Telltales

SHOWNOTESIn this special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition, the team runs through the Cash Flow Memo and drafts the companies they think will grow free cash flow the most (percentage basis). Along the way, they hit the latest in oil and natural gas, then pivot into healthcare policy and the AI-driven semiconductor buildout.[00:32] Disclaimer Investment discussion for informational purposes only; do your own work before making any decisions.[00:42] Exhibits A–C: Oil, Gas, and U.S. Fiscal Process Oil firms up on geopolitical risk, natural gas rebounds sharply amid cold-weather pricing, and the team notes progress on U.S. spending bills and budgeting timelines.[05:26] Page 9: Energy Majors and LNG Hunt makes his pick among XOM, CVX, COP, OXY, and LNG—favoring LNG on capacity execution and positioning despite broader LNG supply concerns.[05:59] Page 10: Midstream Showdown On KMI, EPD, ET, WES, and ONEOK, Hunt leans toward EPD for integration and consistent operating performance.[06:19] Page 11: Upstream Discipline Test With oil down meaningfully, Hunt selects EOG as the most disciplined operator best suited to manage a tougher commodity tape.[06:45] Page 12: Natural Gas Producers and Midstream Weighing AR, EQT, CHK, and AM, Hunt calls it close but lands on AR, citing solid positioning and management.[08:01] Page 13: Banks and Brokers Jason and Mike both pick IBKR (and note broad AI agreement), while Hunt goes contrarian with GS; they discuss how buybacks vs. organic growth can drive FCF outcomes.[09:11] Page 14: Industrials and Aerospace Jason picks TDG on aircraft production recovery, Mike sticks with GNRC, and Hunt picks CAT—highlighting end-market sensitivity and where operating leverage may show up.[10:01] Healthcare: Big Pharma and Biotech Picks Jason picks LNTH (new prostate diagnostic and Alzheimer’s imaging growth), Mike picks VRTX, and they recap last year’s surprising winner and how baselines can distort growth rates.[11:34] Page 16: Consumer, Restaurants, and Beverage Jason and Mike align on CELH (including growth from Alani Nu), while Hunt goes with CMG and discusses leadership changes and brand durability.[13:28] Page 17: Logistics, Retail, and Housing Jason sticks with FDX (including a thesis around USPS services), while Mike and Hunt pick LEN—framing potential tailwinds for homebuilding and affordability dynamics.[15:01] Page 18: Materials, Fertilizer, and Utilities The team debates FCX vs. ALB vs. CF vs. NEE, focusing on lithium snapback potential, copper strength, and commodity-linked cashflow volatility.[17:05] Page 19: Managed Care and Pharma Giants With UNH, CVS, REGN, and LLY, the group converges on LLY again—weight-loss and Alzheimer’s themes dominate the discussion.[18:41] Page 20: Platforms, Delivery, Travel, and Small-Cap Healthcare Jason and Mike pick HROW again as commercialization scales, while Hunt chooses UBER, arguing the market may be underestimating Uber’s moat as autonomy ramps.[20:20] Scoreboard and Pick Recap They tally results (including AI agents) and reflect on where each host’s picks were strongest vs. weakest.[21:08] Healthcare Policy: PBM Reform and Incentives Jason breaks down PBM-related provisions affecting Medicare Part D incentives and rebates, plus how workarounds (e.g., GPO structures) can blunt intended reforms.[23:05] Administration, FDA Direction, and System-Level Change The team argues that structural regulatory changes to food/health oversight may be more durable than headline-grabbing controversies, emphasizing long-term consumer impact.[26:36] Semiconductors: ASML Bookings and the Capex Reality Check They interpret strong ASML bookings as evidence the AI infrastructure buildout remains real, then discuss TSM capacity constraints, Intel’s catch-up spend, and why partners seek second sources.[29:10] China, Taiwan Risk, and the Next Topic Arc A forward-looking setup for deeper China/Taiwan discussion across the memo universe, with a reading plug for Apple in China and how policy risk filters through real businesses.Thanks for listening. If you want the updated Cash Flow Memo and exhibits, download it at the podcast site—then drop a comment with your own “Pick’em” winners and what data you’re watching this year.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this informati

SHOWNOTESThis special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition runs a percentage-based free cash flow draft across the memo (pages 1–13), then closes with exhibits on oil, natural gas, and the U.S. budget—plus a healthcare segment featuring GLP-1 dynamics and emerging cancer vaccine data.[00:00] Cashflow Pick’em Format and Ground Rules Host sets the framework: pick the company on each page most likely to grow free cash flow the most on a percentage basis, and keep score versus last year’s predictions.[00:00] Disclaimer Standard informational-purpose disclaimer and reminder to do your own work.[00:00] Big Tech Picks: Tesla vs. Amazon vs. Apple Spending The group reviews last year’s results (Tesla surprised on FCF growth) and debates whether AI data-center CapEx keeps pressuring peers while Tesla benefits off a lower base and optionality (including robotaxi economics).[00:04] Software Picks: ServiceNow, Broadcom, Snowflake, Oracle Lessons ServiceNow won last year, Oracle disappointed, and this year’s debate centers on Broadcom’s AI hardware exposure versus Snowflake as an enabling layer for agentic tooling.[00:06] Semiconductors: Nvidia’s Run Rate vs. TSM CapEx and AMD/Intel Wildcards Nvidia’s dominance is acknowledged, but the conversation digs into bottlenecks, pricing power, and whether heavy foundry CapEx changes the cash flow race.[00:09] Media: Spotify Discipline vs. Netflix Spend and Deal Risk Spotify’s cash flow trajectory and cost discipline face off against Netflix’s content ramp and strategic transaction risks, with Meta and Disney briefly framed through the lens of capital intensity.[00:11] Telecom/Cable: AT&T Cloud RAN Thesis, Charter CapEx, T-Mobile Execution Comcast’s prior-year surprise is noted, then the focus shifts to margin structures, leverage, and whether cloud-based network architectures can unlock better economics.[00:13] Payments: PayPal Turnaround vs. Visa/Mastercard Durability The group leans into operating leverage and improvement potential at PayPal versus steadier compounding models for the networks.[00:14] Retailers: Walmart Resilience, Home Depot Housing Tailwinds, CarMax Turnaround A tough page with shrinking free cash flow leads to a discussion of “least bad” outcomes and what could drive a bounce-back, including housing policy tailwinds.[15:56] Exhibit C (Oil): Supply Discipline, OPEC+ Capacity, and WTI Range A quick state-of-play on global supply, spare capacity trends, and why the base case centers around high-$50s/low-$60s WTI with constrained production increases.[18:55] Exhibit B (Natural Gas): Henry Hub Pressure and LNG Oversupply Risk Natural gas retraces from recent highs as supply builds early; LNG growth remains the hope, but global pricing and oversupply dynamics can cap upside.[20:41] Exhibit A (U.S. Government Finances): Shutdown Risk and Budget Process Discussion on funding deadlines, progress on appropriations, and why a shutdown appears less likely if committees complete key spending bills.[21:54] Healthcare News: JPM Conference, Moderna–Merck Melanoma Data, Illumina Reimbursement Updates on muted deal flow, encouraging long-duration melanoma outcomes from a Moderna–Merck program, and a notable reimbursement development for Illumina-related oncology testing.[24:25] Lilly vs. Novo: GLP-1 Pills, Patents, and the Next Margin Battle The group evaluates oral GLP-1 momentum, patent cliffs outside the U.S., and why manufacturing cost and pricing strategy could reshape share over time.[26:27] Cancer Vaccines: How They Fit Into Treatment and Monitoring A practical framework for vaccines as an “anti-relapse” add-on, the role of MRD/early detection, and how falling test costs could expand routine screening and follow-on interventions.[31:01] Wrap and Next Week They pause the memo walkthrough to finish the remaining pages next episode and invite listeners to follow along with the memo and exhibits.If you want the full context behind each pick, download the Cash Flow Memo and follow along page-by-page. Subscribe for next week’s continuation of the cashflow predictions and more updates across energy, technology, and healthcare.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through their 2026 surprises across healthcare, tech, and energy—then tie it back to what cash flow investors should actually watch. Expect big calls on pharma M&A, AI in healthcare workflows, macro deficits, and the durability of Nvidia’s profit engine.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo Quick setup on the weekly memo and the focus areas for this episode: energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:25] Disclaimer Standard informational-only disclaimer before the discussion begins.[00:35] Healthcare Surprises for 2026 The group frames the “surprises” format and tees up Jason and Mike before Hunt’s larger policy thesis.[01:01] 2026 Could Be the Biggest Pharma M&A Year Ever Jason argues looming patent cliffs could force massive dealmaking just to keep sales flat—setting up a potentially historic acquisition cycle.[02:33] High Fructose Corn Syrup Ban Thesis A policy-driven surprise: Jason predicts a push to ban high fructose corn syrup as a simpler lever than restructuring agricultural subsidies.[02:56] Functional Cure for Parkinson’s via Cell & Gene Therapy Jason outlines why a breakthrough approval could arrive quickly—and why it could reignite investor optimism in the broader cell/gene complex.[04:36] AI Agent Doctors and Prescription Workflows Mike predicts “agentic” healthcare interactions; Jason points to real-world pilots aimed at reducing friction in routine prescription refills.[05:58] Medicare for All as a Bipartisan Surprise Hunt lays out a scenario where Medicare expands eligibility broadly, potentially eliminating Medicaid and shrinking the uninsured population—plus the deficit math challenges.[13:15] UnitedHealthcare, PBMs, and Structural Pressure The conversation touches on insurer economics, PBM exposure, and how policy shifts could reallocate (or disrupt) the healthcare profit pool.[14:10] AI in Healthcare: HIPAA-Compliant Tools and Workflow Enablement The group discusses AI applications in medical records and patient education, and why healthcare is becoming a prime arena for LLM deployment.[16:08] Oil Exhibit C: Resilient Prices Amid Geopolitics Hunt reviews production context (Iran, Venezuela) and why oil may hold in a higher range despite arguments for lower pricing.[17:38] Natural Gas Exhibit B: Production Surge and Power Demand Reality Check A high-supply setup led by the Permian meets softer “gas to power” demand—while LNG feed gas remains a key bright spot.[19:26] U.S. Government Finances Exhibit A: Deficit Focus and Spending Discipline Tariffs, entitlement reality, and the central objective: bending the deficit trajectory down over the next fiscal years.[21:41] Apple-Google: Gemini-Powered Siri Deal The group breaks down what the deal signals strategically and why “memory” and switching costs could define the next era of AI platforms.[23:45] Retail Updates: Walmart, Target, and Amazon’s Reinvestment Machine Hunt revisits Walmart’s free cash flow and compares retail positioning, while highlighting Amazon’s extreme R&D and capex reinvestment intensity.[27:00] Is Nvidia’s Margin Sustainability the Key Tech Question? Nvidia’s free cash flow conversion, hyperscaler capex expectations, and the integrated “full stack” advantage (compute, networking, cooling) that may defend margins.[30:42] Next Week Preview: China Exposure Across the Memo The team tees up a two-part run through the memo’s companies with a focus on China risk, Taiwan Semiconductor, and regulatory constraints.If you found this helpful, download the latest Cash Flow Memo and follow the channel for weekly episodes covering energy, technology, and healthcare through a cash flow lens. Share the episode with an investor who cares about fundamentals, not narratives.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt continue their “surprise” predictions for 2026. This week, focusing on tech related surprises. Then they shift into the memo’s exhibits on oil, natural gas, and U.S. government finances. They close with timely healthcare updates and a rapid-fire run through major news on pages 1–4.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales Mike introduces the Cash Flow Memo and previews a fast tour through energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:00] Disclaimer A quick reminder: this conversation is informational only and not investment advice.[00:30] 5 Tech Surprises for ’26 The team frames the segment as “surprises” that run against conventional wisdom, setting up five big tech calls.[01:41] #1 Stablecoins surpass SWIFT (monthly volume) Why stablecoins could become a dominant rail for cross-border dollar flows, and what regulation changes might mean.[04:09] #2 Tesla robotaxi rides beat Waymo (weekly) The case for a faster network rollout, plus skepticism around why autonomy scaling has been slower than expected.[06:17] #3 First quantum break of a crypto wallet A prediction that a dormant, high-value wallet gets cracked via brute-force quantum capability, distinct from “traditional” hacks.[08:04] #4 xAI leads foundation models by end of ’26 A debate on whether hardware scale and speed to deploy new systems could shift leadership in frontier AI models.[10:43] #5 Federal AI legislation passes The group discusses incentives for a single national framework versus a patchwork of state rules.[11:26] Macro surprise: Republicans hold the House A quick political curveball and how it could influence the policy backdrop for tech, crypto, and AI.[12:04] Sponsor break: Oakcliff Sailing A brief interlude on hands-on composite repair training and high-performance sailing programs.[13:13] Exhibit C: Oil and Venezuela Hunt breaks down why Venezuela’s “reserves” story is complicated, what heavy oil economics imply, and why Chevron flows matter for prices.[16:56] Exhibit B: Natural Gas and the Permian Warmer weather, weak Waha pricing, rising associated gas, and LNG liftings all collide in the 2026 setup.[18:53] Exhibit A: U.S. finances and the deficit path Why they think the deficit can keep shrinking with growth + inflation, and what to watch around potential shutdown headlines.[21:50] Healthcare news JPMorgan Healthcare Conference expectations, Novo Nordisk’s pill-form weight-loss move, Eli Lilly’s competitive dynamics, and why MRD testing could reshape trial design and treatment timing.[24:38] Pages 1–4: Tech and market news round-up Netflix and Warner deal chatter, antitrust workarounds, Nvidia’s next-gen platform economics, xAI fundraising, JPM’s “Proxy IQ,” ASML talent leakage concerns, and what it means to onshore leading-edge chips.[35:06] Next week The team tees up “healthcare surprises” for the next episode and signs off.If you found this useful, grab the latest Cash Flow Memo and follow along with Exhibits A–C as you listen. Subscribe for next week’s healthcare surprise episode and drop a comment with your boldest 2026 prediction.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

A rapid-fire “surprises for 2026” episode—contrarian macro + energy calls, then quick year-end check-ins for tech and healthcare through a cash-flow lens.[00:20] Disclaimer Informational only, not investment advice.[00:30] Macro & Energy Surprises Framework “Five-and-a-half surprises” for 2026: plausible outcomes that run against consensus.[01:24] Surprise: Debt-to-GNP Falls A scenario where the deficit narrows enough that debt held by the public declines (as % of GNP) by ~1 point.[02:40] Surprise: NRC Issues 2 Reactor Construction Permits A call that the nuclear regulator approves two new builds—potentially one traditional large reactor and one SMR.[04:39] Surprise: Private Fusion Hits Ignition A major fusion milestone happens outside a national lab—important progress, even if commercialization is still distant.[05:57] Reality Check: Nuclear Economics Debate on who eats overruns and how cost-of-capital + rate structures can cap nuclear’s rollout.[08:43] Surprise: Gas Supply Stays Strong Pushback on “associated gas is rolling over” narratives; the case that supply holds up into 2026.[10:05] Surprise: $5 Natural Gas A demand-driven bull case (LNG + data centers) that lifts marginal costs and resets the price band higher.[11:49] Surprise: China Oil Demand Re-Accelerates The team argues China could return to demand growth, challenging “peak demand” assumptions.[12:34] Next Two Weeks Preview Same “surprises” format continues—next week tech, following week healthcare.[12:54] Exhibit C: Oil Quick scan of oil + geopolitics; acknowledge headline risk without anchoring forecasts to low-probability events.[13:25] Exhibit B: Natural Gas Check the strips and structure (e.g., backwardation/contango) and what it implies for pricing.[13:51] Exhibit A: US Government Finances A fast read on fiscal dynamics and the political incentives shaping spending/subsidies.[17:31] Tech Updates Year-end thoughts on major semis/software—Nvidia + Groq talk, plus Amazon’s Graviton and CPU economics.[21:09] Healthcare Updates Preview themes: opioids, depression treatments, and drug pricing—plus how subsidies/incentives affect utilization and costs.[27:52] Wrap-Up Closing thoughts and a reminder: next week is tech surprises, then healthcare surprises—subscribe so you don’t miss them.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This week the team speeds through Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, natural gas, and oil) before revisiting last year’s “10-ish surprises” and what they signal for 2026 across energy, tech, and healthcare.[00:20] Disclaimer This conversation is for informational purposes only—do your own work before making any investment decision.[00:39] Exhibit C: Oil & the “shadow fleet” Brent rebounds as the U.S. boards a shadow-fleet tanker; the crew discusses how stepped-up enforcement could tighten sanctioned supply and push oil back toward the $70s.[03:48] Exhibit B: Natural gas & LNG economics Cold weather supports near-term gas, but the bigger focus is potential LNG oversupply and the all-in cost math of shipping U.S. gas to Europe and Asia (JKM).[06:00] Exhibit A: Deficits, rates, and healthcare costs They argue future deficit progress likely requires expense discipline—especially Medicare/Medicaid—while debating how Fed cuts may (or may not) translate into a lower 10-year Treasury.[07:46] “10-ish Surprises” framework for 2025 A Byron Wien–style review: what surprised in 2025, what didn’t happen, and next week we will roll out our list for 2026[08:39] Energy surprises: Saudi strategy & LNG permits Saudi Arabia appears more willing to defend market share in a weak market, while U.S. policy shifts reignite momentum for LNG project approvals.[09:49] Fusion timeline watch The group revisits the “private fusion ignition” idea and why milestones like Commonwealth Fusion’s 2027 target keep the theme alive.[10:32] Tech surprises: Apple/Google, Tesla, and AV policy They cover the iPhone-to-Android “miss,” antitrust pressure on Google’s default search deal with Apple, Tesla’s growing in-car voice controls, and the continued patchwork of autonomous-vehicle regulation.[12:44] AI adoption: hype vs. enterprise reality Demand is booming, but real business use cases still lag—Mike frames 2026 as a potential “early CRM” moment where pilots finally become production workflows.[14:54] Creators and GenAI Influencers aren’t “replaced,” but AI-assisted and AI-native content is accelerating—especially short-form, multi-clip storytelling formats.[16:19] Healthcare surprises: AI in drug development They debate what qualifies as an “AI-designed” drug and highlight the FDA’s move toward more in-silico modeling and reduced reliance on animal testing.[18:46] Food policy: corn syrup and incremental change RFK-era efforts show traction on certain additives, but banning corn syrup remains a tougher political/economic lift.[19:37] Macro surprises: spending, auctions, and geopolitics They revisit the “$500B improvement” (more revenue than lower spending), note that crisis scenarios didn’t materialize, and discuss rolling forward China–Taiwan—plus the “one-person unicorn” concept.[23:19] Next week preview More 2026 surprises incoming—shadow-fleet enforcement, quantum computing, and a tighter rule: cap the list at 20.Download the latest Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us, and subscribe so you don’t miss next week’s continuation of the 2026 surprises list.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team runs quickly through the memo’s Exhibits A–C (US finances, natural gas, and oil), then digs into the shifting competitive landscape in AI chips—Google, Nvidia, Broadcom, and the hyperscalers’ next moves.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo A quick setup for a cross-sector episode spanning energy, technology, and healthcare—and a reminder to download the memo.[00:00:20] Disclaimer Important investing and risk disclosures before the discussion begins.[00:00:40] Exhibit C: Oil — Oversupply and price pressure The group discusses rising surplus capacity, the market’s reaction to weaker growth expectations (including China), and why certain geopolitical headlines may matter less than they seem.[00:02:21] Exhibit B: Natural Gas — LNG margins and Europe pricing A look at softer gas pricing despite cold weather, the economics of getting LNG to Europe, and what shifting European supply dynamics could mean.[00:03:45] Exhibit A: US Government Finances — Deficit trends and rate sensitivity The deficit outlook improves into 2026, with discussion on revenue growth, expense discipline, interest costs, and the 2s/10s spread as a key watch item.[00:05:07] Why Google needs Broadcom & Nvidia does not The core segment: Google’s “software-orchestrator” DNA behind TPUs, Broadcom’s role as an industrialization partner, and Nvidia’s end-to-end “AI factory” strategy across chips, networking, and systems.[00:18:59] The case for the MAG 6 (and the risks to watch) A year-end reflection on portfolio construction: why a handful of dominant platforms may be hard to ignore—and how to think about “Intel/IBM-style” downside risk inside today’s winners.[00:26:19] Healthcare Updates — IPO talk and FDA acceleration Notes on a major healthcare IPO narrative, plus a standout FDA action tied to strong multiple myeloma data and what faster review pathways could signal.[00:28:04] Next Week + Wrap A scheduling update (Monday sessions), a preview of predictions, and a closing reminder to stay healthy and keep up with the memo.If you found this helpful, subscribe for weekly episodes and grab the latest Cash Flow Memo so you can follow along with the companies, exhibits, and valuation framework discussed.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode of the Telltales Podcast, Mike, Hunt, and Jason walk through the latest Cash Flow Memo—from US government finances and energy markets to a deep-dive on Nvidia and the AI data center buildout. They revisit the “Nvidia’s Five Risks” memo 18 months later and ask what could still derail the story for investors focused on cash flow.[00:00] Welcome & what’s in the Cash Flow MemoMike kicks off the episode with the usual Telltales introduction, highlights the Cash Flow Memo, and sets up a 30-minute tour through energy, technology, healthcare, and US government finances tied to Exhibits A, B, and C.[00:00:20] Disclaimer & investing ground rulesStandard disclosure that the conversation is for informational purposes only, not investment advice, and that listeners must do their own work before making investing decisions.[00:00:43] Exhibit C – Oil, China’s slowdown & a maturing global cycleHunt walks through Exhibit C, noting flat oil demand growth in China, the US, and Europe, arguing that China’s economy looks more “mature” and that global oil consumption growth should slow toward ~600,000 barrels per day, with implications for crude prices and upstream oil producers.[00:02:00] Exhibit B – Natural gas, Permian overproduction & negative Waha pricesExhibit B shows a very different picture for gas: cold weather, near-month prices spiking toward $5, the 2026 strip around $4+, and yet associated gas from the Permian keeps pushing production higher, leading to bizarre negative prices at the Waha hub and a tricky setup for upstream gas investors.[00:04:08] Exhibit A – US deficit, healthcare costs & the path for interest ratesTurning to Exhibit A, Hunt explains why fiscal year 2026 could look slightly better than 2025, how moderating healthcare and Medicaid growth could help stabilize the deficit, and why keeping debt-to-GDP near or below ~100% is crucial for anchoring long-term interest rates.[00:06:02] Inflation targets, deglobalization & the politics of power pricesJason questions whether the Fed’s 2% inflation goal is realistic in a deglobalizing world, while Hunt focuses on gasoline and electricity bills, arguing that regulators should “wall off” AI data centers from retail power rates and that utility regulation will become a bigger political issue.[00:08:22] Setting up Nvidia: revisiting “Hyperscale CapEx and Nvidia’s Five Risks”Hunt hands the conversation to Mike to revisit their August 2024 memo on Nvidia’s five key risks, explaining how Nvidia became the most valuable company in the world and why it’s time to compare the original risk map with what actually happened.[00:09:55] Risk #1 – CapEx digestion & token demand vs. GPU buildoutMike reviews the fear that hyperscalers would overbuild data centers and then “digest” CapEx, but notes that 18 months later Nvidia’s data center revenue is running north of $200 billion and older A100 GPUs are still fully utilized, shifting the key question to whether inference token demand can keep pace with GPU capacity.[00:12:14] Risk #2 – Depreciation mismatch & AI economics vs. accountingThe team revisits the concern that extending server depreciation lives to five or six years might overstate earnings if GPUs become obsolete faster, concluding it’s mostly a non-issue for big platforms like Google and Meta but something to watch for “neo-clouds” if their average contract lengths shorten.[00:15:28] Risk #3 – The AI scaling wall, X’s Colossus & the rise of networkingMike explains why the feared “scaling wall” hasn’t arrived, how X’s massive H100 clusters (Colossus) showed that coherent mega-clusters can leapfrog competitors, and why Nvidia’s networking stack—boosted by the Mellanox acquisition—is becoming as important as the chips themselves.[00:17:55] Risk #4 – Non-chip bottlenecks: software efficiency, power & export controlsThey tackle non-chip constraints: DeepSeek’s efficiency gains and Jevons Paradox (cheaper tokens driving more demand), severe power bottlenecks that leave Microsoft with idle chips awaiting grid connections, and geopolitical export controls that periodically restrict Nvidia’s ability to sell GPUs into China.[00:20:28] Risk #5 – Competition from Google, AMD, TPUs and custom siliconThe conversation turns to competitive threats: AMD as a perpetual second source, Google’s TPU v7 and its own coherent clusters powering Gemini, and custom ASICs for workloads large enough to justify re-architecting software, even as Nvidia remains the default platform for most AI data center compute.[00:21:51] Nvidia’s valuation, free cash flow growth & token-driven demandHunt walks through Nvidia’s latest numbers and a free cash flow multiple around 40–45x, asking whether 20% annual growth is realistic, while Jason and Mike discuss the massive potential if CPU-based data centers transition to GPU/TPU-based AI infrastructure over many years.[00:25:27] Healthcare, legal work & the real drivers of token growthJason highlights early healthcare AI use cases in medical note-

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt break down the big moving pieces across energy, technology, and healthcare—anchored by the latest Cash Flow Memo and the three macro exhibits. The centerpiece: Alphabet’s “comeback,” what really changed inside Google, and where AI may go next.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo[00:20] Disclaimer[00:31] Exhibit C: Oil and geopoliticsHunt frames oil’s near-term setup through the lens of Russia/Ukraine developments and what that could mean for crude pricing.[00:46] Exhibit B: Natural Gas—weather boost, but supply riskNatural gas catches a bid with supportive weather, but Hunt flags higher dry gas production and questions around LNG economics and potential oversupply.[02:34] Exhibit A: US government finances + debt trajectoryA deficit-and-debt reality check, including the politics around extending subsidies and the broader challenge of stabilizing debt as a share of GDP.[06:27] WSJ watch: extraditions and the Mexico angleMike flags a Wall Street Journal piece on extradited Mexican drug lords and why it stood out for him.[06:59] Don’t call it a comeback: Alphabet/Google and AIThe group unpacks why Google “came back” in AI: not sudden discovery, but finally shipping—plus the internal tension of protecting the search cash machine while deploying chat-first products.[17:51] Memo Page 1: Alphabet vs mega-cap peers + antitrust contextHunt highlights just how massive Alphabet’s revenue/cash flow footprint is relative to Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft—and how AI shifts the framing around search and “monopoly” narratives.[21:17] Healthcare news: switching gearsAfter tech dominates the first half, the team pivots to healthcare catalysts and policy considerations.[21:28] Vertex: Morgan Stanley upgrade and kidney disease opportunityJason summarizes the upgrade thesis and how risk-adjusted revenue expectations could build meaningfully into the 2030s.[22:00] Harrow: Vevye becomes Tier 1 on CVS formularyA tangible commercial catalyst: Tier 1 status can shift volume, lower copays, and potentially improve realized pricing dynamics.[22:55] 340B program changes: incentives, spreads, and reform attemptsJason explains how 340B evolved from safety-net intent into a profit engine for many hospitals—and what pending changes may do (and not do) to fix the system.[24:52] ACA tax credit deal: extend now, reform nextA practical debate: don’t create a coverage cliff, but use the urgency to push transparency, catastrophic-coverage thinking, and patient incentives.[28:58] Next week previewA tease for what’s coming—potentially a focused segment on key risks facing NVIDIA, with more healthcare deep-dives promised soon.Thanks for listening—download the Cash Flow Memo to follow along with the numbers, and subscribe so you don’t miss next week’s breakdown.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through the latest Cash Flow Memo, from global oil and gas balances and U.S. deficits to Big Tech’s AI platform war and key healthcare and biotech updates. It’s a tour of where cash is really being earned today in energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:00] Welcome, disclaimer & how to use the Cash Flow MemoMike kicks things off with the Telltales framework, a reminder to download the memo at telltales.us, and the usual “do your own work” investing disclaimer.[00:31] Exhibit C: Oil, OPEC+ and a long stretch of $60 crudeHunt walks through global oil supply and demand, highlighting Russian declines, Saudi increases, and flat demand in mature economies and China that could keep oil around $60 (or below) for 24–30 months before the market rebalances.[06:03] Exhibit B: Natural gas supply wave, LNG buildout & data centersThey dissect the relentless growth in U.S. gas supply—especially associated gas from the Permian—volatile Henry Hub pricing, and how LNG exports and power demand (including AI data centers) are key to absorbing the glut.[10:50] Exhibit A: U.S. deficits, healthcare subsidies & rising interest costsHunt reviews the federal budget picture, the fight over extending ACA tax credits, Medicare and Medicaid pressures, and why falling Fed funds rates may not translate cleanly into lower 10-year yields and mortgage rates.[13:26] The platform war Apple lost to NVIDIAMike and Jason tell the story of CUDA vs OpenCL, how NVIDIA turned GPUs into a proprietary compute platform, why Apple retreated into Metal and Apple Silicon, and how that history explains today’s Gemini-powered Siri and Apple’s “rent the brain, own the user context” strategy.[23:42] Big Tech scoreboard & AI market leadershipThe team compares market caps of NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft, discusses “Mag 6” dynamics (minus Tesla), and weighs how much of Big Tech’s strength is justified cash flow versus AI-driven froth.[25:36] Vertex: non-opioid pain strategy and next-gen channel targeting (memo p.15)Jason updates Vertex’s non-opioid pain franchise, steady prescription growth, and early optimism around a new binding site targeting another pain channel as programs transition into human testing.[26:16] Eli Lilly drops CVS Caremark for a smaller PBM (memo p.19)They cover Lilly’s switch from CVS Caremark to Rightway, how conflicts of interest at large insurer-owned PBMs distort drug pricing, and why a more neutral model could better align incentives.[26:44] CMS moves to close outpatient billing loopholesJason explains CMS’s push toward site-neutral payments for drug administration, especially chemo given in outpatient centers billed at hospital rates, and what that could mean for cancer care costs and Medicare spending.[27:42] mRNA cancer vaccines: Moderna vs BioNTech’s cash flow choices (memo p.15)Hunt, Jason, and Mike frame “cancer vaccines” as personalized post-treatment immunization, then contrast BioNTech’s cash-rich, capital-disciplined position with Moderna’s heavier post-COVID burn and what that implies for long-term investors.Thanks for listening to Telltales. If this episode helped you think differently about cash flows and moats in energy, tech, and healthcare, hit subscribe, leave a review, and grab the full Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of the Telltales Podcast, Mike, Jason and Hunt walk through the latest Cash Flow Memo, tying together US fiscal policy, oil and gas fundamentals, and the cash-hungry AI build-out at Apple, Amazon, Nvidia and more. They also dive into GLP-1 pricing wars, ophthalmology upstarts, and how post-COVID cash piles are being spent in biotech.[00:00] Welcome, format & Cash Flow Memo overview[00:20] Quick disclaimer (informational only)[00:30] Exhibit C – Oil demand, OPEC and a “mature” ChinaHunt reviews OPEC’s restrained production increases and how slower global liquid fuel demand growth, especially from a now-mature China, is extending the time needed to work off surplus barrels. They discuss why macro risks (Iran, Russia) may still keep WTI around $60 despite sluggish demand.[02:20] Exhibit B – US natural gas, LNG and power demand The crew breaks down booming LNG demand versus relentless US gas supply growth from the Permian, Haynesville and Marcellus. Negative Waha hub pricing, pipeline constraints to the Gulf Coast, coal’s temporary share gain in power, and the likely return of gas-fired growth post-2026 all feature.[03:34] Exhibit A – US deficits, debt-to-GDP and the dollar Hunt walks through US government revenues, spending and a projected $400–500B deficit reduction in 2026, contrasting America’s path with China, Europe and Japan. They highlight how stabilizing debt-to-GDP around ~100% and a potentially stronger dollar could support capital markets.[04:54] Apple, Siri & the Gemini deal: renting AI instead of building it (Memo p.1)Hunt, Jason and Mike dig into Apple’s decision to license Google’s Gemini model to upgrade Siri, while keeping the model on Apple-controlled servers for privacy and antitrust reasons. They contrast Apple’s historically low ~$12B CapEx with Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft, and debate whether running large language models will finally force Apple to “spend like a hyperscaler.”[07:00] Hardware vs software at Apple, and the next CEO profile (Memo p.1)Mike recalls Apple’s earlier need to buy NeXT for its OS, drawing a parallel to today’s LLM lag. They argue that under Jobs, software quality led hardware, whereas under Cook, hardware has leapt ahead while software (Siri, iOS polish) has slipped—shaping why a hardware-centric leader like John Ternus may be the logical next CEO.[09:00] Google’s incentives, Apple’s privacy stance & why not just use Google’s cloud? (Memo p.1 – AAPL, GOOGL)The hosts question whether a $1B annual fee truly compensates Google for tailoring Gemini to Apple silicon and serving it from Apple data centers. They explain why Apple can’t simply run AI off Google’s cloud without undermining its security narrative and App Store defense.[11:00] TSMC, Nvidia vs Apple and the chip supply pecking order (Memo p. 1, 3 – AAPL TSM NVDA)Hunt quizzes Jason on who is the bigger TSMC customer now—Apple or Nvidia—and how priority access to leading-edge nodes has shifted. They touch on AMD’s timing on new process nodes, hints of a historical feud between Steve Jobs and Jensen Huang, and why Apple still relies on laptop-class chips in its data centers.[14:58] Harrow Health: retina focus and salesforce strategy shift (Memo p.20)Turning to healthcare, the team revisits Harrow’s progress commercializing its ophthalmology portfolio, especially one drug with slower-than-expected uptake. Jason explains Harrow’s pivot to target retina surgeons more directly and sell a broader basket of products through a focused salesforce.[15:54] GLP-1 wars: Novo Nordisk vs Eli Lilly on price (Memo p.19)On page 19, they examine Novo Nordisk’s response to Lilly’s lead in GLP-1s, with Novo aggressively undercutting pricing on Ozempic/Wegovy to ~$199–349 per month for self-pay patients. Jason notes this is a rare corner of healthcare where competition and out-of-insurance purchasing have driven prices from ~$1,200 to ~$200 a month in just a year.[17:09] Regeneron’s Eylea cliff and new eye-care competition (Memo p.19)Mike outlines how Regeneron’s Eylea faces a wave of biosimilar competition, underwhelming uptake of Eylea HD, and new implant-based therapies that reduce injection frequency to every 6–12 months. They still respect Regeneron as a company, but highlight mounting pressure on this key franchise.[18:12] Vertex: cystic fibrosis strength and non-opioid pain optionality (Memo p.15)The conversation moves to Vertex’s healthy cystic fibrosis business and its potential upside from novel pain medicines awaiting clarity under the US “No Pain Act.” Jason emphasizes how reimbursement decisions could unlock broader coverage and meaningfully expand the addressable market.[18:47] BioNTech vs Moderna: who kept their COVID cash? (Memo p.15)Hunt contrasts BioNTech’s ~€14B cash hoard with Moderna’s reduced ~$4.5B balance, despite both enjoying COVID windfalls. He credits BioNTech’s more conservative founders—who famously still bike to work—as an example of capital discipline, and hints at a new ana

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of the Telltales Podcast, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through the weekly Cash Flow Memo: oil, gas, and US government finances, then dive deep into Taiwan Semiconductor’s history and the future of chip manufacturing, before closing with tech headlines and high-impact healthcare updates. Along the way they connect physics, policy, and business models back to cash flows and the durability of different franchises.[00:00] Intro[00:20] Disclaimer[00:30] Exhibit C: Oil Demand Slows, Supply Investment in Focus[02:55] Exhibit B: Natural Gas, LNG & Power Demand[04:32] Exhibit A: US Deficit, Tariffs & Shutdown Drama[05:29] History of TSMC & Morris Chang’s Foundry Revolution[08:31] TSMC vs the Old Guard: From “Real Men Have Fabs” to Neutral Foundry (p. 3)[10:53] Apple, EUV & TSMC as a Geopolitical Chokepoint (p. 3)[13:45] The Future of Fabs: EUV vs X-Ray & Substrate’s Bet (p. 3)[17:20] Economics, Power Needs & Who Adopts X-Ray Fabs First (p. 3)[22:50] Tech News: Amazon’s Data Center Build-Out & AI Power Constraints (p. 1)[24:05] Uber + Nvidia Robotaxis & The AV “Three-Way Contest” (pp. 1, 3, 20)[25:10] Tesla FSD v13 Test Ride – Getting “Very Good” (p. 1)[25:31] Harrow: Lawsuit Overhang vs Branded-Drug Growth (p. 20)[27:30] Harrow’s Melt Pharmaceuticals Deal & Capital Allocation (p. 20)[28:57] Vertex: Kidney Disease Breakthrough & Fast-Track Timeline (p. 15)[31:16] Vertex’s Non-Opioid Pain Drug & Reimbursement Uncertainty (p. 15)[31:52] FDA Leadership & Regulatory Stability To keep up with future episodes of the Telltales Podcast, download the weekly Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and subscribe wherever you listen. If you’re enjoying these deep dives into cash-flow-driven investing across energy, technology, and healthcare, consider sharing the show with a friend or colleague.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week we connect the dots across oil & gas markets, the rise of dollar-pegged stablecoins, and tech’s CapEx surge—then wrap with healthcare M&A and GLP-1 distribution shifts. Expect sharp takes, real numbers, and what it all means for cash flow and valuation.[00:00] Intro [00:20] Disclaimer [00:30] Exhibit C: Oil—OPEC+ restraint & a flat curve Oil hovers near $60 as OPEC+ (including Russia) keeps supply tight, flattening the forward curve. Limited monthly additions may be enough to hold prices and gradually curb non-OPEC supply growth.[01:45] Exhibit B: Natural Gas—Term structure resilience While near-dated gas has been choppy, the 2026 strip holds around ~$4, signaling longer-term support even as the front of the curve softens.[02:03] Exhibit A: U.S. Fiscal—Deficit glidepath & the dollar Targets to bring the deficit down from ~1.9T toward ~1.5T (with ~1.1T a better long-run anchor) would improve debt/GDP trajectory. With other major economies levering up, a relatively disciplined U.S. could re-strengthen the dollar.[02:57] Stablecoins vs. Payment Rails—What actually threatens banksStablecoins (not Bitcoin) pose the nearer-term challenge to bank settlement: ~$180B tethered supply and an estimated ~$28T in annual transactions point to real adoption. Large banks (e.g., JPM) pilot 24/7 institutional settlement while providers like Tether/USDC keep pegs via T-bills; upside is always-on money movement, downside is slow base-chain throughput, energy cost, and roll-back limitations.[07:10] Real-world case: Cross-border flows (SpaceX/Starlink) Illustration of collecting multi-currency revenues and quickly neutralizing FX risk by hopping into stablecoins, then sweeping back into U.S. Treasuries for working capital—freeing cash and reducing cycle times.[10:45] Why blockchain won’t replace Visa at checkoutBlocks finalize slowly and propagate across tens of thousands of nodes—fine for large settlements, frustrating at the point of sale. Expect banks to adopt the features (programmability, 24/7, instant-ish settlement) inside more centralized, regulated systems rather than relying on public chains.[13:46] Page 1: Big Tech check-in (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, TSLA) Q3 prints were broadly strong. Tesla’s valuation (>200× FCF) contrasts with Apple’s richer FCF yield and subdued CapEx, while AMZN/GOOG/MSFT step up AI-driven CapEx, compressing near-term FCF yields.[14:15] Page 4: Meta & friends—spend now, justify later? (NFLX, DIS, META, SPOT) Meta draws heat for outsized OpEx/CapEx without a third-party cloud profit engine. Bulls cite Zuck’s strong historic capital returns and AGI ambition; bears point to revenue timing and the market’s patience.[16:26] Page 1 (cont.): Data center CapEx & the power bottleneckHyperscalers highlight power constraints as a real limiter, explaining “neo-cloud” deals and long-lead grid work. CapEx lifts push FCF multiples higher (lower yields) even as deployed GPU fleets monetize quickly.[19:36] Page 2: Software’s ‘capital-light’ myth (CRM, NOW, SNOW, ORCL, AVGO) Low CapEx ≠ low investment: massive Sales & R&D are the true “maintenance” spend in SaaS. As AI inference costs creep into COGS (e.g., paying model providers), expect margin trade-offs unless revenue productivity jumps.[23:18] Page 3: Nvidia’s cash machine & competitive vectorsWith extraordinary FCF conversion and lighter CapEx than peers, NVDA’s valuation premium draws support. Real competitive risk tilts toward in-house silicon at the clouds (GOOG/AMZN) rather than legacy CPU/GPU rivals.[26:49] Healthcare: M&A thaw, GLP-1 direct channels, and FDA twists Novartis buys Avidity Bio; patent cliffs nudge Big Pharma to replace pipelines via deals. Lilly’s direct channel gains traction (rumored lower out-of-pocket pricing could widen access), while FDA leadership changes and a Huntington’s therapy setback temper optimism. Vertex’s non-opioid analgesic sees early adoption in elective procedures despite payer frictions.[31:34] Next Week: TSMC & non-lithography upstartsTeaser for a TSMC deep dive and a look at a startup pursuing chipmaking beyond traditional lithography—potential implications for capex cycles and competitive moats.Thanks for listening! If this helped your investing process, subscribe, share, and grab the full Cash Flow Memo for all ~80 companies plus Exhibits A–C.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, an

