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All year all anyone has heard is the Fed and its rate cuts. Soft landings imply a little weakness but no worry, Jay Powell will cut rates once maybe twice and everything will be just fine. The only question is, why on earth does anyone believe this? The evidence and history of interest rate targeting - as you'll see - is indeed 100%, as in total failure. Rate cuts (like hikes) are pure superstition. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S LIVESTREAM NEXT TUESDAY, 7/23 btw 6 - 8 pm ETEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALE:https://www.eurodollar.universityPBS Is the Fed going to cut interest rates? What was once a question of ‘when’ is now less certainhttps://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/is-the-fed-going-to-cut-interest-rates-what-was-once-a-question-of-when-is-now-less-certainMorningstar We Expect GDP Growth to Weaken Until Fed Starts Cutting Interest Rateshttps://www.morningstar.com/economy/we-expect-gdp-growth-weaken-until-fed-starts-cutting-interest-ratesFOMC Transcript March 1991https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdfRemarks by Chairman Alan GreenspanRules vs. discretionary monetary policyAt the 15th Anniversary Conference of the Center for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University, Stanford, CaliforniaSeptember 5, 1997https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/1997/19970905.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

In the midst of other major warnings, here comes another substantial one. Copper has moved way past its supply squeezed record high from just two months ago and is now crashing. At the same time, gold is reaching new heights. The copper to gold ratio therefore just dropped to its lowest since...November 2020. Taking a deeper look at what all this means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S LIVESTREAM NEXT TUESDAY, 7/23 btw 6 - 8 pm ETEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALE:https://www.eurodollar.universityBloomberg China’s Unusually Large Copper Stockpiles Fuel Demand Concernshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/china-s-unusually-large-copper-stockpiles-fuel-demand-concernsBloomberg Gold Slips From Record High as Traders Ponder Bet on Fed Pivothttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-17/gold-holds-at-record-high-as-rate-cut-bets-fuel-demand-rushhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Swaps are of paramount importance to the financial world, priced by the very monetary system itself. As a consequence, swap market indications are even more critical than the yield curve. But what does it all mean, and how can you decipher what appear its confusing signals? A few minutes on some manageable basics and you're ready to read the market's big move.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S LIVESTREAM NEXT TUESDAY, 7/23 btw 6 - 8 pm ETEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALE:https://www.eurodollar.universityhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another part of the yield curve un-inverted, this time the short to long segment. Demonstrating the perpetual inability to make sense of it, mainstream sources are suggesting some "Trump trade" is behind this. No. Unequivocally no. The classic bull case is building and this is merely the latest nascent signal. It isn't complete yet, but incoming data including today's negative retail sales continues to suggest the same case.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S LIVESTREAM NEXT TUESDAY, 7/23 btw 6 - 8 pm ETEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALE:https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUNYT 30-year U.S. bond is back in big wayhttps://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/09/business/worldbusiness/30year-us-bond-is-back-in-big-way.html

It started Friday when China's central bank reported more than just new record low credit stats, the deterioration over the past few months has been astounding. That obviously spread to the Chinese economy which the government confirmed today with ugly data across-the-board, big miss in GDP and grim numbers on retail sales. Yet, everyone wants more "stimulus" that all this data proves didn't stimulate a thing. Something to keep in mind when thinking about upcoming Fed rate cuts.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNN How ready is China’s military? Dramatic downfall of two defense ministers raises questionshttps://www.cnn.com/2024/07/01/china/china-defense-ministers-downfall-analysis-intl-hnk/index.htmlFxStreet China: GDP miss calls for faster fiscal spending – Standard Charteredhttps://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-gdp-miss-calls-for-faster-fiscal-spending-standard-chartered-202407151119FT China plays down hopes for ‘strong medicine’ at top economic policy meetinghttps://www.ft.com/content/6f4079ea-e8fe-46c8-84b3-75aff56b7011Reuters China June new bank loans miss forecasts, some money gauges hit record lowshttps://www.reuters.com/business/finance/china-june-new-bank-loans-miss-forecasts-some-money-gauges-hit-record-lows-2024-07-12/EURODOLLAR UNVERSITY ANNIVERSARY SALE INFORMATION:https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Why does the Japanese government keep intervening trying to prop up the yen, and why does it keep failing? This isn't just about the yen or Japan, nor is it completely a matter of what's unfolding right now. There is a deeper truth that needs to be made more widely which applies universally to monetary systems around the world. And the yen's crash is the clearest example. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreCHECK OUT OUR ANNIVERSARY SALE PRICES AT:https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There was an unnoticed yet absolutely critical detail in the June CPI report that pointed to a lot more than just benign disinflation, a development that has only rarely been observed in decades of history. More disturbing still, the context behind this one is consistent with those few past instances including a few new pieces of subsequent information. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Transcript April 2010https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20100428meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The June consumer price estimates at first seemed like good news. Two months in a row at low and now negative changes. But these past two months have shown a little more weakness than most had bargained for, instead so many of the details consistent with recession indications spilling out from all over the economy. No wonder bond yields dropped sharply, though, alarmingly, swap spreads got there well before today. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBLS June 2024 CPIhttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdfBloomberg Stocks See Big Rotation as Yields Sink on Fed Bets: Markets Wraphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-10/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updatesEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY ANNIVERSARY SALE PAGEhttps://www.eurodollar.university/anniversary-salehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Chinese authorities are becoming increasingly desperate over their inability to stabilize any of the economy, banking system, or markets. CNY keeps going down, as does the economy. Banks in China aren't lending while dozens are now 'disappearing.' Safety/liquidity of government bonds makes perfect sense. Not to the PBOC which is going to be shorting it by hundreds of billions and this is why.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY ANNIVERSARY SALE PAGEhttps://www.eurodollar.university/anniversary-saleBloomberg Closer Yen, Yuan Correlation Is Danger Sign for Asian Currencieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-10/closer-yen-yuan-correlation-is-danger-sign-for-asian-currencies?srnd=economics-v2X Video showing Jiangxi Bank 'protest'https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1810456112652779538The Economist Why Chinese banks are now vanishinghttps://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/07/04/why-chinese-banks-are-now-vanishingBloomberg China Merges Hundreds of Rural Banks as Financial Risks Mounthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/china-merges-hundreds-of-rural-banks-as-financial-risks-mountBloomberg China's PBOC Readies Multibillion-Yuan Pool of Bonds to Sell by Tapping Major Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-05/pboc-readies-hundreds-of-billions-of-yuan-bond-sale-capacityCNN Chinese government bonds are on fire. That’s ringing alarm bells in Beijinghttps://www.cnn.com/2024/07/03/business/china-bond-market-bank-crisis-svb-intl-hnk/index.htmlChina NBS June 2024 CPIhttps://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202407/t20240710_1955508.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

From 'strong and resilient' to 'uh oh' in a heartbeat. The unemployment rate has intruded itself on the soft landing narrative, forcing a near-total rethink of the situation all across the mainstream. Some major bank strategists are now calling for aggressive rate cuts from the Fed at the same time the yield curve is beginning to flash bull. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY ANNIVERSARY SALE PAGEhttps://www.eurodollar.university/anniversary-saleFed Chair Powell testimony (courtesy CBS News)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Og8W_VK1gMMFed Chair Powell prepared remarks before Congresshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20240709a.htmCNBC The Fed is ‘playing with fire’ by not cutting rates, says creator of ‘Sahm Rule’ recession indicatorhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/18/economist-sahm-who-devised-recession-rule-says-the-fed-is-playing-with-fire-.htmlFortune The Fed could slash rates by 200 points over 8 straight meetings as the economy heads for a sharper downtrend, Citi sayshttps://fortune.com/2024/07/07/fed-rate-cuts-outlook-200-points-economy-sharper-slowdown-citi/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Political turmoil in Europe is very easy to understand. The European economy is supposed to be recovering from its unofficial recession, and yet the most recent data shows instead alarming (re)acceleration to the downside in a number of places. Realizing this means the path to clawing back some of the supply shock's price increases is disappearing, voters are simply voting accordingly. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisPew Research Center Economic ratings across 34 countries are more negative than positivehttps://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/06/07/economic-ratings-across-34-countries-are-more-negative-than-positive/World Bank Global trade has nearly flatlined. Populism is taking a toll on growthhttps://blogs.worldbank.org/en/voices/global-trade-has-nearly-flatlined-populism-taking-toll-growthUN Trade and Development Global economic growth set to slow to 2.6% in 2024, just above recession thresholdhttps://unctad.org/news/global-economic-growth-set-slow-26-2024-just-above-recession-thresholdhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Unemployment in the US is now steadily moving higher. The June 2024 employment report contained more substantial downward revisions, evidence more employers are cutting hours, and most concerning is another increase to the unemployment rate. And, contrary to many claims, it's not the "good" kind of rising unemployment.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreBLS Employment Situation Summary June 2024https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmBloomberg The US Economic Slowdown Is Looking More Threateninghttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-05/us-jobs-report-economic-slowdown-is-looking-more-threateningFOMC June 2024 Minuteshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20240612.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

