Eurodollar University

Full Disclosure: Jeff has worked with Mr. Saxe as a trustee for a stablecoin project Ryne is the COO for. The mainstream image of cryptocurrencies is cowboys and charlatans playing around with technology that doesn't seem to have any practical use. Kids are getting rich - many going broke - on what can appear to be trivial functions. Reality couldn't be farther from the truth. As Ryne points out, one key problem is that those who are indeed making a good-faith effort at making something and making it work are losing at the narrative. Worse, the government is no help (no surprise). Even so, there is tremendous progress being made right now in turning these digital projects into useful, usable money. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China's 10-year government bond yield just reached a 20-year low. UST yields are moving down again. What does it all mean; more importantly why do we need to care? It isn't just the signal bond curves provide, it is just as much the lack of direct access to the information we truly need. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Transcript February 1999https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19990203meeting.pdfBIS CGFS Papers No 65 US dollar funding: an international perspectivehttps://www.bis.org/publ/cgfs65.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Evidence continues to show we're in half a recession already. There is a huge discrepancy between the "strong" US employment in the media and what's actually happening. Even mainstream sources are being forced to deal with how different the jobs market is to those actually experiencing it. These aren't isolated cases or stories, the data backing them up continues to pile up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Economists say the labor market is strong — but job seekers don’t share that confidence. Here’s whyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/02/why-it-feels-so-hard-to-get-a-job-right-now.htmlInsight Global https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/unemployed-and-unmotivated-new-survey-finds-that-over-half-of-unemployed-americans-are-feeling-the-job-hunt-burnout-big-time-301909524.htmlReddit r/jobshttps://www.reddit.com/r/jobs/comments/16aetk9/the_job_market_is_awful_2023/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Gold is high but not on Waller. Fed Governor Chris Waller seems to have sparked the most recent jump in the metal, with people jumping all over their inference of some incoming Reverse Operation Twist. Untangling the fedspeak from so many huge misconceptions about gold - it is a TERRIBLE inflation hedge, as you'll see - in order to make sense of another legit red flag. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRB Christopher Waller Thoughts on Quantitative Tightening, Including Remarks on the Paper "Quantitative Tightening around the Globe: What Have We Learned?"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240301a.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It's bad enough that China's shakiest real estate firms are going to be creating big losses and not just for other Chinese financials. Now comes word the last remaining investment grade developer is rumored to be experiencing liquidity trouble, too. It is a sign of further progress - in the wrong direction. We need to understand what it means when Beijing is this impotent.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Digital technology is revolutionizing every aspect of our lives, now including money. The first in a three-part series as Jeff travels to ETH Denver, the world's preeminent Ethereum conference, to start digging in to digital with those who are actually doing it, the insiders. Up first, world-renowned scholar, investor and, yes, philosopher-historian Manny Rincon Cruz.Eurodollar University's conversations w/Manny Rincon Cruz

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisAP US national debt hits record $34 trillion as Congress gears up for funding fighthttps://apnews.com/article/national-debt-deficits-biden-economy-inflation-record-b4258704f830c7f6e9c5e693748216cbMilton Friedman Newsweek “Deficits and Inflation"https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/214251/fullhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Unlike most terms thrown around Economics, 'globally synchronized' is no joke. It also isn't a recent development. Throughout modern history, when a sizable portion of the world starts to show contraction it will spread throughout the rest with very few spared. It is a poignant reminder given how the same is happening right now. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBoJ New Procedures for Money Market Operations and Monetary Easing Mar 19, 2001https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2001/k010319a.htmSpeech given by Kazuo Ueda, Member of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, at Council on Foreign Relations in New York, May 11, 2001 https://www2.boj.or.jp/archive/en/announcements/press/koen_2001/ko0105a.htmSpeech by Dr. Willem F. Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, at Central Bankers' Panel at the International Monetary Conference, Singapore, 4 June 2001https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2001/html/sp010604.en.htmlFOMC Transcript November 1979https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19791120meeting.pdfSilent Revolution: The International Monetary Fund, 1979–89,https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/silent/index.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To get the rest of the Lyn Alden, George Gammon conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here:https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Japan is in recession, one that is getting worse. Japanese officials tell you not to believe your lying eyes, inflation is the greatest risk. All the data conclusively shows it is not, that Japan's contraction is a product of global forces that just so happen to be taking care of Japanese "inflation" risks, too. That's NOT a good sign. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To get the rest of the Lyn Alden, George Gammon conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here:https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1How accurate are market tools like spreads? If you're looking for absolute precision, you're in the wrong business. These measures are highly useful for broad purposes. Unfortunately, history shows those point in the direction of serious general economic misadventures. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To get the rest of this conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here:https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Eurodollar University's conversations, Guests Lyn Alden & George Gammonhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#lynalden

The Federal Reserve "prints" bank reserves, that's it. To understand why that matters, you have to understand where bank reserves came from and what they were and are intended for. It isn't at all what you think. But don't take my word for it; that comes straight from the Fed itself. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRB Atlanta The Evolution of the Check as a Means of Payment: A Historical Survey, November 2008https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/economic-review/2008/vol93no4_quinn_roberds.pdfFRB Banking and Monetary Statistics 1914-41https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/bms/1914-1941/BMS14-41_complete.pdfFOMC Transcript July 1981https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19810707meeting.pdfFOMC Transcript October 1979https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19791006meeting.pdfFOMC Transcript March 1991https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below.https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4The FOMC's minutes for its January meeting shed light on the dilemma currently hitting policymakers. They're seeming embrace of the lower rates from last bond rally was no fluke. They instead share our growing and NOTABLE concerns over possible substantial fallout from CRE. However, they also can't help themselves whenever Phillips drops by. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Minutes January 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20240131.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another rash of layoffs is sweeping the US economy and its labor market. Only this time, unlike last year, the background behind them is far more concerning and even dangerous (economically, speaking). Those threatened by being thrown out of work know the score isn't entirely made up from those job cuts. It's actually the grim reality of no hiring. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Worries grow over a K-shaped economic recovery that favors the wealthyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/worries-grow-over-a-k-shaped-economic-recovery-that-favors-the-wealthy.htmlBloomberg How Companies Say ‘Layoffs’ Without Saying ‘Layoffs’https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/corporate-layoffs-all-the-ways-companies-say-someone-is-unemployedCNBC As companies lay off even more workers, they could be making a big mistake in the way they’re doing ithttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/20/as-companies-lay-off-even-more-workers-they-could-be-making-a-mistake.htmlChallenger, Gray & Christmashttps://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-announced-by-us-based-companies-surge-136-to-82307-to-begin-2024-financial-tech-lead/Bloomberg Job Cuts Are Sending a Chill Through the Remote Work Worldhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-21/layoffs-make-remote-workers-reconsider-work-from-home-jobs?srnd=economics-v2Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference November 1, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20231101.pdfCanadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2023https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/10/canadian-survey-of-consumer-expectations-third-quarter-of-2023/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below.https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4Chinese "banks" opted for an unusually large cut to China's benchmark 5-year Loan Prime Rate. In truth, that appears at the behest of Beijing where authorities are becoming increasingly desperate. Nothing they are doing is working - and Chinese banks know it. China has a growing bank problem on its hands before any of its other major problems.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg China’s Bold Mortgage Rate Cut Met With Lukewarm Reactionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/chinese-banks-cut-mortgage-reference-rate-by-most-on-recordCNBC China boosts property funding with first cut in key loan rate since Junehttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/china-cuts-benchmark-5-year-lending-rate-for-the-first-time-since-june.htmlMonetary policy shocks and the signaling channel of monetary policy in Chinahttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666933123000047?ref=pdf_download&fr=RR-2&rr=85898a601dfcdb01Bloomberg China’s Property Crisis Is Starting to Ripple Across the Worldhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/china-s-real-estate-crisis-is-starting-to-ripple-across-the-worldhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below.https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/EurodollarwebinarAs more countries around the world "unexpectedly" succumb to recession, the consequences aren't strictly economic. While globally synchronized means many more will follow, the costs need to be accounted for in human terms. Why does it feel like half the planet is on the move? It's the economy, stupid. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSkynews 8,000 migrants travel to southern border as election loomshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKgRbVGO2XUAutumn 2022 Economic Forecast: The EU economy at a turning pointhttps://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts/autumn-2022-economic-forecast-eu-economy-turning-point_enEC Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast: A modest recovery ahead after a challenging yearhttps://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_5743Winter 2024 Economic Forecast: A delayed rebound in growth amid faster easing of inflationhttps://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_730Fitch Ratingshttps://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/world-growth-to-fall-sharply-in-2024-us-recession-avoided-08-12-2023Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report Oct 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20231020.pdfWorld Bank Global Economic Prospects June 2023 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/6e892b75-2594-4901-a036-46d0dec1e753/contentTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university

There are just a few more spaces left to sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityIt's a recession rash. Economic growth expectations slashed, "unexpectedly", of course. Technical recessions spreading around the world's major economies because real ones are. Yet, still the idea of a US decoupling persists resting largely on a few past-tense stats and, most of all, equity investors. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityThere are a lot of parallels now and the 1970s - and inflation isn't actually one of them. The whole world saw recession coming in 1979, even that vast majority of those on the FOMC. Except, there was no recession in '79. It's what leads up to contraction that matters, not when it finally gets noticed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityThis is getting out of hand. Not only is it a major risk and not just to those "invested" in equities, there are several deeply troubling reasons to care why several major economy stock indexes are setting new highs while the economies allegedly tied to them suffer substantial now-recognized recessions. This isn't going to end well. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisInvesting.com Japan’s Nikkei 225 near record high as Q4 recession dents BOJ pivot betshttps://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/japans-nikkei-225-near-record-high-as-q4-recession-dents-boj-pivot-bets-3304175Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityStocks keep hitting new highs yet one of those markets which is doing just that also proves that it can't be because of the economy. This one leaves little doubt especially as so many other markets pile on with their views (not even talking bonds here). Stocks are buying a 'liquidity' story, not actual real world fundamentals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisMagnificent 7 Concentrationhttps://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644CNN Germany’s stock market just hit a new record high despite a faltering economy. What gives?https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/06/investing/german-stock-market-dax-record-high/index.htmlInvestopedia DAXhttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dax.aspBloombergNEF Copper Prices May Jump 20% by 2027 as Supply Deficit Riseshttps://about.bnef.com/blog/copper-prices-may-jump-20-by-2027-as-supply-deficit-rises/ING Aluminium surplus to persist as demand disappointshttps://think.ing.com/articles/aluminium-surplus-to-persist-as-demand-disappoints/Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityNo one remembers the "red hot" and "sticky" supply shock of 2010 and 2011 BECAUSE it was, yes, transitory. The Fed didn't need to raise rates or do anything. In fact, the FOMC was busy with more "accommodating" policies like Operation Twist and then two more QEs, yet consumer prices disinflate-d anyway. Outside of one artificial piece of the CPI, the January 2024 version was in every other way just like back then.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNNMoney Consumer prices up 2.1% in past yearhttps://money.cnn.com/2011/03/17/news/economy/cpi_inflation/index.htmBoston Fed Eric Rosengren A Look Inside a Key Economic Debate: How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Price Increases Driven by Supply Shocks?https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/speeches/a-look-inside-a-key-economic-debate-how-should-monetary-policy-respond-to-price-increases-driven-by-supply-shocks.aspxFOMC Transcript September 2011https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20110921meeting.pdfDecember 2011 Tealbookhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20111213tealbooka20111207.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityChina's yuan has been constantly put forward as a contender to 'dethrone' the dollar. Whatever sliver of a tiny chance it may have had before, it's zero now. The greater challenge is how to replace the existing reserve regime which does need an update. But that means eurodollar NOT dollar. This is not a trivial distinction; it is, in fact, everything. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRBNY Monthly Review November 1960https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/frbnyreview/rev_frbny_196011.pdf?utm_source=direct_downloadBIS Quarterly Review June 2012https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1206f.pdfBloomberg A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on Chinahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/a-99-bond-wipeout-hands-hedge-funds-a-harsh-lesson-on-chinaTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To get the rest of the conversation, become a Eurodollar University member and/or DDA subscriber. We've got unadvertised sales available that will allow you access to all the EDU content, including the the full hour-plus with Ken here:https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Eurodollar University's conversations w/Ken McElroyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityThe more they tell us how great everything is, the more you know it isn't. Americans like their compatriots from around the world know something isn't right. We've seen this kind of divergence from "elite" opinion, descriptions, even mainstream labor data before. Long and silent depression. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityYou might be amazed at just how much Chinese authorities have tried to stabilize their system. If you knew, you'd understand why so much of Beijing is verging on panic-mode. The huge response has come up empty which is a clear signal for how much trouble there really is. For his part, Xi Jinping purged another official unsurprisingly related to financial markets (stocks). Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Xi’s Markets Shakeup Surprised Insiders, Showing Alarm Over Routhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/xi-s-markets-shakeup-surprised-insiders-showing-alarm-over-routChina's Securities Regulatorhttp://www.csrc.gov.cn/csrc_en/c102030/common_list.shtml?channelid=84bedf81e76a4c20b9f43a7c7190519bTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityWhat's behind the renewed banking woes? Sure, we know it almost certainly has to do with commercial real estate, but we need to get a sense of how much trouble that might lead to. Digging into what information we have available, let's put some hard numbers on the CRE bubble while we go over the latest developments among the US regionals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFinancial Accounts of the United States (Z1)https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Greenstreet Commercial Property Price Indexhttps://www.greenstreet.com/insights/CPPIBrookline Bancorp Q4 2023 resultshttps://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/01/24/2816078/0/en/Brookline-Bancorp-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-Results.htmlBankUnited Inc Q4 2023 resultshttps://ir.bankunited.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bankunited-inc-reports-2023-resultsTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To sign up for our free February 19 webinar, follow the links at our homepage here:https://www.eurodollar.universityAccording to these historically validated datapoints, the worst is straight ahead for the US in 2024. In just two charts, we can place together three critical pieces of macroeconomic information which provides a useful guide for determining cyclical circumstances in the US economy. Bank lending, commercial borrowing and, most important, commercial employing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFederal Reserve SLOOShttps://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos.htmTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After an "unexpected" late 2023 plunge, oil prices rebounded and the WTI curve even managed to flip from contango to backwardation. Rather than point to a firming global situation, the latest move in the crude market instead proves it was just Red Sea shipping fears. A shocking collapse in German trade reminds us of what oil's fundamentals really are.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIEA Monthly Oil Report December 2023https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-december-2023IEA Monthly Oil Report January 2024https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-january-2024ECB Combined Policy Decision and Statement January 2024https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/shared/pdf/ecb.ds240125~d65b43331a.en.pdf?18350e063857b7aa27302e03a8f721d5https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/EurodollarwebinarIt's not just the payroll data that is conflicted with itself, there are a number of other mainstream sources where the economic situation depicted by them could not be more different. Stepping back and looking at it all, we end up finding more lining up one way than the other. As Jay Powell prepares to take a victory lap, if he hasn't already he may want to temper his enthusiasm.Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/EurodollarwebinarThis is getting ridiculous. We've become used to seeing Est. Survey vs. HH Survey in US labor data, but now it's Est. Survey vs. Est. Survey. The headline payroll number shows one thing, then the rest of the same data says the exact opposite. What in the hell is going on in the jobs report?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you're looking for a guide on collateral and how to spot shortfalls in it, get your copy of EDU's report on collateral shortages here:https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateralThis isn't about a relatively small New York community bank no one had heard of until yesterday. The markets reactions to it were far more important than the details of that bank's announcement. There is not a whole lot of faith in banking, and it may be the ball is rolling once again on that front. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNYCB Acquires Signature Assetshttps://ir.mynycb.com/news-and-events/news-releases/press-release-details/2023/NEW-YORK-COMMUNITY-BANCORP-INC.-THROUGH-ITS-BANK-SUBSIDIARY-FLAGSTAR-BANK-N.A.-ACQUIRES-CERTAIN-ASSETS-AND-ASSUMES-CERTAIN-LIABILITIES-OF-SIGNATURE-BRIDGE-BANK-FROM-THE-FDIC/default.aspxNYCB reports results for 2023https://ir.mynycb.com/news-and-events/news-releases/press-release-details/2024/NEW-YORK-COMMUNITY-BANCORP-INC.-REPORTS-RECORD-RESULTS-FOR-2023/default.aspxBloomberg Markets NY Community Bancorp Plunges as Real Estate Risks Jolt Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/new-york-community-bancorp-slumps-on-surprise-loss-dividend-cut?fromMostRead=trueFOMC Statement January 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20240131a1.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/EurodollarwebinarSuggest topics or someone to join Jeff on Presidents Day in the comments.Wild day in bonds has the market doing something highly unusual. There "shouldn't" be a rally in LT rates so soon after the last big one. Global markets are strong anyway which could be a warning about a couple things, from the monetary to the economy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Full interview with Brent Johnson on Eurodollar Dominancehttps://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollarYou won't believe how much debt our broke government issued last year. MULTIPLE trillions. At the same time, the Federal Reserve did three-quarters of a trillion USTs roll off its balance sheet (QT). Rather than destroy the Treasury market or bonds in general, quite the opposite has happened. You NEED to ask yourself WHY. There is no soft landing here.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTBAC Most Recent Quarterly Refundinghttps://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/quarterly-refunding/most-recent-quarterly-refunding-documentsTBAC Treasury Borrowing Estimates for Q1 2024https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2054https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

New York Fed's Empire PMI kicked off the January data cycle by plunging. In the meantime, the rest of the regional data filled in the picture for the month and the final one of the group ended up more like the first one than not. We shouldn't underestimate the usefulness of these surveys especially since there are numerous signs, however long it might end up being, this is still a cycle. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTexas Manufacturing Outlook Surveyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2024/2401#tab-reporthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To see the rest of Jeff's conversation with Hugh, become an EDU member or DDA subscriber. There is so much more available for EDU members and subscribers, starting with loads of background material, video series like the Basics, multi-part presentations, Q&A vids, Classroom pieces that go over the crucial parts of money and the eurodollar system. Subscribers to EDU's Deep Dive Analysis (DDA) get daily deep dives into current events, what's really happening and what they mean. We are having an "unadvertised" sales so you can take advantage of our best offer packaging the DDA and a membership together while also including our Daily Briefing, too. All the details here:https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Eurodollar University's Guest Conversations: Hugh Hendryhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Fed keeps having to screw around with what should be its primary job. The Fed is now trying to go back to the past with its Discount Window, hoping to fix it so the program might work this time. Officials are in a bind being forced to unwind the BTFP after unintentionally granting too generous terms. What are they missing? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For those in the Soft Landing USA camp, there was everything in today's Q4 2023 GDP report. Growth rate, consumers, an even more solid dose of disinflation. Near perfect Goldilocks. So why wasn't it taken that way in the market? Some answers from Europe. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Lagarde Says It’s Likely ECB Will Cut Rates in Summerhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/davos-2024-lagarde-says-agressive-rate-cut-bets-don-t-help-ecbECB Monetary Policy Statementhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2024/html/ecb.is240125~db0f145c32.en.htmlBloomberg Lagarde’s Talk of Summer ECB Cut Sees Traders Bet on Aprilhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-25/ecb-s-lagarde-stands-by-comments-on-likely-summer-rate-cuthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Unnerved by recent developments in financial markets and its economy, Chinese authorities unveiled a rash of new measures. To understand the degree of danger, we examine the proposals before keying on critical signals like repo and interbank conditions. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisPBOC statementhttp://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/5218615/index.htmlBloomberg China Weighs Stock Market Rescue Package Backed by $278 Billionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-23/china-mulls-stock-market-rescue-package-backed-by-278-billion?fromMostRead=truehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Beside the S&P 500, Japan's Nikkei 225 has been basking in the global spotlight. Surging to its highest in decades and not all that far anymore from its own all-time mark, it might seem Japanese equity investors are expressing loads of confidence from the Asian perspective. Just like US indices, however, there are a number of reasons to look at the Nikkei with caution - starting with China and then going from there. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

First part of Mike Green conversation, including the retirement bombshell from IBM:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jfIDNqVnZoThe rest of it is available for EDU members and DDA subscribers. If you aren't one, you can become one here:https://www.eurodollar.university/memberssubscriptionsThe S&P 500 hit another record high. That's proof the US is on track to achieve its Goldilocks scenario, soft landing and disinflation combined. Or is it? What do stock indexes really tell us? Sifting through the averages they instead picture a different set of conditions (assist from Mike Green). The vast majority of US shares look far more Chinese than Magnificent 7.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

You often hear someone in the media say the bond market is currently pricing for five or six Fed rate cuts. That's not actually what's being priced. This is not a subtle difference or a few degrees of interpretation. This is night and day with stocks potentially getting caught in between. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

EDU's report on Collateral Shortageshttps://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateralWhat was last year's banking crisis really about? Deposit flight was only the first part of it. In a bombshell report prepared by a working group of the G30, it admits the biggest challenge for banks and central banks alike was...collateral. What the group recommends authorities do about it is...insane. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisG30 BANK FAILURES AND CONTAGION LENDER OF LAST RESORT, LIQUIDITY, AND RISK MANAGEMENThttps://group30.org/images/uploads/publications/G30_Lessons-23-Crisis_RPT_Final.pdfBPI Comment on the New G30 Reporthttps://bpi.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Comment-on-the-new-G30-report.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

More data from the Chinese economy and real estate market which further confirms the dire situation China is facing. Xi Jinping is facing that situation by tightening his grip even further, waging a stepped-up war against corruption even though Xi declared corruption had been defeated five years ago. This isn't about corruption; the more the Chinese gov't does, including purges, the worst it is getting. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSCMP ‘No one is safe’: China purges record number of senior officials in 2023, with more ‘tigers’ likely to fallhttps://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3247040/no-one-safe-china-purges-record-number-senior-officials-2023-more-tigers-likely-fallBloomberg China’s Defense Purge Strikes at Heart of Xi’s Military Reformshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-04/china-s-defense-purge-strikes-at-heart-of-xi-s-military-reformsAsia Times Water in Chinese missiles’ tanks is a fake storyhttps://asiatimes.com/2024/01/water-in-chinese-missiles-tanks-is-a-fake-story/VOA Dreary Economic Data Suggests Struggles Ahead for Chinahttps://www.voanews.com/a/dreary-economic-data-suggests-struggles-ahead-for-china/7444827.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #china #xijinping #taiwan

Ho ho wut? Data looks awful one day but fine the next. Yesterday's Empire Fed plunged, yet today the gov't reports retail sales numbers that look fine. Was Christmas a bust, or was it strong like everyone now says? Reconciling these numbers - including production - isn't really difficult starting with "strong" context. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot

The Empire Fed's manufacturing PMI absolutely plummeted in January 2024. While it may be just one region for one month, these numbers are some of the worst on record and convincingly add to the growing list of evidence that the US economy is heading into the non-linear part of the recession process. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Germany Narrowly Escapes Recession But Outlook Remains Toughhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-15/germany-s-economy-shrank-last-year-for-first-time-since-pandemicNYT Recession: Some Criteria Missing, So Far (1974)https://www.nytimes.com/1974/08/28/archives/recession-some-criteria-missing-so-far-there-will-be-no-recession.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To watch the full interview you can access it with our deep dive or membership site https://www.eurodollar.universityThis conversation wasn’t just an inside account of LTCM and a recall of history at of those famous crossroads, Jim Rickards and Jeff ruminate over the implications from the affair which are still reverberating through time right up to this day. The struggles to contain the fallout from the debacle are every bit as relevant now as it was shocking way back then. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

Jim Rickards Interview (1st Part)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NA4JH9S39wgFor memberships and subscriptions, there's a "secret" sale going on here:https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Chinese leadership ended 2023 on several ominous notes. Economic and importantly financial data continues to defy expectations for a turnaround adding more evidence to the perilous situation. At the same time, the government is making more extreme political action, purging more top officials under the guise of "reform" when it is more likely the former is really driving the latter. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Intelligence Shows Flawed China Missiles Led Xi to Purge Armyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/us-intelligence-shows-flawed-china-missiles-led-xi-jinping-to-purge-militaryXi Jinping's July Military meetinghttp://www.81.cn/yw_208727/16238925.htmlAxios China's military purge deepenshttps://www.axios.com/2023/12/31/xi-jinping-china-military-corruption-purgehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot

EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks LikeLink Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateralA big move in short-term rates especially the critical 2-year UST has yield curves closing in on un-inversion. That is a critical threshold and unlike a few months ago it is unfolding in the "bull" direction. It is very important to understand what is happening and why it really matters. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot

Consumer prices accelerated in December, so that means the term "transitory disinflation" will be out in full force for the third time in a year. The risk of actual inflation, however, remains incredibly low to non-existent regardless of what that term implies. And that's easily established by the growing mountain of evidence and a host of clear historical parallels. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBLS CPI Press Release Jan 11, 2024https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #cpi