The Real Investment Show Podcast

SEG-1: Monetary Policy & Yield Curve Control SEG-2: Proper Pricing-in of Risk SEG-3: The Fed Tells us How Things Should Be SEG-4: Pro Sports, COVID-19, & The Shrinking Odds of a V-shaped Recovery -------- RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts w Porfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA -------- Articles Mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-next-iteration-what-is-yield-curve-control/ https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-bulls-bears-square-off-at-the-line/ https://realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-rationalizing-high-valuations-wont-improve-outcomes/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/

SEG-1: Father's Day PSA; Retail Sales & The Problem w Percentages SEG-2: Candid Coffee; Portfolio Management as Markets Gyrate SEG-3: Will There Be a Second Wave? SEG-4: Adjusting to the New Realities of the CARES Act -------- RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP -------- Articles Mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-bulls-bears-square-off-at-the-line/ https://realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-rationalizing-high-valuations-wont-improve-outcomes/ Register for the next Candid Coffee: https://register.gotowebinar.com/rt/1959782027202558734?source=Ria+Website%22 Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/

RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts examines the roots of unrest, and why the self-proclaimed "republic" in downtown Seattle is doomed to fail without fiscally conservative constraints; the markets are not necessarily reflective of the economy. -------- Articles Mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-bulls-bears-square-off-at-the-line/ https://realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-rationalizing-high-valuations-wont-improve-outcomes/ https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts/status/1272842235416117253 Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/

SEG-1: Why is the Fed Boosting Bonds? SEG-2: The Speculative Excess on Wall Street SEG-3: The Republic of CHAZ vs Reality SEG-4: The Liquidity Strategies of the Fed -------- RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts -------- Articles Mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-bulls-bears-square-off-at-the-line/ https://realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-rationalizing-high-valuations-wont-improve-outcomes/ https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts/status/1272842235416117253 Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/

The bailouts in March of "failing" companies and ETF's benefited a special group of investors. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts is taking names. ---- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/

SEG-1: When Deficit Spending is Good SEG-2: Testing the Process of Re-Opening SEG-3: The Special Benefits of Financial Insiders (and who they are) SEG-4: The Perils of Margin Debt & Leverage -------- RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/

It pays to pay attention to bond behavior in troubled times. RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP, discuss the realities of the economy, what you can do, and what to avoid. -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/

Why was Fed Chairman Jerome Powell less-than forthcoming in his presser following this week's meeting of the FOMC? RIA Advisors Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA, discuss the forces that have shaped Chairman Powell's time in his position. -------- Articles Mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-... Pedro da Costa Interview: https://youtu.be/czAcqNIpuag Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/news...

SEG_1: Reality vs Fantasy Trades; Robinhood in Reverse-land SEG-2: #MoreStimulus - Do Not Forsake Bonds SEG-3: The Fine Line Between Trading & Investing SEG-4: What Do You Do With a Windfall? -------- RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/

SEG_1: Fed Meeting Summary; Psychics & Meteorologists vs Fed's Quarterly Previews SEG-2: No Surprises in Fed's Monthly Statement SEG-3: What the Job of The Fed Should Be SEG-4: Volleyball Ping Pong & Buying Bankrupt Company Stocks -------- RIA Advisors Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA -------- Articles Mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-feds-monetary-animal-house/ https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-its-time-to-take-on-defensive-positioning/ Pedro da Costa Interview: https://youtu.be/czAcqNIpuag Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/

What has happened to US Education since the Fedederal Gov't. took control? Same thing with Pensions & 401k's. RIA Advisors Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/

SEG_1: Market Commentary: The Ongoing Error at the BLS SEG-2: The US Pension Crisis SEG-3: Educational Declines, Pensions, and 401k's SEG-4: What Should Really Happen in Bankruptcy -------- RIA Advisors Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP -------- Articles Mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-feds-monetary-animal-house/ https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-its-time-to-take-on-defensive-positioning/ Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/

Lots of chatter about de-funding police agencies because folks don't like how they behave. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, exposes a whole other group of operators who rely on public funds to operate as a better target for de-funding. This will make you mad. Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/

SEG_1: Market Commentary: Dumb-money rally; smart-money biding time SEG-2: The Incredible, Disappearing Coronavirus: Hype vs Reality SEG-3: Forget De-funding Police: De-fund Big Banks SEG-4: How Capitalism is Broken on the Upper End -------- RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts -------- Articles Mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-its-time-to-take-on-defensive-positioning/ Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/

What drives the economy is full-time employment...but... RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts takes a critical look at how the Bureau of Labor Statistics comes up with the numbers it spouts. ----- Articles Mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/20-20-economic-projections-will-leave-everyone-disappointed/ Subscribe to our Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/

SEG-1: What Change is Desired/to be Achieved by Riots? SEG-2: What Drives an Economy is Confidence SEG-3: What Drives an Economy is Full-time Employment; Jobs Numbers Examined SEG-4: Speculative Fervor is Back -------- RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts contends expectations for a "V-shaped" recovers are likely to disappoint. ----- Articles Mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-bull-is-back-markets-charge-as-economy-lags-06-05-20/ https://realinvestmentadvice.com/20-20-economic-projections-will-leave-everyone-disappointed/ https://realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-rationalizing-high-valuations-wont-improve-outcomes/ Subscribe to our Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/

SEG-1: Market Commentary & Investors w Lizard Brains SEG-2: Being Counter-intuitive; Economic Cookies SEG-3: Richard's Chocolate Fantasies & Broccoli Reality SEG-4: The Simpson's Investment Portfolio; What SS Will Become -------- RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Certified Financial Planner, Danny Ratliff, CFP Get More Info & Commentary: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com

YELP! reports only 7% of restaurants have re-opened. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA examine the long term trend of GDP up to 2008, and conclude the Fed actually harmed the post-Crisis economy with its injections of liquidity. _________ Subscribe to our Newsletter at https://realinvestmentadvice.com Articles Mentioned: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/why-the-recovery-will-fall-short-of-forecasts/

Seg1: When Antifa gets pounded in the 'burbs; Seg-2: Michael Lebowitz on the Moral Hazard of the Federal Reserve; Seg-3: Yelp Survey: 7% of restaurants reopened; how long will it take? QE actually harms economy; Seg4: The Connection Between Debt & Lack of Economic Growth; ______________ RIA Advisors: Lance Roberts, CIO w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Get More Info & Commentary: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Articles Mentioned Today: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/why-the-recovery-will-fall-short-of-forecasts/ https://realinvestmentadvice.com/riots-across-america-are-about-more-than-george-floyd/

The Atlanta Fed has said Q2 GDP numbers will be in the range of -50%. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, running the math behind the claim, sets the context, and shows how the Fed gets to that number...and why it's bad.

Good News: COVID's off the Headlines, thanks to Civil Unrest; Market Commentary: Weak bounces off marginal, skewed Gov't. Economic Data; Why You Don't Steal a Rolex; Folex & Weddings; Candid Coffee Tease; Article Tease: How the Market recovers, post-COVID; Erosion of economic posterity b/c debt and demographics; COVID binge-watching favs: Friends, The Office; WSJ: Bond purchases lagging expectations: If Bond Money is smart money, what is it saying? Beware complex securities; Why You Don't Want the Military in the Streets;

The Media Mantra has been, 'Recessions are Bad, Corrections are Bad." RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, contends recessions and corrections, while painful, are a necessary part of a healthy economic cycle, which the Fed has prevented from occurring through its myriad interventions.

It's 1968 all over again; The Broken Window Fallacy; Are we looking at 50% decline in GDP? Spontaneous Riots w pre-positioned brick pallets; Riots in states w gun control; Pandemic revealed weakness in the economy; opportunity to make change, not repeat past policy mistakes; How Much Would You Pay for a Good Night's Sleep? Nothing new driving markets; not addressing real problems; Why investors think current market trend will never end; Over-bought market creates possibility of 5% correction; Media: Recession, correction is bad; Fed has prevented healthy market corrections.

The anger and frustration being shown following the brutal murder of George Floyd are the tip of the iceberg. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts draws out the root of our discontent...and it started long before George Floyd's fatal encounter in Minneapolis.

Summertime on Wall Street; COVID-case counts; wrestling with this longer than first expected; slower economic recovery; Atlanta Fed: 51% GDP Decline in Q2; Riots are About More than George Floyd; the rising divergence between the Have's and the Have-not's; every thing, every issue has a Group; we are a country divided; How the Media is missing the Bigger Point in George Floyd's death & Repercussions; Social Media, Censorship, and Freedoms of Speech: The Responsibility of Social Media; What we give up for convenience today may haunt us in a socialist future;

As we continue to assess the economic damage inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic, adjusting household budgets to the reality of our situation will be key to financial survival. RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP w Certified Financial Planner, Danny Ratliff, CFP, expound on household ratios, and what downsizing could look like for you.

Market Commentary; Economic effects of Pandemic; 42% of Layoffs will be permanent job losses; wages no longer "sticky;" CARES Act is here to stay; Math Can Save Your Household: Ratio's & Radical Downsizing; resetting expenses; assume you're not going to get a raise; What if Unemployment hits 6% w 4% inflation? Why not allow business cycle to operate? Congress using pandemic to benefit constituents; Rules for Fiscal Health;

It's just scandalous that professional athletes and team owners must accept 50% pay cuts, dropping their income from $300-million to only $150-million. That's rough. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, discuss life in America in a post-COVID economy--which will make the 4% GDP drop in 2008 look like a cake walk.

Power outages & Cherry Cobbler; Watching the economic numbers as the recovery begins; Michael Lebowitz on Baseball players' salary cuts, shortened season, optics; What's happening in America; NFL Status; Initial uptick in economic activity from pent-up demand: Is it repeatable? Amount of outstanding debt & size of Fed response; Pedro da Costa commentaries; the Fed's first priority; the Fed as enabler: "Stable markets?" Forward guidance from the Fed; setting up for next Depression; Why We Need a Recession/Reset; who are we bailing out?

Consumer behavior will be key as America begins to re-open for business in a post-COVID world. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, w Economic Policy Institute Director, Pedro da Costa, discuss what's next for the economy, the role of the Federal reserve, and what their advice to Jerome Powell would be going forward.

Has the world gone mad, as we pay workers MORE to stay home than to go out and get a job? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, w Certified Financial Planner, Danny Ratliff, CFO, explore the ramifications of working during the coronavirus pandemic, and the implications for retirement planning.

The Recessionary Outcomes of COVID-19; Consumer psychology & media narratives; Big deviation between markets & economy; Media Scares; listener e-mail: Dr. J.: Seasonal Flu vs COVID-19; take precautions, continue to live; Let's not be stupid; Working--or not--during COVID-19; Whether to Tap Your 401k; Needs, Wants, Wishes; Fallacies of Borrowing from 401k's; MLB Salary Squabble; Buying Online & Amazon Returns; Shirts & Masks; Space-X Launch, NASA, Gov't. involvement: High Speed Rail, Student Loans; the un-intended consequences of rush-to-action;

Don't know what "normal" is going to look like, but a post-Covid world is going to be different than before. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, compares society's response to the Coronavirus vs influenza, and how we may have already begun to repeat the same policy mistakes that have created the current economic climate;

Social Distancing on Memorial Day; restarting the return to "normal;" why economy may not come back as before; Science Fiction portrayals of history, dystopian future; European Commission recommendation to eat insects (while the rich consume beef): globalist agenda, save the planet, widen the wealth gap; wealth transfers; Social Distancing, Media shaming, Save the Planet; Hopes for Covid cure by EOY; no vaccine for Flu; repeating same policy mistakes; pulling forward future consumption; Bugs vs Beef, Tex-Mex on the food pyramid; great expectations for pre-pandemic growth;

On this Memorial Day, we re-run a rant from Lance Roberts wherein he questions the direction of our Nation, the hypocrisy of the Press, and just how much we're comfortable in giving up. Is this what our soldiers died for?

One of the financial rules we adhere to is how much house you can REALLY afford. RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Certified Financial Planner, Danny Ratliff, CFP, run the math on debt to income realities.

Global economy is so bad, China's not even reporting GDP lies; The M-word; Houston's missing Oilers, Astrodome, KLOL Radio; Retiring at 65--Pipe Dream or Reality? How Things Have Changed under COVID-19: Drive-by Graduations; Masks in Schools; Gen-Z's flexibility to adapt to change; Webinar Replay tease; Debt-to-Income Ratio Reality; Financial Rules: Total Mortgage Debt Ratios; Houses as expenses, not investments; Dress for Success on the Cheap;

Here's a puzzle: The Federal Reserve needs a crisis in order to continue to apply Quantitative Easing; it has made certain liquidity commitments. It's chief concern, however, is how credit markets operate. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA, examine the angles, and why it really would be best, however painful, if weaker companies were just allowed to fail and go away.

Market Response to Fed Minutes' release; definitions of Bear and Bull markets; Newsroom/"America Isn't Great Anymore;" The importance of Capitalism = economic prosperity; Michael Lebowitz - Fed's light-speed activities; Why recessions are needed; The Fed's problems: Liquidity Continuance and Credit Markets; Record Levels of Corporate Debt, slowed economic growth; Why Companies should be allowed to fail; Surviving Stay-at-Home Orders; Moderno stock; Coming up with Vaccines; valuations matter--what's the market worth? Forebearances & Delinquencies

A quotation from Ayn Rand on the demise of society launches RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts and Certified Financial Planner, Danny Ratliff, CFP, into the flaws of the American political and corporate system, and what will be required to reverse course.

Lance Roberts' all-American rant: We're already Communist America; The Great Moderno Stock Offering scam; Free Government Money; The Folly of Corporate Tax Cuts; Gov't is run by corporations; Ayn Rand:We're Doomed." Is Biden the best that we can get? How Congress really works; How to fix the wealth-gap & debt problems; Webinar recap: What to do w 401-K's; the death of the stretch IRA;

It's no wonder American households are emulating congress' habit of operating as if everything is a crisis. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, questions whether all the federal spending is really needed.

KSEV Fire--why we weren't on the air; Market re-cap: buoyancy from more Fed liquidity, Moderna COVID vaccine trials; COVID vs Flu: How we behave; The Challenge of Balancing Risk: Where/When/Why markets surprise investors--at extreme highs/lows; What is the Risk if we DON'T get a recovery? Congressional spending bill: Operating in Constant Crisis-mode; No Budget, No Plan, No Strategy for getting out of Debt; Consequences a basic income; When We Re-open: DeutscheBank Survey; potential for shift to more work at home--impact to comm'l real estate and economy;

There's no real desire to cut spending in Congress because spending tax dollars is what keeps members getting re-elected. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, details the architecture of the Fed's tactics to transfer wealth under the guise of "saving" the economy--what it's going to cost you--and a heads-up on proposed legislation that could be a death knell for small land lords.

Preparing for Memorial Day--holiday from lock-down? Jerome Powell on 60-Minutes; Market recap & Negative GDP estimates; Rules for Re-Entry; Jerome Powell excerpt; Economic Recovery--what is Recession; JC Penny bankruptcy is what should happen; Jerome Powell--printing money digitally; Why the Fed Needs a Crisis; if we're re-opening, the crisis is past; Why There's No Desire to Cut Federal Spending; interest rates a function of supply & demand; Why Fed may "cap" rates; wealth transfer; consequences of spending bill on Landlords

Back in the (pre-COVID) day; LA Closes indefinitely; Market performance defies logic amid record unemployment; no historic connections between pandemic and economic failure; The Effects of Quarantine: Families, Marriages, Businesses; Paradox of Thrift; Jerome Powell describes the unemployed: "Shadow;" Medicare Enrollment; Sunspots, Spring, and mosquitoes that look like Betty Grable; Managing Risk;

Did the Federal Reserve over-react to the Coronavirus Pandemic? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA, compare scenarios, with some disconcerting conclusions.

Covid Traffic; Biggest Risk to Recovery is Secondary Infections; the Fed's temporary fixes vs long-term solutions; Michael Lebowitz: The Bond Market is working better than Stocks; Did the Fed over-react to Covid? The Fed as ultimate arbiter of fixed rates vs free market; long term consequences; The Ides of May; heading into summer months; what we're doing w portfolios; compression of treasury yields;

Ever wonder why, when the Government issues its Cost of Living Index reports, it never seems to match what YOU'RE spending on stuff you buy? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, and Certified Financial Planner, Danny Ratliff, CFP, explain the shenanigans the Gov't goes through to justify the numbers it wants you to see.

Los Angeles shut down another 90-days; Market Response; CPI Deflationary despite jump in grocery prices; Nancy Pelosi's Trillion-dollar Giveaway (US Deficit/GDP now bigger than Greece's); Great Reset Webinar tease: Retires & Under-employed; Pelosi spending is MMT in action; Economic Shutdown & CPI: How inflation affects retirees; CPI-W vs CPI-E explainer; How We Calculate Inflation; Real CPI is +6%; Social Distancing, floor decals, standing on the x; Why Changes Must Come to SS (but no one wants to); Decision to take SS early vs benefit of wait until 70;