ChinaTalk

Chinese Doomscroll, which faithfully records happenings from the wild west that is Weibo (China’s Twitter/X equivalent), won the ChinaTalk award for best China-focussed Substack on 2023. Today we have on the brain behind the newsletter: Molly, who’s been doomscrolling for us since early 2023. We discuss: Why Weibo keeps Molly up at night; Chinese elementary school kids’ academic prowess; How social issues gain attention on the trending list; Terrible bots; And what makes microblogging uniquely compelling. Outtro music is 演员 by Joker Xue 薛之谦: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKuL5xaKZHM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How can AI change diplomacy? To discuss the State Department’s options for AI integration, we interviewed the State Department's Deputy Chief Data and AI Officer, Garrett Berntsen. He served as an officer during two tours in Afghanistan and recently rotated off the NSC. He's optimistic diplomacy can be more effective with comprehensive, timely, and accurate data-driven analysis, and that AI will be part of achieving that mission. We get into: How AI can streamline bureaucratic busy work The value of data-driven negotiation prep in diplomatic contexts The benefits of transparency in a democratic society What level of risk is appropriate for the civil service How close he is to getting ChatGPT into State The balance between transparency and secrecy in the age of big data How the Snowden leaks changed the State Department’s relationship with technology What the State Department can and can't import from the private sector Thanks to the Hudson Institute and Andrew Marshall Foundation for supporting this podcast. Outtro music: 國蛋 GorDoN - White Noise ft. 蛋堡 Soft Lipa https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31ZM440owzw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Why can India design chips with the best of them but has completely failed to develop fabs, much less a broader electronics industry? To discuss, I have on Pranay Kotasthane, former chip designer at TI and Qualcomm who now works at the Takshashila Institution and is the author of the new book When the Chips are Down. Chris Miller of Chip War cohosts. We get into: How the political economy of technology in India led to world class software and services but underwhelming manufacturing Why India was slower to the uptake than China that socialism really sucks at getting your country rich What it takes to design a chip. Outtro music: Ye Jo Des Hai Tera https://youtu.be/4tiVPuLbbHg?feature=shared Image: spectacular Mughal painting of an elephant currently on at the Met. that I prompted with semiconductor alot https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/825607?pkgids=906 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What does it take to train a frontier model? What's the know-how, the secret sauce that makes firms lets OpenAI and Deepmind push the limits of what's possible? How much are Chinese firms benefitting from western open source, and in the long term is it possible for western labs to maintain an edge? The hosts of the excellent Latent Space podcast, Alessio Fanelli of Decibel VC and Shawn Wang of Smol AI, come on to discuss. We get into: How the secret sauce used to push the frontier of AI diffuses out of the top labs and into substacks How labs are managing the culture change from quasi-academic outfits to places that have to ship How open source raises the global AI standard, but why there's likely to always be a gap between closed and open source China as a "GPU Poor" nation Three key algorithmic innovations that could reshape the balance of power between the GPU rich and GPU poor Outtro music: CHEKI https://open.spotify.com/track/1zKL2bOEkMDGuIjLhG34YA?si=9a713a88aa3d4f71 Cover photo: "Inkstand with A Madman Distilling His Brains" 1600s Urbino. Kind of like training a model! https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/188899 The met description: In this whimsical maiolica sculpture, a well-dressed man leans forward in his seat with his head in a covered pot set above a fiery hearth. The vessel beside the hearth almost certainly held ink. The man’s actions are explained by an inscription on the chair: "I distill my brain and am totally happy." Thus the task of the writer is equated with distillation—the process through which a liquid is purified by heating and cooling, extracting its essence. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Matt Pottinger reported for years out of China, served as a US Marine Corps intelligence officer in Iraq and Afghanistan, and held several senior roles on Trump's NSC , concluding his time in the White House as the Deputy National Security Advisor. Today, Matt chairs the China Program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. In this interview, we discuss: How Matt expects a second Trump administration’s China policy might develop. Why Trump is leaning more into strategic ambiguity than Biden, what that means for deterrence, and how that impacts the likelihood of him standing by were the PRC to invade Taiwan. Why bipartisan support for the US-China trade war will continue to shape the contours of great-power conflict. Matt’s look at the origins and political fallout of COVID-19. Plus, reflections on Mike Flynn and how Trump ran his NSC. SUBSCRIBE TO THE NEWSLETTER! https://www.chinatalk.media/ Outtro music: Miles Davis, So What https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylXk1LBvIqU Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Heart attacks, prostate cancer, Jake Sullivan awake for a home invasion attempt at 4 AM because he was just up working on a random Tuesday night? Is the national security bureaucracy in America unwell? To discuss, I have on today John Gans, a former Pentagon speechwriter, who’s had many, many other jobs in Washington. He is also the author of the fantastic “White House Warriors,” a history of the National Security Council. We get into: Why the organizational design of the NSC leads to such crushing burdens for midlevel and senior staffers The kinds of high-flyers that are drawn to the national security complex and what keeps them there How POTUS’s time constraints impact decision-making Why NSC’s historically are excellent at spotting problems but often overeager when crafting solutions The NSC’s role in America’s “forever wars.” Roosevelt, Kennedy, Nixon, and Trump’s “maverick model” of running the NSC compared to the Eisenhower vision of “regular order” How seemingly prosaic technological innovations like track changes and video conferencing have dramatically changed national security policymaking How reading Shakespeare can improve the quality of our policy-making What a better model could look like Illustration from the New Yorker's recent feature on Sullivan. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/16/trial-by-combat Outtro audio from Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kharis Templeman, research fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, returns to ChinaTalk to break down the recent Taiwan elections, held on January 13. We discuss: The lack of surprises in the election results, the subdued vibes during the campaign, and contrasts between local perspectives and foreign media narratives. Why the KMT failed to win the presidency, notwithstanding voter dissatisfaction with the DPP. China’s surprisingly muted response to the election, and how it may reassess its cross-Strait policies given a third DPP president. The new composition of the Legislative Yuan, and the strategic position of the Taiwan People’s Party as gatekeeper. Observations from Kharis’s time in Taiwan during the election season, and the gift of Taiwan’s democratic process. Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epwlWDCCevY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How did the US Navy evolve over the first half of the 20th century from a bunch of unschooled violent sailors who couldn't shoot straight to the world's largest and most technologically advanced fighting force? What lessons around organizational design can we learn from this transformation? Trent Hone, author of Learning War and Mastering the Art of Command, joins to discuss. Outtro Music: A selection from Brahms' 3rd Symphony, apparently Adm. Nimitz's favorite https://open.spotify.com/track/3T9xcTbS2E3epbncsMwkNC?si=296e316488c841d5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How did Lai win, what does China think, and what’s at stake for the DPP? ChinaTalk editor Nicholas Welch reads his latest recap of the 2024 Taiwan elections: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/taiwan-election-results-how-lai-won Subscribe to the newsletter! https://www.chinatalk.media Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JV9ayVWYr8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Should AI be more open or closed? What does it mean to be open, anyway? And can France overtake China in AI?? Today I'm running a crossover episode with the Retort AI, hosted by AI Ethicist Tom Gilbert and Nathan Lambert who writes the fantastic https://www.interconnects.ai/ newsletter covering technological advancements in machine learning. Outtro Music: Bela Fleck et al, Bahar https://open.spotify.com/track/4D1ne3QFCBtUU2xFnoTir4?si=aeef1aefc6e047c6 Cover photo is a Midjourney a riff off of this very cool Derian portrait showing in the MET till Jan 21 https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/846896?pkgids=884 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

New year, new PilotTalk! Ben Smith, editor-in-chief of Semafor, joins Jordan and editor Irene to watch Chinese and Taiwanese TV shows. Ben’s favorite genre is crime and police dramas, and we cover the following new-ish releases: A Date With The Future 照亮你 (2023, mainland): Romance where a firefighter falls in love with a journalist! **Ordinary Greatness** 警察荣誉 (2022, mainland): Sitcom about a local police station. The World Between Us 我們與惡的距離 (2019, Taiwan): Acclaimed miniseries set in the aftermath of a mass shooting, addressing media sensationalism, treatment of the mentally ill, and the death penalty. Outtro music: Kiss Me by Taiwanese artist Karencici https://open.spotify.com/track/7HZmJLWtISxYnoBqwx04bw?si=896165f1b52a4aa0 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Margaret Palmieri is the Deputy Chief Digital Artificial Intelligence Officer. I had her on to dicusss: Innovation vs diffusion in the DoD context Data issues making her life difficult How CDAO sources and tests ideas for implementing AI into different corners of the kill chain Thanks to the Andrew Marshall Foundation and the Hudson Institute’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology for bringing you this episode. Outtro music: SCIENTISTS & ENGINEERS Andre 3k, Killer Mike, Future, Erykah Badu https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kU0SmxKucCw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jake Newby of the substack Concrete Avalanche with an end of year ChinaTalk takeover! Here's his accompanying year in review post https://jakenewby.substack.com/p/2023-in-review?utm_source=activity_item Tracklist: Intro: 'Lost in China' (excerpt) – Tation 天声 (self-released) This 'postmodernist rock band from Tibet' produced some of their best work to date on the remarkable Illusions of the New Era EP. ‘Wen’s Woozy Wrap’ – Pu Poo Platter (fRUITYSHOP) Key cut from Brooklyn-formed Chinese funk group’s debut LP. ‘Greedysleeper’ – A Wordless Orange 沉默橙 (Taihe) Young Wuhan group deliver soulful pop-rock on one of the year’s best albums. ‘Watch the Crown’ – BoomHan 包涵 (Seafood Market Records) A sample of the 17-year-old Changsha rap prodigy’s impressive flow, from his debut album Gravediggaz. ‘Umbrella’ (featuring J-Fever) – PO8 (Tildawn Music) Not a Rihanna cover. Chengdu rapper toys with Shanghai jazz sounds. ‘Rap’ – ZhiYu Xia 夏之禹 (Mintone Records) Sichuan-born rapper, dubbed ‘the Jia Zhangke of hip hop’, dissects how he fell in love with the genre. ‘Where’s Tommy?’ – Hualun 花伦 (bié Records) intriguing change of direction from the ambient soundtrack masters. ‘Specter’ – The Fallacy 疯医 (Modern Sky) Brilliant return to form from Henan post-punks enlivened by new recruit Li Zenghui, who also played sax with Black Midi earlier this year ‘Cliff’ – The river, Orchestration, Walkman! 河边走 (self-released) Short sharp burst of bewildering brassy brilliance from one of the best new bands to emerge in 2023. ‘Vanished Instant’ – A Fishy Tale 有话 (Qiii Snacks Records) Another young band with a psychedelic sound; recorded during a trip to a Zhejiang mountain village. ‘East Yunnan Hallucinations’ – Instinkto Industrio 本能事业 (Maybe Mars) Folksy rhythms mix with techno-dystopian lyrics on one of 2023’s most characterful records. ‘Standing in the Wind’ – Zhaoze 沼泽 (self-released) Guangdong guqin-driven post-rock outfit’s new album is one of their best. ‘Station 2020’ – Wu Zhuoling 吴卓玲 (self-released) The leading lady of alternative Chengdu music serves up an immersive ambient tune. ‘The Little Assassin Who Lives Beside the Sea Becomes and Environmentalist’ – Li Daiguo 李带菓 (Beihesan) The Dali-based artist had a productive year; this beautiful number was among the highlights. ‘Daididau’ (excerpt) – Mamer (Old Heaven Books) A too-short taste of a 7-minute long improvised piece on traditional Kazakh instrument the sherter from musical genius Mamer. ‘Four Seasons’ – Hugjiltu (self-released) An emotive folk number from an album featuring ‘collaborations’ with tapes of the Mongolian musician’s late father. ‘Harbour for Bias’ – Louzhang 楼长 (Jyugam) An alt-ambient highlight from a strong year for this offbeat Guangdong electronic label. ‘Snoring in the Valley’ – Howie Lee (self-released) Quirky electronic music from the renowned producer, quietly slipped out at the start of the year. ‘Solaris’ – Zhang Weiwei 张玮玮 (self-released) Chinese folk grandee swaps his accordion for a synth to interesting effect on his first album in over a decade. ‘I Want An Earth’ – Yu Su (pinchy&friends) Title track from the celebrated producer’s impressive EP of clever, beguiling electronic sounds. ‘Holes of Time’ – 33EMYBW (SVBKVLT) A typically idiosyncratic slice of avant club music from one of China’s leading producers. ‘The Forest That Hears’ – Laughing Ears (self-released) A welcome return from one of the country’s most interesting electronic music artists. ‘W.C.’ (Liars remix) – otay:onii (No Gold) Acclaimed artist Angus Andrew adds a new dimension to otay:onii’s weirdness after bié Records released her third LP in March. ‘Ἀντὶ θεῶν’ – Ὁπλίτης (self-released) Incredible one-man-band creating blistering metal tunes examining Chinese social issues. In Greek, obviously. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

80 episodes and 145 newsletters later, we've made it through my first year working on ChinaTalk full time. Editor Ryan Hauser hosts a review episode where we reflect on the past year, get into my production function, what I think the point of all of this is, and how I expect to evolve ChinaTalk in 2024. Please get in touch! I'm at [email protected] Here's my cause exploration essay: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/E2BghQq9pwPgtHgiH/war-between-the-us-and-china-a-case-study-for-epistemic Outtro music: Gurrumul, Bayini https://open.spotify.com/track/1XZ9HxC4MiMUUNQ7WKFucM?si=a40c4dfdd71c428e Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brad Setser, fellow at CFR who spent a year during the Biden Administration in USTR, joins ChinaTalk to discuss: China's long term growth trajectory and implications for national power Zambia debt negotiations and Argentina's dollarization When strategic trade policy can make sense Panda export controls Sign up here for international intrigue! https://www.internationalintrigue.io/?utm_source=chinatalk&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=1223 Kyla Scanlon of the https://kyla.substack.com/ newsletter cohosts. Outtro music: I Hear a Rhapsody, Bill Evans and Jim Hall https://open.spotify.com/track/2oEvw0AfrT2fPNpEnBwVml?si=cc9f1add64034de7 Midjourney image: a panda bald eagle combined mystical animal in the style of a traditional chinese painting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Xu of https://interconnect.substack.com/ and I run down our top five stories of the year in US-China tech. We get into: The eternal chip war The battle for AI model supremacy EV competition Venture investing in China PDD and Temu's rise TikTok's impressive resilience Here's ChinaTalk's attempt to benchmark Chinese models https://www.chinatalk.media/p/putting-chinas-top-llms-to-the-test Outtro music: two songs from my spotify wrapped which are kind of ancillary to crappy US-China relations? 2gether, Mura Masa and Gretel Ganlyn: https://open.spotify.com/track/1Wqd0R1X1tuVK9FySVyLpt?si=48a61ddf3f094b57 No Talk, Lowell: https://open.spotify.com/track/0ToOqwERQswtN1O7AveCU9?si=9424183956b74960 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Taiwanese populace will head to the polls to choose their next president on January 13, 2024 — and the three-party slate is set! To discuss, we brought on Lu Yeh-chung 盧業中 — a professor of diplomacy at National Chengchi University 國立政治大學 — and Lin Fei-fan 林飛帆, previously the Deputy-Secretary of the DPP and well-known for leading the Sunflower Student Movement in 2014. Our conversation gets into: What a three-party race means in a first-past-the-post electoral system, and how the pan-blue and pan-green camps are feeling; Why the KMT-TPP alliance broke down, and what the pan-blue side needs to do to mobilize its electorate; The KMT’s and DPP’s views on whether Taiwanese and mainland Chinese are part of the same family 兩岸一家人; What the 1992 Consensus means to the KMT and DPP, and the tensions and synergies between idealism and functionalism in Taiwanese politics; How the CCP views the upcoming election, and to what extent it really fears pro-independence activists in Taiwan; What demarcates the KMT and DPP outside of cross-Strait politics, and which domestic issues are most compelling for the average Taiwanese voter; And how the KMT and DPP balance government spending on hard military assets versus subsidizing critical technologies like semiconductors. DPP ticket: president: William Lai Ching-te 賴清德 vice president: Hsiao Bi-khim 蕭美琴 KMT ticket: president: Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 vice president: Jaw Shaw-kong 趙少康 TPP ticket: president: Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 vice president: Cynthia Wu Hsin-ying 吳欣盈 Outro music: 回春丹- 鲜花 https://open.spotify.com/track/35XxW360SO3puJQDfuaY4r Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This was a good episode. Mike Gallagher, Chair of the Select Committee on China, has some thoughtful thoughts! We get into: How he would fix Congress Why the early Cold War is still relevant today What he took away from his time in Iraq and the Eisenhower Archives Why all you should really do to understand China is listen to ChinaTalk and read our substack (at https://www.chinatalk.media/) My book rec: https://www.amazon.com/Men-Machines-Modern-Times-Press/dp/0262529319 Outtro music, Ella Fitzgerald, My Cousin in Milwaukee https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWy9XjHt324 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rohit Krishnan of Strange Loop Canon and I kibbitz about this weekend's OpenAI drama as well as the safety and US-China regulatory dynamics likely raised in the discussions with the board. Some content we discussed: Jade Leung PhD thesis: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:ea3c7cb8-2464-45f1-a47c-c7b568f27665 Jeff Ding and Jenny Xiao's piece: https://www.governance.ai/research-paper/recent-trends-chinas-llm-landscape The Foreign Affairs piece: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/illusion-chinas-ai-prowess-regulation Image made by my mother on DALLE to represent Altman getting fired for the family groupchat. Outtro music: Happy Survival https://open.spotify.com/track/5txZKim1ruceUUhDlU84yc?si=b0d183344163418d It'l All Be Over: https://open.spotify.com/track/1KFtR58Hn1nQ9fR0DRnC9n?si=512636c8caf24610 Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Matt Turpin, China NSC Director in the Trump administration currently at Hoover and Palantir, comes on to discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly of US-China relations coming out of APEC. We get into: Realistic expectations for bilateral US-China diplomacy What are the necessary ingredients for coherent and effective policymaking What Matt expects and worries about from a second Trump administration Why foundations and corporations should sponsor ChinaTalk! Outtro music: Time/Breathe Reprise https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uw1bJrFdCjY Virtual insanity: https://open.spotify.com/track/24SUWisv2lYQiB3bVpE1sn?si=cf1cf18c0bc94ef7 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Peter Harrell, who served as Biden's Senior Director for International Economics and Competitiveness on the NSC and NEC, comes on to discuss: Why things do or don't happen in the executive branch What reforms we might need to accelerate and amplify decision-making Lessons from the sanctions response to the war in Ukraine for China Check out our newsletter at https://www.chinatalk.media. James Brown--Bewildered https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iXlDeqSTRA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This interview was so good. Jason Matheny, Biden's former top tech + national security advisor, has recently reached one year as CEO of RAND. We had a truly classic ChinaTalk-style conversation, hitting on: How to design a world-class research organization The right and wrong lessons to learn from RAND's heyday in the 1950s Existential risks around AI and bio Government's capacity to grok and implement technology strategy What national security professionals can learn from art and architecture And a ton more. Thanks to Check out the Hudson Institute's defense research center here: https://www.hudson.org/policycenters/center-defense-concepts-technology Some 1950s vibes for our outtro music: Julie London: https://open.spotify.com/track/6crfO56bDm0RjpctUuGs5X?si=5a434079b24b4d03 Doris Day: https://open.spotify.com/track/20G1XJaTwIm2IuwA3Pjg1d?si=22095e2f9aa842cc Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Zvi Mowshowitz of Don't Worry about The Vase and Nathan Labenz of the Cognitive Revolution podcast come on for a quick recap of the past week's AI news! We get into: What AI diplomacy is looking like post-Bletchley Park What new applications OpenAI's latest announcements mean for future AI applications Outtro: Bizarrap with Milo J https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGWa-GO8mKg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Biden just dropped a 50 page executive order that's going to make the world safe for AI, hopefully? To discuss the sprawling EO we've brought on three CNAS analysts, Vivek Chilukuri, Bill Drexel and Tim Fist. We touch on: Immigration and federal hiring If AI + bio can ever be a safe thing What's going to happen to cloud access What are the hoops you'll need to jump through to train GPT5 and whether they're enough What to do about open source Why Jordan just wants to be an AI czar RSVP to the Los Angeles meetup! https://partiful.com/e/SgjdajUSrD1aEOOrVgXk Outro music (yea I was not going to impose Devo on you all): The B Tune by Bela Fleck https://open.spotify.com/track/6h6vvG1t4xtfP9lkOKzBTv?si=6ec3f32629bd46a2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Jordan Schneider interviews Markus Anderling and Anton Korinek, two of the coauthors of the paper 'Frontier AI Regulation: Managing Emerging Risks to Public Safety'. They discuss the need for regulation and oversight of advanced AI models, known as frontier models, that have the potential to pose significant risks to public safety and national security. Jordan came in as a skeptic. Will he be convinced? Here's the paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.03718 Here's Markus' song choice: - -- ・ -・・ ・ ・-・・ ・- https://open.spotify.com/album/1NogWso5ElfJe4n8qKSdy9?si=mD9j5WB3TWuFGVkJRBI_Jg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Defense Minister Li Shangfu just got officially purged. To discuss, we brought on Joel Wuthnow, a fellow at NDU. His research areas include Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, US-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. He joined ChinaTalk to discuss Xi Jinping’s recent purges of high-ranking members of the People’s Liberation Army, Xi’s larger vision for the PLA, and what all this internal turmoil might mean for China’s longer-term designs on Taiwan. This was recorded earlier in October. Key insights: Over ten years after coming to power, Xi is still purging corruption from the military, reflecting his continued lack of trust in the PLA; Corruption is historically endemic in the PLA in part because of its incentive structure, which makes graft a prerequisite for rising through the ranks; Xi’s efforts to break up the PLA’s supervisory apparatus have only been partially successful (they’re still the same people even if they’re in a different department); Amid the anti-corruption shakeup, China’s Rocket Force has been successfully developing hypersonic missiles, technology viewed as critical to countering US intervention in a regional conflict over Taiwan; Despite Xi’s apparent distrust of his inner circle of military advisors, an echo chamber–induced invasion of Taiwan is still a live possibility. Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow with the National Defense University. Nicholas Welch cohosts. Outtro Music: The Weeknd's take on Drake's Trust Issues https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVCV6hyv7ac Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jason Furman was Obama's CEA chair and a Harvard econ professor, while Kyla is the my favorite economics influencer. We get into: What the deal is with inflation How policymaking is broken and what we need to fix it How Homer would tackle SBF Why goodreads is such a trash website Outtro music: Chocolate Snow, Inflation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9E6F8xMjoA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Two rabbis on ChinaTalk? What am I even doing? Zohar Atkins of the wonderful Meditations with Zohar podcast alongside Ari Lamm of Bnai Zion come to discuss and process the aftermath of the Oct 7th attack. Outtro music: Ishay Ribo - Seder Ha'Avoda https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECy3CMxShIQ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

BIS just released its revision to the Oct 7 2022 restrictions. Jon of Asianometry, Dylan of Semianalysis, and Doug of Fabricated Knowledge join the pod to discuss why NVIDIA got screwed, why ASML may not have, and what these regs mean for the future of China and AI. Outtro music: Warren G Regulate remix https://soundcloud.com/dj-eric-rhodes/warren-wallen-mashup-final-edit Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Israel is a country dear to my heart and I wanted to provide the ChinaTalk audience with one more perspective on the events of this past weekend before returning to our regularly scheduled program. To that end, I'm running a guest episode from the Promised Podcast, a show from TLV1 which is "an inside view of how Israel can warm your heart and make your blood boil. It’s a show by a journalist, a professor and an NGO professional who live in and love Israel even though it drives them crazy, and who each week discuss the latest in Israeli politics, culture, and society." Thanks for listening. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We discuss their experience of the past few days, China's response, its broader policy and aspirations in the Middle East, and what comes next. Our first guest is Carice Witte who is the founder and director of the SIGNAL Group. Second in the episode is Ofir Dayan, a researcher at the Israel-China Policy Center at INSS. Outtro music: World Champion, sung by family members and victims of terrorism https://youtu.be/yofkk5Vaif8?si=JskMFXK3-srR5z8L Lyrics translation: I'm a world champion in repressing Anything that scares me, anything stressful, I put on mute I'm a world champion in loving Firstly myself, then at the stage and the street The hardest is to give it to someone close I'm a world champion in not being In not solving your problems Even the pictures on the walls I wasn't the one who hanged them I'm only in charge of the melodies I'm a world champion in falling And getting back up like a champ You'll see, like a phoenix I'm burning, but choosing every day to live on I'm a world champion in wanting At least trying You'll see, how in the end After the losses, the victory is so much sweeter I'm a world champion I'm a world champion in justifying Weaknesses and desires The urge is an old acquaintance I know every old trick it keeps in its bag But look, someday I'll be righteous Deep down what I have is not enough, at all I'm a little rat and life is a pipe1 Falling down the hole because I can't distinguish Between good and evil, and where does it all lead to You're being all usual But soon we'll run out of fuse I'm a world champion in falling And getting back up like a champ You'll see, like a phoenix I'm burning, but choosing every day to live on I'm a world champion in wanting At least trying You'll see, how in the end After the losses, the victory is so much sweeter I'm a world champion I'm a world champion in compensating Apologizing and pleasing Sinning, cleansing myself Exposing, covering up Say, how can one write songs with a thousand expectations Millions of views I'm a world champion in falling And getting back up like a champ You'll see, like a phoenix I'm burning, but choosing every day to live on I'm a world champion Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kurt Campbell is the Deputy Assistant to the President and the White House Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs. ChinaTalk recently joined Campbell in Washington to discuss US-China relations and mark the podcast’s 300th episode. We discuss: The nature of national power today; If China is peaking; How ideology impacts Beijing’s foreign policy; Campbell’s hopes and fears for the Biden administration’s Asia policy; Whether the US is still aiming to “maintain as large of a lead as possible” on chips and AI; How to think about the risk of and effectively deter military escalation; And the dark shadow of Tiananmen and its lasting impact on Chinese politics and US foreign policy. Outtro music: Brahms: Sonata in E flat major for Viola and Piano, Op. 120, No. 2 I. Allegro amabile https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYrC4rx5VrA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

James Wang, partner at Creative Ventures, joins to discuss: Huawei breakthrough implications and why NVIDIA's CUDA will make it particularly difficult to create a useful domestic AI chip Why China's AI companies have been underperforming my expectations How semiconductor industry dynamics parallel the challenges facing AI startups How pizza machines explain AI's future impact on the labor market Challenges and opportunities in investing in deep tech, including the eager but raw founder talent pool as well as the importance of market structure and distinguishing between R&D and engineering risk This show was brought to you by Creative Ventures. Creatives Ventures is at https://creativeventures.vc/ James writes at https://weightythoughts.com/ and tweets at @AJamesWang Outtro Music: the legendary Combination Pizza Hut and Taco Bell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Noah Smith of https://www.noahpinion.blog/ and Matt Klein of https://theovershoot.co/ join ChinaTalk to discuss: We get into: What's really happening with China's economy and why it matters strategically How China's potential peak parallels Japan's Why the world should and shouldn't be scared of China's progress in semis and EVs What another Trump Administration could do for US-China relations How Noah actually does his substack This was a fun one, I hope you enjoy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Huawei’s breakthrough Kirin 9000s: what is it, why is it a big deal, and what if anything should the US do about it? Joining me, I have on two fantastic semiconductor analysis, Doug O'Laughlin of Fabricated Knowledge and Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis. We get into: How this chip illustrates Chinese engineering excellence and the porous nature of the current export control regime Why we can expect AI chips on par with the A100 coming out of China in the next two years What steps the US government could take to tighten export controls and set back the Chinese semiconductor ecosystem How China has come to dominate both the lagging edge and the EV space Here's my piece on the topic: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/huaweis-breakthrough-the-strategic And here's Dylan's: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/china-ai-and-semiconductors-rise Outtro music: 潮州土狗 - 50元的檳榔 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjl2qabfSNs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode of China Talk explores the past, present, and future of Congress with AEI's Philip Wallach. We get into: Origins of representative government trace back to medieval England, when the king consulted regional advisors – leading to development of Parliament Founders inspired by this model when establishing Congress, wanting representation for diverse parts of young U.S. But competing visions emerged for how Congress should work: Madison's view: embrace factional conflict and compromise Wilson's view: stronger centralized leadership These tensions played out through different eras of Congress: Early years: backlash against Hamilton’s Treasury power leads to first political party New Deal/WWII: Congress oversees executive branch while enabling key programs Civil rights era: Senate leaders allow extended filibuster, focus national attention, build enduring coalition 1970s reforms decentralize Congress but decrease cooperation between members over time Under 1994 Gingrich revolution, partisan centralization becomes norm – embraced by both parties Potential futures discussed, including a fever dream of Philip's where an immigration crisis actually prompts real lawmaking. Outtro music: Nixon's 1972 campaign song Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How does the public, corporations, academia and civil society end up directly influencing some of China's most important regulations? What's the trajectory of China's approach to AI? Matt Sheehan of CIEP returns to discuss the AI regulatory policy process in China! Matt's paper: https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/07/10/china-s-ai-regulations-and-how-they-get-made-pub-90117 Outtro music: 曾涵江Cup ：天选 CHOSEN ONE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OB607_3sDYQ Image: I took an image from Dunhuang and prompted it with "artificial intelligence" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Culture month continues with some traditional Chinese painting coverage! What was it like to paint in premodern China? How did a husband-wife and master-mentee team up to produce some remarkable art? Why is it okay to say Chinese art is "good" or "bad" while those who critique western art have so much heartburn over saying their opinion? Cohosting is Joseph Scheier-Dolberg, Chinese paintings curator at the MET. This episode is better experienced on YouTube. Check out the video on ChinaTalk's YouTube channel here: https://youtu.be/Rxr6xOj29A8 Here's the link to the exhibit: https://www.metmuseum.org/exhibitions/learning-to-paint/exhibition-objects Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Emily Benson (CSIS) and Martin Chorzempa (PIIE) come on to discuss the new executive order and Treasury's ANRPM (advanced notice of proposed rulemaking) on novel outbound investment screening rules on AI, quantum and semis. Treasury document: https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/206/Treasury-ANPRM.pdf Outtro music: 水碾河南三街 LSGCsikoriot https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Wzz1Deafh8 Midjourney: used this 18th century Japanese woodprint and prompted it with "quantum semiconductor" https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/55371 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Should democracies band together to protect themselves from Chinese economic coercion? What can deterrence theory teach us about geoeconomic strategy? To discuss these questions, I brought on Matt Goodman and Matt Reynolds of CSIS along with Matt Klein of The Overshoot and David Talbot of the Milken Institute. We discuss: –Why China uses economic coercion, especially against smaller states. –How democracies might join together to deter and respond to this aggression. –Why reslience beats retaliation when it comes to economic conflict. Outro music: "(You're The) Devil in Disguise," Elvis Presley. Check out our newsletter! chinatalk.media Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This August, ChinaTalk is going to take a bit of a break from our usual routine of tech and politics coverage to spend some time with Chinese culture! Starting us off is Jake Newby of the Concrete Avalanche substack who will be taking us through a radio hour of some of the most interesting independent music coming out of China. Here's the playlist: Intro music: Voision Xi - 'Too Late to Complain' from Five Loops in Her Way. More on that EP here; listen to Voision's jazz record Lost For Words here. 1. Voision Xi - 'Catch the Train' from Eating Music's Running With Friends. More on that compilation here. 2. Vii M - 'Man O' War (Cocoonics remix)' from The Other Side of Sublunary (The Remixes). More on Vii M and Sublunary here. 3. Lygort Trio - '藏身之处' from Lygort Trio. More on them here. 4. Hualun - 'Cities of the Red Night' from Tempus. More on Tempus here. 5. Zhou Shijue - '幸福来的这么自然‘ from 应运而生. More on his record with J-Fever and Eddie Beatz here. 6. 33EMYBW - 'The Unheard Southern Mountains' from Long May the Water Flow. More on that compilation here. 7. Li Daiguo - '小精灵幼儿园放学' from 吥哔呢未来音:奇幻童年. 8. Zhaoze - 'Stand in Wind' from No Answer Blowin' in the Wind. More on that album here. 9. Ὁπλίτης - 'Ὁ τῶν τραυμάτων ἄγγελος' from Τρωθησομένη. More on Hoplites here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How is the DoD thinking about deploying AI? What are the challenges and opportunities involved in building out AI assurance? To discuss, I brought on Dr. Jane Pinelis, Chief AI Engineer The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. She was previously the Chief of the Test, Evaluation, and Assessment branch at the Department of Defense Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC). Prior to joining the JAIC, Dr. Pinelis served as the Director of Test and Evaluation for USDI’s Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team, better known as Project Maven. Cohosting is Karson Elmgren of CSET. Outtro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgzGwKwLmgM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Until yesterday, Qin Gang 秦刚 was serving as China’s Minister of Foreign Affairs. But on Monday, July 24, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee announced an emergency meeting for the next day, July 25, during which Qin was “removed” 免职 (albeit not “dismissed” 撤职) from his position as China’s #2 diplomat. To dissect the rumors and make sense of it all, we have on Matt Brazil — a senior China analyst at BluePath Labs, writer for SpyTalk, fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, and longtime friend ChinaTalk. (Check out our January 2021 show with Matt!) We discuss: Precisely what we know and don’t know about l’affaire Qin; How journalist Fu Xiaotian 傅晓田 is wrapped up in all of this — and how those with CCP connections somehow end up with private jets and buy-ins to elite universities; Qin’s possible connections to the Ministry of State Security — and why that might rub his subordinates the wrong way; How the CCP has dispensed with previous political elites, and whether Qin’s treatment resembles theirs; and Why it is that sometimes even the heads of CCP security don’t even know what’s going on! Outro music: 我要你的愛, by 葛蘭; “Saving All My Love For You,” by Whitney Houston Check out our newsletter! https://www.chinatalk.media Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

ChinaTalk welcomes Taiwan expert and Hoover research fellow Kharis Templeman. This episode is all things 2024 Taiwan elections — slated for January 13, 2024. In addition to his teaching responsibilities, Kharis is the program manager of the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific, and previously was the program manager of the Taiwan Democracy and Security Project. In this show, we discuss: The frontrunners’ profiles — Lai Ching-te 賴清德, Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜, and Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 — and what makes this three-way race different from previous elections; Why the KMT’s nomination process was somewhat quirky this time around; The importance of party unity, and why some Taiwanese political parties have failed to unify in past election cycles; What’s on Taiwanese voters’ minds — beyond national-security concerns; The CCP’s preferred winner — plus if and how any PRC-based interference may manifest over the coming months; Why Taiwan’s election system is “unhackable”; What to make of the spread of disinformation and hyper-partisanship in Taiwan’s domestic media; And some pro tips on escaping the DC bubble and understanding the Taiwanese populace. Outro music: Bubble Tea, by Mango Street Papa 芒果街老爸 Check out our newsletter, too! https://www.chinatalk.media Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

• How did the Chinese EV industry become so dominant? • What institutional and cultural factors shape China’s auto market? • What can Western democracies learn from Chinese industrial policy? To discuss these questions, I brought on GWU professor John Helveston, an expert in tech and innovation policy and Chinese electric vehicles. Outro music: https://open.spotify.com/track/4QQEzkxcONBthDLfzqIh9S?si=2af235017c8c4449 Photo: Peter Parks/AFP/Getty Images Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What companies beyond OpenAI matter to the future of AI? What is the relationship between closed and open source source? When will researchers lose the reins to government on AI's trajectory? To discuss, this week I brought on Matt Lynley of the fantastic Supervised News substack as well as Lux Capital's Danny Crichton. Jade Leung's thesis: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:ea3c7cb8-2464-45f1-a47c-c7b568f27665 Outtro music: https://open.spotify.com/track/2opgXfgG4tdM2fuHiamoaG?si=e1eabaf135d846d3 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Foreign aid is dominated by just a few huge players that receive the bulk of grants from the US government. But is bigger better? And are local players with innovative solutions to global issues missing out? Unlock Aid wants to see smaller stakeholders get access to more funding and seats at the table. The group’s executive director, Walter Kerr and COO Amanda Arch explain why. We also discuss: How much the US spends on foreign aid each year and who gets that money. How to make the distribution of foreign aid more efficient. Why Unlock Aid wants to break down the barriers to accessing public funding. How AI could be used in foreign aid. China’s latest attempts to restrict data access to international researchers. Outro music: 好了啦 (Piss Off) by 鼓鼓呂思緯 (GBOYSWAG) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D-ixUMcTPY Check out the Substack at ChinaTalk.media! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Paul Huang, Taiwan military expert and research fellow at the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, returns to ChinaTalk! Today he gives us an update on Taiwan’s military readiness, the PLA’s expansion, and whether Xi Jinping would really send it. If you missed his episode back in 2020, give it a listen, too. And check out his recent thoughts posted on NBR, as well as his long-form special report, “Threats to Taiwan’s Security from China’s Military Modernization.” In this episode, we cover: The status quo of Taiwan’s reservist forces and command-and-control capabilities — and how Western countries perceive that status quo; How the PLA’s military capabilities stack up against Russia’s performance in the Ukraine war thus far; What insights we can glean from PLA-facing propaganda; Why Ukrainian forces have been successful in repelling the Russian military thus far, and why Xi Jinping would loathe a protracted war over Taiwan; Paul’s take on the PLA’s recent military maneuvers against US and Canadian assets in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea; What the Taiwanese populace believes about PLA military action, US military support for Taiwan — and why these trends have changed over time; China’s robust satellite expansion program, and how it plays a role in its aircraft carrier “kill chain”; Likely and unlikely PLA invasion scenarios — and the corresponding discussions that would occur in the White House; What Taiwan military officials — like Admiral Lee Hsi-ming (Ret.) 李喜明 — think about Taiwan’s military readiness for an invasion. If you liked the podcast, make sure to hop on our newsletter, too! https://www.chinatalk.media Outro music: 逆光 - Kimberley Chen 陳芳語 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDw1B_hWwbw This interview was taped on June 16, 2023, in Taipei. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What happened over the past few days in Russia? What does this mean for the future of Putin and the war in Ukraine? To discuss, I recorded today a show with Kamil Galeev, a PKU classmate of mine formerly of the Wilson Center. Outtro music: Repo Man, Coup d'etat https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJjuVzZQj0U Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Blinken went to China to meet with Qin Gang, Wang Yi, and Xi himself! What happened, why does it matter, and does this make it any less likely we'll be in WWIII anytime soon? Do discuss, I bought on Dali Yang, political science professor at UChicago, and Nathaniel Sher of Carnegie. Subscribe to ChinaTalk at https://chinatalk.substack.com/! Outtro music (a two-parter!): Selena Gomez: Lose You to Love Me https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlJDTxahav0 Beyonce: Start Over https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJAXC1lz65I Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices