The Dividend Cafe

CIO and Managing Partner - David L. Bahnsen Deputy Managing Partner - Brian Szytel Deputy CIO and COO - Deiya Pernas Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Markets followed up their monstrous week by dropping a bit to start this week, then rallying back to even mid-week, to sit somewhere between flat on the week and down ~100 points or so as I prepare to go to press. The Nasdaq, though, didn’t fare so well on the week, dropping -600 points (-4%) as of press time and warranting a distinction in this week’s Dividend Cafe on how one may want to think about their assets in the Fed regime ahead. This one week aside, and the never-ending obsession with the Federal Reserve well-baked into our societal financial fabric, there is a lot to say about a changing of the guard at the Fed, and this week’s Dividend Cafe is devoted to just that. Some things are, no doubt, changing, but other things, as you will soon see, are not changing at all. Understanding all this may be the best Christmas gift I can offer you this glorious holiday season. Slide down the chimney into this week’s Dividend Cafe … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

As I type on Friday morning well before the market will open for the day, the Dow is up ~1,200 points on the week, basically right back to where it was the day before the Omicron news and market sell-off, and the futures are pointing upwards for today as well (of course, anything can happen on that front). A week ago, I devoted the Dividend Cafe to discussing why I felt the Omicron story was a bad joke of a market mover, and we walked through a little COVID Market history. But I didn’t end on a sanguine note – I reminded you that there are vulnerabilities in the markets and that chief among them was the anti-fragilities created by excessive monetary interventions, and of course, basic valuation concerns where some euphoria may be overflowing. Today we’ll leave Omicron in the rearview mirror where it belongs and where the media has conveniently left it just 10 days or so after dramatically different assertions. But we’ll dig deeper into a couple of things that warrant our understanding – an understanding that is not the same as concern or worry. Come on into the Dividend Cafe … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Volatility The Fed Energy Omicron Variant Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

It has been a wild week in the markets, with the -900 point drop of last Friday (Thanksgiving weekend) followed by a +235 point gain Monday, a -650 point drop on Tuesday, a -460 point drop Wednesday (after being up +500 points earlier in the day), and then a +620 point increase Thursday. As I type Friday, we are down -120 points, having been up +160 points earlier, so currently (at press time) reflecting a -330 point drop on the week. Now that’s a lot of ups and downs for -330 points, don’t you think? But market ups and downs are not a problem for real investors, so why do I mention this volatility at all? Don’t people invested in the stock market (and more specifically, in the earnings streams of the great companies that make up the market) know that markets do this, and in fact, normally experience much more volatility than we have seen this year? I would hope so. I know our clients do (how could they not?). But the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe is not the mere reality of market volatility, especially when such volatility is a mere 3% or so off of market highs. I mean, really. No, the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe is those who may be unfazed by market valuations and euphoric concerns, but go hysterical over the omicron variant. In other words, we want to look at that which does not play into our thinking, and that which does, and why we think the media and so much general investor consciousness have their fears and non-fears exactly backward. So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe. It will be worth your time. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I know it is not the edition some of you look forward to most each year, devoid of such enticing topics as monetary policy and market valuations, but it is one I genuinely enjoy writing each year. Today’s Dividend Cafe captures some Thanksgiving reflections from yours truly, the author of each week’s Dividend Cafe but also the Founder and Managing Partner of this firm. I remain in a daily state of overwhelming gratitude for so, so much, that this Dividend Cafe Thanksgiving reflection is just a cake walk to write. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This week I did something a little unique. I dedicate the Dividend Cafe to the topics du jour in the space of prices, labor, production, and the Fed – basically, all the stuff everyone is talking about (and should be talking about). But rather than it seeming like a single, monolithic essay on it all, I think I have it broken up into bite-sized pieces that will be easier to understand and take in. We live in interesting times, and if this week’s Dividend Cafe helps you to understand these times better than you did before reading it, I will be a happy man. Let’s dive in and see if that happens. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market movers and shakers discussed in today's episode. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

There is a lot of anxiety in the economy right now even though the unemployment rate is incredibly low, and nearly every metric on the planet is looking good (besides elevated price indexes). We went month after month last year with people telling us (and many of them seemed to really, really enjoy saying so, mostly because they are awful human beings) that no one would ever shop again, fly again, or “demand” again. The consumption side of the economy was dead behind a brutal pandemic, they said. And we would all be wise to stop paying our office leases, buy some comfortable couch clothes, order food delivery, get an exercise bike delivered, and sit around the house binge-watching TV and just waiting for it all to end. But now the tune has changed, a lot. Not that drama and intensity – that is the exact same. It’s just the culprit is now the opposite. Now things are too hot, too much activity, too much demand, and prices are too high. That we are supposed to take advice now from the people who zealously told us the opposite 12-18 months ago is odd to me. But I digress. Pricing pressures exist in the economy and when folks are not talking about Congressional legislation or Fed policy, they are rightly focused on that. Today I want to explain why they are focused on the right thing (price inflation), but for the wrong reason, and more importantly, with the wrong solution. And yes, with an eye towards the right conclusion in your portfolio. Off we go … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Most of the attention in the markets this week was on the Fed’s announcements Wednesday – (a) That interest rates aren’t being changed any time soon, and (b) the quantitative easing program launched 20 months ago will start to be slowly eased back later this month with a goal of no additional bond purchases in roughly nine months). But very little attention is ever paid to why these policies exist, and what their impact is to the various things we investors care about. In the Dividend Cafe today, we will look at the state of monetary policy, the fiscal policy that has necessitated it (yes, those two things are married right now), and what investment lessons we can extract. Earnings season is preparing to wrap and it was a solid one. Congress is continuing to bat around legislative things that have not gone the way most people anticipated (or even close). There was huge election news this week that speak to the current political landscape. And yet through it all, the major investment story of the week may be the one least discussed. Come on in to the Dividend Cafe. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's call focuses on the latest in financial markets and the reconciliation bill. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I wrote last week about a small amount of rather large economic principles that are too often forgotten in contemporary thought, and in many cases were never learned in today’s financial advisory community. I promised a part II this week where we focused more on the application of these principles, and there is no way I would disappoint you after that powerful cliffhanger. I will point out before we dive into the Dividend Cafe that I hosted a fireside chat with Bahnsen Group economic and policy advisor, Larry Kudlow, this week. You can find that whole video replay on our website if you are so inclined. Today’s Dividend Cafe is short and sweet but does focus entirely on the promised mission – putting into practice for investors what the theories of economic wisdom look like. Off we go … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Dividend Cafe dives into some of the great economic principles one has to learn if they are to ever learn anything about economics and finds a comparison with the great investing principle of all time. I hope I will connect the dots well for you. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I loved writing the Dividend Cafe for many years with a “jump around” approach, basically covering a wide array of topics that would enter my orbit of interest each week. I made a decision late last year to start writing “single topic” and to write the entire thing in “one sitting” – basically Friday mornings – so as to make it a more coherent and cohesive read. I do like it better that way, and the feedback I have gotten suggests you do too. Today is a little old school, which happens every once in a while when no singular topic is inspiring me. There are a number of things I want to look at today, from the Value/Growth discussion to the impact of debt on the economy to so much more. I did write it all in “one sitting” (yes, Friday morning – I am a serious creature of habit), but it covers a handful of different topics that entered my world this morning from a plethora of inspirations. So off we go into the Dividend Cafe, a read that will be well worth your while. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The effort to meet face to face with leading money managers, hedge funds, macroeconomic analysts, and other such “life of the party” luminaries began in 2006. Of course, back then I was overseeing just $100 million of client assets and busily deciding if I was going to move my business at UBS to either Bear Stearns or to Morgan Stanley (yes, that was a real dilemma I once faced; I’d say the angels aided me in my decision). But I had very limited access, basically no clout, and asset management firms that were perplexed by an advisor’s desire to do such intense due diligence. “Your firm has told you these managers are good. Isn’t that good enough?” “Your firm likes our fund. Why do you need to meet the managers?” My stubborn insistence on actually creating my own process, on doing much deeper dives than the average advisor does, paid off in big ways for me. But I quickly found out that the “payoff” was not merely in how I was able to better vet products and solutions used on behalf of my clients. These meetings became a source of transformative learning for me in my career as an investment professional. This week’s Dividend Cafe is not about the trip down memory lane, unless by memory lane you mean the last five days. But Brian Szytel and Deiya Pernas have once again joined me for over a dozen face-to-face meetings with stellar investment professionals, and we do so in a time where great questions exist about the current market cycle. About geopolitics. About China. About the Fed. About risk asset valuations. About societal stability. So jump on into this week’s Dividend Cafe, and get a glimpse into what we learned this week. The results may or may not shock you, but they will not bore you. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This week’s Dividend Cafe does cover a lot of topics, but all through the prism of looking at the recent past as well as the pending future. I think you’ll find it an interesting historical journey and, even more so, a good analysis of so many investment and market realities. The market enjoyed a little roller coaster this week, and I also dive into some lessons from that. I think a lot of stuff that gets covered in Dividend Cafe may mean nothing to some readers. It all means something to me, but different readers may find different topics with varying levels of application and interest. But the one universal – the one thing I constantly pray will come through in the pages of Dividend Cafe – is the primacy of behavior. My unpacking of matters monetary policy, valuations, economic growth, profit trajectories, market history, alternative investments, and all those things – none of them – not a single one – will ever trump the underlying thing I most care about for investors: Their own behavior. Some bad things happened this week – for those who behaved badly. Nothing terrible happened this week – for those who behaved well. That is more or less a dual truism that I could repeat every single week. In the meantime, let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

As I have teed up all week, I am devoting today’s Dividend Cafe to the takeaways from this week’s SALT Conference here in New York City. The quick qualifier I will offer is that this is not going to be a boring recap of all the speakers, all the events, and all the things that you don’t care about. I did not attend the Chainsmokers concert on Tuesday night, and I did not attend the luncheon address from Paris Hilton on Wednesday, either. In the ten years I have attended the event in Las Vegas I don’t think I ever got a concert either, despite such names as Lenny Kravitz, Duran Duran, Train, One Republic, and The Killers performing. I did attend past luncheons with Dennis Miller, Magic Johnson, Coach K, and the now late Kobe Bryant. In fact, that lunch event with Kobe Bryant started a domino train that led to me doing a real estate transaction with Kobe – but I will save that story for another day. But as much as they have always done to make this a pretty fun event with a powerful complement of entertainment to the symposium of content, whether in Las Vegas or now this year in New York City, there is nothing that they can do to make me a fun person. I absolutely love the speakers, and for the last two events, I have been honored to be a speaker myself. But whether or not you care about this conference, I believe there are some takeaways from the event this year that are going to make this a meaty and substantive Dividend Cafe. So read on, and I promise I won’t let you down. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I am typing this week’s Dividend Cafe from 30,000 feet very late at night on Thursday night/Friday morning, after spending four and a half hours on the plane, on the runway, alongside 100+ other planes that were unable to take off as airspace was closed for Kamala Harris' visit to the LA area (campaigning with Gavin Newsom against the recall). My wife and I will land in Nashville in the middle of the night, and we will forget this experience soon (I hope). Anyone who travels a lot has had bad experiences. I travel 50x a year and have been through everything, but as a percentage of the times I fly, I have had it easy over the last 25 years. It’s never fun, but it happens. But twenty years ago Joleen and I were also flying together, this time departing LAX for a Tahitian honeymoon. As I mentioned the other day Joleen and I celebrated twenty years of marriage this week. On September 10, 2001, we left LAX on a redeye with a planned landing in Tahiti in the early morning. One hour before we landed the most horrific act in American history took place. It is that event that is the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe. Sure, there are some personal reflections and musings. But there really is a market lesson in all of this, and I hope you will find this to be meaty enough for your normal Dividend Cafe longings. Truth be told, the rather basic message I have to share for investors on this 20th anniversary of 9/11 is more significant in practical terms than any commentary I have ever written about monetary policy or capital allocation. I will forget the wait of today, but I will never forget 9/11. Let’s jump in. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I have been surprised by the level of interest in my treatment of the “China investment” subject in recent weeks. I kicked things off at the beginning of August with this piece, presenting the background around the tensions between U.S. investment in Chinese equity vs. Chinese fixed income. I followed up with this piece making the case that the Chinese perception of U.S. global economic intentions (primarily around our use of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency to facilitate large twin deficits) is at the heart of Chinese beliefs and agendas with their own currency. None of this has been for the purpose of mere armchair theorizing or navel-gazing. While high level takeaways in the discussion of China’s place on the global economic stage can be interesting and even provocative, our agenda is investment-specific. We may or may not have an investment thesis to act upon around Chinese financial markets. And we certainly believe the entire discussion is highly relevant for all investors in terms of how the geopolitical and monetary components play themselves out. This week I bring in some reinforcements. Louis Gave of Gavekal Research, one of the foremost economists in the world when it comes to China, Hong Kong, the Pacific Rim, and global fiscal dynamics joins me for a podcast/video discussion on this entire subject. His own views help shine a light on what the fundamental question is we must answer. I will leave you in suspense as to what that is. Once again, all free people can conclude different things about these subjects. But choosing to ignore the entire topic is not an option. History is being made right before our eyes, and our portfolios are asking us to understand it. To that end we work. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I was going to use this week’s Dividend Cafe to continue the discussion on China, one that I more exhaustively began three weeks ago, then expanded upon last week. And in fact, I have done a podcast interview with Louis Gave of Gavekal Research on this very topic, poking him and pushing him around his thesis that China’s strategic objectives in their bond market and currency are aligned with the objectives of U.S. investors. But I am going to hold this for next week, first of all, to give my communications team time to properly curate and edit that interview, but also because I believe there is a more timely message that is needed this week. By the time you are reading this, I presume Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, will have given his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. I am very purposely writing this before such a speech has been delivered or pre-speech teasers on its content have been circulated. I am, therefore, obviously writing it before I know the market reaction to the speech (stock or bond market). This is on purpose. I do not want the focus to be on what is or is not said at Jackson Hole today, or what the market does or does not do after such speech. I want Dividend Cafe to be about the extraordinary problem that we even care about so much, to begin with about this speech. Far more than anything that is said today is the fact that there even is such a focus on it to begin with. And this hype, this prioritization, this captivation in financial markets, with one man giving one speech on one day, is symbolic of where I feel so much has gone wrong. And what THAT is and what it specifically means to you is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I got a lot of feedback on the special “China edition” Dividend Cafe two weeks ago, but I promised a lot more to come on the subject, and that is what we have today. I don’t only want to walk through various perspectives on Chinese investment, but really want to make sense of what much of this means for hemispheric changes taking place in global monetary realities. There is a tremendous investment relevance to all of this, and that will be just as true for anyone who never buys a dollar of Chinese stocks, bonds, or currency. We ignore this topic to our own peril. It has been a historical week in a lot of ways, and I have written about Afghanistan and its potential impact on American domestic policy throughout the week at The DC Today. We will know more next week about the sausage-making on capitol hill. Market volatility this week was largely Fed-driven and seasonal. I don’t believe the events in Afghanistan this week will be remembered by markets for minutes, but I believe they will be remembered globally for decades. And globally, we have much to consider if we are to be smart investors. So to that end, we work … Join me in the Dividend Cafe (where as a special bonus today, some pretty hardcore facts about dividend growth superiority will be presented). DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Join David L. Bahnsen, CIO and Managing Partner of The Bahnsen Group and Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice and Associates with answers the important questions from investors. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

David, Brian, and Deiya take on the investment needs of the day for clients of The Bahnsen Group. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

We are going to do something unique this week – a deep dive into the massive country that is China. From stocks to bonds to history to currency to geopolitics, this is a big topic, and we do it this week with the sole aim of determining where there may be investment opportunity for our clients, and where there may not be. It is a topic that reveals deep passions and emotions out of many people. Our goal is to remove passion and emotion, and be fiduciary investment managers with a burden for optimizing solutions on behalf of our clients. This has serious implications when you look at Chinese stocks, or U.S. bonds. I could make this introduction a full article if I wanted to, but let me resist the temptation to keep bloviating and ask you to dive right in. I believe it is a thought-provoking and useful summary of a few investment considerations in the fastest growing economic region in human history. And we want to get this right. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm discuss the latest market happenings DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I have been thinking a lot about the stock market lately, but not for the reasons most people think about it. The most common thing people wonder about the stock market is something like this: “Is the market about to go up, or down?” I think long-time readers of the Dividend Cafe know how I feel about that question (“long-time” could mean the last two weeks in this case). I am always and forever agnostic about short-term moves in the broad stock market, not merely around anyone’s (including my own) ability to forecast such, but also around the relevance of it to one’s actual financial picture. But I hear things said about the stock market sometimes that simply concern me. I am going to address a lot of those things this week and look at some basic historical facts of the market and the environment in which we find ourselves. My goal will be to look at what does not represent a “rough” or “troubling” market environment, and what does. And in so doing, I hope we can find some takeaways about portfolio construction that speak to a present application that you will find useful. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I do something a little different in this week’s Dividend Cafe – I cover three topics, and pretty separate ones from one another at that. In my mind they are all connected – but lots of things are connected in my mind that may not make sense to others. In this case, I see them as distinct topics yet connected in the sense that they all are part of our investment worldview at The Bahnsen Group. The challenges to dividend growth in index investing, the particulars around the Energy sector in 2021, and the inconvenient truths about bitcoin – these are three separate topics, but they are all topics we have thoroughly developed beliefs about, beliefs that are an off-shoot of our foundation. And we dive into some COVID stuff that is alone worth the price of admission – chart-filled and everything! So view it as one topic with over-arching connectivity, or a three separate topic week, but either way, this is a Dividend Cafe you will be glad you read. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Hosted by David L. Bahnsen, Founder, Managing Partner, and CIO of The Bahnsen Group and Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice Communications. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Like most of you, before the financial crisis, I had never heard the term or uttered the term “quantitative easing.” This somehow becomes completely standard fare in the lexicon of finance in the last 13 years, and it is now uttered by people who I am 1,000% positive do not know what it is dozens of times per day in the media. There is nothing wrong with not understanding the obscure vocabulary of monetary economics unless of course, you are sitting around using the obscure vocabulary of monetary economics. But words have meaning, and today we’ll look at some of these words. But we will do more than define words today. After all, you deserve to get your money’s worth for what you pay for this Dividend Cafe subscription! My goal today is to walk you through the history of quantitative easing, explain what policy goal it is serving, what policy goals it is not serving, and what it means to you as an investor. By the time you are done with this read, I believe you will be a QE expert. And I assure you, as a fellow QE expert, nothing makes you more popular at parties than knowing the deep dive of quantitative easing! It’s a good thing I’m married … Okay, QE and why you should care, in this week’s Dividend Cafe! DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today I am going to do something an investment manager who writes about investing all the time ought to do more – I am going to talk about the market. Now maybe you think I do that all the time, and you’d be right. But truth be told, my investment writing is very purposely peppered with the stuff I think most matters to investors – behavioral practices, monetary policy, evergreen principles, foundational truths. The markets are to be found in and through all of it, but in Dividend Cafe, I rarely am just saying, “Hey, here’s the skinny on the stock market.” I do plenty of that day by day in the DC Today. What I want to do in the Dividend Cafe today is just look at the overall stock market – why we feel the way we do about it, why most people offering a short-term point of view are totally full of it, and how we view the present environment. I believe you will find these insights counter-cultural, and that ought to pique your interest. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I have always had a sort of unfair pet peeve with people talking about time moving either too fast or too slow. I think what I hate is the thoughtlessness of it – the sort of expected cliche when someone says, “wow, this year has flown by.” For one thing, it can’t possibly feel that way for everybody, yet it seems like everybody says it. Plus, it often times is just patently false – what people say they feel is the opposite of how I feel, and therefore I assume they must be wrong. I know, I know, but I already said it was unfair. The first half of 2021 did not “zoom by” and it also has not “dragged on” – for me. There are moments I can look back on and say “that feels like it was years ago” and there are other moments (perhaps more of these) that I do feel came and went quickly. At the end of the day, the holidays and the turn of the year were about six months ago. That much I know is true. As I do every year, I wrote a lengthy white paper between Christmas and the New Year to recap last year and to lay out our themes and perspectives for this year ahead. I prefer to wait for the next six months to do a deeper dive there, but I will check in this week on some of those perspectives. But primarily what I want to do in this week’s Dividend Cafe is give you a look at what has transpired so far this calendar year, and why. Accurately knowing what happened in financial markets is useful – and not to be taken for granted (remember, “what you know that just ain’t so” can be dangerous stuff). But I really want to explain today why things have played out how they have, and from there offer up a viewpoint on the future. Jump on into the Dividend Cafe … DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

David and Scott discuss the market matters of the day Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The weird week in the markets doesn't change what I want to be doing with each Dividend Cafe. As of press time, the market is up ~1,000 points on the week, with pre-market futures on this Friday pointing to a +100 point open. The day-to-day and week-by-week movements in the market are not the subject of the Dividend Cafe, but they are what we do each Monday through Thursday at The DC Today. This week it is tempting to dive more into the cluster of these infrastructure talks. On Thursday, there was a White House briefing that it was a done deal; on Friday, it appears to be falling apart; I can write about all this now, but I think by the time it hits your inbox, the deal may be back on, and by the time you are done reading it back off. Yet, in these "current events," there is, indeed, a "timeless principle" that warrants immediate application. A week ago, markets were experiencing nearly irrelevant levels of volatility - and the media declared it the new apocalypse as they went about drooling on themselves in a sea of inaccuracies about what the Fed did, said, and meant. A week later, markets have been rallying, and the new question is what to do about "investing at the top" (it is "new" in that the last time I heard this concern, was almost three weeks ago). So I want to dive this week into some fun history, some actionable application out of that history, and leave you with some crucial reminders about markets. These things will be useful whether the market is down a thousand or up a thousand next week. Come on into the Dividend Cafe ... DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

We had an interesting week in financial markets … The Fed did exactly what they were expected to by any reasonable person – nothing more, nothing less. They acknowledged the economy is improving, they said they were “talking about talking about” slowing down their quantitative easing. And they indicated two years from now as a time where the fed funds rate may be 50 basis points higher than it is now (may it be so). And that was it. No actions, policies, or steps. No commitments, promises, or assurances. Just loose language around some policy measures that are (a) Brutally obvious, (b) Not remotely hawkish, and (c) Not nearly enough if the conditions people are saying they are worried about are actually present. So how did people respond? After three months of people saying “inflation is here” and the “Fed must act” – what happened? Commodities got hammered, and the yield curve flattened more than it has in ages. You can’t make this stuff up. But rather than re-hash what I think the Fed will do, or what they should do, or what is going on in the inflation ad nauseum discussions, I think this week’s Dividend Cafe needs to better unpack what the real, actual, accurate under-current is to all of this. More or less, every single topic being discussed right now has as its true foundation the reality of debt. The accumulation of debt. Concerns about debt. Plans for more debt. Questions about servicing of debt. The promise of debt. The fear of debt. The cost of debt. For a four-letter word where 25% of its letters are actually silent, this is a pretty potent word in 2021 economics. And it is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe. Let’s dive in. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

With the key market insights of the season, David L. Bahnsen takes questions from the public. Hosted by Scott Gamm of Strategy Associates. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

We had a reasonably boring week in the markets (as of press time, which is after the market open on Friday, the Dow is modestly down on the week but no up or down day this week was particularly significant), but it was somewhat less boring in economic news. What I want to do today is look at the variety of economic news circulating and apply a market perspective to it. My view is very simple as to the dangers around most conventional methods of receiving that news and most conventional methods of applying that news to investment practices: The news itself is prone to sensationalism, and the application of the news is prone to over-reactionism. Put differently, the incentive structure behind how most people receive their news is flawed (and in this case, I am talking about economic news, but my statements here are true in all forms of news). And the incentive structure in how investment applications are delivered is substantially flawed, not to mention divorced from personal financial reality. I unpack all of that this week, and do a look at the current news, and provide wise investment applications for you - within our framework - where the incentives are right, the temperature is moderate, the perspective is sober, and the culture is fiduciary. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

For now (even from my spot out of the country), I do keep my weekly streak alive with the Dividend Cafe. Going back to the week of Lehman’s bankruptcy in September 2008 I have missed just one weekly commentary, and this weekly podcast really is one of the things I love most about my job. Today’s may be a little shorter than normal, and it is primarily Fed-oriented, but I am quite happy with some of the subject matter covered and hope you find it simple, readable, and useful. If it turns out that this week’s Dividend Cafe speaks to you more than normal, perhaps I will have to open an office in the spot I have recorded it so that the magic can be repeated. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

There is no shortage of investment symposiums to attend in my business. Whether it be events put on by the big firms I have worked for over the years (UBS, Morgan Stanley), or symposiums sponsored by various money managers and asset management firms, or just independent groups putting on their own show, I am quite sure I have attended over a hundred such events in the last two decades or so, and probably spoken at a couple of dozen myself. While there is always something to be learned at every event, some are surely better than others. The quality of the events, the quality of the speakers, and the candor of the speakers in the message they deliver can vary a great deal. I consider myself an incorrigible consumer of information and perspective and have been obsessed with growing my capacity for investment and economic thought since the turn of the century. These events can be a waste, or they can be utterly thought-provoking or somewhere in between. One develops an instinct over the years for which events and organizations and speakers will be worthwhile and which will not. And this brings me to the subject of this week’s Dividend Café … I have already revealed where I am going with this the last couple of weeks, so there’s no need to hide the ball. The Mauldin Strategic Investment Conference took place (virtually) in mid-May, and it most certainly represents one of the truly spectacular conferences I have ever been a part of in terms of content, speaker quality, and diversity of thought. I chose to turn my major takeaways from the conference into a Dividend Café because I basically think Dividend Café exists for me to share what is most on my mind with our clients … And I assure you these takeaways from the conference are what is taking up most of my headspace these days. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I thought I would do something really fun with this week’s Dividend Cafe, but just as soon as I typed that I realized that, like beauty, fun is in the eye of the beholder. But what “fun” thing I was going to do was write a full recap of the recent Mauldin Strategic Investor Conference that took place from May 5 through May 14, and use that recap to capture some of the profoundly important takeaways that I want to share with readers of the Dividend Cafe. However, for that to be “fun” for me I need to do it thoroughly, and this week was a hysterically insane week here in the California office between projects, portfolio work, client meetings, morning research, DC Today, and all the normal things. I also got inspired by another few things this morning, and so I am going to call an audible and use next week’s Dividend Cafe as my Mauldin SIC recap, and use this week’s for a whole different kind of fun. Now, I kind of lied. I said that I was saving my Mauldin SIC recap for next week (and I am). But the truth is that some of the things I get into this week are itches that were somewhat scratched at the conference. So consider this a tease into next week, and I promise I will make it all worthwhile next week. I disagree with a lot of what I heard at the conference. I agreed with a lot more. Anyone who agrees with everything that everyone says is a compass-less fool. But that conference did for me what I earnestly want the Dividend Cafe to do for you every single week – foster thought and consideration. The conclusions that come out of that? Well, to that end we work. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm discuss the market happenings of the day. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Anyone who knows me personally knows that I loathe melodrama. And hopefully, anyone who has followed my writing for any period of time, especially my financial writing, knows that I hate click-bait, hype, exaggeration, dramatic hyperbole, shock and awe, and other such media-friendly tactics designed to scare, provoke, or just plain manipulate us. I believe almost every day I am writing The DC Today is a boring day in the grand scheme of things. Markets may be up or down a lot on a given day, but as a goals-based investment advisor, with a few exceptions, those day-to-day movements in markets are almost entirely irrelevant. Some days have legitimate policy news, and every day has some aspect of economic information or perspective (Fed, housing, COVID, energy, etc.) that I genuinely love sharing. But it would take a lot for one of my daily investment pieces to warrant some kind of a, “not this is a day that changed history!” This week saw the highest levels of market volatility we have seen all year. It was primarily in high tech and small-cap and more growthy/saucy parts of the market, but the Dow had a couple of big down days, Japan got whacked, and it was the kind of day where financial TV media ratings are up 40% or so from the norm. And I am of the belief that this was a big, profound, and potentially impactful and historic week. At least, I think it will prove to be. I just don’t think the bigness of this week had anything to do with market volatility. I don’t think it had anything to do with tech, with the Nasdaq, with Japan, with the CPI number, with bond yields, or anything else in that vein. So what do I mean? Why am I being “dramatic”? And what does it mean for you as an investor? Jump on into the Dividend Cafe … (and no, this is not melodrama or clickbait; I am just out of room in my intro letter) … =) Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

One of the questions I get asked the most is, “what scares you right now?” Clients ask it every now and then, or some version of it, but I also get asked in various TV interviews that ever-so-compelling question, “what keeps you up at night?” There is one particular problem with the question I want to address in this week’s Dividend Cafe, and I want to provide a really thorough answer to it. What is the problem with the question, “what is keeping you up at night?” The problem is that the real question the person asking means to ask is, “do you think the market could go down?” It’s a dishonest question, but probably not intentionally so. It’s a couched way of basically asking something reasonably worthless and unhelpful. Why is it worthless and unhelpful? Because the market can always go down, and anyone asking the question knows it, or anyone invested in the market ought to know it. But, but, but you say – aren’t there times where it is extra super-duper extra likely to go down? And wouldn’t that have you worried? The answer to those two questions is, “of course not, other than in hindsight,” and “not at all.” But, but, but, I say – if one ever just asked the question, “are there macroeconomic conditions that bother you, that you really dislike, that even though they don’t foolishly lead you into market timing or false prophesy or clickbait dis-ingenuity, you really are troubled by?” Well, that question I can answer, and I will … DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Latest market updates and news from David L. Bahnsen of The Bahnsen Group DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tell me what you think about these two statements: (1) Markets are dynamic, ever-changing forces. They are never predictable, their outcomes are never assured, the inputs are constantly adjusting with the ebbs and flows of different circumstances and facts that have to be monitored, studied, and adjusted as needed. (2) There is nothing new under the sun. I believe these two statements are both true, and I believe that the apparent contradiction between the two actually represents one of the great challenges and obligations for professional investment managers. And that is the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe. We live in interesting times. We live in unpredictable times. And we live in times that offer a milieu of circumstances which combine the novel with the redundant. And for all of the uncertainty about the future and the debate in the present, there does exist a past that can, at a bare minimum, help inform us in the present and in our preparations for the future. The “new” must be informed by the “old.” And that is what we are going to discuss in the Dividend Cafe today. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This week’s Dividend Cafe took a funny twist over the last 24 hours. First, I ended up flying back to California from New York late Thursday night for a Friday matter that came up (I was supposed to fly to California on Sunday). This substantially altered my reading and writing plans for this commentary, along with work issues. On Thursday the market had a little reaction to the shocking – shocking – news that the Biden administration was looking to raise capital gain taxes on high-income brackets. I say “shocking” because it had been, well, you know, on their campaign website all of last year, and discussed and mentioned 37 times since his inauguration. And because nothing in the announcement came with Bernie Sanders replacing Joe Manchin in West Virginia or Elizabeth Warren replacing Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona. And by the way, as of press time Friday morning, the market is down a whopping ~150 points on the week – a rounding error – after a few up days and down days mostly offset each other this week. Still, though, the cap gain tax issue does matter, so I wanted to address it this week along with a few other things that seem to be a source of worry right now for many investors. But you can’t spell “investor” without “t” and I found that out the hard way when I arrived at JFK’s Admirals Club yesterday and the “t” button on my keyboard was not working. I had a DC Today to finish, and ambitious plans for 5+ hours of work on a cross-country flight. Well, I did all I could, but just so you know, a lot of words in the English language have “t” in them – a lot. And doing a “Ctrl-C” and “Ctrl-V” for all your T’s is enough to make someone want to ask for the bartender (I don’t drink, so had to settle for my typing productivity being, well, diminished). But the use of an iPad Bluetooth keyboard, a munted attempt with the munted keyboard, my desktop at my California office, and a brand new Surface Pro laptop I had overnight shipped the second I discovered the trouble have all coalesced together to make this Dividend Cafe possible. And to think my dad wrote 500-page books on a typewriter!!! Jump on into the Dividend Cafe! DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay of our National video call, April 19, 2021, covering the market performance, energy, and potential changes to the tax code. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com