Eurodollar University

EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks LikeLink Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateralSo, there were a whole lot of repo fails at the end of December. What does that mean? What are repo fails? They are often fickle and fleeting, but they can tell us something very important about just what we want to know where it comes to the beating heart of the global monetary system. Decoding fails is actually pretty easy with a little bit of knowledge and history. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIOSCOhttps://www.iosco.org/about/?subsection=about_ioscoIOSCO Securities Lending Transactionshttps://www.iosco.org/library/pubdocs/pdf/IOSCOPD96.pdfFRBNY Guide to FR2004 Settlement Fails Datahttps://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pridealers_failsprimer.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #collateral #repo

The recent bond rally - which may not be over - was one for the books. The 10-year US Treasury dropped nearly 120 bps off its yield in only 47 trading days. A move that big and that fast for the 10s had only happened six other times over the last three decades. We'll go over what that means and what it can tell us about where we go from here; bonds and everything else. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment

EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks LikeLink Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateralWhile everyone was looking into year-end SOFR, real money stuff went haywire. Repo fails absolutely surged and swap spreads collapsed more than they had already. Dealers are hoarding Treasuries at the same time where banks are hitting up the Fed's BTFP. What do all of these and others mean, including the BTFP? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIOSCO/CPSS Securities Lending Reporthttps://www.bis.org/press/p990712.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Friday delivered labor market body blows to the soft landing's chances. Friday was filled with labor market data that isn't leaving us any gray area. The evidence continues to stack up and in more convincing fashion the US economy bonds were right. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment

Full interview with Mr. Milkshake, Brent Johnson, on eurodollar (not dollar) dominance:https://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollarWhile many cheered another payroll number, in reality the labor data were a complete trainwreck. The Household Survey's measure of employment plunged and full-time jobs crashed by an almost record amount during December. What's the meaning behind this bevy of increasingly grim numbers?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment

Payrolls are positive. The unemployment rate is incredibly low. Stocks are soaring. What recession? Furthermore, we've been talking about one for so long it is more than understandable why people have tuned it out. But how could we know the recession call is wrong? It isn't just the continued lack of layoffs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment

The level of hiring in the US has collapsed in a way we haven't seen since 2008 and 2009 (outside the pandemic lockdowns). JOLTS survey results show the largest 6-month decline in hiring of any same-sized period over the entire 21st century (ex. '20). The labor market is more than halfway into recession; but what about that other half?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment

China's 'president' Xi Jinping made a startling admission in his New Year address. For the first time he said the economy struggled last year. The confession merely underscores the difficulties the country is currently facing and has so far been unable to surmount. But why? As more data pours in, we see how the answer to that question isn't actually Chinese. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFull text of President Xi Jinping's 2024 New Year messagehttps://english.news.cn/20231231/4e0fc2697d994cd2b4dcb5dca525a611/c.htmlNikkei Analysis: China's spy agency now watches for doomsayershttps://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Analysis-China-s-spy-agency-now-watches-for-doomsayersCNN China’s economy had a miserable year. 2024 might be even worsehttps://www.cnn.com/2023/12/27/economy/china-economy-challenges-2024-intl-hnk/index.htmlBloomberg China Home Sales Fall Again as Policy Shifts Fail to Stem Declinehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-31/china-home-sales-fall-again-as-policy-shifts-fail-to-stem-declineTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#inflation #deflation #money #recession #federalreserve #fomc #interestrates #china #banks #xijinping

For quite a while there, you couldn't go long without hearing about how the 2020s were about to repeat the 1970s. That was never any real risk, but why? What is inflation? Where does it actually come from (spoiler: not the Fed)? Most important of all, how can we tell? The answer to all those questions are painfully clear, but once more Economics has the public thinking only backwards.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#1940s #1970s #inflation #deflation #money #recession #federalreserve #fomc #interestrates

Last Chance for Christmas Sale https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1What's the difference between financial and monetary crisis? Everything. Whether anyone knows it or not, we continue to live in the long shadows of 2008. They are deflationary more than anything, too, a Silent Depression that so long as we remain stuck in it will make the 2020s into something more like the 2010s. That's not good. Getting out starts with finally a proper accounting of 15 years ago. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBen Bernanke Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, Marcy 28, 2007https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20070328a.htmFCIC Final Reporthttps://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-FCIC/pdf/GPO-FCIC.pdfNew Yorker Anatomy of a Meltdownhttps://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2008/12/01/anatomy-of-a-meltdownSt Louis Fed (2009) The Financial Crisis and U.S. Cross-Border Financial Flowshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2009/articles/crossborder/default.htmTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#gfc2022 #gfc2023 #2008 #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot

Bond yields have plunged and not just US Treasuries. Yet, stocks are sitting at or above all-time highs. In fact, the two seem to be related at least in the short run. The bond rally began in late October and the stock surge followed a week later. But what bonds are suggesting wouldn't be good for stocks. So, what are stocks really doing?Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

Only a few days left for EDU's Christmas Sale, memberships, and research subscriptions. https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1What happens when the Fed really pivots and starts cutting rates? We know what's supposed to happen, though it never does. Before we get into the history of rate cut programs, we first have to understand why "monetary" policy targets interest rates in the first place. Once we do that it's easy to see why rate cuts are all hype. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC December 1974https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcmod19741217.pdfFOMC July 1981https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19810707meeting.pdfFOMC June 2000https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20000628meeting.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot

Does any of this stuff matter? If you stand back and look at this year, all of these weird financial indications may not have appeared to make any difference. The US economy, in particular, seems just fine if not better than fine. They haven't been any more bank failures. Yet, bond yields are crashing here, which is not something to ignore. What we're doing with Euro$ data is trying to assess the health of the monetary system to see if there might indeed be "something" there. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #repo #dollarshortage

Still time left for EDU's Christmas Sale, memberships and research subscriptions. https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1In a very important and very real sense, the Fed has already pivoted by embracing the recent and sharp decline in market interest rates. Why? In a word, insurance. Along with other crucial concerns, officials are no longer so sure the soft landing is on track. Since central bankers and Economists believe lower rates are "accommodative", they believe a pivot could help cushion being wrong about the economy.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates

The conversation with Brent Johnson on eurodollar dominancehttps://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollarChristmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1When the dollar goes up it is one of the simplest yet most critical warning signs in all finance. Most people are told it is because of the Fed and its rate policies. The last couple years have made it appear like that's actually the case. Instead, the evidence conclusively shows the real culprit behind the dollar's movements is...eurodollar. You don't have to take my word for it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBIS WP 592 The dollar, bank leverage and the deviation from covered interest parity https://www.bis.org/publ/work592.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral

Christmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Whether they want to admit it now or not, Jay Powell completely changed his tune in a matter of less than two weeks. What's more, another major central bank seems to have done the same thing and during the same two week timeframe. What the hell is going on changing all these hawks not to doves but increasingly chickens? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC The Bank of Japan just shocked markets with a policy tweak — here’s why it mattershttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/28/bank-of-japan-loosens-ycc-cites-greater-flexibility-and-jolts-markets.htmlBloomberg Traders Pile Into Bets That End of Negative BOJ Rate Is Nearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-07/boj-rate-hike-bets-ramp-up-as-ueda-and-himino-spook-tradersBloomberg BOJ Deputy Chief Hints That Negative Rate End May Be Closerhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-06/boj-s-deputy-chief-hints-that-end-of-negative-rate-may-be-closerCNBC Bank of Japan sticks to ultra-easy policy amid ‘extremely high’ uncertainties; yen tumbleshttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/19/boj-bank-of-japan-sticks-to-ultra-easy-monetary-policy-in-light-of-high-uncertainties.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral

Christmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1There are several reasons why suddenly the Fed has apparently accepted market rates going sharply lower. The soft landing scenario might be in greater jeopardy than recent data indicates - or it might more likely come from outside the US. Our focus here, however, is on the financial. What if conditions in the CRE market we all know is going to be a huge problem have started to come to a head? If so, that would get the FOMC's attention. There is evidence for this, too. Maybe more than you'd think. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisGreen Street CREhttps://www.greenstreet.com/insights/CPPIFederal Reserve Beige Book November 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20231129.pdfBloomberg Odd LotsWhy Multifamily Is the Next Stress Point in Commercial Real Estatehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-07/why-multifamily-is-the-next-stress-point-in-commercial-real-estateTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral

Christmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1What's the difference between a dollar short and a dollar shortage? The one actually comes from the needs of the other. To understand them both, you have to consider what a reserve currency really is - and what it is not- and how it is supposed to do its job. We're left considering only a range of bad options given those constraints. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral

Why is the Fed pivoting? More importantly, why now? We have to consider a couple of options since central bank officials are privy to more data than we have. Not that they know what to do with it, but if there's something they see perhaps we don't yet it's worth figuring it out ahead of time. After all, with rates plunging markets are in a rush to get somewhere already. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van MetreTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement

China's growing economy and financial turmoil may seem like a world away, but it's closer than you might think. After all, bond yields aren't just plunging around the globe solely because the US may or may not end up in recession. There are far greater and more immediate concerns elsewhere right now, starting with the Chinese. What happens there matters everywhere, too. Even Economists like Paul Krugman have had to come to terms with that. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisX (twitter) Kyle Bass CNBChttps://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1734227930933248050CNN Even 1.4 billion people can’t fill all of China’s vacant homes, ex-official admitshttps://www.cnn.com/2023/09/23/business/china-too-many-homes-for-1-4-billion-people-intl-hnk/index.htmlWorld Bank Global Economic Prospects June 2023https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/6e892b75-2594-4901-a036-46d0dec1e753/contentWorld Bank Navigating China's Post-Pandemic Growth Pathhttps://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/cf2c1298e77c50bf1f1e7954ff560bc6-0070012023/original/China-Economic-Update-Dec23-EN.pdfKrugman Reveals closed-door noteshttps://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20160401/p2a/00m/0na/022000cTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement

If you are interested, we are having a holiday sale. You can check it out here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1The FOMC and its dots. Stocks took them one way, bonds another. After pounding higher-for-longer all year, suddenly officials just gave up on it like nothing. That's a bit curious already. We need to understand what lower rates really mean, both in the marketplace and why the Federal Reserve (and others) are suddenly in agreement with bonds.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJay Powell Speech December 1, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231201a.htmJay Powell Press Conference December 13, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20231213.pdfFOMC SEP - the December dotshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20231213.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement

Is the bond market wrong? Has it been wrong in the past? How useful are these esoteric indications and curves? Do they actually corroborate with anything in reality?On the day when the Fed meets and all eyes are on interest rates, let's go through an example where it looked like the markets got it all wrong but in reality they got every last bit right. What curves were really telling us then, and what that can tell us about today.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: Traders Turbocharge ECB Bets by Predicting 2.5% Rate in 2024https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-05/markets-turbocharge-bets-that-ecb-will-lead-world-on-rate-cutsTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement

New multi-month low in oil, multi-year low in gasoline. Big turn into more contango for WTI futures. Energy sector completely overshadows US CPI for November even as energy prices are one key reason for the heavy disinflation in it. We need only look back to last year and wonder how we got to be in the same place all over again.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisOPEC Statement November 30, 2023https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7267.htmS&P Global Commodity Insightshttps://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/113023-saudi-arabia-russia-extend-oil-supply-cuts-into-q1-2024-as-other-opec-members-joinFOMC Transcript August 5, 2008https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20080805meeting.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #eurodollar #income

What's bothering bonds? Several key issues starting with how everything about China is going wrong right now. The country just reported a sizable acceleration in deflation, both consumer and producer, on top of increasing problems in its money markets like repo. With those developing against a backdrop of failed stimulus, Moody's has chimed in with downgrades to its outlook for the country, for its biggest banks, even several crucial regions. Basically, it's a mess but one that is globally synchronized in what may be very surprising ways. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-affirms-Chinas-A1-rating-changes-outlook-to-negative-from-Rating-Action--PR_481753?cid=GAR9PTU7VKT2671https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-outlooks-to-negative-on-eight-Chinese-banks-following--PR_482777Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement

If you want to check out the full video, visit Eurodollar University: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-pageTake advantage of this exclusive offer!The bond market scares many away as it’s full of jargon and technicalities, but that ends today with Alf’s Bond Market Course.And Alf throws in a juicy 20% OFF discount just for Eurodollar University listeners!The first 50 buyers can get 20% OFF by using the discount code ''JEFF'' at checkout:Here is the link - hurry up: https://themacrocompass.org/courses/#bond-market-courseEurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

November payrolls beat expectations yet again as the cycle stretches farther. Even so, the labor market is exhibiting telltale signs of recession anyway - not that it will matter to the soft landing narrative. Industries accounting for half of all private US jobs are cutting them. Contraction is widespread already, just not widespread enough to be accepted more broadly. The way things are going, and the way markets are pricing, still just a matter of time.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement

Bonds are screaming bloody murder. By contrast, stocks are taking everything in stride, betting more strongly on disinflation, soft landing, a few rate cuts, every possible Goldilocks angle. Or so it would seem. What do equities really price? Not fundamentals like "liquidity" as is so often claimed nor the economy. Valuations are a fiction. History shows us where the heart of the NYSE really lies, which means there is substantial risk diverging from bonds. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC: A brief history of the 401(k), which changed how Americans retirehttps://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/04/a-brief-history-of-the-401k-which-changed-how-americans-retire.htmlRobert Shiller 2013 Nobel Prize Lecturehttps://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/06/shiller-lecture.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement

Oil prices down big again. A lot more contango, too. Bond buying remains heavy and while not quite to the bull steepening it's moving in on that key point. All signs point to lower rates ahead, but isn't that a good thing? That's what we're supposed to believe...Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBen Bernanke: Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress April 2008https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20080402a.htmCNBC: Bernanke Says US Could Be Facing A Mild Recessionhttps://www.cnbc.com/2008/04/10/bernanke-says-us-could-be-facing-a-mild-recession.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserveMore big moves in the markets including key financial numbers. It is increasingly looking like we've reached the point of non-linearity for both the monetary system as well as the real economy. While waiting for labor market confirmation in the US about what's already happened, interest rate swaps are pricing ahead and like forward rate hedging there's not much to be upbeat about. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve #europe Wild trading last week wasn't just about recession worries, there was quite a bit of fear pushed into curves particularly forward curves and especially those in Europe. By Friday, the moves were astounding, the sort of swings last seen clustered around March and April. First, a review of what happened and then some analysis as to why therefore what. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve Recent Federal Reserve report claims at least half the country is already in recession, while another substantial portion likely is. Not only does that match softening rhetoric from policymakers, obviously there's been a radical change in markets, too.Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van MetreFederal Reserve Beige Book November 29, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20231129.pdfISM for November 2023https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/november/CNBC: Black Friday weekend shopping turnout soars to a record, as consumers seek bargainshttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/28/black-friday-weekend-shopping-turnout-soars-to-a-record.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #government #governmentdebt #debt Governments are out of control. This insanity can't go on much longer, can it? Understanding how it came to be this way, and why, that's the key to answering that question. Blackmail and myths. The problem isn't really govt debt, it's what the debt is being used to (try and) cover up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #china The more the Chinese government does, the worse you know it must be. China's government is doing even more. That simple rule applies to the global economy since conditions there are a reflection of how it's going around the world. Despite expectations the country has "turned a corner", the data keeps showing just the opposite. Globally synchronized and not in a good way. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: China Factory, Services Activity Shrink in Snag for Recoveryhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-30/china-s-factory-activity-shrinks-again-in-sign-of-recovery-woesSAFE: Balance of paymentswhttps://www.safe.gov.cn/en/2023/1103/2145.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity #lending #credit #europe #japanInterest rates all over the world are dropping, fast. Economic fundamentals are being repriced in global bonds - hard - now that the September effect has fully dissipated and - this is the important part - the world is more and more confirmed in its ugliness. So much so, even a former Fed hawk has to admit something has changed. Just wait until he finds out what that really means, since he isn't reading interest rates.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRB Governor Waller https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20231128a.htmBill Ackman interview previewhttps://www.bloomberg.com/peer-to-peerhttps://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231129223/why-bill-ackman-thinks-the-economy-will-need-a-fed-rate-cut-very-early-in-2024Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity #lending #credit #europe Banks all over the world are preparing for...something. In addition to hoarding liquidity, they're also derisking and back to hedging again. We see those among US banks and the financial system as well as in Europe where lending has especially suffered for defensive liquidity measures. Quite simply, if the world was heading for a soft landing and where banks are just fine, we wouldn't find any of these symptoms let alone all of them. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity Over the last several weeks there have been concerning developments across the global banking system. Overseas data point to serious enough trouble it is causing foreign official institutions to take evasive actions. But it isn't just offshore banks; data for domestic US banks shows correlated behavior. What's behind this sudden global liquidity hoarding?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #europe #france #germany #japan The balance is shifting more decisively, both in the global economy and official reaction to it. More central banks are now cutting rates than hiking them. This is an especially critical development since "monetary" authorities are typically among the last to recognize, admit, then act in response to serious weakness. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #europe #france #germany #japan Soft landing vs. hard landing isn't really hard. It all comes down to employment and the jobs market is merely the last stage in a discreet process. We have more and more information which more and more uniformly shows the world entering that last stage. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSPG US PMI US private sector employment falls for first time since June 2020 amidmuted demand conditionshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b72b9c19b3bd48e78027009aad143044HCOB Flash Eurozone PMI Employment falls for first time in almost three years as eurozonedownturn continueshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/20d35936ba1e4c8cac284d0a18afceefHCOB Flash France PMI French economy endures another steep contraction midway throughfourth quarterhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/73b931ce1dba4f068655878ca9a40625HCOB Flash Germany PMI Downturn in German economy eases in Novemberhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4b17e45241094fa3b97a9f55e81b7e74au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI Private sector activity stalls in Novemberhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/93d3415079964b6c898c8e0718d0ed51Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis #oil #gasoline Even OPEC is having trouble dealing with the growing turmoil in the oil market. Weak demand is forcing the cartel to confront very difficult choices. The reason is because recent price weakness isn't really just about energy. A whole range of financial indications are pointing once more in that wrong if familiar direction.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: OPEC+ Meeting Delayed as Oil Production Talks Hit Turbulencehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-22/opec-talks-hit-turbulence-as-saudis-agitate-over-output-levelsTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis #japan #collateral Bond market is getting wild. Big moves in a lot places included several many aren't paying close enough attention to. The previous selloff in LT USTs has kept focus on that one segment in this single market. Not only are there crucial warnings in the other UST curve spot, other curves are making an even bigger splash here, some you may not immediately think of. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: Bonds’ Best Month Since March Faces ‘Sanity Check’ in Auctionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-19/bonds-best-month-since-march-faces-sanity-check-in-auctionBloomberg: Booming Bond Rally Likely to Continue After Strong $16 Billion Debt Auctionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-20/treasury-rally-faces-test-in-pre-holiday-20-year-bond-auctionTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis Any amateur (like me) with a passing interest in economics knows the story: the Fed controls the economy by raising or lowering interest rates. Those then affect the banking system's credit impulse which either adds to or takes away from the general economy depending on what CBers wish to accomplish. Of course, almost none of that is true. How did it get to be this way? Answering that question reveals a lot more than you might think. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisECB Monetary Policy Decisions October 26, 2023https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp231026~6028cea576.en.htmlBundesbank TPIhttps://www.bundesbank.de/en/tasks/monetary-policy/outright-transactions/transmission-protection-instrument-tpi--896158FOMC Transcript August 1, 2011https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomc20110801confcall.pdfMilton Friedman: A Program for Monetary Stability (1960)https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/objects/57536/a-program-for-monetary-stabilityFOMC Transcript June 27-28, 2000https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20000628meeting.pdfRBI Michael Debabrata Patra: Lost in Transmission? Financial Markets and Monetary Policyhttps://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_SpeechesView.aspx?Id=1338BOE Catherine Mann: Expectations, lags, and the transmission of monetary policyhttps://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2023/february/expectations-lags-and-the-transmission-of-monetary-policy-speech-by-catherine-l-mann.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #oil #gasoline #cisco #walmart From Cisco to Walmart, bonds to oil. Don't call it a comeback, deflation has been here the whole time. Most just forgot about it or were distracted by the combined summertime of soft landing and oil prices. The downside of the disinflation rebound and the weakness it is revealing have brought all the bad deflationary feelings back up to the surface. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van MetreTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy The mainstream emphasis on Treasury auctions is, like so many of these things, completely misplaced. It's not just misplaced, even the worst Treasury auctions don't actually matter. Interest rates have nothing to do with how much debt the government issues. It's sad, it's not right, but that's the eurodollar world we live in. Uncle Sam has issued almost $20 trillion in debt over the last dozen years, and the long bond yield has barely moved - even with the Fed spiking ST rates.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC statement May 9, 2010https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20100509a.htmTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #retail #walmart Walmart makes a major warning. Jobless claims spike. Oil (and gas) prices aren't just crashing, the whole WTI curve just get whacked. All three of those are different angles on the same thing. What's driving bids for bonds. The deflationary recession wasn't avoided, merely delayed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC: Walmart shares slide as retailer gives a cautious outlook about consumer spendinghttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/16/walmart-wmt-earnings-q3-2024-.htmlBloomberg: Walmart Sinks on Cautious Consumer Outlook, Late-October Diphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-16/walmart-lifts-profit-outlook-stays-cautious-on-us-consumersAAA US average retail gasoline pricehttps://gasprices.aaa.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #retail #china #europe Bond yields dropping again. Oil curve back in contango. Is the economy resilient? Worrisome data from around the world and right where it hurts - consumers. US. China. Europe. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: China’s Mixed Economic Data Adds to Case for More Stimulushttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-15/china-s-economic-activity-mixed-as-beijing-steps-up-supportTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #cpi Massive buying in global bonds sparked by the US CPI. The consumer price estimates weren't shocking or even much of a surprise, instead they confirmed a lot about economic risks as well as what has been happening in bonds of late. The selloff isn't just over; it was never what everyone said it was. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: The Rapid Bond Rally Is Looking Fragilehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-10/rapid-bond-rally-is-looking-fragile-as-fed-supply-expose-cracksTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates They were all lovey-dovish last month in pausing rate hikes, then last week suddenly they're all hawks again. What changed? It wasn't the economy nor the economic data derived from it. The Fed's entire worldview is exposed when markets diverge from policymakers' preferred path. From rate hikes to the Phillips Curve, there is no basis for what central bankers do...accept to manipulate public opinion.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChair Jerome H. Powell At "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Global Economy," a policy panel at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, hosted by the International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231109a.htmNBER: IT’S BAAACK: THE SURGE IN INFLATION IN THE 2020S AND THE RETURNOF THE NON-LINEAR PHILLIPS CURVEhttps://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31197/w31197.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#stocks #interestrates #dollar #money #stockcrash The full video with Mike Green is available to Eurodollar University members and DDA subscribers. To see what memberships and research subscriptions offer, go here: https://www.eurodollar.university/memberssubscriptionsEurodollar University's guess conversations featuring Mike GreenTwitter: https://twitter.com/profplum99Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity #china #banks China's repo market nearly freezes up at the end of October and now this. Even the biggest institutions are taking unprecedented steps. On top of well-documented real estate woes, the most recent economic stats on the Chinese economy indicate right back into deflation. With that third failed reopening and only ongoing trouble for non-bank financial firms, the liquidity situation inside China is getting hot.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: China Banks Rush to Raise Funds After Cash Crunch Spooks Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-09/china-banks-rush-to-raise-funds-after-cash-crunch-spooks-marketBloomberg: PBOC Drains Liquidity in Signal It Sees Rate Surge as Temporaryhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-01/china-s-central-bank-drains-liquidity-after-overnight-rate-surgeBloomberg: PBOC Seen Adding Liquidity After China Money Market Rates Surgehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-31/pboc-aims-to-add-liquidity-after-surge-in-money-market-ratesTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7