According to multiple recent reports, banks are very quietly selling out of CRE positions. Those reports are backed up by banking data which clearly shows an inflection in systemic loans in the space. Combined, we have strong evidence showing the second stage of the CRE bust has now started. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters Big US banks withstand Fed's commercial real estate shock scenariohttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/big-us-banks-withstand-feds-commercial-real-estate-shock-scenario-2024-06-26/Federal Reserve Stress Test Results 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2024-dfast-results-20240626.pdfNYT Office Building Losses Start to Pile Up, and More Pain Is Expectedhttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/06/business/office-building-foreclosures-losses.htmlNYT Fearing Losses, Banks Are Quietly Dumping Real Estate Loanshttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/24/business/commercial-real-estate-loans.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Modern economies have been moving in the direction of ledger money not for years or decades, for centuries. The world's current reserve currency, the eurodollar, merely represented the second stage in the evolutionary process. Now that it has surpassed its useful life, the door is wide open for the third stage which seems tailor-made for something like Bitcoin. Why hasn't the digital ledger taken advantage of the opportunity? Is there some other kind which is?Eurodollar University's Special Presentation: Ledger Money Won't Be PerfectEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALEMemberships with a ton more content like this. Presentations. Basics videos on money. Classroom vids going deep into the eurodollar format. QnAs. Guest conversations. Subscriptions on current events and topics. All at some of the best prices we've offered since Eurodollar University launched two years ago. https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Fed officials have repeatedly stated they are going to be patient before pivoting to rate cuts. But that would only be the case if the economy is actually strong and resilient. Should the labor market show signs of falling off dramatically, they'd cut their rates in a hurry. Today's macro data were filled with exactly those kinds of warning signs. EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALE - DETAILS AT https://eurodollar.universityEurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Powell Welcomes Recent Data But Fed Needs More Confidence to Cuthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-02/powell-welcomes-recent-data-but-fed-needs-more-confidence-to-cutBloomberg Bond Traders Boldly Bet on 300 Basis Points of Fed Cuts by Marchhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-25/bond-traders-boldly-bet-on-300-basis-points-of-fed-cuts-by-marchBloomberg US Services Activity Contracts at Fastest Pace in Four Yearshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-03/us-services-activity-contracts-at-fastest-pace-in-four-yearshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you want to watch the full interview check it out at https://www.eurodollar.universityEveryone wants to know the answer to the recession question. So, by very popular demand, Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro Research checks in with Jeff on the unusual state and status of the US business cycle. The whole monumental matter just might come down to houses. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Government bond yields in China just plunged to more record lows as market agents are growing even more pessimistic. The unquenchable demand for safe and liquid assets has the PBOC getting ready to sell bonds into a marketplace that is increasingly concerned about a lot more than Chinese issues. More strong evidence for globally synchronized.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Economists Raise China Growth Forecasts as Exports Improvehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-25/economists-raise-china-growth-forecasts-as-exports-improveBloomberg El-Erian Says Slowing Economy Raises Fed Policy-Error Riskhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-28/el-erian-says-slowing-economy-raises-fed-policy-error-riskBloomberg A $100 Billion Bet on China’s Economy Sours as Warehouses Emptyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-01/china-s-third-plenum-and-what-it-means-for-tax-reform-and-supply-chains?srnd=economics-v2https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Soft landings and resilient economy supported by strength in labor markets. At least that's the narrative, the truth is completely different. Much of the developed world is being swept up in a wave of rising unemployment. Yes, including the US.;/Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreBank of Canadahttps://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/06/opening-statement-2024-06-05/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another new low for JPY as the Japanese government is shuffling up its top Finance Ministry people. Everyone continues to blame the Fed for the yen's crash but the evidence conclusively shows that's not it. This only raises the question, what is it? The yen's own track record holds the answer and it is one that applies to you.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters Japan names new FX diplomat as yen hits 38-year lowhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-appoints-atsushi-mimura-top-fx-diplomat-replacing-masato-kanda-2024-06-28/Reuters Japan warns against rapid FX moves, reiterates readiness for actionhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/japan-warns-against-rapid-fx-moves-reiterates-readiness-action-2024-06-24/Bloomberg Yen Falls Through 161 Per Dollar, Putting Intervention in Focushttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-28/yen-falls-through-161-per-dollar-as-intervention-wagers-increaseBarrons The Fed’s Higher for Longer Policy Is Breaking the Yenhttps://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-yen-b66308afhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Retail and Pharmacy giant Walgreens now says there won't be a second half rebound after all, not according to its view of the consumer economy. It was seconded by Levi's and then European behemoth H&M. All of that ties together with a record low in US pending home sales and a summer driving season that's already an enormous bust as recession forces bear down.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNBCNews Walgreens plans store closures as CEO says consumers 'stunned' by priceshttps://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/walgreens-plans-store-closures-ceo-says-consumers-stunned-prices-rcna159208CNBC Levi’s shares drop 15% as jeans maker’s sales disappoint despite denim crazehttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/26/levi-levi-earnings-q2-2024.htmlCNBC H&M plunges 13% on doubts over full-year margin target, June sales outlookhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/27/hm-plunges-12point5percent-on-doubts-over-full-year-margin-target-june-sales-outlook.htmlBloomberg US Pending Home Sales Index Slides to Record Low on High Rateshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-27/us-pending-home-sales-index-slides-to-record-low-on-high-rateshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

China's top central banker confirmed last week the intention to radically change the operations of the Peoples' Bank of China. Some have speculated this equates to an imminent QE, but that has nothing to do with the reform. We've seen this before. The issue is bank, not central bank. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBNP Implications of China's Impaired Transmission Mechanismhttps://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/api/files/f3e3ee55-9e19-455f-a1a6-08123581e2e9SCMP Xi Jinping to China’s central bank: restart treasury-bond trade, after 2-decade hiatushttps://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3256967/xi-jinping-chinas-central-bank-restart-treasury-bond-trade-after-2-decade-hiatusPan Gongsheng's speech at Shanghaihttp://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688172/5188125/5379416/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

There have been a whole bunch of ripples through the monetary system coming in from all angles pointing toward a sizable collateral disruption. The primary culprit(s) appears to be from Europe, starting in bond spreads surging off election uncertainty though we can't discount the ECB's rate cut as a factor. The eurodollar aftershocks are pronounced regardless of origin.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIOSCO Securities Lending Transactions: Market Development and Implicationshttps://www.bis.org/cpmi/publ/d32.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Japanese banks have been bulking up on US junk corporate credit for the last year, driven entirely by an increasingly difficult reach for yield. That means overlooking dangers and risks which in other less distorted times would have been taken more seriously. The end result is a large and growing distortion in a key part of the credit markets.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBank of Japan Financial System Report October 2019https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/brp/fsr/data/fsr191024a.pdfVanEck Looking Beyond AAA Rated CLOs Pays Offhttps://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/income-investing/looking-beyond-aaa-rated-clos-pays-off/Deutsche Bank What impact is 'higher for longer' having on the CLO market in 2024https://flow.db.com/trust-and-agency-services/what-impact-is-higher-for-longer-having-on-the-clo-market-in-2024Bloomberg A $1.3 Trillion Fund Pool for Junk-Rated US Firms Has Unlikely Lifeline: Japan's Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-20/the-1-3-trillion-clo-market-grows-more-dependent-on-japan-bankshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Copper and aluminum were soaring and so were reflation expectations for the global economy. If the world wasn't too careful, those might even lead to resurgent inflation. What's happening in those and other commodities has shocked market observers. As has the most recent global macro data. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Another CRE securitized structure is reportedly causing losses for its top tier, this one in another country and from a different corner of the real estate market. This matches recent reports that big banks are quietly beginning to sell their seniors in the space. Moreover, US homebuilder activity has plunged to new lows as the crosscurrents in the economy and financing are getting more unfavorable. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Pimco Warns of More Regional Bank Failures on Property Painhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-11/pimco-warns-of-more-regional-bank-failures-on-commercial-property-painBloomberg CMBS Buyers Face First Europe AAA Loss Since Credit Crunchhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-19/cmbs-buyers-set-for-first-europe-aaa-loss-since-credit-crunchBloomberg Losses Pile Up in Top-Rated Bonds Backed by Commercial Real Estate Debthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/cmbs-buyers-suffer-first-loss-on-aaa-debt-since-financial-crisisCREDiQ CRE CLO Distress Rate Widens to 9.74%https://cred-iq.com/blog/2024/06/14/cre-clo-distress-rate-widens-to-9-74/CREDiQ Loan Modifications Swell 195% in 12 Monthshttps://cred-iq.com/blog/2024/06/21/loan-modifications-swell-195-in-12-months-cred-iq/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

The Swiss National Bank surprised Economists by cutting rates for the second time in a row. Citing a number of potential worries starting with more recession, the rate cuts are aligned with growing dollar troubles roiling the rest of the world. Major currencies are sinking fast, hitting new lows and pointing toward the same reasoning just acted on in Switzerland. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg SNB Silence Sets Up Another Rate-Cut Cliffhangerhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-19/swiss-national-bank-interest-rate-cuts-central-bank-silence-sets-up-cliffhangerSwitzerland Economic forecast largely unchanged: Swiss growth in 2024 to be below averagehttps://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/media-releases.msg-id-101432.htmlSNB Monetary Policy Assessment June 20, 2024https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20240620CNBC Switzerland makes second interest rate cut as major economies diverge on monetary policy easinghttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/20/switzerland-trims-key-interest-rate-to-1point25percent-in-second-cut-of-the-year.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

A Japanese bank giant announced it was going to begin selling tens of BILLIONS in USTs and other European government bonds knowing full well the institution is going to take huge losses on the sales. Is this the start of another bank run? Will this kill the Treasury market? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisAbout Norinchukin Bankhttps://www.nochubank.or.jp/en/about/Norinchukin Financial Summary Fiscal Year 2023https://www.nochubank.or.jp/en/ir/results/pdf/cap_results2023_04_02.pdfBloomberg Echoes of 2009 Crisis Thrust Japanese Bank Norinchukin Back Into Spotlighthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-21/japan-s-bank-for-farmers-and-fishermen-returns-to-spotlight-for-overseas-lossesBloomberg Norinchukin Bank to Sell $63 Billion of Sovereign Bondshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-18/norinchukin-bank-to-sell-63-billion-of-bonds-to-stem-lossesBloomberg A $1.3 Trillion Fund Pool for Junk-Rated US Firms Has Unlikely Lifeline: Japan's Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-20/the-1-3-trillion-clo-market-grows-more-dependent-on-japan-banksFRBNY Standing Repo Facility Approved Counterpartieshttps://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/srflist-231201CBO Budget Update June 2024https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/60039-Outlook-2024.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

The data continues to pour in showing US consumers have indeed hit the wall. Spending is down according to a variety of sources, including the latest update on retail sales for May. There is also a growing body of evidence indicating there is more weakness to come starting with summer vacations. All this indicates the chances of full-blown recession are rising sharply. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNN Evidence is mounting that the American shopper is cutting backhttps://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/18/economy/us-retail-sales-may/index.htmlMcKinsey & Company An update on US consumer sentiment: Are consumers on the cusp of a shift?https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/the-state-of-the-us-consumerDeloitte Summer Travel Survey 2024https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/insights/articles/us187281_cic_summer-travel/DI_2024-summer-travel.pdfFederal Reserve Beige Book May 29, 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240529.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Housing prices in China plunged in May, accelerating sharply after April's big drop indicating the situation in the real estate market is getting closer to becoming disorderly. There will be fallout across the world should that happen, as there already is across China's economy as the latest data also showed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg China Real Estate, Production Slide Highlights More Stimulus Neededhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-06-17/world-economy-latest-china-property-sector-plunge-needs-more-supportChina's NBS Situation in Real Estatehttps://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202406/t20240617_1954711.htmlBloomberg China Steps Up Warning on Relentless Bond-Buying Frenzyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-17/china-steps-up-warnings-on-relentless-bond-buying-frenzyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Consumer confidence has dropped sharply over the past few months as Americans are now more concerned about jobs and incomes than prices. The shift has been so pronounced that even members of the mainstream media are questioning FOMC officials. Hardly strong and resilient, there's rising unemployment and declining confidence mixed with a bevy corporate warnings.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreFRB Chair Jay Powell Press Conference June 12, 2024https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqaxWf7gsQATranscript:https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20240612.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Conventional 'wisdom' says that when US$ interest rates go down the dollar goes down with them. Yet, it hasn't been uncommon to find Treasury yields falling as the dollar's exchange value jumps. When that has happened, nothing good comes from it. We're starting to see what looks to be that scenario setting up right now. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/ratesI said the payroll number is wrong and Jay Powell of all people agrees. But if the real question is how wrong, that's where the debate is even though it should already be settled. There is plenty of evidence the US is tilting in the direction of the HH Survey and unemployment rate. And that includes the rates market which ignored the FOMC's hawkish dots. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJay Powell's Press Conferencehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3ZE5tF_IMUCNBC Quotes from Jay Powell Press Conferencehttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/fed-meeting-today-live-updates-on-june-fed-rate-decision.htmlPolitico Biden’s economy: Good metrics, bad vibes, few levershttps://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/07/biden-has-an-economic-story-to-tell-and-yet-00162338Guardian Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Bidenhttps://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-bidenBLS Business Employment Dynamics Summaryhttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.nr0.htmTable 4'https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.t04.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/ratesWalgreens is the latest Big Name to cut prices because Americans have run out of money. As the company's prices go down, those will add even more to the disinflationary environment; and that's the bad side of smaller price changes. Today's May CPI completely backs up everything we've been seeing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWalgreens Walgreens Introduces Summer of Savingshttps://www.walgreensbootsalliance.com/news-media/press-releases/2024/walgreens-introduces-summer-savingsQuartz Amazon, Walmart, and Big Retail’s race to cut priceshttps://qz.com/target-walmart-amazon-walgreens-price-cuts-consumers-1851507920Bloomberg Big Oil’s Blockbuster $114 Billion Investor Payout Is Most Everhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/big-oil-pays-out-record-114-billion-in-share-buybacks-and-dividendshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Last week's ECB rate cut was...odd. Sure, officials had said for months they were going to do it. Yet, the conditions that would have to be met were not. Policymakers went ahead anyway and this past weekend's developments are a big Big Picture reason why. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Italy’s Tajani Calls for Quick Second ECB Cut After June Movehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/italy-s-tajani-calls-for-quick-second-ecb-cut-after-june-moveThe Times Back me for low interest rates, Rishi Sunak tells votershttps://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rishi-sunak-tories-interest-rates-general-election-962mpcmjxAP UK inflation lowest in 3 years. Prime Minister Sunak makes it a focus in election call for July 4https://apnews.com/article/britain-economy-inflation-interest-rates-090db19af939b9c532da1fb15ab40a0aLeMonde Moody's warns that France's snap election could lower credit ratinghttps://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/06/11/moody-s-warns-that-french-snap-election-could-lower-credit-rating_6674498_7.html#https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/ratesConsumer credit has historically been a solid recession signal, particularly how consumers alter their usage of credit cards. Some of that by choice, for many it is the bank's. Either way, when this happens it is more compelling evidence backing the rise in the unemployment rate.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSeptember 2008 FOMC Transcripthttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20080916meeting.pdfMarch 2001 FOMC Transcripthttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20010320meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Roaring Kitty is not the problem, nor is Gamestop the company and its stock. All are symptoms of a degraded model that increasingly rewards all the wrong behaviors. Stocks have become lottery tickets, the pie-in-the-sky way out for way too many Americans otherwise trapped in a real economy that continues to leave them behind - as the latest employment report proves. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreRoaring Kitty Livestream 6/7/2024https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1prSyyIco0&t=658sThe Hill GameStop shares plunge, halted during Roaring Kitty livestreamhttps://thehill.com/business/4710147-gamestop-shares-trading-roaring-kitty-livestream-meme-stock/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This has never happened before. Sure, the payroll data and CPS series have diverged before but this is something entirely new. The fact that it runs contrary to decades of history makes our determination rather easy and simple: the labor market noose is tightening. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Big US Job Gains Is Out of Sync With Recent Weaker Economic Datahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-06-07/us-employment-report-for-mayhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After two years unequivocally stating "inflation" was the world's biggest threat and crisis, and that nothing short of full victory would suffice, now all of a sudden Europe (and Canada) is changing it up, cutting rates even as price estimates remain well short of their standard while also appearing to be stuck that way. What is really going on here?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisECB Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2024/html/ecb.is240606~d32cd6cc8a.en.htmlBank of Canada Rate Cut Announcementhttps://www.bankofcanada.ca/multimedia/press-conference-policy-rate-announcement-june-2024/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

More labor market cracks are showing and expanding. Even some of the data which has been resilient may have to be substantially changed given new information that just came to light. Labor weakness continues to clear out the FOMC setting the Treasury market up the next rally - though it isn't quite there yet. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisADP National Employmenthttps://adpemploymentreport.com/ADP Pay Insightshttps://payinsights.adp.com/?_ga=2.165121663.1500609015.1717601960-340309474.1717601960BLS QCEW Overviewhttps://www.bls.gov/cew/overview.htmBLS QCEW https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewqtr.nr0.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

