The Horn

In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell talks with Tom Perriello, recently appointed U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, about the obstacles to peace in Sudan after a year of fighting and Washington’s plans to revitalise diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. They unpack the challenging task of bringing the leaders of the warring parties in Sudan to the negotiating table as the conflict continues to proliferate throughout the country amid a worsening humanitarian crisis. They discuss prospects for aligning the interests of outside actors involved in the fighting, notably Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, what a concerted effort to end the conflict could look like as well as potential sticking points to a peace deal. They also talk about how the country could return to a political process once the fighting has subsided.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent statement Sudan: A Year of War and our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Enrica Picco, Crisis Group’s Central Africa Project Director, about Mahamat Déby’s rule in Chad as the country heads for elections in May. They discuss Déby’s ascendance to power after the death of his father in 2021 and his initial promises for democratic transition and national dialogue. They assess the fallout of the war in Sudan in Chad and how Déby’s alleged support for the Rapid Support Forces has been received among his support base. They talk about the crackdowns on the Chadian opposition, the killing of Déby’s main political rival Yaya Dillo in February and what to expect in the elections next month. They also discuss Déby’s relations with other military leaders in the Sahel and his seeming turn to Moscow and other regional powers for security partnerships as relations with its traditional Western backers, notably France, are turning increasingly fraught.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Chad country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Alsanosi Adam, an active member of Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), a youth-led grassroots network providing aid and basic services for civilians in many areas across the country, especially in the capital Khartoum area, about Sudan’s humanitarian crisis after almost a year of war. They talk about the harsh living conditions in Sudan’s urban areas and the difficulties civilians face in accessing food and medicine throughout the country. They unpack how the local responder networks operate in the areas controlled by the two warring parties and their challenging task of reaching civilians in need. They discuss the looming famine and the potential acceleration of the humanitarian crisis in Sudan should aid access remain restricted. They talk about how the ERRs ensure financial transparency and accountability in their operations. They also discuss what role Sudan’s grassroots networks should play in a future peace process.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out last year’s episode with Maryam Elfaki, The Future of Sudan’s Resistance Committees and our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks to Diego Da Rin, Crisis Group’s Haiti expert, and Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa Director, about the latest surge in gang violence in Haiti, which has put the state on the brink of collapse, and the potential of an international mission led by Kenya to restore security. They talk about the deep crisis in Haiti and why gangs in the country are trying to overthrow Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s government. They talk about Henry’s visit to Kenya, what’s behind Nairobi’s decision to lead an international mission to Haiti and why it has faced opposition in Kenya’s courts. They assess the political risks involved for Nairobi in sending police forces to Haiti and how gangs in the country might react to such a deployment. They also discuss fast-moving events, whether Henry is now stranded abroad, and whether a foreign deployment still looks feasible. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Haiti’s Gangs: Can a Foreign Mission Break Their Stranglehold? and our Haiti country page Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Crisis Group’s senior advisor to the AU, about the highlights of the 2024 AU Summit, the continental body’s priorities for the year ahead and whether the annual summit moved the needle on addressing many of the continent’s major crises and conflicts. They break down the main files discussed at this year’s summit, particularly the worsening security crisis in eastern Congo, rising tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia over sea access and the string of coups in West Africa. They also discuss the AU’s lacklustre response to the war in Sudan and whether the body can take a more tangible role in resolving the conflict in the year ahead. They examine the AU’s push for a larger role on the global stage and deepening fault lines between AU members and Western countries, including over the war in Gaza. They also discuss the election of a new AU chair and the upcoming race for a new chair of the AU Commission. They also discuss whether African leaders think the AU is suffering an institutional crisis. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2024 and our African Union & Regional Bodies page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on The Horn from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa Director Murithi Mutiga to discuss Horn of Africa politics, including Ethiopia’s push for sea access, Sudan’s war, Kenya’s regional role and Gulf rivalries playing out in the region. They talk about a recently announced deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the breakaway northern region of Somalia, that would see Ethiopia lease part of the Somaliland coast reportedly in exchange for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s statehood. They discuss the reaction in Somalia, which rejects Somaliland independence, and whether anti-Ethiopian sentiment could strengthen Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab. They also talk about growing hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They discuss increasing foreign involvement in Sudan’s war and the former paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ advances. They touch on the regional role that Kenyan President William Ruto appears to aspire to and the evolving influence of Western powers, especially the U.S., in the Horn.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, visit our Horn of Africa regional page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, to discuss the fallout of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding for Somalia and the region. They talk about Hargeisa’s motivations for the port deal with Addis Ababa and Mogadishu’s response. They look at what deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Somalia could mean for the offensive against Al Shabaab as well as regional stability generally. They examine the flurry of diplomacy by Somalia aimed at rallying opposition to the deal. They also discuss whether Ethiopia could make a pitch for greater sea access that would benefit both Somalia and Somaliland.For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa regional page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Christopher Clapham, Ethiopia expert and professor emeritus at the University of Cambridge. They unpack the context of Ethiopia’s major new quest for sea access, the regional tensions created by this public demand, and the tidal waves from the recent Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland that is fiercely opposed by Somalia and others. They also discuss the dire internal situation inside Ethiopia and whether the proliferating crises inside the country could continue to escalate. They also discuss the historic and current involvement of external actors in the region, including Gulf states.For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Ethiopia’s Ominous New War in Amhara and our Ethiopia country page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this Special Episode of The Horn, we are bringing you a panel discussion on Sudan moderated by Crisis Group’s President and CEO, Comfort Ero, at the 2023 Doha Forum. Comfort is joined by U.S. Special Envoy for The Horn of Africa Mike Hammer, UN Special Envoy for The Horn of Africa Hanna Tetteh, founding director of the Sudan-focused think tank Confluence Advisory, Kholood Khair and Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga. They assess the latest diplomatic push to try and get a ceasefire in Sudan, ways to better coordinate mediation efforts and the difficult task of bringing the warring parties in Sudan to the negotiating table. They discuss the investments needed to better protect civilians in Sudan and the state of civilian efforts to unify against the war. They also highlight how a prolonged war in Sudan risks further destabilising an already fragile region.Find the link to the video recording of the full panel here.For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa page, our Sudan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Alexander Rondos, a former diplomat and a senior advisor at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Kholood Khair, founding director of Confluence Advisory, a Sudan-focused think tank, and Abdul Mohammed, who has served in senior positions for the United Nations and the African Union, to discuss the state of diplomacy in the Horn of Africa. They talk about the war in Sudan and the risk of conflicts and crises proliferating in the Horn, absent coherent diplomatic initiatives. They discuss the rising competition among regional and international powers to head diplomacy in Sudan and elsewhere, as well as the diminished role of the U.S. They also look at how the increasing strategic importance of the Red Sea is fuelling tensions between regional powers.This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa page and our Sudan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Saliem Fakir, executive director of the African Climate Foundation, Robert Muthami, a member of Kenya’s delegation to previous COPs, and Nazanine Moshiri, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Climate, Environment and Conflict in Africa to talk about Africa’s role at this year’s COP28 climate summit in Dubai. They discuss Africa’s negotiating position and priorities at this year’s climate summit, including climate financing. They look at the importance for African negotiators to speak with one voice. They explain why this year’s focus on peace and conflict is new for COP and important for African countries. This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our COP28: A Special Series page and our Climate, Environment and Conflict page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy, to discuss the landscape in Ethiopia one year after the peace deal in Tigray. They explore how relations between Addis Ababa and Tigrayan leaders have evolved since the signing of a peace deal in Pretoria last year and the many challenges Tigray still faces today. They discuss how Abiy's wartime alliance with Eritrea and the Amhara elite broke down, leading to a new war in the Amhara region and rising tensions with Ethiopia. They also look at whether Addis Ababa’s recent bid for access to the Red Sea could raise the risks of a regional escalation.For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Ethiopia's Ominous New War in Amhara and our Ethiopia country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Alan Boswell and Shewit Woldemichael to talk about the latest developments in Sudan’s civil war, where fighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has been raging for almost seven months. They talk about the recent advances by the RSF in Darfur, where the Sudanese army has been largely routed, and what the recent gains mean for the war’s trajectory. They talk about the RSF’s motives in fighting and what its leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti, hopes to gain from the war. They discuss the army’s weakness and increasing reliance on Islamist forces formerly associated with long-serving ruler Omar al-Bashir. They also examine the dearth of serious diplomacy aimed at ending the war. For more analysis on the war in Sudan, check out our Sudan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks to Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, and Sarah Harrison, Crisis Group’s Senior U.S. Analyst, about Somalia’s offensive against Al-Shabaab and the U.S. strategy toward the country. Alan and Omar update listeners on the stalling offensive, supported by clan militias and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). They also discuss the postponed withdrawal of ATMIS soldiers and whether the Somali government will be able to take over from the African Union forces by the end of 2024. Alan and Sarah evaluate successive U.S. administrations' approaches to Somalia as part of the Global War on Terrorism. They discuss how the Biden administration decided to send U.S. troops back to Somalia despite Biden's pledge to end the country's forever wars and whether U.S. strategy remains fit for purpose. Omar also discusses how Somalis view U.S. support. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our report Out of the Box: How to Rebalance U.S. Somalia Policy, our briefing Sustaining Gains in Somalia’s Offensive against Al-Shabaab and our Somalia country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan talks to Dr Suliman Baldo, Executive Director of the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker, about the dire state of Sudan six months into the war between Sudan’s armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and whether Sudan has already collapsed. They assess the current military dynamics across the country and the internal dynamics within both the RSF and the Sudanese armed forces, as well as why there has been no serious progress towards a ceasefire. They talk about how both parties’ mobilisation of different ethnic groups amplifies further social tensions among the population. They also discuss the involvement of outside actors in the conflict and why existing peace efforts have failed to make any meaningful progress.For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Dr Solomon Ayele Dersso, founder of Amani Africa, Paul-Simon Handy of the Institute for Security Studies, and Crisis Group expert Liesl Louw-Vaudran to discuss the state of peace and security in Africa. They assess the African Union’s response to the recent string of coups in West Africa and whether it still has the ability to deter military takeovers. They also talk about how the conflict in Sudan has tested the AU’s peace and security architecture and how competition between the AU and different regional bodies has hampered mediation efforts. Finally, they discuss what shape peacekeeping in Africa might take in the future and whether regional initiatives can fill the vacuum left by the departure of UN missions.This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Q&A What Future for UN Peacekeeping in Africa after Mali Shutters Its Mission?, our previous podcast episodes on the with Liesl and Solomon and our Africa program page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this first episode of The Horn’s new season, Alan Boswell talks with Annette Weber, EU special representative for the Horn of Africa, to discuss diplomacy and peacemaking in the region. They talk at length about the conflict in Sudan, the trajectory of regional and international mediation efforts, the prospects for serious ceasefire negotiations and the best ways of including civilians in a peace process. They assess whether anything can be done to improve the situation in Darfur even as national ceasefire talks falter. They also take a look at other developments in the Horn, from the unrest in Ethiopia to the region's approach to Eritrea, as well as the renewed negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the future of efforts to counter Al-Shabaab. They also discuss the growing role of Arab Gulf powers in the Horn and the changing nature of diplomacy in the region. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa regional page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From 22-24 August, leaders of the BRICS countries, the economic grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, will meet in Johannesburg for their annual summit. The meeting is highly anticipated as it comes at a point of growing polarisation and uncertainty on the international stage. In this rapidly changing global order, some see BRICS becoming a political counterweight to the West, but internal divides and divergent goals among the group on topics like UN reform suggest that it is far from united.This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Sanusha Naidu, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue, to discuss what to expect at the upcoming BRICS Summit. They unpack the origins of the alliance and how its goals have shifted in recent years. They talk about whether BRICS is moving from a group of emergent economies to a political bloc in opposition to the West. They also discuss how the war in Ukraine has changed dynamics within BRICS, and South Africa’s relationship with Russia, which has come under increased scrutiny. They also talk about what’s next for BRICS and where the group might look next for potential expansion. For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our pages on Africa and Multilateral Diplomacy pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sudan’s famed resistance committees arose in their present form during Sudan's 2019 revolution and then spearheaded the country's resistance to military rule over the subsequent years. With the outbreak of war in April between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, these groups are scrambling to aid Sudanese caught in the war yet also face an uncertain and challenging future. Many of their members have fled for safety abroad, and those who remain face dangers on many fronts, including from the warring parties and the dire humanitarian situation. This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Maryam Elfaki, long and active member of the resistance committee in Sudan's northern sister city Bahri, about what is next for the revolutionary networks in the country now that they find themselves caught inside Sudan's terrible new war. They talk about the origins, structures, and internal dynamics of the resistance committees, their efforts to forge a collective political roadmap, whether anyone in Sudan can claim political legitimacy, how they view other political actors in the country, and whether resistance committees can play a direct role in any future peace talks or political process. They also talk about how resistance committees have transformed themselves into Sudan's humanitarian first responders and aim to provide the vanished services of Sudan's collapsed state. For more in-depth analysis on the conflict in Sudan, check out our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Since the outbreak of the war in Sudan, the West Darfur region has seen a dramatic resurgence in violence. While the RSF and the Sudanese army have focused their war effort on the capital Khartoum, fighting has erupted between Arab and non-Arab militias and paramilitary groups in West Darfur. Reports of mass atrocities and displacement share unsettling similarities to the brutal war that devastated Darfur 20 years ago. With the main conflict actors in Sudan being seemingly no closer to a peace deal after more than two months of fighting, the violence seems unlikely to subside. This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Jerome Tubiana, writer, researcher, and a former Sudan analyst for Crisis Group, about the escalating violence in West Darfur. They discuss the history of conflict in Darfur, factors that played into escalating tensions on the eve of Sudan's new war, and how the outbreak of conflict in April has led to a rapid deterioration of stability in the region. They highlight the brutal tactics of armed groups in the region and the devastating toll that has taken on civilians. They talk about the actors involved and how the RSF and the Sudanese army view the conflict in Darfur. They also address if the fighting in Darfur might spread further in the region and into Chad and why peace in Khartoum might not be enough to end the violence in Sudan’s peripheries. For more in-depth analysis on the conflict in Sudan, check out our latest briefing “A Race against Time to Halt Sudan’s Collapse” and our Sudan country page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The conflict in Sudan between the country’s armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been a major source of concern for its northern neighbour Egypt. Cairo, a backer of Sudan's army, now faces both a humanitarian crisis that is spilling over into its borders and an increasingly challenging geopolitical landscape with Sudan, an ally since the fall of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, descending into chaos.This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Michael Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program director, about Egypt’s role in the war in Sudan. They look at the historical ties between the two countries, current political dynamics, and Egypt's response to the 2019 popular uprising and political transition in Sudan. They discuss what is behind Cairo’s support for the Sudanese armed forces and how it positioned itself toward the current conflict in Sudan. They also discuss Cairo's views of U.S.-led diplomacy and the role of Gulf powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Sudan and the Horn of Africa more generally. They also talk about the long-running dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and how the war in Sudan might affect Cairo’s diplomacy in the region more broadly. For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episodes, check out our Sudan and Egypt country pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The fighting between the Sudanese armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has taken a grave toll on civilians throughout the country. Hundreds of thousands have fled Sudan and those staying behind in urban areas are facing severe shortages of basic necessities. On 22 May, the conflict parties negotiated yet another ceasefire in their talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. But since every previous ceasefire has been broken, hope is faint that this one will hold.This week on The Horn, Alan interviews Reem Abbas, a non-resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy and a Sudanese activist and researcher, to discuss her first-hand encounter with the fighting in Khartoum and her arduous journey out of Sudan to Egypt. They discuss what life is now like in Khartoum, the systematic destruction of the city, the exodus of the Sudanese elite and the long-term implications for the country. They also talk about how the two parties are faring militarily, why the fighting might not end soon and how civilian actors should organise themselves. For more in-depth analysis on the situation in Sudan, check out our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The fighting between the Sudanese armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has continued for almost a month as a string of ceasefires keep breaking down. This week, representatives of Sudan's warring factions are meeting in Jeddah for Saudi-U.S.-brokered talks aimed at ending the conflict that has collapsed Sudan’s capital Khartoum, left hundreds dead, and triggered a huge humanitarian crisis and a mass exodus.This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Jerome Tubiana, Crisis Group’s former senior Sudan analyst, to unpack the roots of the conflict, the rise of the RSF and their leader Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo, and their rivalry with Sudan’s armed forces. They take a closer look at the development of the RSF under former President Omar al-Bashir, and how they and Hemedti became a powerful force in Sudanese politics. They also talk about the ongoing conflict, who is supporting the armed forces and the RSF, and if the fighting could spread further in Sudan and beyond its borders. Finally, they discuss where the conflict might be headed, what a resolution could look like,  and what that might mean for the future of the RSF and Sudan.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more in-depth analysis on the situation in Sudan, check out Crisis Group's latest statement Stopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War, our Sudan country page and Jerome’s article in The Baffler Land of Thirst.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.Sudan has entered its second week of fighting between rival military factions. Battles between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have torn apart cities and towns, especially the capital Khartoum, where millions of civilians are facing shortages of basic necessities. A 72-hour ceasefire between the rival forces has offered some respite, allowing many Sudanese to flee the country and diplomats’ and other foreign nationals’ evacuation. But clashes still continue and mediators have struggled to convince the two sides to get back to talks.This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa Program director. They discuss what’s behind the power struggle between the Sudanese armed forces and the RSF, and between the men – General Abel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo – in command of each. They discuss the devastation a full-scale civil war would cause, efforts by the U.S., Gulf power and African leaders to mediate, and the conflict’s geopolitics and risk of outside involvement. They look back at how Sudan’s transition unravelled and the challenges facing talks and getting to civilian rule if the parties do get back to the table. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Sudan country page and our latest statement; Stopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As the clashes between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary RSF continue for a second week, hopes for a settlement to end the fighting still appear slim. The conflict’s humanitarian fallout has already been dire, with hundreds of civilians killed and thousands displaced, especially in the country’s urban areas, where the fighting has been most concentrated. A humanitarian ceasefire which both sides have agreed on this week has led to a slowdown in fighting but has not prevented skirmishes between both sides. Regional and international actors have so far made little progress in bringing the parties to the negotiating table. This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Dr. Amgad Fareid Eltayeb, a former leader in Sudan’s civilian Forces for Freedom and Change umbrella coalition, former assistant chief of staff to former Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, and former adviser to the UN mission to Sudan about ongoing fighting in the country, its humanitarian fallout in Khartoum and elsewhere, and what lies behind the power struggle between the leaders of the Sudanese Army and the RSF. They address the urban warfare’s impact on Khartoum's residents and their difficulties in escaping the conflict-affected areas. They delve into the origins of the power struggle between the Sudanese armed forces and the RSF, and their leaders Abdelfattah al-Burhan and Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo. They also discuss his criticisms of the U.S.-led mediation process that eventually broke down into civil war, and whether or not there were any better alternatives. They talk about why tensions rose in the final weeks before the war and whether there is any hope left for a return to civilian rule in Sudan in the foreseeable future. For more in-depth analysis on the situation in Sudan, check out Crisis Group's latest statement Stopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War, last week’s episode of our Hold Your Fire! podcast War in Sudan and our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.Two rival armies are driving Sudan toward full-blown civil war. Fighting between the Sudanese armed forces, led by Abdelfattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary force led by Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo, is tearing apart cities and towns across the country, including the capital Khartoum. The battles have already killed hundreds of civilians and left millions more facing shortages of basic necessities. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior Sudan Analyst Shewit Woldemichael and Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project Director Alan Boswell to look at the background to the crisis and what can be done to halt the fighting. They look at evolving tensions between the army and the RSF since Sudan’s 2019 popular uprising, especially since the 2021 coup, when Burhan and Hemedti seized full control of the state from civilians with whom they had been sharing power. They explain the trigger for the fighting: a dispute over how to integrate the RSF into regular army ranks. They discuss how Hemedti, a figure from outside Sudan’s traditional Nile elites, emerged as an influential power broker and what he wants in the confrontation with Burhan. They also talk about the two military leaders’ foreign ties, the danger that outside powers will get sucked into Sudan’s conflict and prospects for mediation. Finally, they ask what went wrong with Sudan’s transition after the 2019 uprising and whether external actors, particularly Western governments, could have done more to prevent its collapse. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Sudan country page and our latest statement; Stopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In 2018, South Sudan's main warring parties signed a peace deal which today should have already concluded with national elections. However, mid-2022, after years of implementation delays and stalled politics, South Sudan's power-sharing government announced a two-year extension of its term in office and pushed elections until December 2024. Even with the extended timeline, South Sudan's roadmap to elections looks steep and littered with pitfalls. The current failure to implement the peace agreement and an almost non-existing voting infrastructure have raised doubts about whether South Sudan can be ready for elections any time soon. With violence raging across much of the country, many also question whether South Sudan can hold elections safely. This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Edmund Yakani, executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, about South Sudan’s political malaise and the country's fraught road to elections. They first address the implications of South Sudan's latest political crisis after President Salva Kiir relieved Angelina Teny, the wife of First Vice President Riek Machar, of her position as defence minister. They then identify critical steps that must be taken to ensure the viability of the upcoming election, including a credible new constitution. They also discuss why surveys show South Sudanese overwhelmingly want elections even though they also predict such elections will cause more violence. They then also discuss what approaches could help foster more stability in South Sudan’s political system in the long-run, and whether Kiir or Machar would ever consider retirement. This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out Crisis Group's South Sudan country page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Russian-owned Wagner Group continues to grow its footprint in parts of Africa, with a presence in Libya, the Central African Republic, Mali and elsewhere. As a private military contractor with close ties to the Kremlin, the group ostensibly provides combat services but has also garnered a reputation for deft media tactics that have bolstered Russia's visibility on the continent. Several African countries now partner closely with Wagner for military support and training. But the war in Ukraine, and Wagner's role in it, has increased scrutiny on the paramilitary group and heightened concerns in Western capitals about its and Moscow's ambitions in Africa.This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Julia Steers, VICE News’ correspondent in Nairobi, about her investigations into Wagner's activities in Africa and Ukraine. They talk about the group's origins and activities on the continent and what Russia and its African partners hope to gain from Wagner’s presence. They also discuss why Western governments are worried about Wagner's growing influence, and why the company is often seen as a useful partner for governments that have asked them to deploy. For more, check out Crisis Group's analysis on Russia's influence and Wagner's activities in Central African Republic and in Mali. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On 18-19 February, the African Union (AU) held its annual heads of state summit in the AU Headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This event marked the culmination of a year of active diplomatic engagements across the African continent against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and its global fallout. The two-day summit was highly anticipated. The continent is facing an array of outside actors jostling for influence as global divisions mount, a multitude of conflicts and crises internally, and an insecure financial future, with much of its funding coming from external backers such as the European Union and their shifting priorities. In order to better tackle the challenges facing the continent in the years ahead, many observers are now calling for fast-tracking the institutional reforms of the AU.This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Crisis Group’s senior adviser to the AU, about the highlights of the 2023 AU Summit, the union’s overall progress and the challenges facing it. They discuss the AU's bid for permanent African seats on the UN Security Council and its possible accession to the G20. They also dive into the AU's position against coups, the crisis in the Great Lakes region and its mediating role in the conflict in Ethiopia. They touch on the organisation’s original ambition, its focus on peace and security, as well as the structural impediments it faces, such as member state sovereignty, decision-making difficulties and external funding. Finally, they discuss ways in which the AU can adapt to better fulfil its mandate.For more in-depth analysis of some of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Africa Program page, and our briefing Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2023. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Abdi Latif Dahir, East Africa correspondent for The New York Times, about the political landscape of several East African countries. They talk about President Museveni's long-lasting hold on power in Uganda and what to make of his son and potential successor, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, whose provocative statements on social media have sparked widespread attention and scrutiny. They take stock of Kenya's state of affairs, the Ruto presidency, and how borrowing from China has been burdening the country and its citizens. They also discuss Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan's early tenure as well as the future of Somalia. Finally, they touch on the regional response to the war in Ukraine and why some countries in Eastern Africa have been reluctant to take sides in the conflict. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out Abdi’s work inThe New York Times, including his recent article: “A Wild Card’: Son of Uganda’s President Jostles to Succeed His Father”, as well as our program page for the Horn of Africa. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Sudanese military and a coalition of major civilian actors signed a framework agreement on 5 December 2022, paving a path to a new civilian government more than a year after the military seized full power in an October 2021 coup. While the new deal has raised hopes that Sudan's long political impasse could be nearing an end, it has also received its fair share of criticism. Many viewed the negotiations as too exclusive, and the deal thus far excludes former rebels and others. Without broader support, many have argued that a new government could ultimately lack legitimacy.This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Guma Kunda Komey, a former peace adviser to Sudan's last prime minister, about the politics of the negotiations over forming a new civilian government in Sudan. They talk about the effects of the military coup in late 2021 that saw the military take full control of the country and subsequent efforts to get the country’s political transition back on track. They discuss the December 2022 framework agreement, how it was reached, as well as the criticisms that have arisen around the deal, the challenges facing its implementation and its perceived lack of inclusiveness. They also discuss the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement, whether it was a good deal, and what it would take to strike a peace deal with Sudan's remaining rebel movements.For more in-depth analysis of some of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our latest statement “A Critical Window to Bolster Sudan’s Next Government” and our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Over the past few months, Somali government forces have consolidated gains against Al-Shabaab in a large-scale offensive in central regions. The offensive was initiated by clans rising up against the group, which the government in turn sought to nurture and expand. While the government troops have made advances against the militant group, consolidating those gains and delivering on authorities’ promises to local communities will remain a significant challenge. Prospects for engagement with the insurgents has also taken a back seat amid the current fighting, even as Al-Shabaab has in the past shown to be a flexible and resilient actor. In the background, a festering humanitarian situation remains dire as a fifth failed rainy season has brought Somalia closer to famine. This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's senior analyst for Eastern Africa, about the latest developments regarding the offensive against Al-Shabaab, following recent fieldwork. After reviewing the circumstances leading up to the offensive, they discuss the government's strategy to involve local militias in the fight and the challenges this could present. They also assess how Al-Shabaab has responded and whether the federal government is any closer to exploring potential political dialogue with the jihadist group. Finally, they take a look at the status of federal-regional government reconciliation efforts amid upcoming political issues.For more in-depth analysis of some of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Somalia country page and our report from last year, Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In August, the White House unveiled a new strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa focused on promoting open societies, democracy and security, while increasing U.S. efforts to help Africa combat Covid-19 and adapt to climate change. Meanwhile, the U.S. remains active in the crises in the Horn of Africa, including the peace process in Ethiopia, resolving the political impasse in Sudan and countering Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Yet, America's role has also shifted amid a changing world, especially as Washington increasingly engages with other regional powers, including in the Middle East, about Horn of Africa affairs.This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Molly Phee, U.S. assistant secretary of state for African affairs, about how the Biden administration envisions partnership with African countries and Africa's role on the global stage. They talk about the administration's approach to great-power competition in relation to Africa, as well as the increasing role of regional powers, including from the Gulf. They then discuss the Ethiopia peace process, the role of Eritrea, and U.S. efforts to broker a new political deal in Sudan. They also examine whether the U.S. supports eventual political talks with Al-Shabaab in Somalia, what to do about South Sudan, U.S.-Kenya relations, and the continued and controversial use of U.S. sanctions as a diplomatic lever. Phee then previews the upcoming U.S.-Africa summit next week in Washington. For more in-depth analysis of some of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Africa program page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Last week, Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi held a meeting with Rwandan Foreign Minister Vincent Biruta and other African leaders in Angola to agree on a ceasefire in eastern DR Congo. The situation there has been deteriorating rapidly in recent weeks, with militants from the M23 group making significant headway against Congolese forces, threatening to overrun the regional capital of Goma and prompting the East African Community (EAC) to deploy a force to the region. Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame and members of the M23 were notably absent from the recent meeting in Luanda, raising concerns that any agreement without their involvement might not be sustainable in the long run.This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell speaks with Crisis Group consultant Richard Moncrieff about the flare-up in violence in eastern Congo and how the conflict could develop. They talk about the M23’s recent advances in eastern Congo, Rwanda’s role in the conflict and the ongoing rivalry between Kinshasa and Kigali. They also discuss Kenya’s increased diplomatic and military involvement in the DR Congo. Finally, they address the declining popularity of the UN peacekeeping mission in the DR Congo and how African leadership has stepped up to address regional security challenges.For more in-depth analysis on the situation in the DR Congo, make sure to check out our DR Congo country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.On 2 November, the Ethiopian federal government and Tigrayan forces reached an agreement to cease hostilities and end almost two years of bloody war in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region. The truce came after the Ethiopian army, together with Eritrean troops and forces from the Amhara region, which borders Tigray, made rapid advances into Tigray over recent weeks. It raises hopes that peace in Tigray might be within reach and that the region’s humanitarian crisis – amplified by a federal blockade on aid throughout much of the war – can finally be addressed. However, peace talks did not include Eritrea, despite its involvement in the war, and the deal includes no provisions about what will happen to the Eritrean forces in Tigray. It does involve other major concessions for the Tigrayans, who agreed to fully disarm within a month.  In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa director, to talk about the cessation of hostilities and its implications. They talk about the events leading to the truce, Ethiopia’s recent offensive in the Tigray region, Eritrea’s involvement in the conflict and how all sides are likely to view and respond to the agreement. They address the role of the African Union and its envoy, former Nigerian President Olesugun Obasanjo, in brokering the agreement. They also talk about the influence of external actors in Ethiopia and how the support of countries like the United Arab Emirates and Türkiye for the Ethiopian government shaped battlefield dynamics. They ask what went wrong with a transition in Ethiopia that had generated enormous optimism in its early years, and what the coming years might bring for politics in the Horn of Africa at a moment of considerable flux. For more on the situation in Ethiopia, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ethiopia country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The contemporary rivalry between Eritrea and Tigray goes back several decades. After an almost-17-year-long civil war starting in the mid-1970s, the Eritrean EPLF and Tigrayan TPLF jointly defeated Ethiopia’s Derg regime in 1991, resulting in Eritrea’s independence and the TPLF taking power in Ethiopia. Despite their joint achievement, their already-complicated relations soon started to sour. A growing power struggle, as well as unresolved territorial disputes between the two sides, led to a deadly border war lasting from 1998 to 2000. Meanwhile, an increasingly repressive Eritrean regime found itself regionally and globally isolated. A new administration in Ethiopia under Abiy Ahmed signed a peace agreement with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in 2018, formally ending the border war. However, this rapprochement between Addis Ababa and Asmara also appeared to pave the way for Ethiopia’s civil war, with Eritrea allying with Ethiopia’s federal government in the war against Tigrayan forces in northern Ethiopia that started in 2020.In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, to take a deep dive into the long and tumultuous relationship between Eritrea and Tigray to understand Eritrea’s motives and objectives in the Ethiopian conflict. They talk about the origins of the relations between the EPLF and the TPLF and their shared struggle against Ethiopia’s Derg regime from the 1970s to 1991. They unpack how relations between the two sides soured in a struggle for power and authority, culminating in the deadly border clashes starting in 1998. They also discuss how Eritrean President Afwerki’s motivations in the conflict in northern Ethiopia have shifted over time. Finally, they talk about how to navigate Eritrea’s role while trying to end the conflict in Tigray.  Please note that this episode was recorded before the 2 November truce agreement between Ethiopia’s federal government and Tigray’s leaders.For more in-depth analysis on Ethiopia and Eritrea, make sure to check out our Horn of Africa regional page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

COP27 will be hosted on the African continent this year and presents a unique opportunity to bring more attention to the already devastating impact of climate change on African countries. While the Global North is producing the majority of emissions driving climate change, its fallout is disproportionately felt in the Global South. Meanwhile, the potential links between climate change as a potential driver for conflict remain largely neglected. To prevent and mitigate climate-induced crises and security risks on the continent, closer cooperation between African leaders and the international community is becoming increasingly urgent.This week on The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable with Nazanine Moshiri, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for climate and security in Africa, Robert Muthami, climate change policy expert at the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung in Kenya, and Hafsa Maalim, an associate senior researcher with SIPRI, on how African leadership can shape the agenda of this year’s COP27. They discuss the ways in which African leaders and civil society actors take action to mitigate the impact of climate change on the continent and how the international community, particularly the Global North, can help them tackle these challenges. They also address the importance of placing climate-induced security risks higher on the agenda in the COP27 negotiations and highlight the ways in which climate change can potentially drive and shape conflict in African countries.This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.You can find out latest publications on climate change and conflict on our COP27 page. For more about this topic, make sure to also check out Crisis Group’s Future of Conflict Program page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Horn of Africa is in a tumultuous period. Armed conflict has returned to Ethiopia’s Tigray region after a humanitarian truce between the federal government and Tigrayan leaders collapsed in August. A political impasse between the military leadership and the civilian pro-democracy movement in Sudan has paralysed the country’s political transition. Meanwhile, the younger generation in the region has become increasingly frustrated with their political leadership and lack of democratic participation. Facing a myriad crises, regional and external actors, including the African Union, European Union and United States, have struggled to facilitate sustainable political progress and stability in the region.In this episode of The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with expert guests Aleu Garang, head of the mediation support unit at the International Authority on Development, Kholood Khair, an independent analyst, and Simon Mulongo, former MP in Uganda and former deputy head of the AU mission to Somalia, about conflicts, crises and the evolving political landscape in the Horn of Africa. They speak about the recent return to armed conflict in northern Ethiopia and how that might affect regional politics. They also assess the prospect of regional and outside actors promoting stability for countries in the Horn. They address the youth’s striving to be integrated into regional politics and how that might affect political change over time. Finally, they talk about finding pathways out of the conflicts and crises in the region.This episode of The Horn is produced in partnership with the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.For more in-depth analysis on the Horn of Africa check out our Horn of Africa regional page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.Just a few months back, a humanitarian truce in Ethiopia offered a glimmer of hope that an end might be in sight to the war in and around the country’s northern Tigray region. Fighting pitted the federal government, forces from the Amhara region, bordering Tigray, and Eritrean troops on one hand, against Tigrayan forces on the other. In March, the federal government and Tigrayan leaders announced a cessation of hostilities. Formal peace talks were supposed to follow. But the last few weeks have seen the truce collapse and conflict resume across several front lines, with Tigrayan leaders accusing Eritrean forces of advancing en masse. The return to the battlefield marks another nasty turn in a war that has had a catastrophic human toll – a UN report this week points to war crimes by all sides – but garners relatively little international attention. This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood catches up with Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Ethiopia William Davison to make sense of what’s happening. They discuss why the truce failed to hold over the summer, and notably why Tigrayan leaders chafe at the federal government’s refusal to restore basic services – electricity, telecommunications and banking – in Tigray. They talk about the war’s human toll and this past week’s UN human rights experts’ report. They examine the thorny challenges to peace talks, especially the disputed territory of Western Tigray, part of the region since the 1990s but captured by Amhara forces in the war’s early days. They talk about Eritrea’s role and whether the Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki would accept any deal that left the Tigrayan leadership in place. They also talk about both sides’ apparent goals – for the Ethiopian government and allied forces, subduing the Tigrayan leadership; for Tigrayan forces, breaking the siege – and why neither is likely to prevail militarily any time soon. Finally, they discuss the prospects for bringing the parties back to the table, and what foreign diplomats involved can do.For more on the situation in Tigray, check out Crisis Group’s recent statement: Avoiding the Abyss as War Resumes in Northern Ethiopia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The African continent is facing a multitude of challenges ranging from food and commodity insecurity worsened by the war in Ukraine, to the climate crisis, strong economic headwinds and ongoing deadly conflict in various areas. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has accelerated global political trends unravelling the prevailing order, putting African countries increasingly in the crossfire of geopolitical tussles. Multilateral institutions like the United Nations are struggling to keep up with the flux between crises. This week on The Horn, in the new season’s first episode, Alan talks with Comfort Ero, Crisis Group’s president and CEO, to discuss what Africa’s role in a reformed international system might look like. They discuss some of the imbalances of the current order and what the prospects are for a stronger African voice on the world stage. They talk about challenges facing the African Union, what UN Security Council reforms could look like and Africa’s upcoming hosting of the COP27 conference in November. They assess how diplomats can best push for peace amid this unstable status quo, as well as ways for African leaders to address some of Africa’s – and the world’s – most pressing issues.You can also listen back to The Horn’s opening episode of Season 2 – two years ago – when Comfort Ero also joined Alan to talk about Peace and Conflict in Africa, Then and Now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Kenyans went to the polls last week in what turned out to be a closely fought but so far strikingly peaceful election. After six tense days of vote counting, Deputy President Ruto was declared Kenya’s next President with a wafer-thin majority. While the election has been broadly regarded as free and fair, his challenger, Raila Odinga, a political heavyweight backed by outgoing President and former rival Uhuru Kenyatta, has launched a legal challenge to the results. This week in a special episode of The Horn, Alan speaks to Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Program Director for Africa, to discuss how Kenya’s nail-biting election has shaped up and the possible fallout of Odinga’s challenge. They outline both candidates' backgrounds and assess their respective campaigns in the build-up to election day. They talk about the significance of Odinga’s challenge to the vote, the role of Kenya’s electoral commission and the resilience of the country's democratic institutions in the wake of the election. They also assess how far ethnic divisions have played a role in the outcome of the election and where Kenya’s democracy might be headed if Ruto’s presidency is confirmed by the Supreme Court.For more analysis, check out Crisis Group’s Kenya country page.We want to hear from you as we start preparing Season Four of The Horn! If you have any feedback or suggestions for topics you’d like us to cover next season, you can write to [email protected] or get in touch with Alan directly on Twitter, @AlanBoswell. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

To mark the end of Season Three of The Horn, Alan discusses a few major developments in the region with Crisis Group experts. First up, he speaks to William Davison, Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, to discuss the prospect for possible peace talks in Ethiopia after the humanitarian ceasefire declared in March between federal and Tigrayan forces. They discuss the recent welcome steps towards peace talks, the remaining hurdles towards holding such negotiations and the major obstacles that any peace talks will need to overcome. They also discuss Ethiopia’s deteriorating economic situation and the ongoing insurgency in the Oromia region.Next, Alan speaks with Nelleke van de Walle, Project Director for the Great Lakes region, to discuss Kenya’s recent diplomatic foray in the eastern DR Congo and how it is reshaping regional politics. Alan and Nelleke discuss the factors behind the warming ties between Kinshasa and Nairobi and the reasons for Kenya’s recent initiatives towards the DR Congo. They discuss the proposal for the East African Community to deploy a joint force under Kenyan command to fight armed groups in the eastern DR Congo, and they unpack the recent peace talks Nairobi hosted between Congolese authorities and armed groups. They also chat about how the looming presidential election in Kenya could impact Nairobi’s future diplomatic role. Finally, Alan talks to Nazanine Moshiri, Senior Analyst for Climate & Security in Africa. They break down the impact of the devastating historic drought hitting much of the Horn region. Nazanine explains which parts of the region are worst hit and outlines how this crisis is exacerbated by the global commodity shocks, which are driving up food prices as well. They also highlight the worrying repercussions, from major displacement to land disputes and intercommunal conflict. Back from recent visits to the northern Great Rift Valley and Laikipia county in Kenya, Nazanine talks about how the drought is upending life there and how the climate shocks are intermixing with rising political tensions and violence ahead of Kenya’s elections.For more analysis, check out Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa and Great Lakes regional pages.We want to hear from you! As Season Three of The Horn draws to a close, If you have any feedback or suggestions for topics you’d like us to cover next season, you can write to [email protected] or get in touch with Alan directly on Twitter, @AlanBoswell. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Kenya from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!. Kenya’s presidential race has been turned upside down. After a high-profile split with President Kenyatta, his deputy William Ruto – despite being in government for the last nine years – is running on an anti-establishment platform. Having distanced himself from Kenyatta, Ruto is positioning himself as a man of the people, or the “hustler in chief”, opposing the political elite. Meanwhile, his main rival Raila Odinga – for decades an opposition leader and fierce critic of the government – has been endorsed by Kenyatta, thus becoming the establishment candidate. At the same time, while previous Kenyan polls have been shaped mostly by ethnic politics, the 2022 race has also seen economic issues come to the fore, with Ruto promising wide-ranging reforms. Whatever its outcome, the election matters not just in Kenya, but for the entire region, riddled by war and crises.This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director, Murithi Mutiga, to talk about the campaign thus far and what to expect from the election. They discuss how things got so bitter between Kenyatta and Ruto, and what the bad blood might mean for the outcome of the vote. They talk about the main issues dominating the election, as Ruto plays on people’s economic frustrations and Odinga portrays himself as a unifier. They also discuss the risks of a disputed outcome, in a country that has suffered terrible bloodshed after contested results in the past. They look at the impact on Kenyan politics of indictments against Kenyatta and Ruto by the International Criminal Court, which were dropped in 2014 and 2016 respectively. They also look at how Nairobi views the war in Ukraine and the impact of the commodities crisis that war has triggered.For more on the situation in Kenya, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Kenya country page, including our recent briefing “Kenya’s 2022 Election: High Stakes”. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Somalia has been fighting the Al-Shabaab jihadist insurgency for well over a decade. After reclaiming control of Mogadishu and other cities in the early 2010s, government forces – with the support of African Union troops – have made limited progress since. Instead, Al-Shabaab has adopted guerilla tactics and managed to consolidate control of rural areas, while regularly conducting deadly attacks on Somali cities. A recent Crisis Group report recommended that stakeholders should at least begin to explore the feasibility of eventual political talks with Al-Shabaab, alongside pursuing existing military operations, to add another tool in the struggle to bring the longstanding conflict to an end.This week on The Horn, Alan talks to Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for East Africa, to discuss the risks and opportunities that this approach might incur. They assess the strengths and limitations of the military campaign against Al-Shabaab and its prospects for success, as African Union forces inch closer to the end of their mandate in the country. They discuss previous attempts to engage Al-Shabaab and the group’s willingness for dialogue. They talk about the impact of multiple failed rainy seasons in Somalia and the need for humanitarian assistance that reaches populations in both government and insurgent-controlled areas. They also discuss the wider implications of Somalia’s Al-Shabaab outlook in the region, including how the country’s neighbours and international partners might respond to the prospect of engagement with a self-professed al-Qaeda affiliate.Check out Crisis Group’s report, “Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia”, in full to learn more about the situation in Somalia and efforts to bring the conflict to an end. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected on the slogan: “Somalia at peace with itself and at peace with the world”. As Somalia’s former leader returns to power after five years, the country faces immense challenges. For one, the Islamist group Al-Shabaab continues to control significant swathes of territory, as the new leadership tries to regain ground and make improvements in the security sector. Looking beyond Somalia’s borders, Hassan Sheikh has promised a reset in foreign policy, seeking to mend ties with both its neighbours and traditional partners further afield in the Gulf and the West.This week on The Horn, Alan talks to Abdi Aynte, a former journalist who served as Somalia’s Minister of Planning and International Cooperation in Hassan Sheikh’s previous administration between the years 2015 and 2017. Joining from Mogadishu, Abdi talks about the mood in the capital after a protracted election process and people's hopes for what the new presidency might bring. They dissect President Farmajo’s record over the last five years, and discuss the prospects for improving the country’s security outlook amid the stalemate with Al-Shabaab. In terms of foreign policy, they discuss the numerous issues facing the incoming administration in the Horn and further afield, from repatriating 5,000 Somali soldiers stranded in Eritrea, to finalising the country’s international debt relief program.For more, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Somalia country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Many African countries are suffering from the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: disrupted wheat supplies, soaring prices for industrial goods and raw materials, as well as a shifting of the world’s attention from the needs of the Global South. At the same time, African diplomacy on the Ukraine war has been mostly muted. While a lot of media coverage is given to the handful of countries with close ties to Moscow, most African states have chosen not to voice a strong position on the war, focusing on priorities closer to home. Strategic considerations and the need to appease international partners, including China, are also driving this ambivalence — a reality still poorly understood by many Western policymakers.This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Dr. Hassan Khannenje, director at the HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies based in Nairobi. They talk about how the continent views Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and why not all African countries have bought into the West’s perspective on the war. They discuss Africa’s place in the world order and how its foreign policy is driven by a mixture of both ideological commitment to non-alignment and strategic interests, as it continues to tread a careful line on the Ukraine war.For more on the Ukraine war, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Russia’s relations with Africa are under even greater scrutiny in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine and amid the mixed reaction of African states toward the new war in Europe. Over recent years, Moscow has bolstered ties with countries all over the continent, particularly those plagued by internal violence and disillusioned with Western powers. Russia remains a leading arms supplier and Russian private military contractors continue to expand their presence, most recently in Mali. Whether Russia is successfully pursuing a broader strategy, or merely engaging in tactical power plays, remains a matter of debate. Russia has long sought a naval base on the Red Sea and wields its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council for influence on the continent. This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Samuel Ramani, author of an upcoming book on Russia in Africa. They talk about Russia’s historic goals and current strategy on the continent, differing reactions to the invasion of Ukraine, and why some African leaders pursue closer relations with Russia. They also discuss the new significance of African relations for Moscow today and how the war in Ukraine is already changing power dynamics on the continent. For more on the Ukraine War, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire!. After almost seventeen months of devastating civil war in Ethiopia, the federal government on 24 March announced what it called a humanitarian truce. The offer would ostensibly allow aid into Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, which has, in effect, been under a blockade for months and where millions face what the UN describes as a serious lack of food. The government’s unilateral truce declaration comes after its offensive in late 2021 pushed back Tigrayan forces, who had advanced to within striking distance of the capital Addis Ababa – the latest about-face in a war that has seen the balance of force between federal troops and Tigrayan rebels swing back and forth. It also comes alongside other signals that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may have tempered his initial goal of crushing Tigray’s leadership. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood, Naz Modirzadeh and William Davison, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Ethiopia, discuss the causes and significance of the government's proposal. They map out the military dynamics on the ground and the evolving calculations of Tigrayan leaders, Prime Minister Abiy, other Ethiopian protagonists in the conflict and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, whose forces were also fighting alongside the federal troops against the Tigrayans. They talk about the role of foreign powers in supporting President Abiy Ahmed and in pushing for peace and break down how regional relations are shaping the conflict. They ask how optimistic we should be that the truce eases Tigray’s humanitarian disaster or even serves as a foundation for peace talks and how such talks might surmount the thorniest obstacles – notably resolving a territorial dispute in Western Tigray – to a political settlement.  For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Extreme weather events in Africa are becoming increasingly common, often striking in areas already prone to insecurity and scarcity. While the relationship between climate and security is both complex and context-specific, the broad risks are clear: modelling shows that temperature increases of as little as half a degree could, in some contexts, lead to a 10-20 per cent increase in the risk of violence. Erratic weather has already contributed to conflicts across the Horn – from Somalia to Kenya and South Sudan – a clear demonstration of climate change’s impact as a threat multiplier, exacerbating insecurity and existing tensions.This week on The Horn, guest host Nicolas Delaunay, Crisis Group’s senior communications officer for Africa, is joined by Nazanine Moshiri, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for climate & security, to untangle this complex relationship and its implications for the continent. They break down how changing weather patterns and natural disasters have shaped, and sometimes triggered, conflicts in Somalia, Kenya and South Sudan, often in very different ways. They also discuss the need for better adaptation measures and ask how Africa can best reckon with climate change, stressing the urgency of putting climate security on the agenda ahead of COP27. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, make sure to check out our Climate Change and Conflict page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Africa’s response to the Ukraine crisis has been far from united. Emerging rifts were on stark display during the historic UN General Assembly session in early March: only around half of African states supported the resolution’s denunciation of Russian aggression. Where some countries robustly condemned the invasion as a flagrant violation of crucial norms, others were more hesitant, often highlighting the West’s inconsistent commitment to those very principles.This week on The Horn, guest host Elissa Jobson talks with Philani Mthembu, executive director at the South Africa-based Institute for Global Dialogue, to make sense of these disparate responses to the Ukraine war. They discuss the division at the UN, perceptions of both the conflict and Russia across the continent more broadly, and how the historical legacies of colonialism and liberation struggles inform views on contemporary geopolitics. They talk about perceived Western double standards, and about how both the racist treatment of African and Asian refugees and media coverage of the conflict reinforce these narratives. They also sketch out the war’s economic and diplomatic implications and ask how Africa can forge a united continental position to better shield itself from the fallout.For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, visit our Ukraine regional page, and make sure to read our recent commentary: “The Ukraine War: A Global Crisis?”, for perspectives from around the world. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.