Eurodollar University

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Re-risking accelerated on Wall Street and for many other markets; even bond yields rose. The thinking is if trade wars broke everything, then trade deals fix it. However, the US and China don't have one, And that's only the first of several key misimpressions - starting with the 2018 example. Like then, the incoming data doesn't align with "trade wars broke it."Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJoint Statement on U.S.-China Economic and Trade Meeting in Genevahttps://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/05/joint-statement-on-u-s-china-economic-and-trade-meeting-in-geneva/Bloomberg US, China to Slash Tariffs During 90-Day Reprieve for Talkshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-12/us-and-china-agree-to-major-reductions-in-tariffs-for-90-daysBloomberg Japan Rules Out Trade Deal With US That Excludes Auto Tariffshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-12/japan-s-ishiba-says-won-t-do-trade-deal-with-us-excluding-autosSCMP China’s consumer prices fall in April, fuelling fears of deflationhttps://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3309834/chinas-consumer-prices-fall-april-fuelling-fears-deflationhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What's in a single number? For this one, a whole lot of confirmation plus warning. Consumer sentiment has famously crashed and this one figure holds the key to why. Everything else that's happening comes down to this single deficiency. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Canadian payrolls were dismal in April, including the biggest two-month collapse in private jobs since the lockdowns. It isn't just sentiment. While pessimism has soared, results from around the real economy is backing that up with hard data. Not just Canada, also Mexico. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJeremy Rudd Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2021062pap.pdfTranscript Chair Powell Press Conference May 2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250507.pdfBloomberg Canada Joblessness Hits 6.9% as Tariffs Strike Manufacturinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-09/canada-adds-7-400-jobs-unemployment-jumps-to-6-9Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report 2025https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/SPG Canada Manufacturing PMI April 2025https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/487ca2cba7784b86aa9d9df3a315d744SPG Canada Services PMI April 2025https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4c356ce1148c420fbee728307ef2b2dchttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Former hardcore hawk, the Bank of England pulled ahead of the Federal Reserve by rejoining the global race to the bottom. And it did so with what is being called a weird three-way split. The split was neither weird nor much of one. Instead what BoE did - and why - has already shown up here in the US. The latest confirmation comes from the Fed's very own data where job fears have exploded for the same reason(s) BoE is acting. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBank of England MPR May 2025https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/may-2025FOMC Chair May 2025 press conferencehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oX4RCJJXAMhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250507.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Insiders are looking for the exits. Short selling sharks are circling. Regulated banks are majorly exposed to this credit segment, another one deep within the shadows. Could this explain why market signals remain near or at extremes? From swap spreads to gold ratios, there is deflationary everywhere in them and credit default swaps have cast their blame specifically toward banks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Short Sellers Bet Against Private Credit Lendershttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-03/short-sellers-bet-against-private-credit-lenders-credit-weeklyIMF Global Financial Stability Report April 2025https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2025/04/22/global-financial-stability-report-april-2025IMF Private Credithttps://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/04/08/fast-growing-USD2-trillion-private-credit-market-warrants-closer-watchhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

US sovereign CDS prices are soaring, not relenting after jumping during April. While mainstream sources will say that's this dollar-ditching stuff, neither the track record for CDS nor empirical evidence agrees. Government credit default swap premiums are set by one factor, and it has everything to do with the banking system. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin?https://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp201402.pdfMSCI The CDS Market’s View on US Defaulthttps://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/the-cds-market-s-view-on-us/03820087801Bloomberg Oaktree Co-CEO Sees Private Credit Trades as Low as 50 Centshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-02/oaktree-s-o-leary-says-deep-discounts-arising-in-private-credithttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Another major safe haven currency has exploded higher, not just in early April but here in early May. It's gone so far already the local monetary authority has had to intervene. Over in Switzerland, the country report zero inflation for April. Along with the similar behavior of the franc, the Swiss central bank is looking at zero rates next month - if not negative given what both these currencies are doing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Hong Kong Dollar Tests Strong End of Trading Band for Second Dayhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-05/hong-kong-dollar-tests-strong-end-of-trading-band-for-second-dayhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The April employment report...wasn't what everything thought it was. Not even close. What has changed is the narrative surrounding what are shaky numbers all the way around. The question everyone is asking isn't if the labor market is "good enough", it's now whether it is "bad enough." Here's what the data actually says about that. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Japan was, they said, on the cusp of generational shift. The real outlier in a growing tide of reversals, BoJ was still hiking still anticipating an inflationary recovery. It has all come crashing down, globally synchronized. But not before one final plot twist. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/The Treasury Secretary spoke through the financial media to Jay Powell. He had a very simple message for the Fed Chair: pay attention to the 2s. And Ronald McDonald. It's not just the Treasury market. If only that was the case, there is also a close relationship - therefore strong warning - coming via the oil market, too. This is already why OPEC is itself shifting to recession economics.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Bessent Says Two-Year Treasuries Signaling Fed Should Cuthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-01/bessent-says-two-year-treasuries-are-signaling-fed-should-cutBloomberg Understanding the Unlikely Saudi Push for Lower Oil Priceshttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-01/opec-puzzle-understanding-the-saudi-push-for-lower-oil-pricesCNN McDonald’s just had its worst quarter since Covid. It said customers are getting nervoushttps://www.cnn.com/2025/05/01/investing/mcdonalds-earnings-first-quarter-2025https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A slew of economic reports from around the biggest global economies. Starting with US GDP, then Mexico, Germany and Europe then finally some critical macro data from China. There is indeed a common thread running through all of them, and it has markets spooked: CtG hit a new multi-year low barely above the 2020 lows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectationshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/adp-jobs-report-april-2025.htmlBloomberg Mexico Economy Narrowly Dodges Recession Amid US Trade Chaoshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/mexico-economy-narrowly-dodges-recession-amid-trump-trade-chaosCNBC Euro zone economy expands by better-than-expected 0.4% in the first quarterhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/euro-zone-gdp-q1-2025.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another day, another crash; or crashes. Conference Board expectations plunged to their lowest level since 2011. Another Fed PMI plummets. Two-year Treasury yields hit their lows. All pointing to that Beveridge transition.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisConference Board Consumer Confidence April 2025https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Apr-2025Atlanta Fed GDPNowhttps://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowBloomberg Economists Say Trade War Makes US Recession Almost a Coin Fliphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-04-25/economists-say-trade-war-makes-us-recession-almost-a-coin-fliphttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you were to go off of only data collected by the Federal Reserve on the economy, you'd be left with no other option than to see it at best on the doorstep of full-blown recession. Yet, officials argue inflation anyway. The real question is where all this information and evidence instead fits the "labor curve." Unfortunately, the Fed's numbers all fall on flat. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFed Beige Book April 2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdfTexas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504#tab-reporthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/While other airlines were pulling their forecasts afraid to tell the truth and preferring to hide under behind "uncertainty", Southwest's CEO bluntly stated there's a recession. And that's exactly what is starting to emerge from the Federal Reserve's very own contacts, thus why former FOMC hawks are now sounding incredibly dovish, the fundamentals of interest rates in all directions. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreBloomberg Southwest CEO Says US Airline Industry Is Already in a Recessionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/southwest-ceo-says-us-airline-industry-is-already-in-a-recessionFed Beige Book April 2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Weakness in key Asian bellwether has authorities there panicking into bailouts, setting its central on course to be the next major to head into "historically" low interest rates. That's not all, there's already spillover from the tariff shock in China where reports show work stoppages and factory closings. And rates there are right back near record lows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChosunBiz South Korea's economy faces 0.2% GDP decline amid tariff and political turmoilhttps://biz.chosun.com/en/en-policy/2025/04/24/O6H63WLPC5BHDE3HUEYUTF6UUMSouth Korea Ministerial Meeting on Economic Affairs and Ministerial Meeting on Strengthening Industrial Competitiveness (Apr.15, 2025)https://english.moef.go.kr/pc/selectTbPressCenterDtl.do;jsessionid=ngE3YYBKCpQ6L--F1ty-I76Sl7rjfIGh94TDtjlr.node20?boardCd=N0001&seq=6146FT Chinese factories slow production and send workers home as US tariffs bitehttps://www.ft.com/content/d5784258-4de3-44a1-94ae-6f763857b034https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Walmart isn't sitting on tariffs. They instead rolling back more prices understanding what Chipotle just found out the hard way. The burrito bowl restaurant reported its first sales decline since the lockdowns, and the reason why has everyone from airlines to Walmart scrambling. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Walmart Amps Up Discounts as Rivals Weigh Tariff-Driven Hikeshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/walmart-amps-up-discounts-to-lure-cost-conscious-customersBloomberg Walmart Keeps Price Pressure on Suppliers After Beijing Pushbackhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/walmart-keeps-price-pressure-on-suppliers-after-beijing-pushbackCNBC Chipotle is seeing a ‘slowdown’ in consumer spending as 2025 gets off to a rough starthttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-q1-2025-earnings.htmlBloomberg American Air Is Latest US Carrier to Give Up on 2025 Forecasthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/american-air-aal-pulls-full-year-outlook-on-soft-travel-demand-worryBloomberg United Airlines Is So Unsure About the Economy It Offers Two Profit Scenarioshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/united-air-flags-recessionary-risk-while-keeping-profit-targetCNBC Alaska Airlines warns of slower demand as second-quarter profit outlook falls shorthttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/alaska-air-alk-1q-2025-earnings.htmlSPG Composite PMI flash April 2025https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/9ee36c52b8a649adada211c1842512behttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

While the whole world seems convinced the rest of it is rotating away from Treasuries, the actual evidence unequivocally shows something very different. This isn't a one-time relationship, either. Instead, a deep fundamental basis that connects repo, interest rates foundations, global banks, and the recent deflationary developments. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Traders View Treasury Auctions as Litmus Test for Foreign Buyershttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/us-treasury-auctions-offer-latest-clues-on-foreign-buyers-strikehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another day, another major warning this time once again from the Swiss. This one is a critical dollar signal. Even though the mainstream gets it completely backward, that diminish the significance of the surge. Plus, it is being corroborated by others along with changes to macro interpretations even among official bodies like the IMF.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSNB's Martin Schlegel December 12, 2024https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-12-12/snb-s-schlegel-on-interest-rate-decision-negative-ratesIMF WEO April 2025https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/We're moving out of the theoretical impacts from tariffs and global weakness and into the reality of the situation. The first data from April is coming in from a variety of sources. China is seeing major reactions, as did South Korea. Hardly being spared, the response in Philly manufacturing was near-historic. Here comes the data for all those dependent. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Trade war fallout: Cancellations of Chinese freight ships begin as bookings plummethttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/trade-war-fallout-china-freight-ship-decline-begins-orders-plummet.htmlBloomberg Shrinking Korea Exports Send Global Warning on Trump Tariffshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-21/south-korea-s-early-trade-data-show-exports-shrank-after-tariffsHankyoreh BOK warns of negative economic growth in Q1, hinting at another downgrade in Mayhttps://www.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_business/1193165.htmlConference Board March 2025 LEIhttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicatorshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Foreign governments are selling large quantities of Treasury securities, including the Chinese. Several commentators have therefore suggested there is a growing probability China devalues the yuan. While all of these results and possibilities are indeed related, not all foreigners are selling dollar assets. According to the same data, this group has been a buying hand over fist. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Anyone looking to buy gold really needs to contact today's video sponsor, our friends over at DefytheGrid, using the link below:https://defythegrid.com/c/eurodollaruniversity/Make sure you use Coupon Code: eurodollaruniversityA return to historic low interest rates in Europe is now practically guaranteed. Chances for ultra-low and maybe even zero is becoming too much to ignore. More importantly, why Europe has become a leader of the pack in the race to the bottom. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisECB Press Conference April 2025https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250417~091c625eb6.en.htmlhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YWkRPdC79Mhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/There are way too many critical financial and monetary signals at crisis levels right now. The 2008 or 2020 comparisons are all over the place. The latest to reach these numbers is derived from silver. By itself, what it has done is alarming. Combined with everything else performing similarly, it's too much to ignore. The reason why is what all these together really mean, exactly what we investigate here. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Anyone looking to by gold really needs to contact today's video sponsor, our friends over at DefytheGrid, using the link below:https://defythegrid.com/c/eurodollaruniversity/Make sure you use Coupon Code: eurodollaruniversityA big move in Japan today, with yields dropping and the yen rising. Both were matched by some truly grim developments and warnings from around the world, everything from AI to the Bank of Canada's extreme case and then some truly grim results in New York. Or, exactly what JGBs and JPY are signaling themselves. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Nvidia Curbs and ASML Warning Spur Global Tech-Stock Routhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/nvidia-supplier-stocks-drop-on-latest-china-export-restrictionsWTO April 2025 Global Trade Outlookhttps://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_outlook25_e.pdfFRBNY April 2025 Business Leaders Survey https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/Survey/business_leaders/2025/2025_04blsreport.pdf?sc_lang=en&hash=F63E9C1D24FCF84A22217C915C713718https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Central bankers all over the world kept saying, nah, we’re not going to do it this time. They weren’t going to race to the bottom, cutting their interest rates back down to historical lows. And the data keeps coming in that says, yeah, you are. Troubling developments along these lines as Europe goes more for the bottom. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg UK Employment Fell Most Since Pandemic Ahead of Tax Hikehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/uk-wage-growth-quickens-employment-falls-in-dilemma-for-boeRueters ECB's Rehn sees stronger case for ECB rate cut in April amid trade warhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecbs-rehn-sees-stronger-case-ecb-rate-cut-april-amid-trade-war-2025-04-09/ZEW press releasehttps://www.zew.de/en/press/latest-press-releases/liberation-day-causes-zew-indicator-to-plungeIEA April 2025https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2025Bloomberg Oil Goes From Bad to Worse in First Takes on 2026https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-15/oil-goes-from-bad-to-worse-in-first-takes-on-2026https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Ray Dalio says he believes the economy is already on the edge of a full-blown recession already, and he's hardly alone. However, Dalio also told Meet The Press his main worry is that recession economy getting slammed by a crisis. While Mr. Dalio means persistently higher interest rates, we know that's not what the real markets are pricing even if ultimately this would lead to exactly what he's warning about. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNBC News Ray Dalio MtPhttps://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/billionaire-investor-ray-dalio-is-worried-about-something-worse-than-recession-full-interview-237257285807Bloomberg Bessent Is Wrong About Banks Saving Treasurieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-14/bessent-is-wrong-about-banks-saving-treasuriesFRBNY SCEhttps://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/Bloomberg Fearing Recession, Young People Are Heading to Grad Schoolhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-12/grad-school-interest-surges-as-young-people-fear-recession-bleak-job-markethttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Consumer confidence plummeted to second lowest on record for a series that dates back to 1952 as American workers are afraid for their jobs in way the economy hasn't seen since the worst months of 2009. If that wasn't enough, both consumer and producer price indexes for March declined into deflation...in spite of tariffs. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreUniversity of Michigan Surveys of Consumershttps://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

