The Economy, Stupid

Australia’s birth rate is collapsing, heading for a record low next year, well below the level needed for the population to replace itself. Fewer couples, fewer kids, and a world where ageing societies reshape everything from innovation to taxes. Why is this happening everywhere at once, and what does it mean for your future?Guests: Viva Hammer, ANU population researcher and tax expertMyriam Robin, AFR senior writer

What happens when the economy stops playing by the rules?We’re taught that inflation and unemployment move like a seesaw, one goes up, the other goes down. But sometimes the seesaw snaps. Prices climb and people lose jobs at the same time. It happened dramatically in the 1970s, and with oil prices surging again and global tensions rising people are whispering the word Stagnation once more. Guests: Professor Bob Gregory, one of Australia’s most influential economists, who watched the original outbreak of stagflation unfold and later sat on the Reserve Bank board during another era of economic upheaval.Gareth Hutchens, ABC business and economics reporter who has spent years examining how these big economic shocks ripple through everyday life.

The Reserve Bank says it’ll do whatever it takes to crush inflation, even if it means Australia falls into recession. But for millions of Australians, the pain is already here with petrol prices soaring and mortgage repayments climbing. So did the RBA really have no choice but to lift rates again? Or is this a risk the Bank didn’t need to take?Guests: Gianni La Cava, Former Senior Research Manager at the Reserve Bank of Australia; now Senior Economist at the e61 Institute.Cherelle Murphy, Oceania Chief Economist, EY

From food security to fuelling our air force, the global oil crisis threatens far more than the cost of driving a car. So what happens next?

GDP is meant to measure economic progress, yet even war can make it rise. So what exactly is it measuring?

What happens when the nation’s wealthiest state gets extra funding on top of a needs‑based system? Since 2019, Western Australia has received a special billion‑dollar boost that no other state gets, and now the deal is under review. WA wants it to stay. The rest of the country is paying for it. So is the arrangement justified, or overdue for a rethink?Guests:Saul Eslake, Economic consultant and former chief economist for ANZ and Bank of America Merrill Lynch in AustraliaMatt McKenzie, Economics writer for The West Australian

Australia does something a bit weird: if you make money selling a house or shares, you get taxed at half the rate you’d pay on your actual job. Nice if you’re the one pocketing the profit… not so great if you’re trying to buy your first place and keep getting outbid by investors.People have argued about this discount for years; it’s political TNT. Bill Shorten tried to change it twice and got burned both times. Now Labor’s back in government, the issue’s landed in a Senate inquiry, and it’s shaping up to be the first real showdown between Treasurer Jim Chalmers and newly appointed Opposition Leader Angus Taylor.Is this tax break helping the country or just helping those already ahead? And if we tweaked it… would anything actually get better?Guests: Brendan Coates – Program Director, Housing and Economic Security, Grattan Institute.Cathal Leslie – Generation Z economist who has worked at the Productivity Commission, the Australian Treasury, and the OECD in Paris, now working in the AI sector.

Spending is outpacing revenue, and the budget gap isn’t closing.At the same time, Australia is drifting off track on its emissions targets for 2030, 2035 and 2050.The Superpower Institute has a proposal: a revamped carbon pricing model it says could help fix both.Australians rejected carbon pricing more than a decade ago.The question now is whether the country is ready to reconsider? Guests: Ingrid Burford, Lead, Carbon Pricing and Policy, Superpower InstituteBen Potter, contributing Editor at The EnergySuperpower Institute: The Case for Pricing Pollution: Reducing emissions, strengthening the economy, and delivering a fair share for Australians

The Reserve Bank has lifted rates, and if you’ve got a mortgage, you’ll feel it fast. A typical borrower on a $600,000 loan is up around $90 a month for a single hike, and if more follow, the hit multiplies. Is inflation really back, or is the Bank overreacting? And what would more hikes do to jobs and house prices?Guests: Michael Pasoe, writes for Michael West MediaCherelle Murphy, the Oceania Chief Economist for the consultancy firm EY

The Reserve Bank looks set to lift interest rates after a year of cuts - adding around $90 a month to a typical $600,000 mortgage. If there are three hikes, that’s an extra $3,200 a year. What does it mean for you?

A year ago, we were told the housing market was about to cool, but it didn’t. What’s in store for us in the year to come? Guests: Amy Auster, director of Policy Institute AustraliaBen Phillips, principal Research Fellow at the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods

Australia’s mental health system is costly — and full of cracks. What would it take to fix it?

The Australian housing dream is no longer guaranteed. Is it too late to turn things around?

Some economists say Australia could become a clean-energy superpower — massively rich, world-leading. But how would we get there?

How do companies keep us paying more, and can we fight back?

Most Australians die with more money than they retired with. Are we squirrelling away too much into super — and if so, who benefits?

Economic bubbles inevitably burst, but often leave behind a better world. Can we hope the same for AI?

Does GDP still capture the truth about Australian life?

From sunscreen recalls and childcare failures to tech overreach, the corporate social contract is in crisis

After a historic shock, Australia’s jobs market rebounded. But work has changed

Floods, fires and spiralling premiums are pushing millions of Australians out of insurance. Can the system itself survive?

The Reserve Bank has paused rate cuts amid rising uncertainty, while investors pour trillions into AI — with consequences that could reshape jobs, markets and society

Inflation’s jumped to 3.2% — but for many of us, it feels even higher

Australia is an economic success story. But can the institutions that built it survive an uncertain world?

Hidden debts, coercive control — and why the tax system can punish people most in need of help.

The rich keep getting richer while millions are falling behind. What future awaits us all?

Most Australians die with more money than they retired with. Are we squirrelling away too much into super — and if so, who benefits?

Every Australian generation has expected to be more prosperous, healthier and safer than the last. But the latest national wellbeing data tells a more complicated story.

Is the government's "responsible" approach sensible politics, or a missed economic opportunity?

From postage costs to small business exports, new US trade barriers are disrupting daily life. How bad will it get?

The latest economic figures show Australia's GDP climbing, but does that translate into more money in your pocket or a better life?

After the Royal Commission exposed widespread misconduct, how did the banks pull off their reputation revival - and can we really trust them?

For decades, life in Australia seemed to move in one direction - forward. But now the promise of progress feels less certain.

Treasury has warned that Australia’s tax base is shrinking - and without reform, wage earners will carry more of the burden. So, who should pay more tax: workers, wealthy retirees, or big business?

This week on The Economy, Stupid: the biggest superannuation scandal in Australian history — and who should have stopped it.

Australians are still in work, and inflation is coming down, yet economic uncertainty is far higher now that it was during the peak of COVID.So why are so many of us feeling uneasy?

If you're not carrying any hard cash on you right now, you're not alone - and that might be a problem.This week we look at Australia’s crumbling cash system: why it’s costing millions to keep it alive, who’s footing the bill, and how close we really are to the end of cash.

In 2017, Donald Trump reportedly scrawled “trade is bad” in the margins of a speech — a blunt rejection of economic orthodoxy that has transformed global politics. Economists tend to see international trade as good for everyone - a rising tide that lifts all boats. So why do so many voters, in the U.S. and elsewhere, feel like they’re being left behind?

This week the Reserve Bank kept interest rates on hold, that was a shock for the industry, but the most surprising thing? For the first time, they told us the board didn’t agree. Six said hold, three said cut. Why does that matter? Because we know the room is divided and that changes everything. Guests:Nicki Hutley - Senior economist and chief economist at all manner of financial institutionsMichael Pascoe - Writes for Michael West Media. Get in touch: We read all of your emails, and appreciate each one. Please keep them coming [email protected] or use the #PeterMartinEconomy on Instagram to get our attention.

What if you could earn over $1 million and pay nothing in tax? Turns out some Australians already do. Is it time to rethink the rules?

If you could fix the tax system, how would you do it? The Treasurer is looking for ideas, and on Radio National's The Economy, Stupid, we have them. Guests:Miranda Stewart - Director of Tax Law at the University of Melbourne Law SchoolBen Phillips - Principal Research Fellow at the ANU Centre for Social Research and MethodsGet in touch: We read all of your emails, and appreciate each one. Please keep them coming [email protected] or use the #PeterMartinEconomy on Instagram to get our attention.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers thinks Ezra Klein's book, Abundance, is a ripper. Building things directly and sweeping away red tape could soon be part of a productivity measure. An investment arm of the United Arab Emirates wants to buy Australia's Santos. Should the Treasurer impose conditions on approving Australia's biggest-ever resource takeover? Plus, a 'GST Guarantee' for the West. What’s wrong with doling out the revenue from Australia's resources on the basis of need? Guests:Matt McKenzie - Resources writer for the West Australian Megan Flamer - Senior Industry Fellow at RMIT Univesrity Get in touch: We read all of your emails, and appreciate each one. Please keep them coming [email protected] or use the #PeterMartinEconomy on Instagram to get our attention.

From Hawke’s 1983 economic summit to Rudd’s 2020 vision, big gatherings have sometimes sparked big reforms. Now Anthony Albanese wants to try again - this time to tackle Australia’s stagnating productivity. Within months, the Australian government will have to present the United Nations climate convention with an updated target for 2035. How are we doing with the target we’ve got? Guests:Michael Janda - ABC News Business EditorBen Potter - Contributing Editor at The EnergyGet in touch: We read all of your emails, and appreciate each one. Please keep them coming [email protected] or use the #PeterMartinEconomy on Instagram to get our attention.