As more weak data pours in on the US economy, the more clarity it offers on the future path of ST interest rates. As that clears up, market rates are moving lower. But why? Mainstream theory demands we consider rates as entirely supply or demand factors (like QE). Yet, the past couple years have thoroughly disproven the idea. Rates are going lower because that's where and what the fundamentals are. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Majority of Middle-Class Americans Say They Struggle Financiallyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-04/two-thirds-of-middle-class-americans-face-hardship-in-poll?srnd=economics-v2https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A rare warning strikes the gasoline market in another confirmation of economic weakness, one primary factor which forced OPEC this past weekend to extend its production restrictions. On top of those, big changes to US income estimates further corroborating the deterioration, as did a surprise drop in one of the more critical sentiment signals.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters Weak US gasoline demand compounds pressure on oil ahead of OPEC+ meethttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/weak-us-gasoline-demand-compounds-pressure-oil-ahead-opec-meet-2024-05-31/Nikkei OPEC+ extends deep oil production cuts into 2025https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/OPEC-extends-deep-oil-production-cuts-into-2025ISM Manufacturing May 2024https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/may/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Weak economic results continue to roll in, matching other sources of information about the US economy. From the Federal Reserve's own account and data to more corporate reports. They all have one thing - and one word - in common. GDP revisions plus the first update on the state of GDI and its bigtime mismatch. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Tensions are rising. Aggressive actions are becoming commonplace. This isn't just sabre-rattling and posturing as war is a real possibility. It's not difficult to see why, at least what some of the motivation is. China's central bank is publicly discussing even more highly unusual steps to try to reign in the unfolding financial and economic backlash which was just confirmed by even more data. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Commander Warns China Is Fast Becoming More Aggressive in Regionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-23/us-commander-warns-china-is-fast-becoming-more-aggressive-in-regionBloomberg Xi’s Cryptic Bond Comments Hint at PBOC Becoming More Like Fedhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/xi-s-cryptic-bond-comments-hint-at-pboc-becoming-more-like-fedCNBC Philippine president says killing of a Filipino in South China Sea clash would be ‘very close’ to act of warhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/31/ferdinand-marcos-jr-philippine-president-talks-red-lines-in-south-china-sea.htmlBloomberg Marcos Swipes at China, Vowing Not to Yield in Disputed Seahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-31/marcos-swipes-at-beijing-in-vow-to-not-yield-in-south-china-seaBloomberg China Ramps Up Warning on Bond Frenzyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-31/china-ramps-up-warning-on-bond-frenzy-with-pboc-selling-in-focusDow Jones Chinese State Media Hint at Possible PBOC Bond Sellinghttps://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202405311908/chinese-state-media-hint-at-possible-pboc-bond-sellingNikkei Asia Foreign direct investment in China falls to 30-year lowhttps://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Foreign-direct-investment-in-China-falls-to-30-year-lowhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

More corporate mayhem brought on by the "uncertain market environment." Stocks of both Salesforce and Kohl's were hammered today as each company demonstrates in their own way just what the updated GDP numbers suggest. That latter data report also includes GDI which is almost certainly closer to the real economy all these other sources are projecting. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Salesforce shares tumble 20%, on pace for worst day since 2004https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/30/salesforce-stock-fall-earnings-revenue-miss.htmlBloomberg Salesforce Shares Plunge by Most Since 2008 After Weak Outlookhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/salesforce-gives-weak-sales-outlook-with-slowdown-fears-growingCNBC Kohl’s stock plummets 25% after massive earnings misshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/30/kohls-kss-earnings-q1-2024.htmlKohl's Kohl's Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2024 Financial Resultshttps://investors.kohls.com/news-releases/news-details/2024/Kohls-Reports-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2024-Financial-Results/default.aspxBEA Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary)https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2024-second-estimate-and-corporate-profitshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

More CRE developments today and last week this time with a focus on Europe. New reports indicate losses are coming soon and data from the ECB shows why there are so many concerns. We also have the latest bank lending figures which show more troubling signs under the cover of 'extend and pretend.'Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisECB Commercial real estate and financial stability – new insights from the euro area credit registerhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/macroprudential-bulletin/html/ecb.mpbu202210_4~0aa7d44e15.en.htmlReuters Explainer: European banks and their $1.5 trillion commercial property headachehttps://www.reuters.com/business/finance/european-banks-their-15-trillion-commercial-property-headache-2024-02-15/S&P Global Investors expect surge in bad commercial real estate loans at European bankshttps://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/investors-expect-surge-in-bad-commercial-real-estate-loans-at-european-banks-81618608FitchRatings Global Contagion Risk Growing from Rising CRE Losses, Led by Officehttps://www.fitchratings.com/research/non-bank-financial-institutions/global-contagion-risk-growing-from-rising-cre-losses-led-by-office-02-04-2024https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

More data released today which shows the US economy has taken a turn for the worse. Consumers are running out of options and are turning in huge proportions to alternate means to stay afloat. One of those alternatives, however, is being closed off as the American banks are now actively cutting back risk while going on a buying binge for safety. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysisnerdwallet 2024 State of Consumer Credit Reporthttps://www.nerdwallet.com/article/credit-cards/2024-consumer-credit-reportCNBC 25% of consumers recently used a buy now, pay later loan, report finds. What to know as they become popularhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/28/buy-now-pay-later-loans-are-second-only-to-credit-cards-in-popularity.htmlFRBNY HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORT (Q1 2024)https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdchttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What's misinformation about the economy? It's a well-known fact policymakers and Economists outright lie about any situation. But why? They say it's for your own good. The lies are beginning to pile up so much that officials now have to lie about their lies, including the very theory behind all of this especially when some of the theoreticians who came up with it no longer want to be the very purveyors of misinformation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisGeorge DeMartino Should Economists Deceive? Prosocial Lying, Paternalism, and the ‘Ben Bernanke Problem’https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1256&context=peri_workingpapersDeLong & Summers How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1988/06/1988b_bpea_delong_summers_mankiw_romer.pdfBrad DeLong Greater Depressionhttps://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/j--bradford-delong-argues-that-it-is-time-to-call-what-is-happening-in-europe-and-the-us-by-its-true-nameBank of England Ben Bernanke to lead review into forecasting at Bank of Englandhttps://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2023/july/ben-bernanke-to-lead-review-into-forecasting-at-bank-of-englandBank of England Forecasting for monetary policy making and communication at the Bank of England: a reviewhttps://www.bankofengland.co.uk/independent-evaluation-office/forecasting-for-monetary-policy-making-and-communication-at-the-bank-of-england-a-review/forecasting-for-monetary-policy-making-and-communication-at-the-bank-of-england-a-reviewMervyn King Per Jacobsson Lecture: The World Turned Upside Down: Economic Policy in Turbulent Timeshttps://meetings.imf.org/en/2019/Annual/Schedule/2019/10/19/imf-seminar-per-jacobssonhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It doesn't help that policymakers and Economists quite openly admit they will and even should lie to you about the state of the economy. But to go so far as to call legitimate and widely-shared criticism misinformation is taking this too far. The reason it is going this way is just how difficult the situation has become, which brings us back to the first point: who's actually telling the truth?Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van MetreShould Economists Deceive? Prosocial Lying, Paternalism, and the ‘Ben Bernanke Problem’https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1256&context=peri_workingpapersFoxNews Democrat claiming 'inflation rates are down' interrupted by higher than expected inflation reporthttps://www.foxnews.com/media/democrat-claiming-inflation-rates-down-interrupted-higher-expected-inflation-reportThe Undecideds What Are Undecided Voters Really Thinking?https://markhalperin.substack.com/p/what-are-undecided-voters-reallyBloomberg Fed’s Bostic Says Policy Is Taking Longer to Slow Growthhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/fed-s-bostic-says-policy-is-taking-longer-to-slow-growthhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After months of silence, a couple of critical developments from the beleaguered commercial real estate sector show up all at once. For the first time since the Global not-Financial Crisis, a senior tranche of a CLO took losses - a lot of losses - while redemptions threaten to force liquidations at one of the spaces more important CRE funds. Not good first signs for the bubble unwind.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg A Really Bad Sign for Commercial Real Estatehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-05-23/bloomberg-evening-briefing-a-really-bad-sign-for-commercial-real-estateBloomberg Starwood’s $10 Billion REIT Turns to Survival Mode as Real Estate Pain Lingershttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/starwood-reit-sets-drastic-redemption-limits-on-liquidity-crunchBloomberg Lenders Race to Buy Back Delinquent Multifamily Mortgage Loanshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/jpmorgan-says-commercial-real-estate-clo-loan-buyouts-are-set-to-reach-a-recordFitch Global Contagion Risk Growing from Rising CRE Losses, Led by Officehttps://www.fitchratings.com/research/non-bank-financial-institutions/global-contagion-risk-growing-from-rising-cre-losses-led-by-office-02-04-2024https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

On top of dumping Treasuries (which I covered in detail in a previous video https://youtu.be/j00_S1iug9c), China's also dumping its excess production on the rest of the world. The tactic has become so pervasive governments worldwide are responding with more than idle threats. But what are they really worried about given this means cheaper stuff and lower prices? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisRemarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen at Press Conference Ahead of the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meetingshttps://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2363Reuters Yellen wants G7 'wall of opposition' to China's excess industrial capacityhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/yellen-says-g7-discuss-responses-chinas-excess-industrial-capacity-2024-05-23/Treasury Secretary Yellen on PBShttps://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/treasury-secretary-yellen-on-why-biden-is-targeting-chinese-manufacturing-with-new-tariffshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU