Kontrarian Korner

On Friday afternoon I had Rudy Havenstein and Robert from Infranomics on the podcast. We talked about recent events in the Middle East and the disruptions that are coming, the political situation and midterms, and why the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. I thought the most interesting part of the conversation was the back and forth on the political system. I wasn’t able to convince Rudy that the US should have a monarchy, but we all agreed that the system is very broken today. You can find Rudy’s Substack below, and he’s a must follow on Twitter. You can find Robert’s work on Twitter as well as his YouTube channel. Podcast Summary* How the recent events will feed into supply chains, inflation, and the complacency in financial markets. * The political interference with financial markets, and the pattern of jawboning the markets.* Why the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and why all roads lead to the big print.* Why they aren’t surprised by the effectiveness of the Iranian resistance and why Rudy thinks this could be a rerun of the Iraq war. * The problem with the mainstream media environment and the propaganda environment on social media. * How the midterm elections might turn out after the recent adventure in Iran and that abandonment of most of Trump’s campaign agenda. * Anarchotyranny, frontier justice, and fix it politics.* The push to reindustrialize the US and undoing some of the side effects of hyperfinancialization. * The potential for a completely different political system, and why the system can’t be reformed through the system.* The pros and cons of monarchy versus the current system.* Book Recommendation: Sinister Forces by Peter Levenda.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had John Polomny back on the podcast to talk about where he sees opportunities in financial markets and how recent events in the Middle East play a part in where those opportunities are. We also talked about some of the changes the US needs to make, why they will be difficult if not impossible, and several other topics. You can find John’s Substack below, but you can also find him on Twitter, and his weekly market updates on YouTube are a must watch. Podcast Summary* The supposed ceasefire in the Middle East, and the unavoidable supply chain disruptions that are already baked into the cake with recent events in the Strait of Hormuz. * Why he has unwound some of his energy exposure over the last couple days, and why agricultural commodities are an opportunity.* Adding to some of his positions in precious metals, why it’s a buying opportunity, and the long term secular drivers for gold in particular.* The series of events that he would have to see to be convinced that the US has control over the Strait of Hormuz. * Why the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and the only two choices are the big print (yield curve control) and letting rates rise. * The problems with US industrial policy and why it will take longer than most people think to course correct.* Why the US won’t exist in its current form in 10-15 years and the soft secession that is already happening. * Opportunities in emerging markets, base metals, and other places to look for potential investment.* Book Recommendation: How To Be Rich by J. Paul Getty.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Dexter White on the podcast as the perfect follow up to Tom Luongo on Monday. This was before the ceasefire, so we will see how that plays out and how markets react. We talked about the Strait of Hormuz and other international choke points, some of the nuances of AI and the media environment, and the national security importance of the great power competition with China. For anyone interested in a look at some of the most important topics facing the US right now, this one is worth a listen. You can find Dexter on Twitter and at Gold Goats n’ Guns. Podcast Summary* The situation with the Strait of Hormuz, what it means for the US, and the various supply chains that are impacted by it. * The nuances that are involved with the situation in Iran, and the lack of second and third order thinking from different media personalities.* The legal problems facing Netanyahu, and why Israel has influence, but they aren’t the only driving force behind the recent operations in Iran. * Why the US approach to China’s access to energy is a matter of national security. * The different islands in play in the Strait of Hormuz, from Qeshm and other islands in the narrowest part of the channel, and why he wouldn’t be surprised to see US Marines taking Qeshm, Hormuz, Larac, and the other small islands. * The importance of Kharg Island farther north, and why the US has to cut off the flow to reorder the political situation in Iran. * Why the US is targeting different international choke points, and how other countries have benefited from our role as guarantor of global shipping lanes. * The AI spending and the brute force approach of the LLM models that make it more power and data hungry than they need to be. * Why we won’t get AGI until you start working with neural tissue chip arrays.* The potential for data centers to be used for a digital control grid. * Why the waves of layoffs are not driven as much by AI and it’s more driven by the middle management bloat that has built up in the system over the last several decades. * The problems with the hyperfinancialized economy and globalization, how this was tied into the push towards egalitarianism, and the return to a reality based economy.* How the media environment shapes and pushes different narratives.* Where things lead with China, and why the US needs to address supply chain deficiencies rapidly because we are behind on that front.* Canada, why each province is a colonial exploitation zone, and the future of Alberta and Quebec. * Book Recommendation: On War by Carl von Clausewitz.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Tom Luongo back on the podcast to talk about all of the chaos going on in the world. Instead of getting tied up in day to day events, I wanted to pull on the threads of the big picture in our conversation. He thinks that we are near the end of a cycle that has been building for centuries, a fourth turning of a fourth turning if you will. Right now, we are seeing the return of power politics, the rewiring of the flow of money around the world, and the end of the rules based order. For anyone that needs some food for thought on these big picture topics, this one’s for you. You can find Tom on Twitter and his podcast at Gold, Goats n’ Guns. Podcast Summary* The 30,000 foot view of the situation in the Middle East, and why it will rewire the flow of money around the world. * The return of power politics and the end of the “rules based order”. * Why there are no coincidences in geopolitics, and the win conditions for the US in the Middle East. * The power the City of London has over global trade with controls of the levers of insurance, forex, and the Brent oil contract. * The consequences of what has happened so far in the Middle East and what comes next. * Why we will see the old petrodollar system change into a different version after the Iran conflict comes to a resolution. * The future of NATO, Europe, their economy, and why the European powers are chomping at the bit to go to war with Ukraine.* Why he thinks the consensus on Republicans getting blown out in the midterm will be wrong.* A key date to watch: April 28, when the King of England comes to the US to address Congress. * Book Recommendation: Foundation by Isaac Asimov.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe