The Real Investment Show Podcast

One of the financial rules we adhere to is how much house you can REALLY afford. RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Certified Financial Planner, Danny Ratliff, CFP, run the math on debt to income realities.

Global economy is so bad, China's not even reporting GDP lies; The M-word; Houston's missing Oilers, Astrodome, KLOL Radio; Retiring at 65--Pipe Dream or Reality? How Things Have Changed under COVID-19: Drive-by Graduations; Masks in Schools; Gen-Z's flexibility to adapt to change; Webinar Replay tease; Debt-to-Income Ratio Reality; Financial Rules: Total Mortgage Debt Ratios; Houses as expenses, not investments; Dress for Success on the Cheap;

Here's a puzzle: The Federal Reserve needs a crisis in order to continue to apply Quantitative Easing; it has made certain liquidity commitments. It's chief concern, however, is how credit markets operate. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA, examine the angles, and why it really would be best, however painful, if weaker companies were just allowed to fail and go away.

Market Response to Fed Minutes' release; definitions of Bear and Bull markets; Newsroom/"America Isn't Great Anymore;" The importance of Capitalism = economic prosperity; Michael Lebowitz - Fed's light-speed activities; Why recessions are needed; The Fed's problems: Liquidity Continuance and Credit Markets; Record Levels of Corporate Debt, slowed economic growth; Why Companies should be allowed to fail; Surviving Stay-at-Home Orders; Moderno stock; Coming up with Vaccines; valuations matter--what's the market worth? Forebearances & Delinquencies

A quotation from Ayn Rand on the demise of society launches RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts and Certified Financial Planner, Danny Ratliff, CFP, into the flaws of the American political and corporate system, and what will be required to reverse course.

Lance Roberts' all-American rant: We're already Communist America; The Great Moderno Stock Offering scam; Free Government Money; The Folly of Corporate Tax Cuts; Gov't is run by corporations; Ayn Rand:We're Doomed." Is Biden the best that we can get? How Congress really works; How to fix the wealth-gap & debt problems; Webinar recap: What to do w 401-K's; the death of the stretch IRA;

It's no wonder American households are emulating congress' habit of operating as if everything is a crisis. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, questions whether all the federal spending is really needed.

KSEV Fire--why we weren't on the air; Market re-cap: buoyancy from more Fed liquidity, Moderna COVID vaccine trials; COVID vs Flu: How we behave; The Challenge of Balancing Risk: Where/When/Why markets surprise investors--at extreme highs/lows; What is the Risk if we DON'T get a recovery? Congressional spending bill: Operating in Constant Crisis-mode; No Budget, No Plan, No Strategy for getting out of Debt; Consequences a basic income; When We Re-open: DeutscheBank Survey; potential for shift to more work at home--impact to comm'l real estate and economy;

There's no real desire to cut spending in Congress because spending tax dollars is what keeps members getting re-elected. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, details the architecture of the Fed's tactics to transfer wealth under the guise of "saving" the economy--what it's going to cost you--and a heads-up on proposed legislation that could be a death knell for small land lords.

Preparing for Memorial Day--holiday from lock-down? Jerome Powell on 60-Minutes; Market recap & Negative GDP estimates; Rules for Re-Entry; Jerome Powell excerpt; Economic Recovery--what is Recession; JC Penny bankruptcy is what should happen; Jerome Powell--printing money digitally; Why the Fed Needs a Crisis; if we're re-opening, the crisis is past; Why There's No Desire to Cut Federal Spending; interest rates a function of supply & demand; Why Fed may "cap" rates; wealth transfer; consequences of spending bill on Landlords

Back in the (pre-COVID) day; LA Closes indefinitely; Market performance defies logic amid record unemployment; no historic connections between pandemic and economic failure; The Effects of Quarantine: Families, Marriages, Businesses; Paradox of Thrift; Jerome Powell describes the unemployed: "Shadow;" Medicare Enrollment; Sunspots, Spring, and mosquitoes that look like Betty Grable; Managing Risk;

Did the Federal Reserve over-react to the Coronavirus Pandemic? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA, compare scenarios, with some disconcerting conclusions.

Covid Traffic; Biggest Risk to Recovery is Secondary Infections; the Fed's temporary fixes vs long-term solutions; Michael Lebowitz: The Bond Market is working better than Stocks; Did the Fed over-react to Covid? The Fed as ultimate arbiter of fixed rates vs free market; long term consequences; The Ides of May; heading into summer months; what we're doing w portfolios; compression of treasury yields;

Ever wonder why, when the Government issues its Cost of Living Index reports, it never seems to match what YOU'RE spending on stuff you buy? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, and Certified Financial Planner, Danny Ratliff, CFP, explain the shenanigans the Gov't goes through to justify the numbers it wants you to see.

Los Angeles shut down another 90-days; Market Response; CPI Deflationary despite jump in grocery prices; Nancy Pelosi's Trillion-dollar Giveaway (US Deficit/GDP now bigger than Greece's); Great Reset Webinar tease: Retires & Under-employed; Pelosi spending is MMT in action; Economic Shutdown & CPI: How inflation affects retirees; CPI-W vs CPI-E explainer; How We Calculate Inflation; Real CPI is +6%; Social Distancing, floor decals, standing on the x; Why Changes Must Come to SS (but no one wants to); Decision to take SS early vs benefit of wait until 70;

Don't think there's anything cronyistic (that's a word we just made-up) about the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the Wall Street financial guys? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, describes how the Fed has created a cozy little relationship for BlackRock to sit on...er, manage cash for the government at a healthy fee...virtually in perpetuity, according to the Fed's own memorandum. This. Will. Make. You. Mad. * Special thanks to the Estate of George Carlin for the excerpt from his February 1999 performance and commentary on Germs (yes, it's all connected...)

Global Warming and Stay-at-Home; Dr. Fauci's Stark Warning & The Second Wave; no vaccine/therapy until late 2021; Re-opening the Economy; George Carlin on Germs, Immunizations, and Immunity; Credit vs Stock Markets; how the Fed has intervened; no problem with Investment-grade (IG) Bonds; how Boeing solved its own problem; Sports Addicts, NASCAR, Baseball, Little League, NFL; going back to school, school taxes; Treasury making up for tax revenue shortfall; Lance's Dad/Surviving the '60's; How the Fed will buy bonds; Cronyism at The Fed: Powell, Mnuchin, Fink/Blackrock; the arrangement to never end.

There is a correlation between market performance and the economy, despite the divergent action of recent weeks during the COVID-19 Pandemic. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts parses the numbers in the latest Labor Dept. report on Unemployment, and posits chilling questions about the results as presented---and asks who's NOT being included in the tally?

Mother's Day & Social Distancing; Jobs Report & Lessening Need for Comm'l Real Estate, Workers; post-Covid Retail Sales; The Stock Market Isn't the Economy? Correlation Between Economic Growth and Stock Valuation; the Staggering Unemployment Report; Jump in NILF Numbers; How We Got here: NYT front page; Calculating Jobs w/out Population Growth; Who's not being counted; the Credibility of the WHO; Tanzanian Covid Test; "The Black Mirror" and tracking kids w apps; Data scams; cannot have Financial, privacy security and convenience.

Market Commentary as Consumers are taken out at the knees by pandemic and draconian government responses; Everyone is going to live smaller; how to appropriately invest; Mask-Match dating; The Great Reset Webinar tease; financial needs; the definition of "Under-employment;" Webinar tease; What We Were Being Told--financial advisors now changing their tune; Financial Cushions; CARES Act will be with us forever; Take-home Tips: Pen and Pad to Make a Budget; re-prioritize spending; no longer buying new; Paradox of Thrift; slower pace of living;

Which is more troubling--the fact that we matched all of 2019's Treasury debt ($1-Trillion) in April 2020, or the fact that no one has a clue how we're going to pay it all back? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA

Jobless Claims preview; Small Businesses/Dallas a la Mode Salon owner jailed; Jobs Report will be staggeringly bad; Market Breadth has been very poor; Michael Lebowitz - Spring in MD; Blue Angels & Beck's Prime - Restaurants in Recovery; Growth is different from Absolute Numbers; Record High vs Record low Employment; Jobs, Job losses, Consumer Spending & Savings Rates; inability to spend; Gov't Data skewed by top 5-10%; Drop in Tax revenues; Government Spending vs income; Explaining the Dollar Shortage; China Trade Tensions Growing; Who buys the debt the Fed is creating? Japan as microcosm - GDP static since 1990.

With Summer coming on, and woeful economic numbers to digest, the smart money says we're not out of the woods, yet, as after-effects of the coronavirus-triggered shutdown of the economy are still to be felt. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, w Certified Financial Planner, Danny Ratliff, CFP discuss the new risks of investing that are as old as time.

Why is it that banks have been bailed out twice in the past decade, yet have tightened their requirements for loan acceptance during the pandemic? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts examines the crony capitalism that has continued to enrich the wealthy class at the expense of the middle and poorer classes of society. This will make you mad.

Cinco de Mayo + Taco Tuesday; Blue Angels' Houston Flyover; Unemployment Expectations worst ever; Blue Angels' Flyover correction; Lone Star Flight Museum; Wages for Bottom 80%; Monetary Policy protects the wealthy; biggest losers are Millennials; The Growing Wage Gap exacerbated by Crony Capitalism; Top 10% own 80% of Market; Concentration of Wealth actually slows economic growth; Article Tease: Testing Market Lows; Study: 40% Americans will continue Social Distancing; Economy is not roaring back; Behavior is key driver of economics

Berkshire-Hathaway's Warren Buffett held his annual investment confab for 2020--on line this year, thanks to COVID-19. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, analysis some of the new moves of the Oracle of Omaha.

Pre-Cinco de Mayo; Judge Hidalgo's heavy-handedness & How we're responding; no recovery until 2021; Warren Buffett's Virtual Investment Summit; The Great Pandemic - What We'll Tell Our Grandchildren; How will Vaccine/Therapy affect Consumption/Economy? The Paradox of Thrift; The Pilgrimage to Buffet's Annual Investment Event--On line this year; What Warren Buffett is Doing Differently; the importance of time-frame & duration; Giant Asian Murder Hornets - the importance of Bees; 2020 Election, Recovery, and Fickle Voters; Recovering from 15% unemployment and Pay Cuts by November?

Market Commentary: It's a Bear Market now - no company is immune; Amazon, Apple, Clorox; brand-name vs generic buys; The Federal Grill re-opens - impact and repercussions in a post-Covid World; Social Distancing = lost business; Price inflation + wage growth stagnation, suppression of 401-k Matches; Things We'll Do Differently - Webinar Tease - How The Great Depression mirrors what's to come in The Great Reset; how markets out-perform the economy (The Market is not the Economy); Hey, Boomer! answers to YouTube queries; Bitcoin vs Gold; RIA Pro Teaser; Financial Friction in Families; growing importance of Estate planning; don't forget the words behind the legalese.

Why go to work and risk exposure to some vile disease for which there is yet no cure, when you can stay home, collect unemployment checks, and watch Netflix all day? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA, discuss the core appeals of Socialism, and expose the key to Bernie Sanders' popularity. Also, see how close they got in estimating Jobless Claims numbers this time around!

Re-opening for Business; Q1 GDP includes only two weeks' business in March; Q-2 missing 1/3 Q-business from April; Expect 30-40% drop in Q-2 GDP; Michael Lebowitz - What the Fed Said; +5% Unemployment for a while; CB intervention = 29% of GDP; Fed is not achieving goals, making recovery more difficult; Jobless numbers preview; Making Socialism Attractive: making more money on unemployment; PPP went to only 5% of intended businesses; Re-opening economy: What People will do differently; Fed can do anything it wants until real inflation shows - only cure is less money circulating

Investing in stocks because they pay great dividends is fine...until the dividends end. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts reviews the Holy Trinity of Investing, and what should be the Prime Directive for every investor.

The regularly scheduled meeting of the FOMC is this week--what could they possibly say that hasn't been said in recent, inter-meeting releases? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, provides some perspective, and what's to happen to the markets when the Fed ends up owning 80% of the market.

Stormy Weather in Texas; Tollway Fares Resume; Booking Airfares; Tommy's Stimulus Check; Dwayne's Boycott app; Education in Quarantine; the Result of Gov't Takeover of Public Education & Common Core Performance; China = 15% on Education, 2% on Housing vs US 15% on Housing, 2% on Education; Incentivizing performance at Schools, Enron, Wells Fargo; Re-Opening America @ 25% capacity; Pandemic Impact to Employment; rehiring skeleton crews; comparison to Spanish Flu; "I Bought It for the Dividend;" Faulty strategy - cannot control dividend, CAN control price to Buy/Sell; Capital Preservation;

Re-Opening Texas after Covid-19; Easiest Job & Most-difficult; Market Commentary - meager volatility; Congressional Hoopla over States & Municipalities' Needs: Should they go bankrupt? New Attitudes about debt; Fed expansion of role, lowering the bar; Students ready for Back-to-School; Central Bank Interventions & Consequences: 2% Growth, no inflation, productivity suppression; President after 2024 election will be socialist; Fed Meeting Preview: What Can They Say? Most aggressive monetary policy in history; doing the same as Japan, expecting different outcome; When Fed owns 80% of Market, market no longer exists.

Poll: Liquor Stores are Essential Businesses; Reopening America's small businesses: Re-cycling tax dollars to put people to work; debt used for non-productive purposes; Adley Stump/Coronavirus Clarifications, Pt-1; Keynes & Recession; Just because rates are low doesn't mean debt doesn't matter; Adley Stump. Pt-2; Cutting taxes at the wrong time; Debts & Assets and the issue of pay-back; Wiping out debts & assets; Adley Stump, Pt-3; Rising levels of deficits & debt; Fiscal Conservatism; Bail-outs for all vs bankruptcy for the weak

How we're adjusting to working in pandemic; markets response; Keeping emotions in-check; Danny's in Time-out; The Great Depression Mind-set Today; The Paradox of Thrift; Coronavirus impact on Houston Energy Co's; the importance of ROTH IRA's; Social Security as America's Pension - not what was intended; How to calculate primary benefits; How to make up the difference when benefits are cut; The Black Hole of Retirement: Pandemic is a foretaste;Re-thinking American Business, Globalism, & the Cost of Living; How we invest will be different;

The lure of low interest rates has resulted in an over abundance of zombie companies--particularly in the energy sector--which, without cheap money to prop them up, should have been allowed to wither and die; instead, they've created the glut of oil that is now choking markets in a tidal wave of crude. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA discuss the harsh realities of what needs to happen next.

AOC on Working 70-hrs/wk; Oil Prices & Money Flow Indicator: How We're Managing Risk; Michael Lebowitz, Covid-free & Kickin': Oil Prices are a function of futures contract, not necessarily driven by demand; Historic Levels of Supply; US looking for others to cut production while we continue to drill & produce; Zombie companies should be allowed to fail; Harvard's about-face on TPP $; JP Morgan & Big Banks, FNMA FDMC: It's another banking bailout cloaked in something else.

"In 2008, when we didn't shut down the economy, earnings fell by 89%. How can S&P now make the claim that in the second quarter of 2020, with the economy paralyzed by pandemic, earnings should only drop by 10%??" RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts insists there's still a lot to be worked through, and the risk to chasing stocks still outweighs the reward.

The Senate passes more money for small businesses, as state clamor to re-open, and a record number of new coronavirus cases are reported; there's no fiscal responsibility in Washington; Washing your food; Good Things Come from Bad Situations; Saving Money & Looking for deals; What Happens When Businesses Re-open? Who Are the Most Attractive Hires? How earnings estimates impact portfolios, and how S&P is getting it wrong. Rothschild 80-20 Rule

As credit markets continue to sop up the additional liquidity of the Fed, and companies with weak balance sheets line up to socialize their bad decisions, a review of how Capitalism was meant to be, where Winners win, Losers lose, and markets balance the scales as only markets can...and should.

TV Shows and Quarantine; Oil Prices & Trading: Running Out of Storage is bigger problem; Commodities have been foretelling of weaker economy; the Earnings Crash; What Constitutes a Rally? (If things were really better, everyone would be involved). Money flow into markets is still weak; That's Capitalism - The Coming Earnings Crash; Credit Markets are Absorbing Fed Liquidity; Winners win, Losers lose--until 2008; now public bails them out. June Oil Futures; Energy as important component of economy: Ex. N. Dakota Drilling; This is not just a virus; Markets need to be allowed to function.

The reason the US cannot get any better than 2% economic growth is because we're literally drowning in debt--and that was the case BEFORE the coronavirus pandemic. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts lays out the evidence that debt is killing economic growth.

On Re-opening the Economy--we may not yet have reached the peak; Fed programs only redistribute wealth; the story of El Arroyo; the True Worth of Teachers and Healthcare Workers; Federal Bailouts - exacerbation of Wealth Gap; How much is a Trillion Dollars? Debt & Deficits Heading into Recession; The Millionaire Next Door; 96% of Tax Revenue going to mandatory payments before pandemic; Why Large Co Bankruptcy isn't a bad thing; Corporate Cronyism; CARES Act allows for borrowing from 401-K: Don't Do It!

How we're working during social distancing; some companies will never come back; other will be permanently altered in The Great Reset; TV News remote on Richard's front lawn; Things Won't Be the Same in a post-Covid world; Avoiding Covid scams; Disaster Fraud Hotline: 866-720-5721; How Healthcare Costs May Change in a post-Covid environment; No Companies are Too Big to Fail.

Even in tough times, savvy investors can make prudent choices with money. RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA on some specific areas that might be poised in which to prosper.

Dining in The Kitchen; Jobless Claims at Highest in History; Recovery will be slower than usual; Michael Lebowitz - Home School Economics & Social Security; The Best Use of Bankruptcy; Why can't airlines raise their own cash instead of taking bailout? Low interest rates encourage bad behavior; Big Banks vs Regional Banks; How to Unwind the Debt Bubble; Hedge Funds' inability to borrow now qualifies as Crisis; Socialism for the Rich - Capitalism for the Poor; IMF Debt Jubilee; Jobless Claims Predictions; What's the Fed's End-game? What Will Recovery Look Like? Where are opportunities to invest? Running out of eggs.

With the market down 35% in the 1st Quarter, how is it that big firms like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are having the best results in their history? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts w Certified Financial Planner, Danny Ratliff, CFP, and the ugly truth about the rigged game on Wall Street.

President Trump teases opening the Economy--and barbershops; How long before a Vaccine? Best 15-days in Markets since 1933 (what happened after that??) Danny Ratliff on Why Baby Boomer's Can't Retire; Coronavirus is trigger at Peak of Market Cycle; Opportunity coming to buy-in cheaply; best opportunities will be in Energy, Gold, and Commodities; Federal Reserve is going to create Inflation

The one thing MMT'er's fail to realize about untethered debt and deficits is that someone has to pay for it--and when that someone is the Federal Government, there just isn't enough money to go around, regardless of how high taxes may go...and that's why the much-balyhooed 2% GDP growth rate is woefully insufficient.