Eurodollar University

A plunge in Chicago kicks off more concerns over the global car business. Layoffs and plant closures keep coming as automakers are having enormous difficulties first aligning their businesses with the lack of recovery. On top of that, more indications beside Chicago pour in showing falling cyclical demand for cars, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters Europe's embattled auto sector plans plant closures and layoffshttps://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/europes-embattled-auto-sector-plans-plant-closures-layoffs-2024-12-02/InsideEVs Honda's CEO Struggles To Explain Why Nissan Merger Makes Sensehttps://insideevs.com/news/745625/honda-nissan-merger-struggling-reason/Japan trade https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/shinbun/trade-st_e/2024/2024115e.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The biggest surprise of 2024 wasn't any election results nor was it the fact central banks worldwide are more desperately accelerating rate cuts as the year draws to close. Or that other governments and officials are resorting to increasing panicky measures to calm markets in their areas. What caught everyone so off guard about '24 was the one outcome that stands behind all of those things. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIMF WEO January 2024https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/01/30/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After facing a major setback, the Reserve Bank of India has ditched its longshot desperation tactic aimed at 'speculators' betting against the rupee. They aren't the problem, the fundamentals are - global fundamentals. There is a lot INR has to say about those as it becomes the latest to plunge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBusiness Standard RBI dials down use of NDFs to fight dollar, balance rupee stabilityhttps://www.business-standard.com/finance/news/rbi-dials-down-use-of-ndfs-to-fight-dollar-balance-rupee-stability-124121800613_1.htmlBusiness Standard RBI asks some lenders to reduce speculative positions against rupeehttps://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/reserve-bank-asks-some-lenders-to-cut-speculative-bets-against-rupee-124112200628_1.htmlBusiness Standard Rupee falls to new low of 85.27 as importers stock up dollar at month endhttps://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/rupee-falls-to-new-low-of-85-27-as-importers-stock-up-dollar-at-month-end-124122600861_1.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

More indications of substantial problems for American workers - they can't find any jobs. But why? Moreover, what will it take to get this major hiring freeze to thaw? It isn't rate cuts or lower rates. Nor does it appear the election has worked, either. Consumers plunged back into fears over jobs and incomes in December.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNBC News From 'Great Resignation' to 'Great Detachment': How the U.S. job market has slowedhttps://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/hard-to-find-a-job-get-hired-why-november-2024-jobs-report-rcna183102Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Pulled Back in Decemberhttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidencehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Major shift in the Treasury curve with a critical spread uninverting for the first time in years. Bonds and central banks are on the move, which leaves some of Treasury market going the wrong way. And the only reason is Jay Powell. From swaps to other bonds, even something called term premia, the Fed is in the dark while bonds are lighting up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRBNY Term Premia calculationshttps://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data_indicators/term-premia-tabs#/interactiveBloomberg Treasury ‘Term Premium’ Gauge Positive for First Time Since 2021https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-27/treasury-term-premium-gauge-positive-for-first-time-since-2021https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

LT Chinese bond rates have been falling fast for a while. Over the last two weeks, ST yields have completely collapsed; most of it last week, too. Why? Maybe more important, why now? The mainstream answer to either one is total nonsense and easily debunked from the September bazooka. What does that leave? Possibly an old familiar name. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Chinese Regulator Asks Insurers to Report Vanke Debt Holdingshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/chinese-regulator-asks-insurers-to-report-vanke-debt-holdingshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

According to the latest conventional 'wisdom' - which changes with each and every CPI report and FOMC dot adjustment - inflation is back and so is the soft landing. The most recent update from the labor market says that's entirely backward. Job findings have utterly plunged right when the jobs market reaches that 'magical' unemployment inflection spot on this critical curve. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There's more to the Brazil story, especially since Brazil's story isn't strictly about Brazil. With markets there spiraling into chaos, the government is down to blaming 'speculators.' If that's the case, then speculation has gone global in a lot of critical ways. From currencies to job findings plunging, even something real like the Baltic Dry which is crashing now, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Brazil Central Bank Rejects Doubts Over Power of Monetary Policyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-19/brazil-central-bank-rejects-doubts-over-monetary-policyBloomberg Brazil Traders ‘Sell First, Ask Later’ as Panic Hits Marketshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-17/brazil-traders-sell-first-ask-later-as-panic-sweeps-marketsFT Warren Buffett's record cash pile is starting to make people nervoushttps://financialpost.com/financial-times/warren-buffett-cash-pile-investors-nervousBloomberg Brazil Finance Chief Says Real May Be Under ‘Speculative Attack’https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/brazil-finance-chief-says-real-may-be-under-speculative-attackBloomberg Brazil Spends $17 Billion in Reserves to Lift Cratering Realhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/central-bank-burns-17-billion-in-reserves-to-lift-brazil-s-realBloomberg Brazil’s Wealthy Lament Political Dysfunction as Fortunes Tumblehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/brazil-s-richest-people-lament-political-dysfunction-as-fortunes-tumblehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

While everyone is hanging on the Fed and the FOMC's indecision about how many rate cuts next year, there are currency crises - plural - beginning to break out in key places. One of those is Brazil where it has gotten so dangerous the country's central bank is now regularly intervening in FX spot markets. What's really going on here? The black hole is angry.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Stocks tanked, bond yields soared, the dollar jumped. All because the Fed doesn't know what it's going to do now? Partly, yeah. There's a lot more to the story, however. Given the tortuous road to rate cuts, it wasn't suddenly going to become smooth sailing now that they've started. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Canada. France. Germany. What do they have in common? Central banks in each are cutting rates. Also, their governments have either collapsed or, Canada, about to. Why? Same reason there are rate cuts. It's not ideology nor really partisanship. It's the economy, stupid. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Canada finance minister quits after clash with Trudeau, deals blow to governmenthttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/16/canada-finance-minister-quits-after-clash-with-trudeau-deals-blow-to-government-.htmlToronto Sun Trudeau says economy is great, Canadians can see truthhttps://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/trudeau-says-economy-is-great-canadians-can-see-truthBloomberg French Growth Prospects Slow as Political Uncertainty Weighshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-16/france-s-growth-prospects-weaken-as-political-uncertainty-weighsCNBC France’s new prime minister gets a baptism of fire after surprise Moody’s downgradehttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/16/frances-new-prime-minister-installed-hours-before-moodys-downgrade.htmlNYT German Government Collapses at a Perilous Time for Europehttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/world/europe/germany-confidence-vote-scholz-snap-election.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Interest rates worldwide are hanging at the edge of a cliff. It may not seem like it from the current focus on the Fed and the possible pause in its rate cutting. This doesn't mean other central bank rate cuts, either. Instead, two very critical signals have absolutely plunged just in the past few days. Record lows in both are far more relevant than Jay Powell. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The dollar continues to threaten to make a big move higher. Not only is the main dollar index right at the top end of its multi-year range, the buck is creating big problems for major currencies. The more other central banks or authorities struggle to contain the fallout, the greater the chance for that breakout. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Update on T-bills. Last week's wild auctions repeated this week, only with flipped maturities. Other related data confirm the sharp demand as well as dealer participation in it. We discuss the implications plus dig into the reason why collateral is so important to begin with, and also why we don't know nearly enough about what's going on. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWEBINAR REPLAY, w/SPECIAL GUEST JIM RICKARDShttps://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/26/7y53nc7mb44azzawFRBNY Primary Dealer Statisticshttps://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/counterparties/primary-dealers-statisticsIOSCO Securities Lending Transactions: Market Development and Implicationshttps://www.iosco.org/library/pubdocs/pdf/IOSCOPD96.pdfOFR Why Is So Much Repo Not Centrally Cleared?https://www.financialresearch.gov/briefs/files/OFRBrief_23-01_Why-Is-So-Much-Repo-Not-Centrally-Cleared.