DXY fell to its lowest value in more than two years. That means the dollar is crashing, right? Everyone says so, but when it comes to the dollar or anything related to the monetary system what everyone says is rarely ever so. The dollar IS going nuts, at least that part's right.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters US dollar stranglehold on global FX sets stage for euro parity: Reuters pollhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/us-dollar-stranglehold-global-fx-sets-stage-euro-parity-2025-01-08/Reuters Next up for markets: A crisis of confidence in the dollarhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/wealth/next-up-markets-crisis-confidence-dollar-2025-04-04/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/One of the most critical and dependable monetary signals we have utterly crashed this week. While other financial markets struggle to regain their footing, this one says there's more disorder still to come along with the negative consequences from it in the real economy. And to punctuate how high the possibilities are, the BLS reported a disturbingly negative CPI for March. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Why are Treasury yields soaring when they should be falling on flight to safety? This is the telltale sign of something we're not supposed to talk about or even recognize. As clear as day, the Treasury market's supposed breakdown explains everything else that's happening alongside it: why there are liquidations and chaos seemingly in every direction. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBasis Trade/Hedge Fund Bailouthttps://youtu.be/MF3B0puKkxUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Downgrades are coming in from all over the place, this one from America's top CEOs. Worse than that, critical segments of the bond market wholeheartedly agree with the increasingly dire assessments, making multiyear lows of their own. Moreover, the latest data on consumer credit fans the flames of ongoing liquidations. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC CEOs think the U.S. is ‘probably in a recession right now,’ says BlackRock’s Larry Finkhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/ceos-think-the-us-is-probably-in-a-recession-right-now-says-blackrocks-larry-fink.htmlBloomberg Goldman Boosts Recession Risk, Brings Forward Fed Rate-Cut Callhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/goldman-boosts-recession-risk-brings-forward-fed-rate-cut-callhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Today was Asia's turn to get pummeled by margin calls, distressed sales, even liquidations. Within all those, there are growing signs of monetary deflation. First, the key role Japan played in what happened. Then, an abrupt selloff in Treasuries which left the mainstream shaking its collective head. Instead, a telltale sign all its own. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Asian Stocks Tumble Most Since 2008 on Global Recession Worrieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/asian-stock-benchmarks-drops-most-in-14-years-on-tariff-concernsBloomberg China Stocks Suffer ‘Panic Selling’ as Tariff War Escalateshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/chinese-stocks-plunge-amid-growing-fear-of-full-blown-trade-warhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Market meltdowns took center stage and attention away from March payroll estimates. They were overshadowed by a rise in unemployment which further cemented growing financial concerns the economy has already fallen into the bad case. That point has previously been raised by a key factor almost everyone had missed. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/If you want to come hang out at Rebel Capitalist Live, Use code jeff (lowercase) at checkout to get $100 off your ticket → https://rebelcapitalistlive.com/Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Downgrade fever is here. It's coming in from private sources as well as central banks, in the US as well as outside of it. The global economy's loss of momentum has become too much to ignore any longer. While that just means everyone will blame tariffs, all those are doing is waking everyone up to what's been happening for some time already.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisAtlanta Fed GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowBloomberg Fed’s Goolsbee Warns of Tariff-Induced Pullback in Spendinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/fed-s-goolsbee-warns-of-tariff-induced-pullback-in-spendingCNBC #RecessionIndicator: Young Americans are losing confidence in the economy — and it shows onlinehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/27/young-americans-are-losing-confidence-in-economy-and-it-shows-online.htmlCNBC First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC surveyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.htmlBloomberg Pimco Favors Stable Returns From Bonds as Recession Risk Buildshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/pimco-favors-stable-returns-from-bonds-as-recession-risk-buildsOECD March 2025https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025_89af4857-en.htmlOECD December 2024https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2024/12/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2024-issue-2_67bb8fac.htmlOECD November 2010https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2010/12/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2010-issue-2_g1ghbb4a/eco_outlook-v2010-2-en.pdfBloomberg France’s 2025 Economic Growth Forecast to Be Cut, Minister Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/france-s-2025-economic-growth-forecast-to-be-cut-minister-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The selloff in the riskiest corners of the credit market has been significant over the past month, yet there are worries it is nowhere near enough. Some have called it the financial system's gray swan, the most glaring inconsistency nearly everyone is simply ignoring or trying to paper over. As the economy deteriorates - with more evidence today - the risk to the system only gets bigger and louder. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Recession Fear Raises ‘Gray Swan’ Risk for Bond Investorshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/us-recession-worries-raise-gray-swan-risk-for-bond-investorshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There are growing signs the AI bubble has indeed been a bubble and it may be reversing. That's not great for stocks, obviously, but the potential goes way beyond plaguing equities. There are direct impacts as well as, most importantly, the combination with other negative factors producing a confluence of too many headwinds. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Microsoft Abandons Data Center Projects, TD Cowen Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-26/microsoft-abandons-more-data-center-projects-td-cowen-saysBloomberg Alibaba’s Tsai Warns of ‘Bubble’ in AI Data Center Buildouthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-25/alibaba-s-tsai-warns-of-a-bubble-in-ai-datacenter-buildoutBloomberg US Credit Risk Gauge Shows Fear Rising as Tariffs Loom This Weekhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-31/us-credit-risk-gauge-shows-fear-rising-as-tariffs-loom-this-weekWSJ Tech Giants Double Down on Their Massive AI Spendinghttps://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/tech-giants-double-down-on-their-massive-ai-spending-b3040b33Goldman Sachs Will the $1 trillion of generative AI investment pay off?https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/will-the-1-trillion-of-generative-ai-investment-pay-offCNBC First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC surveyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

With recession fears still growing, the government just reported strange results for a key set of economic data. And it's contradicted by a range of other reports, starting with more retailer warnings like the one from Lululemon about store traffic. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Lululemon Plunges With Outlook Hurt by US Consumer Worrieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-27/lululemon-s-us-struggles-weigh-on-sales-outlook-for-coming-yearhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Why are senior researchers and former officials urging the Fed to create a hedge fund bailout? At first, this seems to be about the Treasury market and concerns tied to March 2020. It doesn't take too long, however, to see what's really going on here. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBrookings Treasury market dysfunction and the role of the central bankhttps://www.brookings.edu/articles/treasury-market-dysfunction-and-the-role-of-the-central-bank/Bloomberg Fed Urged to Explore Hedge Fund Bailout Tool for Basis Tradehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-27/fed-urged-to-mull-a-hedge-fund-bailout-facility-for-basis-tradesOFR Hedge Funds and the Treasury Cash-Futures Disconnect https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/files/OFRwp-21-01-hedge-funds-and-the-treasury-cash-futures-disconnect.pdfFOMC Meeting Minutes March 15, 2020https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20200315.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Historic bond buying by European banks kept up again in February. The two-month binge is only surpassed by April and May 2020. At the same time, no lending to speak of, banks being totally defensive despite rate cuts. The implications are enormous given the background for 2025. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisYou can watch the replay of our last webinar going over the various scenarios for the global economy: https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer for its subscriptions and memberships:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offerECB The euro area bank lending survey - Fourth quarter of 2024https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/bank_lending_survey/html/ecb.blssurvey2024q4~e1ddae0f19.en.htmlECB Past Macroeconomic Projectionshttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/devel/ecana/html/table.en.htmlECB Using corporate earnings calls to forecast euro area labour demandhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2025/html/ecb.ebbox202502_04~3283f1bc62.en.htmlBloomberg ECB’s Escriva Says Downside Risks Are Outweighing Upside Riskshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-24/ecb-s-escriva-says-downside-risks-are-outweighing-upside-risksBloomberg ECB Rate Cuts Are Neither Finished Nor Automatic, Villeroy Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-25/ecb-rate-cuts-are-neither-finished-nor-automatic-villeroy-saysBloomberg Stournaras Says Everything Points to April ECB Cut: Econostreamhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-21/stournaras-says-everything-points-to-april-ecb-cut-econostreamBloomberg Lagarde Says Uncertainty Means ECB Can’t Commit on Rateshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-20/lagarde-says-rising-uncertainty-means-ecb-can-t-commit-on-rateshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer for its subscriptions and memberships:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offerWhy on earth would anyone say we need a serious financial and economic crisis? Simple: it might be the only way to avoid a lot worse. We've had two so far in the last almost twenty years that got us nowhere; worse than nowhere. If nothing else, maybe third time's a charm.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBen Bernanke's pathetic response to some real Congressional questioning in July 2012:https://www.c-span.org/program/house-committee/us-economic-outlook-and-monetary-policy/282124https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offerConsumer confidence collapsed in March, at the same time data on services industries showed much the same. This dramatic loss of momentum is coming up seemingly everywhere, to the point it has Wall Street taking the R-word more seriously than at any time since 2020. Not for nothing, that's what some of these datapoints are looking like. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisConference Board Consmer Confidence March 2025https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidencePhilly Fed March 2025 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Surveyhttps://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/nbos-2025-03New York Fed Business Leaders Survey https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/business_leaders/bls_overview.htmlChicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC)https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfsec/current-dataRichmond Fed Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activityhttps://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/surveys/service_sectorCNBC DoubleLine’s Gundlach sees more risk coming along with greater chance of recessionhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/doublelines-gundlach-sees-more-risk-coming-and-greater-chance-of-recession-.html?qsearchterm=gundlachCNBC The probability of a recession is approaching 50%, Deutsche markets survey findshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/24/the-probability-of-a-recession-is-approaching-50percent-deutsche-markets-survey-finds.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1FedEx warned that the US economy is now the biggest constraint on the world, experiencing what the shipper currently estimates is a very serious round of "uncertainty." However, incoming data - not to mention the dollar - shows how the situation is becoming more - not less - certain, with a whole host of updates today. "Uncertainty" simply means "we don't like how this looks."Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC FedEx cuts full-year results forecast on ‘uncertainty’ in economy, bad weatherhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/fedex-cuts-full-year-results-forecast-on-uncertainty-in-economy-bad-weather.htmlBloomberg Lightspeed Cuts Revenue Outlook on Weakening Consumer Confidencehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-24/lightspeed-tsx-lspd-cuts-revenue-guidance-as-consumer-spending-slowsSPG US PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/a30301f1804041a083e1a0671ee3df46SPG-HCOB EZ PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b4bd322643a349e99e8d6f8c290051e0Jibun Japan PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/7a339d18dce843d68203c0455cb84caahttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Michael Saylor's Strategy sold $700 million in preferred stock Friday, but with an eye-opening 10% dividend attached to be paid in cash. Not stock. Not coins. It was the second straight preferred sale in as many months, though the first one went off at only 8%. Security sales. Trying to get govts and Big Tech to buy Bitcoin. What is going on in the world of BTC? There's a huge STORY here, one that's bigger than Saylor. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisMSTF Pfd Stock Mar 2025https://www.strategy.com/press/strategy-announces-pricing-of-strf-perpetual-preferred-stock_03-21-2025MSTR Pfd Stock Jan 2025https://www.strategy.com/press/microstrategy-announces-pricing-of-strike-preferred-stock-offering-strk_01-31-2025MSTR Convertible Notes Nov 2024https://www.strategy.com/press/microstrategy-completes-3-billion-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes-due-2029-at-0-coupon-and-55-conversion-premium_11-21-2024Bitcoin is perfect moneyhttps://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/1902757116747612169SEC Filings 10-Q Strategy (MSTR)https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001050446/000095017025021814/mstr-20241231.htm#item_8_financial_statements_supplementarMichael Saylor A Digital Assets Strategy to Dominate the 21st Century Global Economyhttps://www.michael.com/a-digital-assets-strategyReason El Salvador Walks Back Its Bitcoin Lawhttps://reason.com/2025/02/03/el-salvador-walks-back-its-bitcoin-law/elsalvador.com https://www.elsalvador.com/noticias/negocios/bitcoin-el-salvador-criptomonedas-iudop-/1194324/2025/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/I am also doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Canary in the coalmine. Not Mag Seven, Russell. The macroeconomic warnings are coming in from all direction. Small caps. AI bubble. Macro data. Even the Federal Reserve isn't so certain these days. With Nike and FedEx the latest to offer their $0.02, it's a bit more than mere "uncertainty."Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Following the Fed, the Swiss, Swedes and BoE. Plus a shocking drop in Australian employment that's going to be a factor for RBA, too. Whatever central bankers say today, it's what they're already doing which matters. The upshot is that those currently not engaged in the global race to the bottom (interest rates) are increasingly likely to re-enter it. Mr. Powell, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSNB statementhttps://www.snb.ch/public/publication/en/www-snb-ch/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20250320/0_en/pre_20250320.en.pdfCNBC International Interview w/SNB's Martin Schlegelhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGghKflsrngBloomberg Swiss Watch Exports Resume Drop on Weak China, US Demandhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-20/swiss-watch-exports-drop-in-february-on-weak-demand-in-china-usMorningstar Bank of England votes 8-1 to keep interest rates on hold at 4.50%https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1742473139383901300/bank-of-england-votes-8-1-to-keep-interest-rates-on-hold-at-450.aspxBloomberg Sweden’s Riksbank Holds Rate Steady and Says Easing Is Overhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-20/sweden-s-riksbank-holds-rate-steady-and-signals-easing-is-overRiksbank May 2024 statementhttps://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-report/2024/monetary-policy-decision-may-2024/FOMC SEP (and dots)https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6The only question is how long the Fed can hold out, not if. With other central banks racing toward the bottom already, the fact those around the FOMC are also speaking with more forceful concerns - even downgrading - their expectations has the Fed effectively trapped, only a step maybe two away from re-entering that same race. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Growth Downgrades Appear on Wall Street Amid Policy Turmoilhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-03-10/us-recession-growth-downgrades-appear-on-wall-street-amid-policy-turmoilAtlanta Fed GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowAtlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 adjustmentshttps://www.linkedin.com/pulse/gdp-forecasters-some-gold-doesnt-glitter-atlantafed-fxb2e/?trackingId=IKtl2qJkTya%2FgvCxax%2FXEQ%3D%3DBloomberg Fed Needs to Raise Threat of ‘Bad News’ Rate Cuts, El-Erian Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/el-erian-says-fed-needs-to-raise-threat-of-bad-news-rate-cutshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/I am also doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6After credit spreads had narrowed to near historic lows last month, they've made a major move off them. In fact, the rise in spreads has already equaled last summer. But this year's credit selloff has begun to spread to other segments of the marketplace, including sharp price changes in risky assets like leveraged loans and even private equity. And there is a small hint of yen.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6The big drop in retail sales in January turns out to have been even bigger - much more. And then February consumer spending failed to rebound from it, coming in way below expectations, too. Add retail sales to the growing list on the side of "recession scare." Plus, the bad start to 2025 confirms a whole lot more on that side. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Disappointing Retail Sales Add to Concerns About US Outlookhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-17/us-retail-sales-rise-by-less-than-forecast-after-january-dropNFR CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Shows February Sales Were Down Monthly Amid Tariff Concernshttps://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/cnbc-nrf-retail-monitor-shows-february-sales-were-down-monthly-amid-tariff-concernsBloomberg The US Economic Outlook Is Becoming More Uncertainhttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-17/the-us-economic-outlook-is-becoming-more-uncertainBloomberg Gen Z’s Job Recession Needs Urgent Attentionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-17/gen-z-job-recession-needs-urgent-attentionhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6The return of zero interest rates. Not in some distant future, right now. A major central bank will be debating the potential return of ZIRP this week. And it is far from alone; policy rates aren't just falling all over the world, they're already a lot closer to the historical lows everyone said we'd never see again. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Foreign companies are fleeing China in droves as the government there is now smack in the middle of an epic borrowing spree. Those two things are related, both stemming from the same major deficiency: banks. Not central banks; actual banks. And China's institutions continue to explore new depths. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Chinese Stocks Surge as Beijing Plans Briefing on Consumptionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-14/consumer-stocks-drive-china-benchmark-to-highest-level-this-yearBloomberg China Has Record Foreign Investment Outflow as $168 Billion Exithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-14/china-has-record-foreign-investment-outflow-as-168-billion-exithttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU