Oil Bears, Equity Bulls
The World Trade Organization's projections, America's labor force participation and the oil futures market are each suggesting that long-term economic damage has already been absorbed. A sharp, smart global recovery looks improbable.
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Show Notes
Jeff Snider, Chief Investment Officer of Alhambra Investments and Baron of the Balance Sheet @JeffSnider_AIP and Emil Kalinowski, Not Hard on the Eyes @EmilKalinowski.
The World Trade Organization offered two outlooks for 2020-21, one that is not terrible and the other distinctly so. Jeff and Emil discuss how getting back to previous levels would be an impressive achievement in itself and how it suggests that central bank actions are limited in their impact on the broader economy.
The US labor force shrank a horrifying 1.6 million people in March which is almost as much as the entire 2007-09 contraction. Jeff explains what the difference is between unemployment and exiting the labor force entirely.
The oil market has experienced a conniption fit over the last month but in the last couple of weeks only the front half of the futures curve is still having a full body dry heave. The back half, the half that represents market expectations of future economic activity levels, has settled down. Where it has gotten cozy offers no inspiration about the economic outlook.