon and how it ties into commodities (and not just gold).* Book Recommendation: The Harry Potter books. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last Friday I had Dexter White back on the podcast to talk about some of the recent chaos across the world. We talked about Trump’s first three months in office, the complicated geopolitical chessboard, and several different aspects of the media landscape. It was a great conversation and will definitely give listeners something to think about on a bunch of different topics. You can find Dexter on Twitter, as well as at Gold Goats n’ Guns. Podcast Summary* Trump 2.0 and tariffs, and the intent behind the chaotic messaging. * The unified message of the media.* The importance of having certain industries in the US, from pharmaceuticals, steel, and military supply chains. * The other motivations behind Trump’s approach to dealing with China.* The Monroe Doctrine or Trumpian Manifest Destiny when it comes to the Panama Canal, Greenland, and Canada. * China’s dominance in drone technology and production. * The ZOPA (zone of potential agreement), the Art of the Deal, and Trump’s approach to negotiations with other countries. * The importance of the fentanyl crisis and the 100,000 people that die on an annual basis in the US. It’s not military tactics, but it is a form of warfare. * The propaganda and the signal to noise ratio when it comes to financial media.* The structural demand change in gold, what it means for the gold to silver ratio, and other commodities. * His thoughts on energy, from oil to gas to coal as well.* Book Recommendation: Unrestricted Warfare by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI want to wish everyone a Happy Easter and give everyone the podcast I promised on Thursday. I talked a bit about the geopolitical situation, the lack of certainty, a couple trends that I am certain about, and some thoughts on oil. Podcast Summary

Yesterday I had Tom Luongo back on the podcast to discuss some of the recent chaos in financial markets. We covered some of the connections between moves in different currencies and markets, the geopolitical picture, commodities, and much more. I assume most of you are familiar with Tom’s work, but if not, you can find him at Gold Goats n’ Guns and on Twitter. Podcast Summary* Why his focus in the cross market moves was the rise in the Euro, British Pound, and the Canadian dollar, not the basis trade. * The problem with believing we have free markets.* How he sees things resolving between the US and China.* Waiting to see how Canadian elections turn out to see what Trump’s approach to Canada will look like. * One of the biggest advantages of the US is access to deep and liquid financial markets. * The progression of spending cuts and what they need to focus on, and why it’s important that they cut off the spending that was being used to try to destroy the US (USAID, NED, etc) first.* His view on commodities, from gold and silver, to oil and copper, and why recent moves there are selling a recession trade. He isn’t sure if that is real or not.* Gold as a safe haven and as the collateral for the future.* Bitcoin, and the Treasury demand driven by the growth of stablecoins. * Europe’s plans for Ukraine, and the progress of the talks between the US and Iran.* The difference between Trump the person and the character he plays on TV.* The budget resolution, the tax cuts, and tariffs, and how they are related.* Why he is bullish on the Russell 2000 longer term if Trump is successful on deregulation and tax cuts.* Book Recommendation: The Chronicles of Thomas Covenant by Stephen Donaldson.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Thursday I had Russell Clark on the podcast for the first time for a great conversation. We talked about the US financial markets looking like an emerging market, how politics drives financial markets, and some of the things he’s watching right now. We also talked a little bit about the launch of his new fund, Brumby Capital. Podcast Summary* How the US is behaving like an emerging market, and how financial market correlations might change moving forward. * Why Treasuries aren’t behaving like a safe haven, and the path to double digit interest rates. * The political drive to rebalance financial markets. * Where things lead for private equity and private credit, especially with higher rates.* The trend of Gold vs. TLT and Gold vs. S&P 500.* Oil, LNG, and the interactions between the different parts of the energy sector.* Geopolitics in the Middle East and Ukraine, and some of the different powerful factions in each region. * Europe and Japan remilitarizing.* Securing supply lines and the change from globalization to deglobalization. * The complicated relationship between the US and China, and where things might be headed from here.* His plans for Brumby Capital, which he is in the process of launching now. * Book Recommendation: Age of Extremes by Eric Hobsbawm.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast again, this time to talk about what is going on between the US and China. It was a fascinating conversation on the tariff situation, what negotiations might look like, and where things might be headed. We also talked about gold, oil, the worst case scenarios for the US and China, and how they might meet in the middle. You can find Vince on his Substack as well as on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The tug of war between how the US debt markets need China, and how the Chinese economy needs the US consumer.* The breakdown in trust leading to a breakdown in credit.* Japan, China, and Europe all taking money out of US markets and bringing it home. * Everyone heading for the exit at the same time, US funds and institutions trying to front run it, and you see those moves in the currencies, especially yesterday. “It’s an FX operation. Are they doing it all at once? No.”* Tariffs are a tool to accelerate some of the changes that need to happen.* How the correlations between different asset classes are changing.* Gold as the pet rock, and the potential for stagflation.* How the China and US situation is likely to play out. * The worst case scenario for each country and working back towards the middle for a potential resolution. * For the US, the worst case scenario is the loss of the US dollar as the global reserve currency.* For China, that is the punitive tariffs and a Chinese Great Depression. * Trump talking about tax cuts and the timeline for resolving things with China.* The nuclear option for China being a return to the gold standard.* The nuclear option for the US is to start a war. * The potential for a financial iron curtain between the East and the West. * What a resolution between China and the US means for oil. * Book Recommendation: The Grand Chessboard by Zbigniew Brzezinski.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Mel Mattison on to talk about the recent chaos in financial markets and Trump’s tariff plan. We talked about how expects a resolution in the next six to eight weeks on tariff negotiations (maybe sooner), and why China is the target of Trump’s recent announcement. We also covered the crosscurrents facing the administration as far as the financial system and geopolitics. It was a great conversation on what is going on today in financial markets, and should provide some perspective on where things might be going. You can find Mel on Twitter, and he’s worth a follow for anyone interested in finance. Podcast Summary* Why he was expecting a pullback in the S&P 500 at the start of the year, why he thinks the selloff could continue into May depending on the path of the tariff talks, and how a rally could be coming by year end. * The crosscurrents of dealing with the debt refinance, tax receipts from capital gains, deficits, and inflation. * Why the US needs to have a more robust manufacturing base, and how policymakers might pursue that objective.* Why China is in the crosshairs of Trump’s recent tariff announcements. * Triffin’s Dilemma, and the tug of war between the US dollar being the world reserve currency and trade deficits, and the move towards a neutral reserve asset like gold.* Why real wages is a focus of Scott Bessent and the Trump administration, and why they might tolerate more inflation. * His thoughts on the commodities complex.* The difference between sharp selloffs and long drawn out bear markets, and what that means for the recovery period. * Why he isn’t expecting the worst case scenario of a Great Depression type event.* The geopolitical chessboard, and why he is more worried about the Middle East than the conflict in Ukraine. * Trump as a showman, and why he will probably decide he doesn’t want to be Herbert Hoover. * Why he cautions against a doomsday perspective when it comes to markets. * Book Recommendations: Lords of Finance by Liaquat Ahamed & Quoz by Mel Mattison.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOn Friday afternoon I had Dylan Marrello back on the podcast for a Happy Hour podcast. We talked about the bloodbath in financial markets on Thursday and Friday, the broad uncertainty around tariffs, and wild swings in the market. He pointed out that Trump Derangement Syndrome might potentially impacting investor’s negative sentiment and the extreme fear that the sky is falling after a couple of rough days. We also talked about the misaligned incentives that have turned 5-6 months into a “long-term” time horizon. I picked his brain on several different sectors, from offshore oil services, to a couple deep value opportunities in the Cannabis sector (one of which is a net-net). He also talked about the potential for changing regulations in the broadcasting sector and the torque that some stocks offer there. He laid out the bull case for his favorite microcap real estate play, and the advantages that America still has, despite some of the recent chaos. There is a lot of uncertainty, shifting global alliances, and no one knows what the next 6-12 months hold. We also got into some of the problems facing the West, and Wall Street’s parasitic relationship with the rest of the US. He’s still optimistic about the US, and pointed out that Trump’s approach to tariffs has been intentionally chaotic, and why the status quo needs to be broken. Trump is the catalyst for change. Something was going to break at some point anyway, and he thought it’s a good sign that someone is actually thinking out further than a year into the future. It was a great conversation that will have a little bit of something for everybody.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

On Friday I had Roger LaFontaine (an alias) on the podcast to talk about what is going on in Canada right now. He writes a Substack called Nugget Capital Partners, which is focused on opportunities in Canadian markets, primarily in the Energy and Real Estate sectors. We talked about the upcoming election in Canada, his thoughts on different stocks in Canadian markets, and what he looks for when evaluating those opportunities. He is an entertaining follow on Twitter, especially if you have any interest in the energy sector. Podcast Summary* What he sees for the upcoming Canadian election, and why he doesn’t think we will see a conservative majority even if Polievre wins. * Why Trump is good for the Canadian energy sector. * “Carbon Tax Carney” dropping the consumer carbon tax but not the industrial carbon tax.* The “in house algo” at Nugget Capital Partners* The total shift in Canadian politics in recent weeks.* The potential to revive the Keystone XL pipeline project. * What he looks for in Canadian energy companies, and his thoughts on buybacks vs. dividends. * Why he’s not a fan of the Whitecap and Veren deal.* Why he likes Strathcona Resources, Precision Drilling, and Total Energy Services as three of his favorites in the Canadian energy space right now.* Canadian real estate, and why there is a big valuation gap between public and private commercial real estate.* Why retail, multifamily, and industrial sectors look attractive right now.* Why Dream Residential, H&R REIT, and Nexus Industrial are three of his favorites in the Canadian real estate sector.* Book Recommendation: The Frackers by Gregory Zuckerman.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Doug Terreson on the podcast to talk about energy as well as his book, Can’t Deny It. It was a great conversation on what has happened in the energy industry over the last 30 years, but we also discussed what he sees coming over the next several years for the sector. Doug had a long career on Wall Street as a renowned oil analyst at Morgan Stanley and Evercore, and is well known for several big calls over the last thirty years. He’s had a hard time retiring and is now on the boards of Phillips 66 $PSX , Third Gear Energy Fund, and Mississippi State University. There are some parallels today to where things were when Doug was making these calls, but if you’re interested in the recent history of the energy sector, you will enjoy this one. You can find Can’t Deny It on Amazon, but you can also find Doug on his website or on Linkedin. Podcast Summary* His background and his career on Wall Street as an oil analyst, and why his best calls were not consensus at the time. * We talk about the book and the stories and setups behind his big calls.* “The Era of the Super Major”, and the consolidation of the industry that followed, which was the biggest restructuring of the industry since the breakup of Standard Oil.* “The Golden Age of Refining”, and what he was seeing with the refining sector in 2003 when he made the call. * His call on oil in 2008, and why he turned bullish on the broad energy sector in November 2020. * The shift in focus from production growth to capital allocation after the value destruction in the shale boom in the 2010s. * His thoughts on the Permian, OPEC, continued consolidation, coal, and the overall state of the energy market today.* Why he likes natural gas and refined products as two subsectors of the energy space over the next several years. * The focus on data centers and what it means for some of the energy companies moving forward. * Book Recommendations: Can’t Deny It by Doug Terreson, The Prize by Daniel Yergin, The Quest by Daniel Yergin, and The Quest For Value by Stern Stewart.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I had John Carter on the podcast to discuss Canadian politics, their upcoming election for Prime Minister, and his thoughts on the long-term future of Canada. We talked about some of the issues plaguing Canada today, and how he sees things playing out. It was also an excuse to talk with him about one of the most interesting Substack posts I have seen in the last year on Academia (linked below). We covered the issues that are already leading to problems, and talked about potential ways to change how universities fund themselves. You can find him below on Substack, but he’s also a very entertaining follow on Twitter. Podcast Summary* The situation with the election for the Canadian Prime Minister later this year between Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre.* His thoughts on Trudeau’s disastrous reign as Prime Minister. * Maxime Bernier, and the People’s Party of Canada. * The Laurentian Elite’s influence on Canadian politics. * The state of Canadian media. * Canadian patriotism being defined by the fact that Canadians aren’t American, and the current wave of anti-American sentiment in Canada. * Alberta as a resource colony for the Eastern part of Canada. * Canada as an unstable coalition of provinces, and the long-term odds that the country breaks up.* The state of Academia, and the gap between men and women in universities. * Why changes in Academia will be faster than expected to the financial state of the average university, declining enrollment, and funding cuts. * Potential fixes for the academic system regarding student debt and endowments. * Book Recommendation: Caesar: Life of a Colossus by Adrian Goldsworthy.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I was able to get Chris MacIntosh on the podcast, and it was a fascinating conversation. We talked about the different cycles that are all converging, the geopolitical situation in Europe, and opportunities in different commodities and South America. He’s very sharp on a bunch of different topics, from history to financial markets and everything in between. If you want to find his website or his Twitter, I have included links below. Chris’ TwitterCapitalist ExploitsPodcast Summary* The current geopolitical situation and the cyclical nature of history.* How different cycles are all lining up right now, from the debt cycle, the monetary cycle, the commodities cycle, and the 250 year revolutionary cycle.* The capital rotation on the horizon, and why gold is typically the first mover on that front.* How the economics in Europe are driving their decision making, why he thinks we will see capital flight out of Europe.* Capital controls, and how they are masked as regulatory controls in Europe. * Why he thinks we could be headed for stagflation and why he thinks this commodities cycle will be driven by supply constraints instead of booming demand.* Energy is typically the best performing asset in stagflationary cycles.* Why they are fairly heavy in the energy sector, which has some of the cheapest assets on the planet, particularly in the offshore oil services space. * How shipbuilders are another constraint worth watching.* The potential supply squeeze setting up in coal, and how coal has been starved of capital for years. * Why he is bullish on South America, and very bullish on Argentina in particular.* Avoiding bonds because of where we are in the cycle.* The formation of geopolitical blocks around the world.* Why Venezuela as the wild card in South America. * Trump’s negotiating style, and why Canada is in a weak position.* Book Recommendation: 180 Degrees: Unlearn The Lies You've Been Taught To Believe by Feargus O’Connor Greenwood.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Veles from RogueNews on the podcast, and it was a fascinating conversation. I listened to the whole thing a second time when I was editing it last night, and I am definitely looking forward to another conversation with Veles in the future. We talked about the realignment of the global economic and political system, why gold is flowing into the US again (just like it was before WWII), and some of the important technological trends to watch, from micro nuclear reactors to more efficient chips for artificial intelligence. You can find Veles on RogueNews on Rumble and YouTube.Podcast Summary* Zelensky’s disaster in the White House on Friday, and how he is just a puppet for other people behind the scenes.* The competing factions of power around the world, the future of the EU, and why certain factions in Europe need the war in Ukraine.* He lays out how a massive amount of money is being ripped out of the US federal government budget right now, and the connection to the urgent selling of real estate in the DC area.* The importance of gold, and why a large amount of physical gold was moved out of Europe into the US before WWII. * He lays out the reasons that gold is flowing into the US again today, and why the US is in the driver’s seat with our economy and political system, as the world starts to realign the economic and political system towards a multipolar world. * Salted gold reserves in China, and why that set off alarms in other countries. * The gold that is still on ships at the bottom of the ocean, and the disputes between different countries over it. * What he sees for the US power grid, and why a decentralized grid is an advantage for the US. * Why artificial intelligence is overhyped, and how power demand at the chip level could be reduced by 90-95% at the chip level by replacing floating point multiplication with integer addition. * The potential benefits of micro nuclear reactors and the downstream effects that could have on the US grid, and how micro nuclear reactors could benefit Europe.* Physical versus digital currency, and why he thinks we will eventually see a fully digital dollar.* Book Recommendations: The Most Dangerous Book In The World: 9/11 As Mass Ritual by S.K. Bain & Lucifer’s Banker by Brad Birkenfeld.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I was able to have John Polomny back on the podcast for another great conversation. We looked at some of the commodities sectors that both of us find interesting, and some of the opportunities in the market today. We also talked about the current geopolitical landscape and American culture. You can find his Substack below, but he is also a very entertaining follow on Twitter.Podcast Summary* Energy Return On Energy Invested, and how human society has never gone backwards as far as energy density.* Uranium, and the bombed out sentiment across the sector. * The opportunities in the oil & gas sector, including offshore oil services and Canadian oil sands.* Why he likes Glencore for his exposure to the coal sector. * His thoughts on the precious metals miners, the agricultural sector, and shipping. * The geopolitical landscape, from Trump and the Monroe Doctrine, to the return of realpolitik. * Immigration, the changing culture of the US, and what it means to be an American.* Book Recommendation: Santa Monica Partners Letters to Partners 1982-2021: 40 Years of Pink Sheet Investing by Lawrence Goldstein and Joseph Raymond.* He also recommended the Horizon Kinetics quarterly updates, which are definitely a must read. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comAfter I recorded recently with Vince Lanci for a podcast on gold and the LBMA, we got to chatting about oil and I told him about Sable Offshore $SOC (I know that is probably shocking to some of you). He invited me to one of his Sunday conversations with some of his subscribers to discuss the situation, and where things stand today. If you guys need a fix on Sable or want to hear some of Vince’s questions, and my thoughts on Sable and oil in general, including some talk on the geopolitical side, feel free to watch. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Last week I had Matt Warder back on the podcast to give us an update on the coal sector. We talked about why it might be tough sledding in 2025 for coal stocks, the different companies in the US and Australia, and more. You can find Matt on Twitter and on Substack below. He is must follow for any investor interested in the coal sector.Podcast Summary* His broad outlook for thermal and metallurgical coal, the impact of LNG on thermal, and why he thinks 2025 is going to be the cycle trough for met coal.* The impact of potential tariffs on the coal sector.* His outlook for China, and the uncertainty on how a potential trade war could play out. * His view on some of the stocks in the sector, and the potential for further M&A.* We also looked briefly at some of the Australian stocks in the coal sector.* The bankruptcies of smaller players here in the US and what might happen to Corsa Coal after they filed for bankruptcy.* Where he’s looking for opportunities outside of the coal sector.* The potential for a coal powered data center in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming.* Book Recommendation: Buried Treasure by Otto Scott.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast to discuss what has been going on recently in the Gold market. We discussed what is going with the LBMA, COMEX, and the gold flowing into the United States. We also briefly covered his thoughts on silver, platinum, and oil. It was a fun conversation and should help listeners get a handle on what is going on with gold right now. You should all follow his Substack for his precious metals updates, but you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The LBMA (London Bullion Market Association), COMEX, and the EFP (the exchange of futures for physical), and why gold is moving to the US.* Why the LBMA is in the process of slowly dying. * How tariffs would impact precious metals, and why the likelihood of tariffs on metals is extremely low (but not zero).* The so-called conspiracy theories around the LBMA.* The potential structure of a sovereign wealth fund. * Why he’s bullish on silver longer term, and why he thinks gold and silver might be decoupling. * Why platinum won’t be far behind if silver starts to run.* What he is watching with oil, and how it interacts with Trump’s geopolitical policy and tariffs.* Book Recommendation: The Prize by Daniel YerginKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Mike Farris come back on the podcast to discuss a wide variety of topics, from geopolitics, Trump 2.0, to the health of America, and the pros and cons of podcasting and content creation. He let me rant a bit a bit on some of the things going on today, but it was a fun conversation. You can find him on Twitter, YouTube, and all of the main podcast apps. Podcast Summary* His skepticism on the recent news around USAID, DOGE, and Elon Musk.* The Cabinet confirmations and what their impact might look like.* The Middle East, Israel, Ukraine, and the likelihood that Trump is able to resolve things.* Why Turkey is the wildcard in the Middle East. * The pace that things are moving and how it is hard to stay up to date.* Potential shifts in the Overton Window and why it might accelerate.* Lawfare and why he is pessimistic on the way things are going.* I rant on the state of food and health in America, and how it has deteriorated over the last several decades.* Ozempic side effects.* The state of corporate America and DEI.* The pros and cons of podcasting and content creation.* Book Recommendation: Gold Warriors by Sterling Seagrave.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I was able to talk with Tommy Deepwater, who has been following offshore oil services for more than a decade, with a focus on deepwater. We talked about some of the recent news from the sector, the trend of consolidation and M&A, and where the offshore cycle sits today. His Twitter is a must follow for his weekly updates on the sector. It was a great follow up to my podcast series on oil, and if you’re interested in offshore oilfield services, specifically deepwater, you will enjoy it.Podcast Summary* Noble $NE retiring a couple drillships, and why parts of the stacked fleet will continue to be retired.* Why higher spec stacked drillships are more likely to be reactivated.* Why he thinks Transocean $RIG has the highest quality active fleet.* The Transocean & Seadrill $SDRL M&A rumors, and future consolidation of the sector.* How the offshore bull cycle has been delayed, the picture for 2025/2026, and where day rates have to go to see new builds. * His thoughts on jackups, Borr Drilling $BORR , and their asset quality.* The OSV market, Tidewater $TDW , and how OSVs will benefit from increased activity in the deepwater sector. * Why he finds FPSOs (Floating Production Storage Offloading units) interesting.* Namibia, Colombia, and Suriname as potential geographies for new long-term drillship demand. * Book Recommendation: Chip War by Chris Miller.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had the pleasure of chatting with Doomberg for part 3 of my podcast series on oil. We bounced around a bunch of different topics, from geopolitics and Trump, to his view on the Permian Basin and OPEC, to other sources of oil supply like the Vaca Muerta in Argentina. It was a great follow up to the first two parts of the series. Podcast Summary* The geopolitical big picture, from sanctions to Canadian energy tariffs, and why the US and Canada will probably cut a deal.* His overall view that energy markets well supplied today.* Why natural gas pipeline capacity is the bottleneck for Permian oil production in his view. * His thoughts on the Vaca Muerta in Argentina, and other potential sources of oil supply growth in coming years. * Why peak cheap oil is a myth, and why the gold to oil ratio will probably continue to go higher. * Why oil prices going up in dollar terms is more of a reflection of dollar devaluation than oil getting scarcer or more expensive. * His thoughts on the long term future of OPEC, US refining capacity, and LNG.* Europe and Germany’s energy policy when it comes to hydrocarbons versus renewables. * What he would look for to potentially get more bullish on oil prices, from a flush and collapse of OPEC, to geopolitical dislocations (which admittedly would be short-term).* Which energy subsectors he would focus on for opportunities. * The impact of AI on energy demand growth.* His brief thoughts on abiotic oil versus fossil fuels.* Book Recommendation: The Deep Hot Biosphere by Thomas GoldKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Wilson from HFI Research joined me yesterday for part 2 of my series on oil, and we had a great conversation on a variety of topics. We talked about his outlook for oil and gas in 2025, what he sees for US production and OPEC spare capacity in 2025, and some of the equities that he finds attractive today. You can also find him on Twitter where he posts some of his work on oil and gas.Podcast Summary* His general outlook for oil and natural gas in 2025.* OPEC spare capacity in 2025.* Why LNG is the main demand driver long term for increased natural gas demand, and why projections for power burn demand might be off.* His issues with EIA numbers, and how they adjust numbers to try to get an accurate read on US oil production.* Their projections for US production in 2025, and the gap between their numbers and consensus.* How the Permian Basin is in the process of peaking, and why he thinks there will be a structural supply deficit for oil by the end of the decade.* His thoughts on Trump as a wild card, but why his second term will look different for energy than his first term. * Why a SPR refill could be a big tailwind IF it happens.* His view on sanctions or tariffs having an impact on oil markets. * His thoughts on some specific Canadian equities, some of the Permian producers, as well as a special situation they’re watching.* What he looks for in companies when it comes to buybacks and capital returns.* Book Recommendations: The Courage To Be Disliked by Ichiro Kishimi and Fumitake Koga & More Money Than God by Sebastian Mallaby.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Today I’m excited to publish the first part of a podcast series on oil that I will be doing over the next couple weeks. Rob Connors, the author of The Crude Chronicles, joined me for part 1 to give us a historical look at where we are in the cycle today. He also provided a detailed slide deck that we went through, which I included below. If you want to follow him on Twitter, he also shares some of his interesting charts there.Podcast Summary* Why he thinks energy could be one of the best (if not the best) performing sector of the S&P 500 over the next decade, and could return 9-10% AFTER inflation.* The two main drivers for commodities cycles: liquidity or excessive money creation, and declining well productivity.* The six stages of the oil cycle, and why we are in stage 3 now.* How the incentive structures have changed for E&P management and what that means moving forward. * His thoughts on the political changes and why “Drill, baby, drill” won’t have a huge impact.* Why he thinks the floor for oil is somewhere in the low-60s.* Oil bull markets typically have three waves, and why offshore oilfield services typically perform best in the third wave.* His thoughts on the narrative around OPEC spare capacity, and why he is more focused on non-OPEC supply.* Book Recommendations: Can’t Deny It by Doug Terreson, The Prize by Daniel Yergin, and The Quest For Value by Bennett Stewart.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I had PauloMacro and Rudy Havenstein on the podcast to discuss financial markets, financial nihilism, and the generational divide. The financial nihilism and generational divide are two big picture topics that I have started to spend more time thinking about in recent weeks. Paulo’s recent post on financial nihilism is why I wanted to record this episode in the first place. If you can make it through Paulo’s opening monologue without wanting to listen to the rest of the podcast, I will be shocked. Podcast Summary* A “turducken of market disasters” coming together, with shades of the 1970s inflation and concentration reminiscent of the Nifty 50.* How income inequality has only gotten worse, and real wages have stagnated for decades.* The Boomer generation’s responsibility in the increasing wealth inequality.* We are watching a pessimistic bubble for the first time in history (this is where the nihilism comes from, and is something Dave Collum has talked about as well).* What if this isn’t the end of max stupid, what if this is just the beginning? We recorded on Friday, before the launch of Trump coin, so Paulo’s question looks prescient.* The long term impact of entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.* How the passive market has created the kindling for some potential fireworks. No one is sure if 2025 is the year, but I think we were all on the same page that it is a matter of when, not if for passive investing.* Why Paulo and Rudy are both watching the bond market, and why the move higher in yields might not be over.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Dave Collum back on the podcast to discuss his 2024 Year In Review. It’s a must read every year, and goes deep into several different rabbit holes. It’s always entertaining, just like his Twitter. We had a wide ranging conversation on everything going on in the world today, from the LA fires, Trump and geopolitics, to health and financial markets.Podcast Summary* The LA fires and what the aftermath might look like.* The state of the insurance industry and private equity.* America’s lack of a frontier, a culture of honor, and the return of frontier justice. * His thoughts on the end of NATO, the EU, and what’s going on in the world.* The connection between vaccines and autism, and ivermectin and fenbendazole for as a cancer treatment.* Obesity, Ozempic, poison in the food, and shifts in what is viewed as healthy.* The false reads from the economic dashboard, from inflation, to jobs, to GDP.* Bitcoin as the shiny object, quantum computing, and his questions on it being a sustainable asset class.* The path of creative destruction in technology.* His views on energy, abiotic oil, and other commodities like platinum and gold.* The long drawn out correction that he thinks is coming, comparing the concentration in the Mag 7 to the Nifty 50. * Book Recommendation: The Indispensable Right by Johnathan TurleyKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I had Yuri Bezmenov on the podcast to talk about a variety of topics that have had an impact on the US, from the changes in academia, to DEI, and other divides we see here in the US. It was a fun and wide ranging conversation on some of the things that have become more obvious to me in recent years. You can find his Substack below, and you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The change in the prestige of a college education, and the change in attitude towards higher education from younger generations.* The best way to push back against the DEI agenda.* The divide between different generations, and the different stereotypes of each generation.* The death of mainstream media.* The solution to the male/female divide in the West.* The Make America Healthy Again movement, and the potential for RFK to make changes to the food and medical system.* Immigration, and the potential for positive changes on that front.* Book Recommendation: The Man Who Stayed Behind by Sidney Rittenberg.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last Friday, I had my first return guest on the podcast, Tom Luongo, back to discuss what is going on in the world after Trump’s recent election. We touched on a wide variety of topics, from the mainstream (or undead) media, to geopolitics and the different competing factions around the world, along with oil and bitcoin. You should all go check out Tom’s newsletter/Patreon at Gold, Goats n’ Guns, and you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The waning relevance of the media, especially as the Boomer generation passes on and they lose their audience. * The importance of the election, Trump’s cabinet picks, and his questions on a couple of the closer Senate races. * The difference between “Joe” and “Biden”.* The different generations and their attitudes on the current system through the lens of the Fourth Turning.* Oil, OPEC, and why we aren’t at peak oil.* The importance of a Treasury and Fed that have a different focus than they did over the last couple decades.* Bitcoin increasing in price, leading to an increased supply of stablecoins (like Tether), which leads to increased demand for Treasuries.* Getting rid of government universal basic income by cutting some of the government jobs that are a drain on taxes and the economy. * Why he expects capital to keep coming into the United States.* What he’s focused on for the rest of 2024, and leading into the inauguration. * The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldridge by Philip K. Dick.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday morning I had Erik from Your Weekend Reading on the podcast for a great and wide ranging discussion. We talked about everything from bonds and changing market regimes to inflation and Project Zimbabwe, which ties in with his experience investing in Africa. You can also find him on Twitter here.Podcast Summary* We talked about a regime change in the market, and what it might look like for different asset classes over the next several years.* His thoughts on bonds, debt levels, positioning, and why the yield on the 10 year could go to 6%.* Why he thinks the Fed jumped the gun by cutting rates.* The psychology of inflation becoming embedded, and why wage inflation is here to stay.* His thoughts on gold, central bank buying, the miners, energy, and other commodities.* How the day to day adoption of Bitcoin over the last decade has been disappointing for bulls, despite his view that it is a good store of value. * Why he is bullish on natural gas, and why he went from bullish on oil to a more mixed view recently.* His thoughts on Trump potentially being able to calm things down in Ukraine and/or the Middle East.* The rapid developments and technology advancements in the Chinese manufacturing economy. * Why he finds China a very attractive pond to fish in with cheap valuations and bombed out sentiment.* He also makes a compelling case for the European banks.* Why Trump 2.0 and tariffs might not be able to make American manufacturing great again. * Book Recommendations: Antifragile & The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving last week, but I wanted to put out a short video this morning. I got a couple questions on Calumet $CLMT with the DOE loan and dilution, so I wanted to follow up after my recent podcast with Karst Research and Jake LaMotta. It won’t be a full breakdown, so you should watch that first if you’re interested. I also wanted to briefly cover the latest with Sable Offshore $SOC . The Fire Marshal updated their Pathways for Restarting CA-324 and CA-325 website, but it looks like they aren’t going to step in with the whole CCC circus. Whatever happens, I think we will get some clarity on what path Sable will take in the next couple weeks. I wrapped up by talking briefly about Peabody Energy’s $BTU and their acquisition, and why my attitude towards that one is starting to change. I have been busy pulling double duty at the family business recently, but I do have some good podcast guests lined up for the next couple weeks, so keep an eye out for those. I also have a couple new ideas I have been digging into recently, and I’ll share those when I have done enough research.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Yesterday I had two guests on the podcast, Karst Research and Dylan (aka Jake LaMotta, aka Raging Bull Capital), to talk about Calumet $CLMT . You should all go check out their Substacks below. You can also find them on Twitter (here and here). It was an interesting conversation on a stock that has several catalysts lined up in the near future. We talked about the DOE loan that is expected to close before year end, the different segments of the business, and more.Podcast Summary* We talked about the 30,000 foot view of Calumet, which has transitioned from a busted MLP with no dividend to a C-corp earlier this year.* The terms of the DOE loan, which was announced in October, and expected to close by year end. * Why Karst views the DOE loan as a balance sheet event, and the deleveraging and reduction in interest expense that will happen as a result of the loan.* How Dylan thinks the DOE loan derisks the business for the next couple years.* What SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) expansion might look like for Calumet.* I play devil’s advocate questioning the long-term viability of SAF.* Their thoughts on what a potential monetization event might look like (and its timing), whether it’s an IPO of the Montana Renewables segment, or a sale of one of the other segments.* If there are any risks to Calumet from the incoming Trump administration.* Book Recommendation from Dylan: How The World Really Works by Vaclav Smil.* Book Recommendation from Karst: Throne of Grace by Bob Drury & Tom Clavin.DisclaimerAll three of us currently have an investment in Calumet. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Will Tanner from The American Tribune on the podcast to discuss Rhodesia, Ronald Reagan, and the future of America and Britain. You can also find Will and his viral threads on Rhodesia on Twitter. It was an interesting and wide ranging conversation on Rhodesia, its parallels to the current state of the US, and other topics that will certainly give listeners food for thought.Podcast Summary* We talked about the history of Rhodesia and how it went from the breadbasket of Africa to killing elephants for food after a drought.* How sanctions from the US, UK, and the UN led to the end of Rhodesia. * He talked about their successful propertied voting system (without apartheid like South Africa) that incentivizes the right things from the populace, and only gives a say to those with a stake in the system. * His view on the Cold War, and why it wasn’t really about a fight between freedom and democracy against communism.* His thoughts on egalitarianism, disparate impact, and other questionable policies of the West.* We also talked about Ronald Reagan, and how his policies led to some of the problems we have today with illegal immigration, no fault divorce, and growth of the national debt (and also immunity for vaccine manufacturers).* The issues with birthright citizenship.* Private equity strip mining the middle class, and their impact on the healthcare industry. * His thoughts on the future of the US, and what could be done to fix things here.* Mass immigration, and how policies could be shifted to encourage self-deportation.* His thoughts on the state of Britain, and the punitive inheritance taxes. * Book Recommendation: 1913 by Charles Emmerson.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had Sal Mercogliano on the podcast to talk about all things shipping. His YouTube channel, What’s Going On With Shipping, is a great resource to stay up to date on all of the things that have an impact on the sector. You can also find him on Twitter. We talked about the incoming Trump administration and some of the different shipping sectors.Podcast Summary* The potential impact of tariffs from the Trump Administration, particularly the impact on China. We also talked about how tariffs might implemented, and why tariffs scaling in is better than implementing a large tariff all at once.* Why he’s watching the Cabinet selections to see how it might have an impact on the business environment.* He discussed why he favors the tanker sector, the potential impact of sanctions against Iran, and how a resolution in Ukraine could change things for tankers.* Containers, $ZIM , and what might happen if/when the conflict in the Red Sea with the Houthis stops. * Dry Bulk, and how he views it as a precursor for what’s going on in the economy. We also talked about bauxite growth, and the potential impact of other dry bulk commodities. * The current state of the shipyards and order books, including longer build times, the impact of changing emissions standards, and scrapping potential.* LNG, the US permitting export capacity with a new administration, and the issue of LNG competing with pipeline gas.* China’s outsized impact on the shipbuilding sector. The country builds over half of the world’s ships, with the China State Shipbuilding Corporation accounting for ~20%.* Book Recommendations: Maritime Economics by Martin Stopford & The Box by Marc Levinson. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

My guest on today’s podcast is E.M. Burlingame, a former Green Beret with wide variety of career experiences in different parts of the financial world. I first heard him on The Coffee And A Mike Podcast, but we had a great discussion on the results of the Presidential Election and everything else that is going on in the world right now. You can also find him on Twitter, or his books on Amazon.Podcast Summary* The results of the Presidential Election, and what might happen as Trump transitions into office.* How Europe is dying, and his thoughts on the European Union.* The different factions of power (the mob state, the Praetorian system) and the princes/aristocrats fighting behind the scenes. * Why some of the European factions are pushing for escalation in Ukraine and the Middle East.* The contrast of the land powers in Eurasia (China, Russia, and Iran), and the sea powers (US and the West).* Student loan forgiveness, and the fall of the academic system in the US.* The importance of quality collateral in the current financial system.* Real estate speculation and immigration’s impact on the real estate market.* Market dynamics around passive investing and high frequency trading.* The multiple financial rug pulls of the different generations here in the US.* What he’s watching for the Trump presidency and beyond.* The aristocracy turning into a noble class, and why we are the early days of a new feudal system.* Book Recommendation (His Book): The Eternal War by EM Burlingame.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Peter R. Quiñones on the podcast to discuss the upcoming Presidential Election, geopolitical events in the Middle East and Ukraine, and our occupied government. You should all go check out Pete’s podcast and his Twitter. He’s a very entertaining follow, and his frequent podcasts are one of the reasons I stayed sane during the COVID lockdowns a couple years ago.Podcast Summary* The predicament that the Regime has with letting Trump become President.* Why he thinks Trump will win, and why the election won’t be called on election night.* Which swing states might have issues with the vote.* The potential for lawfare or another assassination attempt before inauguration day.* Jeff Bezos and some of the recent developments at the Washington Post* His thoughts on Elon Musk’s influence, and how the Senate and House results might impact things.* The impact of potential deportations on things like real estate, wages, and cost of living.* Israeli influence on US politics, and the occupied state of the US federal government.* His thoughts on what is going on in the Middle East and Ukraine.* Why the US won’t become a monarchy until the managerial state has been abolished.* Federalism and the importance of local government, specifically the sheriff.* His thoughts on eliminating the income tax for tariffs, and why you would need to deregulate in a big way to make tariffs work.* Book Recommendation: Race War In High School by Harold Saltzman (go listen to Pete’s full book reading on this one), and Imperium by Francis Parker Yockey (also recommended by Stormy Waters).Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Once you realize it’s all nonsense then it all makes sense.A couple days ago, I had fellow Substack author Le Shrub on the podcast. He writes over at Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator, and if you don’t already follow him, you should. He’s clearly the most talented trader in the plant kingdom, but we had a great conversation on different commodities, the market, and several stocks of interest. He’s also a very entertaining follow on Twitter.Podcast Summary* His preferred way to get exposure to oil, and what it takes for geopolitical risk to get priced into oil markets.* The Trump trades, and how a Trump win might be worse for deficits, bonds, and the dollar. * Why platinum is his preferred precious metal inflation hedge, Costco’s $COST (yes, that Costco) potential impact on a platinum bull market, and how platinum is trading at the widest discount to gold in history.* His thoughts on several coal stocks, including Peabody Energy $BTU and Warrior Met Coal $HCC , and the outlook for metallurgical vs. thermal coal.* Why tin is one of his favorite under the radar opportunities in the commodities space.* His thoughts on broader markets, what he’s looking for to get bearish, and why investors should keep an eye on China.* Book Recommendation: The Gambler by Fyodor Dostoevsky. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Larry Johnson on the podcast to talk about all of the things going on around the world. He’s former CIA and a very sharp geopolitical analyst. We talked about what is going on in the Middle East with Israel and Iran, Ukraine, and how the US Presidential election might play out. You can find him at SONAR21, where he breaks down current events here in the US and abroad. Podcast Summary* We talk about Israel and the multiple fronts that have been in the news as of late. * The impact of propaganda in the US on older generations and their view of Israel, with the movie Exodus as one example.* How younger generations have a very different view of Israel in light of recent events.* How Israel started the conflict with Iran (attacking their consulate), and how Iran might retaliate if Israel targets oil, nuclear, or military targets. * His thoughts on whether or not Iran has nukes, and the recent potential underground nuclear test in Iran.* Will the US get more involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran?* The various problems facing Ukraine in their fight against Russia.* Drone warfare, and developments of new capabilities being developed and used in the Ukrainian theater.* Why he thinks Trump will win in the upcoming election. * The shifting media narrative machine and how SNL is a warning indicator for Kamala and her chances.* Immigration, gaslighting, and what might happen with immigration if Kamala is installed. * Book Recommendations: America’s Last War & Losing Military Supremacy by Andrei Martyanov.* Bonus Movie Recommendation: Exodus.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I had Mihail Stoyanov, the author of TheOldEconomy, on the podcast to talk about shipping, commodities, and his investment strategy. With his background in the shipping sector, he was able to give some valuable insights into the different subsectors worth keeping an eye on moving forward. We also talked about commodities, his options strategy, and other opportunities he finds attractive today.Podcast Summary* We talked about why he likes Cape Size vessels, and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM in particular.* His thoughts on the LNG sector, and what makes Dynagas $DLNG and their ICE class vessels attractive (their 6 vessel fleet includes 5 ICE class vessels).*A Quick Note: I looked this up after the recording, but Dynagas is a Master Limited Partnership, which requires a K-1 tax form here in the US. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.* Why he likes the shipbuilding sector and Seatrium in particular.* His bullish views on precious metals and the different ways he expresses that view for gold, silver, and PGMs.* Golar LNG $GLNG , their unique assets, and why he still likes the company.* His thoughts on the steel sector, Gerdau $GGB , and emerging markets like Brazil. * We also talked about his options strategy and what he looks for when taking a position.* Book Recommendation: Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke.DisclaimerWe talked about several companies that one (or both) of us might have investments in. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

We had a double dip on the podcast last week, so I’ll be posting this one instead of the Videos of the Week. I had Stormy Waters on the podcast, someone who is a must follow on Twitter. He is anonymous, but he has sold a couple businesses and is now focused on venture capital, private businesses, commodities, and public equities. It was one of those conversations where you forget you’re even recording. The YouTube hall monitors probably wouldn’t like some of the language, so fair warning on that, but this one will be audio only. This episode will have something for everyone, but I guarantee you will learn a thing or two. “Commodity prices have been artificially suppressed for the better part of seventy years. We’re talking about a much larger correction now aren’t we?We’re looking at a once in 150 year commodity supercycle.”Podcast Summary* The manipulation in oil markets and European sovereign debt markets, which are increasing in frequency and size.* Why he thinks oil is capped not because of the upcoming Presidential election, but because of the inflation that Europe would feel if oil goes higher.* The different types of dollars, and why he’s short the Euro and the Pound.* How the US lifted other countries out of poverty over the last several decades.* The situation in Israel and the rift between Netanyahu and Trump, and why Netanyahu will look to expand the war in Iran and/or Lebanon. This was recorded on 10/26, so that call looks pretty good in light of recent events in Lebanon. * Why he’s bullish on commodities across the board. We talked about some of his picks in uranium, natural gas, steel, and gold miners.* Why he thinks the France’s sovereign debt market will be the first domino in Europe to kick things off for a sovereign debt collapse.* The impact of the so-called Robber Barons (aka the great American men of that era), the pursuit of the good, true, and beautiful, and the noblesse oblige that is missing from today’s billionaire class.* The state of the bullion market, the LBMA, and JP Morgan’s influence on bullion.* How Eurodollars are used to suppress commodity prices bought from other countries, and then finished goods are sold to those same countries.* What led to the decline of the birth rate in developed nations (feminism, women’s liberation, and women in the work force), and how to fix it.* Book Recommendations: The House of Morgan by Ron Chernow; Imperium by Francis Parker Yockey; Men Among The Ruins by Julius Evola.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI wanted to ramble on some of my thoughts on three situations that I’m paying the most attention to right now, and why I have been adding to Sable Offshore $SOC and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM . I also talk about Calumet $CLMT and what I’m watching there between now and mid-October. I’ll be writing part 2 today, which will focus on the rest the portfolio, different commodities, and sectors I have focused on over the last year and change. I’ll also write a bit about my thoughts on recent trades, and it should be out tomorrow morning. Portfolio Weights

After talking with Vince Lanci VBL a while back, he said I should have Brynne Kelly on to talk about oil markets, and after the recent action in oil, I figured now was as good of a time as any. We talked about oil and natural gas, LNG, energy infrastructure, among other topics.Podcast Summary* Her view on owning energy equities, and why she prefers to get energy exposure directly through the commodities.* OPEC spare capacity as the overhang on oil markets for now.* Her thoughts on oil going negative in 2020, and how storage and infrastructure are a bottleneck for oil and natural gas.* How she uses the shape of the futures curve to gauge sentiment and positioning.* The regulatory risk for investing in energy infrastructure, and her thoughts on geopolitical risk.* Her time horizon with a typical trade.* LNG (liquefied natural gas), and why she’s skeptical that all of the planned projects will get built.* Why interstate pipelines won’t happen in this environment, and hydrocarbon infrastructure will not be brought online without a political change or significant crisis. * Book Recommendation: Short by Cortwright McMeel.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This week I had Judd Arnold of Lake Cornelia Research Management on the podcast. We discussed two companies I have been very interested in, Sable Offshore $SOC and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM . Judd walked through the numbers on both companies and explained what he thinks the next couple years look like for both companies. We also discussed some of the names in the offshore space, which has had a rough month along with oil.Podcast Summary* The regulatory situation in California and how it impacts Sable.* Why the recent settlement with Santa Barbara County took out a bunch of the risk. * Sable’s path to production and the potential for future capital returns.* The potential for carbon capture with Sable’s land holdings.* The situation for Navios and his recent memo on the company.* Why he’s bullish on Navios’ new builds, even though most shipping investors hate new builds. * We discuss the options chains and why Navios LEAPS might be interesting for risk tolerant investors.* We talked about China’s shipbuilding sector, The Jones Act, and why shipbuilding won’t come back to the US.* Why he prefers Tidewater $TDW to Seacor $SMHI . * His thoughts on Borr $BORR , Valaris $VAL and Transocean $RIG .* Book Recommendation: The Invisible Billionaire: Daniel Ludwig by Jerry Shields.DisclaimerI own shares of Sable, Navios Maritime Partners, Tidewater, Borr, and Seacor. I also own calls on Navios and Transocean, as well as Valaris warrants. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI wanted to get something out early this week after the bloodbath for oil and the energy equities. Price drives narrative, and we saw that last week for oil. I’m still stubbornly bullish, but that doesn’t mean oil won’t go lower short-term. I do think that the risk/reward from here is skewed, but that doesn’t make last week any less painful. Summary* I went through some of the things I found interesting on oil, from inventories, to DUCs (drilled, uncompleted wells), sentiment, and positioning. * I also talked about the potential for a dockworker strike, with a deadline of October 1st. * I talked briefly about the shifting of the Overton Window on things like immigration, and the discussion around WWII and Winston Churchill. * For paid subscribers, I explained my logic on recent portfolio moves, and why I’m very bullish on Sable Offshore $SOC and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM . Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

I was able to get Rudy Havenstein on the podcast last week for a great conversation. We talked about his investing strategy, real estate, inflation, and much more. If you don’t already follow him on Twitter, he’s one of the most entertaining accounts to follow. I don’t see volatility as risk. I see risk as permanent loss of capital.Podcast Summary* His investing strategy, which is focused on the long term and looking for stuff that is out of favor. He’s heavy in energy but also has some stuff he has been hanging onto for three decades.* His thoughts on real estate and chance that younger generations get a buying opportunity in the next couple years.* Competition from institutions in the single family housing market.* Private equity hollowing out different industries.* We spent some time bagging on Paul Krugman and how the Fed and ZIRP contributed to wealth inequality and the generation divide, as well as the some of the division we see in the country today.* American culture and the current state of affairs overseas.* Book Recommendation: Deterring Democracy by Noam ChomskyKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I had Matt Erickson of the Kingpilled podcast on the show to talk about the PayPal Mafia. We’re closing in on two months to election day, and I wanted to get him on to chat about some of the influential groups behind the scenes and what he sees coming for the rest of the year. Matt’s worth a follow, and you can find him on YouTube and Twitter.Podcast Summary* We go down the PayPal Mafia rabbit hole, talking about the influence of figures like Peter Thiel and Elon Musk.* We discussed the Boomer Truth Regime, generational differences, and the parallels between the Boomer and Millennial generations, and the parallels between the Gen X and Zoomer generations.* JD Vance being the first millennial politician on a presidential ticket, and the idea that he’s a life insurance policy for Trump.* Elon Musk and the influence Twitter has on shifting the Overton window.* America as an economic zone instead of a country, and the plan to bring manufacturing back to the country.* The Trump Assassination attempt and how different events end up getting memory holed.* Illegal immigration, mass deportations, and the importance of local governance.* The Birth of the American Empire and where the country might be headed over the next 50 to 100 years.* Book Recommendation: The Brothers: John Foster Dulles, Allen Dulles, and Their Secret World War by Stephen Kinzer.* We also talked briefly about the recent Tucker Carlson Interview of Geoff Shepard on Watergate and Richard Nixon.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comThis was one of my favorite podcasts I have recorded so far and I had to go listen to it a second time last night. I haven’t found many investors like PauloMacro that are as good at painting a picture of where we are today in financial markets and where we might be going. If you aren’t able to get enough from his Substack, you can also find him on Twitter.Inflationary recessions create monetary illusions.There are a lot of moving pieces in financial markets and geopolitics right now, and Paulo does a great job of setting the stage before diving into different commodities and opportunities in certain sectors. There were three takeaways that I think everyone should consider in their investing process:* Why Paulo looks for commodities or sectors “going to sleep” or being invisible for a while.* How positioning, sentiment, and narrative impact his investing process.* Why there is no clear way to express the trade in certain situations.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comA lot of people seemed to like this format, so I figured I would stick with it. I talked a bit about some of my thoughts on the inverted yield curve, interest rates, and recession. I also talked about oil and geopolitical risk, recent events in the coal sector, and current political events. For paid subscribers, I also talked about recent trades and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM . Summary* Some rough thoughts on a recession, rate cuts, and the inverted yield curve. * Oil - On top of the events I discussed in Sunday’s post, I talked about Libya shutting down production and exports and Russia hitting energy grid targets in Ukraine. I also took a look at the oil to gold ratio, and compared prices today to where we were 10 or 15 years ago, adjusted for inflation. * Coal - M&A activity, Peabody Energy $BTU activism, and Yancoal dividends.* Politics - I had a quick rant on the Unrealized Capital Gains Proposal, the state of Europe (particularly Britain and France), free speech, and RFK endorsing Trump.* I also did a quick portfolio update on Navios Maritime Partners, and recent trading activity for paid subscribers below. Portfolio Weights

Last week I had Vince Lanci on the podcast. He’s a veteran trader and the author of the Gold Fix Substack. You can also find him on Twitter. We talked about the unnatural price action in oil, the precious metals and some opportunities there, as well as some of the interesting dynamics going on between the Fed and the Treasury. You can also watch the video on YouTube below.Podcast Summary* Vince’s expected path for oil over the next three to five years.* His thoughts on how the election could impact that path.* The paper market versus the physical market for oil.* Hedge fund activity in oil shrinking while CTAs (trend followers) having a bigger impact.* The WTI contract becoming an orphan contract.* The Permian Basin and offshore vs. onshore production.* Precious metals and some of the opportunities in the platinum miners.* The Fed and the Treasury (aka Powell & Yellen) working against each other.* Book Recommendations: The Wager by David Grann & The Origins Of Totalitarianism by Hannah ArendtKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe