Telltales

SHOWNOTESThis week the crew dissects energy demand plateaus, a surprising federal deficit outlook, and why performance-per-watt now rules both hyperscale datacenters and your smartphone—before closing with AI’s domination of medical diagnosis and fresh biotech data.[00:00] Intro [00:00:45] Exhibit C – World Oil Demand & SupplyHunt notes 2025 demand is now expected to edge only 0.5 Mb/d above 2024. Mature regions (U.S., EU, Japan) stay flat, China dips, and “Other Asia” disappoints. Supply wildcards include higher Saudi output, Russian maintenance issues, and U.S. sanctions holding Iran around 3 Mb/d.[00:02:14] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Demand & SuppplyWith 2025 Henry Hub futures ~$10/MMBtu below 2024, surplus capacity and flat power-sector demand could pressure prices—unless Middle-East tensions keep a risk premium. LNG exports finally lift in ’25-’26, but dry-gas production must stay disciplined to avoid a repeat of 2020’s glut.[00:04:36] Exhibit A – Deficit Math & the Dollar Hunt’s model shows FY-2026 deficit shrinking to ~$1.5 T on tariff gains and flat discretionary spend—even as interest costs climb. Holding public debt at ~100% of GDP would stabilize the dollar’s reserve-currency status, though Mike and Jason question the optimism.[00:11:17] Chip History – The Rise of ARM & Hyperscale SiliconThe trio recounts AWS’s 2006-2014 ascent and why Amazon’s Graviton ARM CPU (2018) eroded Intel’s data-center share from 90% to [00:20:31] Sponsor Break – Oakcliff Sailing UpdateA quick detour to Oyster Bay’s high-performance training and thunder-storm escapades.[00:21:24] Apple’s Siri Seeks Outside AI (p.1)Apple may license external LLMs to upgrade Siri, even as it flirts with its own privacy rules. Jason argues Cupertino should position hardware as the on-ramp for every model rather than build one giant brain in-house.[00:24:09] Model Mash-Up – Microsoft AI Beats Doctors (p.1)Microsoft research shows ensembles of LLMs debating diagnoses achieve 4× physician accuracy. Mike already cross-checks ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity the same way—suggesting a multi-model future, not winner-take-all.[00:25:32] Healthcare Spotlight – Vertex & NIH Transparency (p. 15)Vertex’s phase-III kidney drug competitor hit 46% protein reduction vs. Vertex’s prior 66%, keeping VRTX best-in-class. Jason pegs CF cash flows at ~$400/sh of value, so today’s share price barely charges for the pipeline. NIH will require publicly funded studies to go open-access, potentially reshaping peer review.[00:27:35] RFK Jr. & Agency Talent (Exhibit A)Despite political controversy, RFK-era health agencies attract standout personnel, signaling renewed credibility.[00:28:12] Medicare & Medicaid Fraud Crackdown (Exhibit A)DOJ leverages new software to expose a $14 B identity-theft scheme—one bite out of an estimated $100 B in annual fraud, underscoring digital ROI in government healthcare.[00:28:52] Looking Ahead – GPUs & Software History Next week wraps chip history with GPUs, then rewinds to punch-card-era software. Until then, stay healthy and keep cash flowing!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn Episode 2526 the Telltales crew races through this week’s exhibits, rewinds the semiconductor timeline, and sizes up fresh tech-and-healthcare catalysts—from Tesla’s robotaxis to a federal ruling that shields AI training data.[00:00] Cold Open[00:00:56] Exhibit C – Global Oil BalanceHunt flags his revised crude-supply model: U.S. output unlikely to hit 13 Mb/d, Russia drifting under 9.8 Mb/d, and Saudi barrels rising. A 3–4 Mb/d surplus keeps Brent range-bound as risk premia compress post-cease-fire.[00:01:50] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural-Gas OutlookDry-gas production plateaus near 106 Bcfd; the Permian slowdown and tepid power demand temper growth. LNG exports shine, storage draws tighten, and $4 Henry Hub looks sticky through ’26.[00:03:41] Exhibit A – Uncle Sam’s Cash-Flow StatementA first cut of the FY-26 forecast still can’t close the deficit gap. Hunt explains why reconciliation math and 60-vote gridlock leave structural reform to House budget hawks.[00:04:39] Sponsor Break – Oakcliff SailingMike spotlights Oakcliff’s blistering boat-yard schedule and scholarship program, urging sailors to pay it forward.[00:05:26] Chip History: TSMC to AMD’s 64-Bit Breakthrough (p3)Morris Chang’s 1987 fab-only gamble births TSMC and unlocks fabless models. Jim Keller’s K7/K8 Athlon era briefly drags AMD to ~50 % x86 share, proving performance-per-watt can disrupt scale economics.[00:10:34] Distributed Computing & the Birth of AWS (p1)Jason recalls Yahoo/Google ditching multimillion-dollar mainframes for racks of $2 k servers, inventing “big data” along the way. Amazon’s 2006 epiphany—rent idle holiday capacity—spawns EC2 and S3.[00:15:23] Tech Trends: Who’s the Next AWS?Hunt games out winner-take-all odds. OpenAI owns mindshare, but Jason argues today’s AI and blockchain moves feel evolutionary, not the platform shift that cloud computing was.[00:17:51] Stablecoins & the GENIUS Act (p7)Mike/Jason debate Congress’s new bill mandating 1-for-1 Treasury backing. Bank-issued coins could soak up supply just as deficits balloon—yet Visa/Mastercard may cede little share if faster rails emerge.[00:19:42] Tesla Robotaxi Rollout (p1)Early Austin riders rave about the fully driverless service—another optionality boost to Tesla’s margin story.[00:19:50] Netflix Eyes Live TV (p4)A French broadcast deal hints at Netflix morphing into full-stack cable 2.0, chasing YouTube TV’s bundle play.[00:20:15] AI Fair-Use Win (p1)A California court says training an LLM on copyrighted books mirrors human reading—relieving Anthropic & peers from existential IP risk.[00:20:48] Harrow Adds BYQLOVI Rights (p20)For just $500 k up-front, Harrow tucks another ophthalmic asset into its commercial engine—classic bolt-on deal structure.[00:22:41] $HIMS vs. Novo Nordisk (p19)Novo yanks its GLP-1 direct-to-consumer pact, accusing HIMS of pushing compounded knock-offs. Mike calls out HIMSS’s dubious IP posture and healthcare conflicts.[00:24:34] Healthcare Rulebook: Price Transparency & Prior Auth (p15, 19-20)CMS signals mandatory net-price disclosure; HHS moves 280 M insured lives toward e-prior-auth to slash admin friction.[00:26:09] Taxing Pharma Ads (p15, 19)The White House floats nixing ad-cost deductions. Lilly’s $1.5 B budget and Regeneron’s spend make them prime targets—an indirect curb on DTC pharma blitzes.[00:28:04] Next Week: iPhone, GPUs & the Energy Cost of ComputeThe crew tees up Keller’s performance-per-watt legacy in mobile and modern AI training, promising one last chip-history chapter.Thanks for listening! Subscribe on telltales.us for the full memo and catch next week’s deep dive into Apple silicon and GPU economics.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESTelltales dives into the week’s Cash-Flow Memo with a global tour of oil markets, U.S. fiscal math, fast-moving FDA reforms, and the AI talent wars—plus a new national sailing ranking and a teaser for next week’s chip-history deep dive.[00:00] Intro (–)Mike, Hunt, and Jason set the stage for 30 minutes of energy, tech, and healthcare analysis, remind listeners of the Cash-Flow Memo at Telltales.us, and roll the standard disclaimer.[00:38] Iran Tensions & Spare Oil Capacity (Exhibit C)Hunt explains why fresh geopolitical alarms around Iran may fizzle out in a few weeks, leaving ~3.5 MMbbl/d of potential supply still sidelined. The hosts outline short-term implications for global crude flows and price risk.[01:35] Oil & Gas Price Outlook (Exhibit B)Reviewing latest strip prices, they note WTI firming to $72–73 while 2026 remains in backwardation. Natural-gas production appears to be leveling near 105–106 Bcf/d, bolstering Hunt’s $3.80–$3.90/MMBtu 2025 forecast and a constructive view for gas-weighted E&Ps.[02:48] U.S. Budget, Deficit & Medicaid Debate (Exhibit A)The Senate’s “big, beautiful bill” could trim the FY-27 deficit toward $1.6 T, but Hunt warns that savings must come from the “all-other” spending bucket. Mike highlights how California and New York face scrutiny over Medicaid outlays, which represent roughly one-third of California’s budget.[05:10] Healthcare Spending & Agency Leadership (Exhibit A)With RFK Jr.’s appointees running key health agencies, the team is cautiously optimistic that overall healthcare costs might flatten, echoing Medicaid’s recent plateau near $600 B. They argue real deficit progress is impossible without taming healthcare inflation.[05:50] RFK Jr. Guts Vaccine Committee (Exhibit A)Jason details RFK Jr.’s wholesale dismissal of all 17 CDC immunization-committee members—13 installed late in the prior administration—sparking worries about anti-vax influence. New appointees are expected soon, leaving policy direction uncertain.[07:27] FDA Reforms: Gene Therapy, AI & Two-Month Reviews (Exhibit A)Highlights from the FDA’s cell-and-gene roundtable: proposals to socialize million-dollar curative therapies and a pilot AI system already speeding protocol reviews. A new priority-review-voucher program could slash approval times from a year to as little as two months—worth $160 M in time value for drug sponsors.[13:26] Linking Healthcare Fixes to Fiscal Health (Exhibit A)Hunt argues that meaningful deficit reduction hinges on the success of such FDA and agency reforms; without healthcare savings, the spending problem remains unsolved.[14:09] Apple, Google & the AI Arms Race (Page 1)Jason warns Apple’s delayed Siri overhaul hands Android a nine-month head start, while Hunt questions the sustainability of Google’s $20 B/year default-search payments. The trio debates OpenAI’s potential antitrust complaint against Microsoft and the murky definition of AGI.[18:42] ILCA 7 Top-Mark Rankings Launch (–)Olympic hopeful Daniel Escudero introduces a transparent ranking system for U.S. ILCA 7 sailors, aimed at unifying domestic and international performance metrics and strengthening America’s 2028 Olympic bid.[20:02] AI Talent War & Meta’s $100 M Bonuses (p. 4)Meta reportedly dangles nine-figure packages to lure elite AI engineers away from OpenAI and Anthropic. Mike notes the scarcity of experts who can fully exploit rapidly advancing hardware, tilting the battlefield toward deep-pocket incumbents.[22:12] Vertex’s Type-1 Diabetes Cure & Other Healthcare Stocks (Page 15)Jason outlines how a new two-month FDA voucher could let Vertex ($VRTX) win approval for its stem-cell therapy within five years—transformative despite immunosuppressant hurdles. Hunt flags mixed trial results and the limited 60 k-patient addressable market.[24:25] Next Week: From Wintel to GPUs (–)Mike previews the continuation of their semiconductor history series—resurrecting AMD, the dawn of distributed computing, mobile’s rise, GPUs, and TSMC’s fabs.[25:25] Must-Listen: Morris Chang on TSMC (–)Hunt endorses the Acquired podcast’s long-form interview with TSMC founder Morris Chang, calling it essential for anyone investing in AI hardware; links will be in the episode email.[27:38] Outro & Subscribe (–)The hosts sign off, teasing next Wednesday’s show and encouraging listeners to join the mailing list at Telltales.us.Stay tuned, share the episode with a fellow market-watcher, and hit subscribe so you never miss our weekly memo-to-mic breakdown.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates hav

SHOWNOTESThis week Mike, Jason, and Hunt sprint through oil, gas, tariffs, chips, tech launches, AI financing drama, and the brewing revolt against pharmacy-benefit managers—wrapping with Harrow’s latest capital-allocation coup.[00:00] Intro [00:01] Exhibit C – Oil Oversupply & the Iran Stalemate (Exhibit C)Hunt explains why global crude stays firm near $65–66 despite clear oversupply, tracing it to dead-locked U.S.–Iran negotiations over centrifuges.[00:02] Exhibit B – Natural Gas Holds the Line (Exhibit B)Production hovers around 106 Bcf/d; flat U.S. power demand is offset by LNG exports and cold-weather consumption, keeping prices around $4.[00:03] Exhibit A – Tariffs & U.S. Fiscal Math (Exhibit A)Tariff receipts could hit $700 B if it reaches $60 B per month. Jason notes China-related levies may settle near 35 % (ex-fentanyl).[00:04] Rare-Earth Magnets vs. NVIDIA Chips: Trade-Deal Leverage (p.1)China throttles drone-part exports and magnets; the U.S. counters with chip restrictions—highlighting mutual dependencies and a possible “chips-for-magnets” swap.[00:07] CPI Calm Despite Tariff Talk (Exhibit A)May inflation data shows little price pressure so far, challenging economists’ warnings of tariff-driven CPI spikes.[00:07] Chip History – From 386 to the WINTEL Juggernaut (p.3)Mike and Jason revisit Intel’s pivot to CPUs, the rise of the 386, Microsoft’s DOS/Windows partnership, and the CISC vs. RISC debate that shaped desktop dominance.[00:14] Apple WWDC: Liquid-Glass UX & the Missing AI Play (p.1)Jason critiques Apple’s “liquid glass” interface—translucent icons that hint at an AR future—while lamenting Cupertino’s AI lag despite iron-clad customer lock-in.[00:18] xAI’s $5 B Debt Deal Stumbles (p.1)Morgan Stanley shelves a 12 % syndicated loan after Elon’s tweet-storm; Hunt wonders if weak X/Twitter revenue can support the spend.[00:19] Could Tesla Scoop Up xAI? (p.1)Jason weighs the pros and cons of rolling xAI into Tesla—synergies with FSD and humanoid robots versus dilution and distraction.[00:22] UnitedHealth, PBMs & the Rot in U.S. Healthcare (p.19)The crew argues that dismantling pharmacy-benefit managers is step #1 to break insurers’ “raise-premiums-faster-than-costs” model, potentially shrinking UNH’s growth engine.[00:27] Harrow Licenses BYQLOVI™ for Peanuts (p.20)Harrow (HROW) nabs U.S. rights to a nanoparticle steroid eyedrop for only $500 K—an ideal plug-in for its ophthalmology sales force and a textbook capital-allocation win.[00:29] Outro This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00] Cold Open[00:00:47] Exhibit C – World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt explains how OPEC + and Saudi Arabia are phasing curtailments out of the market—potentially adding 1.2 Mbbl/d in just three months—and why that could pressure crude prices if capacity rises to an 11 Mbbl/d run-rate.[00:02:09] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook (Exhibit B)Despite AI-powered data-center hype, gas‐fired power demand is flat; LNG exports remain the bright spot, expected to average 16 Bcf/d this year and 18 + next. With dry-gas output steady near 106 Bcf/d, Hunt believes $4 gas can hold.[00:03:04] Exhibit A – Federal Revenues & Spending (Exhibit A)The team dissects why revenues climb toward $5 T while expenses swell over $6 T, singling out interest costs and discretionary outlays—not Medicare/Medicaid—as the chief deficit drivers. Musk’s critique of “big and beautiful” budgets sparks debate on trimming the trillion-dollar gap.[00:08:00] Chip History: Intel’s Logical PivotMike traces Intel’s leap from DRAM to CPUs, IBM’s game-changing cross-licensing deal with AMD, and how founder intuition (Gordon Moore, Andy Grove) enabled the x86 juggernaut—raising questions about Intel’s later misses in mobile and AI.[00:14:00] Top Mark Rankings for ILCA 7 Sailing Guest Daniel Escudero unveils a transparent, points-based ranking system to track U.S. ILCA 7 sailors, aiming to boost Olympic competitiveness while rallying the sailing community.[00:15:58] Semiconductor Capacity Crunch — NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML (p. 3)Hunt and Jason unpack hyperscalers’ hunt for NVIDIA alternatives, TSMC’s monopoly on advanced packaging, and whether Intel’s Arizona fab can catch up. TSMC’s disciplined CapEx (~$40 B for 2025) signals another doubling of AI-chip throughput.[00:22:01] Meta’s Nuclear Power Deal (p. 4)Meta locks in output from an aging Illinois reactor, giving Constellation the confidence to invest in life-extension upgrades—an early example of data centers turning to baseload nuclear for green power.[00:23:18] Apple’s In-House AI Challenge (p. 1)Rumors swirl of Apple’s ChatGPT-class model; the hosts debate whether Big Tech has been sandbagging releases and what fast-follow strategies mean for AI moats.[00:25:38] BioNTech–Bristol Myers Cancer Deal (p. 15)A $3.5 B bispecific antibody partnership raises eyebrows: BioNTech de-risks promising oncology assets while Jason questions whether combo drugs outperform separate therapies.[00:27:47] Weight-Loss Drug Price War (p. 19)Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk cut GLP-1 prices toward $400/month as compounding pharmacies and next-gen oral pills loom, reminding investors that pharma “cash cows” have finite pasture.[00:30:04] UnitedHealth: Indispensable or Indefensible? (p. 19)With UNH shares halved and a new CEO, the trio spar over whether PBMs are too vertically integrated, if UNH can be re-formed, or if the system must “burn it to the ground” to lower costs—setting up next week’s deep dive.[00:32:55] Closing Thanks for tuning in! Grab the full Cash Flow Memo, share your thoughts on AI-chip capacity or healthcare reform, and subscribe so you never miss an episode.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team analyzes Nvidia's upcoming earnings amid 70% free cash flow margins, explores the fascinating history of Intel's founding by the "Traitorous Eight," and discusses major developments in AI competition and healthcare.[00:48] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand (Page 1) Hunt notes oil prices holding in the $60 range despite OPEC+ production increases of 400,000 barrels/day per month. The backwardation in futures has flattened out, suggesting US production may plateau and decline by 400,000 barrels/day annually as capex follows cash flow down.[01:15] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply (Page 1) Analysis of natural gas markets and production trends across major US basins including Permian, Haynesville, and Marcellus.[02:39] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses (Page 1) Discussion of federal deficit projections showing improvement from $1.93 trillion to $1.78 trillion. Mike highlights Elon Musk's disappointment with lack of spending cuts in the recent budget bill, which increased spending by $200 billion. Trump's tariff proposals would generate under $300 billion annually - about 7-8% of federal revenue.[04:05] Semiconductor History II: The Traitorous Eight & The Rise of Intel Mike corrects last week's history, explaining how William Shockley left Bell Labs to start Shockley Semiconductor, then eight key employees (the "Traitorous Eight" including Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce) left to found Fairchild Semiconductor with $500 each. Fairchild pioneered silicon wafers and photolithography for integrated circuits, with early contracts from the military including the F-14 Tomcat's flight computer. Intel was founded in 1968 by Noyce, Moore, and Andy Grove, initially focusing on DRAM memory chips.[09:28] Anthropic's New Models Challenge OpenAI (Page 1) Mike discusses Anthropic's new cutting-edge model beating benchmarks, noting their B2B developer focus versus OpenAI's consumer approach. The Microsoft-OpenAI alliance has evolved as both companies now compete for enterprise customers, with Microsoft supporting multiple language models including Anthropic.[11:38] Apple's AI Strategy Dilemma (Page 1) Hunt raises concerns about OpenAI's $6 billion valuation for Johnny Ive's new venture as a threat to Apple. Jason suggests Apple should become the platform for accessing all AI models rather than competing directly, similar to Microsoft's agnostic approach.[14:09] Google Search Under AI Threat (Page 1) Discussion of whether Google can maintain its search monopoly as AI transforms information retrieval. The team notes Google's AI responses are good but lack conversational follow-up, while users remain conditioned to traditional search queries.[16:52] Nvidia Earnings Preview & Competition (Page 3) Hunt highlights Nvidia's recovery from $90 to $130, trading at a 2% free cash flow yield with unprecedented 60-70% margins on $130 billion revenue run rate. Jason believes margins will hold for 1-2 years before ASICs potentially capture market share. Mike argues Nvidia's software ecosystem and datacenter-level solutions provide lasting pricing power, estimating ASICs may only capture 20% market share in three years.[22:03] Healthcare News GLP-1 drugs from Eli Lilly now available direct-to-consumer for $300-350/month versus $1000+ with insurance, using vials instead of pens for better dose control. A new blood test for Alzheimer's detecting beta amyloid was approved, enabling earlier diagnosis. CVS is closing all Arkansas pharmacies after the state banned companies from owning both PBMs and pharmacies, potentially foreshadowing national regulatory changes.Next week, the team will continue their semiconductor history series with Intel's rise to dominance and eventual decline. Download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us for complete financial analysis of 80 companies across these sectors.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, we explore the real drivers behind oil prices, analyze new trends in semiconductor manufacturing and AI infrastructure, and unveil the first in a series on the history of chips, software, and biotech. Plus, Regeneron makes a surprising buy.[01:00] Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt discusses Exhibit C, detailing global oil supply and demand trends. He notes that while demand is stable, excess capacity and increased output from OPEC+ could push prices lower. U.S. production is likely to flatten or decline slightly, contributing to a delicate supply-demand balance.[05:26] US Gas Market Overview (Exhibit B)Natural gas prices have stabilized around $3.80/MMBtu after a sharp fall from the Ukraine-driven 2022 spike. Hunt explains that supply increases, particularly from the Permian Basin, have kept pace with demand. Future price strength depends on whether supply growth continues.[07:20] Federal Budget and Deficit Outlook (Exhibit A)The team reviews U.S. government revenues and expenditures through 2026, highlighting modest deficit improvements but noting the need for further spending restraint. Hunt advises caution for investors and encourages keeping capital on hand in case of market dislocations.[11:08] Semiconductor History SegmentIn a new feature, the team begins tracing the history of semiconductors, starting with Bell Labs and William Shockley’s development of the first transistor in 1947. They discuss how early equity structures shaped Silicon Valley and set the tone for innovation-driven compensation models.[15:28] Big Tech and AI Model Shifts (Page 1)Jason explains a major shift in AI architecture toward reasoning-based models. He also covers announcements from Google I/O, including Gemini agent capabilities and enhanced video generation. OpenAI’s acquisition of Jony Ive’s startup ‘IO’ is seen as a countermove to Google’s strong showing.[19:37] Semicap and U.S. Fab Investments (Page 3)Discussion shifts to TSMC and Intel’s U.S. manufacturing expansions. Arizona fabs are scaling, but remain a fraction of Taiwan’s output. Intel’s foundry strategy faces skepticism but may appeal to customers like Nvidia seeking more capacity.[21:31] Tesla, OpenAI, and Strategic AI Infrastructure (Page 1)Tesla plans a $25B GPU investment to build out the Colossus data center. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s acquisition of ‘IO’ is framed as a strategic response to Google’s momentum. The episode questions whether OpenAI can maintain its innovation lead.[23:43] Oakcliff Sailing UpdateAn interlude featuring Oakcliff Sailing’s latest activities and upcoming races, including the Block Island and Annapolis-Newport races. A call for marketing help is included along with discounted SailGP tickets.[25:52] FDA Podcast and Healthcare Regulation (Page 19)Jason highlights an FDA podcast where the commissioner explores ideas for faster clinical trials. This could reduce burdens on pharmaceutical sponsors and accelerate innovation.[26:30] Regeneron Buys 23andMe (Page 19)Regeneron acquires 23andMe for ~$250M, gaining access to a large genetic database. Jason discusses the potential to mine this data for novel drug discoveries and why 23andMe failed to capitalize on it.[27:30] Lantheus, Vertex, and Imaging Trends (Page 15)Positive trends for Lantheus emerge as imaging markets grow, especially for prostate cancer and Alzheimer’s diagnostics. Vertex faces competition from a reformulated generic pain drug. These developments shape expectations for both firms.[30:27] Top Mark Sailing RankingsMike unveils the Top Mark Rankings—a leaderboard supporting Olympic-class sailors en route to LA 2028. The initiative offers visibility and structure to U.S.-based competitors and is backed by Top Mark Capital.Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe for weekly deep dives into the companies, technologies, and economic forces shaping our future. For more, visit telltales.us.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode Mike, Jason, and Hunt weave together energy markets, semiconductor geopolitics, and healthcare shake‑ups to surface the cash‑flow signals that matter most for investors navigating 2025.[00:00] Intro[00:00:38] Oil & Gas Snapshot – Exhibits C & B (pp. 1‑2)Hunt dissects world crude supply, flagging likely production lifts from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Iran. Despite OPEC+ relaxation, Brent has held near $60‑$70, suggesting bearish expectations were largely priced in.[00:03:13] US Fiscal Stress – Exhibit A (p. 3)A proposed U.S. budget expands defense outlays instead of trimming them, leaving Medicare/Medicaid untouched. Jason notes DOJ plans for Rapid‑FI fraud‑prevention at CMS—software triaging payments before dollars leave the Treasury.[00:05:31] Semiconductor Decoupling: China vs NVIDIA (p. 4)The team explores how tariff walls could birth a “parallel CUDA” inside China. Jason argues NVIDIA’s global moat is its CUDA software layer; Huawei must replicate both silicon and ecosystem. Mike warns that isolation often breeds disruptive alternatives.[00:10:16] STEM Surge & ASML Imitation (p. 4)China graduates 1.2 million engineers annually and is racing to copy ASML‑grade lithography in‑house. Hunt frames it as strategic absorption of surplus engineering talent.[00:11:48] Sponsor Break – Oakcliff Sailing (n/a)A quick cinematic detour to Oakcliff’s foiling chase boats.[00:12:48] Tesla vs BYD: Premium or Mass‑Market? (p. 1)Mike maintains Tesla commands pricing power as long as its FSD remains materially ahead. BYD’s scale threatens margins, while Xiaomi’s FSD setback highlights liability clouds.[00:15:13] Berkshire AGM & Currency Risk With $348 B in Treasuries, Buffett flags dollar debasement as his top worry. Jason speculates Berkshire might deploy cash into healthcare‑system rescues or grid build‑outs under Greg Abel.[00:17:46] Q1 Tech Earnings: $MSFT & $META LeadMeta hikes CapEx despite cost‑cut talk; Microsoft beats street expectations, underlining durable AI spending.[00:18:06] AI Monetization & Google’s Defensive Stance Meta shifts transformer models into ad ranking. Apple hints at AI‑search alternatives, threatening Google’s 96 % share—Jason imagines personal‑shopper agents disrupting traditional search ads.[00:20:18] Healthcare Round‑Up IQVIA reports U.S. drug spend up 11.5 %, driven by GLP‑1s. Vinay Prasad’s FDA appointment spooks biotech; proposed NIH reproducibility mandate could reshape study economics.[00:22:51] Vertex: Pipeline Check & Russian IP Leak (p. 15)Despite market jitters, Vertex eyes 2026 FDA submission for a Type 1 diabetes cure; Russian generic CF therapy is a one‑off hit.[00:25:09] Lantheus: Diagnostics Thrive Amid Setbacks (Page 15)Cancellation of a prostate‑therapy program hurts the stock, yet Novartis’s competing therapy expands demand for Lantheus’s PSMA‑PET scans. Tau‑PET for Alzheimer’s heads to the FDA next quarter.[00:27:00] Harrow & Dry‑Eye Market Potential (Page 20)Ophthalmologists praise Harrow’s Vevye; earnings tomorrow will gauge uptake velocity.[00:27:35] Oral GLP‑1 Pills – The Next Obesity Wave (Page 19)Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk advance daily tablets, enabling dose flexibility. Micro‑dosing experiments by athletes hint at broader niches.[00:28:40] Outro & DisclaimersThe hosts wrap with a reminder: do your own work; positions may be held.Thanks for sailing with us. Subscribe, drop a review, and grab the weekly Cash‑Flow Memo at Telltales.us—your compass for markets in motion.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this fast-moving 30-minute round-table, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace and Hunt Lawrence assess how an accelerating economic split between the United States and China would ripple through energy, technology, healthcare, retail and more. Drawing on their weekly Cash-Flow Memo, they move page-by-page through a 20-page company list and three macro “Exhibits,” highlighting immediate supply-chain pain points and the longer-term strategic pivots each industry may need. (Nicoletti et al., 2025)A broad decoupling between the United States and China dominates this week’s discussion. Mike, Hunt and Jason walk through oil, gas and budget exhibits before racing down a twenty-page memo to gauge which companies—and whole industries—win, lose, or merely swerve if trade barriers harden.[00:00] Intro (n/a)Mike opens with a blunt warning that current China-chip policy is “shooting ourselves in the foot,” then welcomes listeners, sets the 30-minute agenda (energy / tech / healthcare) and plays the standard disclaimer.[00:00:45] China’s Oil Demand & OPEC Strategy (Exhibit C)Hunt notes China’s oil consumption “flat-lines” as EV adoption and a softer economy bite, while Saudi Arabia deliberately withholds 4 Mb/d of spare capacity to nudge a U.S.–Iran deal and keep prices firm.[00:02:20] U.S. Natural-Gas Snapshot (Exhibit B)Oil hovers near $60 and gas slips toward $4, but the bigger story is record dry-gas output (≈106 Bcf/d). LNG exports rise from 13 Bcf/d to 16 Bcf/d, keeping demand solid even as supply pressure increases.[00:03:15] Tariffs, Deficits & the Decoupling Thought-Experiment (Exhibit A)Tariff revenue (~$300 B) is “something—but not much” versus a $1-2 T deficit. Hunt argues spending must fall to $5.5 T by FY-2026 or risk failed Treasury auctions. The hosts decide to sprint through 20 memo pages to test how a full U.S.–China decoupling would hit specific companies today and over time.[00:07:24] Consumer & Logistics First-Look (pp. 20 – 17)Five Below faces supply-shock pain; Uber, DoorDash and Airbnb see muted but real pressure as Chinese outbound travel cools. Albemarle could actually benefit if U.S. lithium refining scales, while FedEx, UPS and Nike brace for cross-border friction.[00:12:16] Food, Hospitality & Beverage (p. 16)Hilton suffers from falling international traffic; Starbucks and McDonald’s risk lost China earnings; Chipotle and Celsius feel minimal direct effects, though Chipotle’s avocado pipeline stays on watch.[00:12:52] Pharma & Rare-Earth Bottlenecks (p. 15)High margins give Pfizer, Moderna and peers tariff-absorbing room, yet Lantheus and Novartis depend on rare-earth isotopes, and Vertex still manufactures heavily in China—raising near-term supply-chain headaches.[00:15:08] Heavy Equipment & Industrials (p. 14)Caterpillar’s China plants become a liability, but Deere touts COVID-era playbooks that diversified its bolt-and-washer suppliers; Generac and TDG watch input costs but are structurally resilient.[00:16:10] Banks & Upstream Energy (pp. 13 – 11)JPMorgan, Goldman and Interactive Brokers often thrive on volatility; shale producers can throttle cap-ex if crude weakens; LNG policy quirks (cash penalties on Chinese-built tankers) add risk to exporters.[00:17:20] Retail Supply-Chain Stress Test (pp. 10 – 8)Empty shelves loom at Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s if Beijing throttles exports during the critical holiday-ordering window—port activity on the U.S. West Coast is already down sharply.[00:18:50] Payments & Telecoms (pp. 7 – 6)Visa, Mastercard and PayPal feel mild drag from lower travel spend, while Comcast, Charter, AT&T and Verizon are largely insulated.[00:19:11] Media & Advertising Dependence (p. 4)Netflix’s China footprint is tiny, but Meta’s U.S. ad buyers still rely on Chinese-made goods; a consumption slowdown could trim revenue despite Meta’s global scale.[00:20:06] Semiconductors & Diverging Tech Stacks (p. 3)Nvidia’s real China exposure remains opaque; decoupling may spur Huawei-led domestic GPU designs and alternative EUV lithography paths, while TSMC hedges with six advanced fabs plus a new R-and-D hub in Arizona.[00:26:33] Enterprise Software & Data Centers (p. 2)Broadcom’s hardware faces tariff risk; Oracle’s database business is sizable in China; Salesforce, ServiceNow and Snowflake are affected indirectly through data-center gear assembled in China.[00:27:36] Oakcliff Sailing Interlude (n/a)A quick update from the deck of the JB-66 en route to Oyster Bay showcases ongoing support for Oakcliff training programs.[00:28:22] Big Tech & E-Commerce Reality Check (p. 1)Apple’s high-end iPhones still rely on China’s skilled assembly lines, with India ramp-up years away. Amazon mirrors Walmart’s “empty-shelf, higher-cost” dilemma—your $10 USB-C cable may soon cost $15 if production reshoring proves pricey.[00:31:00] Closing & Next-Week Preview Hunt tees up a deeper dive on Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla valuations, jokes that New York has out-weathered San Diego lately, and sign

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses Tesla's robotaxi rollout, healthcare changes under the Trump administration, and Netflix's potential foray into sports streaming. They analyze the implications of these developments on their respective industries and explore future possibilities.[00:00:23] Intro Mike welcomes listeners to the Telltales podcast, where the hosts dive deep into energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:00:54] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt notes that ongoing discussions with Iran and Russia's willingness to extend the Easter truce reduce the likelihood of sanctions in the near term, leading to an oversupply of oil compared to demand. However, he believes Saudi Arabia will maintain discipline in the market to keep Iran happy.[00:03:45] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Hunt highlights the decline in natural gas prices for 2026 and the flatline in power demand, despite the industry's efficiency. LNG demand is expected to make up for the lack of growth in power demand.[00:05:21] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES The team discusses the challenges in reducing the deficit, with Doge's efforts to find waste and inefficiency falling short. They anticipate difficulties in achieving significant spending cuts under the Trump administration.[00:07:24] Tesla's Robotaxi Rollout (Page 1) Jason and Mike discuss Tesla's announcement of launching a 20-car robotaxi fleet in Austin, expressing disappointment in the small scale and the presence of drivers in the vehicles. They compare Tesla's approach to Waymo's autonomous vehicle program.[00:18:46] Oakcliff Sailing Dawn Riley provides an update on Oakcliff Sailing's activities, including boat preparations, events, and collaborations.[00:20:21] Healthcare News (Page 19) Jason discusses the FDA's plan to phase out petroleum-based food dyes, the importance of a healthier population in reducing healthcare costs, and the Trump administration's executive order addressing various aspects of the healthcare system, such as the "pill penalty," Medicaid accounting, and PBM transparency.[00:27:00] Netflix Earnings & Future of Sports Streaming (Page 4) The team analyzes Netflix's strong performance and its potential to venture into sports streaming. They discuss the challenges and opportunities for Netflix in acquiring sports content and the evolving landscape of sports media rights.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, providing insights into the future of transportation, healthcare reforms, and the streaming industry. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions on these subjects and their potential impact on investors.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this week’s Cash Flow Memo, the team examines the Fed’s market impact on tariffs, energy markets, and tech giants’ AI strategies. Hunt opens with Trump’s rapid tariff reversal amid bond auction jitters, then walks us through oil & gas supply/demand, U.S. budget dynamics, and the implications for AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META, Walmart, Uber & DoorDash. We also pause for a message from Oakcliff Sailing and close with healthcare, energy, and financial sector updates.00:00 Cold Open: Trump’s Tariff Retreat 00:40 Exhibit C – World Oil Supply/Demand Analysis 01:02 Exhibit B – U.S. Gas Demand/Supply Trends 03:08 Exhibit A – U.S. Government Revenues & Expenses 07:34 Page 1 – Apple’s AI & Tariff Headwinds 10:51 Page 1 – Microsoft Copilot Adoption 12:44 Page 3 – NVIDIA’s H20 Export Ban Fallout 14:30 Page 4 – Netflix & Meta FTC Testimony 17:41 Page 8 – Walmart vs. Amazon 4‑Hour Delivery 19:42 Page 20 – Uber & DoorDash Tariff Immunity 23:37 Sponsor Break: Oakcliff Sailing Update 25:16 Healthcare News: Eli Lilly & Food‑Additive Rules 27:33 Energy Updates (Pages 10–12) 32:14 Financials: Q1 Earnings for JPM, MS, GS, IBKR 35:17 Closing Remarks & Next Week’s Preview This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this abbreviated episode, Mike and Jason discuss the recent tariff issues between the US and China, their potential impact on the tech and healthcare industries, and the implications of NVIDIA's AI breakthroughs for data center efficiency. They also compare the resilience of Coca-Cola and NVIDIA as investments during a potential recession.[00:00:54] Intro The hosts explain the reason for the abbreviated episode due to recording issues and announce the focus on healthcare and tech topics.[00:01:50] Tariff 90-day Pause Mike and Jason discuss the recent 90-day pause in tariff implementation announced by Trump, noting that China was singled out among all global economies. They speculate on the potential national security implications and the US's dependence on China for critical supply chains.[00:03:55] Tariff Loopholes The hosts discuss a loophole in the tariffs, where landing a GPU in Canada or Mexico would qualify for a 0% tariff under the USMCA trade agreement. They question the effectiveness of the tariffs given the ease of circumvention.[00:04:44] Datacenter Capex Pullback? Mike and Jason discuss the potential impact of Microsoft canceling data center capacity and leases on the hyperscalers' CapEx spending. They consider the role of OpenAI's partnership with Oracle in this shift and the implications for NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300 demand.[00:07:36] Other Capex Announcements The hosts mention Google's reaffirmation of their $75 billion CapEx commitment and OpenAI's large funding round, suggesting that there are still willing buyers even if there is slack in GB200 demand.[00:07:59] Another 'DeepSeek' Moment, This Time from NVIDIA Mike and Jason discuss NVIDIA's announcement of optimizing Meta's Llama model to produce better reasoning than DeepSeek at half the size. They highlight the importance of software improvements alongside hardware advancements and the potential for Hopper servers to remain useful by running these optimized models.[00:11:34] Coke vs. NVIDIA The hosts compare the investment prospects of Coca-Cola and NVIDIA, both trading at similar earnings multiples, in the face of a potential recession. They discuss the risks to Coca-Cola's revenue from changes to the SNAP program and the growth potential of NVIDIA despite possible short-term challenges.[00:13:49] Healthcare News Jason shares updates on Vertex's Journavx pain treatment, noting its widespread availability in US pharmacies. He also mentions Trump's promise of major pharmaceutical tariffs, though the timeline remains uncertain given the 90-day tariff pause.The episode concludes with a reminder from Warren Buffett to embrace market downturns as opportunities to "eat more hamburgers while they're cheap."NVDA 0.00%↑ KO 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team dives deep into healthcare investing with a focus on Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Lantheus Holdings. They also discuss Apple's AI challenges, the complexities of secure government communication, and the outlook for energy markets in light of geopolitical uncertainties and the hunt for federal spending cuts.[00:00:00] Intro Mike welcomes listeners to the Telltales podcast, where the hosts bring the weekly Cash Flow Memo to dive deep into energy, technology, and healthcare investing.[00:00:38] Exhibit C: World Oil supply and demand (Page 1) Hunt discusses the uncertainty around Russian sanctions and Iran's oil production, noting that the oversupply of oil is not likely to be reduced by sanctions alone.[00:01:44] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Page 1) Hunt highlights the increase in LNG demand by 1.5-2 Bcf/d, driven by faster-than-expected capacity ramp-ups at Venture Global's Plaquemines Parish and Cheniere's Corpus Christi projects. Gas prices for 2025 and 2026 are projected at $4.40.[00:02:47] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Page 1) The team discusses the challenges of finding $500 billion in spending cuts as the House moves to increase the debt ceiling. Actual work on reducing spending from $6-7 trillion will likely be delayed until the 12 expenditure bills are addressed.[00:03:45] Apple's AI Struggles (Page 1) Jason and Mike analyze Apple's challenges in developing a generative AI version of Siri, with a potential release not expected until 2027. They discuss the company's leadership changes, software issues, and the complexities of creating a secure, AI-powered virtual assistant.[00:10:10] Security, Signal App, and Government Communication The hosts explore the challenges of secure communication for government officials, discussing the limitations of traditional secure facilities (SCIFs) and the adoption of apps like Signal. They also touch on the trade-offs between transparency and the quality of decision-making in large organizations.[00:18:54] Healthcare Updates Hunt introduces a discussion on healthcare investing, focusing on Lantheus and Vertex Pharmaceuticals as quality businesses with strong cash flows, despite potential risks from reduced Medicare and Medicaid spending.[00:20:12] Company Analysis: Vertex Pharmaceuticals Mike dives into Vertex Pharmaceuticals, discussing the company's unique history, its successful pivot to cystic fibrosis treatments, and its promising pipeline in non-opioid pain management. He emphasizes the importance of investing in companies with strong capital allocation and long-term growth potential.[00:25:45] Company Analysis: Lantheus Holdings Jason explains Lantheus Holdings' business in radio diagnostics for prostate cancer imaging. While current growth has stalled due to market saturation, he highlights the potential for increased demand driven by new radiopharmaceutical treatments and the company's optionality in Alzheimer's diagnostics.[00:28:57] Vertex Pharmaceuticals Diabetes Moonshot Discussion The team discusses Vertex's early-stage but promising type 1 diabetes treatment, which has been accelerated from phase 1 to phase 3 trials. They emphasize the importance of investing in companies with strong core businesses and considering pipeline programs as optionality.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, providing valuable insights into healthcare, technology, and energy investing. Tune in next week for more in-depth discussions, starting with a deeper dive into healthcare companies like Vertex, Lantheus, and Harrow.VRTX 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in energy, technology, and healthcare. They analyze the potential impact of a second Trump term on oil and gas markets, dive into Nvidia's AI dominance and the future of inferencing, and explore Tesla's challenges and opportunities in the evolving EV landscape.[00:00:55] Energy Market & Oil Supply Discussion (Exhibit C) Hunt believes that oil supply is unlikely to change based on the recent Putin-Trump phone call. He suggests that the US Treasury may curtail some Russian production and discusses the potential for conflict between Israel and Iran, which could tighten the oil market.[00:03:40] Natural Gas and LNG Update (Exhibit B) Hunt notes that natural gas demand is good, and LNG facilities are being approved under the Trump administration. He highlights the increase in power demand for natural gas and the potential for further growth in LNG exports.[00:06:54] US Government Fiscal Policy & Budget Outlook (Exhibit A) Hunt discusses the challenges of reducing government spending and the deficit, particularly in the "all other" category. He emphasizes the need for the Trump administration to propose a budget with significant spending cuts and hopes for economic growth to lower the debt-to-GNP ratio.[00:10:28] 2 Podcast Recommendations Mike recommends an interview with Scott Bessent on the All In Podcast, which covers the administration's plans for tariffs and their agenda. Hunt suggests listening to a three-hour podcast interview with Morris Chang, the founder of Taiwan Semiconductor, for those interested in the tech industry.[00:14:02] Tesla and EV Market Developments Jason discusses the challenges facing Tesla, including public backlash, declining sales in China, and competition from BYD's fast-charging technology. Mike mentions that Tesla has obtained a permit for testing their robotaxis in California, which could signal progress in their self-driving technology.[00:17:35] Healthcare Earnings and Drug Developments Jason provides an update on Harrow's preliminary earnings and the market's positive reaction, despite the delayed release of their 10-K. Mike highlights the potential of Harrow's Triessence drug and its patent protection through 2029.[00:22:00] Technology Update: Nvidia Investor Day & AI Inferencing Jason and Mike discuss the key takeaways from Nvidia's Investor Day, focusing on the company's advancements in AI inferencing, power efficiency, and data center optimization. They explore Nvidia's competitive position against hyperscalers like Google and AWS, and the potential impact of their new Blackwell chips.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, providing insights into the latest developments and potential future trends in energy, technology, and healthcare. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions and analysis.NVDA 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ HROW 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

ShownotesIn this episode, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence cover the latest in energy, technology, healthcare, and updates on U.S. fiscal policy. The conversation explores recent developments in semiconductor manufacturing, natural gas and oil markets, and innovative breakthroughs in gene sequencing.[00:00] IntroMike introduces the episode and highlights key discussion topics including energy, technology, and healthcare. He reminds listeners to download the accompanying memo for detailed financial data and analysis.[00:43] World Oil Supply & Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt discusses recent adjustments in oil supply from Russia and Saudi Arabia, noting increased global surplus and largely stagnant demand. Despite speculation about China, actual demand growth is minimal. Geopolitical factors involving Russia and Iran suggest uncertainty, potentially pointing to flat or declining oil prices ahead.[02:10] US Gas Demand & Supply Outlook (Exhibit B)Natural gas production is increasing significantly, supported by robust LNG facilities coming online. Although there’s significant public discussion about power demand driven by data centers, actual demand growth remains steady, tracking closely with previous years’ growth patterns.[03:16] US Government Revenues and Expenses (Exhibit A)A continuing resolution passed in the House faces a contentious path in the Senate, involving potential filibuster drama. Speaker Michael Johnson pledges to pass all 12 expenditure bills by July, a significant change from recent fiscal practices. Discussions highlight the challenges and necessity of reducing the deficit primarily through spending cuts in defense, social security, and Medicaid.[06:46] TSMC and Intel’s Potential Fab Deal (Page 3)The team explores Intel’s rumored deal to sell fab capacity to TSMC and major chip companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom. They analyze strategic considerations, antitrust concerns, and geopolitical implications, highlighting both companies’ massive investments in Arizona facilities and their significance for U.S. strategic interests.[21:41] AI Developments and OpenAI’s New API (Page 1)Mike reviews recent AI news, including OpenAI’s release of a new API for developers, enhancing the integration of AI into products. Apple’s delays in AI advancements contrast starkly with competitors actively pursuing AI-focused smartphones, including ventures by Perplexity and Johnny Ive in partnership with Sam Altman.[24:46] Healthcare Innovations: Roche and Gene Sequencing (Page 15)Jason details Roche’s recent breakthrough in gene sequencing technology, potentially lowering costs significantly compared to current methods like those from Illumina and PAC Bio. Roche’s innovation promises affordable sequencing with improved accuracy, signaling broader adoption and accessibility for genomic sequencing technologies.[29:47] RFK Jr.’s FDA Reforms and Healthcare Updates (Page 15, 19, 20)The episode covers Robert F. Kennedy Jr.‘s reforms within the FDA, aimed at increasing scrutiny on non-natural substances in food. Vertex Pharmaceuticals also receives attention, with recent authorization to sell its new medicine, supported by OptumRx’s involvement in hospital distribution plans.The episode wraps up with brief insights on Tesla’s reduced reliance on the Memphis GPU cluster in favor of its own Cortex One data center.Join us next week for more detailed discussions on Tesla’s strategies and other major industry movements. Don’t forget to subscribe and download the memo to stay informed!INTC 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ AVGO 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ MRNA 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ BNTX 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00] IntroThe episode kicks off with Hunt teasing Tesla’s potential for a step change via autonomous driving, followed by Mike’s welcome to the Telltales podcast and an overview of the Cash Flow Memo. Key points include the focus on energy, tech, and healthcare, with a disclaimer about the informational nature of the discussion. The hosts set the stage for a 30-minute deep dive into macroeconomic trends and investment ideas.[00:41] World Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt analyzes the 2025 oil supply and demand outlook, noting potential shifts due to U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran, alongside OPEC+’s planned production increase of 130-140,000 barrels per day starting April 1. He highlights a weak demand picture—up only 1 million barrels daily from 2024 to 2025—and speculates that lifting sanctions could lead to a surplus and lower oil prices. Key stat: Russia and Iran are curtailed by 600,000 and 800,000 barrels, respectively, in current estimates. The discussion underscores the speculative nature of these forecasts, with a likely hold on current projections for another week.[03:01] US Gas Demand and Supply (Exhibit B)The focus shifts to U.S. natural gas, where cold weather has boosted demand, but dry gas production is already at 105.5 Bcf/day, potentially rising further. Hunt notes LNG feed gas increases might offset this, with futures prices at $4 for 2025 and 2026—up from $2.40 in 2024—though he suggests $3.50 as a more realistic estimate. This segment highlights the delicate balance between production and price stability in the gas market.[03:41] US Government Revenues and Expenses (Exhibit A)Hunt discusses the fiscal situation, referencing the President’s address on waste and fraud but skepticism about spending cuts. He flags March 12 as a deadline for a continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown, doubting bipartisan support in the House. Key insight: Balancing the budget may hinge on Republican unity, a daunting task given political divides. Jason adds a critical view of the address’s professionalism.[04:47] Step Changes: Defining the Concept (Page 3)The hosts introduce “step changes”—dramatic revenue leaps like NVIDIA’s from under $10 billion to $130 billion annually—positioning it as a key investment strategy amid macro uncertainty. Hunt questions whether NVIDIA’s $3 trillion valuation can double again (unlikely), and explores Intel as a long-shot candidate. The discussion emphasizes finding companies with exponential growth potential in a volatile market.[06:48] Step Changes: NVIDIA 2016-2025 (Page 3)Mike reflects on NVIDIA’s rise from $6 billion to $130 billion in revenue, attributing it to early GPU adoption beyond gaming. He stresses buying at a fair price and holding long-term as a winning strategy, cautioning against overvaluation risks. This segment underscores the importance of timing and valuation in capturing step-change opportunities.[07:41] Step Changes: Level 5 Self-Driving (Page 1)Hunt pivots to Tesla, suggesting autonomous driving—not car sales—could drive a step change, despite softening demand in Germany and China. Jason and Mike explore the revenue potential of retrofitting 5-6 million Teslas for ride-sharing, estimating cash flows if costs drop to 25 cents per mile, though regulatory hurdles loom large. Key quote: “It’s inevitable that people are going to be using self-driving cars” (Mike). The trio debates whether Tesla could match Uber’s $40 billion revenue run rate with higher margins, projecting $20 billion in free cash flow by 2028.[19:03] Step Changes: Netflix, Meta, & Spotify (Page 4)Hunt previews next week’s focus on Netflix’s $9 billion free cash flow leap, Spotify’s $1.5 billion shift via AI-generated content, and Meta’s recovery from a $150 stock low to nearly $700. Mike explains Netflix’s post-COVID cash flow surge from scaled-back spending, while Jason notes Spotify’s royalty challenges. This segment teases broader step-change examples beyond tech hardware.[23:17] Oakcliff Update Dawn from Oakcliff Sailing provides a brief interlude, updating listeners on a foiling camp in Pensacola and an April 5 art show, encouraging newsletter sign-ups at oakcliffsailing.org. This break offers a community touchpoint amid the investment focus.[24:27] DOGE & Medicare/Medicaid (Exhibit A)Jason tackles healthcare, citing a proposed $880 billion Medicaid cut over 10 years and $210 billion in unnecessary care plus $100 billion in fraud annually (2019 data). He suggests modern tech, like banking’s fraud detection, could offset cuts without slashing services, spotlighting Marty McCary’s FDA nomination focus on waste. Hunt ties this to Exhibit A, noting healthcare’s $1.8 trillion share of federal spending demands reform.[28:48] Can DOGE Balance the Budget? (Exhibit A)Hunt questions whether the DOGE initiative can close the $2 trillion deficit gap (revenue $5 trillion, spending $7 trillion), with debt at $37 trillion exceeding GNP ($30 trillion). Defense ($900 bill

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Donald Trump's 2024 election victory on energy, healthcare, technology, and the broader economy. They analyze key exhibits, dive into company-specific news, and explore the potential impacts of policy changes.[00:00:59] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects a Trump administration deal with China to tighten the oil market surplus in 2025 by phasing out Iranian barrels. Despite predictions of peak oil demand, the IEA still forecasts an increase in 2025 versus 2024.[00:03:06] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Hunt anticipates better natural gas demand under Trump, with power demand outperforming LNG. He believes the administration will lift the hold on new LNG projects and combined cycle plants, leading to stronger demand growth. However, a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine could lead to Europe resuming Russian gas imports, potentially impacting US LNG prices.[00:06:02] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt emphasizes the need to reduce the deficit in "all other" expenses and hopes Elon Musk will help save $200-300 billion. The goal is to get the deficit trend moving downward and lower the debt-to-GNP ratio through economic growth. The team also discusses Trump's proposed "golden visa" program as a potential revenue generator.[00:09:35] Healthcare Updates (Pages 15-16) Jason discusses Celsius's acquisition of Alani Nu, a move to buy growth in the energy drink market. Lantheus reports strong earnings, with the market recognizing the value of their diagnostics business. The team also touches on Vertex's non-opioid painkillers and their commercialization efforts.[00:12:04] Executive Order on Healthcare Price Transparency The team analyzes Trump's executive order mandating hospital price transparency, which aims to enforce the previously unenforced order from his first term. Jason explains the importance of price transparency in healthcare and the potential savings it could generate in the Medicare and Medicaid lines of the federal budget.[00:19:25] Will AI be 'Winner take all?' Discussing Microsoft CEO's statement that large language models will not be winner-take-all, Jason and Mike argue that the underlying data, not the models themselves, will be the key differentiator. They also discuss the importance of inferencing infrastructure and the potential for NVIDIA to benefit from the AI arms race.[00:25:26] Chip Export Controls (Page 3) The team discusses the potential impact of chip export controls on NVIDIA and the lack of significant competition from other players in the GPU market.[00:28:22] Tesla sales drop 45% in Europe (Page 1) Mike notes Elon Musk's unpopularity in Europe due to his support of the far-right party in Germany, which has led to a significant drop in Tesla sales. However, Jason highlights Tesla's innovations in injection-molded panels, which could dramatically reduce production costs.[00:29:33] Nvidia v. Tesla (Page 1) In the final segment, the team compares the investment potential of NVIDIA and Tesla at a hypothetical price of $150 per share. They discuss the advantages of each company and their potential for sustained growth and innovation.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics related to the 2024 election outcome, providing insights and analysis on the potential impacts across various industries. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions on energy, healthcare, technology, and the economy in future episodes.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week the Telltales Podcast dives into critical cash flow insights, spanning volatile oil and gas markets, U.S. government spending debates, and the disruptive potential of Tesla, NVIDIA, and healthcare innovators. Hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence unpack the numbers and trends shaping investment opportunities as of February 19, 2025.[00:00] Intro The episode kicks off with a teaser about autonomous driving’s future in the U.S., followed by Mike Nicoletti’s welcome to Telltales, introducing the Cash Flow Memo available at telltales.us. The hosts set the stage for a 30-minute deep dive into energy, technology, and healthcare, urging listeners to download the memo and follow along.[00:50] World Oil Supply / Demand (Memo Exhibit C)Hunt analyzes a modified Exhibit C, factoring in sanctions on Russia and Iran that erase the oil surplus, dropping supply to 1.2 million barrels daily under Saudi Arabia’s 9.5 million barrel production cap. He highlights the volatility, noting oil prices could swing from $50 to $80 depending on sanction outcomes, with skepticism about Saudi’s claimed 12 million barrel capacity. This segment underscores how geopolitical shifts could drastically impact energy investments.[03:03] US Gas Demand / Supply (Memo Exhibit B)Focusing on natural gas, Hunt notes U.S. dry gas production hitting 105 billion cubic feet (Bcf) daily, with slight increases in Canadian imports and residential demand (up to 25.5 Bcf due to a harsh winter). LNG feed gas holds steady at 14.5 Bcf, while power generation demand has surged 7 Bcf over five years, hinting at future growth tied to data centers. The discussion forecasts potential shifts in gas demand patterns as technology evolves.[04:18] US Gov’t Revenues and Expenses (Memo Exhibit A)Hunt explores proposed spending cuts of $600 billion to $1 trillion, targeting areas like Medicaid and defense (running at $900 billion), while revenues are expected to exceed $5 trillion in 2025. Jason and Mike discuss early Doge-inspired cuts, like terminating probationary federal employees, rolling government size back to 2023 levels. The Treasury Secretary’s focus on the 10-year rate as a fiscal target adds a fresh perspective to monetary policy debates.[07:59] The Most Interesting Companies, Regardless of Valuation (Memo Pages 1-3)Tesla and NVIDIA emerge as the episode’s standout companies, with Hunt praising Tesla’s $36 billion cash pile and $2 billion free cash flow, despite its trillion-dollar valuation, and NVIDIA’s $70 billion free cash flow at a $3 trillion market cap. Mike and Jason project NVIDIA’s revenue could hit $180-$200 billion in 2025, driven by hyperscaler CapEx, while Tesla’s autonomous driving potential sparks debate about its growth trajectory. This segment highlights their disruptive potential, valuation aside.[15:32] Meta’s 30k Miles of Fiber (Memo Page 4)Meta’s plan to lay 30,000 miles of fiber, skirting global hotspots like the South China Sea, signals massive data center expansion, potentially in India, boosting NVIDIA’s GPU demand. Mike and Jason see this as a backbone upgrade to ease infrastructure bottlenecks, reinforcing AI and tech growth trends. The discussion ties Meta’s move to broader tech investment themes.[17:41] Tesla and the Impact of FSD / Robotaxi (Memo Page 1)Jason weighs Tesla’s push into utility-scale batteries (e.g., 200 MW in Memphis) and full self-driving (FSD), questioning battery fire risks but seeing FSD as a high-margin game-changer, possibly via subscriptions. Mike highlights Tesla’s scale economies, offering Model 3 leases at $250/month while banking on software margins. The hosts debate if Tesla could hit $10 billion in free cash flow by 2028, with FSD as a key driver.[23:55] What % of Cars Sold in US Will Have Autonomous Driving Ability? (Memo Page 1)Hunt poses a provocative question: by 2027-28, what share of the 15 million U.S. cars sold annually will feature autonomous driving? Mike predicts it’ll hinge on Tesla’s output, suggesting it could become “table stakes” as insurance costs favor self-driving cars, while Jason cautions that legacy automakers like GM may lag into the 2030s due to slow production cycles. The segment explores a potential winner-take-all market.[26:39] Healthcare Updates: RFK Jr Impact! Jason and Mike laud the “Make America Healthy Again” executive order, which probes why Americans are sicker—citing 18% of 18-year-olds with fatty liver disease—linking it to food supply issues like microplastics and ultra-processed foods. They highlight its focus on SSRIs’ rise in youth and long-term side effects, alongside emerging alternatives like ketamine-based treatments from Janssen and Axsome. The discussion frames this as a root-cause approach to healthcare costs, with data-sharing reforms on the horizon.Tune in next week for more on Tesla, NVIDIA, and healthcare innovations—download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us to stay ahead of the curve!This podcast and the information

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the potential impacts of the Trump administration on energy markets, media consumption, and the healthcare industry. They analyze key exhibits, dive into company-specific news, and share insights on the shifting landscape of these sectors.[00:00:33] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Hunt expects Iran's oil production to decrease under the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" policy. He also discusses the challenges in reaching a deal between Ukraine and Russia, which could impact Russia's oil exports. The tightening of the oil market could lead to a wider price range, with the potential for oil to trade up to $80 or down to $50.[00:04:55] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply Hunt highlights the increasing demand for natural gas in power generation, outpacing the growth in LNG exports. However, he cautions that the surplus in natural gas supply could keep prices low, especially if production from the Permian Basin continues to grow. He advises investors to be cautious when considering upstream gas companies.[00:07:36] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses Hunt discusses the challenges the Trump administration faces in reaching a budget deal by March 14th and managing the debt ceiling. He suggests that investors consider holding cash reserves through this period due to the potential for capital market disruptions.[00:10:02] Where do you get your News? The Changing Digital Landscape. The team explores the shifting landscape of news consumption, with digital platforms like Twitter and X becoming increasingly important sources of information. They discuss the challenges traditional media faces in maintaining credibility and the role of advertising in shaping content. The conversation also touches on the importance of fact-checking and consuming content from diverse perspectives to avoid echo chambers.[00:15:32] Streaming Wars: Netflix, Disney, and the Future of Entertainment (Page 4) The team analyzes the strategies of Netflix and Disney in the streaming market, discussing the potential for Disney to expand its offerings to include sports and news. They also examine Netflix's success in generating free cash flow and its shift towards emphasizing revenue growth and profitability. The conversation explores the future of content delivery and the importance of matching content with the most effective delivery mechanisms.[00:22:42] Healthcare News: Vertex, Pfizer, and Lantheus (Page 15) Jason provides an update on Vertex Pharmaceuticals, highlighting its strong sales growth and the potential for new approvals to drive further expansion. The team also discusses the leaked data from a Pfizer prostate cancer treatment study and its implications for Lantheus, a company that provides imaging diagnostics for monitoring disease progression and treatment effectiveness.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, offering valuable insights into the complex dynamics shaping the energy, media, and healthcare industries. As investors navigate these shifting tides, staying informed and adaptable will be key to making sound investment decisions.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, Hunt and Jason discuss the implications of a potential second Trump term on the energy sector, Elon Musk's efforts to reduce federal spending, and the recent approval of Vertex's non-opioid pain drug. They also delve into the latest earnings reports from major tech companies and the advancements in autonomous driving technology.[00:00:46] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt anticipates that Trump's policies, including sanctions on Iran and Russia, could tighten the global oil market surplus in 2025. He expects Iranian exports to drop to zero and Russian production to decline by 1 million barrels per day.[00:02:18] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Hunt discusses the positive impact of weather on natural gas demand and the potential for increased production. He highlights the steady growth in power demand and the expansion of LNG exports, which could be further supported by a Trump administration.[00:03:38] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt and Jason analyze Elon Musk's efforts to reduce federal spending, targeting cuts in Medicaid and other discretionary programs. They believe Musk's team could potentially trim $500 billion from the 2025 budget, although challenges and opposition are expected.[00:07:11] Apple Earnings (Page 1) Jason notes that Apple experienced a 5% decline in iPhone sales during the holiday season, falling short of expectations for a super cycle. He attributes the slowdown to weak demand in China and suggests that Apple may need to integrate AI features to remain competitive.[00:09:20] Tesla Earnings (Page 1) Despite a disappointing quarter, Jason points out that Tesla's stock rallied on Elon Musk's optimism about the rollout of robo-taxis. He believes investors are focusing on the company's future potential rather than short-term setbacks.[00:10:08] How does FSD handle surprises like a kid running into the street after a ball? (Page 1) Jason provides a detailed explanation of how Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system learns from real-world driving data to handle unexpected situations, such as a child running into the street. He contrasts Tesla's approach with Waymo's more expensive and sensor-heavy system.[00:14:19] Insurance on cars with FSD (Page 1) Hunt and Jason discuss the potential for Tesla to offer insurance for FSD-equipped vehicles, either independently or through partnerships. They believe that Tesla aims to demonstrate the safety benefits of FSD and offer competitive premiums.[00:15:24] FSD Regulation (Page 1) The hosts explore the regulatory landscape for autonomous driving, noting that Waymo has obtained approval in several cities. They speculate that Elon Musk may leverage his connections to push for federal-level regulations to streamline the process.[00:16:19] Tesla FSD vs Waymo (Page 1) Jason compares the cost and technological differences between Tesla's FSD and Waymo's autonomous driving systems. He highlights Tesla's camera-based approach as more cost-effective than Waymo's expensive sensor suite, which could impact the profitability of robo-taxi services.[00:18:36] Will Tesla partner with Uber & Lift, or build out their own Rideshare Network for Robotaxi? (Page 20, 1) Hunt and Jason consider whether Tesla will collaborate with ride-hailing companies like Uber and Lyft or develop its own network for robo-taxis. They note that Uber is currently partnering with Waymo and may be open to working with other autonomous vehicle makers.[00:19:28] Vertex Pain Drug Approval & Process Power (Page 15) Jason discusses the recent FDA approval of Vertex's non-opioid pain drug, Jernavix, and its potential to address the opioid crisis. He highlights the significant economic impact of opioid addiction and suggests that subsidizing Jernavix could yield substantial societal benefits.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, from the potential impacts of a second Trump term on the energy sector to the latest advancements in autonomous driving technology and the approval of a groundbreaking non-opioid pain medication. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions on the trends shaping the future of energy, technology, and healthcare.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the potential impacts of the Trump administration's energy policies, the game-changing AI innovations from China's DeepSeek, and key updates from healthcare companies like Vertex, Lantheus, and BioNTech.[00:00:52] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt believes a deal with Iran under the Trump administration could tighten the oil market surplus. He expects OPEC countries to increase production, potentially leading to lower oil prices and a flattening of U.S. oil production growth.[00:04:44] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY The cold weather has reduced the natural gas storage surplus, but Hunt warns that production could increase, especially from the Permian Basin. He anticipates power demand for natural gas to continue growing but cautions that prices may not sustain at current levels.[00:07:53] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt discusses the challenges of raising the debt ceiling without spending cuts. He speculates that the Trump administration might withhold funds from programs like Medicaid to force a resolution, potentially causing disruptions in the capital markets.[00:10:03] DeepSeek and demand for Nvidia GPUs Jason and Mike analyze the implications of DeepSeek's AI advancements, which achieved impressive results with fewer resources. They discuss the potential impact on Nvidia's GPU demand, the role of reasoning models, and the incentives driving different companies' approaches to AI development.[00:29:30] OAKCLIFF UPDATE In this sponsored segment, Mike provides an update on the work being done at Oakcliff Sailing, including preparing match boats and repairing sails.[00:30:17] Lantheus Acquisition Jason discusses Lantheus' recent acquisition of a radiopharmacy in New Jersey, likely aimed at expanding their manufacturing capabilities and presence in Europe.Stay tuned for more insights on energy, AI, and healthcare as the Telltales team continues to navigate the ever-changing landscape of investments and technology.NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ BNTX 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ MRNA 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this special edition of the Telltales podcast, the team continues "Cashflow Pick'em" from week 2502, selecting companies on memo pages 14-20 that they believe will grow their cashflow the most in the coming year. They also discuss the impact of Trump's first days in office on various industries and the competitive landscape in artificial intelligence.[00:01:02] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects Russian and Iranian oil production to decrease in the coming months due to shipping restrictions and sanctions, leading to a tighter oil market and improved prices. However, a deal in Ukraine or lifted sanctions on Iran could cause prices to drop significantly.[00:03:51] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Natural gas has benefited from cold weather, but supply remains a concern. Hunt emphasizes the importance of dry gas production increasing once temperatures warm up.[00:04:18] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt anticipates a significant bill that will include expense reductions and the elimination of various tax credits to keep the Freedom Caucus on board. He believes this will be a major focus in the coming months.[00:05:53] Cashflow Pick'em 2025 Part 2 (Pages 14-20) The Telltales team and AI models make their picks for companies they believe will have the biggest increase in free cash flow over the next 12 months. They discuss their reasoning and analyze the potential of each company.[00:22:42] Trump Executive Order Impacts The team examines the impact of Trump's executive orders and press conference on the companies they follow. Hunt believes natural gas will benefit from increased LNG terminals and the need for reliable power in the near term. Mike and Jason discuss the competitive landscape in AI, focusing on OpenAI's position and the challenges they face.Stay tuned for more insights and analysis from the Telltales team as they navigate the ever-changing landscape of energy, healthcare, and technology.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00:50] World Oil Supply and DemandHunt shares insights on Russia’s oil production outlook amid sanctions.Potential impact of geopolitical developments on global oil prices.Why WTI prices might swing between the mid-50s to high-70s.[00:03:03] US Gas Demand/SupplyOverview of cold-weather impacts and freeze-offs on natural gas production.Discussion on LNG export growth.[00:04:07] Macro UpdateGovernment spending, potential trillion-dollar cuts, and debt-limit strategies.How a lower U.S. deficit could stabilize long-term interest rates.[00:07:09] JP Morgan Healthcare Conference UpdateNotable deals.Discussion on RFK Jr.’s potential policy impact on pharma regulations.Highlights for companies like Moderna, Eli Lilly, Vertex, Lantheus, and Harrow.[00:13:02] Turning GPUs into CashflowHunt and Mike on the hyperscalers’ (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Apple) AI investments.How these companies might generate returns from AI, cloud services, and large-scale GPU deployments.[00:19:29] Who Wins Among the Hyperscalers?Jason’s take: Microsoft’s enterprise edge vs. Meta’s massive user base.[00:22:01] Apple’s Software ChallengeWhy Siri lags behind other AI assistants.Could a full-fledged AI agent in iOS spark the next iPhone supercycle?[00:23:48] Salesforce vs. MicrosoftMarc Benioff’s vision of beating Microsoft in AI-driven CRM.Are enterprises ready to switch from Microsoft Dynamics to Salesforce?[00:26:09] Oakcliff Sailing UpdateSpecial message from Dawn Riley about collaboration and support for sailing athletes and organizations across the U.S.[00:31:27] Don’t Bet Against Musk: Tesla, xAI, and the Future of XJason’s overview of how Tesla’s massive video data set might lead to a game-changing self-driving solution.The broader societal impact if cars reach Level 5 autonomy—what happens to parking garages, urban planning, etc.?[00:34:51] Closing RemarksNVDA 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ JNJ 0.00%↑ GSK 0.00%↑ SNY 0.00%↑ MRNA 0.00%↑ LLY 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ HROW 0.00%↑ ORCL 0.00%↑ CRM 0.00%↑This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00:00]Introduction (Pages 1–13)Mike, Jason, and Hunt open the show by outlining their plan to assess which companies covered in the memo are poised for the highest percentage increase in free cashflow by 2025. They highlight that overall cashflow growth—not just revenue—drives long-term valuations, and they set up the structure for this year’s “Cashflow Pick’em” challenge.[00:00:48]Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Hunt reviews the current oil market landscape, pointing out that cold weather in the Northeast is boosting heating oil and natural gas businesses. He emphasizes strong global demand estimates but notes supply-side uncertainty, especially regarding Iranian sanctions and potential U.S. foreign-policy shifts. The segment ends with advice to hold existing oil positions but remain cautious about starting new ones.[00:02:59]Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply Hunt discusses the challenges in natural gas demand forecasts, especially with liquefied natural gas (LNG) project delays and power-generation trends. He notes that power demand for gas has grown steadily, even outpacing LNG growth in the short term. While the long-term LNG story remains attractive, near-term pricing could be volatile.[00:04:44]Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses Hunt walks through the latest update on U.S. government finances, highlighting potential budget negotiations tied to the debt ceiling. He predicts at least 500 billion in spending cuts emerging from reconciliation legislation, possibly touching defense and healthcare programs. The hosts discuss how this may create market volatility, suggesting investors keep some cash on the sidelines.[00:07:50]Cashflow Pick’em 2025 (Pages 1–13)Mike, Jason, and Hunt begin their page-by-page look at which companies could see the highest percentage growth in free cashflow. They compare their picks with AI models’ predictions from Grok and Perplexity. This segment covers tech (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, TSLA), software (CRM, NOW, SNOW, ORCL, AVGO), semiconductors (NVDA, AMD, INTC, TSM, ASML), entertainment (NFLX, DIS, META, SPOT), communications (CHTR, CMCSA, T, VZ, TMUS), payments (MA, V, PYPL), retail (WMT, TGT, LOW, HD, KMX), oil majors (XOM, CVX, COP, OXY, LNG), midstream (KMI, EPD, ET, WES, OKE), E&P (EOG, MGY, PR, FANG), natural gas (AR, EQT, CHK, AM), and banks (JPM, MS, GS, IBKR). They wrap with plans to continue the remaining pages in the next episode.[00:23:50]Special Break – Oakcliff Sailing A short break features Dawn Riley discussing Oakcliff Sailing’s upcoming tour. She explains how the organization aims to collaborate with sailing communities across the nation, sharing best practices for training, funding, and event hosting.[00:29:07]Healthcare Updates Jason updates listeners on Vertex’s recent clinical trial results, clarifying that setbacks in nerve pain do not necessarily affect its acute pain applications. They also touch on Lantheus, Harrow, and the ongoing debate over GLP-1 supply, compounding pharmacies, and patents. Finally, they consider whether new policy under RFK Jr. might promote broader transparency in healthcare data.[00:33:30]Can $200B be Trimmed from Medicare? (Exhibit A & Healthcare)Mike and Jason debate the feasibility of cutting significant costs from Medicare and Medicaid without reducing vital healthcare supply. They note that administrative overhead and inefficiencies might be the first area to tackle. The conversation tees up more detailed policy discussions for the next episode.[00:36:01]ConclusionHunt signs off by reminding listeners that cold weather can be a silver lining for those invested in fossil fuel companies. Mike underscores the importance of doing your own research, and the hosts promise deeper dives in upcoming episodes. Don’t forget to subscribe, download the memo, and join them next week for more pages and more picks!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESEpisode OverviewIn this special edition of the Cash Flow Memo, hosts Mike, Jason, and Hunt look back on their “12 Surprises” from last year—unconventional predictions with high potential impact—and discuss which came true and which missed the mark. Then they unveil fresh predictions for 2025, ranging from nuclear fusion milestones and AI-driven health breakthroughs to geopolitical events and government spending cuts.Revisiting the 12 Surprises of Last Year[00:01:01] 1. Saudi Arabia Shifts to Market Share ProductionHunt recaps his 2024 expectation that Saudi Arabia would ramp up production to maintain/expand market share.Outcome: The Saudis did not pivot to a “market share” strategy. Instead, OPEC+ postponed some production increases, partly due to uncertainties around Iran sanctions.2025 Outlook: Market-share-driven strategy remains unlikely unless geopolitical circumstances change (e.g., renewed Iran sanctions).[00:02:09] 2. Biden Administration Blocks New LNG ProjectsHunt notes the prediction that the current administration would impede further Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) development.Outcome: Yes, the Biden administration blocked the development of new LNG export projects.Future Scenario: A potential Trump administration could remove constraints.[00:02:20] 3. The Federal Reserve Comes to the RescuePrediction was for a major market disruption prompting an urgent Fed intervention.Outcome: No major crisis materialized in 2024 requiring such a rescue.[00:02:30] 4. A Treasury Bond Auction FailsHunt speculated that a failed auction might occur if interest rates soared.Outcome: No actual failure took place, but the 10-year yield continued climbing.2025 Outlook: Hunt expects 10-year yields to remain high (potentially in the 5.10–5.20% range), even if the Fed cuts rates.[00:03:59] 5. Apple Blocked from Paying Google for Default SearchHunt & Mike discuss how the DOJ’s antitrust case could end Google’s multi-billion-dollar deal with Apple.Outcome: Not yet resolved, but constraints on Google-Apple payments appear more plausible now.Jason suggests Microsoft focuses on AI-powered (e.g., ChatGPT-like) search instead of paying for default status.Mike’s Note: Apple’s revenue hit might be mitigated if a “universal” revenue-share approach replaces the exclusive deal.[00:11:00] 6. Apple Implements Edge AI ModelsJason predicted the iPhone 16 would feature on-device language models (improving Siri).Outcome: Hardware can support local AI, but software/OS-level support lags behind.2025 Outlook: Apple may open APIs for third-party developers, potentially boosting Apple’s competitive position—if done well.[00:12:57] 7. Voice Control for Tesla VehiclesJason predicted Tesla would enhance its built-in voice assistant.Outcome: Tesla released updates enabling voice commands for trunk/frunk and other controls.2025 Outlook: Further expansion likely, especially if Tesla’s “steering wheel-less” robo-taxis launch.[00:13:58] 8. U.S. Implements a National Framework for Autonomous DrivingJason & Mike consider how state vs. federal oversight might evolve.Outcome: No sweeping national framework in 2024, but talk of federal mandates (especially if the administration changes) remains.Discussion also touches on regulation for emerging personal “air taxi”/drone transport.[00:15:33] 9. Tepid Uptake of AI Leading to Overbuilt Data CentersMike describes how Big Tech has poured billions into AI infrastructure.Outcome: AI usage (e.g., ChatGPT, generative AI tools) is growing, but monetization still lags behind the hype.Tech companies remain optimistic about future revenue offsetting current massive spending.[00:16:15] 10. A Drug Designed with AI Gets FDA ApprovalHunt & Jason note that AI is prevalent in drug discovery (protein folding, molecular design).Outcome: While many drugs are in the pipeline, no major “AI-only” drug with a clear direct link has been approved yet.The line is blurry because most modern R&D integrates AI at some level.[00:17:41] 11. Generative AI Replaces InfluencersHunt questions whether top influencers (e.g., Elon Musk) could be supplanted by AI.Outcome: Real-world, high-profile personalities remain; however, AI “virtual influencers” do exist.Mike jokes that high-volume posting might be partially AI-assisted.[00:18:45] 12. FDA Expands In Silico ExperimentsMike explains “in silico” refers to computational drug testing.Outcome: No major regulatory breakthroughs in 2024; still potential for partial replacement of animal models in the future.New 2025 Surprises[00:21:05] 1. A Private Company Achieves Nuclear Fusion IgnitionJason anticipates a private firm matching Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s feat of net energy gain from fusion.Commercial viability remains far out, but venture-backed efforts might surpass prior milestones.[00:23:20] 2. FDA Bans Corn Syrup in Food ProductsJason predicts that, under an RFK Jr.-led FDA, a ban on high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) could disrupt the U.S. food supply chain.Such bans exist in

Welcome to our 2024 Cashflow Pick'em Results Epsode, where Hunt, Mike, and Jason recap the cashflow growth in each company in the memo. Download the memo at Telltales.us and check out episode 2401 where we made our initial picks, here: 2024 Cashflow Pick'emToday we will explore who came out on top in free cash flow growth and examine the forces shaping energy, technology, and healthcare in 2024.[00:01:03] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects Iranian oil exports to decline in early 2025 even without Trump reimposing sanctions. He sees the oil market surplus capacity tightening from 4.4 million barrels per day in 2024 to 3 million in 2025.[00:02:16] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Cold January weather has boosted near-term natural gas prices, but 2025 and 2026 prices remain flat. Power demand growth continues to outpace LNG.[00:02:59] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Elon Musk's influence and 200M Twitter followers are seen as a positive for deficit reduction efforts. Hunt is encouraged by the direction, even if cutting $1T in spending is a tall order.[00:03:53] 2024 Cashflow Pickem Results (Pages 20-1) Mike and Hunt review their cashflow growth predictions from the prior year's episode across all 20 pages (80 companies) of the memo. Mike wins with 11 points!The Telltales hosts scrutinize their 2024 cashflow picks, gleaning insights for their upcoming 2025 predictions. They also touch on the potential market implications of a second Trump term, particularly in energy and federal spending.Oakcliff Sailing Update & RequestsThis week on the Oakcliff segment, Dawn discussed the awesome accomplishments of Oakcliff Sailing this year. She suggests 3 ways you can support Oakcliff in 2025, they are…1. Join and/or host the Oakcliff Winter Tour - This is a two session event gathering our graduates and collaborators to entertain and educate in an effort to set up American Sailing for success into 2028 and beyond. Click here for more info.2. Train at Oakcliff in ‘25 - If you are into sailing haven’t yet trained at Oakcliff, you should! If you aren’t into sailing then you need to try it. Oakcliff has pathways for sailors of all levels. Check out www.oakcliffsailing.org for more.3. Make a donation to Oakcliff Sailing - It’s that time of year. Break out your checkbook and support Oakcliff! Donate Now!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

REQUEST!!This week on the Oakcliff segment, Dawn discussed the awesome accomplishments of Oakcliff Sailing this year. She suggests 3 ways you can support Oakcliff in 2025, they are… Join and/or host the Oakcliff Winter Tour - This is a two session event gathering our graduates and collaborators to entertain and educate in an effort to set up American Sailing for success into 2028 and beyond. Click here for more info.Train at Oakcliff in ‘25 - If you are into sailing haven’t yet trained at Oakcliff, you should! If you aren’t into sailing then you need to try it. Oakcliff has pathways for sailors of all levels. Check out www.oakcliffsailing.org for more.Make a donation to Oakcliff Sailing - It’s that time of year. Break out your checkbook and support Oakcliff! Donate Now!SHOWNOTESEpisode Introduction:In this episode, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence analyze the intersection of global energy markets, technology advancements—particularly in AI, autonomous vehicles, and robotics—and emerging trends in healthcare and finance. They reference data from their “Cash Flow Memo” to provide insights into future investment opportunities, policy implications, and the trajectory of innovation in various sectors.[00:00] Introduction (General)Mike welcomes listeners to Telltales and introduces the “Cash Flow Memo,” which dives into insights on energy, technology, and healthcare. The team sets the stage for a 30-minute exploration into market drivers, policy shifts, and future forecasts in these industries.[01:00] World Oil Supply & Demand (Exhibit C)The conversation centers on Iran’s oil exports and U.S. policy implications under a new administration. The hosts discuss China’s flat energy demand growth and the critical role supply-side adjustments play in maintaining stable oil prices. They explore the complexity of surplus management and its impact on Brent price stability.[04:00] U.S. Gas Demand & Supply (Exhibit B)The hosts analyze the natural gas market, noting seasonal demand fluctuations and the significance of capping dry gas production. They discuss the role of LNG exports, the influence of shifting power generation (including AI-driven demand), and the impact of surplus on price stability. Attention is given to how these factors interact with geopolitical events and long-term production targets.[06:00] U.S. Government Revenues & Expenses (Exhibit A)They review the U.S. fiscal picture, focusing on the two trillion-dollar deficit and the challenges of reducing spending by a trillion dollars. The conversation covers potential effects on 10-year rates, Fed funds rates, and overall economic stability. The hosts consider Elon Musk’s proposed budget cuts and regulatory reforms as aspirational steps toward balanced growth.[09:00] Consumer & Technology Stocks: Uber, DoorDash, Airbnb, Five Below, Harrow (Page 20)The discussion shifts to consumer and tech-related stocks. They consider the potential turnaround at Five Below, Airbnb’s struggles to maintain free cash flow growth, and Harrow’s supply-demand challenges. The team also contemplates how ride-hailing and delivery companies might adapt to autonomous transportation and AI-driven efficiencies.[11:00] Uber ($UBER) & the Advent of RoboTaxis (Pages 20 & 1)Focusing on Uber’s future, the hosts debate whether RoboTaxi services will reshape ride-hailing. They highlight partnerships like Uber-Waymo and consider Tesla’s Full Self-Driving technology. The conversation centers on who might control the “choke point” of aggregation and the margin opportunities that come from scaling autonomous fleets.[13:00] DoorDash ($DASH) & Humanoid Robots (Page 20)They explore the complexities of last-mile delivery and envision humanoid robots bridging the gap from the curb to the customer’s door. The hosts cite Tesla and other startups innovating in robotics, noting how AI-driven solutions can handle diverse delivery scenarios. This suggests a future where robots enhance logistics and efficiency in consumer delivery.[16:00] Tesla Valuation vs. Uber (Pages 1 & 20)The team evaluates Tesla and Uber in the context of autonomous driving’s long-term value creation. They weigh Tesla’s high valuation—backed by its leading tech—against Uber’s current multiples and potential platform advantages. This segment challenges listeners to consider both upside and risk in a rapidly evolving market.[17:00] Commodities & The China Effect (Page 18: FCX / ALB / CF / NEE)Focusing on commodity companies, they note that China’s maturing economy impacts copper, lithium, and ammonia demand. While China grows at 5%, the nature of its growth (services over heavy industry) may curb traditional resource demand. This leads to cautious optimism and moderated expectations for commodity-linked investments.[18:00] Logistics & Retail (Page 17: FDX / UPS / NKE / COST)The conversation turns to FedEx, UPS, Nike, and Costco. They consider Amazon’s logistics advancements as a significant competitive factor and specul

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Elon Musk's massive AI training cluster on the semiconductor industry, the future of self-driving cars, and the shifting landscape of chip manufacturing. They also explore the potential impact of Trump's FDA pick on healthcare costs and the U.S. budget.[00:06:27] Limits to GPU Scaling (Page 1) Jason and Mike discuss the limitations of scaling GPU clusters for AI training, with Elon Musk's plans to expand Tesla's cluster from 100,000 to 1 million GPUs. They explore the challenges of power consumption, data center capacity, and the potential solutions, such as linking data centers together.[00:11:21] TSMC Arizona Yield Comparison (Page 3) The team examines the success of TSMC's Arizona fab, which is producing 3nm chips with better yields than its Taiwan counterpart. They discuss the implications for U.S. participation in the semiconductor industry and the potential for TSMC to become a monopoly in leading-edge chip production.[00:17:00] Potential Suitors for Intel (Page 3) With Jeff Bezos back at Amazon, the team speculates on whether he or Elon Musk could be suitable candidates to turn around Intel's struggling foundry business. They discuss the challenges and opportunities of such an acquisition and its potential impact on the semiconductor industry.[00:19:00] Neural Networks for Full Self Driving Jason explains how Tesla's approach to autonomous driving differs from other companies, using neural networks trained on vast amounts of video data rather than detailed street maps. The team discusses the implications of this approach, including the potential for licensing the technology to other automakers.[00:25:25] Vertex's Manufacturing Partnership and Sickle Cell Treatment (Page 15) Jason shares news about Vertex's partnership with Saudi Arabia to develop a gene therapy production facility, targeting the country's high prevalence of sickle cell disease. The team also touches on the lack of updates regarding Vertex's pain medicine and diabetes treatment.[00:27:27] Trump's FDA Pick and Healthcare Price Transparency (Page 20 and Exhibit A) The team discusses the nomination of Marty McCary, a Harrow board member, to head the FDA. They explore his ideas for reducing healthcare costs through price transparency and the potential impact on the U.S. budget, given that healthcare accounts for a significant portion of government spending.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, from the cutting-edge developments in AI and self-driving cars to the shifting landscape of semiconductor manufacturing and the potential for healthcare reform under the new administration. Stay tuned for more insights and analysis on the industries shaping our future.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the challenges surrounding AI hallucination, the potential for healthcare reform under a new administration, and the outlook for the energy sector. They explore the legal and ethical implications of generative AI models, examine potential solutions to tackle healthcare costs, and analyze the effects of geopolitics and policy changes on oil and natural gas.[00:01:01] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects Iranian oil exports to decrease by half a million barrels per day in 2025 compared to Iran's own forecast. He notes that Chinese refiners are already taking less Iranian oil in anticipation of the new administration. However, if Iran agrees to give up uranium enrichment in exchange for lifting sanctions, oil surplus could increase.[00:02:58] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Hunt discusses the impact of cold weather on natural gas production and demand. He highlights the importance of LNG feed gas and power demand growth in keeping the storage change down and maintaining a year-round price of around $3.40.[00:04:08] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES Hunt examines the potential for spending cuts under the new administration, focusing on defense, "all other" expenses, and healthcare. He emphasizes the need to find savings in order to reduce the deficit and bring down the debt-to-GNP ratio.[00:06:01] Healthcare & D.O.G.E Jason and Mike discuss the potential vulnerabilities of healthcare companies under a new administration focused on cost reduction. They explore the challenges of implementing a single-payer system and the trade-offs involved in providing universal healthcare.[00:16:00] How Big Tech Deals with AI Hallucination The team delves into the issue of AI hallucination and the role of guardrails in managing the output of language models. They discuss the challenges of introducing biases during the reinforcement learning process and the potential need for regulation.[00:25:56] Section 230 and Content Moderation Hunt raises the question of whether websites should be held responsible for the content generated by AI models. Mike and Jason discuss the original intent of Section 230 and the challenges of content moderation in the era of generative AI.Get the latest memo at www.telltales.usHROW 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ UNH 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Download the memo at www.telltales.usSHOWNOTESJoin Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence on Telltales as they delve into the latest financial insights across the energy, technology, and healthcare sectors. This episode covers topics from global oil supply dynamics to the AI strategies of tech giants like NVIDIA and Apple.[00:00:34] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt discusses the current status of the global oil supply and demand, noting uncertainty regarding Iranian oil exports amidst geopolitical tensions. He suggests that with potential policy changes, oil prices may remain elevated due to efforts to reduce Iranian oil exports.[00:01:21] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B) Hunt comments on the US natural gas market, highlighting that colder weather is influencing gas prices positively. He notes the significant increase in US gas supply from 2021 to 2024, driven largely by "superman" production, and questions whether production will exceed 105 Bcf/d in the coming year.[00:02:08] Exhibit A: US GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A) Hunt reflects on the US government's fiscal situation, emphasizing the need to address the $2 trillion overspend with expenditures nearing $7 trillion and revenues just under $5 trillion. He mentions efforts by policymakers to find significant budget reductions within government spending.[00:02:50] Page 1: AAPL / AMZN / GOOG / MSFT / TSLA (Page 1) Hunt initiates a discussion on major tech companies. On Apple, Jason notes delays in AI developments, specifically the upgraded Siri, which won't roll out until early 2026, indicating Apple is behind competitors. Mike adds potential risks from antitrust issues affecting Apple's revenue from Google.[00:05:34] Amazon's AI Investments and Future Growth (Page 1) Jason and Mike discuss Amazon's significant capital expenditure on AI chips and R&D, highlighting that Amazon is investing heavily in future technologies, particularly in Amazon Web Services (AWS). They emphasize that this positions Amazon as bullish on the future, potentially yielding strong returns.[00:07:54] Alphabet's Antitrust Challenges (Page 1) Mike examines Google's valuation in light of ongoing antitrust litigation, which may impact its advertising revenue and partnerships, such as payments to Apple. They consider whether the potential breakup could unlock value, noting that historically, companies often perform better after antitrust actions.[00:09:59] Microsoft's AI Integration and Copilot Adoption (Page 1) Jason and Mike analyze Microsoft's AI product Copilot, noting slower than expected user adoption due to underwhelming user experience. They discuss the future potential of AI agents in automating tasks within Microsoft's suite, predicting that as the technology improves, adoption will increase.[00:13:09] Tesla's Autonomous Driving and Financial Strength (Page 1) Hunt and Jason talk about Tesla's financial performance and advancements in autonomous driving. Jason mentions the positive outlook due to potential national standards for autonomous driving under the new administration and improvements in Tesla's production efficiency and gross margins.[00:16:23] Page 3: NVIDIA's Unprecedented Growth (Page 3) Hunt highlights NVIDIA's massive increase in free cash flow, raising questions about the sustainability of its growth. Jason predicts strong growth for the next three years due to high demand for AI chips and data center expansions, though he anticipates growth may plateau thereafter as AI models mature.[00:23:02] Oakcliff Sailing Update An update from Dawn at Oakcliff Sailing expresses gratitude for supporters and shares success stories of graduates who have taken the organization's mission globally. She mentions upcoming fundraising efforts and thanks the hosts for their continued support.[00:24:51] Page 4: Netflix's Live Streaming Challenges (Page 4) The hosts discuss Netflix's attempt to stream live events, noting issues during the Mike Tyson event with poor video and sound quality. Jason explains the technical challenges of scaling live streaming to 100 million viewers and anticipates improvements before Netflix streams NFL games on Christmas Day.[00:29:49] Closing Remarks Hunt wraps up the episode, thanking Mike and Jason for their contributions and wishing listeners a good Thanksgiving. He mentions upcoming episodes and encourages everyone to stay healthy.Thank you for tuning into Telltales. Don't forget to download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and join us next week for more insights into the energy, technology, and healthcare sectors.#Investing, #AI, #NVIDIA, #Apple, #Amazon, #Tesla, #Microsoft, #Netflix, #EnergyMarkets, #OilPrices, #NaturalGas, #StockMarket, #TechStocks, #FinancialAnalysis, #AntitrustAAPL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ NFLX 0.00%↑ CRM 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team continues last week’s discussion on the potential impact of Donald Trump's election victory on pages 1-7 of the memo. They also delve into company-specific news and developments, such as Netflix's live streaming challenges and the future of the semiconductor industry.[00:00:49] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt discusses the potential impact of a Trump administration on the global oil market, particularly in relation to Iran's production and exports. The surplus capacity could dry up if the new administration tightens sanctions or makes a deal with Iran.[00:03:48] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY The team notes that natural gas prices are finally close to a three handle on the December contract, and the out years are behaving reasonably well. Hunt plans to update the natural gas demand and supply forecast for the following week.[00:04:16] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt believes that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will work on finding ways to make the government more efficient, with Musk aiming to save $2 trillion. Substantial reductions in healthcare spending may be necessary to achieve this goal.[00:05:07] Payment Companies: MA, V, PYPL (Page 7) The team discusses the potential impact of a Trump presidency on payment companies like Mastercard, Visa, and PayPal. They explore the role of crypto enthusiasts in shaping the administration's stance and the challenges blockchain faces in replacing traditional payment systems.[00:09:20] Telecom Companies: T, VZ, TMUS (Page 6) Hunt and the team analyze the prospects for AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile under a Trump administration. They discuss the completion of 5G network buildouts, potential changes in regulations, and the impact of low Earth orbit satellites on the industry.[00:12:11] Cable Companies: CHTR, CMCSA (Page 5) The discussion turns to the traditional cable companies, Charter and Comcast, and their transition into providing internet access. The team explores the strong competition in the industry and the potential impact of pharmaceutical advertising on news coverage.[00:17:40] Streaming and Media: NFLX, DIS, META, SPOT (Page 4) Jason and Mike delve into the challenges Netflix faced during the Mike Tyson fight live stream and the infrastructure required for successful live streaming events. They also discuss the differences between Netflix's traditional streaming model and live streaming.[00:21:17] Semiconductor Industry: NVDA, AMD, INTC, TSMC, ASML (Page 3) The team analyzes the semiconductor industry, focusing on the shift from human-based coding to learning algorithms and the importance of GPUs. They discuss the positions of NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor, and ASML in the market and the potential impact of tariffs and geopolitical factors.[00:28:34] Big Tech and Tesla: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, TSLA (Page 1) The conversation turns to the surge in Tesla's stock price following Trump's victory and Elon Musk's influence on policy and cabinet choices. They discuss the potential for federal licensing of autonomous driving and its impact on Tesla. The team also explores the proposed antitrust resolution for Alphabet's browser and the dynamics of search engine competition.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics related to the 2024 election outcome, providing insights and analysis on the potential impacts across various industries. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions on energy, technology, and healthcare in future episodes.#Semiconductors, #StreamingWars, #PharmaAds, #NewsMedia, #AntitrustLaw MA 0.00%↑ V 0.00%↑ PYPL 0.00%↑ T 0.00%↑ VZ 0.00%↑ TMUS 0.00%↑ CHTR 0.00%↑ CMCSA 0.00%↑ NFLX 0.00%↑ DIS 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ SPOT 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ ASML 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence analyze market impacts of the developing Trump administration across various sectors.⏱️ Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:30 - Intro00:00:44 - World Oil Supply/Demand Analysis03:42 - US Gas Demand/Supply Overview04:40 - US Government Revenues and Expenses05:30 - UBER/DASH/ABNB/FIVE/HROW Analysis06:33 - Healthcare Sector (UNH/CVS/REGN/LLY)09:39 - Mining & Energy (FCX/ALB/CF/NEE)13:06 - Restaurant & Hospitality Stocks14:11 - Food & Beverage Sector15:19 - Pharmaceutical Companies16:20 - Industrial Equipment17:41 - Financial Sector Analysis20:58 - Natural Gas Companies21:27 - Oil Companies Review21:40 - Midstream Companies21:51 - Major Oil Companies22:06 - Retail Sector Analysis🔑 Key Topics:Impact of Iran sanctions on oil marketsHealthcare sector reforms and PBM regulationsElectric vehicle market outlookFinancial sector regulatory changesEnergy sector developments💡 Featured Companies:Healthcare: UnitedHealth, CVS, Regeneron, Eli LillyEnergy: ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillipsTech: Uber, DoorDash, AirbnbRetail: Walmart, Target, Home Depot📝 Note: This episode contains investment analysis and market commentary. All discussions are for informational purposes only.#Trump2024, #EnergyPolicy, #HealthcareReform, #TechRegulation, #ChinaRelations, #IranSanctions, #UkraineNATO, #ElonMusk, #VivekRamaswamy, #GovernmentEfficiency$UNH $CVS $REGN $LLY $PFE $MRNA $LNTH $BNTX $VRTX $FCX $ALB $CF $NEE $FDX $UPS $NKE $COST $MCD $SBUX $CMG $CELH $HLT $WMT $TGT $LOW $HD $KMX $JPM $MS $GS $IBKR $AR $EQT $CHK $AM $EOG $MGY $PR $FANG $KMI $EPD $ET $WES $XOM $CVX $COP $OXY $LNGThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Donald Trump's 2024 election victory on healthcare, energy, and technology. They analyze key exhibits and dive into company-specific news and developments.[00:00:57] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Page 1) Hunt expects a Trump administration deal with China to tighten the oil market surplus in 2025 by phasing out Iranian barrels. Despite predictions of peak oil demand, the IEA still forecasts an increase in 2025 versus 2024.[00:02:10] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Page 1) Hunt anticipates better natural gas demand under Trump, with power demand outperforming LNG. He believes the administration will lift the hold on new LNG projects and combined cycle plants, leading to stronger demand growth.[00:04:32] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Page 1) Hunt emphasizes the need to reduce the deficit in "all other" expenses and hopes Elon Musk will help save $200-300 billion. The goal is to get the deficit trend moving downward and lower the debt-to-GNP ratio through economic growth.[00:08:41] Healthcare News: PFE, MRNA, LNTH, BNTX, VRTX (Page 15) Jason discusses the potential for changes to the ACA under Trump and the possibility of the FDA losing its food regulation responsibilities. Vertex's earnings and pipeline progress, particularly in type 1 diabetes, are highlighted, while Lantheus faces challenges with Pylarify sales growth.[00:21:15] Semiconductor Industry: NVDA, AMD, INTC, TSMC, ASML (Page 3) The team explores the implications of a Trump presidency on the semiconductor industry, including the Taiwan-China dynamic and the potential for Intel to be merged with Qualcomm or Broadcom. They also discuss the importance of ASML's lithography machines and the challenges Intel faces in catching up to TSMC.[00:28:06] Big Tech and Regulations: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, TSLA (Page 1) Mike examines the potential impact of a Trump administration on big tech companies, noting the president's anti-big tech stance. The team also discusses the possibility of easier acquisitions and fewer regulations in the tech sector.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics related to the 2024 election outcome, providing insights and analysis on the potential impacts across various industries. #Subscribe for more in-depth discussions on energy, healthcare, and technology.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00:00] Introduction[00:00:57] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandHunt discusses Israel's recent actions and their impact on oil facilities.Analysis of OPEC's plan to increase oil supply by one million barrels per day starting December.Suggestion to monitor oil company stocks for potential investment opportunities.[00:02:47] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand/SupplyExamination of gas demand growth and LNG exports.Discussion on renewable energy's impact on gas demand for power generation.Projections for gas prices in 2024 and 2025.Mention of increased gas imports from Canada.[00:05:53] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Revenues and ExpensesReview of the U.S. government's cash flow and spending challenges.Analysis of major expense categories: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, interest, and defense.Discussion on the difficulty of reducing government spending by $2 trillion.Emphasis on the need to flatline spending and promote economic growth.[00:08:24] AI's Impact on the Election CycleJason notes that fears about AI-generated misinformation did not materialize significantly.Discussion on deep fakes and the role of tech companies in suppressing misinformation.Mike cautions that the election is not over yet.[00:09:20] Analyzing the Netflix FranchiseHunt challenges Mike and Jason to analyze Netflix's position in the streaming industry.Comparison between Netflix, Spotify, and YouTube.Jason predicts a potential duopoly between Netflix and YouTube.Mike discusses different content types and their value, such as live sports vs. reusable shows.Analysis of competitive dynamics and market strategies of streaming services.[00:16:42] Franchise Values of Google, Microsoft, and Their ChallengersHunt questions the strength of Google's search franchise amid AI advancements.Jason and Mike discuss Bing's market share and the potential for AI to disrupt traditional search.Conversation about OpenAI, ChatGPT, and Google's AI capabilities.Speculation on Meta's influence by giving away AI products.[00:23:54] Healthcare Update: Lilly Earnings and Vertex PharmaceuticalsHunt introduces the healthcare segment focusing on Eli Lilly and Vertex Pharmaceuticals.Jason explains Lilly's earnings miss due to compounding pharmacies affecting sales.Discussion on FDA regulations and the legal battle with compounding pharmacies.Update on Vertex's pain drug, market size, and potential to reduce opioid addiction.Mention of CVS considering a breakup and antitrust actions against PBMs (Pharmacy Benefit Managers).Brief discussion on UnitedHealth's financial performance.[00:31:13] Closing Remarks$NFLX $GOOGL $MSFT $SPOT $META $AMZN $LLY $VRTX $UNH $CVSThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team dives into the latest developments in AI, analyzing the competitive landscape and opportunities for major tech companies. They also discuss Spotify's business model and moat, and examine the unsustainable U.S. deficit and its potential economic ramifications.[00:34] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt provides an update on the oil market, noting that while the prospect of Israeli missiles directed at Iranian export facilities has supported prices, surplus capacity of around 4 million barrels is likely to keep prices in check. He also highlights the mature nature of oil demand in developed economies.[03:19] US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B) Hunt discusses the substantial revisions made to the natural gas page, with production remaining flat but Canadian imports increasing significantly. He expresses concern about the recent drop in gas prices and the surplus of gas in storage.[06:18] US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A) Hunt emphasizes the unsustainable nature of the U.S. deficit, with government borrowing nearly $2 trillion last year. He notes the recent rise in 10-year bond yields and the potential challenges in financing the deficit while the Fed reduces its balance sheet.[08:34] JPM / MS / GS / IBKR (Page 13) The hosts review the nine-month results for major banks, focusing on their free cash flow and valuations. They compare the performance and business models of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.[11:21] NFLX / DIS / META / SPOT (Page 4) The discussion turns to media and content companies, with a focus on Spotify's business model and potential expansion into video. Mike and Jason analyze Spotify's network effects, revenue drivers, and challenges in creator compensation.[16:52] AI Agents Hunt introduces the topic of AI agents and their potential impact on various companies. Jason and Mike discuss the development of specialized and generalized AI agents, the importance of reducing errors, and the likely timelines for consumer-facing AI products.[29:42] NFLX / DIS / META / SPOT (Page 4) The hosts return to discussing Meta's advancements in AI and its potential to increase free cash flow compared to Amazon and Google. They also touch upon Google's advantages in the Android ecosystem and the potential impact of AI agents on app store revenues.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Show NotesIn this episode of Telltales, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence delve into the latest developments in energy, technology, and healthcare. Join them as they discuss the implications of Tesla's recent announcements, the groundbreaking Nobel Prize win by Google's DeepMind team, and the current state of global oil and gas markets.[00:52] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C)[05:27] US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B)[09:03] US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A)[09:35] Google Engineers Win Nobel Peace Prize[23:35] MAG7 Risks: TESLATopics Covered:Energy Market UpdatesGlobal Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C)Surplus Challenges: Discussion on the current surplus of 4 million barrels per day and its impact on oil prices.Geopolitical Factors: Insights into agreements between Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the U.S., and how Middle Eastern geopolitics affect oil markets.OPEC+ Strategies: Examination of OPEC+'s plan to incrementally increase oil supply starting in December.Price Predictions: Analysis suggesting oil prices may head lower, possibly into the low $60s by early next year.Production Dynamics: The role of non-OPEC production increases from regions like Guyana, Brazil, and West Texas.U.S. Natural Gas Demand and Supply (Exhibit B)Oversupply Issues: Overview of the current oversupply in the U.S. gas market and production curtailments by EQT and Chesapeake.Permian Basin Impact: Explanation of associated gas production from the Permian Basin contributing to increased supply.Demand Factors: Discussion on power generation demands, LNG export prospects, and their influence on future gas prices.Price Outlook: Expectations for sustained natural gas prices in the $3 range, with caution about potential market slides.U.S. Government Revenues and Expenses (Exhibit A)Deficit Concerns: Highlighting the nearly $2 trillion deficit and the lack of political discourse addressing it.Future Implications: The necessity for the next administration to tackle the deficit due to pressures from global capital markets.Healthcare NewsGoogle's DeepMind Engineers Win Nobel PrizeAlphaFold Breakthrough: Discussion on the Nobel Prize in Chemistry awarded for the development of AlphaFold, an AI system that predicts protein structures.Impact on Drug Discovery: How AlphaFold accelerates preclinical research by enabling rapid protein design and structure prediction.Industry Implications: Potential for pharma companies to license AlphaFold technology, changing the landscape of drug development.Technical Insights: Comparison of traditional methods versus AI-driven protein folding predictions.Mag 7 Risks: TeslaTesla's RoboTaxi Announcement: Summary of Tesla's recent unveiling of the RoboTaxi and humanoid robots.Vision for the Future: Elon Musk's portrayal of transportation becoming seamless and less intrusive in daily life.Technical Analysis: Discussion on the lack of detailed specifications and what that means for the rollout.Competition Landscape: Comparison with Waymo's approach, including differences in technology like LiDAR versus camera-only systems.Regulatory Challenges: Exploration of the hurdles Tesla may face in getting RoboTaxi approved in various states.Valuation Considerations: Debate on how many cars Tesla needs to sell to justify current valuations, factoring in the potential of RoboTaxi services.Global Outlook: Speculation on whether autonomous vehicle technology will advance more rapidly in China due to regulatory environments.Key TakeawaysEnergy Markets: Both oil and natural gas markets are experiencing oversupply, which may lead to lower prices unless production adjusts.Healthcare Innovation: AI breakthroughs like AlphaFold are poised to revolutionize drug discovery and development.Autonomous Vehicles: Tesla's ambitious plans for RoboTaxi could transform transportation but face significant technical and regulatory challenges.Economic Concerns: The U.S. deficit remains a critical issue that requires attention from policymakers.Connect with UsWebsite: Visit telltales.us to access the Cash Flow Memo and stay updated on future episodes.Subscribe: Follow us on your favorite podcast platform and never miss an episode.Feedback: Have questions or comments? Reach out to us through our website or social media channels.Thank you for tuning in to this episode of Telltales. Join us next week as we continue to explore the intersections of energy, technology, and healthcare shaping our world today.TSLA 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ EQT 0.00%↑ CHK 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ REGN 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ UBER 0.00%↑ LYFT 0.00%↑This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained her

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team dives deep into analyzing Microsoft's competitive position and cash flow drivers as the computing world stands on the cusp of an artificial intelligence revolution. Will Microsoft's key profit engines in Office and Windows withstand the AI wave or will the tech giant face disruption?[00:01] Energy & Macro Overview (Exhibits A, B, C) Hunt notes the reduction in oil surplus capacity and the recent uptick in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel. Natural gas prices have improved slightly but remain dependent on steady production and rising power demand. The US deficit came in lower than expected at $1.8T.[00:11] Commodity Check-In (Page 18) A look at how major commodity producers are faring - copper giant Freeport-McMoRan is holding steady with $3.7B in FCF while lithium leader Albemarle is struggling with nearly $2B in negative cash flow, despite both feeding into the EV and renewable energy transition.[00:16] Pfizer Under Pressure? (Page 15) With activist investor Starboard circling, the team debates whether Pfizer's challenges stem more from mismanaged expectations post-COVID or a thin pipeline and patent cliff issues that are spurring M&A across big pharma.[00:21] Microsoft: Mapping the Cash Flow (Page 1) Mike breaks down Microsoft's ~$70B in FCF: $40B+ from Office, $20B from Windows franchises, with the remainder from Azure cloud. Azure's 47% operating margins look rich, especially considering competition from Amazon, Google, and Oracle.[00:26] Windows and Office: Monopoly Profits (Page 1) Jason explains how Microsoft's dominance arose from the transition to personal computing, with Office's proprietary file formats creating a lock-in. Windows won on the desktop but lost in servers to Linux's superior reliability.[00:28] The AI Reckoning: Disruption or Sustaining Innovation? (Page 1) The team debates if the AI revolution, and Microsoft's bet on OpenAI, represents a sustaining innovation that will entrench incumbents or a disruptive threat. Will a new AI orchestration layer cement Microsoft's lead or will a paradigm shift in computing upset the old guard?The Telltales team tackles Microsoft's future in an AI-driven world. Will the tech titan's armor hold or will AI prove a disruptive force? Tune in next week as the crew shifts gears to discuss Tesla's RoboTaxi and the EV pioneer's place in an autonomous future.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, the Telltales team dives into the risks facing Meta (formerly Facebook, META 0.00%↑ ) as it navigates a shifting social media landscape and invests heavily in AI and the metaverse. They also discuss the latest healthcare news, including breakthroughs in treating diabetes and sickle cell disease.For earlier episodes in this series, check out:Apple's Underwhelming Reveal: A Sign of Shifting Tides? (e2437)Alphabet's Achilles Heel: Is Google the Next Kodak? (e2438)Examining Amazon's AI Strategy and Risks (e2439)[00:28] Magnificent 7 Cashflow Risks part 3: Meta (p. 1) Jason and Mike examine the challenges Meta faces, including competition from TikTok for younger users, its aging user base, reliance on Apple's platform, and the uncertain payoff of its massive investments in the metaverse. [09:47] Meta's Disadvantaged Position vs. Apple (p. 4) Mike explains how Meta's shift to mobile left it more constrained by and vulnerable to Apple compared to the desktop era. If Apple starts taking a cut of ad revenue, it could severely impact Meta's cashflow. While Meta is investing heavily in AI and VR to win the next computing platform, Apple is well-positioned to swoop in later as they did with mobile.[20:01] OpenAI's Latest Financing and Executive Departures Mike discusses OpenAI's new funding round, conversion to a for-profit company, and the concerning departure of several key employees. However, the release of GPT-4 shows the company continuing to push AI capabilities forward. The hosts ponder if starting as a non-profit before flipping to for-profit is an optimal strategy.[25:37] Healthcare News Roundup Jason covers Lantheus’s out-licensing a cardiac imaging agent to GE Healthcare, a Congressional bill that could enable patenting of DNA, Pfizer pulling a sickle cell drug due to risks outweighing benefits, Humana losing Medicare Advantage bonus payments, the continuation of Vertex's pain medication trials, and a small but promising diabetes trial in China.The Telltales Podcast brings you unparalleled weekly insights into the world of investing and company analysis. Be sure to download the Cash Flow Memo to follow along with the financials being discussed. Join us again next Wednesday for another deep dive!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

ShownotesIn this episode of Telltales Podcast, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence explore the cash flow characteristics of companies across sectors like energy, technology, and healthcare. They also provide insights into US government finances, natural gas, and oil markets. Here’s a breakdown of the main topics discussed.[00:32] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply and Demand The hosts discuss how macroeconomic factors and geopolitical changes in Lebanon have temporarily impacted oil prices, leading to a welcome strengthening in oil prices. (Exhibit C: Oil)[01:04] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand and Supply The conversation shifts to natural gas pricing trends. The hosts explore how recent price increases in gas contracts for 2025 and 2026 signal better conditions in the natural gas market, despite short-term fluctuations. (Exhibit B: Natural Gas)[02:00] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses The hosts express concerns over the growing US deficit, despite rising revenues. They discuss how high interest payments and increased spending in social programs are causing fiscal challenges. (Exhibit A: US Gov. Finances)[05:15] Amazon’s Risks and Uncertainties The team dives into Amazon’s business model, analyzing the risks in its AWS and third-party logistics business. They also assess the impact of AI competition and consumer spending trends on Amazon’s future. (Memo: Page 1, Amazon)[16:12] Pharmacy Benefit Managers and Antitrust Scrutiny Jason discusses the FTC investigation into Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) and their use of rebates that push patients toward higher-cost drugs. The segment highlights how this affects drug pricing, particularly insulin. (Memo: Page 19, PBMs)[18:21] Eli Lilly’s Market Position and GLP-1 Competition Eli Lilly’s success with its weight loss and diabetes drugs is under the spotlight, though government price negotiations may soon pressure its GLP-1 drug prices. The team also discusses future competition in this drug category. (Memo: Page 19, Lilly)[20:11] Visa Antitrust Concerns Visa faces antitrust scrutiny. The team discusses potential impacts on their business models, ongoing lawsuits, and how these companies handle regulatory challenges. (Memo: Page 7, MA/V)[22:53] Nuclear Power and Tech Support for Clean Energy The hosts explore the role of nuclear power in meeting clean energy goals, particularly with tech companies like Apple backing it as a clean source. Regulatory hurdles remain a major challenge in expanding nuclear energy infrastructure. (Memo: Page 1, Microsoft & Nuclear)[24:55] Software Giants: Salesforce, Oracle, and AI GrowthSalesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake come under scrutiny for their ability to generate free cash flow. Oracle’s success in leveraging AI for database optimization is highlighted as a key growth area. (Memo: Page 2, CRM/NOW/ORCL)Join us next week as we continue to evaluate top companies based on their cash flow characteristics. Stay tuned for more insights into the energy and technology sectors, and don't forget to download the latest Cash Flow Memo for detailed data.AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ ORCL 0.00%↑ MA 0.00%↑ V 0.00%↑ PYPL 0.00%↑ CRM 0.00%↑ NOW 0.00%↑ SNOW 0.00%↑ AVGO 0.00%↑ LLY 0.00%↑ NVO 0.00%↑This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, the Telltales team dives deep into the risks and uncertainties facing Google and its parent company Alphabet as AI technologies like ChatGPT threaten to disrupt its long-standing search business model. Jason shares his concerns that Google could become the next Kodak if it fails to adapt to the AI-powered future of search.[00:08:17] Google's AI Search Dilemma (Page 1) Jason warns that Google's model of 10 blue links for search, which has been around for over 20 years, is vulnerable to disruption from large language models and AI-powered search interfaces being developed by Microsoft, OpenAI, and other well-funded startups. The key question is whether these new AI search technologies will upend Google's dominance.[00:14:59] The Future of Search & AI (Page 1) The hosts discuss the potential for AI search to be too computationally expensive, which could help Google maintain its low-cost advantage. However, Jason notes that hardware and software improvements are rapidly bringing down the cost of running AI inferences. Mike suggests that an AI orchestration layer running on devices could efficiently outsource queries to the most capable resources.[00:27:15] Healthcare Updates (Page 15) Jason shares updates on Lantheus' prostate cancer treatment data, which showed improvement but didn't outperform Novartis' Pluvicto. He also mentions Vertex's excitement about their pain program and the pending release of Biontech's melanoma study data.[00:29:49] Next Week Preview: Mag7 Risks Hunt teases that they will continue analyzing the potential weaknesses of another one of the "Magnificent 7" companies in next week's episode, but keeps the specific company a secret for now.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in the energy sector, Apple's lackluster iPhone 16 launch event, and exciting updates from biotech companies Vertex, BioNTech, and Harrow Health.[00:01:05] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Hunt notes that oil is in decline, with China's demand forecast to be flat. Surplus capacity remains at 4M barrels, mostly controlled by the Saudis and Abu Dhabi. He advises waiting or buying half positions in upstream oil companies.[00:01:50] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply Natural gas production continues to rise despite curtailments by major producers. LNG projects are delayed and futures prices remain low. The Permian basin is the largest growth area.[00:03:03] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses The US deficit is projected to be around $1.6 trillion in 2024. Spending cuts will need to be addressed by the next administration.[00:03:42] Energy Review (pages 9-12) Hunt goes through the energy pages, focusing on midstream and diversified oil & gas companies. He highlights Antero Resources and its midstream subsidiary as an interesting comparison. [00:09:41] Is 30x Free Cash Flow = Value? (page 1) The hosts discuss whether 30 times free cash flow is a reasonable valuation for high-quality companies in the current interest rate environment. They note the importance of confidence in future growth at higher multiples.[00:14:59] Apple iPhone 16 Launch - Underwhelming? (page 1) Jason and Mike debate the significance of Apple's underwhelming iPhone 16 launch. While new features were limited, Mike argues Apple is transitioning to a services-focused business model. Jason questions if Apple can compete as a software company against the likes of Google and Meta.[00:23:58] Healthcare News Roundup (pages 15, 19, 20) Jason provides updates on Vertex, Harrow Health, and BioNTech from recent healthcare conferences. Vertex's CEO referred to their diabetes treatment as a potential cure. Harrow's subsidiary Melt Pharmaceuticals could have a $100M business at launch. BioNTech is set to announce data from its oncology programs.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics this week, providing valuable insights for investors interested in energy, technology, and healthcare. Tune in for the full discussion and analysis.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the macro environment, including government finances and energy markets, and debates the investment merits of big tech stocks trading at 30-50x free cash flow. They also dive deep into NVIDIA's leading position in accelerated computing and the potential threats to its dominance.[00:00] Oil & Gas (Exhibits B & C): Hunt opens the discussion by examining the current state of oil and natural gas markets, noting the influence of factors like China's demand and U.S. production.[06:09] Exhibit A: US Gov't Revenues and ExpensesHunt analyzes the US government's financial situation, noting the challenges in raising additional revenue or cutting expenses meaningfully. He suggests that in the upcoming presidential debate, neither side will be able to make a strong case for fiscal improvement.[09:20] Page 1: AAPL / AMZN / GOOG / MSFT / TSLA The team examines the high free cash flow multiples of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks and debates whether they represent good value in an environment of elevated interest rates, given their strong competitive positions and growth prospects.[12:22] Page 3: NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML Mike and Jason do a deep dive on NVIDIA, discussing why its 15-20 year lead in AI accelerators will be hard for competitors to close, even as generative AI could potentially help them develop rival software platforms faster. However, they believe NVIDIA's ecosystem advantage will be difficult to overcome.[20:30] Page 3: Nvidia's Competition The team considers potential threats to NVIDIA's dominance, including hyperscalers developing their own AI chips and AMD's efforts to catch up with its ROCm platform. However, they believe NVIDIA's software lead and incumbent position with developers give it a strong moat.[23:26] Pages 15 & 19: Healthcare News Jason provides updates on Vertex's regulatory issues in the UK, Novartis divesting its radiopharmacy business in Europe while expanding in the US, and the market opportunity for Lantheus' Alzheimer's diagnostic imaging agent.[25:35] Page 3: Nvidia Blackwell Delay The hosts discuss the implications of NVIDIA delaying its next-gen Blackwell chip by 2 months. They mostly see it as a minor issue and potentially a strategic move to optimize yields, especially since NVIDIA is still ahead of competitors.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in energy markets, semiconductor stocks, and biotech. Key topics include Intel's decline due to strategic missteps, NVIDIA's AI leadership and competitive risks, and updates on oil, natural gas, and the U.S. deficit.[00:59] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt notes 4 million barrels per day of spare production capacity, mostly from Saudi Arabia and UAE. If this supply came online, oil prices could drop significantly. Easing of tensions in Ukraine and Middle East could be bearish for oil.[03:19] US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B) Natural gas prices are falling as storage levels rise much faster than normal, with the November contract trading in low $2 range. Weather will be a key factor, but persistently low prices could be a risk, especially for Haynesville producers.[04:20] US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A)The U.S. deficit remains a long-term challenge with no easy solutions. [06:39] Energy Earnings Updates: 2024Q2 (Pages 9-12) Hunt reviews the latest results and outlook for Antero, EQT, Chesapeake, EOG, Magnolia, Permian Resources, Diamondback, Kinder Morgan, Enterprise, Energy Transfer, and the oil majors. [13:44] Intel's Journey to Irrelevance (Page 4) The team discusses how Intel went from being the dominant chipmaker to facing an existential crisis due to missing mobile and AI trends. With $15B of annual cash burn and $48B of debt, major restructuring may be needed. Meanwhile, NVIDIA has grown from $5B to $110B+ in revenue.[19:16] Nvidia's Risks (Page 4) While hyperscalers like Amazon and Google are developing their own AI chips for cost and performance reasons, they are likely to still rely heavily on NVIDIA GPUs. Energy availability is a potential risk. Mike & Jason published an article on Nvidia’s 5 risks which you can get from their website: www.topmarkcapital.com [24:54] PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTX (Page 15) Jason provides an update on the latest in biotech, including Novartis divesting its radiopharmacy unit, viewing Lantheus' network as a strategic asset. BioNTech also announced promising early results for an mRNA lung cancer vaccine. Be sure to subscribe and leave a review - and don't forget to sign up for the Cashflow Memo at telltales.us!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

ShownotesIn this episode, the Telltales Podcast team explores recent developments in healthcare, the importance of founder stories in investing, and potential economic risks on the horizon.[00:00:54] World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C) The Iranian response to recent events in Tehran has been delayed indefinitely, potentially impacting oil prices. The team discusses the ongoing situation between Hamas and Israel, as well as Saudi Arabia and UAE's role in the oil market surplus.[02:29] US Gas Demand/Supply (Exhibit B) Concerns are raised about natural gas prices and consumption due to unseasonably warm weather in New York. The team suggests delaying discussion on energy companies to monitor price developments.[03:12] US Government Revenues and Expenses (Exhibit A) The podcast highlights the growing deficit and potential risks associated with high government debt. They predict a possible financial event in the coming year that could impact the markets.[03:45] Financial Institutions Overview (Page 13) Discussion of JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and the addition of Interactive Brokers to their analysis. The team emphasizes the importance of overnight borrowing in the repo market and potential risks associated with it.[06:59] Jobs Data Revision The team analyzes the recent significant downward revision of job gains by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, comparing it to similar revisions during the 2009 financial crisis.[08:55] Telltales Founder Stories Gwendolyn and Holly share insights from their research on company founders, highlighting stories from NVIDIA, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, TSMC, and Interactive Brokers. The team emphasizes the importance of studying founders for investment decisions.[13:31] Healthcare Sector Analysis (Page 19) In-depth discussion of recent developments in the GLP-1 drug market, focusing on Eli Lilly's recent study results and FDA decisions. The team explores the potential impact on healthcare spending and competition in the market.[25:10] Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Diabetes Research (Page 15) The podcast concludes with a discussion of Vertex Pharmaceuticals' promising early-stage research on type 1 diabetes treatment and the company's unique approach to drug development.Don't forget to subscribe to our email list at telltales.us for weekly updates on cashflow analysis across various sectors!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, we dive into the latest developments in technology, pharmaceuticals, and global markets, exploring the strategies of industry leaders and emerging trends.[00:01:18] World Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C) Oil consumption forecasts have been reduced due to slowdowns in China's economy, particularly in construction and infrastructure. The oil price remains stable due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Israel. Saudi Arabia and the UAE may increase oil supply to the market.[03:16] US Gas Demand and Supply (Exhibit B) Natural gas prices hit unprecedented lows in August due to surplus supply. Expectations are for prices to rise to the $3 range as we enter the November contract trading period.[04:04] US Government Revenues and Expenses (Exhibit A) The Treasury Department projects a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal 2024. Interest rates are discussed, with expectations that they will not return to post-2008 levels due to ongoing debt issuance needs.[09:39] Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Page 15) The story of Vertex's founder, his mission to combat disease, and the company's journey from its inception to becoming a leader in cystic fibrosis treatment is explored. The importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and technological innovation in drug discovery is highlighted.[15:03] TSMC and BYD (Page 3) The similarities between TSMC and BYD are discussed, including their ability to leverage government support and their focus on cutting-edge technology and talent acquisition. The potential threat BYD poses to Tesla is briefly mentioned.[17:42] Retail Businesses (Page 8) Home Depot's results indicate a weak consumer market. The impact of interest rates on the home improvement sector is discussed.[18:31] Harrow Earnings Update (Page 20) Harrow reported strong earnings, exceeding sales expectations. The company's five-year plan and potential for continued growth in the ophthalmic pharmaceutical market are discussed.[20:34] Lantheus Earnings Recap (Page 15) Lantheus reported good results but also increased expenses, particularly in R&D and sales staff, in preparation for new drug launches.[21:50] Hyperscale Capex (Pages 1, 2, 3, 4) The continued high capital expenditure of large tech companies, particularly in AI and data centers, is discussed. The potential impact on Nvidia's future sales and profitability is explored.[27:10] Google's Antitrust Ruling (Page 1) The recent antitrust ruling against Google is discussed, including potential remedies and the impact on Google's agreement with Apple for default search engine status.[29:49] Google Pixel 9 Phone and Gemini Launch (Page 1) Google's announcement of their new Pixel phones and the Gemini AI product is covered, comparing it to Apple's upcoming offerings and discussing potential pricing strategies for AI features.In conclusion, this episode provides a comprehensive look at key developments across multiple industries, offering insights into market trends, technological advancements, and regulatory challenges facing major companies.$TSM $BYDDY $TSLA $VRTX $HD $LOW $HROW $LNTH $NVDA $MSFT $GOOGL $AAPL $META $AMZN $ORCLThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

ShownotesIn this episode of the Telltales Podcast, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence explore recent market events, discuss key companies across various sectors, and analyze their cash flow characteristics.[00:00:00] Introduction and Recent News (Exhibit C)Hunt discusses the recent antitrust judgment against Google and its potential impact on Apple. The hosts briefly touch on oil and gas market conditions.[03:21] Natural Gas Market Update (Exhibit B)Hunt provides an overview of the current weak state of the natural gas market, with prices at historic lows and ample storage.[03:52] U.S. Government Finances (Exhibit A)The hosts discuss the challenges facing the U.S. government's fiscal situation, including rising interest expenses and the need for spending cuts.[05:22] Healthcare Companies Update (Page 15)The team reviews recent developments for Lantheus and Vertex Pharmaceuticals, noting positive outlooks for both companies.[07:23] Industrial and Manufacturing Sector (Page 14)Hunt analyzes the performance of Caterpillar, Deere, Generac, TransDigm, and Fastenal, highlighting their business models and cash flow characteristics.[10:36] Financial Institutions Overview (Page 13)The hosts discuss JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, examining their valuations and dividend policies.[12:13] Japanese Yen Carry Trade ExplanationHunt and the team provide a detailed explanation of the recent market dislocation caused by the unwinding of the yen carry trade.[17:31] Semiconductor Industry Deep Dive (Page 3)The hosts discuss NVIDIA's recent challenges and the overall state of the semiconductor industry, including Intel's struggles to remain competitive.[27:04] Tech Giants and Antitrust Concerns (Page 1)The episode concludes with a brief discussion of the recent antitrust judgment against Google and its potential implications for other tech giants.Don't forget to subscribe to our email list at telltales.us to receive our weekly cash flow memo, covering 80 companies, U.S. government finances, and the energy sector!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:56 - Market Update: Oil and Natural Gas• Oil pricing weakening; 4.4 million barrels of excess production capacity not being produced• Saudi Arabia and UAE may increase production in fall, causing near-month prices to drop• Natural gas trading very low due to oversupply; prices expected to improve in winter00:03:10 - U.S. Political Landscape and Budget• Discussion of Vice President Harris• Speculation on expiring Trump tax cuts and their impact on income tax revenue00:04:20 - Company Analysis: Retail and Transportation• 5 Below facing challenges with CEO departure• Uber's future uncertain with AI and Robotaxi developments• FedEx and UPS competing against Amazon's logistics• Nike struggling but maintains strong balance sheet• Costco performing well but expensive at 50x free cashflow00:11:39 - Restaurant and Beverage Stocks• McDonald's and Starbucks struggling with same-store sales growth• Chipotle rebounding strongly after E. coli issues• Detailed discussion on Celsius Holdings' growth challenges and market position00:15:03 - Healthcare Sector Update• Vertex Pharmaceuticals' VX548 non-opioid pain treatment submission accepted by FDA• PDUFA date set for January 30, 2025• Discussion on effectiveness compared to opioids and market potential00:16:20 - Tech Sector: Microsoft Earnings and AI Developments• Microsoft's earnings meet expectations but fall short of some predictions• AI Copilot sales lower than expected due to capacity constraints• Plans for increased capital expenditure to support AI infrastructure00:20:39 - AI in Finance: JPMorgan's Language Model• JPMorgan developing its own AI language model for internal use• Discussion on potential use of NVIDIA servers and open-source models like Meta's Llama00:24:58 - Future of Search and AI• Speculation on how search might evolve in the next 2-3 years• Potential shift towards chat interfaces and cited references• Challenges with data sources and closed social networks00:29:06 - Apple's AI Strategy and Future of Mobile• Apple's delayed AI capabilities for iPhone 16 Pro• Potential impact on Apple's business model, particularly Google revenue sharing• Discussion on conflicts between app developers and AI assistants00:31:42 - Conclusion and Next Week's TopicsFIVE 0.00%↑ UBER 0.00%↑ UNH 0.00%↑ FCX 0.00%↑ ALB 0.00%↑ CF 0.00%↑ NEE 0.00%↑ FDX 0.00%↑ UPS 0.00%↑ NKE 0.00%↑ COST 0.00%↑ MCD 0.00%↑ SBUX 0.00%↑ CMG 0.00%↑ CELH 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ JPM 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes00:00 - Introduction00:46 - Oil Market UpdateDiscussion of 2025 oil supply and demand projectionsEstimated 104.5 million barrels per day of supply and demandBreakdown of crude oil vs other liquids in production figuresSaudi Arabia and UAE holding back 3.5 million barrels of surplus productionCaution advised on investing in oil producers currently03:00 - Natural Gas MarketCurrent low prices for natural gas Storage levels 500 BCF above 5-year averagePotential for price improvement later in the yearAdvice to wait before investing in natural gas producers05:00 - U.S. Government Cash Flow StatementAnalysis of CBO forecasts and estimatesCurrent deficit running at about $1.5 trillion in full employment economyChallenges in reducing spending or increasing revenueDiscussion of potential impacts on corporate taxes, tariffs, and individual taxesConcerns about long-term deficit sustainability10:44 - Healthcare Sector UpdateProjection of 8% increase in medical costs for next yearGovernment actions against Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs)UnitedHealth Group earnings growth driven by PBM business (OptumRx)12:25 - CrowdStrike Software Issue ExplanationDetailed breakdown of the cybersecurity software update that caused widespread crashesImpact on various industries including airlines and banksTechnical explanation of the bug and its effectsDiscussion of potential fallout for CrowdStrike and cybersecurity industry19:48 - Tesla AnalysisReview of Tesla's recent financial resultsDiscussion of Tesla's various business segments: automotive, autopilot/robotaxi, humanoid robotsValuation considerations for Tesla stockUpcoming robotaxi event on October 10thAnalysis of Tesla's automotive business value and potentialConsideration of geopolitical factors affecting factory locations29:40 - NVIDIA and Tech SpendingBrief discussion on NVIDIA's chip sales and marginsGoogle/Alphabet's continued heavy CapEx programImplications for NVIDIA's future sales and market reaction31:26 - Closing RemarksThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com