WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Local CPI 6.3% for May (lowest since April 2022) from 6.8% in April and vs expected 6.5%. A very good number and we should see June below 6% as June last year was the first +7% in this cycle at 7.4%. Simple base effect should put some serious pressure on inflation over the next few months. So is inflation largely over locally? Probably. Can we start talking about when the MPC starts cutting rates? The next MPC rate announcement is July, the day after we get June inflation and we'll see that the governor says. But cuts are maybe fourth quarter fo this year, at soonest. Standard Bank thinks another 0.25% hike later this year and consensus is cuts only starting next year. Simon Shares UK core inflation rises from 6.8% to 7.1% and CPI 8.7%. They are in trouble. Standard Bank (JSE code: SBK) trading update. Very much two parts, bad debts are ugly and profts are lookign great. They also expect a 0.25% rate increase in the second half of the year? Afrimat (JSE code: AFT) deal to buy Lafarge for ±R1billion. String vertical intergration and potential to boost profits to essentially be paying around a 3x PE. They also say that it looks lie constructions has bottomed in 2022. Omnia (JSE code: OMN) results. Agri struggling with margin pressure, ining booming while chemicals slips. But overall good and stock si cheap. Transaction Capital (JSE code: TCP) secures funding for Gomo. Securing the capital was a major market concern and now they have a bak using their balance sheet and they earn a margin. Good deal but market still selling. How to Diversify Your Commodity Exposure With the PICK ETF Dividend portfolio paying monthly

dd Disappearing dividends Just this week Spar (JSE code: SPP), MultiChoice (JSE code: MCG) and Telkom (JSE code:TKG) have all cut dividend to zero. We had big dividend payer Coronation (JSE code: CML) drop theirs to provision for the SARS fine and historically good dividend payer Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) reduce theirs. This shows the pain that companies are experiencing, not all, but certainly some, It perhaps also shows quality, for example Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) increased their dividend. The problem is we love dividends for cash flow and they tend to grow ahead of inflation, sometimes well ahead of inflation. They're also taxed better than traditional income from bonds or cash (albeit not as low as CGT). But the downside is that any dividend can disappear at any time. For investors such as myself, reduced dividend is not a big problem. I like the cash flow but don't need the income for expenses. For those living on dividends the pain is real. If the income is required you need a good amount of bond and cash investments and REITs that aside from the pandemic pay consistently, albeit REITs reduced over the last 5 or 6 years. Another option is something like dividend aristocrats (we have a local and offshore ETF for these). Here we have companies with decade long track record of paying dividends, but remember Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) was in the local dividend aristocrat ETF, so even this is not guaranteed. But a basket or ETF works well. Simon Shares US CPI for May 4.0%, lowest since March 2021. Latest IEA global oil market outlook: peak oil combustion by 2028? Petrol demand to peak this year Road transport oil demand peak 2025 All transport by 2026 Overall oil for combustion peak 2028 ZAR 18.33 Massive moves expected in Richemont (JSE code: CFR) on Thursday 15 June as the index rebalances. Could see ±R4billion of selling. * I hold ungeared positions. Simon Brown

Simon Shares SEC sues Binance and CEO for U.S. securities violations. SEC Charges Coinbase for Operating as an Unregistered Securities Exchange, Broker, and Clearing Agency. First quarter GDP was 0.4% and we avoid a technical recession. Pepkor (JSE code: PPH) price slide. Tigerbrands (JSE code: TBS) horror results. Oceana (JSE code: OCE) results knock it out the park. Sun City visit. Excellent resort, but very quiet which many commentators suggest is because it's a random weekend in June? I sent this past weekend at Sun City, vacation club. Some thoughts. The resort is world class, well maintained with a ton to do for kids and adults. 1/n pic.twitter.com/29yaV2GP8b — Simon Brown (@SimonPB) June 5, 2023 Buying SA Inc. Not yet but building a watch list with the plan being to buy 10-15 stocks over the months ahead. Why? Inflation comes down Rates decrease Load shedding ends (Renewable Energy Grid Survey points to 66 GW development pipeline in South Africa). Government finds a way out of the ICC Putin arrest warrant mess. Rand improves (already 100c better than the R20/US$ of last week) I hold ungeared positions. Simon Brown

Simon Shares MPC raised rates by 0.5% makes prime 11.75%, highest since 2009. The aim I suspect was to protect the rand, and that totally did not work as the currency hit its worst ever levels. Where will the rand go next? Does it ever strengthen again? RSA Retail Bond rates reset this morning and I expect the 5-year fixed to potentially increase by a full 15% and the CPI linked also reset and I also expect an increase there.. Will have update on the website. Tsogo Sun Gaming (JSE code: TSG) announced in their results last week they had acquired a ±10% stake in City Lodge (JSE code: CLH). Why? Also those were good results, much cheaper than other in the space. Zeda (JSE code: ZDD) results were poor. I was looking for FY 400c of HEPS, that's now seems a long shot. Debt is large, no dividend and short-term vehicle rentals is only a little above a quarter of pre-pandemic levels. I was holding and have sold. TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) results were a shocker but not unsurprising? Volumes flat while revenue was +16%, hello inflation. Got some debt, but totally manageable. Load shedding hurting, consumer broken and inflation all over. But the stock trades at ±1.5x book value (see chart here), last tine this happened was 1998 when prime hit 26%. Spar (JSE code: SPP) trading update, ouch. Is Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) eating everybody's lunch? Don't forget to action your Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) rights issue. You have until Tuesday to either sell the rights or take them up. Meta (Nasdaq code: META) fined Euro1.2billion by the EU, but stock rises on the day. These fines, even large ones, are just a cost of doing business for the mega large cap tech stocks? Nvidia (Nasdaq code: NVDA) gets all the AI hype and love to a trillion dollars. * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares Bond ETFs yielding ±10%. That's chunky and they can go in a tax-free account. New INCOME ETF from CoreShares. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) rights issue. If you held the share yesterday at close on Tuesday 23 May you will see PPEN in your account. 10.20567 for every 100 Purple shares you held. Each PPEN (letter of allocation or LOC as some are calling it) entitles you to buy 1 new Purple share at 81c. You can take up that right and buy, or You can sell them in the market If you do NOTHING by 6 June they disappear with ZERO value Sanlam will take their R45m and of the R105m public offer they will take up to ±R76m of the R105m if nobody else does. Existing large shareholders have promised to take up their rights at ±R28m. So at the end of the day they will get the R105m. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares I have been talking about a cracking (broken?) consumer for a few months now. Two recent surveys show exactly this data. BankservAfrica's five-year review of Take-home Pay and Private Pensions in South Africa for February 2018 – February 2023 "The average nominal salary Take-home Pay Index, increased from R12,573 to R15,438, +22.8%." But CPI was 26.6% and take home pay had kept track until last year. Debt Busters Debt Index | Q1 2023 survey "Nominal incomes were 2% higher than 2016 levels, however when cumulative inflation growth of 40% is factored in for the same seven-year period, consumers' purchasing power diminished by 38% over this period.". Rand trades at worst level ever on Friday, R19.5169/US$. Transaction Capital (JSE code: TCP), last week I sad the worst may be behind them. Well with the ZAR collapsing equalling more inflaiton and rates and petrok increases. Maybe not for SA Taxi or WeBuyCar. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) rights issue. Full details on 18 May. It will be R105m from Purple Shareholders and R45m from Sanlam at Easy Equities level. Total R150m Local PGM production down 14% in Q1. Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) results saw HEPS just above 150c while the stock trades at ±300x. Value or value trap? Sold my Sun International (JSE code: SUI) as price go backwards and I protecting profits. Excluding dividends ±70% return since November 2021. OpenAI Sam Altman goes before US Congress to propose licenses for AI. Pulling the ladder up behind you to stop others. I have been using ChatGPT via Bing and Google Bard. For investors they mostly useless. Octodec (JSE code: OCT) results. Large discount to NAV and DY ±14%. Investing in mega trends * I hold ungeared positions. Simon Brown

Simon Shares Transaction Capital (JSE code: TCP) results where pretty much as expected. Management have essentially thrown the kitchen sink at everything. H2 will be tough but likely a little better. FY24 a clean slate. But market does not agree with me. Nutun doing good WeBuyCars under pressure, no surprise, consumer cracking SA Taxi real ugly, but as detailed in trading update US unemployment 3.4%. April CPI 4.9%. The end of the US$ Bretton Woods essentially created teh US$ as a reserve currency Now all commodities trade in US$ The end of the US$ is as old as time, really kicked off with the advent of the Euro in 1999. But who take over? China, no? BRICS, that's only China. Euro, but they don't want a strong Euro and the world doesn't want the Euro either. That said, the US$ will lose influence over time. It has been and will continue to do so. One day it may well be over, but we're a very long way from that.

Simon Shares Implats (JSE code: IMP) trading update saw production down and costs up. That's squeezing margins and going to hurt. Kumba (JSE code: KIO) nice boost in production, but iron ore prices are falling. Will hurt Afrimat (JSE code: AFT) as well. Combined Motor Holdings* (JSE code: CMH) results sees them on a PE of under 5x and DY of ±13%. But return will be mostly from dividends, ±650c over next thirteen months = ±22%. Renergen* (JSE code: REN) results. Smaller loss, but no profit as they ramp up Phase 1. A deal with Timelink for LNG and contracts with Consol & Italtile most of Phase 1 LNG (±50 tons a day) is under contracted sale. MTN (JSE code: MTN) update from Ghana and Nigeria look good. On PE ±11x, stock is cheap, albeit not without risks (always for MTN). All my index trades have been stopped out. * I hold ungeared positions. Simon Brown

Simon Shares Coronation* (JSE code: CML) trading update, aside from the massive SARS judgement (and hence no dividend), not bad. But not yet time for buying as sellers persist. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) results saw a loss for the six months ending February 2022. But lots of extra one off expenses (expected for a growth business) and a tough market and they still have excellent growth potential. I continue to hold. * I hold ungeared positions. Simon Brown

Simon Shares Local CPI 7.1% for March up from 7.0% in February. Expected was 6.9%. Core inflation 5.2% vs expectations of 5.1%. Rates higher for longer. Reviewing Minister Pravin Gordhan's portfolio. Too many stocks, why not more ETFs? Platinum at all-time highs in rands. This as it trades at more than 50% off the all-time US$ highs from 2008. Still long all my index trades. Time to sell Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) as results show them as ex-growth? Return in Equity (RoE) 26% Cost-to-income (CTI) 39%. Impairments +80% and worrying the market But my worry is it is priced +2x valuations of the other four big banks and it is now largely a mature bank. Sure low cost base, but I do not think it deserves that high valuation so am likely exiting after holding since 2009. * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares US inflation for March at 5.0%, better then expected and initial response form markets was to jump higher. Big wait now is for first week of May and the next FOMC rate decision. Current open trading positions, long everything My 7/21 trading system has me long all the indices I trade as below; Nasdaq 22Mar23 @ 12,740 S&P500 21Mar23 @ 4,056 Euro Stoxx 50 03Apr23 @ 4,317 ASX200 05Apr23 @ 7,240 FTSE100 11Apr23 @ 7,793

Simon Shares Combined Motor Holdings* (JSE code: CMH) strong trading update puts the stock on a PE of under 5x and a dividend yield of ±15%. A great well run company, but what will get the price moving higher or do we just live off dividends? * I hold ungeared positions. Strong first quarter returns Q1 2023 return[/caption] Top40 stocks, top and bottom performers pic.twitter.com/zwZlJkRpwX — Simon Brown (@SimonPB) April 3, 2023

Simon Shares MPC announcement Thursday. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) git the 120c bottom of the range, but has suddenly rallied. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH), we now know what as the "Board agrees on a radical draft plan to enter into an insolvency process with creditors". The problem with dividends - they not tax efficient. They are great But tax. Dividend Withholding Tax (DWT) is 20%. The maximum Capital Gains Tax (CGT) is 18% after the annual R40k exclusion. And DWT you pay along the way, eroding your return over time whereas CGT you only pay at the end. Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway has never paid a dividend and he says they never will. Rather sell he says, more tax efficient. Share buys backs are more efficient, but done at high valuations destroy capital. No easy answer, but maybe we should temper our love? * I hold ungeared positions. Backup power on a budget Is the spread important when buying an ETF? Simon Brown

Simon Shares Federal Reserve FOMC raises 0.25% and the market drops as Fed says almost at the top. Local CPI comes in slightly higher at 7.0%. MPC meets next week, hold on rates or another +0.25%? Credit Suisse 'sold' to UBS. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) votes against the debt deal, now what? Bankruptcy surely? Transaction Capital (JSE codeL TCP) bounces, where's the value?

Simon Shares Silicon Valley Bank collapse, does this put a pause on US rate increases? FOMC next Tuesday/Wednesday. "Moody's cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing 'rapidly deteriorating operating environment'" Miss expectations and get slammed Transaction Capital Absa MTN Multichoice Hold winners, ditch laggers. Sun International (JSE code: SUI) vs. City Lodge (JSE code: CLH). ff * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares The local Q4 GDP came in at -1.3%, worse than expected -0.4% and shows the real pain of load shedding and Transnet issues. Q1 2023 not expected to be any better. Every set of results mentions load shedding and retailers are spending ±R1billion a year on diesel. Rand is looking weak, very weak. Grindrod (JSE code: GND) had good results and are clearly benefiting from the failure of Transnet ports. Bank results are looking good with Firstrand (JSE code: FSR) very strong and Nedbank (JSE code: NED) good and doing a R5billion share buy back.

Simon Shares Budget 2023 show, audio is fixed Solar as a service Retail Savings Bonds five-year fixed now at 10.5% Satrix takes over most Absa ETFs City Lodge* (JSE code: CLH) results Stale bulls Dividend of 5c Occupancies at 57% Debt gone Cater for business, who are Zooming more Overall a bit light Spur (JSE code: SUR) results vs. Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR). * I hold ungeared positions.

Budget 2023 Pieter Janse van Rensburg ~ AJM Tax Tony Leon ~ former leader of the opposition & ambassador Lesego Majatladi ~ Stay Latatude Simon Brown Great insights into the budget, who should be our finance minister and even the Coronation* (JSE code: CML) Con Court appeal against the SARS judgement.

Simon Shares Sasol (JSE code: SOL) update was all about troubles with power, ports and rail. In other words SA infrastreucture. Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK), they spending R60million a month on diesel. US unemployment is the lowest since 1969 at 3.4%. Grey listing for South Africa. The Financial Action Task Force will announce their decision at their 24 February meeting. A paradigm shift is happening AI has suddenly landed and it's going to be wild. I rate it with some other major technological paradigm shifts; The personal computer in 1974 The internet in 1990 (yes we had dial up bulletin boards before then, but that wasn't internet). Smart phones with the iPhone in 2007 All were horrid when they launched. But now they drive humanity. Facebook getting their ads working AI after Apple locked them out. Search is changing and will Google be the new winner. We use Dali-E for images on JOL Chat GPT is great, but it is not accurate. That is actually a design feature, but this is only version 3.5 and already lots of people are using it for real world practical examples. How is it going to change investing and trading? I don't know but I know many, myself included, are trying things to see what works and what actually adds value.

Quick update, I buying Coronation (JSE code:CML) at ±3750c. View my portfolio ==>> www.SimonBrown.co.za

Simon Shares MPC Thursday (26 January) raised 0.25% and FOMC Wednesday (1 February) expected is 0.25%. Capco (JSE code: CCO) good trading update and dividend. Renergen* (JSE code: REN) proposing US ADRs with Nasdaq listing in time to raise last capital required for phase 2. Stocks losing money from load shedding All listed companies are mentioning load shedding in their updates. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP); "The Group's additional spend on diesel to operate generators across our Supermarkets RSA store base in order to trade uninterrupted during load shedding stages five and six amounted to R560 million for the period." For the six months ending 2 January 2022 operating profit was R5,113billion. So load shedding costing the group ±10% of operating profit? Astral (JSE code: ARL) selling chicken R2/kg below cost of production. "A large portion of the capital expenditure commitments amounting to R737 million, outlined during the F2022 results presentation, has been placed on hold given the current adverse market conditions. The Group has however committed funds towards backup electricity generation solutions to reduce the adverse impact of load shedding."

Simon Shares Renergen* (JSE code: REN) finally gets phase 1 helium flowing. ArcelorMittal (JSE code: ACL) update, everything they warned about went wrong. MPC Thursday (26 January) and FOMC Wednesday (1 February). Raising 0.25% each. Stocks making money from load shedding Reunert (JSE code: RLO). High voltage cables and circuit breakers. Mustek (JSE code: MST). Green energy division. Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR). Lights out need food. Mahube Infrastructure (JSE code: MHB). Wind and solar operations paying a dividend (DY ±13.5%) and trading below NAV. Kibo Energy (JSE code: KBO). Are they a going concern? They issued shares to pay a £19,635.44 invoice. This is well worth a listen, some important data points from @StefMarani that help understands the road ahead .. https://t.co/6CGNRd6QUe — Simon Brown (@SimonPB) January 24, 2023 @simonbrown_za ArcelorMittal SA horror update as the second half was loss making #investing #share #jse ♬ original sound - SimonBrown * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares Top40 is all about China. Economic data from China for 2022 released this week was weak, but better than expected. Which food retailer offers the best value? Food inflation is still high, 12.7% YonY for December. But likely peaked (good rains, diesel lower and reducing input costs) Preferred food retailer? Always Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP). But expensive, forward PE 19.5x Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK). Forward PE 20.5x and not as good as Shoprite. Woolies* (JSE code: WHL). Exited disaster that is Australia. Forward PE 15x and if they can also fix clothing, real winner. Spar (JSE code: SPP). CEO and chair exiting after bad press recently. Poland issues but forward PE 10x. * I hold ungeared positions.

Now for the tenth year in a row, we kick off the new year with a prediction show. Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown put their heads on the block with three wild and woolly predictions for the markets for 2023 followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead. Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year's predictions and you'll find the 2022 predictions show here.

I've been buying some Zeda on the JSE. - Here's why - A bit about the business - Risks - Possible target price

Oil below US$ 80, the first time this year. OPEC+ made no production changes. EU price cap on Russian oil. Done via insurance, but will it work and if it does will oil not move higher? Simon Shares Nampak (JSE code: NPK) results and book build. Worth a speculative punt after the rights issue is done? Solid Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) results and strong dividend. RMI becomes Outsurance on the JSE, code OUT. China zero-covid. Local GDP, better than expected. Worst ETFs of 2022 Position your portfolio for 2023

Simon Shares MPC upped rates 0.75% with more expected in the new year. Solid City Lodge* (JSE code: CLH) update with November occupancies at 60%. Rand below R17/US$ and more strength expected. Top40 sneaks green for the year after a rough ride. This is why we hold And don't panic Markets recover Chinese covid-19 cases hitting new records, by a long way. This has real implications (bad ones) for the global economy as the second largest is going to be struggling in 2023. Chinese covid cases since the start of the pandemic * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares Renergen* (JSE code: REN) did a small capital raise and the market not liking after they said earlier in November they wouldn't do one. Cilo Cybin will not be listed on the JSE. They planned to raise R500million but only got R20.5million. Those who applied will be refunded. Local October CPI was 7.6%, up from 7.5% and vs. an expected 7.4%. Expect MPC to do 0.75% and two 0.25% next taking prime to 11%. Locally 2022 has not been all horror It feels really bad but the JSE has had a fair year with sen decent winners as the two images below show. JSE Top40 stocks year-to-date. (winners) JSE Top40 stocks year-to-date. (losers)

Binance buys FTX. No, they walk away. FTX goes bust. Keep your coins in a hardware wallet, not on the blockchain unless you trading it. I use a Ledger Nano S Plus. What's the future for crypto with another exchange hitting the wall? Simon Shares Results wrap; Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) Stor-Age* (JSE code: SSS) Ninety One (JSE code: N91) Transaction Capital (JSE code: TCP) * I hold ungeared positions.

So you bought a stock and it's done good and you're making money, maybe even lots of it. Now what? First, why did you buy it? That'll often help you decide when to sell. Second, is it still going up? Have a line in the sand, using charts, at which you sell. Third, is the news still all good? Bad news means to sell. Simon Shares US inflation due Thursday, expected is 7.9%. Binance buys FTX Time for gold? Murray & Roberts (JSE code: MUR) sell Clough for very little but get rid of a lot of inter-company debt. Leisure stocks looking good, especially the Sun International* (JSE code: SUI) chart. "However, due to the immense interest from the public, as well as international investors to date, we decided to extend the period by 2 more weeks. This will allow for the investors that missed the deadline, to be part of this amazing opportunity to own shares in Cilo Cybin Holdings.". Not a good sign. Elon Musk sells Tesla (Nasdaq code: TSLA) shares worth US$4billion after saying in April he would sell no more. But this should be enough to keep Twitter afloat for the next year. Meta (Nasdaq code: META) to fire 11,000 workers, about 13% of the workforce. * I hold ungeared positions.

After the results, are any FAANGs worth buying? FAANGs, a mixed bag with Meta (NASDAQ code: META) the biggest loser. Is it worth buying or what of the other FAANGs? Apple (NASDAQ share code: AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ code: AMZN) would be my picks. Why buy the losers? Simon Shares RMI, I got confused between RMI and RMH last week. Former is becoming Outsurance. Capital & Counties (JSE code: CCO) trading update shows strong leasing activity at Covenant Garden. Octodec (JSE code: OCT) results, discout to NAV +50%, dividend yield ±14%. Sasol (JSE code: SOL) convertible bond issue essential a back door right issue. Bonds expire in five years and convert into Sasol shares at US$20.3863. RSA Retail Savings bonds now offer 11.5% fixed for five years.

fff Go where the money is The Fini15 (JSE code: STXFIN*) is the only green index so far in 2022 and the strongest bank YTD? Absa (JSE code: ABG). Simon takes us through the journey of finding the strongest sectors and then the strongest shares to find a trade where the money is. Simon Shares Niche JSE listed property stocks, there are a bunch of them and they're mostly looking good. Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR) results are back at pre-pandemic levels. MTBPS Buy triggers on Nasdaq and S&P500 My lazy system has triggered buys on both S&P500 and Nasdaq. A close above last night's close and I'll be long pic.twitter.com/8HAisLdPZr — Simon Brown (@SimonPB) October 26, 2022 * I hold ungeared positions.

Murray & Roberts (JSE code: MUR) horror update. "working capital requirements are especially acute" "financial results for the six months period ending 31 December 2022, to be at least 100% down" This is not South Africa at all, it's Australia and the US. We've seen Wilson Bayly (JSE code: WBO) walk away from their Australian operations. Low margins and bankers not keen on bonding projects are going to crunch this industry globally. I would suggest Aveng (JSE code: AEG) is not immune either. The only time this industry really made money was in the run-up to the world cup, and they were colluding to get operating margins of +5%. So really this is a bust industry. That all said, decent results from Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) while we wait for Balwin (JSE code: BWN). Simon Shares MTN (JSE code: MTN) ditches Telkom (JSE code: TKG) over their Rain talks. Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results. Not bad but the market hated selling the stock down 9.3%. Is the issue valuation? Forward PE is ±29c vs. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) is on ±21x. Combined Motor Holdings* (JSE code: CMH) has great results driven by car rentals surging. But it going to be tough going from here. UK inflation returns to a 40-year high of 10.1%.

Simon Shares Remgro (JSE code: REM) plans to unbundle its stake in Grindrod (JSE code: GND). There were ideas that maybe Remgro would take out Grindrod, but the unbundling is going in a different direction and Remgro unbundles shares they don't want. Remember also that after the unbundling expect weakness in the Grindrod share price for a few weeks. They've held them since 2011 and hold a 24.81% stake For every 100 Remgro you'll receive 30.70841 Grindrod shares. Last day to trade (LDT) is 11 October 2022. You'll receive them with a base cost that Remgro paid, that value is still to be determined. Barloworld (JSE code: BAW) trading update is not bad. The big news is that they plan to list Avis by year-end. Tiger Brands (JSE code: TBS) trading update was solid off a low base. The chart looks bullish as it rose +10% on Monday after the update. Chart looking decent and a potential delisting target? The UK is an absolute mess. Here the UK 5, 10 & 30 year bonds for September .(with correct carts) . Just September pic.twitter.com/hMj5yP65bC — Simon Brown (@SimonPB) September 28, 2022 Rampant Dollar The US$ Index (code: DXY) is at twenty-year highs and within a few percent taking out the highs from the early 2000s and heading back to levels last seen in the mid-1980s. The reasons are simple and two-fold; The world is scared and fear sees investors rushing to the safety of the US$. Rising rates in the US now see the US ten-year treasury bills trading around 4%, the highest level in over a decade. So investors can flee to the US$ and buy 10-year bills for a ±4% return. Importantly this is hitting every currency in the world. Has earnings implications for US companies selling products offshore as those profits are now lower due to US strength. When does the strength stop? In the short-term a pullback is likely. But as long as fears remain the strength will continue and could continue well into next year. What to do? Don't panic. Consider some JSE listed currency ETFs. Continue with your offshoring strategy. The tables have turned. Emerging markets are much more resilient against the US Dollar than the rest of the G10. Year-to-date, the Dollar has risen a stunning 15% against the G10 (black), but only 5% against emerging markets (blue). EM is the new standard bearer for stability... pic.twitter.com/ToaQvQB9DS — Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) September 27, 2022

hh Simon Shares FedEx (NYSE code: FDX) spooks the market by withdrawing guidance and saying demand is collapsing. Thungela Resources (JSE code TGA) went ex-dividend to 6000c. Wilson Bayly (JSE code: WBO) is letting their Australian operations go bust, not giving any more financial assistance. Has inflation peaked? Local inflation down at 7.6% for August from 7.8%. US August inflation at 8.3% from 8.5%. UK August 9.9% from 10.1%. EU 10.1% up from 9.8%. Europe and UK still have a winter of energy crisis to contend with. US and local looks to have topped, but energy/petrol still needs watching. Food inflation remains high and remains a risk. A recession will dampen demand and help inflation lower. Transport costs are down. BUT, what of interest rates? The problem is getting back to target. Locally 3%-6% US 2% Rate increases still coming, likely into the new year before pausing. Then the long wait for inflation to get to target (or near) before rates start coming down. In the US this is at best 2024 but probably 2025. Locally rates may start moving lower in early 2024.

Simon Shares Trading Trading in the Zone – Mark Douglas (detailed review) Trend Following – Michael Covel (detailed review) Reminiscences of a Stock Operator – Edwin Lefevre Market Wizards - Jack Schwager The Complete Turtle Trader: How 23 Novice Investors Became Overnight Millionaires - Michael Covel Investing The Little Book of Common Sense Investing - John C. Bogle One up on Wall Street – Peter Lynch (detailed review) Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits – Phil Fisher (detailed review) Effective Investor – Franco Busetti The Little Book that Beats the Market - Joel Greenblatt General Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman Fooled by Randomness - Nassim Taleb

Simon Shares Anthony Clark on small caps Purity baby powder products were recalled by TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) due to traces of asbestos. PSG (JSE code: PSG) unbundling effective at close on Tuesday. Holders at the close will receive 3.87 PSG Konsult (JSE code: KST) 1.82 Curro (JSE code: COH) 0.12 Kaap Agri (JSE code: KAL) 1.04 CA Sales (JSE code: CAA) 1.02 Stadio (JSE code: SDO) The bear and bull case for investing in Shoprite Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) results saw the stock down 7.5%. Let's dig into what the market maybe didn't like. Only 10% earnings growth? With one week less and the 2021 riots in the numbers, decent albeit not knock the lights out. Only 600c dividend for the full year? Very much in line with the average. Expensive on PE of over 20x? Always is, but mid-range is about 15% lower. So yes, maybe a little more than usual? Opening 275 new stores? Cost and are they cannibalising their other stores? RSA operating margin 6.8%? The top end of the long-term range, worries that it may move lower? But Shoprite remains one of the best food retailers globally and a core holding in my portfolio. I have bids in the market at around R170 which would put it on a PE closer to the mid-range from the last decade. Sixty60 grew 150% and remains the absolute market leader in the grocery delivery space. Checkers Xtra Savings has 24.7m members and it turning into a bank account. * I hold ungeared positions. Sold my Murray & Roberts (JSE code: MUR) Murray & Roberts weekly chart Not a lekker chart, I've held for a while, but am now out #JSE pic.twitter.com/BKKP4HOLhr — Simon Brown (@SimonPB) September 4, 2022

Simon Shares Save R500k with a deposit. ETF closing prices are an absolute mess. Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) results see them coming back to earth after a pandemic boost. Education stocks all published results. ADvTECH* (JSE code: ADH) is my pick, but all showing student growth and cash generation. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) gets permission to turn their money market account into a bank account. Grindrod (JSE code: GND) currently runs the service for Shoprite and African Bank is buying Grindrod Bank. Walmart (NYSE code: WMT) is set to make an offer to the Massmart (JSE code: MSM) minorities for the remaining 47% at 6800c. Netflix (Nasdaq code: NFLX) plans to price its ad-supported plan at $7-to-$9 per month with about 4 minutes of adverts per hour. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) back at 203c, always be very careful of casing a news story (the Asia deal announced last week with very few details). Tsogo Sun Hotels (JSE code: TGO) changes its name on 7 September. They will become Southern Sun Limited (JSE code: SSU). UK inflation, Goldman Sachs now saying 22% is possible next year. Sun International* (JSE code: SUI) strong results. Consumers under pressure shouldn't hurt too much as they mostly target higher LSMs and they paid the first dividend (88c) since 2016. Currently, ±3200c is resistance. Greylisting Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Cracking down on money laundering and funding terrorism. Greylisting can reduce a country's capital flows by as much as 7.6%, according to an IMF working paper. Cabinet has approved a raft of new amendment bills but leaving it late, very late. Our deadline is September/October after being put on the watch list last year. The important questions; Will we get greylisted? What happens if we do? If greylisted, how do we get off the list? * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares Nasdaq (650 points), S&P500 (80 points) & Euro Stoxx50 (22 points) trades all closed. FTSE100 still going currently +100 points. Old Mutual BEE deal, will go into details, but it only closes in late October so no rush. Spur (JSE code: SUR) looking very good. PE ±15x and DY ±5% From the Spur earnings call "And we know that only 18% of the South African adult population represents 80% of economically viable consumer segment." Revenue at record with space to get margins back to pre-pandemic levels. Net income margin was ±5%, historically over 20%. [caption id="attachment_36416" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Spur; revenue, net income, NI margin[/caption]Afrimat (JSE code: AFT) Gravenhage manganese mine deal failing due to the Water Use License being materially different. They raised ±R650million last month. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) does a deal in Asia. Kap Industrials (JSE code: KAP) good results and great insights into other industries. Citi now says UK inflation to hit 18% early next year (last week they said 15%). Sasol (JSE code: SOL) pays a dividend, 1470c. Sasol: To answer a separate Q: The EBIT profit split is: •Energy: 58% •Chemicals: 42% (Despite the high chemicals contribution, it is amazing to see how closely Sasol's profit still conforms to the old back-of-a-matchbox calc of 5% of the Rand oil price.) — Karin Richards (@Richards_Karin) August 23, 2022 * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares BHP Group* (JSE code: BHG) results, have we peaked? Absa (JSE code: ABG) results, but maybe the ore important point of the results is their expectation that prime will hit 11% early in 2023. Chip shortage seems to be easing. Nasdaq is in a bull market, +20% off mid-June lows. Brent oil falling. Current petrol price reduction is 260c for September. UK inflation is 10.1% for July. Charles Savage tells us his fav ETFs Rochelle Writes, pay down debt or save more with high rates. Thungela resources (JSE code: TGA) still a buy? R60 dividend, 40% forward DY HEPS 6723c, forward PE 2.5x Mis-priced at listing, unbundling often cause this to happen. Ukraine's war gave it new legs. Risks Coal price Rand strength Ukraine war Transnet * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares Renergen* (JSE code: REN) the Central Energy Fund has successfully completed their due diligence on the R1billion, final approval is still required. Mpact (JSE code: MPT) results. US jobs data and unemployment continue to belie the recession talk. US inflation for July was 8.5%, a good number. A gallon of gas has fallen below $4 in the U.S. for the first time since March. Credit Suisse has lowered its 2023 UK GDP forecast to -0.6% from 0.5%; expects the UK to enter a recession from Q4 2022 until Q3 2023. Elon Musk sold $6.9-billion (R14.5-billion) of his shares in Tesla (Nasdaq code: TSLA) – his largest sale yet – saying he may need the cash if he has to buy Twitter (NYSE code: TWTR). Embrace the risk Investing is about risk Without risk, there is no reward Without risk, you are saving But the risk needs to be reasonable and the returns realistic * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares Massmart (JSE code: MSM) update, retail margins are being squeezed, the exception is clothing retail. Thungela Resources (JSE code: TGA) very strong trading update. JSE (JSE code: JSE) results, strong. Nancy Pelosi lands in Taiwan and markets don't really care and China will complain - but this is not leading to war. Uber (NYSE code: UBER) finally hits cash flow positive. OPEC+ 100,000 b/d output hike, expectations (hopes?) were for 4-5x that and the second smallest increase since 1986. Earn 11% with Retail Savings Bonds What's the only thing we control in markets The price we pay Everything else is beyond our control So use your one power carefully

Simon Shares New energy rules for South Africa. Who wins? Silverleaf Investments on Easy Equities. Know what you're buying. Food retailer updates, Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) winning. Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) bounding back and Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) struggling. Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) and Mr Price (JSE code: MRP) updates show consumers under pressure IMF upgrades SA GDP growth for 2022 to 2.3% up from 1.9% they expected in April. Results from Kumba Iron Ore (JSE code: KIO) and Anglo Platinum (JSE code: AMS) US data Wednesday and Thursday. Omnia (JSE code: OMN) was ex-div 800c on Wednesday and is now back in the longer-term channel. If you've been waiting to buy, now's your chance. * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares Local June inflation, 7.4%, MPC tomorrow. BHP Group* (JSE code: BHG) update, they are worried. ArcelorMittal South Africa (JSE code: ACL) trading update says global growth and recessions fears "present challenges for the outlook of commodities and steel demand in the next 12 to 18 months.". China's holdings of U.S. debt fell below $1 trillion for the first time since 2010 Alviva (JSE code: AVV) delisting at 2500c. Brent oil trade keeps on trucking, buy below $100 exit $113. Brent oil Nasdaq, triggered a buy, waiting for confirmation which is a close above 12,250 while 7 EMA remains above 21 EMA. Building resilient portfolios for tough markets Lithium & Battery Tech ETF Stats and data on 95 years of bear markets. How much longer? How much lower? * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares US June inflation 9.1%, and core inflation was also up a 5.7%! Still stage 4. Rand continues to weaken. Back backs between 4 July 2022 & 8 July 2022 Naspers JSE code: NPN) bought 659,095 shares at an average price of R2 648.3315/share for R1.745 billion (US$104.73 million). Prosus (JSE code: PRX) bought 6,240,339 PRX shares at an average price of €67.1361/share for €418.95 million (US$428.59 million). SARB now considers cryptocurrencies as a financial asset and will create regulations around them. This means cryptocurrencies can be listed on SA exchange platforms but the process will take 12-18 months. Dividends, love them but be careful. But we also need to remember a few important things about dividends. They can disappear as we saw in 2020. Even the most stable dividend payer can stop paying. REITs which have to pay them by law being a REIT structure) stopped paying because payment would see them fail their solvency tests. They are backwards-looking. A high dividend yield is certainly attractive, but is it because the price has been falling? Could this be a warning of a dividend cut? Cyclical stocks (think commodity stocks) pay massive dividends sometimes, then nothing for years. Boards can change the cover ratio. This is the percentage of HEPS they pay as dividends. In tough times they can cut them. As the company matures they pay more. Progressive dividends are the worst. The idea is that every year the dividend goes up a set percentage regardless of profits. A few local stocks have tried the idea, all have abandoned the idea. Cash dividend vs. script dividend. I'll usually take the script. Reg28, proposed a two-pot system Sam Beckbessinger: My fav ETFs

Simon Shares Still stage 6. Rand continues to weaken. Naspers (JSE code: NPN) and Prosus (JSE code: PRX) both are holding well after the hard run the previous Monday on results and buy-back news. Resources under pressure, all of them. Supply chains adjusting Just in time is now just in case Higher inventories Higher costs More localisation Upcoming events; 13 July ~ To short or not to short with Markets.com 14 July ~ JSE Power Hour: Building a resilient portfolio for tough markets

Simon Shares Episode #500. Huge thanks to all, I go into some background about the show. Where and how it started, lessons learnt and more. Stage 6, the Rand lost 30c. Sun International* (JSE code: SUI) update for five months to 31 May 2022 shows they are nearly back at pre-pandemic revenue and this while we still had some restrictions and fewer international travellers. Naspers (JSE code: NPN) / Prosus (JSE code: PRX) results. Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) is 125% of profits. The other businesses are all loss-making and in tough markets. They plan to sell down Tencent and buy back Prosus shares, but the discount to NAV remains around 50%, even after a massive move on the announcement. Grindrod (JSE code: GND) good update and share has been flying. This remains a very cyclical business and right now the cycle is paying off. Invicta (JSE code: IVT) saw strong results albeit some accounting points improved them a bunch. JSE (JSE code: JSE) trading update is surprisingly strong with HEPS expected +24%-32% for six months ending June. * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares Thungela (JSE code: TGA). Coal prices doing great, production is good but rail is the problem but HEPS is expected at 5800c. If we double for the full year we can expect ±R116 and a dividend of ±R100? Stor-Age* (JSE code: SSS) results are not exciting but steady. Omnia (JSE code: OMN) results were really strong, another special dividend and good future prospects. Orion Minerals (JSE code: ORN) raises money to get their Prieska up and running. Expected to take some 19 months. Amazon prime coming to South Africa next year. It will seriously challenge Takealot, owned by Naspers (JSE code: NPN)). City Lodge* (JSE code: CLH) trading update show them cash flow positive with occupancies back in profit. * I hold ungeared positions. Crypto in trouble Not an inflation hedge nor a store of value. Just another risk asset. The problem is as QE ends and rates rise, will it still see a strong inflow of money? I think not. It's not the end crypto, but new highs could be some way off.