Telltales

Shownotes00:00 - Introduction02:24 - Natural Gas Market UpdateToo much gas in storage causing low near-month pricesWarm weather across US impacting demandPower prices held down by cheap gas pricesChicago City Gate price unusually close to Henry Hub04:01 - US Government FinancesReview of Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts/estimatesDiscussion of accuracy issues with CBO numbersGoal to reduce "all other" spending category to improve debt-to-GDP ratio07:03 - Healthcare Companies ReviewAddition of Harrow Health to watchlistHarrow's growth plans and potential upside discussedEli Lilly's strong performance in pharmaceutical sectorVertex Pharmaceuticals licensing deal for gene therapy researchLantheus Holdings positive developments:CMS draft guidance on radio diagnostics billingAcquisition of new Alzheimer's diagnostic technology18:18 - Semiconductor Industry UpdatesASML criticized for sending equipment to ChinaPotential impact of sanctions on ASML's businessDiscussion of Taiwan's importance in semiconductor manufacturingTrump's comments on Taiwan's strategic importance23:46 - Cybersecurity and Cloud ComputingSnowflake's reputation impacted by customer data breachesGoogle's plans to acquire cloud security startupImplications for cloud market competition27:06 - Tesla and Electric VehiclesDelay of Tesla's robotaxi reveal to OctoberSpeculation on design changes for Model 2/robotaxi platform28:11 - Tech Giants and Clean EnergyMicrosoft-Occidental carbon credit offset dealTech companies reassessing carbon offset strategiesChallenges of powering data centers with clean energy31:14 - AI Impact on Software CompaniesDiscussion of how AI is affecting various software providersServiceNow's AI integration for customer service highlighted32:56 - Closing RemarksThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:48 - Energy Market UpdateReview of OPEC and IEA supply/demand numbers for 2024Discussion of Saudi Arabia and UAE's production capacity and disciplineNatural gas prices and production updatesLNG export facilities and delays (Freeport, Golden Pass)06:02 - Healthcare Sector DiscussionFTC's 70-page report criticizing pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs)Top 3 PBMs control 80% of prescription flow in USPotential regulatory risks for UnitedHealth, CVS, and CignaVertex and Lantheus UpdatesLantheus: Positive CMS guidance on reimbursement for radio diagnostic testsVertex: Brief mention of preclinical data on potential sickle cell treatmentNew Healthcare Company Spotlight: HarrowSpecializes in ophthalmic care and anestheticsCEO background and capital allocation strategyInnovative approach to R&D through spinoffs (Eaton, Melt, Surface Ophthalmics)22:03 - AI and Tech DiscussionOpenAI, Microsoft, and AppleApple dropping observer status on OpenAI boardSpeculation on potential IPO for OpenAIMicrosoft's investment and revenue rights in OpenAIXAI and Competition in AIDiscussion of Elon Musk's XAI catching up to OpenAI and GoogleImportance of data access and compute power in AI developmentPotential for new AI techniques beyond large language models29:13 - Electric Vehicle Industry UpdatesTesla's new Full Self-Driving software integrating highway and street modelsBYD setting up factory in Turkey to avoid tariffsChinese EV manufacturers' expansion into Europe and potential US entry31:21 - Closing RemarksThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes00:00:00 - Introduction00:01:10 - Oil and Gas Market UpdateDiscussion of OPEC and IEA reports on oil production and demand growth forecastsAnalysis of differences between OPEC and IEA projectionsNear-term natural gas prices weak due to recent heat wave not significantly impacting power pricesMarcellus producers EQT and Chesapeake curtailed production, now back online00:03:30 - U.S. Government Spending and DeficitPoor performance by Joe Biden in recent debate sparks speculation about his candidacyDiscussion of $1.6 trillion overspending forecast for 2024 fiscal yearConcerns about U.S. dollar's position as world reserve currency due to continued deficitsDifficulty in curtailing deficits highlightedFor an in depth perspective on Trump, see the All-In podcast interview and followup.00:07:15 - Interest Rates and Federal Reserve PolicyAnalysis of potential long-term interest rates in relation to inflationDiscussion of quantitative easing and tightening by the Federal ReserveCritique of Federal Reserve's decision to slow balance sheet reduction00:12:54 - Healthcare Sector UpdateFocus on weight loss medicines and patent expirations (e.g. Semaglutide patent expiring March 2026)Competitive landscape for GLP-1 drugs and potential new compounds in developmentDiscussion of Lantheus' PET imaging product for tau protein tangles in Alzheimer's research00:21:54 - Tech Sector News: Apple and AIApple's potential board seat on OpenAI and implications for MicrosoftSpeculation on Apple's AI strategy and integration into iPhonesDiscussion of power requirements and CO2 emissions from data centers running AI models00:27:56 - Oakcliff Sailing UpdateBrief interlude with update from Jenny Duclay at Oakcliff Sailing00:30:15 - Nvidia and GPU AvailabilityAnalysis of A100 and H100 GPU availability in data centersDiscussion of investment payback period for GPUs (approximately 1 year)Continued strong demand for GPUs in data centers00:32:14 - Energy Infrastructure and Data CentersImpact of heat waves on power demand and natural gas pricesChallenges in approving new data centers due to power requirementsPotential for citizen pushback against rising electricity prices due to data center demand00:34:18 - Tesla Production UpdateQ2 vehicle production numbers lower year-over-year but higher than analyst expectationsStrong performance in Chinese production and deliveriesDiscussion of competitive landscape for EVs and potential growth rate00:35:09 - Closing RemarksThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:55 - Oil and Gas Market UpdateOPEC+ meeting impact on oil prices: WTI dropped from $80 to $74, now back to $80Geopolitical risk premium due to Gaza conflict and potential Israel-Hezbollah tensionsNatural gas prices remain low despite heat waveGas production running at 100 bcf/day, down from 104 bcf/day in NovemberNew pipeline from West Texas to Gulf Coast opening in August05:38 - US Government FinancesNeither presidential candidate likely to address need for increased taxes or reduced spendingSocial Security and Medicare trust funds projected to run low in 4-5 yearsBreakdown of federal revenue sources: individual income tax, corporate tax, payroll taxesChallenges in raising additional revenue or cutting major spending categories09:12 - Healthcare Sector UpdateVertex Pharmaceuticals' promising phase 1/2 results for type 1 diabetes treatment11 of 12 patients insulin-independent at 90 days, 3 patients still independent at 1 yearEli Lilly seeking FDA approval for GLP-1 drug to treat sleep apneaGLP-1 drugs on FDA shortage list, allowing compounding pharmacies to produce versionsHims & Hers Health to offer compounded semaglutide, stock rallied on news15:39 - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Deep DiveStrategy of targeting undertreated diseases with smaller patient populationsContinuous improvement in cystic fibrosis treatmentsPipeline includes treatments for kidney disease, pain, and type 1 diabetesNon-opioid pain medication in phase 3 trials with potential for nerve pain treatmentAcquisition strategy combining technologies (e.g. stem cells and encapsulation for diabetes)21:15 - Tesla and EV Market AnalysisBreaking down Tesla's valuation between automotive business and other venturesMorgan Stanley price target of $310/share, only $105 attributed to automotiveOther potential value drivers: full self-driving/robotaxi service, humanoid robotsChallenges in EV market: higher interest rates, increased competitionComparison to Apple's ecosystem and customer loyaltyChinese competition in low-cost EV production29:21 - Wrap-up and Next Week's PreviewThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

[00:00:00] Intro[00:00:49] Exhibit C - Oil Demand and Supply[00:02:11] Exhibit B - Natural Gas Production[00:03:42] Exhibit A - Government Deficit[00:04:55] Apple's AI Approach: The discussion turns to Apple's measured approach to AI, focusing on developing a small on-device model and leveraging the platform to bring in external models like OpenAI. Mike believes this demonstrates Apple's strengths in secure and sensitive handling of personal data. The OpenAI partnership is likely a freemium model where Apple takes a revenue share of premium subscriptions. This could become a meaningful part of Apple's services business.[00:09:52] Microsoft vs Apple AI Strategies: Microsoft is taking an enterprise approach, integrating Copilot across its software suite. OpenAI's business through the Apple channel will likely be more consumer-driven. The cost of inference on newer AI models is substantially higher than older ones, but will decrease with new NVIDIA hardware generations.[00:11:49] Monetizing AI: OpenAI's monetization paths include consumer and enterprise offerings and APIs for other companies to integrate AI capabilities. Many software companies are exploring AI enhancements for their products, such as generating email responses in sales or chatbots for customer support.[00:14:03] OpenAI's Future: Jason believes Microsoft will likely acquire OpenAI at some point. Google's response to Apple's AI moves and the potential impact on search is discussed. Technology often sees mainstream adoption after Apple integrates it into their products.[00:16:55] Oracle's AI Infrastructure Play: Oracle is building a massive data center entirely populated with NVIDIA chips for AI training, with half the capacity pre-sold to Microsoft. This may be to support the increased compute needs from the Apple-OpenAI deal. Larry Ellison is inserting Oracle into the AI supply chain by securing preferential access to NVIDIA chips and providing GPU compute to hyperscalers. Data center capacity, rather than GPUs themselves, may become the choke point.[00:19:16] Crypto Miners and Power Infrastructure: The discussion briefly touches on how crypto miners with existing power interconnects could be acquired for their infrastructure to support AI data centers, as getting power from utilities to new facilities can take years.[00:20:29] Oakcliff Sailing Sponsorship Message: A brief sponsorship message from Oakcliff Sailing, featuring testimonials from sailors David Hervey and Kate Mattiello about their training experiences and Olympic aspirations.[00:21:04] Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake: Jason mentions a hack related to Snowflake customer datasets, potentially due to a compromised sales engineer account without proper multi-factor authentication. This could slow down Snowflake's sales process if it leads to more stringent security requirements when engaging customers.[00:25:41] Healthcare News - Celsius, Eli Lilly, Vertex: In healthcare, Celsius' growth was reported as slowing based on Nielsen data, but this may be due to data gathering changes. Eli Lilly announced positive trial results for an Alzheimer's treatment, more effective than the current standard but still with a low bar. Vertex has started submitting data to the FDA for their pain medicine, with potential approval by end of year.[00:29:05] NVIDIA News: NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang made a high-profile visit to Taiwan, and the company announced a 10-for-1 stock split, possibly positioning for inclusion in the Dow Jones index. TSMC's monthly reports show steady improvements.[00:30:58] Streaming and Sports Content: The hosts plan to discuss streaming and sports content rights in the next episode, with the NBA parceling out their events to likely partners Comcast and Disney.[00:32:14] Closing Remarks This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES00:00:00 - Introduction00:01:02 - OPEC+ Meeting and Oil PricesDiscussion on the recent OPEC+ meeting in Riyadh and its impact on oil prices.Analysis of Saudi Arabia's strategy to phase in withheld production and its implications for global oil markets.00:05:39 - U.S. Government FinancesExamination of U.S. government spending, interest rates, and the budget deficit.Discussion on the need for bipartisan efforts to reduce spending.00:06:00 - Software Companies and AIImpact of AI and large language models on software companies like ServiceNow, Snowflake, and Oracle.Challenges in justifying increased IT budgets for AI integration.00:11:31 - NVIDIA's Market PositionAnalysis of NVIDIA's growth and its dominance in the GPU market.Discussion on the potential for GPUs to replace CPUs and the implications for software providers.00:18:32 - Semiconductor IndustryExamination of the semiconductor industry's supply chain and the role of companies like ASML.Discussion on the challenges faced by Chinese fabs and the impact of government incentives.00:20:22 - NVIDIA's Financial PerformanceDetailed analysis of NVIDIA's revenue growth and free cash flow.Discussion on the sustainability of NVIDIA's market position and future growth prospects.00:23:44 - Data Center MarketAnalysis of the data center market and NVIDIA's role in it.Discussion on the potential for NVIDIA to increase its market share in data center CapEx.00:26:08 - Healthcare NewsBrief discussion on the FDA's draft guidance on regulation of platform technologies and its implications for the healthcare industry.00:28:14 - ConclusionThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes[00:00:00] Introduction[00:01:31] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandDiscussion: Analysis of the current oil price, risk premiums, and surplus capacity.Key Points:Risk premiums influenced by geopolitical tensions in Gaza, the Middle East, and Ukraine.Surplus capacity and its impact on future oil prices.[00:02:57] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/SupplyDiscussion: Examination of the natural gas market, including oversupply and production adjustments.Key Points:Dry gas production forecasts and curtailments.Impact of new pipelines from the Permian to the Gulf Coast.Volatility in the power and gas markets due to reliance on renewable energy sources.[00:04:14] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and ExpensesDiscussion: The US deficit, its impact on the dollar, and potential diversification of global central bank reserves.Key Points:Challenges in reducing the deficit to $1.5 trillion.Potential shift away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency.Federal Reserve's policy rate and its implications for the economy.[00:07:50] Energy Industry Consolidations: Conoco to Acquire Marathon OilDiscussion: The logic behind mergers in the oil industry.Key Points:Conoco's acquisition of Marathon Oil.The necessity for upstream companies to increase production or merge.[00:08:37] How to Build a Large Language ModelDiscussion: The process of building large language models (LLMs) and the importance of data sources.Key Points:Historical data sources like Encyclopedia Britannica and scientific journals.The role of modern data sources like Reddit, Twitter, and Wikipedia.Challenges in sourcing data for LLMs in a closed web environment.[00:13:43] How Big is Google's Advantage in Source Data?Discussion: Google's advantage in LLMs due to its extensive search database.Key Points:Google's infrastructure for crawling and indexing the internet.Comparison with other data sources like Twitter.[00:16:34] How LLMs are Challenging Mainstream MediaDiscussion: The impact of LLMs on traditional news media and paywalls.Key Points:Potential decline in revenue for newspapers due to AI-generated news.Legal challenges and the future of paywalls.[00:19:39] How is Pharmaceutical Research Approaching AI?Discussion: The use of AI in pharmaceutical research and data security.Key Points:Outsourcing data aggregation and software solutions.The role of cloud providers in securing healthcare data.[00:24:01] Apple's Choice Between OpenAI and GoogleDiscussion: Apple's potential partnerships with OpenAI and Google for AI integration.Key Points:The strategic importance of data sources.The implications of Apple's choice on its ecosystem and user experience.[00:26:39] If Apple is Slow to Add AI Features, Will Samsung/Android Capture More High-End Market Share?Discussion: The competition between Apple and Samsung in the high-end smartphone market.Key Points:User loyalty to the Apple ecosystem.The impact of AI capabilities.[00:30:10] Nvidia's Epic Cashflow RunDiscussion: Nvidia's financial performance and market dominance.Key Points:Nvidia's growth in revenue and free cash flow.The company's market value compared to other tech giants.The role of Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML in Nvidia's success.[00:33:28] ConclusionSummary: Wrap-up of the episode and a preview of the next discussion on Nvidia's latest earnings.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Welcome to the Telltales Podcast, where we delve into the pivotal role of cashflow in investing. Hosted by Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence, this episode covers a wide range of topics from global oil supply and demand to the latest in tech and healthcare. Below are the detailed summaries of each chapter discussed in this episode.[00:00:00] Introduction[00:01:13] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandMiddle East Update: Helicopter crash in Iran killing the president and foreign minister, potential impact on elections.Gaza Conflict: Israel's military actions in Gaza and potential impacts on oil risk premiums.Ukraine War: Russian advances in Northeast Ukraine and its implications for oil prices.Risk Premium: Discussion on the risk premium in oil prices and factors that could influence it.[00:04:00] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/SupplyNatural Gas Trends: Improvement in natural gas prices and future projections.LNG Demand: Stability in LNG demand and its impact on supply and demand balance.Futures Market: Explanation of contango and backwardation in the oil market.[00:07:43] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and ExpensesDeficit Update: Challenges in calculating the deficit due to loan forgiveness.Spending Trends: Analysis of US government spending from 2019 to 2023, including COVID-19 impacts.Future Projections: Potential spending cuts and their implications for future budgets.[00:09:43] Nvidia Earnings Day & Cashflow RisksNvidia's Growth: Discussion on Nvidia's market position and future growth prospects.Tech Spending: Analysis of tech companies' CapEx budgets and their impact on Nvidia.AI Data Centers: Sovereign data centers and their influence on Nvidia's business.[00:11:53] Can the West Prevent China from Running TSMC?Taiwan Semiconductor: Potential scenarios if China takes control of TSMC.ASML's Role: Discussion on the feasibility of disabling TSMC's equipment remotely.[00:13:02] Are AMD and Intel Left Behind?Market Risks: Challenges faced by AMD and Intel in the evolving tech landscape.Microsoft's Shift: Impact of Microsoft's move to ARM processors on AMD and Intel.[00:17:05] Meta Q1 Earnings Reaction & Outlook[00:19:24] Oracle Cerner and Oracle Cloud PlatformOracle's Strategy: Evaluation of Oracle's acquisition of Cerner and its position in the cloud market.Cloud Competition: Comparison with other cloud providers like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud.[00:26:46] Healthcare Updates: Google Alphafold 3, VRTX & Drug DevelopmentAlphaFold 3: Overview of Google's AlphaFold 3 and its implications for drug development.Future of Medicine: Potential for AI to accelerate preclinical research and reduce costs.[00:29:13] Conclusion**Disclaimer:** The views expressed on this podcast are the hosts' alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any security. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.Thank you for tuning in to the Telltales Podcast. Don't forget to subscribe and join our email list for more insights on cashflow and investing. Stay tuned for our next episode!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode of the Telltales Podcast, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence, aka Mr. Cashflow, delve into the crucial role of cashflow in investing, particularly focusing on the oil supply and demand dynamics, the energy sector, and the implications of geopolitical events on market risk. They also discuss U.S. government finances, investment strategies, and the tech landscape, including the competitive developments between OpenAI and Google, Apple's potential moves in AI, and the evolving digital payment ecosystem. Corporate finance strategies, market predictions, and the increasing influence of high-speed internet options like Starlink are also covered. The conversation wraps up with speculation on the future of mobile communication and the role of screens, signaling a shift towards more audio-based and AI-enhanced interfaces. This comprehensive discussion provides insights into current economic indicators, investment considerations, technological advancements, and the ongoing transformations in the business landscape.00:59 Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND04:11 Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY05:07 Exhibit A: US GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSES05:38 Page 1: Open AI & Google competing for Apple business?11:46 Is Meta a contender for the Apple deal?13:22 Page 5: Comcast to offer streaming bundle14:58 Page 4: Comcast v. Disney Streaming Bundles15:54 Page 3: Intel Debt Stacking Up17:25 Page 3: TSMC April Sales Report19:01 Page 7: MA / V / PYPL22:39 Page 16: MCD / SBUX / CMG / CELH / HLT27:00 Page 1: Elon Musk & Tesla News32:44 Page 1: Are screens going the way of the dodo?This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Welcome to the "Telltales Podcast," where we delve into the intricacies of cashflow and its critical role in driving the economy and investment performance. Join hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and our co-host Hunt Lawrence, as we explore various facets of financial insights and market dynamics. Below, find detailed summaries of the main topics discussed in each chapter of this episode:---[00:00:00] Introduction[00:00:51] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandAnalysis of the current oil market with a focus on surplus capacity and demand growth.Impact of geopolitical risks on oil prices, including situations in Gaza, Ukraine, and the Middle East.Recommendations for oil investors based on the expected changes in the risk premium.[00:02:59] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/SupplyExamination of the U.S. gas market, highlighting the discrepancies between supply and demand.Discussion on the price necessary to overcome the decline curve and add significant supply.Advice for gas company investors in light of current market conditions.[00:05:21] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and ExpensesPredictions on U.S. tax changes depending on the upcoming presidential election outcomes.Strategies for investors to cope with potential tax increases by investing in long-term holdings.[00:07:57] The Impact of Political Events on InvestmentsReflections on the presidential election's influence on market stability and investment strategies.Commentary on how U.S. governance might be perceived post-election.[00:08:52] Tesla and Artificial IntelligenceDiscussion on Tesla's role in advancing artificial intelligence and its implications for investors.Analysis of Tesla's data utilization from vehicle operations and its potential market impact.[00:16:36] Free Cash Flow Analysis Across Big Tech CompaniesComparative analysis of free cash flow among leading tech giants like Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla.Future projections for Tesla's financial growth and its comparison with other major companies.[00:22:34] Apple’s AI ChallengeThe hosts discuss whether or not Apple is behind on AI[00:28:25] Closing Remarks---Thank you for tuning into the "Telltale Podcast." For more insights and detailed analyses, subscribe to our channel and join our email list at telltales.usThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESWelcome to another episode of Telltales. Join our hosts, Hunt Lawrence, Jason Wallace, and Mike Nicoletti, as they discuss cashflow and its pivotal role in investing. Here’s a breakdown of what we covered in this episode:[00:00:34] Meet Mike & Jason in Omaha at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual MeetingDiscussion on the upcoming Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha.Networking opportunities at the event.[00:01:40] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMANDAnalysis of the global oil supply with a focus on surplus capacity held off by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.Impact of reduced Russian oil production due to ongoing conflicts.Implications on oil prices if withheld supplies were released.[00:02:24] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLYExamination of U.S. natural gas supply and demand.Discussion on production curtailment by major producers in the Marcellus Shale.Insights into the natural gas market dynamics and pricing.[00:03:49] Exhibit A: US GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSESOverview of U.S. government revenues and expenses.Discussion on the recent foreign aid package and its impact on the federal budget.Concerns about the lack of financial offsets in government spending.[00:04:34] Exhibit A: TaxesDebate on the feasibility and constitutionality of a proposed wealth tax.Potential implications of tax changes on investment and economic growth.[00:05:51] Exhibit A: Federal Funds Rate Held SteadyCommentary on the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate.Discussion on real interest rates and their impact on the economy and investments.[00:11:07] Page 1: AAPL / AMZN / GOOG / MSFT / TSLAEarnings updates and significant news from major tech companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla.Strategic movements within these companies and their market implications.[00:11:20] Page 1: TSLA 0.00%↑ - Tesla's China StrategyDiscussion on Tesla's data management strategy in China.Comparison with TikTok's data handling and implications for user privacy and corporate strategy.[00:13:31] Page 1: TSLA 0.00%↑ , AAPL 0.00%↑ - Consumer Preferences in ChinaAnalysis of consumer behavior in China, particularly regarding domestic vs. foreign brands.Impact on companies like Tesla and Apple.[00:14:49] Page 1: TSLA 0.00%↑ Reduces Supercharger Station Growth and Cuts StaffTesla's strategic decision to reduce growth in supercharger stations.Discussion on the economic and strategic factors leading to this decision.[00:20:23] Page 1: Is Google falling behind OpenAI?Exploration of Google's position in AI development compared to OpenAI.Discussion on strategic decisions in technology and AI by major corporations.[00:21:54] Page 1: GOOG 0.00%↑ - Will Android Steal Marketshare from Apple?Predictions and analysis on the potential market shifts between Android and Apple devices.Impact of AI features on consumer preferences and market dynamics.[00:24:09] Page 1: AAPL 0.00%↑ - When is WWDC?Announcement of the upcoming Apple Worldwide Developers Conference and expectations.[00:24:26] Page 1: AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ Cloud Growth on backs of NVDA 0.00%↑ Discussion on the growth of cloud services at Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, facilitated by NVIDIA technology.Insights into the financial and strategic impacts of these developments.[00:27:22] Page 3: NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASMLDetailed analysis of NVIDIA's financial performance and market position.Comparison with other major tech firms like AMD, Intel, TSMC, and ASML.[00:31:19] Page 15: PFE 0.00%↑ turning things around?Examination of Pfizer's recent financial performance and strategic directions.Discussion on the broader pharmaceutical industry and market trends.Thank you for tuning into "Telltales"! Don’t forget to subscribe!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES00:01:05 Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND: Discussion on recent geopolitical events affecting oil prices and their impact on global oil supply and demand.00:04:03 Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY: Analysis of the U.S. natural gas market, including production rates and future demand projections.00:07:16 Exhibit A: US GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSES: Discussion on U.S. government spending, revenue trends, and fiscal policies.00:08:33 Page 1: TSLA - Earnings Review & FSD 12: Overview of Tesla's earnings, Full Self-Driving technology, and market implications.00:15:49 Page 1: TSLA - Tesla Full Self Driving Revenue Model: Discussion on Tesla's Full Self-Driving revenue model and pricing strategies.00:17:12 Page 1: TSLA - Tesla Datacenter: Insights into Tesla's data center strategy and its potential impacts on business efficiency.00:18:43 Page 1: Will Tesla license FSD to other auto manufacturers?: Discussion on the potential for Tesla to license its Full Self-Driving technology to other manufacturers.00:20:45 Page 1: Tesla FSD Gross Margin: Analysis of the financial implications of Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology on its business model.00:22:50 Page 15: Vertex's Promising Pipeline ($VRTX): Discussion on Vertex Pharmaceutical's pipeline and strategic initiatives.00:26:52 TSLA 0.00%↑ vs VRTX 0.00%↑ - who could double first?: Comparative analysis of Tesla and Vertex Pharmaceutical's market potential and growth prospects.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

ShownotesThis episode of Telltales covers several key topics related to investing, energy markets, and the pharmaceutical industry. Here's a summary of the main discussions with timestamps for the chapters:[00:00:54] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMANDThe hosts discuss the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and how the withdrawal of Israeli troops could impact oil prices. Hunt mentions that with Russian oil production down by at least 1 million barrels per day due to the Ukraine conflict, and OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE holding back supply, the oil market remains vulnerable to supply shocks, keeping prices elevated in the mid-$80s range. [00:03:45] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLYThe conversation shifts to the natural gas market, where prices have been holding up well. Hunt highlights the potential for increased power demand from data centers, especially those with GPUs, which could drive natural gas consumption higher, supporting prices. He also notes the supply discipline from major producers like EQT, which has curtailed production to balance the market. [00:05:38] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSESThe hosts analyze the macroeconomic environment, discussing the impact of higher inflation, continued government deficit spending, and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Hunt raises concerns about the potential effect of higher interest rates on stock market valuations, as was observed in 2022 when valuations of high-growth companies declined significantly. [1][00:08:15] Page 1: Higher For Longer impact on TeslaThe discussion turns to Tesla, with the hosts debating the company's valuation in the context of higher interest rates. [00:16:27] Page 13: JPM/MS/GSHunt analyzes the financial performance and valuations of major banks like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs. He highlights their ability to generate consistent free cash flow, buy back shares, and pay dividends, which has resulted in attractive returns for long term holders of the stocks.[00:22:44] Page 15: PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTXThe hosts discuss the challenges faced by large pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer in replacing revenue from expiring patents and developing new blockbuster drugs. They also compare the prospects of Moderna and BioNTech, the companies behind the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, and their efforts to develop personalized cancer vaccines and other therapies. Jason and Mike share their perspectives on which company might be better positioned for success in this area. This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

00:00:39 Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND 00:03:08 Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY 00:05:25 Exhibit A: US GOVT REVENUES AND EXPENSES 00:06:43 China Risk Discussion 00:07:33 Page 20: UBER / DASH / ABNB / FIVE / ETSY 00:08:24 Page 19: UNH / CVS / REGN / BIIB / LLY 00:09:12 Page 18: FCX / ALB / CF / NEE 00:10:26 Page 17: FDX / UPS / NKE / COST 00:11:23 Page 16: MCD / SBUX / CMG / CELH / HLT 00:12:36 Page 15: PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTX 00:13:30 Page 14: CAT / DE / GNRC / TDG / FAST 00:15:07 Page 13: JPM / MS / GS 00:15:41 Page 12: AR / EQT / CHK / AM 00:16:13 Page 11: EOG / MGY / PR / FANG 00:16:38 Page 10: KMI / EPD / ET / WES 00:16:44 Page 9: XOM / CVX / COP / OXY / LNG 00:17:37 Page 8: WMT / TGT / LOW / HD / KMX 00:18:28 Page 7: MA / V / PYPL 00:18:51 Page 6: T / VZ / TMUS 00:19:16 Page 5: CHTR / CMCSA 00:19:23 Page 4: NFLX / DIS / META 00:20:49 Page 3: NVDA / AMD / INTC / TSMC / ASML 00:24:40 Page 2: MSFT / CRM / SNOW / ORCL 00:24:59 Page 1: AAPL / AMZN / GOOG / MSFT / TSLA 00:29:33 Page 1: Discussion on whether Tesla could trade down to $100/share valuation. $UBER $DASH $ABNB $FIVE $ETSY $UNH $CVS $REGN $BIIB $LLY $FCX $ALB $CF $NEE $FDX $UPS $NKE $COST $MCD $SBUX $CMG $CELH $HLT $PFE $MRNA $LNTH $BNTX $VRTX $CAT $DE $GNRC $TDG $FAST $JPM $MS $GS $AR $EQT $CHK $AM $EOG $MGY $PR $FANG $KMI $EPD $ET $WES $XOM $CVX $COP $OXY $LNG $WMT $TGT $LOW $HD $KMX $MA $V $PYPL $T $VZ $TMUS $CHTR $CMCSA $NFLX $DIS $META $NVDA $AMD $INTC $TSMC $ASML $MSFT $CRM $SNOW $ORCL $AAPL $AMZN $GOOG $TSLAThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

The episode covers a range of topics around geopolitics, macroeconomics, antitrust regulation of big tech companies, the energy sector, and the healthcare industry. Significant time is spent analyzing the Microsoft antitrust case, potential partnership between Apple and Google on AI, China's push for domestic chip production, and a DoJ investigation into UnitedHealthcare.[00:00:38] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand- Ukraine drones damaging Russian refineries, reducing Russian oil production- Potential for Saudi Arabia to increase production by 3 million barrels per day- Threat from Houthis in Yemen to attack Saudi/UAE oil facilities[00:02:35] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply - Lower US gas production forecasts for 2024- Impact of new pipeline opening in August on Waha gas prices- Increasing power demand from LNG exports and data centers- Climate activists opposing fossil fuels and carbon capture[00:05:13] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses- House Republicans passing spending bills, curtailing spending- Hopes for reduced deficit of $1.4 trillion in 2024/2025[00:06:18] Views on Data Center Power Demand- Potential for higher than forecast power demand from data centers- Debate on whether power should come from natural gas or nuclear[00:09:57] Page 1: Microsoft's DoJ Antitrust Settlement and Lost Decade- Discussing Microsoft's 2001 antitrust settlement with DoJ[1]- Oversight into Microsoft's software development slowed innovation- Impact on company's stock performance from 2001-2011[00:16:28] If Apple partners with Google on AI- Apple's alternatives if they want to use a large language model- Preference for running AI models locally vs in the cloud[00:20:38] Impact of China's move away from Intel/AMD CPUs- Implications for chip companies as China favors domestic sources[00:22:35] Is the EU better at policing big tech?- Comparing EU's antitrust approach vs US DoJ/FTC for big tech[00:26:35] Page 19: UNH/CVS/REGN/BIIB/LLY - DoJ investigation into UnitedHealthcare's practices with Optum- UnitedHealthcare hack impacting healthcare providers- Comparing UnitedHealthcare's performance to CVS HealthThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes [00:00:00] Introduction [00:01:02] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Discussion of rising oil prices due to drone attacks on Russian refineries and potential threats from Houthi rebels in Yemen Analysis of global oil supply numbers for 2023, highlighting oversupply situation if Saudi Arabia increases production Potential for downside in oil prices if Saudi Arabia raises output to 11 million barrels per day [00:03:29] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply Analysis of US natural gas production running at 102-104 bcf/d currently vs forecast of 104 bcf/d for 2024 Factors like shut-ins impacting production Increasing power demand for natural gas, driven by intermittent wind/solar sources Forecast showing tight supply/demand balance in 2025 [00:06:19] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses Discussion of proposed Biden administration budget with higher spending Analysis of deficit trends, with hopes of stabilizing around $1.4 trillion and gradual reduction Factors like curtailed spending, defense budget, and interest payments impacting deficit [00:10:07] Apple + Google AI Deal? Speculation on Apple using Google's Gemini language model for Siri assistant Potential licensing deal between Apple and Google for Gemini Monetization challenges for AI models like Gemini [00:13:44] Microsoft Acquihires Inflection AI Analysis of Microsoft's acquisition of Inflection AI, founded by former DeepMind employee Potential reasons like access to talent, hardware, and reducing reliance on OpenAI [00:16:40] Google Gemini's Impressive Context Window Discussion of Gemini's ability to process up to 1 million tokens (words) for context Advantages of larger context windows for summarization tasks [00:19:19] Nvidia's New AI Hardware Announcements Details on Nvidia's new GPU chips with 2.5x faster performance and optimizations for large language models Importance of Nvidia's NVLink networking technology for connecting multiple GPUs [00:21:57] Lantheus Update Brief update on Lantheus, a radiopharmaceutical company Acquisition of another radiopharmaceutical company in the industry Positive outlook on Lantheus' prostate cancer diagnostic Pylerify and future therapeutics [00:25:44] Vertex Update Update on Vertex Pharmaceuticals and their non-opioid pain medication pipeline Increasing state laws requiring opioid consultation before prescribing Vertex's strong cash flows from cystic fibrosis treatments [00:27:04] Biontech Earnings Discussion of BioNTech's disappointing COVID-19 vaccine sales Analysis of BioNTech's pipeline, including mRNA cancer vaccines and acquired antibody treatments Concerns about BioNTech's strategy for reinvesting cash flowsThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

00:00 Introduction This week’s episode draws fascinating parallels between investing in the energy and biotech sectors. 00:02:25 Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND If you look at supply of oil, there's clearly 3-4 million barrels a day too much supply capacity, mostly with Saudi Arabia, to meet demand. The question is, what price of oil would cause supply to come down so that it was within demand? The answer is quite a lot lower. If Saudi Arabia decided to produce the additional 3 million barrels, oil prices could drop at least 20% to below $60 per barrel. 00:05:31 Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Moving to exhibit B on gas pricing, production has flattened out in the 102-103 range. The storage change, the difference between demand and supply, was impossibly high at 23. The total surplus was 3 billion a day over 365 days, which is a trillion a year. The total amount of gas storage is only 3.8 trillion. Later this year, there will likely be forced well shut-ins, especially in the Marcellus region. You could see some impossibly low gas prices, which will make headlines, with gas prices received in the Marcellus potentially under $1. 00:07:14 Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES The Biden administration has come out with their budget, which is a political document. We cannot run a $1.5 trillion deficit indefinitely. The interest bill is now more than what we spend for defense, which is not sustainable. However, this is an election year, and the Biden administration has added $500 billion more spending than last year. Congress will never go along with it all, but it shows how irresponsible elected politicians can be when facing an election. 00:08:16 Energy Company Analysis Given the potential for a downdraft in oil prices and the storage build-up leading to potential involuntary shut-ins or very low prices, the hosts quickly cover the energy companies. The gas companies on page 12 (Antero, EQT, Chesapeake) are all behaving well, able to keep production flat or inclined a bit while spending about half their EBITDA. The oil companies on page 11 (EOG, Magnolia, Permian, Diamond Back) are doing fine at $75 oil, showing the same pattern of keeping production flat or inclined while spending about half their EBITDA on CapEx. The midstream companies on page 10 (Kinder Morgan, Enterprise, Energy Transfer, Western Midstream) won't be too affected by commodity price swings, as they have pretty predictable cash flows, but their debt levels are fairly high. The integrated companies on page 9 (Exxon, Chevron, Conoco, Occidental, Cheniere) are really good companies that can hold production flat and generate significant free cash flow, trading around 10x free cash flow. 00:10:49 Page 15: PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTX Shifting to healthcare, the hosts' two favorite names are Lantheus and Vertex Pharmaceutical. BioNTech is a sentimental favorite due to the virtuous Turkish couple that founded it. Both BioNTech and Moderna piled up a lot of cash from their COVID vaccines, but they don't have ongoing cash flows to fund their R&D like Vertex and Lantheus do. The hosts have more confidence in companies financing research out of free cash flow. 00:12:22 Comparing Biotech and Energy Investing There are surprising similarities between biotech and energy investing. A blockbuster drug platform is akin to having a large oil or gas reserve that can be tapped for years. But getting there requires early success and skillful capital allocation, just like in energy. Vertex has done an amazing job out-innovating itself in treating cystic fibrosis, similar to an energy company replacing reserves. Their "drug platform" treating this disease is a huge reserve they can tap for years to come. 00:18:16 Vertex's Advantages Over Moderna and BioNTech While Moderna and BioNTech had tremendous COVID-related cash flows, that has largely dried up, whereas Vertex is able to fund R&D from ongoing free cash flow. Vertex spends $3.1B on R&D compared to Moderna's $4B, but Moderna will likely burn through cash quickly unless they have a new hit drug soon. BioNTech is a bit more cash-efficient with partnerships on pipeline products. 00:27:28 Sponsor Break: Oakcliff Sailing 00:28:31 Challenges of In Vivo vs Ex Vivo Gene Editing The hosts discuss the challenges and timelines of in vivo gene editing (directly in the body) vs ex vivo (outside the body). With in vivo, you can't test for off-target edits that could potentially cause cancers or other side effects. So the clinical trials will need to be very long to observe cancer rates over time. Most companies working on this are still in early stage trials. So in vivo gene editing treatments have a low probability of reaching the market in the next 3-5 years due to the complicated trial design and potential for concerning side effects. Ex vivo approaches are further along.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and

[00:00:00] IntroMike set the stage for an episode packed with energy, tech, biotech analysis and a special guest from the OakCliff Sailing Center.[00:01:14] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandHunt discussed Saudi Arabia's potential to unleash 3 million barrels per day of held-back oil production to flex on cheating OPEC nations. A simple move with profound market implications.[00:01:58] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply Warm weather had depressed natural gas prices lately. But the team saw prices firming if production is curtailed. [00:03:06] Exhibit A: US Gov't Revenues and ExpensesProgress inched forward on the U.S. budget process. The government machine lurched onward. [00:03:38] Page 1: AAPL/AMZN/GOOG/MSFT/TSLADissecting tech titan free cash flows revealed insights: Amazon's logistics build-out, Google's bloated hiring, Tesla's software potential. Following the money trail leads to understanding.[00:13:23] Oakcliff Sailing Update Dawn Riley inspired with tales of Oakcliff alumni sailing victories worldwide. The lure of the open water summons all.[00:14:57] Investing in Healthcare & BiotechMike and Jason outlined their approach to biotech at Top Mark Capital: growing free cash flows, moats, innovating in stagnant sectors, funding R&D internally. A straightforward but potent strategy for asymmetric returns.[00:16:43] Page 15: PFE/MRNA/LNTH/BNTX/VRTXVertex exemplified the ideal - spending half its cash flow on R&D for a new non-opioid pain drug, its cystic fibrosis franchise providing a strong moat.[00:21:02] Page 19: UNH/CVS/REGN/BIIB/LLY Larger biotechs like Lilly were assessed, but smaller innovators offered more potential upside per the team's criteria. Risk and opportunity in equilibrium.[00:23:10] What is RNA?Jason eloquently explained RNA technology's role in COVID vaccines and vast future cancer treatment potential. Knowledge is indispensable.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

[00:00:00] Intro[00:01:44] World Oil Supply and Demand:Hunt provides an update on the oil market, cautioning about the potential impact of increased production from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.[00:02:12] U.S. Gas Demand and Supply:Discussion on the natural gas oversupply and the potential for wells in the Marcellus to be shut in due to low gas prices.[00:03:52] U.S. Government Revenues and Expenses:The hosts explore the financial challenges facing the U.S. government, including the risk of a shutdown and the need for a budget resolution.[00:04:24] AI Market Update:A deep dive into the market for general AI and large language models, with a focus on the role of hyperscalers and the sustainability of the AI market's growth.[00:06:14] Klarna Replaces 700 Staff with AI & Saves $40 Million/Year:Jason shares the news of Klarna's use of OpenAI's virtual assistants to replace customer service representatives, saving the company $40 million annually.[00:09:18] Meta's GPU Monetization Strategy:The hosts examine how Meta (Facebook) is using AI algorithms for ad tracking to maintain ad revenue in the face of Apple's privacy changes.[00:12:41] The Gemini Blunder:A critical look at Google's rebranding of its AI model to Gemini, the model's biases, and the impact on user trust and Google's reputation.[00:21:08] AI in Healthcare: Lilly Doubles IT Budget on Internal AI Demand:Discussion on the pharmaceutical industry's investment in AI, with Lilly doubling its IT budget to meet the demand for AI tools.[00:27:31] The Importance of AI for Talent Retention:The hosts conclude with the idea that businesses may need to invest in AI and provide access to dedicated servers with GPUs to attract and retain top talent.[00:33:21] Disclaimer:The episode wraps up with a disclaimer, reminding listeners that the podcast is for informational purposes only and not to be taken as investment advice.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Join Hunt Lawrence, Jason Wallace, and Mike Nicoletti as they delve into the latest trends in the energy sector, government fiscal policies, and a special focus on Nvidia's remarkable earnings. This episode also explores the competitive dynamics within the AI chip industry, highlighted by the emergence of startups like Groq.Show Notes & Timestamps:[00:00:00] Intro/Outro: Introduction to Telltales, an investing podcast that covers geopolitics, macroeconomics, energy, and technology. Reminder of the informational purpose of the podcast.[00:00:38] World Oil Supply/Demand: Discussion on the current state of oil demand, particularly in China, and the role of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi in managing oil supply.[00:01:02] US Gas Demand/Supply: Examination of the natural gas market, highlighting the supply problem and its impact on prices.[00:02:18] US Government Revenues and Expenses: Insights into the political landscape affecting government spending and the implications for the energy sector.[00:03:24] Energy Earnings Roundup: Analysis of earnings from various energy companies, including gas and oil producers.[00:05:32] Oil Companies - EOG/MGY/PR/FANG: Overview of the performance and strategic moves of key oil companies.[00:09:11] Midstream Companies - KMI/EPD/ET/WES: Evaluation of midstream companies, their valuation, and debt challenges.[00:09:57] Major Oil and Gas Players - XOM/CVX/COP/OXY/LNG: Discussion on the prospects and performance of major oil and gas companies.[00:11:47] Nvidia Earnings: Deep dive into Nvidia's earnings, its valuation surpassing Amazon and Alphabet, and the sales growth driving its market capitalization.[00:14:19] Competitive Landscape of AI Chips: Exploration of the AI chip market, focusing on startups like Groq challenging Nvidia's dominance.[00:29:54] Closing Remarks: Recap of the episode's key points and a reminder of the informational purpose of the podcast.#InvestingPodcast #EnergyMarkets #OilSupplyDemand #NaturalGas #GovernmentSpending #EnergyEarnings #MidstreamCompanies #OilGasIndustry #NvidiaEarnings #TechInvestments #MarketTrends2024 #ValueInvesting #StockMarketInsights #OilAndGasMarket #TechGiantsValuation #AIInnovation #FinancialAnalysis #InvestmentStrategies #EconomicOutlook #CorporateEarningsThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In the latest episode of Telltales, the investing podcast hosted by Hunt Lawrence, Jason Wallace, and Mike Nicoletti, a rich array of topics were explored with their usual blend of insight and wit. Here's a taste of what went down:The trio kicked off with a deep dive into the oil markets, highlighting the delicate balance between supply and demand. They pointed out the Saudi's production cuts and pondered over the potential ripple effects of increased production from other major players like Russia and the U.S.Switching gears, the conversation moved to the U.S. natural gas market. They discussed the impact of recent cold snaps on prices and production levels, and debated the Biden administration's stance on the future of LNG facilities, hinting at the broader implications for the energy sector.The discussion took a turn towards government fiscal policies, scrutinizing the U.S. government's revenue and expenses. The hosts analyzed the deficit trends and the challenging road ahead in managing national debt, emphasizing the need for a cautious approach in these uncertain times.In a vibrant segment, the hosts dissected the media and tech giants - Netflix, Disney, Amazon, and Meta. They chewed over each company's strategic moves, market positions, and the evolving landscape of content consumption and production. The potential for partnerships and the future of streaming services led to intriguing predictions and insights.Telecom was next on the docket, with a focus on the major U.S. carriers. The conversation revolved around the capex strategies, the 5G rollout, and the ambitious leaps towards space-based networks, highlighting the innovative, yet competitive nature of the industry.The semiconductor sector wasn't left out. The hosts discussed recent earnings updates from industry behemoths, touching on the significance of AI in driving future sales and the strategic implications of the global chip shortage.In an unexpected twist, the episode also covered groundbreaking developments in biotech, spotlighting a gene therapy that's making waves in treating genetic hearing loss in children - a testament to the breathtaking pace of innovation in the field.Wrapping up, the episode couldn't avoid the gravitational pull of politics. The hosts deliberated over the potential investment implications of a Trump vs. Biden rematch, offering a nuanced view on how political landscapes can influence market dynamics.From oil barrels to gene editing, from silicon chips to the corridors of power, Telltales once again delivered a whirlwind tour of the investing landscape, all while keeping it light, informative, and utterly engaging. Tune in, stay sharp, and as always, make your investment moves with wisdom and wit!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Welcome to Episode 2403 of the Telltales Podcast, your essential guide to the world of energy, technology, and market trends. In this episode, we dive deep into the dynamics of the energy sector, compare it with tech industry giants, and explore the intriguing potential of AI in various sectors. Here's a breakdown of what we cover: 00:00:00 Introduction 00:00:25 Disclaimer and Information Notice 00:00:42 Exhibit C: World Oil Supply / Demand 00:02:18 Exhibit B: US Gas Demand / Supply 00:02:49 Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses 00:04:06 Page 9: Energy Majors (XOM/CVX/COP/OXY/LNG) 00:05:35 Page 10: Midstream (KMI / EPD / ET / WES) 00:06:19 Page 11: Oil Companies (EOG / MGY / PR / FANG) 00:07:27 Page 12: Gas Companies (AR / EQT / CHK / AM) 00:08:47 Page 11: Oil Companies (EOG / MGY / PR / FANG) - Part 2 00:09:03 Page 10: Midstream (KMI / EPD / ET / WES) - Part 2 00:09:28 Page 9: Energy Majors (XOM/CVX/COP/OXY/LNG) - Part 2 00:09:50 Energy Valuations (Pg 9-12) vs Tech (Pg 1-4) - A comparative analysis highlighting the valuation disparities between energy companies and tech giants, offering insights into market perceptions and investment trends. 00:11:26 Sponsor Section - Top Mark Capital 00:11:51 Page 3: Can NVIDIA Sustain Its Current Run Rate Free Cash Flow? - An in-depth discussion on NVIDIA's financials, the sustainability of its cash flow, market risks, and growth projections. 00:16:36 Page 2: How Many Customers Does Microsoft Need to Sell Copilot To? - Analysis of Microsoft's Copilot product, its market impact, customer acquisition targets, and its overall contribution to Microsoft's valuation. 00:17:36 Will AI Copilots Be Good Enough? And What We Learned From CES! - A conversation on the potential and current limitations of AI copilots, enriched with insights and key takeaways from the recent CES event. 00:23:36 Page 1: Will Apple Need a ChatGPT or Rabbit Like Capability? - Exploration of the need for advanced AI capabilities in Apple's product line, the competitive landscape, and the implications for the tech giant. 00:25:13 The Implications of Generative AI on Healthcare & Drug Discovery - A thought-provoking segment discussing how generative AI is reshaping healthcare and drug discovery, highlighting potential breakthroughs and challenges. 00:27:52 Wrap-up and Next Episode Preview: Healthcare Focus 00:28:07 Legal Disclaimer and Non-liability StatementThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode of Telltales, the hosts (Jason Wallace, Hunt Lawrence and Mike Nicoletti) go through a 20-page memo and pick one stock from each page that they think will have the highest free cash flow growth in 2024. Check out telltales.us for more Sections and Stocks Discussed: 0:00:31 Exhibit C - Oil and gas pricing updates 0:01:54 Exhibit B - Natural gas supply and demand 0:02:03 Exhibit A - Government funding negotiations 0:02:19 Cashflow Pick'em - Choosing cash flow winners 0:03:07 Page 20 - Ridesharing and e-commerce picks 0:04:20 Page 19 - Healthcare and pharma faceoff 0:05:17 Page 18 - Commodity and chemical companies 0:06:54 Page 17 - Shipping and retailers compete 0:07:40 Page 16 - Restaurant industry showdown 0:08:57 Page 15 - Pharma and imaging matchup 0:10:17 Page 14 - Industrials and manufacturing picks 0:10:47 Page 13 - Battle of the investment banks 0:11:32 Page 12 - Natural gas stocks debate 0:12:05 Page 11 - Oil production all-stars 0:12:51 Page 10 - Midstream pipeline operators 0:13:31 Page 9 - Integrated oil supermajors 0:15:06 Page 8 - Retail industry heavyweights 0:16:18 Page 7 - Payments processors face-off 0:17:40 Pages 5 & 6 - Telecom and cable giants 0:19:19 Page 4 - Video streaming platforms 0:20:30 Page 3 - Semiconductor tech companies 0:22:00 Page 2 - Enterprise software standouts 0:23:33 Page 1 - Big tech trilogyThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

00:00:00 Introduction:Welcome to Telltales, an investing podcast hosted by Hunt Lawrence, Jason Wallace, and Mike Nicoletti. Each week we discuss topics ranging from geopolitics and macroeconomics to energy and technology. Stay tuned as we explore the intricacies of global markets and investments.00:00:34 World Oil Supply and Demand:Dive into the dynamics of the world oil supply and demand, exploring geopolitical impacts, trade disruptions, and market oversupply.00:01:30 US Gas Demand and Supply:Discussing the shifts in US gas demand and supply, including analysis on price trends, production insights, and future predictions.00:03:41 Government Spending Overview:An examination of U.S. government revenues and expenses, understanding the implications of fiscal policies and spending trends.00:04:25 Amazon Enters the Car Business:Exploring Amazon's venture into the automotive industry and its potential impacts on traditional dealers, manufacturers, and the broader market.00:10:47 The Future of Datacenter Spending - On Prem vs Off Prem:Discussing evolving trends in datacenter spending, focusing on the debate between on-premises and off-premises solutions.00:16:50 Healthcare Innovations and Investments:Spotlighting major players in the healthcare sector like BioNTech, Moderna, Pfizer, and others, analyzing financials and future outlooks.00:19:46 BioNTech vs Moderna:Comparing and contrasting the strategies and outlooks of BioNTech and Moderna in the rapidly evolving healthcare landscape.00:22:23 Vertex Update:Providing updates on Vertex Pharmaceuticals, discussing their financial health, research innovations, and market position.00:25:46 Bristol Myers Squibb Acquires Ryzen Biopharma:Discussing the recent M&A activity with Bristol Myers Squibb's acquisition of Ryzen Biopharma and its implications for the industry.00:28:09 Conclusion:Wrapping up the episode with final thoughts and a reminder for listeners to tune in again next week for more insights.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Title: E2351 - Geopolitics, Macroeconomics, Energy, and Tech Discussed in Latest EpisodeSummary: In this week's Telltales podcast, Hunt, Mike, and Jason cover a range of topics including world oil supply/demand, US gas supply/demand, US government revenues and expenses, AI models running on phones vs the cloud, implications of China-Taiwan relations, streaming platforms bidding on live sports rights, healthcare companies like Lantheus and Vertex Pharmaceuticals, and more.Content:0:00 - Intro 0:34 - World oil supply/demand dynamics - $TSM, $ASML 1:34 - Concerns about growing US natural gas supply glut 3:01 - Positive shift in US govt spending trajectory - $AAPL 4:18 - Would you rather own Apple or US govt debt? - $AAPL 6:20 - Will AI models dominate more on edge devices or the cloud? - $GOOG, $MSFT 11:14 - Potential impact of China push for Taiwan reunification - $NVDA, $AMD, $INTC, $TSM, $ASML 15:09 - Streaming platforms bidding for live sports rights - $NFLX, $DIS, $AMZN, $GOOG 18:31 - Preview of topics for next week - $T, $VZ, $TMUS, $MA, $PYPL 19:05 - Dropping Pfizer, adding Eli Lilly to healthcare watchlist - $PFE, $LLY 19:49 - Lantheus phase 3 cancer drug trial data - $LNTH 23:06 - Vertex Pharma's non-opioid pain drug - $VRTX 26:10 - DisclaimerThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

The "Telltales" podcast, co-hosted by Mike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace, is a weekly discussion focusing on key financial insights. Originating from a decade-long in-person meeting initiated by Lawrence, it transitioned to a remote format during the pandemic. The podcast records their weekly calls discussing the "Cashflow Memo," a document summarizing financials of around 70 companies across various sectors. The podcast aims to guide listeners through significant financial trends and data, aiding in informed investment decisions. It's available on platforms like Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube. For more details, and to download your copy of the memo, visit telltales.us 0:00:00 - Intro 0:00:24 - Exhibit B: Analysis of Gas Markets: Discussing current trends and predictions in gas markets. 0:01:34 - Exhibit C: Oil Supply and Demand (OIL): Insights into oil market dynamics and future outlook. 0:04:02 - Exhibit B: Natural Gas Market Insights (NG): Deep dive into natural gas market conditions. 0:05:13 - Exhibit A: Government Cash Flow: Examining government financials and implications. 0:07:06 - Who Will Grow Cashflow?: Analyzing the cash flow growth of major tech companies. 0:10:56 - Page 1: AI and Cloud Services in Tech Sector: The role of AI and cloud services in the tech industry. 0:13:12 - Page 8: Retail Sector Analysis: Comparative analysis of major retail players. 0:20:55 - Page 15: Healthcare Sector Insights: Exploring innovations and financials in healthcare.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

0:00:00 - Introduction: Overview of the podcast's key economic and financial topics. 0:01:51 - Oil Market Dynamics: Analysis of the complexities in the oil supply and demand. 0:03:56 - U.S. Gas Supply and Demand: Discussion on the U.S. gas industry's current trends and future outlook. 0:06:00 - U.S. Government Financial Health: Insights into the U.S. government's fiscal situation, focusing on revenues and expenses. 0:09:34 - Sponsor Segment: Acknowledgement of our sponsors and their support. 0:10:52 - Company Cash Flow Analysis: Detailed examination of free cash flow changes in various companies. 0:30:00 - Preview of Next Week: Introduction to upcoming topics focusing on cash flow momentum in different sectors. 0:30:57 - Closing Remarks: Summary and key takeaways, along with a look ahead to the next episode.Covered Companies: AT&T: #TVerizon: #VZT-Mobile: #TMUSNetflix: #NFLXWalt Disney: #DISAmazon: #AMZNMeta Platforms (formerly Facebook): #METAApple: #AAPLAlphabet (Google): #GOOGLIntel: #INTCTesla: #TSLAThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Episode Title: "Telltales E2348: The Next Cashflow King'" Release Date: November 29, 2023 Duration: 33:10 Episode Summary: Dive into a riveting discussion in this episode of "Telltales," where we unravel the dynamic world of technology and media giants. We begin with an in-depth analysis of US gas demand and supply, followed by a critical examination of the US government's financial health. The episode heats up as we explore potential challengers to Apple's cash flow crown and speculate on Tesla's journey to a significant free cash flow milestone. Delve into the strategic positioning of Meta in the AI space, and join us as we compare the content strategies of major media platforms like Netflix, YouTube, and others. We wrap up with the latest insights on telecom leaders Verizon, ATT, and T-Mobile. This episode is packed with insightful analyses and predictions, making it a must-listen for enthusiasts and professionals in the tech and media landscape. Key Highlights: [00:03:52] US Gas Demand / Supply: Analyzing trends and projections. [00:04:32] US Gov't Finances: Exploring government revenues and expenses. [00:04:50] AAPL Cashflow Contenders: Who could surpass Apple? [00:07:37] Surpassing AAPL's Cash Flow: Potential business models and market opportunities. [00:15:01] Tesla's FCF Milestone: Predicting Tesla's financial future. [00:21:04] Media Strategies Comparison: Netflix, Meta, YouTube, and more. [00:26:30] META's AI Positioning: Meta's strategy in AI. [00:28:05] Telecom Update: Insights on Verizon, ATT, & T-Mobile. [00:31:07] Closing & Disclaimer: Important reminders. This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Title: OpenAI Drama & Impact on Software & Semiconductor Companies Hosted by: Hunt Lawrence, Jason Wallace, Mike Nicoletti Chapters: [00:00:00] Introduction to Telltales Podcast [00:00:46] Discussion on World Oil Supply/Demand and OPEC Meeting Implications [00:01:58] Analysis of US Gas Demand/Supply Trends [00:03:50] Examination of US Government Revenues and Expenses [00:05:55] Impact of OpenAI Drama on Semiconductor and Software Companies [00:25:00] Future of GPUs in Consumer Electronics [00:29:30] White House AI Executive Order and its Implications [00:30:29] Closing Remarks and Preview of Next Week's Topics Key Highlights: World Oil Dynamics: Insights into the latest OPEC meeting and its implications on global oil supply and demand. US Gas Trends: An in-depth look at the US gas market, examining production, demand, and future projections. Government Spending: Analysis of US government spending and the financial implications for the economy. OpenAI's Structural Changes: Discussion on the recent turmoil at OpenAI, its impact on the tech industry, and potential benefits for other tech giants. Future of Consumer Electronics: Exploring how GPUs and AI accelerators are shaping the future of laptops and smartphones. Policy Impacts: How the White House's AI executive order might influence open-source AI models and tech companies. Sponsorship: Episode sponsored by Top Market Capital. This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Description: Join Hunt Lawrence, Jason Wallace, and Mike Nicoletti in this insightful episode of the Telltales podcast, where we delve deep into the world of investing, economics, and technology. Get expert opinions on current market trends, investment strategies, and a detailed analysis of various sectors.Chapters: 00:00 Intro and Disclaimer 00:57 Exhibit C: Analysis of World Oil Supply and Demand 02:38 Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand and Supply 04:30 Exhibit A: U.S. Government Revenues and Expenses 06:35 Discussion on Uber, DoorDash, Airbnb, and Five Below 13:35 Analysis of Comcast and Charter in the Cable Industry 18:41 Insights on JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley 21:54 Microsoft, AI, and Future of Tech Investments 28:42 Outro & DisclaimerHighlighted Topics:World Oil Supply and Demand DynamicsU.S. Gas Market TrendsFiscal Analysis of U.S. GovernmentIn-depth Look at Companies like Uber, DoorDash, Airbnb, and Five BelowCable Industry Analysis Focusing on Comcast and CharterFinancial Institutions: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan StanleyThe Role of AI in Future Investments, with a Focus on MicrosoftThe Leadership and Strategy of Companies like NVIDIA and IntelLinks and Resources:Telltales Newsletter - www.telltales.usThe Verge Article on Microsoft AI Chips - https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/15/23960345/microsoft-cpu-gpu-ai-chips-azure-maia-cobalt-specifications-cloud-infrastructureThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Episode 23.45 of the Telltales Podcast delves into the intricate world of market investments, offering listeners a comprehensive analysis across several dynamic sectors. Join us as we dissect the latest trends in oil and gas markets, exploring the geopolitical and economic factors at play. We take a deep dive into natural gas demands, the US fiscal landscape, and the strategic maneuvers of key players in the energy sector. The discussion takes a pivot to the healthcare industry, where we evaluate the financial health and strategic decisions of giants such as UnitedHealth, CVS, Regeneron, and Biogen. In the ever-evolving tech realm, we analyze Apple's latest earnings, debate the competitive landscape of GPUs with NVIDIA and AMD at the helm, and speculate on the implications of export controls on global distribution, particularly in AI and data center spending. This episode is a must-listen for investors and enthusiasts keen on staying ahead in the investment game, with insights and commentary from our expert hosts. Whether you're looking to understand the current market scenarios or seeking foresight into the future of these pivotal industries, episode 23.45 is your guide through the complex currents of today's investment opportunities.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this week’s episode...[00:01:17] Energy Sector: Kickstarting the episode with a discussion on the current trends and future prospects in the energy sector. What does the landscape look like, and what should investors be aware of?[00:06:01] Banking: Analyzing the financial health and performance of JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Goldman Sachs (GS). What do these banks have in store for investors?[00:06:54] Industrial and Construction: Delving into Caterpillar (CAT), Deere & Company (DE), and other key players. How are these companies navigating the current economic climate?[00:08:51] Pharmaceutical Innovators: A look at Pfizer (PFE), Moderna (MRNA), and others leading the charge in medical innovation. What should investors know about their recent developments and future potential?[00:11:58] Consumer Favorites: Discussing the performance and strategies of McDonald's (MCD), Starbucks (SBUX), Chipotle (CMG), and more. How are these companies maintaining their appeal to consumers?[00:13:44] Logistics and Apparel: Analyzing FedEx (FDX), UPS, Nike (NKE), Costco (COST), and their roles in their respective industries. What trends are shaping their futures?[00:15:44] Materials and Energy: Exploring Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Albemarle Corporation (ALB), and others driving innovation in materials and energy. What investment opportunities might they present?[00:18:37] Tech Titans: Diving into Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (Google) (GOOG), Tesla (TSLA), and their impact on the tech industry. How are these giants shaping the future?[00:25:14] Semiconductor Leaders: A closer look at NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD, Intel (INTC), and other key players in the semiconductor industry. What should investors expect from this rapidly evolving sector?This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Episode 23.34 Chapters[00:01:19] Oil, Gas, & Macro: Exhibits A, B & C[00:03:06] Page 5: $CHTR / CMCSA 0.00%↑ [00:06:12] Page 6: $T / $VZ / TMUS 0.00%↑ [00:09:32] Page 7: $MA / $V / PYPL 0.00%↑ [00:11:19] Page 8: $WMT / $TGT / $LOW / $HD / KMX 0.00%↑ [00:12:16] Page 9: $XOM / $CVX / $COP / $OXY / LNG 0.00%↑ [00:14:27] Page 10: $KMI / $EPD / $ET / WES 0.00%↑ [00:15:14] Page 11: $EOG / $MGY / $PR / FANG 0.00%↑ [00:15:40] Page 12: $AR / $EQT / $CHK / AM 0.00%↑ [00:17:11] Sponsor Break[00:17:46] Page 4: $META, TikTok & Cigarettes[00:19:36] Page 1&4: AI Cloud Strategy: $AMZN vs MSFT 0.00%↑ [00:21:12] Page 4: Would you rather: $NFLX or $DIS?[00:22:25] Page 3: $NVDA / $AMD / $INTC / $TSMC / ASML 0.00%↑ [00:23:39] Page 2: $MSFT earningsThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this week’s episode...Telltales Podcast: Episode 23.42 Show NotesEXHIBIT C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND:Delve into the intricacies of world oil supply and demand, especially in the context of recent geopolitical events in Gaza and Iran's production capabilities.Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY:A comprehensive look at US natural gas demand and supply, discussing factors influencing prices and the role of geopolitical events.EXHIBIT A: US. GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSES:Explore the state of US government revenues and expenses, focusing on the current political landscape, the deficit situation, and the administration's approach to these challenges.PAGE 1: AAPL 0.00%↑ / GOOGL 0.00%↑ / TSLA 0.00%↑ :Dive deep into the performance and trends surrounding tech giants like Apple, Google, and Tesla, discussing stock performance, market dynamics, and future outlooks.PAGE 2: MSFT 0.00%↑ / $CRM / $SNOW / $ORCL:An in-depth analysis of major tech stocks, including Microsoft, Salesforce, Snowflake, and Oracle, with a focus on their respective market positions, challenges, and opportunities.How much of a market is the US market for advanced GPU chips?:Discuss the market for advanced GPU chips in the US, considering their potential use by the Chinese military and implications for US defense contracting.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOW NOTES: Gaza, Hamas, and Global Oil Prices: Telltales Episode 23.41[00:00:57] IntroductionBrief overview of Exhibit B & C.Effects of the Hamas-Israel War on global energy prices.[00:01:26] U.S. Oil Inventory InsightsYear-over-year inventory analysis.How crude oil prices shifted over the past months.[00:02:54] Middle East Power DynamicsA potential three-way agreement between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the US.Iran's role in the negotiations and their relationship with Saudi Arabia.How recent events in Israel affected the geopolitical landscape.[00:03:28] Iranian Economy and SanctionsRepublican criticisms.Impact of relaxed sanctions on Iran's oil production.Economic comparisons between Trump and Biden administrations.[00:04:57] The Abraham Accords and Global Oil GameUS's strategy to reduce oil prices.Predictions on Israel's actions against Hamas.Speculations on future negotiations.[00:06:54] Political Turnover in the U.S. GOP HouseThe scenario post-McCarthy.Speculations and political climate surrounding Scalise's nomination.Financial challenges faced by the U.S. and the Fed's plans.[00:09:06] Investing in a 2.5% Real Interest Rate WorldEvaluating the real rate of interest required.Impact of inflation rates.History of real interest rates and potential futures.[00:10:39] Tech Stock AnalysisDeep dive into companies: Apple, Alphabet, Tesla, and Microsoft.Free cash flow evaluations.Growth rates and future valuation predictions.[00:14:52] NVIDIA’s Bright FuturePredictions about NVIDIA's growth.The potential for its GPUS in the world of large language models.[00:15:57] The FTC vs. Google: A Glimpse Inside the TrialFinancial discussions around payments to Apple.The potential implications for Apple's services.[00:17:34] Exploring the Cost of Language Models vs. Traditional SearchTechnical comparison between Google's search and large language models.Potential future developments in the search industry.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

[00:40] Exhibit A-C: Oil, Gas, & MacroHunt discusses the unusual behavior of oil in the market, emphasizing its large surplus capacity. The scenario with natural gas is contrasted, noting its struggle due to the fact that supply continues to outpac demand. The conversation touches the broader fiscal landscape, including the challenges the U.S. government faces regarding deficit and security financing.[03:53] Who can double cashflow in next 3-5 years?The chapter delves into potential companies that could see significant progress in their free cash flow over the next 5 years. Tesla and NVIDIA are highlighted, while Celsius and Vertex are also discussed as having the possibility of significantly growing free cashflow. The focus is on understanding the growth prospects of these companies and the factors that might influence their financial trajectories.[23:45] The Basis TradeThis chapter delves into macroeconomic factors, highlighting a concerning article from the Financial Times about the repo market's use by hedge funds in interest rate futures. For more on this, check out this FT article.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this week’s episode...[00:35] Energy Markets Overview: Exhibit C & B, Pages 11-12. AI Summary: The chapter opens with a discussion on energy inventories, particularly in the U.S., and the current state of oil production from countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The hosts express skepticism over the current oil rally and suggest that it may be overdone.[04:13] Energy: Where to find FCF growth? Pages 9-11. AI Summary: The hosts explore cash flow characteristics of various energy companies and emphasize the importance of free cash flow, especially in a high-interest rate environment. The chapter aims to identify companies that are growing their free cash flow by at least 10% per year.[07:44] Non-Energy: Where to find FCF growth? Pages 14, 3, & 1. AI Summary: The chapter begins by discussing various industrial companies like Caterpillar, Deere, and Generac, each dominant in their respective markets. The conversation also touches upon Fastenal, a hardware supply company, highlighting its impressive long-term investment returns. The hosts then explore the performance of major tech companies, such as Nvidia, in terms of their free cash flow. Nvidia's exceptional performance is contrasted with other companies like Advanced Micro Devices and Intel, focusing on their different valuations and cash flow statuses. The discussion also ventures into the implications of high valuations for companies with significant free cash flow growth, specifically citing Nvidia as an example. Lastly, the conversation delves into broader investment themes, such as the role of artificial intelligence in shaping the future of industries.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

IN THIS EPISODE...[01:30] EXHIBIT C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND [02:30] EXHIBIT B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY[03:00] EXHIBIT A: US. GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSES [03:56] PAGE 9: XOM/CVX/COP/OXY/LNG[05:43] Page 10: KMI / EPD / ET / WES[06:57] PAGE 11: EOG / MGY / PR / FANG[08:31] PAGE 12: AR / EQT / CHK / AM[09:59] PAGE 1: AAPL / GOOG / TSLA[19:43] PAGE 15: PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTXThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this week’s episode...[00:01:26] EXHIBIT A: US. GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSES - Hunt delves into the U.S. government's legislative process for revenues and expenses, emphasizing the challenges and implications of budget deficits. The focus is on the role of committees and the Congressional Budget Office's numbers for the year.[00:04:55] EXHIBIT B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY - Hunt discusses the balance between U.S. gas demand and supply, pointing out that increased supply has managed to counteract the rising demand. It also hints at the average gas prices and the future outlook for 2024 and 2025.[00:07:01] EXHIBIT C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND - Hunt talks about global oil demand and supply, with a focus on political issues between leading producers like Saudi Arabia and the United States.[00:08:42] PAGE 1: AAPL / GOOG / TSLA - Jason comments on Google's search result presentation and the unclear nature of paid positions in the results.[00:09:52] PAGE 2: MSFT / CRM / SNOW / ORCL - Mike and Jason discuss tech companies such as Microsoft, Salesforce, Snowflake, and Oracle, with a focus on free cash flow and back-office functions. They touch upon how companies are adapting to the times.[00:20:59] PAGE 3: NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML - The hosts discuss the significance of ASML's latest lithography machines and their impact on semiconductor manufacturing.[00:27:43] PAGE 15: PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTX - The final section is a brief discussion on biotech companies like Pfizer, Moderna, and others. It also touches upon potential future treatments being developed by Vertex that would replace opioid painkillers.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOW NOTES[00:01:14] EXHIBIT C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND - This section discusses the dynamics of global oil supply and demand. It delves into various factors affecting the oil market, including geopolitical influences and economic trends.[00:02:18] EXHIBIT B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY - This part focuses on the gas market in the United States, examining the supply and demand aspects. Insights into the domestic production, imports, and consumer trends are provided.[00:03:40] PAGES 1-3: $NVDA EARNINGS, NEW $GOOG AI PRODUCT - The segment talks about Nvidia's recent earnings report and Google's new AI product. It reviews the financial performance of Nvidia and discusses the potential impact of Google's latest AI offering.[00:16:51] CONSPIRACY CORNER: IS SAM ALTMAN A JAMES BOND VILLAN?? - This is a lighter, speculative section that humorously discusses whether Sam Altman, a well-known tech entrepreneur, could be a villain in a James Bond movie. Theories and opinions are shared.[00:19:06] PAGE 4: $AMZN COMPETITIVE POSITIONING IN AI - This segment explores Amazon's positioning in the Artificial Intelligence market. It looks into Amazon's strategies, product offerings, and how it stands against competitors in the AI space.[00:22:41] PAGES 5 - 13: MARKET VALUATION REVIEW - This comprehensive section offers a review of market valuations. Various metrics and indicators are discussed to give an in-depth understanding of the current market scenario.[00:27:19] HOW MUCH TO PAY FOR GROWTH? - The final section of the podcast tackles the topic of growth valuation. It discusses how to assess the value of growth in companies and what metrics can be useful for this purpose.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com