“Nigeria’s Missing 50 Million People” by DavidNash

<p><strong> Summary</strong></p><ul> <li> Nigeria's official population (~220-230 million) may be significantly inflated and could be closer to 170 million</li><li> This overcount is likely driven by political and financial incentives for states</li><li> I'm unsure of the implications if this is accurate<ul> <li> If states have uniformly inflated populations than the distribution of resources could still be divided evenly</li><li> Nigeria would still be the biggest country in Africa and companies/governments/NGOs would have similar cost benefit analysis for working and investing there</li></ul></li><li> This is a very shallow investigation</li></ul><p> </p><p><strong> Why did I bother looking into this?</strong></p><p> The below text sparked an investigation into Nigeria's population claims. It was slightly hidden in the 4th section in one of Yaw's excellent Substack posts.</p><p> </p><p> Yaw went onto explain his reasoning for thinking the population was much lower than current estimates.</p><p> Nigeria is a large country with no deep shared history among the different tribes. Due [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:04) Summary</p><p>(00:49) Why did I bother looking into this?</p><p>(03:20) Other Sources</p><p>(09:55) Potential Data Sources</p><p>(10:05) National Identification Numbers</p><p>(11:46) Tech usage</p><p>(12:15) Sim Cards</p><p>(14:37) UN Population Estimates and Projections</p><p>(18:13) Incentives for not caring</p><p>(19:08) International Organisations</p><p>(19:42) Private Sector</p><p>(20:07) Implications</p><p>(20:25) International Standing</p><p>(20:45) GDP</p><p>(21:04) Development Indicators</p><p>(21:34) Domestic Politics</p><p>(21:53) International Aid</p><p>(22:10) Future Research</p><p>(22:15) Nigeria</p><p>(23:27) Other Countries</p> <p><i>The original text contained 9 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.</i> </p><p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> November 22nd, 2024 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/nigeria-s-missing-50-million-people?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/nigeria-s-missing-50-million-people</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/owqrmqxemu2mnkc3qvta" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/zdqcpjcgcekxthm3rxjg" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/beuj9fl1gznso8iehbma" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/qroz7vrvdk6jxt3tg3wj" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/c4dxqkjaodaxwutgvdkx" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/c4dxqkjaodaxwutgvdkx" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/pz86wxn9lbws6rnstlw4" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/824rsHCXuqTmBb8se/pz86wxn9lbws6rnstlw4" alt="undefined" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>