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, we connect cash-flow mechanics to headlines across energy, technology, and healthcare. We cover the oil/gas setup, a pragmatic tour through Bitcoin’s history, AI chip supply chains, and a potential reset in U.S. drug pricing.[00:00] Intro (p.1)Welcome to Telltales with Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence. Download the weekly Cash Flow Memo to follow along with updated exhibits and company pages.[00:00] Disclaimer - Informational only—do your own work. No investment advice is offered or implied.[00:00:30] Exhibit C – Oil Fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two largest producers buoyed prices but the impulse is fading. With macro uncertainty and geopolitics in flux, the base case leans toward ~$60 oil, acknowledging wide error bars. Near-term, lower prices would pressure non-OPEC supply growth and could reset upstream equity entry points.[00:01:30] Exhibit B – Natural Gas & Power’26 strip nudged above $4 while the curve stays in modest backwardation. LNG volumes improve into ’25/’26, but U.S. power burn underperformed as higher gas prices pushed coal units harder. View: gas likely anchors closer to ~$4 than $3.50; for E&Ps, hold core positions and be patient adding on potential price-driven equity softness.[00:04:22] Exhibit A – U.S. Fiscal Picture (Exhibit A)Deficit could improve into 2026 on tariff receipts, spending restraint, and somewhat lower interest expense. Social Security ($1.65T est.) and Medicare ($1.20T est.) dwarf most line items while interest rivals defense. Goalpost: nudge Debt-to-GDP from ~102% toward the high-90s by 2027-28—directionality matters even if we don’t get back to pre-COVID levels.[00:07:23] Page 7 – Payments & Protocols: Visa/Mastercard Visa (~$21B FCF on $38B revs) and Mastercard ($15B on ~$30B) convert revenue to free cash at elite rates, long valued ~30× FCF (~3% yield). Litigation remains an overhang, but the duo exemplifies “cash flow over narratives.” Sets up a segue: can blockchains truly threaten these rails?[00:09:26] Blockchain History, Part 1 – BitcoinFrom DigiCash and the cypherpunk movement to Satoshi’s 2008 whitepaper, Bitcoin launched in 2009 as peer-to-peer electronic cash. Milestones: the Genesis “bank bailout” headline, 10,000-BTC pizza (2010), Silk Road adoption, Coinbase founded (2012), merchant uptake (2013–15), Bitcoin Cash hard fork (2017), and U.S. spot ETF debut (2024). Today, BTC functions more as a store of value than a retail payments rail—by design or by emergent use.[00:17:53] Oakcliff Sailing [00:20:42] Page 1 – Big Tech Roundup (AAPL/AMZN/GOOG/MSFT/TSLA) (p.1)Microsoft’s OpenAI stake is now set at ~27%, raising the question of future 10-Q disclosure detail. iPhone 17’s refresh catalyzes delayed upgrades; the software lift helps, but Apple’s services/software runway remains the bigger debate. Tesla beat on revenue but missed on profitability; strong cash flow, grid-scale batteries, and a Robo-Taxi/CyberCab ramp (including a rumored steering-wheel variant) dominated the call. OpenAI’s benefit corporation points $25B toward health—expect diagnostics and drug discovery to be early targets.[00:24:23] Page 3 – AI Chips & Foundry (NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML) Geopolitics and export policy swirl around Nvidia’s China exposure; strategically, keeping China on the Nvidia software stack reduces tech bifurcation risk. Nvidia’s Blackwell sales + bookings have surpassed ~$0.5T, but TSMC remains the bottleneck. TSMC reported ~39% profit growth and flagged AI wafer demand with a mid-40s CAGR; initial U.S. output (AZ) still requires advanced packaging in Taiwan—globalized, but incrementally reshored.[00:27:48] Healthcare News Express Scripts (Cigna’s PBM) plans to end the rebate model in 2028, moving to cost-plus pharmacy reimbursement with estimates of ~30% savings on branded drugs. This tacitly acknowledges PBM incentives have contributed to higher list prices; a shift could stabilize independent pharmacies and improve transparency.[00:28:45] What’s Next Next week: more blockchain—stablecoins, bank adoption, and collateral/security models. The week after: TSMC and venture-led attempts to challenge advanced chipmaking paradigms.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affili

SHOWNOTESA fast-paced tour through this week’s Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, natural gas, oil), a history of Broadcom’s rise from spinoff to $1.7T giant, timely healthcare shifts (FDA fast paths, DTP), and quick hits on Tesla, Apple, NVIDIA/AMD, and Netflix’s cash engine.[00:00] Intro (—)Mike, Jason, and Hunt set up the week’s Cash Flow Memo themes across energy, technology, and healthcare, and point listeners to the memo and exhibits.[00:00:20] Disclaimer (—)Standard “not investment advice” reminder; do your own work.[00:00:30] Exhibit C — Oil: weak prices & market share mathGeopolitical progress around the Gaza ceasefire reduces risk premia; Saudi policy tilts toward market share. Brent/WTI near ~$58 with a flat curve; oversupply could flip to contango. Hunt argues ~$50 oil isn’t sustainable versus decline curves, but normalization could take 12–18 months.[00:02:41] Exhibit B — U.S. Natural Gas: resilient supply, watch LNG/power Dry gas output hangs around ~106 (bcf/d context), supported by associated gas from the Permian. Power demand forecasts for 2026+ warrant caution; LNG and power market news are key swing variables for the strip.[00:03:15] Exhibit A — U.S. Government Finances: deficit outlook improves Deficit projections improve by roughly $400B amid talk of a full-year continuing resolution and tariff revenue changes. Rates path matters: FY26 interest cost modeled at ~3.5% of debt, with short-tenor Treasury financing potentially nudging the 10-year toward the low-3s. Policy mechanics (reconciliation/50 votes) and program trade-offs feature prominently.[00:07:31] Company Deep Dive — Broadcom (AVGO): from HP roots to $1.7T (p.2)Tracing lineage: HP components → Agilent (1999) → Avago (KKR/Silver Lake, 2005) → 2016 merger with Broadcom. Under Hock Tan, a disciplined M&A engine shifted mix toward software (CA Technologies, Symantec assets, VMware) while staying fabless in semis. AI data-center networking reignites hardware; the challenge now is finding needle-moving deals at $1.7T EV.[00:16:12] Healthcare — FDA’s “super-accelerated” reviews Nine first-wave reviews target serious unmet needs with 1–2 month timelines. A Regeneron gene therapy for genetic deafness shows 9/12 children regaining hearing—access could follow quickly if approved.[00:17:06] Healthcare — Pharma goes DTP (direct-to-patient) Genentech pilots direct sales for Rx flu therapies, fulfilled via Cost Plus Drug and Amazon Pharmacy. Same-day door delivery hints at a broader channel shift that compresses middlemen and meets patient convenience.[00:17:58] Healthcare — TrumpRx adds IVF meds (Merck), 80% discount Big list-to-cash gaps spotlight PBM spreads. If cash-pay platforms set a visible reference price, pressure escalates for Medicare/commercial plans to converge—potentially a snowball toward lower net drug pricing.[00:19:06] Next Week Teaser: Blockchain A candid, critical take is coming—why blockchain hasn’t worked (yet) and where it might.[00:19:23] Future of American Healthcare: thought experiment Could a Republican plan converge with parts of the Sanders wing on Medicare-for-all optionality and MFN pricing? The aim: bend U.S. healthcare from ~18–19% of GDP toward peer levels (~10–11%).[00:20:48] Page 1 — Tesla earnings tonight (p.1)Strong Q3 deliveries frame expectations; watch auto margins and the energy segment’s contribution to cash flow.[00:21:26] Page 1 — Apple iPhone 17 traction (p.1)OS progress lands well; iPhone “Air” China launch timing noted. Device is thinner/lighter yet larger-screened—appeal vs pocket-fit tradeoffs.[00:22:31] Page 3 — NVIDIA vs. China: demand still outruns supply (p.3)China restrictions damp direct sales, but global demand stays well above constrained supply. Data/workloads are portable; enforcement challenges suggest indirect access routes may persist.[00:24:06] Page 3 — AMD’s OpenAI lane (p.3)OpenAI’s announced 26GW data-center ambition stresses GPU supply and spurs hedging. NVIDIA sells at the rack level (networking + liquid cooling); AMD is building toward comparable systems—OpenAI may shoulder more integration to diversify.[00:25:52] Page 4 — Netflix: the cash-flow franchise flywheel (p.4)FCF ~$11B vs Disney’s ~$14B; reporting pivots underscore cash generation. A hit kids IP (“K-Pop Demon Hunters”) hints at a scalable franchise strategy—portfolio bets create room for outsized wins while maintaining margin discipline.[00:29:15] Wrap-up & What’s Next Back next week with blockchain and, soon after, a TSMC history session. Thanks for listening—share the memo and subscribe for the weekly cash-flow lens.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be

This episode blends near-term energy realities with a tour through Oracle’s history and its AI pivot—then zooms out to policy, trade, and the cash-flow engines dominating tech and payments.[00:00] Intro[00:00:20] Disclaimer[00:00:44] Exhibit C: Oil outlook Hunt notes Middle East détente reduces risk premia but isn’t bullish for prices near-term. With Saudi likely to defend share, oil feels “subdued”; if you own quality E&Ps, hold, but wait to add until/if crude dips into the $50s.[00:03:22] Exhibit B: Natural gas oversupplySummer heat underwhelmed and gas-fired power is flat YoY despite AI/data-center narratives; LNG strength offsets only so much. Hunt sees 2025 gas averaging ~$3.60 (vs. ~$2.40 in 2024), with Permian associated gas keeping supply sturdy and storage entering winter “full.”[00:05:19] Exhibit A: U.S. finances CBO puts the FY25 deficit near $1.8T vs. the memo’s $1.9T placeholder, with 2026 likely lower (potentially by ~$400B). Policy brinkmanship (continuing resolution fights) hasn’t hit markets yet—but it bears watching.[00:06:40] U.S.–China trade tension returns (Exhibit A)China’s Commerce Ministry tightens export license rules on critical minerals; U.S. rhetoric hardens (tariff talk). Hunt flags a tail-risk: deeper economic decoupling (chips/planes/soybeans), which capital markets might be under-pricing.[00:10:07] Oracle: the origin story (p. 2)Jason traces Oracle to Ellison/Miner/Oates, CIA contracts, and IBM’s relational DB research (System R) inspiring SQL’s commercialization. Early funding was tiny (~$2k + $50k contract), growth leaned on debt, and a ’90s sales-practice scare nearly sank the firm before it emerged stronger.[00:17:19] Cloud stumble to AI inflection (p. 2)Oracle lagged early cloud pricing models (per-core vs. elastic compute) but is now resurgent as AI lifts demand. A marquee OpenAI deal reportedly swelled backlog from ~$80B to >$400B, positioning OCI and Oracle DB squarely in AI training/serving stacks.[00:19:41] Do LLMs change databases? (p. 2)Jason frames LLMs as “compression” layers over enterprise data; long-run, natural-language querying could obviate parts of SQL workflows. Oracle’s bet: be the infra and data platform where that future gets built.[00:20:33] Next week: Broadcom Teaser for another “history of” segment; TSMC likely to follow soon after.[00:20:49] Healthcare: California reins in PBMs New law curbs steering to affiliated pharmacies, mandates rebate pass-through to patients, and blocks exclusivity with drugmakers. The team sees momentum toward cleaner economics for consumers.[00:21:40] TrumpRx + AstraZeneca; DTC momentum AstraZeneca joins TrumpRx, and ~90% of pharma execs are evaluating direct-to-consumer fulfillment—potentially disintermediating PBMs over time.[00:22:18] Page 1 check-in: AAPL/AMZN/GOOG/MSFT/TSLA (p. 1)A quiet headline week overall. Notables: Apple succession chatter (post-Jeff Williams); Amazon’s “AgentCore” to standardize AI agent development on AWS; Microsoft secures hundreds of thousands of GPUs via a European “Neo Cloud” partner model—shifting CapEx optics while locking in capacity.[00:24:35] CapEx optics, Nvidia’s dominance, TSMC’s role (pp. 1–3)True AI CapEx outstrips reported figures when you include off-balance-sheet partner commitments. Nvidia’s equity value ($4.5T) towers over megacaps, but none of this runs without TSMC ($1.5T; ~$30B CapEx).[00:27:06] TSMC: 2nm pricing & growth (p. 3)2nm wafer pricing rises a measured ~10–20% (vs. 50% feared), preserving customer loyalty. Monthly prints show ~35% YoY revenue growth—evidence of unrelenting AI/foundry demand.[00:27:48] Payments compounding: Visa/Mastercard (+PayPal) (p. 7)Cash-flow engines: Visa ($38B rev / $21B FCF) and Mastercard ($30B / $15B FCF) keep compounding double-digit top and FCF lines—rivaled only by Nvidia’s margins at hyperscale.[00:28:44] Blockchain as a threat to networks? (p. 7)Jason sees limited displacement risk today; real-world rails still require dispute resolution (e.g., Coinbase adding rollback)—a philosophical break from immutable chains and a practical nod to traditional payment protections.[00:30:28] WrapThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this inf

SHOWNOTESA brisk, data-driven run through Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, Natural Gas, Oil), followed by a condensed “History of OpenAI,” semis capacity pinch points, a Tesla check-in, and timely healthcare policy updates.[00:00] Intro [00:47] Exhibit C: Oil—Geopolitics & The Abraham Accords PathDiscussion of a proposed Gaza plan reportedly backed by regional governments and the potential for broader normalization—implications for oil risk premia and global supply/demand. The team underscores how political stabilization could pressure crude pricing while reshaping Middle East dynamics.[02:25] Exhibit B: Natural Gas—Differentials & Permian Activity Waha basis blowouts (−$6 to −$7) tied to maintenance heading to the Gulf Coast; relief expected as maintenance ends. Team notes curtailments in the Permian and how depressed Waha prices could temper gas supply growth despite a longer-term ~108 bcf/d 2026 view.[03:51] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Finances—Regular Order vs. CRs All 12 House appropriations bills passed; several in conference with the Senate. If completed, “regular order” could be a real fiscal process improvement; timing risk remains around near-term pay cycles and political tactics.[06:54] The History of OpenAI From 2015 nonprofit roots to capped-profit restructuring in 2019, Microsoft’s early backing, and the GPT-1→2→3 progression culminating in ChatGPT’s breakout adoption. The hosts highlight governance tension, talent churn, and the compute arms race driving massive capex, alongside OpenAI’s push into consumer and enterprise features.[19:02] Next Week’s History: Oracle—From Cash Machine to Capex Engine (p. 2)Teaser for Oracle’s pivot into massive AI infrastructure spend, its OpenAI linkage, and whether financing can keep pace with ambition.[20:16] Semis Stack & The Compute Bottleneck (NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML) (p. 3)Page 3 spotlight: NVDA leadership vs. AMD incentives, Intel’s moves, and why TSMC’s process capacity is the current “choke point.” The crew argues TSMC’s pricing power is underexercised relative to its moat and strategic position.[23:07] Tesla: Model Y Trim, FSD v14, and Product Roadmap Expectations (pp. 10–11 if applicable)Market hoped for a ~$30k EV; instead a lower-cost Model Y variant and ongoing robo-taxi focus. FSD v14 early feedback looks improved; rumors swirl (Roadster, new propulsion/downforce concepts), but capital markets still weigh valuation vs. cash generation.[26:16] Healthcare News: TrumpRx Mechanics & Medicare Math (Exhibit A; Healthcare pages)Refined estimate places Medicare Part D government spend near ~$140B (older figure), with potential savings in the ~$70B range depending on design. Key operational unknowns (coverage vs. out-of-pocket) and how thresholds interact with the $2,000 OOP max.[27:21] Tariffs on Patented Pharma & CDMO Workarounds (Healthcare pages)100% tariff headline risk appears mitigable—onshoring or contracting U.S. CDMOs can offset. Given high gross margins post-R&D, the sector sighs relief versus harsher scenarios.[28:01] The Case for the Almighty Dollar (Exhibit A)If spending levels stabilize and healthcare growth moderates, the U.S. deficit could trend from ~$1.9T toward ~$1.4–1.5T. Hosts contrast U.S. trajectories with other majors; note gold strength vs. a firming dollar as markets reassess fiscal momentum.[30:32] Outro Thanks for listening! If the episode helped your investing framework, share it with a friend and grab the latest Cash Flow Memo for all 80+ company updates and Exhibits A–C.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESA brisk tour through oil, gas, and U.S. fiscal mechanics, followed by a biotech history chapter and a deep dive on NVIDIA’s sustained dominance. We close with a big healthcare development—“Trump-RX”—and quick hits from Harrow Health’s investor day.[00:00] Intro [00:28] Exhibit C – Oil: $62 is Doing Its Job Hunt frames today’s oil tape: production is rolling off in the U.S., OPEC, and non-OPEC; geopolitical thawing could keep prices soft near term. With Saudi capacity around 12 mb/d and surplus capacity trending toward ~2.5 mb/d by 2026, a “normally supplied” market implies oil trades in the $70s—though swoons into the $50s can happen on the way there.[02:05] Exhibit B – Natural Gas, Power Burn & LNG Gas underperformed, but storage is robust. Power burn was flat ’25 vs ’24 despite “AI, AI” chatter—a surprise tied to coal plant life-extension and a near-term lull in new wind/solar coming online. LNG demand stepped up this year; if power burn resumes climbing, a durable ~$4 gas band becomes more plausible.[03:22] Exhibit A – U.S. Cash Flow & the Shutdown The team walks through the continuing resolution dynamics: House bills vs 60-vote Senate reality, daily vote tactics, and the case for finishing all 12 appropriations. Beyond the political scoreboard, the focus is on process: budgeting via CRs isn’t how the system should work—and markets will parse timing of data releases like jobs.[05:44] Biopharma History (Part 4): From Genzyme to Monoclonals Jason spotlights Genzyme’s rare-disease model (boosted by the Orphan Drug Act), the Human Genome Project’s 13-year blueprint, and the 1996 Dolly milestone foreshadowing cell reprogramming. Genentech’s late-90s antibodies (Rituxan, Herceptin) ushered in targeted oncology—monoclonals remain the highest-grossing class today.[12:09] Next Week: OpenAI—A Controversial History Programming note: the crew will tackle OpenAI’s origin story and flashpoints next week, with Oracle and NVIDIA history episodes likely to follow.[14:19] NVIDIA’s Moat: Cash, CUDA, Cadence (p. 3)Hunt updates the NVIDIA page: zero net debt, >$50B cash, ~$85B run-rate FCF on ~$170B revenue, and modest capex vs hyperscalers. Mike explains why CUDA’s ecosystem and annual product cadence (powered by ~$15B R&D) create a TCO advantage so strong that even “free” AMD GPUs lose in practice; the window for rivals narrows as workloads stay variable.[21:20] Post-Break: ASICs vs. AMD & What’s After LLMs Jason notes the market’s pivot: when buyers do switch from NVIDIA, they’re more often going custom (ASIC/TPU) than to AMD. He adds that frontier researchers expect architectures beyond today’s LLMs to power the next step in reasoning—another reason flexibility favors NVIDIA’s stack for now.[22:43] Healthcare Shake-Up: “Trump-RX” and PBMs A new Medicare direct-to-consumer platform (Pfizer as first partner) could remove PBMs from many transactions, standardize pricing, and simplify Part D decisions. The panel discusses “gross-to-net” dynamics (often ~50% industrywide) and why UnitedHealth’s PBM economics could face pressure; potential annual savings to Medicare could be very large.[27:25] Harrow Health Investor Day: Buying Back Melt Harrow fully acquires the rest of Melt (anesthetic asset) for $8M upfront plus royalties. The team praises the capital allocation arc—spin out in the lean years, re-acquire after Phase 3 success once cash flows stabilize—highlighting optionality beyond ophthalmology (e.g., dentistry).[28:41] Wrap-Up & Next Week Sign-off with a reminder to check the memo. Next episode: OpenAI’s history—then likely Oracle and NVIDIA deep dives.Thanks for listening! If this episode helped clarify markets, share it with a friend and subscribe. Grab the Cash Flow Memo for all exhibits and the ~80-company financials.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

The Cashflow MemoDownloadSHOWNOTESA fast-moving tour across energy, technology, and healthcare: oil spare capacity looks set to tighten, natural gas loses its backwardation, DC politics and immigration policy enter the chat, we revisit Genentech’s beginnings, and then unpack Apple, Oracle/Broadcom, and NVIDIA through a cash-flow lens.Stick around for a sailing community shout-out from Oakcliff and a healthcare segment weighing Tylenol headlines against mixed evidence.[00:00] Intro[00:19] Disclaimer[00:26] Exhibit C — Oil: spare capacity on track to shrinkHunt walks through surplus crude capacity by country (Saudi, UAE, etc.) and argues that by next year the cushion could slip back to ~2.5 mb/d. With demand growth modest, geopolitics (Ukraine, Iran) and the “$62 oil did its magic” supply response suggest the window for sub-$50 oil may have passed.[03:13] Exhibit B — Natural Gas: futures tone weakensBackwardation is gone; later-dated gas sits around ~$3.95 (’26), with a ’25 average ~ $2.65 and prompt near ~$3.10. Supply ticked down when prices averaged ~$2.40–$2.75, but rebounds in ’25 (Permian leads; Waha even flipping negative). Despite AI power buzz, gas-fired demand has flattened as coal plants linger and wind/solar come online.[05:35] Exhibit A — DC budget brinkmanship & policy crosscurrentsHouse passes a short extension; Senate dynamics keep shutdown risk alive around October 1 and again into Thanksgiving without a broader deal. Conversation turns to a White House move to hike H-1B employer application fees from ~$2,500 toward ~$100,000—raising questions about talent, wages, and whether price hikes would throttle volumes or better filter for “best and brightest.”[11:12] Biopharma History (Part 3): Genentech, insulin & the tools that unlocked biotechJason traces Boyer/Cohen’s 1973 gene-splicing breakthrough and Genentech’s path from somatostatin to human insulin (Humulin) and a blockbuster 1980 IPO alongside peers like Biogen and Amgen. Mike spotlights PCR’s origin story—Kary Mullis’s unconventional inspiration—and how DNA amplification reshaped diagnostics, forensics, and research.[17:33] Oakcliff SailingFrom Newport’s Sailing Museum to fundraising for sails and a long-term home in Oyster Bay, Dawn Riley shares updates and an invitation to visit, support, and get involved.[19:52] Healthcare Update — Tylenol headlines vs. mixed evidenceTrump/HHS draw a headline-grabbing link between prenatal Tylenol use and autism. The crew weighs the literature (often ADHD-focused, mixed conclusions), real-world usage since the 1950s, and pregnancy tradeoffs when Tylenol is the only approved painkiller—underscoring how nuance gets lost in big-policy moments.[22:09] Page 1 — The case for $AAPLHunt contrasts hyperscaler CapEx (Amazon ~$90B; Alphabet/Microsoft $65B each) with Apple ($12B) and asks whether Apple can win via on-device/app-centric AI without giant model spend. Jason, a hardware/software skeptic of late, notes a packed Apple Store and a rare OS update that actually feels faster—hinting at green shoots on experience even as security/AI integration remain hard problems.[25:17] Page 2 — Broadcom vs. Oracle: cash flow, CapEx, and OpenAI exposureOracle is running heavy CapEx with negative FCF tied to AI data centers and a massive OpenAI compute commitment; leadership shifts elevate cloud execs. Broadcom, by contrast, throws off FCF with comparatively little CapEx and benefits when hyperscalers deploy non-NVIDIA accelerators. The debate: is Oracle’s risk/reward compelling—or just risky?[27:57] Page 3 — NVIDIA’s lead & the demand questionNVIDIA’s equity value (~$4.4T) and striking FCF margins prompt the sustainability question. Mike thinks supply execution looks solid—each new chip lowers cost-per-token and sustains ROI—but demand relies on platform wars, funding cycles, and whether value accrues beyond NVIDIA. If financing tightens, who blinks first—and do balance-sheet giants like Google gain relative advantage?How did you like this week’s Telltales? Your feedback helps me make this great.Loved | Great | Good | Meh | Bad | ….. If you liked this post from Telltales, why not share it?ShareThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no li

SHOWNOTESThis episode tackles the week’s cash-flow movers across energy, tech, and healthcare—then time-travels through biopharma’s biggest breakthroughs. We close with practical EV takes, Big Tech updates, and why Mars might be more interesting than the headlines suggest.[00:00] Intro [00:30] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand IEA’s latest revision lifts 2025 demand growth to ~0.7–0.8 mb/d (vs. ~0.4–0.5), implying the surplus could tighten from ~3.3 mb/d toward ~2.0—mostly in Saudi spare capacity (10.1 mb/d run-rate vs. ~12 mb/d capability). Futures sit near ~$62 as macro/geopolitical risk (Russia distillates, Iran supply) caps downside but keeps the curve flat in the low-60s.[03:34] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand/Supply Production hovered near ~106 while power burn stayed frustratingly flat (~37.8→38.5). Spot printed $3.04 last Thursday, with a contangoed strip around ~$3.83–$3.90 for 2026—disappointing versus the old ~$4 anchor given modest data-center uplift to date.[04:38] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Finances & Rates Congress passed a CR to Nov 20; Democrats seek Medicaid restorations, making a shutdown plausible. The Fed delivered a quarter-point cut—arriving “too late” in Hunt’s view—after holding steady post last fall’s 50 bps move; politics around timing get a candid airing.[06:50] Biopharma History: From Penicillin to mRNA Alexander Fleming’s accidental penicillin find (1928/29) led to wartime scale-up (Pfizer’s deep-tank fermentation; doses >2M by 1943) and a “Golden Age of Antibiotics” (streptomycin for TB, tetracycline). Genentech’s 1980s recombinant insulin marks the modern biotech inflection; BioNTech’s mRNA pivot shows how far we’ve come—even as viruses and antibiotic resistance remain unsolved frontiers.[17:16] Oakcliff Sailing Community update and Annapolis Boat Show plans; proceeds benefit programs via racingcalendar.org.[19:29] Page 1: Mega-Cap Check-In Quick scan of the “Page 1” five. Tesla highlights include Musk buying ~$1B of shares and Nevada approval to test robotaxis; Amazon FC tour preview tees up automation talk; Microsoft’s OpenAI arrangements continue to solidify.[19:44] Apple: Translation AirPods & the AR Path (p. 1)AirPods Pro 3 impress—live in-ear translation hints at Apple’s real-world AR strategy while iPhone “Air” appeals to China’s thin-phone fad and preps a foldable future. New “liquid glass” UI lands better in hand than on stage; the market’s “not enough AI” reaction misses the iteration-to-platform arc.[21:51] Microsoft & OpenAI: Deal Momentum (p. 1)No big surprises—just steady progress that reinforces Azure’s AI gravity and inference economics, with edge vs. cloud tradeoffs a watch-item.[22:28] Oracle: Building AI ‘Factories’ (p. 2)Larry Ellison leans into capacity for inference—Oracle wants to be a go-to “AI factory” supplier. Jason flags an overbuild risk if inference migrates to edge devices, but legacy database strengths gain new relevance in the AI era.[25:10] Page 3: NVIDIA & China Strategy China signals intent to reduce NVIDIA reliance while simultaneously pressing a prior remedy about uninterrupted supply—talk vs. action tension. Bottom line: NVDA’s constraint is still TSMC wafer output; global demand ex-China remains plenty.[27:26] Life on Mars? NASA reports organic carbon and iron compounds consistent with microbial biosignatures; alternative non-biologic origins remain unconvincing. Sample-return logistics could unlock definitive answers—surprising this didn’t dominate the news cycle.[29:09] Tesla Model Y Door Safety (p. 1)Emergency latches exist but aren’t intuitive, especially rear seats; several accidents spotlight the issue. Expect regulatory pressure for a clearly mechanical primary interior release.[30:16] Used EVs: Who Should Buy What? (p. 1)Charging at home is the gating factor; in California it’s often a no-brainer. For used, Tesla’s deeper field data and software stack make it the safer pick; typical battery life guidance ~150k miles, with many vehicles exceeding that—non-Tesla software still lags.Thanks for listening! If this helped you think in cash-flow, share the episode and grab the full memo for charts, exhibits, and ~80 company updates. Subscribe so you never miss the next deep dive.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. T

SHOWNOTESA brisk, cash-flow-first tour through energy, technology, and healthcare: oil and gas realities, the federal balance sheet, big labor revisions, and the AI build-out—plus biotech’s backstory and fresh FDA/advertising policy moves.[00:00] Intro (n/a)[00:19] DisclaimerReminder that the episode is informational only and not investment advice. Listeners should do their own work and assume no guarantee of completeness or accuracy.[00:30] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Oil pricing “stuck” near the low-60s amid geopolitical tensions and weak macro catalysts. Spare capacity is drifting lower mainly from decline curves and reduced capex; U.S. activity (rigs/completions) is down, with 2025 U.S. output guided lower and 2026 ~12.7–12.8 mb/d. New projects look unlikely at current prices, keeping a floor under crude absent major macro breaks.[04:22] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand/Supply Despite questions about recovery to $70s oil, weaker demand growth—especially in China and Asia—tempers the upside. The team doesn’t see a $50 handle as likely given supply dynamics and geopolitical backdrop, but also isn’t banking on a quick return to higher prices.[05:06] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Cash Flow Targeting progress rather than perfection: discussion of trimming the deficit toward ~$1–1.5T over the next couple years versus COVID-era blowouts. Debt-to-GDP math: if deficits stabilize, the ratio can flatten near ~102% before drifting down. Expect noise as Congress wrestles with funding via continuing resolutions to avoid shutdown-style disruptions.[07:55] Jobs Revision: The Labor Data Reality CheckRoughly ~1M jobs revised away (~76k/month on average), implying two negative months and several weak ones last year. Vanguard’s vantage via 401(k) enrollments/contribution trends hinted at a softer market earlier; poor inputs complicate Fed timing and reinforce criticism that policy cuts ran “too late.”[10:14] Biopharma History (10-Minute Sprint) From ancient fermentation and early antibiotic uses to Pasteur’s germ theory, vaccination experiments, and Mendel’s genetics—laying the groundwork for modern biopharma. Clarifies “biotech” vs “pharma” and notes this series will span multiple episodes.[17:25] Page 1: Tesla’s $1T Pay Package (p. 1)Long-dated, “outlandish-but-plannable” milestones: $8T valuation, robotaxis, humanoid robots. Hosts lean over 50/50 on operational targets over a 10-year window; valuation ultimately rests with markets. Governance sidenote: Delaware ruling, Texas reincorporation, and how a prior plan could affect today’s package.[21:27] Page 2: Software—CRM / NOW / SNOW / ORCL / AVGO (p. 2)Oracle pops ~30% on AI-related backlog/commentary (notably OpenAI). Debate: Can capital markets really fund another ~$100B for OpenAI? One view: software innovation may pivot, forcing a spending rethink; another: token demand far exceeds supply (HBM bottlenecks, NVIDIA shipping everything, hyperscalers/“neo-clouds” deals), so pricing power and demand migration across providers (MSFT/Gemini/etc.) sustain the buildout.[26:03] Sponsor Break: Oakcliff SailingQuick update from the water: race results, training, and a fall foiling series—follow along on social feeds.[27:44] Healthcare News Roundup Executive order seeks to curb pharma ads by reverting to pre-1997-style disclosure—potential hit to legacy media and to DTC channels that bypass PBMs. Policy fragmentation on vaccines at state levels draws criticism. FDA moves to accept single-arm studies for ultra-rare diseases ([31:00] Sign-Off Thanks for listening! If this helped your investing process, subscribe, share with a friend, and grab the latest Cash Flow Memo to follow the numbers each week.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week we open with the Google antitrust decision, then dive into Exhibits C (Oil), B (Natural Gas), and A (U.S. finances) before a tech deep-dive on AI capacity, TPUs vs GPUs, and close with healthcare policy shifts.[00:00] Intro[00:38] DisclaimerGeneral investing discussion only; do your own work. Views are the hosts’ alone.[00:51] Exhibit C – Oil (Exhibit C)Geopolitics keeps crude “stuck” around $62–64 with a flat curve (no backwardation). Spare capacity from Saudi/UAE plus tepid demand (+~0.4 mb/d 2H) cap prices; at these levels, U.S. completions slow and ~3 mb/d global surplus could burn off over ~18 months. U.S. output near ~13 mb/d (from ~11.9 in ’22) likely flattens.[03:07] Exhibit B – Natural Gas Near-month gas dips under $3 after holding $4–4.25 for ’25–’26; shoulder-month seasonality adds pressure. Dry gas production trending ~108 (from ~106) looks entrenched; power demand is surprisingly flat (coal retirements slower), while LNG rises—netting out to softer pricing.[04:37] Exhibit A – U.S. Government Cash Flow Budget brinkmanship keeps Exhibit A in the headlines into Oct. Targeting a deficit move from just under $2T to ~$1.5T would be progress, with $1T the real goal. Ten-year rate resilience matters; if deficits bend down and debt/GDP stabilizes, the U.S. could outperform Europe/Japan/China.[05:28] Macro: Rates, Dollar & GoldBeyond the policy rate, markets set the rest—carry dynamics have limits without adding risk. Central banks now hold more gold (by value) than USD reserves, framing the dollar as the “least bad currency.” AI-driven productivity could help “grow our way” out of deficits.[09:08] Google Antitrust: Defaults Without ExclusivityThe ruling labels Google an illegal monopoly in search but stops short of break-ups; exclusive search deals must end, yet paid defaults continue (Apple’s ~$20B+/yr remains in play). Google may need to license index/interaction data at marginal cost, potentially aiding competitors (e.g., OpenAI). Non-exclusive deals could cut Google’s payments—or invite a Meta bid to become the iPhone’s AI-first gateway (with Apple’s 30% app economics inside the App Store). Parallel talks: Siri ↔ Gemini; Meta exploring Google capacity underscores a broader compute crunch.[16:22] TPU vs GPU: Who Wins Inference?China’s domestic stack (e.g., homegrown accelerators) plus energy policy could brute-force parity despite lower-spec chips. Google’s vertically integrated TPUs may lower inference cost; NVIDIA counters with rapid cadence and an inference-tilted roadmap (GB300, “Rubin” series). Ultimately, all-in “cost per token” decides share.[20:13] Healthcare News: Labels, SNAP & CDCTexas moves to flag ingredients banned abroad on food labels, restricts SNAP “junk food,” and expands nutrition education—watch for copycat states or FDA action. CDC leadership churn sparks debate; quick course-correction can be healthy if fit is wrong. Broader reviews (and even autism-cause inquiries) spotlight a needed return to open scientific debate.[24:36] Next Week: Biotech History TeaseFrom penicillin back to early natural-product hunts—when scientists literally brought home dirt to find new drugs. A fun look at the explorer mindset that seeded modern biotech.[26:28] Outro & DisclaimerStandard disclosures; information believed reliable but not guaranteed. Hosts may hold positions mentioned.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESA fast-moving episode: Hunt opens with Exhibits C/B/A (oil, gas, U.S. finances), then we sprint through a crisp history of AI from Turing to Transformers before closing on healthcare—Berkshire’s UNH stake and how MFN drug pricing pressures PBMs.[00:00] Intro (—)Welcome to Telltales with Mike, Jason, and Hunt. Grab the weekly Cash Flow Memo and follow along as we hit energy, technology, and healthcare through a cash-flow lens.[00:57] Disclaimer (—)Informational only; do your own work. No investment advice.[01:22] Exhibit C: World Oil—Supply, Sanctions & the Risk Premium (Exhibit C)Iranian output is running stronger than assumed while sanctions dynamics on Russia/India/China and “shadow fleet” enforcement remain key swing factors. Hunt frames oil pricing as fundamentals plus a $5–$20/bbl risk premium, shaped by geopolitical uncertainty and sanction compliance pathways (e.g., ship classing, SWIFT visibility). Saudi policy and the restoration of curtailed OPEC barrels are tracked against this risk overlay.[07:10] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas & Producer Cash Flows (Exhibit B; p. 11)Strip prices are modest vs last year, and Hunt notes how lower commodity realizations cascade into lower producer cash flow. Capital spending tends to track cash generation; he flags names on p. 11 where production rose despite tighter cash (EOG, Magnolia).[07:56] Exhibit C (cont.): U.S. Shale & OPEC Strategy (Exhibit C)U.S. crude peaked near 13.3 mbpd in ’24 and could drift lower if prices hang in the low-$60s. With OPEC+ restoring prior curtailments and Saudi’s voluntary cuts unwinding, non-U.S. and U.S. declines may eventually absorb surplus capacity—unless geopolitical risk fades abruptly.[10:12] Exhibit A: U.S. Finances—Deficit Path, “All Other,” and Tariffs (Exhibit A)Baseline shows the deficit improving from ~$1.9T to $1.5T, still elevated vs pre-COVID. “All other” outlays ballooned post-COVID; trimming continues to be the lever. Medicaid ($600B federal share) has been flat; tariffs add revenue at the margin, though sky-high projections are debated.[13:21] Rates, the Fed, and the Long End (Exhibit A)Debate: Should the Fed cut soon? Hunt expects policy rates drifting toward ~3–3.25% next year while the 10-year could stay ~4.5–4.75% given heavy Treasury supply and QT runoff. Jason worries about services inflation and sees labor data stronger beneath the surface; rate-cut timing remains contentious.[18:43] Software History (Part 7): From Turing to Transformers (—)Jason and Mike trace AI’s arc: 1950s Turing test; rule-based “expert systems”; 1990s machine learning and Deep Blue’s hybrid approach; then 2012’s ImageNet breakthrough as GPUs turbo-charged neural nets; finally 2017’s Transformer architecture underpinning today’s LLMs. Big idea: the future blends deterministic (classical) and probabilistic (AI) programming—knowing when to use each unlocks real productivity.[31:53] Healthcare Quick Hit: Berkshire Buys $UNH (p. 19)UnitedHealth pops onto the memo as large investors disclose stakes. The crew riffs on whether a Berkshire position could nudge governance and strategy—even as skepticism about UNH’s model lingers.[32:48] MFN Pricing & the PBM Squeeze (p. 19)“Most favored nation” pressure pushes pharma to sell more directly, compressing the gross-to-net gap historically captured by PBM rebates. If PBMs lose take-rate and transparency rises, margin structures across the channel could reset.[33:50] MAHA, FDA, and Bending the Cost Curve (p. 19)Positive read-throughs on FDA process changes; big win is healthier inputs (nutrition) that reduce downstream “sick-care” spend. The team sees a potential inflection toward better outcomes per dollar.[35:14] Next Week & Wrap (—)Biotech history is teed up for an upcoming 10-minute segment. Keep an eye out for stitched “software history” and “chip history” compilation episodes in the feed.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESA wide-ranging tour this week: oil demand vs. spare capacity, U.S. gas and fiscal tracks, and the cloud era’s security shocks that boosted both AWS and CPU demand. We close on healthcare policy, Intel’s maneuvering, Nvidia’s China fee, and what Snowflake/Salesforce/ServiceNow signal for AI ROI.[00:00] IntroMike sets the table for another 30-minute sprint through energy, tech, and healthcare, and points listeners to the Cash Flow Memo for exhibits and company pages.[00:00] DisclaimerStandard reminder: informational only; do your own work.[00:00] World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt notes oil “hanging in at 60” as OPEC+ countries aren’t meeting raised quotas—implying true spare capacity may be overstated. Demand growth has cooled: 2025 is up only ~0.5 mb/d vs. +1.4 mb/d in 2023, with China the swing factor (15.2 → 16.1 → 16.2 mb/d). This tempers bullishness even as quota compliance lags.[02:08] U.S. Gas Demand/Supply (Exhibit B)U.S. gas output averaged ~106 bcfd in 2025 and is running ~107; 2026’s 108 looks plausible. Gas-for-power use is flat YoY after years of +~1.5 bcfd growth, with fewer coal retirements and more solar capacity changing the stack. Policy/tax-credit shifts could slow new wind/solar adds, keeping an eye on balances.[03:11] U.S. Fiscal Picture (Exhibit A)Projected deficit improvement from ~$1.9T to ~$1.5T in FY26 reflects lower rates, modest spending trims, and targeted savings. Near-term risk is a pre-Oct 1 continuing resolution. Mike flags BLS job revisions softening the labor picture, and Hunt notes markets will parse the Fed Chair’s Jackson Hole speech for a potential 25 bp path.[05:43] Software History Part 6: Cloud ComputingJason traces AWS’s 2006 origin story (holiday-driven overbuild → rentable compute → managed services), plus REST and the API economy making zero-CapEx startups viable. OAuth tokens improved security UX but created token-theft risk; Spectre/Meltdown forced software mitigations that slowed CPUs ~10–20%—pushing some customers to buy more compute and organically lifting AWS spend.[13:32] AWS Segment Breakout & Lessons (p. 1)Hunt recalls the period when AWS was “other” before driving a re-rating as its profits eclipsed the legacy retail engine. The takeaway: durable, high-margin infra with years of head start can reset how the market values a conglomerate’s sum of parts.[15:04] AWS Moat & Switching Costs (p. 1)Mike and Jason discuss AWS’s growth and high switching costs; once landed, enterprise workloads tend to stay. Anecdotes include a CIA contract where AWS beat IBM on perceived security despite higher price, underscoring trust and managed security as part of the moat.[18:00] Healthcare News & Policy (p. 15, 19, 20)Items include the “Patients Deserve Price Tags Act” (hospital price transparency) and FDA disclosure trends (more CRL data) that could train LLMs and compress regulatory timelines. Noted too: an Eli Lilly exec voicing support for MFN dynamics to realize better EU pricing rather than U.S. cuts.[19:47] Memo p.3: Intel—Governance, Strategy, and Scale (p. 3)Hunt and Mike recap leadership scrutiny around China ties and a White House visit aiming to stabilize plans. Intel’s 10-Q flags that proceeding on the next leading-edge node likely requires a cost-sharing anchor customer—else more TSMC outsourcing. Scale economics dominate; policy levers (ownership stakes, tariffs) may be used to bridge the gap.[23:03] Nvidia’s China Fee & Industrial Policy (p. 3)Mike notes a 15% fee on Nvidia chips sold into China; Hunt/Jason debate authority, goals, and realpolitik (e.g., rare earths). The crux: keeping China dependent on Western silicon while managing leakage of high-end parts (H100/Blackwell) vs. allowing “dumbed-down” SKUs.[26:14] Tech Updates: Tesla, Blackwell TCO, and AI in SaaS (p. 3-4)Tesla launches a six-seat Model Y variant. Early reads suggest GB200 data-center TCO ~1.6× H100, so performance must scale accordingly to justify ROI. Salesforce appears slow to commercialize AI externally even as Benioff touts 1/3 of internal work done by AI; ServiceNow cites ~5% opex reduction with AI features gaining traction.[29:12] What Does Snowflake Do (for AI)? (p. 4)Mike/Jason explain Snowflake’s role unifying messy enterprise data (e.g., Salesforce) for BI and now AI—becoming the “source of truth” and a natural enclave to run/training workflows across clouds. Dirty upstream data can bottleneck AI adoption, which helps explain Salesforce’s challenges and Snowflake’s positioning.[31:22] Wrap & Next WeekThe team plans to extend software history and compare Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake’s AI monetization paths. Stay tuned for deeper dives on AI ROI across the enterprise stack.Closing: If you found this helpful, grab the full Cash Flow Memo (with Exhibits A–C and company pages) and share the episode with a friend. Questions for the hosts? Drop them in the comments for next week’s mailbag.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational pur

SHOWNOTESA fast tour across energy, technology history, and healthcare—then a spirited debate on Tesla’s path: robotaxis or humanoid robots. Plus: where oil and gas balances sit now, what built Web 2.0, and why some healthcare names look interesting on cash flow.[00:00] Intro Welcome to Telltales with Mike, Jason, and Hunt, setting up a deep dive into energy, technology, and healthcare with the companion Cash Flow Memo. Quick reminder: this conversation is for informational purposes only.[00:00] Disclaimer Standard investment disclaimer on doing your own work and limitations of the information shared.[00:00] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt frames oil as a macro story: a cordial Trump–Putin meeting likely won’t yield a Ukraine ceasefire, keeping sanctions risk—and prices—elevated. Saudi output is marked up, Russia down; spare capacity sits near 3 mb/d. OPEC’s demand growth looks optimistic vs. the memo’s ~0.5 mb/d step-up, and the curve has flattened with less backwardation. Base case: WTI hovering in the low-to-mid $60s for now.[02:49] Exhibit B: U.S. Natural Gas Supply/Demand (Exhibit B)Gas is “in a swoon”: 2026 pricing hangs near ~$4 while the prompt month slides toward ~$3, as dry gas production ticks from ~106 to ~108 bcf/d. Associated gas from the Permian surprises to the upside; Gulf Coast hub pricing has even averaged under $1 at times, signaling localized oversupply. Expectations of lower Permian activity didn’t dent gas as much as hoped.[04:17] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Finances (Exhibit A)Deficit glidepath discussed: ~$1.9T this fiscal year toward ~$1.5T next year, aided by tariff/“excise & other” revenues and some spending flattening. Debt held by the public sits ~102% of GDP vs. ~81% pre-COVID (2019); bending that ratio down would be a major achievement. Musk’s provocative view on trimming the deficit by ~$1T is cited directionally.[06:28] Agenda & SegueThe crew carves out time for two threads: software history leading to modern AI, and a healthcare check-in before closing on Tesla.[06:45] Software History: Web 2.0 & the LAMP StackJason tracks the move from Web 1.0 to user-generated Web 2.0: blogs, wikis, YouTube, MySpace/Facebook. Google’s PageRank shift—links and probability (Markov chains) over keyword counts—reshaped discovery. The LAMP stack (Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP) plus permissive OSS licensing let startups ship dynamic apps cheaply and consistently. Proprietary stacks (e.g., .NET) faced friction from licensing and per-core pricing, nudging adoption toward open source.[16:22] Healthcare News & Stock Updates (pp. 15, 19)A surprise FDA leadership twist gets a mention. Harrow’s earnings show an inflection toward profitability: early data points suggest Vivi prescriptions outpacing Miebo among adopters, and another franchise growing >60% YoY with focus on retina practices. GLP-1 pills disappoint at Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Vertex research results were mixed, but the core CF franchise underpins valuation comfort. Lantheus draws lessons on management change, capital allocation, and now screens cheap (7–8× FCF) with potential strategic interest.[20:54] Sponsor: Oakcliff Sailing Update Dawn checks in from the road with regatta results, upcoming events, and where to find race coverage on Oakcliff’s Facebook page.[22:01] Robots vs. Robotaxis: The Tesla Debate (p. 1)Is Tesla’s trillion-plus valuation driven more by robotaxis or humanoid robots? Jason sees robotaxis arriving sooner; Mike argues humanoids may be closer than consensus. Training data is a bottleneck for general-purpose robots; roads have clearer rules than “the world.” If Tesla can deliver ~$0.25/mile robotaxi costs, mass adoption could crush car ownership economics. Musk’s claim that Tesla could surpass Apple’s value is weighed against timelines: it likely takes a decade—and a lot of autonomy deployed—to get there. Waymo may be the other credible FSD player, but Tesla’s commercialization path looks stronger after shifting from rules-based to deep learning.[33:13] Wrap & Tease They’ll return next week to finish software/AI history and dig into chip stocks. Closing reminders and standard disclaimer.Thanks for listening—grab the Cash Flow Memo for full exhibits, charts, and the 80-company update. If you enjoyed this episode, subscribe and share it with a friend who follows energy, tech, or healthcare.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warra

This week the Telltales crew unpacks shifting energy fundamentals, tough healthcare headlines, the rise of Web 1.0—and whether Tesla’s robo-taxi dream justifies a half-trillion price tag.[00:00] Intro Mike welcomes listeners, frames the show’s cash-flow focus across energy, tech, and healthcare, and reminds everyone to grab the accompanying memo.[00:47] Exhibit C – World Oil Supply & Demand Hunt revisits OPEC+ production moves, Saudi-U.S. coordination, and secondary sanctions aimed at Russia. He argues excess supply could keep WTI/Brent in the $50s before tightening 18–24 months out.[03:55] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook Gas futures slip as shoulder-season demand meets rising output (~108 Bcf/d). Despite near-term weakness, Hunt still sees 2024–25 averaging ~$4/MMBtu if production stabilizes.[05:05] Exhibit A – U.S. Fiscal Picture With Congress on recess and spending bills stalled, Hunt warns that continuing-resolution drama could spook capital markets. Political gridlock plus Epstein-file intrigue add to the uncertainty.[07:59] Technology & Healthcare Agenda The hosts outline three focus areas—healthcare, software history, Tesla—and promise a deeper Tesla dive later in the episode.[08:19] Healthcare Earnings & Policy (pp. 15)Jason highlights FDA leadership changes, a 250 % pharma tariff, and halted mRNA research grants. Vertex’s pain-drug miss and Lantheus’s pricing pressure contrast with fortress balance sheets and fresh buybacks, sparking a value-vs-value-trap debate.[15:56] Software History Part 4 – Network Effects & Web 1.0 From Microsoft Office lock-in to AOL’s ubiquitous CDs, Jason tracks the 1990s standards (HTTP, SSL, JavaScript) that enabled Internet scale—and set the stage for Amazon, eBay, PayPal, Yahoo, and Google.[20:40] Oakcliff Sailing Update A quick on-the-water report from Oakcliff International match-racing, with shout-outs to volunteers and rising teams.[22:18] Tesla Sum-of-Parts & Robo-Taxi Debate (p. 1)Hunt admires Tesla’s debt-light, cash-rich balance sheet but questions its $1 T valuation on just $5 B free cash flow. The trio models a $500-600 B option on robo-taxis and humanoid robots, comparing cost-per-mile economics to Uber and DoorDash, and muse on venture-style fleet financing.[32:30] Wrap-Up & Next Week Teaser Running long on enthusiasm, the hosts promise more on Tesla, Uber, and healthcare in the next episode—and sign off with the usual disclaimer.Catch the full memo at telltales.us and join us next week for deeper dives into markets that move your portfolio.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode we swing from macro storm clouds to silicon sunshine—probing debt risks, tracing software’s evolution, and spotlighting a Samsung-Tesla chip alliance that could turbocharge robotaxis.[00:00] Intro :00:47] Macro Risk: Could 2008 Happen Again? (Exhibit A)Hunt draws parallels between today’s oil-market risk premium and the 4Q 2008 liquidity freeze. He warns that a repo-market hiccup—not a bond auction failure—could be the trigger, given money-market–fund flight. Jason advocates 7 % across-the-board federal cuts, while Mike finds optimism in June’s surplus and $27 B tariff haul.[00:10:19] Software History – Part 3 Jason and Mike trek from IBM mainframes to the Apple Lisa and Windows 3.0. Highlights: Thomas Watson Jr.’s $5 B System/360 gamble, GM’s early OS, the birth of “software engineering” (1968), Xerox PARC’s WIMP GUI, and Bill Gates’ pivot from DOS to a ground-up graphical Windows.[00:19:21] Top Mark Rankings Spotlight Tyler introduces the Top Mark Olympic-class sailing ranking—bringing the race to LA 2028 and positioning Top Mark Capital as the sport’s data hub.[00:20:08] Healthcare Round-Up (pp. 15, 19, 20)Jason covers Roche’s direct-to-consumer MS drug move, the FDA exit of controversial pick Pradeep Vemuri, and Novo Nordisk’s growth-guidance cut amid GLP-1 competition. Discussion centers on PBM mark-ups, gene-therapy approvals, and Lilly’s competitive edge.[00:23:37] Tesla × Samsung: A Fab Deal (Page 1)Hunt lauds Musk’s “highest and best use” as Samsung commits billions to an Austin foundry for Tesla’s in-house AI chips. Mike recounts Tesla’s silicon lineage—from Nvidia to Jim Keller’s HW 5—and explains why owning capacity beats vying with Nvidia at TSMC. Jason calls it Intel’s missed opportunity.[00:28:04] Next Week Teaser & Sign-Off The crew previews Episode 2532: a deeper dive into Tesla’s 2 M-unit robotaxi strategy and the consumer shock of humanoid-delivered DoorDash orders. Listeners are urged to grab the memo and tune in next Wednesday.Thanks for listening! Download the memo at telltales.us, leave a review, and join us next week for more market storytelling.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week we weave through energy geopolitics, U.S. fiscal chess, breakthrough healthcare economics, and the exploding compute demands of frontier AI—plus part 2 of our Software History mini-series.[00:00] Intro [01:04] Oil Market War Premium & Russia Risk (Exhibit C)Hunt explains how secondary sanctions on Russian crude—now part of U.S.–China talks—add a $10-15/bbl war premium. Market oversupply persists, but geopolitical uncertainty keeps Brent in the mid-$60s.[02:22] Natural Gas Backwardation & OPEC Capacity (Exhibit B)Despite OPEC+ barrels returning, LNG prices remain backwardated. Oversupply could fade if new offshore and Permian projects stall, yet investors should stay patient before adding exposure.[04:05] U.S. Budget Scenarios & Rescission Strategy (Exhibit A)Hunt outlines a GOP plan to pass 12 spending bills, then trim via rescission to dodge Senate filibusters. Estimated FY 26 deficit could fall from $1.9 T to $1.5 T—Jason calls that “progress, but still daunting.”[07:04] Healthcare Round-Up (pp. 15, 20)• Vertex wins CMS support in 33 states for Casgevy, its $2.2 M CRISPR cure—savings outweigh costs for Medicaid.• Harrow licenses two Samsung biosimilars (including an Eylea rival), leveraging its ophthalmology sales force.• Tenet’s 23 % spike in exchange-patient admissions signals at least 20 % premium hikes ahead; brokers’ incentives deserve scrutiny.[11:54] Software History Part 2 – From Enigma to COBOL Mike & Jason trace WWII codebreaking: Turing’s Bombe, the “stored-program” breakthrough, and FORTRAN’s 1957 debut. Grace Hopper’s COBOL makes business computing accessible, seeding modern software.Ken Thompson’s Bell Labs team invents Unix and the C language, enabling software to hop across hardware platforms—the foundation of today’s macOS, iOS, and most cloud servers.[21:41] Sponsor Break – Oakcliff Sailing A behind-the-scenes look at repairing match boat #4 and training the next generation of marine-industry pros.[23:47] Big-Tech Earnings & OpenAI–Microsoft Friction (p 1)Ahead of Alphabet and Tesla prints, the crew debates Microsoft/OpenAI tensions and how Elon Musk’s portfolio complicates the AI landscape.[24:26] xAI’s Colossus 2 Compute Surge (p 1)Musk plans 550 k GB200/GB300 GPUs for training only—no inference—while OpenAI inks a 4.5 GW power deal in Abilene. Meta’s 6 GW push brings the trio’s new capacity to 12 GW.[26:37] Frontier-Model Arms Race (p 1)Is XAI iterating faster because its GPUs are clustered? Hunt thinks so; Mike notes Meta, OpenAI, and Oracle scrambling to match the single-site scale.[28:46] Looking One Year Ahead in Large Language Models (p 1)Data may be scarce, but synthetic data, bigger contexts, and reasoning engines should keep model quality on an exponential curve. Jason now defaults to reasoning models despite 50 × compute cost—latency is good enough.[31:38] Closing & Next Week More Software History and fresh cash-flow insights in seven days—download the memo, share the show, and stay healthy!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESMike, Jason, and Hunt connect the dots between geopolitics, AI infrastructure, and healthcare policy—always through the lens of cash-flow-focused investing.[00:00] Intro (Cover)Welcome to Telltales and the weekly Cash Flow Memo. Quick rundown of what’s ahead: energy, tech, healthcare, and a short history-of-software segment.[00:00] Oil Supply & the War Premium (Exhibit C)Spare capacity sits near 3 Mb/d, but conflict risks keep Brent in the mid-$60s. Trump’s proposed secondary sanctions on Russian oil add fresh uncertainty; crude would likely price in the $50s without these pressures.[05:33] U.S. Natural Gas Snapshot (Exhibit B)Futures support ~$3.80 gas in ’25 and $4 in ’26. Bottlenecks in Marcellus and high costs in Haynesville curb supply growth while LNG demand rises—limiting downside for efficient producers.[07:44] Fiscal Policy & Musk Politics (Exhibit A)A small rescission bill could pave the way for deeper cuts and a Musk-Trump détente. Implications for spending, inflation, and Tesla sentiment.[09:10] Punch Cards to IBM: A Software Origin Story From the 1801 Jacquard loom to Babbage’s Analytical Engine and Ada Lovelace’s first algorithm, Jason and Mike trace how punch cards seeded modern computing, the 1890 census tabulator, and ultimately IBM—mirroring today’s AI disruption debates.[16:58] Healthcare Check-in (pp 15, 20)Lantheus ($LNTH): CMS keeps mean-unit-cost pricing, delaying but not destroying value—stock at ~14× cash flow.Harrow ($HROW): Sales up 67 % QoQ; pharma-tariff chatter could hit biologics more than small molecules.[20:17] Big-Bank Earnings (p 13)$JPM, $MS, $GS, and $IBKR post strong free-cash-flow yields (~10 %) and richer buyback capacity—attractive for long-term compounding.[22:10] Google’s Windsurf Acquihire (p 1)FTC scrutiny forces a split “talent-plus-IP” deal, highlighting hurdles for AI M&A and changing startup exit math.[23:59] Enterprise Software & AI (p 2)Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake race to embed AI while shifting from seat licenses to consumption pricing—raising both opportunity and competitive pressure.[25:37] Oracle’s GPU Edge (p 2)Oracle secures early-run NVIDIA chips, scaling AI data centers to meet OpenAI-type demand—strategic positioning few can match.[26:38] Semis in Focus: NVIDIA vs. TSMC (p 3)$NVDA’s margins stay stellar, but $TSM’s massive CapEx underpins the ecosystem. Valuation gap raises questions about supply-chain power dynamics.[32:20] Wrap-Up & Next WeekDownload the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and join us in seven days for more data-driven market insights.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This week Telltales flies from oil barrels to GPUs, showing how energy, technology, and healthcare each reshape an investor’s cash-flow lens.[00:00] Intro[01:00] Exhibit C – Global Oil Balance (Exhibit C)Hunt flags disappointing demand growth (+0.5 Mb/d) against a 3-4 Mb/d spare-capacity cushion. Prices hover near $65 only because Middle-East risk keeps a volatility premium alive.[01:51] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook (Exhibit B)Dry-gas supply is capped at 106 Bcfd while LNG exports jump 2.5 Bcfd YoY. Power-sector demand has stalled, but the forward curve still implies $3.50-4.00/MMBtu—well above the 2024 trough of $2.40.[03:06] Exhibit A – U.S. Federal Finances (Exhibit A)The deficit is projected to fall from $1.93 T to $1.5 T, helped by prospective tariff revenue under a second Trump term. Lower issuance would be a tail-wind for Treasuries and the dollar.[03:49] GPU Revolution: A 3-Minute History (p. 3)An AI-generated voiceover races from Quake-era 3D cards to CUDA, ImageNet 2012, transformers, and ChatGPT—all highlighting how parallel processing unlocked today’s AI gold rush.[07:49] Will AI Become Sentient? Hunt presses Jason on whether LLMs are mere tools or future autonomous agents. The trio contrast Apple’s “bicycle” philosophy with Meta/OpenAI’s quest for super-intelligence.[15:50] Page 1 – Big-Tech Valuations Debate (p. 1)Apple and Alphabet trade at ~31× free cash flow versus Microsoft’s 50×, reflecting market worries about hardware disruption and search cannibalisation. Is Cupertino too risk-averse to catch the next wave?[22:54] Page 3 – Semiconductor Super-cycle (p. 3)NVIDIA’s historic $67 B FCF (57× multiple) dwarfs AMD and INTEL, while politically sensitive TSMC still trades at 60×. The hosts grapple with “trees-to-the-sky” expectations and supply-chain risk.[24:52] Oakcliff Sailing Update A quick detour to Nova Scotia celebrates new distance-race records and Oakcliff’s global youth-sailing calendar.[26:39] Healthcare Check-up Jason highlights Centene’s guidance withdrawal, shifting pharma-tariff timelines, and encouraging early data for Vertex’s non-opioid ICX pain therapy—all hinting at underwriting and reimbursement tail-winds.[29:05] Page 20 – Harrow Health Spotlight (p. 20)Management’s owner-operator mindset keeps the team bullish ahead of the next earnings print; sales execution is the near-term catalyst.[29:59] Next Week & Outro Chips history is officially “done”—software history (and CUDA’s dominance) is up next. Subscribe, share, and send your questions for the upcoming series on code and cash flow!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week the crew dissects energy demand plateaus, a surprising federal deficit outlook, and why performance-per-watt now rules both hyperscale datacenters and your smartphone—before closing with AI’s domination of medical diagnosis and fresh biotech data.[00:00] Intro [00:00:45] Exhibit C – World Oil Demand & SupplyHunt notes 2025 demand is now expected to edge only 0.5 Mb/d above 2024. Mature regions (U.S., EU, Japan) stay flat, China dips, and “Other Asia” disappoints. Supply wildcards include higher Saudi output, Russian maintenance issues, and U.S. sanctions holding Iran around 3 Mb/d.[00:02:14] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Demand & SuppplyWith 2025 Henry Hub futures ~$10/MMBtu below 2024, surplus capacity and flat power-sector demand could pressure prices—unless Middle-East tensions keep a risk premium. LNG exports finally lift in ’25-’26, but dry-gas production must stay disciplined to avoid a repeat of 2020’s glut.[00:04:36] Exhibit A – Deficit Math & the Dollar Hunt’s model shows FY-2026 deficit shrinking to ~$1.5 T on tariff gains and flat discretionary spend—even as interest costs climb. Holding public debt at ~100% of GDP would stabilize the dollar’s reserve-currency status, though Mike and Jason question the optimism.[00:11:17] Chip History – The Rise of ARM & Hyperscale SiliconThe trio recounts AWS’s 2006-2014 ascent and why Amazon’s Graviton ARM CPU (2018) eroded Intel’s data-center share from 90% to [00:20:31] Sponsor Break – Oakcliff Sailing UpdateA quick detour to Oyster Bay’s high-performance training and thunder-storm escapades.[00:21:24] Apple’s Siri Seeks Outside AI (p.1)Apple may license external LLMs to upgrade Siri, even as it flirts with its own privacy rules. Jason argues Cupertino should position hardware as the on-ramp for every model rather than build one giant brain in-house.[00:24:09] Model Mash-Up – Microsoft AI Beats Doctors (p.1)Microsoft research shows ensembles of LLMs debating diagnoses achieve 4× physician accuracy. Mike already cross-checks ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity the same way—suggesting a multi-model future, not winner-take-all.[00:25:32] Healthcare Spotlight – Vertex & NIH Transparency (p. 15)Vertex’s phase-III kidney drug competitor hit 46% protein reduction vs. Vertex’s prior 66%, keeping VRTX best-in-class. Jason pegs CF cash flows at ~$400/sh of value, so today’s share price barely charges for the pipeline. NIH will require publicly funded studies to go open-access, potentially reshaping peer review.[00:27:35] RFK Jr. & Agency Talent (Exhibit A)Despite political controversy, RFK-era health agencies attract standout personnel, signaling renewed credibility.[00:28:12] Medicare & Medicaid Fraud Crackdown (Exhibit A)DOJ leverages new software to expose a $14 B identity-theft scheme—one bite out of an estimated $100 B in annual fraud, underscoring digital ROI in government healthcare.[00:28:52] Looking Ahead – GPUs & Software History Next week wraps chip history with GPUs, then rewinds to punch-card-era software. Until then, stay healthy and keep cash flowing!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn Episode 2526 the Telltales crew races through this week’s exhibits, rewinds the semiconductor timeline, and sizes up fresh tech-and-healthcare catalysts—from Tesla’s robotaxis to a federal ruling that shields AI training data.[00:00] Cold Open[00:00:56] Exhibit C – Global Oil BalanceHunt flags his revised crude-supply model: U.S. output unlikely to hit 13 Mb/d, Russia drifting under 9.8 Mb/d, and Saudi barrels rising. A 3–4 Mb/d surplus keeps Brent range-bound as risk premia compress post-cease-fire.[00:01:50] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural-Gas OutlookDry-gas production plateaus near 106 Bcfd; the Permian slowdown and tepid power demand temper growth. LNG exports shine, storage draws tighten, and $4 Henry Hub looks sticky through ’26.[00:03:41] Exhibit A – Uncle Sam’s Cash-Flow StatementA first cut of the FY-26 forecast still can’t close the deficit gap. Hunt explains why reconciliation math and 60-vote gridlock leave structural reform to House budget hawks.[00:04:39] Sponsor Break – Oakcliff SailingMike spotlights Oakcliff’s blistering boat-yard schedule and scholarship program, urging sailors to pay it forward.[00:05:26] Chip History: TSMC to AMD’s 64-Bit Breakthrough (p3)Morris Chang’s 1987 fab-only gamble births TSMC and unlocks fabless models. Jim Keller’s K7/K8 Athlon era briefly drags AMD to ~50 % x86 share, proving performance-per-watt can disrupt scale economics.[00:10:34] Distributed Computing & the Birth of AWS (p1)Jason recalls Yahoo/Google ditching multimillion-dollar mainframes for racks of $2 k servers, inventing “big data” along the way. Amazon’s 2006 epiphany—rent idle holiday capacity—spawns EC2 and S3.[00:15:23] Tech Trends: Who’s the Next AWS?Hunt games out winner-take-all odds. OpenAI owns mindshare, but Jason argues today’s AI and blockchain moves feel evolutionary, not the platform shift that cloud computing was.[00:17:51] Stablecoins & the GENIUS Act (p7)Mike/Jason debate Congress’s new bill mandating 1-for-1 Treasury backing. Bank-issued coins could soak up supply just as deficits balloon—yet Visa/Mastercard may cede little share if faster rails emerge.[00:19:42] Tesla Robotaxi Rollout (p1)Early Austin riders rave about the fully driverless service—another optionality boost to Tesla’s margin story.[00:19:50] Netflix Eyes Live TV (p4)A French broadcast deal hints at Netflix morphing into full-stack cable 2.0, chasing YouTube TV’s bundle play.[00:20:15] AI Fair-Use Win (p1)A California court says training an LLM on copyrighted books mirrors human reading—relieving Anthropic & peers from existential IP risk.[00:20:48] Harrow Adds BYQLOVI Rights (p20)For just $500 k up-front, Harrow tucks another ophthalmic asset into its commercial engine—classic bolt-on deal structure.[00:22:41] $HIMS vs. Novo Nordisk (p19)Novo yanks its GLP-1 direct-to-consumer pact, accusing HIMS of pushing compounded knock-offs. Mike calls out HIMSS’s dubious IP posture and healthcare conflicts.[00:24:34] Healthcare Rulebook: Price Transparency & Prior Auth (p15, 19-20)CMS signals mandatory net-price disclosure; HHS moves 280 M insured lives toward e-prior-auth to slash admin friction.[00:26:09] Taxing Pharma Ads (p15, 19)The White House floats nixing ad-cost deductions. Lilly’s $1.5 B budget and Regeneron’s spend make them prime targets—an indirect curb on DTC pharma blitzes.[00:28:04] Next Week: iPhone, GPUs & the Energy Cost of ComputeThe crew tees up Keller’s performance-per-watt legacy in mobile and modern AI training, promising one last chip-history chapter.Thanks for listening! Subscribe on telltales.us for the full memo and catch next week’s deep dive into Apple silicon and GPU economics.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESTelltales dives into the week’s Cash-Flow Memo with a global tour of oil markets, U.S. fiscal math, fast-moving FDA reforms, and the AI talent wars—plus a new national sailing ranking and a teaser for next week’s chip-history deep dive.[00:00] Intro (–)Mike, Hunt, and Jason set the stage for 30 minutes of energy, tech, and healthcare analysis, remind listeners of the Cash-Flow Memo at Telltales.us, and roll the standard disclaimer.[00:38] Iran Tensions & Spare Oil Capacity (Exhibit C)Hunt explains why fresh geopolitical alarms around Iran may fizzle out in a few weeks, leaving ~3.5 MMbbl/d of potential supply still sidelined. The hosts outline short-term implications for global crude flows and price risk.[01:35] Oil & Gas Price Outlook (Exhibit B)Reviewing latest strip prices, they note WTI firming to $72–73 while 2026 remains in backwardation. Natural-gas production appears to be leveling near 105–106 Bcf/d, bolstering Hunt’s $3.80–$3.90/MMBtu 2025 forecast and a constructive view for gas-weighted E&Ps.[02:48] U.S. Budget, Deficit & Medicaid Debate (Exhibit A)The Senate’s “big, beautiful bill” could trim the FY-27 deficit toward $1.6 T, but Hunt warns that savings must come from the “all-other” spending bucket. Mike highlights how California and New York face scrutiny over Medicaid outlays, which represent roughly one-third of California’s budget.[05:10] Healthcare Spending & Agency Leadership (Exhibit A)With RFK Jr.’s appointees running key health agencies, the team is cautiously optimistic that overall healthcare costs might flatten, echoing Medicaid’s recent plateau near $600 B. They argue real deficit progress is impossible without taming healthcare inflation.[05:50] RFK Jr. Guts Vaccine Committee (Exhibit A)Jason details RFK Jr.’s wholesale dismissal of all 17 CDC immunization-committee members—13 installed late in the prior administration—sparking worries about anti-vax influence. New appointees are expected soon, leaving policy direction uncertain.[07:27] FDA Reforms: Gene Therapy, AI & Two-Month Reviews (Exhibit A)Highlights from the FDA’s cell-and-gene roundtable: proposals to socialize million-dollar curative therapies and a pilot AI system already speeding protocol reviews. A new priority-review-voucher program could slash approval times from a year to as little as two months—worth $160 M in time value for drug sponsors.[13:26] Linking Healthcare Fixes to Fiscal Health (Exhibit A)Hunt argues that meaningful deficit reduction hinges on the success of such FDA and agency reforms; without healthcare savings, the spending problem remains unsolved.[14:09] Apple, Google & the AI Arms Race (Page 1)Jason warns Apple’s delayed Siri overhaul hands Android a nine-month head start, while Hunt questions the sustainability of Google’s $20 B/year default-search payments. The trio debates OpenAI’s potential antitrust complaint against Microsoft and the murky definition of AGI.[18:42] ILCA 7 Top-Mark Rankings Launch (–)Olympic hopeful Daniel Escudero introduces a transparent ranking system for U.S. ILCA 7 sailors, aimed at unifying domestic and international performance metrics and strengthening America’s 2028 Olympic bid.[20:02] AI Talent War & Meta’s $100 M Bonuses (p. 4)Meta reportedly dangles nine-figure packages to lure elite AI engineers away from OpenAI and Anthropic. Mike notes the scarcity of experts who can fully exploit rapidly advancing hardware, tilting the battlefield toward deep-pocket incumbents.[22:12] Vertex’s Type-1 Diabetes Cure & Other Healthcare Stocks (Page 15)Jason outlines how a new two-month FDA voucher could let Vertex ($VRTX) win approval for its stem-cell therapy within five years—transformative despite immunosuppressant hurdles. Hunt flags mixed trial results and the limited 60 k-patient addressable market.[24:25] Next Week: From Wintel to GPUs (–)Mike previews the continuation of their semiconductor history series—resurrecting AMD, the dawn of distributed computing, mobile’s rise, GPUs, and TSMC’s fabs.[25:25] Must-Listen: Morris Chang on TSMC (–)Hunt endorses the Acquired podcast’s long-form interview with TSMC founder Morris Chang, calling it essential for anyone investing in AI hardware; links will be in the episode email.[27:38] Outro & Subscribe (–)The hosts sign off, teasing next Wednesday’s show and encouraging listeners to join the mailing list at Telltales.us.Stay tuned, share the episode with a fellow market-watcher, and hit subscribe so you never miss our weekly memo-to-mic breakdown.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates hav

SHOWNOTESThis week Mike, Jason, and Hunt sprint through oil, gas, tariffs, chips, tech launches, AI financing drama, and the brewing revolt against pharmacy-benefit managers—wrapping with Harrow’s latest capital-allocation coup.[00:00] Intro [00:01] Exhibit C – Oil Oversupply & the Iran Stalemate (Exhibit C)Hunt explains why global crude stays firm near $65–66 despite clear oversupply, tracing it to dead-locked U.S.–Iran negotiations over centrifuges.[00:02] Exhibit B – Natural Gas Holds the Line (Exhibit B)Production hovers around 106 Bcf/d; flat U.S. power demand is offset by LNG exports and cold-weather consumption, keeping prices around $4.[00:03] Exhibit A – Tariffs & U.S. Fiscal Math (Exhibit A)Tariff receipts could hit $700 B if it reaches $60 B per month. Jason notes China-related levies may settle near 35 % (ex-fentanyl).[00:04] Rare-Earth Magnets vs. NVIDIA Chips: Trade-Deal Leverage (p.1)China throttles drone-part exports and magnets; the U.S. counters with chip restrictions—highlighting mutual dependencies and a possible “chips-for-magnets” swap.[00:07] CPI Calm Despite Tariff Talk (Exhibit A)May inflation data shows little price pressure so far, challenging economists’ warnings of tariff-driven CPI spikes.[00:07] Chip History – From 386 to the WINTEL Juggernaut (p.3)Mike and Jason revisit Intel’s pivot to CPUs, the rise of the 386, Microsoft’s DOS/Windows partnership, and the CISC vs. RISC debate that shaped desktop dominance.[00:14] Apple WWDC: Liquid-Glass UX & the Missing AI Play (p.1)Jason critiques Apple’s “liquid glass” interface—translucent icons that hint at an AR future—while lamenting Cupertino’s AI lag despite iron-clad customer lock-in.[00:18] xAI’s $5 B Debt Deal Stumbles (p.1)Morgan Stanley shelves a 12 % syndicated loan after Elon’s tweet-storm; Hunt wonders if weak X/Twitter revenue can support the spend.[00:19] Could Tesla Scoop Up xAI? (p.1)Jason weighs the pros and cons of rolling xAI into Tesla—synergies with FSD and humanoid robots versus dilution and distraction.[00:22] UnitedHealth, PBMs & the Rot in U.S. Healthcare (p.19)The crew argues that dismantling pharmacy-benefit managers is step #1 to break insurers’ “raise-premiums-faster-than-costs” model, potentially shrinking UNH’s growth engine.[00:27] Harrow Licenses BYQLOVI™ for Peanuts (p.20)Harrow (HROW) nabs U.S. rights to a nanoparticle steroid eyedrop for only $500 K—an ideal plug-in for its ophthalmology sales force and a textbook capital-allocation win.[00:29] Outro This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00] Cold Open[00:00:47] Exhibit C – World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt explains how OPEC + and Saudi Arabia are phasing curtailments out of the market—potentially adding 1.2 Mbbl/d in just three months—and why that could pressure crude prices if capacity rises to an 11 Mbbl/d run-rate.[00:02:09] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook (Exhibit B)Despite AI-powered data-center hype, gas‐fired power demand is flat; LNG exports remain the bright spot, expected to average 16 Bcf/d this year and 18 + next. With dry-gas output steady near 106 Bcf/d, Hunt believes $4 gas can hold.[00:03:04] Exhibit A – Federal Revenues & Spending (Exhibit A)The team dissects why revenues climb toward $5 T while expenses swell over $6 T, singling out interest costs and discretionary outlays—not Medicare/Medicaid—as the chief deficit drivers. Musk’s critique of “big and beautiful” budgets sparks debate on trimming the trillion-dollar gap.[00:08:00] Chip History: Intel’s Logical PivotMike traces Intel’s leap from DRAM to CPUs, IBM’s game-changing cross-licensing deal with AMD, and how founder intuition (Gordon Moore, Andy Grove) enabled the x86 juggernaut—raising questions about Intel’s later misses in mobile and AI.[00:14:00] Top Mark Rankings for ILCA 7 Sailing Guest Daniel Escudero unveils a transparent, points-based ranking system to track U.S. ILCA 7 sailors, aiming to boost Olympic competitiveness while rallying the sailing community.[00:15:58] Semiconductor Capacity Crunch — NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML (p. 3)Hunt and Jason unpack hyperscalers’ hunt for NVIDIA alternatives, TSMC’s monopoly on advanced packaging, and whether Intel’s Arizona fab can catch up. TSMC’s disciplined CapEx (~$40 B for 2025) signals another doubling of AI-chip throughput.[00:22:01] Meta’s Nuclear Power Deal (p. 4)Meta locks in output from an aging Illinois reactor, giving Constellation the confidence to invest in life-extension upgrades—an early example of data centers turning to baseload nuclear for green power.[00:23:18] Apple’s In-House AI Challenge (p. 1)Rumors swirl of Apple’s ChatGPT-class model; the hosts debate whether Big Tech has been sandbagging releases and what fast-follow strategies mean for AI moats.[00:25:38] BioNTech–Bristol Myers Cancer Deal (p. 15)A $3.5 B bispecific antibody partnership raises eyebrows: BioNTech de-risks promising oncology assets while Jason questions whether combo drugs outperform separate therapies.[00:27:47] Weight-Loss Drug Price War (p. 19)Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk cut GLP-1 prices toward $400/month as compounding pharmacies and next-gen oral pills loom, reminding investors that pharma “cash cows” have finite pasture.[00:30:04] UnitedHealth: Indispensable or Indefensible? (p. 19)With UNH shares halved and a new CEO, the trio spar over whether PBMs are too vertically integrated, if UNH can be re-formed, or if the system must “burn it to the ground” to lower costs—setting up next week’s deep dive.[00:32:55] Closing Thanks for tuning in! Grab the full Cash Flow Memo, share your thoughts on AI-chip capacity or healthcare reform, and subscribe so you never miss an episode.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team analyzes Nvidia's upcoming earnings amid 70% free cash flow margins, explores the fascinating history of Intel's founding by the "Traitorous Eight," and discusses major developments in AI competition and healthcare.[00:48] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand (Page 1) Hunt notes oil prices holding in the $60 range despite OPEC+ production increases of 400,000 barrels/day per month. The backwardation in futures has flattened out, suggesting US production may plateau and decline by 400,000 barrels/day annually as capex follows cash flow down.[01:15] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply (Page 1) Analysis of natural gas markets and production trends across major US basins including Permian, Haynesville, and Marcellus.[02:39] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses (Page 1) Discussion of federal deficit projections showing improvement from $1.93 trillion to $1.78 trillion. Mike highlights Elon Musk's disappointment with lack of spending cuts in the recent budget bill, which increased spending by $200 billion. Trump's tariff proposals would generate under $300 billion annually - about 7-8% of federal revenue.[04:05] Semiconductor History II: The Traitorous Eight & The Rise of Intel Mike corrects last week's history, explaining how William Shockley left Bell Labs to start Shockley Semiconductor, then eight key employees (the "Traitorous Eight" including Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce) left to found Fairchild Semiconductor with $500 each. Fairchild pioneered silicon wafers and photolithography for integrated circuits, with early contracts from the military including the F-14 Tomcat's flight computer. Intel was founded in 1968 by Noyce, Moore, and Andy Grove, initially focusing on DRAM memory chips.[09:28] Anthropic's New Models Challenge OpenAI (Page 1) Mike discusses Anthropic's new cutting-edge model beating benchmarks, noting their B2B developer focus versus OpenAI's consumer approach. The Microsoft-OpenAI alliance has evolved as both companies now compete for enterprise customers, with Microsoft supporting multiple language models including Anthropic.[11:38] Apple's AI Strategy Dilemma (Page 1) Hunt raises concerns about OpenAI's $6 billion valuation for Johnny Ive's new venture as a threat to Apple. Jason suggests Apple should become the platform for accessing all AI models rather than competing directly, similar to Microsoft's agnostic approach.[14:09] Google Search Under AI Threat (Page 1) Discussion of whether Google can maintain its search monopoly as AI transforms information retrieval. The team notes Google's AI responses are good but lack conversational follow-up, while users remain conditioned to traditional search queries.[16:52] Nvidia Earnings Preview & Competition (Page 3) Hunt highlights Nvidia's recovery from $90 to $130, trading at a 2% free cash flow yield with unprecedented 60-70% margins on $130 billion revenue run rate. Jason believes margins will hold for 1-2 years before ASICs potentially capture market share. Mike argues Nvidia's software ecosystem and datacenter-level solutions provide lasting pricing power, estimating ASICs may only capture 20% market share in three years.[22:03] Healthcare News GLP-1 drugs from Eli Lilly now available direct-to-consumer for $300-350/month versus $1000+ with insurance, using vials instead of pens for better dose control. A new blood test for Alzheimer's detecting beta amyloid was approved, enabling earlier diagnosis. CVS is closing all Arkansas pharmacies after the state banned companies from owning both PBMs and pharmacies, potentially foreshadowing national regulatory changes.Next week, the team will continue their semiconductor history series with Intel's rise to dominance and eventual decline. Download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us for complete financial analysis of 80 companies across these sectors.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, we explore the real drivers behind oil prices, analyze new trends in semiconductor manufacturing and AI infrastructure, and unveil the first in a series on the history of chips, software, and biotech. Plus, Regeneron makes a surprising buy.[01:00] Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt discusses Exhibit C, detailing global oil supply and demand trends. He notes that while demand is stable, excess capacity and increased output from OPEC+ could push prices lower. U.S. production is likely to flatten or decline slightly, contributing to a delicate supply-demand balance.[05:26] US Gas Market Overview (Exhibit B)Natural gas prices have stabilized around $3.80/MMBtu after a sharp fall from the Ukraine-driven 2022 spike. Hunt explains that supply increases, particularly from the Permian Basin, have kept pace with demand. Future price strength depends on whether supply growth continues.[07:20] Federal Budget and Deficit Outlook (Exhibit A)The team reviews U.S. government revenues and expenditures through 2026, highlighting modest deficit improvements but noting the need for further spending restraint. Hunt advises caution for investors and encourages keeping capital on hand in case of market dislocations.[11:08] Semiconductor History SegmentIn a new feature, the team begins tracing the history of semiconductors, starting with Bell Labs and William Shockley’s development of the first transistor in 1947. They discuss how early equity structures shaped Silicon Valley and set the tone for innovation-driven compensation models.[15:28] Big Tech and AI Model Shifts (Page 1)Jason explains a major shift in AI architecture toward reasoning-based models. He also covers announcements from Google I/O, including Gemini agent capabilities and enhanced video generation. OpenAI’s acquisition of Jony Ive’s startup ‘IO’ is seen as a countermove to Google’s strong showing.[19:37] Semicap and U.S. Fab Investments (Page 3)Discussion shifts to TSMC and Intel’s U.S. manufacturing expansions. Arizona fabs are scaling, but remain a fraction of Taiwan’s output. Intel’s foundry strategy faces skepticism but may appeal to customers like Nvidia seeking more capacity.[21:31] Tesla, OpenAI, and Strategic AI Infrastructure (Page 1)Tesla plans a $25B GPU investment to build out the Colossus data center. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s acquisition of ‘IO’ is framed as a strategic response to Google’s momentum. The episode questions whether OpenAI can maintain its innovation lead.[23:43] Oakcliff Sailing UpdateAn interlude featuring Oakcliff Sailing’s latest activities and upcoming races, including the Block Island and Annapolis-Newport races. A call for marketing help is included along with discounted SailGP tickets.[25:52] FDA Podcast and Healthcare Regulation (Page 19)Jason highlights an FDA podcast where the commissioner explores ideas for faster clinical trials. This could reduce burdens on pharmaceutical sponsors and accelerate innovation.[26:30] Regeneron Buys 23andMe (Page 19)Regeneron acquires 23andMe for ~$250M, gaining access to a large genetic database. Jason discusses the potential to mine this data for novel drug discoveries and why 23andMe failed to capitalize on it.[27:30] Lantheus, Vertex, and Imaging Trends (Page 15)Positive trends for Lantheus emerge as imaging markets grow, especially for prostate cancer and Alzheimer’s diagnostics. Vertex faces competition from a reformulated generic pain drug. These developments shape expectations for both firms.[30:27] Top Mark Sailing RankingsMike unveils the Top Mark Rankings—a leaderboard supporting Olympic-class sailors en route to LA 2028. The initiative offers visibility and structure to U.S.-based competitors and is backed by Top Mark Capital.Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe for weekly deep dives into the companies, technologies, and economic forces shaping our future. For more, visit telltales.us.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode Mike, Jason, and Hunt weave together energy markets, semiconductor geopolitics, and healthcare shake‑ups to surface the cash‑flow signals that matter most for investors navigating 2025.[00:00] Intro[00:00:38] Oil & Gas Snapshot – Exhibits C & B (pp. 1‑2)Hunt dissects world crude supply, flagging likely production lifts from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Iran. Despite OPEC+ relaxation, Brent has held near $60‑$70, suggesting bearish expectations were largely priced in.[00:03:13] US Fiscal Stress – Exhibit A (p. 3)A proposed U.S. budget expands defense outlays instead of trimming them, leaving Medicare/Medicaid untouched. Jason notes DOJ plans for Rapid‑FI fraud‑prevention at CMS—software triaging payments before dollars leave the Treasury.[00:05:31] Semiconductor Decoupling: China vs NVIDIA (p. 4)The team explores how tariff walls could birth a “parallel CUDA” inside China. Jason argues NVIDIA’s global moat is its CUDA software layer; Huawei must replicate both silicon and ecosystem. Mike warns that isolation often breeds disruptive alternatives.[00:10:16] STEM Surge & ASML Imitation (p. 4)China graduates 1.2 million engineers annually and is racing to copy ASML‑grade lithography in‑house. Hunt frames it as strategic absorption of surplus engineering talent.[00:11:48] Sponsor Break – Oakcliff Sailing (n/a)A quick cinematic detour to Oakcliff’s foiling chase boats.[00:12:48] Tesla vs BYD: Premium or Mass‑Market? (p. 1)Mike maintains Tesla commands pricing power as long as its FSD remains materially ahead. BYD’s scale threatens margins, while Xiaomi’s FSD setback highlights liability clouds.[00:15:13] Berkshire AGM & Currency Risk With $348 B in Treasuries, Buffett flags dollar debasement as his top worry. Jason speculates Berkshire might deploy cash into healthcare‑system rescues or grid build‑outs under Greg Abel.[00:17:46] Q1 Tech Earnings: $MSFT & $META LeadMeta hikes CapEx despite cost‑cut talk; Microsoft beats street expectations, underlining durable AI spending.[00:18:06] AI Monetization & Google’s Defensive Stance Meta shifts transformer models into ad ranking. Apple hints at AI‑search alternatives, threatening Google’s 96 % share—Jason imagines personal‑shopper agents disrupting traditional search ads.[00:20:18] Healthcare Round‑Up IQVIA reports U.S. drug spend up 11.5 %, driven by GLP‑1s. Vinay Prasad’s FDA appointment spooks biotech; proposed NIH reproducibility mandate could reshape study economics.[00:22:51] Vertex: Pipeline Check & Russian IP Leak (p. 15)Despite market jitters, Vertex eyes 2026 FDA submission for a Type 1 diabetes cure; Russian generic CF therapy is a one‑off hit.[00:25:09] Lantheus: Diagnostics Thrive Amid Setbacks (Page 15)Cancellation of a prostate‑therapy program hurts the stock, yet Novartis’s competing therapy expands demand for Lantheus’s PSMA‑PET scans. Tau‑PET for Alzheimer’s heads to the FDA next quarter.[00:27:00] Harrow & Dry‑Eye Market Potential (Page 20)Ophthalmologists praise Harrow’s Vevye; earnings tomorrow will gauge uptake velocity.[00:27:35] Oral GLP‑1 Pills – The Next Obesity Wave (Page 19)Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk advance daily tablets, enabling dose flexibility. Micro‑dosing experiments by athletes hint at broader niches.[00:28:40] Outro & DisclaimersThe hosts wrap with a reminder: do your own work; positions may be held.Thanks for sailing with us. Subscribe, drop a review, and grab the weekly Cash‑Flow Memo at Telltales.us—your compass for markets in motion.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this fast-moving 30-minute round-table, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace and Hunt Lawrence assess how an accelerating economic split between the United States and China would ripple through energy, technology, healthcare, retail and more. Drawing on their weekly Cash-Flow Memo, they move page-by-page through a 20-page company list and three macro “Exhibits,” highlighting immediate supply-chain pain points and the longer-term strategic pivots each industry may need. (Nicoletti et al., 2025)A broad decoupling between the United States and China dominates this week’s discussion. Mike, Hunt and Jason walk through oil, gas and budget exhibits before racing down a twenty-page memo to gauge which companies—and whole industries—win, lose, or merely swerve if trade barriers harden.[00:00] Intro (n/a)Mike opens with a blunt warning that current China-chip policy is “shooting ourselves in the foot,” then welcomes listeners, sets the 30-minute agenda (energy / tech / healthcare) and plays the standard disclaimer.[00:00:45] China’s Oil Demand & OPEC Strategy (Exhibit C)Hunt notes China’s oil consumption “flat-lines” as EV adoption and a softer economy bite, while Saudi Arabia deliberately withholds 4 Mb/d of spare capacity to nudge a U.S.–Iran deal and keep prices firm.[00:02:20] U.S. Natural-Gas Snapshot (Exhibit B)Oil hovers near $60 and gas slips toward $4, but the bigger story is record dry-gas output (≈106 Bcf/d). LNG exports rise from 13 Bcf/d to 16 Bcf/d, keeping demand solid even as supply pressure increases.[00:03:15] Tariffs, Deficits & the Decoupling Thought-Experiment (Exhibit A)Tariff revenue (~$300 B) is “something—but not much” versus a $1-2 T deficit. Hunt argues spending must fall to $5.5 T by FY-2026 or risk failed Treasury auctions. The hosts decide to sprint through 20 memo pages to test how a full U.S.–China decoupling would hit specific companies today and over time.[00:07:24] Consumer & Logistics First-Look (pp. 20 – 17)Five Below faces supply-shock pain; Uber, DoorDash and Airbnb see muted but real pressure as Chinese outbound travel cools. Albemarle could actually benefit if U.S. lithium refining scales, while FedEx, UPS and Nike brace for cross-border friction.[00:12:16] Food, Hospitality & Beverage (p. 16)Hilton suffers from falling international traffic; Starbucks and McDonald’s risk lost China earnings; Chipotle and Celsius feel minimal direct effects, though Chipotle’s avocado pipeline stays on watch.[00:12:52] Pharma & Rare-Earth Bottlenecks (p. 15)High margins give Pfizer, Moderna and peers tariff-absorbing room, yet Lantheus and Novartis depend on rare-earth isotopes, and Vertex still manufactures heavily in China—raising near-term supply-chain headaches.[00:15:08] Heavy Equipment & Industrials (p. 14)Caterpillar’s China plants become a liability, but Deere touts COVID-era playbooks that diversified its bolt-and-washer suppliers; Generac and TDG watch input costs but are structurally resilient.[00:16:10] Banks & Upstream Energy (pp. 13 – 11)JPMorgan, Goldman and Interactive Brokers often thrive on volatility; shale producers can throttle cap-ex if crude weakens; LNG policy quirks (cash penalties on Chinese-built tankers) add risk to exporters.[00:17:20] Retail Supply-Chain Stress Test (pp. 10 – 8)Empty shelves loom at Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s if Beijing throttles exports during the critical holiday-ordering window—port activity on the U.S. West Coast is already down sharply.[00:18:50] Payments & Telecoms (pp. 7 – 6)Visa, Mastercard and PayPal feel mild drag from lower travel spend, while Comcast, Charter, AT&T and Verizon are largely insulated.[00:19:11] Media & Advertising Dependence (p. 4)Netflix’s China footprint is tiny, but Meta’s U.S. ad buyers still rely on Chinese-made goods; a consumption slowdown could trim revenue despite Meta’s global scale.[00:20:06] Semiconductors & Diverging Tech Stacks (p. 3)Nvidia’s real China exposure remains opaque; decoupling may spur Huawei-led domestic GPU designs and alternative EUV lithography paths, while TSMC hedges with six advanced fabs plus a new R-and-D hub in Arizona.[00:26:33] Enterprise Software & Data Centers (p. 2)Broadcom’s hardware faces tariff risk; Oracle’s database business is sizable in China; Salesforce, ServiceNow and Snowflake are affected indirectly through data-center gear assembled in China.[00:27:36] Oakcliff Sailing Interlude (n/a)A quick update from the deck of the JB-66 en route to Oyster Bay showcases ongoing support for Oakcliff training programs.[00:28:22] Big Tech & E-Commerce Reality Check (p. 1)Apple’s high-end iPhones still rely on China’s skilled assembly lines, with India ramp-up years away. Amazon mirrors Walmart’s “empty-shelf, higher-cost” dilemma—your $10 USB-C cable may soon cost $15 if production reshoring proves pricey.[00:31:00] Closing & Next-Week Preview Hunt tees up a deeper dive on Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla valuations, jokes that New York has out-weathered San Diego lately, and sign

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses Tesla's robotaxi rollout, healthcare changes under the Trump administration, and Netflix's potential foray into sports streaming. They analyze the implications of these developments on their respective industries and explore future possibilities.[00:00:23] Intro Mike welcomes listeners to the Telltales podcast, where the hosts dive deep into energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:00:54] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt notes that ongoing discussions with Iran and Russia's willingness to extend the Easter truce reduce the likelihood of sanctions in the near term, leading to an oversupply of oil compared to demand. However, he believes Saudi Arabia will maintain discipline in the market to keep Iran happy.[00:03:45] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Hunt highlights the decline in natural gas prices for 2026 and the flatline in power demand, despite the industry's efficiency. LNG demand is expected to make up for the lack of growth in power demand.[00:05:21] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES The team discusses the challenges in reducing the deficit, with Doge's efforts to find waste and inefficiency falling short. They anticipate difficulties in achieving significant spending cuts under the Trump administration.[00:07:24] Tesla's Robotaxi Rollout (Page 1) Jason and Mike discuss Tesla's announcement of launching a 20-car robotaxi fleet in Austin, expressing disappointment in the small scale and the presence of drivers in the vehicles. They compare Tesla's approach to Waymo's autonomous vehicle program.[00:18:46] Oakcliff Sailing Dawn Riley provides an update on Oakcliff Sailing's activities, including boat preparations, events, and collaborations.[00:20:21] Healthcare News (Page 19) Jason discusses the FDA's plan to phase out petroleum-based food dyes, the importance of a healthier population in reducing healthcare costs, and the Trump administration's executive order addressing various aspects of the healthcare system, such as the "pill penalty," Medicaid accounting, and PBM transparency.[00:27:00] Netflix Earnings & Future of Sports Streaming (Page 4) The team analyzes Netflix's strong performance and its potential to venture into sports streaming. They discuss the challenges and opportunities for Netflix in acquiring sports content and the evolving landscape of sports media rights.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, providing insights into the future of transportation, healthcare reforms, and the streaming industry. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions on these subjects and their potential impact on investors.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this week’s Cash Flow Memo, the team examines the Fed’s market impact on tariffs, energy markets, and tech giants’ AI strategies. Hunt opens with Trump’s rapid tariff reversal amid bond auction jitters, then walks us through oil & gas supply/demand, U.S. budget dynamics, and the implications for AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META, Walmart, Uber & DoorDash. We also pause for a message from Oakcliff Sailing and close with healthcare, energy, and financial sector updates.00:00 Cold Open: Trump’s Tariff Retreat 00:40 Exhibit C – World Oil Supply/Demand Analysis 01:02 Exhibit B – U.S. Gas Demand/Supply Trends 03:08 Exhibit A – U.S. Government Revenues & Expenses 07:34 Page 1 – Apple’s AI & Tariff Headwinds 10:51 Page 1 – Microsoft Copilot Adoption 12:44 Page 3 – NVIDIA’s H20 Export Ban Fallout 14:30 Page 4 – Netflix & Meta FTC Testimony 17:41 Page 8 – Walmart vs. Amazon 4‑Hour Delivery 19:42 Page 20 – Uber & DoorDash Tariff Immunity 23:37 Sponsor Break: Oakcliff Sailing Update 25:16 Healthcare News: Eli Lilly & Food‑Additive Rules 27:33 Energy Updates (Pages 10–12) 32:14 Financials: Q1 Earnings for JPM, MS, GS, IBKR 35:17 Closing Remarks & Next Week’s Preview This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this abbreviated episode, Mike and Jason discuss the recent tariff issues between the US and China, their potential impact on the tech and healthcare industries, and the implications of NVIDIA's AI breakthroughs for data center efficiency. They also compare the resilience of Coca-Cola and NVIDIA as investments during a potential recession.[00:00:54] Intro The hosts explain the reason for the abbreviated episode due to recording issues and announce the focus on healthcare and tech topics.[00:01:50] Tariff 90-day Pause Mike and Jason discuss the recent 90-day pause in tariff implementation announced by Trump, noting that China was singled out among all global economies. They speculate on the potential national security implications and the US's dependence on China for critical supply chains.[00:03:55] Tariff Loopholes The hosts discuss a loophole in the tariffs, where landing a GPU in Canada or Mexico would qualify for a 0% tariff under the USMCA trade agreement. They question the effectiveness of the tariffs given the ease of circumvention.[00:04:44] Datacenter Capex Pullback? Mike and Jason discuss the potential impact of Microsoft canceling data center capacity and leases on the hyperscalers' CapEx spending. They consider the role of OpenAI's partnership with Oracle in this shift and the implications for NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300 demand.[00:07:36] Other Capex Announcements The hosts mention Google's reaffirmation of their $75 billion CapEx commitment and OpenAI's large funding round, suggesting that there are still willing buyers even if there is slack in GB200 demand.[00:07:59] Another 'DeepSeek' Moment, This Time from NVIDIA Mike and Jason discuss NVIDIA's announcement of optimizing Meta's Llama model to produce better reasoning than DeepSeek at half the size. They highlight the importance of software improvements alongside hardware advancements and the potential for Hopper servers to remain useful by running these optimized models.[00:11:34] Coke vs. NVIDIA The hosts compare the investment prospects of Coca-Cola and NVIDIA, both trading at similar earnings multiples, in the face of a potential recession. They discuss the risks to Coca-Cola's revenue from changes to the SNAP program and the growth potential of NVIDIA despite possible short-term challenges.[00:13:49] Healthcare News Jason shares updates on Vertex's Journavx pain treatment, noting its widespread availability in US pharmacies. He also mentions Trump's promise of major pharmaceutical tariffs, though the timeline remains uncertain given the 90-day tariff pause.The episode concludes with a reminder from Warren Buffett to embrace market downturns as opportunities to "eat more hamburgers while they're cheap."NVDA 0.00%↑ KO 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team dives deep into healthcare investing with a focus on Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Lantheus Holdings. They also discuss Apple's AI challenges, the complexities of secure government communication, and the outlook for energy markets in light of geopolitical uncertainties and the hunt for federal spending cuts.[00:00:00] Intro Mike welcomes listeners to the Telltales podcast, where the hosts bring the weekly Cash Flow Memo to dive deep into energy, technology, and healthcare investing.[00:00:38] Exhibit C: World Oil supply and demand (Page 1) Hunt discusses the uncertainty around Russian sanctions and Iran's oil production, noting that the oversupply of oil is not likely to be reduced by sanctions alone.[00:01:44] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Page 1) Hunt highlights the increase in LNG demand by 1.5-2 Bcf/d, driven by faster-than-expected capacity ramp-ups at Venture Global's Plaquemines Parish and Cheniere's Corpus Christi projects. Gas prices for 2025 and 2026 are projected at $4.40.[00:02:47] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Page 1) The team discusses the challenges of finding $500 billion in spending cuts as the House moves to increase the debt ceiling. Actual work on reducing spending from $6-7 trillion will likely be delayed until the 12 expenditure bills are addressed.[00:03:45] Apple's AI Struggles (Page 1) Jason and Mike analyze Apple's challenges in developing a generative AI version of Siri, with a potential release not expected until 2027. They discuss the company's leadership changes, software issues, and the complexities of creating a secure, AI-powered virtual assistant.[00:10:10] Security, Signal App, and Government Communication The hosts explore the challenges of secure communication for government officials, discussing the limitations of traditional secure facilities (SCIFs) and the adoption of apps like Signal. They also touch on the trade-offs between transparency and the quality of decision-making in large organizations.[00:18:54] Healthcare Updates Hunt introduces a discussion on healthcare investing, focusing on Lantheus and Vertex Pharmaceuticals as quality businesses with strong cash flows, despite potential risks from reduced Medicare and Medicaid spending.[00:20:12] Company Analysis: Vertex Pharmaceuticals Mike dives into Vertex Pharmaceuticals, discussing the company's unique history, its successful pivot to cystic fibrosis treatments, and its promising pipeline in non-opioid pain management. He emphasizes the importance of investing in companies with strong capital allocation and long-term growth potential.[00:25:45] Company Analysis: Lantheus Holdings Jason explains Lantheus Holdings' business in radio diagnostics for prostate cancer imaging. While current growth has stalled due to market saturation, he highlights the potential for increased demand driven by new radiopharmaceutical treatments and the company's optionality in Alzheimer's diagnostics.[00:28:57] Vertex Pharmaceuticals Diabetes Moonshot Discussion The team discusses Vertex's early-stage but promising type 1 diabetes treatment, which has been accelerated from phase 1 to phase 3 trials. They emphasize the importance of investing in companies with strong core businesses and considering pipeline programs as optionality.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, providing valuable insights into healthcare, technology, and energy investing. Tune in next week for more in-depth discussions, starting with a deeper dive into healthcare companies like Vertex, Lantheus, and Harrow.VRTX 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in energy, technology, and healthcare. They analyze the potential impact of a second Trump term on oil and gas markets, dive into Nvidia's AI dominance and the future of inferencing, and explore Tesla's challenges and opportunities in the evolving EV landscape.[00:00:55] Energy Market & Oil Supply Discussion (Exhibit C) Hunt believes that oil supply is unlikely to change based on the recent Putin-Trump phone call. He suggests that the US Treasury may curtail some Russian production and discusses the potential for conflict between Israel and Iran, which could tighten the oil market.[00:03:40] Natural Gas and LNG Update (Exhibit B) Hunt notes that natural gas demand is good, and LNG facilities are being approved under the Trump administration. He highlights the increase in power demand for natural gas and the potential for further growth in LNG exports.[00:06:54] US Government Fiscal Policy & Budget Outlook (Exhibit A) Hunt discusses the challenges of reducing government spending and the deficit, particularly in the "all other" category. He emphasizes the need for the Trump administration to propose a budget with significant spending cuts and hopes for economic growth to lower the debt-to-GNP ratio.[00:10:28] 2 Podcast Recommendations Mike recommends an interview with Scott Bessent on the All In Podcast, which covers the administration's plans for tariffs and their agenda. Hunt suggests listening to a three-hour podcast interview with Morris Chang, the founder of Taiwan Semiconductor, for those interested in the tech industry.[00:14:02] Tesla and EV Market Developments Jason discusses the challenges facing Tesla, including public backlash, declining sales in China, and competition from BYD's fast-charging technology. Mike mentions that Tesla has obtained a permit for testing their robotaxis in California, which could signal progress in their self-driving technology.[00:17:35] Healthcare Earnings and Drug Developments Jason provides an update on Harrow's preliminary earnings and the market's positive reaction, despite the delayed release of their 10-K. Mike highlights the potential of Harrow's Triessence drug and its patent protection through 2029.[00:22:00] Technology Update: Nvidia Investor Day & AI Inferencing Jason and Mike discuss the key takeaways from Nvidia's Investor Day, focusing on the company's advancements in AI inferencing, power efficiency, and data center optimization. They explore Nvidia's competitive position against hyperscalers like Google and AWS, and the potential impact of their new Blackwell chips.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, providing insights into the latest developments and potential future trends in energy, technology, and healthcare. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions and analysis.NVDA 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ HROW 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

ShownotesIn this episode, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence cover the latest in energy, technology, healthcare, and updates on U.S. fiscal policy. The conversation explores recent developments in semiconductor manufacturing, natural gas and oil markets, and innovative breakthroughs in gene sequencing.[00:00] IntroMike introduces the episode and highlights key discussion topics including energy, technology, and healthcare. He reminds listeners to download the accompanying memo for detailed financial data and analysis.[00:43] World Oil Supply & Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt discusses recent adjustments in oil supply from Russia and Saudi Arabia, noting increased global surplus and largely stagnant demand. Despite speculation about China, actual demand growth is minimal. Geopolitical factors involving Russia and Iran suggest uncertainty, potentially pointing to flat or declining oil prices ahead.[02:10] US Gas Demand & Supply Outlook (Exhibit B)Natural gas production is increasing significantly, supported by robust LNG facilities coming online. Although there’s significant public discussion about power demand driven by data centers, actual demand growth remains steady, tracking closely with previous years’ growth patterns.[03:16] US Government Revenues and Expenses (Exhibit A)A continuing resolution passed in the House faces a contentious path in the Senate, involving potential filibuster drama. Speaker Michael Johnson pledges to pass all 12 expenditure bills by July, a significant change from recent fiscal practices. Discussions highlight the challenges and necessity of reducing the deficit primarily through spending cuts in defense, social security, and Medicaid.[06:46] TSMC and Intel’s Potential Fab Deal (Page 3)The team explores Intel’s rumored deal to sell fab capacity to TSMC and major chip companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom. They analyze strategic considerations, antitrust concerns, and geopolitical implications, highlighting both companies’ massive investments in Arizona facilities and their significance for U.S. strategic interests.[21:41] AI Developments and OpenAI’s New API (Page 1)Mike reviews recent AI news, including OpenAI’s release of a new API for developers, enhancing the integration of AI into products. Apple’s delays in AI advancements contrast starkly with competitors actively pursuing AI-focused smartphones, including ventures by Perplexity and Johnny Ive in partnership with Sam Altman.[24:46] Healthcare Innovations: Roche and Gene Sequencing (Page 15)Jason details Roche’s recent breakthrough in gene sequencing technology, potentially lowering costs significantly compared to current methods like those from Illumina and PAC Bio. Roche’s innovation promises affordable sequencing with improved accuracy, signaling broader adoption and accessibility for genomic sequencing technologies.[29:47] RFK Jr.’s FDA Reforms and Healthcare Updates (Page 15, 19, 20)The episode covers Robert F. Kennedy Jr.‘s reforms within the FDA, aimed at increasing scrutiny on non-natural substances in food. Vertex Pharmaceuticals also receives attention, with recent authorization to sell its new medicine, supported by OptumRx’s involvement in hospital distribution plans.The episode wraps up with brief insights on Tesla’s reduced reliance on the Memphis GPU cluster in favor of its own Cortex One data center.Join us next week for more detailed discussions on Tesla’s strategies and other major industry movements. Don’t forget to subscribe and download the memo to stay informed!INTC 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ AVGO 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ MRNA 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ BNTX 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00] IntroThe episode kicks off with Hunt teasing Tesla’s potential for a step change via autonomous driving, followed by Mike’s welcome to the Telltales podcast and an overview of the Cash Flow Memo. Key points include the focus on energy, tech, and healthcare, with a disclaimer about the informational nature of the discussion. The hosts set the stage for a 30-minute deep dive into macroeconomic trends and investment ideas.[00:41] World Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt analyzes the 2025 oil supply and demand outlook, noting potential shifts due to U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran, alongside OPEC+’s planned production increase of 130-140,000 barrels per day starting April 1. He highlights a weak demand picture—up only 1 million barrels daily from 2024 to 2025—and speculates that lifting sanctions could lead to a surplus and lower oil prices. Key stat: Russia and Iran are curtailed by 600,000 and 800,000 barrels, respectively, in current estimates. The discussion underscores the speculative nature of these forecasts, with a likely hold on current projections for another week.[03:01] US Gas Demand and Supply (Exhibit B)The focus shifts to U.S. natural gas, where cold weather has boosted demand, but dry gas production is already at 105.5 Bcf/day, potentially rising further. Hunt notes LNG feed gas increases might offset this, with futures prices at $4 for 2025 and 2026—up from $2.40 in 2024—though he suggests $3.50 as a more realistic estimate. This segment highlights the delicate balance between production and price stability in the gas market.[03:41] US Government Revenues and Expenses (Exhibit A)Hunt discusses the fiscal situation, referencing the President’s address on waste and fraud but skepticism about spending cuts. He flags March 12 as a deadline for a continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown, doubting bipartisan support in the House. Key insight: Balancing the budget may hinge on Republican unity, a daunting task given political divides. Jason adds a critical view of the address’s professionalism.[04:47] Step Changes: Defining the Concept (Page 3)The hosts introduce “step changes”—dramatic revenue leaps like NVIDIA’s from under $10 billion to $130 billion annually—positioning it as a key investment strategy amid macro uncertainty. Hunt questions whether NVIDIA’s $3 trillion valuation can double again (unlikely), and explores Intel as a long-shot candidate. The discussion emphasizes finding companies with exponential growth potential in a volatile market.[06:48] Step Changes: NVIDIA 2016-2025 (Page 3)Mike reflects on NVIDIA’s rise from $6 billion to $130 billion in revenue, attributing it to early GPU adoption beyond gaming. He stresses buying at a fair price and holding long-term as a winning strategy, cautioning against overvaluation risks. This segment underscores the importance of timing and valuation in capturing step-change opportunities.[07:41] Step Changes: Level 5 Self-Driving (Page 1)Hunt pivots to Tesla, suggesting autonomous driving—not car sales—could drive a step change, despite softening demand in Germany and China. Jason and Mike explore the revenue potential of retrofitting 5-6 million Teslas for ride-sharing, estimating cash flows if costs drop to 25 cents per mile, though regulatory hurdles loom large. Key quote: “It’s inevitable that people are going to be using self-driving cars” (Mike). The trio debates whether Tesla could match Uber’s $40 billion revenue run rate with higher margins, projecting $20 billion in free cash flow by 2028.[19:03] Step Changes: Netflix, Meta, & Spotify (Page 4)Hunt previews next week’s focus on Netflix’s $9 billion free cash flow leap, Spotify’s $1.5 billion shift via AI-generated content, and Meta’s recovery from a $150 stock low to nearly $700. Mike explains Netflix’s post-COVID cash flow surge from scaled-back spending, while Jason notes Spotify’s royalty challenges. This segment teases broader step-change examples beyond tech hardware.[23:17] Oakcliff Update Dawn from Oakcliff Sailing provides a brief interlude, updating listeners on a foiling camp in Pensacola and an April 5 art show, encouraging newsletter sign-ups at oakcliffsailing.org. This break offers a community touchpoint amid the investment focus.[24:27] DOGE & Medicare/Medicaid (Exhibit A)Jason tackles healthcare, citing a proposed $880 billion Medicaid cut over 10 years and $210 billion in unnecessary care plus $100 billion in fraud annually (2019 data). He suggests modern tech, like banking’s fraud detection, could offset cuts without slashing services, spotlighting Marty McCary’s FDA nomination focus on waste. Hunt ties this to Exhibit A, noting healthcare’s $1.8 trillion share of federal spending demands reform.[28:48] Can DOGE Balance the Budget? (Exhibit A)Hunt questions whether the DOGE initiative can close the $2 trillion deficit gap (revenue $5 trillion, spending $7 trillion), with debt at $37 trillion exceeding GNP ($30 trillion). Defense ($900 bill

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Donald Trump's 2024 election victory on energy, healthcare, technology, and the broader economy. They analyze key exhibits, dive into company-specific news, and explore the potential impacts of policy changes.[00:00:59] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects a Trump administration deal with China to tighten the oil market surplus in 2025 by phasing out Iranian barrels. Despite predictions of peak oil demand, the IEA still forecasts an increase in 2025 versus 2024.[00:03:06] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Hunt anticipates better natural gas demand under Trump, with power demand outperforming LNG. He believes the administration will lift the hold on new LNG projects and combined cycle plants, leading to stronger demand growth. However, a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine could lead to Europe resuming Russian gas imports, potentially impacting US LNG prices.[00:06:02] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt emphasizes the need to reduce the deficit in "all other" expenses and hopes Elon Musk will help save $200-300 billion. The goal is to get the deficit trend moving downward and lower the debt-to-GNP ratio through economic growth. The team also discusses Trump's proposed "golden visa" program as a potential revenue generator.[00:09:35] Healthcare Updates (Pages 15-16) Jason discusses Celsius's acquisition of Alani Nu, a move to buy growth in the energy drink market. Lantheus reports strong earnings, with the market recognizing the value of their diagnostics business. The team also touches on Vertex's non-opioid painkillers and their commercialization efforts.[00:12:04] Executive Order on Healthcare Price Transparency The team analyzes Trump's executive order mandating hospital price transparency, which aims to enforce the previously unenforced order from his first term. Jason explains the importance of price transparency in healthcare and the potential savings it could generate in the Medicare and Medicaid lines of the federal budget.[00:19:25] Will AI be 'Winner take all?' Discussing Microsoft CEO's statement that large language models will not be winner-take-all, Jason and Mike argue that the underlying data, not the models themselves, will be the key differentiator. They also discuss the importance of inferencing infrastructure and the potential for NVIDIA to benefit from the AI arms race.[00:25:26] Chip Export Controls (Page 3) The team discusses the potential impact of chip export controls on NVIDIA and the lack of significant competition from other players in the GPU market.[00:28:22] Tesla sales drop 45% in Europe (Page 1) Mike notes Elon Musk's unpopularity in Europe due to his support of the far-right party in Germany, which has led to a significant drop in Tesla sales. However, Jason highlights Tesla's innovations in injection-molded panels, which could dramatically reduce production costs.[00:29:33] Nvidia v. Tesla (Page 1) In the final segment, the team compares the investment potential of NVIDIA and Tesla at a hypothetical price of $150 per share. They discuss the advantages of each company and their potential for sustained growth and innovation.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics related to the 2024 election outcome, providing insights and analysis on the potential impacts across various industries. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions on energy, healthcare, technology, and the economy in future episodes.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week the Telltales Podcast dives into critical cash flow insights, spanning volatile oil and gas markets, U.S. government spending debates, and the disruptive potential of Tesla, NVIDIA, and healthcare innovators. Hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence unpack the numbers and trends shaping investment opportunities as of February 19, 2025.[00:00] Intro The episode kicks off with a teaser about autonomous driving’s future in the U.S., followed by Mike Nicoletti’s welcome to Telltales, introducing the Cash Flow Memo available at telltales.us. The hosts set the stage for a 30-minute deep dive into energy, technology, and healthcare, urging listeners to download the memo and follow along.[00:50] World Oil Supply / Demand (Memo Exhibit C)Hunt analyzes a modified Exhibit C, factoring in sanctions on Russia and Iran that erase the oil surplus, dropping supply to 1.2 million barrels daily under Saudi Arabia’s 9.5 million barrel production cap. He highlights the volatility, noting oil prices could swing from $50 to $80 depending on sanction outcomes, with skepticism about Saudi’s claimed 12 million barrel capacity. This segment underscores how geopolitical shifts could drastically impact energy investments.[03:03] US Gas Demand / Supply (Memo Exhibit B)Focusing on natural gas, Hunt notes U.S. dry gas production hitting 105 billion cubic feet (Bcf) daily, with slight increases in Canadian imports and residential demand (up to 25.5 Bcf due to a harsh winter). LNG feed gas holds steady at 14.5 Bcf, while power generation demand has surged 7 Bcf over five years, hinting at future growth tied to data centers. The discussion forecasts potential shifts in gas demand patterns as technology evolves.[04:18] US Gov’t Revenues and Expenses (Memo Exhibit A)Hunt explores proposed spending cuts of $600 billion to $1 trillion, targeting areas like Medicaid and defense (running at $900 billion), while revenues are expected to exceed $5 trillion in 2025. Jason and Mike discuss early Doge-inspired cuts, like terminating probationary federal employees, rolling government size back to 2023 levels. The Treasury Secretary’s focus on the 10-year rate as a fiscal target adds a fresh perspective to monetary policy debates.[07:59] The Most Interesting Companies, Regardless of Valuation (Memo Pages 1-3)Tesla and NVIDIA emerge as the episode’s standout companies, with Hunt praising Tesla’s $36 billion cash pile and $2 billion free cash flow, despite its trillion-dollar valuation, and NVIDIA’s $70 billion free cash flow at a $3 trillion market cap. Mike and Jason project NVIDIA’s revenue could hit $180-$200 billion in 2025, driven by hyperscaler CapEx, while Tesla’s autonomous driving potential sparks debate about its growth trajectory. This segment highlights their disruptive potential, valuation aside.[15:32] Meta’s 30k Miles of Fiber (Memo Page 4)Meta’s plan to lay 30,000 miles of fiber, skirting global hotspots like the South China Sea, signals massive data center expansion, potentially in India, boosting NVIDIA’s GPU demand. Mike and Jason see this as a backbone upgrade to ease infrastructure bottlenecks, reinforcing AI and tech growth trends. The discussion ties Meta’s move to broader tech investment themes.[17:41] Tesla and the Impact of FSD / Robotaxi (Memo Page 1)Jason weighs Tesla’s push into utility-scale batteries (e.g., 200 MW in Memphis) and full self-driving (FSD), questioning battery fire risks but seeing FSD as a high-margin game-changer, possibly via subscriptions. Mike highlights Tesla’s scale economies, offering Model 3 leases at $250/month while banking on software margins. The hosts debate if Tesla could hit $10 billion in free cash flow by 2028, with FSD as a key driver.[23:55] What % of Cars Sold in US Will Have Autonomous Driving Ability? (Memo Page 1)Hunt poses a provocative question: by 2027-28, what share of the 15 million U.S. cars sold annually will feature autonomous driving? Mike predicts it’ll hinge on Tesla’s output, suggesting it could become “table stakes” as insurance costs favor self-driving cars, while Jason cautions that legacy automakers like GM may lag into the 2030s due to slow production cycles. The segment explores a potential winner-take-all market.[26:39] Healthcare Updates: RFK Jr Impact! Jason and Mike laud the “Make America Healthy Again” executive order, which probes why Americans are sicker—citing 18% of 18-year-olds with fatty liver disease—linking it to food supply issues like microplastics and ultra-processed foods. They highlight its focus on SSRIs’ rise in youth and long-term side effects, alongside emerging alternatives like ketamine-based treatments from Janssen and Axsome. The discussion frames this as a root-cause approach to healthcare costs, with data-sharing reforms on the horizon.Tune in next week for more on Tesla, NVIDIA, and healthcare innovations—download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us to stay ahead of the curve!This podcast and the information