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Swiss shock - again. Now fearing outright deflation and over the next six months, SNB pulls the trigger on a fifty. Back in March, amidst the "sticky" "inflation" freakout, when the SNB was the first central bank to begin cutting rates it was a warning to other central bankers and the rest of the world what was coming wasn't more "inflation." OPEC concurs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWEBINAR REPLAY, w/SPECIAL GUEST JIM RICKARDShttps://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/26/7y53nc7mb44azzawSNB policy statementhttps://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20241212CNBC Swiss National Bank takes leap with 50-basis-point interest rate cut amid franc strengthhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/swiss-national-bank-takes-leap-with-50-basis-point-interest-rate-cut-amid-franc-strength.htmlChair Jerome H. Powell At the "Conference on Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications Practices" sponsored by the Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, Illinoishttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20190604a.htmBloomberg Franc Drop Seen Short-Lived With SNB Running Out of Room to Cuthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-12/swiss-franc-falls-to-two-week-low-affter-half-point-snb-rate-cutBloomberg OPEC Makes Deepest Cut Yet to 2024 World Oil Demand Forecasthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-11/opec-makes-deepest-cut-yet-to-2024-world-oil-demand-forecastCNBC OPEC+ oil output delay a ‘reality check’ as group eyes demand, U.S. outlook, Saudi energy min sayshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/06/opec-oil-output-delay-a-reality-check-as-group-eyes-demand-saudi.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Here comes Chinese central bank bond buying, but this is no QE. A report surfaced in China Daily strongly implying the Chinese government is beyond just exploring something called money-financed fiscal expansion. We'll go over what that is, how it is different from QE, and what the real takeaway is. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChina Daily Unconventional monetary steps eyedhttps://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202412/11/WS6758cfcca310f1265a1d2293.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Canada's official unemployment rate jumped in November, reaching its highest level since 2016 (outside 2020). And that was only the beginning. Given how highly synchronized US Treasury rates are with Canadian government bonds, not to mention the Fed and the Bank of Canada, we expect a lot of similarities in the real economy. This one is getting to be uncomfortably close. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWebinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlYahoo!finance Canada's interest rates will likely fall. Where will they end up?https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadas-interest-rates-will-likely-fall-where-will-they-end-up-150459864.htmlCBC Jobless rate reaches 6.8% in November, highest since 2017, excluding pandemichttps://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jobs-unemployment-november-1.7403156Bloomberg Canada Jobless Rate Jumps to 6.8%, Raising Odds of Big Cuthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-06/canada-jobless-rate-jumps-to-6-8-raising-odds-of-big-cutFinancial Post Canada's unemployment rate rises to 6.8%, raising odds of jumbo interest rate cuthttps://financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-unemployment-rate-rises-to-6-8https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China's top government body, the politburo, attempted to reignite the "stimulus" sentiment with another wordy communication chock full of more promises and platitudes. To begin with, this doesn't bode very well for the "bazooka." Global market reaction wasn't what Beijing was looking for, either. Even stocks and Economists. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWebinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlSCMP China’s consumer inflation hits 5-month low, leaves room for more stimulushttps://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3289917/chinas-consumer-inflation-falls-short-november-factory-price-drag-continuesBloomberg China Signals Bolder Stimulus for Next Year as Trump Returnshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-09/china-shifts-monetary-policy-stance-for-first-time-since-2011https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The BLS labor data had a chance to show that October's weakness really was just a combination of one-off factors, instead did everything to confirm that it wasn't those at all. That includes the headline payroll number, too. Unemployment is up and, when you properly account for everyone, up A LOT. Just like Canada.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metresign up for the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Wild week for a market that's supposed to be boring and go unnoticed. For the second straight month, heavy buying in bills right ahead of the payroll report. Except, in this case, buyers went utterly crazy for the 8-week bill in one of the most incredible bill auctions. But what is all this mess about? Yen, securities lending, and recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim RickardsSign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Recessions are a process and what past episodes all have in common is one key ingredient. Rather, one element that comes up missing every time. This critical factor doesn't just end up being the difference between downturn and full-blown contraction, it also turns a recession into a depression. And we've got the data for it plus how 2024 fits into the pattern. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisRobert Shimer Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemploymenthttps://home.uchicago.edu/shimer/wp/reassess.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Christmas shopping season is off to a poor start, with dim results coming in from various sources showing lower traffic and slower spending. The reason is easy enough to identify, starting with the latest labor report from the government. Hiring fell sharply before summer and never came back, all of that leading up to the holidays.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim RickardsSign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlBloomberg Tally of US Shoppers Slipped During Key Holiday Weekendhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-03/tally-of-us-shoppers-slipped-during-key-holiday-weekendCSA Cyber Monday online sales hit new record of $13.3 billionhttps://chainstoreage.com/cyber-monday-online-sales-hit-new-record-133-billionInvesting.com US JOLTs Job Openings Surpass Forecasts, Indicating Stronger Labor Markethttps://za.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-jolts-job-openings-surpass-forecasts-indicating-stronger-labor-market-93CH-3450582Observer.com ‘Ghost Jobs’ Are on the Rise—And They Are Hurting More Than Just Job Huntershttps://observer.com/2024/06/ghost-job-rise-labor-data/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After a weekend of disappointing macro data (which was characterized as "mixed"), China's markets tanked. Not stocks, of course, instead more record lows in bonds plus a very sharp drop in CNY. As we know only too well, CNY DOWN = BAD and yuan is right back near multi-year lows. It's not the only one, either. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim RickardsSign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlBloomberg China’s Factory Activity Expands in Sign of Slow Recoveryhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-30/china-s-factory-activity-continues-expansion-in-sign-of-recoveryBloomberg China’s 10-Year Yield Sinks to Record Low on Bets PBOC Will Easehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-02/china-s-10-year-yield-is-heading-toward-record-2-on-easing-betsBloomberg China Skips Politburo Readout as Investors Await Stimulushttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-02/china-skips-politburo-readout-as-investors-await-stimulus-cluesBloomberg China Home Sales Drop Again as Sustained Stimulus Effect Missinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-30/china-home-sales-drop-again-as-sustained-stimulus-effect-missinghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

European banks have added a massive amount of government bonds to their holdings. At the same time, they refuse to lend into the real economy. Europe's depositories are hardly alone as we see the same defensive behavior all over the global system. There is only one reason why they all have become so incredibly defensive. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreWEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim RickardsSign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlBlack Friday/Cyber Monday Sale at Eurodollar Universityhttps://www.eurodollar.university/black-fridayhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

India's RBI just recently has gone *massively* short the US dollar and in the NDF market, too, just to keep the crumbling rupee from sinking even more. This won't work exposing the central bank to losses and also potentially amplifying the downdraft in the currency. A big update on the fundamentals explains.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg India Plows Into NDF Market as It Fights Back Against Dollarhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/india-plows-into-ndf-market-as-it-fights-back-against-dollarBloomberg India’s Growth Shocker Puts Pressure on RBI to Cut Rateshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/india-s-economic-growth-weakens-to-almost-two-year-lowBloomberg India’s Falling Wages Squeeze Urban Middle Class and Economyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/india-s-falling-wages-squeezes-urban-middle-class-and-economyBloomberg RBI Inquiries on Liquidity Spur Speculation of Action Next Weekhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/rbi-inquiries-on-liquidity-spur-speculation-of-action-next-weekhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

An entire batch of corporate reports from retailers to computer-makers, just in time for the key holiday season's critical moment. Each one warning that consumers in the US just aren't there, being held back. Why? The government also reported today with the answer to that question, the one factor that ties it all together. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Inflation-Battered Consumers Are Going to Extreme Lengths to Nab Holiday Dealshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-27/black-friday-deals-in-us-have-been-transformed-by-inflationBloomberg Kohl’s Troubles Deepen as Retailers Call Out Weak Spendinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-26/kohl-s-cuts-sales-outlook-on-weaker-spending-on-clothes-shoesCNBC Retailers saw a dismal fall quarter. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/consumers-retailers-post-election-economic-outlook-rcna181794CNBC HP forecasts first-quarter profit below estimates on sluggish demand in PC markethttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/26/hp-earnings-report-q4-2024.htmlBloomberg Dell and HP Inc. Fall After Reporting Disappointing PC Saleshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-26/dell-reports-sales-that-miss-estimates-on-setback-for-pc-markethttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Japan's yen has diverged from other currencies over the past few weeks, strengthening against the dollar. That suggests more carry trading dynamics, an interplay between different versions of them. Yes, there is more than one carry trade and understanding the distinctions is key to getting a sense of possible vulnerabilities here.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim RickardsSign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlReuters Explainer: What are Japan's tactics based on latest suspected intervention?https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/what-are-japans-tactics-based-latest-suspected-intervention-2024-07-18BIS Bulletin The market turbulence and carry trade unwind of August 2024https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull90.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Several critical financial measures continue to drop, reaching rather obscene comparisons. At first, that doesn't seem to make any sense; how would today be seen as similar to February 2009, for example. However difficult the economy is now, it certainly isn't that bad. What these measures are indicating go beyond specific moments, instead providing clues about a progression. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim RickardsSign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Is the bond selloff over? What caused it in the first place? With European rates, in particular, heading lower on recession (more than) risks, the tendency of Treasuries to converge with them raises the chances yields may not have much farther to go if they aren't topped out already. Given the fundamental background, it appears to be a matter of time more than anything. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The European situation is getting to be truly serious. And that means growing problems for...the dollar. Not the exchange value against other currencies, rather why that exchange value is rising and how trouble in Europe means trouble in global money. European banks have been back in a big way at the black hole's center. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisPresident Ford Economic Report to Congress 1975https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/sites/default/files/books/presidential-documents-archive-guidebook/the-economic-report-of-the-president-truman-1947-obama-2017/1975.pdfECB Financial Stability Reviewhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/fsr/ecb.fsr202411~dd60fc02c3.en.pdfECB Euro area banks as intermediators of US dollar liquidity via repo and FX swap marketshttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/focus/2024/html/ecb.fsrbox202411_04~9a4d04b582.en.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China and Japan selling record amounts of Treasuries. Do they hate the dollar? Donald Trump? You and me? Not only will we answer the questions, while those countries saw huge selling of USTs, curiously the Cayman Islands got a truly massive deposit of them and it showed up during July, August and September. Seems very carry trade-y. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A double whammy on US consumers. First, the government issued an alarming update to the biggest jobs data there is. Then retail giant Target stunned with its Q3 results and more so its guidance for Q4. The thing is, both of those are related; two sides of the macro coin. The one says the summer started really badly, the other it didn't get better. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters Target raises 2024 profit forecast as price cuts draw shoppershttps://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/target-raises-annual-profit-forecast-after-price-cuts-boost-quarterly-sales-2024-08-21/CNBC Target shares plunge 20% after discounter cuts forecast, posts biggest earnings miss in two yearshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/target-tgt-q3-2024-earnings.htmlBloomberg Target Shares Tumble After Retailer Cuts Profit Outlookhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-20/target-tgt-trims-profit-outlook-on-inventory-buildup-higher-costsCNN As Americans bargain shop, six-figure earners flock to Walmarthttps://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/investing/walmart-stock-earnings/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Warren Buffett continues to sell tens of billions worth of stocks. Everyone wants to know why. This divergence between major stock index most likely holds the answer. Normally stock indexes don't mean much beyond their beauty, yet they can be important signals at times like now when they do diverge in such an obvious and sustained way. This is a key cyclical one, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Berkshire Hathaway’s cash fortress tops $300 billion as Buffett sells more stock, freezes buybackshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/02/berkshire-hathaways-cash-fortress-tops-300-billion-as-buffett-sells-more-stock-freezes-buybacks.htmlFranklin-Templeton https://www.franklintempleton.com/articles/equity-markets/the-foundry-quandary-owning-semis-late-in-the-cycleDeloitte Industry Outlookhttps://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/technology-media-and-telecommunications/articles/semiconductor-industry-outlook.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Federal Reserve reported a sharp rise in delinquencies, especially credit cards and auto loans. That wasn't all, as the New York branches also showed record high rejections strongly indicating where things really stand in the credit cycle. As a result, we have to pay some attention to CRTs, otherwise known as SRTs, the latest financial engineering akin to the 2020s version of credit default swaps. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRBNY Household Debt and Credit Report Q3 2024https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.htmlBloomberg Ally Auto Borrowers With 2022 Loans Now Struggling, CFO Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-07/ally-auto-borrowers-with-2022-loans-now-struggling-cfo-saysBloomberg Ally’s Charge-Offs, Bad-Loan Provisions Beat Expectationshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-17/auto-lender-ally-reports-stronger-than-expected-debt-managementFederal Reserve Frequently Asked Questions about Regulation Qhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/legalinterpretations/reg-q-frequently-asked-questions.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another retailer finds out the 2021 "recovery" was mostly an illusion. Prices may have soared and revenues looking good, it didn't last because it couldn't. As the company closes hundreds of stores and prepares to lay off an unknown number of workers, more stats show this is no isolated case. The cycle continues and continues to take its toll on businesses and workers alike. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

The yen and the euro are good currency indicators of global monetary conditions, but there are a couple even better and more consistent signals. When the 'dollar' goes up and these two are taking the hit because of it, that's when you really need to pay attention. It's not Trump, Jay Powell, interest rates or just random chance. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The dollar index jumped to a more than two-year high leaving everyone to ask why. Some say Trump, others the Fed. They might as well have said it was Burger King (who blames Wendy's). Though the dollar is rising here in the short run, to really understand what's going on you have to consider more than just developments in November 2024. This has been in the works for several years. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters US dollar continues uptrend as Fed policy provides lifthttps://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-over-two-month-high-yen-near-150dlr-2024-10-15/Bloomberg Wall Street Sees Dollar Soaring More, But Splits on How Muchhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-12/dollar-s-trump-fueled-rally-unites-wall-street-on-bullish-betshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After Germany's governing coalition collapsed last week, the country's ZEW added more solid evidence about why that was. The ZEW also collapsed into November. That's not just about Germany since the "zoo" is really what the rest of the world looks like from the German perspective. That also has a lot to say about the ongoing Treasury selloff (just like April).Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisZEW November 2024https://www.zew.de/en/press/latest-press-releases/falling-economic-expectations-after-trump-victoryBloomberg German Investor Confidence Slumps on Political Strife, Trump Winhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-12/german-investor-confidence-slumps-on-political-strife-trump-winhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The economic challenges the incoming Trump administration is facing are far and away greater than those confronted in 2016. From the cyclical standpoint, 2024 has far more in common with 2001. While structurally, there's nothing close to this in generations. Amidst the election euphoria there needs to be sober analysis. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Repo fails jumped by 50% in the latest weekly data, which just so happens to be the same week swap spreads plunged to record lows. It was also when the US economy, at least its labor data, took a turn for the worse. Understanding the connections between all these money and macro indications is critical. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFinancial Times New York Fed examines banks’ role in money market turmoilhttps://www.ft.com/content/83a5bb70-dbca-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17FOMC Chair Powell Press Conference Transcript October 2019https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20191030.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Credit card usage isn't really about spending. Americans use their credit cards when they're confident about jobs and incomes. The latest data from the Fed contains a more serious warning especially how it lines up with jobs and income data...and the Fed's actions. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Is there era of massive government "stimulus" finally over? Bonds are certain it is. The Chinese are doing their best to make sure that's the result, in large part because they don't know what to do. That much is becoming clear and the implications are already going global. Just ask anyone with oil.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg China Unveils $1.4 Trillion Debt Swap, Saves Stimulus for Trumphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-08/china-unveils-839-billion-debt-swap-to-rescue-local-governmentsBloomberg China Debt Plan Underwhelms Bond Market Betting on More Stimulushttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-08/china-bond-market-eyes-fiscal-plans-from-key-legislative-meetinghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Germany's government is the latest casualty of the "vibecession." Amid a flurry of political activity, the markets throw up another major warning with the first ever negative swap spread. Predictably, the mainstream media can't make sense of swaps, the situation, or the economics. It's the economy, stupid. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Germany’s Government Puts Itself Out of Its Miseryhttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-07/germany-s-coalition-government-puts-itself-out-of-its-miseryBloomberg Fear of German Debt Binge Flips Key Market Gauge for First Timehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-07/fear-of-german-debt-binge-flips-key-market-gauge-for-first-timeBloomberg Scholz Sees Germany Riding Out War in Ukraine Without Recessionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-01-17/german-chancellor-olaf-scholz-on-2023-economic-outlook-war-in-ukrainehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Huge moves, major negatives, and record declines for one of the most critical pieces of the entire global system. While election euphoria has gripped certain financial markets, this one is doing the opposite. It is a key warning about where everything stands before even considering whether or not Trump's victory changes anything. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Demand for gasoil, the basic fuel which runs the entire modern world, is actually declining. Having stumbled over the summer, this exceptionally rare development is another really negative sign to go with, relatedly, even more production and job cuts across the auto industry. Energy, autos, economy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Diesel Set For Growing Glut as Demand Faltershttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-05/diesel-set-for-growing-glut-as-demand-faltersWorld Bank Commodity Markets Outlookhttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/bbda9ad3-4f12-4626-ad4b-94a4d20fbd52/contentBloomberg OPEC Cuts Global Oil Demand Growth Forecasts for Third Consecutive Monthhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-14/opec-cuts-global-oil-demand-growth-forecasts-for-third-consecutive-monthOPEC June 2https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7339.htmOPEC Sept 5https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7369.htmOPEC Nov 3https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7409.htmBloomberg Even Some High-Income Americans Can’t Afford New Cars Anymorehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-04/soaring-2024-new-car-prices-turn-more-buyers-toward-used-vehiclesNikkei Nissan cutting production of main U.S. models by 30%https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Nissan-cutting-production-of-main-U.S.-models-by-30Guru Focus Nissan Cuts Production Amid Declining U.S. Demand, Threatening Global Sales Goalshttps://www.gurufocus.com/news/2582356/nissan-cuts-production-amid-declining-us-demand-threatening-global-sales-goalsEuroNews Thousands of jobs to go at German car parts maker Schaefflerhttps://www.euronews.com/business/2024/11/05/thousands-of-jobs-to-go-at-german-car-parts-maker-schaefflerhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Why are interest rates rising at one end of the yield at the same time falling on the opposite side? With more recession data coming in all the time, starting with payrolls, it seems as though there should be a uniform response from the marketplace. But that's not how steepening works. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWashington PostHouse Passes Bush Tax Cuthttps://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2001/03/09/house-passes-bush-tax-cut/99152799-f156-414f-82c4-bed4fca05bb3/Time ‘The Worst Is Over’https://time.com/archive/6917914/the-worst-is-over/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

October payrolls were exceptionally weak, yet LT rates jump? With more rate cuts from the Fed basically assured, questions swirl around the Treasury selloff having many people wondering if there is a 'Trump trade' going on here. The answers are right there in front of us.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This isn't about October or hurricanes. Government just confirmed jobs market is in big f-ing trouble. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBLS Employment Situation October 2024https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_11012024.pdfCNN Messy October jobs report muddied by strikes and storms ahead of Election Day https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-october-11-01-24/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The government's latest data confirms the dramatic slowdown sweeping across the labor market. We've been documenting hours being cut, quitters quitting quits, no one hiring, and now even a few layoffs. Not only do the latest figures back all that up, they also help explain consumer behavior and even the last GDP estimate. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Ford guides to low end of 2024 earnings forecast as it slightly tops Wall Street’s third-quarter expectationshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/28/ford-motor-f-earnings-q3-2024.htmlFord Q3 https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2024/10/28/third-quarter-2024-financial-results.htmlChallenger Gray & Christmas October 2024https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-fall-in-october-2024-but-ytd-up-4-from-last-year/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU