The Economy, Stupid

Interest rates are on the rise not just here in Australia but in other parts of the globe as central banks and governments grapple with rising inflation. But what can central banks actually achieve? Former deputy governor of the Bank of England and now chair of NatWest Group, Sir Howard Davies discusses. And just as interest rates keep rising so do water levels. The Nepean-Hawkesbury valley is once again flooded. Dr Brian Cook from the University of Melbourne explains how among other factors, massive changes to land use and economic forces have disrupted the peak flows of our river systems. So what to do?

In 1992, the Keating Government passed the Superannuation Guarantee Act insuring at the time retirement savings to seventy two percent of workers. Thirty years on, as the super guarantee is about to increase, is it still the best way to ensure sufficient retirement income for all? Brendan Coates from the Grattan Institute discusses the pros and the cons. And how to twin efficiency and equity. Professor of Law Rosalind Dixon and Professor of Economics Richard Holden have proposed in their book reforms on how to make economies fairer through liberalism democracy. And you'll be surprised to know that Australia has many of the frameworks required.

Energy capacity mechanisms, what are they and what are the concerns about them and why is the Australia's Institute Polly Hemming slightly optimistic about Australia's future climate and energy policies? Jobs, jobs, jobs and 270,00 missing ones. Economist Isaac Gross with the ALP's Andrew Leigh have analysed the RBA's use of interest rates over the last twenty years. This monetary tool hasn't always worked as it should. And we all know big brother is watching what we're doing online. But how does this affect the insurance products, policies and costs that are being offered to us? Zofia Bednarz from the University of Sydney's Law School discusses why it needs to be considered and better regulated.

Interest rates are rising and not just in Australia. So how do people feel about the economy and their own financial situation? Bill Evans, Chief Economist at Westpac, talks about consumer sentiment. The tragedy of gun violence in the US is impossible to measure, but what about the economic cost? Ted Miller from the Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation has been crunching the data with a price tag of $557 billion based on 2019 figures. And what factors are contributing to the skyrocketing prices of our daily greens? Supply chain expert, Flavio Macau from the Edith Cowan University's School of Business and Law helps us digest why certain vegetables have become top shelf expensive.

The Grattan Institute's director of energy, Tony Wood, provides his analysis of this week's energy minister's meeting and why an integrated energy and climate change policy is critical.

Twelve of Australia's prominent economists penned an open letter to the new Treasurer Jim Chalmers about what they want to see in the promised review of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Renee Fry-McKibbin, Professor of Economics at the ANU's Crawford School of Public policy and interim director explains why this review is so important to get right.

We have a new government so where does it stand on the big issues like climate and industrial relations? Anna Skarbek, CEO of Climateworks Centre discusses the targets and policies but also how much more needs to be done and Andrew Stewart, Professor of Law at the University of Adelaide talks through the challenges the government has with rejuvenating enterprise bargaining mechanisms for pay rises as well as other policy commitments. And have we reached the limits of global trade liberalisation? The Financial Times, global business columnist, Rana Foroohar explores what might come next and whether we need to fix the WTO.

It has been a very long election campaign so is it possible there are areas that haven't been discussed by the major political parties? Richard Holden, Professor of Economics at the University of New South Wales Business School and Danielle Wood, economist and CEO of the Grattan Institute reflect on the policies and economics that have been forgotten.

How do you know when we're in a global recession? Well, there's no precise rule but the economies of China, US and Europe are all facing challenges and uncertainties making forecasting difficult. And as Harvard Professor of Economics Kenneth Rogoff, says, we'll know when we are in one. And this doesn't bode well for Australia where long term forecasts are showing budget deficits. With election spending promises, neither side of politics is mentioning major reform that most economists know is a major requirement. The ABC's financial journalist and editor in chief of the Eureka Report Alan Kohler discusses. And manufacturing. We've all seen the images of Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese in high viz, but what are they planning and is it enough? Jesse Adams Stein, senior lecturer and ARC DECRA fellow at the UTS School of Design talks through the possibilities.

In the wake of this weeks RBA increase in interest rates, how difficult is it to forecast in uncertain times? Former economist at the RBA and lecturer at Monash University, Isaac Gross discusses indicators and predictions. How can it be that the number of people receiving unemployment benefits is higher than the number of unemployed? Why are some people receiving benefits exempt from looking for work? Professor Peter Whiteford from the Crawford School of Public Policy at the ANU talks through these conundrums. And what's the correlation between military spend and economic growth? It's complicated as Simon Rabinovitch, The Economist's US economics editor explains.

Inflation, interest rates and the RBA. Warren Hogan economic advisor to Judo Bank provides his prediction of when rates will go up and by how much as well as what are the key questions for a forthcoming review of the RBA. As the Solomon Islands and China deal continues to dominate the election campaign what are the differences in each party's approach to foreign aid and is it economically viable? Stephen Howes, professor of economics at the Crawford School of Public Policy at the ANU discusses. Over ninety billion dollars in revenue could be collected from offshore gas projects if changes to the petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT) are made according to a recent Greens policy. So what is the PRRT, why hasn't it worked and why hasn't the Coalition or the ALP in the past done anything about it? Diane Kraal, senior lecturer at the Monash University's Business School explains.

The funding of the National Disability Insurance Scheme has always been a contentious issue between the ALP and the Coalition. Economist Dr Angela Jackson from Impact Economics and Policy outlines why the costs are so high and how to make it more sustainable. What can economic modelling tell us about who will win the Federal Election? Economist Hamish Greenop-Roberts from the University of Queensland, has studied past elections to determine which economic figures are the best indicators for a win. And what does it mean for a country to default? Eliza Wu, Sydney University's associate professor of finance discusses the consequences of defaulting and what will happen with Russia, and PhD candidate Nimna Prematilaka from the University of Melbourne shares her insights on the economic crisis facing Sri Lanka.

There's been a lot of noise around the unemployment figure of 4 percent, but that's not the only figure we should be concerned about with youth unemployment currently at 9.3 percent. How this figure can be improved is explained by Eliza Littleton, research economist at The Australian Institute and co-author of the report Youth unemployment and the pandemic . In the 2019 federal election, political parties collectively spent $433 million. We won't know the figure for this election until next February and even then, we won't know where some of this money came from. Kate Griffiths,deputy director of the Grattan Institute's budgets and government program discusses why greater transparency is needed. And as the destruction of Ukraine continues from Russian forces, estimates of the cost of reconstruction has already began. Christian Odendahl, European economics editor at The Economist explains where the money will come from and the reforms required to rebuild Ukraine.

As we all await for the Prime Minister to announce the date for the 2022 Federal Election, the Australian Electoral Commission began preparing for it the day after the last election in 2019. What is involved and what is the cost of running an election across the nation? The AEC's spokesperson, Evan Ekin-Smyth explains. And the French head to the polls this weekend in the first round of Presidential elections. In the last few weeks, polling shows a close contest with purchasing power as a number one issue, but there are other factors at play with a result that not only affects France but the EU as well. Lionel Page, Professor of Economics at the University of Queensland, discusses. And venture capital: Sebastian Mallaby, the Paul A Volcker senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, charts the history and the impact of this once risky venture.

The Money continues with the Federal Budget analyses but with a difference. Four younger economists, including three recipients of the Economic Society of Australia's Young Economist award, discuss how the budget stacks up when applying their specialist lens.

If you could nominate what you wanted from next week's federal budget, what would it be? Join us on The Money as four people representing different parts of Australian life - the community, small business, employers and those under housing stress - answer this question. Cassandra Goldie, CEO of Australian Council of Social Services; Alexi Boyd, CEO of the Council of Small Business Organisations Australia; Innes Willox, Chief Executive at Australian Industry Group and Kate Colvin spokesperson for the Everybody's Home Campaign.

Inflation is on the rise, driven by supply shocks. Does the Reserve Bank of Australia need to do something about it? Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting at BIS Oxford Economics explains.

Insurance premiums are increasing with the frequency of climate induced natural disasters. The government is planning a reinsurance pool of $10 billion in the hope of making premiums cheaper. But this may not work as Antonia Settle from the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economics and Social Research explains.

This week as severe flooding causes havoc in south east Queensland and parts of NSW, two important, relevant reports were released. One by the Insurance Council of Australia outlining what the Federal and State Governments need to invest to protect against the cost of increasing climate disasters and one by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with a very grim outlook for Australia if emissions aren't cut dramatically. Nicki Hutley, independent economist and Economist with the Climate Council untangles the numbers and considers what we're facing with these current floods.

Does extending parental leave entitlements present a greater cost to the Australian economy or a benefit? The answer from economists and gender equality groups seem to agree, it is beneficial for all. Both socially and economically. These benefits extend to unpaid work at home. This does make sense when you listen to economist Jessica Mizrahi, Director at Accenture Australia and Vice President of the Economic Society of NSW and Mary Wooldridge, Director of the Workplace Gender Equality Agency. We also hear from Hugh Sinclair, a senior finance manager with property group Stockland, who took his full parental leave entitlement when his second child was born. He compares the experience and the benefits from when he took two weeks leave and twenty weeks leave.

It has been a bumpy few years with the pandemic and businesses have had to make huge adjustments. So how are they feeling about the future? Jeremy Thorpe, chief economist of PwC Australia shares the results of their annual survey of CEOs and explains why cybersecurity is the number one risk, as well as why businesses are focussing on the US and New Zealand.

Economist Jim Stanford argues supply and demand will not increase wages. What is needed is the political will and policies to lift wages, structures and institutions and an expanding public sector.

How globalisation has altered the effectiveness of economic sanctions.

What needs to be done to improve the care in aged care.

Predictions and expectations abound from the Reserve Bank of Australia chief's speech this week.

What can the satirical film about a comet hurtling to earth teach us about economics?

The inequality of COVID-19 vaccinations is having a devasting affect on many developing countries. It is also costing the global economy in its trillions.

What do the recent economic indicators tell us about the state of our economy?

Meet an award winning, Aboriginal-owned construction and maintenance services business that’s part of the booming $4.8 billion Indigenous business sector. How the Nobel economics prize winners better estimated the effects of immigration and the minimum wage. Plus, the retail sector takes trust extremely seriously and is thinking about it in increasingly sophisticated ways.Guests: Gerard Matera, Director, building services company MarawarProfessor Michelle Evans, University of Melbourne Indigenous Business Research GroupProfessor Richard Holden, Future Fellow, UNSW Business SchoolProfessor Michael Roseman, Director, Centre for Future Enterprise, QUT

With tax income from lucrative trade routes and finance from countries such as China or Pakistan, how insulated are the Taliban from the western threat of sanctions and the freeze of international funds? Plus, opportunities for Australia's critical materials sector.Guests:David Mansfield, independent consultant, author of A State Built on Sand: How opium undermined Afghanistan @mansfieldintincJeffrey Wilson, Research Director, Perth USAsia Centre

Cuckoo smurfing — what it is, how to spot it, how to make sure it doesn't happen to you. An Australian philanthropic foundation marks 135 years of helping people in need. What has changed in that time? Plus, Australian researchers find that business leaders are more optimistic about their company's profit outlook when the sun is shiningGuests:Marcus Erikson, Director of Intelligence, AUSTRACStacey Thomas CEO, The Wyatt TrustAmanuel Elias, Alfred Deakin Institute, Deakin University

A blast from the past offers a possible answer to growing wealth inequality. Three economists put the case for the resurrection of inheritance taxes. Plus, how social change happens.GuestsSaul Eslake, Independent economistIan Raspin, Managing Director, BNR PartnersDanielle Wood, Chief Executive, Grattan InstituteDamon Centola, author of Change: How to make big things happen

The pandemic and subsequent economic crisis have shown how government is crucial for getting things done – like rolling out a vaccine or throwing the economy a lifeline. But what if the state aspired to do a lot more? Economist Mariana Mazzucato thinks that states need to rediscover grand ambition and in-house expertise to solve climate change and inequality. Plus, a look at the ups and downs of China's economy in 2021.Guests: Professor Mariana Mazzucato, Director, Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, University College London. Author of Mission Economy: A Moonshot Guide to Changing Capitalism (First broadcast 18/03/2021)Professor Jane Golley, Director, Australian Centre on China in the World, ANU

Ransomware attacks across Australia have become a major problem for business, causing massive disruptions and costing millions to remediate. Recent attacks against Victoria's public health system, the local facilities of meat supplier JBS foods, and Nine Entertainment are part of an underreported problem. Australia is considered a soft target for attacks – what can be done and what should we look out for?Guest: Abigail Bradshaw, Head Australian Cyber Security Centre Australian Signals Directorate

New research has proven that the performance of Indigenous students in literacy tests can be significantly lifted by changing the context of questions so that students can see their own lives and culture in test questions. Year 6 and year 8 students in the Dubbo region took part in the study run by the University of New South Wales Economics of Education Knowledge Hub – as part an initiative to reduce inequality in Australian education.Guests:Professor Richard Holden, Director, Economics of Education Knowledge Hub, UNSW Business SchoolLily Spackman, Project Officer, NSW Aboriginal Consultative group

A quicker-than-expected economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession has added billions to the government’s bottom line, but that’s unlikely to be felt by workers anytime soon, with the cost of living slated to outstrip wage growth in the coming months. On the up side, official ABS data shows the unemployment rate dived from 5.2 in October to 4.6 per cent in November, after lockdowns had ended in New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT.Guest: Danielle Wood, CEO, Grattan Institute

Leading research on how adapting exam questions to make them culturally relevant to regional and Aboriginal students could close the Indigenous reading gap by 50 per cent and reduce the urban-rural gap by a third. better education outcomes. Ransomware attacks on the rise and Christmas scams to watch out for. Plus, analysis of the mid-year budget update and latest job figures.

Geoff Harcourt was one of Australia's best-known academic economists. He inspired and mentored many students and made significant contributions to public policy and economic thought. Roy Green reflects on the life of his friend and mentor, Geoff Harcourt.Guest: Emeritus Professor Roy Green, former Dean of UTS Business School

Booming housing wealth and unspent superannuation are increasing the size of Australians' inheritances, according to the first in depth study of wealth transfers by the Productivity Commission. Despite helping the wealthy get richer, inheritances and gifts are nevertheless shrinking relative inequality by giving a bigger boost to poorer households. The value of inheritances is expected to grow - what are the implications?Guests: Lisa Gropp, Commissioner, Productivity CommissionRobert Breunig, Director, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, ANU

Australians have given away more than $1.5 trillion in the past 20 years and could be on track to hand over another $6 trillion in the coming three decades - what are the implications for inequality? Plus, Roy Green remembers economic scholar Geoff Harcourt.

A Sydney based software company that builds AI tools for the medical industry has raised $129 million in its latest funding round. Dr Aengus Tran and his brother, Dimitry Tran, co-founded the business after immigrating to Australia from Vietnam for high school. Harrison.ai's success is part of a record-breaking year for venture capital investment.Guests:Dr Aengus Tran, Chief Executive, Harrison.aiAmanda Price, Head of KPMG High Growth Ventures

Australia has a shortage of social housing – where rents are usually capped at 25 per cent of tenants' incomes. The Grattan Institute is suggesting the federal government should establish a "social housing future fund" to generate the income needed to construct thousands of homes.Guests: Brendan Coates, Director of Economic Policy, The Grattan Institute

The Committee for the Economic Development says Australia will entrench the next generation of poverty and disadvantage unless it improves information sharing between support services and governments. How can sharing data help identify those most at risk, and enable early intervention to break the cycle of disadvantage? Guest: Cassandra Winzar, CEDA Senior Economist and co-author of Disrupting Disadvantage

A new rental affordability index exposes the crippling price of rental properties across Australia for lower-income households. Regionals rents continue to soar as more people move from cities, pushing locals into rental stress.Guests: Ellen Witte, SGS Economics and Planning, Principal & Partner, lead author of the Rental Affordability Index

Finding a a lower priced electricity deal might be about to get easier. Plus, a new rental affordability index further details the crippling price of rental properties across Australia for lower-income households