The Horn

Africa’s priority in fighting COVID-19 is to find the right “balance between saving lives and saving livelihoods”, based on the experience of what happened in Europe, the United States, and China, says Dr. John Nkengasong, Director of Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), the African Union body coordinating the response to the pandemic on the continent.The wave of COVID-19 infections that many predicted would cruelly expose Africa’s weak health systems has not materialized on the continent thanks to early lockdown measures, lessons learnt from the Ebola and HIV crises, and strong leadership and coordination on a continental level.But Africa is not out of the woods yet, and as European countries start easing lockdowns, Africa needs to redouble its efforts if it wants to avoid a massive spread of the disease. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Africa has been hit with a double punch. The economic fallout of COVID-19 has preceded the health crisis, resulting in job losses and endangering food supplies. The pandemic's impact on the region's tumultuous political transitions could be grave. The international community has moved surprisingly quickly in response to the pandemic, but is it enough? EU Special Representative to the Horn of Africa Alexander Rondos explains that greater regional cooperation is needed to address the potential consequences wrought by the crisis. Only by working more closely together can they develop an effective strategy for pandemic relief. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

“Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change across the world, and yet is the least responsible”.Climate change is a threat multiplier. Its ability to disrupt livelihoods, change migration patterns, and complicate political imbalances make it an increasingly significant driver of conflict. David Mozersky, co-founder of Energy Peace Partners and a former Crisis Group project director for the region, is Alan’s guest this week. They examine the conflict in Darfur, UN climate goals, and the international community’s carbon footprint.For more information, see our President and CEO Robert Malley talking to the UN Security Council: https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=791719564689357&ref=watch_permalink Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

“COVID-19 is not just an epidemic, but a highly complex emergency”. The implications of the coronavirus pandemic are still unclear. But the looming global recession and direct impact of containment measures on livelihoods make this an unprecedented crisis for Africa. Furthermore, the U.S., once an important ally in times of health crises, has turned its back on the continent, especially after President Trump’s “reckless” decision to terminate funding for the World Health Organization. Worst-hit countries are now faced with the prospect of major food shortages, political fragility, and major economic dislocation. Alex de Waal, an expert on the continent who has written extensively on the effects of pandemics on political power, joins Alan this week to discuss the international system’s ability to respond to the new crisis in Africa and the value of community-led strategies to help blunt the impact.Articles on COVID-19:New Pathogen, Old Politics (Boston Review)COVID-19 in Africa: “Know your Epidemic, Act on its Politics." (African Arguments)Governance Implications of Epidemic Disease in Africa: Updating the Agenda for COVID-19Books discussed: AIDS and Power: Why there is no Political Crisis - YetThe Real Politics of the Horn of AfricaMass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We continue our COVID-19 series with a 360-degree view of perspectives on the pandemic’s impact. Five Crisis Group analysts look at the risks and opportunities in Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania, and South Sudan, as well as the profound political and economic implications of the disease. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

COVID-19 poses an enormous threat in the Horn of Africa. Beyond deadly risks to public health and hospitals, democratic systems are already affected and critical diplomatic efforts disrupted. Outbreaks in camps housing refugees and other populations displaced by conflict could be catastrophic.Kenyan diplomat Ambassador Mahboub Maalim joins Alan for this second special COVID-19 episode. They discuss the implications of the disease on vulnerable populations, the threat to multilateral institutions and the limits of virtual diplomacy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The death and disruption wrought by the coronavirus pandemic have already been felt by much of the world. With the disease now making its way across East Africa, Alan Boswell sat down with journalist April Zhu to discuss the challenges the region faces.Overstretched healthcare systems, the consequences of a global economic depression on stability, and the long-term geopolitical implications of China’s growing engagement are all covered in this first episode of a special COVID-19 series on The Horn.For more information, see our recent briefing on the possible political effects of the contagion: COVID-19 and Conflict: Seven Trends to Watch. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan are struggling to reach agreement over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.Ethiopia, which sees the dam as a defining national development project, is ready to start filling it; Sudan, a historic ally of Egypt, covets the cheap electricity and expanded agricultural production that it promises; while Egypt remains deeply concerned about the impact it could have on the Nile’s water flow.Harry Verhoeven, a leading academic expert on the issue, joins Alan this week to discuss the current impasse. They examine the technical issues, the politicization of the dam, understandings of security and power, the role of the U.S. Treasury, and what the dam could contribute toward poverty reduction, environmental sustainability and agricultural productivity in the Nile Basin.For more information, see our Commentary, Calming the Choppy Nile Dam Talks and our report, Bridging the Gap in the Nile Waters Dispute Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On 22 February, South Sudan's two warring leaders, Salva Kiir and Riek Machar agreed once again to form a unity government. After several failed attempts to make peace, this deal is more important than ever. In this episode, we flip the script by bringing Crisis Group's Africa Program Director, Comfort Ero, into the studio to interview host Alan Boswell. Alan, who is Crisis Group's senior analyst in South Sudan, has just returned from field research there. In this episode Comfort and Alan discuss how we got to this point, what the unity government needs to succeed and what may hold it back, again.Read our statement for more information: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/south-sudan/major-step-toward-ending-south-sudans-civil-war Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sudan’s transition hangs in the balance. As the country embarks on its journey to inclusive, democratic rule, one of the most pressing issues it faces is the flailing economy. The civilian-led administration inherits a legacy of decades of ruinous economic policies, exacerbated by crippling U.S. sanctions. Crisis Group has long called on the U.S. to rescind its outdated designation of Sudan as a State Sponsor of Terrorism (SST), which would be an important first step in supporting economic reform. Cameron Hudson, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, joins Alan this week to shed light on the nature of U.S. sanctions, the factors obstructing the lifting of the SST, the role of the international community and the challenges for Prime Minister Hamdok. For more information, see Cameron’s Foreign Policy article:https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/25/the-united-states-should-lift-sanctions-on-sudan/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ethiopia’s elections, scheduled for August, are set to be the first free and fair elections since 2005. But myriad challenges lie ahead, warns Will Davison, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Ethiopia and Alan’s guest on The Horn this week.When Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power, he immediately marked himself as a departure from the country’s authoritarian past. He has opened up the country’s politics, embarked on a historic rapprochement with Eritrea, released more political prisoners and invited home exiled dissidents. However, efforts to dismantle the country’s old order have sparked a debate between supporters and opponents of the country’s ethnic federalist system. Hostility among different regions has soared, ethno-nationalism is on the rise and intercommunal clashes have displaced millions. Concerns abound that intensified political competition around elections could further destabilise the state. Tune in to hear all about the complex dynamics at play.For more information, see our report Keeping Ethiopia’s Transition on the Rails. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From Sudan’s fragile transition and Ethiopia's internal tensions to a resilient Al-Shabaab insurgency in Somalia and beyond, 2020 is set to be an important year in the Horn of Africa.Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Project Director for the region, joins Alan to discuss the conflicts and crises dominating the headlines and the ones evading them, from the Kenya-Somalia maritime dispute to the dramatic deterioration of Tanzania’s political environment. Special thanks to our producer, Maeve Frances. For more information, check out our website: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Al-Shabaab insurgency remains a potent force in Somalia. One understudied source of its resilience is the support it enjoys among Somali women, despite the group’s patriarchal ethos, strict gender ideology and brutal methods. Azadeh Moaveni, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Gender, joins Alan to discuss women’s roles within the movement, from intelligence gathering, to fundraising, to arms carrying and to recruitment. For more information, see our briefing: Women and Al-Shabaab’s InsurgencySpecial thanks to our producer, Maeve Frances. Originally published on 28 June 2019. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Kenya and Somalia are currently fighting a legal battle over their shared maritime border, an area rich in oil and gas. Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi "Farmajo" is playing hardball. With national elections approaching, he has taken a more assertive stance to demonstrate the country’s strength and appeal to his support base. Kenya views itself as a powerful country in a turbulent region and doesn’t wish to be seen caving into pressure.Rashid Abdi, Consultant and former Horn of Africa Director at Crisis Group, joins Alan this week to shed light on the deeply complex issue. They seek insights about why the dispute flared up, Ethiopia’s changing role under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and how mediation efforts have achieved some positive, modest success in de-escalating tensions. Special thanks to our producer, Maeve Frances. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After five years of violent conflict, South Sudan’s main warring leaders, President Salva Kiir and his chief rival Riek Machar, signed a 2018 peace deal. The agreement established a ceasefire and set out a political roadmap toward elections in 2022, which included the formation of a unity government. But the peace deal is imperiled and with it the fragile ceasefire. Emmily Koiti, a civil society activist who participated in the peace talks, joins Alan this week to discuss why she thinks the main parties will fail to form a functioning unity government, the principle issues obstructing progress and why the country’s current leaders do not represent the aspirations of the South Sudanese. For more information, see our briefing: Déjà Vu: Preventing Another Collapse in South Sudan. With special thanks to our producer, Maeve Frances. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

President Trump hoped that minimal engagement would bring big wins in the Horn of Africa: more U.S. trade & investment and seeing off his great power competitors. In practice, multiple surprises have forced U.S. policy into a mode of serial reaction. How are these priorities and realities truly different from those of his predecessors? And how has he dealt with themes that rarely feature in his usual doctrines, issues like governance, peace and security? Judd Devermont joins Alan Boswell to discuss all this on The Horn. Judd Devermont is the Director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and was a senior official at the National Intelligence Council under the Obama Administration.With thanks to our producer, Maeve Frances. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sudan’s strongman Omar al-Bashir was swept from power in April after thirty years of autocratic rule. The country has been left with a flailing economy, political polarisation and a powerful security establishment bent on clinging on to power. Reem Abbas, activist, writer and researcher, joins Alan Boswell this week to discuss the challenges and opportunities of the post-Bashir transition. She was a contributor to our recent report, Safeguarding Sudan’s Revolution. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Digital technologies are having a dramatic impact in politics. But while their influence in Western political spaces has been heavily scrutinised, little attention has been paid in Africa. Best-selling Kenyan author Nanjala Nyabola joins Alan Boswell on The Horn this week. They discuss everything from digital colonialism and the exploitation of technology by state powers to the power of social media, for better or for worse. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Regional instability, a relative power vacuum and competition among rising Middle East states have prompted Gulf countries to seek to project their power into the Red Sea corridor. Alan Boswell is joined by Elizabeth Dickinson on this week’s episode to discuss the risks and opportunities as these countries accelerate their push for allies, influence and physical presence in the Horn of Africa. For more information, see our report: Intra-Gulf Competition in Africa’s Horn: Lessening the Impact Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.