When the Facts Change

How does Aotearoa stop relying so heavily on agriculture to prop up our economy? Online tax and accounting service Hnry just raised $35m to grow its software on-demand service across the globe. Bernard Hickey talks with AirTree partner Jackie Vullinghs about how venture capitalists are funding Aotearoa’s fastest growing, least-polluting and highest-wage export growth sector. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Parts of the nation's capital have turned into a wasteland of red stickers, and 'for lease' signs. WellingtonNZ CEO John Allen has been given the challenge of breathing new life into the city's economy, businesses, and image. He talks to Bernard about housing and hotel shortages, sewerage on the streets, a movie industry on the brink of collapse, and all the other challenges facing Te Whanganui-a-Tara in the coming decade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Wellington has a new mayor determined to shake things up. At the beginning of the year, Tory Whanau was a mayoral candidate pitching her ambitious vision for the future of Wellington city. Now, she sits in the top spot and is tasked with turning that vision into a reality. She talks with Bernard, exactly one year on from when they last spoke on the podcast, to discuss economics, housing, and who she would be nervous about becoming the next transport minister. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In a three-episode miniseries over summer Bernard breaks down the quotes from 2022 that changed everything... This episode, Elon Musk confidently strides into Twitter HQ to claim his new seat as CEO holding... A sink? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In a three-episode miniseries over summer Bernard breaks down the quotes from 2022 that changed everything... This episode, Jacinda Ardern blames a "wicked perfect storm" for the cost of living crisis that swept over the entire country. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In a three-episode miniseries over summer Bernard breaks down the quotes from 2022 that changed everything... This episode, Adrian Orr tells New Zealanders to "cool their jets", signalling a dark storm cloud set to loom over the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Well that took a turn, didn't it? With a war in Ukraine, supply chain mayhem and a deadly disease tearing through the workforce, this year was one for the history books. Bernard is joined by Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr to discuss the previous year, increasing interest rates and what it all means for 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Why is it that women still earn less than men across many industries in New Zealand? Economist Isabelle Sim is using groundbreaking research to uncover why the stubbornly high pay gap really exists. She talks with Bernard about how other countries achieve pay equity, working mums, and why transparency is the best way forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Treasury has just published a government mandated report on the overall wellbeing of our country. Typically, a country's success would be measured by GDP, employment rates, and net debt, but this report aims to redefine how New Zealand measures growth. Tim Ng from the Treasury talks with Bernard about how this shifting of the goalposts might affect the future of political investment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We hear a lot about young people struggling with housing affordability, but much less is spoken of how the housing crisis will impact pensioners. A new report shows we're at serious risk of doubling the number of retirees facing rent and mortgage stress by 2048. While the debate around who should get NZ Superannuation and how much they should get has been mostly frozen in time since the late 1990s, the current landscape means the debate has now changed. Retirement Commissioner Jane Wrightson joins Bernard Hickey to discuss how we can keep elderly renters and those still with mortgages out of poverty, what this could mean for NZ Superannuation eligibility and what will happen if nothing changes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

While billionaires build their bunkers in Queenstown, Julie Scott, CEO of the Community Housing Trust is building affordable homes with profits made by new suburb developers. She tells Bernard all about how inclusionary rezoning can be used to make the rapidly expanding region affordable for locals again Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Methane and nitrous oxide produced by cows and sheep remain the biggest barrier to Aotearoa meeting its emissions reduction goal. Science writer Melanie Newfield talks with Bernard to break down The Government's recent policy announcement and discuss why gassy livestock is so crucial to the country's climate solution. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The National Party's Deputy Leader has spoken out against The Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr, calling for an independent review if National are elected in 2023. Skyrocketing house prices and record-high inflation are being blamed on The Government's money printing scheme during the COVID-19 pandemic. Willis says an external review would answer the question - how can this be avoided in the future? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As central and local government battle for asset control, the lack of investment in infrastructure becomes an ever-growing issue. Bernard talks to former Auckland Deputy Mayor Penny Hulse about the tension between these forms of government and how it can be mended - what has ruptured in these relationships and why does it matter? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Aotearoa’s Government spends $2b a year on the environment, but where does that money go? Backed by his recently published report on our tracking of emissions, Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment Simon Upton dives into discussion with Bernard Hickey on the importance of collective clarity and knowledge in the measurement of our environmental spending. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Building developers and funders are scrambling to work out how much carbon dioxide is emitted or captured in a building’s construction and operation over its lifetime. Jasmax’s Carbon Research Lead, Paul Jurasovich, joins Bernard to map out the new world of carbon budgeting for buildings (such as the five star green-rated Kiwibank corporate office in Auckland). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Professor Anthony Hoete is trying to solve some of the biggest housing problems in Te Ao Māori with new tools and technology. He talks with Bernard Hickey on This weeks When the Facts Change about using NFTs to bring together dispersed iwi land titles and engineered timber to turn iwi forests into homes that are carbon sinks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kiwibank has just produced its first sustainability report as a B Corp, paving the way for big organisations joining the ESG reporting movement. But what does a pass mark look like? How can the marking process be used to do better? CEO Steve Jurkovich joins Bernard in conversation to korero about what Kiwibank did to its climate emissions, how it measured pay equity and what can be done to help fund Māori housing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Private rentals owned by ‘Mum and Dad’ landlords are expensive and unstable, making it difficult for tenants and their tamariki to settle into their communities and schools. As renting becomes a long-term reality for more and more of us, is there a better way? In this episode, Bernard is joined by Helen O’Sullivan, CEO of Crockers Property Group, to talk about one possible solution, and what policy tweaks the government needs to make to help it grow. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's evident to those living in Aotearoa that doing so does not come cheap, but did you know our housing and rental affordability is the worst in the world? Treasury Chief Economist Dominick Stephens went hunting with a team of Government experts for the reasons why. Revealing the three key factors driving our housing market, Stephens deep dives into conversation with Bernard Hickey on how the combination of lower interest rates, land use restrictions and our tax system has caused such an explosion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The great battle for walkable cities that prioritise cyclists and pedestrians over cars has only just begun. In this battle, Waka Kotahi is a key player in deciding how this battle plays out. In this week's episode, Bernard Hickey talks to Waka Kotahi's urban mobile manager Kathryn King to find out how mode shift might be allowed, or made to happen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bernard Hickey dives deep into the demand and supply factors behind our endemic housing shortages with Kiwibank economist Jeremy Couchman, including what they might mean for house prices. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Reserve Bank Governor has just returned from the hottest and most important annual get together of central bankers at Jackson Hole in Wyoming. He found a bunch of Governors hunkered down and under attack because inflation blew past their targets this year. He talks exclusively to Bernard Hickey about what has changed permanently in the workings of the global economy that is slowing growth and increasing inflation, and why we should care here in Aotearoa. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Revenue Minister David Parker steered the government into a political minefield this week with his extension of GST to all KiwiSaver fees that was gone by lunchtime within a day. Bernard Hickey talks with tax expert and historian Terry Baucher about why this epic fail pales in comparison to another from 33 years ago when Labour’s David Caygill failed to introduce a Capital Gains Tax to match our ‘perfect’ GST and income tax systems. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The "official" economists in Wellington went hunting for the true culprit behind Aotearoa’s house prices and rents being the most expensive in the world – but perhaps the biggest culprit is the government itself. With Wellington gaslighting the councils, now the finger of blame may be turning back in its direction. In this week's episode, Bernard Hickey talks to Hamilton mayor Paula Southgate about the funding infrastructure and challenges, as well as why not enough land was opened up, to then be sold. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Electricity is something we can't live without at this stage in global growth – but with expensive renewable supply, how do users and the industry match the demand? In this week's episode, Bernard Hickey speaks with Octopus Energy's Margaret Cooney about possible solutions to shift away from expensive peaks, and how an obscure law change might unleash a surge of retail competition, all in the hopes of calming our collective low battery anxiety. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

If climate change projections make their way to Land Information Memorandums, owners of coastal properties may find themselves struggling to stay afloat long before waves start lapping at their door. Vulnerable properties will become uninsurable causing banks to withhold lending – suddenly passing on that slice of hot potato paradise will be near impossible. This week James Shaw joins Bernard Hickey to talk about the real meaning of climate change adaptation and who's responsible for funding infrastructure that will mitigate the effects of climate change. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With unemployment now having climbed to 3.3% within the industry, builders are now crying out for workers. With this ascent and historically driven as a mostly male-dominated field, they’re getting serious about hiring the other half of the population. Bernard Hickey talks with Kiwibank economist Mary Jo Vergara about a surprise rise in employment growth for women in construction. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Imagine living in a society where details about everyone’s earnings and taxes are publicly available. With a gender pay gap of just 4%, Norway has operated under this system of pay transparency since the 1800s and some argue it’s time for a similar approach in Aotearoa. Join Bernard Hickey as he talks to AUT Professor Gail Pacheco, who heads the NZ Work Research Institute, about whether pay transparency is the answer to help address our pay equity gaps for women, Māori and Pasifika. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Half-price bus and train fares are good, but wouldn’t completely free fares be even better? Bernard Hickey talks to transport and urban planning academic Jen McArthur about the economics and the politics of free public transport. He even discovers some positives that make the idea more attractive to the usual opponents. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Businesses, hospitals and the opposition are pleading for a loosening of migrant worker restrictions to ease the intense labour shortages that are forcing cancellations and jury-rigged services up and down the motu. Bernard Hickey sits down to interview Productivity Commission chair Ganesh Nana to find out if a migration surge would solve our productivity problem, and why any decision to pull the migration lever must also look to pull the infrastructure investment lever. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For decades we've been warned of major slumps that never happened, but the Reserve Bank's new chief economist says this time, it's different. With a history of central bank governors and finance ministers making similar predictions that never came to pass, listen as Bernard Hickey challenges Paul Conway's view that the housing market’s ever-upward tide may be turning. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Why do so few of our small businesses make the leap to become bigger, faster-growing engine rooms for economic growth and higher wages? Curiously, Aotearoa also has a long tail of older business owners that are comfortable bumbling along with sub-scale firms that would do better with bigger and more ambitious owners. This week Bernard Hickey talks to ABC Business Sales MD Chris Small about why so many business owners won’t jump up, or out, and why it’s holding back the nation as a whole. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The employment landscape currently favours workers, yet we’re still reluctant to ask for a pay rise and fear being sacked. Bernard Hickey is joined by AUT professor Jarrod Harr to examine how work culture, pay, conditions and the power relationships between employers and employees have been transformed by the pandemic and try to figure out why workers still feel insecure and what employers can do to combat the great resignation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s hitting food, petrol, rent, shipping and wages, but inflation hasn’t touched the housing market. Bernard is joined by Kiwibank economist Mary-Jo Vergara to unpack the surprisingly big and long spike of inflation that is cascading into every aspect of our day-to-day lives. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bernard Hickey (When The Facts Change; parliament studio) and Toby Manhire (Gone By Lunchtime; Auckland studio) join forces for a budget reaction crossover special. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Inflation has become the thief in our wallets for the first time in a generation and there are plenty of culprits to blame. The Ukraine War, supply chain disruptions and US$10t of money printing are the first and most obvious cabs off the rank, but there's a new and more insidious source of inflation developing: automatic inflation. These annual CPI-linked price increases from a range of companies, utilities, government departments and regulated services are fine when inflation is "normal" and stable around 2%, but this year’s 6% increases are turning into a nasty feedback loop of inflationary pressure that will hurt those on the lowest disposable incomes the hardest. Bernard Hickey goes on the hunt for these inflation robots in this last episode of this season of When The Facts Change. He asks Finance Minister Grant Robertson whether the likes of Chorus should lift its prices in line with inflation and finds out from Paul Fuge, who manages Powerswitch.org.nz for Consumer NZ, how electricity companies are pushing through increased rates amid a confusing welter of regulatory changes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In December 2021 the government made changes to the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act that were designed to protect borrowers – but had consequences that saw reports of people being rejected for lending because they had takeaways too often, had too many streaming subscriptions, and even because they made regular investments. Earlier this month, the Minister for Commerce and Consumer Affairs, David Parker announced that the Government plans to make further changes to the CCCFA to help avoid these unintended outcomes. To understand where we are at with bank lending – and what the changes are designed to achieve – Jo Kupa, Kiwibank Mortgage Area Manager and Madeleine Allen, Mobile Mortgage Manager for Kiwibank joined The Spinoff’s Simon Day on the monthly bonus episode of When The Facts Change, brought to you by The Spinoff Podcast Network together with Kiwibank. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The government’s decision to cut fuel taxes this week highlights just how hard it is for politicians and voters to deal with short sharp shocks to the system. The ‘lizard brain’ part of our body politic has evolved to recoil from a petrol price shock, but this type of ‘thinking fast’ will need to be replaced with ‘thinking slow’ if we are to engineer a just transition to carbon zero. To find out more, Bernard talks to political scientist Bronwyn Hayward, environmental sociologist and public health researcher Kirsty Wild and economist Rosie Collins about how to replace thinking fast with thinking slow in our climate change actions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Back in 2002, supermarket chains Foodtown and Woolworths were allowed to combine into the group now known as Countdown. That consolidated the market down to a duopoly of the Australian-owned Countdown and the local cooperative of Foodstuffs, which owns Pak’nSave, New World and Four Square. A new report published by the Commerce Commission this week found the duopoly has used its market power to suck profits from either side of them in the grocery supply chain to make an estimated $430m a year in superprofits. To help unpack the report’s findings, Bernard talks to Sarah Balle, the founder of online grocery startup Supie.co.nz, about how hard it is going up against such a powerful duopoly, and Food and Grocery Council CEO Katherine Rich explains the fight supermarket suppliers face to be treated fairly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

New Zealand has a lot of small businesses, but relatively few of them expand into larger, more productive operations. Strawberry farms are a good example of this – many don’t invest in technology or systems to grow scale or profits, because it’s more profitable to simply wait for the farm’s land value to rise instead. But there are some interesting exceptions out there too. This week, Bernard talks to strawberry scientist Geoff Langford and Kiwibank business banking manager Wayne McEntee about the sorts of choices small businesses face around going up, going out, or just remaining stagnant. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Reserve Bank made its first big set piece decision of the year this week, releasing its monetary policy statement and raising the Official Cash Rate to 1.0%. So what does that mean for interest rates and house prices? In this week’s episode, Bernard Hickey asks Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr about the property price boom and wage inflation, and talks through the implications of the Reserve Bank’s decisions and outlook with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This year marks 50 years of the gay liberation movement in New Zealand – 50 years of fight, advocacy, celebration, progress and frustration in the Rainbow community’s struggle for equality and equity. In recognition of the Pride festival this month, Liz Knight, chief risk officer at Kiwibank and a proud member of the Rainbow community, and Jess Segal, senior manager of Leadership, and Diversity, Equity and Inclusion at Kiwibank, joined The Spinoff's Simon Day to discuss how far New Zealand has come – and the work that still needs to be done. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The price of aluminium has exploded in the last six months – so much so that Rio Tinto now wants to delay the closure of the aluminium smelter it owns at Tiwai Point beyond the planned end date of 2024. But this decision has thrown a big spanner into the works of climate change planners, investors and politicians, who had been working under the assumption that, come 2024, the 13% of the nation’s power supply that Tiwai Point uses would become available to help cities decarbonise their transport fleets. To find out more about what Tiwai Point staying would do for our climate plans, Bernard talks to climate change minister James Shaw and renewable energy expert Rebecca Peer. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Building a light rail line between Auckland’s CBD and the airport sounds like a good thing for the climate and reducing transport emissions. But the new plan to dig a long tunnel and lay a new railway line will actually generate an extra 400,000 tonnes of carbon emissions in its first 10 years, and take until 2040 before it starts being carbon negative. Still sound like a good idea? In this episode, Bernard Hickey talks to transport minister Michael Wood and economist Andrew Schoultz about how the government’s light rail plans fit with their climate targets, and how business and government planners are incorporating things like emissions forecasts, shadow carbon prices and discount rates into their planning. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Who or what is responsible for all the price inflation we’ve been seeing lately? And how do we know when we’re paying too much? Bernard Hickey talks to economic consultant Donal Curtin (previously of the New Zealand Commerce Commission) and Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All the political roads in housing and climate change lead to council chambers rather than parliament these days. This week, we look ahead to the high stakes local elections in October, which will decide whether much progress is made in the next decade to deal with our twin emergencies. Bernard talks to Wellington mayoral candidate Tory Whanau about how tough 2021 was in local politics, and the massive year ahead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Against all expectations a year ago, the global economy ended 2021 wracked by inflation and a debate about whether it’s transitory (and so can be ignored by central banks) or bedding in (and should be beaten down with higher interest rates). Bernard talks with Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr about what’s happening in our housing market and how well our exporters have done to offset the collapses of international tourism and education exports. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Natalie Vincent is the chief executive of Ngā Tangata Microfinance Trust, which works with New Zealanders experiencing financial hardship to provide them with small, safe, interest-free loans and mentorship to help them get – and stay – out of debt. The last two years have been the busiest in the organisation’s history, and December 2021 brought the most referrals for support yet. Natalie tells Simon Day how easy it can be for people to get into financial difficulty when one crisis puts them into debt, how hard it can be to get out and the importance of building financial capability and wellbeing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bernard Hickey is joined by Ockham founder Mark Todd to dig through a massive year for housing. They talk about the record high number of houses being built despite all sorts of supply chain grief and skills shortages, plus whether the ‘Townhouse Nation’ law changes rammed through Parliament will actually make a difference, or leave us regretting the prescriptive legislation in years to come. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices