WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Offshore / US The unemployment rate edged up to 5.9% in June / US home prices rose by 14.6% in April, the largest gain in 30 year / S&P 500 closes green 7 days in a row, record is 8 days (US markets closed Monday) / RobinHood proposed listing ~ $40bn valuation / Didi Chuxing lists on NYSE, market cap $69bn & Chinese regulator blocks new accounts Local / Modest Q2 for JSE, TOP0 -1.2% (+11% YTD), Fini15 +6.8% in Q2 / SARB turned 100 last Wednesday / May saw another +R50billion trade surplus tax receipts / Invicta results / AdaptIT shareholders vote for 700c Volaris delisting offer / Etion results. The story is they selling LAWTrust business for R245million when the market cap of the entire company is R22million. CEO says plans to return value and delist

Simon Shares Level 4 lockdown. Remember the podcast of last week when I delved into the various leisure socks. Argent (JSE code: ART) results. Long a stock not worth covering or owning, but they've changed things up the last few years. Invicta (JSE code: IVT) another successful turnaround and really good results. JSE (JSE code: JSE) trading update, no surprise earnings under pressure. Nike (NYSE code: NKE) results absolutely crushed it last week. Revenue +96%. Anchor Capital published a note showing that the US had increased the number of US$ in circulation (M3) has gone up 33% over the course of the pandemic. Absa's Q2 2021 manufacturing survey shows very positive manufacturer confidence. EOH (JSE code: EOH) new board suing founder Asher Bohbot for R1.6billion. A US judge kicks out the Federal Trade Commission's (FTC) antitrust case against Facebook. It was requesting that Facebook sell their Whatsapp and Instagram businesses. They can bring the case back again, but the bigger issue is antitrust cases against big tech in the US and EU. SAB Zenzele Kabili (JSE code: SZK) has been coming down, now around R120. Still, double far value. Thungela Resources (JSE code: TGA) trading at almost 4000c. Coal may be dirty and coal may be dead in time. But so far it's been a great investment, but this is probably fair value. South African Reserve Bank (SARB) turned 100 years old on Wednesday 30 June. Euro Zone inflation slipped to 1.9% for June. Popia is live from today. SA recorded another trade surplus in May of R54.6billion. This is the 3rd month in a row that the surplus has been above R50billion. Watch ~ Rand, stronger for longer

Offshore / Gold a flat week after the previous weeks sell-off / S&P500 and Nasdaq back at all-time highs after the previous week's aggressive sell-off / Global shipping remains under severe pressure as Chinese port shut after a covid-19 outbreak / US gets an infrastructure bill, but maybe not. It's messy Local / Omnia results paid special dividend and SARS dispute / Growthpoint trading update / Old Mutual to spin off third of their Nedbank holding / May CPI 5.2% with core inflation at 3.1% / +50s can register for vaccines from Thursday / Absa's Q2 2021 Manufacturing Survey shows rising manufacturer confidence

Simon Shares The announcement by the president that business will be able to build up to 100 megawatts of power without constraints is huge. Aside from the fact that the current limit is 1 megawatt, it will have three direct impacts; Estimates are that at least 4,000 megawatts can be built in 18-24 months. That is level 4 load shedding. So bye-bye load shedding. Tens of billions in spend aiding the construction and allied industries. Savings when using your own power. Goldfields (JSE Code: GFI) is building a 40 megawatt supply for South Deep that they estimate will save them R120million a year. Annual consumer price inflation hit a 30-month high in May, rising to 5.2% from 4.4% in April. Core inflation 3.1% and at the bottom end of the range. Renergen* (JSE code: REN) has spooked the market as they announce a capital raise "raising the proceeds for the completion of the Phase 2 studies of the Virginia Gas Project". Details by the end of the week, but this isn't a massive surprise. Startup miners always need more cash, even for studies never mind the actual building of the facilities. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 24 June ~ JSE Power Hour: Rand ~ stronger for longer Deep dive hospitality stocks The third wave of the pandemic in South Africa is so are very much a Gauteng issue as it records higher daily new cases above the peaks from the first and second waves. This is no surprise to anybody. But what was notable is that lockdown restrictions remain very relaxed (albeit rumours that we'll see tougher restrictions soon). I had expected a harder lockdown for the third wave. Expecting a harder lockdown I was very cautious on local hospitality stocks. The Yoco small business turnover index shows activity at 78% of the levels pre-lockdown after hitting 128% at the end of May 2021. So even without harder lockdowns, we are being more cautious but this is still well ahead of the 40% odd we saw during the end of the second waves lockdown. We also have some Stats SA data on occupancy in tourist accommodation. Here we're back at around 30% for the end of April and that's back where we were before the second wave arrived. Hotels in South Africa recorded an occupancy rate of 26,8% in April 2021, up from 23,2% in March and 17,9% in February. Read more here: https://t.co/Pzft0bs8oi#StatsSA pic.twitter.com/rcjbJcUHdV — Stats SA (@StatsSA) June 21, 2021 Airports Company SA (ACSA) data shows domestic travel picking up to around 60% of pre-pandemic levels. International is at around 15%-20% and regional around 25%-30%. So in short this new wave is still early days and is hurting, but so far not as bad as I had feared (occupancy data is a month out of date). Certainly ahead of the third wave we were seeing improved tourist activity even if still below the pre-pandemic levels. So what stocks to look at? I am not rushing in, but they're on a watch list for when we're past this third (and hopefully final) wave. Spur (JSE code: SUR). Sit down dining hurts under lockdown and restaurants are the real spreader risk. But as we pass through this third wave and assuming no significant fourth wave (vaccines rates should be moving higher by then) Spur looks good. Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) I like their takeaway as it's more resilient than sit down. But they still have debt issues that will take another two years to fix. So speculative. City Lodge (JSE code: CLH). Their break-even occupancy is around 35% which is a little below the Stats SA data, but that was for tourist data, City Lodge has mostly been business travel. So they need more improvements to start a profit. They also have the sale of East African assets, which if it happens will be a boost. Of course, if that is cancelled, that'll be bad news. Tsogo Sun Gaming (JSE code: TSG) has been running and here consumer spare cash and the third wave are a threat to that run so I'd stay away for now. Tsogo Sun Hotels (JSE code: TGO) has also been running and again I'm not convinced the market is totally right on this one. Sun International (JSE code: SUI) ran hard but then has come under pressure and looks interesting on more weakness.

Offshore / Markets spooked by FOMC statement / Gold under pressure / Brent crude slips but holding above $70 / TikTok owner ByteDance reports $2.1bn loss / Krispy Kreme returning to market with IPO / Adobe results Local / Rand under pressure / Capitec expects half-year earnings to rise 292% / Sephaku update and PPC results / Mediclinic to produce own power / Alexander Forbes results, retrenchments almost back to 'normal' levels / Stricter lockdown

Simon Shares SAB Zenzele Kabili trading at R180, at least 3x fair value? Local GDP for the first quarter was 1.1% QoQ. Kinda middling. Stor-Age* (JSE code: SSS) results. Thungela Resources (JSE code: TGA) lists. AdaptIT (JSE code: ADI) gets an improved offer from Volaris - 700c. Life Healthcare (JSE code: LHC) bouncing again because of the Alzheimer drug. But it a very long road. Sirius Real Estate (JSE code: SRE) results were excellent. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 24 June ~ JSE Power Hour: Rand ~ stronger for longer Options, futures and CFDs Options (warrants on the JSE) Complicated Risk is only 100%. Right to buy or sell. Not much offered in SA. Long or short, depending on if call or put. Can trade on Safex, but institutional size trades only. Futures Exchange-traded Equity, indices, commodities, currencies & agriculture. Long or short. Interest charge and dividends built into the price. Require a Safex broker. You can lose more than you started with. Contract for Difference (CFDs) Over the counter (OTC) traded. Counterparty risk. Issued on anything. Long or short. Interest paid/earned daily. No expiry. You can lose more than you started with.

Offshore / U.S. economy added 559K jobs in May and unemployment fell to 5.8% / G7 nations set the minimum global corporate tax rate at 15% / AMC issues shares above the current share price / Biden expands blacklist to 59 Chinese companies / Apple staff back to work 3 days a week, starting September Local / Volaris ups offer to AdaptIT to 700c / Sibayne Stillwater to buy back 5% of shares / SARB selling their stake in African Bank / Famous Brands results / Prosus to buy Stack Overflow of US$1.8billion / Mark Barnes sells up to half his Purple Group shares

Simon Shares Sibanye Stillwater* (JSE code: SSW) announced they'll buy back 5% of their shares. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) exits Nigeria. AdaptIT (JSE code: ADI) gets an upgraded offer from Huge (JSE code: HUG) but still likes the 650c cash from Volaris, even as that is below the independent board's fair value of 700c - 909c. Barloworld (JSE code: BAW) completes R1billion sale of motor retail unit and will also, in time, sell its Avis car rental and leasing business. Brent oil is above US$70 for the first time since early 2019. OPEC+ says it will maintain its policy of gradually increasing supply. A very strong trading update from Standard Bank (JSE code: SBK). Banks locally have risks, but look cheap, I have a position in the Satrix Fini ETF* JSE code: STXFIN).* I hold ungeared positions. [caption id="attachment_29849" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Fini15 ~ weekly[/caption] A new ETF to rule them all Manage your money like a rock star Upcoming events; 24 June ~ JSE Power Hour: Why the Rand will be stronger for longer

Simon Shares Somebody buying Metrofile (JSE code: MFL). Started late on Tuesday, sending it almost 13% on the day and holding Wednesday. Mediclinic (JSE code: MEI) paid £432m for 29.9% of Spire Healthcare (LSE code: SPI) in 2015. They're now supporting a buyout from a third party valuing that stake at £287.8m. Healthcare stocks earnings remain under pressure as elective surgery remains limited. Afrimat (JSE code: AFT) to acquire R650m manganese mining rights. Gold above US$1,900 and even with Rand strength (currently 13.85) we're finally seeing gold in ZAR moving a little higher. No change to the repo rate at last weeks MPC meeting. All the excitement was that the next move will be up, but we knew that. Of more interest is that the govoner talks bout 4.5% rather than the 3%-6% range. He always has but it seems MPC will based rate decisions on that 4.5%. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 27 May ~ JSE Power Hour: Manage your money like a rock star! 01 June ~ ThinkMarkets: Key points to investing 24 June ~ JSE Power Hour: Rand ~ stronger for longer Sygnia iTrix 4th Industrial Revolution ETF Cache This: Smartphones on a budget ~ Nafisa Akabor SAB Zenzele Kabili Listing on the BEE board of the JSE on 28 May. No IPO process ahead of that. R40 listing price. But trades subject to supply / demand. I would expect it to boom initially then settle around R40. No lock-in period, so you can buy / sell as you wish. This is very much a long-term investment. Will be ownership of global AB Inbev (JSE code: ANH) shares worth R5.4billion. AB Inbev market cap is around R1.8trillion. So a small slice of the entire group of less than 1%. Important, you are not just getting SAB, it is the entire global group. There is debt included, geared about 55% at 70% of prime payable over ten years. Another reason to view it as long-term. 75% of dividends will be used to settle the debt. This is a long-term investment option and NOT a get rich quick scheme. We have also seen some BEE schemes fail spectacularly. Not all stockbrokers are enabling trading in the shares. SAB have a trading desk, call them on 0861 900 903. Only BEE qualifying investors can buy the shares.

Simon Shares Santova (JSE code: SNV) were very solid and they are now truly a global logistics business. Distell (JSE code: DGH) announced that Heineken wants a 'majority' stake in the company. Details are scant with major shareholders being PIC and Remgro (JSE code: REM) both just over 31%. But does the majority mean they want the cider business or +50% of the shares which would trigger a mandatory offer to minorities? This of course after Heineken threatened to take their beer and go home last year during the alcohol ban. hmmm, wasn't it just last year Heineken was hating on us so much they was canceling projects and threatening to take their beer and go home .. — Simon Brown (@SimonPB) May 18, 2021 Balwin (JSE code: BWN) & Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) results both showed a tough year. But I like this space. Calgro offering its units at the R500k price point (R4,000 monthly bond costs) while Balwin starts at a little under R1million to around R2million. So different markets. Redefine (JSE code: RDF) results saw loan-to-value (LTV) improving but what struck me is that they value properties twice a year. Most doing it over a rolling three years. Local CPI hit a 14-month high in April, mainly driven by rising transport and food prices. The rate was 4.4%, up from 3.2% in March. Thursday is the MPC rate decision, no change expected. Eurozone April CPI +0.6% on Month, +1.6% on Year. Core CPI +0.5% on Month; +0.7% on Year Crypto crashing, entire crypto market cap is off 20% today on news China is cracking down (again). * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 27 May ~ JSE Power Hour: Manage your money like a rock star! jjjjj What's with the 'special' shares? Special shares usually with high voting rights and often with limited or zero economic rights. They enable insiders to retain voting control even while they may not actually control the company. The most well known are the Naspers~N (JSE code: NPN) A shares that give control to a few parties. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) has the same for Christo Wiese which he tried to sell back to the company. But they have zero economic rights and only are votable by Wiese More recently it surprised many that while Remgro (JSE code: REM) owns a little over 31% of Distell (JSE code: DGH) they ave a pile of B shares that gives them 56% voting control. In the older days, companies used pyramid structures, but those have long since largely left the JSE and no new ones can be listed. The challenge is how to know about them? The annual report will detail them. Generally, they don't matter massively, until they do. And then they matter. Wiese failed to receive the required number of votes to get back onto the Shoprite board in 2018, but then he used his special shares to basically override shareholders. Subscribe to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / US inflation / Disney results / US pipeline shut down due to ransomware attack / UK rejects (softly) Bidens plan for global corporate tax rate / Chinese industrial production and retail sales due Monday Local / Naspers / Prosus share swap / Raubex results / Ascendis swaps debt for assets / Clicks buys Pick n Pay pharamacy business / Cape Town airport has best month since lockdown, still 40% down from 2019 / Long4Life results and NAV discount

Simon Shares Raubex (JSE code: RBX) results saw the second half record HEPS of some 110c after a loss in the first half. The previous full-year, 2020, HEPS was only 161.7c, so the business is looking good. That said, lots of debt and the expanding order book needs to be converted into profit. Transaction Capital (JSE code: TCP) results see the dividend returning. A super-strong trading update from Lewis (JSE code: LEW) with HEPS more than doubling. At the time of their interim results, they paid a dividend of 133c when the stock was around 2400c. If they can do a 250c dividend (should be easy?) the forward dividend yield sits at around 8%. US inflation data spooked higher than expected, even considering the April base effect. April Consumer Prices +4.2% and Core CPI +3%, highest since 2009. Used cars (stimulus cheques?) were +10% and made up a third of the core CPI increase. Fed will do nothing. Ascendis (JSE code: ASC) has announced they've reached a deal with debt holders. Basically, they're swapping the crown jewels (Remedica) for their large debt pile. The debt cost was R280million for the last six month period ending December and this will improve solvency and keep Ascendis alive. But are the remaining assets attractive enough for investors? Upcoming events; 27 May ~ JSE Power Hour: Manage your money like a rockstar Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes More Naspers shuffles Naspers (JSE code: NPN) and Prosus (JSE code: PRX) have announced another deal to try and close the discount between themselves and their holding in Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700). Prosus will acquire up to 45.4% of Naspers shares via a share swap whereby holders of Naspers can get 2.27 new Prosus shares for every one Naspers share. This will increase Prosus liquidity (in theory) and markedly reduce Naspers weighting in the Top40 and Swix indices. The latter argument makes sense and is likely a part of the reason for the discount that Naspers experiences. The problem is that with the weighting above 20% most funds are not allowed to hold over a certain percentage (lower than the Naspers weighting), so they can not go overweight, or even match index weight, for Naspers and this reduces potential buyers of the stock. Will it work? Maybe. They have tried many other tricks, unbundling Prosus and earlier MultiChoice (JSE code: MCG) and that hasn't worked. But the weighing in the indices is a real problem. Of course, the very easy fix here is to simple unbundle the Tencent holding - but that's not going to happen any time (aside from some sales every three years as we saw recently). JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / US jobless claims below 500k, lowest since pandemic started. But overall employment slips to 6.1%, up from 6% in March. / Janet Yellen says rates will need to rise / ECB Official Calls for Accepting Inflation Overshoot / Saudi Aramco Q1 profits +30% / Gold +$1,800 Local / Moodys skips reviewing SA credit rating / MTN update / Sibanye Stillwater update / Kaap Agri results / Karooooo results / Anglo American gets coal demerger shareholder approval

Simon Shares Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) now has 1million clients across all platform. A wowzer number. What an incredible milestone achieved today. Across all platforms & partners we've reached 1 million registrations. @CapitecBankSA @SATRIX_SA @BidvestBankSA @EasyEquities hard to describe how grateful I am to all you #invstr legends that challenge us to rise each day. 🙏🙏🙏 — Charles H Savage (@CharlesHSavage) May 5, 2021 Combined Motor Holdings (JSE code: CMH) full year results. Second half saw decent cash flow, back to profit and dividends. Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) are cancelling 4.18628% of their treasury shares. MTN (JSE code: MTN) first-quarter update, good numbers with group EBITDA +21.3%. Forward PE of around 11x is decent as it's being priced as a utility, albeit was even better back at 6000c when forward PE was c8x. Revego (JSE code: RVG) cancelled the listing. Tax Tuesday: Tax obligations for global citizens * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 06 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Finding income in JSE listings Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes PGMs Flying, miners not so much Palladium above US$3,000 (all-time high) [caption id="attachment_26363" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Palladium weekly chart[/caption] Platinum above US$1,200 (six-year high) [caption id="attachment_26365" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Platinum weekly chart[/caption] Rhodium above US$29,000 (all-time high) PGMs are considered a 'green' metal in that they help reduce CO2 emissions. Demand remains above supply. But production will increase. Scrap is increasing (especially with iron ore at records) Rand is strengthening and will likely continue to do so But the listed miners are languishing nowhere, why? ===== JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / April a green month for US indices / Palladium almost $3k and copper almost $10k / Knock out results; Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet & Amazon / US Q1 GDP +6.4% / Biden 100 days Local / Resi10 the main local index green in April (midCap & Property did well) / Gilbertson quits Gemfields / Tongaat update, just misses debt reduction targets / Steinhoff to list Pepco in Warsaw / Astral update / AdaptIT needs another week to decide on the two offers

Simon Shares Revego* (JSE code: RVG) was supposed to list today but has delayed their listing. I applied for allocation as I like the business model of renewable energy with guaranteed inflation-linked off-take agreements. They invest into operational renewable asset and are targeting a 8%-10% dividend yield, based off the 1000c listing price. * I hold ungeared positions. Total world ETF from CoreShares Cache This: Gadget insurance Upcoming events; 06 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Finding income in JSE listings Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes JSE protections With the Revego listing delayed the money I put into the book build last Thursday has not been seen since. The company was supposed to issue a SENS on Monday and list on Thursday, but we heard nothing until Thursday morning. It has been delayed by a few days. What struck me was that I was not worried about the chunk of money that I had put into the book build and which I have not see or heard from in a week now. The reason for my lack of concern is the protections the JSE exchange offers. Extra regulation around the companies act. Stockbroker regulations. Investor fund. FSP insurance. This of course does not stop crookery from executive teams nor does it stop businesses from going bust. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares South African inflation was 3.2% in March 2021. Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results show it was all liquor and tobacco that was the pain as it was off 31%. Karooooo (JSE code: KRO) has returned after exiting as Cartrack. The market seemed confused as it opened at 6500c, it is now trading R480. Still well off the adjusted highs f over R900 as everybody got all excited about the Nasdaq listing. Long4Life (JSE code: L4L) hints at possible unbundling as it looks to unlock shareholder value. I'm confused, they were just consolidating by buying up businesses? I held them but sold early in the pandemic as they were so small in my portfolio and weren't doing much with their cash. Absa (JSE code: ABG) loses their CEO. Cell C reports R5.5billion full-year loss. Horror story and I never understood what Blue Label (JSE code: BLU) saw in the business. PSG results without Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) and they're buying back their preference shares. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 22 April ~ Introducing the CoreShares Total World ETF 06 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Finding income in JSE listings Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / Coinbase lists / China Q1 GDP 18.3% / Reports Jack Ma will divest from Ant Group / Gold looking strong, but miners lagging (Rand strength?) / Just more than half of U.S. adults have gotten at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose ~ CDC Local / Rand strength / Karoooo lists on Wednesday / Capitec results / EOH looking better / Sasol goes green / Local CPI later this week

Simon Shares New Global ESG ETF from Sygnia. Anglo American (JSE code: AGL) to list their coal assets, Thungela Resources. Comair has finally been delisting from the JSE and shareholders will receive 4.26c per share. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 15 April ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Capitec and Purple Group (EasyEquities) results Two stocks that I own; Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) and Capitec* (JSE code: CPI). Both with really good results and I'll go into the numbers in detail. Capitec monthly chart since listing Purple Group monthly chart since listing JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / New highs for S&P500 & Nasdaq / Yellen wants global minimum corporate tax rate / Semi conducter chip shortage continues to hurt production / China slaps Alibaba with $2.8 billion fine in anti-monopoly probe / Goolge pushes back on WFT, wants staff back in the office from September Local / Prosus sells another 2% of Tencent / Purple results / IMF says local GDP 3.1% in 2021 and 2% in 2022 / Anglo exits SA coal by setting up a new JSE-listed miner / 650c Cash offer for AdaptIT / Pick n Pay update

Simon Shares Prosus (JSE code: PRX) selling another 2% of Tencent. Purple* (JSE code PPE) trading update for six months ending February. HEPS of about 0.85c. They did 1.54c HEPS for full-year ending August after a loss in the first half last year. So this period showing slower growth. Growthpoint (JSE code: GRT) announced that their healthcare fund tops R3.2bn with Cintocare Hospital acquisition. The JSE is investigating PPC (JSE code: PPC) trades amid insider trading suspicions as the share moved ahead of the announcement last week. The IMF now says SA's economy will grow faster at 3.1% in 2021 and 2% in 2022, but it will take over two years to recover from the 7% collapse we saw last year. Janet Yellen wants all countries to have a minimum corporate tax rate. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 15 April ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Selling to early This is a problem for both traders and investors. Part of the problem is the thrill of a winner, we've made money and we want to lock in that profit so the thrill doesn't go away, and we sell - but we sell way early. The bigger issue is what are you trying to achieve? As always know your strategy and know why you entered a position. Be real about taking profits, that is why we're in the market. But balance that with giving winners space to win even more. Analysis of previous winners you exited early. Why did you do exit and what could you have done to stay in longer? What about some you exited at the right profit point? JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares PPC (JSE code: PPC) have made a deal with their DRC lenders. They potentially owed US$175million but now are only on the hook for US$16.5million. This stock was 60c in November and is now around 240c. Renergen* (JSE code: REN) says helium concentration is +3%. But reference the US has the current best concentration level at 0.35%. Sabvest (JSE code: SBP) results show a discount to net asset value (NAV) of some 50%. Add to this PSG (JSE code: PSG), Remgro (JSE code: REM), Naspers (JSE code; NPN) and Prosus (JSE code: PRX) discounts all in the order of 40% or more. The market is clearly hating on holding companies? Back in the day, a 30% discount was a lot, 15% about the average, and at times PSG has been at a premium to NAV. Ever Given is free, but shipping rates remain elevated as they were before Ever Given got stuck. MPC no change to rates, but changes to Q1 GDP and the vote. Goldman analysts say go long on Russia, South Africa stocks. Bank of America Securities conference on investing in SA had record offshore attendance with Clicks (JSE code: CLS) and Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) topping the list of interest. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 15 April ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / S&P500 closes at all-time high, Nasdaq still 6% off highs / US Personal Spending fell 1.0% in February, slightly more than expected, but January spending was revised upward by a full percentage point to 3.4%. / Ever Given remains stuck in Suez Canal / Intel to build new silicon chip fab plants for $20bn / Tencent results / WeWork to go public, via a Spac, with $9bn valuation Local / CPI 2.9% for Feb and MPC no change / Magda Wierzycka quits as Sygnia CEO / AdvTech results / Old Mutual results / Remgro results overshadowed by 40% discount to NAV / Goldman analysts say go long on Russia, South Africa stocks

Simon Shares AdvTech* (JSE code: ADH) solid results in a tough market. Vivo Energy (JSE code: VVO) issued an update on Moroccan industry review and seems it's back to square one. Resilient (JSE code: RES) results not the horror show expected. Aveng (JSE code: AEG) wants to do another rights issue, again at 1.5c and raise R100m. Tencent solid results. Ever Given gets stuck in the Suez Canal. February local CPI at 2.9%. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 15 April ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Why all the panic? A small rise in US ten-year treasury yields and a little inflation and suddenly it is the end fo the world for markets. Inflation is likely to move higher in the US as the stimulus money gets spent. This is different from the stimulus after 2008/9, which went to banks who hoarded it and stuck it into markets. This time money goes directly to consumers who'll send the money. But the Federal Reserve is happy that structural inflation is not returning and a little inflation in the system isn't the end of the world. But to listen to many experts here comes hyperinflation and the end of the world as high inflation = high rates and as such money moves into income funds rather than equity. Further if one digs into Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) government spending is not the end of the world, certainly for the US government. Here's a fun one, to deal with inflation, raise taxes? In fact have an automatic process that removes congress, if inflation heads above say 3%, taxes go up 4%. Above 5% taxes increase 8% and so on. But back to the panic, stop. Markets never go in a straight line and suddenly getting all bearish because of some selling is going to make sleeping ever again impossible. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) delivered really strong results for the six months ending December. Shoprite daily chart[/caption]Purple* (JSE code: PPE) is up some 20% in the last ten days. A buyer has arrived and thanks to low liquidity they're moving the price. Good update from AdVTech* (JSE code: ADH) and results fro Stadio (JSE code: SDO) while Curro (JSE code: COH) was modest. Seems tertiary education was the winner and schools are under pressure but longer-term a sector I like. Astral (JSE code: ARL) update. TSA travel numbers are hitting their highest levels since lockdown started. Still only about half what they were before lockdown but the US is vaccinating and opening up. This while Europe looks to be starting the third wave and locally nobody will give/sell us any vaccines. So globally this re-opening is going to be very lumpy with the US and UK seemingly winners in the vaccine front (ironic after they were losers on the pandemic front). Sun International (JSE code: SUI) nothing to write home about. Lots of chatter about the re-opening trade with City Lodge (JSE code: CLH) up about a third in March. But with at least one more (and maybe even two more) Covid-19 surges and resultant lockdown restrictions I am staying cautious for now. The March 16-17 FOMC statement comes out between my recording and you listening. No rate change so it's all about the language. Even in the face of a strong economy are they still prepared to do whatever it takes and leave rates low into 2023? * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 15 April ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Small caps for the win MidCap index is up about 10% so far in 2021, nice and pretty much exactly what thee Top40 has done. Of course, the Resi10 has done almost 20%, but the winner, small caps up some 20%. The property index has returned single digits in 2021 so far, but technically it is looking ready to break higher. We also now have all the large bank results and they were okay. The index is up some 5% and looking tired. There is value here but not sure there is any need to rush. Property index, daily chart[/caption] JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / $1.9trillion stimulus bill signed by Biden and on route / Tencent on notice as China cracks down on fintech players / The tech-heavy Nasdaq has underperformed the Dow for four straight weeks — a first since 2016 / Friday 1,357,111 people were screened at U.S. airports, marking the highest number of travellers since the pandemic began. / U.S. 10 Year Treasury hits 1.625 / Huawei listed anew as a threat to US national security Local / GDP for 2020 -7% / SA records first annual surplus in 2020 (last was 2002) / Woolies sells Elizabeth Street Property / MTN results (dividend cancelled) and Ambition 2025 / AfroCentric results / Aspen results see more debt slashed

Simon Shares Ascendis (JSE code: ASC) lenders are flexing their muscle. Back in February L1 Health, Blantyre bought enough debt to be able to block any asset sales and with over R7billion in debt Ascendis desperately needs to sell their European crown jewels. There is now a forbearance agreement in place until the end of April by when the company needs to have sorted out their debt. A rights issue is not an option at current prices so a debt for asset swap with the lenders? This will maybe resolve the debt issue, but then what does that leave Ascendis? Renergen* (JSE code: REN) find a bunch more gas they did not expect to find. Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Growthpoint (JSE code: GRT) office vacancies at 18%. Lots of concern about malls as we're over traded and online shopping. The latter is a very long-term issue, the former will see some die. But office is the real concern. Solid AfroCentric (JSE code: ACT) results. Everybody (well many) love Discovery* (JSE code: DSY) yet here is a pure health stock with great potential, cheap valuation and they consider NHI to actually be something that would further benefit the company. Very good Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) results. Debt is going faster than expected, business is solid and the anon bidder has exited the building leaving only the one stuck in Australia. They should be able to easily do 30c HEPS for the full year putting then on a forward PE of under 10x. This set of results they only paid out half of HEPS as a dividend, but this should increase from next financial year as debt becomes way smaller. MTN (JSE code: MTN) finally pricing as a utility. * I hold ungeared positions. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / NFP added 379k jobs (large beat) and US unemployment 6.2% (at this pace it'll take until April 2023 to get back to where we were in February 2020) / $1.9trillion stimulus bill approved by Senate / China sets 6% 2021 GDP target / Germany charges Steinhoff execs / UK taxes going up to highest in 50 years / Nasdaq is red year-to-date Local / One year of Covid, ZAR 40c weaker, Top40 +20% (both from Jan20 levels) / Harmony out of Top40 and Resi10, replaced by Glencore / Rhodes Food update "..sales started recovering in January and February 2021…" after TigerBrands said January was poor? / Firstrand results / Spur results / Treasury expected to be another R30billion ahead on tax collections

Simon Shares A great research report on Blue Gem covering Renergen (JSE code: REN). What I really like about the report is that Keith shows you all his workings so you can make your own call on his working and decide. Spur (JSE code: SUR) were a horror show, no surprise it was the six months to end December with all the various lockdown levels. Two things struck me. They're positioning themselves well for the post-pandemic dining life, dark kitchens, exploring drive-through were feasible. But the biggie was how the company has changed in the last decade or so. It used to be Spur with a little pizza and sushi. But it really is now a collection of brands across different eating experiences and price points. My concern in the short term is a third and fourth wave. We can see as lockdown and alcohol bans get stricter their traffic decreases markedly and I am pretty sure that the rest of 2021 will see at least another two waves of the pandemic with the resulting harder lockdowns. Two awesome points from Nerina Visser in an interview I did with her yesterday on MoneywebNOW. Firstly she comments about the saving of dividend tax within a tax-free account. I have run the numbers and over a very long-term that saving is actually more than what one saves on capital gains tax. Secondly, what if you don't have the R36k lump sum to invest? Well, do you have some discretionary ETFs? If yes, sell them, move them into your tax-free account and then continue buying the ETF outside of the tax-free every month for the rest of the year. You get the tax-free benefit from day one. Upcoming events; Weekly, Wednesday at 5.30pm ~ Follow the Trader 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes It's a bull market [caption id="attachment_24772" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Top40 weekly chart[/caption] I was chatting with some friends from around the world about markets. I say it's a bull market, especially locally. They all had a dozen different, and solid, reasons why I was wrong. But they miss one very important point - price. The simple truth is that markets the world over are at all-time highs and heading higher. We can kick and scream all we want, but price is the truth and the price is heading higher. Deciding that it is all crazy and heading to cash, or worse taking short positions is a fool's game. Sure one day the market will peak and somebody will have that Tweet where they called it. But that's not because they're super smart, but because if you call something often enough eventually you'll be right. Bull markets never feel 100% comfortable, that's the nature of the best. There is always a reason to be sceptical, that's the nature of the beast. But stop stressing and enjoy the ride, that's what bulls are for. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / US Durable Goods Orders Surge In January To Pre-COVID Highs / FB to pay Australian media / Latest Warren Buffet letter / Warren Buffett's $10 billion mistake: Precision Castparts / House passes $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill, sends it to Senate / Opec+ meets on Thursday Local / Budget / Sasol results (no rights issue) / TymeBank gets R1.6bn / Goldfields gets go-ahead to build 40MW solar plant at South Deep Mine / Implats results and dividend / Woolies results

Budget 2021 with AJM Tax I was again invited to moderate the AJM Tax post-budget panel with three excellent guests; Pieter Janse van Rensburg – AJM Tax Daniel Silke - Political Futures Consulting Adriaan Giessing – Seed Investments You can download the AJM Rax budget highlight booklet here. Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Upcoming events; Weekly, Wednesday at 5.30pm ~ Follow the Trader 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / Australia fight with Google and Facebook / Uber loses appeal in UK, drivers are workers not independent contractors / Former Bank of England Governor Carney joins board of digital payments company Stripe / US return to Paris Agreement / US jobless claims up to four-week high / Gold under pressure as it trades at lowest levels since June Local / Sibanye Stillwater results / Truworths results / BHP results and monster dividend / Rand at 14.50 / Two interesting update titbits; Tigerbrands worried about January sales and Dis-Chem sees connivance malls much better than malls, but malls returning to normal. / Value Group delisting

Simon Shares Interesting titbit from TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) update "It is too early to conclude whether the lower consumer demand levels evident in the month of January reflect an even more challenging environment than what was experienced over the past year." Upcoming events; Weekly, Wednesday at 5.30pm ~ Follow the Trader 18 February ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes BHP* (JSE code: BHP) results were good, the cash flow was excellent with the dividend up 55% and payout ratio 85%. This is the benefit of commodity prices at higher levels but also due to low debt levels an almost zero capex requirements from most commodity miners. This raises three questions; Are we in a commodity supercycle? I think not, sure prices are at best levels in about five years. But that's off a low base rather than a super cycle. sure demand has picked up and global infrastructure spend is rising in response to the pandemic. But we don't have China growing at almost 10% a year sucking in almost all of the world's commodities as we did back in the early 2000s. Last time we ha a commodity supercycle it died the day after a global bank did a 100-page report on how it would last another decade. Will commodity prices go higher? They can but mostly I think they won't. Platinum could hit US$2,000 but for the rest our best bet is they stay around current levels. Oil, who knows. Will the frackers return in mass with higher prices? Demand will certainly continue to increase as we get out of the pandemic, but how long can Opec+ keep their collective foot on the production brake pedal? I think not long as they'll need the money. How long will it last? The elevated prices can probably last 3-5 years at best and this will see cash flows at high levels, especially as debt gets paid own. But the miners need to find new mines to mine or they run out of product to sell (as we're seeing with Pan African Resources* (JSE code: PAN) and their new mines / operations. So at some point, we'll start seeing green and brownfield capex projects coming back and that'll need some cash so dividends will start to drop. My big fear is mega deals. These always destroy value albeit the miners look at them as an easy way to increased supply for themselves. If a stock I hold gets an offer, I'll take the money and run. If a stock I own makes an offer, I'll take the money and run. * I hold ungeared positions. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / Disney results all about Disney+ / Tesla puts $1.5billion into Bitcoin / Janet Yellen warns of 'explosion of risk' from cryptocurrency markets / Bumble IPO with 60% gain on the first day / Platinum above $1,200 for first tine in six years / Freeze Sends Gas Soaring to $600 Local / More small-cap updates surprise to upside; Trellidor & Metrofile / Itatile results / ARB Holdings results, solid cash generation / Rand turned sixty yesterday / Cartrack coming back to earth after hitting 9000c / Steinhoff maybe resolving their legal woes / SARS collections ahead by R100billion

Simon Shares Bitcoin* hits US$48,000 as Tesla declares they put US$1.5billion into the crypto. Platinum finally on the move and above US$1,200 for the first time since 2015. [caption id="attachment_24687" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Platinum weekly chart[/caption] Sibanye Stillwater* (JSE code: SSW) best illustrates the boom in mining profits. In 2019 they made R62million now 2020 they expect almost R30billion and over 1000c HEPS. Could we see a 500c dividend? Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) very solid update and the stock has recovered from their 2019 wobble. There is still two potential buyers, one stuck in Australia, truthfully, I would rather they remain potential and I will hold the stock. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; Weekly on Wednesday ~ Follow the Trader 18 February ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Should I sell the bounce? Depends why you bought the stock. A long-term investment? No, then you keep it and focus on fundamentals rather than price. A quick trade to make a few bucks. Then absolutely sell the bounce, you won't get the top price (well maybe you'll get lucky) and as we saw with Telkom (JSE code: TKG) the bounce just keeps on bouncing. So watch and wait and sell on weakness after the bounce That may be immediate or may take a few days or a week. Waiting for the weakness is a skill you'll learn, slowly over time. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / Nasdaq & S&P500 close Friday at all-time highs / Alphabet & Amazon results / US unemployment drops to 6.% / Jeff Bezos to step up to the executive chair, no longer CEO / Chinese short video company Kuaishou rose nearly 200% at the open on its debut in Hong Kong. Local / Ford investment of R15.8-billion into SA / Updates; Distell & Motus / Level 3 lite / Sibanye Stillwater update, R62million profit to almost R30billion / Load shedding

Simon Shares GameStop closed at US$90 on Tuesday. Jeff Bezos to step down as Amazon CEO. Apple knockout results. Ford to spend R15.8billion on local plant upgrade. Upcoming events; Weekly (Wednesday at 5.30pm) ~ Follow the Trader 18 February ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Booming SA Inc. consumers? We're seeing decent updates from local retailers so far this year, which is odd. Now let's be clear, decent not knock it out the park. Distell (JSE code: DGH) lost 41 days of sales in the second half of 2020 yet expects HEPS to be + 8.6% - +13.6%. Motus (JSE code: MTH) expect HEPS to be 0% - 5% higher, sent the stock up some 20% in two days. A few possible reasons; Lockdown so we have money to spend Working from home saving on transport Social grants increased 36One calculate some R100bn extra from social grants but also people taking money out of pension schemes & retrenchment packages. The risk here is that this is temporary, which is certainly the 36One fear. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / GameStop / Results; Apple & Tesla / Tencent listing Kuaishou (TikTok competitor) this week / US 4th quarter GDP at 4% / Davos online Local / IMF downgrades SA GDP 2021/2 growth forecast / Huge offers script to buyout AdaptIT / Anglo stable of updates (AGL, AMS & KIO) / Clicks update and closing Musica / Solid Sasol update / Johnson & Johnson vaccine, Aspen to produce 300m a year

Upcoming events; 18 February ~ JSE Power Hour: ETFs and tax-free investing GameStop perfect craziness Three things came together to push this stock up +20x in a week; Massive short position Option buying Markets love stories Simon dissects the three explains how it all played out and why it is perfectly legal. [caption id="attachment_24640" align="aligncenter" width="678"] GameStop daily chart[/caption] Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / Netflix results / Weak IBM results / Tesla results this week / US GDP (4th quarter) / Federal Reserve rate statement on Thursday / Procter & Gamble solid results & increasing buy backs by $2billion to $18billion Local / Chris Griffith Kumba ==> Anglo Plat ==> now Goldfields / BAW selling motor division for R947m / MPC no surprise but vote was 3-2, with 2 for a hike. / Redefine to pass on 2020 dividend / Strong Richemont update

Simon Shares Trading updates from Truworths (JSE code: TRU) and Foschini (JSE code: TFG) both saw sales decrease for the period ending both saw sales down. But not down as much as expected and hence the stocks went wild. Truworths was up some 25% in two days. More than anything this is because expectations were dire. That said I'm not convinced, the lockdown was increased post the period end and as mentioned, sales and HEPS are expected to be down. We'll get more retail updates and over the following two weeks, with Pick n Pay the exception - they don't issues sales trading updates. On Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK), they announced that after eight-years CEO Richard Brasher will be stepping down after a solid turn around in the company. Local CPI came in at 3.1% for December leaving 2020 at 3.3%, the lowest since 2004 (1.4%) and 1969 (3.0%). The MPC will announce he repo rate Thursday, no change expected and with growth under pressure (load shedding, new lockdowns and late vaccine) I don't any increases in 2021 Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes It's all lies All of it. Politicians, corporates, marketers. The whole lot. So we need to be extra cautious whenever we hear anything an ask the questions. Ask why they say that? Ask the likelihood of it being provable and how the lie benefits them? Ask what's missing, and why is it missing? Let's be clear, Trump has emboldened liars like nobody before him. But this is not new. Politicians lie all the time, most promising things that they're unable or worse, unwilling, to actually deliver on. But we've entered a new level whereby when lies are challenged they are deflected not with truth but more lies or the truth is called 'fake news'. For investors, we also have a bunch of lying happening. My favourite trick is that before I read a set of results I head to the previous one or two sets and maybe even an annual report and read their forward-looking statement and review of the period. This quickly gives you a sense of which CEOs are honest and which are just fluffing it until their next bonus. Accounts are themselves not directly lies, but they're also not 100% truth. There are assumptions made at many turns in a set of results. Some like Steinhoff we now know were all lies and I avoided that because of the complexity and that's an important point. Tongaat was a hard one to spot, but the red flag (in hindsight but useful for the future) is when the company gets to 'value' assets. African Bank we could spot because earnings were increasing but dividends were not. So no cash was being made from the higher earnings. Common amongst all three? Very strong CEO who ruled with an iron fist. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / Biden starts Wednesday, already has $1.9trillion stimulus plan / Japanese market at 3-decade highs / Chinese GDP +2.3% for 2020 / Rhodium above $20k / US won't ban investing into Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu / JPMorgan results knock it out of the park Local / Brasher exits Pick n Pay / Murray & Roberts OZ contract / Truworths trading update / J&J vaccine details expected this week, good news for Aspen / Load shedding returns / MPC on Thursday

2021 predictions show Every year Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown do a predictions show. Three wild and woolly predictions for the markets followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead. Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year's predictions and you'll find the 2020 predictions show here. Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes The 2021 predictions are (listen for reasoning); Marc Ashton Not more than 10% of SA population (6million) vaccinated during 2021 Gold close 2021 +$2k Ford & GM out preform Tesla Top40 ~ green ZAR ~ stronger Keith McLachlan Resi10 in $ will beat Nasdaq US ten year real yield (less inflation) will be negative Eastern Cape house price inflation will beat Gauteng Top40 ~ green ZAR ~ stronger Simon Brown Russel 2000 beats S&P500 Resi10 beats Fini15 & Indi25 No US or ZA rate increases this year Top40 ~ green ZAR ~ stronger JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / Tech wild year / Oil goes negative / Gold breaks $2,000 / Brexit / Tesla Local / Sasol / Top40 green for the year & just off all-time highs / Even the Rand recovered most of the losses and trades better than 5 years ago / Budget deficit / Lots of business rescue, but less than I expected

Simon Shares Trellidor* (JSE code: TRL), I've been buying. We've seen DIY stocks doing well and small SA Inc shares surprise to the upside and I think this could be one of them. Interim is end December so an update should arrive mid-February. Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) results were really good. This stock was very expensive at listing and above 2400c in 2016 it was crazy. But price came down and earnings increased so now looking fairly priced and very well positioned in the low cost and passive space with even trading contributing around 25% to revenue. I received an email about being charged massive fees for a trade that happened over multiple days. This is not new and is how the JSE charges. Trades on one day, same stock and all buys or sells are bulked together and charged as one trade. But trades in separate days are each charged as a new trade and so the brokerage minimums hit and can hit hard, very hard. The way to avoid is when you get that SMS for first trade to adjust the price to ensure full quantity or do an at market trade. Next show will be 14 January; predictions with Marc Ashton, Keith Mclachlan and myself. We look back at the previous years and make new bold ones. Position your portfolio for 2021 * I hold ungeared positions. Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes 2020 finished n klaar I've lived a lot of years but no matter how many, none like this one. What is has done is force us to reflect on things. Frankly to reflect on pretty all things as everything got turned upside-down. As an example, I 'had' to live in Johannesburg because of my TV work. Well, now we know that isn't the case as I have been doing weekly TV shows from my lounge since March. In the future, I continue doing TV work from my lounge, and that the lounge could be anywhere with high-speed Internet. I also remember hard lockdown surrounded by all my 'things'. They did not make my life beautiful, I missed people and experiences. I also remember my portfolio crashing and not even checking how bad it was. Markets recover, sure this recovery was swifter than anything I have seen before and made no sense. But markets often don't make sense and fighting them is fruitless. It also gave us a real-time chance to measure a number of important investment considerations. How robust were the stocks you held? How diverse was your portfolio? Did you react accordingly? I sold some much-loved stocks that I thought would be in serious trouble and even bought a gold miner for the first time ever. Did you panic? I did not get everything right, that truthfully is never the aim. But I also did not sit stuck like a deer in the headlights. Point being, 2020 has been wild and we should reflect, reflect lots on our lives and or portfolios. If we do that right then we'll be stronger in the future. Lastly, watch out for the push back. Lots of incentives to return to how it was, but is that what you want? Did you like the old way or do you see a new improved way or a blend? Decide and then make it happen. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / US$908billion stimulus plan proposed for the US / US markets at new highs / Salesforce buying Slack for US$27.7billion / Pfizer vaccine starts being administered this week in the UK / Oil moving higher / Gold bounces need to get above US$1,860 Local / Sasol update, likely rights issue will be smaller / Locusts in NC, WC & FS and returning rains / Barloworld results (and price surge) / Vukile benefiting from non-metro malls / Top40 closes Friday at third-highest level ever / Comair returns to the skies but not the market

Simon Shares Really strong November for stocks. France and Italy had their best months ever, S&P500 +11% and JSE +10%. The Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine has been approved for use in the UK starting next week. Limited supplies so front line workers and old people first. But this is good news and suggests that the news for 2021 will be more about rolling out of the vaccine albeit probably also lots of second and third waves. But there is a light at the end of the tunnel and it's not a train. Upcoming events; 03 December ~ JSE Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2021 Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Bytes UK (JSE code: BYI) JSE listing is confirmed for next Thursday. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) very strong results for the year ending August 2020. Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) issue a strong trading update, HEPS expected 62%-67% stronger, results due on Tuesday. ASISA report record inflows into CIS in SA in Q3 while Q2 saw R88billion added as markets were collapsing. Peeps are smart. Decent bounce in gold, but still looking weak even as it moves above the 200-day MA. I hold Pan African* (JSE code: PAN) and continue to hold. The position is small and really is insurance for just in case. 2020 has been wild and I not placing bets in 2021 just yet. Aveng (JSE code: AEG) doing rights issue at 1.5c that will double the number of shares to 40billion! They'll then do a consolidation and always be short a consolidation. Sasol (JSE code: SOL) seems to have cleaned up much of the mess and old enough assets to make a rights issue below the upper US$2billion level. Coupled with oil looking like it may go higher is good news for the share. * I hold ungeared positions. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / U.K. economy is forecast to contract by 11.3% this year, "the largest fall in output for 300 years," Chancellor Rishi Sunak tells MPs / Musk now the worlds second richest person / Janet Yellen tipped for Biden cabinet as Treasury Secretary / China imposing tariffs on Australia, especially their wine. / Down Jones trades above 30,000 for the first time. / Black Friday 2020 online shopping surges 22% to record $9 billion, Adobe says Local / Huge $5billion share buy-back from Prosus and Naspers / Firstrand update "the earnings trend for the four months from 1 July 2020 to 31 October 2020 is reflecting a better than anticipated rebound." / EOH CEO, Steven van Collier testifies at the Zondo Commission / Lewis results and dividend results on a dividend yield of +11% / Acquisition and baby range expand Mr Price's markets / Gold under serious pressure

Simon Says Another week another vaccine. U.K. economy is forecast to contract by 11.3% this year, "the largest fall in output for 300 years," Chancellor Rishi Sunak tells MPs. US Jobless Claims +30K To 778K In Nov-21 Week, secondly weekly rise. Continuing Claims -299K to 6,071,000 for Nov-14 week. Dow Jones trades above 30,000 for the first time on Tuesday & S&P500 closed at a new all-time high. Dow 20,000 was 25 January 2017 and 10,000 29 March 1999 (12,000 was September 2007). Lewis (JSE code: LEW) results with a 133c interim dividend. Double that for the full year makes for a yield fo some 11.9%. Stor-Age* (JSE code: SSS) offering their dividend as cash or new shares issued at 1240c. People asking what I'm doing? Taking the shares. Adcorp (JSE code: ADR), stock was 130c on 15 October ahead of their trading udate. Results in Wednesday saw it trading at 600c [caption id="attachment_24206" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Adcorp Daily[/caption] * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 03 December ~ JSE Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2021 Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Bitcoin is tiny, even at highs Disclaimer upfront, I have been buying Bitcoin because I like to own things that are going up, my average entry price is R204k. This is a trade, so I will take my money at some point. Looks certain to make new all-time highs and US$20k surely sooner rather than later. Not a bubble this time, as it was in 2017. That doesn't mean can't collapse or can't become a bubble. Interestingly the narrative has changed, the talk of Bitcoin for payments, something I said was a long long way off, is no longer the biggie. Now it really positioning itself as an alternative asset. Remember how blockchain would save the world? But here's what was really interesting to me, the market cap of Bitcoin. ±US$400billion! Less than Tesla, in fact very tiny. Consider how many exchanges, blogs, shows and chatter about this one asset that is so very small. The size also restricts large institutions getting involved. For comparison, gold is about US$9trillion, NYSE about US$30trillion and total US debt US$27trillion. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore / Another Monday another vaccine ~ Moderna / 12 million Americans are on track to lose unemployment benefits in December if Congress doesn't extend key programs that were part of the CARES Act passed in March. / JPMorgan forecasts negative GDP in the first quarter, the first Wall St. bank to begin forecasting a negative reading. JPM expects the economy to bounce back in / Amazon moving into the pharmacy business / Boeing 737 Max is back / Bitcoin heading for new highs & FSCA proposes making cryptocurrencies an asset class. Local / Moody's & Fitch downgrade SA further into junk. / Somebody wants City Lodge East Africa hotels / Results; Stor-Age*, Astral Spar