The Dividend Cafe

The market dropped for the third day in a row, again led substantially by the sell-off in big tech (the Nasdaq is down 10% since last Wednesday’s late day high). The Dow is down ~1,600 points since mid-week last week, about half of the drop in the Nasdaq in percentage terms. Futures were pointing up ~200 points last night, but today the market opened down 400 points and chopped around throughout the day, taking two turns down in the final two hours of trading. Expect a bit more markets and economic coverage in this week’s missives than normal because the Friday Dividend Cafe will be exclusively focused as the special election issue. We are entering a new phase of the COVID economic recovery that I believe will move slower than the first half has moved. A lot of the low-hanging fruit of job recovery and activity-resurgence has taken place, but normalized conditions are a ways off and will likely see a slowdown in pace of recovery from here. COVID Health Information • I am sure the Labor Day report of just 27,000 new cases yesterday was low around holiday reporting issues. The 7-day moving average is dropping ever so slowly. • The 7-day rolling average for daily mortalities is down 12% from the week prior and down 22% from a month ago. • The leaders of nine major pharma companies, all engaged in leading vaccine efforts, sent a public letter vowing to take no shortcuts en route to a COVID vaccine. • Incredible news (I will keep this updated as long as Dr. Bostom keeps maintaining the source report): 26,000 alleged COVID positive cases on college campuses now; zero hospitalizations Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will address all of this and more: • Market week in review – is this the tech correction we have been anticipating??? • A vast and thrilling ride through the world of zero% interest rates, and what this new monetary regime means for the economy, the future, and oh yeah, all investors! • A tale of two economies • Something to really worry about • The danger of stock splits • The Pro and Con case for the bank sector • Economic Report Card for the Week (special attention to today’s jobs report) • Politics & Money – update on the election betting odds, scenarios for election night, and general volatility expectations • Chart of the Week – a little history of Nasdaq corrections … A perfect way to launch your Labor Day weekend … Let’s jump in, to the Dividend Cafe! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

COVID Health Information • Confirmed cases in the U.S. are running about flat this week to last week, which leads some to say, “oh good, cases are not further increasing,” and it leads others to say, “see, the rate of decline has flat-lined.” It would seem to me that neither posture is the most astute given all we have learned, particularly in the context of applying COVID to our economic and market and societal realities. But as long as the focus is wrongly put on cases versus the other metrics we have learned are more systemically significant, that debate will likely continue. • If one were inclined to earnestly follow the case growth numbers, though, and I certainly provide them here (despite my insistence that they are of little use I still play along), it would be noteworthy that while case growth has flattened, testing is actually up 6%, with the positivity rate is down to the 5-handle we were waiting for. In other words, adjusted for testing, cases are continuing to decline. • If there is one “prediction” I can offer here (and if there is anything NO ONE should be doing around COVID based on the last four or five months, it is making predictions), it is that we will see cases on college campuses in the coming weeks – cases that will create little or no hospitalizations – result in the next round of headlines and hand-wringing (and everyone can decide for themselves if such will be justified or not). P.S. – 546 positives art University of Kansas – zero hospitalizations; Ohio State University 882 positives, zero hospitalizations. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The extraordinary drop in new cases has slowed down, as expected. New cases seem to have flat-lined even as hospitalizations and mortalities continue declining, pointing to the increasingly less symptomatic and lethal nature of COVID cases currently being tested. Color me confused by analysts and experts who are confused by the low mortality metrics coming out of European countries in their late summer increase of new cases. I would think everyone would have expected the low mortality rates Europe is seeing based on the experience of the U.S. this summer (better treatment, healthier infections, less severe virus, etc.). The CFA Institute published a provocative article last week from Laurence Siegel (Director of Research at the CFA Institute Research Foundation) and Stephen Sexauer (CIO at the San Diego Employees Retirement Pension) looking at the dangers of COVID that are not specific to COVID (Bastiat’s law of the unseen versus the seen). This chart in particular grabbed me. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will: • Review the week that was in markets • Really spend the time we need looking at what the Fed has done, will do, and will never, ever do • Provide five key investment implications to the monetary regime we now live in • Do a “Euro”pean history lesson for you, and look at what that means for investors now • Provide an explanation of how business investment works, what the hold-up has been, and why it matters • Politics and Money – a look at this week’s Republican convention • Chart of the Week Let’s jump in, to the Dividend Cafe! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market rose 160 points today, perhaps from a mix of reasons (Fed talk, hurricane control, and COVID testing news – see below). The S&P was up just a tad, and the Nasdaq was actually down on the day. I do feel like today’s missive is a meaty one, so I hope you will enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it. I confess, this “every other day” missive schedule has been much more manageable for yours truly! Okay, let’s go around the horn … COVID Health Information • Confirmed new cases are now down over 37% from the July peak of a month ago, and are down over 12% on daily average basis from last week. The case decline is rapid, and while I am of the opinion it must be hospitalizations and case severity that drives public policy, not merely the existence of cases, the actual decline in cases adds ammo to the arguments for greater freedom of movement and activity (an economic plus). • The only states not seeing rapid decline in hospitalizations are Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, and West Virginia – more or less the overall national trend and data reality where there is a real COVID presence is in overwhelmingly declining COVID hospitalizations. • And even apart from the dropping hospitalizations, and dropping cases, the hospitalizations-per-confirmed cases has dropped substantially from the spring levels, unambiguously supporting the notion that the recent infections affected a less vulnerable and more healthy group, and lending support to the idea many epidemiologists have proposed that the virus is losing potency. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market dropped 60 points today but the S&P and Nasdaq were both up. It was a pretty mixed day across sectors and market categories. I am going to write more about it in Friday’s Dividend Cafe but the news today that Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer spoke with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He yesterday, and that all commitments of the phase one trade accord were reaffirmed, is substantial (at least for now in containing potential tail risk). One of the advantages in this new schedule to my missives is that it gives me the chance to better broaden the scope (not ignoring the other categories besides COVID health data). Today we cover all the bases, and they are worth your read. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Up to date information regarding Covid and Markets with a focus on the impact of the pending elections and Federal Reserve guidance. With David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This week we look at … • The week that was in the market (and get ready for the final week of August ahead) • Really, truly unpack why dividend growth investing is so important, and why the dividend itself is such a small part of that, and yet such a big part of it • The deflationary nature of debt, and how all that works … A special feature! • Valuations in the stock market, here, and in third world countries • China. Enough said. • The state of the economy (as we do every week) • Politics and Money (as we also do every week, even when it hurts) • … and so much more With our thinking caps on, let’s jump in to the Dividend Cafe! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market was up ~50 points today with the S&P and Nasdaq up higher than the Dow on a percentage basis. Markets had been down last night in very late night futures ~200 points, allegedly on Fed comments regarding yield curve control (please). Then markets evened up, allegedly on reports that China trade talks were re-scheduled (please). Then markets dropped a bit after the weekly jobless claims came in worse than expected (maybe). And by the end of the trading day, markets had grinded out an up day, and big tech led the way. The weekly jobless claims number came in at 1.1 million, far higher than the 960k we got down to last week and the 925k expected this week. Continuing claims, though, declined by another 636,000 though, bringing that number below 15 million. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market was down about 65 points today, but the S&P and the Nasdaq were up, and in fact, the S&P closed at a new all-time high today. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

• Market Recap of the week that just was • A little reality check on interest rates • A report card for earnings season for Q2 • Anyone remember China? • Commercial real estate lending • Restaurants looking for some help – and possibly going to get it • Is our monetary system working? • Economic report card for the week (jobs, retail sales, consumer credit, and more) • Politics and Money – a bit more of a look at Kamala Harris as the VP pick and what it means to markets and policy (and so, so, so much more) • Chart of the Week Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market dropped 80 points today though at one point was down ~200 points before rallying over half of the ddrop back in the final hour of trading. The weekly jobless claims came in below one million (963,000 to be precise), below the symbolic million mark for the first time since the COVID moment began, and well below the 1.1 million expectation. Continuing claims came in at 15.5 million, down 604,000 from last week. The numbers aren’t “good” – but they are “getting better” – and they are “getting better more than expected” … COVID Health Information • It certainly is reasonable that there are differing opinions as to “where” the herd immunity threshold may be reached, and whether one believes it is a lower number or higher number, the “variable” that sits in the middle is T-cell immunity which is a somewhat unknown component in getting to the total number. Nobel laureate and Stanford Professor, Michael Levitt, has been an incredible resource throughout this whole affair, and has provided the most reliable forecasts thus far about “excess mortalities” and other key measures. He has placed the herd immunity threshold at 15-20% (though again, others place it much higher, with varying differences as to where the T-cell immunity level sits in the equation). The University of Oxford study has placed the number closer to 25%, again, because of exposures many have already had to other coronaviruses, as well as what immunity exists from natural (t-cell) resistance. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market futures were up another 250 points at 3:45am this morning and I immediately thought, “Oh, does Iran have a working vaccine now?” (If you are missing my joke, see yesterday’s missive on Russia). But in all seriousness, markets continue to be trading with very positive sentiment, and with no regard for a stimulus deal (more on that below). The markets ended up today nearly 300 points, and the S&P and Nasdaq each did even better. I simply do not believe the market cares (right now) about a stimulus deal, and the markets digestion (all summer) of the COVID reality has been remarkable. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market futures were screaming higher yet again when I woke up at 3:30am PT this morning, and if the headlines were to be believed (they often aren’t in financial media), it was because the market was reacting to Russia’s claim to have a working vaccine for COVID-19. The market opened 300 points or so, stayed up most of the day, but then sold off late in the day (dropping from +300 to -100). The Nasdaq and Big Tech were actually down all day today, even when the Dow was up 300, and the Nasdaq ended off 1.7% today. Energy, Financials, and REIT’s were still positive on the day. The market was not rallying on Russia vaccine news, in case you were wondering, and today was an extremely mixed bag of conflicting signals and confusions. COVID Health Information • So speaking of that Russian vaccine registration, here are the facts. First, we are talking about Putin and Russia. Let’s just leave that out there as the fact on which all other facts sit. Second, the registration is conditional; trials are actually still ongoing. Third, production has not yet begun. Fourth, no trial details or doctor/scientist reports have been released, let alone peer-reviewed. Fifth, would you take this vaccine? • The total number of Americans hospitalized WITH COVID-19 (which is categorically different from being hospitalized BECAUSE OF COVID-19) has dropped to below 50,000 people nationwide. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This is the replay of the Market Outlook National Video Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm from August 10, 2020. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will: Summarize this week’s action in the market, with a summary of the better-than-expected July jobs report Look at the intense pursuit for a COVID vaccine and what that means for markets Add a little detail and caveat to the current market rally, and big tech’s role within it! Discuss what it will taken to energize midstream energy Correct the record on Q2 GDP growth Think through the growing tensions with China Simulate the stimulus Look under the hood of the current state of the economy (pretty extensively), covering manufacturing, auto sales, hotel traffic, restaurant traffic, and all the things … Politics & Money – the polls are tightening, and we look at a long-held theory about predicting the Presidential winner … Chart of the Week – our cup runneth over with optimism for dividend growth, thanks to present conditions, and past lessons Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market was pointing down over 100 points in the morning futures this morning, but reversed into positive territory when the weekly initial jobless claims came in at 1.18 million vs. the 1.42 million expected (the lowest weekly claims number since the March lockdowns began). After a grind throughout the day, and this time led by technology, the market closed up 185 points. COVID Health Information • New cases were down 25% week over week and, once again, all the talk is around what data may be missing with various weather and tech challenges around the country. Testing itself is down 20% and I am now in both camps as to why that is – that the decreased testing is both a reflection of improved conditions (less symptoms means less test demand), and some glitches and delays around weather and capacity, etc. • One analyst I adore postulated that less people are getting tested because they have seen media reports how long lines and delays to get tested (and get results). I am not sure what to make of that, but I can’t rule it out. • With a h/t to the reader who turned me on to this, I am shocked that the Clark County, Nevada data (i.e. Las Vegas) is not getting any kind of national attention (okay, I am not actually shocked). Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market rallied 375 points today, again closing at its highest point of the day as late trading added momentum to the market. Clearly expectations are high for a stimulus deal, there was a bit of curve widening helping banks today, and earnings season was substantially better than had been anticipated. I would love to credit the vastly improving COVID picture with some of the Dow move higher, but the COVID challenges this summer didn’t do much to harm the market, so I don’t think one can have it both ways. (Note the time ledger on the Dow chart; I started today on the eastern time zone but closed the day on pacific) The ADP jobs report did show 167,000 new jobs month over month, but one would think the number would be higher given the losses of the lockdown. The strong comeback number in June versus this more tepid comeback number in July seems to indicate a slowdown in re-hiring, not surprising given the policy measures taken in July. As is often the case, I can’t explain why but today’s missive has been one of my favorite to prepare. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market was up 164 points today, though the % move up in the S&P and the Nasdaq was less. There was a little move up to start the day, then a flat range for most of the day, followed by a dip, and then a rally into the close. My own feeling is that investors are a little hesitant to be unexposed into a close out of fear that a stimulus deal may get announced while markets are closed … (it isn’t impossible, but I doubt that it is imminent). The “hurricane” set to come through NYC turned out to be a rain shower, and something tells me this won’t be the last time a doom & gloom prediction for New York City turns out to be wrong this year. Speaking of NYC, they have LESS THAN a 1% positivity rate right now with high levels of testing, and that positivity rate has been less than 2% for almost two months! Their new cases are almost not registering at all (57 yesterday, same as some small towns in the midwest). Hospitalizations were just 15 yesterday – again, 15 is a fraction of what towns 1/100th the size are experiencing. And mortalities have been zero many days recently, and not more than ten in a day for several weeks. So I am pleased to see all of this in NYC, and hopeful that it leads to steps towards economic revitalization, not the opposite. Now, with NYC’s health status out of the way, let’s jump everywhere else we normally go. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

COVID Health Information • There is discussion of testing coming down in the last few days and it will be useful for validation of case reductions and so forth if the testing does not slow down – for the case declines to be accompanied to steady or growing testing, not reduced testing. The best way to measure that is in the positivity rate, of course. • Much of the testing reduction, though, appears to be related to the hurricane near Florida. I elaborate on Florida data below in the F.A.C.T. section. • The data point that is most disconnected from testing, the result lag problem, and even mortality reporting is Hospitalizations. Nothing drives policy decisions more than hospitalizations. If by the end of this week we continue to see hospitalizations and ICU’s declining, regardless of testing and cases, I believe we will see some of the more onerous restrictions start to be lifted as August kicks into full gear. • The International Journal of Infectious Diseases has published a study evaluating data in Japan to evaluate the effectiveness of school closures in limiting transmission of coronavirus. The report is a tough but brilliant read, and ultimately concludes that school closure was not an effective policy act in constraining transmission. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will … Give a quick summary of the market this week Do a deeper dive into all the rage in big tech Question if big tech is the only game in town to invest in innovation Look at health care spending in Q2 and why it may shock you Analyze the dollar’s decline Explore the power of the Fed, in very practical terms … Wonder out loud what is going on with the Main Street Lending program The highlight of the week – What to think about Equities Right Now Walk through the full Economic Report Card of the week Politics & Money – the Biden VP pick, investor fears, and the fate of a new stimulus deal Chart of the Week – why China tensions are not going anywhere, and most people like that! … and much, much more … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

COVID Health Information • The seven-day average of new tests is now 820,000, a new high (by far). Nationwide, the increase in cases over the summer is practically in line with testing increases. It is the select states where positive cases outpaced increases in testing. • Add Johnson & Johnson’s Ad26.Cov2-S to the list of vaccine candidates showing very positive results. Their trials thus far were limited to monkeys, though a clinical trial has now begun in Europe and the United States. The full study has been peer-reviewed, and is available upon request. The source of excitement here is that the strong antibody response is coming from a single dose … They are targeting phase 3 trials for September • A source of mine had been sending me daily updates throughout the last few months on one of New Jersey’s premier hospitals and their COVID exposures, particularly when they were seeing hundreds of patients per day, suffered extraordinary losses, and were having to re-purpose facilities to meet demand. At some point it waned, then they shut down the COVID wing, then the COVID patient load of standard inpatients and ICU steadily declined. Well, today, I got an update. For the first time, this hospital does not have a single COVID patient. Praise the Lord. • Not a lot of change in the general messages of the chart quadrant today. Cases are declining; hospitalizations are declining in the troubled places and flattening elsewhere; a few smaller states are seeing some mild growth in cases off of very low levels. The questions in front of us deal with society’s ability to “live” with this virus, and to continue mitigation against severity and mortality. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

COVID Health Information In the “F.A.C.T.” section below, you will see what I believe is the most important data point this summer around the Arizona/New York case data … Yesterday’s new cases vs. the Tuesday of last week declined 4.5%, making it the third day in a row of week-to-week decline, something that Pantheon pointed out to me this morning has not happened since late May. The 7-day moving average of new cases is down 4% since its peak. The California and Texas hospitalization reporting is totally screwed up, and so national trends are distorted when two of the largest states can’t get their reporting straight. Where states had a hospitalization issue and are not struggling with reporting, the trend is very clear that hospitalizations are declining, ICU’s are declining (though not as much as hospital admissions), discharges are increasing, and stay time in hospitals has been cut in half from what it was in April. I want to provide all data, good and bad, so I have been including each day the facts around case growth in some states like Oklahoma, Alaska, Rhode Island, etc. And while the empirical fact of case growth, not case decline, has been pointed out there, I think it adds to the honesty of the presentation to mention that the “case growth” there has come off of very, very low bases. A fascinating look at Sweden’s situation with some quotes from the “Anthony Fauci of Sweden” (Anders Tegnell) throughout. I read a fascinating study this morning from the Mayo Clinic concluding that there have been substantially lower COVID infection rates for those who have received vaccines in the last five years for non-COVID related diseases such as polio, Hepatitis, geriatric flu, and others … Happy to send to those interested (a heavy read). Sometimes the thing to do when forecasts are off is not be critical, but be grateful. And also, to learn for the future … DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

COVID Health Information • Cases were down 8.3% from the same day last week, and these two consecutive days of week-over-week decline represent the first two days of such in about eight weeks. • Testing is up, case growth is dropping, so positivity rate is dropping. All data points have more room to go, though. • The vaccine candidate from Pfizer/BioNTech have begun stage three trials and are targeting a regulatory review by October. Moderna is also in a large, final-stage trial for their candidate. • Dr. Francis Collins, the Director of the National Institutes of Health (Dr. Fauci’s boss), has provided some stunningly useful insights in understanding the greater resistance to COVID embedded in the society than we previously thought. T cell resistance based on past exposure to other coronaviruses (sometimes the cause of colds we have all had) is explaining a larger immunity and resistance than previously understood. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This is the replay of the Market Outlook National Video Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm from July 27, 2020. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Dividend Cafe reminds of the uncertainty that exists around the world today. Europe may seem to have rectified some parts of their uncertainty, but they invited new uncertainties in doing so. The U.S./China tensions are not solving themselves, and you may have read somewhere that COVID case growth hasn't solved itself yet either (highly contagious viruses are interesting, that way). It is a both unavoidable and unsettling reality of life right now - many conditions, globally and not just domestically, are uncertain. In answer to this uncertainty, the Dividend Cafe provides a little refresher of some of the most basic investment principles we believe in, applied to the methodology The Bahnsen Group has built its business around - dividend growth. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Data this week has been quite a mixed bag with some of the encouraging data being more encouraging than I expected, and some of the negative data being more negative than expected. “Sustained outright declines in new cases are not that far off” [Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics], but right now we are just watching the new case curve peak, and disparate results in different states makes it all tough to analyze. The chart and information I provide at the top of our FACT section below is, I think, the most important part of today’s missive. Fundamentally, these three realities have all held up incredibly true: (1) Case growth has been mostly amongst the young and healthier, and (2) Treatments have substantially improved since March/April. I was fascinated to see that Sweden had 132 new cases countrywide yesterday, while Australia had 468. It is just an interesting contrast between a vigorous lock-down and shut-out of visitors (Australia), versus the encouragement of a herd immunity build-up. Sweden’s new cases and mortalities are now so low that all eyes are really on whether or not they get a sort of “second wave.” The chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the National Institute of Epidemiology in India stated yesterday that Dehli, India is fast approaching herd immunity, another massive world city showing huge positivity in seroprevalence tests and therefore a large part of the population already infected. Major League Baseball season officially kicks off tonight, and while fans are not allowed for now even with masks and distancing (no comment), it is symbolically and substantively delightful that the Yankees will be teeing off on the Washington Nationals tonight. I expect big ratings. Really big. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market was up 165 points today, mostly on a flat/choppy day that simply escalated in the last two hours of trading. The general mood was that reports the Republicans are open to extending the federal unemployment benefit at a $400/month level through December drove the last day market move higher, but I am skeptical. It is certainly possible, but it strikes me as utterly incomprehensible that the market would not have known Republicans were going to do something like this. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market closed up +150 points today, though the Nasdaq sold off. Energy led the way today, while Health Care & Technology were the losers. As for health data: Case growth Monday was 4.2% lower than Monday of last week. The national percentage of positive tests was down to 7.9%, the lowest in nearly two weeks. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market was flat today in the Dow, but both the Nasdaq and the S&P were up (the Nasdaq meaningfully so after last week’s travails). Today’s missive really, truly does go all around the horn – lots and lots of up to date health info, and some useful info with the stimulus bill, housing, the Fed, and more. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this week's Dividend Cafe we focus on the trade-off of volatility and expected returns A market summary of the week that just was Where the next stimulus bill may be heading Why QE is not acting like debt monetization (yet) ... and so much more Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market missed out on its first five consecutive days of price increase by dropping 135 points today … Initial jobless claims came in at 1.3 million for the week, a tad higher than 1.25 million expected. Continuing claims dropped to 17.3 million, a bigger drop than expected and now down 30% from the 25 million high of March. Retail sales were up +7.5% in June vs. +5% expected. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market closed up 230 points today, zig-zagging around most of the day after opening up +350 points. The driver was optimism around vaccine talk (and it is not just one source of optimism, as you will see in today’s Health Data). Earnings season is too young to be much of a driver but I selfishly like what I have seen so far. Let’s jump around the bend as always … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Futures were up close to a hundred points last night, vacillating between the flat line and +100, at 3:30am ET this morning they were flat, and by 4:00am they were +100. But really it was all worthless until bank earnings started coming in, and when the first mega-bank reported their results, futures had a mixed response (some names up, some names down) The market opened up a bit and throughout the day grinded higher. Bottom line, by 4pm ET, the market closed up 557 points, and the Nasdaq even ended up despite moments of big sell-off mid-day. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This is the replay of the Market Outlook National Video Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This week’s Dividend Cafe is a long and juicy one – lots of topics, lots of practical subjects (see list below), and plenty for the wonky types and those who loathe such verbose diversions. But what is most important to me in this week’s Dividend Cafe is that it addresses the issue I believe is most necessary for grown-ups to deal with in this day age: In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will: • Recap the week that just was in markets • Make the case for a market change in the near future – not one defined by all going down or all going up, but rather one defined by a shift in leadership, away from the popularity group and into the more fundamental group. • Set the table for a “two-act play” around how we evaluate the economy – the lockdown recession and recovery from such; followed by the “aftershock” phase that deals with structural ramifications from that first phase • The burden of where rates are now and where they have been • Ask what has happened to oil prices in 2020, and why! • Take a look at what the real issue I have with bonds is as I look out into the future • Note the threats hanging over FANG • Look at what to expect out of the earnings season that begins this week • Ask where are we with the U.S. dollar, and what becomes the more investible equity space when the dollar declines? The answer may surprise you. • Provide a little history on the quarters and years that follow strong quarters. It’s rare to get such universally compelling data. • Provide our weekly economic report card of the good, bad, and ugly out there, with a special look this week at manufacturing, services, air travel, and more. • Do Politics & Money • And in the Chart of the Week, let you decided if we are inflationary woods, or a deflationary jungle Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I’ll save you the play by play of what happened with futures last night and this morning, but it was pretty boring. And the markets moved higher a bit pre-market when the jobs numbers came out (see below). But what moved markets lower during trading today seems to be (and I say “seems” because it really doesn’t seem to be much of a market moving event to me, but it was perfectly time to the release of the news) the announcement that the Supreme Court is allowing the New York DA to get Trump’s tax returns. Anyways, the market went down over 500 points, but closed down 350, and actually the S&P was down less than half what the Dow was, and the Nasdaq was modestly up today. So it was not a normal day. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Futures were modestly positive all of last evening and into my morning wake-up. They turned negative a few hours before the market opened and bounced around pre-market. The market opened up a bit, then dropped a few hundred points, then bounced around throughout the day, and rallied into the close to end up +177 points on the day. Not a huge day one way or the other, but some intra-day volatility (as usual). Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I woke up this morning to an overnight Nikkei that had dropped a tad, European markets down a tad, and U.S. futures down 100 points or so. Futures eased lower throughout the morning (which I might add, now total about six hours before the market opens, versus three hours on west coast – and I love it!) … The market opened down 200 and stayed in that range most of the day before petering out in the final hour of trading and closing near the low (in fairness, this would have been five days in a row of the market being up) … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market futures never did point down last evening, and I woke up very early eastern time to futures pointing up 450 points. After a cup of coffee I realized that China’s market was up a stunning 5.7% today alone. Consider this for those mystified by the actions of the U.S. stock market: the Shanghai Composite Index is now the highest it has been since early 2018. We live in crazy times. Anyways, the Dow opened up big, and traded between +300 and +400 most of the day, and closed right near the high of the day, up +460 points. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this week's Dividend Cafe we will look at: The real lesson of 2020 so far, evidenced in Q1 being the 9th worst quarter in history, and Q2 being the 9th best quarter in history, and what behavioral lessons some investors may want to pick up from this. We do an extensive dive into what lies ahead for 2020, and our views on economic recovery, stimulus, a vaccine, volatility, and so much more. What the jobs report yesterday did to encourage us, and what is still lacking - and will be for quite some time Why Fed liquidity provisions may or may not matter to the real economy (i.e. jobs), but certainly matter to investors The under-appreciated tensions coming to the surface with China after Bejing's passage of this Hong Kong security measure. What history says about an investor's timeline and corresponding expectation How foreign investors apparently feel about American markets right now And all the economic data for the week to form that perfectly mixed picture of ambiguity. Retail. Consumption. Jobs. Capex. Copper. Checking account balances. We have it all. And in Politics & Money ... the betting odds are blowing out for Joe Biden; what does that mean for investors, and what might the next three months of the stock market tell us about what to expect in November Finally, in the Chart of the Week, some calendar history to take us home Let's jump in to the Dividend Cafe! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market closed the shortened holiday week up over 800 points for the week, with the market up almost 100 points today. Futures were really flat last night, and at 4:30am Eastern this morning were up over 200 points. The jobs report came at 8:30am ET and futures added on another 200 points. Markets were up 400 points at one point and moved up and down throughout the day before selling off substantially in the final 30-45 minutes of trading (not a surprise at all going into the long holiday weekend). Regarding that jobs report, the big bullish news was that 4.8 million jobs were added back in June, about 1.6 million more than the 3.2 million consensus expectation. I want to reiterate – the fact that the “experts” continue to get economic projected data so wrong is not so much that they are incompetent as that this is all very, very hard – and not based on solid historical precedents. That said, I would recommend the pundits moderate their predictions with greater humility, but again, this is uncharted territory. 2.1 million jobs in leisure and hospitality were brought back. This makes it all the more important that policymakers not capitulate to the panic mob and allow a safe and sensible re-opening to continue. More importantly, it does show a continued trend that job losses were initially classified as temporary, are indeed proving to be temporary. Now, permanent job losses were up 500,000, and that is a cause for concern. The percentage of the unemployment we have classified as “temporary” as gone from 78% to 59%, yet that is largely because a good portion of those temporarily unemployed people have been hired back. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This is the audio replay of National Call Market Outlook from TBG CIO - David L. Bahnsen. With Host Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice and Associates. Discussed is the impact of increased COVID cases in certain states on markets, and will attempt to evaluate the latest economic and investment developments, and what we are anticipating as we officially enter the second half of the year. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

• Some clarification on COVID and the current media coverage • How the result of “financialization” is to ignore capital investment, and how starving the economy of capital spending deprives it of future productivity • The stress of the stress tests! • The lost decade of gold is a powerful antidote to the strange argument that central bank abuses are bullish for gold. If the last decade wasn’t the golden era of central bank libertinism, I don’t know what was. And yet gold is just now trying to get back within striking distance of where it was ten years ago?? • A refresher on our friend, Illiquidity, and why behavioral finance drives the return premium in private market assets – a section that should get its own dedicated Dividend Cafe! • How good/bad is the economic “recovery” going? • And the secret sauce on how politics works in conjunction with markets … what we expect out of the next few months as various political scenarios play themselves out • The Chart of the Week looks at the three stages of the COVID era … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Futures last night really hugged around the flat line non-stop from 3pm pacific until 9pm or so when I stopped checking. At 3am this morning they were still flat, and throughout the morning going into the market open they moved a tad lower. The Dow got down as much as 200 points, gyrated around most of the day up and down, and then rallied the final hour of trading to close up 300 points. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market futures were pretty much flat all of last evening, and I awoke at 3:15am to a down 250 level. By the open, futures were pointing to down ~700. It opened there, got as down as -850, and closed down 700 points on the day. COVID case growth and coverage of it is a fine explanation for market volatility today, but again the performance in structured credit today – mortgages, loans, etc. – paints a different picture. Threats of tariffs with Europe probably did not help, and neither did ongoing polls showing Biden’s lead over Trump continuing to grow. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Well this was one of the crazier 24 hours in quite some time, more so for what happened last night than today. Futures opened up about 100 points last night, and slowly inched higher for the first couple hours into the evening. Around 6:30pm pacific/9:30pm eastern, my devices starting blowing up that futures had collapsed 400 points (so a net swing of over 500 points) after “White House advisor, Pete Navarro, announced that the phase one China trade deal was over.” Well, it turns out, not for the first time, Navarro was speaking hyperbolically. Within 30 minutes futures came roaring back to even. President Trump took to the airwaves to say that the trade deal is “fully intact.” I decided to watch the replay of Navarro’s Fox interview, and it was rather obvious that it was a long-winded question and the answer was disconnected from that portion of the question. Regardless, by 3:30am this morning futures were up 300 points. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Futures were pointing down as much as ~300 points Sunday night (netted for fair value), though that number improved as the night went along. By 3:15am this morning they were pointing to a flat market open. The market traded down ~200 points early and closed up over 150 points, in a 400-point range today … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

• There is a solution of the problem of always having a reason to sell, and always having a reason to buy: It is – always having a plan … • The nation’s debt is talked about as much any topic in the political/economic sphere, but rarely talked about with any real practical sense of what the eventual possible outcomes actually look like. Today we provide five crystalized options for what eventually comes of America’s national debt. This is crucially important for people who care about their kids and grandkids, and people who don’t. • The “financialization” of the American economy is happening right before our eyes, and it is a major consequence of the monetary regime in which we live. It needs to be understood – the good, bad, and ugly. • Why inflationary efforts are creating more deflation – an economic primer you will love, and your college professors never gave (or got themselves) • Proof that dividend growth requires active management, and that passively trying to get it will ensure you lose it • Small-cap investing is very promising coming out of recessions, and if you think dividend growth needs active management, you should see the data in small-cap! • The economy is picking back up – but wow does it have a lot of work to do. Check out the updated data from air travel, restaurant reservations, retail shopping, and more. And then, check out what really, really matters – business investment. Some investors are focusing on mall traffic in Q2 of 2020. We are focusing on industrial production in Q1 of 2021. • The Chart of the Week tells you why the market keeps embarrassing not just bears, but those who don’t understand how markets work • And in Politics & Money, look at worst news imaginable for President Trump, and the best news imaginable … all at once. It’s an action packed Dividend Cafe, so jump on in … There is no U.S. Open to watch, so you really have no excuse. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com