Eurodollar University

Warren Buffett continues to sell stocks. But it's not just disposing of stocks, which ones. At the same time, even Wall Street is beginning to take note of the dangers over dramatic complacency in risk markets like junk credit along with stocks. With both marketplaces waiting for a recession each recognizes, they're being eroded by the one we already have. That could very well explain why the selling continued at Berkshire. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFortune Buffett sold more BofA stock while keeping Apple stake intacthttps://fortune.com/2025/02/14/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-bank-of-america-stock-apple-stake-q4/Berkshire Hathaway 13-Fhttps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000095012325002701/xslForm13F_X02/39042.xmlBloomberg Junk Bond Guru Sees Rising Distress Ahead as Banks Tighten Lendinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-15/junk-bond-guru-fridson-sees-rising-distress-ahead-credit-weeklyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

From the outside, everything that could have gone wrong for bonds did. CPI. PPI. Auctions. Hawks. You name it. Despite all that, what bond yields did instead points to deeper fundamentals that are never talked about by mainstream sources - including the new Treasury Secretary. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Amazon warned the start of 2025 was rough, and boy was it. Government data on consumer spending as well goods production came in exactly that way. And while extreme winter weather played a role in each one, it was clearly the opposite of what everyone says. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNYT Amazon Says Profits Rose 88% but Cautions Growth May Slowhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/06/technology/amazon-earnings-profits.htmlCNN US retail spending plunged last month, falling for the first time since Augusthttps://www.cnn.com/2025/02/14/economy/us-retail-spending-january/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

India has suffered a major currency drop, serious interbank liquidity problems, one of the largest central bank FX interventions in its history, a stock rout, and, for good measure, the third of three straight negative CPIs. And that's just the last four days. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg India Central Bank Punishes Rupee Speculators in Surprise Movehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-11/india-central-bank-intervenes-to-curb-speculative-rupee-betsReters Indian central bank hikes overnight fund infusion post heavy FX interventionhttps://www.reuters.com/business/finance/indian-central-bank-infuse-record-overnight-funds-post-heavy-fx-intervention-2025-02-12/Bloomberg Modi Returns to US With Lost Clout as Stock, Economic Boom Fadeshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-12/modi-returns-to-us-with-lost-clout-as-stock-economic-boom-fadesBloomberg Indian Stocks Trim Losses as Dip Buying Provides Respitehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-12/indian-stocks-slump-to-lowest-since-june-as-global-funds-fleehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Shocker of a CPI report; or was it? The bigger shock came afterward when Chevron stunned with its massive shake-up. At the same time - and for the same reasons - the oil market is undergoing a dramatic change of its own. And these are far from inflationary. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBLS January CPIhttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htmCNBC Chevron will slash up to 20% of its workforce as part of cost-cutting planhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/chevron-will-slash-up-to-20percent-of-its-workforce-as-part-of-cost-cutting-plan.htmlBarrons Chevron to Lay Off Up to 20% of Workers. Why the Oil Industry Is Slimming Down.https://www.barrons.com/articles/chevron-layoffs-oil-dividends-05fb9b8aWSJ Chevron Slashes Spending, Announces Job Cutshttps://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-12-05-2024/card/chevron-slashes-spending-announces-job-cuts-giqWm4lRhl4XDmoPDxvdCNBC Prices rose more than expected in January as inflation won’t go awayhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/cpi-inflation-january-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-january-more-than-expected-as-the-annual-rate-moved-to-3point1percent.htmlCNN The Fed might not be done raising interest rates just yethttps://www.cnn.com/2024/04/11/economy/fed-interest-rate-hike-probability/index.htmlRueters Inflation-wary US rate options market cautiously prices for 2024 Fed hikehttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/inflation-wary-us-rate-options-market-cautiously-prices-2024-fed-hike-2024-04-29/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

We're finding more and more evidence in 2025 that escaping the economy of the past few years won't be so easy and neat as many were hoping. The golden arches reported their worst sales estimates for American stores since the lockdowns. Those results fit with other retailers struggling mightily among other commercial segments, as data now suggests consumer fears over the labor market are compounding the downturn. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC McDonald’s revenue disappoints, as U.S. sales see worst drop since pandemichttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/10/mcdonalds-mcd-q4-2024-earnings.htmlCNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/03/why-dollar-general-and-dollar-tree-are-struggling.htmlhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/03/why-dollar-general-and-dollar-tree-are-struggling.htmlBloomberg Shein's Growth is Hurting Discount Retailers as Store Closures Surgehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-02-11/shein-and-temu-s-growth-is-hurting-discount-retailers-ahead-of-tariffsTarget https://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/11/target-corporation-reports-third-quarter-earningshttps://corporate.target.com/press/release/2025/01/target-corporation-provides-holiday-sales-update,-announces-leadership-team-changesFRBNY SCEhttps://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/Bloomberg US Consumer Sentiment Drops to Seven-Month Low on Price Worrieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-07/us-consumer-sentiment-drops-to-seven-month-low-on-price-worrieshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Auto exports out of Mexico plunged in January. While bad news for the struggling Mexican economy, this is more evidence for the growing global backlash of which the car business is right in the middle of. Cars aren't a victim but now a cause for concern the world over - including the primary reason for the struggle to begin with. America. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg German Industrial Production Falls Most in Five Months on Carshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-07/german-industrial-production-falls-most-in-five-months-on-carsBloomberg German Government Slashes 2025 Forecast Before Snap Electionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-29/german-government-slashes-growth-forecast-before-snap-electionhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Mexico is now the latest to accelerate, upping its ante as the situation reaches a critical turning point. It's been coming for a long time, yet central bankers worldwide now have a convenient excuse to cover the deterioration. The same one American consumers are now fretting with confidence rolling over and going sharply lower. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Complete mess. Payrolls revised massively lower. The govt discovers three million people and assumes two million were employed this whole time. More important than those, hours are shrinking to the point the average workweek is the lowest its been since MARCH 2020. Strong and resilient, as always. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBLS Employment Situationhttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmBLS Adjustments to Household Survey Population Estimates in January 2025https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps-pop-control-adjustments.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A major shift is underway now at the Bank of England. After being among the most cautious central banks it is being forced more to the dovish side. Even one of the most arch-hawks in all global central banking ditched her previous opposition to any rate cuts in order to urge a fifty-bps cut today! More reactions to the consequences from a world that forgot how to grow. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Bond yields have fallen sharply over the past two weeks, having now roundtripped the past two FOMC meetings, going all the way back to where they'd been before the "hawkish rate cut" in December. Latest data on the services economy go a long way to explaining why, with signs of one-offs and non-economic artificial factors more and more coming out of it.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Bond ‘Death Spiral’ Risk Brushed Aside by Foreign Fundshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-16/treasuries-death-spiral-risk-is-brushed-aside-by-foreign-fundsBloomberg Working Americans Turn to Food Banks as Fed Inflation Battle Drags Onhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-01-27/us-inflation-leads-families-to-struggle-for-food-fed-debates-rate-pathhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

No one is hiring yet no one is firing. The latter doesn't mean employers aren't getting rid of workers, because they are. Lots of them. A hiring freeze is only the first part of cost-cutting in a weak economy. From consumer surveys to govt jobs estimates, the labor market is on everyone's mind right now, employers and employees. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNissan offers buyouts as US production scales backhttps://www.automotivedive.com/news/nissan-buyouts-workforce-production-reduction-2025-tennessee-mississippi/738816/NBC News Bridgestone closes a tire plant in Tennessee with 700 layoffs and other reductionshttps://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/bridgestone-announces-tire-plant-closure-tennessee-700-layoffs-reducti-rcna189277Bloomberg STMicro Eyes Workforce Cuts of Up to 3,000 in Chip Slumphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-31/stmicro-eyes-workforce-cuts-of-up-to-6-as-chip-slump-drags-onUS Consumer Confidence Retreated in Januaryhttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Jan-2025https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Opening round of the 2025 trade wars. Mexico and Canada in the crosshairs. Neither of them stood a chance. The pounding started even before the negotiations began. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNYT Here’s What to Know About Trump’s Tariffshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/01/business/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china.htmlTruth Social, Trump Mexico Messagehttps://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113940711907400754Bloomberg Car Prices Face $3,000 Increase as Automakers Worry Over Tariffshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-02/car-prices-face-3-000-increase-as-trump-tariffs-hit-auto-sectorFinancial Post Trump takes aim at Canada's banking sector as tariffs loomhttps://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/trump-takes-aim-canada-banking-sector-tariffs-loomLive updates: Trump discusses tariffs with Canada and Mexicohttps://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/live-blog/trump-canada-mexico-tariffs-live-updates-rcna190371As Trade War Intensifies, Watch for Soaring Inflation, July 2018https://assuredam.com/2018/07/as-trade-war-intensifies-watch-out-for-inflation/FOMC Transcript June 2019https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20190619meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Gold has been soaring all of 2025 so far, reaching a new all-time high this past week as yet another major cyclical warning was triggered. Trade wars may account for some of the urgency, the real story is how in a world that's entirely artificial more in it desperately demand something real. It's getting easier to sort what's real from so much fakery. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreBloomberg STMicro Eyes Workforce Cuts of Up to 3,000 in Chip Slumphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-31/stmicro-eyes-workforce-cuts-of-up-to-6-as-chip-slump-drags-onhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Silicon Valley Bank's failure in March 2023 kicked off a chain of events that has cascaded across money, banks, and the real economy. The world economy didn't forget how to grow, the banking crisis of early '23 proved to be the final inflection point. Central banks may have won the battle over banks, then lost the war where it truly mattered. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Banks are in full-on defensive mode, GDP is in a huge and growing hole, and central bankers are realizing they're stuck no matter what. The end of last year for Europe stands as a stark warning that this global transition remains far from over with - even after two years of it already. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisECB statementhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/activities/mopo/html/index.en.htmlBloomberg ECB Cuts Rates for Fifth Time as Euro-Zone Economy Flatlineshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-30/ecb-cuts-rates-for-fifth-time-as-euro-zone-economy-flatlinesBloomberg Traders’ ECB Rate Cut Bets Fuel Biggest Yield Drop in Two Monthshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-30/german-two-year-yields-slump-as-traders-boost-ecb-rate-cut-betshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Reviewing the Fed, the Canadians, Sweden, and previewing the ECB. Market reactions and what really happened at the FOMC.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Bets on Big Treasuries Rally Are Booming Before Fed Decisionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-28/bets-on-bigger-treasuries-rally-are-booming-before-fed-decisionBloomberg Traders Bet ECB Will Need to Deepen and Accelerate Rate Cutshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-29/traders-bet-ecb-will-need-to-deepen-and-accelerate-rate-cutshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Shipping rates have plunged in January. The sinking demand for raw materials is another warning about the state of the economy in 2025. It was one echoed yet again by American consumers who, after a short reprieve on rate cuts and election, are right back to worrying about jobs and incomes all over again.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisInvestopediahttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/baltic_dry_index.aspBloomberg US Consumer Confidence Drops to Four-Month Low on Job Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-28/us-consumer-confidence-drops-to-four-month-low-on-job-marketConference Board https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidencehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Chinese banks are the real story, even as China's government (intentionally?) stole the spotlight with its AI-knock-off, a distraction from the latest real economy warning and most importantly the banking sector's latest. The credit crisis in the latter may finally be coming to a head as it keeps the former from stabilizing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisAA Xi Jinpinghttps://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/on-chinese-new-year-s-eve-xi-vows-to-confront-challenges-without-hesitation-/3463706Bloomberg China’s Economy Stumbles in Sign Rebound Hinges on More Stimulushttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-27/china-s-factory-activity-cools-ahead-of-major-new-year-holidayBloomberg China Starts Lowering Price Goals to Match Deflationary Realityhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-24/china-starts-lowering-price-goals-to-match-deflationary-realityBloomberg Markets Sound Alarm Over Deflationary Spiral in Chinahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-07/china-investors-sound-alarm-over-japan-style-deflation-as-yields-hit-record-lowBloomberg Hong Kong’s Property Distress Is Catching Up With City’s Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-26/hong-kong-s-property-distress-is-catching-up-with-city-s-bankshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

South Korea is the latest to fall into "forgot how to grow" and Texas Instruments showed the world why. Both were slammed this week for getting to the same place from different perspectives. Critical cyclical indications that shocked the consensus. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreBloomberg Texas Instruments Suffers Worst Rout Since 2020 on Weak Forecasthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-23/texas-instruments-outlook-signals-chip-slump-is-persistinghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

While the dollar was screaming higher the past few months, that eurodollar disorder had foreign govts absolutely raiding their reserves, money dealers hoarding record amounts of collateral and record Treasuries being piled up by depositories. And those were just the beginning. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

President Trump created quite a stir in his speech to Davos, demanding, among other things, lower oil prices from OPEC plus lower interest rates out of Jay Powell. In fact, those two are linked with the one expected to pave the way for the other. What's the real game here? More important, what are the chances this can work?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Trump Urges Lower Oil Prices, Interest Rate Cuts at Davoshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-23/trump-urges-opec-to-lower-oil-prices-warns-of-tariffs-at-davosCNBC President Donald Trump says he’ll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately’https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/23/president-donald-trump-says-hell-demand-that-interest-rates-drop-immediately.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Tariffs on Mexico and Canada begin on February 1, or do they? Whether President Trump is merely posturing or not, the threat is real and the situation globally they would be starting from makes for a difficult mix. That's why the dollar is rising, rates are falling, and real economy variables are already experiencing significant pressure.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Trump Plans to Impose 25% Tariffs on Mexico, Canada by Feb. 1https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-21/trump-plans-to-enact-25-tariffs-on-mexico-canada-by-feb-1WSJ The Big Risk of a Trade War: Inflationhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/the-big-risk-of-a-trade-war-inflation-1522926022Bloomberg Why the Freight Market Is Stuckhttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-17/j-b-hunt-warning-shows-freight-is-stuck-in-placeRueters Canadian dollar posts biggest decline among G10 currencieshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/canadian-dollar-posts-biggest-decline-among-g10-currencies-2025-01-16/Bloomberg Trump’s Pledge to Slap 25% Tariffs on Mexico Sinks Pesohttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-21/trump-s-pledge-to-slap-25-tariffs-on-mexico-sinks-pesohttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

UK payrolls took a massive hit in both November AND December. While the media looks for reasons to blame, the answer instead comes from all the rest of the world. Unemployment is on the rise all over the place, with the situations in some of them going way beyond softening or weakness. More than a few places you might not think of having a major employment downturn are, a warning to the world this is getting really serious. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Surprise UK Retail Sales Drop Fuels Economic Growth Worrieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-17/uk-retail-sales-fall-in-latest-setback-for-struggling-economyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Many regulators worry there is the potential for systemic crisis begun by so-called shadow banks. The banks you already know are the last one. In the decade and a half since 2008 the eurodollar world has evolved yet again. The aftermath of that last one opened the door to go back into the shadows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Lays Path for More Financial Giants to Get Fed Oversighthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-03/yellen-lays-path-for-more-financial-giants-to-get-fed-oversightBloomberg Shadow Bank Loans From US Lenders Surpass $1 Trillion in Fed Datahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-10/shadow-bank-loans-from-us-lenders-surpass-1-trillion-in-fed-dataIMF Shadow Banks: Out of the Eyes of Regulatorshttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/Shadow-Bankshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The verdict for the Christmas season is in and...not good. Consumers wanted to spend. They tried to spend. They couldn't spend, not what they wanted or retailers needed. Americans simply don't have enough funds and so the downturn marches on. Eurodollar University's conversation with Steve Van MetreSignet Jewelers Announces Holiday Sales Resultshttps://www.signetjewelers.com/investors/financial-news-releases/financial-news-release/2025/Signet-Jewelers-Announces-Holiday-Sales-Results/default.aspxAmericans Are Spending Less On Streaming Services – Here’s Whyhttps://9meters.com/entertainment/streaming/americans-are-on-average-spending-less-on-streaming-services-in-2024-compared-to-the-previous-yearhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Germany's economy is doing something we've never seen before. Not only did it contract for the second straight year, that's not even the most amazing part. The general pattern it is taking is one that is being repeated all around the world. It's as if the entire global economy stopped growing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg German Economy Shrinks for Second Year in New Blow to Scholzhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/german-economy-shrinks-for-second-straight-year-before-electionIFO Press Release Germany: Europe's largest economy is facing a third consecutive year of recessionhttps://www.ifo.de/en/press-release/2024-12-19/headcount-reduction-germany-more-likely-december-2024Sky News https://news.sky.com/story/germany-europes-largest-economy-is-facing-a-third-consecutive-year-of-recession-13289549Bloomberg ECB Will Keep Easing With Economy Losing Momentum, Guindos Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/ecb-will-keep-easing-with-economy-losing-momentum-guindos-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China's money markets have started to come unglued, with serious illiquidity driving up money rates. Despite provoking one of the largest liquidity operations in twenty years from the PBOC yesterday, the disorder came back even worse today. All of this against the backdrop of a currency fight and the prospect China's bank credit problem becomes a full-blown liquidity crisis. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg China's Central Bank Pumps Near-Historic Level of Cash Into Financial Systemhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/pboc-dials-up-short-term-liquidity-injections-amid-cash-squeezeBloomberg China Cash Squeeze Rolls on Even After Central Bank’s Infusionshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-16/china-cash-squeeze-rolls-on-even-after-pboc-liquidity-boostshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Treasuries exploded on the release of the "inflation" figures for December. Those were rather unremarkable, taken in isolation wouldn't have been able to explain why such a heavy market reaction. There is much more to the CPI and what's going on in the bond market. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Why Some Bond Traders Bet Relentless Selloff Will Soon Lose Steamhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-14/bond-traders-wager-slump-set-to-ease-with-key-cpi-data-aheadBloomberg Fed’s Barkin Says CPI Data Show Inflation Headed Toward 2% Goalhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/fed-s-barkin-says-cpi-data-show-inflation-headed-toward-2-goalBloomberg Fed Finds New Reason for Confidence in Obscure Inflation Gaugehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-09/fed-finds-new-reason-for-confidence-in-obscure-inflation-gaugehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Russian sanctions triggered more than a surge in oil prices. Financial markets near-panicked bought in near-term futures contracts. While the jump in energy is already being called an huge inflation risk, it isn't even close. On the contrary, oil spikes always end a certain way. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNN Biden admin imposes harsh sanctions on Russian oil industry to cut off funding for Ukraine war efforthttps://www.cnn.com/2025/01/10/politics/biden-admin-russia-energy-sanctions-ukraine/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Not a good day in India to start the week. The rupee’s currency crisis is accelerating. The central bank is burning through reserves at an unsustainable pace. India stocks were crushed, with the main SENSEX index down over a thousand points. Delhi also significantly dialed back its growth estimates while reports came out it is going to massively restate its November imports. Why is all this happening? It's not because of Jay Powell or Donald Trump. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisHindustan Times Stock market today: Sensex and Nifty tanks, rupee hits all-time lowhttps://www.hindustantimes.com/business/stock-market-crash-sensex-tanks-nearly-700-points-on-open-nifty-down-over-200-101736737599073.htmlBloomberg Deepening India Slowdown Sinks Hope for New Era of 8% Growthhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-08/india-s-deepening-slowdown-dashes-hopes-for-new-era-of-8-growthBloomberg India’s Central Bank Said to Ease Rupee Drought With FX Swapshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-13/india-s-central-bank-said-to-ease-rupee-drought-with-fx-swapsBusiness Standard 'If they tax us, we tax them': Trump threatens reciprocal tariffs on Indiahttps://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/trump-threatens-reciprocal-tariffs-india-trade-conflict-124121800321_1.htmlBloomberg It May Rain Downgrades This Earnings Season in Indiahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-13/india-market-buzz-big-money-in-small-companies-looks-tough-nowBloomberg India Fixing Record Trade Gap After Overstating Gold Importshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-08/india-fixing-record-trade-deficit-after-overstating-gold-importshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another blowout payroll report, way above every expectation. That makes two in a row for the Est. Survey post-election. Plus, a big rebound for the HH Survey. Trump-bump, a sign of a resurgent economy finally shaking off the doldrums of the past year-plus? Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China's yuan is hanging by a thread, the closest it has ever been to going over the government limit. Finally, even the mainstream media has caught on this has nothing to do with Jay Powell and the Fed. The bazooka has been utterly exposed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg PBOC Halts Bond Buying to Defend Yuan as Economic Gloom Worsenshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/pboc-says-it-will-temporarily-halt-buying-of-government-bondsBloomberg China’s Market Support Falls Short as Economic Gloom Deepenshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/china-s-market-support-falls-short-as-economic-gloom-deepensBloomberg China Ramps Up Yuan Support With Record Hong Kong Bill Issuancehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-09/pboc-taps-record-bill-issuance-in-hong-kong-to-support-yuanBloomberg Yuan Short Sellers Squeezed by Soaring Hong Kong Funding Costshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-07/offshore-yuan-borrowing-costs-surge-as-currency-support-in-focushttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Credit card balances crashed in November, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. That's a major warning but not about spending. With such a negative signal instead relating to jobs and the labor market, why the hell are LT rates...rising? The answer to the question can be found in Canada and Germany. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

And now for some layoffs to go with the ongoing alarming drop in hiring. More strong evidence the labor market in the US is on the edge of the Beveridge cliff. It may not actually be a cliff in the literal sense, yet all the data points to the economy being at that point...if not already past it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

European banks are not acting like either inflation is breaking back out or that the economy is going to be fine and hit its widely-expected soft landing. Instead, what they are doing is the other side of the weak euro. Both are further corroborated by the latest from France and especially Switzerland, with another warning coming from the Swiss on more than "inflation."Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Traders See Euro Hitting Dollar Parity as Soon as This Monthhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-07/traders-look-past-euro-s-bounce-for-parity-as-soon-as-this-monthBloomberg French Government Tempers Budget Goal to Shelter Economyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-06/france-aims-for-2025-deficit-between-5-and-5-5-of-gdpReuters Swiss inflation falls again, pointing to more central bank rate cutshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/swiss-inflation-falls-again-pointing-more-central-bank-rate-cuts-2025-01-07/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Canada's Prime Minister resigned, as expected, just as Canada announces more troubling economic data. The whole saga of PM Trudeau's downfall is actually perfectly illustrated by the loonie; and it applies to a lot more than Canada. It's a warning to both existing governments as well as the successors who take over for them after voters have had enough. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFox Canada’s Trudeau announces resignation following party pressure amid criticisms of Trump, budget handlinghttps://www.foxnews.com/world/canadas-trudeau-announces-resignation-following-party-pressure-amid-criticisms-trump-budget-handlingBloomberg Canada’s Economy Shrank in November for First Time This Yearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-23/canada-s-economy-shrank-in-november-for-first-time-this-yearBloomberg One in Four UK Firms Cut Jobs After Reeves Budget, PMI Showshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-06/one-in-four-uk-firms-cut-jobs-after-reeves-tax-rise-pmi-showsBloomberg Number of UK Retailers in Distress Surge 25% in Fourth Quarterhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-27/number-of-uk-retailers-in-distress-surge-25-in-fourth-quarterUK Independent Tax and pay hikes to see UK firms pay £2,300 more per low-wage worker in 2025https://www.the-independent.com/news/uk/home-news/tax-ni-pay-wages-businesses-b2672875.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Something big happened in late November, impacting markets all around the world. Responsible for the crash in currencies, the collapse in some interest rates, maybe even some modest upset over in the stock market. We have a number of clues to go off, a few suspects to analyze. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Trump vows an additional 10% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexicohttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/26/trump-vows-an-additional-10percent-tariff-on-china-25percent-tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico.htmlTruth Social https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215408213585https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There are huge numbers being thrown around the stock market. Normally you can just ignore them since share prices go up almost no matter what. But these imbalances are now too big to simply dismiss and key sectors in the equity market aren't buying them. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWSJ Stocks on Pace for Best Two Years in a Quarter-Centuryhttps://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stocks-on-pace-for-best-two-years-in-a-quarter-century-c5b5f9b3NYT Wall St. Sees More Gains Ahead After Another Bumper Year for Stockshttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/31/business/stock-market-2025-predictions.htmlMotley Fool Prediction: The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Bubble Will Burst in 2025. Here's Why.https://www.barchart.com/story/news/30123360/prediction-the-artificial-intelligence-ai-bubble-will-burst-in-2025-heres-whyECB Financial Stability Review November 2024https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A plunge in Chicago kicks off more concerns over the global car business. Layoffs and plant closures keep coming as automakers are having enormous difficulties first aligning their businesses with the lack of recovery. On top of that, more indications beside Chicago pour in showing falling cyclical demand for cars, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters Europe's embattled auto sector plans plant closures and layoffshttps://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/europes-embattled-auto-sector-plans-plant-closures-layoffs-2024-12-02/InsideEVs Honda's CEO Struggles To Explain Why Nissan Merger Makes Sensehttps://insideevs.com/news/745625/honda-nissan-merger-struggling-reason/Japan trade https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/shinbun/trade-st_e/2024/2024115e.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The biggest surprise of 2024 wasn't any election results nor was it the fact central banks worldwide are more desperately accelerating rate cuts as the year draws to close. Or that other governments and officials are resorting to increasing panicky measures to calm markets in their areas. What caught everyone so off guard about '24 was the one outcome that stands behind all of those things. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIMF WEO January 2024https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/01/30/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After facing a major setback, the Reserve Bank of India has ditched its longshot desperation tactic aimed at 'speculators' betting against the rupee. They aren't the problem, the fundamentals are - global fundamentals. There is a lot INR has to say about those as it becomes the latest to plunge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBusiness Standard RBI dials down use of NDFs to fight dollar, balance rupee stabilityhttps://www.business-standard.com/finance/news/rbi-dials-down-use-of-ndfs-to-fight-dollar-balance-rupee-stability-124121800613_1.htmlBusiness Standard RBI asks some lenders to reduce speculative positions against rupeehttps://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/reserve-bank-asks-some-lenders-to-cut-speculative-bets-against-rupee-124112200628_1.htmlBusiness Standard Rupee falls to new low of 85.27 as importers stock up dollar at month endhttps://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/rupee-falls-to-new-low-of-85-27-as-importers-stock-up-dollar-at-month-end-124122600861_1.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

More indications of substantial problems for American workers - they can't find any jobs. But why? Moreover, what will it take to get this major hiring freeze to thaw? It isn't rate cuts or lower rates. Nor does it appear the election has worked, either. Consumers plunged back into fears over jobs and incomes in December.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNBC News From 'Great Resignation' to 'Great Detachment': How the U.S. job market has slowedhttps://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/hard-to-find-a-job-get-hired-why-november-2024-jobs-report-rcna183102Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Pulled Back in Decemberhttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidencehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Major shift in the Treasury curve with a critical spread uninverting for the first time in years. Bonds and central banks are on the move, which leaves some of Treasury market going the wrong way. And the only reason is Jay Powell. From swaps to other bonds, even something called term premia, the Fed is in the dark while bonds are lighting up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRBNY Term Premia calculationshttps://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data_indicators/term-premia-tabs#/interactiveBloomberg Treasury ‘Term Premium’ Gauge Positive for First Time Since 2021https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-27/treasury-term-premium-gauge-positive-for-first-time-since-2021https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

LT Chinese bond rates have been falling fast for a while. Over the last two weeks, ST yields have completely collapsed; most of it last week, too. Why? Maybe more important, why now? The mainstream answer to either one is total nonsense and easily debunked from the September bazooka. What does that leave? Possibly an old familiar name. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Chinese Regulator Asks Insurers to Report Vanke Debt Holdingshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/chinese-regulator-asks-insurers-to-report-vanke-debt-holdingshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

According to the latest conventional 'wisdom' - which changes with each and every CPI report and FOMC dot adjustment - inflation is back and so is the soft landing. The most recent update from the labor market says that's entirely backward. Job findings have utterly plunged right when the jobs market reaches that 'magical' unemployment inflection spot on this critical curve. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There's more to the Brazil story, especially since Brazil's story isn't strictly about Brazil. With markets there spiraling into chaos, the government is down to blaming 'speculators.' If that's the case, then speculation has gone global in a lot of critical ways. From currencies to job findings plunging, even something real like the Baltic Dry which is crashing now, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Brazil Central Bank Rejects Doubts Over Power of Monetary Policyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-19/brazil-central-bank-rejects-doubts-over-monetary-policyBloomberg Brazil Traders ‘Sell First, Ask Later’ as Panic Hits Marketshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-17/brazil-traders-sell-first-ask-later-as-panic-sweeps-marketsFT Warren Buffett's record cash pile is starting to make people nervoushttps://financialpost.com/financial-times/warren-buffett-cash-pile-investors-nervousBloomberg Brazil Finance Chief Says Real May Be Under ‘Speculative Attack’https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/brazil-finance-chief-says-real-may-be-under-speculative-attackBloomberg Brazil Spends $17 Billion in Reserves to Lift Cratering Realhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/central-bank-burns-17-billion-in-reserves-to-lift-brazil-s-realBloomberg Brazil’s Wealthy Lament Political Dysfunction as Fortunes Tumblehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/brazil-s-richest-people-lament-political-dysfunction-as-fortunes-tumblehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

While everyone is hanging on the Fed and the FOMC's indecision about how many rate cuts next year, there are currency crises - plural - beginning to break out in key places. One of those is Brazil where it has gotten so dangerous the country's central bank is now regularly intervening in FX spot markets. What's really going on here? The black hole is angry.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU