ChinaTalk

One does not simply invade Taiwan — but George Marshall once thought long and hard about it. In 1944, in the middle of the island-hopping campaign, American war planners set their sights on Japanese-controlled Formosa. What did the American invasion plan look like? Why did Marshall decide to go another route? What lessons do this and other amphibious invasions hold for Taiwan’s current force posture? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed US Army Field Artillery Lieutenant Colonel J. Kevin McKittrick, currently at the Air War College in Alabama and a veteran of multiple deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan. Co-hosting today is our resident Taiwan consultant Nicholas Welch. We discuss: The US military’s aborted plan to invade Taiwan during WWII; Why bigger is better when it comes to amphibious assaults; What the US got right and the CCP gets wrong about civil-military relations; Taiwan’s defense concept, and the opportunities presented by “operational pause”; The awful, unending relevance of traditional artillery in modern war; And why the US doesn’t need its own “rocket force” … yet. Outtro music: 被動 (Passive) by 伍佰 Wu Bai&China Blue. Youtube Link. Photo: White House, July 29, 1942. Left to right: Admiral Ernest King, Admiral William Leahy, and General George Marshall. | Wikimedia Commons Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Taiwan’s government agencies are battered by 5 million cyberattacks every day. China is holding invasion drills at a replica of Taiwan’s presidential palace in Inner Mongolia. Last week, the PLA openly rehearsed an encirclement of Taiwan in so-called “punishment drills.” What happened to deterrence in the Taiwan Strait? Can the status quo be saved? To discuss strategies for avoiding WWIII, ChinaTalk interviewed Jared McKinney of the Air War College and Peter Harris of Colorado State University, who recently co-authored a monograph entitled, “Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait.” Co-hosting today is ChinaTalk’s resident Taiwan consultant, Nicholas Welch. We discuss… Evidence of deterrence decay in the status quo; The difference between constraints and restraints, and how they fit together to form a lattice of successful deterrence; Whether symbolic solidarity with Taiwan does more harm than good; The values and costs of strategic ambiguity; How Taiwan can optimize its deterrence posture; Lessons from the dance of death between Iran and Israel; Objective factors for measuring invasion risk, and whether the world should be scared about 2027; How to analyze decision trees for fundamentally irrational decisions; ... and more! Outtro music: MJ116, 辣台妹 (HOT CHICK) - Official music video: MJ116【辣台妹 HOT CHICK】- (youtube link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Good AI is good and bad AI is bad, but how do lawmakers tell the difference? Will AI bring the world together or balkanize the internet beyond repair? Why do governments even need cloud computing anyway? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Pablo Chavez, a fellow at CNAS and former Vice President of Google Cloud's Public Policy division, as well as the inestimable investing tycoon Kevin Xu. Xu, formerly of GitHub, is the founder of Interconnected, a bilingual newsletter on the intersections of tech, business, investing, geopolitics, and US-Asia relations. In this interview, we discuss: The digital sovereignty movement and the lessons we can learn from China's Great Firewall; The value and risks of open source architecture in the future of AI governance; Meta’s long history of open source and how Llama fits into that strategy; The geopolitical and cultural forces driving nations to pursue their own AI strategies; The viability of sovereign AI initiatives in the face of global tech giants. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nathan Lambert of the Interconnects substack and Allen Institute joins for a roundup where we get into: What DC should understand about the Bay Area AI engineer psyche What GPT4o and Google's AI Dev Day mean for the future of AI OpenAI's model spec, and exit, voice, and loyalty in the leading labs Outtro music: Scarlett Johansson's The Moon Song Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We're taking one out of the archives! Douglas Irwin is a Dartmouth professor and the author of Clashing Over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy. On this episode, Irwin provides an overview to the history of U.S. trade policy from the 18th century to the modern day, highlighting significant legislation as well as the formation of important intergovernmental organizations that have sprung up along the way. Outro Music: Janis Joplin, Mercedes Benz 19:53: On the flawed logic behind the Tariff Act of 1930, and the parallels with similarly problematic thinking in the modern day: “There’s absolutely a parallel there because some Democrats in Congress said, ‘You know, we ought to really think about this carefully, and not just our domestic interest but also our export interests, and other countries might retaliate.’ And basically, the reaction of most members of Congress was, Republicans at the time, ‘No, we don’t have to worry about that. This is a domestic piece of legislation, it doesn’t really concern other countries. They’re not going to retaliate.’ And, of course, they did.” 39:40: Doug discusses the tips and tricks behind one example of “tariff engineering”: “The tariffs applied to motorcycles with piston displacements of 700cc and above. What Honda started doing is producing a 699cc version. Now the difference [between the two] is imperceptible, but just by changing that one cubic centimeter, it changed the whole tariff treatment and you avoided a 45 percent tariff and were assessed at a much, much lower rate.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brad Setser of CFR talks Biden's new tariffs! Earlier podcast deep dive on Chinese EV policy: ChinaTalk: Why Chinese EVs Will Take Over the World on Apple Podcasts Earlier podcast on the deep history of US trade policy: ChinaTalk: Tarriffs, taxes, and trade: Doug Irwin on ChinaEconTalk on Apple Podcasts Brad's paper: Power and Financial Interdependence (ifri.org) Outtro Music: Golden Earring's Radar Love Here's a fun playlist on the best car songs: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/6l0sSAdFwyCH1yzQX2IrKQ?si=fb3b8fdd29644631 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Charles Clancy is the CTO of MITRE, an American not-for-profit organization managing federally funded research and development centers (FFRDCs) supporting various US government agencies in defense, healthcare, national security, and cybersecurity fields, among others. In this interview, we discuss: What is MITRE and how does it support national science & technology strategy How China threatens America’s infrastructure and university R&D The cyber workforce gap and how AI could fill it Finding mission-driven work for highly skilled technologists How the ecosystem of S&T and R&D funding evolved through the 20th century to today Outtro music: Yung Bae, Magic Yung Bae - Magic (youtube.com) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

TSMC is taking on Arizona. How's it going? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Viola Zhou, journalist at Rest of World. She has published pieces on Foxconn's quest to make iPhones in India and most recently, a gripping feature about the cultural challenges that TSMC is facing trying to manufacture semiconductors in the USA. Throughout her story, we get a peek into a world of rigid hierarchies, American workers who are slow on the uptake, and culture clash over pornographic desktop flair. Today’s interview discusses: Sleuthing techniques for independent journalism; The challenges faced by Taiwanese semiconductor engineers relocating to Arizona; TSMC’s management style and the complaints raised by new American employees; The similarities and differences between TSMC’s expansion to the USA and Foxconn’s expansion to India; Whether adapting to American work culture will tank the prospects of the new Phoenix Fab. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

India’s elections are underway! What does the future hold for the world’s largest democracy? Will the election results impact India-China relations? What about India-US relations? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Dr. Raja Mohan, Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore. Co-hosting today is James Crabtree, author of The Billionaire Raj. We get into: What the border disputes between China and India can tell us about the political economy of the two nations; The anti-imperial history that frames India-China relations; Modi’s election prospects and India’s spirit of democracy; What score Biden’s diplomatic team has earned in Southeast Asia; Criticisms of Modi and accusations of democratic backsliding; Opportinities for friction in the US-India relationship, including Trump tariffs, immigration, and Russia; Whether the US is making a “bad bet” on India, and how India is prepared to involve itself during an invasion of Taiwan. Outtro Music: Jhoome Jo Pathaan Vishal-Shekhar, Arijit Singh, Sukriti Kakar, Vishal Dadlani, Shekhar Ravjiani, Kumaar https://open.spotify.com/track/6FAYpZ4jve8vpvTwUvjK6H?si=66c7c984fd52497cs 12 Bande 12 Bande - song and lyrics by Varinder Brar | Spotify Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ryan Takeshita is the Chief Global Editor at PIVOT, a new media outlet in Japan focused on the emerging startup scene. We get into: A stroll through recent economic history leading to today's 'boom times' Why more people are looking to leave traditional occupations for insurgent firms Challenges around demographics and immigration Outtro Music: Idol by Yaosobi https://open.spotify.com/track/1hAloWiinXLPQUJxrJReb1?si=36552bdc34cb4a73 Matsuri No Genzo by Hideo Shiraki and 3 Koto Girls https://open.spotify.com/track/6eTteH1zyZeQKZ2Mu7VC5d?si=230b3d1739d5417e Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To learn about Japan’s new economic national security policy, export controls, chip policy, lessons from history, and even space policy, we interviewed Kazuto Suzuki. Suzuki-san is a professor at the University of Tokyo. He serves as an advisor to Japan’s Ministry of the Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) as well as advising Japan’s space program. He served on the UN Security Council's Iran Sanctions Panel, and he also recently established the Institute of Geoeconomics at the International House of Japan. We get into… What Japan’s new economic national security law does, and what it means for global semiconductor supply chains; The state of multilateral export controls; Nippon steel, the US election, and cooperation between East Asian democracies; Historical examples of economic coercion, from the Qing Dynasty to FDR vs imperial Japan to the Senkaku islands; Japan’s goals for space commercialization; … and more! Co-hosting today is Arrian Ebrahimi, student at Yenching academy and author of the Chip Capitols Substack. Outtro Music: Every Breath You Take/Theme from Peter Gunn as featured on the Sopranos The Sopranos - Every Breath You Take (youtube.com) Cover photo: Toyohara Kuniteru III | Illustration of the Imperial Diet House of Commons with a Listing of all Members | Japan | Meiji period (1868–1912) | The Metropolitan Museum of Art (metmuseum.org) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Just minutes after the Taiwan earthquake yesterday, Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis, Doug O'Laughlin of Fabricated Knowledge, Jon of Asianometry and yours truly had a brief hang where we got into: Intel's process progress and rocky financial road ahead Reflections out of GTC Jensen's galaxy brain Photo of the woman who saved Intel, Dr. Ann Kelleher, General Manager of Foundry Technology Development. Outtro music: YELLOW黃宣 & 9m88 - 怪天氣 Strange Weather https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1n_i0JupwRA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Straight from Tokyo, Japan: an exclusive with Amb. Rahm Emanuel. Before his current posting as US ambassador to Japan, Rahm served as a senior advisor to Bill Clinton, multiple terms in the US House of Representatives, Obama’s first chief of staff, and the mayor of Chicago. If nothing else, you can count on his gloves-off, no-holds-barred approach to politics — and he’s been no different when it comes to China. Notwithstanding reports that even officials in Biden’s NSC have told him to stop “taunting” China, Rahm has been consistently, uniquely willing to say out loud what virtually every other high-ranking US official doesn’t. Of course, the ambassador — or, as his desk placard during his chief-of-staff days read, “Undersecretary for Go Fuck Yourself” — may take issue with that framing. His comments aren’t “critical,” Rahm says, but “truthful.” This interview covers a ton of ground. On China: How the Biden administration is closing the chapter on “hub and spokes,” what tomorrow’s “latticework” architecture will look like, and what Asia-Pacific alliances might look like under a second Trump administration; The future of Japan-Korea, and a peek behind the curtain on how the historic Camp David summit materialized; Rahm’s “3 Cs” for China — calm, conflict, charm — and how US foreign-policy leaders should reckon the mutual inconsistencies among those three; And roads not taken by Xi: why Rahm thinks China’s entrepreneurial culture has taken a nosedive, and what China’s government today is most scared of. And on politics and life: Why “diplomacy” and “politics” are the same thing — and why that’s a good thing; Whether the State Department suffers from a personality deficit, and what makes for a good ambassador; How to heal America’s body politic — post-Trump, post-Recession, post-GWOT; Why Rahm thinks “quality time” with kids is “BS,” and thoughts on raising kids as a time-crunched politician; And what Rahm thinks the biggest emerging threat to the world is. I really enjoyed my trip to Japan, and I’d love a financial excuse to continue recording shows on the country. If you work at JETRO, METI, The Japan Foundation, Mitsubishi, Rakuten, etc. and are interested in seeing more deep coverage of Japan and US-China-Japan relations on this podcast, do reach out! Outtro music: Tadao Hayashi Japanese Harp Trio's 1977 take on I Could Have Danced All Night Tadao Hayashi Harp Trio – The Impossible Dream 1977 (youtube.com) Also from 1977, Tokai by Kaeko Onuki Tokai (youtube.com) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Biotech. What is it? Why should you care? Does biotech really matter for national security? What are China’s biotech ambitions? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Jason Kelly, the Chair and Vice Chair of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology. Jason is the Co-Founder and CEO of Ginkgo Bioworks, a publicly traded firm that provides a horizontal platform for cell programming. Michelle Rozo is currently Vice President of Technical Capabilities at In-Q-Tel, and she previously held positions in Biden’s NSC, the Department of Defense, and on the Hill. Co-hosting today is Chris “CRISPR” Miller, author of Chip War. We get into: The powerful science behind genetic engineering ; How the US government turned biotechnology into a $1 trillion industry over the course of the last fifty years; Why generative AI is destined to revolutionize synthetic biology; And whether China’s national biotech champions can leapfrog the US. Outtro music: Suite Bergamasque: Clair de Lune, No. 3 (youtube.com) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is Congress for real this time? To discuss the US domestic politics of the dramatic rollout and broader social, national, and geopolitical implications of the House's passage of a bill that would force Bytedance to divest from TikTok US, Ben Smith of Semafor joins the podcast. Outtro music: Olivia Rodrigo - Deja Vu 【Sped Up & reverb】 (youtube.com) The Platters - Only You - Lyrics - YouTube Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How do you stand up an effective national AI project? Is the world prepared for the Reformation-level societal change AI could bring? Matt Clifford, according to Politico Britain’s most powerful tech adviser, joins ChinaTalk to discuss! He served as Prime Minister Sunak's sherpa for the UK AI Summit, chairs ARIA, the UK's answer to DARPA, and co-founded Entrepreneur First, a startup incubator with a strong presence throughout Europe and Southeast Asia. We get into: Tech Diplomacy & the UK AI Safety Summit: How countries are waking up to the watershed moment at the advent of powerful new AI, and the surprising commonalities in China’s perspectives on AI safety. Organizational Design at ARIA: What are the challenges creating a world-class science project in government? How can you attract the best people and create the right organizational culture for success? Open Source AI and the Global AI Race — How should we evaluate the approaches to AI across different countries and private actors? What’s the verdict on open source models? Preparing for monumental changes — and why history cautions against expecting business as usual, and how fiction can open our mind to the possibilities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chinese Doomscroll, which faithfully records happenings from the wild west that is Weibo (China’s Twitter/X equivalent), won the ChinaTalk award for best China-focussed Substack on 2023. Today we have on the brain behind the newsletter: Molly, who’s been doomscrolling for us since early 2023. We discuss: Why Weibo keeps Molly up at night; Chinese elementary school kids’ academic prowess; How social issues gain attention on the trending list; Terrible bots; And what makes microblogging uniquely compelling. Outtro music is 演员 by Joker Xue 薛之谦: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKuL5xaKZHM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How can AI change diplomacy? To discuss the State Department’s options for AI integration, we interviewed the State Department's Deputy Chief Data and AI Officer, Garrett Berntsen. He served as an officer during two tours in Afghanistan and recently rotated off the NSC. He's optimistic diplomacy can be more effective with comprehensive, timely, and accurate data-driven analysis, and that AI will be part of achieving that mission. We get into: How AI can streamline bureaucratic busy work The value of data-driven negotiation prep in diplomatic contexts The benefits of transparency in a democratic society What level of risk is appropriate for the civil service How close he is to getting ChatGPT into State The balance between transparency and secrecy in the age of big data How the Snowden leaks changed the State Department’s relationship with technology What the State Department can and can't import from the private sector Thanks to the Hudson Institute and Andrew Marshall Foundation for supporting this podcast. Outtro music: 國蛋 GorDoN - White Noise ft. 蛋堡 Soft Lipa https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31ZM440owzw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Why can India design chips with the best of them but has completely failed to develop fabs, much less a broader electronics industry? To discuss, I have on Pranay Kotasthane, former chip designer at TI and Qualcomm who now works at the Takshashila Institution and is the author of the new book When the Chips are Down. Chris Miller of Chip War cohosts. We get into: How the political economy of technology in India led to world class software and services but underwhelming manufacturing Why India was slower to the uptake than China that socialism really sucks at getting your country rich What it takes to design a chip. Outtro music: Ye Jo Des Hai Tera https://youtu.be/4tiVPuLbbHg?feature=shared Image: spectacular Mughal painting of an elephant currently on at the Met. that I prompted with semiconductor alot https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/825607?pkgids=906 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What does it take to train a frontier model? What's the know-how, the secret sauce that makes firms lets OpenAI and Deepmind push the limits of what's possible? How much are Chinese firms benefitting from western open source, and in the long term is it possible for western labs to maintain an edge? The hosts of the excellent Latent Space podcast, Alessio Fanelli of Decibel VC and Shawn Wang of Smol AI, come on to discuss. We get into: How the secret sauce used to push the frontier of AI diffuses out of the top labs and into substacks How labs are managing the culture change from quasi-academic outfits to places that have to ship How open source raises the global AI standard, but why there's likely to always be a gap between closed and open source China as a "GPU Poor" nation Three key algorithmic innovations that could reshape the balance of power between the GPU rich and GPU poor Outtro music: CHEKI https://open.spotify.com/track/1zKL2bOEkMDGuIjLhG34YA?si=9a713a88aa3d4f71 Cover photo: "Inkstand with A Madman Distilling His Brains" 1600s Urbino. Kind of like training a model! https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/188899 The met description: In this whimsical maiolica sculpture, a well-dressed man leans forward in his seat with his head in a covered pot set above a fiery hearth. The vessel beside the hearth almost certainly held ink. The man’s actions are explained by an inscription on the chair: "I distill my brain and am totally happy." Thus the task of the writer is equated with distillation—the process through which a liquid is purified by heating and cooling, extracting its essence. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Matt Pottinger reported for years out of China, served as a US Marine Corps intelligence officer in Iraq and Afghanistan, and held several senior roles on Trump's NSC , concluding his time in the White House as the Deputy National Security Advisor. Today, Matt chairs the China Program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. In this interview, we discuss: How Matt expects a second Trump administration’s China policy might develop. Why Trump is leaning more into strategic ambiguity than Biden, what that means for deterrence, and how that impacts the likelihood of him standing by were the PRC to invade Taiwan. Why bipartisan support for the US-China trade war will continue to shape the contours of great-power conflict. Matt’s look at the origins and political fallout of COVID-19. Plus, reflections on Mike Flynn and how Trump ran his NSC. SUBSCRIBE TO THE NEWSLETTER! https://www.chinatalk.media/ Outtro music: Miles Davis, So What https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylXk1LBvIqU Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Heart attacks, prostate cancer, Jake Sullivan awake for a home invasion attempt at 4 AM because he was just up working on a random Tuesday night? Is the national security bureaucracy in America unwell? To discuss, I have on today John Gans, a former Pentagon speechwriter, who’s had many, many other jobs in Washington. He is also the author of the fantastic “White House Warriors,” a history of the National Security Council. We get into: Why the organizational design of the NSC leads to such crushing burdens for midlevel and senior staffers The kinds of high-flyers that are drawn to the national security complex and what keeps them there How POTUS’s time constraints impact decision-making Why NSC’s historically are excellent at spotting problems but often overeager when crafting solutions The NSC’s role in America’s “forever wars.” Roosevelt, Kennedy, Nixon, and Trump’s “maverick model” of running the NSC compared to the Eisenhower vision of “regular order” How seemingly prosaic technological innovations like track changes and video conferencing have dramatically changed national security policymaking How reading Shakespeare can improve the quality of our policy-making What a better model could look like Illustration from the New Yorker's recent feature on Sullivan. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/16/trial-by-combat Outtro audio from Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kharis Templeman, research fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, returns to ChinaTalk to break down the recent Taiwan elections, held on January 13. We discuss: The lack of surprises in the election results, the subdued vibes during the campaign, and contrasts between local perspectives and foreign media narratives. Why the KMT failed to win the presidency, notwithstanding voter dissatisfaction with the DPP. China’s surprisingly muted response to the election, and how it may reassess its cross-Strait policies given a third DPP president. The new composition of the Legislative Yuan, and the strategic position of the Taiwan People’s Party as gatekeeper. Observations from Kharis’s time in Taiwan during the election season, and the gift of Taiwan’s democratic process. Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epwlWDCCevY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How did the US Navy evolve over the first half of the 20th century from a bunch of unschooled violent sailors who couldn't shoot straight to the world's largest and most technologically advanced fighting force? What lessons around organizational design can we learn from this transformation? Trent Hone, author of Learning War and Mastering the Art of Command, joins to discuss. Outtro Music: A selection from Brahms' 3rd Symphony, apparently Adm. Nimitz's favorite https://open.spotify.com/track/3T9xcTbS2E3epbncsMwkNC?si=296e316488c841d5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How did Lai win, what does China think, and what’s at stake for the DPP? ChinaTalk editor Nicholas Welch reads his latest recap of the 2024 Taiwan elections: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/taiwan-election-results-how-lai-won Subscribe to the newsletter! https://www.chinatalk.media Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JV9ayVWYr8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Should AI be more open or closed? What does it mean to be open, anyway? And can France overtake China in AI?? Today I'm running a crossover episode with the Retort AI, hosted by AI Ethicist Tom Gilbert and Nathan Lambert who writes the fantastic https://www.interconnects.ai/ newsletter covering technological advancements in machine learning. Outtro Music: Bela Fleck et al, Bahar https://open.spotify.com/track/4D1ne3QFCBtUU2xFnoTir4?si=aeef1aefc6e047c6 Cover photo is a Midjourney a riff off of this very cool Derian portrait showing in the MET till Jan 21 https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/846896?pkgids=884 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

New year, new PilotTalk! Ben Smith, editor-in-chief of Semafor, joins Jordan and editor Irene to watch Chinese and Taiwanese TV shows. Ben’s favorite genre is crime and police dramas, and we cover the following new-ish releases: A Date With The Future 照亮你 (2023, mainland): Romance where a firefighter falls in love with a journalist! **Ordinary Greatness** 警察荣誉 (2022, mainland): Sitcom about a local police station. The World Between Us 我們與惡的距離 (2019, Taiwan): Acclaimed miniseries set in the aftermath of a mass shooting, addressing media sensationalism, treatment of the mentally ill, and the death penalty. Outtro music: Kiss Me by Taiwanese artist Karencici https://open.spotify.com/track/7HZmJLWtISxYnoBqwx04bw?si=896165f1b52a4aa0 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Margaret Palmieri is the Deputy Chief Digital Artificial Intelligence Officer. I had her on to dicusss: Innovation vs diffusion in the DoD context Data issues making her life difficult How CDAO sources and tests ideas for implementing AI into different corners of the kill chain Thanks to the Andrew Marshall Foundation and the Hudson Institute’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology for bringing you this episode. Outtro music: SCIENTISTS & ENGINEERS Andre 3k, Killer Mike, Future, Erykah Badu https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kU0SmxKucCw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jake Newby of the substack Concrete Avalanche with an end of year ChinaTalk takeover! Here's his accompanying year in review post https://jakenewby.substack.com/p/2023-in-review?utm_source=activity_item Tracklist: Intro: 'Lost in China' (excerpt) – Tation 天声 (self-released) This 'postmodernist rock band from Tibet' produced some of their best work to date on the remarkable Illusions of the New Era EP. ‘Wen’s Woozy Wrap’ – Pu Poo Platter (fRUITYSHOP) Key cut from Brooklyn-formed Chinese funk group’s debut LP. ‘Greedysleeper’ – A Wordless Orange 沉默橙 (Taihe) Young Wuhan group deliver soulful pop-rock on one of the year’s best albums. ‘Watch the Crown’ – BoomHan 包涵 (Seafood Market Records) A sample of the 17-year-old Changsha rap prodigy’s impressive flow, from his debut album Gravediggaz. ‘Umbrella’ (featuring J-Fever) – PO8 (Tildawn Music) Not a Rihanna cover. Chengdu rapper toys with Shanghai jazz sounds. ‘Rap’ – ZhiYu Xia 夏之禹 (Mintone Records) Sichuan-born rapper, dubbed ‘the Jia Zhangke of hip hop’, dissects how he fell in love with the genre. ‘Where’s Tommy?’ – Hualun 花伦 (bié Records) intriguing change of direction from the ambient soundtrack masters. ‘Specter’ – The Fallacy 疯医 (Modern Sky) Brilliant return to form from Henan post-punks enlivened by new recruit Li Zenghui, who also played sax with Black Midi earlier this year ‘Cliff’ – The river, Orchestration, Walkman! 河边走 (self-released) Short sharp burst of bewildering brassy brilliance from one of the best new bands to emerge in 2023. ‘Vanished Instant’ – A Fishy Tale 有话 (Qiii Snacks Records) Another young band with a psychedelic sound; recorded during a trip to a Zhejiang mountain village. ‘East Yunnan Hallucinations’ – Instinkto Industrio 本能事业 (Maybe Mars) Folksy rhythms mix with techno-dystopian lyrics on one of 2023’s most characterful records. ‘Standing in the Wind’ – Zhaoze 沼泽 (self-released) Guangdong guqin-driven post-rock outfit’s new album is one of their best. ‘Station 2020’ – Wu Zhuoling 吴卓玲 (self-released) The leading lady of alternative Chengdu music serves up an immersive ambient tune. ‘The Little Assassin Who Lives Beside the Sea Becomes and Environmentalist’ – Li Daiguo 李带菓 (Beihesan) The Dali-based artist had a productive year; this beautiful number was among the highlights. ‘Daididau’ (excerpt) – Mamer (Old Heaven Books) A too-short taste of a 7-minute long improvised piece on traditional Kazakh instrument the sherter from musical genius Mamer. ‘Four Seasons’ – Hugjiltu (self-released) An emotive folk number from an album featuring ‘collaborations’ with tapes of the Mongolian musician’s late father. ‘Harbour for Bias’ – Louzhang 楼长 (Jyugam) An alt-ambient highlight from a strong year for this offbeat Guangdong electronic label. ‘Snoring in the Valley’ – Howie Lee (self-released) Quirky electronic music from the renowned producer, quietly slipped out at the start of the year. ‘Solaris’ – Zhang Weiwei 张玮玮 (self-released) Chinese folk grandee swaps his accordion for a synth to interesting effect on his first album in over a decade. ‘I Want An Earth’ – Yu Su (pinchy&friends) Title track from the celebrated producer’s impressive EP of clever, beguiling electronic sounds. ‘Holes of Time’ – 33EMYBW (SVBKVLT) A typically idiosyncratic slice of avant club music from one of China’s leading producers. ‘The Forest That Hears’ – Laughing Ears (self-released) A welcome return from one of the country’s most interesting electronic music artists. ‘W.C.’ (Liars remix) – otay:onii (No Gold) Acclaimed artist Angus Andrew adds a new dimension to otay:onii’s weirdness after bié Records released her third LP in March. ‘Ἀντὶ θεῶν’ – Ὁπλίτης (self-released) Incredible one-man-band creating blistering metal tunes examining Chinese social issues. In Greek, obviously. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

80 episodes and 145 newsletters later, we've made it through my first year working on ChinaTalk full time. Editor Ryan Hauser hosts a review episode where we reflect on the past year, get into my production function, what I think the point of all of this is, and how I expect to evolve ChinaTalk in 2024. Please get in touch! I'm at [email protected] Here's my cause exploration essay: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/E2BghQq9pwPgtHgiH/war-between-the-us-and-china-a-case-study-for-epistemic Outtro music: Gurrumul, Bayini https://open.spotify.com/track/1XZ9HxC4MiMUUNQ7WKFucM?si=a40c4dfdd71c428e Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brad Setser, fellow at CFR who spent a year during the Biden Administration in USTR, joins ChinaTalk to discuss: China's long term growth trajectory and implications for national power Zambia debt negotiations and Argentina's dollarization When strategic trade policy can make sense Panda export controls Sign up here for international intrigue! https://www.internationalintrigue.io/?utm_source=chinatalk&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=1223 Kyla Scanlon of the https://kyla.substack.com/ newsletter cohosts. Outtro music: I Hear a Rhapsody, Bill Evans and Jim Hall https://open.spotify.com/track/2oEvw0AfrT2fPNpEnBwVml?si=cc9f1add64034de7 Midjourney image: a panda bald eagle combined mystical animal in the style of a traditional chinese painting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Xu of https://interconnect.substack.com/ and I run down our top five stories of the year in US-China tech. We get into: The eternal chip war The battle for AI model supremacy EV competition Venture investing in China PDD and Temu's rise TikTok's impressive resilience Here's ChinaTalk's attempt to benchmark Chinese models https://www.chinatalk.media/p/putting-chinas-top-llms-to-the-test Outtro music: two songs from my spotify wrapped which are kind of ancillary to crappy US-China relations? 2gether, Mura Masa and Gretel Ganlyn: https://open.spotify.com/track/1Wqd0R1X1tuVK9FySVyLpt?si=48a61ddf3f094b57 No Talk, Lowell: https://open.spotify.com/track/0ToOqwERQswtN1O7AveCU9?si=9424183956b74960 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Taiwanese populace will head to the polls to choose their next president on January 13, 2024 — and the three-party slate is set! To discuss, we brought on Lu Yeh-chung 盧業中 — a professor of diplomacy at National Chengchi University 國立政治大學 — and Lin Fei-fan 林飛帆, previously the Deputy-Secretary of the DPP and well-known for leading the Sunflower Student Movement in 2014. Our conversation gets into: What a three-party race means in a first-past-the-post electoral system, and how the pan-blue and pan-green camps are feeling; Why the KMT-TPP alliance broke down, and what the pan-blue side needs to do to mobilize its electorate; The KMT’s and DPP’s views on whether Taiwanese and mainland Chinese are part of the same family 兩岸一家人; What the 1992 Consensus means to the KMT and DPP, and the tensions and synergies between idealism and functionalism in Taiwanese politics; How the CCP views the upcoming election, and to what extent it really fears pro-independence activists in Taiwan; What demarcates the KMT and DPP outside of cross-Strait politics, and which domestic issues are most compelling for the average Taiwanese voter; And how the KMT and DPP balance government spending on hard military assets versus subsidizing critical technologies like semiconductors. DPP ticket: president: William Lai Ching-te 賴清德 vice president: Hsiao Bi-khim 蕭美琴 KMT ticket: president: Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 vice president: Jaw Shaw-kong 趙少康 TPP ticket: president: Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 vice president: Cynthia Wu Hsin-ying 吳欣盈 Outro music: 回春丹- 鲜花 https://open.spotify.com/track/35XxW360SO3puJQDfuaY4r Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This was a good episode. Mike Gallagher, Chair of the Select Committee on China, has some thoughtful thoughts! We get into: How he would fix Congress Why the early Cold War is still relevant today What he took away from his time in Iraq and the Eisenhower Archives Why all you should really do to understand China is listen to ChinaTalk and read our substack (at https://www.chinatalk.media/) My book rec: https://www.amazon.com/Men-Machines-Modern-Times-Press/dp/0262529319 Outtro music, Ella Fitzgerald, My Cousin in Milwaukee https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWy9XjHt324 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rohit Krishnan of Strange Loop Canon and I kibbitz about this weekend's OpenAI drama as well as the safety and US-China regulatory dynamics likely raised in the discussions with the board. Some content we discussed: Jade Leung PhD thesis: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:ea3c7cb8-2464-45f1-a47c-c7b568f27665 Jeff Ding and Jenny Xiao's piece: https://www.governance.ai/research-paper/recent-trends-chinas-llm-landscape The Foreign Affairs piece: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/illusion-chinas-ai-prowess-regulation Image made by my mother on DALLE to represent Altman getting fired for the family groupchat. Outtro music: Happy Survival https://open.spotify.com/track/5txZKim1ruceUUhDlU84yc?si=b0d183344163418d It'l All Be Over: https://open.spotify.com/track/1KFtR58Hn1nQ9fR0DRnC9n?si=512636c8caf24610 Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Matt Turpin, China NSC Director in the Trump administration currently at Hoover and Palantir, comes on to discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly of US-China relations coming out of APEC. We get into: Realistic expectations for bilateral US-China diplomacy What are the necessary ingredients for coherent and effective policymaking What Matt expects and worries about from a second Trump administration Why foundations and corporations should sponsor ChinaTalk! Outtro music: Time/Breathe Reprise https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uw1bJrFdCjY Virtual insanity: https://open.spotify.com/track/24SUWisv2lYQiB3bVpE1sn?si=cf1cf18c0bc94ef7 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Peter Harrell, who served as Biden's Senior Director for International Economics and Competitiveness on the NSC and NEC, comes on to discuss: Why things do or don't happen in the executive branch What reforms we might need to accelerate and amplify decision-making Lessons from the sanctions response to the war in Ukraine for China Check out our newsletter at https://www.chinatalk.media. James Brown--Bewildered https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iXlDeqSTRA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This interview was so good. Jason Matheny, Biden's former top tech + national security advisor, has recently reached one year as CEO of RAND. We had a truly classic ChinaTalk-style conversation, hitting on: How to design a world-class research organization The right and wrong lessons to learn from RAND's heyday in the 1950s Existential risks around AI and bio Government's capacity to grok and implement technology strategy What national security professionals can learn from art and architecture And a ton more. Thanks to Check out the Hudson Institute's defense research center here: https://www.hudson.org/policycenters/center-defense-concepts-technology Some 1950s vibes for our outtro music: Julie London: https://open.spotify.com/track/6crfO56bDm0RjpctUuGs5X?si=5a434079b24b4d03 Doris Day: https://open.spotify.com/track/20G1XJaTwIm2IuwA3Pjg1d?si=22095e2f9aa842cc Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Zvi Mowshowitz of Don't Worry about The Vase and Nathan Labenz of the Cognitive Revolution podcast come on for a quick recap of the past week's AI news! We get into: What AI diplomacy is looking like post-Bletchley Park What new applications OpenAI's latest announcements mean for future AI applications Outtro: Bizarrap with Milo J https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGWa-GO8mKg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Biden just dropped a 50 page executive order that's going to make the world safe for AI, hopefully? To discuss the sprawling EO we've brought on three CNAS analysts, Vivek Chilukuri, Bill Drexel and Tim Fist. We touch on: Immigration and federal hiring If AI + bio can ever be a safe thing What's going to happen to cloud access What are the hoops you'll need to jump through to train GPT5 and whether they're enough What to do about open source Why Jordan just wants to be an AI czar RSVP to the Los Angeles meetup! https://partiful.com/e/SgjdajUSrD1aEOOrVgXk Outro music (yea I was not going to impose Devo on you all): The B Tune by Bela Fleck https://open.spotify.com/track/6h6vvG1t4xtfP9lkOKzBTv?si=6ec3f32629bd46a2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Jordan Schneider interviews Markus Anderling and Anton Korinek, two of the coauthors of the paper 'Frontier AI Regulation: Managing Emerging Risks to Public Safety'. They discuss the need for regulation and oversight of advanced AI models, known as frontier models, that have the potential to pose significant risks to public safety and national security. Jordan came in as a skeptic. Will he be convinced? Here's the paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.03718 Here's Markus' song choice: - -- ・ -・・ ・ ・-・・ ・- https://open.spotify.com/album/1NogWso5ElfJe4n8qKSdy9?si=mD9j5WB3TWuFGVkJRBI_Jg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Defense Minister Li Shangfu just got officially purged. To discuss, we brought on Joel Wuthnow, a fellow at NDU. His research areas include Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, US-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. He joined ChinaTalk to discuss Xi Jinping’s recent purges of high-ranking members of the People’s Liberation Army, Xi’s larger vision for the PLA, and what all this internal turmoil might mean for China’s longer-term designs on Taiwan. This was recorded earlier in October. Key insights: Over ten years after coming to power, Xi is still purging corruption from the military, reflecting his continued lack of trust in the PLA; Corruption is historically endemic in the PLA in part because of its incentive structure, which makes graft a prerequisite for rising through the ranks; Xi’s efforts to break up the PLA’s supervisory apparatus have only been partially successful (they’re still the same people even if they’re in a different department); Amid the anti-corruption shakeup, China’s Rocket Force has been successfully developing hypersonic missiles, technology viewed as critical to countering US intervention in a regional conflict over Taiwan; Despite Xi’s apparent distrust of his inner circle of military advisors, an echo chamber–induced invasion of Taiwan is still a live possibility. Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow with the National Defense University. Nicholas Welch cohosts. Outtro Music: The Weeknd's take on Drake's Trust Issues https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVCV6hyv7ac Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jason Furman was Obama's CEA chair and a Harvard econ professor, while Kyla is the my favorite economics influencer. We get into: What the deal is with inflation How policymaking is broken and what we need to fix it How Homer would tackle SBF Why goodreads is such a trash website Outtro music: Chocolate Snow, Inflation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9E6F8xMjoA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Two rabbis on ChinaTalk? What am I even doing? Zohar Atkins of the wonderful Meditations with Zohar podcast alongside Ari Lamm of Bnai Zion come to discuss and process the aftermath of the Oct 7th attack. Outtro music: Ishay Ribo - Seder Ha'Avoda https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECy3CMxShIQ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

BIS just released its revision to the Oct 7 2022 restrictions. Jon of Asianometry, Dylan of Semianalysis, and Doug of Fabricated Knowledge join the pod to discuss why NVIDIA got screwed, why ASML may not have, and what these regs mean for the future of China and AI. Outtro music: Warren G Regulate remix https://soundcloud.com/dj-eric-rhodes/warren-wallen-mashup-final-edit Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Israel is a country dear to my heart and I wanted to provide the ChinaTalk audience with one more perspective on the events of this past weekend before returning to our regularly scheduled program. To that end, I'm running a guest episode from the Promised Podcast, a show from TLV1 which is "an inside view of how Israel can warm your heart and make your blood boil. It’s a show by a journalist, a professor and an NGO professional who live in and love Israel even though it drives them crazy, and who each week discuss the latest in Israeli politics, culture, and society." Thanks for listening. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We discuss their experience of the past few days, China's response, its broader policy and aspirations in the Middle East, and what comes next. Our first guest is Carice Witte who is the founder and director of the SIGNAL Group. Second in the episode is Ofir Dayan, a researcher at the Israel-China Policy Center at INSS. Outtro music: World Champion, sung by family members and victims of terrorism https://youtu.be/yofkk5Vaif8?si=JskMFXK3-srR5z8L Lyrics translation: I'm a world champion in repressing Anything that scares me, anything stressful, I put on mute I'm a world champion in loving Firstly myself, then at the stage and the street The hardest is to give it to someone close I'm a world champion in not being In not solving your problems Even the pictures on the walls I wasn't the one who hanged them I'm only in charge of the melodies I'm a world champion in falling And getting back up like a champ You'll see, like a phoenix I'm burning, but choosing every day to live on I'm a world champion in wanting At least trying You'll see, how in the end After the losses, the victory is so much sweeter I'm a world champion I'm a world champion in justifying Weaknesses and desires The urge is an old acquaintance I know every old trick it keeps in its bag But look, someday I'll be righteous Deep down what I have is not enough, at all I'm a little rat and life is a pipe1 Falling down the hole because I can't distinguish Between good and evil, and where does it all lead to You're being all usual But soon we'll run out of fuse I'm a world champion in falling And getting back up like a champ You'll see, like a phoenix I'm burning, but choosing every day to live on I'm a world champion in wanting At least trying You'll see, how in the end After the losses, the victory is so much sweeter I'm a world champion I'm a world champion in compensating Apologizing and pleasing Sinning, cleansing myself Exposing, covering up Say, how can one write songs with a thousand expectations Millions of views I'm a world champion in falling And getting back up like a champ You'll see, like a phoenix I'm burning, but choosing every day to live on I'm a world champion Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kurt Campbell is the Deputy Assistant to the President and the White House Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs. ChinaTalk recently joined Campbell in Washington to discuss US-China relations and mark the podcast’s 300th episode. We discuss: The nature of national power today; If China is peaking; How ideology impacts Beijing’s foreign policy; Campbell’s hopes and fears for the Biden administration’s Asia policy; Whether the US is still aiming to “maintain as large of a lead as possible” on chips and AI; How to think about the risk of and effectively deter military escalation; And the dark shadow of Tiananmen and its lasting impact on Chinese politics and US foreign policy. Outtro music: Brahms: Sonata in E flat major for Viola and Piano, Op. 120, No. 2 I. Allegro amabile https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYrC4rx5VrA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

James Wang, partner at Creative Ventures, joins to discuss: Huawei breakthrough implications and why NVIDIA's CUDA will make it particularly difficult to create a useful domestic AI chip Why China's AI companies have been underperforming my expectations How semiconductor industry dynamics parallel the challenges facing AI startups How pizza machines explain AI's future impact on the labor market Challenges and opportunities in investing in deep tech, including the eager but raw founder talent pool as well as the importance of market structure and distinguishing between R&D and engineering risk This show was brought to you by Creative Ventures. Creatives Ventures is at https://creativeventures.vc/ James writes at https://weightythoughts.com/ and tweets at @AJamesWang Outtro Music: the legendary Combination Pizza Hut and Taco Bell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Noah Smith of https://www.noahpinion.blog/ and Matt Klein of https://theovershoot.co/ join ChinaTalk to discuss: We get into: What's really happening with China's economy and why it matters strategically How China's potential peak parallels Japan's Why the world should and shouldn't be scared of China's progress in semis and EVs What another Trump Administration could do for US-China relations How Noah actually does his substack This was a fun one, I hope you enjoy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices