The Dividend Cafe

Consider this week’s Dividend Cafe an early Christmas present, not just because of Brexit and the phase one China trade deal and, of course, a 2019 in risk assets that has been one for the ages … but mostly because this is essentially a double issue Dividend Cafe with ample coverage on all the things you should be caring about right now as an investor. Because there will not be a Dividend Cafe next week we doubled up for you this week, so take a break from wrapping presents, grab a coffee (or egg nog), and jump on into the Dividend Cafe … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: On Friday the regular Dividend Café for the week went out, and it included as much of an update as possible around the UK elections and the China trade war … But within hours of the submission there was more news, and then the next day even more, and then over the weekend even more still. I don’t want to wait until Friday to provide the latest and greatest … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: The markets ripped higher and I will unpack more details when you click into this week's Dividend Cafe ... Since the market’s massive rally last Friday after mind-numbing good jobs numbers the market had barely budged this week. The Democrats in the House filed articles of impeachment against the President this week. The Fed stood still on interest rates. And the British voters headed to the polls to elect their Prime Minister. It wasn’t a boring week in the world, just in the market (until Thursday morning). So this week we’ll dive into the jobs data, the strength of the economy, the vulnerabilities in the economy, the pending tariff deadline, and all sorts of big things. It’s a whopper of info, so let’s get caffeinated in the Dividend Cafe ... Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Welcome to the final month of 2019! I. Love. December. I love it no matter what the market does. I love it no matter what the news cycle is doing. It is just a wonderful time of year, and I have done my best to bring in this special month with a special Dividend Cafe - covering all the ups and downs in the market this week, really meaty stuff on the trade war, the most important thing I could ever say about "perma-bears," the timely reality under-pinning dividend growth, and a really crucial economic lesson. I think this is the best Dividend Cafe of the year (okay, maybe I say that too much), but jump on in and let's get in the December spirit ... Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thanksgiving is the one week of the year, where we bypass market commentary and economic analysis in the Dividend Café. It serves as a logical week to take a break from the Fed, global GDP growth, the trade war, earnings, and market valuations. And affirmatively, we should be doing a Thanksgiving edition of Dividend Café every week, because that is how much gratitude we have at The Bahnsen Group. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this week’s special Dividend Cafe podcast and video, The Bahnsen Group’s Investment Committee dives into the economic policy platform of surging Democratic nominee, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Some refreshers on dividend taxation are in order, and so much more. A pre-Thanksgiving special edition! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: As of press time mid-day on Thursday, the market was down about 250 points on the week, which is not noteworthy in that 250 points is nothing, especially divided by 28,000, and especially because it is three or four days of action. I only mention it because (a) Some of you are getting bored by the low volatility market of the last few weeks and this makes it sound like markets moved, and (b) Some of the chatter behind the couple points we moved are interesting. But I am not going to pretend that there is much substance behind a 250 point move; markets can move 250 points on a sneeze! What I will do this week is provide some history, provide some economics, and provide some perspective – because frankly, I don’t think there are a lot of other places to get it right now! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: We have spent way too much time talking about the trade war, tariffs, the Fed, and Trump this year, and not nearly enough time talking about sustainable growth in the emerging markets. Our Investment Committee thoroughly unpacks what we believe to be one of the more intriguing parts of our investing worldview at The Bahnsen Group in this extensive and thought-provoking discussion. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Greetings from New York City where I actually spent a day in Connecticut this week with clients and another day in Boston with clients and investment banks. I am en route back to California as this is being delivered to you, where I will immediately experience a 50-degree bump in weather from departure city to arrival city. Markets had no such weather volatility this week as things were reasonably tame yet again (at least as of press time). This has thus far been a very flat week in markets both from start to finish but also intra-day as well. I think the reason for that is examined in a clear and understandable way in this week's Dividend Cafe. But I strive to do a lot more in the Dividend Cafe this week than just look at the week that was in markets ... We look at the full scope of the China trade status, going into 2020, we look at the cash on the sidelines of the American economy, and we look at where growth can be expected to be for years to come (this is my favorite section of the Dividend Cafe this week!). I even offer a periodic reminder on the realities of gold investing, and of course, offer the normal mix of politics and money. Click on in, check it out, and welcome to the Dividend Cafe! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: I am quite happy to say that this week's market saw several new all-time highs reached (Dow and S&P 500) - more on that in the Dividend Cafe - but additionally happy to say that the reason for such was largely centered around pretty significant movement in the China trade talks ... So we unpack at great length this week all going on with the trade talks, and we also cover the math of "all-time highs." We also get to discuss manufacturing, the crazy IPO market, the reason people like the stock market right now (us too!), and so much more. This is a weekly Dividend Cafe I am proud of - click on in ... Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Our 14th annual New York due diligence trip featuring 20+ meetings with top portfolio managers, economic strategists, and alternatives partners was a whirlwind, and in this special podcast, we invite you into the key takeaways for us on this significant trip. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: And just like that, we find ourselves in the month of November, a stunningly quick completion of the first ten months of the year. This means that we are now officially in the holiday season, that the Presidential election is only one year away, and that end of the year portfolio re-positionings are on the top of everyone's mind (okay, not everyone's, but at least ours). This week's market produced all-time highs in the S&P 500, and this week's Dividend Cafe looks at why that is, how painfully unintelligent it is to think that "an all-time high" is something to be afraid of, and why the Fed did what they did this week. There is plenty to chew on, so please do grab a coffee, and jump on into the Dividend Cafe ... Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Greetings from New York City where we are approaching the end of an intense week of meetings, discussions, debates, analysis, and soon, decisions. It has been invigorating and we still have a couple of days of meetings to go, so a more comprehensive download will linger for another week. But in the meantime, this week's Dividend Cafe will recap the week in markets, offer an update on the Fed, explore the latest on NAFTA 2.0, seek to scare you a bit, and seek to encourage you a bit. There is also yet another pretty comprehensive analysis of the political landscape and what it means to markets right now. So jump on into the Dividend Cafe, and let's explore the latest and greatest in the world of investing. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Greetings from the financial capital of the world that is New York City where I have officially begun my annual "due diligence" week, and where another week in the markets deserves comprehensive analysis. We focus our efforts this week on what was done and not done in the "pre-written, phase one" trade deal, but we also delve into Brexit, the yield curve, Elizabeth Warren proposals, and even the lottery this week. But one thing I ask this week - persevere through all the weekly commentary to get to the "economic lesson" of the week. It is the subject most near and dear to my heart this week, and hopefully will be well worth the listen. So jump on into the Dividend Cafe! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: The market loved the word Friday that the trade war talks did not blow up, and that they, in fact, have created the possibility of a reasonably positive “phase one” deal. The issues around the trade war and their impact on the economy, the market, and the political atmosphere, are all so significant, they warranted a SPECIAL podcast discussion with our investment committee. So listen or view below as you wish, and reach out with any questions! This is a very comprehensive discussion of the whole matter, and you deserve to have the misinformation made right. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Some day-to-day volatility in the market unsurprisingly surfaced in markets this week as we were down 100, down 300, then up 200 the first three days of the week, all around various chitter-chatter as to where China-trade talks were or were expected to be or were rumored to go or whatever ... This is a frustrating Dividend Cafe to send because I have no choice in terms of the timeline but to submit it before we have gotten real reports on how the trade talks have gone Thursday, and yet you will be receiving this Friday and of course by now there may very well be some updated report as to how the status of such talks. Of course, by early next week, I will provide an interim Dividend Cafe to give an update on the state of affairs ... The trade talks are the largest macro issue to watch right now, as once again the futures market has all but fully priced in another Fed quarter-point rate cut (at the October FOMC meeting at the end of the month). But markets are likely to respond to earnings results as the new season kicks off this coming week. Expectations are again reduced so how companies report revenue and profit results from the quarter that just was, and what sort of guidance they offer about expected results in the quarters ahead, are very likely to move the needle (in the overall market level, and of course in individual company results). This week's Dividend Cafe is really focused on the economy, the Fed, politics, and earnings. We look at a preview of earnings season, the idea of a QE4 coming, a deeper dive on economic indicators, and of course, Politics and Money. Grab your coffee, and jump on into the Dividend Cafe ... Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: As hard as it may be to focus on anything other than political drama and the China trade war, we actually have an earnings season starting next week. Listen in or watch as our Investment Committee dives into all our expectations and thoughts of the earnings season that is about to begin, and what it means for investors. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: As of press time the market was down significantly on the week, down approximately 800 points on the Dow since Tuesday morning. Believe it or not, Tuesday/Wednesday were the first back-to-back days of down over 1% (each day) in the S&P 500 all year. We need to look at what the issues are in the market, what to expect as we get into the fourth quarter, and look at the variety of issues that actually matter right now in markets and the world economy. From manufacturing to impeachment and lots of politics, we have it all in this week's Dividend Cafe. This Week's Market Drop Manufacturing and Services Sector Data The Trade War's Effect on the Economy Markets and Impeachment Europe is a Debacle Politics and Markets Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: What does history tell us about political ramifications to one’s portfolio decision-making? What are the four categories we look at when evaluating political relevance to market action? And what ought investors do in these highly complicated times? This latest podcast/vidcast from our investment committee provides a quality perspective on how to think about the present environment, and will leave you with actionable takeaways on what should be done, and just as importantly, what should not be. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: With the trade war still front and center in the global economy, earning season three weeks away, and continued questions about the Fed’s plans floating around, why did all market conversations seem to slip into the background this week? Oh yes, the perpetual reality show that is Washington D.C. took over the news this week, and it has led to maybe the most political Dividend Café of recent memory. Now fear not, there is ample coverage of U.S. economic health, monetary policy, and the investment issues near and dear to your heart, but some extensive political-economic commentary is warranted this week. So jump on into the Dividend Café, and we’ll do our best to offend no one, or everyone. Mandatory Fed Discussion An economic reality check Summary of the economic outlook Are households vulnerable to equity prices? Small-cap warning Big word jargon to describe Fed failures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Our investment committee creates this podcast for you to tackle a variety of issues pertinent to investors. The mass increase in the popularity of index funds is the latest topic, only we don’t do it with the dryness and academic focus many advisors may pour on this topic. Rather, we delve into the subject of index funds with a view towards what matters to investors, where risks may actually exist, and what we believe can be done about it. This is worth your time to listen to or view! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Some weeks are filled with little news but lots of market volatility, and then there are weeks like this one, where there actually was very little market volatility, but a lot of news. In this week's Dividend Cafe, we dive into what will be some of the biggest news events of the year, and question why there wasn't a bigger market impact from it all. Investors wanting to understand better what the Fed did this week, what they didn't do, why they did it, and what it means to them, will be well-served to jump into the Dividend Cafe! We won't just leave you with a little Fed discussion and some thoughts on Oil and the Saudi attack ... The dollar, the trade war, negative yields, and even fracking get a little attention as well. This is a "do not miss" visit to the Dividend Cafe. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

4/5ths of The Bahnsen Group's investment committee tackles this week's outlook on the Fed and interest rates, the dicey situation with Iran and the market's response, and most importantly; What makes a good stock?

Topics discussed: One can be forgiven for assuming the trade war ended in looking at the market. On August 14 (one month ago) the Dow was below 25,500. At press time this week, the Dow is at 27,200, so nearly a 2,000 point recovery in one month (and back to the market level we were at before the re-provocation of the trade war leaving July and entering August). How is this possible? This "cycle" has played out several times over the last 18 months. Where markets go from here really depends on whether or not “any progress is made.” My goal is to unpack some of that this week in the Dividend Cafe. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: This week's Dividend Cafe podcast with the entire TBG Investment Committee almost makes it without talking about the trade war, the Fed, or Presidential tweets (not quite). But what we do accomplish this week is a digestible, succinct, informative talk on how portfolios are often constructed, and how they ought to be. You will not be surprised to learn that sometimes those two things are not the same ... Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Despite the shortened market week, we got another display of market uncertainty and persistent volatility this week (though lately the upside volatility has outweighed the downside volatility). We use this week's Dividend Cafe to really jump around the horn and give you a succinct but well-packed punch in the state of markets, the outlook to come, the state of interest rates, the concerns in the economy, the challenges, the bright spots, and everything else. This will prove to be an easy read, so please, jump on in to this week's Dividend Cafe ... The Market, The Trade War, The Rate War, The Yield Curve What's the Fuss About Brexit Where Do Markets Go From Here?Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: The bulk of the first half of this week's Dividend Cafe is dedicated to that which is most relevant to the markets right here and right now - the latest, the greatest, and all that is fit to print. Trade war, interest rates, the yield curve - I promise you will get sick of all these terms by the time this little era comes to an end. But the second half has a prolonged section that I believe you will find far more compelling and relevant to your investment strategy. These economic matters are pivotally important to developing the right framework for investing, and I am completely obsessed with studying it, communicating about it, and ultimately, properly positioning client capital in the midst of it. I expect it to be the great duty of the next twenty years of my adult life and calling. So if this sounds dramatic, click on through and see what the fuss is all about. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com Subscribe to the Dividend Cafe Podcast

Today’s podcast features our entire Investment Committee in a battle royale (of mostly agreement), talking trade war, markets yields, negative rates, “this time it’s different,” stock sectors, and alternative investments. Subscribe to the Dividend Café Podcast Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen unpacks everything from the market’s response to "the trade war" and the "the rate war" to where things stand in the ongoing efforts with China, to what the Fed is doing, to the way people are ventilating about the yield curve. Market Volatility The Trade War The Fed and Interest Rates Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Fears Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: For many years now we have been using our Dividend Café property to bring you frequent market commentary and portfolio perspective. Last year, we introduced the Fiscal Feminist identity, spear-headed by our very own Kimberlee Davis to address significant financial issues relevant in the lives of women. Today, we bring you a blended Dividend Café/Fiscal Feminist (the Dividend Feminist, or the Fiscal Café – you pick!) – wherein Kimberlee and I discuss together the whole landscape of financial advice, what approach to portfolio construction a new investor ought to take, and how issues pertinent to women and the Dividend Cafe are far more overlapped than many want to believe. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: We know the following things about the last 2-3 weeks in the market: (A) The China/trade war has blown up (B) The Yield curve has inverted (C) Negative yields persist all over the globe (D) Recession talk is everywhere So markets are obviously volatile, but it isn’t clear how these above things relate to one another, and people want to know what is going on. What I seek to do in this short, succinct podcast is get right to the point about what is going on – short term, and long term. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Is volatility back? You tell me - here was the market action this week: Down 400 points Monday, Up 400 points Tuesday. Down 800 points Wednesday. And as I submit this for the week, Thursday (late morning) we are up a little over 100 points (but saw the pre-market futures up and down hundreds of points at a time). There is always one reason for "up & down" volatility (is there any other kind?), and it is uncertainty. In the Dividend Cafe this week we are going to look at the sources of the uncertainty and seek to enhance your understanding of the world affairs that are driving capital markets at present. This has been the most volatile week of the year in the market, with last week being the second most. In other words, since July 31 we really been sitting at non-stop market drama. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Volatility expectations in the weeks/months ahead Trade war Currency Brexit Hong Kong The Fed Asset allocation when the 10-year is 1.65% and equities face uncertainty and volatility Within equities, what looks good? Energy sector Is big tech/new tech dead? Low beta or high beta? Outlook for dividend growth Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: The last peace treaty in this trade war was supposed to be simple enough: The Chinese agreed to buy more agriculture from the United States and the U.S. agreed to lay off Huawei. Not even that was able to last. The intense stock market volatility of the last week is not the most problematic aspect of the trade war from an economic standpoint. We will focus our analysis on: (1) The macroeconomic impact on U.S. growth, and (2) The currency implications for global markets The outlook for U.S. economic growth is falling apart under the pressures of this trade war. Focusing on the far right of this chart, you see the Business Investment aspect of GDP growth (blue line) accelerating significantly after President Trump was elected, in line with the CEO survey on planned capital expenditures (red line). And then you see both collapsing together in response to trade tensions. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: The market suffered its worst week of the year last week and the downside accelerated today in response to China’s currency depreciation and the general market realization that this trade war ending is nowhere in sight. We sat down as an Investment Committee this morning and recorded our best thoughts and ideas around all of this to inform and edify your understanding as it pertains to your portfolio and overall economic expectations. We particularly hope you will at least listen to the ending conclusions we offer. Please listen to this special Dividend Café podcast! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: This week's trip to the Dividend Cafe will look at the overall health of the U.S. economy, at the state of credit markets, at all the context around the Fed's present thinking, and some very important reminders about dividend growth during this crucial time. Investors should be prepared for two things when central bankers add stimulus to asset prices that are already operating as if they do not need any stimulus: (1) What is high is very possibly going to go higher; and (2) Bad investments will get made, and bad investments do not end well, ever. No central banker or politician can change that. The Federal Reserve did something they have not done in nearly eleven years this week - they cut interest rates Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Markets appear to be up a tad on the week, with little volatility to show for it (as of press time, anyway). Earnings season is off to a really strong start, but I want to wait one more week to begin "report carding" earnings season (partially to not jinx it, and partially because it is a tad premature). I took advantage of this week's slow news week (sorry, Mueller) to talk about the broad economy and my perspective on where we are in the macroeconomic cycle, and what it means for all of us at this stage in the game. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

As we enter the middle part of the summer, we also enter the beginning of Q2 earnings season, and this all adds up to fun times. The equity markets puttered around a bit this week and between the "wait and see" on a China trade deal and the "wait and see" on Fed accommodation, earnings ought to be the major story for the next couple of weeks. In the meantime, I really tried to use this week's Dividend Cafe to unpack some foundational things about the U.S. economy. What does the yield curve tell us about a recession? Why has the Fed become so accommodative to capital markets (there is an answer!)? What would make someone want our Fed to not be independent? What do pension funds tell us about the future of asset allocation? What can government spending tell us about the state of economic growth? If all of these questions are addressed this week, and they are, plus a few MLP and Brexit comments to boot, can you see why I am so excited to have you join me in the Dividend Cafe? Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Will the Fed Cut? Is a recession coming? A look at results of the tax reform bill Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: A Pregnant Pause in the Trade Tirade Dividend Cafe; How it All Began Emerging Markets equals Earnings Growth Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Markets in the first six months of 2019 Fear of Market Highs Where we are in the trade war with China Dividend Cafe Podcast will be merged with Advice & Insights Podcast going forward. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: What stocks and bonds are saying to markets The Fed and Credit Markets Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Fed put vs. Trump call - week #2 What Mexico Tariffs? Business Loses Confidence Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Mr. Tariff Man moves south Are tariffs inflationary? The Fed's signal to markets. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Effects of trade war on business investment Impact is not limited to US and China Brexit, The Fed, and more Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Financial Advice vs Human Nature China Trade War Sovereign Debt Fed and Interest Rates Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: The Great Trade Update - Three Options left on the table The HIT to the GDP Growth - it's real and it could be big China's "Nuclear" Option - what are the chances that things go Boom Links mentioned in this episode: TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Current state of trade negotians with China Market Reactions to renewed threats of trade war. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Earnings Watch - more come but things look good Capex Showing Signs of Life GDP - 'nuff said Reading between the Fed lines Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Sentiment vs. Fundamentals When you pray that past is not prologue Real Estate vs. Stocks in Recession Getting QE right so we can get the next five years right Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com