Eurodollar University

PART 01: What should a central bank be? What does one do? Is what the Fed does 'central banking'? What did Ben Bernanke promise in 2002 that the Fed would never do again -- learning the lesson of the 1930s -- and how did he break his promise less than 5 years later?PART 02: In March 2020 long-term US Treasury yields shot higher - why? Aren't these safe assets? Did the 'Treasury market break'? No. Yields shot higher due to illiquidity. And liquidity is JOB #1 of a central bank. So... here's looking at you Federal Reserve.PART 03: Central banks inject liquidity into money markets to PREVENT a crisis. Let us review the last 14 years: Global Financial Crisis I (2008), European Sovereign Debt Crisis (2011), Chinese Reserve Crisis (2015), Global Financial Crisis II (2020). Not too good. Do they know what they're doing?---------SEE IT-----------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr--------REFERENCES--------When You Aren’t Actually A Central Bank, Part 1: The Real Inflation: https://bit.ly/350rgXeThe Fed Is the Perpetual Janitor, Cleaning Up After Itself: https://bit.ly/3ird5CwWhen You Aren’t Actually A Central Bank, Part 2: The Stubborn Deflation: https://bit.ly/3x5fMxtAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Right Timing" by Cushy at Epidemic Sound.

PART 01: A new measure of the monetary order will be unveiled at the end of this two-part episode. But first, a discussion of uncertainty, incomplete pictures, relativity, perspective and the limits of human knowledge. Also, bank reserves and repurchase agreements.PART 02: Within the US Triparty Repo environment, utilizing data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, we observe that three dollar shortages between 2010-20 appeared as a stagnation and/or contraction in observations per repurchase agreement transaction.---------SEE IT-----------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr--------REFERENCES--------The First Part of the Quantum of Money: QE, Repo, and…Niels Bohr: https://bit.ly/3fRdITUThe Second Part of the Quantum of Money: Results From The Triparty Repo Experiment: https://bit.ly/3vSWzPsNY FRB Tri-Party/GCF Repo: https://nyfed.org/2TxpV7BAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 ---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "36mm" by Jobii at Epidemic Sound.

Historian and political economist Daniel Oliver's commentary on why the quantity of currency is less important than the quality of the collateral backing it. In the USA the quality of the Federal Reserve's assets suggests two options remain: searing hyperinflation or wrenching austerity. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.----------WHO----------Daniel Oliver of Myrmikan Capital. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Glitterati" by Fox Morrow at Epidemic Sound.----------WHAT----------The Path to Hyperinflation: https://bit.ly/3uDNmZW----------WHERE----------Daniel Oliver's Writings: http://www.myrmikan.com/Daniel Oliver's Twitter: https://twitter.com/myrmikanEmil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiJeff's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPArt: https://davidparkins.com/---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

PART 01: All of a sudden the Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo Program has exploded higher to half-a-trillion dollars. Why? The mainstream, orthodox narrative is that 'this is fine'; a response to 'too many bank reserves'. What does it really mean? Collateral scarcity. Systemic fragility. A warning.PART 02: Chile, one of the 20th-century's rare economic success stories - from a low level of development to just short of advanced - held an election to rewrite its constitution. The winners? Anti-capitalists. And why not? After all, if a decade-long depression is capitalism...PART 03: In the 15th century there was a Great Bullion Famine, which was solved by "ghost money". In the 1950s there was a Dollar Shortage, which was solved by the "eurodollar". In 2007 the Great Eurodollar Famine began (and hasn't ended!). Will it be solved by crypto currencies?---------SEE IT-----------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr--------REFERENCES--------Reserving Observations On The Reverse Repo Of Reserves: https://bit.ly/3c4hyXzNo Reserving Interpretation About Reverse Repo Collateral Connection(s): https://bit.ly/3usmxb7Chilling Global Wind Blowing Stronger: Chilly In Chile: https://bit.ly/3vy1Yv9We'll Continue Hearing About a Global Recovery That Isn't Real: https://bit.ly/3yW4TQzMonetary Wrongness Has Authored a Crypto Response: https://bit.ly/3uzLIZ4Enter the Ghost - Cashless Payments in the Early Modern Low Countries, 1500-1800: https://bit.ly/3fuagyCThe Vagaries of the Sea: Evidence on the Real Effects of Money from Maritime Disasters in the Spanish Empire: https://bit.ly/3fwXKyrAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 ---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "All Right" by William Benckert feat. Johan Tengholm, Jonas Bäckman at Epidemic Sound.

PART 01: On May 26, 2021 the Earth will witness a Super Flower Blood Moon - a sure sign of the apocalypse (again). It is no wonder then that, with the end upon us all, the Federal Reserve took the opportunity to confess in their recent meeting minutes that bank reserves are not money.PART 02: There may be no better view into the incomprehensibly complex global monetary order than the Treasury International Capital report. We review the March TIC report and find a number of positive, good reflationary signals. We also find a number of bad, anti-reflationary warnings.PART 03: A review of three economic accounts and three monetary accounts produce the same message: "Meh". Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment and Industrial Production point to continued economic deceleration. Meanwhile the People's Bank of China is not bothering to stimulate. Why? ---------SEE IT-----------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr--------REFERENCES--------Inflation Huge: Jay Powell Did Blink, But It Had *Nothing* To Do With ‘Taper’: https://bit.ly/3vnrJOzMinutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (April 27–28, 2021): https://bit.ly/3bVjnpJTIC Reflation Rolling (Over?): https://bit.ly/3fQwPwgChina Repeats Its Same Case For No-Inflation Bond Yields: https://bit.ly/3wHPMrTThe Chinese Money Behind Global Inflation Baseball: https://bit.ly/3fwgdevAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Scary Stairsteps" by Stationary Sign at Epidemic Sound.

"Inflation" is a generalized, sustained increase in consumer prices. A spike in consumer prices is just that - a transitory spike. Watch as Jeff gives four reasons and examples (2000, 2008, 2021 bond yields and auctions) why the probabilities favor a rise in CPI, not "inflation".---------SEE IT-----------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----EPISODE #77 TOPICS----00:00 What is the difference between a rise in consumer prices and inflation?02:10 What are some examples of generalized "inflation" versus "consumer price increase"04:09 Does generalized, sustained inflation mean real generalized, sustained economic activity?06:30 The summer-autumn of 2000 delivered surging inflation - right on the cusp of a recession.09:06 The bond market looked through the 2000 inflation surge to... the incoming recession.13:06 The bond market looked through the 2008 inflation surge to... the incoming recession.17:43 The April 2021 reading of US consumer price (including core) was nuclear explosion hot.19:46 In 2000 we witnessed a similar inflation shock, that was not sustained (transitory?).21:23 Since 2000 we have witnessed a number of inflation SURGES... that proved transitory.23:18 What would change Jeff's mind about "transitory" inflation?26:04 Producer prices were reported at the same time as CPI, strong but perhaps base effects?28:30 The secondary bond market seems to be unbothered by both the CPI and PPI readings.31:06 The primary bond market showed no perturbance; auctions went off swimmingly.32:47 US Treasury 4-Week Bill auctions have been delivering "zeros" - demand is so high!33:38 The balance of probabilities is that the market sees "transitory" inflation.--------REFERENCES--------How Can Anyone In Their Right Mind Say This Much Inflation Is Transitory?: https://bit.ly/3bO8k1wWhat CPI (and PPI)?: https://bit.ly/34cONUnAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 ---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins.

Historian and geopolitical strategist George Friedman's commentary on two concepts of international relations: a liberal international order and a rules-based system. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.----------WHO----------George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "South Is That Way" by Lofive featuring Divty at Epidemic Sound.----------WHAT----------The Myth of a Rules-Based World: https://bit.ly/3ugx2yP----------WHERE----------George Friedman's Writings: https://bit.ly/3gUl7msGeorge Friedman's Twitter: https://twitter.com/George_FriedmanGeopolitical Futures: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/Geopolitical Futures Twitter: https://twitter.com/gpfuturesEmil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiJeff's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPArt: https://davidparkins.com/---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

PART 01: In the 1930s the economic devastation was so bad that only radical solutions remained. But then, like now in our Silent Depression, radicalism does not mean success necessarily. The key is to first understand why the devastation in the first place. Otherwise? Dictators.PART 02: Starting in October 2019 the Federal Reserve began to buy US Treasury Bills, EXCLUSIVELY. Starting in March 2020 the Fed stopped buy UST Bills, EXPLICITLY. What happened in between? Only the second Global Financial Crisis. 'Oops! Sorry we stripped the system of collateral.'PART 03: Claudius Ptolemy, a genius, reconciled a geocentric model of the Universe with unexpected planetary paths with "deferent", "epicycle", "eccentric" and "equant" movements. Ben Bernanke, a technocrat, reconciled the unexpected path of bond yields with "term premia".---------SEE IT-----------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr--------REFERENCES--------Higher Prices Must Be Engineered to Restrain Dictators: https://bit.ly/3ttRxXtSOMA’s Been Talking For Over A Year: Jay’s Got Some Explaining To Do (bills): https://bit.ly/33sXYjaGlobal, Not Term Premiums: What Low Yields Really Say: https://bit.ly/2RCgVgLIs There a Global Factor in U.S. Bond Yields?: https://bit.ly/3f7qjRoAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 ---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Fort Green Sunset" by Brendon Moeller at Epidemic Sound.

Geopolitical analyst Allison Fedirka explains what made some countries socioeconomic success stories, where the next emerging market stars may be, and whether a decentralized international balance is in our future.---------SEE IT-----------Geopolitical Futures: https://bit.ly/3hv7Px0LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3eN7qEiTwitter: https://twitter.com/AFedirkaAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----EPISODE #74 TOPICS----01:10 Allison Fedirka, director of analysis for Geopolitical Futures (and polyglot!) as guest.06:18 Uruguay is the (very?) rare socioeconomic success story - how did they do it?14:52 Chile is the (very?) rare socioeconomic success stories - how did they do it?18:55 Where does long-term political stability emanate from?23:46 Which country or region has the potential to be the next emerging market success story?26:52 How does the trend of deglobalization factor into geopolitical analysis?29:31 Which countries demonstrate and execute successfully on a long-term vision? How do they?40:06 Was the conceit of post-Cold War Globalization that it was inevitable and an evolution?45:23 The biggest danger to geopolitical strategists is to not forecast serious changes.49:40 What does the next world order look like? What is the next geopolitical equilibrium?55:01 Is a decentralized international order possible?60:57 Does cryptocurrency fit into a geopolitical analysis? What's its presence in S. America?66:37 Do either Argentina or Venezuela, once wealthy nations, hold lessons for rich countries?--------REFERENCES--------Geopolitical Futures: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/welcome/ ---------WHO-----------Allison Fedirka, director of analysis for Geopolitical Futures, with Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments, and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Queen of the Night" by Andrés Cantú at Epidemic Sound.

Might the economy take off? According to a Wall Street Journal opinion column, solid wage growth and unfilled openings point to much less labor market slack than headline unemployment data. Jeff Snider reacts live.---------SEE IT-----------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----EPISODE #73 TOPICS----00:58 Some data suggests the US labor market is starting to look - well - tight.02:08 Expect to hear about labor shortages and bottlenecks for the rest of the year.02:46 In a bad labor market workers would accept much lower pay. That hasn’t happened.04:34 Another sign of a tightening labor market: employers having trouble staffing up.06:59 Why do some numbers suggest labor slack while other numbers suggest it is tight?09:20 Greg Ip suggests "Only a small share of those labor market dropouts want a job."14:52 The jobs market is not as bad as we think, therefore there is a risk of inflation.--------REFERENCES--------The Job Market Is Tighter Than You Think: https://on.wsj.com/3heuQ7qAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 ---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Sunset Drive" by Future Joust at Epidemic Sound.

