Telltales

NVIDIA has evolved from a near-bankrupt GPU maker into the most dominant force in computing infrastructure. This week we unpack the "process power" framework that explains why, and ask whether Eli Lilly can replicate the same playbook in pharma.[00:00] Exhibit C: Oil Markets & Iran CeasefireIf the ceasefire holds, global production declines ~1M bbl/day. Demand stays flat at 103M. Average oil price for the rest of 2026 likely lands around $80. Higher oil prices paradoxically push nat gas lower via increased Permian associated gas production.[03:00] Exhibit B: Natural Gas OutlookHenry Hub at $2.86 prompt with $3.70 for 2027. Permian associated gas growing from 23 to 25 Bcf/d this year. Waha hub negative since January. Hoping gas holds $3.50-$4.00 range but oversupply risk persists.[04:23] Exhibit A: Fiscal & Defense SpendingWar supplemental request dropped from $200B to $80B. Defense budget proposal at $1.5T vs. current ~$900B run rate. Tariff revenue only ~$300B of $5.5T total federal revenue. Deficit must decline as a percentage of GNP — no other path.[08:27] Modern Warfare & Cost ReductionAutonomous drone-based interceptors replacing $10M missiles. Future defense procurement shifts from stockpile building to productive capacity and supply chain resilience. Iran's drone supply to Russia now disrupted.[10:00] NVIDIA Deep Dive: Process PowerHamilton Helmer's "Seven Powers" framework applied to NVIDIA. The real moat isn't CUDA's network effect — it's the 9-month iteration cadence established in 1997 when Jensen acquired a hardware emulator on the brink of bankruptcy. That process advantage compounded over a decade when nobody was watching.[14:00] NVIDIA's Vertical IntegrationFrom DGX-1 with Intel Xeon CPUs to today's full-stack offering: NVIDIA GPUs, NVIDIA CPUs, Mellanox networking (acquired 2019), and Groq LPUs. They sell complete data center aisles, capturing margin that Intel shared with Dell and Broadcom.[16:00] Intel's Cautionary TaleIntel voluntarily gave up Moore's Law process leadership because next-gen economics didn't satisfy shareholders. Now at $50B revenue with zero free cash flow. NVIDIA's position is stronger than Intel's ever was.[19:00] NVIDIA's Next FrontiersJetsons robotics chips (a decade in development), CUDA Q2Q quantum computing simulators. NVIDIA has taken the CUDA playbook wide across verticals — payoffs expected over the next few decades.[20:00] Taiwan Semiconductor DependencyTSMC sales up 30% monthly. Samsung's operating profit tripled. Elon bringing Intel into Tesla's Terra Fab project with Samsung. TSMC in monopoly position, deliberately under-building capacity.[21:45] AI Compute Demand: Anthropic & xAIAnthropic's token production showing exponential growth since AI agents launched. New model cost ~$10B to train — likely first fully trained on Blackwells. xAI planning models up to 10 trillion parameters.[23:22] Pharma Tariffs: 100% on Active IngredientsTargets China supply chain dependence. Extensive exemptions for orphan drugs, cancer therapies. 16 pharma companies have MFN agreements. 20% reduced rate for onshoring. Market reaction muted — this is a carrot, not a stick.[25:21] Eli Lilly: Dominant but ExpensiveRevenue up 40% YoY, FCF up 80%. Trading at ~50x FCF — more expensive than NVIDIA's 40x. Oral GLP-1 pill is a competitive advantage, but barriers to entry are lower than semiconductors. Process power in biotech is rare and harder to sustain.Subscribe to the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and download this week's data package covering 80+ companies across energy, tech, and healthcare.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This week’s Telltales Podcast moves from geopolitics to technology to healthcare, connecting the latest market headlines back to cash flow, capital allocation, and competitive advantage. Mike, Jason, and Hunt discuss how energy risk, AI spending, and pharma dealmaking could shape investors’ thinking in the months ahead.[00:00] Opening and memo overviewMike opens the episode by framing the discussion around energy, technology, and healthcare, with references to the Cash Flow Memo and the weekly exhibits on government finances, natural gas, and oil.[00:20] Iran, oil risk, and Exhibit CHunt lays out his current view on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and why geopolitical risk may keep oil prices supported rather than sending them back toward much lower levels.[03:58] Exhibit A and the macro backdropThe conversation shifts briefly to the dollar, defense spending, and how fiscal developments could affect the broader economic picture.[05:03] Ceasefire timing and what to watch nextMike and Jason discuss the significance of the April 6 date, the uncertainty around negotiations, and how public reporting can differ sharply from realities on the ground.[06:32] Helium shortages and second-order inflation effectsThe hosts revisit helium after recent supply disruptions, highlighting how conflict can ripple far beyond oil into industrial gases and other inflation-sensitive inputs.[10:13] Middle East realignment and the long-term oil outlookJason and Hunt explore the bigger strategic picture, including regional cooperation, Saudi-Israel normalization, and what a more stable or less stable Middle East could mean for energy markets.[18:38] Artemis II, NASA contractors, and the economics of launchThe episode turns to space, where the hosts compare legacy aerospace contractors with SpaceX and debate what the future of launch economics and government contracts might look like.[21:12] Apple at 50: low capex, AI, and the future of SiriApple’s anniversary sparks a deeper debate on whether the company is prudently waiting on AI or risking a slow erosion of its moat by underinvesting in next-generation infrastructure and products.[24:00] The Intel comparison and platform riskMike argues that Apple could face an Intel-like problem if financial discipline overtakes product ambition, especially as outside AI providers gain leverage over the user experience.[28:00] OpenAI, suppliers, and bargaining powerThe hosts examine how AI could reshape platform economics, with Apple potentially becoming more dependent on third-party model providers and losing some of its traditional control.[30:15] Healthcare M&A and Eli Lilly’s latest pushJason closes with healthcare news, including fresh pharma dealmaking and Eli Lilly’s move into an oral weight-loss treatment, with implications for manufacturing, pricing, and competition.[31:24] Why Lilly looks so strongThe team discusses why Lilly continues to stand out, from product execution to strategic positioning, and tees up a deeper dive for a future episode.Thanks for listening to Telltales. Subscribe for weekly discussions on investing, cash flow, and company analysis, and check out the Cash Flow Memo for the financial exhibits and company updates that accompany each episode.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of Telltales, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence unpack the latest Cash Flow Memo across energy, technology, and healthcare. The conversation ranges from Iran-driven oil risk and natural gas pricing to AI infrastructure demand, semiconductor inputs, and the long-term investment case for cancer therapies.[00:00] Energy outlook after the Iran conflict Hunt opens with Exhibit C, explaining why he now sees oil supply tightening slightly versus prior expectations and why a return to something closer to normal in the straits could still leave a durable geopolitical risk premium in crude.[03:24] Why oil may stay higher for longer The team discusses why WTI may average closer to $80 in 2026-2028 rather than revisiting $60, with uncertainty around Iran, damaged infrastructure, and future military escalation all influencing pricing.[05:21] Exhibit A and the US fiscal picture Hunt argues the US remains relatively insulated on national accounts because it produces as much oil as it uses and more gas than it consumes, while still expecting the federal deficit trend to improve gradually.[08:24] Energy equities and capital discipline The discussion turns to oil and gas names in the memo, with the view that upstream oil producers are still discounting a more conservative price deck and are unlikely to overspend even if oil averages above current expectations.[10:09] Natural gas headwinds and LNG timing Hunt explains why higher oil production in the Permian can pressure gas prices through associated gas output, and why new LNG capacity should help eventually but may take longer to meaningfully change the price outlook.[12:11] Helium, fertilizers, and second-order inflation effects Mike and Jason highlight other commodities affected by the conflict, including helium and fertilizers, and explain why higher input costs could ripple into semiconductors, MRI operations, and broader inflation-sensitive markets.[13:15] Big Tech resilience and AI inference demand The hosts shift to technology, arguing that the largest platform companies remain well positioned as inference demand accelerates and hyperscalers continue building the compute capacity needed to support AI applications.[15:10] The falling cost curve of AI Mike frames technology as fundamentally deflationary and points to the sharp drop in token costs as evidence that innovation is still rapidly compressing compute economics despite rising capital intensity.[16:02] Google’s Turbo Quant and edge AI potential Jason explains Google’s new model architecture and why a major reduction in memory requirements could make local AI more practical, expand context windows, and move models closer to persistent memory-like functionality.[18:15] Apple, CPUs, and the agent economy The conversation explores why Mac Mini demand may be stronger than expected and how AI agents are increasing the need for traditional CPU compute alongside GPUs.[19:52] ARM, Intel, AMD, and the data center transition Mike and Jason discuss the shift away from x86, rising custom silicon adoption by hyperscalers, and why ARM-based architectures appear to be gaining ground in modern AI infrastructure.[20:48] NVIDIA’s expanding role in the stack The team explains how NVIDIA has evolved from a GPU story into a full data center systems story, with process speed and integrated infrastructure now central to its ability to defend margins.[23:02] AI meets healthcare in personalized cancer treatment Jason shares a story about a custom mRNA cancer vaccine for a dog, using it as an early proof point for how AI-assisted analysis could accelerate more personalized approaches to oncology.[24:23] Vertex and Harrow updates The healthcare segment covers encouraging Vertex phase 3 kidney disease data and a revealing reimbursement gap at Harrow, where a low direct-to-patient price contrasts sharply with insurance billing levels.[26:11] BioNTech after its founders The hosts debate BioNTech’s future, concluding that the company has enough late-stage assets and commercialization work ahead of it to remain viable even as the founders step back from day-to-day operating focus.[29:50] Why cancer vaccines remain one of the biggest themes Moderna and BioNTech are highlighted as current leaders in cancer vaccines, while Jason argues the future of cancer care will likely be shaped by a combination of new therapies, better monitoring, and individualized immune-based treatment.[31:49] The search for the next major investing themes The episode closes with a broader challenge: if AI and cancer therapies are already on the list of transformational trends, what are the other breakthroughs investors should be watching over the next three to four years?If you enjoy this style of investing discussion, subscribe to Telltales and download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us. For more weekly analysis on energy, technology, healthcare, and cashflow-driven investing, stay tuned for the next episode.This podcast and the

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, Hunt, Mike, and Jason break down the most consequential disruption to global energy markets in decades — the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — and what it means for oil prices, capital markets, and portfolio positioning. The conversation then pivots to AI agents, harness engineering, and the structural shift in how companies will operate.[00:00] **Strait of Hormuz Closure and Oil Market Impact**Hunt walks through the mechanics of losing ~20 million barrels of daily transit through Hormuz, the Israeli strike on Iran’s Pars gas facility, and Iran’s threatened retaliation against Saudi, UAE, and Qatari infrastructure. Near-month crude has moved from $60 pre-conflict to $100, with October $120 calls trading at $2.[03:16] **Scenarios for Oil Price Resolution**Could a ceasefire or Iranian-controlled transit regime bring prices back toward $80? Hunt outlines the pipeline alternatives — Red Sea, Fujairah, Turkey — and what a partial normalization by Q4 might look like. The consensus: $60 oil is gone for the foreseeable future.[06:16] **Why This Wasn’t a War of Choice**Jason and Hunt argue the Iran conflict was inevitable given the nuclear trajectory, with Iran’s stated objectives making a deal structurally impossible. The military campaign has been more decisive than expected, but drone suppression remains the key challenge.[09:50] **Exhibit B: Natural Gas Supply Problem**Permian associated gas continues to flood the market at 24 Bcf/day, with hub prices negative. New pipeline capacity (up to 5 Bcf/day) is coming but won’t arrive until late 2026. Higher oil activity will only worsen the gas oversupply.[11:07] **Exhibit A: US Government Fiscal Outlook**Healthcare spending is the main lever. Medicare and Medicaid may flatten with Trump administration changes. The US is improving directionally versus China, Japan, and Europe. The Fed holds rates steady.[14:00] **Mag Seven Resilience and AI CapEx Justification**Despite geopolitical turmoil, the Mag Seven remain remarkably steady at 40% of the index. Hunt, Mike, and Jason argue the AI infrastructure buildout is justified — each new chip generation is ~10x more efficient, breaking the typical industrial capacity cycle.[17:01] **Capital Returns and Why This Cycle Is Different**Mike draws on Edward Chancellor’s Capital Returns framework: unlike concrete plants, new GPU capacity is 90% more efficient than what it replaces. Token consumption is scaling with problem complexity, and Jensen Huang’s GTC keynote framed token budgets as the new employee benefit.[19:42] **AI Impact on Healthcare and Pharma R&D**Jason sees pharma companies testing more molecules rather than cutting headcount. The biggest efficiency gain: regulatory filing assembly for FDA submissions. Net effect is more drugs in the pipeline, which is positive for patients.[23:09] **Agents: From Open Claw to 2 Billion Users**The team debates agent adoption. Jason predicts every iPhone becomes an agent within a year — the orchestration runs on-device while inference runs in the cloud. Apple’s Siri delays leave the door open for Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google.[25:24] **Harness Engineering: The Next Software Layer**Mike defines the emerging discipline: writing traditional software that feeds the right context to LLMs at the right time. From Cursor to Claude Code to Open Claw, the pattern is vertical tools designed for specific jobs. Companies will reorganize around people + AI with tools and skills.[29:39] **Diagnostics, GLP-1s, and Bending the Healthcare Cost Curve**The path to lower healthcare costs runs through cheaper diagnostics (blood draws, genomics, AI symptom analysis) gating access to specialists, plus long-term benefits from GLP-1 adoption reducing total system burden.Download the full Cash Flow Memo with updated financials for ~80 companies at telltales.us. New episodes every Wednesday.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack

In this episode of Telltales, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence analyze global energy markets, the cash flow profiles of the world’s largest technology companies, and key developments in biotech and healthcare investing.[00:00] IntroductionMike introduces the episode and the Cash Flow Memo, which tracks financials across major companies and macro exhibits covering U.S. government finances, oil, and natural gas.[00:29] Oil Markets and Iran TensionsHunt explains how geopolitical tensions involving Iran and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are affecting oil prices and global supply dynamics.[03:00] Natural Gas, LNG, and Permian SupplyThe hosts discuss LNG disruptions from Qatar, rising global gas prices, and the persistent oversupply of U.S. natural gas driven by Permian Basin associated gas.[05:41] U.S. Government FinancesA look at the U.S. fiscal picture, including deficit trends, tariff revenue, and the continued role of the dollar as a global reserve currency.[07:04] Mega-Cap Tech FinancialsApple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla are compared through the lens of revenue, EBITDA, capital spending, and free cash flow.[11:44] Amazon vs WalmartThe panel breaks down Amazon as two businesses—retail and cloud—and compares its economics with Walmart’s massive retail operation.[16:21] Nvidia’s Cash Flow MachineNvidia’s extraordinary margins and free cash flow generation are highlighted, along with discussion of the sustainability of AI-driven demand.[18:00] Moats in the AI EraThe hosts debate competitive advantages among major tech companies, including risks facing Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Nvidia as AI reshapes the industry.[20:33] Biotech Leadership ChangesDiscussion turns to BioNTech and Moderna, including founder departures and how early-stage research cultures influence biotech companies.[24:00] Pharma R&D and Capital AllocationThe hosts analyze R&D spending at companies like Pfizer and Vertex, focusing on how capital allocation affects long-term drug pipelines.[25:53] Harrow’s OutlookThe team reviews Harrow’s recent results and guidance, explaining why the long-term thesis remains intact despite short-term market reactions.[27:38] AI PredictionsEach host offers predictions about near-term developments in artificial intelligence, including the possibility of new model breakthroughs and Microsoft’s next Copilot evolution.[31:50] Closing RemarksThe episode concludes with final thoughts and a preview of next week’s discussion.If you enjoy deep dives into company cash flows and long-term investing, subscribe to Telltales and download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team moves from energy geopolitics to mega-cap tech cash flows and healthcare catalysts—through the lens of what actually endures: free cash flow, incentives, and execution.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo setupMike frames the episode’s focus across energy, technology, and healthcare—and points listeners to the memo and exhibits.[00:29] Exhibit C: Oil supply, Iran risk, and what changes (or doesn’t)Hunt walks through how recent Middle East tensions can shift the crude supply outlook, while noting limited physical damage so far.[02:49] Exhibit B: Natural gas, LNG dynamics, and the forward curveThe conversation pivots to natural gas fundamentals and how supply/demand expectations translate into pricing and planning.[05:33] US fiscal picture: deficits, the dollar, and gold signalsThe group discusses US Treasury math, what’s improving (and what isn’t), and how markets interpret the trajectory via gold and rates.[09:27] Index concentration and the “Magnificent Seven” stability debateHunt challenges the idea that concentration equals fragility, arguing the biggest names are proving steadier than expected.[11:49] Tesla: robotaxis, humanoid robots, and valuation as a long-dated optionThey debate whether autonomy and robotics justify Tesla’s premium—and how production choices signal a strategic pivot.[14:28] Enterprise software in an AI world: why Snowflake still mattersSnowflake’s role is framed as “memory” and infrastructure for AI systems, not just another software line item competing with new tools.[18:30] Nvidia vs the field: scale, cash flow, and the next bottleneckThe team breaks down Nvidia’s dominance versus challengers and explores where constraints may emerge—especially around data center buildout and permitting.[22:25] Harrow: guidance optics, management credibility, and Vivi/Vevye tailwindsA sharp selloff meets a fundamentals discussion: conservative guidance, product momentum, and a meaningful catalyst through CVS’s PBM channel.[25:18] FDA acceleration: priority review vouchers and faster approvalsJason covers a rapid approval example and what it implies about timelines, costs, and the evolving regulatory playbook.[26:16] Clinical trials shift: fewer Phase 3 requirements and higher ROI on R&DThey discuss how moving from “two Phase 3 trials” toward “one + longer follow-up” can change economics for smaller biotechs and drug development broadly.[28:16] Vertex as a healthcare execution benchmarkIn a “Nvidia of healthcare” style prompt, the group highlights Vertex as best-in-class at in-house R&D returns and sustained pipeline strength.[29:38] Closing thoughtsA wrap on how US capital markets absorb macro shocks—and why business quality ultimately anchors long-term outcomes.If you found this helpful, grab the Cash Flow Memo, drop a comment with the company you want covered next, and subscribe for weekly episodes on cash flow-first investing.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Is genetic sequencing the future of healthcare? In this Top Mark Capital Fellow Webinar, Montana Joy breaks down how next-generation sequencing is transforming oncology, infectious disease, prenatal testing, and personalized medicine—and why now may be the inflection point.[00:00] Introduction: The Shift Toward Molecular MedicineMike Nicoletti introduces the webinar and frames the central theme: the move from symptom-based care to genetically informed, personalized treatment strategies.[02:00] The Top Mark Fellowship & Research ContextAn inside look at the fellowship program and how a year of structured research led to this deep dive into genetic sequencing and its healthcare implications.[04:38] What Is Genetic Sequencing?Montana explains DNA sequencing basics, genetic variants, and how changes at the molecular level can alter protein production and clinical outcomes.[06:41] Why Sequencing Matters: Cost, Survival, and Early DetectionHow falling sequencing costs and earlier diagnosis can improve survival rates, reduce long-term healthcare costs, and enable preventative medicine.[09:09] Prenatal Genetic Testing: The First Commercial BreakthroughHow non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) brought sequencing into mainstream clinical use and paved the way for broader adoption.[11:34] Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) Testing in OncologyHow cell-free tumor DNA enables continuous molecular monitoring, earlier relapse detection, and more precise post-treatment decisions.[15:22] RNA Vaccines and Precision ImmunotherapyFrom COVID-19 to personalized cancer vaccines, sequencing enables rapid vaccine design and adaptive immune targeting.[18:00] The Sequencing Landscape: Illumina, PacBio, Oxford Nanopore & MoreA breakdown of first-, second-, and third-generation sequencers, key competitive factors (accuracy, speed, cost, volume), and major industry players.[21:43] AI, Machine Learning & the Future of DiagnosticsHow genetic data combined with AI could accelerate diagnostic accuracy and expand personalized oncology and rare disease treatment.[24:00] Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED) and Market ExpansionDiscussion of emerging MCED tests, current clinical limitations, and the long-term potential for population-wide cancer screening.[28:36] Beyond Oncology: Infectious Disease & Sickle Cell ApplicationsSequencing applications in infectious disease, genetic disorders, and microbiome-driven treatments.[29:25] FDA Pathways & Personalized RNA TherapiesHow regulators are adapting approval frameworks for individualized, process-driven therapies like personalized cancer vaccines.[33:00] Pharmacogenomics & Universal Sequencing by 2050?A forward-looking discussion: Will everyone be sequenced once in their lifetime? What becomes actionable at $100–$300 per genome?[35:16] Who Wins? Installed Base, Software, and the “Picks & Shovels”Evaluating competitive moats in sequencing—hardware, reagents, installed systems, and the growing importance of software analytics.[40:09] Diagnostic-Driven Healthcare SystemsWhy rising healthcare costs and improving diagnostic accuracy may shift care from provider-driven to diagnostics-first models.Genetic sequencing is no longer just a research tool—it’s becoming foundational to modern healthcare. If you’re interested in the intersection of biotechnology, oncology, and long-term investing, this is a trend worth watching closely.Subscribe for more Top Mark Capital webinars and research discussions exploring the future of healthcare and investing.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team digs into the cash flow realities behind energy markets, AI-driven software disruption, and fast-moving healthcare headlines. Plus, they connect the dots between government finances, rates, and the incentives shaping corporate behavior.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo The crew tees up a fast tour through energy, technology, and healthcare using this week’s memo and exhibits.[00:19] Disclaimer Investing discussion for informational purposes only—do your own work.[00:35] Oil demand growth slows, supply stays strong Why global demand growth looks softer (China maturity, EV adoption) and what that implies for WTI absent geopolitical risk.[02:40] Natural gas: “too much production” and power demand flat The group discusses why gas demand in power isn’t accelerating and how policy/regulatory dynamics may be affecting coal retirements.[03:39] Exhibit A: Tariffs, revenues, and the bond market A look at shifting U.S. revenue lines, tariff uncertainty/refunds, and why the 10-year yield matters for housing affordability.[07:06] SaaS disruption: opportunity or value trap? Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake sell off as investors debate “build vs buy” software in an AI world—and what that means for durable cash flow.[10:00] Switching costs, SLAs, and the real value of software vendors Why uptime, support, and accountability still matter—and why the endpoint may be “more software,” not less.[13:40] Meta’s AMD GPU deal and the Taiwan Semi choke point A breakdown of buyer power in AI chips, why capacity allocation matters, and how warrant structures reshape incentives.[17:16] Streaming and platforms: Disney, Netflix, Meta, Spotify Comparing balance sheets, valuation moves, and how AI could (or won’t) improve these business models.[21:18] Healthcare: GLP-1 price war dynamics What happens when insurance isn’t the payer, Novo vs Lilly pricing pressure, and why safety may be the more important “race” than speed of weight loss.[22:33] UnitedHealth, PBMs, and regulatory whack-a-mole The team discusses PBM vulnerability, potential margin shifts, and why fraud enforcement/data transparency could change incentives.[25:03] Longevity: Yamanaka factors and first-in-human study A look at Life Biosciences, organ “reprogramming” research, and how AI may accelerate earlier-stage discovery.[26:07] Hims & Hers vs Novo Nordisk: compounding, patents, and enforcement How shortages opened the door, where the envelope got pushed too far, and why IP protection underpins pharma innovation.[28:28] Cancer vaccines: additive, not replacing standard of care Why the highest-probability outcome is vaccines reducing recurrence post-treatment—and what that means for future cost and care intensity.[31:05] Grail’s early cancer detection study: promising theory, tough economics The study design trade-offs, funding constraints, and whether improved technology could revive the approach.[33:16] Wrap-up The crew signs off and previews next week—download the Cash Flow Memo and follow along with the exhibits for deeper context.If you found this helpful, like, subscribe, and share the episode—and grab the Cash Flow Memo so you can track the numbers alongside the discussion.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt move from energy market crosscurrents into an AI-driven “SaaSpocalypse,” then close with high-stakes healthcare updates—from Lilly’s trillion-dollar run to PBM reform and early cancer detection.[00:19] DisclaimerImportant investing and risk disclosure before the discussion begins.[00:29] Exhibit C: Oil, Iran, and Geopolitical RiskCrude holds in the mid-$60s as tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz keep markets on edge. The team weighs U.S. posture, escalation scenarios, and what could force a near-term resolution.[03:00] Exhibit B: Natural Gas Backwardation and Permian PainNatural gas pricing looks oddly soft despite a strong winter for demand, while Waha trades negative through cold weather. The group discusses upcoming pipeline capacity and what it could mean for Henry Hub and Gulf Coast pricing.[04:36] Exhibit A: U.S. Finances, Defense Spending, and the FedA reality check on deficits, interest costs, and the limits of materially higher defense budgets. Hunt also discusses the Fed balance sheet, QT, and how lower short rates may not translate cleanly to long-bond relief.[08:35] SaaSpocalypse: How AI Disrupts Software and Who WinsThe cost of writing code collapses, UI becomes less central, and the market rethinks what a software company actually is. They debate moats, distribution, sales vs. engineering, and why “when AI works, we just call it software.”[12:21] Microsoft Office, File Formats, and Network EffectsIs the Office moat about features—or about interoperability and trust? Jason argues AI could dissolve file-format lock-in via on-the-fly conversion, while Mike counters that pros still need power tools and workflows.[17:11] Big Tech Capex and AI Inference DemandThey connect massive data center spend (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle) to rising inference usage rather than just training. The team frames this as both opportunity and disruption risk for incumbent SaaS.[21:26] Is Tesla Overvalued? Robotaxis, Regulation, and RealityA hands-on Full Self-Driving trip shapes Jason’s view that the technology is “extremely close,” shifting the bottleneck to regulation. They discuss what has to happen for robotaxi economics to justify Tesla’s valuation.[24:18] Is Eli Lilly Overvalued? Weight Loss, Alzheimer’s, and Direct-to-ConsumerLilly’s trillion-dollar milestone meets a cash-flow and durability debate: long patent lives, strong execution, and a surprisingly large share of prescriptions flowing through a direct-pay platform.[26:00] PBMs in the CrosshairsA bipartisan proposal targets vertically integrated PBM structures, with the group arguing that PBMs’ share of drug economics is distorting incentives. They explain why breaking up the model could shift profit pools back toward drugmakers and patients.[27:29] Multi-Cancer Early Detection: Medicare Reimbursement PathA policy update on potential Medicare reimbursement starting in 2028 for blood-based early cancer detection tests. Jason explains the “needle in a haystack” science and why earlier detection could improve outcomes and lower total costs.[28:29] Vertex: Non-Opioid Pain and CF Competitive LandscapeThey review Vertex’s pain medicine data as a meaningful step toward reducing opioid use in acute settings. The conversation also touches CF innovation and why some competing mRNA approaches have recently stalled.[31:43] Harrow: CVS Formulary Coverage and Early SignalsHarrow lands CVS PBM formulary coverage and becomes the top prescribed dry-eye therapy within CVS workflows. Early prescription signals look promising, though the team notes data remains incomplete.[32:41] Lantheus: Management Reset and Thesis WatchA CEO change brings back leadership from the original investment era. They discuss pricing missteps, why the thesis may still hold, and what they’re watching next.[33:29] BioNTech vs Moderna: Cash Discipline and Vaccine EconomicsBioNTech’s cash preservation gets praise while Moderna navigates FDA review dynamics for its flu vaccine. A candid comment about U.S.-centric profitability highlights how much the U.S. subsidizes life-science innovation.Thanks for listening—download the latest Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and subscribe for next week’s continued discussion on AI disruption, energy, and healthcare.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should b

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team runs through the latest Cash Flow Memo and the three exhibits—U.S. government finances, natural gas, and oil—then closes with the massive Big Tech CapEx wave and what it means for chips, data centers, and geopolitics.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo overview Quick setup on the episode’s focus across energy, technology, and healthcare—and how to use the weekly memo alongside the exhibits.[00:19] Disclaimer Important investing and information-use disclaimer before the discussion begins.[00:35] Exhibit C: Oil supply/demand and the Iran “risk premium” Oil prices look meaningfully higher due to potential military action risk, with negotiations likely stretched out—keeping volatility elevated even if the base case is “status quo.”[02:00] Why WTI in the low-60s may persist The group discusses slower global demand growth (especially China) and how surplus capacity could take longer to work off, supporting a range-bound outlook despite the market’s inherent volatility.[03:08] Exhibit B: Natural gas—cold winter, but price disappointment Even with extreme weather, the gas strip remains below the hoped-for $4 level; the conversation centers on why demand isn’t the problem, and why supply growth keeps winning.[05:12] Gas-to-power, coal, and LNG policy shifts Coal plant dynamics, evolving renewable incentives, and LNG export growth (plus new authorizations) reshape the demand mix—while associated gas from the Permian continues to pressure the market.[08:31] Exhibit A: U.S. government cash flow and the rate/issuance puzzle The team discusses balance sheet drawdown ambitions, the risk of stressing long rates, and why Treasury might lean toward shorter maturities even as deficits remain large.[11:06] Page 17: FedEx, UPS, Nike, Costco, Lennar A quick pass on how China and global trade show up differently across logistics, sourcing-heavy consumer brands, retail supply chains, and homebuilding inputs.[12:52] Pages 5–6: Cable vs Telco competition heats up Charter/Comcast and AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile are less China-exposed today, but face intensifying competition as cable pushes wireless and telcos push fiber and fixed wireless.[14:45] A wild card: SpaceX as a future “telco page” peer The team flags how Starlink could change the competitive landscape—especially for last-mile connectivity.[15:06] Page 16: Restaurants, beverages, and travel—how “international” matters McDonald’s, Starbucks, Chipotle, Celsius, and Hilton spark a discussion on global exposure, brand localization risk, and the long runway (or limits) for beverage expansion abroad.[16:56] Page 7: Payments—MasterCard, Visa, PayPal Why global card networks can be insulated from China in one sense (local payment ecosystems) while still benefiting from worldwide commerce growth.[17:36] Page 15: Pharma and biotech supply chains The group highlights China’s role in inputs and manufacturing, the incentives to reshore, and why smaller biotechs may keep outsourcing due to cost and cash constraints.[20:21] Page 8 + beyond: Retail sourcing and U.S. industrial “moats” Walmart/Target and home improvement retailers feel China most through goods sourcing, while industrial leaders (and aerospace suppliers) raise questions about competition, approvals, and future global demand.[22:51] Page 13: Banks and brokers—global exposure in context A quick look at JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Interactive Brokers—where international activity matters, but may not dominate cash flow.[24:27] Energy pages: why China isn’t the main factor here The group wraps the memo tour with a fast view of energy coverage and why China is less central for the companies highlighted.[25:48] Big Tech CapEx shock: $700B+ and what it implies Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft (and more) are spending at nation-GDP scale; the team debates what’s driving it, how it’s funded, and why “not spending it all” could even be market-positive.[26:41] Chips, capacity, and the TSMC bottleneck question If everyone depends on the same advanced manufacturing base, can supply keep up—and what does that mean for timelines, pricing power, and who benefits?[27:47] Data centers: land, regulation, and the real constraints Beyond chips, the discussion moves to land availability, state-level pushback, and how power procurement and cost allocation can shape where and how fast capacity gets built.[31:09] Cost anatomy of AI infrastructure and the “power isn’t the limiter” view A breakdown of what it takes to build data center capacity—power vs shells vs racks/chips—and why the group believes power can be built out if policy and incentives align.[33:26] Taiwan geopolitics and investing under uncertainty The team closes on Taiwan risk framing, long timelines, and why outcomes may be pursued only when “victory” is assured—military or political.If you’re using the Cash Flow Memo, drop a comment with the tickers you want covered next week—and subscribe so you don’t miss the next exhibit-d

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team connects the dots between macro headlines and the Cash Flow Memo—spanning energy markets, Fed policy, AI’s impact on software, and where China creates real business exposure across industries.[00:20] DisclaimerA quick reminder that the discussion is informational only and not investment advice.[00:45] Exhibit C: Oil Market SetupUS–Iran negotiations and potential sanctions relief could add supply, while shifting demand dynamics (including India) shape the medium-term oil price outlook.[05:06] Exhibit A: Deficits, the Fed, and a New Chair NarrativeA deep dive into the Federal Reserve balance sheet debate, quantitative tightening, and how policy credibility could ripple into rates, the dollar, and even gold/silver sentiment.[10:44] Space Update: Moon Mission + Space-Based Data CentersNASA’s upcoming moon mission sparks a broader conversation: could data centers move to space, and what are the real engineering constraints (heat, orbits, satellite scale)?[14:48] Software Selloff: Can AI Replace SaaS?The crew unpacks why big software names are under pressure—debating whether AI can truly “code on demand” and what moats still matter (support, mission-critical workflows, and systems of record).[18:11] China Impact (Page 20): Consumer Platforms + Supply Chain RealityA quick scan of consumer-facing businesses and where China matters more through sourcing, manufacturing, and supply chain fragility than direct revenue.[19:16] China Impact (Page 1): Apple and Tesla as the BookendsWhy Apple’s manufacturing footprint and China sales exposure remain central—and how Tesla’s China production influences the risk profile.[21:07] Healthcare Focus (Page 19): Big Pharma vs China’s Rising Biotech StackA practical look at how China is integrating across pharma supply chains (generics, CDMOs/CROs, biologics), and why that could evolve into true competitive pressure over time.[23:40] China Impact (Page 2): Cloud + Model Access StrategyOracle, OpenAI financing, and the logic behind AWS positioning as an aggregator of multiple models—versus single-model platform tie-ups.[26:15] China Impact (Page 18): Copper, Lithium, Solar, and the Energy TransitionHow China’s role in solar equipment, lithium refining, and battery production filters into commodities and utilities—and why lithium refining capacity is becoming strategically important.[31:11] Wrap + Next WeekClosing thoughts and a preview of next week’s episode—plus a note on upcoming additions to the pages as new public market names emerge.If you’re using the Cash Flow Memo alongside the episode, download it, follow along by page, and share the show with an investor friend who cares about fundamentals, cash flow, or sailing.SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team connects the dots between macro headlines and the Cash Flow Memo—spanning energy markets, Fed policy, AI’s impact on software, and where China creates real business exposure across industries.[00:20] DisclaimerA quick reminder that the discussion is informational only and not investment advice.[00:45] Exhibit C: Oil Market SetupUS–Iran negotiations and potential sanctions relief could add supply, while shifting demand dynamics (including India) shape the medium-term oil price outlook.[05:06] Exhibit A: Deficits, the Fed, and a New Chair NarrativeA deep dive into the Federal Reserve balance sheet debate, quantitative tightening, and how policy credibility could ripple into rates, the dollar, and even gold/silver sentiment.[10:44] Space Update: Moon Mission + Space-Based Data CentersNASA’s upcoming moon mission sparks a broader conversation: could data centers move to space, and what are the real engineering constraints (heat, orbits, satellite scale)?[14:48] Software Selloff: Can AI Replace SaaS?The crew unpacks why big software names are under pressure—debating whether AI can truly “code on demand” and what moats still matter (support, mission-critical workflows, and systems of record).[18:11] China Impact (Page 20): Consumer Platforms + Supply Chain RealityA quick scan of consumer-facing businesses and where China matters more through sourcing, manufacturing, and supply chain fragility than direct revenue.[19:16] China Impact (Page 1): Apple and Tesla as the BookendsWhy Apple’s manufacturing footprint and China sales exposure remain central—and how Tesla’s China production influences the risk profile.[21:07] Healthcare Focus (Page 19): Big Pharma vs China’s Rising Biotech StackA practical look at how China is integrating across pharma supply chains (generics, CDMOs/CROs, biologics), and why that could evolve into true competitive pressure over time.[23:40] China Impact (Page 2): Cloud + Model Access StrategyOracle, OpenAI financing, and the logic behind AWS positioning as an aggregator of multiple models—versus single-model platform tie-ups.[26:15] China Impact (Page 18): Copper, Lithium, Solar, and the Energy TransitionHow China’s role in solar equipment, lithium refining, and batte

SHOWNOTESIn this special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition, the team runs through the Cash Flow Memo and drafts the companies they think will grow free cash flow the most (percentage basis). Along the way, they hit the latest in oil and natural gas, then pivot into healthcare policy and the AI-driven semiconductor buildout.[00:32] Disclaimer Investment discussion for informational purposes only; do your own work before making any decisions.[00:42] Exhibits A–C: Oil, Gas, and U.S. Fiscal Process Oil firms up on geopolitical risk, natural gas rebounds sharply amid cold-weather pricing, and the team notes progress on U.S. spending bills and budgeting timelines.[05:26] Page 9: Energy Majors and LNG Hunt makes his pick among XOM, CVX, COP, OXY, and LNG—favoring LNG on capacity execution and positioning despite broader LNG supply concerns.[05:59] Page 10: Midstream Showdown On KMI, EPD, ET, WES, and ONEOK, Hunt leans toward EPD for integration and consistent operating performance.[06:19] Page 11: Upstream Discipline Test With oil down meaningfully, Hunt selects EOG as the most disciplined operator best suited to manage a tougher commodity tape.[06:45] Page 12: Natural Gas Producers and Midstream Weighing AR, EQT, CHK, and AM, Hunt calls it close but lands on AR, citing solid positioning and management.[08:01] Page 13: Banks and Brokers Jason and Mike both pick IBKR (and note broad AI agreement), while Hunt goes contrarian with GS; they discuss how buybacks vs. organic growth can drive FCF outcomes.[09:11] Page 14: Industrials and Aerospace Jason picks TDG on aircraft production recovery, Mike sticks with GNRC, and Hunt picks CAT—highlighting end-market sensitivity and where operating leverage may show up.[10:01] Healthcare: Big Pharma and Biotech Picks Jason picks LNTH (new prostate diagnostic and Alzheimer’s imaging growth), Mike picks VRTX, and they recap last year’s surprising winner and how baselines can distort growth rates.[11:34] Page 16: Consumer, Restaurants, and Beverage Jason and Mike align on CELH (including growth from Alani Nu), while Hunt goes with CMG and discusses leadership changes and brand durability.[13:28] Page 17: Logistics, Retail, and Housing Jason sticks with FDX (including a thesis around USPS services), while Mike and Hunt pick LEN—framing potential tailwinds for homebuilding and affordability dynamics.[15:01] Page 18: Materials, Fertilizer, and Utilities The team debates FCX vs. ALB vs. CF vs. NEE, focusing on lithium snapback potential, copper strength, and commodity-linked cashflow volatility.[17:05] Page 19: Managed Care and Pharma Giants With UNH, CVS, REGN, and LLY, the group converges on LLY again—weight-loss and Alzheimer’s themes dominate the discussion.[18:41] Page 20: Platforms, Delivery, Travel, and Small-Cap Healthcare Jason and Mike pick HROW again as commercialization scales, while Hunt chooses UBER, arguing the market may be underestimating Uber’s moat as autonomy ramps.[20:20] Scoreboard and Pick Recap They tally results (including AI agents) and reflect on where each host’s picks were strongest vs. weakest.[21:08] Healthcare Policy: PBM Reform and Incentives Jason breaks down PBM-related provisions affecting Medicare Part D incentives and rebates, plus how workarounds (e.g., GPO structures) can blunt intended reforms.[23:05] Administration, FDA Direction, and System-Level Change The team argues that structural regulatory changes to food/health oversight may be more durable than headline-grabbing controversies, emphasizing long-term consumer impact.[26:36] Semiconductors: ASML Bookings and the Capex Reality Check They interpret strong ASML bookings as evidence the AI infrastructure buildout remains real, then discuss TSM capacity constraints, Intel’s catch-up spend, and why partners seek second sources.[29:10] China, Taiwan Risk, and the Next Topic Arc A forward-looking setup for deeper China/Taiwan discussion across the memo universe, with a reading plug for Apple in China and how policy risk filters through real businesses.Thanks for listening. If you want the updated Cash Flow Memo and exhibits, download it at the podcast site—then drop a comment with your own “Pick’em” winners and what data you’re watching this year.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this informati

SHOWNOTESThis special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition runs a percentage-based free cash flow draft across the memo (pages 1–13), then closes with exhibits on oil, natural gas, and the U.S. budget—plus a healthcare segment featuring GLP-1 dynamics and emerging cancer vaccine data.[00:00] Cashflow Pick’em Format and Ground Rules Host sets the framework: pick the company on each page most likely to grow free cash flow the most on a percentage basis, and keep score versus last year’s predictions.[00:00] Disclaimer Standard informational-purpose disclaimer and reminder to do your own work.[00:00] Big Tech Picks: Tesla vs. Amazon vs. Apple Spending The group reviews last year’s results (Tesla surprised on FCF growth) and debates whether AI data-center CapEx keeps pressuring peers while Tesla benefits off a lower base and optionality (including robotaxi economics).[00:04] Software Picks: ServiceNow, Broadcom, Snowflake, Oracle Lessons ServiceNow won last year, Oracle disappointed, and this year’s debate centers on Broadcom’s AI hardware exposure versus Snowflake as an enabling layer for agentic tooling.[00:06] Semiconductors: Nvidia’s Run Rate vs. TSM CapEx and AMD/Intel Wildcards Nvidia’s dominance is acknowledged, but the conversation digs into bottlenecks, pricing power, and whether heavy foundry CapEx changes the cash flow race.[00:09] Media: Spotify Discipline vs. Netflix Spend and Deal Risk Spotify’s cash flow trajectory and cost discipline face off against Netflix’s content ramp and strategic transaction risks, with Meta and Disney briefly framed through the lens of capital intensity.[00:11] Telecom/Cable: AT&T Cloud RAN Thesis, Charter CapEx, T-Mobile Execution Comcast’s prior-year surprise is noted, then the focus shifts to margin structures, leverage, and whether cloud-based network architectures can unlock better economics.[00:13] Payments: PayPal Turnaround vs. Visa/Mastercard Durability The group leans into operating leverage and improvement potential at PayPal versus steadier compounding models for the networks.[00:14] Retailers: Walmart Resilience, Home Depot Housing Tailwinds, CarMax Turnaround A tough page with shrinking free cash flow leads to a discussion of “least bad” outcomes and what could drive a bounce-back, including housing policy tailwinds.[15:56] Exhibit C (Oil): Supply Discipline, OPEC+ Capacity, and WTI Range A quick state-of-play on global supply, spare capacity trends, and why the base case centers around high-$50s/low-$60s WTI with constrained production increases.[18:55] Exhibit B (Natural Gas): Henry Hub Pressure and LNG Oversupply Risk Natural gas retraces from recent highs as supply builds early; LNG growth remains the hope, but global pricing and oversupply dynamics can cap upside.[20:41] Exhibit A (U.S. Government Finances): Shutdown Risk and Budget Process Discussion on funding deadlines, progress on appropriations, and why a shutdown appears less likely if committees complete key spending bills.[21:54] Healthcare News: JPM Conference, Moderna–Merck Melanoma Data, Illumina Reimbursement Updates on muted deal flow, encouraging long-duration melanoma outcomes from a Moderna–Merck program, and a notable reimbursement development for Illumina-related oncology testing.[24:25] Lilly vs. Novo: GLP-1 Pills, Patents, and the Next Margin Battle The group evaluates oral GLP-1 momentum, patent cliffs outside the U.S., and why manufacturing cost and pricing strategy could reshape share over time.[26:27] Cancer Vaccines: How They Fit Into Treatment and Monitoring A practical framework for vaccines as an “anti-relapse” add-on, the role of MRD/early detection, and how falling test costs could expand routine screening and follow-on interventions.[31:01] Wrap and Next Week They pause the memo walkthrough to finish the remaining pages next episode and invite listeners to follow along with the memo and exhibits.If you want the full context behind each pick, download the Cash Flow Memo and follow along page-by-page. Subscribe for next week’s continuation of the cashflow predictions and more updates across energy, technology, and healthcare.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through their 2026 surprises across healthcare, tech, and energy—then tie it back to what cash flow investors should actually watch. Expect big calls on pharma M&A, AI in healthcare workflows, macro deficits, and the durability of Nvidia’s profit engine.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo Quick setup on the weekly memo and the focus areas for this episode: energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:25] Disclaimer Standard informational-only disclaimer before the discussion begins.[00:35] Healthcare Surprises for 2026 The group frames the “surprises” format and tees up Jason and Mike before Hunt’s larger policy thesis.[01:01] 2026 Could Be the Biggest Pharma M&A Year Ever Jason argues looming patent cliffs could force massive dealmaking just to keep sales flat—setting up a potentially historic acquisition cycle.[02:33] High Fructose Corn Syrup Ban Thesis A policy-driven surprise: Jason predicts a push to ban high fructose corn syrup as a simpler lever than restructuring agricultural subsidies.[02:56] Functional Cure for Parkinson’s via Cell & Gene Therapy Jason outlines why a breakthrough approval could arrive quickly—and why it could reignite investor optimism in the broader cell/gene complex.[04:36] AI Agent Doctors and Prescription Workflows Mike predicts “agentic” healthcare interactions; Jason points to real-world pilots aimed at reducing friction in routine prescription refills.[05:58] Medicare for All as a Bipartisan Surprise Hunt lays out a scenario where Medicare expands eligibility broadly, potentially eliminating Medicaid and shrinking the uninsured population—plus the deficit math challenges.[13:15] UnitedHealthcare, PBMs, and Structural Pressure The conversation touches on insurer economics, PBM exposure, and how policy shifts could reallocate (or disrupt) the healthcare profit pool.[14:10] AI in Healthcare: HIPAA-Compliant Tools and Workflow Enablement The group discusses AI applications in medical records and patient education, and why healthcare is becoming a prime arena for LLM deployment.[16:08] Oil Exhibit C: Resilient Prices Amid Geopolitics Hunt reviews production context (Iran, Venezuela) and why oil may hold in a higher range despite arguments for lower pricing.[17:38] Natural Gas Exhibit B: Production Surge and Power Demand Reality Check A high-supply setup led by the Permian meets softer “gas to power” demand—while LNG feed gas remains a key bright spot.[19:26] U.S. Government Finances Exhibit A: Deficit Focus and Spending Discipline Tariffs, entitlement reality, and the central objective: bending the deficit trajectory down over the next fiscal years.[21:41] Apple-Google: Gemini-Powered Siri Deal The group breaks down what the deal signals strategically and why “memory” and switching costs could define the next era of AI platforms.[23:45] Retail Updates: Walmart, Target, and Amazon’s Reinvestment Machine Hunt revisits Walmart’s free cash flow and compares retail positioning, while highlighting Amazon’s extreme R&D and capex reinvestment intensity.[27:00] Is Nvidia’s Margin Sustainability the Key Tech Question? Nvidia’s free cash flow conversion, hyperscaler capex expectations, and the integrated “full stack” advantage (compute, networking, cooling) that may defend margins.[30:42] Next Week Preview: China Exposure Across the Memo The team tees up a two-part run through the memo’s companies with a focus on China risk, Taiwan Semiconductor, and regulatory constraints.If you found this helpful, download the latest Cash Flow Memo and follow the channel for weekly episodes covering energy, technology, and healthcare through a cash flow lens. Share the episode with an investor who cares about fundamentals, not narratives.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt continue their “surprise” predictions for 2026. This week, focusing on tech related surprises. Then they shift into the memo’s exhibits on oil, natural gas, and U.S. government finances. They close with timely healthcare updates and a rapid-fire run through major news on pages 1–4.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales Mike introduces the Cash Flow Memo and previews a fast tour through energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:00] Disclaimer A quick reminder: this conversation is informational only and not investment advice.[00:30] 5 Tech Surprises for ’26 The team frames the segment as “surprises” that run against conventional wisdom, setting up five big tech calls.[01:41] #1 Stablecoins surpass SWIFT (monthly volume) Why stablecoins could become a dominant rail for cross-border dollar flows, and what regulation changes might mean.[04:09] #2 Tesla robotaxi rides beat Waymo (weekly) The case for a faster network rollout, plus skepticism around why autonomy scaling has been slower than expected.[06:17] #3 First quantum break of a crypto wallet A prediction that a dormant, high-value wallet gets cracked via brute-force quantum capability, distinct from “traditional” hacks.[08:04] #4 xAI leads foundation models by end of ’26 A debate on whether hardware scale and speed to deploy new systems could shift leadership in frontier AI models.[10:43] #5 Federal AI legislation passes The group discusses incentives for a single national framework versus a patchwork of state rules.[11:26] Macro surprise: Republicans hold the House A quick political curveball and how it could influence the policy backdrop for tech, crypto, and AI.[12:04] Sponsor break: Oakcliff Sailing A brief interlude on hands-on composite repair training and high-performance sailing programs.[13:13] Exhibit C: Oil and Venezuela Hunt breaks down why Venezuela’s “reserves” story is complicated, what heavy oil economics imply, and why Chevron flows matter for prices.[16:56] Exhibit B: Natural Gas and the Permian Warmer weather, weak Waha pricing, rising associated gas, and LNG liftings all collide in the 2026 setup.[18:53] Exhibit A: U.S. finances and the deficit path Why they think the deficit can keep shrinking with growth + inflation, and what to watch around potential shutdown headlines.[21:50] Healthcare news JPMorgan Healthcare Conference expectations, Novo Nordisk’s pill-form weight-loss move, Eli Lilly’s competitive dynamics, and why MRD testing could reshape trial design and treatment timing.[24:38] Pages 1–4: Tech and market news round-up Netflix and Warner deal chatter, antitrust workarounds, Nvidia’s next-gen platform economics, xAI fundraising, JPM’s “Proxy IQ,” ASML talent leakage concerns, and what it means to onshore leading-edge chips.[35:06] Next week The team tees up “healthcare surprises” for the next episode and signs off.If you found this useful, grab the latest Cash Flow Memo and follow along with Exhibits A–C as you listen. Subscribe for next week’s healthcare surprise episode and drop a comment with your boldest 2026 prediction.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

A rapid-fire “surprises for 2026” episode—contrarian macro + energy calls, then quick year-end check-ins for tech and healthcare through a cash-flow lens.[00:20] Disclaimer Informational only, not investment advice.[00:30] Macro & Energy Surprises Framework “Five-and-a-half surprises” for 2026: plausible outcomes that run against consensus.[01:24] Surprise: Debt-to-GNP Falls A scenario where the deficit narrows enough that debt held by the public declines (as % of GNP) by ~1 point.[02:40] Surprise: NRC Issues 2 Reactor Construction Permits A call that the nuclear regulator approves two new builds—potentially one traditional large reactor and one SMR.[04:39] Surprise: Private Fusion Hits Ignition A major fusion milestone happens outside a national lab—important progress, even if commercialization is still distant.[05:57] Reality Check: Nuclear Economics Debate on who eats overruns and how cost-of-capital + rate structures can cap nuclear’s rollout.[08:43] Surprise: Gas Supply Stays Strong Pushback on “associated gas is rolling over” narratives; the case that supply holds up into 2026.[10:05] Surprise: $5 Natural Gas A demand-driven bull case (LNG + data centers) that lifts marginal costs and resets the price band higher.[11:49] Surprise: China Oil Demand Re-Accelerates The team argues China could return to demand growth, challenging “peak demand” assumptions.[12:34] Next Two Weeks Preview Same “surprises” format continues—next week tech, following week healthcare.[12:54] Exhibit C: Oil Quick scan of oil + geopolitics; acknowledge headline risk without anchoring forecasts to low-probability events.[13:25] Exhibit B: Natural Gas Check the strips and structure (e.g., backwardation/contango) and what it implies for pricing.[13:51] Exhibit A: US Government Finances A fast read on fiscal dynamics and the political incentives shaping spending/subsidies.[17:31] Tech Updates Year-end thoughts on major semis/software—Nvidia + Groq talk, plus Amazon’s Graviton and CPU economics.[21:09] Healthcare Updates Preview themes: opioids, depression treatments, and drug pricing—plus how subsidies/incentives affect utilization and costs.[27:52] Wrap-Up Closing thoughts and a reminder: next week is tech surprises, then healthcare surprises—subscribe so you don’t miss them.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This week the team speeds through Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, natural gas, and oil) before revisiting last year’s “10-ish surprises” and what they signal for 2026 across energy, tech, and healthcare.[00:20] Disclaimer This conversation is for informational purposes only—do your own work before making any investment decision.[00:39] Exhibit C: Oil & the “shadow fleet” Brent rebounds as the U.S. boards a shadow-fleet tanker; the crew discusses how stepped-up enforcement could tighten sanctioned supply and push oil back toward the $70s.[03:48] Exhibit B: Natural gas & LNG economics Cold weather supports near-term gas, but the bigger focus is potential LNG oversupply and the all-in cost math of shipping U.S. gas to Europe and Asia (JKM).[06:00] Exhibit A: Deficits, rates, and healthcare costs They argue future deficit progress likely requires expense discipline—especially Medicare/Medicaid—while debating how Fed cuts may (or may not) translate into a lower 10-year Treasury.[07:46] “10-ish Surprises” framework for 2025 A Byron Wien–style review: what surprised in 2025, what didn’t happen, and next week we will roll out our list for 2026[08:39] Energy surprises: Saudi strategy & LNG permits Saudi Arabia appears more willing to defend market share in a weak market, while U.S. policy shifts reignite momentum for LNG project approvals.[09:49] Fusion timeline watch The group revisits the “private fusion ignition” idea and why milestones like Commonwealth Fusion’s 2027 target keep the theme alive.[10:32] Tech surprises: Apple/Google, Tesla, and AV policy They cover the iPhone-to-Android “miss,” antitrust pressure on Google’s default search deal with Apple, Tesla’s growing in-car voice controls, and the continued patchwork of autonomous-vehicle regulation.[12:44] AI adoption: hype vs. enterprise reality Demand is booming, but real business use cases still lag—Mike frames 2026 as a potential “early CRM” moment where pilots finally become production workflows.[14:54] Creators and GenAI Influencers aren’t “replaced,” but AI-assisted and AI-native content is accelerating—especially short-form, multi-clip storytelling formats.[16:19] Healthcare surprises: AI in drug development They debate what qualifies as an “AI-designed” drug and highlight the FDA’s move toward more in-silico modeling and reduced reliance on animal testing.[18:46] Food policy: corn syrup and incremental change RFK-era efforts show traction on certain additives, but banning corn syrup remains a tougher political/economic lift.[19:37] Macro surprises: spending, auctions, and geopolitics They revisit the “$500B improvement” (more revenue than lower spending), note that crisis scenarios didn’t materialize, and discuss rolling forward China–Taiwan—plus the “one-person unicorn” concept.[23:19] Next week preview More 2026 surprises incoming—shadow-fleet enforcement, quantum computing, and a tighter rule: cap the list at 20.Download the latest Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us, and subscribe so you don’t miss next week’s continuation of the 2026 surprises list.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team runs quickly through the memo’s Exhibits A–C (US finances, natural gas, and oil), then digs into the shifting competitive landscape in AI chips—Google, Nvidia, Broadcom, and the hyperscalers’ next moves.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo A quick setup for a cross-sector episode spanning energy, technology, and healthcare—and a reminder to download the memo.[00:00:20] Disclaimer Important investing and risk disclosures before the discussion begins.[00:00:40] Exhibit C: Oil — Oversupply and price pressure The group discusses rising surplus capacity, the market’s reaction to weaker growth expectations (including China), and why certain geopolitical headlines may matter less than they seem.[00:02:21] Exhibit B: Natural Gas — LNG margins and Europe pricing A look at softer gas pricing despite cold weather, the economics of getting LNG to Europe, and what shifting European supply dynamics could mean.[00:03:45] Exhibit A: US Government Finances — Deficit trends and rate sensitivity The deficit outlook improves into 2026, with discussion on revenue growth, expense discipline, interest costs, and the 2s/10s spread as a key watch item.[00:05:07] Why Google needs Broadcom & Nvidia does not The core segment: Google’s “software-orchestrator” DNA behind TPUs, Broadcom’s role as an industrialization partner, and Nvidia’s end-to-end “AI factory” strategy across chips, networking, and systems.[00:18:59] The case for the MAG 6 (and the risks to watch) A year-end reflection on portfolio construction: why a handful of dominant platforms may be hard to ignore—and how to think about “Intel/IBM-style” downside risk inside today’s winners.[00:26:19] Healthcare Updates — IPO talk and FDA acceleration Notes on a major healthcare IPO narrative, plus a standout FDA action tied to strong multiple myeloma data and what faster review pathways could signal.[00:28:04] Next Week + Wrap A scheduling update (Monday sessions), a preview of predictions, and a closing reminder to stay healthy and keep up with the memo.If you found this helpful, subscribe for weekly episodes and grab the latest Cash Flow Memo so you can follow along with the companies, exhibits, and valuation framework discussed.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode of the Telltales Podcast, Mike, Hunt, and Jason walk through the latest Cash Flow Memo—from US government finances and energy markets to a deep-dive on Nvidia and the AI data center buildout. They revisit the “Nvidia’s Five Risks” memo 18 months later and ask what could still derail the story for investors focused on cash flow.[00:00] Welcome & what’s in the Cash Flow MemoMike kicks off the episode with the usual Telltales introduction, highlights the Cash Flow Memo, and sets up a 30-minute tour through energy, technology, healthcare, and US government finances tied to Exhibits A, B, and C.[00:00:20] Disclaimer & investing ground rulesStandard disclosure that the conversation is for informational purposes only, not investment advice, and that listeners must do their own work before making investing decisions.[00:00:43] Exhibit C – Oil, China’s slowdown & a maturing global cycleHunt walks through Exhibit C, noting flat oil demand growth in China, the US, and Europe, arguing that China’s economy looks more “mature” and that global oil consumption growth should slow toward ~600,000 barrels per day, with implications for crude prices and upstream oil producers.[00:02:00] Exhibit B – Natural gas, Permian overproduction & negative Waha pricesExhibit B shows a very different picture for gas: cold weather, near-month prices spiking toward $5, the 2026 strip around $4+, and yet associated gas from the Permian keeps pushing production higher, leading to bizarre negative prices at the Waha hub and a tricky setup for upstream gas investors.[00:04:08] Exhibit A – US deficit, healthcare costs & the path for interest ratesTurning to Exhibit A, Hunt explains why fiscal year 2026 could look slightly better than 2025, how moderating healthcare and Medicaid growth could help stabilize the deficit, and why keeping debt-to-GDP near or below ~100% is crucial for anchoring long-term interest rates.[00:06:02] Inflation targets, deglobalization & the politics of power pricesJason questions whether the Fed’s 2% inflation goal is realistic in a deglobalizing world, while Hunt focuses on gasoline and electricity bills, arguing that regulators should “wall off” AI data centers from retail power rates and that utility regulation will become a bigger political issue.[00:08:22] Setting up Nvidia: revisiting “Hyperscale CapEx and Nvidia’s Five Risks”Hunt hands the conversation to Mike to revisit their August 2024 memo on Nvidia’s five key risks, explaining how Nvidia became the most valuable company in the world and why it’s time to compare the original risk map with what actually happened.[00:09:55] Risk #1 – CapEx digestion & token demand vs. GPU buildoutMike reviews the fear that hyperscalers would overbuild data centers and then “digest” CapEx, but notes that 18 months later Nvidia’s data center revenue is running north of $200 billion and older A100 GPUs are still fully utilized, shifting the key question to whether inference token demand can keep pace with GPU capacity.[00:12:14] Risk #2 – Depreciation mismatch & AI economics vs. accountingThe team revisits the concern that extending server depreciation lives to five or six years might overstate earnings if GPUs become obsolete faster, concluding it’s mostly a non-issue for big platforms like Google and Meta but something to watch for “neo-clouds” if their average contract lengths shorten.[00:15:28] Risk #3 – The AI scaling wall, X’s Colossus & the rise of networkingMike explains why the feared “scaling wall” hasn’t arrived, how X’s massive H100 clusters (Colossus) showed that coherent mega-clusters can leapfrog competitors, and why Nvidia’s networking stack—boosted by the Mellanox acquisition—is becoming as important as the chips themselves.[00:17:55] Risk #4 – Non-chip bottlenecks: software efficiency, power & export controlsThey tackle non-chip constraints: DeepSeek’s efficiency gains and Jevons Paradox (cheaper tokens driving more demand), severe power bottlenecks that leave Microsoft with idle chips awaiting grid connections, and geopolitical export controls that periodically restrict Nvidia’s ability to sell GPUs into China.[00:20:28] Risk #5 – Competition from Google, AMD, TPUs and custom siliconThe conversation turns to competitive threats: AMD as a perpetual second source, Google’s TPU v7 and its own coherent clusters powering Gemini, and custom ASICs for workloads large enough to justify re-architecting software, even as Nvidia remains the default platform for most AI data center compute.[00:21:51] Nvidia’s valuation, free cash flow growth & token-driven demandHunt walks through Nvidia’s latest numbers and a free cash flow multiple around 40–45x, asking whether 20% annual growth is realistic, while Jason and Mike discuss the massive potential if CPU-based data centers transition to GPU/TPU-based AI infrastructure over many years.[00:25:27] Healthcare, legal work & the real drivers of token growthJason highlights early healthcare AI use cases in medical note-

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt break down the big moving pieces across energy, technology, and healthcare—anchored by the latest Cash Flow Memo and the three macro exhibits. The centerpiece: Alphabet’s “comeback,” what really changed inside Google, and where AI may go next.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo[00:20] Disclaimer[00:31] Exhibit C: Oil and geopoliticsHunt frames oil’s near-term setup through the lens of Russia/Ukraine developments and what that could mean for crude pricing.[00:46] Exhibit B: Natural Gas—weather boost, but supply riskNatural gas catches a bid with supportive weather, but Hunt flags higher dry gas production and questions around LNG economics and potential oversupply.[02:34] Exhibit A: US government finances + debt trajectoryA deficit-and-debt reality check, including the politics around extending subsidies and the broader challenge of stabilizing debt as a share of GDP.[06:27] WSJ watch: extraditions and the Mexico angleMike flags a Wall Street Journal piece on extradited Mexican drug lords and why it stood out for him.[06:59] Don’t call it a comeback: Alphabet/Google and AIThe group unpacks why Google “came back” in AI: not sudden discovery, but finally shipping—plus the internal tension of protecting the search cash machine while deploying chat-first products.[17:51] Memo Page 1: Alphabet vs mega-cap peers + antitrust contextHunt highlights just how massive Alphabet’s revenue/cash flow footprint is relative to Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft—and how AI shifts the framing around search and “monopoly” narratives.[21:17] Healthcare news: switching gearsAfter tech dominates the first half, the team pivots to healthcare catalysts and policy considerations.[21:28] Vertex: Morgan Stanley upgrade and kidney disease opportunityJason summarizes the upgrade thesis and how risk-adjusted revenue expectations could build meaningfully into the 2030s.[22:00] Harrow: Vevye becomes Tier 1 on CVS formularyA tangible commercial catalyst: Tier 1 status can shift volume, lower copays, and potentially improve realized pricing dynamics.[22:55] 340B program changes: incentives, spreads, and reform attemptsJason explains how 340B evolved from safety-net intent into a profit engine for many hospitals—and what pending changes may do (and not do) to fix the system.[24:52] ACA tax credit deal: extend now, reform nextA practical debate: don’t create a coverage cliff, but use the urgency to push transparency, catastrophic-coverage thinking, and patient incentives.[28:58] Next week previewA tease for what’s coming—potentially a focused segment on key risks facing NVIDIA, with more healthcare deep-dives promised soon.Thanks for listening—download the Cash Flow Memo to follow along with the numbers, and subscribe so you don’t miss next week’s breakdown.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through the latest Cash Flow Memo, from global oil and gas balances and U.S. deficits to Big Tech’s AI platform war and key healthcare and biotech updates. It’s a tour of where cash is really being earned today in energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:00] Welcome, disclaimer & how to use the Cash Flow MemoMike kicks things off with the Telltales framework, a reminder to download the memo at telltales.us, and the usual “do your own work” investing disclaimer.[00:31] Exhibit C: Oil, OPEC+ and a long stretch of $60 crudeHunt walks through global oil supply and demand, highlighting Russian declines, Saudi increases, and flat demand in mature economies and China that could keep oil around $60 (or below) for 24–30 months before the market rebalances.[06:03] Exhibit B: Natural gas supply wave, LNG buildout & data centersThey dissect the relentless growth in U.S. gas supply—especially associated gas from the Permian—volatile Henry Hub pricing, and how LNG exports and power demand (including AI data centers) are key to absorbing the glut.[10:50] Exhibit A: U.S. deficits, healthcare subsidies & rising interest costsHunt reviews the federal budget picture, the fight over extending ACA tax credits, Medicare and Medicaid pressures, and why falling Fed funds rates may not translate cleanly into lower 10-year yields and mortgage rates.[13:26] The platform war Apple lost to NVIDIAMike and Jason tell the story of CUDA vs OpenCL, how NVIDIA turned GPUs into a proprietary compute platform, why Apple retreated into Metal and Apple Silicon, and how that history explains today’s Gemini-powered Siri and Apple’s “rent the brain, own the user context” strategy.[23:42] Big Tech scoreboard & AI market leadershipThe team compares market caps of NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft, discusses “Mag 6” dynamics (minus Tesla), and weighs how much of Big Tech’s strength is justified cash flow versus AI-driven froth.[25:36] Vertex: non-opioid pain strategy and next-gen channel targeting (memo p.15)Jason updates Vertex’s non-opioid pain franchise, steady prescription growth, and early optimism around a new binding site targeting another pain channel as programs transition into human testing.[26:16] Eli Lilly drops CVS Caremark for a smaller PBM (memo p.19)They cover Lilly’s switch from CVS Caremark to Rightway, how conflicts of interest at large insurer-owned PBMs distort drug pricing, and why a more neutral model could better align incentives.[26:44] CMS moves to close outpatient billing loopholesJason explains CMS’s push toward site-neutral payments for drug administration, especially chemo given in outpatient centers billed at hospital rates, and what that could mean for cancer care costs and Medicare spending.[27:42] mRNA cancer vaccines: Moderna vs BioNTech’s cash flow choices (memo p.15)Hunt, Jason, and Mike frame “cancer vaccines” as personalized post-treatment immunization, then contrast BioNTech’s cash-rich, capital-disciplined position with Moderna’s heavier post-COVID burn and what that implies for long-term investors.Thanks for listening to Telltales. If this episode helped you think differently about cash flows and moats in energy, tech, and healthcare, hit subscribe, leave a review, and grab the full Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of the Telltales Podcast, Mike, Jason and Hunt walk through the latest Cash Flow Memo, tying together US fiscal policy, oil and gas fundamentals, and the cash-hungry AI build-out at Apple, Amazon, Nvidia and more. They also dive into GLP-1 pricing wars, ophthalmology upstarts, and how post-COVID cash piles are being spent in biotech.[00:00] Welcome, format & Cash Flow Memo overview[00:20] Quick disclaimer (informational only)[00:30] Exhibit C – Oil demand, OPEC and a “mature” ChinaHunt reviews OPEC’s restrained production increases and how slower global liquid fuel demand growth, especially from a now-mature China, is extending the time needed to work off surplus barrels. They discuss why macro risks (Iran, Russia) may still keep WTI around $60 despite sluggish demand.[02:20] Exhibit B – US natural gas, LNG and power demand The crew breaks down booming LNG demand versus relentless US gas supply growth from the Permian, Haynesville and Marcellus. Negative Waha hub pricing, pipeline constraints to the Gulf Coast, coal’s temporary share gain in power, and the likely return of gas-fired growth post-2026 all feature.[03:34] Exhibit A – US deficits, debt-to-GDP and the dollar Hunt walks through US government revenues, spending and a projected $400–500B deficit reduction in 2026, contrasting America’s path with China, Europe and Japan. They highlight how stabilizing debt-to-GDP around ~100% and a potentially stronger dollar could support capital markets.[04:54] Apple, Siri & the Gemini deal: renting AI instead of building it (Memo p.1)Hunt, Jason and Mike dig into Apple’s decision to license Google’s Gemini model to upgrade Siri, while keeping the model on Apple-controlled servers for privacy and antitrust reasons. They contrast Apple’s historically low ~$12B CapEx with Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft, and debate whether running large language models will finally force Apple to “spend like a hyperscaler.”[07:00] Hardware vs software at Apple, and the next CEO profile (Memo p.1)Mike recalls Apple’s earlier need to buy NeXT for its OS, drawing a parallel to today’s LLM lag. They argue that under Jobs, software quality led hardware, whereas under Cook, hardware has leapt ahead while software (Siri, iOS polish) has slipped—shaping why a hardware-centric leader like John Ternus may be the logical next CEO.[09:00] Google’s incentives, Apple’s privacy stance & why not just use Google’s cloud? (Memo p.1 – AAPL, GOOGL)The hosts question whether a $1B annual fee truly compensates Google for tailoring Gemini to Apple silicon and serving it from Apple data centers. They explain why Apple can’t simply run AI off Google’s cloud without undermining its security narrative and App Store defense.[11:00] TSMC, Nvidia vs Apple and the chip supply pecking order (Memo p. 1, 3 – AAPL TSM NVDA)Hunt quizzes Jason on who is the bigger TSMC customer now—Apple or Nvidia—and how priority access to leading-edge nodes has shifted. They touch on AMD’s timing on new process nodes, hints of a historical feud between Steve Jobs and Jensen Huang, and why Apple still relies on laptop-class chips in its data centers.[14:58] Harrow Health: retina focus and salesforce strategy shift (Memo p.20)Turning to healthcare, the team revisits Harrow’s progress commercializing its ophthalmology portfolio, especially one drug with slower-than-expected uptake. Jason explains Harrow’s pivot to target retina surgeons more directly and sell a broader basket of products through a focused salesforce.[15:54] GLP-1 wars: Novo Nordisk vs Eli Lilly on price (Memo p.19)On page 19, they examine Novo Nordisk’s response to Lilly’s lead in GLP-1s, with Novo aggressively undercutting pricing on Ozempic/Wegovy to ~$199–349 per month for self-pay patients. Jason notes this is a rare corner of healthcare where competition and out-of-insurance purchasing have driven prices from ~$1,200 to ~$200 a month in just a year.[17:09] Regeneron’s Eylea cliff and new eye-care competition (Memo p.19)Mike outlines how Regeneron’s Eylea faces a wave of biosimilar competition, underwhelming uptake of Eylea HD, and new implant-based therapies that reduce injection frequency to every 6–12 months. They still respect Regeneron as a company, but highlight mounting pressure on this key franchise.[18:12] Vertex: cystic fibrosis strength and non-opioid pain optionality (Memo p.15)The conversation moves to Vertex’s healthy cystic fibrosis business and its potential upside from novel pain medicines awaiting clarity under the US “No Pain Act.” Jason emphasizes how reimbursement decisions could unlock broader coverage and meaningfully expand the addressable market.[18:47] BioNTech vs Moderna: who kept their COVID cash? (Memo p.15)Hunt contrasts BioNTech’s ~€14B cash hoard with Moderna’s reduced ~$4.5B balance, despite both enjoying COVID windfalls. He credits BioNTech’s more conservative founders—who famously still bike to work—as an example of capital discipline, and hints at a new ana

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of the Telltales Podcast, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through the weekly Cash Flow Memo: oil, gas, and US government finances, then dive deep into Taiwan Semiconductor’s history and the future of chip manufacturing, before closing with tech headlines and high-impact healthcare updates. Along the way they connect physics, policy, and business models back to cash flows and the durability of different franchises.[00:00] Intro[00:20] Disclaimer[00:30] Exhibit C: Oil Demand Slows, Supply Investment in Focus[02:55] Exhibit B: Natural Gas, LNG & Power Demand[04:32] Exhibit A: US Deficit, Tariffs & Shutdown Drama[05:29] History of TSMC & Morris Chang’s Foundry Revolution[08:31] TSMC vs the Old Guard: From “Real Men Have Fabs” to Neutral Foundry (p. 3)[10:53] Apple, EUV & TSMC as a Geopolitical Chokepoint (p. 3)[13:45] The Future of Fabs: EUV vs X-Ray & Substrate’s Bet (p. 3)[17:20] Economics, Power Needs & Who Adopts X-Ray Fabs First (p. 3)[22:50] Tech News: Amazon’s Data Center Build-Out & AI Power Constraints (p. 1)[24:05] Uber + Nvidia Robotaxis & The AV “Three-Way Contest” (pp. 1, 3, 20)[25:10] Tesla FSD v13 Test Ride – Getting “Very Good” (p. 1)[25:31] Harrow: Lawsuit Overhang vs Branded-Drug Growth (p. 20)[27:30] Harrow’s Melt Pharmaceuticals Deal & Capital Allocation (p. 20)[28:57] Vertex: Kidney Disease Breakthrough & Fast-Track Timeline (p. 15)[31:16] Vertex’s Non-Opioid Pain Drug & Reimbursement Uncertainty (p. 15)[31:52] FDA Leadership & Regulatory Stability To keep up with future episodes of the Telltales Podcast, download the weekly Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and subscribe wherever you listen. If you’re enjoying these deep dives into cash-flow-driven investing across energy, technology, and healthcare, consider sharing the show with a friend or colleague.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week we connect the dots across oil & gas markets, the rise of dollar-pegged stablecoins, and tech’s CapEx surge—then wrap with healthcare M&A and GLP-1 distribution shifts. Expect sharp takes, real numbers, and what it all means for cash flow and valuation.[00:00] Intro [00:20] Disclaimer [00:30] Exhibit C: Oil—OPEC+ restraint & a flat curve Oil hovers near $60 as OPEC+ (including Russia) keeps supply tight, flattening the forward curve. Limited monthly additions may be enough to hold prices and gradually curb non-OPEC supply growth.[01:45] Exhibit B: Natural Gas—Term structure resilience While near-dated gas has been choppy, the 2026 strip holds around ~$4, signaling longer-term support even as the front of the curve softens.[02:03] Exhibit A: U.S. Fiscal—Deficit glidepath & the dollar Targets to bring the deficit down from ~1.9T toward ~1.5T (with ~1.1T a better long-run anchor) would improve debt/GDP trajectory. With other major economies levering up, a relatively disciplined U.S. could re-strengthen the dollar.[02:57] Stablecoins vs. Payment Rails—What actually threatens banksStablecoins (not Bitcoin) pose the nearer-term challenge to bank settlement: ~$180B tethered supply and an estimated ~$28T in annual transactions point to real adoption. Large banks (e.g., JPM) pilot 24/7 institutional settlement while providers like Tether/USDC keep pegs via T-bills; upside is always-on money movement, downside is slow base-chain throughput, energy cost, and roll-back limitations.[07:10] Real-world case: Cross-border flows (SpaceX/Starlink) Illustration of collecting multi-currency revenues and quickly neutralizing FX risk by hopping into stablecoins, then sweeping back into U.S. Treasuries for working capital—freeing cash and reducing cycle times.[10:45] Why blockchain won’t replace Visa at checkoutBlocks finalize slowly and propagate across tens of thousands of nodes—fine for large settlements, frustrating at the point of sale. Expect banks to adopt the features (programmability, 24/7, instant-ish settlement) inside more centralized, regulated systems rather than relying on public chains.[13:46] Page 1: Big Tech check-in (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, TSLA) Q3 prints were broadly strong. Tesla’s valuation (>200× FCF) contrasts with Apple’s richer FCF yield and subdued CapEx, while AMZN/GOOG/MSFT step up AI-driven CapEx, compressing near-term FCF yields.[14:15] Page 4: Meta & friends—spend now, justify later? (NFLX, DIS, META, SPOT) Meta draws heat for outsized OpEx/CapEx without a third-party cloud profit engine. Bulls cite Zuck’s strong historic capital returns and AGI ambition; bears point to revenue timing and the market’s patience.[16:26] Page 1 (cont.): Data center CapEx & the power bottleneckHyperscalers highlight power constraints as a real limiter, explaining “neo-cloud” deals and long-lead grid work. CapEx lifts push FCF multiples higher (lower yields) even as deployed GPU fleets monetize quickly.[19:36] Page 2: Software’s ‘capital-light’ myth (CRM, NOW, SNOW, ORCL, AVGO) Low CapEx ≠ low investment: massive Sales & R&D are the true “maintenance” spend in SaaS. As AI inference costs creep into COGS (e.g., paying model providers), expect margin trade-offs unless revenue productivity jumps.[23:18] Page 3: Nvidia’s cash machine & competitive vectorsWith extraordinary FCF conversion and lighter CapEx than peers, NVDA’s valuation premium draws support. Real competitive risk tilts toward in-house silicon at the clouds (GOOG/AMZN) rather than legacy CPU/GPU rivals.[26:49] Healthcare: M&A thaw, GLP-1 direct channels, and FDA twists Novartis buys Avidity Bio; patent cliffs nudge Big Pharma to replace pipelines via deals. Lilly’s direct channel gains traction (rumored lower out-of-pocket pricing could widen access), while FDA leadership changes and a Huntington’s therapy setback temper optimism. Vertex’s non-opioid analgesic sees early adoption in elective procedures despite payer frictions.[31:34] Next Week: TSMC & non-lithography upstartsTeaser for a TSMC deep dive and a look at a startup pursuing chipmaking beyond traditional lithography—potential implications for capex cycles and competitive moats.Thanks for listening! If this helped your investing process, subscribe, share, and grab the full Cash Flow Memo for all ~80 companies plus Exhibits A–C.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, an

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, we connect cash-flow mechanics to headlines across energy, technology, and healthcare. We cover the oil/gas setup, a pragmatic tour through Bitcoin’s history, AI chip supply chains, and a potential reset in U.S. drug pricing.[00:00] Intro (p.1)Welcome to Telltales with Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence. Download the weekly Cash Flow Memo to follow along with updated exhibits and company pages.[00:00] Disclaimer - Informational only—do your own work. No investment advice is offered or implied.[00:00:30] Exhibit C – Oil Fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two largest producers buoyed prices but the impulse is fading. With macro uncertainty and geopolitics in flux, the base case leans toward ~$60 oil, acknowledging wide error bars. Near-term, lower prices would pressure non-OPEC supply growth and could reset upstream equity entry points.[00:01:30] Exhibit B – Natural Gas & Power’26 strip nudged above $4 while the curve stays in modest backwardation. LNG volumes improve into ’25/’26, but U.S. power burn underperformed as higher gas prices pushed coal units harder. View: gas likely anchors closer to ~$4 than $3.50; for E&Ps, hold core positions and be patient adding on potential price-driven equity softness.[00:04:22] Exhibit A – U.S. Fiscal Picture (Exhibit A)Deficit could improve into 2026 on tariff receipts, spending restraint, and somewhat lower interest expense. Social Security ($1.65T est.) and Medicare ($1.20T est.) dwarf most line items while interest rivals defense. Goalpost: nudge Debt-to-GDP from ~102% toward the high-90s by 2027-28—directionality matters even if we don’t get back to pre-COVID levels.[00:07:23] Page 7 – Payments & Protocols: Visa/Mastercard Visa (~$21B FCF on $38B revs) and Mastercard ($15B on ~$30B) convert revenue to free cash at elite rates, long valued ~30× FCF (~3% yield). Litigation remains an overhang, but the duo exemplifies “cash flow over narratives.” Sets up a segue: can blockchains truly threaten these rails?[00:09:26] Blockchain History, Part 1 – BitcoinFrom DigiCash and the cypherpunk movement to Satoshi’s 2008 whitepaper, Bitcoin launched in 2009 as peer-to-peer electronic cash. Milestones: the Genesis “bank bailout” headline, 10,000-BTC pizza (2010), Silk Road adoption, Coinbase founded (2012), merchant uptake (2013–15), Bitcoin Cash hard fork (2017), and U.S. spot ETF debut (2024). Today, BTC functions more as a store of value than a retail payments rail—by design or by emergent use.[00:17:53] Oakcliff Sailing [00:20:42] Page 1 – Big Tech Roundup (AAPL/AMZN/GOOG/MSFT/TSLA) (p.1)Microsoft’s OpenAI stake is now set at ~27%, raising the question of future 10-Q disclosure detail. iPhone 17’s refresh catalyzes delayed upgrades; the software lift helps, but Apple’s services/software runway remains the bigger debate. Tesla beat on revenue but missed on profitability; strong cash flow, grid-scale batteries, and a Robo-Taxi/CyberCab ramp (including a rumored steering-wheel variant) dominated the call. OpenAI’s benefit corporation points $25B toward health—expect diagnostics and drug discovery to be early targets.[00:24:23] Page 3 – AI Chips & Foundry (NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML) Geopolitics and export policy swirl around Nvidia’s China exposure; strategically, keeping China on the Nvidia software stack reduces tech bifurcation risk. Nvidia’s Blackwell sales + bookings have surpassed ~$0.5T, but TSMC remains the bottleneck. TSMC reported ~39% profit growth and flagged AI wafer demand with a mid-40s CAGR; initial U.S. output (AZ) still requires advanced packaging in Taiwan—globalized, but incrementally reshored.[00:27:48] Healthcare News Express Scripts (Cigna’s PBM) plans to end the rebate model in 2028, moving to cost-plus pharmacy reimbursement with estimates of ~30% savings on branded drugs. This tacitly acknowledges PBM incentives have contributed to higher list prices; a shift could stabilize independent pharmacies and improve transparency.[00:28:45] What’s Next Next week: more blockchain—stablecoins, bank adoption, and collateral/security models. The week after: TSMC and venture-led attempts to challenge advanced chipmaking paradigms.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affili

SHOWNOTESA fast-paced tour through this week’s Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, natural gas, oil), a history of Broadcom’s rise from spinoff to $1.7T giant, timely healthcare shifts (FDA fast paths, DTP), and quick hits on Tesla, Apple, NVIDIA/AMD, and Netflix’s cash engine.[00:00] Intro (—)Mike, Jason, and Hunt set up the week’s Cash Flow Memo themes across energy, technology, and healthcare, and point listeners to the memo and exhibits.[00:00:20] Disclaimer (—)Standard “not investment advice” reminder; do your own work.[00:00:30] Exhibit C — Oil: weak prices & market share mathGeopolitical progress around the Gaza ceasefire reduces risk premia; Saudi policy tilts toward market share. Brent/WTI near ~$58 with a flat curve; oversupply could flip to contango. Hunt argues ~$50 oil isn’t sustainable versus decline curves, but normalization could take 12–18 months.[00:02:41] Exhibit B — U.S. Natural Gas: resilient supply, watch LNG/power Dry gas output hangs around ~106 (bcf/d context), supported by associated gas from the Permian. Power demand forecasts for 2026+ warrant caution; LNG and power market news are key swing variables for the strip.[00:03:15] Exhibit A — U.S. Government Finances: deficit outlook improves Deficit projections improve by roughly $400B amid talk of a full-year continuing resolution and tariff revenue changes. Rates path matters: FY26 interest cost modeled at ~3.5% of debt, with short-tenor Treasury financing potentially nudging the 10-year toward the low-3s. Policy mechanics (reconciliation/50 votes) and program trade-offs feature prominently.[00:07:31] Company Deep Dive — Broadcom (AVGO): from HP roots to $1.7T (p.2)Tracing lineage: HP components → Agilent (1999) → Avago (KKR/Silver Lake, 2005) → 2016 merger with Broadcom. Under Hock Tan, a disciplined M&A engine shifted mix toward software (CA Technologies, Symantec assets, VMware) while staying fabless in semis. AI data-center networking reignites hardware; the challenge now is finding needle-moving deals at $1.7T EV.[00:16:12] Healthcare — FDA’s “super-accelerated” reviews Nine first-wave reviews target serious unmet needs with 1–2 month timelines. A Regeneron gene therapy for genetic deafness shows 9/12 children regaining hearing—access could follow quickly if approved.[00:17:06] Healthcare — Pharma goes DTP (direct-to-patient) Genentech pilots direct sales for Rx flu therapies, fulfilled via Cost Plus Drug and Amazon Pharmacy. Same-day door delivery hints at a broader channel shift that compresses middlemen and meets patient convenience.[00:17:58] Healthcare — TrumpRx adds IVF meds (Merck), 80% discount Big list-to-cash gaps spotlight PBM spreads. If cash-pay platforms set a visible reference price, pressure escalates for Medicare/commercial plans to converge—potentially a snowball toward lower net drug pricing.[00:19:06] Next Week Teaser: Blockchain A candid, critical take is coming—why blockchain hasn’t worked (yet) and where it might.[00:19:23] Future of American Healthcare: thought experiment Could a Republican plan converge with parts of the Sanders wing on Medicare-for-all optionality and MFN pricing? The aim: bend U.S. healthcare from ~18–19% of GDP toward peer levels (~10–11%).[00:20:48] Page 1 — Tesla earnings tonight (p.1)Strong Q3 deliveries frame expectations; watch auto margins and the energy segment’s contribution to cash flow.[00:21:26] Page 1 — Apple iPhone 17 traction (p.1)OS progress lands well; iPhone “Air” China launch timing noted. Device is thinner/lighter yet larger-screened—appeal vs pocket-fit tradeoffs.[00:22:31] Page 3 — NVIDIA vs. China: demand still outruns supply (p.3)China restrictions damp direct sales, but global demand stays well above constrained supply. Data/workloads are portable; enforcement challenges suggest indirect access routes may persist.[00:24:06] Page 3 — AMD’s OpenAI lane (p.3)OpenAI’s announced 26GW data-center ambition stresses GPU supply and spurs hedging. NVIDIA sells at the rack level (networking + liquid cooling); AMD is building toward comparable systems—OpenAI may shoulder more integration to diversify.[00:25:52] Page 4 — Netflix: the cash-flow franchise flywheel (p.4)FCF ~$11B vs Disney’s ~$14B; reporting pivots underscore cash generation. A hit kids IP (“K-Pop Demon Hunters”) hints at a scalable franchise strategy—portfolio bets create room for outsized wins while maintaining margin discipline.[00:29:15] Wrap-up & What’s Next Back next week with blockchain and, soon after, a TSMC history session. Thanks for listening—share the memo and subscribe for the weekly cash-flow lens.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be

This episode blends near-term energy realities with a tour through Oracle’s history and its AI pivot—then zooms out to policy, trade, and the cash-flow engines dominating tech and payments.[00:00] Intro[00:00:20] Disclaimer[00:00:44] Exhibit C: Oil outlook Hunt notes Middle East détente reduces risk premia but isn’t bullish for prices near-term. With Saudi likely to defend share, oil feels “subdued”; if you own quality E&Ps, hold, but wait to add until/if crude dips into the $50s.[00:03:22] Exhibit B: Natural gas oversupplySummer heat underwhelmed and gas-fired power is flat YoY despite AI/data-center narratives; LNG strength offsets only so much. Hunt sees 2025 gas averaging ~$3.60 (vs. ~$2.40 in 2024), with Permian associated gas keeping supply sturdy and storage entering winter “full.”[00:05:19] Exhibit A: U.S. finances CBO puts the FY25 deficit near $1.8T vs. the memo’s $1.9T placeholder, with 2026 likely lower (potentially by ~$400B). Policy brinkmanship (continuing resolution fights) hasn’t hit markets yet—but it bears watching.[00:06:40] U.S.–China trade tension returns (Exhibit A)China’s Commerce Ministry tightens export license rules on critical minerals; U.S. rhetoric hardens (tariff talk). Hunt flags a tail-risk: deeper economic decoupling (chips/planes/soybeans), which capital markets might be under-pricing.[00:10:07] Oracle: the origin story (p. 2)Jason traces Oracle to Ellison/Miner/Oates, CIA contracts, and IBM’s relational DB research (System R) inspiring SQL’s commercialization. Early funding was tiny (~$2k + $50k contract), growth leaned on debt, and a ’90s sales-practice scare nearly sank the firm before it emerged stronger.[00:17:19] Cloud stumble to AI inflection (p. 2)Oracle lagged early cloud pricing models (per-core vs. elastic compute) but is now resurgent as AI lifts demand. A marquee OpenAI deal reportedly swelled backlog from ~$80B to >$400B, positioning OCI and Oracle DB squarely in AI training/serving stacks.[00:19:41] Do LLMs change databases? (p. 2)Jason frames LLMs as “compression” layers over enterprise data; long-run, natural-language querying could obviate parts of SQL workflows. Oracle’s bet: be the infra and data platform where that future gets built.[00:20:33] Next week: Broadcom Teaser for another “history of” segment; TSMC likely to follow soon after.[00:20:49] Healthcare: California reins in PBMs New law curbs steering to affiliated pharmacies, mandates rebate pass-through to patients, and blocks exclusivity with drugmakers. The team sees momentum toward cleaner economics for consumers.[00:21:40] TrumpRx + AstraZeneca; DTC momentum AstraZeneca joins TrumpRx, and ~90% of pharma execs are evaluating direct-to-consumer fulfillment—potentially disintermediating PBMs over time.[00:22:18] Page 1 check-in: AAPL/AMZN/GOOG/MSFT/TSLA (p. 1)A quiet headline week overall. Notables: Apple succession chatter (post-Jeff Williams); Amazon’s “AgentCore” to standardize AI agent development on AWS; Microsoft secures hundreds of thousands of GPUs via a European “Neo Cloud” partner model—shifting CapEx optics while locking in capacity.[00:24:35] CapEx optics, Nvidia’s dominance, TSMC’s role (pp. 1–3)True AI CapEx outstrips reported figures when you include off-balance-sheet partner commitments. Nvidia’s equity value ($4.5T) towers over megacaps, but none of this runs without TSMC ($1.5T; ~$30B CapEx).[00:27:06] TSMC: 2nm pricing & growth (p. 3)2nm wafer pricing rises a measured ~10–20% (vs. 50% feared), preserving customer loyalty. Monthly prints show ~35% YoY revenue growth—evidence of unrelenting AI/foundry demand.[00:27:48] Payments compounding: Visa/Mastercard (+PayPal) (p. 7)Cash-flow engines: Visa ($38B rev / $21B FCF) and Mastercard ($30B / $15B FCF) keep compounding double-digit top and FCF lines—rivaled only by Nvidia’s margins at hyperscale.[00:28:44] Blockchain as a threat to networks? (p. 7)Jason sees limited displacement risk today; real-world rails still require dispute resolution (e.g., Coinbase adding rollback)—a philosophical break from immutable chains and a practical nod to traditional payment protections.[00:30:28] WrapThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this inf

SHOWNOTESA brisk, data-driven run through Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, Natural Gas, Oil), followed by a condensed “History of OpenAI,” semis capacity pinch points, a Tesla check-in, and timely healthcare policy updates.[00:00] Intro [00:47] Exhibit C: Oil—Geopolitics & The Abraham Accords PathDiscussion of a proposed Gaza plan reportedly backed by regional governments and the potential for broader normalization—implications for oil risk premia and global supply/demand. The team underscores how political stabilization could pressure crude pricing while reshaping Middle East dynamics.[02:25] Exhibit B: Natural Gas—Differentials & Permian Activity Waha basis blowouts (−$6 to −$7) tied to maintenance heading to the Gulf Coast; relief expected as maintenance ends. Team notes curtailments in the Permian and how depressed Waha prices could temper gas supply growth despite a longer-term ~108 bcf/d 2026 view.[03:51] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Finances—Regular Order vs. CRs All 12 House appropriations bills passed; several in conference with the Senate. If completed, “regular order” could be a real fiscal process improvement; timing risk remains around near-term pay cycles and political tactics.[06:54] The History of OpenAI From 2015 nonprofit roots to capped-profit restructuring in 2019, Microsoft’s early backing, and the GPT-1→2→3 progression culminating in ChatGPT’s breakout adoption. The hosts highlight governance tension, talent churn, and the compute arms race driving massive capex, alongside OpenAI’s push into consumer and enterprise features.[19:02] Next Week’s History: Oracle—From Cash Machine to Capex Engine (p. 2)Teaser for Oracle’s pivot into massive AI infrastructure spend, its OpenAI linkage, and whether financing can keep pace with ambition.[20:16] Semis Stack & The Compute Bottleneck (NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML) (p. 3)Page 3 spotlight: NVDA leadership vs. AMD incentives, Intel’s moves, and why TSMC’s process capacity is the current “choke point.” The crew argues TSMC’s pricing power is underexercised relative to its moat and strategic position.[23:07] Tesla: Model Y Trim, FSD v14, and Product Roadmap Expectations (pp. 10–11 if applicable)Market hoped for a ~$30k EV; instead a lower-cost Model Y variant and ongoing robo-taxi focus. FSD v14 early feedback looks improved; rumors swirl (Roadster, new propulsion/downforce concepts), but capital markets still weigh valuation vs. cash generation.[26:16] Healthcare News: TrumpRx Mechanics & Medicare Math (Exhibit A; Healthcare pages)Refined estimate places Medicare Part D government spend near ~$140B (older figure), with potential savings in the ~$70B range depending on design. Key operational unknowns (coverage vs. out-of-pocket) and how thresholds interact with the $2,000 OOP max.[27:21] Tariffs on Patented Pharma & CDMO Workarounds (Healthcare pages)100% tariff headline risk appears mitigable—onshoring or contracting U.S. CDMOs can offset. Given high gross margins post-R&D, the sector sighs relief versus harsher scenarios.[28:01] The Case for the Almighty Dollar (Exhibit A)If spending levels stabilize and healthcare growth moderates, the U.S. deficit could trend from ~$1.9T toward ~$1.4–1.5T. Hosts contrast U.S. trajectories with other majors; note gold strength vs. a firming dollar as markets reassess fiscal momentum.[30:32] Outro Thanks for listening! If the episode helped your investing framework, share it with a friend and grab the latest Cash Flow Memo for all 80+ company updates and Exhibits A–C.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESA brisk tour through oil, gas, and U.S. fiscal mechanics, followed by a biotech history chapter and a deep dive on NVIDIA’s sustained dominance. We close with a big healthcare development—“Trump-RX”—and quick hits from Harrow Health’s investor day.[00:00] Intro [00:28] Exhibit C – Oil: $62 is Doing Its Job Hunt frames today’s oil tape: production is rolling off in the U.S., OPEC, and non-OPEC; geopolitical thawing could keep prices soft near term. With Saudi capacity around 12 mb/d and surplus capacity trending toward ~2.5 mb/d by 2026, a “normally supplied” market implies oil trades in the $70s—though swoons into the $50s can happen on the way there.[02:05] Exhibit B – Natural Gas, Power Burn & LNG Gas underperformed, but storage is robust. Power burn was flat ’25 vs ’24 despite “AI, AI” chatter—a surprise tied to coal plant life-extension and a near-term lull in new wind/solar coming online. LNG demand stepped up this year; if power burn resumes climbing, a durable ~$4 gas band becomes more plausible.[03:22] Exhibit A – U.S. Cash Flow & the Shutdown The team walks through the continuing resolution dynamics: House bills vs 60-vote Senate reality, daily vote tactics, and the case for finishing all 12 appropriations. Beyond the political scoreboard, the focus is on process: budgeting via CRs isn’t how the system should work—and markets will parse timing of data releases like jobs.[05:44] Biopharma History (Part 4): From Genzyme to Monoclonals Jason spotlights Genzyme’s rare-disease model (boosted by the Orphan Drug Act), the Human Genome Project’s 13-year blueprint, and the 1996 Dolly milestone foreshadowing cell reprogramming. Genentech’s late-90s antibodies (Rituxan, Herceptin) ushered in targeted oncology—monoclonals remain the highest-grossing class today.[12:09] Next Week: OpenAI—A Controversial History Programming note: the crew will tackle OpenAI’s origin story and flashpoints next week, with Oracle and NVIDIA history episodes likely to follow.[14:19] NVIDIA’s Moat: Cash, CUDA, Cadence (p. 3)Hunt updates the NVIDIA page: zero net debt, >$50B cash, ~$85B run-rate FCF on ~$170B revenue, and modest capex vs hyperscalers. Mike explains why CUDA’s ecosystem and annual product cadence (powered by ~$15B R&D) create a TCO advantage so strong that even “free” AMD GPUs lose in practice; the window for rivals narrows as workloads stay variable.[21:20] Post-Break: ASICs vs. AMD & What’s After LLMs Jason notes the market’s pivot: when buyers do switch from NVIDIA, they’re more often going custom (ASIC/TPU) than to AMD. He adds that frontier researchers expect architectures beyond today’s LLMs to power the next step in reasoning—another reason flexibility favors NVIDIA’s stack for now.[22:43] Healthcare Shake-Up: “Trump-RX” and PBMs A new Medicare direct-to-consumer platform (Pfizer as first partner) could remove PBMs from many transactions, standardize pricing, and simplify Part D decisions. The panel discusses “gross-to-net” dynamics (often ~50% industrywide) and why UnitedHealth’s PBM economics could face pressure; potential annual savings to Medicare could be very large.[27:25] Harrow Health Investor Day: Buying Back Melt Harrow fully acquires the rest of Melt (anesthetic asset) for $8M upfront plus royalties. The team praises the capital allocation arc—spin out in the lean years, re-acquire after Phase 3 success once cash flows stabilize—highlighting optionality beyond ophthalmology (e.g., dentistry).[28:41] Wrap-Up & Next Week Sign-off with a reminder to check the memo. Next episode: OpenAI’s history—then likely Oracle and NVIDIA deep dives.Thanks for listening! If this episode helped clarify markets, share it with a friend and subscribe. Grab the Cash Flow Memo for all exhibits and the ~80-company financials.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

The Cashflow MemoDownloadSHOWNOTESA fast-moving tour across energy, technology, and healthcare: oil spare capacity looks set to tighten, natural gas loses its backwardation, DC politics and immigration policy enter the chat, we revisit Genentech’s beginnings, and then unpack Apple, Oracle/Broadcom, and NVIDIA through a cash-flow lens.Stick around for a sailing community shout-out from Oakcliff and a healthcare segment weighing Tylenol headlines against mixed evidence.[00:00] Intro[00:19] Disclaimer[00:26] Exhibit C — Oil: spare capacity on track to shrinkHunt walks through surplus crude capacity by country (Saudi, UAE, etc.) and argues that by next year the cushion could slip back to ~2.5 mb/d. With demand growth modest, geopolitics (Ukraine, Iran) and the “$62 oil did its magic” supply response suggest the window for sub-$50 oil may have passed.[03:13] Exhibit B — Natural Gas: futures tone weakensBackwardation is gone; later-dated gas sits around ~$3.95 (’26), with a ’25 average ~ $2.65 and prompt near ~$3.10. Supply ticked down when prices averaged ~$2.40–$2.75, but rebounds in ’25 (Permian leads; Waha even flipping negative). Despite AI power buzz, gas-fired demand has flattened as coal plants linger and wind/solar come online.[05:35] Exhibit A — DC budget brinkmanship & policy crosscurrentsHouse passes a short extension; Senate dynamics keep shutdown risk alive around October 1 and again into Thanksgiving without a broader deal. Conversation turns to a White House move to hike H-1B employer application fees from ~$2,500 toward ~$100,000—raising questions about talent, wages, and whether price hikes would throttle volumes or better filter for “best and brightest.”[11:12] Biopharma History (Part 3): Genentech, insulin & the tools that unlocked biotechJason traces Boyer/Cohen’s 1973 gene-splicing breakthrough and Genentech’s path from somatostatin to human insulin (Humulin) and a blockbuster 1980 IPO alongside peers like Biogen and Amgen. Mike spotlights PCR’s origin story—Kary Mullis’s unconventional inspiration—and how DNA amplification reshaped diagnostics, forensics, and research.[17:33] Oakcliff SailingFrom Newport’s Sailing Museum to fundraising for sails and a long-term home in Oyster Bay, Dawn Riley shares updates and an invitation to visit, support, and get involved.[19:52] Healthcare Update — Tylenol headlines vs. mixed evidenceTrump/HHS draw a headline-grabbing link between prenatal Tylenol use and autism. The crew weighs the literature (often ADHD-focused, mixed conclusions), real-world usage since the 1950s, and pregnancy tradeoffs when Tylenol is the only approved painkiller—underscoring how nuance gets lost in big-policy moments.[22:09] Page 1 — The case for $AAPLHunt contrasts hyperscaler CapEx (Amazon ~$90B; Alphabet/Microsoft $65B each) with Apple ($12B) and asks whether Apple can win via on-device/app-centric AI without giant model spend. Jason, a hardware/software skeptic of late, notes a packed Apple Store and a rare OS update that actually feels faster—hinting at green shoots on experience even as security/AI integration remain hard problems.[25:17] Page 2 — Broadcom vs. Oracle: cash flow, CapEx, and OpenAI exposureOracle is running heavy CapEx with negative FCF tied to AI data centers and a massive OpenAI compute commitment; leadership shifts elevate cloud execs. Broadcom, by contrast, throws off FCF with comparatively little CapEx and benefits when hyperscalers deploy non-NVIDIA accelerators. The debate: is Oracle’s risk/reward compelling—or just risky?[27:57] Page 3 — NVIDIA’s lead & the demand questionNVIDIA’s equity value (~$4.4T) and striking FCF margins prompt the sustainability question. Mike thinks supply execution looks solid—each new chip lowers cost-per-token and sustains ROI—but demand relies on platform wars, funding cycles, and whether value accrues beyond NVIDIA. If financing tightens, who blinks first—and do balance-sheet giants like Google gain relative advantage?How did you like this week’s Telltales? Your feedback helps me make this great.Loved | Great | Good | Meh | Bad | ….. If you liked this post from Telltales, why not share it?ShareThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no li

SHOWNOTESThis episode tackles the week’s cash-flow movers across energy, tech, and healthcare—then time-travels through biopharma’s biggest breakthroughs. We close with practical EV takes, Big Tech updates, and why Mars might be more interesting than the headlines suggest.[00:00] Intro [00:30] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand IEA’s latest revision lifts 2025 demand growth to ~0.7–0.8 mb/d (vs. ~0.4–0.5), implying the surplus could tighten from ~3.3 mb/d toward ~2.0—mostly in Saudi spare capacity (10.1 mb/d run-rate vs. ~12 mb/d capability). Futures sit near ~$62 as macro/geopolitical risk (Russia distillates, Iran supply) caps downside but keeps the curve flat in the low-60s.[03:34] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand/Supply Production hovered near ~106 while power burn stayed frustratingly flat (~37.8→38.5). Spot printed $3.04 last Thursday, with a contangoed strip around ~$3.83–$3.90 for 2026—disappointing versus the old ~$4 anchor given modest data-center uplift to date.[04:38] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Finances & Rates Congress passed a CR to Nov 20; Democrats seek Medicaid restorations, making a shutdown plausible. The Fed delivered a quarter-point cut—arriving “too late” in Hunt’s view—after holding steady post last fall’s 50 bps move; politics around timing get a candid airing.[06:50] Biopharma History: From Penicillin to mRNA Alexander Fleming’s accidental penicillin find (1928/29) led to wartime scale-up (Pfizer’s deep-tank fermentation; doses >2M by 1943) and a “Golden Age of Antibiotics” (streptomycin for TB, tetracycline). Genentech’s 1980s recombinant insulin marks the modern biotech inflection; BioNTech’s mRNA pivot shows how far we’ve come—even as viruses and antibiotic resistance remain unsolved frontiers.[17:16] Oakcliff Sailing Community update and Annapolis Boat Show plans; proceeds benefit programs via racingcalendar.org.[19:29] Page 1: Mega-Cap Check-In Quick scan of the “Page 1” five. Tesla highlights include Musk buying ~$1B of shares and Nevada approval to test robotaxis; Amazon FC tour preview tees up automation talk; Microsoft’s OpenAI arrangements continue to solidify.[19:44] Apple: Translation AirPods & the AR Path (p. 1)AirPods Pro 3 impress—live in-ear translation hints at Apple’s real-world AR strategy while iPhone “Air” appeals to China’s thin-phone fad and preps a foldable future. New “liquid glass” UI lands better in hand than on stage; the market’s “not enough AI” reaction misses the iteration-to-platform arc.[21:51] Microsoft & OpenAI: Deal Momentum (p. 1)No big surprises—just steady progress that reinforces Azure’s AI gravity and inference economics, with edge vs. cloud tradeoffs a watch-item.[22:28] Oracle: Building AI ‘Factories’ (p. 2)Larry Ellison leans into capacity for inference—Oracle wants to be a go-to “AI factory” supplier. Jason flags an overbuild risk if inference migrates to edge devices, but legacy database strengths gain new relevance in the AI era.[25:10] Page 3: NVIDIA & China Strategy China signals intent to reduce NVIDIA reliance while simultaneously pressing a prior remedy about uninterrupted supply—talk vs. action tension. Bottom line: NVDA’s constraint is still TSMC wafer output; global demand ex-China remains plenty.[27:26] Life on Mars? NASA reports organic carbon and iron compounds consistent with microbial biosignatures; alternative non-biologic origins remain unconvincing. Sample-return logistics could unlock definitive answers—surprising this didn’t dominate the news cycle.[29:09] Tesla Model Y Door Safety (p. 1)Emergency latches exist but aren’t intuitive, especially rear seats; several accidents spotlight the issue. Expect regulatory pressure for a clearly mechanical primary interior release.[30:16] Used EVs: Who Should Buy What? (p. 1)Charging at home is the gating factor; in California it’s often a no-brainer. For used, Tesla’s deeper field data and software stack make it the safer pick; typical battery life guidance ~150k miles, with many vehicles exceeding that—non-Tesla software still lags.Thanks for listening! If this helped you think in cash-flow, share the episode and grab the full memo for charts, exhibits, and ~80 company updates. Subscribe so you never miss the next deep dive.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. T

SHOWNOTESA brisk, cash-flow-first tour through energy, technology, and healthcare: oil and gas realities, the federal balance sheet, big labor revisions, and the AI build-out—plus biotech’s backstory and fresh FDA/advertising policy moves.[00:00] Intro (n/a)[00:19] DisclaimerReminder that the episode is informational only and not investment advice. Listeners should do their own work and assume no guarantee of completeness or accuracy.[00:30] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Oil pricing “stuck” near the low-60s amid geopolitical tensions and weak macro catalysts. Spare capacity is drifting lower mainly from decline curves and reduced capex; U.S. activity (rigs/completions) is down, with 2025 U.S. output guided lower and 2026 ~12.7–12.8 mb/d. New projects look unlikely at current prices, keeping a floor under crude absent major macro breaks.[04:22] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand/Supply Despite questions about recovery to $70s oil, weaker demand growth—especially in China and Asia—tempers the upside. The team doesn’t see a $50 handle as likely given supply dynamics and geopolitical backdrop, but also isn’t banking on a quick return to higher prices.[05:06] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Cash Flow Targeting progress rather than perfection: discussion of trimming the deficit toward ~$1–1.5T over the next couple years versus COVID-era blowouts. Debt-to-GDP math: if deficits stabilize, the ratio can flatten near ~102% before drifting down. Expect noise as Congress wrestles with funding via continuing resolutions to avoid shutdown-style disruptions.[07:55] Jobs Revision: The Labor Data Reality CheckRoughly ~1M jobs revised away (~76k/month on average), implying two negative months and several weak ones last year. Vanguard’s vantage via 401(k) enrollments/contribution trends hinted at a softer market earlier; poor inputs complicate Fed timing and reinforce criticism that policy cuts ran “too late.”[10:14] Biopharma History (10-Minute Sprint) From ancient fermentation and early antibiotic uses to Pasteur’s germ theory, vaccination experiments, and Mendel’s genetics—laying the groundwork for modern biopharma. Clarifies “biotech” vs “pharma” and notes this series will span multiple episodes.[17:25] Page 1: Tesla’s $1T Pay Package (p. 1)Long-dated, “outlandish-but-plannable” milestones: $8T valuation, robotaxis, humanoid robots. Hosts lean over 50/50 on operational targets over a 10-year window; valuation ultimately rests with markets. Governance sidenote: Delaware ruling, Texas reincorporation, and how a prior plan could affect today’s package.[21:27] Page 2: Software—CRM / NOW / SNOW / ORCL / AVGO (p. 2)Oracle pops ~30% on AI-related backlog/commentary (notably OpenAI). Debate: Can capital markets really fund another ~$100B for OpenAI? One view: software innovation may pivot, forcing a spending rethink; another: token demand far exceeds supply (HBM bottlenecks, NVIDIA shipping everything, hyperscalers/“neo-clouds” deals), so pricing power and demand migration across providers (MSFT/Gemini/etc.) sustain the buildout.[26:03] Sponsor Break: Oakcliff SailingQuick update from the water: race results, training, and a fall foiling series—follow along on social feeds.[27:44] Healthcare News Roundup Executive order seeks to curb pharma ads by reverting to pre-1997-style disclosure—potential hit to legacy media and to DTC channels that bypass PBMs. Policy fragmentation on vaccines at state levels draws criticism. FDA moves to accept single-arm studies for ultra-rare diseases ([31:00] Sign-Off Thanks for listening! If this helped your investing process, subscribe, share with a friend, and grab the latest Cash Flow Memo to follow the numbers each week.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week we open with the Google antitrust decision, then dive into Exhibits C (Oil), B (Natural Gas), and A (U.S. finances) before a tech deep-dive on AI capacity, TPUs vs GPUs, and close with healthcare policy shifts.[00:00] Intro[00:38] DisclaimerGeneral investing discussion only; do your own work. Views are the hosts’ alone.[00:51] Exhibit C – Oil (Exhibit C)Geopolitics keeps crude “stuck” around $62–64 with a flat curve (no backwardation). Spare capacity from Saudi/UAE plus tepid demand (+~0.4 mb/d 2H) cap prices; at these levels, U.S. completions slow and ~3 mb/d global surplus could burn off over ~18 months. U.S. output near ~13 mb/d (from ~11.9 in ’22) likely flattens.[03:07] Exhibit B – Natural Gas Near-month gas dips under $3 after holding $4–4.25 for ’25–’26; shoulder-month seasonality adds pressure. Dry gas production trending ~108 (from ~106) looks entrenched; power demand is surprisingly flat (coal retirements slower), while LNG rises—netting out to softer pricing.[04:37] Exhibit A – U.S. Government Cash Flow Budget brinkmanship keeps Exhibit A in the headlines into Oct. Targeting a deficit move from just under $2T to ~$1.5T would be progress, with $1T the real goal. Ten-year rate resilience matters; if deficits bend down and debt/GDP stabilizes, the U.S. could outperform Europe/Japan/China.[05:28] Macro: Rates, Dollar & GoldBeyond the policy rate, markets set the rest—carry dynamics have limits without adding risk. Central banks now hold more gold (by value) than USD reserves, framing the dollar as the “least bad currency.” AI-driven productivity could help “grow our way” out of deficits.[09:08] Google Antitrust: Defaults Without ExclusivityThe ruling labels Google an illegal monopoly in search but stops short of break-ups; exclusive search deals must end, yet paid defaults continue (Apple’s ~$20B+/yr remains in play). Google may need to license index/interaction data at marginal cost, potentially aiding competitors (e.g., OpenAI). Non-exclusive deals could cut Google’s payments—or invite a Meta bid to become the iPhone’s AI-first gateway (with Apple’s 30% app economics inside the App Store). Parallel talks: Siri ↔ Gemini; Meta exploring Google capacity underscores a broader compute crunch.[16:22] TPU vs GPU: Who Wins Inference?China’s domestic stack (e.g., homegrown accelerators) plus energy policy could brute-force parity despite lower-spec chips. Google’s vertically integrated TPUs may lower inference cost; NVIDIA counters with rapid cadence and an inference-tilted roadmap (GB300, “Rubin” series). Ultimately, all-in “cost per token” decides share.[20:13] Healthcare News: Labels, SNAP & CDCTexas moves to flag ingredients banned abroad on food labels, restricts SNAP “junk food,” and expands nutrition education—watch for copycat states or FDA action. CDC leadership churn sparks debate; quick course-correction can be healthy if fit is wrong. Broader reviews (and even autism-cause inquiries) spotlight a needed return to open scientific debate.[24:36] Next Week: Biotech History TeaseFrom penicillin back to early natural-product hunts—when scientists literally brought home dirt to find new drugs. A fun look at the explorer mindset that seeded modern biotech.[26:28] Outro & DisclaimerStandard disclosures; information believed reliable but not guaranteed. Hosts may hold positions mentioned.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESA fast-moving episode: Hunt opens with Exhibits C/B/A (oil, gas, U.S. finances), then we sprint through a crisp history of AI from Turing to Transformers before closing on healthcare—Berkshire’s UNH stake and how MFN drug pricing pressures PBMs.[00:00] Intro (—)Welcome to Telltales with Mike, Jason, and Hunt. Grab the weekly Cash Flow Memo and follow along as we hit energy, technology, and healthcare through a cash-flow lens.[00:57] Disclaimer (—)Informational only; do your own work. No investment advice.[01:22] Exhibit C: World Oil—Supply, Sanctions & the Risk Premium (Exhibit C)Iranian output is running stronger than assumed while sanctions dynamics on Russia/India/China and “shadow fleet” enforcement remain key swing factors. Hunt frames oil pricing as fundamentals plus a $5–$20/bbl risk premium, shaped by geopolitical uncertainty and sanction compliance pathways (e.g., ship classing, SWIFT visibility). Saudi policy and the restoration of curtailed OPEC barrels are tracked against this risk overlay.[07:10] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas & Producer Cash Flows (Exhibit B; p. 11)Strip prices are modest vs last year, and Hunt notes how lower commodity realizations cascade into lower producer cash flow. Capital spending tends to track cash generation; he flags names on p. 11 where production rose despite tighter cash (EOG, Magnolia).[07:56] Exhibit C (cont.): U.S. Shale & OPEC Strategy (Exhibit C)U.S. crude peaked near 13.3 mbpd in ’24 and could drift lower if prices hang in the low-$60s. With OPEC+ restoring prior curtailments and Saudi’s voluntary cuts unwinding, non-U.S. and U.S. declines may eventually absorb surplus capacity—unless geopolitical risk fades abruptly.[10:12] Exhibit A: U.S. Finances—Deficit Path, “All Other,” and Tariffs (Exhibit A)Baseline shows the deficit improving from ~$1.9T to $1.5T, still elevated vs pre-COVID. “All other” outlays ballooned post-COVID; trimming continues to be the lever. Medicaid ($600B federal share) has been flat; tariffs add revenue at the margin, though sky-high projections are debated.[13:21] Rates, the Fed, and the Long End (Exhibit A)Debate: Should the Fed cut soon? Hunt expects policy rates drifting toward ~3–3.25% next year while the 10-year could stay ~4.5–4.75% given heavy Treasury supply and QT runoff. Jason worries about services inflation and sees labor data stronger beneath the surface; rate-cut timing remains contentious.[18:43] Software History (Part 7): From Turing to Transformers (—)Jason and Mike trace AI’s arc: 1950s Turing test; rule-based “expert systems”; 1990s machine learning and Deep Blue’s hybrid approach; then 2012’s ImageNet breakthrough as GPUs turbo-charged neural nets; finally 2017’s Transformer architecture underpinning today’s LLMs. Big idea: the future blends deterministic (classical) and probabilistic (AI) programming—knowing when to use each unlocks real productivity.[31:53] Healthcare Quick Hit: Berkshire Buys $UNH (p. 19)UnitedHealth pops onto the memo as large investors disclose stakes. The crew riffs on whether a Berkshire position could nudge governance and strategy—even as skepticism about UNH’s model lingers.[32:48] MFN Pricing & the PBM Squeeze (p. 19)“Most favored nation” pressure pushes pharma to sell more directly, compressing the gross-to-net gap historically captured by PBM rebates. If PBMs lose take-rate and transparency rises, margin structures across the channel could reset.[33:50] MAHA, FDA, and Bending the Cost Curve (p. 19)Positive read-throughs on FDA process changes; big win is healthier inputs (nutrition) that reduce downstream “sick-care” spend. The team sees a potential inflection toward better outcomes per dollar.[35:14] Next Week & Wrap (—)Biotech history is teed up for an upcoming 10-minute segment. Keep an eye out for stitched “software history” and “chip history” compilation episodes in the feed.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESA wide-ranging tour this week: oil demand vs. spare capacity, U.S. gas and fiscal tracks, and the cloud era’s security shocks that boosted both AWS and CPU demand. We close on healthcare policy, Intel’s maneuvering, Nvidia’s China fee, and what Snowflake/Salesforce/ServiceNow signal for AI ROI.[00:00] IntroMike sets the table for another 30-minute sprint through energy, tech, and healthcare, and points listeners to the Cash Flow Memo for exhibits and company pages.[00:00] DisclaimerStandard reminder: informational only; do your own work.[00:00] World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt notes oil “hanging in at 60” as OPEC+ countries aren’t meeting raised quotas—implying true spare capacity may be overstated. Demand growth has cooled: 2025 is up only ~0.5 mb/d vs. +1.4 mb/d in 2023, with China the swing factor (15.2 → 16.1 → 16.2 mb/d). This tempers bullishness even as quota compliance lags.[02:08] U.S. Gas Demand/Supply (Exhibit B)U.S. gas output averaged ~106 bcfd in 2025 and is running ~107; 2026’s 108 looks plausible. Gas-for-power use is flat YoY after years of +~1.5 bcfd growth, with fewer coal retirements and more solar capacity changing the stack. Policy/tax-credit shifts could slow new wind/solar adds, keeping an eye on balances.[03:11] U.S. Fiscal Picture (Exhibit A)Projected deficit improvement from ~$1.9T to ~$1.5T in FY26 reflects lower rates, modest spending trims, and targeted savings. Near-term risk is a pre-Oct 1 continuing resolution. Mike flags BLS job revisions softening the labor picture, and Hunt notes markets will parse the Fed Chair’s Jackson Hole speech for a potential 25 bp path.[05:43] Software History Part 6: Cloud ComputingJason traces AWS’s 2006 origin story (holiday-driven overbuild → rentable compute → managed services), plus REST and the API economy making zero-CapEx startups viable. OAuth tokens improved security UX but created token-theft risk; Spectre/Meltdown forced software mitigations that slowed CPUs ~10–20%—pushing some customers to buy more compute and organically lifting AWS spend.[13:32] AWS Segment Breakout & Lessons (p. 1)Hunt recalls the period when AWS was “other” before driving a re-rating as its profits eclipsed the legacy retail engine. The takeaway: durable, high-margin infra with years of head start can reset how the market values a conglomerate’s sum of parts.[15:04] AWS Moat & Switching Costs (p. 1)Mike and Jason discuss AWS’s growth and high switching costs; once landed, enterprise workloads tend to stay. Anecdotes include a CIA contract where AWS beat IBM on perceived security despite higher price, underscoring trust and managed security as part of the moat.[18:00] Healthcare News & Policy (p. 15, 19, 20)Items include the “Patients Deserve Price Tags Act” (hospital price transparency) and FDA disclosure trends (more CRL data) that could train LLMs and compress regulatory timelines. Noted too: an Eli Lilly exec voicing support for MFN dynamics to realize better EU pricing rather than U.S. cuts.[19:47] Memo p.3: Intel—Governance, Strategy, and Scale (p. 3)Hunt and Mike recap leadership scrutiny around China ties and a White House visit aiming to stabilize plans. Intel’s 10-Q flags that proceeding on the next leading-edge node likely requires a cost-sharing anchor customer—else more TSMC outsourcing. Scale economics dominate; policy levers (ownership stakes, tariffs) may be used to bridge the gap.[23:03] Nvidia’s China Fee & Industrial Policy (p. 3)Mike notes a 15% fee on Nvidia chips sold into China; Hunt/Jason debate authority, goals, and realpolitik (e.g., rare earths). The crux: keeping China dependent on Western silicon while managing leakage of high-end parts (H100/Blackwell) vs. allowing “dumbed-down” SKUs.[26:14] Tech Updates: Tesla, Blackwell TCO, and AI in SaaS (p. 3-4)Tesla launches a six-seat Model Y variant. Early reads suggest GB200 data-center TCO ~1.6× H100, so performance must scale accordingly to justify ROI. Salesforce appears slow to commercialize AI externally even as Benioff touts 1/3 of internal work done by AI; ServiceNow cites ~5% opex reduction with AI features gaining traction.[29:12] What Does Snowflake Do (for AI)? (p. 4)Mike/Jason explain Snowflake’s role unifying messy enterprise data (e.g., Salesforce) for BI and now AI—becoming the “source of truth” and a natural enclave to run/training workflows across clouds. Dirty upstream data can bottleneck AI adoption, which helps explain Salesforce’s challenges and Snowflake’s positioning.[31:22] Wrap & Next WeekThe team plans to extend software history and compare Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake’s AI monetization paths. Stay tuned for deeper dives on AI ROI across the enterprise stack.Closing: If you found this helpful, grab the full Cash Flow Memo (with Exhibits A–C and company pages) and share the episode with a friend. Questions for the hosts? Drop them in the comments for next week’s mailbag.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational pur

SHOWNOTESA fast tour across energy, technology history, and healthcare—then a spirited debate on Tesla’s path: robotaxis or humanoid robots. Plus: where oil and gas balances sit now, what built Web 2.0, and why some healthcare names look interesting on cash flow.[00:00] Intro Welcome to Telltales with Mike, Jason, and Hunt, setting up a deep dive into energy, technology, and healthcare with the companion Cash Flow Memo. Quick reminder: this conversation is for informational purposes only.[00:00] Disclaimer Standard investment disclaimer on doing your own work and limitations of the information shared.[00:00] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt frames oil as a macro story: a cordial Trump–Putin meeting likely won’t yield a Ukraine ceasefire, keeping sanctions risk—and prices—elevated. Saudi output is marked up, Russia down; spare capacity sits near 3 mb/d. OPEC’s demand growth looks optimistic vs. the memo’s ~0.5 mb/d step-up, and the curve has flattened with less backwardation. Base case: WTI hovering in the low-to-mid $60s for now.[02:49] Exhibit B: U.S. Natural Gas Supply/Demand (Exhibit B)Gas is “in a swoon”: 2026 pricing hangs near ~$4 while the prompt month slides toward ~$3, as dry gas production ticks from ~106 to ~108 bcf/d. Associated gas from the Permian surprises to the upside; Gulf Coast hub pricing has even averaged under $1 at times, signaling localized oversupply. Expectations of lower Permian activity didn’t dent gas as much as hoped.[04:17] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Finances (Exhibit A)Deficit glidepath discussed: ~$1.9T this fiscal year toward ~$1.5T next year, aided by tariff/“excise & other” revenues and some spending flattening. Debt held by the public sits ~102% of GDP vs. ~81% pre-COVID (2019); bending that ratio down would be a major achievement. Musk’s provocative view on trimming the deficit by ~$1T is cited directionally.[06:28] Agenda & SegueThe crew carves out time for two threads: software history leading to modern AI, and a healthcare check-in before closing on Tesla.[06:45] Software History: Web 2.0 & the LAMP StackJason tracks the move from Web 1.0 to user-generated Web 2.0: blogs, wikis, YouTube, MySpace/Facebook. Google’s PageRank shift—links and probability (Markov chains) over keyword counts—reshaped discovery. The LAMP stack (Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP) plus permissive OSS licensing let startups ship dynamic apps cheaply and consistently. Proprietary stacks (e.g., .NET) faced friction from licensing and per-core pricing, nudging adoption toward open source.[16:22] Healthcare News & Stock Updates (pp. 15, 19)A surprise FDA leadership twist gets a mention. Harrow’s earnings show an inflection toward profitability: early data points suggest Vivi prescriptions outpacing Miebo among adopters, and another franchise growing >60% YoY with focus on retina practices. GLP-1 pills disappoint at Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Vertex research results were mixed, but the core CF franchise underpins valuation comfort. Lantheus draws lessons on management change, capital allocation, and now screens cheap (7–8× FCF) with potential strategic interest.[20:54] Sponsor: Oakcliff Sailing Update Dawn checks in from the road with regatta results, upcoming events, and where to find race coverage on Oakcliff’s Facebook page.[22:01] Robots vs. Robotaxis: The Tesla Debate (p. 1)Is Tesla’s trillion-plus valuation driven more by robotaxis or humanoid robots? Jason sees robotaxis arriving sooner; Mike argues humanoids may be closer than consensus. Training data is a bottleneck for general-purpose robots; roads have clearer rules than “the world.” If Tesla can deliver ~$0.25/mile robotaxi costs, mass adoption could crush car ownership economics. Musk’s claim that Tesla could surpass Apple’s value is weighed against timelines: it likely takes a decade—and a lot of autonomy deployed—to get there. Waymo may be the other credible FSD player, but Tesla’s commercialization path looks stronger after shifting from rules-based to deep learning.[33:13] Wrap & Tease They’ll return next week to finish software/AI history and dig into chip stocks. Closing reminders and standard disclaimer.Thanks for listening—grab the Cash Flow Memo for full exhibits, charts, and the 80-company update. If you enjoyed this episode, subscribe and share it with a friend who follows energy, tech, or healthcare.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warra

This week the Telltales crew unpacks shifting energy fundamentals, tough healthcare headlines, the rise of Web 1.0—and whether Tesla’s robo-taxi dream justifies a half-trillion price tag.[00:00] Intro Mike welcomes listeners, frames the show’s cash-flow focus across energy, tech, and healthcare, and reminds everyone to grab the accompanying memo.[00:47] Exhibit C – World Oil Supply & Demand Hunt revisits OPEC+ production moves, Saudi-U.S. coordination, and secondary sanctions aimed at Russia. He argues excess supply could keep WTI/Brent in the $50s before tightening 18–24 months out.[03:55] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook Gas futures slip as shoulder-season demand meets rising output (~108 Bcf/d). Despite near-term weakness, Hunt still sees 2024–25 averaging ~$4/MMBtu if production stabilizes.[05:05] Exhibit A – U.S. Fiscal Picture With Congress on recess and spending bills stalled, Hunt warns that continuing-resolution drama could spook capital markets. Political gridlock plus Epstein-file intrigue add to the uncertainty.[07:59] Technology & Healthcare Agenda The hosts outline three focus areas—healthcare, software history, Tesla—and promise a deeper Tesla dive later in the episode.[08:19] Healthcare Earnings & Policy (pp. 15)Jason highlights FDA leadership changes, a 250 % pharma tariff, and halted mRNA research grants. Vertex’s pain-drug miss and Lantheus’s pricing pressure contrast with fortress balance sheets and fresh buybacks, sparking a value-vs-value-trap debate.[15:56] Software History Part 4 – Network Effects & Web 1.0 From Microsoft Office lock-in to AOL’s ubiquitous CDs, Jason tracks the 1990s standards (HTTP, SSL, JavaScript) that enabled Internet scale—and set the stage for Amazon, eBay, PayPal, Yahoo, and Google.[20:40] Oakcliff Sailing Update A quick on-the-water report from Oakcliff International match-racing, with shout-outs to volunteers and rising teams.[22:18] Tesla Sum-of-Parts & Robo-Taxi Debate (p. 1)Hunt admires Tesla’s debt-light, cash-rich balance sheet but questions its $1 T valuation on just $5 B free cash flow. The trio models a $500-600 B option on robo-taxis and humanoid robots, comparing cost-per-mile economics to Uber and DoorDash, and muse on venture-style fleet financing.[32:30] Wrap-Up & Next Week Teaser Running long on enthusiasm, the hosts promise more on Tesla, Uber, and healthcare in the next episode—and sign off with the usual disclaimer.Catch the full memo at telltales.us and join us next week for deeper dives into markets that move your portfolio.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode we swing from macro storm clouds to silicon sunshine—probing debt risks, tracing software’s evolution, and spotlighting a Samsung-Tesla chip alliance that could turbocharge robotaxis.[00:00] Intro :00:47] Macro Risk: Could 2008 Happen Again? (Exhibit A)Hunt draws parallels between today’s oil-market risk premium and the 4Q 2008 liquidity freeze. He warns that a repo-market hiccup—not a bond auction failure—could be the trigger, given money-market–fund flight. Jason advocates 7 % across-the-board federal cuts, while Mike finds optimism in June’s surplus and $27 B tariff haul.[00:10:19] Software History – Part 3 Jason and Mike trek from IBM mainframes to the Apple Lisa and Windows 3.0. Highlights: Thomas Watson Jr.’s $5 B System/360 gamble, GM’s early OS, the birth of “software engineering” (1968), Xerox PARC’s WIMP GUI, and Bill Gates’ pivot from DOS to a ground-up graphical Windows.[00:19:21] Top Mark Rankings Spotlight Tyler introduces the Top Mark Olympic-class sailing ranking—bringing the race to LA 2028 and positioning Top Mark Capital as the sport’s data hub.[00:20:08] Healthcare Round-Up (pp. 15, 19, 20)Jason covers Roche’s direct-to-consumer MS drug move, the FDA exit of controversial pick Pradeep Vemuri, and Novo Nordisk’s growth-guidance cut amid GLP-1 competition. Discussion centers on PBM mark-ups, gene-therapy approvals, and Lilly’s competitive edge.[00:23:37] Tesla × Samsung: A Fab Deal (Page 1)Hunt lauds Musk’s “highest and best use” as Samsung commits billions to an Austin foundry for Tesla’s in-house AI chips. Mike recounts Tesla’s silicon lineage—from Nvidia to Jim Keller’s HW 5—and explains why owning capacity beats vying with Nvidia at TSMC. Jason calls it Intel’s missed opportunity.[00:28:04] Next Week Teaser & Sign-Off The crew previews Episode 2532: a deeper dive into Tesla’s 2 M-unit robotaxi strategy and the consumer shock of humanoid-delivered DoorDash orders. Listeners are urged to grab the memo and tune in next Wednesday.Thanks for listening! Download the memo at telltales.us, leave a review, and join us next week for more market storytelling.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week we weave through energy geopolitics, U.S. fiscal chess, breakthrough healthcare economics, and the exploding compute demands of frontier AI—plus part 2 of our Software History mini-series.[00:00] Intro [01:04] Oil Market War Premium & Russia Risk (Exhibit C)Hunt explains how secondary sanctions on Russian crude—now part of U.S.–China talks—add a $10-15/bbl war premium. Market oversupply persists, but geopolitical uncertainty keeps Brent in the mid-$60s.[02:22] Natural Gas Backwardation & OPEC Capacity (Exhibit B)Despite OPEC+ barrels returning, LNG prices remain backwardated. Oversupply could fade if new offshore and Permian projects stall, yet investors should stay patient before adding exposure.[04:05] U.S. Budget Scenarios & Rescission Strategy (Exhibit A)Hunt outlines a GOP plan to pass 12 spending bills, then trim via rescission to dodge Senate filibusters. Estimated FY 26 deficit could fall from $1.9 T to $1.5 T—Jason calls that “progress, but still daunting.”[07:04] Healthcare Round-Up (pp. 15, 20)• Vertex wins CMS support in 33 states for Casgevy, its $2.2 M CRISPR cure—savings outweigh costs for Medicaid.• Harrow licenses two Samsung biosimilars (including an Eylea rival), leveraging its ophthalmology sales force.• Tenet’s 23 % spike in exchange-patient admissions signals at least 20 % premium hikes ahead; brokers’ incentives deserve scrutiny.[11:54] Software History Part 2 – From Enigma to COBOL Mike & Jason trace WWII codebreaking: Turing’s Bombe, the “stored-program” breakthrough, and FORTRAN’s 1957 debut. Grace Hopper’s COBOL makes business computing accessible, seeding modern software.Ken Thompson’s Bell Labs team invents Unix and the C language, enabling software to hop across hardware platforms—the foundation of today’s macOS, iOS, and most cloud servers.[21:41] Sponsor Break – Oakcliff Sailing A behind-the-scenes look at repairing match boat #4 and training the next generation of marine-industry pros.[23:47] Big-Tech Earnings & OpenAI–Microsoft Friction (p 1)Ahead of Alphabet and Tesla prints, the crew debates Microsoft/OpenAI tensions and how Elon Musk’s portfolio complicates the AI landscape.[24:26] xAI’s Colossus 2 Compute Surge (p 1)Musk plans 550 k GB200/GB300 GPUs for training only—no inference—while OpenAI inks a 4.5 GW power deal in Abilene. Meta’s 6 GW push brings the trio’s new capacity to 12 GW.[26:37] Frontier-Model Arms Race (p 1)Is XAI iterating faster because its GPUs are clustered? Hunt thinks so; Mike notes Meta, OpenAI, and Oracle scrambling to match the single-site scale.[28:46] Looking One Year Ahead in Large Language Models (p 1)Data may be scarce, but synthetic data, bigger contexts, and reasoning engines should keep model quality on an exponential curve. Jason now defaults to reasoning models despite 50 × compute cost—latency is good enough.[31:38] Closing & Next Week More Software History and fresh cash-flow insights in seven days—download the memo, share the show, and stay healthy!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESMike, Jason, and Hunt connect the dots between geopolitics, AI infrastructure, and healthcare policy—always through the lens of cash-flow-focused investing.[00:00] Intro (Cover)Welcome to Telltales and the weekly Cash Flow Memo. Quick rundown of what’s ahead: energy, tech, healthcare, and a short history-of-software segment.[00:00] Oil Supply & the War Premium (Exhibit C)Spare capacity sits near 3 Mb/d, but conflict risks keep Brent in the mid-$60s. Trump’s proposed secondary sanctions on Russian oil add fresh uncertainty; crude would likely price in the $50s without these pressures.[05:33] U.S. Natural Gas Snapshot (Exhibit B)Futures support ~$3.80 gas in ’25 and $4 in ’26. Bottlenecks in Marcellus and high costs in Haynesville curb supply growth while LNG demand rises—limiting downside for efficient producers.[07:44] Fiscal Policy & Musk Politics (Exhibit A)A small rescission bill could pave the way for deeper cuts and a Musk-Trump détente. Implications for spending, inflation, and Tesla sentiment.[09:10] Punch Cards to IBM: A Software Origin Story From the 1801 Jacquard loom to Babbage’s Analytical Engine and Ada Lovelace’s first algorithm, Jason and Mike trace how punch cards seeded modern computing, the 1890 census tabulator, and ultimately IBM—mirroring today’s AI disruption debates.[16:58] Healthcare Check-in (pp 15, 20)Lantheus ($LNTH): CMS keeps mean-unit-cost pricing, delaying but not destroying value—stock at ~14× cash flow.Harrow ($HROW): Sales up 67 % QoQ; pharma-tariff chatter could hit biologics more than small molecules.[20:17] Big-Bank Earnings (p 13)$JPM, $MS, $GS, and $IBKR post strong free-cash-flow yields (~10 %) and richer buyback capacity—attractive for long-term compounding.[22:10] Google’s Windsurf Acquihire (p 1)FTC scrutiny forces a split “talent-plus-IP” deal, highlighting hurdles for AI M&A and changing startup exit math.[23:59] Enterprise Software & AI (p 2)Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake race to embed AI while shifting from seat licenses to consumption pricing—raising both opportunity and competitive pressure.[25:37] Oracle’s GPU Edge (p 2)Oracle secures early-run NVIDIA chips, scaling AI data centers to meet OpenAI-type demand—strategic positioning few can match.[26:38] Semis in Focus: NVIDIA vs. TSMC (p 3)$NVDA’s margins stay stellar, but $TSM’s massive CapEx underpins the ecosystem. Valuation gap raises questions about supply-chain power dynamics.[32:20] Wrap-Up & Next WeekDownload the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and join us in seven days for more data-driven market insights.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This week Telltales flies from oil barrels to GPUs, showing how energy, technology, and healthcare each reshape an investor’s cash-flow lens.[00:00] Intro[01:00] Exhibit C – Global Oil Balance (Exhibit C)Hunt flags disappointing demand growth (+0.5 Mb/d) against a 3-4 Mb/d spare-capacity cushion. Prices hover near $65 only because Middle-East risk keeps a volatility premium alive.[01:51] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook (Exhibit B)Dry-gas supply is capped at 106 Bcfd while LNG exports jump 2.5 Bcfd YoY. Power-sector demand has stalled, but the forward curve still implies $3.50-4.00/MMBtu—well above the 2024 trough of $2.40.[03:06] Exhibit A – U.S. Federal Finances (Exhibit A)The deficit is projected to fall from $1.93 T to $1.5 T, helped by prospective tariff revenue under a second Trump term. Lower issuance would be a tail-wind for Treasuries and the dollar.[03:49] GPU Revolution: A 3-Minute History (p. 3)An AI-generated voiceover races from Quake-era 3D cards to CUDA, ImageNet 2012, transformers, and ChatGPT—all highlighting how parallel processing unlocked today’s AI gold rush.[07:49] Will AI Become Sentient? Hunt presses Jason on whether LLMs are mere tools or future autonomous agents. The trio contrast Apple’s “bicycle” philosophy with Meta/OpenAI’s quest for super-intelligence.[15:50] Page 1 – Big-Tech Valuations Debate (p. 1)Apple and Alphabet trade at ~31× free cash flow versus Microsoft’s 50×, reflecting market worries about hardware disruption and search cannibalisation. Is Cupertino too risk-averse to catch the next wave?[22:54] Page 3 – Semiconductor Super-cycle (p. 3)NVIDIA’s historic $67 B FCF (57× multiple) dwarfs AMD and INTEL, while politically sensitive TSMC still trades at 60×. The hosts grapple with “trees-to-the-sky” expectations and supply-chain risk.[24:52] Oakcliff Sailing Update A quick detour to Nova Scotia celebrates new distance-race records and Oakcliff’s global youth-sailing calendar.[26:39] Healthcare Check-up Jason highlights Centene’s guidance withdrawal, shifting pharma-tariff timelines, and encouraging early data for Vertex’s non-opioid ICX pain therapy—all hinting at underwriting and reimbursement tail-winds.[29:05] Page 20 – Harrow Health Spotlight (p. 20)Management’s owner-operator mindset keeps the team bullish ahead of the next earnings print; sales execution is the near-term catalyst.[29:59] Next Week & Outro Chips history is officially “done”—software history (and CUDA’s dominance) is up next. Subscribe, share, and send your questions for the upcoming series on code and cash flow!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com