WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Simon Shares City Lodge* (JSE code: CLH) results, fair valuation around 800c? BHP Group* (JSE code: BHG) will see a significant reduction in its weighting in Top40 and Resi10 indices. PSG (JSE code: PSG) exiting the JSE. Wilson Bayly Holmes (JSE code: WBO) has lost investor confidence. Murray & Roberts* (JSE code: MUR) results. HEPS at 29c a little light, but back in profit. War in Europe Inflation is the biggest economic issue. Energy, PGMs and agriculture. Will central banks stick to their rate rising trend? People want to buy the Russian ETF, why? Even if peace happens today, sanctions will be in place for some time to come. Buy Satrix Resi10 ETF* (JSE code: STXRES). The Oil ETN (JSE code: SBOIL). Local stocks impacted Barloworld (JSE code: BAW) about 20% of revenue. Mondi (JSE code: MND) about 12% of revenue. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 07 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Geopolitics, inflation and markets

Wednesday was budget day and our tax experts, AJM Tax, hosted a live panel discussion covering the budget; highlights and low lights. We've included the recording for this week's episode. The panellists were; Divan Botha – moderator Dr Albertus Marais ~ Director at AJM Tax Laila Razack ~ CFO of Equites Property Fund Simon Brown ~ Founder Just One Lap and host MoneywebNOW

Simon Shares Strong Nedbank (JSE code NED) trading update. If you held Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) when it all went wrong in 2017 you have until 15 May to submit a claim. Oceana (JSE code: OCE), now the CEO quits? * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 22 April ~ Introducing the CoreShares Total World ETF 06 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Finding income in JSE listings What's down with Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE), owners of EasyEquities? After a high of 349c a month ago it's now 261c. Firstly it's more sellers than buyers. The hype of the pandemic trading is fading and easy returns are fading. So less trading, slower new accounts (albeit reports that they still have great new account rates). Vacation is wild. For the year ending August 2021 737k active accounts (up 45.7%). Each account makes R69 profit. But as accounts age profits per account increase. What can we expect to see for the year ending August 2022? (NOTE, the interim results to end February will be out early April). 1million accounts? That's 263k new accounts and growth of 35%. Profit per account R76 (10% growth, older account more profitable BUT less market volatility means less transactions). = R76million profit (I ignore GT247 and Emperor Asset Management) With 1.2billion shares in issue that's HEPS of 6.3c = forward PE of ±40x That seems fair, but there are risks. The assumptions above could be wrong GT247 could lose money New projects cost money Dilution with new share issues I am only using EasyEquities, ignoring other business units. There are of course potential upside surprises as well The assumptions above could be wrong Growth is better GT247 makes money and EasyProperties kicks in strongly I sold 35% of my holding at 315c-345c on the way up, this was because it simply became too large within my portfolio (was the biggest holding after buying at 50c less than 2 years ago). But I am happy to continue holding.

Simon Shares Great Sappi (JSE code: SAP) results. Strong Hudaco (JSE code: HDC) results. Top40 is trading at all-time highs, as is Resi10 and MidCap is almost there. Kastle back to work barometer shows office attendance in the US is still not back to levels from before the most recent pandemic wave and around 33% (on average) of pre-pandemic levels. Back in November, the average was just over 38%. IPO process explained. Ashburton ETFs have moved over to FNB. Meta Platforms (Nasdaq code: FB); Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp Down 25% on the day of the results. Fell further and now off 43% from September 2021 highs and back at May 2020 levels. Market cap below US$600billion, that happens to be the number House legislators picked as the threshold for a "covered platform" in a package of competition bills aimed at Big Tech. Active users declined $10billion lost revenue due to new iOS privacy rules $10billion on metaverse. Regulatory issues. Meta threatens to shut down Facebook and Instagram in Europe over proposed regulations. The EU says, 'please do'. All said this is just one quarter, the next few quarters will tell us the true story. Upcoming events; 17 February ~ JSE Power Hour: Tax-free investing

Simon Shares PGMs are on the move, most notably palladium and rhodium. But the miners are not. Combined Motor Holdings* (JSE code: CMH) strong trading update. MTN (JSE code: MTN) vs. Vodacom (JSE code: VOD) updates. Who's winning? Strong Astral (JSE code: ARL) update, but for the half ending March - so off low base. Ascendis (JSE code: ASC) looking to sell three businesses, but that won't leave much behind. OPEC+ agrees to a 400k barrel/day increase from March, this was the initial plan from last year. The local CPI basket is changing. Satrix is listing an India ETF, currently in IPO. The local prime interest rate increased 0.25% last week. This adds R152 per R1million of a bond. Not a lot, but this is the second one already and we have many more coming. The ARK Innovation ETF (NYSE code: ARKK) has had a tough year and at a point, in January, it was behind the Nasdaq over the life of the fund and it is trailing the Nasdaq over one and three years. That all said, they publish all their research and released their Big Ideas 2022 report which is well worth the read. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 9 February ~ Wealth Creation through Trading and Investing with ThinkMarkets 17 February ~ JSE Power Hour: Tax-free investing

Simon Shares PGMs are on the move, most notably palladium and rhodium. Oil also still moving, remember the ETN for that. Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) update shows the pandemic home improvement boom is over. ArcelorMittal South Africa (JSE code: ACL) update sees them into profit and on a PE of under 2x. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) settlement approved, but still lots of debt. Markets are spooked Lots to be spooked by; FOMC, it's all happening in March Asset purchases are also to end in March, but what of the US$9trillion of bonds the Fed holds? Valuations are high. Rates are rising. Inflation is at decade highs. Value winning over growth for the first time in an age. Upcoming events; 09 February ~ Wealth Creation through Trading and Investing with ThinkMarkets

Simon Shares BHP Group* (JSE code: BHP) is unifying its dual-listed company (DLC) corporate structure effective close 28 January. This will count as a CGT event for shareholders who will have been deemed to have sold their shares and bought the new ones. Microsoft (Nasdaq code: MSFT) is buying Activision-Blizzard for $69 billion, but who's the largest gaming company in the world? Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700). German 10-year back above 0%. [caption id="attachment_31941" align="aligncenter" width="888"] German 10-year yield[/caption] Oil at 7-year highs. There's an ETN for that. * I hold ungeared positions.

Now for the tenth year in a row, we kick off the new year with a predictions show. Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown put their heads on the block with three wild and woolly predictions for the markets for 2022 followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead. Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year's predictions and you'll find the 2021 predictions show here.

Holiday show Back in 2010 the world watched as Greece plunged further and further into a debt crisis with many expecting the EU to not survive. But Angela Merkel saved Greece and the day. [caption id="attachment_31826" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Greek 10Y bond rates[/caption] Greek debt to GDP (%) source: tradingeconomics.com

On the 20th September 2021 Chinese property developer missed interest payments on some US$300billion of debt and this spooked markets into a selloff. But three months later nobody cares. What's the background sorry and why does nobody care?

After clogging up the Suez Canal for six days back in March 2021 and halting much of the worlds shipping trade, what happened to Ever Given?

Offshore / Strong year of returns globally, CAC40 (France) top index / US inflation, not transitory / US unemployment looking decent / China crackdown / Commodities mostly a soft year, the exception is oil / Supply chain chaos Local / Good year for local markets / Delisitng galore / GDP / Rand

Simon has a look back at the winners and losers from the JSE for 2021, year-to-date returns. There certainly are some losers, but mostly it is about winners as the Top40 did 21.5% so far and the top major global index was the Cac40 which returned 29.9%. Find the top ETFs here.

Offshore / US Labor Nov Nonfarm Payrolls +210K; Consensus +573K, unemployment improved to 4.2%. Fed's target for 'maximum employment' is for unemployment rate of 4.5%. / Didi leaving NYSE / Google will no longer require workers to return to the office on Jan. 10, delaying the return indefinitely. / Dorsey leaves Twitter / OPEC+ agrees to January production hikes Local / Implats comes for RBPlats / Capital Appreciation results / Tharisa results / Bidcorp updates / Murray & Roberts update

Simon Shares Bidcorp (JSE code: BID). Strong update, they're coming out of this pandemic much stronger. Aspen (JSE code: APN) announces manufacturing deal with Johnson & Johnson (NYSE code: JNJ). Implats (JSE code: IMP) wants RBPlats (JSE code: RBP), sorry Northam Platinum (JSE code NPH). Powell, Fed chair, says inflation is not transitory. Oil under severe pressure, OPEC+ meeting was pushed back to Wednesday. New variant, I bought City Lodge* (JSE code: CLH) and Sun International* (JSE code: SUI) on Friday. I did buy somme leisure on Friday, CLH at 400c and SUI at 2100c .. will see shortly if that was a good idea or not ..#JSE https://t.co/aHKZOIxLbu — Simon Brown (@SimonPB) November 29, 2021 * I hold ungeared positions.

Offshore / Powell second term as Fed chair / Fed's Bostic says he remains open to faster taper and one or two rate hikes in 2022 / Online Black Friday sales in the US fell according to data from Adobe Analytics ($8.9bn vs. $9bn) / Opec+ meeting this week, production likely to remain unchanged / Turkish lira losses 20% Local / New variant crashes markets and leisure stocks (everything) / Good Invicta results, but no dividend / Good PPC results / Brait apital raise via convertiable bond / Hospital stock results; Life Healthcare & Netcare / Banking stocks

Simon Shares Coronation* (JSE code: CML) grows assets, fees and dividends. PPC (JSE code: PPC) results look good. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) price action looking weak. PGMs fading again. Hospital group stocks; Life Healthcare JSE code: LHC) and Netcare (JSE code: NTC) both had fair results as they get better at managing the pandemic. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) launched their banking account, under pinned by Grindrod Bank (JSE code: GND) who also stand to benefit from the MTBPS last week whereby the minister said they'd allow independent traffic on the Transnet rail network by end of 2022. Turkish lira collapse. This is what happens when your central bank is not independent. Two stocks that made a real difference to my portfolio over the last two decades, Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) and Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP). * I hold ungeared positions. Twenty years of food retailers on the #JSE pic.twitter.com/BDKeOPU11t — Simon Brown (@SimonPB) November 23, 2021 Twenty years of local banks .. only really one bank in it as the other 4 battle along the bottom as Capitec does 46% CAGR over the two decades ..#JSE pic.twitter.com/yMx0NSDYrV — Simon Brown (@SimonPB) November 24, 2021

Simon Shares Iron ore below US$100. Kumba (JSE code: KIO) halved since July highs. And still falling. But Q3 sales were at US$180 / tonne and even at current lows likely they get US$150 / tonne for the second half. Mid-year cost per tonne was US$26 and sale price US$165 / tonne. So the share is pricing in horror stories which likely aren't true fr the full year ending December. BUT next year will be different and you don't try to catch falling knives, wait for a confirmed reversal. Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) trading update, really weak. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) trading update, really strong. Strong PPC (JSE code: PPC) update. Local inflation came in at 5%, the fourth month we're below US inflation and likely we'll see no change at MPC on Thursday. * I hold ungeared positions. [caption id="attachment_31691" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Top40 daily[/caption] Upcoming events; 18 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Opportunities in local and global property 25 November ~ The inflation threat, is it becoming structural? 02 December ~ JSE Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2022 09 December ~ Portfolio construction with Keith McLachlan

Offshore / US inflation, 6.2%. Core inflation highest since 1991. / Johnson & Johnson announced plans to split its company into two, separating its consumer health division from its pharmaceutical and healthcare businesses. / Elon Musk selling Tesla shares, some planned n September. Rest thanks to the Twitter poll. / Singles day in China, muted (+8.5%) but still huge, Alibaba $84.5billion / Tencent results. Slowing in all areas. Common prosperity is visible in the results. Local / MTBPS, not much happening - as expected. / Vodacom buying Vodafone Egypt, nice deal and adds a strong growth region. / Purple Group results, really top class and much better than I expected. 737k funded accounts. / Sappi results, doing well as dissolving pulp prices boom. But energy costs hurting. / Raubex results strong with a really good pipeline and well positioned for infrastructure / Northam scopes Implats and buys 33% of RBPlats

Simon Shares Iron ore below US$100. Kumba (JSE code: KIO) halved since July highs. Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) results. Northam (JSE code: NPH) buys stake in RBPlats (JSE code: RBP). Telkom (JSE code: TKG) results. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) results. [caption id="attachment_31661" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Purple Group daily chart[/caption] * I hold ungeared positions.

Offshore / US tapering begins / Strong US jobs data / US passes $1trillion infrastructure bill / Bank of England leaves rates unchanged / Strong Pfizer results / Elon Musk asks Twitter if he should sell 10% of his Tesla shares, and pay tax Local / Mini budget this week / Renergen reserves / Dis-Chem results / MTN update / Purple Group update / Petrol increase

Simon Shares Federal Reserve FOMC press conference Wednesday evening after a two-day meeting. Avis (NYSE code: CAR) up 50x from March 2020 lows after results. Pfizer (NYSE code: PFE) results. Ascendis (JSE code: ASC) shareholder activists now control 30% of the votes. Renergen* (JSE code: REN) announce a six-fold increase in helium reserves. Still need to raise UAS$800m or R12.3billion to get phase 2 up and running. [caption id="attachment_31627" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Renergen weekly chart[/caption] US$8.5billion from France, Germany, the UK and the US governments, as well as the EU, to support a just transition to a low carbon economy. * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares Tesla (NYSE code: TSLA) becomes the worlds 7th trillion-dollar company. Excellent Santova (JSE code: SNV) results. My bad pandemic crash sale. Decent Famous Brands* (JSE code: SSW) results. Implats (JsE code: IMP) wants to buy Royal Bafokeng Platinum (JSE code: RBP). Sibanye-Stillwater* (JSE code: SSW) buys two Brazilian mines for US$1billion and 19.99% investment in New Century Resources for US$46million. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 04 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Bold predictions from SA's top broker 11 November ~ Investment Valuation with Keith McLachlan From the last week Satrix launches All Share ETF CoreShares dividend tax

Offshore / Evergrande has its suspension lifted and makes an interest payment / Oil remaining stubbornly high / Inflation fears, time for gold? / Paypal maybe buying Pinterest for US$45billion / Netflix results, still growing albeit north America very slowly / Facebook getting a new name as the future is the metaverse Local / Local CPI 5% for September / Pick n Pay results / Excellent results from Combined Motor Holdings / Clicks results / New Satrix All Share ETF listing in November / Renergen launches a helium token

Simon Shares South Africa inflation rose to 5% in September. Food inflation is 7%, electricity 14%, and fuel almost 20%, with a large petrol price increase expected in November. These increases are partially offset by clothing inflation at 1.6%, appliances -0.4%, and housing rentals around 1% — kevin lings (@lingskevin) October 20, 2021 Wesizwe Platinum (JSE code: WEZ) went crazy after releasing a competent person report. Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR). Balwin Properties (JSE code: BWN). US lists its first Bitcoin ETF, ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (NYSE code: BITO). It doesn't hold actual Bitcoin, rather it uses futures to track gains. losses. Everything Rally My positions for the everything rally. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 21 October ~ JSE Power Hour: Small cap investing with Anthony Clark 27 October ~ FX and Commodity prices and their effects on investments 04 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Bold predictions from SA's top broker 11 November ~ Investment Valuation with Keith McLachlan

Offshore / September, the CPI increased 5.4% after advancing 5.3% on a year-on-year basis in August. / China Q3 GDP at 4.9% / Biden announced that the Port of Los Angeles would start operating around the clock, following the Port of Long Beach's lead, to ease congestion / $2.7 Trillion in Crisis Savings Stay Hoarded by Wary Consumers / Microsoft shuts down LinkedIN in China / MTNs IHS Towers lists in NY, MTN stake worth R22bn Local / Government cracking down on imported cement, but not with tariffs. / IMF bumps local GDP to 5% for 2021 / Murray & Roberts expands in the US / Long4Life results and offer on the table / Tharisa gets their Chrome plant cold commissioned / Alaris & CSG both have delisting offers.

Simon Shares Murray & Roberts* (JSE code: MUR) expands in the US. The government says they'll only use locally produced cement in projects. PPC (JSE code: PPC) and Sephaku (JSE code: SEP both fly higher. But is the market right about this? We're off the UK red list, good for local hotels? Aveng (JSE code: AEG) have announced plans for a 1:500 share consolidation in December. This usually sees prices weakness after the consolidation. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan 21 October ~ JSE Power Hour: Small cap investing with Anthony Clark 27 October ~ FX and Commodity prices and their effects on investments

Offshore / US jobs disappoints, but unemployment 4.8%. / 15% global tax rate approved. / Oil continues to run higher / Reports that Malaysia is getting back on track with chip packaging sees PGMs run hard as it could be good news for vehicle production / Last Tuesday was tenth commemoration of the death of Steve Jobs. A legend and the iPhone one of the best products ever? / All facebook properties down on Monday for 6 hours. Local / EOH update shows it'll make an operating profit / Invicta buys Dartcom, moving into communications and renewable energy / Zeder results, still waiting on value unlock / Sanlam Investment Holdings buying Absa investment businesses. / Home loans worth +R56.6 billion were granted in Q2 2021, +40% compared to the same period in 2019.

Simon Shares Facebook (Nasdaq code: FB), Instagram and WhatsApp all down on Monday. Evergrande is suspended. Last week it was a fat finger Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) taking the stock down to 125c. This week it hits 225c. Murray and Robert* (JSE code; MUR) starting to move higher. Brent oil is now around $82. PGMs remains under pressure. EOH (JSE code: EOH) makes an operational profit, but the debt pile remains. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan 21 October ~ JSE Power Hour: Small cap investing with Anthony Clark

Offshore / China & Europe power shortages / Brent oil trading around $80 / Merck Covid-19 pill, expected to produce 1.7 million courses for the U.S. government for $1.2B / Tesla delivered record 241,300 vehicles in the third quarter / Work-from-home forever: PwC offers US employees full-time remote work Local / Level 1 & SA expected to be removed UK red list, will tourists return? / Capitec results / Bidcorp results / PPC debt restructuring / Purple Group tie up with Discovery Bank

Simon Shares FOMC and MPC both keep rates unchanged, No surprise. Evergrande is not a threat to the global financial system. Fat finger on Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE). * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 30 September ~ Power Hour - JSE traded ETNs on Tesla, Apple, clean energy and more 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan

Offshore / FOMC leaves rates unchanged and no tapering just yet. / Evergrande a worry but not a global threat / China bans crypto, again. / Britain has a shortage of lorry drivers, and so a petrol shortage. / Nike cut its 2022 revenue outlook because of the temporary bottlenecks plaguing supply chains. Local / MPC no change / Telkom to spin out towers (Swiftnet) worth about R13billion. Openserve will happen afterwards. / PGM prices remain under pressure as vehicle production the world over in under pressure due to chip shortages. / Spur results / Exxaro has announced the development of a 70 MW solar project as part of the groups "overall renewable energy strategy". / Grindrod sells remaining stake in Grindrod Shipping for R370million

Simon Shares Clicks (JSE code: CLS) revised trading update, previous EPS growth was 8%-13%. Now revised to 0%-3%. Afrocentric (JSE code: ACT). Great little stock. Not a bad update from Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) US inflation for August was 5.3%. US poverty levels went down in 2020, during the pandemic. AB Inbev (JSE code: ANH) just keeps on falling, why? PGMs getting crushed. Platinum down at US$934, palladium around US$2,000 and rhodium US$13,300. What's happening? When does it reverse? * I hold ungeared positions.

Offshore / PayPal announced plans to buy Japanese "Buy Now, Pay Later" BNPL company Paidy Inc. for $2.7B / US judge rule against Apple and in Epic Games favour in antitrust lawsuit; judge says Apple's conduct in enforcing anti-steering restrictions is anticompetitive / China Evergrande Group default risk ($300bn) / U.S. Senate Democrats float stock buyback tax as part of $3.5 trillion bill / The World's Shippers Are Earning The Most Money Since 2008 Local / Local Q2 GDP, we're 1.4% below pre-pandemic levels / SARB governor Lesetja Kganyago suggests we work towards a 3% inflation target, with a 2-4% tolerance range / FSCA fines Viceroy R50m / Result; Shoprite / Results; Momentum / Results; Bidvest

Simon Shares Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) results. Christo Wiese gets R342m in dividends. 21million consumers using their Xtra Savings and 1.5million downloads of the Sixty60 app. The market did not much like the Murray & Roberts* (JSE code: MUR) results. Old Mutual updates 2021 GDP forecast to 5.5%. This is after Stats SA released GDP for Q2 QonQ at 1.2% (YonY 19.3%) and better than expected. The economy remains 1.4% below pre-covid levels. FSCA fines Viceroy R50million. They won't pay. SARB governor Kganyago Lesetja suggests we work towards a 3% inflation target, with a 2-4% tolerance range. New infrastructure ETF from Satrix. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 30 September ~ Power Hour - JSE traded ETNs on Tesla, Apple, clean energy and more 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan

Offshore / US jobs data slows. Likely means tapering not just yet even as ECB starts talking tapering. / New China restriction, kids gaming limited to one hour a day on Friday, weekend days and public holidays / Pfizer has recognized over $10 billion in profits from the COVID-19 vaccine alone, making it the best drug introduction in history. / After hurricane Ida oil recovery begins with ports and refineries restarting but most production in the Gulf of Mexico is still shut. / Chip shortage holds back German car sales in August Local / SA trade surplus at R37bn July vs R55bn June. YTD R290bn. / Mediclinic plans to go green in R2.2bn renewable energy deal / Results; Murray & Roberts / Results; Discovery / Results; Implats / Results; Aspen

Simon Shares Jackson Hole Bonang Mohale and his Serialong trust converts a Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) loan into 11.46% shares in the group ADvTECH* (JSE code: ADH) Stadio (JSE code: SDO) Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) Sun International (JSE code: SUI) MAS Real Estate (JSE code: MSP) Motus (JSE code: MTH) Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) Is this Woolworths' attempt at Athleisure ? Yikes! 😬 Crop Top : R249.99 Leggings : R299.99 I am flattered they think I,their customer, is a 20 year old Instagram Fitness star 🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/B4xsTJ36ho — Moms 💖 investing (@mommy_moneyza) September 1, 2021 * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 02 September ~ JSE Power Hour: Picking the next winning stock 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan

Offshore / Jackson Hole. Powell says nothing new. / TSMC, the world's largest maker of semiconductor chips, says it's raising its prices by about 20% / Hurricane Ida heading for the Gulf of Mexico, shutting down oil production. / China reportedly weighs ban on U.S. IPOs from domestic tech companies with sensitive data Local / Bonang Mohale and his Serialong trust converts a Purple Group loan into 11.46% shares in the group / Unemployment 34.4% / South African GDP rebased. The economy is 11% larger than previously measured. It is still the second-largest economy in Africa, after Nigeria. / National treasury says KZN July violence will take 0.7%-0.9% off 2021 GDP. / Sibanye Stillwater results / Woolies results

Simon Shares Jackson Hole South African GDP rebased. The economy is 11% larger than previously measured. It is still the second-largest economy in Africa, after Nigeria. South Africa unemployment 34.4%. National treasury says KZN July violence will take 0.7%-0.9% off 2021 GDP. New oil & copper ETNs Upcoming events; 02 September ~ JSE Power Hour: Picking the next winning stock 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan

Offshore / New Zealand going into lockdown, the world is getting vaccinated but the pandemic is far from over. / Pfizer expected to get full FDA approval for its covid vaccine this week. A whole new business (covid jabs & mRNA possibilities). / Tesla wants to build an AI robot / Jackson Hole this week / China securities regulator signals willingness to work with the US on audits Local / South Africa inflation lower at 4.6% in July 2021. / Sasol results / Shoprite / Massmart deal / ARB Holdings results / Metair results

Simon Shares JSE is broken. 100 MW gazetted. Renergen* (JSE code: REN) update. South Africa inflation lower at 4.6% in July 2021. Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) results. Resource stocks ex-div. But still lots of pain. Super BHP Group* (JSE code: BHP) results. New Clean energy and water ETNs listed. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 19 August ~ JSE Power Hour: BEE shares and the JSE 02 September ~ JSE Power Hour: Picking the next winning stock 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan

Offshore / US inflation comes in as expected / Britain's GDP grew by 4.8% in the second quarter of this year, leaving the economy just 2.2% below its pre-pandemic level / Google employees who work from home could lose money / US infrastructure bill moving forward / India to unveil US$1.35trillion infrastructure bill Local / 100mw power generation laws gazetted / Naspers / Prosus swap is unconditional / Strong Merafe results / MTN results and Sanlam tie up / Nedbank results / Exxaro and Thungela results

Offshore / US GDP 6.5% , below expectations but the economy now larger than pre-pandemic / US moving forward with an infrastructure bill / The U.S. debt ceiling officially became operative again on Sunday after a two-year suspension / Amazon results see stock down 7% / Alphabet results & $50bn buyback / Microsoft results, LinkedIn does +$10bn Local / Tencent woes hit JSE (but all-time closing high on Thursday) / Results; Anglo Platinum, Kumba Iron Ore and Anglo American / Liberty2Degrees results / ArcelorMittal South Africa results / Treasury considering access to retirement savings

Simon Shares Wild week for Naspers (JSE code: NPN), Prosus (JSE code: PRX) as Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) got slapped down by the Chinese government. We're back at level 3, adjusted. Alcohol sales are allowed and Distell (JSE code: DGH) put out another great trading update. No doubt better if no alcohol bans, but the argument that your industry is under threat wears thin after such an update. President Ramaphosa also announced the return of the pandemic grant to the unemployed at R350 a month until March 2022. This pays to some 9.5million South African and means just over R3billion a month into the economy. How do we pay for it? Dividend tax on these super dividends. Apple $21.7billion in profits, almost doubling the previous year. Alphabet nearly tripled its profits to $18.5billion as advertising revenue grew 69%. Microsoft profits hit $19.1B, up 42% from the previous year. The market capitalization of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Alphabet, and Microsoft is now over 30% of the entire S&P 500 index and over 40% for the Nasdaq100. Tigerbrands (JSE code: TBS) are recalling 20million tins. Two new ETFs coming to market. Global healthcare from Sygnia and a diverse and inclusive ETF from Satrix. Upcoming events; 19 August ~ JSE Power Hour: BEE shares and the JSE Forget super cycle, hello super dividends Anglo Platinum (JSE code: AMS) paid an R175.00 total dividend. Kumba Iron Ore (JSE code: KIO) paid a 7270c. In both cases, this amounted to a dividend yield (DY) of around 10% at the interim stage. No share buybacks as Anglo American (JSE code: AGL) own a significant majority of the shares and likely want the dividend back at home. The question is will other miners be as generous or will they do some share buybacks as well? If commodity prices stay where they are, we'll see the same again in six months and into 2022? If prices remain the same to the end of 2022 (big if?) we'll get a 40% return from just dividends? This is what super profits look like.

Offshore / New closing highs for S&P500 & Nasdaq. But Russel2000 is lagging. / Apple delays back to the office to October / Twitter and Snap - good results / China regulator bars Tencent from exclusive rights in online music / Big results due this week; Apple & Amazon. So far reported results have been very strong. Local / Rioting impact, retail about 8% of store space impacted. REITs bigger concern. / Local inflation drops / Anglo Americana and BHP production updates / City lodge sells East African assets / Cashbuild update / Distell update

Simon Shares We now have updates from listed retailers as to the damage caused by last weeks rioting. Chantal Marx ran the data and says we saw almost 1,700 stores looted or closed due to the rioting and this is about 8% of the retailers' local footprint and some 5% of global footprint. This is a significant number, but considering many are open for trade again, with many opening last weekend already. The impact on earnings is likely to be very modest, if at all. PwC expects last weeks riots to take about 0.4% off local GDP for 2021. They already had a low expectation of under 3%, but that drop of 0.4% does illustrate how listed retailers may be okay, the real pain is in the unlisted and especially the small one-off store. Local CPI dropped a little in June to 4.9% (5.2% in May). The population of South Africa was estimated to be 60.14million at mid-year 2021, an increase of about 604,281 (1.01%) since mid-year 2020. Stellar production updates from Anglo American (JSE code: AGL) and BHP* (JSE code: BHP). They are both firing on all cylinders, even if there have been some issues (iron ore rail line for example). But they're largely debt-free, no massive projects or M&A activity and Greg Katzenellenbogen says the worlds top miners will make almost US$120billion profit this year, double from last year. So massive dividends? Sygnia did not steal your dividend. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 22 July ~ JSE Power Hour: Power of savings 19 August ~ JSE Power Hour: BEE shares and the JSE Risk is good I got an email from a listener asking about risk free investments on the JSE. Thing is, there is no risk free on the JSE - and that's a good thing. Without risk there would be no reward. When I am looking for investments, I always look for the good things about the business. Margins, growth, product and the like. But I also dig into the risks, competition, input inflation and the like. The thing is, I like to see risk, I just want risk that I think the company can manage and ultimately maybe even turn into a benefit. For example, new product is absolutely a risk. But what if they disrupt themselves and create a new product that hits sales of their existing product, but creates an entire new category. Apple did this with the iPhone, killing off the iPod. When researching into long-term 'til death do us part' investments I create a short list of the three main features I like in a stock. But I also create a list of the three main risks and I keep a close eye on both lists.

Offshore / US inflation, again above expectations / Delta airline results show travel returning / US bank earnings as previsions put back into the income statement / Netflix looking into gaming / QoQ China's GDP increased 1.3% in Q2, 7.9% YoY Local / Rioting impacts as listed companies report details / South African Special Risks Insurance Association (Sasria) will cover claims / Standard Bank taking out Liberty Holdings / Very strong Richemont update / Tongaat results / Steinhoff increases settlement offer

Simon Shares I'm recording Wednesday afternoon and the violence of the past week seems to be abating, certainly in Gauteng. It has been a horror week for our country and most importantly; look after yourself if you can somebody else as well and above all else, be kind. US CPI YoY 5.4%. Core YoY 4.5%. Both ahead of expectations. A very strong production update from Pan African (JSE code: PAN) and their 15ha blueberry farm. OPEC+ seems to have reached a compromise between Saudi Arabia and UAE that should see an OPEC+ deal possible. US earnings season has kicked off and is expected to be the best ever - and it needs to be with S&P500 and Nasdaq100 at all-time highs. Gold US$1,825. Lost in all the rioting is another two weeks of level 4 adjusted lockdown, albeit restaurants can seat customers. Upcoming events; 22 July ~ JSE Power Hour: Power of savings We're starting to see SENS announcements about the impact of the rioting. The worst-hit so far seems to be Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB), they have 36 stores directly impacted by rioting and looting and a further 33 stores closed as a precautionary measure. Ethekwini Region, according to its mayor, Mxolisi Kaunda. R1billion loss of stock has been affected & R15billion rand of damage to property and equipment. Fuel refinery Sapref declares force majeure and shuts the plant. Large parts of N3 remain closed and Durban harbour has thirteen ships waiting for entry (according to VesselFinder.com). To my memory of living in KZN and counting the ships waiting whenever I could, that's about as many as I've ever seen. These will resolve as the rioting quietens down, and evidence is that it peaked on Monday. Longer-term the impact is hard to tell. Certainly, thousands of small businesses are gone and with them jobs. The Rand has fallen to 14.66 after hitting 14.76 early on Wednesday after it was trading at 14.20 on Friday. The JSE is actually up some 3% so far for the week. Riot insurance So the answer here is fairly simple, South Africa has an SOE that covers riot insurance - South African Special Risks Insurance Association (Sasria). They repeatedly have clean audits (financials are here). Assets under management is a little over R8billion. But they have reinsurance. Pretty much any property insurance you have will include a line item for Sasria and it is very cheap. For corporates, it is a larger cost every month and the question is are corporates 10% insured or have they done some self insuring.

Offshore / US ten year back at 1.36% after peaking at +1.72% in March / Jeff Bezos has stepped down as Amazon CEO / OPEC+ couldn't reach an agreement / Fed minutes tell us nothing new, except inflation is higher/faster than they expected / US extends the economic blacklist of Chinese companies / China wants pre-IPO review of all new listings that have large user data Local / Imperial delisting offer at 6600c / Sibanye Stillwater bearish on palladium, bullish on platinum & rhodium / MultiChoice hit with R63billion tax bill in Nigeria / Nedbank WFH policy, 60% in office ie: 2 days WFH each week / Prosus shareholders approve share swap

Markets are as quiet as the street of Jozi, so this week a list of my favourite podcasts, the focus is offshore. I'll return and look at local in a few weeks. Upcoming events; 13 July ~ How to use ThinkMarkets Tools 22 July ~ JSE Power Hour: Power of savings Favourite podcasts; Planet Money Motley Fool Money Disciplined Investor Odd Lots Freakonomics Radio Michael Covel's Trend Following Radio