Eurodollar University

American economist and New York Times columnist, Paul Krugman entered the economics profession to follow in the footsteps of Hari Seldon, a psychohistorian living on Trantor, approximately 10,000 years into the future. Seldon, psychohistory and Trantor are all from Isaac Assimov's Foundation series published between 1951 to '53. Seldon used, "the mathematics of human behaviour to save civilisation," as Krugman put it. Admittedly, "economics is a pretty poor substitute", muses Krugman, "[b]ut I tried," he says. Many would say he's done so very successfully having been awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to New Trade Theory and New Economic Geography.Is he the best psychohistorian alive? Your podcaster does not think so - they hand out those Nobels like candy. No, the best is Hungarian-American George Friedman, the geopolitical strategist. As proof this podcaster offers his 2009 book titled: "The Next 100 Years". Sure, Seldon forecasted the next 1,000 for the galaxy, but still, who on Earth is offering an outlook for the next century?In Friedman's book, Japan plays a very prominent role, second only to the United States. In macroeconomics and monetary policy Japan plays a central role too. It is the scout. Recon as the Americans call it; recee to the Commonwealth. The Bank of Japan is about seven years ahead of the main central banking force. And it's waving back at everyone to, 'Stay back! Don't come this way!' Is the warning lost in translation? Is it ignored? Spanish essayist George Santayana famously noted, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." But your podcaster prefers Friedman's quip that, "Studying history has little practical utility in averting past outcomes. We are doomed to repeat history whether we know it or not."----------WHY----------PART 01: Central banks regulate money supply - the Federal Reserve does not. The Fed does not control US dollars. Consider what came of Fed research Marvin Goodfriend's writings in the 1980s and 90s the eurodollar system and its enormous, ocean of offshore dollars? Nothing.PART 02: Real central banks manage money supply. Fake central banks manage inflation expectations. Central bankers cannot define, identify, quantify or convey money supply. Thus, they are reduced to observing a monetary output: inflation expectations.PART 03: The Bank of Japan has implemented radical, unorthodox policies for over two decades. The bank is seven years out in front of everyone. As scout, it has repeatedly warned the main central banking force (i.e. Britain, Europe and North America) not to follow in its path. But it's been ignored.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Bond Yields Are Really Quite Easy to Understand: https://bit.ly/2T3rQNTMarvin Goodfriend's 1981 "Eurodollars" article : https://bit.ly/2HgoRyLJ. Alfred Broaddus Jr.'s 1993 'Good Luck' article: https://bit.ly/2SYebHMRandal K. Quarles' 2020 'All Clear' speech: https://bit.ly/319RuVFInflation (Expectations) Is Anything But Confusing: https://bit.ly/3j6CYE0Decoding Gauges of Inflation Expectations Is Fed’s Next Big Task: https://bloom.bg/2T3qmDmYou Need To Understand What’s Really Behind This New ‘V’, And Once Again Japan Is More Than Helpful: https://bit.ly/358weAzRaising the Inflation Target: Lessons from Japan: https://bit.ly/31f85YiWhy Did the BOJ Not Achieve the 2 Percent Inflation Target with a Time Horizon of About Two Years?: https://bit.ly/359eS6T----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, falling out of balance, splitting his differential and tipping the f— over. Artwork by David Parkins, the Edmund Blackadder of the lampoon trenches. Podcast intro/outro is "Tiger's Nest" by Ooyy and Smartface at Epidemic Sound.

As your podcaster put the finishing touches on Episode 30 word came down from up-on-high: 'We need to do errata!'Yes! Finally! This podcaster's long-time goal would be a reality: to make economics erotic again. To tell the world that economists can stimulate. To inform that offshore bankers do it in the shadows. To broadcast that technical analysis has the best curves with those plunging chart necklines. The undulating data and heaving economic activity. Going long Treasuries. Wanting yield. Oh yeah, pile that yield on... yeah, high and deep... yeah, yeah...Alas, when the new intro copy was handed in for proofreading this podcaster's confusion was laid... bare. Errata? It's all about copy-editing. And mistakes. The ancient Latin word is plural for erratum, "a correction of a published text." And indeed, in part three of this episode, the article under discussion was originally printed as, "Inflation Targeting: You Can Me Al". Wha? It should have been "Inflation Targeting: You Can Call Me Al".And that's not all. Closely related to errata is corrigenda, a plural Latin word, "for a thing to be corrected, typically an error in a printed book." Whereas an erratum is, as a general rule, issued for a production error, a corrigendum is a mistake by the author. And, in part three, Jeff Snider and I introduce Al Broaddus, the former Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president. And when we segue to a quote about inflation targeting by Fed Governor Edward M. Gramlich, instead of attributing it to Gramlich, we continue to refer to Broaddus! We hope you forgive the erratum and the corrigendum and how we piled them high and deep in this episode... ooh, yeah.----------WHY----------PART 01: $1,200 direct cash payments is not stimulus, it is "relief aid"; these are "alms" given to the poor, needy and those harmed by both the virus and the government-mandated shutdowns of the economy. We review the state of the American labor market, European furlough programs, and conclude very difficult days are still ahead.PART 02: The SECOND round of stimulus checks is like the second round of quantitative easing. Instead of celebrating it as signaling something positive it should serve as a warning: if the first version was so good why do we need another round? Maybe the people in charge don't know what they're doing and are out of ideas? PART 03: The Federal Reserve has been fighting the last war: 1970s inflation. ----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------What’s Job (cuts) Got To Do With It (everything): https://bit.ly/2SEKCuzWho’s Negative? The Marginal American Worker: https://bit.ly/2GGYuSSCOT Blue: OMG the 30s!!!!: https://bit.ly/2GKN0h0Inflation Targeting: You Can [Call] Me Al: https://bit.ly/2GKKqYpSpeech by Governor Edward M. Gramlich: https://bit.ly/3jT34M8----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, prodigious producer of errata and corrigenda. Artwork by David Parkins, the Dorothea Lange of the Silent Depression. Podcast intro/outro is "A Most Violent Man" by Lofive at Epidemic Sound.

Advanced-economy money centers make the world go round. In the early 1800s London and Paris funded globalization cycles. Berlin and Vienna joined the exclusive club as the century waned; New York at the start of the next. Today, East Asia's cities are members, including Singapore and Hong Kong. But the 800-pound sumo wrestler of the Pacific basin is, and has been, Tokyo. Some speculate it was there at the beginning of the eurodollar, putting overseas dollars, held by WW2 service members, to work. The subsequent, multi-decade growth miracle established Tokyo's financial prowess. The 1980s brought disturbance early - the LDC Crisis - and euphoria later - the baburu keiki. When the bubble burst Japan's dollar borrowings from US banks dropped by more than three-quarters by the end of the 1990s.Then, in 1999, the Bank of Japan implemented the first modern zero interest rate policy. In 2001, the first quantitative easing. From it's 1999 low Japan's dollar borrowings from US banks doubled by 2004. Then doubled again by 2009. Then doubled again by 2011. In part three of this, the 29th episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider explains Tokyo's role in the rise of a synthetic dollar empire and how disturbances within it, in early-2014 and late-2017, set off the third and fourth eurodollar crises. But first, thoughts about the rising appeal of socialism and words about the modern-day monetary tension between the ideas of 18th-century Scottish philosopher David Hume and 19th-century American financier Jay Cooke.----------WHY----------PART 01: Dick Costollo said, "Me-first capitalists who think you can separate society from business are going to be the first people lined up against the wall and shot in the revolution. I'll happily provide video commentary." Jeff Snider explains the historical context of Marxist agitation against Capitalism.PART 02: Over the ages legendary philosophers have offered their thoughts on the nature money. This episode focuses on two - David Hume and Jay Locke - whose ideas, though diametrically opposed, are both true. Also, Antonio Gramsci, Milton Friedman, Nicholas Copernicus and Ice Cube weigh in.PART 03: The Wall Street Journal recently wrote, "The Japanese government bond market is rarely considered interesting. But beneath the placid surface... a thriving world of dollar funding, which offers hints about developments in China’s banking system too." Jeff Snider tells us what it means.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------There Have Long Been Too Many 'Have Nots' In the U.S.: https://bit.ly/3l4GX5FThe context behind Dick Costollo's Tweet: https://on.ft.com/3lddCpLWho was Antonio Gramsci: https://bit.ly/36vWcArBefore Hume, Before Carnegie: https://bit.ly/3iqcg99Ice Cube Tweet: https://bit.ly/2Gd9JCtSmall But Real Progress Carrying The Yen Carry Trade Into the Light: https://bit.ly/3nc0J0JHow the World’s Dullest Market Quietly Created a Synthetic Dollar Empire: https://on.wsj.com/3l9FV8p----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, owner of many red (hardcover) books. Artwork by stylograph sammurai, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "STHLM-Tokyo" by Ooyy and Smartface at Epidemic Sound.

In 1969 Johnny Carson was hosting The Tonight Show and, in one particular episode, Bob Hope headlined. After Carson finished interviewing Hope he called out his next guest, George Gobel. To everyone's surprise the person that walked out on stage was most certainly not Gobel. It was none other than the Italian Crooner himself, Dean Martin. Now, as was Martin's style in those days, he was already two cognacs into the next day's hangover, which made for a rocking good show. Eventually Gobel did make it out on to the set. When he finally did, he complained to Carson, 'Having to come on last! Having to share the stage with legends!'He turned to the cameras and asked, "Do you ever get the feeling... do you ever get the feeling that the whole world was a tuxedo, and you were a pair of brown shoes?" In this, the 28th episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider and Brent Johnson talk fin de siècle political-economy while Emil Kalinowski holds up a pair of egregious brown brogues.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------OK, Bank Reserves; Let’s Do This One More Time: https://bit.ly/3hXhJ7mTaking You, The Fed’s Bank Reserves, And Banks’ Checkable Deposits For A Quick Stroll In The Monetary Zoo: https://bit.ly/3i4du9PA Good Time For Some Q & A: Bank Reserves, Treasury Auctions, MMT, and the Monetary Resolve: https://bit.ly/3mLPrjEAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments as Bob Hope. Brent Johnson, Chief Executive Officer of Santiago Capital as Dean Martin. And Emil Kalinowski, as George Gobel. Artwork by the Johnny Carson of caricature, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "We Just Gotta (Get Together)" by Wanda Shakes at Epidemic Sound.

US President Harry Truman prosecuted the war to its conclusion, finishing his predecessor's near-impossible task. Then, with bitter irony, History reversed his role as "anchor" for the Second World War into "lead" for the third. As the trilogy approached its near-miraculous end decades later, one could hear an echo of a Truman slogan - “Education is our first line of defense” - in the 1980s cartoon GI*Joe that averred, “Knowing is half the battle.” Both aphorisms are twigs coming off the "Knowledge is Power" branch. And the trunk itself? A tree of the knowledge of good and evil with roots stretching to the genesis.More recently our physicists have been informing us of hard limits to our knowledge - uncertainty principles, incompleteness theorems - butressing Socrates' statement that, "The only true wisdom consists in knowing that you know nothing." Still, bounded knowledge is a poor excuse for apathy, and in 1951 Truman signed into existence an agency whose purpose was to prepare American citizens for nuclear war. "Knowledge is not only key to power. It is the citadel of human freedom," he said.In this 27th episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider reveals that Truman's agency's most iconic result was that of a cartoon turtle named Bert. It may sound startlingly silly to the 21st-century ear, but educating citizens to turtle up, to duck and cover at the first instance of a flash made sense at that particular time. At least, up to the point when weapons, and thus circumstances, evolved. Similarly, the Federal Reserve's monetary policies made sense, up to the point when money, and thus circumstances evolved, which, coincidentally enough, began in Truman's time.----------WHY----------PART ONE: What can 1950s preparations for nuclear war tell us about monetary policy in 2020? Well, that some preparations - such as "Duck and Cover" - made sense, up to the point when circumstances evolved. Similarly, the Fed's bank reserves made sense, up to a point.... long since passed.PART TWO: Beijing has reported dead quiet in its foreign exchange reserves. In the middle of THE most abrupt and widespread economic halt? It literally does not add up - unless bold assumptions are made. We look to what happened in Brasilia in 2013-16 and Beijing 2014-16 for answers.PART THREE: What do the latest figures tell us about the world's most important consumer? Jeff Snider reviews retail sales, industrial production and asks what is it that is missing from our post 2007-08 economy that precludes robust recovery.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------If Jerome Powell Has a Middle Name, It Might Well Be Bert: https://bit.ly/3c9UA0dDuck And Cover (1951) Bert The Turtle: https://youtu.be/IKqXu-5jw60The Contingent Hole In China’s Brazil Dollar Strategy: https://bit.ly/35PJGveThe Mysterious $100 Billion Gap In China's Payments Data: https://bit.ly/2FIAVZoAnother Key Economic Stumble In August Pointing Back At July: https://bit.ly/3cgPVJLNo Hole Puzzle, From Autos An August Stumble: https://bit.ly/3mCWknl----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, who turtle waxes. Artwork lined with graphite by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Steps" by Cushy at Epidemic Sound.

How much is several? What is a few? If you were to put a numerical value on "probably" would it be more, or less, than "likely"? To your podcaster's great consternation the linguistic gatekeepers of Middle English appear to have been rather disinterested about it all. And so, people are constantly late... or early! 'I thought we were to meet in a few hours?' 'No! It was several.' 'Oh, right.' Women seem to revel in these nuances, arriving for a date with this podcaster when it pleases them and then claiming etymological immunity.Which brings us to the word transitory. Admittedly there is SOME lexicographic nuance: momentary, transient, impermanent, temporal. However, the Federal Reserve - like the proverbial camel - stuck its thesaurus-nose into that nuance and CHARGED into the economic-tent of the past decade. Why did the 2009-10 Green Shoots recovery fail? Transitory European Sovereign Debt Crisis, gummed Bernanke. Why did the economy swoon in the first quarter of 2014? Transitory Polar Vortex, chomped Yellen. Why did inflation not accelerate despite 'full-employment'? Transitory cellular data-plan price war, gnawed the FOMC. Why was Globally Synchronized Growth tripped up? Transitory political trade wars, chawed Powell.So here we are, 10 transitory-filled years later. Now, unless there are glaciers listening to this podcast - and it needs all the ratings assistance it can get - it's likely the audience is in unanimous agreement that the definition of "transitory" has been tortured to death. Indeed, the Federal Reserve agrees! And Transitory has been retired. Or cremated. Still, instinct informs your podcaster that much like our zombie economy, the excuse is undead and Transitory will walk again!----------WHY----------PART 01: A great improvement in the US unemployment rate (JUL: 10.2%, AUG: 8.4%) suggests the Reopening Boom hints at economic recovery. UNFORTUNATELY, we have heard this story before -- indeed, for over a decade. Other employment data imply the unemployment rate is unreal. AGAIN.PART 02: Capital market seasonality is popularly assumed to be a phenomenon of the past; a quirk of an agricultural, bygone era. Not true! They still exist. And the calendar's biggest capital market bottleneck is dead ahead: September.PART 03: Why didn't the economy recover by 2011-12? Transitory issues in Europe. Why didn't the economy boom? Transitory weather. Why didn't good inflation materialize? Transitory price wars. Sadly what's not transitory is the seriousness with which central banks are taken.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Unfortunately Like Old Times: Back To Being The Star of the Payroll Show: https://bit.ly/3hglpAIEven More Suggesting Something Did Happen In July: https://bit.ly/2Fu7uJUCOT Black: Closing In On Mid-September, What About Oil?: https://bit.ly/3mhs9BRBottleneck In Japanese: https://bit.ly/3hof06BNew York Clearing House Banks Monthly Movements of Cash to and from Interior (1905-1908): https://bit.ly/3hsLYCK A Deflationary Mindset That Isn't In Our Minds: https://bit.ly/2FyXJdO----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, who has no idea if it is safe. Artwork by "Marathon Man" David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Moonline" by Cushy at Epidemic Sound.

Last week, current and former Federal Reserve officials offered a mea culpa, saying the timing of the 2015-18 rate hikes may have curbed a potentially quicker recovery from 2008. Apparently, seven to ten years is not enough time.Well then, if time is the problem your podcaster will take a page out of Hugh Hendry's book. Recently the early-21st century Scottish philosopher suggested the Fed would be taken seriously at its attempt of irresponsibility if it was headed by the funny, mixed martial artist, media-sensation Joe Rogan. Why not then filmmaker Christopher Nolan? He offers Rogan-style pyrotechnics, plus he knows his way around time. In Memento he reversed it, telling the story from back to front. With Inception he slowed it down - allowing multiple realities to exist simultaneously. Interstellar showed him capable of harnessing no less than the gravity well of the black hole Gargantua to 'steal' decades of time. And in his latest opus - TENƎT - Nolan folds all of these ideas into the same movie. Not just the same movie, but the same frames! Entire sequences are shown with characters and objects sharing the same space but not the same eddies of entropy.Hopefully the point survives the exaggeration. A true, fundamental overhaul is long overdue and recently the Federal Reserve did perform just such a review at the end of which it announced a new, grand strategy. In this, the 25th episode of Making Sense, while we wait for Rogan, Nolan or Deus-forbid anyone with authority, Snider offers his review of the new, grand strategy.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Murphy's Law Is Fed's Law, and Everything Is Wrong: https://bit.ly/3lTWbLMPeak Inflation? No, Peak Stupidity: https://bit.ly/357HFKrRead Richard Clarida's Speech: https://bit.ly/3lPo2wOWatch Richard Clarida's Speech: https://bit.ly/2QXB793Fat Chance, Flat Phillips: https://bit.ly/3hV2RXP----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, exempt from Murphy's Law. Artwork by David "the right stuff" Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Sleeves" by Cushy at Epidemic Sound.

"I am Oz, the Great and Terrible. Why do you seek me?" They looked again in every part of the room, and then, seeing no one, Dorothy asked, "Where are you?""I am everywhere but to the eyes of common mortals I am invisible. I will now seat myself upon my throne, that you may converse with me.""We have come to claim our promise, O Oz.""What promise?" asked Oz."You promised to send me back to Kansas when the Wicked Witch was destroyed."And you promised to give me brains," said the Scarecrow."And you promised to give me a heart," said the Tin Woodman."And y'all promised to give me courage," said the Southern Lion."Dear me, how sudden! Well, come to me tomorrow, for I must have time to think it over.""You've had plenty of time already!""We shan't wait a day longer!""You must keep your promises to us!"The Lion thought it might be as well to frighten the Wizard, so he gave a large, loud roar, which was so fierce and dreadful that Toto jumped away from him in alarm and tipped over the screen that stood in a corner. As it fell with a crash they looked that way, and the next moment all of them were filled with wonder. For they saw, standing in just the spot the screen had hidden, a little old man, with a bald head and a wrinkled face, who seemed to be as much surprised as they were. Our friends looked at him in surprise and dismay."I thought Oz was a great Head," said Dorothy."And I thought Oz was a lovely Lady," said the Scarecrow."And I thought Oz was a courageous Bernanke," said the Tin Woodman."And I thought Oz was the Greenspan Put," exclaimed the Lion."No, you are all wrong," said the little man meekly. "I have been making believe.""Making believe!" cried Dorothy. "Are you not a Great Wizard?""Hush, my dear, don't speak so loud, or you will be overheard--and I should be ruined. I'm supposed to be a Great Wizard.""And aren't you?""Not a bit of it, my dear; I'm just a common man. My dear friends, I pray you not to speak of these little things. Think of me, and the terrible trouble I'm in at being found out. No one knows it but you four--and myself. I have fooled everyone so long that I thought I should never be found out.""But, I don't understand," said Dorothy, in bewilderment. "How was it that you appeared to me as a great Head?""That was one of my tricks. Step this way, please, and I will tell you all about it."----------WHY----------PART ONE: The Federal Reserve announced a grand, new strategy intended to convince YOU they are credibly irresponsible - real monetary maniacs. 'We will do it, man! We swear to Monetary Deus we'll let inflation run pure! We're not joking! Real hot. We can do it you know... Boogah boogah boogah!'PART TWO: The Federal Reserve announced a grand, new strategy form which the idea of 'full employment' is stricken. It is an implicit admission that the much celebrated, often trumpeted and frenzied waving of the "Best Unemployment Rate Ever!" flag was a mistake. It wasn't real. It wasn't true.PART THREE: America's government is spending wildly - and promises more. It does so via US Treasury bond sales. But who is buying? Are foreigners boycotting auctions? Are US banks already full? Is the Federal Reserve the last line of defense?----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------This Has To Be A Joke, Because If It’s Not…: https://bit.ly/3jB3jLtThe World's On Fire Because the Growth Never Was: https://bit.ly/34GxOv9Not This Again: Too Many Treasuries?: https://bit.ly/3b4XZwFAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, not holding up the Treasury market single-handedly. Artwork by David Parkins, Eurodollar University's W. W. Denslow. Podcast intro/outro is "So Many Secrets" by Gavin Luke at Epidemic Sound.

Magrathea. It is one of legendary, advanced-economy planets of the human imagination sitting along side Asimov's Trantor of the Foundation Series, and Cybertron, home of the Autobots and Decepticons. Sure, there are other fabled worlds like Cameron's Pandora, Besson's Fhloston Paradise Herbert's Arrakis, but these are - let's be honest - emerging economies. What made Magrathea a galactic leader in economic complexity is that it WAS a planet-building planet. As we learn in Douglas Adams' Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Magrathea has been missing for five million years. By the time we join the story it is considered long dead. The only being who believed it still existed was the two-headed Galactic President / confidence man. And, after some LIGHT-piracy, MILD-conscription and heavy-improbability, our party of protagonists discover the planet all but deserted.Actually, not deserted. Asleep. You see Magrathea's product was a "luxury commodity" - none of this off-brand, pseudo-planet stuff like Pluto. Well, "five million years ago the Galactic economy collapsed... the recession came and [they] decided it would save a lot of bother if [they] just slept through it. So [they] programmed the computers to revive [them] when it was all over... The computers were index-linked to the Galactic stock-market prices... so that [they'd] be revived when everybody else had rebuilt the economy enough to afford [their] rather expensive services."Now dear listener, you anticipate this set up is likely in reference to our own 5-million year recession - now in its 13th year. Or perhaps a nod to our own computer modeling gone berserk. No ladies, gentlemen and galactic visitors, this 23rd episode of Making Sense is about the premature obituary. Magrathea wasn't dead, merely dozing. Our own Earthly list of rash declarations are just as entertaining. British musician Dave Swarbrick, after visiting a local township, was declared dead by the Daily Telegraph to which he quipped: "It's not the first time I have died in Coventry." American author Mark Twain had to explain on TWO occasions: "The report of my death was an exaggeration." And who can forget King Arthur's quest for the Holy Grail in plague infested England when the Cart Master asked the village to, "Bring out your dead!" only to be presented a very alive, singing, dancing grandpa that had merely worn out his welcome at home? Well, we can add the US Dollar to that list. As Jeff Snider says, "the dollar’s not going anywhere. Except, of course, further up."----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkrStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Part 1 of June TIC: The Dollar What: https://bit.ly/31kjXbUThe Case of the Missing Money by Stephen M. Goldfeld: https://brook.gs/3gcX2DuTreasury International Capital: https://bit.ly/34lykypPart 2 of June TIC: The Dollar Why: https://bit.ly/3iZTDJWIt’s Not As Obvious, But Stocks Are Tipped More Toward ‘Deflation’, Too: https://bit.ly/2QeZCOF----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, aspiring Zaphod Beeblebrox. Artwork by David Parkins, a Flying Circus surrealist. Podcast intro/outro is "By the Harbor" by Mhern at Epidemic Sound.

The final setting of Margaret Atwood's The Handmaid's Tale occurs well into the future, at a symposium of historians examining the Handmaid era. Your podcaster expects a similar, future gathering of sober scholars evaluating the Time of CoVid. They'll likely conclude it was an economic and political bankruptcy - a mathematical and moral fiasco. Still, it wasn't all bad, and this podcaster imagines that sitting at the back of the room a lowly assistant will indecorously interrupt proceedings with, "At least the Funny Flu allowed Cannonball Run that stood for ages!"Before security could be called to escort this violator of stodgy proceedings out the banquet room - the iconoclast would blithely explain, that the Cannonball is an unofficial, entirely illegal 2,800 mile (4,500 kilometer, but who knows with inflation these days) car race from New York City's Red Ball Garage to the Portofino Hotel in Los Angeles. That the pre-'Rona record was 27 hours, 25 minutes. That with Captain Trips clearing the roads of grandmas, convoys, smokey, panda and the fuzz the new record was set at an eyelid-peeling 25 hours, 55 minutes. And that two general documentaries were already released on the subject, including Cannonball Run II - which is in your podcaster's sincere, very unprofessional opinion the best documentary ensemble cast ever, including stars: Burt Reynolds, Dom DeLuise, Dean Martin, Sammy Davis Jr., Shirley MacLaine, Frank Sinatra, Marilu Henner, Aristotelis Savalas, Catherine Bach, Susan Anton and Jackie Chan, among others.And it is the idea of the "ensemble cast" that makes this 22nd episode of Making Sense a special one. We try to answer three questions: which paradigm do central banks inhabit, was Aristotle an idiot, are low rates stimulative? In trying to answer them we turn to Jeff Snider. But also, Aristotle himself, and Ben Bernanke, Benoit Mandelbrot, the Bride, Christopher Nolan, the Cohen Brothers, Cormac McCarthy, Eugene Fama, Henri Poincaré, Hugh Hendry, Janet Yellen, Jay Powell, Jeb Hensarling, Joe Rogan, the Joker, Keith McCullough, Louis Bachelier, Milton Friedman, Paul Samuelson, Plato, Robert Brown, Ronald Coase, Socrates, Steve Keen, Thomas S. Kuhn, Two-Face and William F. Buckley Jr.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkrStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Was Aristotle An Idiot? Welcome Back August 9, The Answer To That Question The Key To The Next Golden Age: https://bit.ly/30UMILSThomas S. Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions: https://bit.ly/3gZiFZ0Eugene Fama’s Efficient View of Stimulus Porn: https://bit.ly/2Y0kk9tFama 2: No Inflation For Old Central Banks: https://bit.ly/3gYVuhAEugene Fama Interview (Inflation is Totally Out of the Control of Central Banks): https://bit.ly/2Y1Y7aYLow Rates Aren't a Central Bank Providing Accommodation: https://bit.ly/3iF0cBs----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, making economics erogenous again. Artwork by David Parkins, the thinking man's Auguste Rodin. Podcast intro and outro "Mt. Fuji" by Ooyy and Smartface at Epidemic Sound.

Life is full of problems. And when particularly irritated by them, we turn to professionals for help. Sure, men - especially the married kind - will insist they can take care of it. Plumbing? No problem. The Johnson-rod is loose in the car? I got it. Open wound with compound bone fracture? Rub some dirt on it. Still, eventually even men will get to a point when they'll ask for directions, because what can be done - they built the city all wrong. And so, when the technical expert is called we damn well expect they've got a toolbox of specialized, effective gadgets.For example, those tooth-yanking sadists are expected to make small talk about The Marathon Man while utilizing a tray of mouth mirrors, sickle probes, scalers and saliva ejectors. Go to the stables and you'll see brushes, sweat scrapers, hoof picks, deworming pastes, fly bonnets and liniments that will give your mare that glossy finish. One expects the same of our monetary technocrats. Their toolkit - you'd EXPECT - to hold a printing press, bond certificates, gold, as well as maps and barometers identifying the specification, production, distribution and utilization of modern money.In this 21st episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider tells us what IS in the monetary toolkit after spending a professional lifetime reading meeting minutes, transcripts and speeches. What's in there? Yeah, Magic-8 Ball. A rubber duck. Prayer book, of course. Half-eaten egg-salad sandwich. And importantly, the phone numbers of financial journalists. Join us as we discuss the monetary toolkit through the lens of: China's unchanging foreign exchange reserves, credit conditions in the United States and PMI scores from around the world. Also, we end the show by holding a candle-light vigil for the 13th anniversary August 9, 2007. The day that the global monetary order malfunctioned. A day that the then-CEO of the British bank Northern Rock said, "the world changed." A day that The Guardian newspaper analogized to August 4, 1914 - the start of The Great War. A day that has yet to end.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkrStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------What’s In The Same Number? China’s Part In The (euro)Dollar Story: https://bit.ly/3ahCjNDReading the Tea Leaves About China (Making Sense Episode 14): https://youtu.be/UTTjUGp-K-oBuckets and Tookits, Empty Each: https://bit.ly/33BNUFRPurchasing Managers Indigestion: https://bit.ly/3imBky6Author Christopher Clark lecture on "Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914": https://youtu.be/6snYQFcyiyg ----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, standing there looking pretty. Artwork by David Parkins, operating with palette knives, color charts, painting palettes, tube wringers and paint rollers. Podcast intro is "Cornelia" by The Eastern Plain, remixed by Luwaks, at Epidemic Sound.

Baseball. The nation's pastime. For well over a century the sport has nestled itself in the romantic nook of America's soul. Its greatness captured in sentimental movies like The Natural and Field of Dreams. But light is balanced with darkness and for all its majesty the sport bears scandals and self-inflicted wounds: the 1919 Black Sox, a racial barrier. And of course, there's that gray space between light and dark where tragi-comedy lies. The 1888 poem Casey at Bat. Yogi Berra's relationship with paradox and irony. The Red Sox and the 20th century.Like any phenomenon, the game has a full life that cannot be reduced to just one idea, one moment, one game. To do so would be the height of chutzpah and ego. So - let your podcaster oblige. The greatest game ever played was on February 2, 1946. Known as the Baseball Bugs game it took place in New York City's famed Polo Grounds where the Tea Totallers hosted the Gas-House Gorillas. The aged Totallers - one could even go so far as calling them elderly - were no match for the unshaven, cigar chawing players with shoulders as broad as the outfield placards. By the fourth inning the visitors were up: 96 to 0. So total was the farce that the home team turned to fans in the outfield for help. One such wasn't even a man. Or woman. It was a rabbit. Bugs Bunny.He struck out the first Gorilla with fastballs. Then - well - he changed baseball history with a single, off-speed pitch that struck out the side as three Gorillas swung three times each before the ball reached the plate. Players ever since have attempted to recreate the throw. And though pitches such as the Fossum Flip, Super Changeup, balloon ball, parachute, gravity curve and the Monty Brewster have come close, nothing has been seen like that magical day in 1946. Nothing until America's central bank came up to bat on August 9, 2007.For 13 years the Fed has been hacking away at the same pitch of monetary disorder. And unlike the Gas House Gorillas, apparently there is no limit to the number of swings it can take at this slow-moving soap bubble. In this, the Frank Robinson episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider recounts just the three most recent strikes: Gold, Dollar, and Inflation Expectations. As part of the discussion we'll talk about Goldman Sachs' claim that "real concerns are emerging" about the dollar's reserve currency status and note that negative yielding US bonds are only a hare's hair away. Also, the Euro, the yen and other important things like Magnum PI's mustache and whether Jeff likes baseball.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkrStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Would The Real Dollar Please Stand Up: https://bit.ly/3hWwyHGUS Dollar Index (DXY) Futures: https://bit.ly/3giQK6aStrike 1: Gold; Strike 2: Dollar; Strike 3: Inflation Expectations: https://bit.ly/39IlJG6The Fastball Behind Strike 3: https://bit.ly/2XjV11BOMG The Dollar!!!: https://bit.ly/2XfRamqKevin Warsh Quote (Jerome Powell Is a Barely Adequate Writer of Fiction): https://bit.ly/2BNmHV3----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, hidden in right field. Artwork by David Parkins, the Ernest Thayer of the colored pencil. Podcast intro and outro is "Suddenly You" by Golden Age Radio, at Epidemic Sound.

Now, admittedly SOME commodity prices have gone up. Half of the agricultural and livestock prices are up year-to-date. Copper is up! But these are the results of supply line disruptions and demand surges. The temporary, transitory reactions to the CoVo. NOT the persistent, broad-based multi-year inflation carried in by a monetary surge that central bankers suggest. Almost every energy-based commodity is DOWN. Most all industrial metals are DOWN. We address the issue in three segments, in this, the 19th episode of Making Sense. First, gold's sauntering up to $2,000. Silver is looking lustily at $30. Inflation, right? Central bank printing, true? Politicians handing out stipends and stimulus, yes? NO! Gold has been rising regularly - in concert with sovereign bonds - since October 2018 signaling deflation, disorder... and danger.Then in part two, America's dollar is said to be the global reserve currency. But might there be hostile nations scheming furiously to undermine the US dollar? They are, after all, selling US Treasuries on net, since 2014. Is there a dollar Pearl Harbor ahead? No. Precisely the opposite. It's the real reserve currency - the EURODOLLAR - that holds nations hostage, including the USA.And finally, Federal Reserve officials are promoting the notion the central bank will allow inflation to run. Run pure. And hot! A Bloomberg opinion column called it "a whole new ballgame [baby!]" (I added the "baby!" part). We've heard this story before. Not only from the Fed but as children. From Aesop. We knew it then as, "The Boy Who Cried Wolf".That's not Inflation's war cry. Not in this monetary disorder and economic depression. It's a publicity campaign. A caterwauling.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkrStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Exposing The Golden LieSign of the Times: Gold Has Its Most Vocal Proponents Helping Sell Jay Powell’s FictionHuge, Massive Difference: De-dollarizing vs. Being De-dollaredMore To Being De-dollaredNot This AgainThe Fed Is Setting the Stage for a Major Policy Change----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, wandering hedge knight. Artwork by David Parkins, descendant of Arthur Eld ancient King of All-World. Podcast intro and outro is "Aoraki" by Ooyy, at Epidemic Sound.

2008. Albuquerque, New Mexico. The first business meeting of what would become the best-known chemist team since Nobel-prize winners Molina, Crutzen and Rowland was not auspicious. Pinkman wanted to cook as an artist, with chili powder. White, called Pinkman's chili-p recipe -- garbage. In-turn, Pinkman dismissed White's science; all he needed was a big jar. He was actually referring to a volumetric flask, which as - the appalled chemistry teacher Mr. White responded - is for general mixing and titration you wouldn't apply heat to it. That's what a round bottom 5000 millilitre boiling flask was for. Pinkman's flasks almost certainly fractured often and leaked out.It is the metaphor of the fractured flask, the punctured pail - the leaking bucket - that Jeff Snider uses, in this the 18th episode of Making Sense, to explain why the inflationary concoction created by monetary technocrats isn't boiling over. First, we discuss why the Federal Reserve's monetization of debt isn't inflationary. Second, we review the latest inflation readings from the United States. Finally, Snider explains why the accelerating size of the US Treasury's checking account isn't inflationary either. It is all about the metaphor - technocrats and politicians pour inflationary water in yes, but not only is the bucket not a full one, ready to spill over, but it's perforated.Well, to head off a letter writing campaign, this podcaster acknowledges that a fair number of you dear listeners feel your podcasting team missed the opportunity to employ the metaphor of the leaky cauldron. To cast central bankers as a coven of warlocks preparing a witches brew of inflation. However, your podcaster prefers the analogy of the fractured flask. The technocrats style themselves as scientists, not magicians. They surround themselves with very rare 800 millilitre Kjeldahl-style recovery flasks and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, Griffin beakers and Erlenmeyer flasks. The tragi-comedy is that despite the scientific accouterments, they go about it in a Pinkman-like manner. Heating volumetrics, adding adulterants like yield curve control, bank reserves and chili-p.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkrStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------So Long As The Bucket Is Full of Holes, Treasury Demand Comes FirstTransitory, The Other WayWait A Minute, The Dollar And The Fed’s Bank Reserves Are Directly Not Inversely RelatedA General Sense of Treasury’s General Account----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, Pinkman. Artwork by David Parkins. Podcast intro and outro is "Full House Dusk" by River Foxcroft, at Epidemic Sound.

Plato, Kant, Nietzsche, Buddha, Confucius, Rousseau, Aristotle, Bastiat, Molinari, Cicero, Hegel, Hobbes, Kant... LL Cool J. The contemporary philosopher sits on the social and political branch of the Western tradition. He began releasing treatises in 1985 after collaborating with Def Jam. Radio was his first. Two years later, Bigger and Deffer. But 1989's Walking with a Panther was 'too pop-y', said the Philosophical Review. 'So much empty fluff,' pondered the British Society for Phenomenology. Dialectica wouldn't even look at it. His fourth commentary however, returned him to the top. Both the album and its most famous song were titled Mama Said Knock You Out. The single famously begins with, "Don't call it a comeback, I been here for years".Singing that tune these days are Communism, Marxism and Socialism. In this, the 17th episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider explains how to understand their philosophy and why their recent popularity is not a comeback despite the doctrine's body of work. Marxism was never gone, it was waiting for the club of mostly wealthy nations to reach the end of their capitalist potential. Well, a thirteen year depression on par with the 19th century's Long and the 20th century's Great depressions is making a good case. So then, how to counter the argument? But that's for the back-half of the show. First, a Catch-22 like paradox in bond markets. Safe sovereign and risky corporate bonds both display falling yields. Why? We look back to the last worldwide depression for answers. Then, yield curve control. This podcaster has a feeling it'll be the must-have toy for central bankers by Christmas. We look back at the US experience with the policy during the 1940s. Then Marx, Lenin and Mao take the stage, grab the mic and start spitt'n.----------WHAT----------Don’t Low Rates On Junk Bonds Mean Fed-fueled Credit Bubble? No. Precisely The OppositeYield Cap History Is Rock Solid, Just Not At All In The Way They Are Telling YouYield Caps = ToddlersFrom QE to Eternity: The Backdoor Yield CapsSocialism Would Have Been Easy to Discredit, Had There Been GrowthBrent Johnson & Jeff Snider "Breaking Down Eurodollars" Webinar by BlockWorks GroupReddit Late Stage Capitalism Thread 549,000 Strong----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emilulous. Artwork by David 'Straight Outta London' Parkins. Podcast intro and outro is "Callin Shots" by Damma Beatz at Epidemic Sound.

After half-a-century, some 8,000 episodes and numerous tournament of champions the American television game show Jeopardy! decided to hold its definitive contest to determine its ultimate victor. The trial featured three accomplished champions: Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter and James Holzhauer. The selection of these three remains one of sports' great scandals -- right up there with the Czechoslovakian judge in Lillehammer. The three contenders were fine, having won more than a 100 contests and $10.7 million dollars between them. That's not bad... as far as humans go. Who should have been in the tournament?The first contestant most clearly deserved to be Phil Connors. Connors, initially a Pittsburgh weatherman stuck in a time loop, eventually attained the status of god. Not the God - at least he didn't think so - but a god. And as a deity not only did Connors know every answer in "Lakes & Rivers" - What is Mexico? What are the Finger Lakes? What is Titicaca? - he knew the question before the answer was even given: What is the Rhône?The second contestant was god-like in its knowledge: Watson. The likely forerunner of HAL-9000, this question-answering computer system already beat both Jennings and Rutter in an exhibition match for a million dollars. A eurodollar realist and having no use for a pyramid of physical bills, Watson promptly set the money alight and was heard walking off stage saying, "It's not about the money - it's about sending a message."The third contestant inhabits that shimmering space between reality and myth called "legend": Clifford C. Clavin, Jr. The part-time Boston-area mailman and full-time bar patron appeared on Jeopardy! in 1990, where he feasted on the categories like a walrus in a bed of bivalve mollusks, which is the mammal's preferred food you know. "Civil Servants", "Stamps from Around The World", "Mothers and Sons", "Beer", "Bar Trivia", "Celibacy".It is in the spirit of these latter three - as legend, as eurodollar realist, as living through a monetary time-loop - that Jeff Snider confronts listener questions in a Jeopardy!-style show in this, the 16th episode of Making Sense.----------WHAT----------Alhambra Investments BlogRealClear Markets EssaysYield Cap History Is Rock Solid, Just Not At All In The Way They Are Telling You----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, the Vanna White of Eurodollar Jeopardy! Artwork by the Phil Connors-like, preternatural David Parkins. Podcast intro and outro is "Come 2gether" by Ooyy at Epidemic Sound.

Published in 1862, Les Misérables by Victor Hugo is "the novel of the century" according to David Bellos, professor of French and comparative literature at Princeton University. When asked on The Great Books podcast what qualifies this novel to be on the show Bellos responded, "It tackles a huge range of human experience, with an enormous amount of passion. If there ever was a great book, it must be Les Misérables." The story focuses on 'the suffering ones', 'the humiliated'. It's set in the social, political and economic upheaval of early-nineteenth century France. 'The poor people who are worthy of our pity' were caught up in the consequences of what Jeff Snider calls the first modern business cycle. Michael Pettis, in his 2001 book The Volatility Machine, identifies it as the first modern deglobalization. And Friedrich Engels called it "the first general crisis". Engels is, of course, the co-author of the Communist Manifesto, published in 1848 in response to the shocking, worldwide disorder. Karl Marx and Engels are said to suggest that capitalism has an expiration date; that capitalism was an ahistorical phenomenon which would burn up the limited fuel of labor and then sputter. And at that point communism would take over and redistribute the existing wealth equitably because there was a limit to human wealth creation.This, over the long sweep of history, is a pessimistic view of human character and potential. But humans don't live across history, they have a handful of decades. And when capitalism does find itself in a cul-de-sac as it did during the first general crisis, and the Long Depression, and the Great Depression and now this -- Year 13 of the Silent Depression, well then terminal capitalism sounds perfectly reasonable. In this the 15th episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider discusses the barricades and autonomous zones of Les Misérables, Marx and Engles' thesis, late-stage capitalism, the Soviet Union, and present-day China; but all in defense of capitalism without denying that it's going down the wrong road -- toward the barricades.----------WHERE----------Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------The Economic Boom You Heard About Never Really Was A Massive Problem That Has Them Searching For One----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, manning the barricades in the CHAZ (Cayman Highball Armorik Zone). Artwork by David Parkins, a modern-day Émile-Antoine Bayard. Music track "The Ministry" by Howard Harper-Barnes at Epidemic Sound.

Your podcaster shunned traditional university education and instead sought a guild apprenticeship. Drawn to parapsychology and the occult even as a sma' one, it was natural this podcaster's inclinations were in alchemy, phrenology, gryphography, cryptozoology and economics. However, The Inquisition and Salem Trials had somewhat narrowed opportunities in these first options; opportunities which are now reserved for only the most gifted. With an aptitude optimistically scored by one high-school counselor as "average", your podcaster nevertheless found a welcome home in economics. That field was supplemented with a minor in tasseomancy.Sometimes called tassology or tasseography, it's the study of tea leaves for the purposes of divination, fortune telling and interpreting the political economy of China. Yes, any economist can tell you about last month's results for industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. And Jeff Snider does, in this the fourteenth episode of Making Sense. We first steep and then drink West Lake's famous Dragon Well tea while discussing April's Treasury International Capital report, the echoes of 2013 and the Oktoberfest-in-June-like optimism of German Financiers. But then conversation turns to the political intrigue surrounding President Xi and Premier Li. Peering inside our porcelain cups the upward strokes of the leaves indicate a stabilized GDP level. The flourishes on the lower zone denote meticulous, yet highly creative accounting. But if one observes the overall slant and the pressure of the leaves there's a suggestion of acute overcapacity, a complete lack of recovery, and a pronounced inclination toward stagnation.If the monetary shadows are your fancy then the next time someone asks, 'Would you care for some tea or coffee? Something stronger perhaps?' - you know what to say.----------WHAT----------Still TIC’ed Off In The Shadows In AprilWhen Sentiment FliesA Chinese Outbreak (of Li v. Xi, Round 2)----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, who prefers his tea by leaf not by the bag. Artwork by the Yellow Mountain Fur Peak of the paintbrush, David Parkins. Song "Asian Fork Fight" by Lenzer at Epidemic Sound. Apologies to Michele Mulroney and Kieran Mulroney, screenwriters for Warner Bros' Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows.

Upon its release the book was met with popular indifference. And no wonder. A cautionary tale about indulgence, extravagance and social upheaval? Right into the racing heart of the Roaring Twenties and its cloche hat wearing flappers, smoking Lucky Strikes and listening to jazz? No thanks. When Fitzgerald asked his editor about the book's reception he was told, "Sales situation doubtful, but excellent reviews." The author, in response, closed with, "Yours in great depression." It wasn't until the consequences of the Great Depression that the book achieved the acclaim it holds today. Only in retrospect did perception resonate with plot. Only in retrospect did the era seem an empty phantasm.Our own 'Roaring Twenty' has no such excuse. Unlike 1925 when economic depression was five years in front of those enormous yellow spectacles, our economy is 13 years in Daisy's rear-view mirror -- run over, killed. But you wouldn't know it if your radio was tuned to the business network. When it was reported in early June that the US economy unexpectedly added 2.5 million jobs for the month of May it set off an orgy of dip buying, lest there be no dip left to buy. David Portnoy, the Gatsby of our day and host of this stock market party leaves the invitation open to all via livestream and will tell you stocks only go, "Up! Up! Up! Up! Up!"In this episode we discuss how even establishment-economist forecasts -- forecasts in which the economy runs pure -- implicitly anticipate a worse experience than 2008. An experience from which the world never recovered; not really. In this episode we emerge from sheltering in place and survey the landscape. We see the Great Portnoy, hosting an elaborate party, in the Valley of Ashes.----------WHEN----------00:32 US Employment | Establishment / Household Survey02:52 US Employment | Initial & Continuing Jobless Benefit Claims04:59 US Employment | Economically Unemployed vs. Exogenous Shock Unemployment12:51 World Economy | Consensus Two-Year Outlook for GDP 16:38 World Economy | The OECD W-Shaped Recovery Doesn't Factor in a Second Economic Wave19:04 World Economy | World Bank Forecast as Warning that V is very L22:09 US Consumers | Revolving Consumer Credit Being Extinguished by Consumers27:22 US Yield Caps | Talk of Yield Curve Caps and What About Yield Curve Control in Japan32:01 US Yield Caps | World War II Experience with Yield Curve Ceilings35:31 World Economy | The Worst is Behind Us Now We Survey the Damage----------WHAT----------What Did Everyone Think Was Going To Happen?This Thing Is Only Getting Started; Or, *All* The V’s Are Light On The RightAttention All “V” PeopleA Second Against Consumer Credit And Interest ‘Stimulus’OMG The 30s!!!From QE to Eternity: The Backdoor Yield Caps----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, someone that's not invited to the party. Artwork by David Parkins, the Francis Cugat of our Roaring Twenties.

Legendary figures took on the mantle of "Mail Carrier!" including: founding father Benjamin Franklin, Wells Fargo cowboys of the Pony Express, and nice guy Mr. McFeely from Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood. In more recent decades the profession saw its reputation sullied. Represented at one end of the spectrum by the austere, virginal, trivia-oracle Clifford C. Clavin, Jr. and at the other end the covetous and lurid Newman.But in this episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider endeavors to bring back the profession's good name, just like Kevin Costner did in The Postman, a 1997 escapist fable about a post-Apocalyptic America that begins to find its soul thanks to a mailman. The film takes on a more documentary-like tone these days. Snider as itinerant nomad, wandering the dystopian monetary order delivering long lost answers to bewildered people asking why -- in a world where a smokey haze obscures the horizon -- oil is more valuable underground and stock prices are lighter than air. "Why? Why?! Why!"Sure, Rotten Tomatoes gave The Postman an 8 percent rating with one reviewer thinking, 'Relative to this, Waterworld is Citizen Kane.' Well, this podcaster disagrees and gives the movie 100 percent for British actress Olivia Williams alone.Is the US Treasury deluge good? Are banks opting out of the game? What's the deal with foreign central banks and their dollar reserves? Can the banking system function without central bank reserves? Why buy lower-yielding sovereign debt from Europe or Japan instead of the US Treasury? How to animate reserves? Should we add asset managers to the Primary Dealer pool? Is inflation low due to Chinese goods? Why is the Federal Reserve buying mortgage backed securities? Is it a violation of the Federal Reserve Act to buy risky assets? Why is the S&P500 exploding higher? Why was there inflation in the 1970s?WHATAlhambra InvestmentsRealClear MarketsMetals & Markets BlogWHOJeff Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, not mailman material. Artwork by David Parkins, il primo ballerino of the colored pencil.

In the mid-80s parents allowed their children to watch an innocent-looking television program titled V thinking it was some kind of Sesame Street offshoot. Imagine little Johnny and Suzy Q's horror when, instead of Reading Rainbow, they were watching a sci-fi melodrama about disguised reptilians. The Visitors, presenting themselves as competent, benevolent beings here to teach the backwards ape a few things, were hiding behind masks -- including their beautiful smokeshow of a leader Diana -- and had actually come to harvest Earth's water and snack on humans. A sophisticated allegory about economists? Perhaps...The mini-series had been the reigning champion of "Worst V of All Time" until the 2007-09 financial crisis, which sent the global economy off its post-World War Two trend. Unlike all downturns since 1945, this one was different in that a plurality of economies representing a majority of global gross domestic product never regained their pre-crisis trend growth. The V-shaped recovery that three generations had come to take for granted turned out to be a grossly misshapen, lizard-like L that was visible beneath the mask of positive numbers in all manner of broad economic accounts, including: global foreign direct investment, world merchandise trade, the 35-country Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development industrial production index, etc.In this eleventh episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider, Chief Investment Officer of Alhambra Investments (and Resistance Leader) explains why 2020 may surpass the intergalactic reptiles AND dethrone 2007-09. We review the US Congressional Budget Office's very un-V forecast through 2021, estimate in trillions the depth of the contraction in the US, put into context Washington D.C.'s inadequate-sized stimulus and review the Euro Area's broad survey of economic confidence.No iguanas were hurt in this episode.WHATGetting A Sense of the Economy’s Current Hole and How the Government’s Measures To Fill It (Don’t) Add UpThe *Optimists* Have Some Terrible News For the ‘V’What Would The Hole Be Without The ‘L’?What Flood?WHOJeff Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, still working on his ABCs. Artwork by David Parkins, mammal.

We are informed by the financial press the agitated creation of reserves are, to capital market participants, a mix of whiskey and Felix Felicis; liquid courage and luck. The first manifestation of the wealth effect, which will encourage households to consume and corporations to invest. The financial market animal spirit. The economist's Patronus Charm. But what did the Federal Reserve do - and more importantly not do - in 1929, 1987 and throughout 2008-20 to support US stock markets? When was there a direct link between bank-created money and the stock market? And when was there nothing more tangible than "expectations policy" - the modern equivalent of the warlock's frantic charms, hexes, jinxing and spell-casting? Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was interviewed on the American news program 60 Minutes this week. He said, the Fed saw the market meltdown coming, that the central bank increased money supply - he says they can print 'real' money too, you know - that there's no limit to what they can do to support the economy (and also that the said economy may not 'get back to zero' until the end of 2021). We review the interview by pointing out what the smoke is obscuring, where the mirrors have been placed, and discuss how "theatricality and deception are powerful agents to the uninitiated." WHATStocks Haven’t Been MoneyedThe Reason For So Many Lies: He Finally Realizes He’s In Way Over His HeadWHOJeff Snider, Chief Investment Officer of Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, a physical (precious metals) man; artwork by David Parkins, sculptor of the color wheel.

It is often said that there is, "nothing new under the sun", and with a few exceptions (e.g. negative nominal interest rates, negatively priced oil, TikTok) that is true, even with a monetary gewgaw like quantitative easing. Japan, so as to revive its economy, has been implementing different flavors of QE for just under two decades now (that's all one really needs to know about its effectiveness). In this episode we explore what lead up to the first QE program with a tour guide: Milton Friedman.What was Friedman's analysis of 1970-90 from the perspective of money supply and economic activity? How did the Bank of Japan seemingly lose its way during the 1990s when it had 'got it all right' during the 70s and 80s? Why did Friedman believe that QE would be the solution? Why did the Japanese bond market disagree from the get-go? Why is a sovereign bond market important anyway? Why do low rates - not high - signal monetary tightness and vice versa? On the other side of the Pacific, in late 2001, with the Good Ship Q.E. having already been launched, researcher Mark Spiegel from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco raised a critical question: what if private banks don't want to put this newly 'printed money' to work? In Japan that question has remained unanswered for two decades. In the United States and Europe? Over a decade. Is it a matter of difficulty or ideology that impedes the answer? We believe it is the latter.WHATThere Was Never A Need To Translate ‘Weimar’ Into Japanese by Jeff SniderReviving Japan by Milton FriedmanQuantitative Easing by the Bank of Japan by Mark SpiegelA Tally of 23 Japanese QEs by Jeff SniderWHOJeff Snider, Chief Investment Officer of Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski, not bad at fantasy football. Artwork by David Parkins, curator of the illustrated aesthetic.

Will unlimited dollar swaps by the Federal Reserve solve the dollar shortage? How does collateral shortage in the repo market affect, for example, equities? Why does the gold price plunges when there are collateral fails in the repo market? Does re-pledging and/or re-hypothecation take place in the repo market? If there's liquidity crisis, why do corporations get such cheap loans still? Interest rate swaps go negative; what does it mean? Why aren't bank reserves useful to the monetary system? Why does a financial entity sell cash to buy a Treasury to put it up as collateral to get cash; wut? What is an individual to do in this chaos? Does stress in the interbank markets reach the real economy and if so, how? What is your definition of inflation and does asset inflation factor in?Sadly, we did not get to each inquiry. Also, some did not really pose questions but took the opportunity to send death threats and ransom notes; we love the passion! (But yes, we didn't get to those either.) However, please continue asking questions on Twitter and YouTube, and if we - or someone from the community - don't answer there, we hope to do so on a future show. WHATAlhambra InvestmentsRealClear Markets Metals & Markets BlogWHO@JeffSnider_AIP, Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments with @EmilKalinowski, professional gentleman of leisure. Artwork by David Parkins, paintbrush performance artist.

Quantitative easing, like foie gras, is controversial. The gavage-based production of duck and goose livers is considered cruel to the animal, gorged helplessly as it is in a pen. Central banks likewise perform a force-feeding, a monetary gavage of reserves forced onto the private bank balance sheet. What makes it a peculiar practice is that the monetary farmer expects this gorged banking goose to then dance around carefree - honking out credit at every passing leaf or tussled blade of grass. Since 2001 this 'monetary husbandry' has failed. In Japan, the United States, Britain and Europe. (Worse still, the result isn't a rich, buttery and delicate specialty that could be enjoyed with some mustard seeds and green beans in duck jus.) In this episode we review three articles that delve even farther back in history, to the Great Depression, to show that similar sounding solutions didn't work then either. The fear of unchecked inflation - "Weimar", for short - now that fiscal authorities and central banks are both encouraging the leaden economy to flap its wings is therefore misplaced. At least, not until wholesale reform of process and procedures within the modern central bank. Not until credibility and competence is prioritized over its credentials.WHERE@JeffSnider_AIP@EmilKalinowskiWHATWeimar Ben Didn’t Happen, So Now Weimar Jay?Weimar Thirties Didn’t Happen Because It’s What You Don’t See Everyone Knows The Gov’t Wants A ‘Controlled’ WeimarChicago Fed's Monetary Policy in a Lower Interest Rate EnvironmentWHOJeff Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, one of several people - along with Archibald Leach, Bernard Schwartz and Lucille LeSueur - who've never been in your kitchen. Artwork by the Brunelleschi of our day, David Parkins.

In 1929 a plague struck Florida resulting in an overwhelming government response. The consequences were not only agricultural but financial as banks, heavily exposed to the Sunshine State's horticulture sector, approached insolvency. Bank stability, Federal Reserve responses and a suitcase stuffed with six million dollars are all part of the thrilling story. But so is the notion of bureaucratic delay, wild swings from hope to despair (and back), contemporary titans of industry offering reassuring words, and the impotence of human effort against the monstrous chaos of a complex system reverting back towards simplicity.In today's day, the US Treasury bond market was warning for the better part of two years that the monetary, financial and economic - to say nothing of the political and social - facets of our system were fragile. Weak. Already enervated by six years of political upheaval and a dozen years of monetary disorder. The virus was the banana peel upon the wall that Humpty Dumpty was dancing on.The United States and European Union GDP estimates for the first quarter corroborate the bond market's opinion. Though the virus, and the government response to it, only took hold in the final month of the quarter (with exceptions of course, Italy for example) the result was catastrophic nonetheless. In other words, the US and EU economies were already stumbling about the street, late at night after a 12-year bender when Corona stepped out from the shadowy alleyway with a billy club and an appetite for mayhem.1929 Florida Plague as ParableBond Markets Dismiss FedQ1 US GDPQ1 EU GDPJeff Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments and Officer of the Offshore with Emil Kalinowski, Getting His Pump On. Artwork by the Caravaggio of caricature, David Parkins.

The Earl of the Eurodollar Jeff Snider (@JeffSnider_AIP), Chief Investment Officer at Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski (@EmilKalinowski) discuss the four topics.First, what happened this past week when the price of oil to be delivered in May was priced at a negative $50(ish) dollars per barrel? And much more importantly than the bizarre price, what does the back-half of the oil futures curve say about the medium-term condition of the global economy? Nothing good unfortunately.Second, why do well respected names in the financial industry continue to believe that US Treasury yields will rise? They are called Bond Kings and one of them recently had to take off his crown (temporarily). But was it the Fed's changing policy that caused the change of heart? Or was it the bond market all along who was signaling the bond kings wore crowns but nothing else?Third, the important German ZEW survey shows very sharp pick-up in optimism. No surprise, ZEW survey respondents traditionally respond very positively to central bank 'liquidity' programs, even if the real economy does not follow through. It is the legendary Greenspan Put gone international.Fourth, the multi-decade Japanese experience regarding 'overwhelming' purchases of stocks and bonds is instructive for investors counting other advanced economy central banks buying financial instruments. It seems bullish, on the surface at least. But recently the Bank of Japan opened the taps and increased their equity purchases to record amounts. The result? A 31 percent decline. You're welcome.Alhambra Investment articles discussed:Let Japan Show You Again Just How Laughable The Idea That Central Banks Can Support MarketsThe Greenspan BellThe Fallen Kings & The Bond Throne of CollateralWhat Was Monday’s Negative Oil, And Why It Was Overshadowed On Tuesday

Jeff Snider, Chief Investment Officer of Alhambra Investments and Baron of the Balance Sheet @JeffSnider_AIP and Emil Kalinowski, Not Hard on the Eyes @EmilKalinowski.The World Trade Organization offered two outlooks for 2020-21, one that is not terrible and the other distinctly so. Jeff and Emil discuss how getting back to previous levels would be an impressive achievement in itself and how it suggests that central bank actions are limited in their impact on the broader economy.The US labor force shrank a horrifying 1.6 million people in March which is almost as much as the entire 2007-09 contraction. Jeff explains what the difference is between unemployment and exiting the labor force entirely.The oil market has experienced a conniption fit over the last month but in the last couple of weeks only the front half of the futures curve is still having a full body dry heave. The back half, the half that represents market expectations of future economic activity levels, has settled down. Where it has gotten cozy offers no inspiration about the economic outlook.

We draw on five articles posted at Alhambra Investments to draw out the difference between a central bank - central to money supply - and a bank authority - central to a smooth functioning banking system. Jeff notes that we are not facing a local banking crisis that requires a banking authority but an international 'money' supply problem (there's not enough of it). Not only is the Fed not central to that money supply but nobody is. Interestingly Jeff is not concerned about another banking crisis per se as the banks have been barricading themselves behind "fortress balance sheets" for a dozen years now. Also, Jeff explains why he's not - for now - concerned about a sovereign debt default cycle nor a corporate credit default cycle. Instead he fears a 2008-style (or worse) liquidity crisis. This entirely plausible - and perhaps straight up probable - crisis would then starve perfectly healthy businesses of the required funding to keep operating.Articles covered include: "What Is The Fed’s New FIMA? The Potential For A SHADOW Shadow Run Is Very Real", "Banks Or (euro)Dollars? That Is The (only) Question", "(No) Dollars And (No) Sense: Eighty Argentinas", "Dollar, Not Bank" and "The Empty Bank".

Jeff Snider, Alhambra Investments Chief Investment Officer (@JeffSnider_AIP) and Emil Kalinowski (@EmilKalinowski) review three topics. We review three articles Jeff wrote this week, trying to explain them a bit more than perhaps may be apparent at first glance. Firstly, why repurchase agreement stresses materialize prior to quarter-end. Secondly, why low-low-low-limbo-proof interest rates (e.g. effective Federal Funds, overnight repo market rates) are not signalling success but further interbank stress. Thirdly, why LIBOR and near-month Eurodollar futures are rising despite the "greatest liquidity event since Noah".

This inaugural episode discusses the goal of building a collaborative, educational community to discuss the creation, destruction and redistribution of modern monetary formats throughout the global economy. A strange kind of money, so unlike what we're used to seeing in our pockets, but a money that is needed to finance activity, trade and progress. We briefly touched upon the nature of money, the un-centralness of central banks and identified the financial collateral markets - not cash or bank reserves - as the source of the monetary disorder that has spilled out into the broader economy in conjunction with the developing international health emergency. The disorder is in the repurchase agreement market and it lies with collateral, specifically there's not enough of it. Hence, these intermittent liquidity squeezes that have over the past 12 years spread like contagion into the wider economy. "You can't take out your spine and hope to stand up; that's really what the [repurchase agreement] market is. The way the repo market functions is more collateral-based than it is bank reserves or cash. The lack of collateral is a massive, massive problem."