The Horn

Sudan has been at a political impasse since a military coup in October removed the civilian-led government that had been leading the country's transition since the toppling of Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Attempts at wrangling a new power-sharing agreement with the military have so far failed to break the deadlock: a deal with former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok proved fruitless, prompting him to resign in early January. Meanwhile, Sudanese people have mobilised in huge numbers across the country, demanding the military relinquish control of government and calling for a complete overhaul of the status quo.  This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Kholood Khair, managing partner at Insight Strategy Partners, to make sense of this shifting political landscape. They talk about the key developments since the coup, both in Khartoum and throughout the country, the ways in which established political actors involved in the transition have responded, and the dynamic forms of civilian mobilisation that are disrupting established political norms. They also delve into the origins, impact and demands of resistance committees and question whether there is any way of bringing these various actors together to break Sudan’s crippling political impasse and chart a path to democracy. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Sudan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The project of forging a more united Horn of Africa has been a clear victim of the myriad crises rippling through East Africa. Regional security infrastructure has collapsed and attempts at multilateral conflict resolution have floundered. For its part, the body responsible for ensuring regional security, the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), has become dysfunctional and seems incapable of fulfilling its peace and security mandate.This week we are bringing you a special episode of The Horn produced in partnership with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES). Alan is joined by expert guests, Charles Onyango-Obbo, veteran Ugandan journalist, Betty Kaari Murungi, a Kenyan lawyer with wide regional experience, and Harry Verhoeven, an author and scholar at Columbia University, for a panel discussion on IGAD and the collapse of multilateral cooperation in the Horn. They talk about IGAD’s roots as an organisation tackling desertification and drought, the role of key players within this regional forum, continuing wariness toward outside actors and the recent political dynamics that have contributed to inaction and lethargy. They ask whether there is any way of reversing the region's political fragmentation and building a lasting order that can stem the flow of deadly conflict. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Recent weeks have seen yet another major turn of events in Ethiopia’s civil war. Only a month ago, the momentum was firmly on the Tigray side after an advance toward the capital. In response, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed exhorted citizens to enlist and vowed to lead a counteroffensive from the frontlines. Foreign governments also swooped in with support, especially drones, which altered the conflict’s dynamics. Federal and allied regional forces have thus pushed back the Tigray forces, turning momentum once again and staving off any assault on Addis Ababa. Still, there are few reasons to expect a swift resolution: the Tigrayans have since had their own resurgence and there is little political appetite for dialogue.This week, Alan talks to William Davison, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, to make sense of where the current political and military dynamics now stand, following the dizzying twists and turns in the war. They take stock of the current balance of military power between the different sides, discuss the counteroffensive’s success, the impact of government drone strikes and Abiy’s relationship with foreign actors ranging from the Gulf states to China and the U.S. They also talk about the prospects for an elusive resolution to the conflict and what could prevent the civil war from grinding on for many more months and possibly years.For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page. Make sure to take a look at Crisis Group’s recent statement ‘Time to End Ethiopia’s Unwinnable War’. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The African Union’s mission (AMISOM) has operated in Somalia for close to fifteen years. Initial military successes have led to a stalemate on the battlefield, as the military coalition of regional African troops has struggled to permanently degrade jihadist insurgent group Al-Shabaab. Frustration is mounting, both in Somalia and abroad. The Somali government, led by Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmajo”, has consistently called for an accelerated transition. International actors, saddled with the bulk of costs, are growing ever more wary of funding the mission without a clearer exit plan. Still, there are no easy options. Immediate withdrawal would almost certainly see Al-Shabaab make significant gains.This week, Alan is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Somalia Omar Mahmood to discuss the beleaguered mission and the pressing need for reform. They talk through AMISOM’s mixed record, the possible consequences of a sudden withdrawal, the central and complicated roles played by Ethiopia and Kenya, Somali attitudes toward the mission and the bitter international disputes surrounding AMISOM’S funding. They also talk about the wider challenges facing Somalia and the missing political pieces preventing a smoother pullout by the African Union troops.For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Somalia page. Make sure to check out Crisis Group's recent briefing ‘Reforming the AU Mission in Somalia’.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Even the most seasoned observers have been stunned by Ethiopia’s recent twists and turns. The first shock came in 2018, when the country saw a peaceful transfer of power to a coalition led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. For some, this promised a turning point for a country that had long struggled to open its political space and find a workable political model that balanced its strong state with regional demands for ethnic autonomy. This optimism did not last. Ethiopia has since been plunged into a deadly civil war that threatens the very integrity of the state. Only weeks ago, Tigray forces captured towns in the direction of Addis Ababa, leading some foreigners to evacuate the capital.This week, Alan is joined by Ethiopia expert Christopher Clapham, an author on the Horn of Africa and retired professor at the University of Cambridge, to take a deep dive into the country’s complex history. They discuss the legacy of Ethiopia’s imperial past, Ethiopia’s exceptional resistance to European colonial rule, the lingering effects of the Derg’s violent revolution, and the contradictions inside former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s vision for ethnic federalism. They also talk about the breakdown of the Ethiopian regime after Meles’s death, the “miracle” of Abiy’s ascent, the slide into civil war and the possible scenarios for Ethiopia’s political future as the military tide turns against the government.You can find more of Crisis Group’s work on our Ethiopia page. Make sure to check out Professor Clapham’s latest book The Horn of Africa: State Formation and State Decay for more fascinating insights. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Somalia from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire!. This week, as Ethiopia’s civil war enters its second year, Tigrayan rebels captured the strategically placed cities of Dessie and Kombolcha, only hours away from the country’s capital Addis Ababa. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed imposed a state of emergency and exhorted citizens to take up arms to defend the capital. With Tigrayan forces at striking distance, is an all-out assault on the capital imminent?This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior Ethiopia Analyst William Davison to discuss what might happen next. They discuss the factors explaining Tigrayan forces’ offensive, the strain on Ethiopia’s federal forces and the impact of Tigrayan gains on Prime Minister Abiy’s position and his ruling party. They look at the war’s international dimensions: Eritrea’s continued involvement, how Djibouti might respond were Tigrayan forces able to reach the Djiboutian border and seek to open supply lines, and the risk Sudan gets sucked in. They discuss what an assault on the capital by Tigrayan forces might entail and how that can be averted. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page and read our latest briefing Ethiopia’s Civil War: Cutting a Deal to Stop the Bloodshed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sudan’s political order is crumbling. On 25 October, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and other senior officers ousted the country’s civilian government. A week on, it is unclear whether Sudan’s fragile transition can be salvaged. While vast demonstrations condemning the power grab pose a serious challenge to the generals, a coalition of military leaders and armed groups have closed ranks in support of the coup. Meanwhile, few Sudanese desire a return to a troubled status quo that struggled to deliver promised reforms. This week Alan is joined by Magdi el-Gizouli, a fellow at the Rift Valley Institute, to make sense of the labyrinthine world of Sudanese politics and ask what happens next. They talk about the resistance facing the military and other armed factions, the defiant new form of popular politics emerging on the streets, the rural-urban divide threatening the country’s political stability and the deep economic interests obstructing reform. They ask what a possible deal to end the political impasse could look like, question whether such a deal would be accepted on Khartoum’s streets and discuss the major risks facing the country if attempts at resolution fail. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on the Sudan page and read our statement ‘Reversing Sudan’s Dangerous Coup’. Make sure to take a look at stillsudan.blogspot.com for more of Magdi’s writings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Civil activists in Africa face increasingly strong headwinds. States continue to use tried-and-tested repression alongside increasingly sophisticated forms of legal and financial pressure to limit the influence of the continent’s activists. Despite these obstacles, Africa is brimming with energy, as showcased during the COVID-19 pandemic, yet this political activism does not always follow the path of the formal civil society organisations that Western support has flowed to since the 1990s. This week, Alan is joined by L. Muthoni Wanyeki, the Open Society Foundation’s Africa Director, to talk about this mixed picture. They discuss the successes of popular movements in Sudan, the tragic fate of South Sudan, the conspicuous lack of an anti-war movement in Ethiopia and the challenges posed by mounting authoritarianism in Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda. Alan asks whether the model for civil society organising needs to change and Muthoni argues that we can empower activists by reforming African philanthropy and building a better framework for dialoguing with state actors.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Somalia from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire!. Many people in the Somali capital Mogadishu watched with apprehension as the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan. Could Somalia, struggling against its own Islamist insurgency – Al-Shabaab – face a similar fate? In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Somalia, to discuss the resurgence of Al-Shabaab as political instability wracks the country and the withdrawal of African Union troops potentially looms. They discuss the state of the insurgency, the capability of Somali defence forces, the troubled relationship between the central government and Somalia’s regions, and the role of East African and other foreign powers. They also talk about whether there is any hope of a political settlement with Al-Shabaab. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Somalia and Horn of Africa pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As the twenty-year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks approaches, this last instalment of The Horn’s mini-series about jihadism along the Swahili coast explores two decades of the “war on terror” and how they affected the Horn of Africa. Alan Boswell welcomes a panel including Crisis Group’s Murithi Mutiga, project director for the Horn of Africa, the BBC’s Mary Harper and Boston University Professor Michael Woldemariam to discuss how East Africa’s politics changed as Western policy toward the region shifted to its overriding focus on security concerns and counter-terrorism above all elseThey discuss the U.S. efforts to counter jihadism in East Africa prior to 9/11, and how the subsequent “war on terror” shifted politics across the region, from the pressure put on the regime in Khartoum, to regime change in Somalia, to America’s securitised partnerships with Addis Ababa, Nairobi and Kampala, and the isolation of Eritrea. They also discuss Somalia’s fate, shifting U.S. priorities, and how the events in Ethiopia may affect regional counter-terrorism efforts moving forward. They also look at the recent Taliban takeover in Afghanistan and how this chain of events has emboldened jihadist groups in East Africa, particularly Al-Shabaab in Somalia.The Eastern Africa’s Jihadis series of The Horn is produced in partnership with Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.This episode also features in Crisis Group’s Special Coverage of the legacy of the 9/11 attacks and how the subsequent “war on terror” shaped global conflicts and crises. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As jihadist ideologies have spread across Eastern Africa, governments are struggling to counter their growth, while the militant movements themselves are divided between the competing franchises of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Meanwhile, the dominant jihadist group in the region, Al-Shabaab, is emboldened by the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan. What does the future hold?In this episode of The Horn’s mini-series, Alan Boswell and Rashid Abdi, former project director for the Horn of Africa at Crisis Group, connect the dots between the jihadist groups that have sprung up across the region. They discuss what the implications for other armed rebellions might be in the wake of the recent Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and what the endgame is for groups like Al-Shabaab seeking similar power. They also discuss whether al-Qaeda or the Islamic State have regional momentum in their competition against each other, and the challenges governments face in finding the right time to dialogue with the groups. Finally, Rashid argues why regional cooperation can only go so far in countering the jihadist threat.The Eastern Africa’s Jihadis series of The Horn is produced in partnership with Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The roots of militancy in northern Mozambique go back years, but the insurgency’s true extent didn’t catch the world’s attention until the Cabo Delgado attacks earlier this year. Meanwhile, a humanitarian crisis worsens and neighbouring countries are deploying troops to help reverse the threat. As yet, however, there is little progress toward resolving the conflict.In a new episode of The Horn’s mini-series, Alan Boswell and Dr. Adriano Nuvunga, a political science professor and executive director of the Center for Democracy and Development in Maputo, unpack how socio-economic marginalisation in resource-rich Cabo Delgado bred grievances that drove recruitment into a new militant group. They discuss what the Mozambican government should prioritise in its response, including tackling the humanitarian fallout, improving governance in the area and overseeing regional military assistance. Most critically, Dr. Nuvunga stresses that Mozambique and its partners should consider political dialogue over a purely military strategy in order to avoid another “forever war” on the continent. The Eastern Africa’s Jihadis series of The Horn is produced in partnership with Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.For more information, read Crisis Group’s report: Stemming the Insurrection in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Somalia’s Al-Shabaab insurgency was born of a strong nationalistic reaction to the Ethiopian invasion in 2006. Over the years since, the group has treaded a thin line between galvanising local support and tapping into the rhetoric of global jihadism, including through allegiance to al-Qaeda – a strategy that has seen it grow in prominence amid a governance vacuum.In this second instalment of a mini-series on jihadism across Eastern Africa, Alan Boswell is joined by regional expert and former government adviser Samira Gaid for an in-depth look at Al-Shabaab’s origins and rise. Samira describes how the militants have embedded themselves in the dynamics of Somali politics – particularly through the clan system – to extend their reach across the country. She also explains why military efforts by Somalia and its international partners have failed to stem the insurgency, discusses whether political elites – embroiled in an electoral crisis – have the will to open a dialogue, and assesses how waning external support for stabilising Somalia could affect progress toward an eventual settlement to the conflict.The Eastern Africa’s Jihadis series of The Horn is produced in partnership with Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this first episode of The Horn’s special mini-series about jihadism along the Eastern African seaboard, Alan Boswell talks with historian and analyst Ngala Chome about how new ideologies East Africans brought back from the Middle East sowed the seeds of militant doctrines that took root within some communities amid a climate of political marginalisation.  They unpack the role of colonialism in the region and how Saudi Arabian scholarship funding gave youth an opportunity to establish themselves within social and political hierarchies. They also explore the kinship networks, established during East Africa’s days as a trading hub, that link the Swahili coast from southern Somalia to northern Mozambique. They discuss the domestic and transnational interplay of these militant ideologies with national and local politics, and the heavy-handed response from regional states since the start of the so-called Global War on Terror. The Eastern Africa’s Jihadis series of The Horn is produced in partnership with Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Last month, the war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region took a stunning turn as Tigrayan forces retook the regional capital Mekelle. This week, Alan Boswell talks with Declan Walsh, Chief Africa Correspondent for The New York Times, about his reporting at the moment federal forces evacuated Mekelle and his reflections as the conflict continues to escalate and spread.   Walsh offers an on-the-ground look at the Tigrayan forces, the dramatic turnaround in the conflict and how the federal government lost ground in the war. He also discusses his conversations with commanders and soldiers on both sides, while assessing prospects for bringing the conflict to a close. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week marks the tenth anniversary of South Sudan’s independence, much-celebrated at the time but now eclipsed by the brutal civil war that followed. The conflict, which saw the army split along ethnic lines, killed an estimated 400,000 people and displaced a third of the country’s population. A 2018 peace deal signed by the war’s two main protagonists, President Salva Kiir and his former Vice President Riek Machar, ended much of the fighting. But millions still suffer from chronic hunger and unchecked militia violence. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Alan Boswell, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for South Sudan, for an in-depth look at the past decade of statehood, the problems still blighting the world’s newest country and prospects for turning the page on the brutal civil war. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our South Sudan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In July 2011, South Sudan gained independence with immense international support. Achieving statehood was seen by many as the end of an unstable coexistence with Sudan, but the bloody decade that followed is testament to the dangers and difficulties of state-building. Joining Alan Boswell this week to reflect on South Sudan’s troubled ten-year journey is Dr. Luka Biong Deng Kuol, Dean of Academic Affairs at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies and former civil servant of Southern Sudan and Sudan. Dr. Luka shares his thoughts on what led to the young country’s descent into a devastating civil war and why its two main antagonists, Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, remain locked in zero-sum politics. They discuss what it would take for a leadership change in South Sudan, what constitution would suit the country best, and whether prospects for a much-needed reset are realistic as elections loom on the horizon. For more information:Explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our South Sudan page.See Dr. Luka Biong Deng Kuol’s reflections on the lessons of South Sudan’s first decade.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Earlier this week, fighters loyal to the ousted leaders of Ethiopia’s Tigray region recaptured Mekelle, the regional capital, as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed withdrew federal forces and announced a unilateral ceasefire after eight months of brutal war. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to William Davison, senior analyst for Ethiopia, about this dramatic turnaround, its immediate fallout and what may come next. William explains how Tigrayan forces managed to consolidate control in rural areas, build up forces thanks in large part to popular support and launch attacks on Tigrayan cities and towns. They look at the balance of power in Tigray today and the likelihood of further fighting between Tigrayan forces and those of Eritrea, who were fighting alongside the Ethiopian army. They also examine prospects for a Tigrayan offensive to capture back disputed territory currently held by the Amhara, another of Ethiopia’s ethnic groups. William explains how Abiy has portrayed the withdrawal of government troops and the potential implications of their retreat for his popularity in the rest of Ethiopia. They also discuss the importance of getting aid in and what international actors should focus on in the days ahead.For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Somaliland is enjoying a boost following parliamentary elections at the end of May that resulted in a surprise victory for the opposition. Dr. Mohamed Farah Hersi joins Alan Boswell to explain what this changing political dynamic means for the country as it continues its quest for recognition as an independent country.They discuss the strong bonds that hold Somaliland together in pursuit of external recognition, and how clan identity affects its national politics. Dr. Hersi also talks about the changes that need to be made in the negotiations between Somaliland and Somalia to make progress possible and how Somaliland has used its geographic position to secure alliances with the United Arab Emirates and Taiwan, altering the dynamics of the Horn of Africa region. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ethiopia is set to hold delayed elections on 21 June, a milestone that – before the ongoing war in the Tigray region – many observers believed would be a litmus test for the transition under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Violent flare-ups in various parts of the country, a poll boycott by some opposition groups and postponed votes in several locations all cast a shadow over the landmark election.Joining Alan for a discussion on what to expect from the process under these circumstances is William Davison, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Ethiopia. He unpacks the rising instability, including the growing insurgencies in the Benishangul-Gumuz and Oromia regions. They discuss how political parties are vying for support amid a surge in ethno-nationalism and the fierce debate over the constitutional structure. They also flesh out different post-election scenarios for Ethiopia given the many outstanding questions about how to resolve the country’s deep rifts.For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Crisis Group's podcast Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and guest co-host Comfort Ero, our Interim Vice President and Africa Program Director, talk to Crisis Group’s Deputy Africa Director Dino Mahtani about the insurrection unfolding in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado region. The militants - known locally as al-Shabab, and now labelled by the U.S. as a branch of the Islamic State - have been terrorising the population for years now without clearly stating their demands. Dino talks about who they really are and what their interests might be. He also discusses the Southern African Development Community (SADC) meeting in Maputo coming up in two weeks’ time, when the bloc plans to lobby for the deployment of a regional force, amid growing fears that the conflict could spread beyond the borders of Mozambique. Dino unpacks the government’s response to al-Shabab, its turn to Rwanda for military support as it attempts to diversify its security partners, and what the next steps should be. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In May, the High Court in Kenya overturned President Uhuru Kenyatta’s plan to make significant changes to the 2010 constitution, seen as one of the most progressive in Africa. Willy Mutunga, former Chief Justice of Kenya, talks to Alan Boswell about the court’s decision against the proposed referendum, also known as the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), and the political significance of the ruling, which emphasises the sovereignty of the Kenyan people.He explains why the independence of the Kenyan judiciary is at a crossroads, the pressures he faced as Chief Justice, and answers to critics who say Kenya’s court is “too activist”. They also discuss whether the government’s appeal of the BBI court case can succeed, and whether the government could still organise a referendum before the 2022 presidential elections. He also discusses whether he is concerned about a peaceful transfer of power or constitutional backsliding during the next administration. He then reflects on what it will take for younger generations to imagine and create a new Kenya.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Armed clashes along the al-Fashaga border between Sudan and Ethiopia are the latest twist in the up-and-down relationship between the two neighbouring African juggernauts. The border dispute, rooted in historical disagreements but now inflamed by the deterioration in ties between the two countries’ new leaders, could escalate into a regional crisis and is deepened by the recent pivot of Khartoum towards Cairo amidst Sudan’s concerns over Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project.Annette Weber, senior fellow with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, points to a loss in trust between the new governments in both Sudan and Ethiopia, the lack of effective communication channels between them and Addis Ababa’s new approach to the region as the main causes for the recent fallout. She talks about Sudan’s and Ethiopia’s diverging views on the soft border at al-Fashaga, the ongoing GERD dispute and the worrying rise of militias in both countries. She also discusses the future of Ethiopia’s recent alliance with Eritrea and the unclear fate of regional multilateralism. They then examine the EU’s new strategy towards the region and how U.S. re-engagement might affect the European approach. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tensions have been rising in Somalia since President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmajo” failed to hold elections in February. After Farmajo moved to extend his term by two years, the ongoing political crisis triggered clashes between security forces loyal to the president and the opposition in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. This turn of events forced President Farmajo to backtrack, says political and security analyst Mohamed Mubarak, but inherent lack of trust among stakeholders means the dispute continues. Mohamed says the crisis proves Somalia doesn’t really have a national army, as clans still hold the most sway. Despite these challenges, there is no political will to make much-needed changes to Somalia’s broader federal structure. He tells Alan that Somalia, pressured by the international community, has focused on anti-piracy and counter-terrorism operations, setting aside fundamental security issues and institution building. They also discuss why Al-Shabaab may be winning the battle for legitimacy, the barriers to seeking any political settlement with the group, the risk of civil war should the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) soon withdraw, and where Somalia’s state-building project should go from here. For more information:Read our recent Q&A: Why Somalia’s Electoral Crisis Has Tipped into Violence The Horn S2 E10: Somalia's Election Crisis The Horn S1 E22: Somali Politics Heat up, Again Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In September 2018, South Sudan signed a peace accord to end five years of civil war. However, the agreement remains extremely fragile, and over two years later key parts of the unity government between President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar – now Vice President – have not been constituted. According to Betty Bigombe, Uganda’s special envoy to South Sudan, the peace process suffers from an overemphasis on power sharing, a lack of political will and a region that has placed the peace process on the backburner.Betty joins Alan Boswell to examine the mediation process led by East Africa’s Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and why some claim the South Sudan people don’t own the deal. They also look at the role of Uganda and Sudan, former foes, in reconciling the two main parties. Betty tells Alan that a more inclusive national dialogue is needed that brings together the political elites, civil society and refugees. They also discuss whether IGAD should continue to lead the mediation process, the role of the African Union, and the future of Kiir and Machar.For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our South Sudan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The international community has long viewed Eritrea as a pariah state, yet the country’s influence is rising again in the turbulent Horn of Africa region. For more than a decade, Ethiopia and the West pushed the country’s regime under President Isaias Afwerki into survival mode. But with the political transition in Ethiopia, and Eritrea’s alliances with Gulf powers across the Red Sea, Asmara is once again looking to shape the region in its favour. Harry Verhoeven, a scholar on international politics in Africa, joins Alan Boswell to unpack Eritrea’s rising influence in the region and what it means for regional order and stability. They discuss President Isaias Afwerki’s survival techniques and his ties with the Gulf states. Harry also describes the complex alliance between Asmara and Addis Ababa amid the ongoing conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, and whether President Afwerki could be willing to withdraw Eritrean troops from Ethiopia for tactical purposes. They also look at escalating tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia and where the shifting power relations in the Horn of Africa are headed. For more information:The Horn S2 E3: Eritrea's One-man Rule. Harry Verhoeven and Philip Roessler, Why Comrades Go to War: Liberation Politics and the Outbreak of Africa's Deadliest Conflict, Oxford University Press. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Crisis Group's podcast Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood, Crisis Group’s interim president, and guest host Comfort Ero, our interim vice president and Africa Program director, talk to Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, about the fighting in Tigray and its implications for regional politics. Murithi sheds light on the calculations of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, rebel Tigray leaders and Eritrea, which has also sent forces into Tigray. He talks through the Horn of Africa’s evolving geopolitics, growing friction between Ethiopia and its neighbours, and the state of play of both Ethiopia’s and Sudan’s transitions. He looks at what continental and world leaders need to do to end the Tigray crisis and calm escalating regional tensions. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The death of President Magufuli, a populist authoritarian and COVID-denier, officially from a heart failure, raises questions about whether newly sworn-in President Samia Suluhu Hassan will change course or maintain her predecessor’s authoritarian track. Tundu Lissu, Tanzania’s main opposition leader, joins Alan Boswell this week to discuss the late President Magufuli’s legacy and policies in Tanzania.Tundu says President Magufuli’s death is an opportunity to reverse trends and ensure accountability in the country. He expects Samia Suluhu Hassan, Tanzania’s first woman president, to reverse the government’s response to Covid-19, as well as a variety of other policies pursued by Magufuli over the past five years. Tundu tells Alan his biggest fear is the influence of the security forces, which amassed tremendous power under Magufuli, and hopes for a general improvement in the political atmosphere to secure democracy in Tanzania. He also answers Alan’s question on whether he plans to run again for president in the next elections. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Gulf dispute over Qatar’s foreign policy has spilt over into the Horn of Africa. In trying to shape the regional landscape in their respective favours, Gulf states have intensified proxy conflicts in the Horn of Africa and Libya and made them harder to resolve. The January 2021 al-Ula declaration ends the blockade of Qatar and promises an end to the rift between them, at least formally, but will it lead to a de-escalation of their rivalries abroad?Elham Fakhro, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for the Gulf States, joins Alan Boswell to discuss how Gulf states’ reconciliation might impact their foreign policy choices in the Horn of Africa, in particular. She unpacks the vested interests they have in the region and how they can engage constructively in countries like Sudan and Somalia. She tells Alan that additional dialogue among Gulf states to further resolve their disputes over foreign policy is still needed and says the upcoming elections in Somalia may be a test of what’s to come. For more information:The Horn S1 E1: Red Sea Rising Read our commentary Resolving the Gulf Crisis outside the Gulf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Armed conflict has been raging in Ethiopia's northernmost Tigray region since November and fears are growing that it is on the brink of famine. Sporadic reports trickling out of the chronically food-insecure region paint an alarming picture: hundreds of thousands displaced, essential infrastructure systematically destroyed, widespread atrocities committed and an untold number of civilian deaths. Shrouded by a virtual information blackout, Alex de Waal says the scope of what is yet to emerge is cause for even more concern. The executive director of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University and author of Mass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine, the renowned Horn of Africa scholar is back with Alan to distill what is known of how the war is unfolding. Having drawn in multiple belligerents, the situation is dire but also complex. Alex underlines that the window of time to avert a full-blown humanitarian disaster is slipping. He discusses what witnesses have told him about the catastrophe, how political will at the highest level can be mobilized to give humanitarian agencies access to stricken regions, what Eritrea’s endgame could be, and what may come of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) now that it has been forced into an insurgency from the mountains.For more information, see our latest briefing: Finding a Path to Peace in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Last month’s elections in Uganda saw President Yoweri Museveni clinch another six years to his rule that began in 1986, a win marred by controversy and violence. The widespread crackdown on the opposition, civil society, and protests prior to the vote was the clearest sign yet that the incumbent regime’s days in power may be numbered. Joining Alan Boswell to take a closer look at what happened and what’s to come in Uganda is Daniel Kalinaki, Africa editor at Nation Media Group and managing editor of The East African. He explains to Alan that a record-low voter turnout and opposition leader Bobi Wine’s popular appeal both indicate that the country’s citizens, particularly the urban youth, are growing disillusioned with the status quo.Together they unpack the big questions this reality raises, including the complicit role of foreign interests in Uganda’s democratic backsliding, the inevitable prospect of succession, and what future political turmoil would mean for the restive region in which Uganda has long been an unusual anchor of relative stability. For more information, read our recent Q&A: Uganda’s Museveni Clings to Power – But Trouble Lies Ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With President Farmajo’s mandate due to end in just two weeks and little consensus on the way forward, a delay in Somalia’s high-stakes elections appears inevitable.Back with Alan to explain why a mid-September agreement on electoral changes has unraveled is Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Somalia. Together they chart the various scenarios the country could be headed toward, taking into account the major issues fuelling tensions between Farmajo, regional states, and political opposition. To steer clear of contestation and resulting unrest further down the line, Omar underlines the need for renewed agreement between the parties on a realistic electoral timeline. He tells Alan that failure to establish a framework for political order in Somalia after 8 February could heighten clan-based grievances, the risks of Al-Shabaab violence, and the new involvement of regional actors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Director Murithi Mutiga joins Alan Boswell to debate which regional conflicts and crises are most prominent on their radars for 2021.From the myriad political and security crises in Ethiopia ahead of elections to the enduring economic woes troubling Sudan’s transition, this year promises to be pivotal.Murithi tells Alan that much hinges on political elites’ capacity for dialogue, compromise, and reform. Recent events have demonstrated how easily unrest can reverberate across borders, so whether our gaze is on who emerges successful out of Somalia’s polls or what Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki is planning, it is how these dynamics overlap that will prove most telling. For more information, explore our work on the Horn of Africa region: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

During our brief season break, we're re-running an earlier episode from Season 2 that new subscribers may have missed. We will be back in January with a brand new line-up!Alan talks to Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director Comfort Ero about how the politics of conflict and peacemaking have changed — and not changed — across the African continent during the decade that she has led the organization’s work on Africa.They discuss power struggles in the Horn of Africa as America’s primacy wanes, the African Union’s more assertive role in peace and security, and how African leaders should manage their relationships with China to strengthen conflict resolution on the continent, not repressive authoritarian regimes. They also explore the benefits and risks of talking about African solutions to African problems, and the need to take into account the crucial national interests that can drive a state to try to shape the future of a neighboring country. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The U.S. was South Sudan’s most important ally on its path to independence in 2011 and a major player during talks that led to a peace deal in 2015. The agreement collapsed soon after, plunging the country into a wider civil war and a humanitarian crisis that has deepened since. Joining Alan to look back on America’s role in South Sudan and the Obama administration’s struggles to bring peace to the young country is Jon Temin, Africa director at Freedom House and a former State Department official from 2014 to 2017. He reflects on what the U.S. got wrong in its approach to brokering peace once South Sudan achieved statehood, what factors influenced its policy at critical junctures along the way and why the country’s fate ultimately lies in the hands of the South Sudanese people and regional actors.As the incoming Biden administration configures its policy priorities in Africa, they also discuss how these takeaways will likely inform future peacemaking efforts on the continent. For more information, read Jon Temin’s report for the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum and his piece in Foreign Affairs: What the United States Got Wrong in South Sudan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With the conflict in Tigray declared over by the federal government, Ethiopia’s complex transition is at a daunting crossroads. Steering the country into calmer waters ahead of the upcoming elections will require difficult political navigation by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.Regional autonomy demands, border disputes, and recurring bouts of inter-ethnic violence lay bare the many fault lines that remain. What will it take to successfully bridge the competing agendas of ethnonationalism and pan-Ethiopianism to find a workable middle ground on which to advance Ethiopia’s democratic transition?Constitutional specialist and political analyst Adem Kassie Abebe, a Program Officer at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), joins Alan to give his personal take on the likelihood of a Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) insurgency, the imperative of inclusive national dialogue in the near future and the different directions the country could be headed in given these uncertainties. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The last four years of relative U.S. absence in Africa contrast starkly with the country’s historically oversized role in shaping peace and security on the continent. Has this shift set the tone for years to come or will President-elect Biden seek to re-engage as an active partner?Crisis Group’s Chief of Staff Brittany Brown, having worked on African affairs under Presidents Bush, Obama, and Trump, joins Alan for a look at what Biden’s foreign policy priorities should be. Together they draw parallels between previous U.S. administrations to envisage whether the incoming Biden team will mark a departure from past approaches to China, human rights, counter-terrorism, and multilateralism in Africa – and the Horn of Africa region in particular. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A war that many feared was possible but hoped would never happen appears to be underway between Ethiopia’s federal forces and those commanded by the northern Tigray region. William Davison, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, walks Alan through the long-simmering tensions that set both sides on the course to armed conflict. Joining from Addis Ababa, he gives his assessment of how the conflict is playing out, stressing the urgent need for concerted diplomatic intervention to bring a potentially protracted conflict situation to a halt. Alan is also joined by Crisis Group’s Deputy Africa Program Director Dino Mahtani for an overview of how a full-blown civil war could not only wreak devastation in Ethiopia but also have grave consequences for peace and security in its neighborhood and Africa at large. For more information, see:Ethiopia’s Clash with Tigray: Getting to a Ceasefire and National DialogueSteering Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis Away from ConflictThe Horn S1 Episode 9: Ethiopia’s Fragile Transition Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Almost eighteen months after a popular revolution ousted President Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s transition remains on shaky ground. While the Juba peace agreement signed in August and President Trump’s recent announcement that Sudan will be removed from the U.S. State Sponsors of Terrorism (SST) list are welcome developments, the economic crisis and societal frustrations remain unchanged in the absence of substantial support from the international community. On his return from Khartoum, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Sudan, Jonas Horner, joins Alan to explain how this lack of buy-in endangers these initial signs of progress, why the way political alignments are currently shifting in the capital is cause for concern, what post-Bashir Sudan looks like on the ground and where it looks to be headed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The onslaught of COVID-19 combined with a host of upcoming elections are putting Africa’s peacebuilding institutions and democratic resilience to the test. Managing the overlapping challenges in many countries, several of them undergoing critical transitions, will require a balance between forming consensus internally and collaborating with external partners. Joining Alan this week to discuss peace and security on the continent is Hanna Tetteh, UN Under Secretary General and Special Representative to the Secretary General to the African Union. Drawing on her own experience and the cases of Sudan and South Sudan in particular, she shares her thoughts on the importance of finding solutions on common issues within multilateral frameworks, strengthening the partnership between the AU and UN and building truly inclusive peace processes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

President Isaias Afwerki has become virtually synonymous with the state of Eritrea, having single-handedly molded the country in his image since its inception in 1991. Alan is joined this week by Martin Plaut – author, journalist and now Senior Fellow at the University of London – who has covered Eritrea’s trajectory for almost 40 years. Together they explore how Isaias has maintained his unyielding grip on power while pursuing his geopolitical ambitions in the region and further afield. Martin describes a country pervaded with regime paranoia, extreme domestic repression, and isolationism that has somehow also managed to leverage itself into strategic partnerships with actors ranging from the UAE and Saudi Arabia to insurgent groups.This in-depth conversation offers insights into the inner workings of the Horn of Africa’s most off-the-radar country, the shape-shifting quality of Isaias’ shrewd foreign policy as well as the uncertain future of a post-Isaias Eritrea. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the third episode of Crisis Group's new podcast Hold Your Fire!, our Ethiopia Senior Analyst Will Davison joins host Rob Malley, our President, and co-host Naz Modirzadeh, a Crisis Group Trustee and Harvard professor of international law and conflict. Together they discuss the enormous challenges facing Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed amid rising ethnic tensions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sudan’s 31 August peace deal between the government and an alliance of rebel groups from Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile was welcomed with enthusiasm by the international community. But in the Jebel Marra mountains of Darfur, controlled by a faction of the Sudanese Liberation Movement (SLM), a rebel group that refused to sign the agreement, it was met with raised eyebrows.In early 2020, Vice News correspondent Julia Steers became the first foreign journalist to set foot in the Jebel Marra in five years. She witnessed first-hand why mistrust toward the government flies high in this remote area traumatised by seventeen years of war, even after former President Omar al-Bashir’s ousting in 2019.Steers explains how the rebels want justice for the crimes committed in Darfur and a significant improvement of the situation on the ground, where gunshots ring out daily and humanitarian services are absent. High on their list of concerns is also the fact that the process that led to the August agreement involves a general they consider as one of the masterminds of the genocide committed against them.Elsewhere in Darfur, Steers notes, challenges standing in the way of peace also abound. One obstacle is a surge in what the United Nations calls “tribal clashes”, where civilians displaced by the conflict are attacked in and outside the camps they live in.Explore our Sudan page to learn more about Crisis Group’s analysis on the country: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/sudanTo watch Vice News’ feature “Inside the Forgotten War in Darfur, Where the Killing Never Stopped”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NlgaXrMTc4 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

To mark the first episode of season two of The Horn, Alan talks with Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director Comfort Ero about how the politics of conflict and peacemaking have changed — and not changed — across the African continent during the decade that she has led the organisation’s work on Africa.She highlights that although headlines may be dominated by topics such as “jihadist threat” and “violent extremism”, the key causes of conflict remain the same, namely corruption, instrumentalisation of ethnicity, and marginalisation of certain communities. They discuss power struggles in the Horn of Africa as America’s primacy wanes, the African Union’s more assertive role in peace and security, and how African leaders should manage their relationships with China to strengthen conflict resolution on the continent, not repressive authoritarian regimes. They also explore the benefits and risks of talking about African solutions to African problems, and the need to take into account the crucial national interests that can drive a state to try to shape the future of a neighboring country. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In our second re-run of the Summer, Alan is joined by Rashid Abdi to discuss the legal battle Kenya and Somalia are fighting over their shared maritime border.Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi "Farmajo" has taken a more assertive stance to demonstrate the country’s strength and appeal to his support base. Kenya views itself as a powerful country in a turbulent region and doesn’t wish to be seen caving into pressure.Rashid and Alan seek insights about why the dispute flared up, Ethiopia’s changing role under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and how mediation efforts have achieved some positive, modest success in de-escalating tensions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

During our season break, we will be re-running two early podcasts from our first season that new subscribers might have missed. We will be back in September with some brand new episodes. Digital technologies are having a dramatic impact on politics. But while their influence in Western political spaces has been heavily scrutinized, little attention has been paid in Africa. Best-selling Kenyan author Nanjala Nyabola joins Alan Boswell on The Horn this week. They discuss everything from digital colonialism and the exploitation of technology by state powers to the power of social media, for better or for worse. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Somalia's political crisis has reached a worrying stage. Since his election in 2017, President Farmajo has pushed to strengthen the federal government's control, fuelling infighting between the government and member states. The decision to postpone upcoming elections has inflamed these already deteriorating relations. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab continues to inflict violence and will likely benefit from this political disarray, and external actors compete for influence, using the country as a playground for their own interests.Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Somalia Omar Mahmood joins Alan for the final episode of this season to discuss these worrying trends and the need for a consensus agreement over the electoral process. They also examine the skirmishes in Jubaland's Gedo region and their impact on wider regional dynamics.Thank you for joining us for this first season of the Horn. We would love to hear from you so if you have a few minutes to spare, please fill out this short survey: https://bit.ly/HornSurveyWe will be back in September. Until then, stay safe! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As rains swell the Blue Nile, Ethiopia has made clear its intent to soon start filling the massive dam it is building. However, it has yet to reach an agreement with its two downstream neighbours, Sudan, and Egypt.Trilateral talks resumed in early June, and while most elements have been agreed upon, two key issues remain unresolved: drought mitigation and dispute resolution. The gap to reach an agreement is closing fast.William Davison, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, returns to The Horn once more to unpack the complex dynamics at play. He and Alan discuss negotiations, technical issues, and the parties' various concerns. He stresses that all three need to compromise if they hope to reach a deal, lest tensions rise further.For more information, read our statement: Nile Dam Talks: A Short Window to Embrace Compromise Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The "age-old story of the rise and fall of great powers", already in motion, has been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic.So says Abdul Mohammed, chief of staff and senior political advisor for the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel. Amid waning U.S. influence, the steady rise of China, and a new era of competition between the two, he asks, where does Africa fit in?The continent has undergone a dynamic transformation over the past twenty years. In the absence of robust, long-term U.S. engagement, China has emerged as the continent's most important economic partner. Meanwhile, the U.S. is now primarily focused on sidelining China in Africa rather than providing the transformative engagement needed.With the continent now caught between these two opposing geopolitical forces, just like the rest of the world, Abdul argues that Africans cannot afford to be passive. They will need to "play a weak hand well" by positioning themselves as relevant actors, both in managing the current pandemic and in contributing to the shaping of a future global order. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Africa’s priority in fighting COVID-19 is to find the right “balance between saving lives and saving livelihoods”, based on the experience of what happened in Europe, the United States, and China, says Dr. John Nkengasong, Director of Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), the African Union body coordinating the response to the pandemic on the continent.The wave of COVID-19 infections that many predicted would cruelly expose Africa’s weak health systems has not materialized on the continent thanks to early lockdown measures, lessons learnt from the Ebola and HIV crises, and strong leadership and coordination on a continental level.But Africa is not out of the woods yet, and as European countries start easing lockdowns, Africa needs to redouble its efforts if it wants to avoid a massive spread of the disease. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.