From 2009-12 Buffett warned that emergency monetary and fiscal action would stoke inflation, that the dollar was in the hands of a profligate Congress and that Treasuries would lose real value. He was wrong. Now he's back."Number one rule of Wall Street: nobody - I don't care if you're Warren Buffett or Jimmy Buffett - nobody knows if the stock's going to go up, down, sideways, or in [#]ucking circles; least of all stockbrokers. It's all a Fugazzi. You know what a Fugazzi is?"- Matthew McConaughey as Mark Hanna in "The Wolf of Wall Street"---------SEE IT-----------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZVurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----EPISODE #72 TOPICS----01:16 Howard Buffett, Warren's father, was an outspoken opponent of the New Deal fiscal deficits03:04 Prior to 1933 the gold standard was an opportunity for people to act as 'bond vigilantes'05:14 In 2009 Buffett warned of fiscal irresponsibility; the dollar's value in danger (nope).09:21 In 2011 Buffett warned that the US dollar purchasing power would suffer losses (nope).12:13 In 2011 Buffett warned that the potential for inflation was significant (nope).12:26 In 2012 Buffett warned that the value of US Treasuries would suffer real losses (nope).14:29 Are stocks a discounting mechanism that accurately reflect economic fundamentals? (nope).17:14 Have US stocks, since 2008, performed better during non-QE periods than QE periods?20:06 Academic studies explain that the three ways QE may affect the economy don't affect it.24:25 In 2021 Buffett warns that inflation is happening and that the US economy is red hot. 26:03 Is inflation a K-shaped phenomenon where the less-well off are bearing the brunt of it?--------REFERENCES--------Is Warren Buffett Beautiful?: https://bit.ly/2Q13nuJBuffet's "The Greenback Effect": https://nyti.ms/3f2mey3Crypto & Coffee with @NicholasBlack60: https://youtu.be/oaz-n6ayL1wAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 ---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments, and Emil Kalinowski short stocks since March 6, 2009. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "The Bayou" by Tigerblood Jewel at Epidemic Sound.

Professor Sissoko focuses attention on the fact that the post-2008 financial system has changed dramatically but that technocrats have not tackled what the changes mean. Sissoko discusses the path to the 2008 and 2020 shocks and proposes we turn the clock back to a wiser time.---------SEE IT-----------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----EPISODE #71 TOPICS----01:57 Who is Carolyn Sissoko, associate professor of at the University of the West of England?05:41 What legal decisions led to such a preeminent position for the modern day repo market?11:03 The Fed delivered liquidity in 2008 and 2020 but should markets come to count on it?17:02 Profound legal changes in financial markets caught central bank economists unawares.19:26 A summary of Carolyn's "The Collateral Supply Effect on Central Bank Policy"22:27 When the Fed stopped freely financing intraday credit for banks, it encouraged repo25:30 Is a collateralized loan safer than uncollateralized at both the micro and macro levels?27:36 What 'moment' led to the 'birth' of the modern-day, systemically critical repo market?34:15 Is the repo market inherently and irredeemably unstable?39:27 Is there a solution: central counterparty, dealer of last resort, standing repo facility43:16 Carolyn suggests the best solution is to return to an unsecured interbank money market--------REFERENCES--------Dr. Sissoko's Twitter: https://twitter.com/@csissokoDr. Sissoko's "The Collateral Supply Effect on Central Bank Policy": https://bit.ly/3tCslOVDr. Sissoko on Social Science Research Network: https://bit.ly/3fhK5KjDr. Sissoko's Macro Musings Interview: https://bit.ly/3trTCTV ---------WHO-----------Carolyn Sissoko, associate professor of economics at the University of the West of England with Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments, and Emil Kalinowski. Art by the Mr. Chips of colour, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Revolt" by Luwaks at Epidemic Sound.

Historian and geopolitical strategist George Friedman's commentary on the (un)likelihood of war with China and Russia. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.----------WHO----------George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Sweet Violet" by Yi Nantiro at Epidemic Sound.----------WHAT----------The Unlikelihood of a War With China and Russia: https://bit.ly/2Rg3LWnThe most dangerous place on Earth: https://econ.st/3nHHcG5Putin’s next move: https://econ.st/3aVQQQw----------WHERE----------George Friedman's Writings: https://bit.ly/3gUl7msGeorge Friedman's Twitter: https://twitter.com/George_FriedmanGeopolitical Futures: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/Geopolitical Futures Twitter: https://twitter.com/gpfuturesGeopolitical Futures Podcast: https://bit.ly/3tgFahjEmil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

The Economist magazine states that "the covid-19 crisis is highlighting the limits of unemployment-insurance figures" and therefore "jobless-claims data give little insight into America’s economy". Jeff Snider reacts Live! to the article and offers his own thoughts.---------SEE IT-----------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----EPISODE #69 TOPICS----01:34 The Economist finds some of the unemployment data in the United States unbelievable03:32 The 80 million claims filed last year does not mean that 80 million were unemployed05:09 The Economist implies that because the 80M is preposterous the other labor stats are too07:34 It is legitimate to acknowledge distortions to the labor stats; there are anomalies09:32 Many economic accounts indicate that bad news in unemployment is perfectly reasonable10:22 The jobless claims / labor market is improving over recent weeks.13:13 Is there a clearly, unambiguous positive economic metric in the US economy?--------REFERENCES--------Why jobless-claims data give little insight into America’s economy: https://econ.st/3xzZn5rAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 ---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Rollerblade" by Arc De Soleil at Epidemic Sound.

PART 01: The rise and fall of an arbitrage trade by hedge funds known as the Treasury cash-futures basis trade. That was the focus of an excellent research paper by two government researchers. But there's just one problem. They don't ask what caused the rise of the basis trade in the first place.PART 02: Open interest in US Treasury Long Bond futures have crossed the 800,000-line only a few times in the past quarter-century. Nothing ever good happened in markets or the world economy when that happened. Where are they today? Almost 1.2 million. Why, who and when?PART 03: On April 23 the 5-year US Treasury Inflation Protected Security auction resulted in LOWER inflation expectations. For years now these auctions conveyed RISING market-based inflation expectations. But now? With monetary 'printing' and fiscal 'stimulus' gone wild the market says, "Put your shirt back on."---------SPONSOR----------But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! Friends, are you employed by the Ministry of Treasure? Do your political masters require foaming asset prices to placate the great unwashed? Are you unsure how to balance maniacal froth with sustainable momentum? Then a box of Bath Suds from Eurodollar Enterprises is for you! Yes, practice blowing bubbles in the gurgling luxury of your free-standing clawfoot tub. Find the perfect mix between liquidity and hot air with the capital markets foam formulation. Our line of bubble brews include: currencies, commodities, cryptos and collectibles. Blow them all! Orders received today will come with a fussy central banker - typically retailing for the price of hedge fund general partner - absolutely free! Simulate the political arena trying to blow it in the presence of an erratic technocrat. Don't blow it! Blow it, with Bath Suds. New! From Eurodollar Enterprises. (Central banker swimsuit not included.)---------SEE IT----------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr--------REFERENCES--------A Profound Statement In the Ongoing Saga of Shadow Money: https://bit.ly/3aOcHcsHedge Funds and the Treasury Cash-Futures Disconnect: https://bit.ly/3nIqFBVThe Warehouse Gap Does Much To Fill In Why There Were Never Too Many Treasuries: https://bit.ly/332LpL5What Is It About TIPS 5s Auctions? What Was It About *This* One?: https://bit.ly/3gObbLnAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 ---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski, all about that basis (trade). Art by the nice version of Gordon Ramsey, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Pa Na Ma" by Giants' Nest at Epidemic Sound.

PART 01: Government stimulus seems to work sometimes (e.g. US recessions after WW2). Other times it clearly fails: 1970s USSR, 1980s S. America and Africa, 1990s Japan, and USA post-2008. Presidents Bush (ECA 2008), Obama (ARRA 2009) and Trump (TCJA 2017) tried and failed. Will Biden be any different?PART 02: When public debt rises to around 90% of GDP economic growth falls by 1% each year. A review of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff's study and a look at global debt levels in 2008, 2011 and 2020.PART 03: US Treasury Securities are the financial system's best collateral. But quantitative easing pulls Treasuries out of the system! In response market participants are 'forced' to repledge the SAME security more and more and more and more and more and more (and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more)!---------SPONSOR----------The motion picture event of the summer: (Con)Tango & Cash. When an international smuggling ring uses the local commodity exchange to send gold into backwardation, two macroeconomists take matters into their own hands... and onto the spot market. Starring Travis 'the President' Kimmel as Contango, "You can take delivery of lead -- punk." And Steven 'the Monarch' Van Metre as Cash, "You know how I promised to let you close out that trade?" "Yeah man, you did Cash! You did promise!" "I lied."With Grant Williams as the polite British guy, “Well chaps, you put the mockers on, didn’t you?” This motion picture will never be rated. Available only on-demand at Real Vision.---------SEE IT-----------Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr--------REFERENCES--------Neither Keynes, Trump, Pumps Nor Priming: https://bit.ly/3gBbE39The Economist: America’s extraordinary economic gamble https://econ.st/3xiGkwfThe Durable Hibernating of Vigilantism: https://bit.ly/3esvtafGrowth in a Time of Debt: https://bit.ly/2S3COplBIS Total credit to the government sector: https://bit.ly/2Pl3UHBThe QEnundrum: https://bit.ly/2QuMJDYAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by the Sir Ian Wilmut of the color pipette David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Amber Lights" by Chill Cole at Epidemic Sound.

In 2014 the St. Louis Federal Reserve noted that despite a MASSIVE increase in money the expected 4 to 6% inflation did not materialize. The researchers suggest it was a "liquidity trap". Yes, and no. But mostly no. ---------SEE IT-----------Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----EPISODE #66TOPICS----00:05 In the pre-2007 period an increase in money supply lead to an increase inflation but...02:59 ...the post-2007 period displayed a break in the relationship (or did it?!)04:57 Possible causes include: labor slack, banks not lending, and 'too credible' central banks06:59 Another cause (perhaps likely?) is the Liquidity Trap.08:16 If the Fed controls interest rates, then a liquidity trap explanation sounds legitimate10:58 If the Fed controls interest rates, then raising rates will unwind a liquidity trap14:39 In 2005 Greenspan testified to Congress that a fundamental monetary assumption had failed17:57 The Fed identified market desire for safe, liquid instruments but got the "why" wrong19:39 The St. Louis Fed paper was published in April 2014, just as the third crisis had begun--------REFERENCES--------St. Louis Fed's "The Liquidity Trap": https://bit.ly/2Qc858ZAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Amber Lights" by Chill Cole at Epidemic Sound.

-----PART 01 SUMMARY------US President Jimmy Carter told the nation that the US dollar's devaluation "is clearly not warranted by the fundamental economic situation". In fact, it was unreservedly deserved as the necessary consequence of prolonged official incompetence.-----PART 02 SUMMARY------US producer prices surged in the month of March. But Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell said they won't last, that they are "transitory". HE IS RIGHT! But the reason he gives - the covo - is not correct. No, the reason is the same one since 2007: the global, silent depression.-----PART 03 SUMMARY------On February 23rd the US Treasury 2-year auction put in some record-low bids. But then, on February 24th, the snowflake (or feather, or spark... maybe all three at once) came, so that by the 25th perceptions had reversed (melo)dramatically. Had Death come for US Treasuries?---------SPONSOR----------Friends, are you worried your monetary policies are causing lurid levels of inequality? Are you concerned civil war, its hour come round at last, slouches toward K Street? Do you worry how your supple neck will fare when the blood-dimmed tide is loosed? Then the new Eurodollar Enterprises Second Skin Neck Brace is for you! Yes, strut through The Waste Land knowing that marauding lynch mobs of War Boys pose no danger. The carbon-fibre nanoweave is comfortable, flexible and the ultimate luxury in an April dystopia you hastened. Barter aquacola for guzzoline at Thunderdome with no concern of the guillotine. Is that the Road Warrior with a chainsaw? Then save your skin... with your Second Skin Neck Brace.---------SEE IT-----------Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr--------REFERENCES--------History Isn't On Your Side If You're Looking for Inflation: https://bit.ly/3uW97EJScorching, Blistering, Highest In A Decade! Powell’s The Voice of Reason Here?: https://bit.ly/32kpNcWWhy *Only* That Specific One? https://bit.ly/2Qe8zLFAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by the Ingmar Bergman of the pen, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Strolling with You" by John Runefelt at Epidemic Sound.

The Economist says, 'No! They are white knights to be held in reserve; don't sully them with politics.' Jeff Snider agrees on the 'No!', but for entirely opposite reasons.---------SEE IT-----------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----EPISODE #64TOPICS----01:08 Central bank mission creep is a result of their failure at the original job: manage money04:38 When and why were central banks given independence and assumed a political detachment07:14 Both governments and central bankers have taken an expansive view of the latter's mission.08:06 Politicians do not want to tackle difficult issues, shirking their duty to central bankers11:30 A central bank's original mission is money - not employment, not inflation.--------REFERENCES--------The perils of asking central banks to do too much: https://econ.st/3fZNZt5Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins.

Karen King of the Harvard Divinity School wasn't the first 'professor' to discover "the long-buried secret of Jesus' marriage." That distinction belongs to fellow Harvard faculty member Robert Langdon, protagonist in Dan Brown's 2003 novel, The Da Vinci Code. Langdon was a fiction. King on the other hand was not; she held the very real Hollis Professorship of Divinity established in 1721 - the oldest, and arguably most prestigious, endowed chair in America. And there she was, in Rome, just seven years after serving as a consultant for the novel's film adaptation, to present at the International Congress of Coptic Studies. Like Langdon she would cast a stone at 2,000 years of patriarchal tradition.King had in her possession a business-card-sized papyrus, bearing 30-some Coptic words, including this astounding sequence: "Mary is worthy of it... Jesus said to them, My wife... she is able to be my disciple..." King proposed the fragment was a fourth-century Coptic translation of a late-second-century Greek gospel. She called it the Gospel of Jesus' Wife - "something that would stick", she later explained.Incredulous complaints emerged almost immediately: the handwriting appeared blatantly modern, misspellings were "monstrous". One bemused Egyptoligist noted the copyist would, "have benefited from one more semester of Coptic." Still King persisted; she leveraged her institution's reputation and that of her office to engineer a defense from the prestigious Harvard Theological Review. Not until two years later, when the forger was revealed, did she conditionally concede the scrap was "likely a fake". Ariel Sabar, the author of Veritas, the 2020 book which chronicles the affair, summarized King's behavior thusly: “[I]deological commitments were choreographing her practice of history. The story came first; the dates managed after. The narrative before the evidence; the news conference before the scientific analysis.” In this, the 63rd episode of Making Sense, we review the latest scholarship that questions the Gospel of Bernanke's Global Savings Glut. We note that ideological commitments are choreographing monetary practice. Expectations before the evidence; the forward guidance before the scientific analysis.-----PART 01 SUMMARY------In the early 2000s, bond markets ignored the Fed. Alan Greenspan called it a "conundrum". Ben Bernanke blamed a "Global Savings Glut". But recent Federal Reserve research notes events since 2008 upend the Bernanke glut and instead suggest economic weakness and financial fear as causal.-----PART 02 SUMMARY------Economic recovery? Then why aren't US Treasury Securities being OBLITERATED by the combined power of vaccines, fiscal stimulus and monetary easing? Maybe because stimulus is really 'stimulus' and easing is 'easing'. Indeed, US Treasury Bills are being bid and signalling angst.-----PART 03 SUMMARY------America's unemployment rate is a miraculously low 6% - a remarkable achievement. But behind the headlines is the sad fact that labor force participation is awful.---------SEE IT-----------Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr--------REFERENCES--------Slight, But Only Slight, Movement In the Understanding of Rates: https://bit.ly/3t9B37QThe Global Saving Glut and the Fall in U.S. Real Interest Rates: https://bit.ly/39WgTq0Global Imbalances Tracker: https://on.cfr.org/3mIWx7WRechecking On Bill And His Newfound Followers: https://bit.ly/39Ysh4YReopening 2: https://bit.ly/3s0w9skAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins.

"I glanced at the list, running over names (probably misspelled) that meant nothing to me, with my hand on the butt of my righthand gun. That one now contained a very special load. According to Vannay, there was only one sure way to kill a skin-man: with a piercing object of the holy metal. I had paid the blacksmith in gold, but the bullet he’d made me – the one that would roll under the hammer at first cock – was pure silver." The scene is from The Wind Through the Keyhole, a 2012 Stephen King novel. It's not unheard of for the horror/fantasy-master's characters to call on silver to battle something from the dark and murky gray.From his 1986 novel, IT: "But that, of course, is only a joke, and not a very good one; there is only one story left, at least one he remembers, and that is the story of the silver slugs – how they were made in Zack Denbrough's workshop on the night of July 23rd and how they were used on the 25th." A great yarn, to be sure, but as members of an advanced civilization we KNOW there's nothing in the shadows with blood-red eyes and tentacles. Then again... that's precisely why Count Dracula moved to cosmopolitan London in Bram Stoker's 1897 classic. You see, the superstitious peasants of Transylvania knew the preternatural was real. Not so post-Enlightenment England where mucus-oozing pores and frightful claws were disclaimed. And what better place to hide disgusting aberrations, but in the shadows of denial and willfully forgotten knowledge?Today, enlightened monetary-scientists placate us with soothing expectation policies that the shadows harbor no ill-proportioned beasts. But supposing there were. Is there a silver bullet we could roll under the hammer? In Part 2 of this, the 62nd Episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider discusses one candidate: the Eurodollar Futures market. But first, two researchers for the Federal Reserve uncover the horror of quantitative easing. Then we conclude with the fantasy of government stimulus.---------SUMMARY----------01: Two Federal Reserve researchers claim the Fed, "can effectively reduce the [fragility] of the financial system by reducing the size of its balance sheet." REDUCING, not growing! To understand their conclusion we discuss: money dealers, interbank loans and collateral.02: If there was A SILVER BULLET, if there was ONE RING TO RULE THEM ALL - if there was ONE MARKET TO FOLLOW to track the health of the global monetary order and world economy - it would be the Eurodollar Futures market. Incredibly, the Federal Reserve has a very low opinion of it.03: The 2007-09 crisis was a permanent shock. Neo-Keynesians do not believe such a thing is possible. But consumers? Not only do they believe in permanent shocks, they KNOW they are very real. Therefore, the Trump and Biden stimulus payments have NO CHANCE of fixing the economy.---------SEE IT-----------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr--------REFERENCES--------Seeing Interest Rates Counter To What They Actually Are: https://bit.ly/2QX730xFederal Reserve - What Drives U.S. Treasury Re-use?: https://bit.ly/2PMHCOKHow Does Reflation Look From The Point of View of the One Market That Gets It: https://bit.ly/3cKZKlbYes, Curves Have Been Forced To Speak Japanese: https://bit.ly/3uhsWWWData Downgrading Uncle Sam’s Helicopter: https://bit.ly/3sQefcX---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Shadow of a Gunman" by Sight of Wonders and "Night Remains" by Farrell Wooten at Epidemic Sound.

So says Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a recent Wall Street Journal opinion column. Jeff Snider listens and reacts to Powell's case that the disruption wasn't the Fed's fault and that the central bank did the best it could.---------SEE IT-----------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----EPISODE #61 TOPICS----01:03 Is a central bank's job to prevent crisis or to make the crisis less worse?04:34 The Fed's goal should've been to maintain US dollar exchange rate stability and liquidity06:01 US Treasuries were being sold by the market in March 2020, but why?10:28 Powell says the recovery is continuing apace and on a good trajectory12:21 The employment recovery took place almost entirely in the first months, but sideways since14:34 What role does the mainstream media have in explaining what standard to hold the Fed to?--------REFERENCES--------Jerome Powell on the Pandemic Year: https://on.wsj.com/39kdnp6One Year Later: Why No ‘V’?: https://bit.ly/3dhBaY0Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Habitual" by Ava Low at Epidemic Sound.

Jeff Snider is in his element in Episode 60, in which he observes the 20th anniversary of quantitative easing and notes the unsettling twist in oil futures; also, he reacts to the Federal Reserve Chairman who recently likened the Fed's actions last year, to the heroic Dunkirk evacuation.Your podcaster on the other hand comes out of the gate staggering by slandering everyone's favorite nation: New Zealand. Operating under the false impression that The Hobbit was a documentary, this podcaster opens the show asserting New Zealand is home to all manner of fantastic creatures like the platypus, narwhal, orcs and elves. The YouTube comments were aflame with polite indignation. The narwhal belongs to the Arctic, not Antarctic. Worse yet, the platypus is endemic to the only country in the world that doesn't care for New Zealand: Australia.To make amends this podcaster watched BBC Planet Earth with New Zealand's fourth most popular guitar-based digi-bongo acapella-rap-funk-comedy folk duo: Bret McKenzie and Jemaine Clement. So dear audience, please squint your ears at the start of the episode. When you hear "platypus", receive Fiordland Crested Penguin, which is twice the size of a normal-sized man. When you hear "narwhal", instead pick up Kakapo, a parrot that identifies as an owl. When you hear "orcs", perceive Kiwi, like the bald eagle but flightless and with fur. And when you hear "elves", glean Weka another flightless bird with the legs of a witch, a taste for pickled olives and a cholesterol problem.---------SEE IT-----------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------TOPICS------------PART 01: On March 19, 2001 CNN described quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan as "inject[ing] a large amount of money into the Japanese economy." It wasn't large, it wasn't money, and it never got to the economy. In two decades nothing has changed; not in Japan - not anywhere.PART 02: The headline oil price has been falling since early-March, but insiders were alerted 10 days earlier of possible trouble by the futures curve. What is contango? What is backwardation? Do oil futures tell us the economy is struggling to gain additional liftoff?PART 03: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell analogized the central bank actions in March 2020 to the heroic evacuation of soldiers from Dunkirk in WW2. A more fitting analogy is the blunderbuss loss at Dunkirk that necessitated the rescue at all.--------REFERENCES--------Central Banks Don't Do Quantities of Money Because They Can't: https://bit.ly/3srNL1jKiwi Busted QE And Its Relation To The Reflation Story: https://bit.ly/3ddL78QOK, NYMEX, Go On…: https://bit.ly/3cqAmknOK NYMEX, Beginning To Notice The Fine Print?: https://bit.ly/3rsmYAsWas Last Month’s Fedwire A Coincidence?: https://bit.ly/3dffKuuNPR's Full Interview With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell: https://n.pr/3crz7SaAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski, Flight of the Conchords fan. Art by Dunkirk Lil' Ship Capt. David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "New Zealand Story" by S.A. Karl at Epidemic Sound.

March 23, 2020 is a day that no financial market participant will forget. It was the day that America's S&P 500 put in its low and stock prices began their climb to "what looks like a permanently high plateau." More importantly, it was the day that Making Sense debuted. Yes, Jeff Snider and I decided that what the world really needed in the time of Covid and financial Armageddon was another financial podcast, and that we were going to give it to them. To commemorate the anniversary I proposed to Jeff that we do a retrospective. Jeff responded that he would love to - really. But he was reading through the Federal Open Market Committee's August 20, 1974 Memorandum of Discussion - again.And so instead, let me provide you with a retrospective of sorts, by playing the Top 10 Podcast Introductions as voted on by me, the introducer. Starting with Episode 14 and continuing through Episode 58 I introduce the points of discussion with the purpose of ensnaring you, the dear listener. In two to three minutes I have to convey to you the topics in an educational or funny or poignant or enthusiastic or absurd way. Sometimes I use a metaphor, other times a literary reading. Sometimes it is a suckescess... sometimes I can't pronounce the word success. Either way, it is an adventure. Here are the Top 10 Podcast Introductions of Making Sense, Season 1.---------SEE IT-----------Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----EPISODE #59 TOPICS----00:01 Introduction to anniversary, retrospective show about... introductions02:33 #10 - Ep. 43 - Modern Monetary Hypnosis (24-Jan-2021)05:56 #09 - Ep. 15 - Hey Kid, Want Some Communism? (27-Jun-2020)09:13 #08 - Ep. 56 - False Dawn(s) (15-Mar-2021)12:37 #07 - Ep. 34 - Social Contract (11-Nov-2020)16:06 #06 - Ep. 17 - Communism, Don't Call it a Comeback (11-Jul-2020)19:28 #05 - Ep. 24 - The Discovery of Oz (31-Aug-2020)23:11 #04 - Ep. 21 - What's in the Monetary Toolkit? (09-Aug-2020)27:12 #03 - Ep. 39 - Quantum Dollar Mechanics (14-Dec-2020)30:48 #02 - Ep. 30 - QE2 Syndrome: Making Economics Errata (12-Oct-2020)34:57 #11 - Ep. 28 - Interview: Brent Johnson (27-Sep-2020)36:38 #12 - Ep. 58 - Interview: Izabella Kaminska (22-Mar-2021)39:32 #01 - Ep. 33 - Eurodollarween (02-Nov-2020)----------MUSIC-----------#10 - Ep. 43 - "Whispering of the Stars" by Luella Gren at https://bit.ly/31a9ONZ#09 - Ep. 15 - "The Ministry" by Howard Harper-Barnes at https://bit.ly/398LeBg#08 - Ep. 56 - "Departure Lounge" by Brendon Moeller at https://bit.ly/3tOnTgh#07 - Ep. 34 - "All Emotions" by ELFL at https://bit.ly/395Oxti#06 - Ep. 17 - "Callin Shots" by Damma Beatz at https://bit.ly/3rer4MK#05 - Ep. 24 - "So Many Secrets" by Gavin Luke at https://bit.ly/3tOo5Mx#04 - Ep. 21 - "Cornelia" by The Eastern Plain, remixed by Luwaks, at https://bit.ly/3vS2FzZ#03 - Ep. 39 - "Otherworld" by Lama House at https://bit.ly/39b7BX3#02 - Ep. 30 - "A Most Violent Man" by Lofive at https://bit.ly/3d1YHMu#11 - Ep. 28 - "We Just Gotta (Get Together)" by Wanda Shakes at https://bit.ly/3sfVpf7#12 - Ep. 58 - "Canon in D" by Johann Pachelbel at https://bit.ly/3tOu9EI#01 - Ep. 33 - "Fugent" by Lupus Nocte at https://bit.ly/3sh5kRt--------REFERENCES--------Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, disc jockey. Art by David Parkins. All intro music found at Epidemic Sound.

Welcome to Making Sense. Jeff Snider and I are joined by a very special guest, Izabella Kaminska who has accomplished many accomplished things, including being the editor of FT Alphaville, the Financial Times blog. Though to refer to Alphaville as a mere blog, would be a gross disservice. No ladies and gentlemen, it is much more than that. It is the modern-day equivalent of the 17th-century London coffeehouse. Both, forums for transactions, spirited debate, and the exchange of information, ideas - and lies! - though Alphaville is pointing them out for our benefit. Strangers, no matter what their social standing or political allegiance, are always welcomed into lively convivial company. The topics, then like now: the stock exchange, insurance, auctioneering, politics, arts... Then? The 'not-so-old' masters. Now? NFTs. Both the contents of the 17th-century coffee mug and Alphaville could be described the same way: "'black as hell, strong as death, sweet as love' and shot through with grit."--------SUMMARY--------PART 01: Financial journalism, the necessity of skepticism, public distrust of media, press reticence to cover underclass concerns, reportage to clarify versus to convince and technology's impact on news.01:44 The nature of FT Alphaville relative to mainstream financial media08:55 The importance of skepticism and critique in Alphaville's coverage of markets13:26 According to Gallup, Americans have very little to no confidence in newspapers22:42 Media reticence to cover 'unsophisticated', 'conspiratorial' working class concerns33:41 Drawing attention to and clarifying versus reporting to confirm, conclude and/or convince43:42 Technology's impact on journalism - past, present and prospective.PART 02: Work furlough as proto Universal Basic Income, a labor force under Modern Monetary Theory, naïve accedence of Environmental-Social Governance, socialism, communism and corporate-capitalism.46:37 Political determination of economic outcomes via furlough, UBI and socialism57:36 Good intentions of MMT and ESG act as shields against skepticism; the echoes of communism1:07:52 Political considerations (MMT, UBI, ESG) will result in inescapable market consequences1:13:14 Corporate measurement of customer behavior and its political consequencesPART 03: Bitcoin free-market green energy, non-fungible tokens, cryptocurrency's role in the monetary order, intraday interbank liquidity, central bank command-economy green agendas and more!1:20:49 The astounding impact of intraday real time gross settlement on systemic, global liquidity1:30:43 Green mandates are command-economy solutions; Bitcoin may be the free-market alternative1:34:06 Balancing transparency against privacy with non-fungible tokens and cryptocurrencies---------SEE IT-----------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr--------REFERENCES--------Izabella Kaminska: https://www.ft.com/izabella-kaminskaAlphaville: https://www.ft.com/alphavilleAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Izabella Kaminska, editor of FT Alphaville and Emil Kalinowski, a Financial Times subscriber. Art by David Parkins, the Pasqua Rosée of black ink.Podcast intro/outro is a chamber music version of "Canon in D" by Johann Pachelbel, the 17th-century German composer. Listen at Epidemic Sound. Learn more about "The Lost World of the London Coffeehouse" from Dr. Matthew Green.

Will stagnation follow the Biden Boom? So asks New York Times columnist (and Nobel memorial prize winner) Paul Krugman. Jeff Snider listens and reacts to Krugman's lament that, though the relief bill is done, recovery may be harder.---------SEE IT-----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----EPISODE #57 TOPICS----00:01 Paul Krugman, NYTimes columnist, believes the Biden stimulus will not be enough02:31 Will a stimulus bill with a huge sticker price be enough to overcome "Secular Stagnation"?05:28 A growing consensus of economists believes the last decade may not have been very good08:18 Bond markets are not signaling the recovery has been very good so far12:09 What is the solution to secular stagnation?15:38 There is agreement that the economy is very unhealthy, stimulus may not be enough--------REFERENCES--------Will Stagnation Follow the Biden Boom?: https://nyti.ms/2OtQ5pKAlvin Hansen and Secular Stagnation: https://bit.ly/2NkJUnsHey Kid, Want Some Communism? : https://youtu.be/bKHzn2UaqLUCommunism - Don't Call it a Comeback: https://youtu.be/FhBQhRLmTQcAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, now hiring interns at below-market rates. Art by David Parkins, on an errand, sent by grocery store clerks, to collect a bill. Podcast intro/outro is "Cool Cat Stumble" by T. Morri at Epidemic Sound.

Space, the final metaphor. Why do central bankers offer spirographic, retrograde answers? Because they operate within a Ptolemaic paradigm - a geocentric model of our monetary system in which the central bank is the hub around which all else revolves. Why is unobservable, offshore credit fundamentally important? Because like dark matter and dark energy, this shadow money represents the broad majority of material and heat that constitute our monetary universe.Which brings your podcaster to the 21st chapter of "The Courage to Act" authored by Ben Bernanke. There, the former chairman defends the Fed's second quantitative easing in 2010 because of an economic "false dawn". No mere rhetorical flourish, the false dawn is a regular astral phenomenon. Each autumn and spring, the northern and southern latitudes respectively, will observe a triangular diffusion of light rising above the horizon. It seems to herald recovery from the darkness.But Sol won't come. Not yet at least. Light, yes. But the wrong kind. Instead of a medley of warm colors refracted by the near atmosphere, the false dawn is a sterile white, originating far beyond our Earth, in cold space. Officially known as the Zodiacal Light, we witness interplanetary dust particles reflecting sunlight.Perhaps not surprisingly, Bernanke's book had no further chapters on economic false dawns despite their taking on an astronomical regularity, arriving again and again and again in 2011, 2014 and 2017. Jeff Snider, part-time monetary sleuth and full-time cosmos student, recognizes the difference between reflation's false dawn and recovery's warm glow. In this, the 56th episode of Making Sense, we review the light coming over the horizon from negative repo rates, surging M2 money supply and rising US Treasury yields. We find it cold, fallow and gray.-------SUMMARY------PART 01: Learn why rates in the repurchase agreement market went negative. What might it mean for economic recovery, not only in the United States but globally? Learn about 2013 and 2020 when repo securities also "traded special". Jeff Snider offers two explanations, one benign (sort of). The other? Malign.PART 02: Learn why a HISTORIC surge of M2 money supply is NOWHERE near-enough to rescue the world economy. Across a group of mostly rich nations M2 and M3 are at multi-decade highs. And yet millions remain unemployed. What's missing? Money! PART 03: Learn the difference between an orthodox-economics and a shadow-money view of US Treasuries. The mainstream says, 'Too many Treasuries!' and 'Emerging markets in danger!' Is that true? ---------SEE IT-----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr--------REFERENCES--------Deja Vu: Treasury Shorts Meet Treasury Shortages: https://bit.ly/3rJMnGPWhat *Must* Lie Beyond the M’s: https://bit.ly/3rEq19LTaking You, The Fed’s Bank Reserves, And Banks’ Checkable Deposits For A Quick Stroll In The Monetary Zoo: https://bit.ly/2PRhRwEWhat Gold Says About UST Auctions: https://bit.ly/2OqPJA4Standard Textbook Dollar, Or Eurodollar Standard?: https://bit.ly/3cuDNWcUnexpected U.S. Growth Surge Could Unbalance Fragile Global Economy: https://on.wsj.com/3cndEsgHedgeye Investing Summit (2021, Mar-16/18): https://bit.ly/38TkogL---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, sweet on M1&M2s. Art by David Parkins, on an errand, sent by grocery store clerks, to collect a bill. Podcast intro/outro is "Departure Lounge" by Brendon Moeller at Epidemic Sound.

Wolf ponders what central banks should target (e.g. inflation, asset prices, social justice, nominal GDP). Incredibly at no point in the article was targeting actual money supply considered. WILD!---------SPONSOR----------But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! Friends, do you direct the Treasury Ministry? Do your political masters expect foaming asset prices? Are you unsure how to produce lasting froth? Then a box of Bath Suds from Eurodollar Enterprises is for you! Yes, practice blowing bubbles in the gurgling luxury of your free-standing clawfoot tub. Find the perfect mix between liquidity and hot air with our capital markets foam formulation. Our bubble brew line comes in: currencies, commodities, cryptos and collectibles. Blow them all! Orders received today will come with a fussy central banker - typically retailing for the price of "hedge fund general partner" - absolutely free! Simulate the political arena trying to blow it in the presence of an erratic technocrat. Don't blow it! Not without Bath Suds. New! From Eurodollar Enterprises. (Central banker swimsuit not included.)---------SEE IT-----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr--------REFERENCES--------What central banks ought to target: https://on.ft.com/38eLtu7Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 -----------WHO------------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, targeting cat-video ratings. Art by Master Quillsman, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Reversed Beginning" by Luwaks at Epidemic Sound.

"The pen is mightier than the sword." "The great unwashed." "Pursuit of the almighty dollar." These are prhases we have all heard and they come from a single source: 19th century English writer and politician Edward George Earle Lytton Bulwer-Lytton. Bulwer-Lytton was a successful novelist, poet and playwright. His political accomplishments included nine years in Parliament, serving as the British Colonial Secretary, and being offered - AND TURNING DOWN - both a lordship of the Admiralty AND the Crownship of Greece (i.e. king)! Today he is remembered for writing... the worst opening sentence in the history of the English-speaking peoples:"It was a dark and stormy night; the rain fell in torrents — except at occasional intervals, when it was checked by a violent gust of wind which swept up the streets (for it is in London that our scene lies), rattling along the housetops, and fiercely agitating the scanty flame of the lamps that struggled against the darkness."Episode 54 reviews articles by Jeff Snider covering: the Treasury inflation-protected securities curve inverting, the life span of a post-2008 reflation, the curious appreciation of the Chinese currency, as well as how Fed officials in 1937 convinced themselves of an impending inflationary storm (in the middle of an economic depression). None of those articles open in the Bulwer-Lytton style -- precisely the opposite! And yet many - some, a few... someone... And yet this podcaster wonders, how might a Eurodollar University educated author open their novel? It was a dark and stormy depression; bank reserves fell in torrents — except at occasional intervals, when they were checked by a breath of reflation which swept up economists (for it is in the Eccles Building that our scene lies), rousing along the academics, and fiercely inflating the faith in a recovery that struggled against the darkness.-------SUMMARY------PART 01: The US Treasury inflation-protected security curve has gone upside down. Indeed, it has NEVER been more upside down. What is the Treasury market telling us about the economy's prospects? Also, how long does reflation typically last? Are we closer to its beginning or end?PART 02: The appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the American dollar has paused. A survey of the Chinese services sector scored a historic low. Are these the first indications of an economic slowdown? A slowdown that is not only Chinese but global?PART 03: In 1937, like now, circumstantial evidence and biases of central bankers suggested the impending arrival of fierce inflation: huge government deficits, better economic statistics, rising bond yields and excess bank reserves. Yet the underlying condition was of depression and credit illiquidity.---------SEE IT-----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr--------REFERENCES--------TIPS Tipping Over, But Not That Way: https://bit.ly/3sVqgh4Reflation Amplitude, Important, What About Frequency?: https://bit.ly/2MSUa68What If CNY’s Backdoor Still Isn’t A Big Enough Exit?: https://bit.ly/3uT06NwThere’s Two Sides To Synchronize: https://bit.ly/3cm1j7RThere's Precedent for Yellen Demanding a Central Bank Rescue: https://bit.ly/3qoUQxFAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7---------WHO-----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, a dark and stormy host. Art by Master Quillsman, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Nocturne" by Trevor Kowalski at Epidemic Sound.

Should speculative ventures be included in calculations of inflation? What about productive investment? Housing? All transactions? Or just consumer prices?----------WHERE----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrAlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy ----------WHEN----------01:02 John Hilsenrath says the Fed has failed to hit its inflation target for "several" years.02:48 Is the Fed keeping interest rates low or is it the market? Which is the cart? The horse?03:31 Should asset price increases be included in measures of inflation? 05:08 How to interpret rising housing prices with falling apartment rental prices?08:15 Asset price bubbles - whose responsibility are they? The Fed? Other regulators?11:32 The TIPS market has inverted - near-term up, long-term trending down.13:13 Economists have long struggled whether / to what degree to include asset price inflation ----------WHAT----------Inflation Problems Depend on Where You Look for Them: https://on.wsj.com/3b1E9nBAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, not spending money on haircuts. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "About to Explode" by Daxten and Wai at Epidemic Sound.

The theme of Making Sense Episode 52 is how an environment reacts to an anomaly. Resilient systems keep these aberrations constrained. But fragile ones can retroactively redefine what had earlier been labeled as an "irregularity", "oddity" or "operational error" to something altogether more unsettling: "cause", "spark", "trigger".In part one, Jeff Snider continues his multi-week review of historical breaks to the smooth functioning of interbank payment and messaging systems. This time a look at a sequence that led to a week-long disorder to Fedwire in August 1990. Part two, also a continuation of a multi-week review, ponders what may be causing the disquieting twist in the US Treasury yield curve. Is the demand for short-term collateral a disqualification of reflation, as was the case during 2013's so-called Taper Tantrum? Lastly, some words on oil and the developing Texas power market credit crisis, in which electric retailers failed to make $2.1 billion in required payments and put the largest power generation and transmission cooperative into bankruptcy. Fedwire "operational error[s]". Unsettling demand for Bills. Texas margin calls. An approaching quarter-end seasonal low point in liquidity. A looming regulation-mandated US Treasury cliff on April Fools' Day. All anomalies... in a resilient system.----------WHY----------PART 01: Fedwire, the interbank system that transmits billions between 9,000-plus members, broke on Wednesday. The Fed says, "operational error" implying mere technical trivia - an anomaly. Why do some breaks stay mere anomalies while others trigger volatile, systemic consequences?PART 02: The US yield curve has twisted as Bill yields fall and Bond yields rise. We review a similar situation in 2013 popularly known as "the Taper Tantrum", WHICH WAS NOT A TAPER TANTRUM! Then - like now - a collateral scramble in Bills and a relief sell-off in Bonds.PART 03: What does the oil market (production, demand, inventory) in the USA tell us about the economic recovery in early 2021? Also, is a power market credit crisis in Texas causing a national run on banking-system collateral?----------WHERE----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrAlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy----------WHAT----------Why Price Alone Does Not Render An Asset Class 'Safe': https://bit.ly/3suB0Td‘Operational error’ disrupts Federal Reserve payment system: https://on.ft.com/3stDlOeFed needs to ignore ‘taper tantrums’ and let longer rates rise: https://on.ft.com/2O5ECMmWhat Might Be In *Another* Market-based Yield Curve Twist?: https://bit.ly/2ZVz4qEHot Oil, Cold Weather, Uncle Sam’s Green: https://bit.ly/3sxGJb0Power market credit crisis looms as Texas bills come due: https://on.ft.com/3dOWoOYAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, anomaly. Art by Winterfell resident, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Some Thing" by Rambutan at Epidemic Sound.

Michael Pettis of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "The Village Idiot" by Justnormal at Epidemic Sound.----------WHAT----------How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market: https://bit.ly/2P7qHWJ----------WHERE----------Pettis' Writings: https://carnegieendowment.org/experts/444Pettis' Twitter: https://twitter.com/michaelxpettisVurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

Part 01: (01:30 to 38:27) What are monetary technocrats / financiers doing to save the world economy? We review: yield curve control in Australia (and Japan!), American regulators tip-toeing away from a once-favored LIBOR alternative, and the ecstatic economic expectations of German financiers.Part 02: (38:27 to 1:05:19) A Financial Times column warns of a US Treasury Bill air-pocket in March. Learn the little-known history of a mid-market, 1970s German bank that compelled regulators to move towards capital and supplementary leverage ratios. The very ratios that may now trigger a panic.Part 03: (1:05:19 to 1:17:00) Learn how to reconcile a positive surge in retail sales with a nightmare string of 'record' jobless claims and lousy sentiment reported by the University of Michigan consumer survey. Perhaps pent up demand? Maybe. An unusual, poorly explained seasonal adjustment boost? Maybe too.----------SPONSOR----------But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! The motion picture event of the summer: (Con)Tango & Cash. When an international smuggling ring uses the local commodity exchange to send gold into backwardation, two macroeconomists take matters into their own hands... and onto the spot market. Starring Travis 'the President' Kimmel as Contango, "You can take delivery of lead -- punk." And Steven 'the Monarch' Van Metre as Cash, "You know how I promised to let you close out that trade?" "Yeah man, you did Cash! You did promise!" "I lied."With Grant Williams as the polite British guy, “Well chaps, you put the mockers on, didn’t you?” This motion picture will never be rated. Available only on-demand at Real Vision.----------WHERE----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrAlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy----------WHAT----------With YCC About To Come Back Up, A Look At It Down Under: https://bit.ly/3dvApMWAlready Tried: https://bit.ly/2ZwP9CPInsufferable SOFR, Suffering: https://bit.ly/3aAgla2Episode 34 All About SOFR: https://youtu.be/LH1wDUG-dEIReflation Patients, ‘Another’ Six Months: https://bit.ly/3pByiJFBeware, There's Another SLF 'Cliff' Coming At the End of Q1: https://bit.ly/2NdNpMvJohn Dizard's Do not rule out a market panic next month: https://on.ft.com/3pCGaLcForty-Seven Explains Much: https://bit.ly/3azo1teUncle Sam Was Back Having Consumers’ Backs: https://bit.ly/3dsHLAL----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, celebrates Towel Day on May 25. Art by the King of the North, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Zombie Raiders" by Wave Saver at Epidemic Sound.

After decades of market liberalism and fiscal fundamentalism, policymakers are returning to Keynes. Jeff Snider reacts to two recent articles: "Bond yields are not good predictors of inflation" (Peterson Institute for International Economics) and "Why economists kept getting the policies wrong" (Financial Times).----------WHERE----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrAlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy----------WHEN----------01:02 Two economists write that bond yields are not good predictors of inflation03:20 Bond yields have failed to predict inflation for 70 years in the US; three other countries 05:31 Why economists kept getting the policies wrong08:01 Was monetarism was derailed by poor philosophy? Or because measures of money failed?11:43 Monetarism ditched, so first came currency exchange targeting then inflation targeting.13:26 Positive Economics, econometrics promised wonderful, impossible things 16:11 Central Bankers use mathematics as a shield against criticism18:42 We are back where we started, time to dust off Keynes General Theory.----------WHAT----------Teenagers baffled by rotary phone: https://youtu.be/oHNEzndgiFIBond yields are not good predictors of inflation: https://bit.ly/2Zz7dwdWhy economists kept getting the policies wrong: https://on.ft.com/2ZwAgAwAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski. Art by the King of the North, David Parkins.

Financial historian Daniel Oliver's essay on the systemic consequence of the 1907 short squeeze on United Copper Company and lessons for today. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.----------WHO----------Daniel Oliver of Myrmikan Capital, LLC. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Alienated" by ELFL at Epidemic Sound.----------WHAT----------The Final Pop: https://bit.ly/37sfwOH----------WHERE----------Myrmikan's Writings: http://myrmikan.com/Myrmikan's Twitter: https://twitter.com/MyrmikanEmil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only natural that your podcaster spent considerable time contemplating the essential elements of fiction. Some experts say there are five components to it; others put the tally at six, even eight! But at the core it has always been the three elements: plot, setting and character. Plot was perfected, in the Western tradition at least, in the late 16th century by Shakespeare with the 5-act dramatic structure. Setting, given short-shrift for millennia, did not achieve co-equal status until the gothic novels of the mid-18th century. And character? Scholars point back 28 centuries to The Iliad: heroism, cowardice, pride, hubris - wrath. But the scholars are wrong. Character wasn't perfected first, but last. Not until the 1980s action drama The A-Team did this element of fiction reach its zenith.The American television masterpiece synthesized what the Great Books dared not imagine into the now classic quartet: Colonel John "Hannibal" Smith as the brains; Lieutenant Templeton "Faceman" Peck as the looks; Sergeant Bosco Baracus the muscle; Captain H.M. Murdock the wildcard. The casting blueprint can be observed most everywhere; in the arts, at the office; even family the dinner table. Central banking is no exception. In the role of the brains is Ben "Hannibal" Bernanke. The looks? Lady Lagarde. The muscle? Jay "Mad Dog" Powell. The wildcard? The audience will naturally point to Haruhiko Kuroda and, before January 28th, the audience would have been correct.On that day Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, gave a speech extolling the virtues of the sovereign-bank-corporate nexus. That is technocrat-speak for the government-guaranteed private-bank loans to private enterprise. Schnabel endorsed these "crucial" national loan schemes and encouraged Europe's capitals to continue them, warning any premature end would be "destabilising". Put another way, the baton that represents the supervision of money creation, has been wrested away from Frankfurt and placed into the neatly manicured hands of politicians, seeking re-election.The new wildcard is not Isabel Schnabel but the Euro Area member state. All 19 of them.In this episode we touch upon 1980s television shows, like CHiPs and interbank clearing mechanisms, like CHIPS. Also, why are corporate elephants on the hunt for fast-moving gazelle enterprises? Why are these elephants being offered their own fiefdoms in Nevada? Lastly, a potpourri review of Jeff Snider's recent writing.----------WHY----------PART 01: Private banks fund global economic activity. But how do they move money among themselves? PART 02: Nevada Governor Sisolak is proposing to offer corporations to set up their own local government structures. PART 03: Cautionary sign posts that say this reflationary path may not be the road to recovery but a deflationary cul-de-sac.----------WHERE----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrAlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy----------WHAT----------There's Much More Going On Than You've Been Led to Believe: https://bit.ly/3qhFnAqThe Endangered Inflationary Species: Gazelles: https://bit.ly/3dbuIDqThe Cautionary Tale of Undocumented Insanity: https://bit.ly/3deHyRIPermanent Jobs, Permanent Job Losses: https://bit.ly/37fgD47Old Numbers Show Us Why There Will be New Checks: https://bit.ly/3b41FPM----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, Tyrell Corporation full-time equivalent. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "City Lights, City Dreams" by Forever Sunset at Epidemic Sound.

Jeff Snider reacts LIVE! to an article from The Economist. The magazine offers three arguments why the US economy might overheat in 2021: evidence that the downturn is temporary; generous fiscal stimulus; and the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy strategy.----------WHERE----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrAlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy----------WHEN----------00:55 Why won't a large fiscal stimulus (e.g. Biden's 9% of US GDP) save a post-2008 economy?03:39 Why won't a large fiscal stimulus overheat a post-2008 economy?06:46 Why aren't the positive employment gains of July-December 2020 positive?08:13 Why isn't a pool of excess savings indicative of potential activity in a post-2008 economy?11:38 Did the Federal Reserve learn the right lesson from the 2013 "taper tantrum"?14:19 Why won't the Fed's new "average inflation" strategy not make save a post-2008 economy?----------WHAT----------The Economist, Fire without Fury: https://econ.st/3qnkWSuAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, seeing what the tide brought in. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Chasing Visions" by vvano at Epidemic Sound.

Sophocles won 24 of the 30 literary competitions he entered, placing second in the rest. Of his 120-plus plays, only seven survive. Eratosthenes, calculated the Earth's circumference with breathtaking accuracy. As Chief Librarian of the Library of Alexandria he oversaw the collation of hundreds of thousands of works. But not even his own "On the Measure of the Earth" survived the Library's progressive destruction by war, negligence and cultural revolution.Rashid-al-Din Hamadani created the first world history, taking advantage of his location at the crossroads of a Mongol empire with access to European, Arabic, Persian, Indian, Mongol and Chinese scholars. Hamadani, not wanting his masterpiece to be lost to time, arranged to have the work copied in Arabic and Persian every year and distributed. But his patron's death and royal intrigues cost him his station and us his work; no complete copy survives.Several scholars, dizzy by the thought of humanity's lost knowledge, tried their hand at wistful, melancholy catalogues of what might have been. Thomas Browne wrote Musaeum Clausum, "an imagined inventory of 'remarkable books, antiquities, pictures and rarities of several kinds, scarce or never seen by any man now living.'" Besides Seneca's epistles to St. Paul, this hidden library houses history's most famous box within which was the perfume of infection responsible for the 17th century Plague of Milan.Of course there's a difference between the tragedy of lost knowledge and the tomfoolery of what was willfully forgotten. It is the latter which financial market participants specialize in. John Kenneth Galbraith lamented that, "There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts so little as in the world of finance." James Grant concurs, laconically noting that, "Progress is cumulative in science and engineering, but cyclical in finance." And so, in Episode 45 the Rashid-al-Din of the Eurodollar will help us un-forget the three reflations since 2007 and how they compare to present-day. But first we review why US Treasury Bill Yields may be so low.----------WHY----------Part 01: There is a mainstream explanation for why US Treasury Bill rates are falling. There is also a Eurodollar / Shadow Money / Collateral System explanation. Jeff Snider reviews the two perspectives and looks ahead to where trouble may lay.Part 02: We look through the lenses of the dollar, Treasury yields, inflation breakevens, swap spreads to see how this Post-Covid reflation compares to the three economic recoveries of the past 13 years: Green Shoots (2009-10), Global Growth (2012-14) and Globally Synchronized Growth (2016-18).----------WHERE----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrAlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy----------WHAT----------Let’s Talk Bills (again): https://bit.ly/3q6tJs9Hey Bill, *What* Is It?: https://bit.ly/3rs3Ov3Hey Bill, *Why* Now?: https://bit.ly/2MGohxxReaching Half A Year, What’s The (Complete) Reflation Situation?: https://bit.ly/2OchADQAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, piling the bologna high and deep. Evolutionary sketches by David Parkins aboard the HMS Beagle. Podcast intro/outro is "Stand Divided" by Deskant at Epidemic Sound.

As many listeners have long suspected, your podcast host did, as a child, run away and join the circus. Not dissimilar from a traditional childhood, it was your classic Gypsy camp. If children misbehaved, we would be "lock[ed]... into stocks, or throw[n]... into a cage and hoist[ed]... into the flytower... dangling precariously over the stage." Our ringmaster, Giuseppe Grimaldi "was horribly morbid, living in perpetual fear of death, and especially of being buried alive. When he finally died... his will directed that his eldest daughter cut his head from his corpse just to be certain." Sure, perhaps quirky, but certainly not the oddest troupe - not Pandemonium Carnival. So, looking to make a career of it your podcaster tried his hand at clownship. But, by that time, famous clowns like Pagliacci, Pennywise and Pogo were, despite slaying their audience with their routines, giving a bad name to the profession. So then, this host turned to tarot card reading and hypnosis. Despite earning some minor acclaim in London as Madame Simza, your host simply didn't have the chops and was forced to turn to the only option left: a Masters in Business Administration. Surprisingly, it was an easy fit. Tarot cards - which "illuminate your past, clarify [the] present, show... the future" - had taught me everything I needed to know about finance. The card "Temperance, [when] inverted [is] indicative of volatility." If one draws "The Fool, someone has been led astray" - an investment fraud. "The Two of Cups?" It represents "a powerful bond" - a sovereign bond. Your podcaster learned about hypnosis too, except that the economics professors used different terms for it: expectations policy, forward guidance, moral suasion.----------WHY----------Part 01: Central banks cannot define, identify, measure or map modern money. And they haven't been able to since the 1970s. So instead they offer "moral suasion". That's a fancy word for threats, posturing and coercion. That's all fine and well until the global economy requires money.Part 02: How does one define an asset bubble? Might there be fundamental, non-speculative reasons why prices are persistently high? Also, why did money-financed fiscal expansion fail in Japan? What does that experience tell us about the present?----------SPONSOR----------But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! Friends, are you worried your monetary policies are causing lurid levels of inequality? Are you concerned civil war, its hour come round at last, slouches toward K Street? Do you worry how your supple neck will fare when the blood-dimmed tide is loosed? Then the new Eurodollar Enterprises Second Skin Neck Brace is for you! Yes, strut through The Waste Land knowing that marauding lynch mobs of War Boys pose no danger. The carbon-fibre nanoweave is comfortable, flexible and the ultimate luxury in an April dystopia you hastened. Barter aquacola for guzzoline at Thunderdome with no concern of the guillotine. Is that the Road Warrior with a chainsaw? Then save your skin... with your Second Skin Neck Brace. New! From Eurodollar Enterprises.----------WHERE----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrAlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy----------WHAT----------Suasion, Sure, But Is It Really Moral?: https://bit.ly/3bXMsBQIf the Fed’s Not In Consumer Prices, Then How About Producer Prices?: https://bit.ly/2NomiOd(Reinhart & Sbrancia) The Liquidation of Government Debt: https://bit.ly/363NUih(Van Metre & Ashton) Everything You Wanted to Know About Inflation: https://bit.ly/2LZ8OZ5The Fundamentals of the Bond ‘Bubble’: https://bit.ly/3qI1D6cWhen They Introduced An Even Longer Gov’t Bond: https://bit.ly/3qCYhBwThey Keep Assuring Us Japan Can't Happen Here: https://bit.ly/39UfwHPWhat is a Concentration Camp?: https://bit.ly/3iCN6G2Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, troubled by definitions. Artwork by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Whispering of the Stars" by Luella Gren at Epidemic Sound.

A recent Hidden Forces podcast with Demetri Kofinas featured professor Kevin Vallier and his new book "Trust in a Polarized Age". Vallier notes that Americans are less trusting than at any point since at least the 1960s. The timing is no surprise to any that read William Strauss and Neil Howe's The Fourth Turning. The "American High" - a period of confidence during which the society felt it could accomplish anything - ended with President Kennedy's assassination. That phenomenon - that lack of trust, that lack of confidence - can be observed even in the University of Michigan survey of consumers. During the 1950s expectations about the future always ran ahead of the contemporary condition; an optimism, whether the present was good or bad, that it would be even better soon. But, by the end of the 1960s, and ever since, expectations are always worse than the present. If we use confidence in democracy as a proxy for trust, that phenomenon is not solely American. A University of Cambridge project that includes 4 million people, covering 154 countries and combines over 25 international surveys showed 2019 to have been "the highest level of democratic discontent on record". Surely 2020 will rank even worse when results are finally published.A more granular survey by Gallup has been conducted in the United States since the early 1970s and focuses on public and private institutions. Citizens are asked how much confidence they have in: organized religion, the Supreme Court, Congress, organized labor, big business, public schools, newspapers, the military, etc. Almost at the very bottom are news organizations. The only institution in which the public consistently has less confidence in is Congress, which they recently attempted to burn down.The financial media is no exception, as Jeff Snider often makes clear in his writings. But just as Vallier expressed hope with Kofinas that trust can be rebuilt and just as Strauss and Howe conveyed confidence that institutional strength is cyclical and will return, so here, in Episode 42, does Snider note that the minority of financial press attempting to be bring truth to power is growing.----------WHY----------Part 01: Wall Street Journal columnist Andy Kessler recently spoke with Jeff Snider about central banks and monetary policy. He ended a recent column with, "The least the Fed can do is get out of the way. End QE now".Part 02: Real yields recently hit RECORD lows. Yes, inflation is rising but is that due to the real economy expanding? Real yields say, "No!". Real yields say, 'The real economy is AWFUL!' So what is driving inflation expectations higher? Fuel. Oil prices are up - but the economy isn't.----------WHERE----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrAlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy----------WHAT----------How the Fed Stifles Lending: https://on.wsj.com/3bBrqc7RealVision Caitlin Long Interviews Manmohan Singh: https://bit.ly/2XEx6JWInflation, Reflation, Or Something Else?: https://bit.ly/2Lu2PeyAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, anonymous. Artwork by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Autumn Haze" by West & Zander at Epidemic Sound.

Mary Toft had delivered a litter of rabbits - that was the news that reached the court of King George I in 1726. Obstetrician John Howard arrived at Toft's bedside in September where he was presented with several animal parts, ostensibly from the supernatural womb. In October, she delivered nine dead baby rabbits, prompting Howard to write a letter to England's greatest doctors and scientists, as well as the King's secretary. Nathaniel St. André, the King's Swiss surgeon-anatomist, was sent to investigate. Toft greeted his arrival in November by delivering her 15th dead rabbit in his presence. St. André bought the story and "took some of the rabbit specimens back to London to show the King."Despite a chorus of doubt from other physicians and indisputable physical evidence from dissection of the rabbits, both Howard and St. André continued to support Toft's story. It seems Howard, taken in by the scam at first, was doubling-down as the stakes were raised hoping his bluff would be saved by a real miracle. St. André on the other hand seems to have made his stand on, "'maternal impression', an idea popular at the time. The theory proposed that an emotional stimulus experienced by a pregnant woman" - Toft had dreamt of rabbits - "could influence the development of the foetus."Howard and St. André damaged the reputation of physicians. But there have been worse, Dr. Pepper for example - disgusting. Plenty of good docs of course, and not necessarily physicians: Dr. Manhattan, the smurfy-blue god; Dr. Disrespect, the gaming personality; "The Dock of the Bay", by Otis Redding. So, where on the spectrum lies copper with its doctorate of philosophy in economics?In part 2 of Episode 41, Jeff Snider weighs the calm supply-and-demand fundamentals, versus the Howard and St. André-like narrative that the good ship #Copper-Pop - fueled by Fed #QE-finity inflation - has achieved escape velocity, entered the #Tesla-osphere, and is on its way to the #Bitcoin-star! But first, the late-1990s Japanese government bond rout and its lessons for today.----------WHY----------Part 01: The benchmark US Treasury 10-year bond has seen its yield BLAST through 1.00% in the young year, from 0.91% on January 4 to 1.11% on January 8. Will an inflationary conflagration transform Treasuries into smoking husks of charcoal? Jeff Snider tells us what a REAL bond rout looked like.Part 02: Is the nine-month copper price blastoff due to monetary reasons (central bank printing, government budget deficits) or fundamental reasons (supply and demand)? Jeff Snider explains the fundamental backdrop (along with speculative fever) but dismisses monetary motives.----------SPONSOR----------But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! Friends, are you confused by the financial press? Are the pretty people on Bloomberg speaking in paradox? Are the esteemed pages of The Economist written in contradiction? Then The New Eurodollar Enterprises Dictionary of Echo-Nomics is for you! Yes, from AbeMoronics to ZIRP (Zero Interesting, Reasonable Policies) confidently leaf through your folio to define Yellenism, Powellution and Greenspam. "Money", a noun, is defined as "a blessing that is of no advantage to us excepting when we part with it." What is a synonym for "Wealth"? Impunity. What is the compound word for making economics erotic? "Bernanke-panky". The New Eurodollar Enterprises Dictionary of Echo-Nomics! New! From Eurodollar Enterprises.----------WHERE----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrAlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy----------WHAT----------They’ve Gone Too Far (or have they?): https://bit.ly/2LCqA3yEp. 32, Pt. 2 Milton Friedman's Plucking Model: https://youtu.be/66W9oU0iUswThe Doctor Is In?: https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/12/30/the-doctor-is-in/Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, says "fable" means "moral". Artwork by the Asimov of copper robots, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Occurrence" by Martin Gauffin at Epidemic Sound.

In the middle of the 17th century, Athanasius Kircher -- "one of Europe’s most successful scholars" -- published "Egyptian Oedipus", a magisterial three-volume folio on Egyptology that "presented Latin translations of hieroglyphic inscriptions". The three-tome folio of ornate illustrations and diagrams was the product of "more than two decades of toil"; it sourced Arabic, Aramaic, Coptic, Ethiopian, Greek, Latin, Oriental and Samaritan texts. Kircher had illustrated "mummies, sarcophagi, Canopic jars, sphinxes" as well as "almost every hieroglyphic inscription known to Europeans" and translated them "character by character, into Latin prose." It was wholly and "utterly mistaken".In the late 19th century, William F. Warren was "one of the outstanding figures" of education, noted his 1929 New York Times obituary. He was a charter member of both the New England Conservatory of Music and Wellesley College. He spent 45 years at Boston University, including three decades as president during which a number of progressive firsts occurred, such as America's very first female PhD. He authored eight books, including "Paradise Found" in which, drawing on his knowledge of "the great epic folklore of the Hindus, the Celts, the Chinese, the Persians", and footnoting in French, German and Greek, "he arrived at the inevitable conclusion: the Garden of Eden is at the North Pole."Are we, in the early 21st century, free of such erroneous scholarship? Was then a superstitious past and now a scientific present? If our scholarly leaders were presented with evidence, if they had inside information, if they were imbued with power to compel actors to share data would they goal-seek a result, like Kircher and Warren? In Part 1 of Episode 40 Jeff Snider reads through official Federal Reserve emails covering the final 90-some days of Lehman Brothers' existence. It turns out our scholars are human too.----------SPONSOR----------But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! Friends, are you a central banker? Have you been invited into the home of a member of the financial press to celebrate Christmas or Hanukkah or Ramadan or Pancha Ganapati or Kwanzaa or Saturnalia or Yalda or Koliada or Festivus but have nothing to wear? Then the new line premium quality bathrobes from Eurodollar Enterprises is for you! Yes, arrive adorned in 800-thread count, plush Egyptian cotton emanating entitlement and overconfidence with devil-may-care flair. Each robe comes with your initials hand-stitched on the sleeves, and for that added touch of superiority, the logo of a regulated institution and your prospective employer, will be emblazoned over the breast pocket. Premium quality bathrobes! New! From Eurodollar Enterprises.----------WHY----------Part 01: Ben Bernanke was informed that Lehman Bros. was believed finished, on June 13, 2008 - 94 days before the bankruptcy. JPMorgan, with its seat at the heart of the repurchase agreement market, was acting on this belief. Internal Fed emails suggest the Fed thought JPMorgan was nuts.Part 02: Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan -- America's most important bank, "wouldn’t touch" America's Treasury securities with a "10-foot pole". But JP Morgan itself is likely buying the same Treasuries hand-over-fist! Why the disconnect? Politics? Malice? Or just bad economics?Part 03: Inflation. Social media denizens claim it’s bad, that it’s ugly and that I’m a jerk. Does a professional survey of American citizens confirm that claim? On the latter point certainly – but what about inflation acceleration? Americans say, 'Meh'.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royVurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Vaccine Euphoria and Inflation Hysteria Obscure Dollar Problem: https://bit.ly/37tfO8pInflation HyZ1teria #2: https://bit.ly/3r41Gu2(CNBC) Jamie Dimon says he wouldn’t touch Treasuries: https://cnb.cx/37t1mNMAct II: The Lie Unwinds: https://bit.ly/38g78l8----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, cootie-free. Artwork by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Chasing Visions" by Vano at Epidemic Sound.

Your podcaster has long been impressed by cinema that presents what is outside the human sensory process; art that conceives and presents what we literally cannot perceive. In 2001: A Space Odyssey, Stanley Kubrik shows us what transcendence is, by sending Keir Dullea through an astral rainbowfall. Christopher Nolan's Interstellar presents Matthew McConaughey in a tesseract, the three-dimensional shadow of four-dimensional space. In Annihilation, Alex Garland samples evolution, by introducing a sentient, prismatic cancer that refracts and reflects the DNA of its surroundings, including that of Natalie Portman.The audience is placed in an environment that doesn't reconcile with daily life and leaves them holding on to reality - at least as they understand it - by their fingernails. The eurodollar system is like that. Consider this legal wordfall from the Financial Stability Board: "regulatory arbitrage in the presence of non-harmonised re-hypothecation regimes." Or this two-dimensional shadow of extra-dimensional money by Jeff Snider: "Nobody buys securities; they borrow and claim to 'own' [them]... [then] the client will agree to allow the dealer to re-pledge... the very security the client is claiming to own... [T]he already re-pledged security... can be re-pledged again... In many if not most cases, there needn’t be the original client [desire] for this chain of re-pledging."If you want to know what it's like to travel through a wormhole for 18 hours in a hundredth of a second like Jodie Foster did in Robert Zemeckis' Contact then part one of Episode 39 is for you. Parts two and three aren't the worst things in the world either. Well, this world at least...----------SPONSOR----------But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! Friends, are you a central banker? Do you celebrate monetary accomplishments before they occur? Do you struggle in credibly promising to be irrational? Then the new Clench 5000 from Eurodollar Enterprises is for you! Yes, simply place this refashioned, stainless-steel mousetrap in your trousers or pencil skirt for your next press conference. Nary a hair will move on your head nor an eyebrow raise in confidence. Nary a smile will cross your face before the policy transmits successfully through the economy. Rest easy that your days of premature celebration are over with the knowledge that the Clench 5000 is hair-trigger sensitive. The Clench 5000! New! From Eurodollar Enterprises.----------WHY----------Part 01: To understand the 2008 crisis one must understand Lehman Brothers. But NOT Lehman Brothers, Inc. - the American subsidiary. No, the REAL STORY was Lehman Brothers International (Europe), the United Kingdom subsidiary. Part 02: Inflation Hysteria II is the latest blockbuster advertised in the financial media. Is the sequel better, or worse than the original (2017-18)? Let's ask the critics: TIPS, interest rate swaps, the yield curve and oil prices.Part 03: In the end, these polar opposites in consumer credit are saying something important about the state of the economy. The same thing. Jobs. ----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------A Nonsensical Jumble of Misused Words Requires Discussion: https://bit.ly/3oPaJ0d(I. Schnabel Speech) Shifting tides in euro area money markets: https://bit.ly/3oLBz9wInflation Hysteria #2 (TIPS, Swaps): https://bit.ly/3gE6SjHInflation Hysteria #2 (Nominal UST): https://bit.ly/37TV492Inflation Hysteria #2 (WTI): https://bit.ly/2W7GvcfPolar Opposite Sides of Consumer Credit End Up in the Same Place - Jobs: https://bit.ly/37RVlJuAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, quantum mechanic. Artwork by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Otherworld" by Lama House at Epidemic Sound.

Christine Lagarde, Janet Yellen and Stephanie Kelton are among the world's best known political-economists. Lagarde, was France's Minister of Finance, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, and is President of the European Central Bank - all firsts for a lady. Yellen, was America's Chair of the Federal Reserve and is presumptive nominee for US Secretary of the Treasury - each a first for a lady. Kelton, was advisor to the Bernie Sanders 2016 presidential campaign, is a best-selling author, and is the most famous evangelist for modern monetary theory.And now these remarkable three are in positions of power and influence to guide the world out of socioeconomic depression. It echoes the 1999 cover of Time Magazine featuring three men -- Robert Rubin, Alan Greenspan, and Larry Summers -- with the agitated headline "The Committee to Save the World". Alas, this 38th episode of Making Sense continues the long tradition of unease found in the Western canon regarding the female triumvirate.Yes, of course The Graces -- Aglaea, Euphrosyne, and Thalia -- were lovely… but there was the rumor about them spending so much time in the underworld. No need to comment on the Harpies - a triad of vengeful, winged sisters. And who can forget The Witches of Eastwick: Susan Sarandon, Michelle Pfeiffer and Cher? They put your podcaster off cherries for the rest of the 80s. But it is Shakespeare who provides us the incomparable trio: the Weird Sisters. Better understood today as 'weyward' or 'weyard', they were the Anglo-Saxon Fates responsible for divination and predictions - what we call "economics" in modern day. Don't take this podcaster's word for it - listen to the Bard:<<Macbeth, Act 4, Scene 1:>>Round about the cauldron go;In the poison'd policies throw.Media, that report narrativeDays and nights as quantitativeSweat inflation running hotBoil thou first i' th' charmed pot.Double, double toil and trouble;Fire burn, and cauldron bubble.Soul of financial journalistIn the cauldron boil and mist;UBI of newt and bank reserves,Wool of bat and control of curves,Adder's fork and Janet's QE,Lizard's leg and Kelton's MMT,For a charm of powerful trouble,Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.Zirp, nirp toil and trouble;Economy burn, and markets bubble.----------WHY----------PART 01: What is former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen all about? What can we expect from the US Treasury under her leadership? She didn't commit any MAJOR errors during her term. Was it competence, or happenstance?PART 02: Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, promises to employ trillions in euro carrots (large-scale asset purchase programs) and sticks (negative interest rates). Seems solid! But modern-day monetary policy, "is designed to... give an appearance of solidity to pure wind."PART 03: Is there any room for money in modern monetary theory? Stephanie Kelton, the best known evangelist for MMT says yes. Jeff Snider, says no. Indeed, Snider maintains that MMT is more likely to lead to deflation and disinflation than hyperinflation - just look to Japan for proof.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Meet the Same New Boss: https://bit.ly/39JxXAg(NY Times) Divining the Regulatory Goals of Fed Rivals: https://nyti.ms/33MtJnN(CBS News) Janet Yellen: The exit interview: https://cbsn.ws/3lHbeaB(The FT) Janet Yellen is the right woman for the times: https://on.ft.com/36FvMfeSaving Jobs Won’t Save Us From Jaws: https://bit.ly/3mUTGcc(OECD): Continued fiscal support and public health action needed to make hope of recovery a reality: https://bit.ly/36HsCYDThe Failure of the Printing Press Birthed MMT and the Printing Press: https://bit.ly/37wzozsKnapp's The State Theory of Money (1924 English translation): https://bit.ly/37z6IG0----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, tongue-tied by Rana Foroohar. Artwork by David "Banquo" Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "The Mole" by Christoffer Moe Ditlevsen at Epidemic Sound.

“The Case of the Missing Money” is not an Arthur Conan Doyle short-story but instead a 1976 essay by well-known economist Stephen Goldfeld who noticed that there wasn’t enough money to justify the high level of economic activity at that time. Goldfeld explained that money was traditionally a simple function of, “real gross national product, [and] the interest rates on savings and time deposits at commercial banks and on commercial paper.” But that formula was suddenly producing “whopping”, “unprecedented”, “quite unacceptable” and “conspicuous” errors that stood out “like a sore thumb”. The clue to the mystery -- which he was not able to solve at the time -- was that the formula for currency was on target BUT the one for checking accounts was unreliable. The monetary format under the auspices of public institutions -- cash and coin -- was fine. But the monetary format that was the domain of private banks -- deposit accounts -- was way short.But money WASN'T missing from the economy. Money as traditionally understood and defined by economists, THAT money was missing, but the market had broadened the definition in the 1960s and 70s by turning capital market securities into near-money, among many other evolutions. This suited the banks because, while they couldn’t print and mint official government money, they could ‘print and mint’ ledger ‘money’. Just under half a century later the roles are reversed. A modern-day Goldfeld would note that official monetary formats like bank reserves are being created at a “whopping”, “unprecedented”, “quite unacceptable” and “conspicuous” pace that stands out “like a sore thumb”. But because the vastly more valuable private bank ledger balances are way short, our global economy suffers for it. In this 37th Episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider writes and solves three mysteries: "Japan: The Case of the Missing Inflation!", "Europe: The Case of the Missing Economy!" and "Treasury Bills! The Case of the Missing Money?----------WHY----------Part 01: How might an economy fare if there was no corona? With neither covids nor gremlins throwing sand into the gears of economic machinery, would the engine be purring or sputtering? We turn to Japan for answers.Part 02: Europe's latest PMI scores tell us the continent is falling into re-recession, perhaps not unlike Japan. Where did the momentum disappear to? The USA has better PMIs but should that give us comfort?Part 03: All debt is equal, but some debt is more equal than others. Treasury market short-term bills hold a special place in the monetary hierarchy. Does recent selling of Bills signal economic hope? Or something else more mundane?----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------QQE To The Moon, *Deflation* Returns to Japan Anyway: https://bit.ly/3q0YK0KDeflation Returns To Japan, Part 2: https://bit.ly/33qhzARA Lesson In PMIs: Relative vs. Absolute: https://bit.ly/2HHWtpUTreasury Auctions Are Anything But Sorry Because They’ve Never Been Sorry About Solly: https://bit.ly/33rsLNLJust Who Is, And Who Is Not, Selling T-Bills: https://bit.ly/2Jgw7w6----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, Double-Dutch auctioneer. Artwork by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "The Great Ascension" by Christoffer Moe Ditlevsen at Epidemic Sound.

Part 01: What can the late-19th century Long Depression (1873-96) tell us about the early-21st century Silent Depression (2008-2?)? We turn to Henry George, the author of the most popular economics book of all time to learn what he got right, got wrong and how it applies to the present.Part 02: An estimated 742,000 Americans submitted initial claims for unemployment insurance in the week ending November 14. That is 'worst all-time' prior to the 2020 experience and is wholly inappropriate EIGHT MONTHS AFTER the shock. Part 03: Japanese banks are borrowing from US banks at healthy rates (reflation!). The Chinese currency is appreciating at a healthy pace (reflation!). But there are few quirks, odds, ends, bits and bobs that remain in the shadows of the eurodollar.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------The Economic Emergency In 2020 and Beyond Won't Be Covid: https://bit.ly/332eI0RProgress and Poverty by Henry George, fifth edition (1881): https://bit.ly/390ZjBHIt Will Have To Be Our New Weekly Ritual: https://bit.ly/39aL90KMaking Sense's Review of Economic Symmetry: https://youtu.be/yGOiHqVdE_MRedistributing A Shrinking Pie Is Nothing Like A Flood; Because There Was No Flood: https://bit.ly/338Bwfg----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, bond villain moonlighter. Artwork by David Parkins. Podcast outro is "Things to Do" by Ballpoint at Epidemic Sound.

PART 01: US Treasury yields have risen on positive news, especially following the CoVo Vax news from Pfizer. Does it mean reflation has begun? Does it mean the 40-year bond bull market is dead? What do other economic accounts say?PART 02: America's unemployment rate plummeted from 14.7% to 6.9% in six short months! But it's the same 2010-15 mirage. Even the Federal Reserve doesn't believe it - that's why they edited away the idea of "full employment" in August 2020.PART 03: Communists in Beijing have a better grasp of the world economy's direction than the capitalists in Washington, London and Brussels. Beijing's 14th Five-Year Plan hints at an isolated Chinese economy, an island unto itself.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Vaccine-phoria: https://bit.ly/3pnufSBNo Time For Pfizer, Europe Heads Back: https://bit.ly/38GnchVWhere Is It, Chairman Powell?: https://bit.ly/3eVWiDAGood Payrolls Still Say Slowdown: https://bit.ly/32GaxaESlowdown In The Rebound; Stop Listening To Central Bankers: https://bit.ly/3psbbT1QE Didn’t JOLT (again): https://bit.ly/2UswUfwXi Jinping Is Mao, Only For His Focus to Be On Technology: https://bit.ly/35ubOnfThe Prices And Costs Of What Xi Believes He’s Got To Do: https://bit.ly/32E1SWrMoving The Bird Back Into Its (Old) Cage: https://bit.ly/35tDkB4----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, the slightly poorer and unsuccessful - but handsomer eurodollar podcast version of Tom Brady. Artwork by the Lance Russell of the art ring David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Temple of Runha" by ELFL at Epidemic Sound.

A social contract is the agreement between government, business, wealthy and ordinary households in how to apportion the costs and benefits of society. The recently concluded (?) American election comes to mind, as a potential first step towards a new (green?) deal. In this, the 34th episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider identifies another, less obvious freshly fashioned contract: China and its recent 14th Five-Year plan. But as Snider explains, question marks are not unique to democratic republics -- communist 'republics' have them too.The most successful, contemporary social contract your podcaster is aware of are the early-2000s Hartz Reforms in Germany. Listeners may be surprised to learn that before them today's "economic engine of Europe" was the "sick man of Europe". The decade-long assimilation of East Germany had taken a heavy toll and unemployment levels would breach more than 10% -- in 2004! The new social contract ensured employment in return for low-wage growth that favored business. So, success doesn't mean cost-free. But we've always known that; remember the story of one of humanity's original contracts?As we learn in Exodus, Moses had to introduce The Commandments twice; the stone tablets were angrily shattered in the first attempt! And by the time the second draft was presented the scene was rather tense. Firstly, God was annoyed as all get-out to see Moses again -- what, he doesn't have anything else to do other than hew stone tablets? Secondly, Moses was ill-tempered that he couldn't leave the chosen people alone for a few days before they started chugging flagons like Frank the Tank. Lastly, the people, like the teenager unable to thread the needle in a way that explained bongs and brassieres strewn across the yard to her parents, were anxiously awaiting judgement. When Moses returned for the second time the apprehensive throng gathered before him. Moses announced, "I have good news and bad news. The good news is, I got him down to ten." And a great cheer of relief issued forth. "The bad news is... adultery stays." ----------WHY----------PART 01: Does Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, have a BETTER understanding of the global economy than capitalists? China's newest Five-Year Plan is sending the following signals: (A) Globalization is dead. (B) The world's monetary order has broken. (C) Bye. PART 02: Central bankers in Frankfurt and London are very active lately. They want, "to help the economy", "to boost lending" and give banks "confidence" all so as to achieve their inflation targets. So far? Bubkis. Would MMT be different?PART 03: The LIBOR price-fixing scandal was called "crime of the century". Central bankers saw the crime as an opportunity to shunt aside LIBOR - a global rate that shouldn't exist for a supply of dollars that shouldn't exist. But does.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------China’s 1st 15-year Xi-athon: https://bit.ly/3p4vo11E$U M.S. Ep. #17 - From Bond Yields to Communism, Don’t Call It A Comeback: https://bit.ly/32kijagWashington looms large over drafting of China’s next five-year plan: https://on.ft.com/2U0T1JFIn 2020, Central Bankers Everywhere Are Being Exposed: https://bit.ly/3k8DQZmCOT B-und?: https://bit.ly/38iQaUCThere Is A Hard Truth To This Soft SOFR Arrogance: https://bit.ly/38mPBJMIMF Global Markets Monitor (03-Nov-2020): https://bit.ly/2GD911j----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, social-media beast of burden. Artwork by David "Mr. Universe" Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "All Emotions" by ELFL at Epidemic Sound.

Broadcasting from the kingdom of NYE, I'm Art Bell and this is Coast to Coast AM from the great beyond. Tonight we'll talk to General Johnson Jameson from his bunker complex beneath the Saskatchewan crust, as to whether Y2K can still happen. Then... 'Do you want to believe?!' The government doesn't want you to. Chris Carter, creator of the X-Files, will tell us exactly which episodes the government didn't want you to see. Also, Rod Sterling will join me live in studio... well in a manner of speaking. Was the Twilight Zone a documentary that had to be presented to the public as fiction...?Our time on Earth is indeed, very short. No matter how old or young you are, you are a tiny slice of the cosmos' plan. You're here for a very, very short time. We all are. And the big question of course is, what happens after we end this physical life... or it is ended, however you have it. It's a big question. And October, of course, is a great time to explore that question because one of the main things you look for is some - any evidence of life beyond the physical. The supernatural, the apparition, the unexplained, the Kachina doll that seems to move around the house by itself...There's no place more spooky and unexplained than central banking and the monetary order. Let us then enter another dimension. A monetary realm. Let us turn to the wildcard line. Jeff, Emil... can you hear me? This is Art Bell. ----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------A True Horror Tale: https://bit.ly/2TGjGvbFOMC Meeting Minutes Transcript, June 27-28, 2000: https://bit.ly/3kKDysOInnovation in the International Financial Markets by G. Dufey and I. Giddy: https://bit.ly/2HDEpNDQuarrel With Quarles Over Too Little, Not Too Many: https://bit.ly/35MshlyThe Authority Fallacy, Or The Quarles Quandary: https://bit.ly/3mDro5HVice Chair for Supervision Randal K. Quarles Remarks at the Hoover Institution: https://bit.ly/2HSETQfThe Dollar Disease Well Predates the Coronavirus: https://bit.ly/3kLVaodBIS "US dollar funding - an international perspective": https://bit.ly/31Yurxi----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, redrum redrum REDRUM! Artwork by the modern day Gustave Doré, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Fugent" by Lupus Nocte at Epidemic Sound.

The bread of this podcast hotdog features Jeff Snider putting into context how far behind the times monetary authorities are, and that all may not be as it seems with the appreciating Chinese currency. But the middle, the wiener if you will, is about the unit root. But please! Before you throw your device across the room in disgust rather than listen to yet another podcast about monomial equations and non-stationary processes realize that it's all about econometricians assuming economies do not suffer permanent shocks. The assumption that an economy must experience a recession AND a recovery.A 1993 paper by Milton Friedman averred the data showed this is how economies operated, and indeed they did -- in the post-WW2 experience. Friedman referenced an earlier work of his, from 1964, with data that stretched over a longer period that ALSO showed this. And indeed, the 1879 to 1961 period does, as long as you exclude the war cycles and 1945 to 1949 because, as Friedman put it "of their special characteristics." So, if your podcaster understands this correctly, if you exclude permanent shocks and data discontinuity then one is welcome to assume no permanent shocks.Now, your podcaster is admittedly missing something here. For one, he's missing econometricians' razor-sharp intelligence. Second, he hasn't won a Nobel in economics - not yet at least. The cost of this lacuna is that shoelaces give him trouble - all his trainers and loafers have Velcro. Simultaneous gum chewing and walking results in emergency trips to the dentist. And hot dogs are eaten with the bun in one hand and dog in the other. But the benefit of not having a towering intelligence is not falling prey to hubris. In believing intricate mathematics model out permanent shocks. In believing that it can go back to the way it was. The year 2008 was a permanent break. Like 1914. Like 1929. Like 1945. ----------WHY----------PART 01: How many years behind are regulators, from the leading edge of money? Consider, seven years AFTER the crisis, Europe introduced legislation (2014) to track securities lending. Not until 2020 did data collection begin. Besides, this, and other, money activity was brought to our attention in 1981!PART 02: The world is complex. Too complex to model. Assumptions must be made. Is the exclusion of permanent shocks to the economy a reasonable one? Rational? Plausible? Yet econometricians -- with their hands on the wheel -- say it is. That iceberg dead ahead? Not in the model.PART 03: The Chinese currency is gaining against the dollar. That SHOULD be an 'all-clear' signal that reflation, global trade, and positive momentum are in place. But we DO NOT see corroborating evidence on the People's Bank of China balance sheet. Maybe the move is an engineered feint?----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Central Banks Trying to Create Inflation Is An Old Laugh Line: https://bit.ly/35uS5CrInnovation in the International Financial Markets by G. Dufey and I. Giddy: https://bit.ly/2HDEpNDThe Unit Root of the Missing Monetary Monomial: https://bit.ly/37zvVBVMilton Friedman's 1964 The Monetary Studies of the National Bureau: https://bit.ly/3dQquQ2Milton Friedman's 1993 "The Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations Revisited": https://bit.ly/3dQ1OY3CNY + TIC = October 2020, or 2017?: https://bit.ly/2FTp2Qk----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, an innuendo. Artwork by the unit root, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Siren Screen" by Ooyy at Epidemic Sound.