When the Facts Change

The Reserve Bank cut the official cash rate this week for the first time since the beginning of Covid. Bernard talks with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr about how the central bank changed its mind when the facts changed, and what it means for mortgage rates and the housing market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kirsten Dodgen is a world-renowned dancer whose talent and dedication have taken her across the globe. Turning her hobby into a successful career has brought her financial independence and creative fulfilment. It’s also seen her perform with top music stars, appear on a hit Korean reality TV show, and build a social media following of over three million. But it hasn’t always been easy – Kirsten has had to lock into her vision and overcome the discouragement of others to achieve success. Join us as we explore Kirsten’s incredible journey and get to know the beautiful soul behind the dance moves. Stay tuned for our upcoming episodes each Monday: 5th August - TJ Perenara 12th August - Kirsten Dodgen 19th August - Jess Quinn 26th August - Taylor Roche 2nd September - Jess Hong 9th September - Dane & Stacey A Kiwibank series in collaboration with The Spinoff Podcast Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A heated debate about insulation standards lately has had both health and construction experts up in arms. It's only part, however, of a wider debate about how we approach climate change and how we make decisions about our homes. NZ Green Building Council CEO Andrew Eagles joins Bernard Hickey to pull back the GIB board and take a look at how to build, and heat, cheaper homes over the longer run. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

TJ Perenara is a rugby legend whose sporting career and status as the leading try scorer in Super Rugby are matched only by his iconic mullet. Beyond the field, TJ is a dedicated father, husband and passionate advocate for social equity – speaking boldly on issues like Māori fatherhood and pay transparency. If you’ve ever wondered what makes this Kiwi icon tick, then settle in to hear TJ Perenara as you’ve never heard him before. Stay tuned for our upcoming episodes each Monday: 5th August - TJ Perenara 12th August - Kirsten Dodgen 19th August - Jess Quinn 26th August - Taylor Roche 2nd September - Jess Hong 9th September - Dane & Stacey A Kiwibank series in collaboration with The Spinoff Podcast Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What happened to the world’s supply chains during and after the Covid-19 pandemic, and how much of the damage caused is permanent? New York Times business journalist and author of ‘How the World Ran Out of Everything’ Peter Goodman joins Bernard Hickey to explain the complex international pathways of manufacturing and transportation that bring products to our doorsteps, through the example of one fledgling American toy startup. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Aotearoa has never been wealthier, yet demand for food parcels is skyrocketing and the Government won’t extend help to food banks so they can cope. Bernard talks to Auckland City Missioner Helen Robinson about a surfeit of wealth at a time food banks are being defunded. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Softer-than-expected inflation figures this week suggest the inflation dragon - the one that savaged real wages and borrowing costs for the last three years - may have finally been shoved back in it's cave. Kiwibank's Mary Jo Vergara joins the podcast to discuss what that means going forward for interest rates in our housing-market-with-bits-tacked-on economy. Markets are now saying that the Reserve Bank could now cut the Official Cash Rate by the end of this year, but how many cuts can we hope for? Listen in to find out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Former PM and finance minister Sir Bill English is the intellectual driving force behind the new government’s plans for the country's biggest landlord. He tells Bernard why a full accounting of its running costs may prove to be too rich for the government. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bernard Hickey goes hunting for the Reserve Bank’s first rate cut in a discussion with Kiwibank economist Sabrina Delgado. It was supposed to be this year, especially now that the economy appears mired in a multi-dip recession with higher unemployment - but sticky local inflation has held the RBNZ back. Now, however, it is forecasting a rate cut in August 2025 at the earliest. Sabrina explains why she disagrees, why the central bank should be able to cut as early as November, and what that’ll mean for the housing market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After ten years at the helm of Transpower, chief executive Alison Andrew is stepping down. She reflects on a tumultuous decade of managing Aotearoa’s most important network, and why she considers being relatively unknown in the public arena as a mark of success. This interview was recorded shortly before a Transpower pylon collapsed in Northland on June 21st, causing widespread power outages in the region. The collapse was caused by contractors who failed to observe proper procedure while carrying out routine maintenance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is the Kiwi dream to own a "McMansion", a "shoebox" or something else entirely? Bernard talks with The Urban Advisory’s MD Greer O’Donnell about a major new survey of what type of homes we actually want. She says it may not be the quarter acre "pavlova paradise" still assumed by many voters and politicians when they’re deciding on what should be be built and where. If you'd like to take part in The Urban Advisory's housing survey, click here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bernard revisits the most revolutionary era in our political economy in conversation with Toby Manhire. Together they discuss how much the Labour Government of 1984 to 1989, portrayed in The Spinoff's new hit podcast series Juggernaut, created our modern economy, for good and ill. Listen to Juggernaut here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We thought you might like a wee taster of our brand new #1 series, Juggernaut: The Story of the Fourth Labour Government, hosted by Toby Manhire. Click here to follow Juggernaut so you get every episode as soon as it's released! 1. I love you, Mr Lange Fuelled by brandy and fury, Sir Rob Muldoon calls a snap election, sparking a 1984 campaign of contrasts – the menacing, protectionist National PM against the fresh, upbeat Labour leader, David Lange. The pretext for the election is the decision by Marilyn Waring, a young, gay MP, to back an anti-nuclear bill and quit the National caucus, prompting an earful from Muldoon. Lange, meanwhile, is joined at the hip by a hungry would-be finance minister, Roger Douglas. They are about to confront a profound crisis, and launch a revolution. Includes previously unheard interviews with David Lange from the 84 campaign trail, and new and exclusive interviews with Marilyn Waring, Roger Douglas, Geoffrey Palmer, Richard Prebble, Peter Harris, Margaret Wilson, Bob Harvey and Gary McCormick. Click here for full details of archive material used in this series Juggernaut was made with the support of NZ On Air. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Reserve Bank Chief Economist Paul Conway joins Bernard in the immediate aftermath of a surprisingly hawkish monetary policy statement, and just before the Budget. Together they discuss sources of inflation, why interest rates are staying high for longer than anyone expected, and whether the blunt instrument of the official cash rate can do anything about this extra-sticky inflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bernard Hickey goes deep into the mechanics of the electricity distribution system to find out what really happened during a cold snap in May that almost caused a national energy crisis. He talks to Electric Kiwi CEO Luke Blincoe about how to solve the dry winter and cold snap problem without spending billions of dollars on new generation and lines. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nicola Willis has delivered tax cuts in her first budget, largely as promised. But has the coalition government managed to square the circle of relieving cost of living pressures while avoiding the quicksand of encouraging inflation? In a special crossover episode of Gone By Lunchtime meets When the Facts Change, Toby Manhire quizzes Bernard Hickey on all that, plus: Is Willis right to say the tax cuts are not paid for by borrowing, and can she reasonably blame Labour for the bleak fiscal outlook? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Reserve Bank warned this week of high interest rates and high inflation for even longer, with sticky rental, rates and insurance inflation all partly to blame. Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr joins Bernard Hickey to discuss the how blunt our central bank's main monetary policy tool can be, and the developing opinion that high interest rates actually increase, rather than decrease, the inflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Redclyffe substation near Napier flooded during Cyclone Gabrielle and turning it off turned off the power for much of Hawkes Bay and Tairāwhiti. Transpower has fixed it for now, but has faced a big decision: should it rebuild it where it is now, next to a stream? Or start again on higher ground? The choice tells us a lot about how to think about our climate future. Bernard Hickey talks about that decision with Transpower’s executive general manager grid delivery, Mark Ryall. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Government has repealed various smokefree measures to ensure it keeps collecting $1.2 billion a year in tobacco taxes, in order to pay for tax cuts already being delivered to landlords. But an economic analysis done by Otago University's public health department has found keeping the smokefree measures would have been of benefit not only for public health, but also for the economy. The university's Professor Nick Wilson joins Bernard to discuss the fascinating figures resulting from that research. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Spinoff has just launched a brand new series called Behind the Story, where site editor Madeleine Chapman sits down with a staff writer or contributor to gain more insight about a big story on The Spinoff from the week. We thought you might like to check out the first episode, and if you enjoy it please follow it wherever you get your podcasts! On Friday, Bulletin editor Anna Rawhiti-Connell sent her final newsletter, and took the opportunity to share what she’s learned about the news over two years of curating it for thousands of New Zealanders. Earlier in the week, she’d seen reports of Auckland dog owners discarding their pets’ turds on the ground after Auckland Council removed bins across the city. And so, the column “If you love a dog, you must also love disposing of its shit” was born. Anna joins Madeleine Chapman to talk about the power journalists have when framing a story and how to find the middle ground between boring and sensational. For The Spinoff editor’s thoughts on the week that was, as well as a handpicked collection of the week’s best reads, subscribe to The Weekend with Madeleine Chapman newsletter at thespinoff.co.nz/newsletters Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bernard Hickey talks with property academic Deborah Levy about her research into the changes in the way bach owners feel about their holiday homes. Where once the bach was the centrepiece of 'the kiwi dream’, a place for friends and families to gather, relax and create memories, they have now become a financialised asset to be added to the portfolio of the increasingly wealthy few. What's behind this change? What insights can this research give into the rest of our dysfunctional national property market? Listen in to find out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Reserve Bank wants to know how the public feels about a potential new type of digital cash. This digital currency would be exchangeable one-for-one with ‘old’ forms of bank-issued electronic money and ye olde paper cash and metal coins, but would not outright replace the physical stuff. RBNZ’s Head of Money and Cash Ian Woolford joins Bernard to discuss what’s different with this new digital cash, what problems it could solve and how it might open up a whole new front in bank competition. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr joins Bernard to discuss and dissect the trajectory of inflation and interest rates, both here in Aotearoa and around the globe. Inflation is stickier than expected and interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer, but what does that mean for the kiwi dollar? How do US Fed chair Jerome Powell's recent comments affect us? And what is going on with the price of gold? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kiwibank economist Sabrina Delgado joins Bernard to discuss the ways inflation affects various groups in Aotearoa. From homeowners and renters to beneficiaries and pensioners, they explore how inflation impacts everyone differently, and reveal who is being hit hardest by the current spike. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Auckland Airport wants to put up its landing charges to help pay for a multibillion dollar revamp of its terminals. Its biggest customer, Air NZ, is complaining that the airport is over-charging. So who is right? What is fair? And what happens when two effective monopolies butt heads? Bernard Hickey talks to Auckland Airport CEO Carrie Hurihanganui about the dispute, how the Commerce Commission factors in, and what the airport is planning to mitigate its long-term impact on the changing climate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The evidence is clear: it's good for our pockets and for the planet, so what's stopping families and businesses from going electric? How do we address the electrification knowledge gap and other barriers that stand in the way of adopting cleaner, more affordable energy both as individuals and organisations? Bernard Hickey talks to Rewiring Aotearoa CEO Mike Casey about their recent report 'Electric Homes', and how NZ is one of the first countries to reach the "electrification tipping point". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With the majority of Aotearoa struggling to meet basic needs, philanthropic funding is more important than ever. Cheryl Spain, executive director of The Gift Trust, joins Bernard Hickey to explain why philanthropic giving needs to become part of New Zealand culture, where funding should be directed within an organisation for maximum effectiveness and how to navigate the complications that come with financial giving. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In a special edition of When The Facts Change, Bernard Hickey talks with The Spinoff’s Wellington editor Joel MacManus about the historic victory for YIMBYs in last week’s District Plan votes by the Wellington City Council. Who knew that town planning could be so important? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transpower is taking a new approach to handling the massive increase in demand for electricity. Instead of building bigger power pylons (and a lot more of them), they want to reduce demand for electricity in the first place. Bernard Hickey is joined by Transpower’s John Clarke to discuss the state-owned power transmission company's recent RFP for non-transmission solutions; novel ideas such as buying demand reduction through virtual grids and batteries. And ground zero for their electrical innovations? Te Waipounamu, the South Island. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kiwibank chief executive Steve Jurkovich joins Bernard Hickey to discuss how businesses and consumers are feeling early in 2024, why an RBNZ rate hike last week would not have helped and how banks are thinking about the challenges of climate risk and cybersecurity. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Te Pūtea Matua governor Adrian Orr joins Bernard to discuss the bank’s decision to hold the official cash rate at 5.5%, rather than hiking it further in an attempt to control rampant inflation (which is still roughly double where the RBNZ wants it). Listen in to hear the governor's reasoning behind the cash rate hold, his thoughts on New Zealand's record net migration and whether the government's decision to remove the bank's inflation/unemployment dual mandate earlier in the year has made any meaningful difference. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

World-class athlete Sarah Hirini has spent nearly a decade as captain of the national women’s sevens team. Through the course of her career she’s clocked up Olympic gold and silver medals, a couple of Rugby World Cup wins and in 2019 was made a member of the New Zealand Order of Merit. She was also winner of the NZ Sports Leadership award at last year’s Halberg Awards. There’s no doubt Sarah is truly inspirational, but what sets her apart is her leadership style – nuanced, caring, and focused on lifting up others in their own leadership journey. Listen to our final episode for season two of This is Kiwi to find out how this champion athlete turned her passion for rugby into a pathway for personal growth and empowerment for others. This episode was recorded in November, 2023 A Kiwibank series in collaboration with The Spinoff Podcast Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Christopher Luxon has described Aotearoa’s government finances as fragile, but the most qualified folks in financial markets don’t see it that way. Bernard Hickey talks to S&P Global’s government ratings director Anthony Walker about just how fragile our government and local council finances actually are. According to Anthony, NZ’s AAA rating means international investors view NZ as a strong borrower with $120 billion worth of borrowing headroom to solve its infrastructure deficits. Yet the government still won’t borrow. Why not? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

At just 22 years old, Nico Porteous is one of New Zealand's most accomplished athletes. He first made his mark on Aotearoa sporting history at 16 when he became our youngest Olympic medalist, claiming bronze in the men's freeski halfpipe. In 2022 he soared even higher in Beijing, clinching an Olympic gold to add to his two X Games gold medals alongside being made a member of the New Zealand Order of Merit. Nico's accolades speak volumes, but beyond the medals there’s a depth of character and wisdom that belies his age. Nico joins Jane to discuss his journey to global success, how he navigates intense performance pressure and the values shaping his life beyond the slopes. Get ready for an inspiring conversation with a remarkable role model. Stay tuned for the final episode of this season: 26th February - Sarah Hirini on growth and leadership A Kiwibank series in collaboration with The Spinoff Podcast Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After releasing a paper earlier this week outlining her policy recommendations for the government, retirement commissioner Jane Wrightson joins Bernard Hickey to discuss the complex challenge of superannuation in Aotearoa. Why should the age of eligibility stay at 65? Which demographics would be adversely affected by a decision to raise it? And is it a problem that approximately 50,000 pensioners collect NZ Super while earning over $100,000 a year? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In sharing daily dad life with his social media following of nearly two million, Louis Davis challenges fatherhood stereotypes by being meaningfully present for his family. Join Louis as he sits down with Jane Yee and, through genuine humour and heartfelt anecdotes, offers an alternative narrative about the role and responsibilities of fathers. As he shares his wisdom on the beauty of whānau, the joys of parenthood and the importance of integrity, Louis' story serves as a poignant reminder of life's simple pleasures and the power of genuine connections. Stay tuned for our upcoming episodes each Monday: 19th February - Nico Porteous on the process of performance 26th February - Sarah Hirini on growth and leadership A Kiwibank series in collaboration with The Spinoff Podcast Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In order to limit global warming to 1.5ºC, and avoid the catastrophic effects brought on by further warming, every person on the planet must limit their personal carbon dioxide emissions to just two tonnes per year. The current annual emissions average for someone living in New Zealand? Over eight. Writer, consultant and climate justice campaigner Emily Mabin Sutton joins Bernard Hickey to help figure out how we can get our own carbon emissions under control. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kendall Flutey is on a mission to help create a better future for kids all over the world. As the founder of financial literacy software Banqer, Kendall is focusing her ambition for good in a bid to empower the next generation towards a future of financial wellbeing. Combining unbridled passion, a generous spirit and tenacious business acumen, Kendall is a force to be reckoned with in the entrepreneurial space. She joins Jane Yee to discuss what it means to be intentional in all areas of life and share wisdom from her journey that can benefit us all. Stay tuned for our upcoming episodes each Monday: 12th February - Louis Davis on modern fatherhood 19th February - Nico Porteous on the process of performance 26th February - Sarah Hirini on growth and leadership A Kiwibank series in collaboration with The Spinoff Podcast Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How do you measure the cost of the Auckland Anniversary floods and Cyclone Gabrielle? A year on from these catastrophic weather events, NZIER economist Roshen Kulwant joins Bernard Hickey to discuss which costs we're measuring, what we’ve learnt and what still needs to be done. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Te Aorere Pēwhairangi is a dynamic content creator dedicated to making te reo and te ao Māori accessible. After a promising rugby league career was cut short by injury, Te Aorere moved into translation work which led to TV presenting roles and a dedicated following on social media where he connects with hundreds of thousands. Te Aorere talks to Jane about his commitment to his people, including his campaign ‘Waewae the 35’ that raised $115,000 for Cyclone Gabrielle-stricken communities. Recently recognised as a local hero by Kiwibank, Te Aorere is on a mission to serve, inspire and make a meaningful impact in Aotearoa. Stay tuned for our upcoming episodes each Monday: 5th February - Kendall Flutey on focusing your ambition 12th February - Louis Davis on modern fatherhood 19th February - Nico Porteous on the process of performance 26th February - Sarah Hirini on growth and leadership A Kiwibank series in collaboration with The Spinoff Podcast Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Earlier this week the Reserve Bank of New Zealand proposed a new debt-to-income (DTI) ratio limit. Along with the 11-year-old loan-to-value ratio (LVR) limit, the RBNZ hopes these lending restrictions will help "limit the build-up of systemic financial risk" in our housing market. Bernard Hickey talks to Helen O’Sullivan, Valocity Global's CEO of Real Estate, to dig into the proposed policy, and whether LVRs have actually made the financial system safer over the last decade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What happens when you take on your trauma with the whole world watching? Jazz Thornton joins Jane Yee for a raw and entertaining kōrero between friends that exposes the reality of turning your pain into purpose in a very public way. The young mental health advocate and social media star speaks openly about the highs and lows of sharing her life through a lens and reveals what motivates her to show up for others every day, even as she continues to work through her own intense historic trauma. With an unwavering commitment to hope and demonstrating a resilience that is both remarkable and inspiring, this is Jazz Thornton as you’ve never heard her before. Stay tuned for our upcoming episodes each Monday: 29th January - Te Aorere Pēwhairangi on​ finding inspiration 5th February - Kendall Flutey on focusing your ambition 12th February - Louis Davis on modern fatherhood 19th February - Nico Porteous on the process of performance 26th February - Sarah Hirini on growth and leadership A Kiwibank series in collaboration with The Spinoff Podcast Network Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Aotearoa New Zealand is a rich and functional country, but it can’t seem to operate a safe and well-maintained water system. CEO of Water NZ Gillian Blythe tells Bernard Hickey exactly why that is, and what's needed to get our water infrastructure back on track. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the final of three summer mini episodes, Bernard Hickey a key moment from 2023 when the political economy in Aotearoa shifted on its axis in real time. Last up is the day the nation’s biggest insurer said Petone and many other low-lying suburbs around the motu would not be insurable in 30-50 years due to climate change. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the second of three summer mini episodes, Bernard Hickey a key moment from 2023 when the political economy in Aotearoa shifted on its axis in real time. Second up is the day the Climate Commission chair, Rod Carr, told the deniers and delayers of climate change action to get out of the way for the rest of us to take advantage of the opportunities for cheaper, healthier and safer lives. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the first of three summer mini episodes, Bernard Hickey a key moment from 2023 when the political economy in Aotearoa shifted on its axis in real time. First up is the day that Chris Hipkins declared the ‘end of story’ for a wealth or capital gains tax in New Zealand for at least the next decade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

National promised their first budget would expose 'fiscal vandalism' by the previous Labour government. Now that Bernard Hickey has had a chance to rifle through the numbers, he finds minimum substance to the claims. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

SUPERPOD is back! Hosted by Gone By Lunchtime's Toby Manhire and featuring Jane Yee and Alex Casey from The Real Pod, Duncan Greive from The Fold, Gone By Lunchtime's Annabelle Lee-Mather, Simon Pound from Business Is Boring, Bernard Hickey from When The Facts Change and The Spinoff Podcast Network's Te Aihe Butler and Samuel Robinson, SUPERPOD 2023 is the crossover to end all crossovers. From intense discussion of government policy to figuring out what the heck a skibidi toilet is, we celebrate the best and worst of what has been a rollercoaster year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

2023 has seen record-high net migration after a large dip during the height of Covid. Bernard Hickey talks with Kiwibank economist Mary-Jo Vergara about the economic effects of high migration on rents, inflation, interest rates and house prices. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To replace $700 million a year of revenues lost from a foreign buyers tax, the new coalition government is dumping the previous government's smoke free 2025 goal. This relaxing of policies will keep more people smoking for longer, costing thousands of lives per year and at least $10 billion is extra health costs and lost working hours. Bernard Hickey speaks with University of Otago public health researcher Andrew Waa about his analysis of the changes to smoke free, and finds out the true costs of reversing them. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices