The Dividend Cafe

Topics discussed: For many years now we have been using our Dividend Café property to bring you frequent market commentary and portfolio perspective. Last year, we introduced the Fiscal Feminist identity, spear-headed by our very own Kimberlee Davis to address significant financial issues relevant in the lives of women. Today, we bring you a blended Dividend Café/Fiscal Feminist (the Dividend Feminist, or the Fiscal Café – you pick!) – wherein Kimberlee and I discuss together the whole landscape of financial advice, what approach to portfolio construction a new investor ought to take, and how issues pertinent to women and the Dividend Cafe are far more overlapped than many want to believe. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: We know the following things about the last 2-3 weeks in the market: (A) The China/trade war has blown up (B) The Yield curve has inverted (C) Negative yields persist all over the globe (D) Recession talk is everywhere So markets are obviously volatile, but it isn’t clear how these above things relate to one another, and people want to know what is going on. What I seek to do in this short, succinct podcast is get right to the point about what is going on – short term, and long term. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Is volatility back? You tell me - here was the market action this week: Down 400 points Monday, Up 400 points Tuesday. Down 800 points Wednesday. And as I submit this for the week, Thursday (late morning) we are up a little over 100 points (but saw the pre-market futures up and down hundreds of points at a time). There is always one reason for "up & down" volatility (is there any other kind?), and it is uncertainty. In the Dividend Cafe this week we are going to look at the sources of the uncertainty and seek to enhance your understanding of the world affairs that are driving capital markets at present. This has been the most volatile week of the year in the market, with last week being the second most. In other words, since July 31 we really been sitting at non-stop market drama. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Volatility expectations in the weeks/months ahead Trade war Currency Brexit Hong Kong The Fed Asset allocation when the 10-year is 1.65% and equities face uncertainty and volatility Within equities, what looks good? Energy sector Is big tech/new tech dead? Low beta or high beta? Outlook for dividend growth Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: The last peace treaty in this trade war was supposed to be simple enough: The Chinese agreed to buy more agriculture from the United States and the U.S. agreed to lay off Huawei. Not even that was able to last. The intense stock market volatility of the last week is not the most problematic aspect of the trade war from an economic standpoint. We will focus our analysis on: (1) The macroeconomic impact on U.S. growth, and (2) The currency implications for global markets The outlook for U.S. economic growth is falling apart under the pressures of this trade war. Focusing on the far right of this chart, you see the Business Investment aspect of GDP growth (blue line) accelerating significantly after President Trump was elected, in line with the CEO survey on planned capital expenditures (red line). And then you see both collapsing together in response to trade tensions. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: The market suffered its worst week of the year last week and the downside accelerated today in response to China’s currency depreciation and the general market realization that this trade war ending is nowhere in sight. We sat down as an Investment Committee this morning and recorded our best thoughts and ideas around all of this to inform and edify your understanding as it pertains to your portfolio and overall economic expectations. We particularly hope you will at least listen to the ending conclusions we offer. Please listen to this special Dividend Café podcast! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: This week's trip to the Dividend Cafe will look at the overall health of the U.S. economy, at the state of credit markets, at all the context around the Fed's present thinking, and some very important reminders about dividend growth during this crucial time. Investors should be prepared for two things when central bankers add stimulus to asset prices that are already operating as if they do not need any stimulus: (1) What is high is very possibly going to go higher; and (2) Bad investments will get made, and bad investments do not end well, ever. No central banker or politician can change that. The Federal Reserve did something they have not done in nearly eleven years this week - they cut interest rates Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Markets appear to be up a tad on the week, with little volatility to show for it (as of press time, anyway). Earnings season is off to a really strong start, but I want to wait one more week to begin "report carding" earnings season (partially to not jinx it, and partially because it is a tad premature). I took advantage of this week's slow news week (sorry, Mueller) to talk about the broad economy and my perspective on where we are in the macroeconomic cycle, and what it means for all of us at this stage in the game. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

As we enter the middle part of the summer, we also enter the beginning of Q2 earnings season, and this all adds up to fun times. The equity markets puttered around a bit this week and between the "wait and see" on a China trade deal and the "wait and see" on Fed accommodation, earnings ought to be the major story for the next couple of weeks. In the meantime, I really tried to use this week's Dividend Cafe to unpack some foundational things about the U.S. economy. What does the yield curve tell us about a recession? Why has the Fed become so accommodative to capital markets (there is an answer!)? What would make someone want our Fed to not be independent? What do pension funds tell us about the future of asset allocation? What can government spending tell us about the state of economic growth? If all of these questions are addressed this week, and they are, plus a few MLP and Brexit comments to boot, can you see why I am so excited to have you join me in the Dividend Cafe? Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Will the Fed Cut? Is a recession coming? A look at results of the tax reform bill Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: A Pregnant Pause in the Trade Tirade Dividend Cafe; How it All Began Emerging Markets equals Earnings Growth Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Markets in the first six months of 2019 Fear of Market Highs Where we are in the trade war with China Dividend Cafe Podcast will be merged with Advice & Insights Podcast going forward. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: What stocks and bonds are saying to markets The Fed and Credit Markets Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Fed put vs. Trump call - week #2 What Mexico Tariffs? Business Loses Confidence Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Mr. Tariff Man moves south Are tariffs inflationary? The Fed's signal to markets. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Effects of trade war on business investment Impact is not limited to US and China Brexit, The Fed, and more Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Financial Advice vs Human Nature China Trade War Sovereign Debt Fed and Interest Rates Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: The Great Trade Update - Three Options left on the table The HIT to the GDP Growth - it's real and it could be big China's "Nuclear" Option - what are the chances that things go Boom Links mentioned in this episode: TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Current state of trade negotians with China Market Reactions to renewed threats of trade war. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Earnings Watch - more come but things look good Capex Showing Signs of Life GDP - 'nuff said Reading between the Fed lines Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Sentiment vs. Fundamentals When you pray that past is not prologue Real Estate vs. Stocks in Recession Getting QE right so we can get the next five years right Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Things really are good, but they really are sensitive to conditions that could make them not good The term “insurance cut” A slowdown in small business job creation Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Earnings over next 4 Weeks Q1 Anecdote Brexit and other Beltway Bulls and Bears Links mentioned in this episode: TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Q1 in the can Capex update The oil price conundrum China trade deal Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: And Germany is the Good One Growth story for the next decade The Fed's Special Counsel Investigation is called the Bond Market Links mentioned in this episode: TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: “FOMO” – that fear of missing out Earnings watch Brexit Exit Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Obsessed with CAPEX Job Report Fears Tax Reform Bill is a Sizeable One Brexit Bonanza! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Earnings Valuations Tell the Tale The Emerging Case for Emerging Markets European Stimulus or Something Else? Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: My Diatribe on Inflation Chairman Powell Talks Inflation The Case For Financials Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: The Fed Minutes More Clarity on Tax Refunds Calm Before The Storm? Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Earnings Watch 2019 Capex Watch 2019 Truth About Tax Reform Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Bottom-up and Top Down Investing Market sector allocation Politics and markets Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Who Is Leading Who? What would Mr. Contrarian do? Catching a good return by the tail Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Current state of the market Chinese economic growth & their credit markets US corporate debt and monetary normalization Housing Market Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Are Markets Turning Optimistic? What to Make of the Brexit Drama 3.Separating The Taxed from the Untaxed Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Safety isn't Always Safe No Fix from Fixed Income Only Corporate Debt One Rung Above Junk Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Fear of a Melt-Up?? Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Risk Are Computers to Blame? Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: What Happened in December? High Yield Is Highly Important Volatility, Meet Valuation Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: The secret sauce in the Fed's actions and words Cost of capital vs. return on capital Will the market "yield" to the curve Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Working only on the things you CAN control P/E Ratios and Stocks going Down A Diatribe of Dislocations Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: That Pesky Yield Curve The Good and Bad of Volatility Connecting the Dots on FedSpeak Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: A Two-Headed Friend (or Foe) Making Sense of the U.S. Energy Sector Bitcoin Boondoggle Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Credit Market Realities Brexit Bonanza Pipelines further de-correlate Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Jobs, jobs, jobs Diversification Means Always Being Upset, and Achieving Your Financial Goals Regulation Decline Spurring Growth? Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Trade War Turmoil Earnings, or Price-to-Earnings? Capex alert - or, How Is the Economy? Links mentioned in this episode: TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Why Are The Markets in Turmoil? When does the high Debt-to-GDP ratio become a problem? Why are U.S. monetary conditions tightening? Links mentioned in this episode: TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Are rising interest rates to blame for market volatility? Unpacking what really happened in last week's meltdown Housing market weakness Links mentioned in this episode: TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: What Happened This Week? Shooting Straight on Bond Yields Key Takeaways From the Sell-Off Links mentioned in this episode: TheBahnsenGroup.com

This week, [someone], [someone else] and [another person] cover [topic]..... Topics discussed: Bitter Fight with Canada Barely Avoided Will China Play Out Like Canada? Bonds, Short Duration Bonds Links mentioned in this episode: TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Capex, the key ingredient in higher productivity China's Currency Manipulation Mitigates Tariffs Tax Reform Results in Huge On-Shore Spending Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com