Eurodollar University

FreightWaves Texas’ Arnold Transportation acquired by Canada’s Pride Group Logisticshttps://www.freightwaves.com/news/texas-arnold-transportation-acquired-by-canadas-pride-group-logisticsGlobal NewsWire Pride Group Logistics Expands U.S. Presence With the Acquisition of Arnold Transportation Services, Inc.https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/02/01/2377007/0/en/Pride-Group-Logistics-Expands-U-S-Presence-With-the-Acquisition-of-Arnold-Transportation-Services-Inc.htmlFreightWaves 92-year-old Texas trucking company files for bankruptcy liquidationhttps://www.freightwaves.com/news/92-year-old-texas-trucking-company-files-for-bankruptcy-liquidationInvestopedia Etsy Stock Dives as Retailer Warns of 'Challenging Environment' for Consumer Spendinghttps://www.investopedia.com/etsy-q1-2024-earnings-weak-consumer-spending-8642325ISM Services April 2024https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/april/Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The first disappointment from payrolls in what seems like forever is only the start. It follows a number of increasingly ugly developments including a solid shocker from the US services sector - and its own measure of employment. In addition to reviewing the latest updates, Jeff and Steve also take apart the "dovish" QT myth that has popped up.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What would the price of oil be without Saudi Arabia's actions? What would Treasury yields be without the Fed? There is a way for us to determine what the underlying fundamental monetary and financial conditions really are which offers a rough approximation for both. Crude would be a lot less and market interest rates, let's just say there's no inflation whatsoever in these fundamentals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

We need to confront the fact there remains a serious problem in the US with Marxism. To successfully counter the threat REQUIRES first we understand why that is and what keeps it going. It's not enough to "clap back" with platitudes correctly pointing to Communism's barbaric history. Nor is the modern world's prosperity a sufficient counterargument. The true Socialist admits that's what capitalism was supposed to have accomplished. The entire matter revolves around whether that last statement truly is in the past tense. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysisthe Atlantic Why the Phrase 'Late Capitalism' Is Suddenly Everywherehttps://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/05/late-capitalism/524943/QUB Law Society Demystifying late stage capitalism on both a global and national level: the ball and chain of a 21st century free market economy https://www.theverdictonline.org/post/demystifying-late-stage-capitalism-on-both-a-global-and-national-level-the-ball-and-chain-of-a-21stAP Archive CAN973 FILE / ARCHIVE FOOTAGE OF VLADIMIR LENINhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IJbNwt9J00RCM July 10, 2020 Socialism Would Have Been Easy to Discredit, Had There Been Growthhttps://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/07/10/socialism_would_have_been_easy_to_discredit_had_there_been_growth_498699.htmlThe Atlantic 26 Years of Growth: Shanghai Then and Nowhttps://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2013/08/26-years-of-growth-shanghai-then-and-now/100569/NYT Nov 14, 1939https://www.nytimes.com/1939/11/14/archives/browder-assails-pope-at-rally-here-he-tells-22000-at-the-garden.htmlTime Magazine May 30, 1938https://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19380530,00.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Hiring has near completely dried up in the US labor market, contrary to all mainstream talk of a booming economy. JOLTS hires was the lowest since March and April 2020, and apart from those the worst in six and a half years. That substantial weakness was further corroborated by some of the biggest companies in the world reporting sharply lower results on increasing consumer difficulties. Yet, everyone will be focused entirely on the Fed and its absurd "inflation" fixation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Chair Powell Press Conference Playback May 1, 2024https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0unztmcLvAUSA Todayhttps://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/03/07/job-market-cooling-despite-high-employment-numbers/72846912007/Behind the rosy job numbers, Americans are struggling to find workBloomberg Starbucks Posts First Sales Drop Since 2020 During Global Pullbackhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-30/starbucks-sbux-sales-slump-as-customers-pull-back-across-the-world?srnd=allBloomberg KFC Owner’s Sales Fall for First Time Since 2020https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/kfc-owner-s-sales-fall-for-first-time-since-2020-as-weakness-spreadsISM Manufacturing Press Releasehttps://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/april/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Evidence for demand destruction in the US economy is really piling up. Consumer sentiment tumbled, services businesses in parts of the country are shedding workers in a way and to a degree we only see during recession, and major Midwest manufacturing plunged. All that was just today. The common theme through each one is a change in employment conditions and not the good one. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysisthe Conference Board Consumer Confidencehttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidenceTexas Service Sector Outlook Surveyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2024/2404#tab-commentshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The first bank failure of 2024 is a familiar tale. A relatively small institution in Philadelphia, by itself it doesn't really mean all that much. However, there are a couple of important developments to go along with the background which raise questions and a few concerns. Is this the second chapter for the bank crisis?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFDIC Press Releasehttps://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/fulton-bank-na-lancaster-pennsylvania-assumes-substantially-all-depositsRepublic First's last SEC filinghttps://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000834285/6c29a651-35e8-48f3-8803-6b7376b1ab7f.pdfRepublic First's last posted balance sheethttps://investors.myrepublicbank.com/financial-info/balance-sheet/default.aspxBloomberg's April 2024 report on FDIC soliciting bidsFDIC Is Approaching Potential Buyers of Republic Firsthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/fdic-is-said-to-approach-potential-buyers-of-republic-firstBloomberg's October 2023 report on FDIC soliciting bidsFDIC Sought Buyers for Republic First Before Investor Dealhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-29/fdic-sought-buyers-for-republic-first-before-investor-dealhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This week's big miss in US GDP raises several questions about the state of the economy. It was significant enough to immediately call into doubt the soft landing. Last year's surge now appears to have been just a short run temporary jump, meaning GDP might be joining the majority of macro data indicating much sharper and more serious weakness than was though just before the data's release. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreS&P Global April 2024 flash PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2a6d069e95b3402f85a5e44e3ff49917https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It's not just that Japan's yen is crashing, it's what a yen crash means to everyone not only in Japan. But why? All you'll hear from the mainstream and most "experts" is that every currency exchange rate movement including JPY must be somehow related to a central bank, especially the Fed. It's a myth easily debunked. When doing the debunking the real truth emerges and it's not good. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Yen Drops Beyond 158 Per Dollar as BOJ Keeps Key Rate Unchangedhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-26/yen-drops-to-fresh-34-year-low-as-boj-keeps-key-rate-unchangedTrilateral Ministerial Joint Press Statementhttps://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2264FOMC Transcript February 1998https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19980204meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

GDP comes in the worst in two years because prices shot up again, therefore the term "stagflation" is going to be everywhere. Which prices changed actually makes a huge difference given the fact those particular prices are more likely to help the US economy get back to its depression tendencies. And on that count, we have irrefutable proof from oil, gasoline, and energy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Uncle Sam tried his best to buy a recovery. The sheer amount of money redistributed by the federal govt the past four years is incomprehensible. Here's the thing: the transfers didn't stop in 2021. A huge chunk of them kept going right on to today. And still it wasn't enough to stabilize an economy that is showing signs of even more weakening. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Oil prices aren't inflationary, they're disinflationary. We are getting more proof right now as incoming data shows demand being destroyed. This is creating difficulties for the US economy on top of severe strain around the rest of the world. Several key markets are picking up the distress, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisS&P Global Flash US Composite PMI https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2a6d069e95b3402f85a5e44e3ff49917Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report April 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20240419.pdfBloomberg China Is Front and Center of Gold’s Record-Breaking Rallyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-21/china-is-front-and-center-of-gold-s-record-breaking-rallyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Fed's latest semi-annual report on financial risks contains a couple of important updates. First, we get a sense of where the systemic attempt to deal with the downside to the commercial real estate bubble stands. That also feeds into the most recent updates on US banks and the deteriorating credit environment. Plus, we also take a look at why the Fed's report singled-out the stock market and what that means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFederal Reserve Financial Stability Report April 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20240419.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There is a tendency to conflate the behavior of consumer prices with the condition of the economy. With the current mania over recent CPIs in full bloom, fears extend into the real economy. Is it really "too hot?" Recent data from the Federal Reserve itself actually helps separate the facts from the misperceptions. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van MetreBeige Book April 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240417.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university

The world is starting to get the idea that rate hikes are not all they're cracked up to be. Yet, we're forced to focus endlessly on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies. Why? The answer is really simple. More importantly, what's really going on in the economy? That answer is also pretty simple, too.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJay Powell Jackson Hole August 2023 Inflation: Progress and the Path Aheadhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20230825a.htmFOMC Transcript July 2014https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20140730meeting.pdfBen Bernanke Jan 2009 The Crisis and the Policy Responsehttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20090113a.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Fed is all over the place, flip-flopping sometimes within a matter of weeks. They're confident about inflation then they're not. What's the real reason for so much back and forth, the obvious insecurity? It's the story no one really knows and what actually ties the current day with the past Great Inflation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCSPAN William Proxmirehttps://www.c-span.org/video/?322377-1/political-career-senator-william-proxmirehttps://www.c-span.org/video/?39834-1/government-wastehttps://www.c-span.org/video/?c4704392/sen-william-proxmireHutchinson v Proxmirehttps://www.oyez.org/cases/1978/78-680Federal Reserve Memo Nov 6, 1973 & letter from Arthur Burns to Senator Proxmirehttps://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/historical/burns/Burns_19731106.pdfNYT Dec 2, 1975 Proxmire Would Curtail Bankshttps://www.nytimes.com/1975/12/02/archives/proxmire-would-curtail-banks.htmlFOMC Transcript July 1981https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19810707meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOWhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springUpdates from the US housing and energy sectors heavily rebuff the idea reflation. There is supposed to be resurgent demand when new data shows the opposite, including a shocking crash in one critical segment. Not only do they contradict reflation, these also expose the CPI. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisRent.com The Rent Report April 2024https://www.rent.com/research/average-rent-price-report/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOWhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springUST yields are up somewhat sharply since early April, raising questions as to why that is. High on the public list of suspects is a government bond crisis for obvious Uncle Sam insanity reasons. Others point to possible reflation in higher yields. We do have a solid, historically validated answer for Treasuries, but it's written in German. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOWhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springHigher (slightly) interest rates and a couple rising commodities has brought back the reflation trade. For those to be valid, there would have to be widespread confirmation that a meaningful pickup in demand is brewing. Instead, there are huge holes including the most critical signal of them all. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisMining.com Global copper smelters less active after China’s planned output cutshttps://www.mining.com/web/global-copper-smelters-less-active-after-chinas-planned-output-cuts/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Is the Great Migration about to get worse? The answer starts in China where just the week the country already reported a sharp fall in consumer prices. CNY is down and so are government bond yields there. The Chinese also said the economy suffered a big drop in exports and then suffered a record low growth rate for lending. Banking woes, trade setbacks, further declines in growth and inflation expectations. The rest of the world is going to feel the effects.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisS&P Global Ratingshttps://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/231127-economic-research-economic-outlook-emerging-markets-q1-2024-challenging-global-conditions-will-constrain-gr-12923458Fitch Ratings Fitch Revises Outlook on China to Negative; Affirms at 'A+'https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-revises-outlook-on-china-to-negative-affirms-at-a-09-04-2024https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The economy is doing just fine according to many statistics, but according to most people it is anything but. Those aren't just idle malcontents, either. A fundamental fact of the current state of the world is that it will have to reckon for that economic pain and substantial loss. Many now merely believe that worst is behind is, but what if it is still lying just ahead?Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van MetreFRB Philadelphia Q4 2023 Insights Reporthttps://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/2023-q4-large-bankJP Morgan Chase Q1 2024 earningshttps://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2024/1st-quarter/6678012b-9242-492b-acd0-1473eabade3c.pdfCitigroup Q1 2024 earningshttps://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/Earnings/Q12024/2024prq1.pdfWells Fargo Q1 2024 earningshttps://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/about/investor-relations/earnings/first-quarter-2024-earnings.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Yesterday's US CPI reignited the fierce debate over a possibly sticky inflation future. China just ended it by reminding the world of its stubborn deflationary present with the third largest monthly CPI drop in the last twenty years. Producer prices also decline which is a solidly disinflationary signal for China and the world regardless of the latest consumer price numbers from elsewhere. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChina's NBS Consumer prices press releasehttps://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240411_1954446.htmlChina's NBS Producer prices press releasehttps://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240411_1954447.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another CPI comes in higher than expected. This isn't some harbinger of an impending price spiral, just the regular fluctuations in consumer prices driven largely by oil. It has stirred up inflation fears anyway in large part because it seems as if the CPI and especially the core rate is now stuck at a structurally higher rate. History cautions when making those assumptions. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOWhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springHawkish policymakers, oil prices, higher for longer all over the media. Why are banks, not just central banks, already cutting rates? Contrary to what you hear in the mainstream, policymakers aren't actually all that hawkish. More importantly, global markets are pricing more assertively for fragility not soft landing.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Goldman’s Marcus Frontruns Fed With Rate Cut on Savings Accounthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-04/goldman-s-marcus-frontruns-fed-with-rate-cut-on-savings-accountBloomberg State Street Sees Half-Point Fed Rate Cut as Soon as Junehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-09/state-street-sees-half-point-fed-rate-cut-as-soon-as-juneBloomberg Fed’s Kashkari Floats Possibility of No Rate Cuts This Yearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-04/fed-s-kashkari-floats-possibility-of-no-rate-cuts-this-yearBloomberg Fed’s Kashkari Sees Two Rate Cuts in 2024, Potentially Just Onehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-06/fed-s-kashkari-sees-two-rate-cuts-in-2024-potentially-just-oneReuters Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists sayhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/inverted-yield-curve-no-longer-reliable-recession-flag-strategists-say-2024-03-12/NFIB March 2024 reporthttps://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOWhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springWhat if gold and oil are actually trading on the same outcome? Despite popular misconceptions, a non-economic oil shock like the one we're currently experiencing is NOT inflationary. On the contrary, history shows it will almost certainly be disinflationary because of the negative impact it has on the economy. And if that impact is negative enough, that will lead to sharply lower interest rates - the very factor driving gold to all-time highs.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg The Gold Market Hunts for Answers Behind Bullion’s Sudden Surgehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-07/the-gold-market-hunts-for-answers-behind-bullion-s-sudden-surge?fromMostRead=trueBernanke, Gertler, Stock Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shockshttps://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1997/01/1997a_bpea_bernanke_gertler_watson_sims_friedman.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOWhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springOil is up sharply as fears over a wider conflict in the Middle East continue to rise. Quite predictably, this has raised widespread concerns over renewed "inflation." But we just did this six months ago and that example shows what we should expect today and going forward. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOWhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springYet another blowout payroll number from the government. Even though the BLS's "other" employment estimates managed a sharp rebound on the month, the difference between the two has become intolerable. How do we know which one might be closer to reality? We make a bunch of comparisons to see which way the weight of evidence falls. Also, every month has 28 days.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOWhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springChina's currency trading was wild yesterday, CNY moving just a few pips above the PBOC's daily limit. But then, the country closed down for the rest of this week leaving the whole world hanging as to what might happen next. Will yuan breach the daily band for the first time ever? Might the central bank relent like it usually does? More important than those, what does all this mean? The simplest "equation" in all economics holds the answer. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJapan Times Ex-finance official who warned of Japan's 2022 yen intervention sounds alarmhttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/04/03/markets/former-currency-chief-warns-of-yen-intervention/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOWhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springMonday's "strong" ISM manufacturing data sparked a whirlwind of inflation fear(mongering). Today's far more important and weak ISM non-manufacturing data barely took any notice. Why is that? The answer is obvious even though the latter series on services is far more important for the overall economy especially since these estimates for it are highly correlated with so many other critical variables. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg June Fed Rate-Cut Odds Dip Below 50% After Strong ISM Datahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/treasury-yields-extend-climb-after-strong-ism-factory-gaugeshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOWhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springTo hear everyone tell it, bond yields are surging. Losses in the marketplace are "piling up" allegedly because hawkish central bankers will be fighting inflation a lot longer than previously hoped since the economy is so insatiably red hot. Except, none of that is true; starting with bond yields. And we can check our work, too, in a way that actually touches the real world.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Bond Market Sees Fewer Rate Cuts Than Fed, Deepening Losseshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-02/markets-back-to-seeing-fewer-rate-cuts-than-the-federal-reserveBloomberg Fed’s Daly Says Three Rate Cuts Is Reasonable Baseline for 2024https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-02/fed-s-daly-says-three-rate-cuts-is-reasonable-baseline-for-2024?srnd=fixed-incomehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOWhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springGold continues to soar, hitting almost as many record highs as stocks. And that's a problem because unlike stocks gold tends to be a useful indicator and warning sign. There are three theories as to what's behind the golden surge. Here we examine the evidence and consistency of all three. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRB Chair Jerome Powell Testimony to Senate Banking Committee March 7, 2024https://www.c-span.org/video/?533955-1/federal-reserve-chair-testifies-monetary-policy-economyCommercialEdge March 2024 Office Reporthttps://www.commercialedge.com/blog/national-office-report/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It is critical to understand what is happening in China first of all. The country is suffering from a confluence of longer-term structural imbalances butting up against near-term strategies ostensibly aimed at minimizing the fallout. The risks are complex though in broad terms pretty easy to sketch out. They include potential impacts on global liquidity, one of the most misunderstood topics in finance. If are interested in Alf’s Macro Investment Fund, drop him an email for information at this address: [email protected] Alf’s Course: TheMacroCompass.substack.com Other Courses: https://themacrocompass.org/courses/Eurodollar University's conversations w/Alfonso Peccatiellohttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

CHECK OUT EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALEhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-springWhat is it with banks these days? Well, this time it may not be the bank themselves. According to the latest data from the ECB, European depositories are lending loads to non-banks over there. That's not a good sign and in this video you'll see why that is - and why it isn't just Europeans who should be seriously concerned. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisECB Manual on MFI statisticshttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/ecb.manualmfibalancesheetstatistics202402~8e4fc2ccca.en.pdfECB November 2023 Financial Stability Reviewhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202311~bfe9d7c565.en.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

We keep getting more and more recession confirmation. Soft data comes in ugly and is easily corroborated by hard estimates from a variety of sources. The only part missing is the layoffs. Where are they? Part of the answer comes from hoarding, though the more important piece is not what you might think. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Japanese are really getting bothered by weakness in the yen. But where is it coming from, and what might be done about it? Officials in Tokyo are threatening to intervene again, but a review of past interventions shows not just the folly of any attempt, better yet some useful clues about what's really happening here. It isn't Japan.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Japan Amps Up Intervention Threat as Yen Hits Lowest Since 1990https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-27/yen-drops-to-lowest-since-1990-amid-intervention-speculationNYT Sept 1992 Agility Counts in Currency Chaoshttps://www.nytimes.com/1992/09/17/business/market-place-agility-counts-in-currency-chaos.htmlJapan Ministry of Finance Foreign Exchange Operationshttps://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/international_policy/reference/feio/quarter/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

As more signs of instability pile up around the world but also coming from inside the US. Those are evidence for the continuing downside to the supply shock, the same cycle, not a soft landing. What are the key differences? Employing a few critical datapoints it's easy to see how much of a divergence there already has been and what that likely means for the upcoming period. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Something just hit the US banking system. Tons of cash gone from their balance sheet seemingly as they reallocate their assets. At the same time this is going on, the dollar has surged against primarily Asian currencies rocking those countries and leading to several government backlashes. Are these all related? The answer appears to be, yes.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The bedrock assumption for a soft landing in the US is continued consumer spending. The economy around the world really needs Americans to keep spending at close to the same rate. Instead, more evidence is coming in that they are just out of gas. In addition to macro statistics, more retailers are confirming the downturn and no longer just those who sell to lower-income consumers. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreTarget Introduces New Brand, dealworthy, Featuring Low Prices on Everyday Basicshttps://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/02/target-introduces-new-brand,-dealworthy,-featuring-low-prices-on-everyday-basicshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It isn't prospective rate cuts, the downward bias in market interest rates comes from real risks in the global system. The biggest of those are US commercial real estate (CRE) and China. Key developments in both show that the situation is fragile and that difficulties are serious even if playing out mainly in the shadows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Real Estate Pain Is Showing Up in an Obscure Investment Producthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/real-estate-pain-is-showing-up-in-collateralized-loan-obligations-closBloombergTV with Carson Blockhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-03-19/carson-block-warms-to-blackstone-mortgage-trust-short-videoBloomberg Short Seller Block Says He’s Even ‘More Bearish’ on Blackstone Mortgage Trusthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/block-says-he-s-even-more-bearish-on-blackstone-mortgage-trustSCMP China Vanke secures US$194 million loan from Industrial Bank in brief respite for troubled property developerhttps://www.scmp.com/business/article/3256021/china-vanke-secures-us194-million-loan-industrial-bank-brief-respite-troubled-property-developerhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Few were expecting anything more than a few franc sales from the Swiss National Bank today. Instead, the SNB boldly cut its ST rate specifically because it knows what's coming from around the rest of the world. And that doesn't mean inflation in Switzerland or anywhere else.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSNB Monetary Policy Assessment March 21, 2024https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20240321SNB Introductory remarks, news conferencehttps://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/speeches-restricted/ref_20240321_tjnmslanmarTaiwan Ministry of Economic Affairshttps://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos_e/bulletin/Bulletin_En.aspx?kind=14&html=1&menu_id=6744&bull_id=16037ECB Combined monetary policy decisions and statement 7 March 2024https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/shared/pdf/ecb.ds240307~8e06c79bf2.en.pdf?e86e578f1a99fdaa095a37dc4f1f6355https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A wild FOMC meeting triggered by a rejiggering of the dots. Those don't really matter except as insight into how confused policymakers have become. Why are they confused? Rate hikes don't appear to be working, so they are having a hard time deciding what should happen next. Markets aren't so conflicted, only about the likeliest path for ST rates. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC March 2024 Policy Statementhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20240320a1.pdfFOMC March 2024 Summary of Economic Projectionshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20240320.pdfCSPAN: President Biden Campaign Remarks March 8, 2024https://www.c-span.org/video/?534118-1/president-biden-delivers-campaign-remarks-philadelphiahttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Well, they did it. The Bank of Japan ended its NIRP and YCC, raising its call money rate for the first time in forever. That's not the issue. Why they did it is open for debate, one that right now is taking place across markets. It's not going well for the rate-hikers. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBoJ Statement March 19, 2024https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2024/k240319a.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Fed. Japanese destiny. Down Under. The Old Lady, Mexico, Brazil, and the Czech Republic. And those are just the start. A ton of central banks are going to be deliberating just this week. And while their policies don't really mean much to the economy, they can impact markets in the short run while also providing some somewhat useful clues about where the world really stands. Here's what to look for as it unfolds. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Fed shut down the BTFP, but just before it closed billions in loans were made to banks over the repeated objections of policymakers. Officials have been pushing depositories toward the Discount Window to the point even the FHLB system is dissuading its members from using its own advances as emergency liquidity. Yet, the last-minute BTFP indicates banks just aren't doing it with some substantial implications. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreFHFA FHLBank System at 100: Focus On the Futurehttps://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/FHLBank-System-at-100-Report.pdfFHFA Fact Sheet https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/PublicAffairsDocuments/FHLBank-System-at-100-Fact-Sheet.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China just held its National People's Congress amidst more economic and financial turmoil than at any time in its modern history. Two things quickly became clear: Xi Jinping continues to insulate himself politically from any potential fallout; his government has no idea what to be about it. The latest data from Chinese banks and the country's housing market highlight the gravity of the situation and how little policies are helping. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisPeople's Daily Graphic and Text Databasehttp://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2024-02/02/nw.D110000renmrb_20240202_3-03.htmChina State TV The Opening Meeting of the Second Session of the 14th NPChttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nL7iqyx-dBABloomberg China Vanke’s Dollar Bonds Signal Fears of Default Down the Roadhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-13/china-vanke-s-dollar-bonds-signal-fears-of-default-down-the-roadBloomberg China Sets GDP Goal That Needs Policy Support ‘From All Fronts’https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-05/china-s-gdp-growth-target-this-year-set-around-5-reuters-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

More recession signals. We've got the major dollar store chains in the US closing stores and reporting troubling results about consumer behavior. Those are now backed up by hard evidence in the form of retail sales, which have been much worse than initial thought. Behind everything, the looming recession, is the fact oil prices are NOT inflation nor inflationary. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisDollar General Q4 2023 resultshttps://investor.dollargeneral.com/websites/dollargeneral/English/2120/us-press-release.html?airportNewsID=977d63ef-cf4e-4b0b-bd80-624b382724f6https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Is "inflation" back? A big part of the answer to that question comes from the oil market, though not at all in the way you might think. A revisit of the 2008 crude oil bubble/shock to see what it can tell us about a lot more than consumer prices in 2024.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisOPEC March 2024 Announcementhttps://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7305.htmRemarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke October 21, 2004https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20041021/James D. Hamilton Brookings Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007–08https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2009a_bpea_hamilton-1.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Today is the last day for new loans from the Fed's BTFP, and there is still $165 billion being borrowed from it. In fact, that balance increased just last week. What are the implications of the shutdown? We keep coming back to the same factor which was all over last March. And with CRE looming in the background, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

As serious economic weakness begins to increasingly show itself, the Fed is going to pivot and thereby try to sell the public on lower rates as somehow being something positive. A small bit of economy insurance and nothing more. And they'll point to 1995 as for why. In reality, this is already nothing like thirty years ago.Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Evidence for US recession and labor market woes are getting much stronger. While everyone fixates on the growing absurdity of the payroll revisions, the CPS data threw up THREE very strong recession signals, each historically validated, showing this isn't a short-term fluctuation or narrow, isolated occurrence. Plus, a fourth signal that is entire consistent with those other three. Employment recession changes everything.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU