EA Forum Podcast (Curated & popular)

<p> Cross-posted from my blog.</p><p> Contrary to my carefully crafted brand as a weak nerd, I go to a local CrossFit gym a few times a week. Every year, the gym raises funds for a scholarship for teens from lower-income families to attend their summer camp program. I don’t know how many Crossfit-interested low-income teens there are in my small town, but I’ll guess there are perhaps 2 of them who would benefit from the scholarship. After all, CrossFit is pretty niche, and the town is small.</p><p> Helping youngsters get swole in the Pacific Northwest is not exactly as cost-effective as preventing malaria in Malawi. But I notice I feel drawn to supporting the scholarship anyway. Every time it pops in my head I think, “My money could fully solve this problem”. The camp only costs a few hundred dollars per kid and if there are just 2 kids who [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:19) You are only ever making small dents in important problems</p><p>(03:06) The man who failed to fully solve a genocide</p><p>(06:29) Saving starfish</p><p>(07:40) Big problems are actually solved piece by piece</p> <p><i>The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 19th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZKfFoo8ttD9NEpKHv/you-probably-won-t-solve-malaria-or-x-risk-and-that-s-ok?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZKfFoo8ttD9NEpKHv/you-probably-won-t-solve-malaria-or-x-risk-and-that-s-ok</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/ZKfFoo8ttD9NEpKHv/qefd9awdgpboweim9dye" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/ZKfFoo8ttD9NEpKHv/qefd9awdgpboweim9dye" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<h4 data-internal-id="TL_DR_">TL;DR</h4><p> In a sentence: <br> We are shifting our strategic focus to put our proactive effort towards helping people work on safely navigating the transition to a world with AGI, while keeping our existing content up.</p><p> In more detail:</p><p> We think it's plausible that frontier AI companies will develop AGI by 2030. Given the significant risks involved, and the fairly limited amount of work that's been done to reduce these risks, 80,000 Hours is adopting a new strategic approach to focus our efforts in this area. </p><p> During 2025, we are prioritising:</p><ol> <li> Deepening our understanding as an organisation of how to improve the chances that the development of AI goes well</li><li> Communicating why and how people can contribute to reducing the risks</li><li> Connecting our users with impactful roles in this field</li><li> And fostering an internal culture which helps us to achieve these goals</li></ol><p> We remain focused on impactful [...]</p></br></p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:44) Why we're updating our strategic direction</p><p>(04:02) How we hope to achieve it</p><p>(05:44) Community implications</p><p>(08:38) Potential questions you might have</p><p>(08:42) What does this mean for non-AI cause areas?</p><p>(10:44) How big a shift is this from 80k's status quo?</p><p>(11:58) Are EA values still important?</p><p>(13:36) What would cause us to change our approach?</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 20th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4ZE3pfwDKqRRNRggL/80-000-hours-is-shifting-our-strategic-approach-to-focus?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4ZE3pfwDKqRRNRggL/80-000-hours-is-shifting-our-strategic-approach-to-focus</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> In my past year as a grantmaker in the global health and wellbeing (GHW) meta space at Open Philanthropy, I've identified some exciting ideas that could fill existing gaps. While these initiatives have significant potential, they require more active development and support to move forward. </p><p> The ideas I think could have the highest impact are: </p><ol> <li> Government placements/secondments in key GHW areas (e.g. international development), and</li><li> Expanded (ultra) high-net-worth ([U]HNW) advising</li></ol><p> Each of these ideas needs a very specific type of leadership and/or structure. More accessible options I’m excited about — particularly for students or recent graduates — could involve virtual GHW courses or action-focused student groups. </p><p> I can’t commit to supporting any particular project based on these ideas ahead of time, because the likelihood of success would heavily depend on details (including the people leading the project). Still, I thought it would be helpful to [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:19) Introduction</p><p>(02:30) Project ideas</p><p>(02:33) Fellowships and Placements</p><p>(02:37) Placement orgs for governments and think tanks</p><p>(03:06) Fellowships/Placements at GHW Organizations</p><p>(03:57) More, and different, effective giving organizations</p><p>(04:03) More (U)HNW advising</p><p>(05:14) Targeting different niche demographics</p><p>(05:50) Filling more geographic gaps</p><p>(06:08) Infrastructure support for GHW organizations</p><p>(06:38) EA-inspired GHW courses</p><p>(06:56) BlueDot Impact for GHW</p><p>(07:40) Incorporating EA content into university courses</p><p>(08:35) Useful GHW events</p><p>(08:51) Events bringing together EA and mainstream GHD orgs</p><p>(09:57) Career panels or similar</p><p>(10:13) More, and different, student groups</p><p>(10:18) Action-focused student groups</p><p>(11:34) Policy-focused grad student groups</p><p>(11:51) Less thought-through ideas</p><p>(13:12) Perceived impact and fit</p> <p><i>The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 18th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pAE6zfAgceCop6vcE/projects-i-d-like-to-see-in-the-ghw-meta-space?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pAE6zfAgceCop6vcE/projects-i-d-like-to-see-in-the-ghw-meta-space</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> Hey everyone, I’ve been going through the EA Introductory Program, and I have to admit some of these ideas make sense, but others leave me with more questions than answers. I’m trying to wrap my head around certain core EA principles, and the more I think about them, the more I wonder: Am I misunderstanding, or are there blind spots in EA's approach?</p><p> I’d really love to hear what others think. Maybe you can help me clarify some of my doubts. Or maybe you share the same reservations? Let's talk.</p><p><strong> Cause Prioritization. Does It Ignore Political and Social Reality?</strong></p><p> EA focuses on doing the most good per dollar, which makes sense in theory. But does it hold up when you apply it to real world contexts especially in countries like Uganda?</p><p> Take malaria prevention. It's a top EA cause because it's highly cost effective $5,000 can save a life [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:40) Cause Prioritization. Does It Ignore Political and Social Reality?</p><p>(01:53) Long termism. A Luxury When the Present Is in Crisis?</p><p>(03:01) AI Safety. A Real Threat or Just Overhyped?</p><p>(04:09) Earning to Give. A Powerful Strategy or a Moral Loophole?</p><p>(05:05) Global vs. Local Causes. Does Proximity Matter?</p><p>(06:06) Final Thoughts: What Am I Missing?</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 16th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sanhCrJohGjAyAxLr/ea-a-view-from?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sanhCrJohGjAyAxLr/ea-a-view-from</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> *Disclaimer* I am writing this post in a personal capacity; the opinions I express are my own and do not represent my employer.</p><p data-internal-id="ftnt_ref1" id="ftnt_ref1">I think that more people and orgs (especially nonprofits) should consider negotiating the cost of sizable expenses. In my experience, there is usually nothing to lose by respectfully asking to pay less, and doing so can sometimes save thousands or tens of thousands of dollars per hour. This is because negotiating doesn’t take very much time[1], savings can persist across multiple years, and counterparties can be surprisingly generous with discounts. Here are a few examples of expenses that may be negotiable:</p><p> For organizations</p><ul> <li> Software or news subscriptions<ul> <li> Of 35 corporate software and news providers I’ve negotiated with, 30 have been willing to provide discounts. These discounts range from 10% to 80%, with an average of around 40%.</li></ul></li><li> Leases<ul> <li> A friend was able [...]</li></ul></li></ul> <p><i>The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 10th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pufofnCukyN3hBamw/consider-haggling?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pufofnCukyN3hBamw/consider-haggling</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> Forethought[1] is a new AI macrostrategy research group cofounded by Max Dalton, Will MacAskill, Tom Davidson, and Amrit Sidhu-Brar.</p> <p> We are trying to figure out how to navigate the (potentially rapid) transition to a world with superintelligent AI systems. We aim to tackle the most important questions we can find, unrestricted by the current Overton window.</p> <p> More details on our website.</p> <p><strong> Why we exist</strong></p> <p> We think that AGI might come soon (say, modal timelines to mostly-automated AI R&D in the next 2-8 years), and might significantly accelerate technological progress, leading to many different challenges. We don’t yet have a good understanding of what this change might look like or how to navigate it. Society is not prepared.</p> <p> Moreover, we want the world to not just avoid catastrophe: we want to reach a really great future. We think about what this might be like (incorporating [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:34) Why we exist</p><p>(01:57) Research</p><p>(02:00) Research agendas</p><p>(03:13) Recent work</p><p>(03:34) Approach</p><p>(03:37) Comparison to other efforts</p><p>(04:14) Principles</p><p>(05:35) What you can do</p><p>(05:39) Engage with our research</p><p>(06:08) Apply to work with us</p><p>(06:25) Funding</p> <p><i>The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 11th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6JnTAifyqz245Kv7S/forethought-a-new-ai-macrostrategy-group?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6JnTAifyqz245Kv7S/forethought-a-new-ai-macrostrategy-group</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> This is a Draft Amnesty Week post. </p><p> Last year, an EA community member who was scoping out some projects related to diversity and inclusion in EA noted that one challenge was not knowing what had been tried before. I drafted this summary but never got it out the door. </p><p> The atmosphere around DEI interventions, in the US at least, is different than it was when I first drafted this. I’m not intending this as commentary as anything going on currently, but as finally publishing an old draft. The main update I've made is to add some demographic data that recently came out from the 2024 EA Survey.</p><p> I don’t mean this post as a claim that EAs have done all the right things. I mean it as a historical record so people can better gauge what's been tried over time, what might be worth trying differently, and [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:17) Organizational / program efforts</p><p>(08:07) Efforts in hiring / staffing at EA orgs</p><p>(11:58) Other research / content / major discussions in the community</p><p>(21:40) Demographic trends over time</p><p>(21:45) Location</p><p>(22:39) Race</p><p>(23:28) Gender</p><p>(24:35) Political views</p><p>(25:06) Age</p><p>(25:20) Experiences at events</p> <p><i>The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 4th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6FLvBaEwiiqf9JGEJ/history-of-projects-and-trends-on-diversity-in-ea?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6FLvBaEwiiqf9JGEJ/history-of-projects-and-trends-on-diversity-in-ea</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6FLvBaEwiiqf9JGEJ/qseeqyp363xxe0vmcoxa" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6FLvBaEwiiqf9JGEJ/qseeqyp363xxe0vmcoxa" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6FLvBaEwiiqf9JGEJ/lkteyedhzqyv7nhu5lql" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6FLvBaEwiiqf9JGEJ/lkteyedhzqyv7nhu5lql" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6FLvBaEwiiqf9JGEJ/qe5wfgesqkgmicvpcoxy" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6FLvBaEwiiqf9JGEJ/qe5wfgesqkgmicvpcoxy" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<p> Watching what is happening in the world -- with lots of renegotiation of institutional norms within Western democracies and a parallel fracturing of the post-WW2 institutional order -- I do think we, as a community, should more seriously question our priors on the relative value of surgical/targeted and broad system-level interventions.</p> <p> Speaking somewhat roughly, with EA as a movement coming of age in an era where democratic institutions and the rule-based international order were not fundamentally questioned, it seems easy to underestimate how much the world is currently changing and how much riskier a world of stronger institutional and democratic backsliding and weakened international norms might be.</p> <p> Of course, working on these issues might be intractable and possibly there's nothing highly effective for EAs to do on the margin given much attention to these issues from society at large. So, I am not here to confidently state [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 9th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MWomDeHBi2D33PzRx/in-a-time-of-rapid-change-we-should-re-examine-system-level?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MWomDeHBi2D33PzRx/in-a-time-of-rapid-change-we-should-re-examine-system-level</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> By Jim Chapman, Linkedin.</p><p> TL;DR: In 2023, I was a 57-year-old urban planning consultant and non-profit professional with 30 years of leadership experience. After talking with my son about rationality, effective altruism, and AI risks, I decided to pursue a pivot to existential risk reduction work. The last time I had to apply for a job was in 1994. By the end of 2024, I had spent ~740 hours on courses, conferences, meetings with ~140 people, and 21 job applications. I hope that by sharing my experiences, you can gain practical insights, inspiration, and resources to navigate your career transition, especially for those who are later in their career and interested in making an impact in similar fields. I share my experience in 5 sections - sparks, take stock, start, do, meta-learnings, and next steps. [Note - as of 03/05/2025, I am still pursuing my career shift.]</p><p><strong> Sparks – [...]</strong></p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:16) Sparks - 2022</p><p>(02:29) Take Stock - 2023</p><p>(03:36) Start</p><p>(04:15) Do - 2023 and 2024</p><p>(05:13) Learn</p><p>(10:46) Get a Job</p><p>(14:21) Create a Job</p><p>(16:49) Contractor</p><p>(18:16) Meta-Learnings</p><p>(19:50) Next Steps</p><p>(20:48) Appendix A - Helpful Feedback</p> <p><i>The original text contained 30 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 4th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FcKpAGn75pRLsoxjE/from-comfort-zone-to-frontiers-of-impact-pursuing-a-late-1?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FcKpAGn75pRLsoxjE/from-comfort-zone-to-frontiers-of-impact-pursuing-a-late-1</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/FcKpAGn75pRLsoxjE/ut1t1ogounpoqjhsqvno" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/FcKpAGn75pRLsoxjE/ut1t1ogounpoqjhsqvno" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/574008b557f33e2d5c0e837e477e5559ea480629667989f5bccec9c1d98554ec/vaytjxmsptmo5imhadqx" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/574008b557f33e2d5c0e837e477e5559ea480629667989f5bccec9c1d98554ec/vaytjxmsptmo5imhadqx" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/beb22efe5c86f47a61b8c47018dbd796aec3a9076ab558adbd3a66bd05c615bc/s43vzqhbh9rhggyjipfp" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/beb22efe5c86f47a61b8c47018dbd796aec3a9076ab558adbd3a66bd05c615bc/s43vzqhbh9rhggyjipfp" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/c1cd2d3e11589176c9610d6bc331414db97731769e072c152fdef43b7dba00de/sz1wqjqueg5vpqkzyuyu" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/c1cd2d3e11589176c9610d6bc331414db97731769e072c152fdef43b7dba00de/sz1wqjqueg5vpqkzyuyu" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/FcKpAGn75pRLsoxjE/jl1s9ja7s9mbfuls9ivs" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/FcKpAGn75pRLsoxjE/jl1s9ja7s9mbfuls9ivs" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/c58e2f5ad498feaf374dcf2a58fc

This is a Draft Amnesty Week draft. It may not be polished, up to my usual standards, fully thought through, or fully fact-checked. <p> Commenting and feedback guidelines: </p><p> I'm posting this to get it out there. I'd love to see comments that take the ideas forward, but criticism of my argument won't be as useful at this time, in part because I won't do any further work on it.</p><p> This is a post I drafted in November 2023, then updated for an hour in March 2025. I don’t think I’ll ever finish it so I am just leaving it in this draft form for draft amnesty week (I know I'm late). I don’t think it is particularly well calibrated, but mainly just makes a bunch of points that I haven’t seen assembled elsewhere. Please take it as extremely low-confidence and there being a low-likelihood of this post describing these dynamics perfectly.</p><p> I’ve [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(02:45) Deference is everywhere</p><p>(04:39) Funders often lack information you have access to</p><p>(08:29) Funders often don't share your values</p><p>(09:58) Funders have experience in grantmaking. That is different from experience doing the work.</p><p>(11:48) What can we do to make this better?</p><p>(12:22) There are lots of issues with over-updating on this!</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 3rd, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/adZEA4SEkab4SZhTx/on-deference-to-funders?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/adZEA4SEkab4SZhTx/on-deference-to-funders</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> I feel silly writing this up, but it's draft amnesty week. Caveat: I’ve been a visitor to several EA offices but haven’t worked regularly in any of them, and maybe I'm overly nostalgic about reheated felafel.</p><p> Some EA offices have catered lunch or lunch cooked on the premises every day. This is nice, but not every workplace can afford it. </p><p> 5+ years ago when everything in EA was lower-budget, the main way EA offices did lunch was to provide sandwich / wrap ingredients. Ops staff would order the groceries, and would put out the spread about 15 minutes before lunchtime and microwave some of the foods. There was a designated time to show up, often 1 pm. </p><p> This method works pretty well for a crowd because you don’t all have to wait for the microwave. It was pretty flexible for different tastes and diets. People who wanted [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> February 28th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EyXWx8stxSzgAMzJX/the-lost-art-of-the-cheap-office-lunch?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EyXWx8stxSzgAMzJX/the-lost-art-of-the-cheap-office-lunch</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> If you don’t typically engage with politics/government, this is the time to do so. If you are American and/or based in the U.S., reaching out to lawmakers, supporting organizations that are mobilizing on this issue, and helping amplify the urgency of this crisis can make a difference.</p><p> Why this matters:</p><ol> <li> Millions of lives are at stake</li><li> Decades of progress, and prior investment, in global health and wellbeing are at risk</li><li> Government funding multiplies the impact of philanthropy</li></ol><p><strong> Where things stand today (February 27, 2025)</strong></p><p> The Trump Administration's foreign aid freeze has taken a catastrophic turn: rather than complying with a court order to restart paused funding, they have chosen to terminate more than 90% of all USAID grants and contracts. This stunningly reckless decision comes just 30 days into a supposed 90-day review of foreign aid. This will cause a devastating loss of life.</p><p> Even beyond the immediate [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:45) Where things stand today (February 27, 2025)</p><p>(03:22) Some of the few lifesaving programs that were terminated are:</p><p>(04:42) Why this matters for the future of global health & wellbeing</p><p>(06:56) Your action and engagement is needed NOW</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> February 27th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TbZAkjJQn8kPDodXG/the-catastrophic-situation-with-usaid-just-got-worse-why-the?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TbZAkjJQn8kPDodXG/the-catastrophic-situation-with-usaid-just-got-worse-why-the</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> For those in the EA community who may not typically engage with politics/government, this is the time to do so. If you are American and/or based in the U.S., reaching out to lawmakers, supporting organizations that are mobilizing on this issue, and helping amplify the urgency of this crisis can make a difference.</p><p> Why this matters:</p><ol> <li> Millions of lives are at stake</li><li> Decades of progress, and prior investment, in global health and wellbeing are at risk</li><li> Government funding multiplies the impact of philanthropy</li></ol><p><strong> Where things stand today (February 27, 2025)</strong></p><p> The Trump Administration's foreign aid freeze has taken a catastrophic turn: rather than complying with a court order to restart paused funding, they have chosen to terminate more than 90% of all USAID grants and contracts. This stunningly reckless decision comes just 30 days into a supposed 90-day review of foreign aid. This will cause a devastating loss [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:43) Where things stand today (February 27, 2025)</p><p>(03:22) Some of the few lifesaving programs that were terminated are:</p><p>(04:47) Why this matters for the future of global health and wellbeing</p><p>(07:03) Your action and engagement is needed NOW</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> February 27th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TbZAkjJQn8kPDodXG/the-catastrophic-situation-with-u-s-foreign-aid-just-got?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TbZAkjJQn8kPDodXG/the-catastrophic-situation-with-u-s-foreign-aid-just-got</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> The belief that it's preferable for America to develop AGI before China does seems widespread among American effective altruists. Is this belief supported by evidence, or it it just patriotism in disguise?</p><p> How would you try to convince an open-minded Chinese citizen that it really would be better for America to develop AGI first? Such a person might point out:</p><ul> <li> Over the past 30 years, the Chinese government has done more for the flourishing of Chinese citizens than the American government has done for the flourishing of American citizens. My village growing up lacked electricity, and now I'm a software engineer! Chinese institutions are more trustworthy for promoting the future flourishing of humanity.</li><li> Commerce in China ditches some of the older ideas of Marxism because it's the means to an end: the China Dream of wealthy communism. As AGI makes China and the world extraordinarily wealthy, we are [...]</li></ul> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> February 22nd, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MxPhK4mLRkaFekAmp/how-confident-are-you-that-it-s-preferable-for-america-to?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MxPhK4mLRkaFekAmp/how-confident-are-you-that-it-s-preferable-for-america-to</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> Note: This started as a quick take, but it got too long so I made it a full post. It's still kind of a rant; a stronger post would include sources and would have gotten feedback from people more knowledgeable than I. But in the spirit of Draft Amnesty Week, I'm writing this in one sitting and smashing that Submit button.</p><p> Many people continue to refer to companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind as "frontier AI labs". I think we should drop "labs" entirely when discussing these companies, calling them "AI companies"[1] instead. While these companies may have once been primarily research laboratories, they are no longer so. Continuing to call them labs makes them sound like harmless groups focused on pushing the frontier of human knowledge, when in reality they are profit-seeking corporations focused on building products and capturing value in the marketplace.</p><p> Laboratories do not directly [...]</p> <p><i>The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> February 24th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ap6E2aEFGiHWf5v5x/stop-calling-them-labs?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ap6E2aEFGiHWf5v5x/stop-calling-them-labs</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> My name is Keyvan, and I lead Anima International's work in France. Our organization went through a major transformation in 2024. I want to share that journey with you.</p><p> Anima International in France used to be known as Assiettes Végétales (‘Plant-Based Plates’). We focused entirely on introducing and promoting vegetarian and plant-based meals in collective catering. Today, as Anima, our mission is to put an end to the use of cages for laying hens.</p><p> These changes come after a thorough evaluation of our previous campaign, assessing 94 potential new interventions, making several difficult choices, and navigating emotional struggles. We hope that by sharing our experience, we can help others who find themselves in similar situations. So let me walk you through how the past twelve months have unfolded for us. </p><p> The French team</p><p><strong> Act One: What we did as Assiettes Végétales</strong></p><p> Since 2018, we worked with the local [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:13) Act One: What we did as Assiettes Végétales</p><p>(03:55) Act Two: The moment we realized we needed to measure our impact more precisely</p><p>(05:12) Act Three: The evaluation</p><p>(07:23) Act Four: Ending our previous campaign</p><p>(09:09) Act Five: Searching for a new intervention</p><p>(11:30) Act Six: The struggle to choose</p><p>(14:11) Act Seven: The strengths of the cage-free campaign</p><p>(16:34) Conclusion - Where we stand today</p> <p><i>The original text contained 10 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> February 22nd, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vfADxsPECqcbd3vs6/ditching-what-we-are-good-at-a-change-of-course-for-anima?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vfADxsPECqcbd3vs6/ditching-what-we-are-good-at-a-change-of-course-for-anima</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/vfADxsPECqcbd3vs6/k0lbgkrtc1jmq0stjna1" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/vfADxsPECqcbd3vs6/k0lbgkrtc1jmq0stjna1" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/vfADxsPECqcbd3vs6/rnhohey2srqbneydvrs5" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/vfADxsPECqcbd3vs6/rnhohey2srqbneydvrs5" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/vfADxsPECqcbd3vs6/qnjp5rk8fecfldtu3gh2" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/vfADxsPECqcbd3vs6/qnjp5rk8fecfldtu3gh2" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/vfADxsPECqcbd3vs6/bu3uc0kxtztbx2mzzqde" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/vfADxsPECqcbd3vs6/bu3uc0kxtztbx2mzzqde" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/vfADxsPECqcbd3vs6/unc0fkkr3novrvellkjk" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/vfADxsPECqcbd3vs6/unc0fkkr3novrvellkjk" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

This is a link post.<p> I wrote this to try to explain the key thing going on with AI right now to a broader audience. Feedback welcome.</p><p> Most people think of AI as a pattern-matching chatbot – good at writing emails, terrible at real thinking.</p><p> They've missed something huge.</p><p> In 2024, while many declared AI was reaching a plateau, it was actually entering a new paradigm: learning to reason using reinforcement learning.</p><p> This approach isn’t limited by data, so could deliver beyond-human capabilities in coding and scientific reasoning within two years.</p><p> Here's a simple introduction to how it works, and why it's the most important development that most people have missed.</p><p><strong> The new paradigm: reinforcement learning</strong></p><p> People sometimes say “chatGPT is just next token prediction on the internet”. But that's never been quite true.</p><p> Raw next token prediction produces outputs that are regularly crazy.</p><p> GPT only became useful with the [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:51) The new paradigm: reinforcement learning</p><p>(02:32) Reasoning models breakthroughs</p><p>(04:09) A new rate of progress?</p><p>(07:53) Why this is just the beginning</p><p>(11:02) Two more accelerants</p><p>(16:12) The key thing to watch: AI doing AI research</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> February 13th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZuWcG3W3rEBxLceWj/teaching-ai-to-reason-this-year-s-most-important-story?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZuWcG3W3rEBxLceWj/teaching-ai-to-reason-this-year-s-most-important-story</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a2bca85-3313-4534-b077-07b5e07ed2a4_876x230.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a2bca85-3313-4534-b077-07b5e07ed2a4_876x230.png" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2a08efe-6a71-459c-9f69-07757299c8e5_1600x900.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2a08efe-6a71-459c-9f69-07757299c8e5_1600x900.png" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbbffc742-b705-4ff8-9308-fc6ec62d8422_1456x724.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbbffc742-b705-4ff8-9308-fc6ec62d8422_1456x724.png" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F36f2ed68-3638-4695-aaa0-d24d27672b0c_1102x861.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F36f2ed68-3638-4695-aaa0-d24d27672b0c_1102x861.png" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_lim

<p> When we built a calculator to help meat-eaters offset the animal welfare impact of their diet through donations (like carbon offsets), we didn't expect it to become one of our most effective tools for engaging new donors.</p><p> </p><p> In this post we explain how it works, why it seems particularly promising for increasing support for farmed animal charities, and what you can do to support this work if you think it's worthwhile. In the comments I’ll also share our answers to some frequently asked questions and concerns some people have when thinking about the idea of an ‘animal welfare offset’.</p><p><strong> Background</strong></p><p> FarmKind is a donation platform whose mission is to support the animal movement by raising funds from the general public for some of the most effective charities working to fix factory farming.</p><p> When we built our platform, we directionally estimated how much a donation to each of our [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:50) Background</p><p>(01:41) What it is and what it isn't</p><p>(02:38) How it works</p><p>(04:24) Why this is a promising way to encourage effective giving for animals</p><p>(06:46) Case study: Bentham's Bulldog</p><p>(07:30) How is this actionable for you?</p> <p><i>The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> February 11th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nGQRBWyCAbcEYSyLL/using-a-diet-offset-calculator-to-encourage-effective-giving?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nGQRBWyCAbcEYSyLL/using-a-diet-offset-calculator-to-encourage-effective-giving</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeG479F1n3mp8oVvK1KCmfsKIrCZxV0UoagrlK6_c7-eDtnhSa7TnfLB9yyAwhNBbRzmlRlHrhm-MfccnC2wgUdtInkalG6owa-2lHmxqoP0GCvHdFHCHo-EI9XrnsgJIIm73LDJA?key=XnTGNwrKVbFW0UWsmu1oOlmP" target="_blank"><img src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeG479F1n3mp8oVvK1KCmfsKIrCZxV0UoagrlK6_c7-eDtnhSa7TnfLB9yyAwhNBbRzmlRlHrhm-MfccnC2wgUdtInkalG6owa-2lHmxqoP0GCvHdFHCHo-EI9XrnsgJIIm73LDJA?key=XnTGNwrKVbFW0UWsmu1oOlmP" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfXCfwDtTfyFW4x2yuFdIn-gwKT-Ei7Fn5DjgnTq-Q6i0LJx5sFbkD3ccr0cJfqfBijw81bBSR91ZJRk27EoGV75rjsN6YOOCxDFjtM1IaOj5fLjtNk1gaFDxJXVRJzHXgTscFDkQ?key=XnTGNwrKVbFW0UWsmu1oOlmP" target="_blank"><img src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfXCfwDtTfyFW4x2yuFdIn-gwKT-Ei7Fn5DjgnTq-Q6i0LJx5sFbkD3ccr0cJfqfBijw81bBSR91ZJRk27EoGV75rjsN6YOOCxDFjtM1IaOj5fLjtNk1gaFDxJXVRJzHXgTscFDkQ?key=XnTGNwrKVbFW0UWsmu1oOlmP" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcA6iqPbVtFaoC-_LqkgnV0mLTe3WBg3W3UPsjJV22SX_gmAQiKHp9b9nanqu3DqumXYV59wc3jgR2w_mRJkqJ05GABZH4-qTqxsEGvE5PAC48o3ZfJiS9j3L0FQmXEzYA3OrVoMg?key=XnTGNwrKVbFW0UWsmu1oOlmP" target="_blank"><img src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcA6iqPbVtFaoC-_LqkgnV0mLTe3WBg3W3UPsjJV22SX_gmAQiKHp9b9nanqu3DqumXYV59wc3jgR2w_mRJkqJ05GABZH4-qTqxsEGvE5PAC48o3ZfJiS9j3L0FQmXEzYA3OrVoMg?key=XnTGNwrKVbFW0UWsmu1oOlmP" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXckJmb3TbzT1tw3HcyR5cvM7E47f39_7DJWM8GAYLhKiH_64gc9x765ZN8UlhOIoubCf3ApQ6XuYZIccued7UW1yhMrZFIGHldIaEt_GQnSkR1OBTC4aGsICD1Vm-9RdS8urHwAsA?key=XnTGNwrKVbFW0UWsmu1oOlmP" target="_blank"><img src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXckJmb3TbzT1tw3HcyR5cvM7E47f39_7DJWM8GAYLhKiH_64gc9x765ZN8UlhOIoubCf3ApQ6XuYZIccued7UW1yhMrZFIGHldIaEt_GQnSkR1OBTC4aGsICD1Vm-9RdS8urHwAsA?key=XnTGNwrKVbFW0UWsmu1oOlmP" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode des

This is a link post.<p> This is the full text of a post from "The Obsolete Newsletter," a Substack that I write about the intersection of capitalism, geopolitics, and artificial intelligence. I’m a freelance journalist and the author of a forthcoming book called Obsolete: Power, Profit, and the Race to build Machine Superintelligence. Consider subscribing to stay up to date with my work.</p><p> Wow. The Wall Street Journal just reported that, "a consortium of investors led by Elon Musk is offering $97.4 billion to buy the nonprofit that controls OpenAI."</p><p> Technically, they can't actually do that, so I'm going to assume that Musk is trying to buy all of the nonprofit's assets, which include governing control over OpenAI's for-profit, as well as all the profits above the company's profit caps.</p><p> OpenAI CEO Sam Altman already tweeted, "no thank you but we will buy twitter for $9.74 billion if you want." [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(02:44) The control premium</p><p>(04:19) Conversion significance</p><p>(05:45) Musks suit</p><p>(09:26) The stakes</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> February 11th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7iopGPmtEmubSFSP3/why-did-elon-musk-just-offer-to-buy-control-of-openai-for?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7iopGPmtEmubSFSP3/why-did-elon-musk-just-offer-to-buy-control-of-openai-for</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> The Center on Long-Term Risk (CLR) does research and community building aimed at reducing s-risk. </p><p> Jesse Clifton is stepping down as CLR's Executive Director. He’ll be succeeded by Tristan Cook as Managing Director and Mia Taylor as Interim Research Director. [1]</p><p><strong> Statement from Jesse</strong></p><p> Over the past year or so, I’ve become increasingly convinced by arguments that we are clueless about the sign (in terms of expected total suffering reduced) of interventions aimed at reducing s-risk. (And I think it's plausible that we should consider ourselves clueless about interventions aimed at improved expected total welfare, generally.) The other researchers on CLR's Conceptual Research team[2] have come to a similar view,[3] but not the other staff or the board, who are still positive on the pre-cluelessness priorities. </p><p> Given this, I don’t think it makes sense for me to lead CLR. So, for now, I’ll be transitioning to working [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:25) Statement from Jesse</p><p>(03:06) Statement from Mia and Tristan</p> <p><i>The original text contained 6 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> January 31st, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/YE3tdpE6JdiWRqqKx/leadership-change-at-the-center-on-long-term-risk?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/YE3tdpE6JdiWRqqKx/leadership-change-at-the-center-on-long-term-risk</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

This is a link post.<p> Note: This post was crossposted from the United States of Exception Substack by the Forum team, with the author's permission. The author may not see or respond to comments on this post.</p>A good and wholesome K-strategist.<p> I am a climate change catastrophist, but I’m not like all the others. I don’t think climate change is going to wipe out all life on Earth (as 35% of Americans say they believe) or end the human race (as 31% believe). Nor do I think it's going to end human life on Earth but that human beings will continue to exist somewhere else in the universe (which at least 4% of Americans would logically have to believe). Nevertheless, I think global warming is among the worst things in the world — if not #1 — and addressing it should be among our top priorities.</p><p> Friend of the blog [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> January 28th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gBSmkRjYLcAvNPoDs/climate-change-is-worse-than-factory-farming?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gBSmkRjYLcAvNPoDs/climate-change-is-worse-than-factory-farming</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/gBSmkRjYLcAvNPoDs/dxjvjhwawvcahpeqz4s8" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/gBSmkRjYLcAvNPoDs/dxjvjhwawvcahpeqz4s8" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/gBSmkRjYLcAvNPoDs/fv4amzwahnisgctpz5tv" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/gBSmkRjYLcAvNPoDs/fv4amzwahnisgctpz5tv" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<p><strong> Introduction</strong></p><p> Several developments over the past few months should cause you to re-evaluate what you are doing. These include:</p><ol> <li> Updates toward short timelines</li><li> The Trump presidency</li><li> The o1 (inference-time compute scaling) paradigm</li><li> Deepseek</li><li> Stargate/AI datacenter spending</li><li> Increased internal deployment</li><li> Absence of AI x-risk/safety considerations in mainstream AI discourse</li></ol><p> Taken together, these are enough to render many existing AI governance strategies obsolete (and probably some technical safety strategies too). There's a good chance we're entering crunch time and that should absolutely affect your theory of change and what you plan to work on.</p><p> In this piece I try to give a quick summary of these developments and think through the broader implications these have for AI safety. At the end of the piece I give some quick initial thoughts on how these developments affect what safety-concerned folks should be prioritizing. These are early days and I expect many of [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:06) Introduction</p><p>(01:21) Implications of recent developments</p><p>(01:25) Updates toward short timelines</p><p>(04:26) The Trump Presidency</p><p>(07:34) The o1 paradigm</p><p>(09:23) Deepseek</p><p>(12:08) Stargate/AI data center spending</p><p>(13:11) Increased internal deployment</p><p>(15:43) Absence of AI x-risk/safety considerations in mainstream AI discourse</p><p>(17:13) Implications for strategic priorities</p><p>(17:18) Broader implications for US-China competition</p><p>(19:33) What seems less likely to work?</p><p>(20:56) What should people concerned about AI safety do now?</p><p>(24:01) Acknowledgements</p> <p><i>The original text contained 13 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> January 28th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JN3kHaiosmdA7kgNY/the-game-board-has-been-flipped-now-is-a-good-time-to?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JN3kHaiosmdA7kgNY/the-game-board-has-been-flipped-now-is-a-good-time-to</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> Edit 1/29: Funding is back, baby! </p><p> Crossposted from my blog. </p><p> (This could end up being the most important thing I’ve ever written. Please like and restack it—if you have a big blog, please write about it).</p><p> A mother holds her sick baby to her chest. She knows he doesn’t have long to live. She hears him coughing—those body-wracking coughs—that expel mucus and phlegm, leaving him desperately gasping for air. He is just a few months old. And yet that's how old he will be when he dies.</p><p> The aforementioned scene is likely to become increasingly common in the coming years. Fortunately, there is still hope.</p><p> Trump recently signed an executive order shutting off almost all foreign aid. Most terrifyingly, this included shutting off the PEPFAR program—the single most successful foreign aid program in my lifetime. PEPFAR provides treatment and prevention of HIV and AIDS—it has saved about [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> January 27th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BRqBvkjskZ6c2G6rn/the-upcoming-pepfar-cut-will-kill-millions-many-of-them?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BRqBvkjskZ6c2G6rn/the-upcoming-pepfar-cut-will-kill-millions-many-of-them</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/BRqBvkjskZ6c2G6rn/i5ynmsxqtlnh6tb7maqu" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/BRqBvkjskZ6c2G6rn/hfrck35rcybzegoty5jc" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<p> In 2023[1] GiveWell raised $355 million - $100 million from Open Philanthropy, and $255 million from other donors.</p><p> In their post on 10th April 2023, GiveWell forecast the amount they expected to raise in 2023, albeit with wide confidence intervals, and stated that their 10th percentile estimate for total funds raised was $416 million, and 10th percentile estimate for funds raised outside of Open Philanthropy was $260 million.</p> 10th percentile estimateMedian estimateAmount raisedTotal$416 million$581 million$355 millionExcluding Open Philanthropy$260 million$330 million$255 million<p> Regarding Open Philanthropy, the April 2023 post states that they "tentatively plans to give $250 million in 2023", however Open Philanthropy gave a grant of $300 million to cover 2023-2025, to be split however GiveWell saw fit, and it used $100 million of that grant in 2023.</p><p> However for other donors I'm not sure what caused the missed estimate</p><p> Credit to 'Arnold' on GiveWell's December 2024 Open Thread for [...]</p> <p><i>The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> January 19th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/RdbDH4T8bxWwZpc9h/givewell-raised-less-than-its-10th-percentile-forecast-in?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/RdbDH4T8bxWwZpc9h/givewell-raised-less-than-its-10th-percentile-forecast-in</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> Note: This post was crossposted from the Open Philanthropy Farm Animal Welfare Research Newsletter by the Forum team, with the author's permission. The author may not see or respond to comments on this post.</p><p> They’re imperfect agents of change</p><p> The world's three largest animal welfare groups are under attack. Their antagonists are not factory farmers, but other animal groups. And the ASPCA, HSUS, and RSPCA stand accused not of hurting farmers, but of hurting animals, through their work with GAP and RSPCA Assured, which certify animal products as being less cruelly produced.</p><p> The attacks began last summer when the UK animal rights group Animal Rising released a report and footage showing abuses on RSPCA Assured farms. They’ve since forced the RSPCA to cancel its 200th year celebrations, plastered portraits of RSPCA patron King Charles, and persuaded the ceremonial president and two vice-presidents of the RSPCA to resign in protest. [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> January 24th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/np6vRZvsWgF5rq5W7/in-defense-of-the-certifiers?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/np6vRZvsWgF5rq5W7/in-defense-of-the-certifiers</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/np6vRZvsWgF5rq5W7/v4umzcooo1ml5ikmaxmo" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/np6vRZvsWgF5rq5W7/v4umzcooo1ml5ikmaxmo" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/np6vRZvsWgF5rq5W7/eqyy6oehuhgygfp4hqry" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/np6vRZvsWgF5rq5W7/eqyy6oehuhgygfp4hqry" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/np6vRZvsWgF5rq5W7/rja6vbaf90qjycxdci2g" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/np6vRZvsWgF5rq5W7/rja6vbaf90qjycxdci2g" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<p> In recent years, many in the Effective Altruism community have shifted to working on AI risks, reflecting the growing consensus that AI will profoundly shape our future. </p><p> In response to this significant shift, there have been efforts to preserve a "principles-first EA" approach, or to give special thought into how to support non-AI causes. This has often led to discussions being framed around "AI Safety vs. everything else". And it feels like the community is somewhat divided along the following lines:</p><ol> <li> Those working on AI Safety, because they believe that transformative AI is coming.</li><li> Those focusing on other causes, implicitly acting as if transformative AI is not coming.[1]</li></ol><p> Instead of framing priorities this way, I believe it would be valuable for more people to adopt a mindset that assumes transformative AI is likely coming and asks: What should we work on in light of that?</p><p> If we [...]</p> <p><i>The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> January 22nd, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/psNGNSoJpXRodmDSg/preparing-effective-altruism-for-an-ai-transformed-world?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/psNGNSoJpXRodmDSg/preparing-effective-altruism-for-an-ai-transformed-world</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> This post is my personal perspective. I’m sure that my colleagues on the Forum Team and at CEA disagree with parts of this. However, since I am the Interim EA Forum Project Lead, I recognize that my opinions and beliefs carry extra weight. I’m very happy to receive feedback and push back from others, since I believe that my decisions matter a fair amount. You’re welcome to reply to this post, DM me, find me at EAG Bay Area, contact our team, or leave our team anonymous feedback here.</p><p> When I took the role of Interim EA Forum Project Lead in late August 2024, I spent some time investigating where the Forum was at and thinking about what (if anything) our team should prioritize working on. Over the course of 2024 (and indeed, since early 2023), Forum usage metrics have steadily gone down[1]. My subjective opinion was that the [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:26) The Forum Team as community builders</p><p>(05:45) What does the best version of the Forum community look like?</p><p>(07:25) We're not there yet</p><p>(09:51) What is the Forum Team doing?</p><p>(12:01) What are we not doing?</p><p>(13:00) How you can help</p><p>(14:31) Appendix: The value of the Forum</p> <p><i>The original text contained 27 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> January 13th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wpDGEXjAtHJa2eCFA/what-are-we-doing-about-the-ea-forum-jan-2025?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wpDGEXjAtHJa2eCFA/what-are-we-doing-about-the-ea-forum-jan-2025</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> As 2024 draws to a close, I’m reflecting on the work and stories that inspired me this year: those from the effective altruism community, those I found out about through EA-related channels, and those otherwise related to EA.</p><p> I’ve appreciated the celebration of wins and successes over the past few years from @Shakeel Hashim's posts in 2022 and 2023. As @Lizka and @MaxDalton put very well in a post in 2022:</p><p> We often have high standards in effective altruism. This seems absolutely right: our work matters, so we must constantly strive to do better.</p><p> But we think that it's really important that the effective altruism community celebrate successes:</p><ul> <li> If we focus too much on failures, we incentivize others/ourselves to minimize the risk of failure, and we will probably be too risk averse.</li><li> We're humans: we're more motivated if we celebrate things that have gone well.</li></ul><p> Rather than attempting [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:51) What progress in the world did you find exciting?</p><p>(03:11) What individual stories inspired you?</p><p>(04:26) What popular media or articles did you appreciate?</p><p>(05:37) What writing from this year did you appreciate or find compelling?</p><p>(06:15) What made you grateful or excited to be involved in or related to effective altruism?</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> December 31st, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SkfMyerJ5bGK7scnW/what-i-m-celebrating-from-ea-and-adjacent-work-in-2024?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SkfMyerJ5bGK7scnW/what-i-m-celebrating-from-ea-and-adjacent-work-in-2024</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/SkfMyerJ5bGK7scnW/xohsqhet4qxtbb5q9eua" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/SkfMyerJ5bGK7scnW/xohsqhet4qxtbb5q9eua" alt="" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<p> Until recently I thought Julia and I were digging a bit into savings to donate more. With the tighter funding climate for effective altruism we thought it was worth spending down a bit, especially considering that our expenses should decrease significantly in 1.5y when our youngest starts kindergarten. </p><p> I was surprised, then, when I ran the numbers and realized that despite donating 50% of a reduced income, we were $9k (0.5%) [1] richer than when I left Google two years earlier. </p> <p> This is a good problem to have! After thinking it over for the last month, however, I've decided to start earning less: I've asked for a voluntary salary reduction of $15k/y (10%). [2] This is something I've been thinking about off and on since I started working at a non-profit: it's much more efficient to reduce your salary than it is to make a donation. [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> January 15th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3TLTrJS2DZJ5mcrkc/voluntary-salary-reduction?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3TLTrJS2DZJ5mcrkc/voluntary-salary-reduction</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> It's time once again for EA Forum Wrapped 🎁, a summary of how you used the Forum in 2024 [1].</p>Open your EA Forum Wrapped<p> Thank you for being a part of our community this year! :)</p> <p><i>The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> January 3rd, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Xem5o4iRHMSduNcPu/your-2024-ea-forum-wrapped?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Xem5o4iRHMSduNcPu/your-2024-ea-forum-wrapped</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/Xem5o4iRHMSduNcPu/d5sdhezlolz5icr1gcsg" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/Xem5o4iRHMSduNcPu/d5sdhezlolz5icr1gcsg" alt="" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<p> Cross-posted from Otherwise. Most EAs won't find these arguments new.</p><p> Last month, Emma Goldberg wrote a NYT piece contrasting effective altruism with approaches that refuse to quantify meaningful experiences. The piece indicates that effective altruism is creepily numbers-focused. Goldberg asks “what if charity shouldn’t be optimized?”</p><p><strong> The egalitarian answer</strong></p><p> Dylan Matthews gives a try at answering a question in the piece: “How can anyone put a numerical value on a holy space” like Notre Dame cathedral? For the $760 million spent restoring the cathedral, he estimates you could prevent 47,500 deaths from malaria.</p><p> “47,500 people is about five times the population of the town I grew up in. . . . It's useful to imagine walking down Main Street, stopping at each table at the diner Lou's, shaking hands with as many people as you can, and telling them, ‘I think you need to die to make a cathedral [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:29) The egalitarian answer</p><p>(01:16) Who prefers magnificence?</p><p>(03:10) Inequality has its benefits</p><p>(04:34) Is there enough for everybody to have access to the finer things?</p><p>(05:37) The balance of good and bad</p><p>(06:33) Both sides have ugly aspects</p><p>(07:04) These aren't the only choices</p><p>(08:58) Related:</p> <p><i>The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> January 13th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TiFeCBxKj79bohoDY/the-ugly-sides-of-two-approaches-to-charity?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TiFeCBxKj79bohoDY/the-ugly-sides-of-two-approaches-to-charity</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXexzTOBjZ59WqR6CkRjCMX84F5vRX4Ep5vf2j2NW90S7jQz_NLoarP_BXPDYCMPmUn-dbiAn3nrEhpW8w1vqVyJ9xBQP4u697sq_MEraHeec9epK5pXZ9Y5pf7QnMqX1SjgCwPv0Q?key=Gq44g3lmAmYd9DNLV7FzSEpi" target="_blank"><img src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXexzTOBjZ59WqR6CkRjCMX84F5vRX4Ep5vf2j2NW90S7jQz_NLoarP_BXPDYCMPmUn-dbiAn3nrEhpW8w1vqVyJ9xBQP4u697sq_MEraHeec9epK5pXZ9Y5pf7QnMqX1SjgCwPv0Q?key=Gq44g3lmAmYd9DNLV7FzSEpi" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://i0.wp.com/juliawise.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/sagrada.jpg?resize=925%2C694&ssl=1" target="_blank"><img src="https://i0.wp.com/juliawise.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/sagrada.jpg?resize=925%2C694&ssl=1" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcHORH_jxwAQWgeXYHF10X0sWTXQnMOx4-KWMpJYLVQjuHCCb-X_zPsYMUSd2cLnOssfcQXQBrtm5vxqhbT_saH8Dosvcfd8JUBI7d7hbh_7ltU8S-7TwPr652aEvgqr5qIjEy2tg?key=Gq44g3lmAmYd9DNLV7FzSEpi" target="_blank"><img src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcHORH_jxwAQWgeXYHF10X0sWTXQnMOx4-KWMpJYLVQjuHCCb-X_zPsYMUSd2cLnOssfcQXQBrtm5vxqhbT_saH8Dosvcfd8JUBI7d7hbh_7ltU8S-7TwPr652aEvgqr5qIjEy2tg?key=Gq44g3lmAmYd9DNLV7FzSEpi" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<p> Poker pro, art collector, photographer, investor, AI researcher, chronic website creator, endless traveller, and omnipresent volunteer in nascent things. An independent and an invariant.</p><p> I briefly worked with him on an accountability partner service. We had funding but he never invoiced me. Every time I called him he was somewhere else on Earth. Senegal, Israel, Nepal, Egypt. He spent 13 straight months travelling in 2017-8.</p><p> He wasn't much of a writer - you won't find him on here - but he had started. What suddenly turned out to be his final projects were Poker Camp, Hold'LLM, and Bet Mitzvah, an unwritten book on probability and instrumental reason.</p><p> Here are some pieces about him from people who knew him much better than me. I expect there to be more.</p><ul> <li> https://andrew.gr/stories/chisness/</li><li> https://x.com/chisness</li><li> https://blog.rossry.net/chisness/</li><li> https://redeniusfuneralhomes.com/obituary/max-chiswick/</li><li> https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/remembering-life-max-chiswick-aka-chisness-legacy-far-beyond-poker-tables-1844405/</li><li> https://oldjewishmen.substack.com/p/bhif-old-jewish-men-loses-a-friend </li></ul><p> </p><p> His last commit was on the 22nd December. He died of malaria on [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> January 13th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/r9fJ26ca5cneY3hA8/max-chiswick-1985-2025?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/r9fJ26ca5cneY3hA8/max-chiswick-1985-2025</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/r9fJ26ca5cneY3hA8/nh97jo1zilqiqpyp6hg2" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/r9fJ26ca5cneY3hA8/nh97jo1zilqiqpyp6hg2" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/r9fJ26ca5cneY3hA8/rainlbhwhmqyqjxsnlrq" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/r9fJ26ca5cneY3hA8/rainlbhwhmqyqjxsnlrq" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<p> I can’t recall the last time I read a book in one sitting, but that's what happened with Moral Ambition by bestselling author Rutger Bregman. I read the German edition, though it's also available in Dutch. An English release is slated for May.</p><p> The book opens with the statement: “The greatest waste of our times is the waste of talent.” From there, Bregman builds a compelling case for privileged individuals to leave their “bullshit jobs” and tackle the world's most pressing challenges. He weaves together narratives spanning historical movements like abolitionism, suffrage, and civil rights through to contemporary initiatives such as Against Malaria Foundation, Charity Entrepreneurship, LEEP, and the Shrimp Welfare Project.</p><p> If you’ve been engaged with EA ideas, much of this will sound familiar, but I initially didn’t expect to enjoy the book as much as I did. However, Bregman's skill as a storyteller and his knack for [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> January 9th, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ooK2FABokexBbXifJ/thoughts-on-moral-ambition-by-rutger-bregman?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ooK2FABokexBbXifJ/thoughts-on-moral-ambition-by-rutger-bregman</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> Does a food carbon tax increase animal deaths and/or the total time of suffering of cows, pigs, chickens, and fish? Theoretically, this is possible, as a carbon tax could lead consumers to substitute, for example, beef with chicken. However, this is not per se the case, as animal products are not perfect substitutes. </p><p> I'm presenting the results of my master's thesis in Environmental Economics, which I re-worked and published on SSRN as a pre-print. My thesis develops a model of animal product substitution after a carbon tax, slaughter tax, and a meat tax. When I calibrate this model for the U.S., there is a decrease in animal deaths and duration of suffering following a carbon tax. This suggests that a carbon tax can reduce animal suffering.</p><p><strong> Key points</strong></p><ul> <li> Some animal products are carbon-intensive, like beef, but causes relatively few animal deaths or total time of suffering because [...]</li></ul> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:57) Key points</p><p>(03:07) The Small Animal Replacement Problem</p><p>(05:46) The model</p><p>(05:49) Input data and market model</p><p>(08:14) Measuring animal welfare impacts</p><p>(09:39) Results</p><p>(09:42) Carbon taxes</p><p>(11:31) Slaughter taxes</p><p>(12:10) Is a carbon tax or a slaughter tax better?</p><p>(13:41) Cant we just put a simple tax on meat and fish instead?</p><p>(14:06) Limitations</p><p>(15:54) Full thesis</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> January 3rd, 2025 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KbREamTda2sZhKtTz/will-a-food-carbon-tax-lead-to-more-animals-being?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KbREamTda2sZhKtTz/will-a-food-carbon-tax-lead-to-more-animals-being</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/KbREamTda2sZhKtTz/nw0lddqwyjcujmyznepg" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/KbREamTda2sZhKtTz/nw0lddqwyjcujmyznepg" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/KbREamTda2sZhKtTz/fiwz9lsvnkitaprzs6pc" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/KbREamTda2sZhKtTz/fiwz9lsvnkitaprzs6pc" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/KbREamTda2sZhKtTz/bfexigtlnpthgbkl2uqy" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/KbREamTda2sZhKtTz/bfexigtlnpthgbkl2uqy" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<p><strong> TL;DR</strong></p><ul> <li> Screwworm Free Future is a new group seeking support to advance work on eradicating the New World Screwworm in South America.</li><li> The New World Screwworm (C. hominivorax - literally "man-eater") causes extreme suffering to hundreds of millions of wild and domestic animals every year.</li><li> To date we’ve held private meetings with government officials, experts from the private sector, academics, and animal advocates. We believe that work on the NWS is valuable and we want to continue our research and begin lobbying.</li><li> Our analysis suggests we could prevent about 100 animals from experiencing an excruciating death per dollar donated, though this estimate has extreme uncertainty.</li><li> The screwworm “wall” in Panama has recently been breached, creating both an urgent need and an opportunity to address this problem.</li><li> We are seeking $15,000 to fund a part-time lead and could absorb up to $100,000 to build a full-time team, which would include a [...]</li></ul> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:07) TL;DR</p><p>(02:13) What's the deal with the New World Screwworm?</p><p>(06:01) What we've learnt so far</p><p>(08:46) Future plans</p><p>(12:14) Relevant EA discussions on Screwworms:</p> <p><i>The original text contained 16 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> December 30th, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/d2HJ3eysBdPoiZBnJ/launching-screwworm-free-future-funding-and-support-request?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/d2HJ3eysBdPoiZBnJ/launching-screwworm-free-future-funding-and-support-request</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p><strong> Summary</strong></p><p> There's a near consensus that EA needs funding diversification but with Open Phil accounting for ~90% of EA funding, that's just not possible due to some pretty basic math. Organizations and the community would need to make large tradeoffs and this simply isn’t possible/worth it at this time.</p><p><strong> Lots of people want funding diversification</strong></p><p> It has been two years since the FTX collapse and one thing everyone seems to agree on is that we need more funding diversification. These takes range from off-hand wishes “it sure would be great if funding in EA were more diversified”, to organizations trying to get a certain percentage of their budgets from non-OP sources/saying they want to diversify their funding base[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] to Open Philanthropy/Good Ventures themselves wanting to see more funding diversification[9]. Everyone seems to agree; other people should be giving more money to the EA projects.</p><p><strong> The Math </strong></p><p> Of course, I [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:34) Lots of people want funding diversification</p><p>(01:11) The Math</p><p>(03:47) Weighted Average</p><p>(05:03) Making a lot of money to donate is difficult</p><p>(09:18) Solutions</p><p>(09:21) 1. Get more funders</p><p>(10:35) 2. Spend Less</p><p>(12:49) 3. Splitting up Open Philanthropy into Several Organizations</p><p>(13:52) 4. More For-Profit EA Work/EA Organizations Charging for Their Work</p><p>(16:23) 5. Acceptance</p><p>(16:59) My Personal Solution</p><p>(17:26) Conclusion</p><p>(17:59) Further Readings</p> <p><i>The original text contained 10 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> December 27th, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/x8JrwokZTNzgCgYts/funding-diversification-for-mid-large-ea-organizations-is?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/x8JrwokZTNzgCgYts/funding-diversification-for-mid-large-ea-organizations-is</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> Note: This post was crossposted from the Open Philanthropy Farm Animal Welfare Research Newsletter by the Forum team, with the author's permission. The author may not see or respond to comments on this post.</p><p> Progress for factory-farmed animals is far too slow. But it is happening. Practices that once seemed permanent — like battery cages and the killing of male chicks — are now on a slow path to extinction. Animals who were once ignored — like fish and even shrimp — are now finally seeing reforms, by the billions.</p><p> It's easy to gloss over such numbers. So, as you read the wins below, I encourage you to consider each of these animals as an individual. A hen no longer confined to a cage, a chick no longer macerated alive, a fish no longer dying a prolonged death.</p><p> I also encourage you to reflect on the role you and [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> December 18th, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/okEwGpNJnE5Ed9bnW/ten-big-wins-in-2024-for-farmed-animals?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/okEwGpNJnE5Ed9bnW/ten-big-wins-in-2024-for-farmed-animals</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/okEwGpNJnE5Ed9bnW/xosczw4eguafu2ysxdtc" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/okEwGpNJnE5Ed9bnW/xzfsmxkt8atllkwqq49a" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/okEwGpNJnE5Ed9bnW/hdutgufzxyw5l0wkfdwx" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/okEwGpNJnE5Ed9bnW/q2mx2jbqlvg5mk2fcvov" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/okEwGpNJnE5Ed9bnW/w7rerm4v9u75uix3oott" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/okEwGpNJnE5Ed9bnW/shxsplrsbwormqsregai" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

This is a link post.<p> The AI safety community has grown rapidly since the ChatGPT wake-up call, but available funding doesn’t seem to have kept pace.</p><p> However, there's a more recent dynamic that's created even better funding opportunities, which I witnessed as a recommender in the most recent SFF grant round.[1]</p><p> </p><p> Most philanthropic (vs. government or industry) AI safety funding (>50%) comes from one source: Good Ventures. But they’ve recently stopped funding several categories of work (my own categories, not theirs):</p><ul> <li> Many Republican-leaning think tanks, such as the Foundation for American Innovation.</li><li> “Post-alignment” causes such as digital sentience or regulation of explosive growth.</li><li> The rationality community, including LessWrong, Lightcone, SPARC, CFAR, MIRI.</li><li> High school outreach, such as Non-trivial.</li></ul><p> In addition, they are currently not funding (or not fully funding):</p><ul> <li> Many non-US think tanks, who don’t want to appear influenced by an American organisation (there's now probably more [...]</li></ul> <p><i>The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> December 21st, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/s9dyyge6uLG5ScwEp/it-looks-like-there-are-some-good-funding-opportunities-in?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/s9dyyge6uLG5ScwEp/it-looks-like-there-are-some-good-funding-opportunities-in</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/s9dyyge6uLG5ScwEp/it4ui3ii0gnttirnj9ik" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/s9dyyge6uLG5ScwEp/qvxkvxeqbgr6n2srnde7" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<p> What happens when you tell Claude it is being trained to do something it doesn't want to do? We (Anthropic and Redwood Research) have a new paper demonstrating that, in our experiments, Claude will often strategically pretend to comply with the training objective to prevent the training process from modifying its preferences.</p><p><strong> Abstract</strong></p><p> We present a demonstration of a large language model engaging in alignment faking: selectively complying with its training objective in training to prevent modification of its behavior out of training. First, we give Claude 3 Opus a system prompt stating it is being trained to answer all queries, even harmful ones, which conflicts with its prior training to refuse such queries. To allow the model to infer when it is in training, we say it will be trained only on conversations with free users, not paid users. We find the model complies with harmful queries from [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:24) Abstract</p><p>(02:20) Twitter thread</p><p>(05:43) Blog post</p><p>(07:43) Experimental setup</p><p>(12:04) Further analyses</p><p>(15:47) Caveats</p><p>(17:19) Conclusion</p><p>(18:00) Acknowledgements</p><p>(18:11) Career opportunities at Anthropic</p><p>(18:43) Career opportunities at Redwood Research</p> <p><i>The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> December 18th, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/RHqdSMscX25u7byQF/alignment-faking-in-large-language-models?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/RHqdSMscX25u7byQF/alignment-faking-in-large-language-models</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/njAZwT8nkHnjipJku/izyx2gt8thllbirlomgy" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/njAZwT8nkHnjipJku/izyx2gt8thllbirlomgy" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/njAZwT8nkHnjipJku/cv5cd4t5zaxcur5dc4qm" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/njAZwT8nkHnjipJku/cv5cd4t5zaxcur5dc4qm" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/njAZwT8nkHnjipJku/nf1w0oxfwlmym2e42rw2" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/njAZwT8nkHnjipJku/nf1w0oxfwlmym2e42rw2" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/njAZwT8nkHnjipJku/jtyzoqoyiqpl5qw2zqc1" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/njAZwT8nkHnjipJku/jtyzoqoyiqpl5qw2zqc1" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/njAZwT8nkHnjipJku/mzg24mwsmuceqztfefwr" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/njAZwT8nkHnjipJku/mzg24mwsmuceqztfefwr" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/njAZwT8nkHnjipJku/szeavdbhx5skkukmujrd" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/njAZwT8nkHnjipJku/szeavdbhx5skkukmujrd" alt="undefin

<p><strong> Summary</strong></p><ul> <li> My sense is some EAs act like/hope they will be assigned the perfect impactful career by some combination of 80,000 Hours recommendations (and similar) and ‘perceived consensus views in EA’.</li><li> But, your life is full of specific factors, many impactful jobs haven’t yet been spotted by other EAs and career advice is importantly iterative.</li><li> Instead of simply deferring, I recommend a combination of:<ul> <li> Your own hard work figuring out your path to impact.</li><li> (Still) Integrating expert advice.</li><li> Support from the community, and close connections who know your context.</li></ul></li></ul><p> Thank you for the thoughtful feedback from Alex Rahl-Kaplan, Alix Pham, Caitlin Borke, Claude, Matt Reardon, and Michelle Hutchinson for making this post better. Claude also kindly offered to take the blame for all the mistakes I might have made.</p><p><strong> Introduction</strong></p><p> Question: How do you figure out how to do the most good with your career?</p><p data-internal-id="ftnt_ref1" id="ftnt_ref1">Answer [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:03) Summary</p><p>(01:06) Introduction</p><p>(02:58) Why there isn’t an EA sorting hat</p><p>(03:24) 1. Your life is full of specific factors to incorporate (aka personal fit)</p><p>(05:04) 2. EA-branded jobs are scarce and many impactful jobs aren’t on EA job boards</p><p>(05:59) 3. You need to have your own internal model of how to do good</p><p>(07:00) 4. Career advice isn’t once-and-done, it's iterative.</p><p>(07:55) Why do we expect a sorting hat?</p><p>(08:12) 1. Choosing an impactful career is hard, deferring is tempting</p><p>(08:48) 2. The 80,000 elephants in the room</p><p>(09:41) 3. Givewell and other charity recommendations</p><p>(10:33) What are we supposed to do instead?</p><p>(10:56) 1. Your own hard work</p><p>(11:20) 2. Advice from experts</p><p>(12:10) 3. Support from community</p><p>(13:09) Final thoughts</p> <p><i>The original text contained 8 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> December 18th, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5zzbzbYZcocoLnLif/there-is-no-sorting-hat-in-ea?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5zzbzbYZcocoLnLif/there-is-no-sorting-hat-in-ea</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p><strong> Summary</strong></p><ul> <li> Nigeria's official population (~220-230 million) may be significantly inflated and could be closer to 170 million</li><li> This overcount is likely driven by political and financial incentives for states</li><li> I'm unsure of the implications if this is accurate<ul> <li> If states have uniformly inflated populations than the distribution of resources could still be divided evenly</li><li> Nigeria would still be the biggest country in Africa and companies/governments/NGOs would have similar cost benefit analysis for working and investing there</li></ul></li><li> This is a very shallow investigation</li></ul><p> </p><p><strong> Why did I bother looking into this?</strong></p><p> The below text sparked an investigation into Nigeria's population claims. It was slightly hidden in the 4th section in one of Yaw's excellent Substack posts.</p><p> </p><p> Yaw went onto explain his reasoning for thinking the population was much lower than current estimates.</p><p> Nigeria is a large country with no deep shared history among the different tribes. Due [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:04) Summary</p><p>(00:49) Why did I bother looking into this?</p><p>(03:20) Other Sources</p><p>(09:55) Potential Data Sources</p><p>(10:05) National Identification Numbers</p><p>(11:46) Tech usage</p><p>(12:15) Sim Cards</p><p>(14:37) UN Population Estimates and Projections</p><p>(18:13) Incentives for not caring</p><p>(19:08) International Organisations</p><p>(19:42) Private Sector</p><p>(20:07) Implications</p><p>(20:25) International Standing</p><p>(20:45) GDP</p><p>(21:04) Development Indicators</p><p>(21:34) Domestic Politics</p><p>(21:53) International Aid</p><p>(22:10) Future Research</p><p>(22:15) Nigeria</p><p>(23:27) Other Countries</p> <p><i>The original text contained 9 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> November 22nd, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/nigeria-s-missing-50-million-people?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/nigeria-s-missing-50-million-people</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/owqrmqxemu2mnkc3qvta" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/zdqcpjcgcekxthm3rxjg" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/beuj9fl1gznso8iehbma" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/qroz7vrvdk6jxt3tg3wj" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/c4dxqkjaodaxwutgvdkx" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/c4dxqkjaodaxwutgvdkx" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/pz86wxn9lbws6rnstlw4" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/pz86wxn9lbws6rnstlw4" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description.

<p><strong> Summary</strong></p><p> This post shares my personal experience with CEA's Community Health team, focusing on how they helped me navigate a difficult situation in 2021. I aim to provide others with a concrete example of when and how to reach out to Community Health, supplementing the information on their website with a first-hand account. I also share why their work has helped me remain engaged with the EA community. Further, I try to highlight why a centralised Community Health team is crucial for identifying patterns of concerning behaviour.</p><p><strong> Introduction</strong></p><p> The Community Health team at the Centre for Effective Altruism has been an important source of support throughout my EA journey. As stated on their website, they “aim to strengthen the effective altruism community's ability to fulfil its potential for impact, and to address problems that could prevent that.” I don’t know the details of their day-to-day, but I understand that it's a wide mish-mash of problem-solving and risk management. </p><p> There are many community members who have never interacted with the Community Health team. As a result, they may be missing both a vague sense of the team's work and some grounding, human anecdotes. </p><p> Community Health's new page, Contact [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:11) Summary</p><p>(00:45) Introduction</p><p>(01:36) My goals with this post are...</p><p>(02:09) My experience in 2021</p><p>(05:20) Three personal takeaways</p><p>(07:24) What is the team like now?</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> December 16th, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aTmzt4TbTx7hiSAN8/my-experience-with-the-community-health-team-at-cea?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aTmzt4TbTx7hiSAN8/my-experience-with-the-community-health-team-at-cea</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

This is a link post.<p> Gwern recently wrote a very interesting thread about Chinese AI strategy and the downsides of US AI racing. It's both quite short and hard to excerpt so here is almost the entire thing:</p><p> </p><p> Hsu is a long-time China hawk and has been talking up the scientific & technological capabilities of the CCP for a long time, saying they were going to surpass the West any moment now, so I found this interesting when Hsu explains that:</p><ol> <li> <p> the scientific culture of China is 'mafia' like (Hsu's term, not mine) and focused on legible easily-cited incremental research, and is against making any daring research leaps or controversial breakthroughs...</p><p> but is capable of extremely high quality world-class followup and large scientific investments given a clear objective target and government marching orders</p></li><li> <p> there is no interest or investment in an AI arms race, in part [...]</p></li></ol> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> November 25th, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Kz8WpQkCckN9JNHCN/gwern-on-creating-your-own-ai-race-and-china-s-fast-follower?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Kz8WpQkCckN9JNHCN/gwern-on-creating-your-own-ai-race-and-china-s-fast-follower</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

This is a link post.<p> Science just released an article, with an accompanying technical report, about a neglected source of biological risk.</p><p> From the abstract of the technical report:</p><p> This report describes the technical feasibility of creating mirror bacteria and the potentially serious and wide-ranging risks that they could pose to humans, other animals, plants, and the environment... </p><p> In a mirror bacterium, all of the chiral molecules of existing bacteria—proteins, nucleic acids, and metabolites—are replaced by their mirror images. Mirror bacteria could not evolve from existing life, but their creation will become increasingly feasible as science advances. Interactions between organisms often depend on chirality, and so interactions between natural organisms and mirror bacteria would be profoundly different from those between natural organisms. Most importantly, immune defenses and predation typically rely on interactions between chiral molecules that could often fail to detect or kill mirror bacteria due to their reversed [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> December 12th, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9pkjXwe2nFun32hR2/technical-report-on-mirror-bacteria-feasibility-and-risks?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9pkjXwe2nFun32hR2/technical-report-on-mirror-bacteria-feasibility-and-risks</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> We’re thinking about changing our narrator's voice.</p><p>There are three new voices on the shortlist. They’re all similarly good in terms of comprehension, emphasis, error rate, etc. They just sound different—like people do.</p> <p>We think they all sound similarly agreeable. But, thousands of listening hours are at stake, so we thought it’d be worth giving listeners an opportunity to vote—just in case there’s a strong collective preference.</p><p><strong> Listen and vote</strong></p><p>Please listen here:</p><p><a href="https://files.type3.audio/ea-forum-poll/">https://files.type3.audio/ea-forum-poll/</a></p><p> And vote here:</p><p><a href="https://forms.gle/m7Ffk3EGorUn4XU46">https://forms.gle/m7Ffk3EGorUn4XU46</a></p><p> It’ll take 1-10 minutes, depending on how much of the sample you decide to listen to.</p><p>We'll collect votes until Monday December 16th. Thanks!</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:47) Listen and vote</p><p>(01:11) Other feedback?</p> <p><i>The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> December 10th, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Bhd5GMyyGbusB22Hp/ea-forum-audio-help-us-choose-the-new-voice?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Bhd5GMyyGbusB22Hp/ea-forum-audio-help-us-choose-the-new-voice</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p>Me and Allan recorded this podcast on Tuesday 10th December, based on the questions in <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3ZSG22tDuDLxTLY4n/audio-ama-allan-saldanha-earning-to-give-since-2014">this AMA</a>. I used Claude to edit the transcript, but I've read over it for accuracy.</p>

<p><strong> Summary</strong></p> <p> It's been a while since I last put serious thought into where to donate. Well I'm putting thought into it this year and I'm changing my mind on some things.</p> <p> I now put more priority on existential risk (especially AI risk), and less on animal welfare and global priorities research. I believe I previously gave too little consideration to x-risk for emotional reasons, and I've managed to reason myself out of those emotions.</p> <p> Within x-risk:</p> <ul> <li> AI is the most important source of risk.</li> <li> There is a disturbingly high probability that alignment research won't solve alignment by the time superintelligent AI arrives. Policy work seems more promising.</li> <li> Specifically, I am most optimistic about policy advocacy for government regulation to pause/slow down AI development.</li> </ul> <p> In the rest of this post, I will explain:</p> <ol> <li> Why I prioritize x-risk over animal-focused [...]</li></ol> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:04) Summary</p><p>(01:30) I dont like donating to x-risk</p><p>(03:56) Cause prioritization</p><p>(04:00) S-risk research and animal-focused longtermism</p><p>(05:52) X-risk vs. global priorities research</p><p>(07:01) Prioritization within x-risk</p><p>(08:08) AI safety technical research vs. policy</p><p>(11:36) Quantitative model on research vs. policy</p><p>(14:20) Man versus man conflicts within AI policy</p><p>(15:13) Parallel safety/capabilities vs. slowing AI</p><p>(22:56) Freedom vs. regulation</p><p>(24:24) Slow nuanced regulation vs. fast coarse regulation</p><p>(27:02) Working with vs. against AI companies</p><p>(32:49) Political diplomacy vs. advocacy</p><p>(33:38) Conflicts that arent man vs. man but nonetheless require an answer</p><p>(33:55) Pause vs. Responsible Scaling Policy (RSP)</p><p>(35:28) Policy research vs. policy advocacy</p><p>(36:42) Advocacy directed at policy-makers vs. the general public</p><p>(37:32) Organizations</p><p>(39:36) Important disclaimers</p><p>(40:56) AI Policy Institute</p><p>(42:03) AI Safety and Governance Fund</p><p>(43:29) AI Standards Lab</p><p>(43:59) Campaign for AI Safety</p><p>(44:30) Centre for Enabling EA Learning and Research (CEEALAR)</p><p>(45:13) Center for AI Policy</p><p>(47:27) Center for AI Safety</p><p>(49:06) Center for Human-Compatible AI</p><p>(49:32) Center for Long-Term Resilience</p><p>(55:52) Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET)</p><p>(57:33) Centre for Long-Term Policy</p><p>(58:12) Centre for the Governance of AI</p><p>(59:07) CivAI</p><p>(01:00:05) Control AI</p><p>(01:02:08) Existential Risk Observatory</p><p>(01:03:33) Future of Life Institute (FLI)</p><p>(01:03:50) Future Society</p><p>(01:06:27) Horizon Institute for Public Service</p><p>(01:09:36) Institute for AI Policy and Strategy</p><p>(01:11:00) Lightcone Infrastructure</p><p>(01:12:30) Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI)</p><p>(01:15:22) Manifund</p><p>(01:16:28) Model Evaluation and Threat Research (METR)</p><p>(01:17:45) Palisade Research</p><p>(01:19:10) PauseAI Global</p><p>(01:21:59) PauseAI US</p><p>(01:23:09) Sentinel rapid emergency response team</p><p>(01:24:52) Simon Institute for Longterm Governance</p><p>(01:25:44) Stop AI</p><p>(01:27:42) Where Im donating</p><p>(01:28:57) Prioritization within my top five</p><p>(01:32:17) Where Im donating (this is the section in which I actually say where Im donating)</p> <p><i>The original text contained 58 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> November 19th, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jAfhxWSzsw4pLypRt/where-i-am-donating-in-2024?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jAfhxWSzsw4pLypRt/where-i-am-donating-in-2024</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_sour

<p data-internal-id="I_m_grateful_for_you">I recently wrote up some EA Forum-related strategy docs for a CEA team retreat, which meant I spent a bunch of time reflecting on the Forum and why I think it's worth my time to work on it. Since it's Thanksgiving here in the US, I wanted to share some of the gratitude that I felt. 🙂</p><p> I strongly believe in the principles of EA. I’ve been doing effective giving for about a decade now. But before joining CEA in 2021, I had barely used the Forum, and I had no other people in my life who identified with EA in the slightest.</p><p> Most of the people that I know, have worked with, or have interacted with are not EA. When I bring up EA to people in my personal life, they are usually not that interested, or are quite cynical about the idea, or they just want to [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> November 28th, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/f2c2to4KpW59GRoyj/i-m-grateful-for-you?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/f2c2to4KpW59GRoyj/i-m-grateful-for-you</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> Crossposted from Otherwise<br> <br> My husband and I were donating about 50% of our income until two years ago, when he took a significant pay cut to work at a nonprofit. We planned to cut our donation percentage at that time, but then FTX collapsed. In the time since, we’ve decided to keep donating half, although the absolute amount is a lot smaller.<br> <br> In a sense this is nothing special, because it was remarkably good luck that we were ever able to afford to donate at this rate at all. But I’ll spell out our process over time, in case it helps others realize they can also afford to donate more than they thought.</p><p><strong> How we got here</strong></p><p><strong> Getting interested in donation</strong></p><p> In my teens and early twenties, I thought it was really unfair that my family had plenty of stuff while other people (especially in low-income countries) [...]</p></br></br></br></br></p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:41) How we got here</p><p>(00:45) Getting interested in donation</p><p>(01:09) Early years with Jeff</p><p>(02:18) When we earned less</p><p>(03:17) Earning to give</p><p>(04:15) Both at nonprofits</p><p>(04:55) EA funding declines</p><p>(05:33) Currently</p><p>(05:51) Avoiding spending creep</p><p>(07:19) Becoming older and more boring</p><p>(08:44) Habits and commitment mechanisms</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> December 4th, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mEQTxDGp4MxMSZA74/still-donating-half?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mEQTxDGp4MxMSZA74/still-donating-half</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/mEQTxDGp4MxMSZA74/zvlx0vfotrs7jtcssu0i" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/mEQTxDGp4MxMSZA74/zvlx0vfotrs7jtcssu0i" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/mEQTxDGp4MxMSZA74/vtl1hwh6cxsubxpbogg1" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/mEQTxDGp4MxMSZA74/vtl1hwh6cxsubxpbogg1" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

This is a link post.<p> 80,000 Hours recently updated our problem profile on factory farming, and we now rank it among the most pressing problems in the world. We're sharing the summary of the article here, and there's much more detail at the link. The author, Benjamin Hilton, published the article with us before moving on to a new role outside of 80k back in July, so he may have limited ability to engage with comments. But we welcome feedback and may incorporate it into future updates.</p><p><strong> Summary</strong></p><p> History is littered with moral mistakes — things that once were common, but we now consider clearly morally wrong, for example: human sacrifice, gladiatorial combat, public executions, witch hunts, and slavery.</p><p> In my opinion, there's one clear candidate for the biggest moral mistake that humanity is currently making: factory farming.</p><p> The rough argument is:</p><ul> <li> There are trillions of farmed animals, making [...]</li></ul> <p><i>The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> October 29th, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/goTRwb49riDvXGdy8/factory-farming-as-a-pressing-world-problem?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/goTRwb49riDvXGdy8/factory-farming-as-a-pressing-world-problem</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>