Telltales

SHOWNOTESA brisk, data-driven run through Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, Natural Gas, Oil), followed by a condensed “History of OpenAI,” semis capacity pinch points, a Tesla check-in, and timely healthcare policy updates.[00:00] Intro [00:47] Exhibit C: Oil—Geopolitics & The Abraham Accords PathDiscussion of a proposed Gaza plan reportedly backed by regional governments and the potential for broader normalization—implications for oil risk premia and global supply/demand. The team underscores how political stabilization could pressure crude pricing while reshaping Middle East dynamics.[02:25] Exhibit B: Natural Gas—Differentials & Permian Activity Waha basis blowouts (−$6 to −$7) tied to maintenance heading to the Gulf Coast; relief expected as maintenance ends. Team notes curtailments in the Permian and how depressed Waha prices could temper gas supply growth despite a longer-term ~108 bcf/d 2026 view.[03:51] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Finances—Regular Order vs. CRs All 12 House appropriations bills passed; several in conference with the Senate. If completed, “regular order” could be a real fiscal process improvement; timing risk remains around near-term pay cycles and political tactics.[06:54] The History of OpenAI From 2015 nonprofit roots to capped-profit restructuring in 2019, Microsoft’s early backing, and the GPT-1→2→3 progression culminating in ChatGPT’s breakout adoption. The hosts highlight governance tension, talent churn, and the compute arms race driving massive capex, alongside OpenAI’s push into consumer and enterprise features.[19:02] Next Week’s History: Oracle—From Cash Machine to Capex Engine (p. 2)Teaser for Oracle’s pivot into massive AI infrastructure spend, its OpenAI linkage, and whether financing can keep pace with ambition.[20:16] Semis Stack & The Compute Bottleneck (NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML) (p. 3)Page 3 spotlight: NVDA leadership vs. AMD incentives, Intel’s moves, and why TSMC’s process capacity is the current “choke point.” The crew argues TSMC’s pricing power is underexercised relative to its moat and strategic position.[23:07] Tesla: Model Y Trim, FSD v14, and Product Roadmap Expectations (pp. 10–11 if applicable)Market hoped for a ~$30k EV; instead a lower-cost Model Y variant and ongoing robo-taxi focus. FSD v14 early feedback looks improved; rumors swirl (Roadster, new propulsion/downforce concepts), but capital markets still weigh valuation vs. cash generation.[26:16] Healthcare News: TrumpRx Mechanics & Medicare Math (Exhibit A; Healthcare pages)Refined estimate places Medicare Part D government spend near ~$140B (older figure), with potential savings in the ~$70B range depending on design. Key operational unknowns (coverage vs. out-of-pocket) and how thresholds interact with the $2,000 OOP max.[27:21] Tariffs on Patented Pharma & CDMO Workarounds (Healthcare pages)100% tariff headline risk appears mitigable—onshoring or contracting U.S. CDMOs can offset. Given high gross margins post-R&D, the sector sighs relief versus harsher scenarios.[28:01] The Case for the Almighty Dollar (Exhibit A)If spending levels stabilize and healthcare growth moderates, the U.S. deficit could trend from ~$1.9T toward ~$1.4–1.5T. Hosts contrast U.S. trajectories with other majors; note gold strength vs. a firming dollar as markets reassess fiscal momentum.[30:32] Outro Thanks for listening! If the episode helped your investing framework, share it with a friend and grab the latest Cash Flow Memo for all 80+ company updates and Exhibits A–C.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESA brisk tour through oil, gas, and U.S. fiscal mechanics, followed by a biotech history chapter and a deep dive on NVIDIA’s sustained dominance. We close with a big healthcare development—“Trump-RX”—and quick hits from Harrow Health’s investor day.[00:00] Intro [00:28] Exhibit C – Oil: $62 is Doing Its Job Hunt frames today’s oil tape: production is rolling off in the U.S., OPEC, and non-OPEC; geopolitical thawing could keep prices soft near term. With Saudi capacity around 12 mb/d and surplus capacity trending toward ~2.5 mb/d by 2026, a “normally supplied” market implies oil trades in the $70s—though swoons into the $50s can happen on the way there.[02:05] Exhibit B – Natural Gas, Power Burn & LNG Gas underperformed, but storage is robust. Power burn was flat ’25 vs ’24 despite “AI, AI” chatter—a surprise tied to coal plant life-extension and a near-term lull in new wind/solar coming online. LNG demand stepped up this year; if power burn resumes climbing, a durable ~$4 gas band becomes more plausible.[03:22] Exhibit A – U.S. Cash Flow & the Shutdown The team walks through the continuing resolution dynamics: House bills vs 60-vote Senate reality, daily vote tactics, and the case for finishing all 12 appropriations. Beyond the political scoreboard, the focus is on process: budgeting via CRs isn’t how the system should work—and markets will parse timing of data releases like jobs.[05:44] Biopharma History (Part 4): From Genzyme to Monoclonals Jason spotlights Genzyme’s rare-disease model (boosted by the Orphan Drug Act), the Human Genome Project’s 13-year blueprint, and the 1996 Dolly milestone foreshadowing cell reprogramming. Genentech’s late-90s antibodies (Rituxan, Herceptin) ushered in targeted oncology—monoclonals remain the highest-grossing class today.[12:09] Next Week: OpenAI—A Controversial History Programming note: the crew will tackle OpenAI’s origin story and flashpoints next week, with Oracle and NVIDIA history episodes likely to follow.[14:19] NVIDIA’s Moat: Cash, CUDA, Cadence (p. 3)Hunt updates the NVIDIA page: zero net debt, >$50B cash, ~$85B run-rate FCF on ~$170B revenue, and modest capex vs hyperscalers. Mike explains why CUDA’s ecosystem and annual product cadence (powered by ~$15B R&D) create a TCO advantage so strong that even “free” AMD GPUs lose in practice; the window for rivals narrows as workloads stay variable.[21:20] Post-Break: ASICs vs. AMD & What’s After LLMs Jason notes the market’s pivot: when buyers do switch from NVIDIA, they’re more often going custom (ASIC/TPU) than to AMD. He adds that frontier researchers expect architectures beyond today’s LLMs to power the next step in reasoning—another reason flexibility favors NVIDIA’s stack for now.[22:43] Healthcare Shake-Up: “Trump-RX” and PBMs A new Medicare direct-to-consumer platform (Pfizer as first partner) could remove PBMs from many transactions, standardize pricing, and simplify Part D decisions. The panel discusses “gross-to-net” dynamics (often ~50% industrywide) and why UnitedHealth’s PBM economics could face pressure; potential annual savings to Medicare could be very large.[27:25] Harrow Health Investor Day: Buying Back Melt Harrow fully acquires the rest of Melt (anesthetic asset) for $8M upfront plus royalties. The team praises the capital allocation arc—spin out in the lean years, re-acquire after Phase 3 success once cash flows stabilize—highlighting optionality beyond ophthalmology (e.g., dentistry).[28:41] Wrap-Up & Next Week Sign-off with a reminder to check the memo. Next episode: OpenAI’s history—then likely Oracle and NVIDIA deep dives.Thanks for listening! If this episode helped clarify markets, share it with a friend and subscribe. Grab the Cash Flow Memo for all exhibits and the ~80-company financials.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

The Cashflow MemoDownloadSHOWNOTESA fast-moving tour across energy, technology, and healthcare: oil spare capacity looks set to tighten, natural gas loses its backwardation, DC politics and immigration policy enter the chat, we revisit Genentech’s beginnings, and then unpack Apple, Oracle/Broadcom, and NVIDIA through a cash-flow lens.Stick around for a sailing community shout-out from Oakcliff and a healthcare segment weighing Tylenol headlines against mixed evidence.[00:00] Intro[00:19] Disclaimer[00:26] Exhibit C — Oil: spare capacity on track to shrinkHunt walks through surplus crude capacity by country (Saudi, UAE, etc.) and argues that by next year the cushion could slip back to ~2.5 mb/d. With demand growth modest, geopolitics (Ukraine, Iran) and the “$62 oil did its magic” supply response suggest the window for sub-$50 oil may have passed.[03:13] Exhibit B — Natural Gas: futures tone weakensBackwardation is gone; later-dated gas sits around ~$3.95 (’26), with a ’25 average ~ $2.65 and prompt near ~$3.10. Supply ticked down when prices averaged ~$2.40–$2.75, but rebounds in ’25 (Permian leads; Waha even flipping negative). Despite AI power buzz, gas-fired demand has flattened as coal plants linger and wind/solar come online.[05:35] Exhibit A — DC budget brinkmanship & policy crosscurrentsHouse passes a short extension; Senate dynamics keep shutdown risk alive around October 1 and again into Thanksgiving without a broader deal. Conversation turns to a White House move to hike H-1B employer application fees from ~$2,500 toward ~$100,000—raising questions about talent, wages, and whether price hikes would throttle volumes or better filter for “best and brightest.”[11:12] Biopharma History (Part 3): Genentech, insulin & the tools that unlocked biotechJason traces Boyer/Cohen’s 1973 gene-splicing breakthrough and Genentech’s path from somatostatin to human insulin (Humulin) and a blockbuster 1980 IPO alongside peers like Biogen and Amgen. Mike spotlights PCR’s origin story—Kary Mullis’s unconventional inspiration—and how DNA amplification reshaped diagnostics, forensics, and research.[17:33] Oakcliff SailingFrom Newport’s Sailing Museum to fundraising for sails and a long-term home in Oyster Bay, Dawn Riley shares updates and an invitation to visit, support, and get involved.[19:52] Healthcare Update — Tylenol headlines vs. mixed evidenceTrump/HHS draw a headline-grabbing link between prenatal Tylenol use and autism. The crew weighs the literature (often ADHD-focused, mixed conclusions), real-world usage since the 1950s, and pregnancy tradeoffs when Tylenol is the only approved painkiller—underscoring how nuance gets lost in big-policy moments.[22:09] Page 1 — The case for $AAPLHunt contrasts hyperscaler CapEx (Amazon ~$90B; Alphabet/Microsoft $65B each) with Apple ($12B) and asks whether Apple can win via on-device/app-centric AI without giant model spend. Jason, a hardware/software skeptic of late, notes a packed Apple Store and a rare OS update that actually feels faster—hinting at green shoots on experience even as security/AI integration remain hard problems.[25:17] Page 2 — Broadcom vs. Oracle: cash flow, CapEx, and OpenAI exposureOracle is running heavy CapEx with negative FCF tied to AI data centers and a massive OpenAI compute commitment; leadership shifts elevate cloud execs. Broadcom, by contrast, throws off FCF with comparatively little CapEx and benefits when hyperscalers deploy non-NVIDIA accelerators. The debate: is Oracle’s risk/reward compelling—or just risky?[27:57] Page 3 — NVIDIA’s lead & the demand questionNVIDIA’s equity value (~$4.4T) and striking FCF margins prompt the sustainability question. Mike thinks supply execution looks solid—each new chip lowers cost-per-token and sustains ROI—but demand relies on platform wars, funding cycles, and whether value accrues beyond NVIDIA. If financing tightens, who blinks first—and do balance-sheet giants like Google gain relative advantage?How did you like this week’s Telltales? Your feedback helps me make this great.Loved | Great | Good | Meh | Bad | ….. If you liked this post from Telltales, why not share it?ShareThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no li

SHOWNOTESThis episode tackles the week’s cash-flow movers across energy, tech, and healthcare—then time-travels through biopharma’s biggest breakthroughs. We close with practical EV takes, Big Tech updates, and why Mars might be more interesting than the headlines suggest.[00:00] Intro [00:30] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand IEA’s latest revision lifts 2025 demand growth to ~0.7–0.8 mb/d (vs. ~0.4–0.5), implying the surplus could tighten from ~3.3 mb/d toward ~2.0—mostly in Saudi spare capacity (10.1 mb/d run-rate vs. ~12 mb/d capability). Futures sit near ~$62 as macro/geopolitical risk (Russia distillates, Iran supply) caps downside but keeps the curve flat in the low-60s.[03:34] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand/Supply Production hovered near ~106 while power burn stayed frustratingly flat (~37.8→38.5). Spot printed $3.04 last Thursday, with a contangoed strip around ~$3.83–$3.90 for 2026—disappointing versus the old ~$4 anchor given modest data-center uplift to date.[04:38] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Finances & Rates Congress passed a CR to Nov 20; Democrats seek Medicaid restorations, making a shutdown plausible. The Fed delivered a quarter-point cut—arriving “too late” in Hunt’s view—after holding steady post last fall’s 50 bps move; politics around timing get a candid airing.[06:50] Biopharma History: From Penicillin to mRNA Alexander Fleming’s accidental penicillin find (1928/29) led to wartime scale-up (Pfizer’s deep-tank fermentation; doses >2M by 1943) and a “Golden Age of Antibiotics” (streptomycin for TB, tetracycline). Genentech’s 1980s recombinant insulin marks the modern biotech inflection; BioNTech’s mRNA pivot shows how far we’ve come—even as viruses and antibiotic resistance remain unsolved frontiers.[17:16] Oakcliff Sailing Community update and Annapolis Boat Show plans; proceeds benefit programs via racingcalendar.org.[19:29] Page 1: Mega-Cap Check-In Quick scan of the “Page 1” five. Tesla highlights include Musk buying ~$1B of shares and Nevada approval to test robotaxis; Amazon FC tour preview tees up automation talk; Microsoft’s OpenAI arrangements continue to solidify.[19:44] Apple: Translation AirPods & the AR Path (p. 1)AirPods Pro 3 impress—live in-ear translation hints at Apple’s real-world AR strategy while iPhone “Air” appeals to China’s thin-phone fad and preps a foldable future. New “liquid glass” UI lands better in hand than on stage; the market’s “not enough AI” reaction misses the iteration-to-platform arc.[21:51] Microsoft & OpenAI: Deal Momentum (p. 1)No big surprises—just steady progress that reinforces Azure’s AI gravity and inference economics, with edge vs. cloud tradeoffs a watch-item.[22:28] Oracle: Building AI ‘Factories’ (p. 2)Larry Ellison leans into capacity for inference—Oracle wants to be a go-to “AI factory” supplier. Jason flags an overbuild risk if inference migrates to edge devices, but legacy database strengths gain new relevance in the AI era.[25:10] Page 3: NVIDIA & China Strategy China signals intent to reduce NVIDIA reliance while simultaneously pressing a prior remedy about uninterrupted supply—talk vs. action tension. Bottom line: NVDA’s constraint is still TSMC wafer output; global demand ex-China remains plenty.[27:26] Life on Mars? NASA reports organic carbon and iron compounds consistent with microbial biosignatures; alternative non-biologic origins remain unconvincing. Sample-return logistics could unlock definitive answers—surprising this didn’t dominate the news cycle.[29:09] Tesla Model Y Door Safety (p. 1)Emergency latches exist but aren’t intuitive, especially rear seats; several accidents spotlight the issue. Expect regulatory pressure for a clearly mechanical primary interior release.[30:16] Used EVs: Who Should Buy What? (p. 1)Charging at home is the gating factor; in California it’s often a no-brainer. For used, Tesla’s deeper field data and software stack make it the safer pick; typical battery life guidance ~150k miles, with many vehicles exceeding that—non-Tesla software still lags.Thanks for listening! If this helped you think in cash-flow, share the episode and grab the full memo for charts, exhibits, and ~80 company updates. Subscribe so you never miss the next deep dive.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. T

SHOWNOTESA brisk, cash-flow-first tour through energy, technology, and healthcare: oil and gas realities, the federal balance sheet, big labor revisions, and the AI build-out—plus biotech’s backstory and fresh FDA/advertising policy moves.[00:00] Intro (n/a)[00:19] DisclaimerReminder that the episode is informational only and not investment advice. Listeners should do their own work and assume no guarantee of completeness or accuracy.[00:30] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Oil pricing “stuck” near the low-60s amid geopolitical tensions and weak macro catalysts. Spare capacity is drifting lower mainly from decline curves and reduced capex; U.S. activity (rigs/completions) is down, with 2025 U.S. output guided lower and 2026 ~12.7–12.8 mb/d. New projects look unlikely at current prices, keeping a floor under crude absent major macro breaks.[04:22] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand/Supply Despite questions about recovery to $70s oil, weaker demand growth—especially in China and Asia—tempers the upside. The team doesn’t see a $50 handle as likely given supply dynamics and geopolitical backdrop, but also isn’t banking on a quick return to higher prices.[05:06] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Cash Flow Targeting progress rather than perfection: discussion of trimming the deficit toward ~$1–1.5T over the next couple years versus COVID-era blowouts. Debt-to-GDP math: if deficits stabilize, the ratio can flatten near ~102% before drifting down. Expect noise as Congress wrestles with funding via continuing resolutions to avoid shutdown-style disruptions.[07:55] Jobs Revision: The Labor Data Reality CheckRoughly ~1M jobs revised away (~76k/month on average), implying two negative months and several weak ones last year. Vanguard’s vantage via 401(k) enrollments/contribution trends hinted at a softer market earlier; poor inputs complicate Fed timing and reinforce criticism that policy cuts ran “too late.”[10:14] Biopharma History (10-Minute Sprint) From ancient fermentation and early antibiotic uses to Pasteur’s germ theory, vaccination experiments, and Mendel’s genetics—laying the groundwork for modern biopharma. Clarifies “biotech” vs “pharma” and notes this series will span multiple episodes.[17:25] Page 1: Tesla’s $1T Pay Package (p. 1)Long-dated, “outlandish-but-plannable” milestones: $8T valuation, robotaxis, humanoid robots. Hosts lean over 50/50 on operational targets over a 10-year window; valuation ultimately rests with markets. Governance sidenote: Delaware ruling, Texas reincorporation, and how a prior plan could affect today’s package.[21:27] Page 2: Software—CRM / NOW / SNOW / ORCL / AVGO (p. 2)Oracle pops ~30% on AI-related backlog/commentary (notably OpenAI). Debate: Can capital markets really fund another ~$100B for OpenAI? One view: software innovation may pivot, forcing a spending rethink; another: token demand far exceeds supply (HBM bottlenecks, NVIDIA shipping everything, hyperscalers/“neo-clouds” deals), so pricing power and demand migration across providers (MSFT/Gemini/etc.) sustain the buildout.[26:03] Sponsor Break: Oakcliff SailingQuick update from the water: race results, training, and a fall foiling series—follow along on social feeds.[27:44] Healthcare News Roundup Executive order seeks to curb pharma ads by reverting to pre-1997-style disclosure—potential hit to legacy media and to DTC channels that bypass PBMs. Policy fragmentation on vaccines at state levels draws criticism. FDA moves to accept single-arm studies for ultra-rare diseases ([31:00] Sign-Off Thanks for listening! If this helped your investing process, subscribe, share with a friend, and grab the latest Cash Flow Memo to follow the numbers each week.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week we open with the Google antitrust decision, then dive into Exhibits C (Oil), B (Natural Gas), and A (U.S. finances) before a tech deep-dive on AI capacity, TPUs vs GPUs, and close with healthcare policy shifts.[00:00] Intro[00:38] DisclaimerGeneral investing discussion only; do your own work. Views are the hosts’ alone.[00:51] Exhibit C – Oil (Exhibit C)Geopolitics keeps crude “stuck” around $62–64 with a flat curve (no backwardation). Spare capacity from Saudi/UAE plus tepid demand (+~0.4 mb/d 2H) cap prices; at these levels, U.S. completions slow and ~3 mb/d global surplus could burn off over ~18 months. U.S. output near ~13 mb/d (from ~11.9 in ’22) likely flattens.[03:07] Exhibit B – Natural Gas Near-month gas dips under $3 after holding $4–4.25 for ’25–’26; shoulder-month seasonality adds pressure. Dry gas production trending ~108 (from ~106) looks entrenched; power demand is surprisingly flat (coal retirements slower), while LNG rises—netting out to softer pricing.[04:37] Exhibit A – U.S. Government Cash Flow Budget brinkmanship keeps Exhibit A in the headlines into Oct. Targeting a deficit move from just under $2T to ~$1.5T would be progress, with $1T the real goal. Ten-year rate resilience matters; if deficits bend down and debt/GDP stabilizes, the U.S. could outperform Europe/Japan/China.[05:28] Macro: Rates, Dollar & GoldBeyond the policy rate, markets set the rest—carry dynamics have limits without adding risk. Central banks now hold more gold (by value) than USD reserves, framing the dollar as the “least bad currency.” AI-driven productivity could help “grow our way” out of deficits.[09:08] Google Antitrust: Defaults Without ExclusivityThe ruling labels Google an illegal monopoly in search but stops short of break-ups; exclusive search deals must end, yet paid defaults continue (Apple’s ~$20B+/yr remains in play). Google may need to license index/interaction data at marginal cost, potentially aiding competitors (e.g., OpenAI). Non-exclusive deals could cut Google’s payments—or invite a Meta bid to become the iPhone’s AI-first gateway (with Apple’s 30% app economics inside the App Store). Parallel talks: Siri ↔ Gemini; Meta exploring Google capacity underscores a broader compute crunch.[16:22] TPU vs GPU: Who Wins Inference?China’s domestic stack (e.g., homegrown accelerators) plus energy policy could brute-force parity despite lower-spec chips. Google’s vertically integrated TPUs may lower inference cost; NVIDIA counters with rapid cadence and an inference-tilted roadmap (GB300, “Rubin” series). Ultimately, all-in “cost per token” decides share.[20:13] Healthcare News: Labels, SNAP & CDCTexas moves to flag ingredients banned abroad on food labels, restricts SNAP “junk food,” and expands nutrition education—watch for copycat states or FDA action. CDC leadership churn sparks debate; quick course-correction can be healthy if fit is wrong. Broader reviews (and even autism-cause inquiries) spotlight a needed return to open scientific debate.[24:36] Next Week: Biotech History TeaseFrom penicillin back to early natural-product hunts—when scientists literally brought home dirt to find new drugs. A fun look at the explorer mindset that seeded modern biotech.[26:28] Outro & DisclaimerStandard disclosures; information believed reliable but not guaranteed. Hosts may hold positions mentioned.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESA fast-moving episode: Hunt opens with Exhibits C/B/A (oil, gas, U.S. finances), then we sprint through a crisp history of AI from Turing to Transformers before closing on healthcare—Berkshire’s UNH stake and how MFN drug pricing pressures PBMs.[00:00] Intro (—)Welcome to Telltales with Mike, Jason, and Hunt. Grab the weekly Cash Flow Memo and follow along as we hit energy, technology, and healthcare through a cash-flow lens.[00:57] Disclaimer (—)Informational only; do your own work. No investment advice.[01:22] Exhibit C: World Oil—Supply, Sanctions & the Risk Premium (Exhibit C)Iranian output is running stronger than assumed while sanctions dynamics on Russia/India/China and “shadow fleet” enforcement remain key swing factors. Hunt frames oil pricing as fundamentals plus a $5–$20/bbl risk premium, shaped by geopolitical uncertainty and sanction compliance pathways (e.g., ship classing, SWIFT visibility). Saudi policy and the restoration of curtailed OPEC barrels are tracked against this risk overlay.[07:10] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas & Producer Cash Flows (Exhibit B; p. 11)Strip prices are modest vs last year, and Hunt notes how lower commodity realizations cascade into lower producer cash flow. Capital spending tends to track cash generation; he flags names on p. 11 where production rose despite tighter cash (EOG, Magnolia).[07:56] Exhibit C (cont.): U.S. Shale & OPEC Strategy (Exhibit C)U.S. crude peaked near 13.3 mbpd in ’24 and could drift lower if prices hang in the low-$60s. With OPEC+ restoring prior curtailments and Saudi’s voluntary cuts unwinding, non-U.S. and U.S. declines may eventually absorb surplus capacity—unless geopolitical risk fades abruptly.[10:12] Exhibit A: U.S. Finances—Deficit Path, “All Other,” and Tariffs (Exhibit A)Baseline shows the deficit improving from ~$1.9T to $1.5T, still elevated vs pre-COVID. “All other” outlays ballooned post-COVID; trimming continues to be the lever. Medicaid ($600B federal share) has been flat; tariffs add revenue at the margin, though sky-high projections are debated.[13:21] Rates, the Fed, and the Long End (Exhibit A)Debate: Should the Fed cut soon? Hunt expects policy rates drifting toward ~3–3.25% next year while the 10-year could stay ~4.5–4.75% given heavy Treasury supply and QT runoff. Jason worries about services inflation and sees labor data stronger beneath the surface; rate-cut timing remains contentious.[18:43] Software History (Part 7): From Turing to Transformers (—)Jason and Mike trace AI’s arc: 1950s Turing test; rule-based “expert systems”; 1990s machine learning and Deep Blue’s hybrid approach; then 2012’s ImageNet breakthrough as GPUs turbo-charged neural nets; finally 2017’s Transformer architecture underpinning today’s LLMs. Big idea: the future blends deterministic (classical) and probabilistic (AI) programming—knowing when to use each unlocks real productivity.[31:53] Healthcare Quick Hit: Berkshire Buys $UNH (p. 19)UnitedHealth pops onto the memo as large investors disclose stakes. The crew riffs on whether a Berkshire position could nudge governance and strategy—even as skepticism about UNH’s model lingers.[32:48] MFN Pricing & the PBM Squeeze (p. 19)“Most favored nation” pressure pushes pharma to sell more directly, compressing the gross-to-net gap historically captured by PBM rebates. If PBMs lose take-rate and transparency rises, margin structures across the channel could reset.[33:50] MAHA, FDA, and Bending the Cost Curve (p. 19)Positive read-throughs on FDA process changes; big win is healthier inputs (nutrition) that reduce downstream “sick-care” spend. The team sees a potential inflection toward better outcomes per dollar.[35:14] Next Week & Wrap (—)Biotech history is teed up for an upcoming 10-minute segment. Keep an eye out for stitched “software history” and “chip history” compilation episodes in the feed.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESA wide-ranging tour this week: oil demand vs. spare capacity, U.S. gas and fiscal tracks, and the cloud era’s security shocks that boosted both AWS and CPU demand. We close on healthcare policy, Intel’s maneuvering, Nvidia’s China fee, and what Snowflake/Salesforce/ServiceNow signal for AI ROI.[00:00] IntroMike sets the table for another 30-minute sprint through energy, tech, and healthcare, and points listeners to the Cash Flow Memo for exhibits and company pages.[00:00] DisclaimerStandard reminder: informational only; do your own work.[00:00] World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt notes oil “hanging in at 60” as OPEC+ countries aren’t meeting raised quotas—implying true spare capacity may be overstated. Demand growth has cooled: 2025 is up only ~0.5 mb/d vs. +1.4 mb/d in 2023, with China the swing factor (15.2 → 16.1 → 16.2 mb/d). This tempers bullishness even as quota compliance lags.[02:08] U.S. Gas Demand/Supply (Exhibit B)U.S. gas output averaged ~106 bcfd in 2025 and is running ~107; 2026’s 108 looks plausible. Gas-for-power use is flat YoY after years of +~1.5 bcfd growth, with fewer coal retirements and more solar capacity changing the stack. Policy/tax-credit shifts could slow new wind/solar adds, keeping an eye on balances.[03:11] U.S. Fiscal Picture (Exhibit A)Projected deficit improvement from ~$1.9T to ~$1.5T in FY26 reflects lower rates, modest spending trims, and targeted savings. Near-term risk is a pre-Oct 1 continuing resolution. Mike flags BLS job revisions softening the labor picture, and Hunt notes markets will parse the Fed Chair’s Jackson Hole speech for a potential 25 bp path.[05:43] Software History Part 6: Cloud ComputingJason traces AWS’s 2006 origin story (holiday-driven overbuild → rentable compute → managed services), plus REST and the API economy making zero-CapEx startups viable. OAuth tokens improved security UX but created token-theft risk; Spectre/Meltdown forced software mitigations that slowed CPUs ~10–20%—pushing some customers to buy more compute and organically lifting AWS spend.[13:32] AWS Segment Breakout & Lessons (p. 1)Hunt recalls the period when AWS was “other” before driving a re-rating as its profits eclipsed the legacy retail engine. The takeaway: durable, high-margin infra with years of head start can reset how the market values a conglomerate’s sum of parts.[15:04] AWS Moat & Switching Costs (p. 1)Mike and Jason discuss AWS’s growth and high switching costs; once landed, enterprise workloads tend to stay. Anecdotes include a CIA contract where AWS beat IBM on perceived security despite higher price, underscoring trust and managed security as part of the moat.[18:00] Healthcare News & Policy (p. 15, 19, 20)Items include the “Patients Deserve Price Tags Act” (hospital price transparency) and FDA disclosure trends (more CRL data) that could train LLMs and compress regulatory timelines. Noted too: an Eli Lilly exec voicing support for MFN dynamics to realize better EU pricing rather than U.S. cuts.[19:47] Memo p.3: Intel—Governance, Strategy, and Scale (p. 3)Hunt and Mike recap leadership scrutiny around China ties and a White House visit aiming to stabilize plans. Intel’s 10-Q flags that proceeding on the next leading-edge node likely requires a cost-sharing anchor customer—else more TSMC outsourcing. Scale economics dominate; policy levers (ownership stakes, tariffs) may be used to bridge the gap.[23:03] Nvidia’s China Fee & Industrial Policy (p. 3)Mike notes a 15% fee on Nvidia chips sold into China; Hunt/Jason debate authority, goals, and realpolitik (e.g., rare earths). The crux: keeping China dependent on Western silicon while managing leakage of high-end parts (H100/Blackwell) vs. allowing “dumbed-down” SKUs.[26:14] Tech Updates: Tesla, Blackwell TCO, and AI in SaaS (p. 3-4)Tesla launches a six-seat Model Y variant. Early reads suggest GB200 data-center TCO ~1.6× H100, so performance must scale accordingly to justify ROI. Salesforce appears slow to commercialize AI externally even as Benioff touts 1/3 of internal work done by AI; ServiceNow cites ~5% opex reduction with AI features gaining traction.[29:12] What Does Snowflake Do (for AI)? (p. 4)Mike/Jason explain Snowflake’s role unifying messy enterprise data (e.g., Salesforce) for BI and now AI—becoming the “source of truth” and a natural enclave to run/training workflows across clouds. Dirty upstream data can bottleneck AI adoption, which helps explain Salesforce’s challenges and Snowflake’s positioning.[31:22] Wrap & Next WeekThe team plans to extend software history and compare Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake’s AI monetization paths. Stay tuned for deeper dives on AI ROI across the enterprise stack.Closing: If you found this helpful, grab the full Cash Flow Memo (with Exhibits A–C and company pages) and share the episode with a friend. Questions for the hosts? Drop them in the comments for next week’s mailbag.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational pur

SHOWNOTESA fast tour across energy, technology history, and healthcare—then a spirited debate on Tesla’s path: robotaxis or humanoid robots. Plus: where oil and gas balances sit now, what built Web 2.0, and why some healthcare names look interesting on cash flow.[00:00] Intro Welcome to Telltales with Mike, Jason, and Hunt, setting up a deep dive into energy, technology, and healthcare with the companion Cash Flow Memo. Quick reminder: this conversation is for informational purposes only.[00:00] Disclaimer Standard investment disclaimer on doing your own work and limitations of the information shared.[00:00] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt frames oil as a macro story: a cordial Trump–Putin meeting likely won’t yield a Ukraine ceasefire, keeping sanctions risk—and prices—elevated. Saudi output is marked up, Russia down; spare capacity sits near 3 mb/d. OPEC’s demand growth looks optimistic vs. the memo’s ~0.5 mb/d step-up, and the curve has flattened with less backwardation. Base case: WTI hovering in the low-to-mid $60s for now.[02:49] Exhibit B: U.S. Natural Gas Supply/Demand (Exhibit B)Gas is “in a swoon”: 2026 pricing hangs near ~$4 while the prompt month slides toward ~$3, as dry gas production ticks from ~106 to ~108 bcf/d. Associated gas from the Permian surprises to the upside; Gulf Coast hub pricing has even averaged under $1 at times, signaling localized oversupply. Expectations of lower Permian activity didn’t dent gas as much as hoped.[04:17] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Finances (Exhibit A)Deficit glidepath discussed: ~$1.9T this fiscal year toward ~$1.5T next year, aided by tariff/“excise & other” revenues and some spending flattening. Debt held by the public sits ~102% of GDP vs. ~81% pre-COVID (2019); bending that ratio down would be a major achievement. Musk’s provocative view on trimming the deficit by ~$1T is cited directionally.[06:28] Agenda & SegueThe crew carves out time for two threads: software history leading to modern AI, and a healthcare check-in before closing on Tesla.[06:45] Software History: Web 2.0 & the LAMP StackJason tracks the move from Web 1.0 to user-generated Web 2.0: blogs, wikis, YouTube, MySpace/Facebook. Google’s PageRank shift—links and probability (Markov chains) over keyword counts—reshaped discovery. The LAMP stack (Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP) plus permissive OSS licensing let startups ship dynamic apps cheaply and consistently. Proprietary stacks (e.g., .NET) faced friction from licensing and per-core pricing, nudging adoption toward open source.[16:22] Healthcare News & Stock Updates (pp. 15, 19)A surprise FDA leadership twist gets a mention. Harrow’s earnings show an inflection toward profitability: early data points suggest Vivi prescriptions outpacing Miebo among adopters, and another franchise growing >60% YoY with focus on retina practices. GLP-1 pills disappoint at Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Vertex research results were mixed, but the core CF franchise underpins valuation comfort. Lantheus draws lessons on management change, capital allocation, and now screens cheap (7–8× FCF) with potential strategic interest.[20:54] Sponsor: Oakcliff Sailing Update Dawn checks in from the road with regatta results, upcoming events, and where to find race coverage on Oakcliff’s Facebook page.[22:01] Robots vs. Robotaxis: The Tesla Debate (p. 1)Is Tesla’s trillion-plus valuation driven more by robotaxis or humanoid robots? Jason sees robotaxis arriving sooner; Mike argues humanoids may be closer than consensus. Training data is a bottleneck for general-purpose robots; roads have clearer rules than “the world.” If Tesla can deliver ~$0.25/mile robotaxi costs, mass adoption could crush car ownership economics. Musk’s claim that Tesla could surpass Apple’s value is weighed against timelines: it likely takes a decade—and a lot of autonomy deployed—to get there. Waymo may be the other credible FSD player, but Tesla’s commercialization path looks stronger after shifting from rules-based to deep learning.[33:13] Wrap & Tease They’ll return next week to finish software/AI history and dig into chip stocks. Closing reminders and standard disclaimer.Thanks for listening—grab the Cash Flow Memo for full exhibits, charts, and the 80-company update. If you enjoyed this episode, subscribe and share it with a friend who follows energy, tech, or healthcare.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warra

This week the Telltales crew unpacks shifting energy fundamentals, tough healthcare headlines, the rise of Web 1.0—and whether Tesla’s robo-taxi dream justifies a half-trillion price tag.[00:00] Intro Mike welcomes listeners, frames the show’s cash-flow focus across energy, tech, and healthcare, and reminds everyone to grab the accompanying memo.[00:47] Exhibit C – World Oil Supply & Demand Hunt revisits OPEC+ production moves, Saudi-U.S. coordination, and secondary sanctions aimed at Russia. He argues excess supply could keep WTI/Brent in the $50s before tightening 18–24 months out.[03:55] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook Gas futures slip as shoulder-season demand meets rising output (~108 Bcf/d). Despite near-term weakness, Hunt still sees 2024–25 averaging ~$4/MMBtu if production stabilizes.[05:05] Exhibit A – U.S. Fiscal Picture With Congress on recess and spending bills stalled, Hunt warns that continuing-resolution drama could spook capital markets. Political gridlock plus Epstein-file intrigue add to the uncertainty.[07:59] Technology & Healthcare Agenda The hosts outline three focus areas—healthcare, software history, Tesla—and promise a deeper Tesla dive later in the episode.[08:19] Healthcare Earnings & Policy (pp. 15)Jason highlights FDA leadership changes, a 250 % pharma tariff, and halted mRNA research grants. Vertex’s pain-drug miss and Lantheus’s pricing pressure contrast with fortress balance sheets and fresh buybacks, sparking a value-vs-value-trap debate.[15:56] Software History Part 4 – Network Effects & Web 1.0 From Microsoft Office lock-in to AOL’s ubiquitous CDs, Jason tracks the 1990s standards (HTTP, SSL, JavaScript) that enabled Internet scale—and set the stage for Amazon, eBay, PayPal, Yahoo, and Google.[20:40] Oakcliff Sailing Update A quick on-the-water report from Oakcliff International match-racing, with shout-outs to volunteers and rising teams.[22:18] Tesla Sum-of-Parts & Robo-Taxi Debate (p. 1)Hunt admires Tesla’s debt-light, cash-rich balance sheet but questions its $1 T valuation on just $5 B free cash flow. The trio models a $500-600 B option on robo-taxis and humanoid robots, comparing cost-per-mile economics to Uber and DoorDash, and muse on venture-style fleet financing.[32:30] Wrap-Up & Next Week Teaser Running long on enthusiasm, the hosts promise more on Tesla, Uber, and healthcare in the next episode—and sign off with the usual disclaimer.Catch the full memo at telltales.us and join us next week for deeper dives into markets that move your portfolio.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode we swing from macro storm clouds to silicon sunshine—probing debt risks, tracing software’s evolution, and spotlighting a Samsung-Tesla chip alliance that could turbocharge robotaxis.[00:00] Intro :00:47] Macro Risk: Could 2008 Happen Again? (Exhibit A)Hunt draws parallels between today’s oil-market risk premium and the 4Q 2008 liquidity freeze. He warns that a repo-market hiccup—not a bond auction failure—could be the trigger, given money-market–fund flight. Jason advocates 7 % across-the-board federal cuts, while Mike finds optimism in June’s surplus and $27 B tariff haul.[00:10:19] Software History – Part 3 Jason and Mike trek from IBM mainframes to the Apple Lisa and Windows 3.0. Highlights: Thomas Watson Jr.’s $5 B System/360 gamble, GM’s early OS, the birth of “software engineering” (1968), Xerox PARC’s WIMP GUI, and Bill Gates’ pivot from DOS to a ground-up graphical Windows.[00:19:21] Top Mark Rankings Spotlight Tyler introduces the Top Mark Olympic-class sailing ranking—bringing the race to LA 2028 and positioning Top Mark Capital as the sport’s data hub.[00:20:08] Healthcare Round-Up (pp. 15, 19, 20)Jason covers Roche’s direct-to-consumer MS drug move, the FDA exit of controversial pick Pradeep Vemuri, and Novo Nordisk’s growth-guidance cut amid GLP-1 competition. Discussion centers on PBM mark-ups, gene-therapy approvals, and Lilly’s competitive edge.[00:23:37] Tesla × Samsung: A Fab Deal (Page 1)Hunt lauds Musk’s “highest and best use” as Samsung commits billions to an Austin foundry for Tesla’s in-house AI chips. Mike recounts Tesla’s silicon lineage—from Nvidia to Jim Keller’s HW 5—and explains why owning capacity beats vying with Nvidia at TSMC. Jason calls it Intel’s missed opportunity.[00:28:04] Next Week Teaser & Sign-Off The crew previews Episode 2532: a deeper dive into Tesla’s 2 M-unit robotaxi strategy and the consumer shock of humanoid-delivered DoorDash orders. Listeners are urged to grab the memo and tune in next Wednesday.Thanks for listening! Download the memo at telltales.us, leave a review, and join us next week for more market storytelling.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week we weave through energy geopolitics, U.S. fiscal chess, breakthrough healthcare economics, and the exploding compute demands of frontier AI—plus part 2 of our Software History mini-series.[00:00] Intro [01:04] Oil Market War Premium & Russia Risk (Exhibit C)Hunt explains how secondary sanctions on Russian crude—now part of U.S.–China talks—add a $10-15/bbl war premium. Market oversupply persists, but geopolitical uncertainty keeps Brent in the mid-$60s.[02:22] Natural Gas Backwardation & OPEC Capacity (Exhibit B)Despite OPEC+ barrels returning, LNG prices remain backwardated. Oversupply could fade if new offshore and Permian projects stall, yet investors should stay patient before adding exposure.[04:05] U.S. Budget Scenarios & Rescission Strategy (Exhibit A)Hunt outlines a GOP plan to pass 12 spending bills, then trim via rescission to dodge Senate filibusters. Estimated FY 26 deficit could fall from $1.9 T to $1.5 T—Jason calls that “progress, but still daunting.”[07:04] Healthcare Round-Up (pp. 15, 20)• Vertex wins CMS support in 33 states for Casgevy, its $2.2 M CRISPR cure—savings outweigh costs for Medicaid.• Harrow licenses two Samsung biosimilars (including an Eylea rival), leveraging its ophthalmology sales force.• Tenet’s 23 % spike in exchange-patient admissions signals at least 20 % premium hikes ahead; brokers’ incentives deserve scrutiny.[11:54] Software History Part 2 – From Enigma to COBOL Mike & Jason trace WWII codebreaking: Turing’s Bombe, the “stored-program” breakthrough, and FORTRAN’s 1957 debut. Grace Hopper’s COBOL makes business computing accessible, seeding modern software.Ken Thompson’s Bell Labs team invents Unix and the C language, enabling software to hop across hardware platforms—the foundation of today’s macOS, iOS, and most cloud servers.[21:41] Sponsor Break – Oakcliff Sailing A behind-the-scenes look at repairing match boat #4 and training the next generation of marine-industry pros.[23:47] Big-Tech Earnings & OpenAI–Microsoft Friction (p 1)Ahead of Alphabet and Tesla prints, the crew debates Microsoft/OpenAI tensions and how Elon Musk’s portfolio complicates the AI landscape.[24:26] xAI’s Colossus 2 Compute Surge (p 1)Musk plans 550 k GB200/GB300 GPUs for training only—no inference—while OpenAI inks a 4.5 GW power deal in Abilene. Meta’s 6 GW push brings the trio’s new capacity to 12 GW.[26:37] Frontier-Model Arms Race (p 1)Is XAI iterating faster because its GPUs are clustered? Hunt thinks so; Mike notes Meta, OpenAI, and Oracle scrambling to match the single-site scale.[28:46] Looking One Year Ahead in Large Language Models (p 1)Data may be scarce, but synthetic data, bigger contexts, and reasoning engines should keep model quality on an exponential curve. Jason now defaults to reasoning models despite 50 × compute cost—latency is good enough.[31:38] Closing & Next Week More Software History and fresh cash-flow insights in seven days—download the memo, share the show, and stay healthy!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESMike, Jason, and Hunt connect the dots between geopolitics, AI infrastructure, and healthcare policy—always through the lens of cash-flow-focused investing.[00:00] Intro (Cover)Welcome to Telltales and the weekly Cash Flow Memo. Quick rundown of what’s ahead: energy, tech, healthcare, and a short history-of-software segment.[00:00] Oil Supply & the War Premium (Exhibit C)Spare capacity sits near 3 Mb/d, but conflict risks keep Brent in the mid-$60s. Trump’s proposed secondary sanctions on Russian oil add fresh uncertainty; crude would likely price in the $50s without these pressures.[05:33] U.S. Natural Gas Snapshot (Exhibit B)Futures support ~$3.80 gas in ’25 and $4 in ’26. Bottlenecks in Marcellus and high costs in Haynesville curb supply growth while LNG demand rises—limiting downside for efficient producers.[07:44] Fiscal Policy & Musk Politics (Exhibit A)A small rescission bill could pave the way for deeper cuts and a Musk-Trump détente. Implications for spending, inflation, and Tesla sentiment.[09:10] Punch Cards to IBM: A Software Origin Story From the 1801 Jacquard loom to Babbage’s Analytical Engine and Ada Lovelace’s first algorithm, Jason and Mike trace how punch cards seeded modern computing, the 1890 census tabulator, and ultimately IBM—mirroring today’s AI disruption debates.[16:58] Healthcare Check-in (pp 15, 20)Lantheus ($LNTH): CMS keeps mean-unit-cost pricing, delaying but not destroying value—stock at ~14× cash flow.Harrow ($HROW): Sales up 67 % QoQ; pharma-tariff chatter could hit biologics more than small molecules.[20:17] Big-Bank Earnings (p 13)$JPM, $MS, $GS, and $IBKR post strong free-cash-flow yields (~10 %) and richer buyback capacity—attractive for long-term compounding.[22:10] Google’s Windsurf Acquihire (p 1)FTC scrutiny forces a split “talent-plus-IP” deal, highlighting hurdles for AI M&A and changing startup exit math.[23:59] Enterprise Software & AI (p 2)Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake race to embed AI while shifting from seat licenses to consumption pricing—raising both opportunity and competitive pressure.[25:37] Oracle’s GPU Edge (p 2)Oracle secures early-run NVIDIA chips, scaling AI data centers to meet OpenAI-type demand—strategic positioning few can match.[26:38] Semis in Focus: NVIDIA vs. TSMC (p 3)$NVDA’s margins stay stellar, but $TSM’s massive CapEx underpins the ecosystem. Valuation gap raises questions about supply-chain power dynamics.[32:20] Wrap-Up & Next WeekDownload the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and join us in seven days for more data-driven market insights.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This week Telltales flies from oil barrels to GPUs, showing how energy, technology, and healthcare each reshape an investor’s cash-flow lens.[00:00] Intro[01:00] Exhibit C – Global Oil Balance (Exhibit C)Hunt flags disappointing demand growth (+0.5 Mb/d) against a 3-4 Mb/d spare-capacity cushion. Prices hover near $65 only because Middle-East risk keeps a volatility premium alive.[01:51] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook (Exhibit B)Dry-gas supply is capped at 106 Bcfd while LNG exports jump 2.5 Bcfd YoY. Power-sector demand has stalled, but the forward curve still implies $3.50-4.00/MMBtu—well above the 2024 trough of $2.40.[03:06] Exhibit A – U.S. Federal Finances (Exhibit A)The deficit is projected to fall from $1.93 T to $1.5 T, helped by prospective tariff revenue under a second Trump term. Lower issuance would be a tail-wind for Treasuries and the dollar.[03:49] GPU Revolution: A 3-Minute History (p. 3)An AI-generated voiceover races from Quake-era 3D cards to CUDA, ImageNet 2012, transformers, and ChatGPT—all highlighting how parallel processing unlocked today’s AI gold rush.[07:49] Will AI Become Sentient? Hunt presses Jason on whether LLMs are mere tools or future autonomous agents. The trio contrast Apple’s “bicycle” philosophy with Meta/OpenAI’s quest for super-intelligence.[15:50] Page 1 – Big-Tech Valuations Debate (p. 1)Apple and Alphabet trade at ~31× free cash flow versus Microsoft’s 50×, reflecting market worries about hardware disruption and search cannibalisation. Is Cupertino too risk-averse to catch the next wave?[22:54] Page 3 – Semiconductor Super-cycle (p. 3)NVIDIA’s historic $67 B FCF (57× multiple) dwarfs AMD and INTEL, while politically sensitive TSMC still trades at 60×. The hosts grapple with “trees-to-the-sky” expectations and supply-chain risk.[24:52] Oakcliff Sailing Update A quick detour to Nova Scotia celebrates new distance-race records and Oakcliff’s global youth-sailing calendar.[26:39] Healthcare Check-up Jason highlights Centene’s guidance withdrawal, shifting pharma-tariff timelines, and encouraging early data for Vertex’s non-opioid ICX pain therapy—all hinting at underwriting and reimbursement tail-winds.[29:05] Page 20 – Harrow Health Spotlight (p. 20)Management’s owner-operator mindset keeps the team bullish ahead of the next earnings print; sales execution is the near-term catalyst.[29:59] Next Week & Outro Chips history is officially “done”—software history (and CUDA’s dominance) is up next. Subscribe, share, and send your questions for the upcoming series on code and cash flow!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week the crew dissects energy demand plateaus, a surprising federal deficit outlook, and why performance-per-watt now rules both hyperscale datacenters and your smartphone—before closing with AI’s domination of medical diagnosis and fresh biotech data.[00:00] Intro [00:00:45] Exhibit C – World Oil Demand & SupplyHunt notes 2025 demand is now expected to edge only 0.5 Mb/d above 2024. Mature regions (U.S., EU, Japan) stay flat, China dips, and “Other Asia” disappoints. Supply wildcards include higher Saudi output, Russian maintenance issues, and U.S. sanctions holding Iran around 3 Mb/d.[00:02:14] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Demand & SuppplyWith 2025 Henry Hub futures ~$10/MMBtu below 2024, surplus capacity and flat power-sector demand could pressure prices—unless Middle-East tensions keep a risk premium. LNG exports finally lift in ’25-’26, but dry-gas production must stay disciplined to avoid a repeat of 2020’s glut.[00:04:36] Exhibit A – Deficit Math & the Dollar Hunt’s model shows FY-2026 deficit shrinking to ~$1.5 T on tariff gains and flat discretionary spend—even as interest costs climb. Holding public debt at ~100% of GDP would stabilize the dollar’s reserve-currency status, though Mike and Jason question the optimism.[00:11:17] Chip History – The Rise of ARM & Hyperscale SiliconThe trio recounts AWS’s 2006-2014 ascent and why Amazon’s Graviton ARM CPU (2018) eroded Intel’s data-center share from 90% to [00:20:31] Sponsor Break – Oakcliff Sailing UpdateA quick detour to Oyster Bay’s high-performance training and thunder-storm escapades.[00:21:24] Apple’s Siri Seeks Outside AI (p.1)Apple may license external LLMs to upgrade Siri, even as it flirts with its own privacy rules. Jason argues Cupertino should position hardware as the on-ramp for every model rather than build one giant brain in-house.[00:24:09] Model Mash-Up – Microsoft AI Beats Doctors (p.1)Microsoft research shows ensembles of LLMs debating diagnoses achieve 4× physician accuracy. Mike already cross-checks ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity the same way—suggesting a multi-model future, not winner-take-all.[00:25:32] Healthcare Spotlight – Vertex & NIH Transparency (p. 15)Vertex’s phase-III kidney drug competitor hit 46% protein reduction vs. Vertex’s prior 66%, keeping VRTX best-in-class. Jason pegs CF cash flows at ~$400/sh of value, so today’s share price barely charges for the pipeline. NIH will require publicly funded studies to go open-access, potentially reshaping peer review.[00:27:35] RFK Jr. & Agency Talent (Exhibit A)Despite political controversy, RFK-era health agencies attract standout personnel, signaling renewed credibility.[00:28:12] Medicare & Medicaid Fraud Crackdown (Exhibit A)DOJ leverages new software to expose a $14 B identity-theft scheme—one bite out of an estimated $100 B in annual fraud, underscoring digital ROI in government healthcare.[00:28:52] Looking Ahead – GPUs & Software History Next week wraps chip history with GPUs, then rewinds to punch-card-era software. Until then, stay healthy and keep cash flowing!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn Episode 2526 the Telltales crew races through this week’s exhibits, rewinds the semiconductor timeline, and sizes up fresh tech-and-healthcare catalysts—from Tesla’s robotaxis to a federal ruling that shields AI training data.[00:00] Cold Open[00:00:56] Exhibit C – Global Oil BalanceHunt flags his revised crude-supply model: U.S. output unlikely to hit 13 Mb/d, Russia drifting under 9.8 Mb/d, and Saudi barrels rising. A 3–4 Mb/d surplus keeps Brent range-bound as risk premia compress post-cease-fire.[00:01:50] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural-Gas OutlookDry-gas production plateaus near 106 Bcfd; the Permian slowdown and tepid power demand temper growth. LNG exports shine, storage draws tighten, and $4 Henry Hub looks sticky through ’26.[00:03:41] Exhibit A – Uncle Sam’s Cash-Flow StatementA first cut of the FY-26 forecast still can’t close the deficit gap. Hunt explains why reconciliation math and 60-vote gridlock leave structural reform to House budget hawks.[00:04:39] Sponsor Break – Oakcliff SailingMike spotlights Oakcliff’s blistering boat-yard schedule and scholarship program, urging sailors to pay it forward.[00:05:26] Chip History: TSMC to AMD’s 64-Bit Breakthrough (p3)Morris Chang’s 1987 fab-only gamble births TSMC and unlocks fabless models. Jim Keller’s K7/K8 Athlon era briefly drags AMD to ~50 % x86 share, proving performance-per-watt can disrupt scale economics.[00:10:34] Distributed Computing & the Birth of AWS (p1)Jason recalls Yahoo/Google ditching multimillion-dollar mainframes for racks of $2 k servers, inventing “big data” along the way. Amazon’s 2006 epiphany—rent idle holiday capacity—spawns EC2 and S3.[00:15:23] Tech Trends: Who’s the Next AWS?Hunt games out winner-take-all odds. OpenAI owns mindshare, but Jason argues today’s AI and blockchain moves feel evolutionary, not the platform shift that cloud computing was.[00:17:51] Stablecoins & the GENIUS Act (p7)Mike/Jason debate Congress’s new bill mandating 1-for-1 Treasury backing. Bank-issued coins could soak up supply just as deficits balloon—yet Visa/Mastercard may cede little share if faster rails emerge.[00:19:42] Tesla Robotaxi Rollout (p1)Early Austin riders rave about the fully driverless service—another optionality boost to Tesla’s margin story.[00:19:50] Netflix Eyes Live TV (p4)A French broadcast deal hints at Netflix morphing into full-stack cable 2.0, chasing YouTube TV’s bundle play.[00:20:15] AI Fair-Use Win (p1)A California court says training an LLM on copyrighted books mirrors human reading—relieving Anthropic & peers from existential IP risk.[00:20:48] Harrow Adds BYQLOVI Rights (p20)For just $500 k up-front, Harrow tucks another ophthalmic asset into its commercial engine—classic bolt-on deal structure.[00:22:41] $HIMS vs. Novo Nordisk (p19)Novo yanks its GLP-1 direct-to-consumer pact, accusing HIMS of pushing compounded knock-offs. Mike calls out HIMSS’s dubious IP posture and healthcare conflicts.[00:24:34] Healthcare Rulebook: Price Transparency & Prior Auth (p15, 19-20)CMS signals mandatory net-price disclosure; HHS moves 280 M insured lives toward e-prior-auth to slash admin friction.[00:26:09] Taxing Pharma Ads (p15, 19)The White House floats nixing ad-cost deductions. Lilly’s $1.5 B budget and Regeneron’s spend make them prime targets—an indirect curb on DTC pharma blitzes.[00:28:04] Next Week: iPhone, GPUs & the Energy Cost of ComputeThe crew tees up Keller’s performance-per-watt legacy in mobile and modern AI training, promising one last chip-history chapter.Thanks for listening! Subscribe on telltales.us for the full memo and catch next week’s deep dive into Apple silicon and GPU economics.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESTelltales dives into the week’s Cash-Flow Memo with a global tour of oil markets, U.S. fiscal math, fast-moving FDA reforms, and the AI talent wars—plus a new national sailing ranking and a teaser for next week’s chip-history deep dive.[00:00] Intro (–)Mike, Hunt, and Jason set the stage for 30 minutes of energy, tech, and healthcare analysis, remind listeners of the Cash-Flow Memo at Telltales.us, and roll the standard disclaimer.[00:38] Iran Tensions & Spare Oil Capacity (Exhibit C)Hunt explains why fresh geopolitical alarms around Iran may fizzle out in a few weeks, leaving ~3.5 MMbbl/d of potential supply still sidelined. The hosts outline short-term implications for global crude flows and price risk.[01:35] Oil & Gas Price Outlook (Exhibit B)Reviewing latest strip prices, they note WTI firming to $72–73 while 2026 remains in backwardation. Natural-gas production appears to be leveling near 105–106 Bcf/d, bolstering Hunt’s $3.80–$3.90/MMBtu 2025 forecast and a constructive view for gas-weighted E&Ps.[02:48] U.S. Budget, Deficit & Medicaid Debate (Exhibit A)The Senate’s “big, beautiful bill” could trim the FY-27 deficit toward $1.6 T, but Hunt warns that savings must come from the “all-other” spending bucket. Mike highlights how California and New York face scrutiny over Medicaid outlays, which represent roughly one-third of California’s budget.[05:10] Healthcare Spending & Agency Leadership (Exhibit A)With RFK Jr.’s appointees running key health agencies, the team is cautiously optimistic that overall healthcare costs might flatten, echoing Medicaid’s recent plateau near $600 B. They argue real deficit progress is impossible without taming healthcare inflation.[05:50] RFK Jr. Guts Vaccine Committee (Exhibit A)Jason details RFK Jr.’s wholesale dismissal of all 17 CDC immunization-committee members—13 installed late in the prior administration—sparking worries about anti-vax influence. New appointees are expected soon, leaving policy direction uncertain.[07:27] FDA Reforms: Gene Therapy, AI & Two-Month Reviews (Exhibit A)Highlights from the FDA’s cell-and-gene roundtable: proposals to socialize million-dollar curative therapies and a pilot AI system already speeding protocol reviews. A new priority-review-voucher program could slash approval times from a year to as little as two months—worth $160 M in time value for drug sponsors.[13:26] Linking Healthcare Fixes to Fiscal Health (Exhibit A)Hunt argues that meaningful deficit reduction hinges on the success of such FDA and agency reforms; without healthcare savings, the spending problem remains unsolved.[14:09] Apple, Google & the AI Arms Race (Page 1)Jason warns Apple’s delayed Siri overhaul hands Android a nine-month head start, while Hunt questions the sustainability of Google’s $20 B/year default-search payments. The trio debates OpenAI’s potential antitrust complaint against Microsoft and the murky definition of AGI.[18:42] ILCA 7 Top-Mark Rankings Launch (–)Olympic hopeful Daniel Escudero introduces a transparent ranking system for U.S. ILCA 7 sailors, aimed at unifying domestic and international performance metrics and strengthening America’s 2028 Olympic bid.[20:02] AI Talent War & Meta’s $100 M Bonuses (p. 4)Meta reportedly dangles nine-figure packages to lure elite AI engineers away from OpenAI and Anthropic. Mike notes the scarcity of experts who can fully exploit rapidly advancing hardware, tilting the battlefield toward deep-pocket incumbents.[22:12] Vertex’s Type-1 Diabetes Cure & Other Healthcare Stocks (Page 15)Jason outlines how a new two-month FDA voucher could let Vertex ($VRTX) win approval for its stem-cell therapy within five years—transformative despite immunosuppressant hurdles. Hunt flags mixed trial results and the limited 60 k-patient addressable market.[24:25] Next Week: From Wintel to GPUs (–)Mike previews the continuation of their semiconductor history series—resurrecting AMD, the dawn of distributed computing, mobile’s rise, GPUs, and TSMC’s fabs.[25:25] Must-Listen: Morris Chang on TSMC (–)Hunt endorses the Acquired podcast’s long-form interview with TSMC founder Morris Chang, calling it essential for anyone investing in AI hardware; links will be in the episode email.[27:38] Outro & Subscribe (–)The hosts sign off, teasing next Wednesday’s show and encouraging listeners to join the mailing list at Telltales.us.Stay tuned, share the episode with a fellow market-watcher, and hit subscribe so you never miss our weekly memo-to-mic breakdown.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates hav

SHOWNOTESThis week Mike, Jason, and Hunt sprint through oil, gas, tariffs, chips, tech launches, AI financing drama, and the brewing revolt against pharmacy-benefit managers—wrapping with Harrow’s latest capital-allocation coup.[00:00] Intro [00:01] Exhibit C – Oil Oversupply & the Iran Stalemate (Exhibit C)Hunt explains why global crude stays firm near $65–66 despite clear oversupply, tracing it to dead-locked U.S.–Iran negotiations over centrifuges.[00:02] Exhibit B – Natural Gas Holds the Line (Exhibit B)Production hovers around 106 Bcf/d; flat U.S. power demand is offset by LNG exports and cold-weather consumption, keeping prices around $4.[00:03] Exhibit A – Tariffs & U.S. Fiscal Math (Exhibit A)Tariff receipts could hit $700 B if it reaches $60 B per month. Jason notes China-related levies may settle near 35 % (ex-fentanyl).[00:04] Rare-Earth Magnets vs. NVIDIA Chips: Trade-Deal Leverage (p.1)China throttles drone-part exports and magnets; the U.S. counters with chip restrictions—highlighting mutual dependencies and a possible “chips-for-magnets” swap.[00:07] CPI Calm Despite Tariff Talk (Exhibit A)May inflation data shows little price pressure so far, challenging economists’ warnings of tariff-driven CPI spikes.[00:07] Chip History – From 386 to the WINTEL Juggernaut (p.3)Mike and Jason revisit Intel’s pivot to CPUs, the rise of the 386, Microsoft’s DOS/Windows partnership, and the CISC vs. RISC debate that shaped desktop dominance.[00:14] Apple WWDC: Liquid-Glass UX & the Missing AI Play (p.1)Jason critiques Apple’s “liquid glass” interface—translucent icons that hint at an AR future—while lamenting Cupertino’s AI lag despite iron-clad customer lock-in.[00:18] xAI’s $5 B Debt Deal Stumbles (p.1)Morgan Stanley shelves a 12 % syndicated loan after Elon’s tweet-storm; Hunt wonders if weak X/Twitter revenue can support the spend.[00:19] Could Tesla Scoop Up xAI? (p.1)Jason weighs the pros and cons of rolling xAI into Tesla—synergies with FSD and humanoid robots versus dilution and distraction.[00:22] UnitedHealth, PBMs & the Rot in U.S. Healthcare (p.19)The crew argues that dismantling pharmacy-benefit managers is step #1 to break insurers’ “raise-premiums-faster-than-costs” model, potentially shrinking UNH’s growth engine.[00:27] Harrow Licenses BYQLOVI™ for Peanuts (p.20)Harrow (HROW) nabs U.S. rights to a nanoparticle steroid eyedrop for only $500 K—an ideal plug-in for its ophthalmology sales force and a textbook capital-allocation win.[00:29] Outro This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00] Cold Open[00:00:47] Exhibit C – World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt explains how OPEC + and Saudi Arabia are phasing curtailments out of the market—potentially adding 1.2 Mbbl/d in just three months—and why that could pressure crude prices if capacity rises to an 11 Mbbl/d run-rate.[00:02:09] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook (Exhibit B)Despite AI-powered data-center hype, gas‐fired power demand is flat; LNG exports remain the bright spot, expected to average 16 Bcf/d this year and 18 + next. With dry-gas output steady near 106 Bcf/d, Hunt believes $4 gas can hold.[00:03:04] Exhibit A – Federal Revenues & Spending (Exhibit A)The team dissects why revenues climb toward $5 T while expenses swell over $6 T, singling out interest costs and discretionary outlays—not Medicare/Medicaid—as the chief deficit drivers. Musk’s critique of “big and beautiful” budgets sparks debate on trimming the trillion-dollar gap.[00:08:00] Chip History: Intel’s Logical PivotMike traces Intel’s leap from DRAM to CPUs, IBM’s game-changing cross-licensing deal with AMD, and how founder intuition (Gordon Moore, Andy Grove) enabled the x86 juggernaut—raising questions about Intel’s later misses in mobile and AI.[00:14:00] Top Mark Rankings for ILCA 7 Sailing Guest Daniel Escudero unveils a transparent, points-based ranking system to track U.S. ILCA 7 sailors, aiming to boost Olympic competitiveness while rallying the sailing community.[00:15:58] Semiconductor Capacity Crunch — NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML (p. 3)Hunt and Jason unpack hyperscalers’ hunt for NVIDIA alternatives, TSMC’s monopoly on advanced packaging, and whether Intel’s Arizona fab can catch up. TSMC’s disciplined CapEx (~$40 B for 2025) signals another doubling of AI-chip throughput.[00:22:01] Meta’s Nuclear Power Deal (p. 4)Meta locks in output from an aging Illinois reactor, giving Constellation the confidence to invest in life-extension upgrades—an early example of data centers turning to baseload nuclear for green power.[00:23:18] Apple’s In-House AI Challenge (p. 1)Rumors swirl of Apple’s ChatGPT-class model; the hosts debate whether Big Tech has been sandbagging releases and what fast-follow strategies mean for AI moats.[00:25:38] BioNTech–Bristol Myers Cancer Deal (p. 15)A $3.5 B bispecific antibody partnership raises eyebrows: BioNTech de-risks promising oncology assets while Jason questions whether combo drugs outperform separate therapies.[00:27:47] Weight-Loss Drug Price War (p. 19)Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk cut GLP-1 prices toward $400/month as compounding pharmacies and next-gen oral pills loom, reminding investors that pharma “cash cows” have finite pasture.[00:30:04] UnitedHealth: Indispensable or Indefensible? (p. 19)With UNH shares halved and a new CEO, the trio spar over whether PBMs are too vertically integrated, if UNH can be re-formed, or if the system must “burn it to the ground” to lower costs—setting up next week’s deep dive.[00:32:55] Closing Thanks for tuning in! Grab the full Cash Flow Memo, share your thoughts on AI-chip capacity or healthcare reform, and subscribe so you never miss an episode.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team analyzes Nvidia's upcoming earnings amid 70% free cash flow margins, explores the fascinating history of Intel's founding by the "Traitorous Eight," and discusses major developments in AI competition and healthcare.[00:48] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand (Page 1) Hunt notes oil prices holding in the $60 range despite OPEC+ production increases of 400,000 barrels/day per month. The backwardation in futures has flattened out, suggesting US production may plateau and decline by 400,000 barrels/day annually as capex follows cash flow down.[01:15] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply (Page 1) Analysis of natural gas markets and production trends across major US basins including Permian, Haynesville, and Marcellus.[02:39] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses (Page 1) Discussion of federal deficit projections showing improvement from $1.93 trillion to $1.78 trillion. Mike highlights Elon Musk's disappointment with lack of spending cuts in the recent budget bill, which increased spending by $200 billion. Trump's tariff proposals would generate under $300 billion annually - about 7-8% of federal revenue.[04:05] Semiconductor History II: The Traitorous Eight & The Rise of Intel Mike corrects last week's history, explaining how William Shockley left Bell Labs to start Shockley Semiconductor, then eight key employees (the "Traitorous Eight" including Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce) left to found Fairchild Semiconductor with $500 each. Fairchild pioneered silicon wafers and photolithography for integrated circuits, with early contracts from the military including the F-14 Tomcat's flight computer. Intel was founded in 1968 by Noyce, Moore, and Andy Grove, initially focusing on DRAM memory chips.[09:28] Anthropic's New Models Challenge OpenAI (Page 1) Mike discusses Anthropic's new cutting-edge model beating benchmarks, noting their B2B developer focus versus OpenAI's consumer approach. The Microsoft-OpenAI alliance has evolved as both companies now compete for enterprise customers, with Microsoft supporting multiple language models including Anthropic.[11:38] Apple's AI Strategy Dilemma (Page 1) Hunt raises concerns about OpenAI's $6 billion valuation for Johnny Ive's new venture as a threat to Apple. Jason suggests Apple should become the platform for accessing all AI models rather than competing directly, similar to Microsoft's agnostic approach.[14:09] Google Search Under AI Threat (Page 1) Discussion of whether Google can maintain its search monopoly as AI transforms information retrieval. The team notes Google's AI responses are good but lack conversational follow-up, while users remain conditioned to traditional search queries.[16:52] Nvidia Earnings Preview & Competition (Page 3) Hunt highlights Nvidia's recovery from $90 to $130, trading at a 2% free cash flow yield with unprecedented 60-70% margins on $130 billion revenue run rate. Jason believes margins will hold for 1-2 years before ASICs potentially capture market share. Mike argues Nvidia's software ecosystem and datacenter-level solutions provide lasting pricing power, estimating ASICs may only capture 20% market share in three years.[22:03] Healthcare News GLP-1 drugs from Eli Lilly now available direct-to-consumer for $300-350/month versus $1000+ with insurance, using vials instead of pens for better dose control. A new blood test for Alzheimer's detecting beta amyloid was approved, enabling earlier diagnosis. CVS is closing all Arkansas pharmacies after the state banned companies from owning both PBMs and pharmacies, potentially foreshadowing national regulatory changes.Next week, the team will continue their semiconductor history series with Intel's rise to dominance and eventual decline. Download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us for complete financial analysis of 80 companies across these sectors.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, we explore the real drivers behind oil prices, analyze new trends in semiconductor manufacturing and AI infrastructure, and unveil the first in a series on the history of chips, software, and biotech. Plus, Regeneron makes a surprising buy.[01:00] Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt discusses Exhibit C, detailing global oil supply and demand trends. He notes that while demand is stable, excess capacity and increased output from OPEC+ could push prices lower. U.S. production is likely to flatten or decline slightly, contributing to a delicate supply-demand balance.[05:26] US Gas Market Overview (Exhibit B)Natural gas prices have stabilized around $3.80/MMBtu after a sharp fall from the Ukraine-driven 2022 spike. Hunt explains that supply increases, particularly from the Permian Basin, have kept pace with demand. Future price strength depends on whether supply growth continues.[07:20] Federal Budget and Deficit Outlook (Exhibit A)The team reviews U.S. government revenues and expenditures through 2026, highlighting modest deficit improvements but noting the need for further spending restraint. Hunt advises caution for investors and encourages keeping capital on hand in case of market dislocations.[11:08] Semiconductor History SegmentIn a new feature, the team begins tracing the history of semiconductors, starting with Bell Labs and William Shockley’s development of the first transistor in 1947. They discuss how early equity structures shaped Silicon Valley and set the tone for innovation-driven compensation models.[15:28] Big Tech and AI Model Shifts (Page 1)Jason explains a major shift in AI architecture toward reasoning-based models. He also covers announcements from Google I/O, including Gemini agent capabilities and enhanced video generation. OpenAI’s acquisition of Jony Ive’s startup ‘IO’ is seen as a countermove to Google’s strong showing.[19:37] Semicap and U.S. Fab Investments (Page 3)Discussion shifts to TSMC and Intel’s U.S. manufacturing expansions. Arizona fabs are scaling, but remain a fraction of Taiwan’s output. Intel’s foundry strategy faces skepticism but may appeal to customers like Nvidia seeking more capacity.[21:31] Tesla, OpenAI, and Strategic AI Infrastructure (Page 1)Tesla plans a $25B GPU investment to build out the Colossus data center. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s acquisition of ‘IO’ is framed as a strategic response to Google’s momentum. The episode questions whether OpenAI can maintain its innovation lead.[23:43] Oakcliff Sailing UpdateAn interlude featuring Oakcliff Sailing’s latest activities and upcoming races, including the Block Island and Annapolis-Newport races. A call for marketing help is included along with discounted SailGP tickets.[25:52] FDA Podcast and Healthcare Regulation (Page 19)Jason highlights an FDA podcast where the commissioner explores ideas for faster clinical trials. This could reduce burdens on pharmaceutical sponsors and accelerate innovation.[26:30] Regeneron Buys 23andMe (Page 19)Regeneron acquires 23andMe for ~$250M, gaining access to a large genetic database. Jason discusses the potential to mine this data for novel drug discoveries and why 23andMe failed to capitalize on it.[27:30] Lantheus, Vertex, and Imaging Trends (Page 15)Positive trends for Lantheus emerge as imaging markets grow, especially for prostate cancer and Alzheimer’s diagnostics. Vertex faces competition from a reformulated generic pain drug. These developments shape expectations for both firms.[30:27] Top Mark Sailing RankingsMike unveils the Top Mark Rankings—a leaderboard supporting Olympic-class sailors en route to LA 2028. The initiative offers visibility and structure to U.S.-based competitors and is backed by Top Mark Capital.Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe for weekly deep dives into the companies, technologies, and economic forces shaping our future. For more, visit telltales.us.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode Mike, Jason, and Hunt weave together energy markets, semiconductor geopolitics, and healthcare shake‑ups to surface the cash‑flow signals that matter most for investors navigating 2025.[00:00] Intro[00:00:38] Oil & Gas Snapshot – Exhibits C & B (pp. 1‑2)Hunt dissects world crude supply, flagging likely production lifts from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Iran. Despite OPEC+ relaxation, Brent has held near $60‑$70, suggesting bearish expectations were largely priced in.[00:03:13] US Fiscal Stress – Exhibit A (p. 3)A proposed U.S. budget expands defense outlays instead of trimming them, leaving Medicare/Medicaid untouched. Jason notes DOJ plans for Rapid‑FI fraud‑prevention at CMS—software triaging payments before dollars leave the Treasury.[00:05:31] Semiconductor Decoupling: China vs NVIDIA (p. 4)The team explores how tariff walls could birth a “parallel CUDA” inside China. Jason argues NVIDIA’s global moat is its CUDA software layer; Huawei must replicate both silicon and ecosystem. Mike warns that isolation often breeds disruptive alternatives.[00:10:16] STEM Surge & ASML Imitation (p. 4)China graduates 1.2 million engineers annually and is racing to copy ASML‑grade lithography in‑house. Hunt frames it as strategic absorption of surplus engineering talent.[00:11:48] Sponsor Break – Oakcliff Sailing (n/a)A quick cinematic detour to Oakcliff’s foiling chase boats.[00:12:48] Tesla vs BYD: Premium or Mass‑Market? (p. 1)Mike maintains Tesla commands pricing power as long as its FSD remains materially ahead. BYD’s scale threatens margins, while Xiaomi’s FSD setback highlights liability clouds.[00:15:13] Berkshire AGM & Currency Risk With $348 B in Treasuries, Buffett flags dollar debasement as his top worry. Jason speculates Berkshire might deploy cash into healthcare‑system rescues or grid build‑outs under Greg Abel.[00:17:46] Q1 Tech Earnings: $MSFT & $META LeadMeta hikes CapEx despite cost‑cut talk; Microsoft beats street expectations, underlining durable AI spending.[00:18:06] AI Monetization & Google’s Defensive Stance Meta shifts transformer models into ad ranking. Apple hints at AI‑search alternatives, threatening Google’s 96 % share—Jason imagines personal‑shopper agents disrupting traditional search ads.[00:20:18] Healthcare Round‑Up IQVIA reports U.S. drug spend up 11.5 %, driven by GLP‑1s. Vinay Prasad’s FDA appointment spooks biotech; proposed NIH reproducibility mandate could reshape study economics.[00:22:51] Vertex: Pipeline Check & Russian IP Leak (p. 15)Despite market jitters, Vertex eyes 2026 FDA submission for a Type 1 diabetes cure; Russian generic CF therapy is a one‑off hit.[00:25:09] Lantheus: Diagnostics Thrive Amid Setbacks (Page 15)Cancellation of a prostate‑therapy program hurts the stock, yet Novartis’s competing therapy expands demand for Lantheus’s PSMA‑PET scans. Tau‑PET for Alzheimer’s heads to the FDA next quarter.[00:27:00] Harrow & Dry‑Eye Market Potential (Page 20)Ophthalmologists praise Harrow’s Vevye; earnings tomorrow will gauge uptake velocity.[00:27:35] Oral GLP‑1 Pills – The Next Obesity Wave (Page 19)Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk advance daily tablets, enabling dose flexibility. Micro‑dosing experiments by athletes hint at broader niches.[00:28:40] Outro & DisclaimersThe hosts wrap with a reminder: do your own work; positions may be held.Thanks for sailing with us. Subscribe, drop a review, and grab the weekly Cash‑Flow Memo at Telltales.us—your compass for markets in motion.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this fast-moving 30-minute round-table, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace and Hunt Lawrence assess how an accelerating economic split between the United States and China would ripple through energy, technology, healthcare, retail and more. Drawing on their weekly Cash-Flow Memo, they move page-by-page through a 20-page company list and three macro “Exhibits,” highlighting immediate supply-chain pain points and the longer-term strategic pivots each industry may need. (Nicoletti et al., 2025)A broad decoupling between the United States and China dominates this week’s discussion. Mike, Hunt and Jason walk through oil, gas and budget exhibits before racing down a twenty-page memo to gauge which companies—and whole industries—win, lose, or merely swerve if trade barriers harden.[00:00] Intro (n/a)Mike opens with a blunt warning that current China-chip policy is “shooting ourselves in the foot,” then welcomes listeners, sets the 30-minute agenda (energy / tech / healthcare) and plays the standard disclaimer.[00:00:45] China’s Oil Demand & OPEC Strategy (Exhibit C)Hunt notes China’s oil consumption “flat-lines” as EV adoption and a softer economy bite, while Saudi Arabia deliberately withholds 4 Mb/d of spare capacity to nudge a U.S.–Iran deal and keep prices firm.[00:02:20] U.S. Natural-Gas Snapshot (Exhibit B)Oil hovers near $60 and gas slips toward $4, but the bigger story is record dry-gas output (≈106 Bcf/d). LNG exports rise from 13 Bcf/d to 16 Bcf/d, keeping demand solid even as supply pressure increases.[00:03:15] Tariffs, Deficits & the Decoupling Thought-Experiment (Exhibit A)Tariff revenue (~$300 B) is “something—but not much” versus a $1-2 T deficit. Hunt argues spending must fall to $5.5 T by FY-2026 or risk failed Treasury auctions. The hosts decide to sprint through 20 memo pages to test how a full U.S.–China decoupling would hit specific companies today and over time.[00:07:24] Consumer & Logistics First-Look (pp. 20 – 17)Five Below faces supply-shock pain; Uber, DoorDash and Airbnb see muted but real pressure as Chinese outbound travel cools. Albemarle could actually benefit if U.S. lithium refining scales, while FedEx, UPS and Nike brace for cross-border friction.[00:12:16] Food, Hospitality & Beverage (p. 16)Hilton suffers from falling international traffic; Starbucks and McDonald’s risk lost China earnings; Chipotle and Celsius feel minimal direct effects, though Chipotle’s avocado pipeline stays on watch.[00:12:52] Pharma & Rare-Earth Bottlenecks (p. 15)High margins give Pfizer, Moderna and peers tariff-absorbing room, yet Lantheus and Novartis depend on rare-earth isotopes, and Vertex still manufactures heavily in China—raising near-term supply-chain headaches.[00:15:08] Heavy Equipment & Industrials (p. 14)Caterpillar’s China plants become a liability, but Deere touts COVID-era playbooks that diversified its bolt-and-washer suppliers; Generac and TDG watch input costs but are structurally resilient.[00:16:10] Banks & Upstream Energy (pp. 13 – 11)JPMorgan, Goldman and Interactive Brokers often thrive on volatility; shale producers can throttle cap-ex if crude weakens; LNG policy quirks (cash penalties on Chinese-built tankers) add risk to exporters.[00:17:20] Retail Supply-Chain Stress Test (pp. 10 – 8)Empty shelves loom at Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s if Beijing throttles exports during the critical holiday-ordering window—port activity on the U.S. West Coast is already down sharply.[00:18:50] Payments & Telecoms (pp. 7 – 6)Visa, Mastercard and PayPal feel mild drag from lower travel spend, while Comcast, Charter, AT&T and Verizon are largely insulated.[00:19:11] Media & Advertising Dependence (p. 4)Netflix’s China footprint is tiny, but Meta’s U.S. ad buyers still rely on Chinese-made goods; a consumption slowdown could trim revenue despite Meta’s global scale.[00:20:06] Semiconductors & Diverging Tech Stacks (p. 3)Nvidia’s real China exposure remains opaque; decoupling may spur Huawei-led domestic GPU designs and alternative EUV lithography paths, while TSMC hedges with six advanced fabs plus a new R-and-D hub in Arizona.[00:26:33] Enterprise Software & Data Centers (p. 2)Broadcom’s hardware faces tariff risk; Oracle’s database business is sizable in China; Salesforce, ServiceNow and Snowflake are affected indirectly through data-center gear assembled in China.[00:27:36] Oakcliff Sailing Interlude (n/a)A quick update from the deck of the JB-66 en route to Oyster Bay showcases ongoing support for Oakcliff training programs.[00:28:22] Big Tech & E-Commerce Reality Check (p. 1)Apple’s high-end iPhones still rely on China’s skilled assembly lines, with India ramp-up years away. Amazon mirrors Walmart’s “empty-shelf, higher-cost” dilemma—your $10 USB-C cable may soon cost $15 if production reshoring proves pricey.[00:31:00] Closing & Next-Week Preview Hunt tees up a deeper dive on Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla valuations, jokes that New York has out-weathered San Diego lately, and sign

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses Tesla's robotaxi rollout, healthcare changes under the Trump administration, and Netflix's potential foray into sports streaming. They analyze the implications of these developments on their respective industries and explore future possibilities.[00:00:23] Intro Mike welcomes listeners to the Telltales podcast, where the hosts dive deep into energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:00:54] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt notes that ongoing discussions with Iran and Russia's willingness to extend the Easter truce reduce the likelihood of sanctions in the near term, leading to an oversupply of oil compared to demand. However, he believes Saudi Arabia will maintain discipline in the market to keep Iran happy.[00:03:45] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Hunt highlights the decline in natural gas prices for 2026 and the flatline in power demand, despite the industry's efficiency. LNG demand is expected to make up for the lack of growth in power demand.[00:05:21] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES The team discusses the challenges in reducing the deficit, with Doge's efforts to find waste and inefficiency falling short. They anticipate difficulties in achieving significant spending cuts under the Trump administration.[00:07:24] Tesla's Robotaxi Rollout (Page 1) Jason and Mike discuss Tesla's announcement of launching a 20-car robotaxi fleet in Austin, expressing disappointment in the small scale and the presence of drivers in the vehicles. They compare Tesla's approach to Waymo's autonomous vehicle program.[00:18:46] Oakcliff Sailing Dawn Riley provides an update on Oakcliff Sailing's activities, including boat preparations, events, and collaborations.[00:20:21] Healthcare News (Page 19) Jason discusses the FDA's plan to phase out petroleum-based food dyes, the importance of a healthier population in reducing healthcare costs, and the Trump administration's executive order addressing various aspects of the healthcare system, such as the "pill penalty," Medicaid accounting, and PBM transparency.[00:27:00] Netflix Earnings & Future of Sports Streaming (Page 4) The team analyzes Netflix's strong performance and its potential to venture into sports streaming. They discuss the challenges and opportunities for Netflix in acquiring sports content and the evolving landscape of sports media rights.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, providing insights into the future of transportation, healthcare reforms, and the streaming industry. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions on these subjects and their potential impact on investors.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this week’s Cash Flow Memo, the team examines the Fed’s market impact on tariffs, energy markets, and tech giants’ AI strategies. Hunt opens with Trump’s rapid tariff reversal amid bond auction jitters, then walks us through oil & gas supply/demand, U.S. budget dynamics, and the implications for AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META, Walmart, Uber & DoorDash. We also pause for a message from Oakcliff Sailing and close with healthcare, energy, and financial sector updates.00:00 Cold Open: Trump’s Tariff Retreat 00:40 Exhibit C – World Oil Supply/Demand Analysis 01:02 Exhibit B – U.S. Gas Demand/Supply Trends 03:08 Exhibit A – U.S. Government Revenues & Expenses 07:34 Page 1 – Apple’s AI & Tariff Headwinds 10:51 Page 1 – Microsoft Copilot Adoption 12:44 Page 3 – NVIDIA’s H20 Export Ban Fallout 14:30 Page 4 – Netflix & Meta FTC Testimony 17:41 Page 8 – Walmart vs. Amazon 4‑Hour Delivery 19:42 Page 20 – Uber & DoorDash Tariff Immunity 23:37 Sponsor Break: Oakcliff Sailing Update 25:16 Healthcare News: Eli Lilly & Food‑Additive Rules 27:33 Energy Updates (Pages 10–12) 32:14 Financials: Q1 Earnings for JPM, MS, GS, IBKR 35:17 Closing Remarks & Next Week’s Preview This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this abbreviated episode, Mike and Jason discuss the recent tariff issues between the US and China, their potential impact on the tech and healthcare industries, and the implications of NVIDIA's AI breakthroughs for data center efficiency. They also compare the resilience of Coca-Cola and NVIDIA as investments during a potential recession.[00:00:54] Intro The hosts explain the reason for the abbreviated episode due to recording issues and announce the focus on healthcare and tech topics.[00:01:50] Tariff 90-day Pause Mike and Jason discuss the recent 90-day pause in tariff implementation announced by Trump, noting that China was singled out among all global economies. They speculate on the potential national security implications and the US's dependence on China for critical supply chains.[00:03:55] Tariff Loopholes The hosts discuss a loophole in the tariffs, where landing a GPU in Canada or Mexico would qualify for a 0% tariff under the USMCA trade agreement. They question the effectiveness of the tariffs given the ease of circumvention.[00:04:44] Datacenter Capex Pullback? Mike and Jason discuss the potential impact of Microsoft canceling data center capacity and leases on the hyperscalers' CapEx spending. They consider the role of OpenAI's partnership with Oracle in this shift and the implications for NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300 demand.[00:07:36] Other Capex Announcements The hosts mention Google's reaffirmation of their $75 billion CapEx commitment and OpenAI's large funding round, suggesting that there are still willing buyers even if there is slack in GB200 demand.[00:07:59] Another 'DeepSeek' Moment, This Time from NVIDIA Mike and Jason discuss NVIDIA's announcement of optimizing Meta's Llama model to produce better reasoning than DeepSeek at half the size. They highlight the importance of software improvements alongside hardware advancements and the potential for Hopper servers to remain useful by running these optimized models.[00:11:34] Coke vs. NVIDIA The hosts compare the investment prospects of Coca-Cola and NVIDIA, both trading at similar earnings multiples, in the face of a potential recession. They discuss the risks to Coca-Cola's revenue from changes to the SNAP program and the growth potential of NVIDIA despite possible short-term challenges.[00:13:49] Healthcare News Jason shares updates on Vertex's Journavx pain treatment, noting its widespread availability in US pharmacies. He also mentions Trump's promise of major pharmaceutical tariffs, though the timeline remains uncertain given the 90-day tariff pause.The episode concludes with a reminder from Warren Buffett to embrace market downturns as opportunities to "eat more hamburgers while they're cheap."NVDA 0.00%↑ KO 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team dives deep into healthcare investing with a focus on Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Lantheus Holdings. They also discuss Apple's AI challenges, the complexities of secure government communication, and the outlook for energy markets in light of geopolitical uncertainties and the hunt for federal spending cuts.[00:00:00] Intro Mike welcomes listeners to the Telltales podcast, where the hosts bring the weekly Cash Flow Memo to dive deep into energy, technology, and healthcare investing.[00:00:38] Exhibit C: World Oil supply and demand (Page 1) Hunt discusses the uncertainty around Russian sanctions and Iran's oil production, noting that the oversupply of oil is not likely to be reduced by sanctions alone.[00:01:44] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Page 1) Hunt highlights the increase in LNG demand by 1.5-2 Bcf/d, driven by faster-than-expected capacity ramp-ups at Venture Global's Plaquemines Parish and Cheniere's Corpus Christi projects. Gas prices for 2025 and 2026 are projected at $4.40.[00:02:47] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Page 1) The team discusses the challenges of finding $500 billion in spending cuts as the House moves to increase the debt ceiling. Actual work on reducing spending from $6-7 trillion will likely be delayed until the 12 expenditure bills are addressed.[00:03:45] Apple's AI Struggles (Page 1) Jason and Mike analyze Apple's challenges in developing a generative AI version of Siri, with a potential release not expected until 2027. They discuss the company's leadership changes, software issues, and the complexities of creating a secure, AI-powered virtual assistant.[00:10:10] Security, Signal App, and Government Communication The hosts explore the challenges of secure communication for government officials, discussing the limitations of traditional secure facilities (SCIFs) and the adoption of apps like Signal. They also touch on the trade-offs between transparency and the quality of decision-making in large organizations.[00:18:54] Healthcare Updates Hunt introduces a discussion on healthcare investing, focusing on Lantheus and Vertex Pharmaceuticals as quality businesses with strong cash flows, despite potential risks from reduced Medicare and Medicaid spending.[00:20:12] Company Analysis: Vertex Pharmaceuticals Mike dives into Vertex Pharmaceuticals, discussing the company's unique history, its successful pivot to cystic fibrosis treatments, and its promising pipeline in non-opioid pain management. He emphasizes the importance of investing in companies with strong capital allocation and long-term growth potential.[00:25:45] Company Analysis: Lantheus Holdings Jason explains Lantheus Holdings' business in radio diagnostics for prostate cancer imaging. While current growth has stalled due to market saturation, he highlights the potential for increased demand driven by new radiopharmaceutical treatments and the company's optionality in Alzheimer's diagnostics.[00:28:57] Vertex Pharmaceuticals Diabetes Moonshot Discussion The team discusses Vertex's early-stage but promising type 1 diabetes treatment, which has been accelerated from phase 1 to phase 3 trials. They emphasize the importance of investing in companies with strong core businesses and considering pipeline programs as optionality.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, providing valuable insights into healthcare, technology, and energy investing. Tune in next week for more in-depth discussions, starting with a deeper dive into healthcare companies like Vertex, Lantheus, and Harrow.VRTX 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in energy, technology, and healthcare. They analyze the potential impact of a second Trump term on oil and gas markets, dive into Nvidia's AI dominance and the future of inferencing, and explore Tesla's challenges and opportunities in the evolving EV landscape.[00:00:55] Energy Market & Oil Supply Discussion (Exhibit C) Hunt believes that oil supply is unlikely to change based on the recent Putin-Trump phone call. He suggests that the US Treasury may curtail some Russian production and discusses the potential for conflict between Israel and Iran, which could tighten the oil market.[00:03:40] Natural Gas and LNG Update (Exhibit B) Hunt notes that natural gas demand is good, and LNG facilities are being approved under the Trump administration. He highlights the increase in power demand for natural gas and the potential for further growth in LNG exports.[00:06:54] US Government Fiscal Policy & Budget Outlook (Exhibit A) Hunt discusses the challenges of reducing government spending and the deficit, particularly in the "all other" category. He emphasizes the need for the Trump administration to propose a budget with significant spending cuts and hopes for economic growth to lower the debt-to-GNP ratio.[00:10:28] 2 Podcast Recommendations Mike recommends an interview with Scott Bessent on the All In Podcast, which covers the administration's plans for tariffs and their agenda. Hunt suggests listening to a three-hour podcast interview with Morris Chang, the founder of Taiwan Semiconductor, for those interested in the tech industry.[00:14:02] Tesla and EV Market Developments Jason discusses the challenges facing Tesla, including public backlash, declining sales in China, and competition from BYD's fast-charging technology. Mike mentions that Tesla has obtained a permit for testing their robotaxis in California, which could signal progress in their self-driving technology.[00:17:35] Healthcare Earnings and Drug Developments Jason provides an update on Harrow's preliminary earnings and the market's positive reaction, despite the delayed release of their 10-K. Mike highlights the potential of Harrow's Triessence drug and its patent protection through 2029.[00:22:00] Technology Update: Nvidia Investor Day & AI Inferencing Jason and Mike discuss the key takeaways from Nvidia's Investor Day, focusing on the company's advancements in AI inferencing, power efficiency, and data center optimization. They explore Nvidia's competitive position against hyperscalers like Google and AWS, and the potential impact of their new Blackwell chips.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, providing insights into the latest developments and potential future trends in energy, technology, and healthcare. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions and analysis.NVDA 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ HROW 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

ShownotesIn this episode, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence cover the latest in energy, technology, healthcare, and updates on U.S. fiscal policy. The conversation explores recent developments in semiconductor manufacturing, natural gas and oil markets, and innovative breakthroughs in gene sequencing.[00:00] IntroMike introduces the episode and highlights key discussion topics including energy, technology, and healthcare. He reminds listeners to download the accompanying memo for detailed financial data and analysis.[00:43] World Oil Supply & Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt discusses recent adjustments in oil supply from Russia and Saudi Arabia, noting increased global surplus and largely stagnant demand. Despite speculation about China, actual demand growth is minimal. Geopolitical factors involving Russia and Iran suggest uncertainty, potentially pointing to flat or declining oil prices ahead.[02:10] US Gas Demand & Supply Outlook (Exhibit B)Natural gas production is increasing significantly, supported by robust LNG facilities coming online. Although there’s significant public discussion about power demand driven by data centers, actual demand growth remains steady, tracking closely with previous years’ growth patterns.[03:16] US Government Revenues and Expenses (Exhibit A)A continuing resolution passed in the House faces a contentious path in the Senate, involving potential filibuster drama. Speaker Michael Johnson pledges to pass all 12 expenditure bills by July, a significant change from recent fiscal practices. Discussions highlight the challenges and necessity of reducing the deficit primarily through spending cuts in defense, social security, and Medicaid.[06:46] TSMC and Intel’s Potential Fab Deal (Page 3)The team explores Intel’s rumored deal to sell fab capacity to TSMC and major chip companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom. They analyze strategic considerations, antitrust concerns, and geopolitical implications, highlighting both companies’ massive investments in Arizona facilities and their significance for U.S. strategic interests.[21:41] AI Developments and OpenAI’s New API (Page 1)Mike reviews recent AI news, including OpenAI’s release of a new API for developers, enhancing the integration of AI into products. Apple’s delays in AI advancements contrast starkly with competitors actively pursuing AI-focused smartphones, including ventures by Perplexity and Johnny Ive in partnership with Sam Altman.[24:46] Healthcare Innovations: Roche and Gene Sequencing (Page 15)Jason details Roche’s recent breakthrough in gene sequencing technology, potentially lowering costs significantly compared to current methods like those from Illumina and PAC Bio. Roche’s innovation promises affordable sequencing with improved accuracy, signaling broader adoption and accessibility for genomic sequencing technologies.[29:47] RFK Jr.’s FDA Reforms and Healthcare Updates (Page 15, 19, 20)The episode covers Robert F. Kennedy Jr.‘s reforms within the FDA, aimed at increasing scrutiny on non-natural substances in food. Vertex Pharmaceuticals also receives attention, with recent authorization to sell its new medicine, supported by OptumRx’s involvement in hospital distribution plans.The episode wraps up with brief insights on Tesla’s reduced reliance on the Memphis GPU cluster in favor of its own Cortex One data center.Join us next week for more detailed discussions on Tesla’s strategies and other major industry movements. Don’t forget to subscribe and download the memo to stay informed!INTC 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ AVGO 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ MRNA 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ BNTX 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00] IntroThe episode kicks off with Hunt teasing Tesla’s potential for a step change via autonomous driving, followed by Mike’s welcome to the Telltales podcast and an overview of the Cash Flow Memo. Key points include the focus on energy, tech, and healthcare, with a disclaimer about the informational nature of the discussion. The hosts set the stage for a 30-minute deep dive into macroeconomic trends and investment ideas.[00:41] World Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt analyzes the 2025 oil supply and demand outlook, noting potential shifts due to U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran, alongside OPEC+’s planned production increase of 130-140,000 barrels per day starting April 1. He highlights a weak demand picture—up only 1 million barrels daily from 2024 to 2025—and speculates that lifting sanctions could lead to a surplus and lower oil prices. Key stat: Russia and Iran are curtailed by 600,000 and 800,000 barrels, respectively, in current estimates. The discussion underscores the speculative nature of these forecasts, with a likely hold on current projections for another week.[03:01] US Gas Demand and Supply (Exhibit B)The focus shifts to U.S. natural gas, where cold weather has boosted demand, but dry gas production is already at 105.5 Bcf/day, potentially rising further. Hunt notes LNG feed gas increases might offset this, with futures prices at $4 for 2025 and 2026—up from $2.40 in 2024—though he suggests $3.50 as a more realistic estimate. This segment highlights the delicate balance between production and price stability in the gas market.[03:41] US Government Revenues and Expenses (Exhibit A)Hunt discusses the fiscal situation, referencing the President’s address on waste and fraud but skepticism about spending cuts. He flags March 12 as a deadline for a continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown, doubting bipartisan support in the House. Key insight: Balancing the budget may hinge on Republican unity, a daunting task given political divides. Jason adds a critical view of the address’s professionalism.[04:47] Step Changes: Defining the Concept (Page 3)The hosts introduce “step changes”—dramatic revenue leaps like NVIDIA’s from under $10 billion to $130 billion annually—positioning it as a key investment strategy amid macro uncertainty. Hunt questions whether NVIDIA’s $3 trillion valuation can double again (unlikely), and explores Intel as a long-shot candidate. The discussion emphasizes finding companies with exponential growth potential in a volatile market.[06:48] Step Changes: NVIDIA 2016-2025 (Page 3)Mike reflects on NVIDIA’s rise from $6 billion to $130 billion in revenue, attributing it to early GPU adoption beyond gaming. He stresses buying at a fair price and holding long-term as a winning strategy, cautioning against overvaluation risks. This segment underscores the importance of timing and valuation in capturing step-change opportunities.[07:41] Step Changes: Level 5 Self-Driving (Page 1)Hunt pivots to Tesla, suggesting autonomous driving—not car sales—could drive a step change, despite softening demand in Germany and China. Jason and Mike explore the revenue potential of retrofitting 5-6 million Teslas for ride-sharing, estimating cash flows if costs drop to 25 cents per mile, though regulatory hurdles loom large. Key quote: “It’s inevitable that people are going to be using self-driving cars” (Mike). The trio debates whether Tesla could match Uber’s $40 billion revenue run rate with higher margins, projecting $20 billion in free cash flow by 2028.[19:03] Step Changes: Netflix, Meta, & Spotify (Page 4)Hunt previews next week’s focus on Netflix’s $9 billion free cash flow leap, Spotify’s $1.5 billion shift via AI-generated content, and Meta’s recovery from a $150 stock low to nearly $700. Mike explains Netflix’s post-COVID cash flow surge from scaled-back spending, while Jason notes Spotify’s royalty challenges. This segment teases broader step-change examples beyond tech hardware.[23:17] Oakcliff Update Dawn from Oakcliff Sailing provides a brief interlude, updating listeners on a foiling camp in Pensacola and an April 5 art show, encouraging newsletter sign-ups at oakcliffsailing.org. This break offers a community touchpoint amid the investment focus.[24:27] DOGE & Medicare/Medicaid (Exhibit A)Jason tackles healthcare, citing a proposed $880 billion Medicaid cut over 10 years and $210 billion in unnecessary care plus $100 billion in fraud annually (2019 data). He suggests modern tech, like banking’s fraud detection, could offset cuts without slashing services, spotlighting Marty McCary’s FDA nomination focus on waste. Hunt ties this to Exhibit A, noting healthcare’s $1.8 trillion share of federal spending demands reform.[28:48] Can DOGE Balance the Budget? (Exhibit A)Hunt questions whether the DOGE initiative can close the $2 trillion deficit gap (revenue $5 trillion, spending $7 trillion), with debt at $37 trillion exceeding GNP ($30 trillion). Defense ($900 bill

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Donald Trump's 2024 election victory on energy, healthcare, technology, and the broader economy. They analyze key exhibits, dive into company-specific news, and explore the potential impacts of policy changes.[00:00:59] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects a Trump administration deal with China to tighten the oil market surplus in 2025 by phasing out Iranian barrels. Despite predictions of peak oil demand, the IEA still forecasts an increase in 2025 versus 2024.[00:03:06] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Hunt anticipates better natural gas demand under Trump, with power demand outperforming LNG. He believes the administration will lift the hold on new LNG projects and combined cycle plants, leading to stronger demand growth. However, a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine could lead to Europe resuming Russian gas imports, potentially impacting US LNG prices.[00:06:02] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt emphasizes the need to reduce the deficit in "all other" expenses and hopes Elon Musk will help save $200-300 billion. The goal is to get the deficit trend moving downward and lower the debt-to-GNP ratio through economic growth. The team also discusses Trump's proposed "golden visa" program as a potential revenue generator.[00:09:35] Healthcare Updates (Pages 15-16) Jason discusses Celsius's acquisition of Alani Nu, a move to buy growth in the energy drink market. Lantheus reports strong earnings, with the market recognizing the value of their diagnostics business. The team also touches on Vertex's non-opioid painkillers and their commercialization efforts.[00:12:04] Executive Order on Healthcare Price Transparency The team analyzes Trump's executive order mandating hospital price transparency, which aims to enforce the previously unenforced order from his first term. Jason explains the importance of price transparency in healthcare and the potential savings it could generate in the Medicare and Medicaid lines of the federal budget.[00:19:25] Will AI be 'Winner take all?' Discussing Microsoft CEO's statement that large language models will not be winner-take-all, Jason and Mike argue that the underlying data, not the models themselves, will be the key differentiator. They also discuss the importance of inferencing infrastructure and the potential for NVIDIA to benefit from the AI arms race.[00:25:26] Chip Export Controls (Page 3) The team discusses the potential impact of chip export controls on NVIDIA and the lack of significant competition from other players in the GPU market.[00:28:22] Tesla sales drop 45% in Europe (Page 1) Mike notes Elon Musk's unpopularity in Europe due to his support of the far-right party in Germany, which has led to a significant drop in Tesla sales. However, Jason highlights Tesla's innovations in injection-molded panels, which could dramatically reduce production costs.[00:29:33] Nvidia v. Tesla (Page 1) In the final segment, the team compares the investment potential of NVIDIA and Tesla at a hypothetical price of $150 per share. They discuss the advantages of each company and their potential for sustained growth and innovation.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics related to the 2024 election outcome, providing insights and analysis on the potential impacts across various industries. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions on energy, healthcare, technology, and the economy in future episodes.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week the Telltales Podcast dives into critical cash flow insights, spanning volatile oil and gas markets, U.S. government spending debates, and the disruptive potential of Tesla, NVIDIA, and healthcare innovators. Hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence unpack the numbers and trends shaping investment opportunities as of February 19, 2025.[00:00] Intro The episode kicks off with a teaser about autonomous driving’s future in the U.S., followed by Mike Nicoletti’s welcome to Telltales, introducing the Cash Flow Memo available at telltales.us. The hosts set the stage for a 30-minute deep dive into energy, technology, and healthcare, urging listeners to download the memo and follow along.[00:50] World Oil Supply / Demand (Memo Exhibit C)Hunt analyzes a modified Exhibit C, factoring in sanctions on Russia and Iran that erase the oil surplus, dropping supply to 1.2 million barrels daily under Saudi Arabia’s 9.5 million barrel production cap. He highlights the volatility, noting oil prices could swing from $50 to $80 depending on sanction outcomes, with skepticism about Saudi’s claimed 12 million barrel capacity. This segment underscores how geopolitical shifts could drastically impact energy investments.[03:03] US Gas Demand / Supply (Memo Exhibit B)Focusing on natural gas, Hunt notes U.S. dry gas production hitting 105 billion cubic feet (Bcf) daily, with slight increases in Canadian imports and residential demand (up to 25.5 Bcf due to a harsh winter). LNG feed gas holds steady at 14.5 Bcf, while power generation demand has surged 7 Bcf over five years, hinting at future growth tied to data centers. The discussion forecasts potential shifts in gas demand patterns as technology evolves.[04:18] US Gov’t Revenues and Expenses (Memo Exhibit A)Hunt explores proposed spending cuts of $600 billion to $1 trillion, targeting areas like Medicaid and defense (running at $900 billion), while revenues are expected to exceed $5 trillion in 2025. Jason and Mike discuss early Doge-inspired cuts, like terminating probationary federal employees, rolling government size back to 2023 levels. The Treasury Secretary’s focus on the 10-year rate as a fiscal target adds a fresh perspective to monetary policy debates.[07:59] The Most Interesting Companies, Regardless of Valuation (Memo Pages 1-3)Tesla and NVIDIA emerge as the episode’s standout companies, with Hunt praising Tesla’s $36 billion cash pile and $2 billion free cash flow, despite its trillion-dollar valuation, and NVIDIA’s $70 billion free cash flow at a $3 trillion market cap. Mike and Jason project NVIDIA’s revenue could hit $180-$200 billion in 2025, driven by hyperscaler CapEx, while Tesla’s autonomous driving potential sparks debate about its growth trajectory. This segment highlights their disruptive potential, valuation aside.[15:32] Meta’s 30k Miles of Fiber (Memo Page 4)Meta’s plan to lay 30,000 miles of fiber, skirting global hotspots like the South China Sea, signals massive data center expansion, potentially in India, boosting NVIDIA’s GPU demand. Mike and Jason see this as a backbone upgrade to ease infrastructure bottlenecks, reinforcing AI and tech growth trends. The discussion ties Meta’s move to broader tech investment themes.[17:41] Tesla and the Impact of FSD / Robotaxi (Memo Page 1)Jason weighs Tesla’s push into utility-scale batteries (e.g., 200 MW in Memphis) and full self-driving (FSD), questioning battery fire risks but seeing FSD as a high-margin game-changer, possibly via subscriptions. Mike highlights Tesla’s scale economies, offering Model 3 leases at $250/month while banking on software margins. The hosts debate if Tesla could hit $10 billion in free cash flow by 2028, with FSD as a key driver.[23:55] What % of Cars Sold in US Will Have Autonomous Driving Ability? (Memo Page 1)Hunt poses a provocative question: by 2027-28, what share of the 15 million U.S. cars sold annually will feature autonomous driving? Mike predicts it’ll hinge on Tesla’s output, suggesting it could become “table stakes” as insurance costs favor self-driving cars, while Jason cautions that legacy automakers like GM may lag into the 2030s due to slow production cycles. The segment explores a potential winner-take-all market.[26:39] Healthcare Updates: RFK Jr Impact! Jason and Mike laud the “Make America Healthy Again” executive order, which probes why Americans are sicker—citing 18% of 18-year-olds with fatty liver disease—linking it to food supply issues like microplastics and ultra-processed foods. They highlight its focus on SSRIs’ rise in youth and long-term side effects, alongside emerging alternatives like ketamine-based treatments from Janssen and Axsome. The discussion frames this as a root-cause approach to healthcare costs, with data-sharing reforms on the horizon.Tune in next week for more on Tesla, NVIDIA, and healthcare innovations—download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us to stay ahead of the curve!This podcast and the information

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the potential impacts of the Trump administration on energy markets, media consumption, and the healthcare industry. They analyze key exhibits, dive into company-specific news, and share insights on the shifting landscape of these sectors.[00:00:33] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Hunt expects Iran's oil production to decrease under the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" policy. He also discusses the challenges in reaching a deal between Ukraine and Russia, which could impact Russia's oil exports. The tightening of the oil market could lead to a wider price range, with the potential for oil to trade up to $80 or down to $50.[00:04:55] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply Hunt highlights the increasing demand for natural gas in power generation, outpacing the growth in LNG exports. However, he cautions that the surplus in natural gas supply could keep prices low, especially if production from the Permian Basin continues to grow. He advises investors to be cautious when considering upstream gas companies.[00:07:36] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses Hunt discusses the challenges the Trump administration faces in reaching a budget deal by March 14th and managing the debt ceiling. He suggests that investors consider holding cash reserves through this period due to the potential for capital market disruptions.[00:10:02] Where do you get your News? The Changing Digital Landscape. The team explores the shifting landscape of news consumption, with digital platforms like Twitter and X becoming increasingly important sources of information. They discuss the challenges traditional media faces in maintaining credibility and the role of advertising in shaping content. The conversation also touches on the importance of fact-checking and consuming content from diverse perspectives to avoid echo chambers.[00:15:32] Streaming Wars: Netflix, Disney, and the Future of Entertainment (Page 4) The team analyzes the strategies of Netflix and Disney in the streaming market, discussing the potential for Disney to expand its offerings to include sports and news. They also examine Netflix's success in generating free cash flow and its shift towards emphasizing revenue growth and profitability. The conversation explores the future of content delivery and the importance of matching content with the most effective delivery mechanisms.[00:22:42] Healthcare News: Vertex, Pfizer, and Lantheus (Page 15) Jason provides an update on Vertex Pharmaceuticals, highlighting its strong sales growth and the potential for new approvals to drive further expansion. The team also discusses the leaked data from a Pfizer prostate cancer treatment study and its implications for Lantheus, a company that provides imaging diagnostics for monitoring disease progression and treatment effectiveness.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, offering valuable insights into the complex dynamics shaping the energy, media, and healthcare industries. As investors navigate these shifting tides, staying informed and adaptable will be key to making sound investment decisions.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, Hunt and Jason discuss the implications of a potential second Trump term on the energy sector, Elon Musk's efforts to reduce federal spending, and the recent approval of Vertex's non-opioid pain drug. They also delve into the latest earnings reports from major tech companies and the advancements in autonomous driving technology.[00:00:46] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt anticipates that Trump's policies, including sanctions on Iran and Russia, could tighten the global oil market surplus in 2025. He expects Iranian exports to drop to zero and Russian production to decline by 1 million barrels per day.[00:02:18] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Hunt discusses the positive impact of weather on natural gas demand and the potential for increased production. He highlights the steady growth in power demand and the expansion of LNG exports, which could be further supported by a Trump administration.[00:03:38] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt and Jason analyze Elon Musk's efforts to reduce federal spending, targeting cuts in Medicaid and other discretionary programs. They believe Musk's team could potentially trim $500 billion from the 2025 budget, although challenges and opposition are expected.[00:07:11] Apple Earnings (Page 1) Jason notes that Apple experienced a 5% decline in iPhone sales during the holiday season, falling short of expectations for a super cycle. He attributes the slowdown to weak demand in China and suggests that Apple may need to integrate AI features to remain competitive.[00:09:20] Tesla Earnings (Page 1) Despite a disappointing quarter, Jason points out that Tesla's stock rallied on Elon Musk's optimism about the rollout of robo-taxis. He believes investors are focusing on the company's future potential rather than short-term setbacks.[00:10:08] How does FSD handle surprises like a kid running into the street after a ball? (Page 1) Jason provides a detailed explanation of how Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system learns from real-world driving data to handle unexpected situations, such as a child running into the street. He contrasts Tesla's approach with Waymo's more expensive and sensor-heavy system.[00:14:19] Insurance on cars with FSD (Page 1) Hunt and Jason discuss the potential for Tesla to offer insurance for FSD-equipped vehicles, either independently or through partnerships. They believe that Tesla aims to demonstrate the safety benefits of FSD and offer competitive premiums.[00:15:24] FSD Regulation (Page 1) The hosts explore the regulatory landscape for autonomous driving, noting that Waymo has obtained approval in several cities. They speculate that Elon Musk may leverage his connections to push for federal-level regulations to streamline the process.[00:16:19] Tesla FSD vs Waymo (Page 1) Jason compares the cost and technological differences between Tesla's FSD and Waymo's autonomous driving systems. He highlights Tesla's camera-based approach as more cost-effective than Waymo's expensive sensor suite, which could impact the profitability of robo-taxi services.[00:18:36] Will Tesla partner with Uber & Lift, or build out their own Rideshare Network for Robotaxi? (Page 20, 1) Hunt and Jason consider whether Tesla will collaborate with ride-hailing companies like Uber and Lyft or develop its own network for robo-taxis. They note that Uber is currently partnering with Waymo and may be open to working with other autonomous vehicle makers.[00:19:28] Vertex Pain Drug Approval & Process Power (Page 15) Jason discusses the recent FDA approval of Vertex's non-opioid pain drug, Jernavix, and its potential to address the opioid crisis. He highlights the significant economic impact of opioid addiction and suggests that subsidizing Jernavix could yield substantial societal benefits.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, from the potential impacts of a second Trump term on the energy sector to the latest advancements in autonomous driving technology and the approval of a groundbreaking non-opioid pain medication. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions on the trends shaping the future of energy, technology, and healthcare.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the potential impacts of the Trump administration's energy policies, the game-changing AI innovations from China's DeepSeek, and key updates from healthcare companies like Vertex, Lantheus, and BioNTech.[00:00:52] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt believes a deal with Iran under the Trump administration could tighten the oil market surplus. He expects OPEC countries to increase production, potentially leading to lower oil prices and a flattening of U.S. oil production growth.[00:04:44] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY The cold weather has reduced the natural gas storage surplus, but Hunt warns that production could increase, especially from the Permian Basin. He anticipates power demand for natural gas to continue growing but cautions that prices may not sustain at current levels.[00:07:53] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt discusses the challenges of raising the debt ceiling without spending cuts. He speculates that the Trump administration might withhold funds from programs like Medicaid to force a resolution, potentially causing disruptions in the capital markets.[00:10:03] DeepSeek and demand for Nvidia GPUs Jason and Mike analyze the implications of DeepSeek's AI advancements, which achieved impressive results with fewer resources. They discuss the potential impact on Nvidia's GPU demand, the role of reasoning models, and the incentives driving different companies' approaches to AI development.[00:29:30] OAKCLIFF UPDATE In this sponsored segment, Mike provides an update on the work being done at Oakcliff Sailing, including preparing match boats and repairing sails.[00:30:17] Lantheus Acquisition Jason discusses Lantheus' recent acquisition of a radiopharmacy in New Jersey, likely aimed at expanding their manufacturing capabilities and presence in Europe.Stay tuned for more insights on energy, AI, and healthcare as the Telltales team continues to navigate the ever-changing landscape of investments and technology.NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ BNTX 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ MRNA 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this special edition of the Telltales podcast, the team continues "Cashflow Pick'em" from week 2502, selecting companies on memo pages 14-20 that they believe will grow their cashflow the most in the coming year. They also discuss the impact of Trump's first days in office on various industries and the competitive landscape in artificial intelligence.[00:01:02] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects Russian and Iranian oil production to decrease in the coming months due to shipping restrictions and sanctions, leading to a tighter oil market and improved prices. However, a deal in Ukraine or lifted sanctions on Iran could cause prices to drop significantly.[00:03:51] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Natural gas has benefited from cold weather, but supply remains a concern. Hunt emphasizes the importance of dry gas production increasing once temperatures warm up.[00:04:18] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt anticipates a significant bill that will include expense reductions and the elimination of various tax credits to keep the Freedom Caucus on board. He believes this will be a major focus in the coming months.[00:05:53] Cashflow Pick'em 2025 Part 2 (Pages 14-20) The Telltales team and AI models make their picks for companies they believe will have the biggest increase in free cash flow over the next 12 months. They discuss their reasoning and analyze the potential of each company.[00:22:42] Trump Executive Order Impacts The team examines the impact of Trump's executive orders and press conference on the companies they follow. Hunt believes natural gas will benefit from increased LNG terminals and the need for reliable power in the near term. Mike and Jason discuss the competitive landscape in AI, focusing on OpenAI's position and the challenges they face.Stay tuned for more insights and analysis from the Telltales team as they navigate the ever-changing landscape of energy, healthcare, and technology.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00:50] World Oil Supply and DemandHunt shares insights on Russia’s oil production outlook amid sanctions.Potential impact of geopolitical developments on global oil prices.Why WTI prices might swing between the mid-50s to high-70s.[00:03:03] US Gas Demand/SupplyOverview of cold-weather impacts and freeze-offs on natural gas production.Discussion on LNG export growth.[00:04:07] Macro UpdateGovernment spending, potential trillion-dollar cuts, and debt-limit strategies.How a lower U.S. deficit could stabilize long-term interest rates.[00:07:09] JP Morgan Healthcare Conference UpdateNotable deals.Discussion on RFK Jr.’s potential policy impact on pharma regulations.Highlights for companies like Moderna, Eli Lilly, Vertex, Lantheus, and Harrow.[00:13:02] Turning GPUs into CashflowHunt and Mike on the hyperscalers’ (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Apple) AI investments.How these companies might generate returns from AI, cloud services, and large-scale GPU deployments.[00:19:29] Who Wins Among the Hyperscalers?Jason’s take: Microsoft’s enterprise edge vs. Meta’s massive user base.[00:22:01] Apple’s Software ChallengeWhy Siri lags behind other AI assistants.Could a full-fledged AI agent in iOS spark the next iPhone supercycle?[00:23:48] Salesforce vs. MicrosoftMarc Benioff’s vision of beating Microsoft in AI-driven CRM.Are enterprises ready to switch from Microsoft Dynamics to Salesforce?[00:26:09] Oakcliff Sailing UpdateSpecial message from Dawn Riley about collaboration and support for sailing athletes and organizations across the U.S.[00:31:27] Don’t Bet Against Musk: Tesla, xAI, and the Future of XJason’s overview of how Tesla’s massive video data set might lead to a game-changing self-driving solution.The broader societal impact if cars reach Level 5 autonomy—what happens to parking garages, urban planning, etc.?[00:34:51] Closing RemarksNVDA 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ JNJ 0.00%↑ GSK 0.00%↑ SNY 0.00%↑ MRNA 0.00%↑ LLY 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ HROW 0.00%↑ ORCL 0.00%↑ CRM 0.00%↑This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00:00]Introduction (Pages 1–13)Mike, Jason, and Hunt open the show by outlining their plan to assess which companies covered in the memo are poised for the highest percentage increase in free cashflow by 2025. They highlight that overall cashflow growth—not just revenue—drives long-term valuations, and they set up the structure for this year’s “Cashflow Pick’em” challenge.[00:00:48]Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Hunt reviews the current oil market landscape, pointing out that cold weather in the Northeast is boosting heating oil and natural gas businesses. He emphasizes strong global demand estimates but notes supply-side uncertainty, especially regarding Iranian sanctions and potential U.S. foreign-policy shifts. The segment ends with advice to hold existing oil positions but remain cautious about starting new ones.[00:02:59]Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply Hunt discusses the challenges in natural gas demand forecasts, especially with liquefied natural gas (LNG) project delays and power-generation trends. He notes that power demand for gas has grown steadily, even outpacing LNG growth in the short term. While the long-term LNG story remains attractive, near-term pricing could be volatile.[00:04:44]Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses Hunt walks through the latest update on U.S. government finances, highlighting potential budget negotiations tied to the debt ceiling. He predicts at least 500 billion in spending cuts emerging from reconciliation legislation, possibly touching defense and healthcare programs. The hosts discuss how this may create market volatility, suggesting investors keep some cash on the sidelines.[00:07:50]Cashflow Pick’em 2025 (Pages 1–13)Mike, Jason, and Hunt begin their page-by-page look at which companies could see the highest percentage growth in free cashflow. They compare their picks with AI models’ predictions from Grok and Perplexity. This segment covers tech (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, TSLA), software (CRM, NOW, SNOW, ORCL, AVGO), semiconductors (NVDA, AMD, INTC, TSM, ASML), entertainment (NFLX, DIS, META, SPOT), communications (CHTR, CMCSA, T, VZ, TMUS), payments (MA, V, PYPL), retail (WMT, TGT, LOW, HD, KMX), oil majors (XOM, CVX, COP, OXY, LNG), midstream (KMI, EPD, ET, WES, OKE), E&P (EOG, MGY, PR, FANG), natural gas (AR, EQT, CHK, AM), and banks (JPM, MS, GS, IBKR). They wrap with plans to continue the remaining pages in the next episode.[00:23:50]Special Break – Oakcliff Sailing A short break features Dawn Riley discussing Oakcliff Sailing’s upcoming tour. She explains how the organization aims to collaborate with sailing communities across the nation, sharing best practices for training, funding, and event hosting.[00:29:07]Healthcare Updates Jason updates listeners on Vertex’s recent clinical trial results, clarifying that setbacks in nerve pain do not necessarily affect its acute pain applications. They also touch on Lantheus, Harrow, and the ongoing debate over GLP-1 supply, compounding pharmacies, and patents. Finally, they consider whether new policy under RFK Jr. might promote broader transparency in healthcare data.[00:33:30]Can $200B be Trimmed from Medicare? (Exhibit A & Healthcare)Mike and Jason debate the feasibility of cutting significant costs from Medicare and Medicaid without reducing vital healthcare supply. They note that administrative overhead and inefficiencies might be the first area to tackle. The conversation tees up more detailed policy discussions for the next episode.[00:36:01]ConclusionHunt signs off by reminding listeners that cold weather can be a silver lining for those invested in fossil fuel companies. Mike underscores the importance of doing your own research, and the hosts promise deeper dives in upcoming episodes. Don’t forget to subscribe, download the memo, and join them next week for more pages and more picks!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESEpisode OverviewIn this special edition of the Cash Flow Memo, hosts Mike, Jason, and Hunt look back on their “12 Surprises” from last year—unconventional predictions with high potential impact—and discuss which came true and which missed the mark. Then they unveil fresh predictions for 2025, ranging from nuclear fusion milestones and AI-driven health breakthroughs to geopolitical events and government spending cuts.Revisiting the 12 Surprises of Last Year[00:01:01] 1. Saudi Arabia Shifts to Market Share ProductionHunt recaps his 2024 expectation that Saudi Arabia would ramp up production to maintain/expand market share.Outcome: The Saudis did not pivot to a “market share” strategy. Instead, OPEC+ postponed some production increases, partly due to uncertainties around Iran sanctions.2025 Outlook: Market-share-driven strategy remains unlikely unless geopolitical circumstances change (e.g., renewed Iran sanctions).[00:02:09] 2. Biden Administration Blocks New LNG ProjectsHunt notes the prediction that the current administration would impede further Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) development.Outcome: Yes, the Biden administration blocked the development of new LNG export projects.Future Scenario: A potential Trump administration could remove constraints.[00:02:20] 3. The Federal Reserve Comes to the RescuePrediction was for a major market disruption prompting an urgent Fed intervention.Outcome: No major crisis materialized in 2024 requiring such a rescue.[00:02:30] 4. A Treasury Bond Auction FailsHunt speculated that a failed auction might occur if interest rates soared.Outcome: No actual failure took place, but the 10-year yield continued climbing.2025 Outlook: Hunt expects 10-year yields to remain high (potentially in the 5.10–5.20% range), even if the Fed cuts rates.[00:03:59] 5. Apple Blocked from Paying Google for Default SearchHunt & Mike discuss how the DOJ’s antitrust case could end Google’s multi-billion-dollar deal with Apple.Outcome: Not yet resolved, but constraints on Google-Apple payments appear more plausible now.Jason suggests Microsoft focuses on AI-powered (e.g., ChatGPT-like) search instead of paying for default status.Mike’s Note: Apple’s revenue hit might be mitigated if a “universal” revenue-share approach replaces the exclusive deal.[00:11:00] 6. Apple Implements Edge AI ModelsJason predicted the iPhone 16 would feature on-device language models (improving Siri).Outcome: Hardware can support local AI, but software/OS-level support lags behind.2025 Outlook: Apple may open APIs for third-party developers, potentially boosting Apple’s competitive position—if done well.[00:12:57] 7. Voice Control for Tesla VehiclesJason predicted Tesla would enhance its built-in voice assistant.Outcome: Tesla released updates enabling voice commands for trunk/frunk and other controls.2025 Outlook: Further expansion likely, especially if Tesla’s “steering wheel-less” robo-taxis launch.[00:13:58] 8. U.S. Implements a National Framework for Autonomous DrivingJason & Mike consider how state vs. federal oversight might evolve.Outcome: No sweeping national framework in 2024, but talk of federal mandates (especially if the administration changes) remains.Discussion also touches on regulation for emerging personal “air taxi”/drone transport.[00:15:33] 9. Tepid Uptake of AI Leading to Overbuilt Data CentersMike describes how Big Tech has poured billions into AI infrastructure.Outcome: AI usage (e.g., ChatGPT, generative AI tools) is growing, but monetization still lags behind the hype.Tech companies remain optimistic about future revenue offsetting current massive spending.[00:16:15] 10. A Drug Designed with AI Gets FDA ApprovalHunt & Jason note that AI is prevalent in drug discovery (protein folding, molecular design).Outcome: While many drugs are in the pipeline, no major “AI-only” drug with a clear direct link has been approved yet.The line is blurry because most modern R&D integrates AI at some level.[00:17:41] 11. Generative AI Replaces InfluencersHunt questions whether top influencers (e.g., Elon Musk) could be supplanted by AI.Outcome: Real-world, high-profile personalities remain; however, AI “virtual influencers” do exist.Mike jokes that high-volume posting might be partially AI-assisted.[00:18:45] 12. FDA Expands In Silico ExperimentsMike explains “in silico” refers to computational drug testing.Outcome: No major regulatory breakthroughs in 2024; still potential for partial replacement of animal models in the future.New 2025 Surprises[00:21:05] 1. A Private Company Achieves Nuclear Fusion IgnitionJason anticipates a private firm matching Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s feat of net energy gain from fusion.Commercial viability remains far out, but venture-backed efforts might surpass prior milestones.[00:23:20] 2. FDA Bans Corn Syrup in Food ProductsJason predicts that, under an RFK Jr.-led FDA, a ban on high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) could disrupt the U.S. food supply chain.Such bans exist in

Welcome to our 2024 Cashflow Pick'em Results Epsode, where Hunt, Mike, and Jason recap the cashflow growth in each company in the memo. Download the memo at Telltales.us and check out episode 2401 where we made our initial picks, here: 2024 Cashflow Pick'emToday we will explore who came out on top in free cash flow growth and examine the forces shaping energy, technology, and healthcare in 2024.[00:01:03] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects Iranian oil exports to decline in early 2025 even without Trump reimposing sanctions. He sees the oil market surplus capacity tightening from 4.4 million barrels per day in 2024 to 3 million in 2025.[00:02:16] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Cold January weather has boosted near-term natural gas prices, but 2025 and 2026 prices remain flat. Power demand growth continues to outpace LNG.[00:02:59] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Elon Musk's influence and 200M Twitter followers are seen as a positive for deficit reduction efforts. Hunt is encouraged by the direction, even if cutting $1T in spending is a tall order.[00:03:53] 2024 Cashflow Pickem Results (Pages 20-1) Mike and Hunt review their cashflow growth predictions from the prior year's episode across all 20 pages (80 companies) of the memo. Mike wins with 11 points!The Telltales hosts scrutinize their 2024 cashflow picks, gleaning insights for their upcoming 2025 predictions. They also touch on the potential market implications of a second Trump term, particularly in energy and federal spending.Oakcliff Sailing Update & RequestsThis week on the Oakcliff segment, Dawn discussed the awesome accomplishments of Oakcliff Sailing this year. She suggests 3 ways you can support Oakcliff in 2025, they are…1. Join and/or host the Oakcliff Winter Tour - This is a two session event gathering our graduates and collaborators to entertain and educate in an effort to set up American Sailing for success into 2028 and beyond. Click here for more info.2. Train at Oakcliff in ‘25 - If you are into sailing haven’t yet trained at Oakcliff, you should! If you aren’t into sailing then you need to try it. Oakcliff has pathways for sailors of all levels. Check out www.oakcliffsailing.org for more.3. Make a donation to Oakcliff Sailing - It’s that time of year. Break out your checkbook and support Oakcliff! Donate Now!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

REQUEST!!This week on the Oakcliff segment, Dawn discussed the awesome accomplishments of Oakcliff Sailing this year. She suggests 3 ways you can support Oakcliff in 2025, they are… Join and/or host the Oakcliff Winter Tour - This is a two session event gathering our graduates and collaborators to entertain and educate in an effort to set up American Sailing for success into 2028 and beyond. Click here for more info.Train at Oakcliff in ‘25 - If you are into sailing haven’t yet trained at Oakcliff, you should! If you aren’t into sailing then you need to try it. Oakcliff has pathways for sailors of all levels. Check out www.oakcliffsailing.org for more.Make a donation to Oakcliff Sailing - It’s that time of year. Break out your checkbook and support Oakcliff! Donate Now!SHOWNOTESEpisode Introduction:In this episode, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence analyze the intersection of global energy markets, technology advancements—particularly in AI, autonomous vehicles, and robotics—and emerging trends in healthcare and finance. They reference data from their “Cash Flow Memo” to provide insights into future investment opportunities, policy implications, and the trajectory of innovation in various sectors.[00:00] Introduction (General)Mike welcomes listeners to Telltales and introduces the “Cash Flow Memo,” which dives into insights on energy, technology, and healthcare. The team sets the stage for a 30-minute exploration into market drivers, policy shifts, and future forecasts in these industries.[01:00] World Oil Supply & Demand (Exhibit C)The conversation centers on Iran’s oil exports and U.S. policy implications under a new administration. The hosts discuss China’s flat energy demand growth and the critical role supply-side adjustments play in maintaining stable oil prices. They explore the complexity of surplus management and its impact on Brent price stability.[04:00] U.S. Gas Demand & Supply (Exhibit B)The hosts analyze the natural gas market, noting seasonal demand fluctuations and the significance of capping dry gas production. They discuss the role of LNG exports, the influence of shifting power generation (including AI-driven demand), and the impact of surplus on price stability. Attention is given to how these factors interact with geopolitical events and long-term production targets.[06:00] U.S. Government Revenues & Expenses (Exhibit A)They review the U.S. fiscal picture, focusing on the two trillion-dollar deficit and the challenges of reducing spending by a trillion dollars. The conversation covers potential effects on 10-year rates, Fed funds rates, and overall economic stability. The hosts consider Elon Musk’s proposed budget cuts and regulatory reforms as aspirational steps toward balanced growth.[09:00] Consumer & Technology Stocks: Uber, DoorDash, Airbnb, Five Below, Harrow (Page 20)The discussion shifts to consumer and tech-related stocks. They consider the potential turnaround at Five Below, Airbnb’s struggles to maintain free cash flow growth, and Harrow’s supply-demand challenges. The team also contemplates how ride-hailing and delivery companies might adapt to autonomous transportation and AI-driven efficiencies.[11:00] Uber ($UBER) & the Advent of RoboTaxis (Pages 20 & 1)Focusing on Uber’s future, the hosts debate whether RoboTaxi services will reshape ride-hailing. They highlight partnerships like Uber-Waymo and consider Tesla’s Full Self-Driving technology. The conversation centers on who might control the “choke point” of aggregation and the margin opportunities that come from scaling autonomous fleets.[13:00] DoorDash ($DASH) & Humanoid Robots (Page 20)They explore the complexities of last-mile delivery and envision humanoid robots bridging the gap from the curb to the customer’s door. The hosts cite Tesla and other startups innovating in robotics, noting how AI-driven solutions can handle diverse delivery scenarios. This suggests a future where robots enhance logistics and efficiency in consumer delivery.[16:00] Tesla Valuation vs. Uber (Pages 1 & 20)The team evaluates Tesla and Uber in the context of autonomous driving’s long-term value creation. They weigh Tesla’s high valuation—backed by its leading tech—against Uber’s current multiples and potential platform advantages. This segment challenges listeners to consider both upside and risk in a rapidly evolving market.[17:00] Commodities & The China Effect (Page 18: FCX / ALB / CF / NEE)Focusing on commodity companies, they note that China’s maturing economy impacts copper, lithium, and ammonia demand. While China grows at 5%, the nature of its growth (services over heavy industry) may curb traditional resource demand. This leads to cautious optimism and moderated expectations for commodity-linked investments.[18:00] Logistics & Retail (Page 17: FDX / UPS / NKE / COST)The conversation turns to FedEx, UPS, Nike, and Costco. They consider Amazon’s logistics advancements as a significant competitive factor and specul

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Elon Musk's massive AI training cluster on the semiconductor industry, the future of self-driving cars, and the shifting landscape of chip manufacturing. They also explore the potential impact of Trump's FDA pick on healthcare costs and the U.S. budget.[00:06:27] Limits to GPU Scaling (Page 1) Jason and Mike discuss the limitations of scaling GPU clusters for AI training, with Elon Musk's plans to expand Tesla's cluster from 100,000 to 1 million GPUs. They explore the challenges of power consumption, data center capacity, and the potential solutions, such as linking data centers together.[00:11:21] TSMC Arizona Yield Comparison (Page 3) The team examines the success of TSMC's Arizona fab, which is producing 3nm chips with better yields than its Taiwan counterpart. They discuss the implications for U.S. participation in the semiconductor industry and the potential for TSMC to become a monopoly in leading-edge chip production.[00:17:00] Potential Suitors for Intel (Page 3) With Jeff Bezos back at Amazon, the team speculates on whether he or Elon Musk could be suitable candidates to turn around Intel's struggling foundry business. They discuss the challenges and opportunities of such an acquisition and its potential impact on the semiconductor industry.[00:19:00] Neural Networks for Full Self Driving Jason explains how Tesla's approach to autonomous driving differs from other companies, using neural networks trained on vast amounts of video data rather than detailed street maps. The team discusses the implications of this approach, including the potential for licensing the technology to other automakers.[00:25:25] Vertex's Manufacturing Partnership and Sickle Cell Treatment (Page 15) Jason shares news about Vertex's partnership with Saudi Arabia to develop a gene therapy production facility, targeting the country's high prevalence of sickle cell disease. The team also touches on the lack of updates regarding Vertex's pain medicine and diabetes treatment.[00:27:27] Trump's FDA Pick and Healthcare Price Transparency (Page 20 and Exhibit A) The team discusses the nomination of Marty McCary, a Harrow board member, to head the FDA. They explore his ideas for reducing healthcare costs through price transparency and the potential impact on the U.S. budget, given that healthcare accounts for a significant portion of government spending.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, from the cutting-edge developments in AI and self-driving cars to the shifting landscape of semiconductor manufacturing and the potential for healthcare reform under the new administration. Stay tuned for more insights and analysis on the industries shaping our future.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the challenges surrounding AI hallucination, the potential for healthcare reform under a new administration, and the outlook for the energy sector. They explore the legal and ethical implications of generative AI models, examine potential solutions to tackle healthcare costs, and analyze the effects of geopolitics and policy changes on oil and natural gas.[00:01:01] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects Iranian oil exports to decrease by half a million barrels per day in 2025 compared to Iran's own forecast. He notes that Chinese refiners are already taking less Iranian oil in anticipation of the new administration. However, if Iran agrees to give up uranium enrichment in exchange for lifting sanctions, oil surplus could increase.[00:02:58] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Hunt discusses the impact of cold weather on natural gas production and demand. He highlights the importance of LNG feed gas and power demand growth in keeping the storage change down and maintaining a year-round price of around $3.40.[00:04:08] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES Hunt examines the potential for spending cuts under the new administration, focusing on defense, "all other" expenses, and healthcare. He emphasizes the need to find savings in order to reduce the deficit and bring down the debt-to-GNP ratio.[00:06:01] Healthcare & D.O.G.E Jason and Mike discuss the potential vulnerabilities of healthcare companies under a new administration focused on cost reduction. They explore the challenges of implementing a single-payer system and the trade-offs involved in providing universal healthcare.[00:16:00] How Big Tech Deals with AI Hallucination The team delves into the issue of AI hallucination and the role of guardrails in managing the output of language models. They discuss the challenges of introducing biases during the reinforcement learning process and the potential need for regulation.[00:25:56] Section 230 and Content Moderation Hunt raises the question of whether websites should be held responsible for the content generated by AI models. Mike and Jason discuss the original intent of Section 230 and the challenges of content moderation in the era of generative AI.Get the latest memo at www.telltales.usHROW 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ UNH 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Download the memo at www.telltales.usSHOWNOTESJoin Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence on Telltales as they delve into the latest financial insights across the energy, technology, and healthcare sectors. This episode covers topics from global oil supply dynamics to the AI strategies of tech giants like NVIDIA and Apple.[00:00:34] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt discusses the current status of the global oil supply and demand, noting uncertainty regarding Iranian oil exports amidst geopolitical tensions. He suggests that with potential policy changes, oil prices may remain elevated due to efforts to reduce Iranian oil exports.[00:01:21] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B) Hunt comments on the US natural gas market, highlighting that colder weather is influencing gas prices positively. He notes the significant increase in US gas supply from 2021 to 2024, driven largely by "superman" production, and questions whether production will exceed 105 Bcf/d in the coming year.[00:02:08] Exhibit A: US GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A) Hunt reflects on the US government's fiscal situation, emphasizing the need to address the $2 trillion overspend with expenditures nearing $7 trillion and revenues just under $5 trillion. He mentions efforts by policymakers to find significant budget reductions within government spending.[00:02:50] Page 1: AAPL / AMZN / GOOG / MSFT / TSLA (Page 1) Hunt initiates a discussion on major tech companies. On Apple, Jason notes delays in AI developments, specifically the upgraded Siri, which won't roll out until early 2026, indicating Apple is behind competitors. Mike adds potential risks from antitrust issues affecting Apple's revenue from Google.[00:05:34] Amazon's AI Investments and Future Growth (Page 1) Jason and Mike discuss Amazon's significant capital expenditure on AI chips and R&D, highlighting that Amazon is investing heavily in future technologies, particularly in Amazon Web Services (AWS). They emphasize that this positions Amazon as bullish on the future, potentially yielding strong returns.[00:07:54] Alphabet's Antitrust Challenges (Page 1) Mike examines Google's valuation in light of ongoing antitrust litigation, which may impact its advertising revenue and partnerships, such as payments to Apple. They consider whether the potential breakup could unlock value, noting that historically, companies often perform better after antitrust actions.[00:09:59] Microsoft's AI Integration and Copilot Adoption (Page 1) Jason and Mike analyze Microsoft's AI product Copilot, noting slower than expected user adoption due to underwhelming user experience. They discuss the future potential of AI agents in automating tasks within Microsoft's suite, predicting that as the technology improves, adoption will increase.[00:13:09] Tesla's Autonomous Driving and Financial Strength (Page 1) Hunt and Jason talk about Tesla's financial performance and advancements in autonomous driving. Jason mentions the positive outlook due to potential national standards for autonomous driving under the new administration and improvements in Tesla's production efficiency and gross margins.[00:16:23] Page 3: NVIDIA's Unprecedented Growth (Page 3) Hunt highlights NVIDIA's massive increase in free cash flow, raising questions about the sustainability of its growth. Jason predicts strong growth for the next three years due to high demand for AI chips and data center expansions, though he anticipates growth may plateau thereafter as AI models mature.[00:23:02] Oakcliff Sailing Update An update from Dawn at Oakcliff Sailing expresses gratitude for supporters and shares success stories of graduates who have taken the organization's mission globally. She mentions upcoming fundraising efforts and thanks the hosts for their continued support.[00:24:51] Page 4: Netflix's Live Streaming Challenges (Page 4) The hosts discuss Netflix's attempt to stream live events, noting issues during the Mike Tyson event with poor video and sound quality. Jason explains the technical challenges of scaling live streaming to 100 million viewers and anticipates improvements before Netflix streams NFL games on Christmas Day.[00:29:49] Closing Remarks Hunt wraps up the episode, thanking Mike and Jason for their contributions and wishing listeners a good Thanksgiving. He mentions upcoming episodes and encourages everyone to stay healthy.Thank you for tuning into Telltales. Don't forget to download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and join us next week for more insights into the energy, technology, and healthcare sectors.#Investing, #AI, #NVIDIA, #Apple, #Amazon, #Tesla, #Microsoft, #Netflix, #EnergyMarkets, #OilPrices, #NaturalGas, #StockMarket, #TechStocks, #FinancialAnalysis, #AntitrustAAPL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ NFLX 0.00%↑ CRM 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team continues last week’s discussion on the potential impact of Donald Trump's election victory on pages 1-7 of the memo. They also delve into company-specific news and developments, such as Netflix's live streaming challenges and the future of the semiconductor industry.[00:00:49] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt discusses the potential impact of a Trump administration on the global oil market, particularly in relation to Iran's production and exports. The surplus capacity could dry up if the new administration tightens sanctions or makes a deal with Iran.[00:03:48] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY The team notes that natural gas prices are finally close to a three handle on the December contract, and the out years are behaving reasonably well. Hunt plans to update the natural gas demand and supply forecast for the following week.[00:04:16] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt believes that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will work on finding ways to make the government more efficient, with Musk aiming to save $2 trillion. Substantial reductions in healthcare spending may be necessary to achieve this goal.[00:05:07] Payment Companies: MA, V, PYPL (Page 7) The team discusses the potential impact of a Trump presidency on payment companies like Mastercard, Visa, and PayPal. They explore the role of crypto enthusiasts in shaping the administration's stance and the challenges blockchain faces in replacing traditional payment systems.[00:09:20] Telecom Companies: T, VZ, TMUS (Page 6) Hunt and the team analyze the prospects for AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile under a Trump administration. They discuss the completion of 5G network buildouts, potential changes in regulations, and the impact of low Earth orbit satellites on the industry.[00:12:11] Cable Companies: CHTR, CMCSA (Page 5) The discussion turns to the traditional cable companies, Charter and Comcast, and their transition into providing internet access. The team explores the strong competition in the industry and the potential impact of pharmaceutical advertising on news coverage.[00:17:40] Streaming and Media: NFLX, DIS, META, SPOT (Page 4) Jason and Mike delve into the challenges Netflix faced during the Mike Tyson fight live stream and the infrastructure required for successful live streaming events. They also discuss the differences between Netflix's traditional streaming model and live streaming.[00:21:17] Semiconductor Industry: NVDA, AMD, INTC, TSMC, ASML (Page 3) The team analyzes the semiconductor industry, focusing on the shift from human-based coding to learning algorithms and the importance of GPUs. They discuss the positions of NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor, and ASML in the market and the potential impact of tariffs and geopolitical factors.[00:28:34] Big Tech and Tesla: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, TSLA (Page 1) The conversation turns to the surge in Tesla's stock price following Trump's victory and Elon Musk's influence on policy and cabinet choices. They discuss the potential for federal licensing of autonomous driving and its impact on Tesla. The team also explores the proposed antitrust resolution for Alphabet's browser and the dynamics of search engine competition.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics related to the 2024 election outcome, providing insights and analysis on the potential impacts across various industries. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions on energy, technology, and healthcare in future episodes.#Semiconductors, #StreamingWars, #PharmaAds, #NewsMedia, #AntitrustLaw MA 0.00%↑ V 0.00%↑ PYPL 0.00%↑ T 0.00%↑ VZ 0.00%↑ TMUS 0.00%↑ CHTR 0.00%↑ CMCSA 0.00%↑ NFLX 0.00%↑ DIS 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ SPOT 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ ASML 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence analyze market impacts of the developing Trump administration across various sectors.⏱️ Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:30 - Intro00:00:44 - World Oil Supply/Demand Analysis03:42 - US Gas Demand/Supply Overview04:40 - US Government Revenues and Expenses05:30 - UBER/DASH/ABNB/FIVE/HROW Analysis06:33 - Healthcare Sector (UNH/CVS/REGN/LLY)09:39 - Mining & Energy (FCX/ALB/CF/NEE)13:06 - Restaurant & Hospitality Stocks14:11 - Food & Beverage Sector15:19 - Pharmaceutical Companies16:20 - Industrial Equipment17:41 - Financial Sector Analysis20:58 - Natural Gas Companies21:27 - Oil Companies Review21:40 - Midstream Companies21:51 - Major Oil Companies22:06 - Retail Sector Analysis🔑 Key Topics:Impact of Iran sanctions on oil marketsHealthcare sector reforms and PBM regulationsElectric vehicle market outlookFinancial sector regulatory changesEnergy sector developments💡 Featured Companies:Healthcare: UnitedHealth, CVS, Regeneron, Eli LillyEnergy: ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillipsTech: Uber, DoorDash, AirbnbRetail: Walmart, Target, Home Depot📝 Note: This episode contains investment analysis and market commentary. All discussions are for informational purposes only.#Trump2024, #EnergyPolicy, #HealthcareReform, #TechRegulation, #ChinaRelations, #IranSanctions, #UkraineNATO, #ElonMusk, #VivekRamaswamy, #GovernmentEfficiency$UNH $CVS $REGN $LLY $PFE $MRNA $LNTH $BNTX $VRTX $FCX $ALB $CF $NEE $FDX $UPS $NKE $COST $MCD $SBUX $CMG $CELH $HLT $WMT $TGT $LOW $HD $KMX $JPM $MS $GS $IBKR $AR $EQT $CHK $AM $EOG $MGY $PR $FANG $KMI $EPD $ET $WES $XOM $CVX $COP $OXY $LNGThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Donald Trump's 2024 election victory on healthcare, energy, and technology. They analyze key exhibits and dive into company-specific news and developments.[00:00:57] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Page 1) Hunt expects a Trump administration deal with China to tighten the oil market surplus in 2025 by phasing out Iranian barrels. Despite predictions of peak oil demand, the IEA still forecasts an increase in 2025 versus 2024.[00:02:10] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Page 1) Hunt anticipates better natural gas demand under Trump, with power demand outperforming LNG. He believes the administration will lift the hold on new LNG projects and combined cycle plants, leading to stronger demand growth.[00:04:32] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Page 1) Hunt emphasizes the need to reduce the deficit in "all other" expenses and hopes Elon Musk will help save $200-300 billion. The goal is to get the deficit trend moving downward and lower the debt-to-GNP ratio through economic growth.[00:08:41] Healthcare News: PFE, MRNA, LNTH, BNTX, VRTX (Page 15) Jason discusses the potential for changes to the ACA under Trump and the possibility of the FDA losing its food regulation responsibilities. Vertex's earnings and pipeline progress, particularly in type 1 diabetes, are highlighted, while Lantheus faces challenges with Pylarify sales growth.[00:21:15] Semiconductor Industry: NVDA, AMD, INTC, TSMC, ASML (Page 3) The team explores the implications of a Trump presidency on the semiconductor industry, including the Taiwan-China dynamic and the potential for Intel to be merged with Qualcomm or Broadcom. They also discuss the importance of ASML's lithography machines and the challenges Intel faces in catching up to TSMC.[00:28:06] Big Tech and Regulations: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, TSLA (Page 1) Mike examines the potential impact of a Trump administration on big tech companies, noting the president's anti-big tech stance. The team also discusses the possibility of easier acquisitions and fewer regulations in the tech sector.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics related to the 2024 election outcome, providing insights and analysis on the potential impacts across various industries. #Subscribe for more in-depth discussions on energy, healthcare, and technology.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00:00] Introduction[00:00:57] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandHunt discusses Israel's recent actions and their impact on oil facilities.Analysis of OPEC's plan to increase oil supply by one million barrels per day starting December.Suggestion to monitor oil company stocks for potential investment opportunities.[00:02:47] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand/SupplyExamination of gas demand growth and LNG exports.Discussion on renewable energy's impact on gas demand for power generation.Projections for gas prices in 2024 and 2025.Mention of increased gas imports from Canada.[00:05:53] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Revenues and ExpensesReview of the U.S. government's cash flow and spending challenges.Analysis of major expense categories: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, interest, and defense.Discussion on the difficulty of reducing government spending by $2 trillion.Emphasis on the need to flatline spending and promote economic growth.[00:08:24] AI's Impact on the Election CycleJason notes that fears about AI-generated misinformation did not materialize significantly.Discussion on deep fakes and the role of tech companies in suppressing misinformation.Mike cautions that the election is not over yet.[00:09:20] Analyzing the Netflix FranchiseHunt challenges Mike and Jason to analyze Netflix's position in the streaming industry.Comparison between Netflix, Spotify, and YouTube.Jason predicts a potential duopoly between Netflix and YouTube.Mike discusses different content types and their value, such as live sports vs. reusable shows.Analysis of competitive dynamics and market strategies of streaming services.[00:16:42] Franchise Values of Google, Microsoft, and Their ChallengersHunt questions the strength of Google's search franchise amid AI advancements.Jason and Mike discuss Bing's market share and the potential for AI to disrupt traditional search.Conversation about OpenAI, ChatGPT, and Google's AI capabilities.Speculation on Meta's influence by giving away AI products.[00:23:54] Healthcare Update: Lilly Earnings and Vertex PharmaceuticalsHunt introduces the healthcare segment focusing on Eli Lilly and Vertex Pharmaceuticals.Jason explains Lilly's earnings miss due to compounding pharmacies affecting sales.Discussion on FDA regulations and the legal battle with compounding pharmacies.Update on Vertex's pain drug, market size, and potential to reduce opioid addiction.Mention of CVS considering a breakup and antitrust actions against PBMs (Pharmacy Benefit Managers).Brief discussion on UnitedHealth's financial performance.[00:31:13] Closing Remarks$NFLX $GOOGL $MSFT $SPOT $META $AMZN $LLY $VRTX $UNH $CVSThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com