Eurodollar University

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6The return of zero interest rates. Not in some distant future, right now. A major central bank will be debating the potential return of ZIRP this week. And it is far from alone; policy rates aren't just falling all over the world, they're already a lot closer to the historical lows everyone said we'd never see again. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Foreign companies are fleeing China in droves as the government there is now smack in the middle of an epic borrowing spree. Those two things are related, both stemming from the same major deficiency: banks. Not central banks; actual banks. And China's institutions continue to explore new depths. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Chinese Stocks Surge as Beijing Plans Briefing on Consumptionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-14/consumer-stocks-drive-china-benchmark-to-highest-level-this-yearBloomberg China Has Record Foreign Investment Outflow as $168 Billion Exithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-14/china-has-record-foreign-investment-outflow-as-168-billion-exithttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/I am also doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6The global "race to the bottom" for interest rates is already well underway, more than most people might think. They've been led to believe it's just a few rate cuts here or there, when the reality is very different. The Bank of Canada is a perfect example, a central bank that has already lowered its rates by a ton. Markets and fundamentals all say there's more coming; the rate race is far from over. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Delta airlines in January said business was booming and that the company had confidence there was no end in sight Yesterday, the CEO called the first quarter a "parade of horribles" as economic "uncertainty" spoiled everything. Delta was not alone and not just in terms of airlines. There isn't economic uncertainty, the opposite is taking hold including what was in the February CPI. Not only did it confirm the latest from the carriers, there was a whole lot more in it beside. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisDallas Morning News Walmart CEO warns food prices are causing ‘frustration and pain’https://www.dallasnews.com/business/retail/2025/03/03/walmart-ceo-warns-food-prices-are-causing-frustration-and-pain/Delta Airlines 8-khttps://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000027904/11d5a8ff-be02-448c-84f4-463a77b3365f.pdfBloomberg Delta Air Surges After Bet on More Premium Seats Pays Offhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/delta-tops-profit-estimates-on-overseas-business-travel-reboundIBD Delta, American Dive On Slashed Outlooks; But Two Airlines Rallyhttps://www.investors.com/news/delta-air-lines-cuts-q1-2025-guidance-demand-delta-stock-dal/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/I am also doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6While the world is lost in the "recession scare", China comes along and adds its considerable deflationary weight to it by reporting more outright price deflation. Both consumer and producer. Together with a sharp drop in imports, this global loss of macro momentum is certainly not lost on China. That can only mean one thing: more government debt. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNN China’s deflation problems get worsehttps://www.cnn.com/2025/03/10/economy/china-cpi-deflation-problems-intl-hnk/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Stocks plunged, bond yields dropped, the R-word is now the common phrase in the media...Jay Powell says everything is just fine and dandy. Even the President is now cautioning the economy might be going through a "transition" and the markets more and more can't get away from it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Bond Market’s Trump Trade Is Looking Like a Recession Playhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-09/the-bond-market-s-trump-trade-is-looking-like-a-recession-tradeBloomberg Treasuries Gain as Trump Transition Talk Fuels Recession Angsthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-10/us-credit-risk-rises-as-tariffs-job-cuts-stoke-recession-fearsJay Powell in Chicagohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6pZzfv8AQENBC Dow falls nearly 900 points and Nasdaq dives 4% as stock selloff gathers steamhttps://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/stocks-tank-trump-declines-dismiss-recession-risk-rcna195653https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Hot on the heels of the big drop in employment, global trade soared at the absolute wrong time and for all the wrong reasons. Both point to the same huge loss of economic momentum, now seen coming from places all over the world. China, Canada...even the USA. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Macy's is yet another with a warning on the economy just in time for the payroll numbers on February. They were a disaster if hardly anyone saw the true scale of it. Macy's might have a sense, as do other retailers. The data shows there really is big time trouble brewing in the jobs market.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSign up for our free March 24 webinar on the big emerging global trends: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6WSJ Macy’s Expects Sales to Drop Again This Yearhttps://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/macys-q4-earnings-results-m-stock-d3da1b6aCNBC U.S. payroll growth totals 151,000 in February, less than expectedhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/jobs-report-february-2025.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free March 24 webinar right here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Another bazooka, this time from Germany, of all places. The mere thought of it has been enough to send the German bond market into a tailspin and sending yields to nearly their highest in fourteen years while also pulling other parts of the marketplace into it, too. Does the selloff signal inflation, success, or something else entirely? What are the implications for everyone else?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisPolitico Germany moves to overhaul debt rules to unleash major defense spendinghttps://www.politico.eu/article/germany-unveils-e500-billion-defense-plan-as-security-threats-mount/Roberto Perotti What Do We Know about the Effects of Fiscal Policy?https://www.siepweb.it/siep/wp/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/1397925830013.pdfWilson, Daniel J.. 2012. "Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4 (3): 251–82.https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/pol.4.3.251https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Target issued another warning on the economy and then joined Best Buy as merely the first to say they're raising prices. While that may sound inflationary, it's the opposite and will end up pushing interest rates even lower. Those are already happening in the market, in part as markets more confidently price how the Fed is going to have to follow along, too. Just like last summer. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Target, Best Buy Warn US Consumers of Tariff Price Hikeshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/target-sees-flat-sales-this-year-warns-of-risk-from-tariffsBloomberg Traders Pile Into Fed Rate-Cut Bets as Tariffs Roil Marketshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/us-yield-curve-steepens-on-growth-angst-with-tariffs-now-realityAtlanta Fed GDPNowhttps://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Stocks are getting hit, with bond yields tumbling. The "growth scare" gets louder as the luxury car brand just confirmed it's heading for the worst, no longer willing to hold out for economic strength everyone talks about yet never happens. The forgot how to grow economy is firmly at risk of remembering traditional recession mechanics. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWSJ Mercedes-Benz Plans to Cut Jobs as Earnings Expected to Slumphttps://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/mercedes-benz-plans-cost-cuts-as-earnings-expected-to-fall-this-year-6268813aBloomberg S&P 500 Sees Worst Selloff in 2025 as Bonds Climb: Markets Wraphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-02/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updatesISM Feb 2025https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/february/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Not a good week for financial markets. Oil down. Rates sunk. Stocks hit. Crypto crashing. Why? The "growth scare" is back. Or, at least, it's back in the mainstream. In reality, it never left and certain financial markets are being forced to reckon with this. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreAtlanta Fed GDPNowhttps://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The new guy at the RBI said he wasn't going to interfere with the rupee as much as his predecessor. Apparently, the dollar has left him with little choice. It’s the fundamentals that matter. And even India is showing more signs of forgetting how to grow. That’s why the dollar has been on a rampage again and why RBI can't let it go. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg India Central Bank’s Short Dollar Book Hit Record $77.5 Billionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-28/india-central-bank-s-short-dollar-book-hit-record-77-5-billionIndia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Indiahttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2025/02/27/India-2024-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-562726IMF 2018https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2018/08/07/NA080818-India-Strong-Economy-Continues-to-Lead-Global-GrowthMacroVoices Mar-a-lago Accordhttps://macrovoices.podbean.com/e/macrovoices-469-jeff-snider-the-mar-a-lago-accord-seen-through-a-eurodollar-lens/At YT:https://youtu.be/qeu6vrqZ980https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

European banks are surging into safety, buying the third most on record in January. At the same time, they scaled back activities in the real economy expecting further deterioration. Their behavior also backs up market pricing especially interest rates, while also exposing the fallacy behind them. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisECB BLS Q4 2024https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/bank_lending_survey/html/ecb.blssurvey2024q4~e1ddae0f19.en.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Why now? After teasing a bank recapitalization plan as part of last year's "bazooka", the CCP did nothing about it over the five months since raising the matter. Total silence. Now, all of a sudden, news banks are going to get their equity after all. What changed? There are a few suspects, starting with growing turmoil in money markets alongside more problems with real estate. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg China to Inject at Least $55 Billion of Fresh Capital Into Several Big Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-26/china-plans-to-start-bank-capital-hike-with-at-least-55-billionBloomberg China’s Property Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phasehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-02-11/china-s-real-estate-crisis-property-sector-debt-is-getting-worseWapo CHINA ANNOUNCES LARGE BOND ISSUE TO BAIL OUT BANKShttps://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1998/03/01/china-announces-large-bond-issue-to-bail-out-banks/adcac8da-fe39-4b4c-90c0-13739847f35c/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, check out what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Rates are down sharply, so much the broad yield curve re-inverted from one critical spot. Given the macro context with crashing consumer confidence and a steep loss of economic momentum, particularly in the services sector, that re-inversion along with a multi-month low in 2-year yields is telling us everything we need to know. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Treasury Yields Slide as Confidence Gauge Stokes Economy Fearshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-25/treasuries-rally-as-traders-boost-bets-on-fed-interest-rate-cutsConference Board Consumer Confidencehttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidencehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Is there trouble brewing in the AI bubble? A report came out earlier today that Microsoft was scaling back its investments, one the company denied. Its substance, however, aligns with everything else that's going on, from Warren Buffett curiously choosing not to explain Berkshire's stock selling to the deteriorating conditions in South Korea. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Microsoft Dropped Some AI Data Center Leases, TD Cowen Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-24/microsoft-cancels-leases-for-ai-data-centers-analyst-saysBloomberg South Korea’s Chip Exports Lead Trade Gains Fueling Economyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-01/south-korea-s-chip-exports-lead-trade-gains-supporting-economyDow Jones South Korea Government Expects Economy to Slow in 2025https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202501011398/south-korea-government-expects-economy-to-slow-in-2025Bloomberg Bank of Korea Rate Cut Not a Done Deal This Month, Rhee Warnshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-06/bank-of-korea-s-rhee-leaves-door-open-to-another-rate-holdhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, check out what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Walmart the latest to issue a warning. SPG's PMIs crack, particularly services. Consumer confidence tanks. And they call it "uncertainty."Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreSPG PMI press releasehttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c3a10cc3461d4d8aa1758082292e7358https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A tinderbox waiting to explode? When spreads are this low, and complacency this high, that means everyone is on one side the market. Not because they want to be, they have to be. And they all believe that they'll be able to get to the exits even though everyone is searching for the same signals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Money Managers See Dangers in Credit’s Eerie Calmhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-17/credit-s-eerie-calm-has-some-money-managers-seeing-danger-signsBloomberg Junk Bond Guru Sees Rising Distress Ahead as Banks Tighten Lendinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-15/junk-bond-guru-fridson-sees-rising-distress-ahead-credit-weeklyBIS The market turbulence and carry trade unwind of August 2024https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull90.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

WTF!? This really better be a stunt or a bad joke because if it's not then we're faced with more bad economics. This proposal is exactly the SH&% that is supposed to be ending. The government wouldn't be giving anyone "their" money back, just borrowing more to make it look like that would what happens. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisMilton Friedman - Tyranny of the Status Quo - Part 1 - Beneficiaries w/ David Brookshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRXEk7su62wThe Hill Adviser behind ‘DOGE dividend’ check program: It’s reasonablehttps://thehill.com/business/5154650-james-fishback-donald-trump-elon-musk-doge-dividends/Fox $5,000 DOGE check? Trump backs idea to send some savings to Americanshttps://www.fox9.com/news/5000-doge-dividend-check-trump-backs-savings-americansCBO https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/60870-By-the-Numbers.pdfhttps://www.cbo.gov/publication/60870#:~:text=The%20Budget%20Outlook-,Deficits,to%20%242.7%20trillion%20by%202035.https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The last central bank finally gives in to reality, joining the rate cutting cycle in one final blow to higher for longer. This brings RBA closer to its neighbor RBNZ even though, on the surface, the two seem far apart in every respect. For all this alleged differences, however, the dollar has drastically other ideas which is why dollar for dollar for dollar, they're all the same globally synchronized. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Australia’s central bank cuts rates for the first time in more than four years, flags economic uncertaintieshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/18/australia-central-bank-cuts-interest-rate-for-the-first-time-in-over-four-years.htmlBloomberg ECB’s Panetta Says Economic Weakness Is Worse Than Expectedhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-19/ecb-s-panetta-says-economic-weakness-is-worse-than-expectedBloomberg New Zealand to Slow Pace of Easing After Third Big Rate Cuthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-19/new-zealand-delivers-third-big-rate-cut-to-revive-ailing-economyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The poor economy brought down Germany's government. With the election looming on Sunday, attention turns to who will take over. The inconvenient truth, for the economy, is that it doesn't matter. The whole world needs to stop looking for answers from politicians who have NONE. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters German voters demand change as Europe's biggest economy stallshttps://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-voters-demand-change-europes-biggest-economy-stalls-2025-02-17/Bloomberg German Investor Outlook Jumps Most in Two Years Before Votehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-18/german-investor-outlook-improves-most-in-two-years-before-voteBloomberg What’s in Store for Germany as Far-Right AfD Eyes Big Election Gains?https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-18/germany-election-what-to-know-as-far-right-afd-boosted-by-musk-in-spotlightNYT Keynesianism Explained https://archive.nytimes.com/krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/09/15/keynesianism-explained/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Warren Buffett continues to sell stocks. But it's not just disposing of stocks, which ones. At the same time, even Wall Street is beginning to take note of the dangers over dramatic complacency in risk markets like junk credit along with stocks. With both marketplaces waiting for a recession each recognizes, they're being eroded by the one we already have. That could very well explain why the selling continued at Berkshire. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFortune Buffett sold more BofA stock while keeping Apple stake intacthttps://fortune.com/2025/02/14/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-bank-of-america-stock-apple-stake-q4/Berkshire Hathaway 13-Fhttps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000095012325002701/xslForm13F_X02/39042.xmlBloomberg Junk Bond Guru Sees Rising Distress Ahead as Banks Tighten Lendinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-15/junk-bond-guru-fridson-sees-rising-distress-ahead-credit-weeklyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

From the outside, everything that could have gone wrong for bonds did. CPI. PPI. Auctions. Hawks. You name it. Despite all that, what bond yields did instead points to deeper fundamentals that are never talked about by mainstream sources - including the new Treasury Secretary. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Amazon warned the start of 2025 was rough, and boy was it. Government data on consumer spending as well goods production came in exactly that way. And while extreme winter weather played a role in each one, it was clearly the opposite of what everyone says. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNYT Amazon Says Profits Rose 88% but Cautions Growth May Slowhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/06/technology/amazon-earnings-profits.htmlCNN US retail spending plunged last month, falling for the first time since Augusthttps://www.cnn.com/2025/02/14/economy/us-retail-spending-january/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

India has suffered a major currency drop, serious interbank liquidity problems, one of the largest central bank FX interventions in its history, a stock rout, and, for good measure, the third of three straight negative CPIs. And that's just the last four days. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg India Central Bank Punishes Rupee Speculators in Surprise Movehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-11/india-central-bank-intervenes-to-curb-speculative-rupee-betsReters Indian central bank hikes overnight fund infusion post heavy FX interventionhttps://www.reuters.com/business/finance/indian-central-bank-infuse-record-overnight-funds-post-heavy-fx-intervention-2025-02-12/Bloomberg Modi Returns to US With Lost Clout as Stock, Economic Boom Fadeshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-12/modi-returns-to-us-with-lost-clout-as-stock-economic-boom-fadesBloomberg Indian Stocks Trim Losses as Dip Buying Provides Respitehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-12/indian-stocks-slump-to-lowest-since-june-as-global-funds-fleehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Shocker of a CPI report; or was it? The bigger shock came afterward when Chevron stunned with its massive shake-up. At the same time - and for the same reasons - the oil market is undergoing a dramatic change of its own. And these are far from inflationary. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBLS January CPIhttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htmCNBC Chevron will slash up to 20% of its workforce as part of cost-cutting planhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/chevron-will-slash-up-to-20percent-of-its-workforce-as-part-of-cost-cutting-plan.htmlBarrons Chevron to Lay Off Up to 20% of Workers. Why the Oil Industry Is Slimming Down.https://www.barrons.com/articles/chevron-layoffs-oil-dividends-05fb9b8aWSJ Chevron Slashes Spending, Announces Job Cutshttps://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-12-05-2024/card/chevron-slashes-spending-announces-job-cuts-giqWm4lRhl4XDmoPDxvdCNBC Prices rose more than expected in January as inflation won’t go awayhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/cpi-inflation-january-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-january-more-than-expected-as-the-annual-rate-moved-to-3point1percent.htmlCNN The Fed might not be done raising interest rates just yethttps://www.cnn.com/2024/04/11/economy/fed-interest-rate-hike-probability/index.htmlRueters Inflation-wary US rate options market cautiously prices for 2024 Fed hikehttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/inflation-wary-us-rate-options-market-cautiously-prices-2024-fed-hike-2024-04-29/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

We're finding more and more evidence in 2025 that escaping the economy of the past few years won't be so easy and neat as many were hoping. The golden arches reported their worst sales estimates for American stores since the lockdowns. Those results fit with other retailers struggling mightily among other commercial segments, as data now suggests consumer fears over the labor market are compounding the downturn. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC McDonald’s revenue disappoints, as U.S. sales see worst drop since pandemichttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/10/mcdonalds-mcd-q4-2024-earnings.htmlCNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/03/why-dollar-general-and-dollar-tree-are-struggling.htmlhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/03/why-dollar-general-and-dollar-tree-are-struggling.htmlBloomberg Shein's Growth is Hurting Discount Retailers as Store Closures Surgehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-02-11/shein-and-temu-s-growth-is-hurting-discount-retailers-ahead-of-tariffsTarget https://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/11/target-corporation-reports-third-quarter-earningshttps://corporate.target.com/press/release/2025/01/target-corporation-provides-holiday-sales-update,-announces-leadership-team-changesFRBNY SCEhttps://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/Bloomberg US Consumer Sentiment Drops to Seven-Month Low on Price Worrieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-07/us-consumer-sentiment-drops-to-seven-month-low-on-price-worrieshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Auto exports out of Mexico plunged in January. While bad news for the struggling Mexican economy, this is more evidence for the growing global backlash of which the car business is right in the middle of. Cars aren't a victim but now a cause for concern the world over - including the primary reason for the struggle to begin with. America. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg German Industrial Production Falls Most in Five Months on Carshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-07/german-industrial-production-falls-most-in-five-months-on-carsBloomberg German Government Slashes 2025 Forecast Before Snap Electionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-29/german-government-slashes-growth-forecast-before-snap-electionhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Mexico is now the latest to accelerate, upping its ante as the situation reaches a critical turning point. It's been coming for a long time, yet central bankers worldwide now have a convenient excuse to cover the deterioration. The same one American consumers are now fretting with confidence rolling over and going sharply lower. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Complete mess. Payrolls revised massively lower. The govt discovers three million people and assumes two million were employed this whole time. More important than those, hours are shrinking to the point the average workweek is the lowest its been since MARCH 2020. Strong and resilient, as always. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBLS Employment Situationhttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmBLS Adjustments to Household Survey Population Estimates in January 2025https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps-pop-control-adjustments.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A major shift is underway now at the Bank of England. After being among the most cautious central banks it is being forced more to the dovish side. Even one of the most arch-hawks in all global central banking ditched her previous opposition to any rate cuts in order to urge a fifty-bps cut today! More reactions to the consequences from a world that forgot how to grow. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Bond yields have fallen sharply over the past two weeks, having now roundtripped the past two FOMC meetings, going all the way back to where they'd been before the "hawkish rate cut" in December. Latest data on the services economy go a long way to explaining why, with signs of one-offs and non-economic artificial factors more and more coming out of it.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Bond ‘Death Spiral’ Risk Brushed Aside by Foreign Fundshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-16/treasuries-death-spiral-risk-is-brushed-aside-by-foreign-fundsBloomberg Working Americans Turn to Food Banks as Fed Inflation Battle Drags Onhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-01-27/us-inflation-leads-families-to-struggle-for-food-fed-debates-rate-pathhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

No one is hiring yet no one is firing. The latter doesn't mean employers aren't getting rid of workers, because they are. Lots of them. A hiring freeze is only the first part of cost-cutting in a weak economy. From consumer surveys to govt jobs estimates, the labor market is on everyone's mind right now, employers and employees. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNissan offers buyouts as US production scales backhttps://www.automotivedive.com/news/nissan-buyouts-workforce-production-reduction-2025-tennessee-mississippi/738816/NBC News Bridgestone closes a tire plant in Tennessee with 700 layoffs and other reductionshttps://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/bridgestone-announces-tire-plant-closure-tennessee-700-layoffs-reducti-rcna189277Bloomberg STMicro Eyes Workforce Cuts of Up to 3,000 in Chip Slumphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-31/stmicro-eyes-workforce-cuts-of-up-to-6-as-chip-slump-drags-onUS Consumer Confidence Retreated in Januaryhttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Jan-2025https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Opening round of the 2025 trade wars. Mexico and Canada in the crosshairs. Neither of them stood a chance. The pounding started even before the negotiations began. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNYT Here’s What to Know About Trump’s Tariffshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/01/business/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china.htmlTruth Social, Trump Mexico Messagehttps://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113940711907400754Bloomberg Car Prices Face $3,000 Increase as Automakers Worry Over Tariffshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-02/car-prices-face-3-000-increase-as-trump-tariffs-hit-auto-sectorFinancial Post Trump takes aim at Canada's banking sector as tariffs loomhttps://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/trump-takes-aim-canada-banking-sector-tariffs-loomLive updates: Trump discusses tariffs with Canada and Mexicohttps://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/live-blog/trump-canada-mexico-tariffs-live-updates-rcna190371As Trade War Intensifies, Watch for Soaring Inflation, July 2018https://assuredam.com/2018/07/as-trade-war-intensifies-watch-out-for-inflation/FOMC Transcript June 2019https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20190619meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Gold has been soaring all of 2025 so far, reaching a new all-time high this past week as yet another major cyclical warning was triggered. Trade wars may account for some of the urgency, the real story is how in a world that's entirely artificial more in it desperately demand something real. It's getting easier to sort what's real from so much fakery. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreBloomberg STMicro Eyes Workforce Cuts of Up to 3,000 in Chip Slumphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-31/stmicro-eyes-workforce-cuts-of-up-to-6-as-chip-slump-drags-onhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Silicon Valley Bank's failure in March 2023 kicked off a chain of events that has cascaded across money, banks, and the real economy. The world economy didn't forget how to grow, the banking crisis of early '23 proved to be the final inflection point. Central banks may have won the battle over banks, then lost the war where it truly mattered. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Banks are in full-on defensive mode, GDP is in a huge and growing hole, and central bankers are realizing they're stuck no matter what. The end of last year for Europe stands as a stark warning that this global transition remains far from over with - even after two years of it already. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisECB statementhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/activities/mopo/html/index.en.htmlBloomberg ECB Cuts Rates for Fifth Time as Euro-Zone Economy Flatlineshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-30/ecb-cuts-rates-for-fifth-time-as-euro-zone-economy-flatlinesBloomberg Traders’ ECB Rate Cut Bets Fuel Biggest Yield Drop in Two Monthshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-30/german-two-year-yields-slump-as-traders-boost-ecb-rate-cut-betshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Reviewing the Fed, the Canadians, Sweden, and previewing the ECB. Market reactions and what really happened at the FOMC.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Bets on Big Treasuries Rally Are Booming Before Fed Decisionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-28/bets-on-bigger-treasuries-rally-are-booming-before-fed-decisionBloomberg Traders Bet ECB Will Need to Deepen and Accelerate Rate Cutshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-29/traders-bet-ecb-will-need-to-deepen-and-accelerate-rate-cutshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Shipping rates have plunged in January. The sinking demand for raw materials is another warning about the state of the economy in 2025. It was one echoed yet again by American consumers who, after a short reprieve on rate cuts and election, are right back to worrying about jobs and incomes all over again.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisInvestopediahttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/baltic_dry_index.aspBloomberg US Consumer Confidence Drops to Four-Month Low on Job Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-28/us-consumer-confidence-drops-to-four-month-low-on-job-marketConference Board https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidencehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Chinese banks are the real story, even as China's government (intentionally?) stole the spotlight with its AI-knock-off, a distraction from the latest real economy warning and most importantly the banking sector's latest. The credit crisis in the latter may finally be coming to a head as it keeps the former from stabilizing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisAA Xi Jinpinghttps://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/on-chinese-new-year-s-eve-xi-vows-to-confront-challenges-without-hesitation-/3463706Bloomberg China’s Economy Stumbles in Sign Rebound Hinges on More Stimulushttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-27/china-s-factory-activity-cools-ahead-of-major-new-year-holidayBloomberg China Starts Lowering Price Goals to Match Deflationary Realityhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-24/china-starts-lowering-price-goals-to-match-deflationary-realityBloomberg Markets Sound Alarm Over Deflationary Spiral in Chinahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-07/china-investors-sound-alarm-over-japan-style-deflation-as-yields-hit-record-lowBloomberg Hong Kong’s Property Distress Is Catching Up With City’s Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-26/hong-kong-s-property-distress-is-catching-up-with-city-s-bankshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

South Korea is the latest to fall into "forgot how to grow" and Texas Instruments showed the world why. Both were slammed this week for getting to the same place from different perspectives. Critical cyclical indications that shocked the consensus. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreBloomberg Texas Instruments Suffers Worst Rout Since 2020 on Weak Forecasthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-23/texas-instruments-outlook-signals-chip-slump-is-persistinghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

While the dollar was screaming higher the past few months, that eurodollar disorder had foreign govts absolutely raiding their reserves, money dealers hoarding record amounts of collateral and record Treasuries being piled up by depositories. And those were just the beginning. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

President Trump created quite a stir in his speech to Davos, demanding, among other things, lower oil prices from OPEC plus lower interest rates out of Jay Powell. In fact, those two are linked with the one expected to pave the way for the other. What's the real game here? More important, what are the chances this can work?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Trump Urges Lower Oil Prices, Interest Rate Cuts at Davoshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-23/trump-urges-opec-to-lower-oil-prices-warns-of-tariffs-at-davosCNBC President Donald Trump says he’ll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately’https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/23/president-donald-trump-says-hell-demand-that-interest-rates-drop-immediately.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Tariffs on Mexico and Canada begin on February 1, or do they? Whether President Trump is merely posturing or not, the threat is real and the situation globally they would be starting from makes for a difficult mix. That's why the dollar is rising, rates are falling, and real economy variables are already experiencing significant pressure.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Trump Plans to Impose 25% Tariffs on Mexico, Canada by Feb. 1https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-21/trump-plans-to-enact-25-tariffs-on-mexico-canada-by-feb-1WSJ The Big Risk of a Trade War: Inflationhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/the-big-risk-of-a-trade-war-inflation-1522926022Bloomberg Why the Freight Market Is Stuckhttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-17/j-b-hunt-warning-shows-freight-is-stuck-in-placeRueters Canadian dollar posts biggest decline among G10 currencieshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/canadian-dollar-posts-biggest-decline-among-g10-currencies-2025-01-16/Bloomberg Trump’s Pledge to Slap 25% Tariffs on Mexico Sinks Pesohttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-21/trump-s-pledge-to-slap-25-tariffs-on-mexico-sinks-pesohttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

UK payrolls took a massive hit in both November AND December. While the media looks for reasons to blame, the answer instead comes from all the rest of the world. Unemployment is on the rise all over the place, with the situations in some of them going way beyond softening or weakness. More than a few places you might not think of having a major employment downturn are, a warning to the world this is getting really serious. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Surprise UK Retail Sales Drop Fuels Economic Growth Worrieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-17/uk-retail-sales-fall-in-latest-setback-for-struggling-economyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Many regulators worry there is the potential for systemic crisis begun by so-called shadow banks. The banks you already know are the last one. In the decade and a half since 2008 the eurodollar world has evolved yet again. The aftermath of that last one opened the door to go back into the shadows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Lays Path for More Financial Giants to Get Fed Oversighthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-03/yellen-lays-path-for-more-financial-giants-to-get-fed-oversightBloomberg Shadow Bank Loans From US Lenders Surpass $1 Trillion in Fed Datahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-10/shadow-bank-loans-from-us-lenders-surpass-1-trillion-in-fed-dataIMF Shadow Banks: Out of the Eyes of Regulatorshttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/Shadow-Bankshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The verdict for the Christmas season is in and...not good. Consumers wanted to spend. They tried to spend. They couldn't spend, not what they wanted or retailers needed. Americans simply don't have enough funds and so the downturn marches on. Eurodollar University's conversation with Steve Van MetreSignet Jewelers Announces Holiday Sales Resultshttps://www.signetjewelers.com/investors/financial-news-releases/financial-news-release/2025/Signet-Jewelers-Announces-Holiday-Sales-Results/default.aspxAmericans Are Spending Less On Streaming Services – Here’s Whyhttps://9meters.com/entertainment/streaming/americans-are-on-average-spending-less-on-streaming-services-in-2024-compared-to-the-previous-yearhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Germany's economy is doing something we've never seen before. Not only did it contract for the second straight year, that's not even the most amazing part. The general pattern it is taking is one that is being repeated all around the world. It's as if the entire global economy stopped growing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg German Economy Shrinks for Second Year in New Blow to Scholzhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/german-economy-shrinks-for-second-straight-year-before-electionIFO Press Release Germany: Europe's largest economy is facing a third consecutive year of recessionhttps://www.ifo.de/en/press-release/2024-12-19/headcount-reduction-germany-more-likely-december-2024Sky News https://news.sky.com/story/germany-europes-largest-economy-is-facing-a-third-consecutive-year-of-recession-13289549Bloomberg ECB Will Keep Easing With Economy Losing Momentum, Guindos Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/ecb-will-keep-easing-with-economy-losing-momentum-guindos-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China's money markets have started to come unglued, with serious illiquidity driving up money rates. Despite provoking one of the largest liquidity operations in twenty years from the PBOC yesterday, the disorder came back even worse today. All of this against the backdrop of a currency fight and the prospect China's bank credit problem becomes a full-blown liquidity crisis. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg China's Central Bank Pumps Near-Historic Level of Cash Into Financial Systemhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/pboc-dials-up-short-term-liquidity-injections-amid-cash-squeezeBloomberg China Cash Squeeze Rolls on Even After Central Bank’s Infusionshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-16/china-cash-squeeze-rolls-on-even-after-pboc-liquidity-boostshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU