Eurodollar University

The bedrock assumption for a soft landing in the US is continued consumer spending. The economy around the world really needs Americans to keep spending at close to the same rate. Instead, more evidence is coming in that they are just out of gas. In addition to macro statistics, more retailers are confirming the downturn and no longer just those who sell to lower-income consumers. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreTarget Introduces New Brand, dealworthy, Featuring Low Prices on Everyday Basicshttps://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/02/target-introduces-new-brand,-dealworthy,-featuring-low-prices-on-everyday-basicshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It isn't prospective rate cuts, the downward bias in market interest rates comes from real risks in the global system. The biggest of those are US commercial real estate (CRE) and China. Key developments in both show that the situation is fragile and that difficulties are serious even if playing out mainly in the shadows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Real Estate Pain Is Showing Up in an Obscure Investment Producthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/real-estate-pain-is-showing-up-in-collateralized-loan-obligations-closBloombergTV with Carson Blockhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-03-19/carson-block-warms-to-blackstone-mortgage-trust-short-videoBloomberg Short Seller Block Says He’s Even ‘More Bearish’ on Blackstone Mortgage Trusthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/block-says-he-s-even-more-bearish-on-blackstone-mortgage-trustSCMP China Vanke secures US$194 million loan from Industrial Bank in brief respite for troubled property developerhttps://www.scmp.com/business/article/3256021/china-vanke-secures-us194-million-loan-industrial-bank-brief-respite-troubled-property-developerhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Few were expecting anything more than a few franc sales from the Swiss National Bank today. Instead, the SNB boldly cut its ST rate specifically because it knows what's coming from around the rest of the world. And that doesn't mean inflation in Switzerland or anywhere else.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSNB Monetary Policy Assessment March 21, 2024https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20240321SNB Introductory remarks, news conferencehttps://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/speeches-restricted/ref_20240321_tjnmslanmarTaiwan Ministry of Economic Affairshttps://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos_e/bulletin/Bulletin_En.aspx?kind=14&html=1&menu_id=6744&bull_id=16037ECB Combined monetary policy decisions and statement 7 March 2024https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/shared/pdf/ecb.ds240307~8e06c79bf2.en.pdf?e86e578f1a99fdaa095a37dc4f1f6355https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A wild FOMC meeting triggered by a rejiggering of the dots. Those don't really matter except as insight into how confused policymakers have become. Why are they confused? Rate hikes don't appear to be working, so they are having a hard time deciding what should happen next. Markets aren't so conflicted, only about the likeliest path for ST rates. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC March 2024 Policy Statementhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20240320a1.pdfFOMC March 2024 Summary of Economic Projectionshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20240320.pdfCSPAN: President Biden Campaign Remarks March 8, 2024https://www.c-span.org/video/?534118-1/president-biden-delivers-campaign-remarks-philadelphiahttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Well, they did it. The Bank of Japan ended its NIRP and YCC, raising its call money rate for the first time in forever. That's not the issue. Why they did it is open for debate, one that right now is taking place across markets. It's not going well for the rate-hikers. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBoJ Statement March 19, 2024https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2024/k240319a.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Fed. Japanese destiny. Down Under. The Old Lady, Mexico, Brazil, and the Czech Republic. And those are just the start. A ton of central banks are going to be deliberating just this week. And while their policies don't really mean much to the economy, they can impact markets in the short run while also providing some somewhat useful clues about where the world really stands. Here's what to look for as it unfolds. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Fed shut down the BTFP, but just before it closed billions in loans were made to banks over the repeated objections of policymakers. Officials have been pushing depositories toward the Discount Window to the point even the FHLB system is dissuading its members from using its own advances as emergency liquidity. Yet, the last-minute BTFP indicates banks just aren't doing it with some substantial implications. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreFHFA FHLBank System at 100: Focus On the Futurehttps://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/FHLBank-System-at-100-Report.pdfFHFA Fact Sheet https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/PublicAffairsDocuments/FHLBank-System-at-100-Fact-Sheet.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China just held its National People's Congress amidst more economic and financial turmoil than at any time in its modern history. Two things quickly became clear: Xi Jinping continues to insulate himself politically from any potential fallout; his government has no idea what to be about it. The latest data from Chinese banks and the country's housing market highlight the gravity of the situation and how little policies are helping. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisPeople's Daily Graphic and Text Databasehttp://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2024-02/02/nw.D110000renmrb_20240202_3-03.htmChina State TV The Opening Meeting of the Second Session of the 14th NPChttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nL7iqyx-dBABloomberg China Vanke’s Dollar Bonds Signal Fears of Default Down the Roadhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-13/china-vanke-s-dollar-bonds-signal-fears-of-default-down-the-roadBloomberg China Sets GDP Goal That Needs Policy Support ‘From All Fronts’https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-05/china-s-gdp-growth-target-this-year-set-around-5-reuters-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

More recession signals. We've got the major dollar store chains in the US closing stores and reporting troubling results about consumer behavior. Those are now backed up by hard evidence in the form of retail sales, which have been much worse than initial thought. Behind everything, the looming recession, is the fact oil prices are NOT inflation nor inflationary. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisDollar General Q4 2023 resultshttps://investor.dollargeneral.com/websites/dollargeneral/English/2120/us-press-release.html?airportNewsID=977d63ef-cf4e-4b0b-bd80-624b382724f6https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Is "inflation" back? A big part of the answer to that question comes from the oil market, though not at all in the way you might think. A revisit of the 2008 crude oil bubble/shock to see what it can tell us about a lot more than consumer prices in 2024.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisOPEC March 2024 Announcementhttps://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7305.htmRemarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke October 21, 2004https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20041021/James D. Hamilton Brookings Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007–08https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2009a_bpea_hamilton-1.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

As serious economic weakness begins to increasingly show itself, the Fed is going to pivot and thereby try to sell the public on lower rates as somehow being something positive. A small bit of economy insurance and nothing more. And they'll point to 1995 as for why. In reality, this is already nothing like thirty years ago.Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Today is the last day for new loans from the Fed's BTFP, and there is still $165 billion being borrowed from it. In fact, that balance increased just last week. What are the implications of the shutdown? We keep coming back to the same factor which was all over last March. And with CRE looming in the background, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Evidence for US recession and labor market woes are getting much stronger. While everyone fixates on the growing absurdity of the payroll revisions, the CPS data threw up THREE very strong recession signals, each historically validated, showing this isn't a short-term fluctuation or narrow, isolated occurrence. Plus, a fourth signal that is entire consistent with those other three. Employment recession changes everything.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Full Disclosure: Jeff has worked with Mr. Saxe as a trustee for a stablecoin project Ryne is the COO for. The mainstream image of cryptocurrencies is cowboys and charlatans playing around with technology that doesn't seem to have any practical use. Kids are getting rich - many going broke - on what can appear to be trivial functions. Reality couldn't be farther from the truth. As Ryne points out, one key problem is that those who are indeed making a good-faith effort at making something and making it work are losing at the narrative. Worse, the government is no help (no surprise). Even so, there is tremendous progress being made right now in turning these digital projects into useful, usable money. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China's 10-year government bond yield just reached a 20-year low. UST yields are moving down again. What does it all mean; more importantly why do we need to care? It isn't just the signal bond curves provide, it is just as much the lack of direct access to the information we truly need. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Transcript February 1999https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19990203meeting.pdfBIS CGFS Papers No 65 US dollar funding: an international perspectivehttps://www.bis.org/publ/cgfs65.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Evidence continues to show we're in half a recession already. There is a huge discrepancy between the "strong" US employment in the media and what's actually happening. Even mainstream sources are being forced to deal with how different the jobs market is to those actually experiencing it. These aren't isolated cases or stories, the data backing them up continues to pile up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Economists say the labor market is strong — but job seekers don’t share that confidence. Here’s whyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/02/why-it-feels-so-hard-to-get-a-job-right-now.htmlInsight Global https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/unemployed-and-unmotivated-new-survey-finds-that-over-half-of-unemployed-americans-are-feeling-the-job-hunt-burnout-big-time-301909524.htmlReddit r/jobshttps://www.reddit.com/r/jobs/comments/16aetk9/the_job_market_is_awful_2023/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Gold is high but not on Waller. Fed Governor Chris Waller seems to have sparked the most recent jump in the metal, with people jumping all over their inference of some incoming Reverse Operation Twist. Untangling the fedspeak from so many huge misconceptions about gold - it is a TERRIBLE inflation hedge, as you'll see - in order to make sense of another legit red flag. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRB Christopher Waller Thoughts on Quantitative Tightening, Including Remarks on the Paper "Quantitative Tightening around the Globe: What Have We Learned?"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240301a.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It's bad enough that China's shakiest real estate firms are going to be creating big losses and not just for other Chinese financials. Now comes word the last remaining investment grade developer is rumored to be experiencing liquidity trouble, too. It is a sign of further progress - in the wrong direction. We need to understand what it means when Beijing is this impotent.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Digital technology is revolutionizing every aspect of our lives, now including money. The first in a three-part series as Jeff travels to ETH Denver, the world's preeminent Ethereum conference, to start digging in to digital with those who are actually doing it, the insiders. Up first, world-renowned scholar, investor and, yes, philosopher-historian Manny Rincon Cruz.Eurodollar University's conversations w/Manny Rincon Cruz

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisAP US national debt hits record $34 trillion as Congress gears up for funding fighthttps://apnews.com/article/national-debt-deficits-biden-economy-inflation-record-b4258704f830c7f6e9c5e693748216cbMilton Friedman Newsweek “Deficits and Inflation"https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/214251/fullhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Unlike most terms thrown around Economics, 'globally synchronized' is no joke. It also isn't a recent development. Throughout modern history, when a sizable portion of the world starts to show contraction it will spread throughout the rest with very few spared. It is a poignant reminder given how the same is happening right now. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBoJ New Procedures for Money Market Operations and Monetary Easing Mar 19, 2001https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2001/k010319a.htmSpeech given by Kazuo Ueda, Member of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, at Council on Foreign Relations in New York, May 11, 2001 https://www2.boj.or.jp/archive/en/announcements/press/koen_2001/ko0105a.htmSpeech by Dr. Willem F. Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, at Central Bankers' Panel at the International Monetary Conference, Singapore, 4 June 2001https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2001/html/sp010604.en.htmlFOMC Transcript November 1979https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19791120meeting.pdfSilent Revolution: The International Monetary Fund, 1979–89,https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/silent/index.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To get the rest of the Lyn Alden, George Gammon conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here:https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Japan is in recession, one that is getting worse. Japanese officials tell you not to believe your lying eyes, inflation is the greatest risk. All the data conclusively shows it is not, that Japan's contraction is a product of global forces that just so happen to be taking care of Japanese "inflation" risks, too. That's NOT a good sign. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To get the rest of the Lyn Alden, George Gammon conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here:https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1How accurate are market tools like spreads? If you're looking for absolute precision, you're in the wrong business. These measures are highly useful for broad purposes. Unfortunately, history shows those point in the direction of serious general economic misadventures. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To get the rest of this conversation and a whole lot more, become a Eurodollar University member or DDA subscriber. You can find the information about those here:https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Eurodollar University's conversations, Guests Lyn Alden & George Gammonhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#lynalden

The Federal Reserve "prints" bank reserves, that's it. To understand why that matters, you have to understand where bank reserves came from and what they were and are intended for. It isn't at all what you think. But don't take my word for it; that comes straight from the Fed itself. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRB Atlanta The Evolution of the Check as a Means of Payment: A Historical Survey, November 2008https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/economic-review/2008/vol93no4_quinn_roberds.pdfFRB Banking and Monetary Statistics 1914-41https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/bms/1914-1941/BMS14-41_complete.pdfFOMC Transcript July 1981https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19810707meeting.pdfFOMC Transcript October 1979https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19791006meeting.pdfFOMC Transcript March 1991https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below.https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4The FOMC's minutes for its January meeting shed light on the dilemma currently hitting policymakers. They're seeming embrace of the lower rates from last bond rally was no fluke. They instead share our growing and NOTABLE concerns over possible substantial fallout from CRE. However, they also can't help themselves whenever Phillips drops by. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Minutes January 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20240131.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another rash of layoffs is sweeping the US economy and its labor market. Only this time, unlike last year, the background behind them is far more concerning and even dangerous (economically, speaking). Those threatened by being thrown out of work know the score isn't entirely made up from those job cuts. It's actually the grim reality of no hiring. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Worries grow over a K-shaped economic recovery that favors the wealthyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/worries-grow-over-a-k-shaped-economic-recovery-that-favors-the-wealthy.htmlBloomberg How Companies Say ‘Layoffs’ Without Saying ‘Layoffs’https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/corporate-layoffs-all-the-ways-companies-say-someone-is-unemployedCNBC As companies lay off even more workers, they could be making a big mistake in the way they’re doing ithttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/20/as-companies-lay-off-even-more-workers-they-could-be-making-a-mistake.htmlChallenger, Gray & Christmashttps://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-announced-by-us-based-companies-surge-136-to-82307-to-begin-2024-financial-tech-lead/Bloomberg Job Cuts Are Sending a Chill Through the Remote Work Worldhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-21/layoffs-make-remote-workers-reconsider-work-from-home-jobs?srnd=economics-v2Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference November 1, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20231101.pdfCanadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2023https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/10/canadian-survey-of-consumer-expectations-third-quarter-of-2023/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below.https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4Chinese "banks" opted for an unusually large cut to China's benchmark 5-year Loan Prime Rate. In truth, that appears at the behest of Beijing where authorities are becoming increasingly desperate. Nothing they are doing is working - and Chinese banks know it. China has a growing bank problem on its hands before any of its other major problems.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg China’s Bold Mortgage Rate Cut Met With Lukewarm Reactionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/chinese-banks-cut-mortgage-reference-rate-by-most-on-recordCNBC China boosts property funding with first cut in key loan rate since Junehttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/china-cuts-benchmark-5-year-lending-rate-for-the-first-time-since-june.htmlMonetary policy shocks and the signaling channel of monetary policy in Chinahttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666933123000047?ref=pdf_download&fr=RR-2&rr=85898a601dfcdb01Bloomberg China’s Property Crisis Is Starting to Ripple Across the Worldhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/china-s-real-estate-crisis-is-starting-to-ripple-across-the-worldhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below.https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/EurodollarwebinarAs more countries around the world "unexpectedly" succumb to recession, the consequences aren't strictly economic. While globally synchronized means many more will follow, the costs need to be accounted for in human terms. Why does it feel like half the planet is on the move? It's the economy, stupid. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSkynews 8,000 migrants travel to southern border as election loomshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKgRbVGO2XUAutumn 2022 Economic Forecast: The EU economy at a turning pointhttps://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts/autumn-2022-economic-forecast-eu-economy-turning-point_enEC Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast: A modest recovery ahead after a challenging yearhttps://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_5743Winter 2024 Economic Forecast: A delayed rebound in growth amid faster easing of inflationhttps://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_730Fitch Ratingshttps://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/world-growth-to-fall-sharply-in-2024-us-recession-avoided-08-12-2023Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report Oct 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20231020.pdfWorld Bank Global Economic Prospects June 2023 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/6e892b75-2594-4901-a036-46d0dec1e753/contentTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university

There are just a few more spaces left to sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityIt's a recession rash. Economic growth expectations slashed, "unexpectedly", of course. Technical recessions spreading around the world's major economies because real ones are. Yet, still the idea of a US decoupling persists resting largely on a few past-tense stats and, most of all, equity investors. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityThere are a lot of parallels now and the 1970s - and inflation isn't actually one of them. The whole world saw recession coming in 1979, even that vast majority of those on the FOMC. Except, there was no recession in '79. It's what leads up to contraction that matters, not when it finally gets noticed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityThis is getting out of hand. Not only is it a major risk and not just to those "invested" in equities, there are several deeply troubling reasons to care why several major economy stock indexes are setting new highs while the economies allegedly tied to them suffer substantial now-recognized recessions. This isn't going to end well. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisInvesting.com Japan’s Nikkei 225 near record high as Q4 recession dents BOJ pivot betshttps://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/japans-nikkei-225-near-record-high-as-q4-recession-dents-boj-pivot-bets-3304175Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityStocks keep hitting new highs yet one of those markets which is doing just that also proves that it can't be because of the economy. This one leaves little doubt especially as so many other markets pile on with their views (not even talking bonds here). Stocks are buying a 'liquidity' story, not actual real world fundamentals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisMagnificent 7 Concentrationhttps://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644CNN Germany’s stock market just hit a new record high despite a faltering economy. What gives?https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/06/investing/german-stock-market-dax-record-high/index.htmlInvestopedia DAXhttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dax.aspBloombergNEF Copper Prices May Jump 20% by 2027 as Supply Deficit Riseshttps://about.bnef.com/blog/copper-prices-may-jump-20-by-2027-as-supply-deficit-rises/ING Aluminium surplus to persist as demand disappointshttps://think.ing.com/articles/aluminium-surplus-to-persist-as-demand-disappoints/Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityNo one remembers the "red hot" and "sticky" supply shock of 2010 and 2011 BECAUSE it was, yes, transitory. The Fed didn't need to raise rates or do anything. In fact, the FOMC was busy with more "accommodating" policies like Operation Twist and then two more QEs, yet consumer prices disinflate-d anyway. Outside of one artificial piece of the CPI, the January 2024 version was in every other way just like back then.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNNMoney Consumer prices up 2.1% in past yearhttps://money.cnn.com/2011/03/17/news/economy/cpi_inflation/index.htmBoston Fed Eric Rosengren A Look Inside a Key Economic Debate: How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Price Increases Driven by Supply Shocks?https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/speeches/a-look-inside-a-key-economic-debate-how-should-monetary-policy-respond-to-price-increases-driven-by-supply-shocks.aspxFOMC Transcript September 2011https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20110921meeting.pdfDecember 2011 Tealbookhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20111213tealbooka20111207.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityChina's yuan has been constantly put forward as a contender to 'dethrone' the dollar. Whatever sliver of a tiny chance it may have had before, it's zero now. The greater challenge is how to replace the existing reserve regime which does need an update. But that means eurodollar NOT dollar. This is not a trivial distinction; it is, in fact, everything. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRBNY Monthly Review November 1960https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/frbnyreview/rev_frbny_196011.pdf?utm_source=direct_downloadBIS Quarterly Review June 2012https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1206f.pdfBloomberg A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on Chinahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/a-99-bond-wipeout-hands-hedge-funds-a-harsh-lesson-on-chinaTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To get the rest of the conversation, become a Eurodollar University member and/or DDA subscriber. We've got unadvertised sales available that will allow you access to all the EDU content, including the the full hour-plus with Ken here:https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Eurodollar University's conversations w/Ken McElroyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityThe more they tell us how great everything is, the more you know it isn't. Americans like their compatriots from around the world know something isn't right. We've seen this kind of divergence from "elite" opinion, descriptions, even mainstream labor data before. Long and silent depression. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityYou might be amazed at just how much Chinese authorities have tried to stabilize their system. If you knew, you'd understand why so much of Beijing is verging on panic-mode. The huge response has come up empty which is a clear signal for how much trouble there really is. For his part, Xi Jinping purged another official unsurprisingly related to financial markets (stocks). Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Xi’s Markets Shakeup Surprised Insiders, Showing Alarm Over Routhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/xi-s-markets-shakeup-surprised-insiders-showing-alarm-over-routChina's Securities Regulatorhttp://www.csrc.gov.cn/csrc_en/c102030/common_list.shtml?channelid=84bedf81e76a4c20b9f43a7c7190519bTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityWhat's behind the renewed banking woes? Sure, we know it almost certainly has to do with commercial real estate, but we need to get a sense of how much trouble that might lead to. Digging into what information we have available, let's put some hard numbers on the CRE bubble while we go over the latest developments among the US regionals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFinancial Accounts of the United States (Z1)https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Greenstreet Commercial Property Price Indexhttps://www.greenstreet.com/insights/CPPIBrookline Bancorp Q4 2023 resultshttps://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/01/24/2816078/0/en/Brookline-Bancorp-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-Results.htmlBankUnited Inc Q4 2023 resultshttps://ir.bankunited.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bankunited-inc-reports-2023-resultsTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To sign up for our free February 19 webinar, follow the links at our homepage here:https://www.eurodollar.universityAccording to these historically validated datapoints, the worst is straight ahead for the US in 2024. In just two charts, we can place together three critical pieces of macroeconomic information which provides a useful guide for determining cyclical circumstances in the US economy. Bank lending, commercial borrowing and, most important, commercial employing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFederal Reserve SLOOShttps://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos.htmTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After an "unexpected" late 2023 plunge, oil prices rebounded and the WTI curve even managed to flip from contango to backwardation. Rather than point to a firming global situation, the latest move in the crude market instead proves it was just Red Sea shipping fears. A shocking collapse in German trade reminds us of what oil's fundamentals really are.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIEA Monthly Oil Report December 2023https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-december-2023IEA Monthly Oil Report January 2024https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-january-2024ECB Combined Policy Decision and Statement January 2024https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/shared/pdf/ecb.ds240125~d65b43331a.en.pdf?18350e063857b7aa27302e03a8f721d5https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/EurodollarwebinarIt's not just the payroll data that is conflicted with itself, there are a number of other mainstream sources where the economic situation depicted by them could not be more different. Stepping back and looking at it all, we end up finding more lining up one way than the other. As Jay Powell prepares to take a victory lap, if he hasn't already he may want to temper his enthusiasm.Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/EurodollarwebinarThis is getting ridiculous. We've become used to seeing Est. Survey vs. HH Survey in US labor data, but now it's Est. Survey vs. Est. Survey. The headline payroll number shows one thing, then the rest of the same data says the exact opposite. What in the hell is going on in the jobs report?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you're looking for a guide on collateral and how to spot shortfalls in it, get your copy of EDU's report on collateral shortages here:https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateralThis isn't about a relatively small New York community bank no one had heard of until yesterday. The markets reactions to it were far more important than the details of that bank's announcement. There is not a whole lot of faith in banking, and it may be the ball is rolling once again on that front. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNYCB Acquires Signature Assetshttps://ir.mynycb.com/news-and-events/news-releases/press-release-details/2023/NEW-YORK-COMMUNITY-BANCORP-INC.-THROUGH-ITS-BANK-SUBSIDIARY-FLAGSTAR-BANK-N.A.-ACQUIRES-CERTAIN-ASSETS-AND-ASSUMES-CERTAIN-LIABILITIES-OF-SIGNATURE-BRIDGE-BANK-FROM-THE-FDIC/default.aspxNYCB reports results for 2023https://ir.mynycb.com/news-and-events/news-releases/press-release-details/2024/NEW-YORK-COMMUNITY-BANCORP-INC.-REPORTS-RECORD-RESULTS-FOR-2023/default.aspxBloomberg Markets NY Community Bancorp Plunges as Real Estate Risks Jolt Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/new-york-community-bancorp-slumps-on-surprise-loss-dividend-cut?fromMostRead=trueFOMC Statement January 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20240131a1.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/EurodollarwebinarSuggest topics or someone to join Jeff on Presidents Day in the comments.Wild day in bonds has the market doing something highly unusual. There "shouldn't" be a rally in LT rates so soon after the last big one. Global markets are strong anyway which could be a warning about a couple things, from the monetary to the economy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Full interview with Brent Johnson on Eurodollar Dominancehttps://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollarYou won't believe how much debt our broke government issued last year. MULTIPLE trillions. At the same time, the Federal Reserve did three-quarters of a trillion USTs roll off its balance sheet (QT). Rather than destroy the Treasury market or bonds in general, quite the opposite has happened. You NEED to ask yourself WHY. There is no soft landing here.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTBAC Most Recent Quarterly Refundinghttps://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/quarterly-refunding/most-recent-quarterly-refunding-documentsTBAC Treasury Borrowing Estimates for Q1 2024https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2054https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

New York Fed's Empire PMI kicked off the January data cycle by plunging. In the meantime, the rest of the regional data filled in the picture for the month and the final one of the group ended up more like the first one than not. We shouldn't underestimate the usefulness of these surveys especially since there are numerous signs, however long it might end up being, this is still a cycle. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTexas Manufacturing Outlook Surveyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2024/2401#tab-reporthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To see the rest of Jeff's conversation with Hugh, become an EDU member or DDA subscriber. There is so much more available for EDU members and subscribers, starting with loads of background material, video series like the Basics, multi-part presentations, Q&A vids, Classroom pieces that go over the crucial parts of money and the eurodollar system. Subscribers to EDU's Deep Dive Analysis (DDA) get daily deep dives into current events, what's really happening and what they mean. We are having an "unadvertised" sales so you can take advantage of our best offer packaging the DDA and a membership together while also including our Daily Briefing, too. All the details here:https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Eurodollar University's Guest Conversations: Hugh Hendryhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Fed keeps having to screw around with what should be its primary job. The Fed is now trying to go back to the past with its Discount Window, hoping to fix it so the program might work this time. Officials are in a bind being forced to unwind the BTFP after unintentionally granting too generous terms. What are they missing? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU