Telltales

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the potential impacts of the Trump administration on energy markets, media consumption, and the healthcare industry. They analyze key exhibits, dive into company-specific news, and share insights on the shifting landscape of these sectors.[00:00:33] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Hunt expects Iran's oil production to decrease under the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" policy. He also discusses the challenges in reaching a deal between Ukraine and Russia, which could impact Russia's oil exports. The tightening of the oil market could lead to a wider price range, with the potential for oil to trade up to $80 or down to $50.[00:04:55] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply Hunt highlights the increasing demand for natural gas in power generation, outpacing the growth in LNG exports. However, he cautions that the surplus in natural gas supply could keep prices low, especially if production from the Permian Basin continues to grow. He advises investors to be cautious when considering upstream gas companies.[00:07:36] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses Hunt discusses the challenges the Trump administration faces in reaching a budget deal by March 14th and managing the debt ceiling. He suggests that investors consider holding cash reserves through this period due to the potential for capital market disruptions.[00:10:02] Where do you get your News? The Changing Digital Landscape. The team explores the shifting landscape of news consumption, with digital platforms like Twitter and X becoming increasingly important sources of information. They discuss the challenges traditional media faces in maintaining credibility and the role of advertising in shaping content. The conversation also touches on the importance of fact-checking and consuming content from diverse perspectives to avoid echo chambers.[00:15:32] Streaming Wars: Netflix, Disney, and the Future of Entertainment (Page 4) The team analyzes the strategies of Netflix and Disney in the streaming market, discussing the potential for Disney to expand its offerings to include sports and news. They also examine Netflix's success in generating free cash flow and its shift towards emphasizing revenue growth and profitability. The conversation explores the future of content delivery and the importance of matching content with the most effective delivery mechanisms.[00:22:42] Healthcare News: Vertex, Pfizer, and Lantheus (Page 15) Jason provides an update on Vertex Pharmaceuticals, highlighting its strong sales growth and the potential for new approvals to drive further expansion. The team also discusses the leaked data from a Pfizer prostate cancer treatment study and its implications for Lantheus, a company that provides imaging diagnostics for monitoring disease progression and treatment effectiveness.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, offering valuable insights into the complex dynamics shaping the energy, media, and healthcare industries. As investors navigate these shifting tides, staying informed and adaptable will be key to making sound investment decisions.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, Hunt and Jason discuss the implications of a potential second Trump term on the energy sector, Elon Musk's efforts to reduce federal spending, and the recent approval of Vertex's non-opioid pain drug. They also delve into the latest earnings reports from major tech companies and the advancements in autonomous driving technology.[00:00:46] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt anticipates that Trump's policies, including sanctions on Iran and Russia, could tighten the global oil market surplus in 2025. He expects Iranian exports to drop to zero and Russian production to decline by 1 million barrels per day.[00:02:18] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Hunt discusses the positive impact of weather on natural gas demand and the potential for increased production. He highlights the steady growth in power demand and the expansion of LNG exports, which could be further supported by a Trump administration.[00:03:38] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt and Jason analyze Elon Musk's efforts to reduce federal spending, targeting cuts in Medicaid and other discretionary programs. They believe Musk's team could potentially trim $500 billion from the 2025 budget, although challenges and opposition are expected.[00:07:11] Apple Earnings (Page 1) Jason notes that Apple experienced a 5% decline in iPhone sales during the holiday season, falling short of expectations for a super cycle. He attributes the slowdown to weak demand in China and suggests that Apple may need to integrate AI features to remain competitive.[00:09:20] Tesla Earnings (Page 1) Despite a disappointing quarter, Jason points out that Tesla's stock rallied on Elon Musk's optimism about the rollout of robo-taxis. He believes investors are focusing on the company's future potential rather than short-term setbacks.[00:10:08] How does FSD handle surprises like a kid running into the street after a ball? (Page 1) Jason provides a detailed explanation of how Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system learns from real-world driving data to handle unexpected situations, such as a child running into the street. He contrasts Tesla's approach with Waymo's more expensive and sensor-heavy system.[00:14:19] Insurance on cars with FSD (Page 1) Hunt and Jason discuss the potential for Tesla to offer insurance for FSD-equipped vehicles, either independently or through partnerships. They believe that Tesla aims to demonstrate the safety benefits of FSD and offer competitive premiums.[00:15:24] FSD Regulation (Page 1) The hosts explore the regulatory landscape for autonomous driving, noting that Waymo has obtained approval in several cities. They speculate that Elon Musk may leverage his connections to push for federal-level regulations to streamline the process.[00:16:19] Tesla FSD vs Waymo (Page 1) Jason compares the cost and technological differences between Tesla's FSD and Waymo's autonomous driving systems. He highlights Tesla's camera-based approach as more cost-effective than Waymo's expensive sensor suite, which could impact the profitability of robo-taxi services.[00:18:36] Will Tesla partner with Uber & Lift, or build out their own Rideshare Network for Robotaxi? (Page 20, 1) Hunt and Jason consider whether Tesla will collaborate with ride-hailing companies like Uber and Lyft or develop its own network for robo-taxis. They note that Uber is currently partnering with Waymo and may be open to working with other autonomous vehicle makers.[00:19:28] Vertex Pain Drug Approval & Process Power (Page 15) Jason discusses the recent FDA approval of Vertex's non-opioid pain drug, Jernavix, and its potential to address the opioid crisis. He highlights the significant economic impact of opioid addiction and suggests that subsidizing Jernavix could yield substantial societal benefits.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, from the potential impacts of a second Trump term on the energy sector to the latest advancements in autonomous driving technology and the approval of a groundbreaking non-opioid pain medication. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions on the trends shaping the future of energy, technology, and healthcare.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the potential impacts of the Trump administration's energy policies, the game-changing AI innovations from China's DeepSeek, and key updates from healthcare companies like Vertex, Lantheus, and BioNTech.[00:00:52] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt believes a deal with Iran under the Trump administration could tighten the oil market surplus. He expects OPEC countries to increase production, potentially leading to lower oil prices and a flattening of U.S. oil production growth.[00:04:44] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY The cold weather has reduced the natural gas storage surplus, but Hunt warns that production could increase, especially from the Permian Basin. He anticipates power demand for natural gas to continue growing but cautions that prices may not sustain at current levels.[00:07:53] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt discusses the challenges of raising the debt ceiling without spending cuts. He speculates that the Trump administration might withhold funds from programs like Medicaid to force a resolution, potentially causing disruptions in the capital markets.[00:10:03] DeepSeek and demand for Nvidia GPUs Jason and Mike analyze the implications of DeepSeek's AI advancements, which achieved impressive results with fewer resources. They discuss the potential impact on Nvidia's GPU demand, the role of reasoning models, and the incentives driving different companies' approaches to AI development.[00:29:30] OAKCLIFF UPDATE In this sponsored segment, Mike provides an update on the work being done at Oakcliff Sailing, including preparing match boats and repairing sails.[00:30:17] Lantheus Acquisition Jason discusses Lantheus' recent acquisition of a radiopharmacy in New Jersey, likely aimed at expanding their manufacturing capabilities and presence in Europe.Stay tuned for more insights on energy, AI, and healthcare as the Telltales team continues to navigate the ever-changing landscape of investments and technology.NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ BNTX 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ MRNA 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this special edition of the Telltales podcast, the team continues "Cashflow Pick'em" from week 2502, selecting companies on memo pages 14-20 that they believe will grow their cashflow the most in the coming year. They also discuss the impact of Trump's first days in office on various industries and the competitive landscape in artificial intelligence.[00:01:02] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects Russian and Iranian oil production to decrease in the coming months due to shipping restrictions and sanctions, leading to a tighter oil market and improved prices. However, a deal in Ukraine or lifted sanctions on Iran could cause prices to drop significantly.[00:03:51] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Natural gas has benefited from cold weather, but supply remains a concern. Hunt emphasizes the importance of dry gas production increasing once temperatures warm up.[00:04:18] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt anticipates a significant bill that will include expense reductions and the elimination of various tax credits to keep the Freedom Caucus on board. He believes this will be a major focus in the coming months.[00:05:53] Cashflow Pick'em 2025 Part 2 (Pages 14-20) The Telltales team and AI models make their picks for companies they believe will have the biggest increase in free cash flow over the next 12 months. They discuss their reasoning and analyze the potential of each company.[00:22:42] Trump Executive Order Impacts The team examines the impact of Trump's executive orders and press conference on the companies they follow. Hunt believes natural gas will benefit from increased LNG terminals and the need for reliable power in the near term. Mike and Jason discuss the competitive landscape in AI, focusing on OpenAI's position and the challenges they face.Stay tuned for more insights and analysis from the Telltales team as they navigate the ever-changing landscape of energy, healthcare, and technology.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00:50] World Oil Supply and DemandHunt shares insights on Russia’s oil production outlook amid sanctions.Potential impact of geopolitical developments on global oil prices.Why WTI prices might swing between the mid-50s to high-70s.[00:03:03] US Gas Demand/SupplyOverview of cold-weather impacts and freeze-offs on natural gas production.Discussion on LNG export growth.[00:04:07] Macro UpdateGovernment spending, potential trillion-dollar cuts, and debt-limit strategies.How a lower U.S. deficit could stabilize long-term interest rates.[00:07:09] JP Morgan Healthcare Conference UpdateNotable deals.Discussion on RFK Jr.’s potential policy impact on pharma regulations.Highlights for companies like Moderna, Eli Lilly, Vertex, Lantheus, and Harrow.[00:13:02] Turning GPUs into CashflowHunt and Mike on the hyperscalers’ (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Apple) AI investments.How these companies might generate returns from AI, cloud services, and large-scale GPU deployments.[00:19:29] Who Wins Among the Hyperscalers?Jason’s take: Microsoft’s enterprise edge vs. Meta’s massive user base.[00:22:01] Apple’s Software ChallengeWhy Siri lags behind other AI assistants.Could a full-fledged AI agent in iOS spark the next iPhone supercycle?[00:23:48] Salesforce vs. MicrosoftMarc Benioff’s vision of beating Microsoft in AI-driven CRM.Are enterprises ready to switch from Microsoft Dynamics to Salesforce?[00:26:09] Oakcliff Sailing UpdateSpecial message from Dawn Riley about collaboration and support for sailing athletes and organizations across the U.S.[00:31:27] Don’t Bet Against Musk: Tesla, xAI, and the Future of XJason’s overview of how Tesla’s massive video data set might lead to a game-changing self-driving solution.The broader societal impact if cars reach Level 5 autonomy—what happens to parking garages, urban planning, etc.?[00:34:51] Closing RemarksNVDA 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ JNJ 0.00%↑ GSK 0.00%↑ SNY 0.00%↑ MRNA 0.00%↑ LLY 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ HROW 0.00%↑ ORCL 0.00%↑ CRM 0.00%↑This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00:00]Introduction (Pages 1–13)Mike, Jason, and Hunt open the show by outlining their plan to assess which companies covered in the memo are poised for the highest percentage increase in free cashflow by 2025. They highlight that overall cashflow growth—not just revenue—drives long-term valuations, and they set up the structure for this year’s “Cashflow Pick’em” challenge.[00:00:48]Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Hunt reviews the current oil market landscape, pointing out that cold weather in the Northeast is boosting heating oil and natural gas businesses. He emphasizes strong global demand estimates but notes supply-side uncertainty, especially regarding Iranian sanctions and potential U.S. foreign-policy shifts. The segment ends with advice to hold existing oil positions but remain cautious about starting new ones.[00:02:59]Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply Hunt discusses the challenges in natural gas demand forecasts, especially with liquefied natural gas (LNG) project delays and power-generation trends. He notes that power demand for gas has grown steadily, even outpacing LNG growth in the short term. While the long-term LNG story remains attractive, near-term pricing could be volatile.[00:04:44]Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses Hunt walks through the latest update on U.S. government finances, highlighting potential budget negotiations tied to the debt ceiling. He predicts at least 500 billion in spending cuts emerging from reconciliation legislation, possibly touching defense and healthcare programs. The hosts discuss how this may create market volatility, suggesting investors keep some cash on the sidelines.[00:07:50]Cashflow Pick’em 2025 (Pages 1–13)Mike, Jason, and Hunt begin their page-by-page look at which companies could see the highest percentage growth in free cashflow. They compare their picks with AI models’ predictions from Grok and Perplexity. This segment covers tech (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, TSLA), software (CRM, NOW, SNOW, ORCL, AVGO), semiconductors (NVDA, AMD, INTC, TSM, ASML), entertainment (NFLX, DIS, META, SPOT), communications (CHTR, CMCSA, T, VZ, TMUS), payments (MA, V, PYPL), retail (WMT, TGT, LOW, HD, KMX), oil majors (XOM, CVX, COP, OXY, LNG), midstream (KMI, EPD, ET, WES, OKE), E&P (EOG, MGY, PR, FANG), natural gas (AR, EQT, CHK, AM), and banks (JPM, MS, GS, IBKR). They wrap with plans to continue the remaining pages in the next episode.[00:23:50]Special Break – Oakcliff Sailing A short break features Dawn Riley discussing Oakcliff Sailing’s upcoming tour. She explains how the organization aims to collaborate with sailing communities across the nation, sharing best practices for training, funding, and event hosting.[00:29:07]Healthcare Updates Jason updates listeners on Vertex’s recent clinical trial results, clarifying that setbacks in nerve pain do not necessarily affect its acute pain applications. They also touch on Lantheus, Harrow, and the ongoing debate over GLP-1 supply, compounding pharmacies, and patents. Finally, they consider whether new policy under RFK Jr. might promote broader transparency in healthcare data.[00:33:30]Can $200B be Trimmed from Medicare? (Exhibit A & Healthcare)Mike and Jason debate the feasibility of cutting significant costs from Medicare and Medicaid without reducing vital healthcare supply. They note that administrative overhead and inefficiencies might be the first area to tackle. The conversation tees up more detailed policy discussions for the next episode.[00:36:01]ConclusionHunt signs off by reminding listeners that cold weather can be a silver lining for those invested in fossil fuel companies. Mike underscores the importance of doing your own research, and the hosts promise deeper dives in upcoming episodes. Don’t forget to subscribe, download the memo, and join them next week for more pages and more picks!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESEpisode OverviewIn this special edition of the Cash Flow Memo, hosts Mike, Jason, and Hunt look back on their “12 Surprises” from last year—unconventional predictions with high potential impact—and discuss which came true and which missed the mark. Then they unveil fresh predictions for 2025, ranging from nuclear fusion milestones and AI-driven health breakthroughs to geopolitical events and government spending cuts.Revisiting the 12 Surprises of Last Year[00:01:01] 1. Saudi Arabia Shifts to Market Share ProductionHunt recaps his 2024 expectation that Saudi Arabia would ramp up production to maintain/expand market share.Outcome: The Saudis did not pivot to a “market share” strategy. Instead, OPEC+ postponed some production increases, partly due to uncertainties around Iran sanctions.2025 Outlook: Market-share-driven strategy remains unlikely unless geopolitical circumstances change (e.g., renewed Iran sanctions).[00:02:09] 2. Biden Administration Blocks New LNG ProjectsHunt notes the prediction that the current administration would impede further Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) development.Outcome: Yes, the Biden administration blocked the development of new LNG export projects.Future Scenario: A potential Trump administration could remove constraints.[00:02:20] 3. The Federal Reserve Comes to the RescuePrediction was for a major market disruption prompting an urgent Fed intervention.Outcome: No major crisis materialized in 2024 requiring such a rescue.[00:02:30] 4. A Treasury Bond Auction FailsHunt speculated that a failed auction might occur if interest rates soared.Outcome: No actual failure took place, but the 10-year yield continued climbing.2025 Outlook: Hunt expects 10-year yields to remain high (potentially in the 5.10–5.20% range), even if the Fed cuts rates.[00:03:59] 5. Apple Blocked from Paying Google for Default SearchHunt & Mike discuss how the DOJ’s antitrust case could end Google’s multi-billion-dollar deal with Apple.Outcome: Not yet resolved, but constraints on Google-Apple payments appear more plausible now.Jason suggests Microsoft focuses on AI-powered (e.g., ChatGPT-like) search instead of paying for default status.Mike’s Note: Apple’s revenue hit might be mitigated if a “universal” revenue-share approach replaces the exclusive deal.[00:11:00] 6. Apple Implements Edge AI ModelsJason predicted the iPhone 16 would feature on-device language models (improving Siri).Outcome: Hardware can support local AI, but software/OS-level support lags behind.2025 Outlook: Apple may open APIs for third-party developers, potentially boosting Apple’s competitive position—if done well.[00:12:57] 7. Voice Control for Tesla VehiclesJason predicted Tesla would enhance its built-in voice assistant.Outcome: Tesla released updates enabling voice commands for trunk/frunk and other controls.2025 Outlook: Further expansion likely, especially if Tesla’s “steering wheel-less” robo-taxis launch.[00:13:58] 8. U.S. Implements a National Framework for Autonomous DrivingJason & Mike consider how state vs. federal oversight might evolve.Outcome: No sweeping national framework in 2024, but talk of federal mandates (especially if the administration changes) remains.Discussion also touches on regulation for emerging personal “air taxi”/drone transport.[00:15:33] 9. Tepid Uptake of AI Leading to Overbuilt Data CentersMike describes how Big Tech has poured billions into AI infrastructure.Outcome: AI usage (e.g., ChatGPT, generative AI tools) is growing, but monetization still lags behind the hype.Tech companies remain optimistic about future revenue offsetting current massive spending.[00:16:15] 10. A Drug Designed with AI Gets FDA ApprovalHunt & Jason note that AI is prevalent in drug discovery (protein folding, molecular design).Outcome: While many drugs are in the pipeline, no major “AI-only” drug with a clear direct link has been approved yet.The line is blurry because most modern R&D integrates AI at some level.[00:17:41] 11. Generative AI Replaces InfluencersHunt questions whether top influencers (e.g., Elon Musk) could be supplanted by AI.Outcome: Real-world, high-profile personalities remain; however, AI “virtual influencers” do exist.Mike jokes that high-volume posting might be partially AI-assisted.[00:18:45] 12. FDA Expands In Silico ExperimentsMike explains “in silico” refers to computational drug testing.Outcome: No major regulatory breakthroughs in 2024; still potential for partial replacement of animal models in the future.New 2025 Surprises[00:21:05] 1. A Private Company Achieves Nuclear Fusion IgnitionJason anticipates a private firm matching Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s feat of net energy gain from fusion.Commercial viability remains far out, but venture-backed efforts might surpass prior milestones.[00:23:20] 2. FDA Bans Corn Syrup in Food ProductsJason predicts that, under an RFK Jr.-led FDA, a ban on high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) could disrupt the U.S. food supply chain.Such bans exist in

Welcome to our 2024 Cashflow Pick'em Results Epsode, where Hunt, Mike, and Jason recap the cashflow growth in each company in the memo. Download the memo at Telltales.us and check out episode 2401 where we made our initial picks, here: 2024 Cashflow Pick'emToday we will explore who came out on top in free cash flow growth and examine the forces shaping energy, technology, and healthcare in 2024.[00:01:03] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects Iranian oil exports to decline in early 2025 even without Trump reimposing sanctions. He sees the oil market surplus capacity tightening from 4.4 million barrels per day in 2024 to 3 million in 2025.[00:02:16] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Cold January weather has boosted near-term natural gas prices, but 2025 and 2026 prices remain flat. Power demand growth continues to outpace LNG.[00:02:59] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Elon Musk's influence and 200M Twitter followers are seen as a positive for deficit reduction efforts. Hunt is encouraged by the direction, even if cutting $1T in spending is a tall order.[00:03:53] 2024 Cashflow Pickem Results (Pages 20-1) Mike and Hunt review their cashflow growth predictions from the prior year's episode across all 20 pages (80 companies) of the memo. Mike wins with 11 points!The Telltales hosts scrutinize their 2024 cashflow picks, gleaning insights for their upcoming 2025 predictions. They also touch on the potential market implications of a second Trump term, particularly in energy and federal spending.Oakcliff Sailing Update & RequestsThis week on the Oakcliff segment, Dawn discussed the awesome accomplishments of Oakcliff Sailing this year. She suggests 3 ways you can support Oakcliff in 2025, they are…1. Join and/or host the Oakcliff Winter Tour - This is a two session event gathering our graduates and collaborators to entertain and educate in an effort to set up American Sailing for success into 2028 and beyond. Click here for more info.2. Train at Oakcliff in ‘25 - If you are into sailing haven’t yet trained at Oakcliff, you should! If you aren’t into sailing then you need to try it. Oakcliff has pathways for sailors of all levels. Check out www.oakcliffsailing.org for more.3. Make a donation to Oakcliff Sailing - It’s that time of year. Break out your checkbook and support Oakcliff! Donate Now!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

REQUEST!!This week on the Oakcliff segment, Dawn discussed the awesome accomplishments of Oakcliff Sailing this year. She suggests 3 ways you can support Oakcliff in 2025, they are… Join and/or host the Oakcliff Winter Tour - This is a two session event gathering our graduates and collaborators to entertain and educate in an effort to set up American Sailing for success into 2028 and beyond. Click here for more info.Train at Oakcliff in ‘25 - If you are into sailing haven’t yet trained at Oakcliff, you should! If you aren’t into sailing then you need to try it. Oakcliff has pathways for sailors of all levels. Check out www.oakcliffsailing.org for more.Make a donation to Oakcliff Sailing - It’s that time of year. Break out your checkbook and support Oakcliff! Donate Now!SHOWNOTESEpisode Introduction:In this episode, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence analyze the intersection of global energy markets, technology advancements—particularly in AI, autonomous vehicles, and robotics—and emerging trends in healthcare and finance. They reference data from their “Cash Flow Memo” to provide insights into future investment opportunities, policy implications, and the trajectory of innovation in various sectors.[00:00] Introduction (General)Mike welcomes listeners to Telltales and introduces the “Cash Flow Memo,” which dives into insights on energy, technology, and healthcare. The team sets the stage for a 30-minute exploration into market drivers, policy shifts, and future forecasts in these industries.[01:00] World Oil Supply & Demand (Exhibit C)The conversation centers on Iran’s oil exports and U.S. policy implications under a new administration. The hosts discuss China’s flat energy demand growth and the critical role supply-side adjustments play in maintaining stable oil prices. They explore the complexity of surplus management and its impact on Brent price stability.[04:00] U.S. Gas Demand & Supply (Exhibit B)The hosts analyze the natural gas market, noting seasonal demand fluctuations and the significance of capping dry gas production. They discuss the role of LNG exports, the influence of shifting power generation (including AI-driven demand), and the impact of surplus on price stability. Attention is given to how these factors interact with geopolitical events and long-term production targets.[06:00] U.S. Government Revenues & Expenses (Exhibit A)They review the U.S. fiscal picture, focusing on the two trillion-dollar deficit and the challenges of reducing spending by a trillion dollars. The conversation covers potential effects on 10-year rates, Fed funds rates, and overall economic stability. The hosts consider Elon Musk’s proposed budget cuts and regulatory reforms as aspirational steps toward balanced growth.[09:00] Consumer & Technology Stocks: Uber, DoorDash, Airbnb, Five Below, Harrow (Page 20)The discussion shifts to consumer and tech-related stocks. They consider the potential turnaround at Five Below, Airbnb’s struggles to maintain free cash flow growth, and Harrow’s supply-demand challenges. The team also contemplates how ride-hailing and delivery companies might adapt to autonomous transportation and AI-driven efficiencies.[11:00] Uber ($UBER) & the Advent of RoboTaxis (Pages 20 & 1)Focusing on Uber’s future, the hosts debate whether RoboTaxi services will reshape ride-hailing. They highlight partnerships like Uber-Waymo and consider Tesla’s Full Self-Driving technology. The conversation centers on who might control the “choke point” of aggregation and the margin opportunities that come from scaling autonomous fleets.[13:00] DoorDash ($DASH) & Humanoid Robots (Page 20)They explore the complexities of last-mile delivery and envision humanoid robots bridging the gap from the curb to the customer’s door. The hosts cite Tesla and other startups innovating in robotics, noting how AI-driven solutions can handle diverse delivery scenarios. This suggests a future where robots enhance logistics and efficiency in consumer delivery.[16:00] Tesla Valuation vs. Uber (Pages 1 & 20)The team evaluates Tesla and Uber in the context of autonomous driving’s long-term value creation. They weigh Tesla’s high valuation—backed by its leading tech—against Uber’s current multiples and potential platform advantages. This segment challenges listeners to consider both upside and risk in a rapidly evolving market.[17:00] Commodities & The China Effect (Page 18: FCX / ALB / CF / NEE)Focusing on commodity companies, they note that China’s maturing economy impacts copper, lithium, and ammonia demand. While China grows at 5%, the nature of its growth (services over heavy industry) may curb traditional resource demand. This leads to cautious optimism and moderated expectations for commodity-linked investments.[18:00] Logistics & Retail (Page 17: FDX / UPS / NKE / COST)The conversation turns to FedEx, UPS, Nike, and Costco. They consider Amazon’s logistics advancements as a significant competitive factor and specul

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Elon Musk's massive AI training cluster on the semiconductor industry, the future of self-driving cars, and the shifting landscape of chip manufacturing. They also explore the potential impact of Trump's FDA pick on healthcare costs and the U.S. budget.[00:06:27] Limits to GPU Scaling (Page 1) Jason and Mike discuss the limitations of scaling GPU clusters for AI training, with Elon Musk's plans to expand Tesla's cluster from 100,000 to 1 million GPUs. They explore the challenges of power consumption, data center capacity, and the potential solutions, such as linking data centers together.[00:11:21] TSMC Arizona Yield Comparison (Page 3) The team examines the success of TSMC's Arizona fab, which is producing 3nm chips with better yields than its Taiwan counterpart. They discuss the implications for U.S. participation in the semiconductor industry and the potential for TSMC to become a monopoly in leading-edge chip production.[00:17:00] Potential Suitors for Intel (Page 3) With Jeff Bezos back at Amazon, the team speculates on whether he or Elon Musk could be suitable candidates to turn around Intel's struggling foundry business. They discuss the challenges and opportunities of such an acquisition and its potential impact on the semiconductor industry.[00:19:00] Neural Networks for Full Self Driving Jason explains how Tesla's approach to autonomous driving differs from other companies, using neural networks trained on vast amounts of video data rather than detailed street maps. The team discusses the implications of this approach, including the potential for licensing the technology to other automakers.[00:25:25] Vertex's Manufacturing Partnership and Sickle Cell Treatment (Page 15) Jason shares news about Vertex's partnership with Saudi Arabia to develop a gene therapy production facility, targeting the country's high prevalence of sickle cell disease. The team also touches on the lack of updates regarding Vertex's pain medicine and diabetes treatment.[00:27:27] Trump's FDA Pick and Healthcare Price Transparency (Page 20 and Exhibit A) The team discusses the nomination of Marty McCary, a Harrow board member, to head the FDA. They explore his ideas for reducing healthcare costs through price transparency and the potential impact on the U.S. budget, given that healthcare accounts for a significant portion of government spending.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, from the cutting-edge developments in AI and self-driving cars to the shifting landscape of semiconductor manufacturing and the potential for healthcare reform under the new administration. Stay tuned for more insights and analysis on the industries shaping our future.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the challenges surrounding AI hallucination, the potential for healthcare reform under a new administration, and the outlook for the energy sector. They explore the legal and ethical implications of generative AI models, examine potential solutions to tackle healthcare costs, and analyze the effects of geopolitics and policy changes on oil and natural gas.[00:01:01] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects Iranian oil exports to decrease by half a million barrels per day in 2025 compared to Iran's own forecast. He notes that Chinese refiners are already taking less Iranian oil in anticipation of the new administration. However, if Iran agrees to give up uranium enrichment in exchange for lifting sanctions, oil surplus could increase.[00:02:58] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Hunt discusses the impact of cold weather on natural gas production and demand. He highlights the importance of LNG feed gas and power demand growth in keeping the storage change down and maintaining a year-round price of around $3.40.[00:04:08] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES Hunt examines the potential for spending cuts under the new administration, focusing on defense, "all other" expenses, and healthcare. He emphasizes the need to find savings in order to reduce the deficit and bring down the debt-to-GNP ratio.[00:06:01] Healthcare & D.O.G.E Jason and Mike discuss the potential vulnerabilities of healthcare companies under a new administration focused on cost reduction. They explore the challenges of implementing a single-payer system and the trade-offs involved in providing universal healthcare.[00:16:00] How Big Tech Deals with AI Hallucination The team delves into the issue of AI hallucination and the role of guardrails in managing the output of language models. They discuss the challenges of introducing biases during the reinforcement learning process and the potential need for regulation.[00:25:56] Section 230 and Content Moderation Hunt raises the question of whether websites should be held responsible for the content generated by AI models. Mike and Jason discuss the original intent of Section 230 and the challenges of content moderation in the era of generative AI.Get the latest memo at www.telltales.usHROW 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ UNH 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Download the memo at www.telltales.usSHOWNOTESJoin Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence on Telltales as they delve into the latest financial insights across the energy, technology, and healthcare sectors. This episode covers topics from global oil supply dynamics to the AI strategies of tech giants like NVIDIA and Apple.[00:00:34] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt discusses the current status of the global oil supply and demand, noting uncertainty regarding Iranian oil exports amidst geopolitical tensions. He suggests that with potential policy changes, oil prices may remain elevated due to efforts to reduce Iranian oil exports.[00:01:21] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B) Hunt comments on the US natural gas market, highlighting that colder weather is influencing gas prices positively. He notes the significant increase in US gas supply from 2021 to 2024, driven largely by "superman" production, and questions whether production will exceed 105 Bcf/d in the coming year.[00:02:08] Exhibit A: US GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A) Hunt reflects on the US government's fiscal situation, emphasizing the need to address the $2 trillion overspend with expenditures nearing $7 trillion and revenues just under $5 trillion. He mentions efforts by policymakers to find significant budget reductions within government spending.[00:02:50] Page 1: AAPL / AMZN / GOOG / MSFT / TSLA (Page 1) Hunt initiates a discussion on major tech companies. On Apple, Jason notes delays in AI developments, specifically the upgraded Siri, which won't roll out until early 2026, indicating Apple is behind competitors. Mike adds potential risks from antitrust issues affecting Apple's revenue from Google.[00:05:34] Amazon's AI Investments and Future Growth (Page 1) Jason and Mike discuss Amazon's significant capital expenditure on AI chips and R&D, highlighting that Amazon is investing heavily in future technologies, particularly in Amazon Web Services (AWS). They emphasize that this positions Amazon as bullish on the future, potentially yielding strong returns.[00:07:54] Alphabet's Antitrust Challenges (Page 1) Mike examines Google's valuation in light of ongoing antitrust litigation, which may impact its advertising revenue and partnerships, such as payments to Apple. They consider whether the potential breakup could unlock value, noting that historically, companies often perform better after antitrust actions.[00:09:59] Microsoft's AI Integration and Copilot Adoption (Page 1) Jason and Mike analyze Microsoft's AI product Copilot, noting slower than expected user adoption due to underwhelming user experience. They discuss the future potential of AI agents in automating tasks within Microsoft's suite, predicting that as the technology improves, adoption will increase.[00:13:09] Tesla's Autonomous Driving and Financial Strength (Page 1) Hunt and Jason talk about Tesla's financial performance and advancements in autonomous driving. Jason mentions the positive outlook due to potential national standards for autonomous driving under the new administration and improvements in Tesla's production efficiency and gross margins.[00:16:23] Page 3: NVIDIA's Unprecedented Growth (Page 3) Hunt highlights NVIDIA's massive increase in free cash flow, raising questions about the sustainability of its growth. Jason predicts strong growth for the next three years due to high demand for AI chips and data center expansions, though he anticipates growth may plateau thereafter as AI models mature.[00:23:02] Oakcliff Sailing Update An update from Dawn at Oakcliff Sailing expresses gratitude for supporters and shares success stories of graduates who have taken the organization's mission globally. She mentions upcoming fundraising efforts and thanks the hosts for their continued support.[00:24:51] Page 4: Netflix's Live Streaming Challenges (Page 4) The hosts discuss Netflix's attempt to stream live events, noting issues during the Mike Tyson event with poor video and sound quality. Jason explains the technical challenges of scaling live streaming to 100 million viewers and anticipates improvements before Netflix streams NFL games on Christmas Day.[00:29:49] Closing Remarks Hunt wraps up the episode, thanking Mike and Jason for their contributions and wishing listeners a good Thanksgiving. He mentions upcoming episodes and encourages everyone to stay healthy.Thank you for tuning into Telltales. Don't forget to download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and join us next week for more insights into the energy, technology, and healthcare sectors.#Investing, #AI, #NVIDIA, #Apple, #Amazon, #Tesla, #Microsoft, #Netflix, #EnergyMarkets, #OilPrices, #NaturalGas, #StockMarket, #TechStocks, #FinancialAnalysis, #AntitrustAAPL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ NFLX 0.00%↑ CRM 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team continues last week’s discussion on the potential impact of Donald Trump's election victory on pages 1-7 of the memo. They also delve into company-specific news and developments, such as Netflix's live streaming challenges and the future of the semiconductor industry.[00:00:49] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt discusses the potential impact of a Trump administration on the global oil market, particularly in relation to Iran's production and exports. The surplus capacity could dry up if the new administration tightens sanctions or makes a deal with Iran.[00:03:48] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY The team notes that natural gas prices are finally close to a three handle on the December contract, and the out years are behaving reasonably well. Hunt plans to update the natural gas demand and supply forecast for the following week.[00:04:16] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt believes that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will work on finding ways to make the government more efficient, with Musk aiming to save $2 trillion. Substantial reductions in healthcare spending may be necessary to achieve this goal.[00:05:07] Payment Companies: MA, V, PYPL (Page 7) The team discusses the potential impact of a Trump presidency on payment companies like Mastercard, Visa, and PayPal. They explore the role of crypto enthusiasts in shaping the administration's stance and the challenges blockchain faces in replacing traditional payment systems.[00:09:20] Telecom Companies: T, VZ, TMUS (Page 6) Hunt and the team analyze the prospects for AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile under a Trump administration. They discuss the completion of 5G network buildouts, potential changes in regulations, and the impact of low Earth orbit satellites on the industry.[00:12:11] Cable Companies: CHTR, CMCSA (Page 5) The discussion turns to the traditional cable companies, Charter and Comcast, and their transition into providing internet access. The team explores the strong competition in the industry and the potential impact of pharmaceutical advertising on news coverage.[00:17:40] Streaming and Media: NFLX, DIS, META, SPOT (Page 4) Jason and Mike delve into the challenges Netflix faced during the Mike Tyson fight live stream and the infrastructure required for successful live streaming events. They also discuss the differences between Netflix's traditional streaming model and live streaming.[00:21:17] Semiconductor Industry: NVDA, AMD, INTC, TSMC, ASML (Page 3) The team analyzes the semiconductor industry, focusing on the shift from human-based coding to learning algorithms and the importance of GPUs. They discuss the positions of NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor, and ASML in the market and the potential impact of tariffs and geopolitical factors.[00:28:34] Big Tech and Tesla: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, TSLA (Page 1) The conversation turns to the surge in Tesla's stock price following Trump's victory and Elon Musk's influence on policy and cabinet choices. They discuss the potential for federal licensing of autonomous driving and its impact on Tesla. The team also explores the proposed antitrust resolution for Alphabet's browser and the dynamics of search engine competition.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics related to the 2024 election outcome, providing insights and analysis on the potential impacts across various industries. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions on energy, technology, and healthcare in future episodes.#Semiconductors, #StreamingWars, #PharmaAds, #NewsMedia, #AntitrustLaw MA 0.00%↑ V 0.00%↑ PYPL 0.00%↑ T 0.00%↑ VZ 0.00%↑ TMUS 0.00%↑ CHTR 0.00%↑ CMCSA 0.00%↑ NFLX 0.00%↑ DIS 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ SPOT 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ ASML 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence analyze market impacts of the developing Trump administration across various sectors.⏱️ Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:30 - Intro00:00:44 - World Oil Supply/Demand Analysis03:42 - US Gas Demand/Supply Overview04:40 - US Government Revenues and Expenses05:30 - UBER/DASH/ABNB/FIVE/HROW Analysis06:33 - Healthcare Sector (UNH/CVS/REGN/LLY)09:39 - Mining & Energy (FCX/ALB/CF/NEE)13:06 - Restaurant & Hospitality Stocks14:11 - Food & Beverage Sector15:19 - Pharmaceutical Companies16:20 - Industrial Equipment17:41 - Financial Sector Analysis20:58 - Natural Gas Companies21:27 - Oil Companies Review21:40 - Midstream Companies21:51 - Major Oil Companies22:06 - Retail Sector Analysis🔑 Key Topics:Impact of Iran sanctions on oil marketsHealthcare sector reforms and PBM regulationsElectric vehicle market outlookFinancial sector regulatory changesEnergy sector developments💡 Featured Companies:Healthcare: UnitedHealth, CVS, Regeneron, Eli LillyEnergy: ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillipsTech: Uber, DoorDash, AirbnbRetail: Walmart, Target, Home Depot📝 Note: This episode contains investment analysis and market commentary. All discussions are for informational purposes only.#Trump2024, #EnergyPolicy, #HealthcareReform, #TechRegulation, #ChinaRelations, #IranSanctions, #UkraineNATO, #ElonMusk, #VivekRamaswamy, #GovernmentEfficiency$UNH $CVS $REGN $LLY $PFE $MRNA $LNTH $BNTX $VRTX $FCX $ALB $CF $NEE $FDX $UPS $NKE $COST $MCD $SBUX $CMG $CELH $HLT $WMT $TGT $LOW $HD $KMX $JPM $MS $GS $IBKR $AR $EQT $CHK $AM $EOG $MGY $PR $FANG $KMI $EPD $ET $WES $XOM $CVX $COP $OXY $LNGThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Donald Trump's 2024 election victory on healthcare, energy, and technology. They analyze key exhibits and dive into company-specific news and developments.[00:00:57] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Page 1) Hunt expects a Trump administration deal with China to tighten the oil market surplus in 2025 by phasing out Iranian barrels. Despite predictions of peak oil demand, the IEA still forecasts an increase in 2025 versus 2024.[00:02:10] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Page 1) Hunt anticipates better natural gas demand under Trump, with power demand outperforming LNG. He believes the administration will lift the hold on new LNG projects and combined cycle plants, leading to stronger demand growth.[00:04:32] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Page 1) Hunt emphasizes the need to reduce the deficit in "all other" expenses and hopes Elon Musk will help save $200-300 billion. The goal is to get the deficit trend moving downward and lower the debt-to-GNP ratio through economic growth.[00:08:41] Healthcare News: PFE, MRNA, LNTH, BNTX, VRTX (Page 15) Jason discusses the potential for changes to the ACA under Trump and the possibility of the FDA losing its food regulation responsibilities. Vertex's earnings and pipeline progress, particularly in type 1 diabetes, are highlighted, while Lantheus faces challenges with Pylarify sales growth.[00:21:15] Semiconductor Industry: NVDA, AMD, INTC, TSMC, ASML (Page 3) The team explores the implications of a Trump presidency on the semiconductor industry, including the Taiwan-China dynamic and the potential for Intel to be merged with Qualcomm or Broadcom. They also discuss the importance of ASML's lithography machines and the challenges Intel faces in catching up to TSMC.[00:28:06] Big Tech and Regulations: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, TSLA (Page 1) Mike examines the potential impact of a Trump administration on big tech companies, noting the president's anti-big tech stance. The team also discusses the possibility of easier acquisitions and fewer regulations in the tech sector.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics related to the 2024 election outcome, providing insights and analysis on the potential impacts across various industries. #Subscribe for more in-depth discussions on energy, healthcare, and technology.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES[00:00:00] Introduction[00:00:57] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandHunt discusses Israel's recent actions and their impact on oil facilities.Analysis of OPEC's plan to increase oil supply by one million barrels per day starting December.Suggestion to monitor oil company stocks for potential investment opportunities.[00:02:47] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand/SupplyExamination of gas demand growth and LNG exports.Discussion on renewable energy's impact on gas demand for power generation.Projections for gas prices in 2024 and 2025.Mention of increased gas imports from Canada.[00:05:53] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Revenues and ExpensesReview of the U.S. government's cash flow and spending challenges.Analysis of major expense categories: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, interest, and defense.Discussion on the difficulty of reducing government spending by $2 trillion.Emphasis on the need to flatline spending and promote economic growth.[00:08:24] AI's Impact on the Election CycleJason notes that fears about AI-generated misinformation did not materialize significantly.Discussion on deep fakes and the role of tech companies in suppressing misinformation.Mike cautions that the election is not over yet.[00:09:20] Analyzing the Netflix FranchiseHunt challenges Mike and Jason to analyze Netflix's position in the streaming industry.Comparison between Netflix, Spotify, and YouTube.Jason predicts a potential duopoly between Netflix and YouTube.Mike discusses different content types and their value, such as live sports vs. reusable shows.Analysis of competitive dynamics and market strategies of streaming services.[00:16:42] Franchise Values of Google, Microsoft, and Their ChallengersHunt questions the strength of Google's search franchise amid AI advancements.Jason and Mike discuss Bing's market share and the potential for AI to disrupt traditional search.Conversation about OpenAI, ChatGPT, and Google's AI capabilities.Speculation on Meta's influence by giving away AI products.[00:23:54] Healthcare Update: Lilly Earnings and Vertex PharmaceuticalsHunt introduces the healthcare segment focusing on Eli Lilly and Vertex Pharmaceuticals.Jason explains Lilly's earnings miss due to compounding pharmacies affecting sales.Discussion on FDA regulations and the legal battle with compounding pharmacies.Update on Vertex's pain drug, market size, and potential to reduce opioid addiction.Mention of CVS considering a breakup and antitrust actions against PBMs (Pharmacy Benefit Managers).Brief discussion on UnitedHealth's financial performance.[00:31:13] Closing Remarks$NFLX $GOOGL $MSFT $SPOT $META $AMZN $LLY $VRTX $UNH $CVSThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team dives into the latest developments in AI, analyzing the competitive landscape and opportunities for major tech companies. They also discuss Spotify's business model and moat, and examine the unsustainable U.S. deficit and its potential economic ramifications.[00:34] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt provides an update on the oil market, noting that while the prospect of Israeli missiles directed at Iranian export facilities has supported prices, surplus capacity of around 4 million barrels is likely to keep prices in check. He also highlights the mature nature of oil demand in developed economies.[03:19] US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B) Hunt discusses the substantial revisions made to the natural gas page, with production remaining flat but Canadian imports increasing significantly. He expresses concern about the recent drop in gas prices and the surplus of gas in storage.[06:18] US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A) Hunt emphasizes the unsustainable nature of the U.S. deficit, with government borrowing nearly $2 trillion last year. He notes the recent rise in 10-year bond yields and the potential challenges in financing the deficit while the Fed reduces its balance sheet.[08:34] JPM / MS / GS / IBKR (Page 13) The hosts review the nine-month results for major banks, focusing on their free cash flow and valuations. They compare the performance and business models of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.[11:21] NFLX / DIS / META / SPOT (Page 4) The discussion turns to media and content companies, with a focus on Spotify's business model and potential expansion into video. Mike and Jason analyze Spotify's network effects, revenue drivers, and challenges in creator compensation.[16:52] AI Agents Hunt introduces the topic of AI agents and their potential impact on various companies. Jason and Mike discuss the development of specialized and generalized AI agents, the importance of reducing errors, and the likely timelines for consumer-facing AI products.[29:42] NFLX / DIS / META / SPOT (Page 4) The hosts return to discussing Meta's advancements in AI and its potential to increase free cash flow compared to Amazon and Google. They also touch upon Google's advantages in the Android ecosystem and the potential impact of AI agents on app store revenues.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Show NotesIn this episode of Telltales, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence delve into the latest developments in energy, technology, and healthcare. Join them as they discuss the implications of Tesla's recent announcements, the groundbreaking Nobel Prize win by Google's DeepMind team, and the current state of global oil and gas markets.[00:52] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C)[05:27] US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B)[09:03] US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A)[09:35] Google Engineers Win Nobel Peace Prize[23:35] MAG7 Risks: TESLATopics Covered:Energy Market UpdatesGlobal Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C)Surplus Challenges: Discussion on the current surplus of 4 million barrels per day and its impact on oil prices.Geopolitical Factors: Insights into agreements between Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the U.S., and how Middle Eastern geopolitics affect oil markets.OPEC+ Strategies: Examination of OPEC+'s plan to incrementally increase oil supply starting in December.Price Predictions: Analysis suggesting oil prices may head lower, possibly into the low $60s by early next year.Production Dynamics: The role of non-OPEC production increases from regions like Guyana, Brazil, and West Texas.U.S. Natural Gas Demand and Supply (Exhibit B)Oversupply Issues: Overview of the current oversupply in the U.S. gas market and production curtailments by EQT and Chesapeake.Permian Basin Impact: Explanation of associated gas production from the Permian Basin contributing to increased supply.Demand Factors: Discussion on power generation demands, LNG export prospects, and their influence on future gas prices.Price Outlook: Expectations for sustained natural gas prices in the $3 range, with caution about potential market slides.U.S. Government Revenues and Expenses (Exhibit A)Deficit Concerns: Highlighting the nearly $2 trillion deficit and the lack of political discourse addressing it.Future Implications: The necessity for the next administration to tackle the deficit due to pressures from global capital markets.Healthcare NewsGoogle's DeepMind Engineers Win Nobel PrizeAlphaFold Breakthrough: Discussion on the Nobel Prize in Chemistry awarded for the development of AlphaFold, an AI system that predicts protein structures.Impact on Drug Discovery: How AlphaFold accelerates preclinical research by enabling rapid protein design and structure prediction.Industry Implications: Potential for pharma companies to license AlphaFold technology, changing the landscape of drug development.Technical Insights: Comparison of traditional methods versus AI-driven protein folding predictions.Mag 7 Risks: TeslaTesla's RoboTaxi Announcement: Summary of Tesla's recent unveiling of the RoboTaxi and humanoid robots.Vision for the Future: Elon Musk's portrayal of transportation becoming seamless and less intrusive in daily life.Technical Analysis: Discussion on the lack of detailed specifications and what that means for the rollout.Competition Landscape: Comparison with Waymo's approach, including differences in technology like LiDAR versus camera-only systems.Regulatory Challenges: Exploration of the hurdles Tesla may face in getting RoboTaxi approved in various states.Valuation Considerations: Debate on how many cars Tesla needs to sell to justify current valuations, factoring in the potential of RoboTaxi services.Global Outlook: Speculation on whether autonomous vehicle technology will advance more rapidly in China due to regulatory environments.Key TakeawaysEnergy Markets: Both oil and natural gas markets are experiencing oversupply, which may lead to lower prices unless production adjusts.Healthcare Innovation: AI breakthroughs like AlphaFold are poised to revolutionize drug discovery and development.Autonomous Vehicles: Tesla's ambitious plans for RoboTaxi could transform transportation but face significant technical and regulatory challenges.Economic Concerns: The U.S. deficit remains a critical issue that requires attention from policymakers.Connect with UsWebsite: Visit telltales.us to access the Cash Flow Memo and stay updated on future episodes.Subscribe: Follow us on your favorite podcast platform and never miss an episode.Feedback: Have questions or comments? Reach out to us through our website or social media channels.Thank you for tuning in to this episode of Telltales. Join us next week as we continue to explore the intersections of energy, technology, and healthcare shaping our world today.TSLA 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ EQT 0.00%↑ CHK 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ REGN 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ UBER 0.00%↑ LYFT 0.00%↑This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained her

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team dives deep into analyzing Microsoft's competitive position and cash flow drivers as the computing world stands on the cusp of an artificial intelligence revolution. Will Microsoft's key profit engines in Office and Windows withstand the AI wave or will the tech giant face disruption?[00:01] Energy & Macro Overview (Exhibits A, B, C) Hunt notes the reduction in oil surplus capacity and the recent uptick in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel. Natural gas prices have improved slightly but remain dependent on steady production and rising power demand. The US deficit came in lower than expected at $1.8T.[00:11] Commodity Check-In (Page 18) A look at how major commodity producers are faring - copper giant Freeport-McMoRan is holding steady with $3.7B in FCF while lithium leader Albemarle is struggling with nearly $2B in negative cash flow, despite both feeding into the EV and renewable energy transition.[00:16] Pfizer Under Pressure? (Page 15) With activist investor Starboard circling, the team debates whether Pfizer's challenges stem more from mismanaged expectations post-COVID or a thin pipeline and patent cliff issues that are spurring M&A across big pharma.[00:21] Microsoft: Mapping the Cash Flow (Page 1) Mike breaks down Microsoft's ~$70B in FCF: $40B+ from Office, $20B from Windows franchises, with the remainder from Azure cloud. Azure's 47% operating margins look rich, especially considering competition from Amazon, Google, and Oracle.[00:26] Windows and Office: Monopoly Profits (Page 1) Jason explains how Microsoft's dominance arose from the transition to personal computing, with Office's proprietary file formats creating a lock-in. Windows won on the desktop but lost in servers to Linux's superior reliability.[00:28] The AI Reckoning: Disruption or Sustaining Innovation? (Page 1) The team debates if the AI revolution, and Microsoft's bet on OpenAI, represents a sustaining innovation that will entrench incumbents or a disruptive threat. Will a new AI orchestration layer cement Microsoft's lead or will a paradigm shift in computing upset the old guard?The Telltales team tackles Microsoft's future in an AI-driven world. Will the tech titan's armor hold or will AI prove a disruptive force? Tune in next week as the crew shifts gears to discuss Tesla's RoboTaxi and the EV pioneer's place in an autonomous future.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, the Telltales team dives into the risks facing Meta (formerly Facebook, META 0.00%↑ ) as it navigates a shifting social media landscape and invests heavily in AI and the metaverse. They also discuss the latest healthcare news, including breakthroughs in treating diabetes and sickle cell disease.For earlier episodes in this series, check out:Apple's Underwhelming Reveal: A Sign of Shifting Tides? (e2437)Alphabet's Achilles Heel: Is Google the Next Kodak? (e2438)Examining Amazon's AI Strategy and Risks (e2439)[00:28] Magnificent 7 Cashflow Risks part 3: Meta (p. 1) Jason and Mike examine the challenges Meta faces, including competition from TikTok for younger users, its aging user base, reliance on Apple's platform, and the uncertain payoff of its massive investments in the metaverse. [09:47] Meta's Disadvantaged Position vs. Apple (p. 4) Mike explains how Meta's shift to mobile left it more constrained by and vulnerable to Apple compared to the desktop era. If Apple starts taking a cut of ad revenue, it could severely impact Meta's cashflow. While Meta is investing heavily in AI and VR to win the next computing platform, Apple is well-positioned to swoop in later as they did with mobile.[20:01] OpenAI's Latest Financing and Executive Departures Mike discusses OpenAI's new funding round, conversion to a for-profit company, and the concerning departure of several key employees. However, the release of GPT-4 shows the company continuing to push AI capabilities forward. The hosts ponder if starting as a non-profit before flipping to for-profit is an optimal strategy.[25:37] Healthcare News Roundup Jason covers Lantheus’s out-licensing a cardiac imaging agent to GE Healthcare, a Congressional bill that could enable patenting of DNA, Pfizer pulling a sickle cell drug due to risks outweighing benefits, Humana losing Medicare Advantage bonus payments, the continuation of Vertex's pain medication trials, and a small but promising diabetes trial in China.The Telltales Podcast brings you unparalleled weekly insights into the world of investing and company analysis. Be sure to download the Cash Flow Memo to follow along with the financials being discussed. Join us again next Wednesday for another deep dive!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

ShownotesIn this episode of Telltales Podcast, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence explore the cash flow characteristics of companies across sectors like energy, technology, and healthcare. They also provide insights into US government finances, natural gas, and oil markets. Here’s a breakdown of the main topics discussed.[00:32] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply and Demand The hosts discuss how macroeconomic factors and geopolitical changes in Lebanon have temporarily impacted oil prices, leading to a welcome strengthening in oil prices. (Exhibit C: Oil)[01:04] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand and Supply The conversation shifts to natural gas pricing trends. The hosts explore how recent price increases in gas contracts for 2025 and 2026 signal better conditions in the natural gas market, despite short-term fluctuations. (Exhibit B: Natural Gas)[02:00] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses The hosts express concerns over the growing US deficit, despite rising revenues. They discuss how high interest payments and increased spending in social programs are causing fiscal challenges. (Exhibit A: US Gov. Finances)[05:15] Amazon’s Risks and Uncertainties The team dives into Amazon’s business model, analyzing the risks in its AWS and third-party logistics business. They also assess the impact of AI competition and consumer spending trends on Amazon’s future. (Memo: Page 1, Amazon)[16:12] Pharmacy Benefit Managers and Antitrust Scrutiny Jason discusses the FTC investigation into Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) and their use of rebates that push patients toward higher-cost drugs. The segment highlights how this affects drug pricing, particularly insulin. (Memo: Page 19, PBMs)[18:21] Eli Lilly’s Market Position and GLP-1 Competition Eli Lilly’s success with its weight loss and diabetes drugs is under the spotlight, though government price negotiations may soon pressure its GLP-1 drug prices. The team also discusses future competition in this drug category. (Memo: Page 19, Lilly)[20:11] Visa Antitrust Concerns Visa faces antitrust scrutiny. The team discusses potential impacts on their business models, ongoing lawsuits, and how these companies handle regulatory challenges. (Memo: Page 7, MA/V)[22:53] Nuclear Power and Tech Support for Clean Energy The hosts explore the role of nuclear power in meeting clean energy goals, particularly with tech companies like Apple backing it as a clean source. Regulatory hurdles remain a major challenge in expanding nuclear energy infrastructure. (Memo: Page 1, Microsoft & Nuclear)[24:55] Software Giants: Salesforce, Oracle, and AI GrowthSalesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake come under scrutiny for their ability to generate free cash flow. Oracle’s success in leveraging AI for database optimization is highlighted as a key growth area. (Memo: Page 2, CRM/NOW/ORCL)Join us next week as we continue to evaluate top companies based on their cash flow characteristics. Stay tuned for more insights into the energy and technology sectors, and don't forget to download the latest Cash Flow Memo for detailed data.AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ ORCL 0.00%↑ MA 0.00%↑ V 0.00%↑ PYPL 0.00%↑ CRM 0.00%↑ NOW 0.00%↑ SNOW 0.00%↑ AVGO 0.00%↑ LLY 0.00%↑ NVO 0.00%↑This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, the Telltales team dives deep into the risks and uncertainties facing Google and its parent company Alphabet as AI technologies like ChatGPT threaten to disrupt its long-standing search business model. Jason shares his concerns that Google could become the next Kodak if it fails to adapt to the AI-powered future of search.[00:08:17] Google's AI Search Dilemma (Page 1) Jason warns that Google's model of 10 blue links for search, which has been around for over 20 years, is vulnerable to disruption from large language models and AI-powered search interfaces being developed by Microsoft, OpenAI, and other well-funded startups. The key question is whether these new AI search technologies will upend Google's dominance.[00:14:59] The Future of Search & AI (Page 1) The hosts discuss the potential for AI search to be too computationally expensive, which could help Google maintain its low-cost advantage. However, Jason notes that hardware and software improvements are rapidly bringing down the cost of running AI inferences. Mike suggests that an AI orchestration layer running on devices could efficiently outsource queries to the most capable resources.[00:27:15] Healthcare Updates (Page 15) Jason shares updates on Lantheus' prostate cancer treatment data, which showed improvement but didn't outperform Novartis' Pluvicto. He also mentions Vertex's excitement about their pain program and the pending release of Biontech's melanoma study data.[00:29:49] Next Week Preview: Mag7 Risks Hunt teases that they will continue analyzing the potential weaknesses of another one of the "Magnificent 7" companies in next week's episode, but keeps the specific company a secret for now.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in the energy sector, Apple's lackluster iPhone 16 launch event, and exciting updates from biotech companies Vertex, BioNTech, and Harrow Health.[00:01:05] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Hunt notes that oil is in decline, with China's demand forecast to be flat. Surplus capacity remains at 4M barrels, mostly controlled by the Saudis and Abu Dhabi. He advises waiting or buying half positions in upstream oil companies.[00:01:50] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply Natural gas production continues to rise despite curtailments by major producers. LNG projects are delayed and futures prices remain low. The Permian basin is the largest growth area.[00:03:03] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses The US deficit is projected to be around $1.6 trillion in 2024. Spending cuts will need to be addressed by the next administration.[00:03:42] Energy Review (pages 9-12) Hunt goes through the energy pages, focusing on midstream and diversified oil & gas companies. He highlights Antero Resources and its midstream subsidiary as an interesting comparison. [00:09:41] Is 30x Free Cash Flow = Value? (page 1) The hosts discuss whether 30 times free cash flow is a reasonable valuation for high-quality companies in the current interest rate environment. They note the importance of confidence in future growth at higher multiples.[00:14:59] Apple iPhone 16 Launch - Underwhelming? (page 1) Jason and Mike debate the significance of Apple's underwhelming iPhone 16 launch. While new features were limited, Mike argues Apple is transitioning to a services-focused business model. Jason questions if Apple can compete as a software company against the likes of Google and Meta.[00:23:58] Healthcare News Roundup (pages 15, 19, 20) Jason provides updates on Vertex, Harrow Health, and BioNTech from recent healthcare conferences. Vertex's CEO referred to their diabetes treatment as a potential cure. Harrow's subsidiary Melt Pharmaceuticals could have a $100M business at launch. BioNTech is set to announce data from its oncology programs.The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics this week, providing valuable insights for investors interested in energy, technology, and healthcare. Tune in for the full discussion and analysis.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the macro environment, including government finances and energy markets, and debates the investment merits of big tech stocks trading at 30-50x free cash flow. They also dive deep into NVIDIA's leading position in accelerated computing and the potential threats to its dominance.[00:00] Oil & Gas (Exhibits B & C): Hunt opens the discussion by examining the current state of oil and natural gas markets, noting the influence of factors like China's demand and U.S. production.[06:09] Exhibit A: US Gov't Revenues and ExpensesHunt analyzes the US government's financial situation, noting the challenges in raising additional revenue or cutting expenses meaningfully. He suggests that in the upcoming presidential debate, neither side will be able to make a strong case for fiscal improvement.[09:20] Page 1: AAPL / AMZN / GOOG / MSFT / TSLA The team examines the high free cash flow multiples of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks and debates whether they represent good value in an environment of elevated interest rates, given their strong competitive positions and growth prospects.[12:22] Page 3: NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML Mike and Jason do a deep dive on NVIDIA, discussing why its 15-20 year lead in AI accelerators will be hard for competitors to close, even as generative AI could potentially help them develop rival software platforms faster. However, they believe NVIDIA's ecosystem advantage will be difficult to overcome.[20:30] Page 3: Nvidia's Competition The team considers potential threats to NVIDIA's dominance, including hyperscalers developing their own AI chips and AMD's efforts to catch up with its ROCm platform. However, they believe NVIDIA's software lead and incumbent position with developers give it a strong moat.[23:26] Pages 15 & 19: Healthcare News Jason provides updates on Vertex's regulatory issues in the UK, Novartis divesting its radiopharmacy business in Europe while expanding in the US, and the market opportunity for Lantheus' Alzheimer's diagnostic imaging agent.[25:35] Page 3: Nvidia Blackwell Delay The hosts discuss the implications of NVIDIA delaying its next-gen Blackwell chip by 2 months. They mostly see it as a minor issue and potentially a strategic move to optimize yields, especially since NVIDIA is still ahead of competitors.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in energy markets, semiconductor stocks, and biotech. Key topics include Intel's decline due to strategic missteps, NVIDIA's AI leadership and competitive risks, and updates on oil, natural gas, and the U.S. deficit.[00:59] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt notes 4 million barrels per day of spare production capacity, mostly from Saudi Arabia and UAE. If this supply came online, oil prices could drop significantly. Easing of tensions in Ukraine and Middle East could be bearish for oil.[03:19] US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B) Natural gas prices are falling as storage levels rise much faster than normal, with the November contract trading in low $2 range. Weather will be a key factor, but persistently low prices could be a risk, especially for Haynesville producers.[04:20] US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A)The U.S. deficit remains a long-term challenge with no easy solutions. [06:39] Energy Earnings Updates: 2024Q2 (Pages 9-12) Hunt reviews the latest results and outlook for Antero, EQT, Chesapeake, EOG, Magnolia, Permian Resources, Diamondback, Kinder Morgan, Enterprise, Energy Transfer, and the oil majors. [13:44] Intel's Journey to Irrelevance (Page 4) The team discusses how Intel went from being the dominant chipmaker to facing an existential crisis due to missing mobile and AI trends. With $15B of annual cash burn and $48B of debt, major restructuring may be needed. Meanwhile, NVIDIA has grown from $5B to $110B+ in revenue.[19:16] Nvidia's Risks (Page 4) While hyperscalers like Amazon and Google are developing their own AI chips for cost and performance reasons, they are likely to still rely heavily on NVIDIA GPUs. Energy availability is a potential risk. Mike & Jason published an article on Nvidia’s 5 risks which you can get from their website: www.topmarkcapital.com [24:54] PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTX (Page 15) Jason provides an update on the latest in biotech, including Novartis divesting its radiopharmacy unit, viewing Lantheus' network as a strategic asset. BioNTech also announced promising early results for an mRNA lung cancer vaccine. Be sure to subscribe and leave a review - and don't forget to sign up for the Cashflow Memo at telltales.us!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

ShownotesIn this episode, the Telltales Podcast team explores recent developments in healthcare, the importance of founder stories in investing, and potential economic risks on the horizon.[00:00:54] World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C) The Iranian response to recent events in Tehran has been delayed indefinitely, potentially impacting oil prices. The team discusses the ongoing situation between Hamas and Israel, as well as Saudi Arabia and UAE's role in the oil market surplus.[02:29] US Gas Demand/Supply (Exhibit B) Concerns are raised about natural gas prices and consumption due to unseasonably warm weather in New York. The team suggests delaying discussion on energy companies to monitor price developments.[03:12] US Government Revenues and Expenses (Exhibit A) The podcast highlights the growing deficit and potential risks associated with high government debt. They predict a possible financial event in the coming year that could impact the markets.[03:45] Financial Institutions Overview (Page 13) Discussion of JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and the addition of Interactive Brokers to their analysis. The team emphasizes the importance of overnight borrowing in the repo market and potential risks associated with it.[06:59] Jobs Data Revision The team analyzes the recent significant downward revision of job gains by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, comparing it to similar revisions during the 2009 financial crisis.[08:55] Telltales Founder Stories Gwendolyn and Holly share insights from their research on company founders, highlighting stories from NVIDIA, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, TSMC, and Interactive Brokers. The team emphasizes the importance of studying founders for investment decisions.[13:31] Healthcare Sector Analysis (Page 19) In-depth discussion of recent developments in the GLP-1 drug market, focusing on Eli Lilly's recent study results and FDA decisions. The team explores the potential impact on healthcare spending and competition in the market.[25:10] Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Diabetes Research (Page 15) The podcast concludes with a discussion of Vertex Pharmaceuticals' promising early-stage research on type 1 diabetes treatment and the company's unique approach to drug development.Don't forget to subscribe to our email list at telltales.us for weekly updates on cashflow analysis across various sectors!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, we dive into the latest developments in technology, pharmaceuticals, and global markets, exploring the strategies of industry leaders and emerging trends.[00:01:18] World Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C) Oil consumption forecasts have been reduced due to slowdowns in China's economy, particularly in construction and infrastructure. The oil price remains stable due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Israel. Saudi Arabia and the UAE may increase oil supply to the market.[03:16] US Gas Demand and Supply (Exhibit B) Natural gas prices hit unprecedented lows in August due to surplus supply. Expectations are for prices to rise to the $3 range as we enter the November contract trading period.[04:04] US Government Revenues and Expenses (Exhibit A) The Treasury Department projects a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal 2024. Interest rates are discussed, with expectations that they will not return to post-2008 levels due to ongoing debt issuance needs.[09:39] Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Page 15) The story of Vertex's founder, his mission to combat disease, and the company's journey from its inception to becoming a leader in cystic fibrosis treatment is explored. The importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and technological innovation in drug discovery is highlighted.[15:03] TSMC and BYD (Page 3) The similarities between TSMC and BYD are discussed, including their ability to leverage government support and their focus on cutting-edge technology and talent acquisition. The potential threat BYD poses to Tesla is briefly mentioned.[17:42] Retail Businesses (Page 8) Home Depot's results indicate a weak consumer market. The impact of interest rates on the home improvement sector is discussed.[18:31] Harrow Earnings Update (Page 20) Harrow reported strong earnings, exceeding sales expectations. The company's five-year plan and potential for continued growth in the ophthalmic pharmaceutical market are discussed.[20:34] Lantheus Earnings Recap (Page 15) Lantheus reported good results but also increased expenses, particularly in R&D and sales staff, in preparation for new drug launches.[21:50] Hyperscale Capex (Pages 1, 2, 3, 4) The continued high capital expenditure of large tech companies, particularly in AI and data centers, is discussed. The potential impact on Nvidia's future sales and profitability is explored.[27:10] Google's Antitrust Ruling (Page 1) The recent antitrust ruling against Google is discussed, including potential remedies and the impact on Google's agreement with Apple for default search engine status.[29:49] Google Pixel 9 Phone and Gemini Launch (Page 1) Google's announcement of their new Pixel phones and the Gemini AI product is covered, comparing it to Apple's upcoming offerings and discussing potential pricing strategies for AI features.In conclusion, this episode provides a comprehensive look at key developments across multiple industries, offering insights into market trends, technological advancements, and regulatory challenges facing major companies.$TSM $BYDDY $TSLA $VRTX $HD $LOW $HROW $LNTH $NVDA $MSFT $GOOGL $AAPL $META $AMZN $ORCLThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

ShownotesIn this episode of the Telltales Podcast, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence explore recent market events, discuss key companies across various sectors, and analyze their cash flow characteristics.[00:00:00] Introduction and Recent News (Exhibit C)Hunt discusses the recent antitrust judgment against Google and its potential impact on Apple. The hosts briefly touch on oil and gas market conditions.[03:21] Natural Gas Market Update (Exhibit B)Hunt provides an overview of the current weak state of the natural gas market, with prices at historic lows and ample storage.[03:52] U.S. Government Finances (Exhibit A)The hosts discuss the challenges facing the U.S. government's fiscal situation, including rising interest expenses and the need for spending cuts.[05:22] Healthcare Companies Update (Page 15)The team reviews recent developments for Lantheus and Vertex Pharmaceuticals, noting positive outlooks for both companies.[07:23] Industrial and Manufacturing Sector (Page 14)Hunt analyzes the performance of Caterpillar, Deere, Generac, TransDigm, and Fastenal, highlighting their business models and cash flow characteristics.[10:36] Financial Institutions Overview (Page 13)The hosts discuss JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, examining their valuations and dividend policies.[12:13] Japanese Yen Carry Trade ExplanationHunt and the team provide a detailed explanation of the recent market dislocation caused by the unwinding of the yen carry trade.[17:31] Semiconductor Industry Deep Dive (Page 3)The hosts discuss NVIDIA's recent challenges and the overall state of the semiconductor industry, including Intel's struggles to remain competitive.[27:04] Tech Giants and Antitrust Concerns (Page 1)The episode concludes with a brief discussion of the recent antitrust judgment against Google and its potential implications for other tech giants.Don't forget to subscribe to our email list at telltales.us to receive our weekly cash flow memo, covering 80 companies, U.S. government finances, and the energy sector!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:56 - Market Update: Oil and Natural Gas• Oil pricing weakening; 4.4 million barrels of excess production capacity not being produced• Saudi Arabia and UAE may increase production in fall, causing near-month prices to drop• Natural gas trading very low due to oversupply; prices expected to improve in winter00:03:10 - U.S. Political Landscape and Budget• Discussion of Vice President Harris• Speculation on expiring Trump tax cuts and their impact on income tax revenue00:04:20 - Company Analysis: Retail and Transportation• 5 Below facing challenges with CEO departure• Uber's future uncertain with AI and Robotaxi developments• FedEx and UPS competing against Amazon's logistics• Nike struggling but maintains strong balance sheet• Costco performing well but expensive at 50x free cashflow00:11:39 - Restaurant and Beverage Stocks• McDonald's and Starbucks struggling with same-store sales growth• Chipotle rebounding strongly after E. coli issues• Detailed discussion on Celsius Holdings' growth challenges and market position00:15:03 - Healthcare Sector Update• Vertex Pharmaceuticals' VX548 non-opioid pain treatment submission accepted by FDA• PDUFA date set for January 30, 2025• Discussion on effectiveness compared to opioids and market potential00:16:20 - Tech Sector: Microsoft Earnings and AI Developments• Microsoft's earnings meet expectations but fall short of some predictions• AI Copilot sales lower than expected due to capacity constraints• Plans for increased capital expenditure to support AI infrastructure00:20:39 - AI in Finance: JPMorgan's Language Model• JPMorgan developing its own AI language model for internal use• Discussion on potential use of NVIDIA servers and open-source models like Meta's Llama00:24:58 - Future of Search and AI• Speculation on how search might evolve in the next 2-3 years• Potential shift towards chat interfaces and cited references• Challenges with data sources and closed social networks00:29:06 - Apple's AI Strategy and Future of Mobile• Apple's delayed AI capabilities for iPhone 16 Pro• Potential impact on Apple's business model, particularly Google revenue sharing• Discussion on conflicts between app developers and AI assistants00:31:42 - Conclusion and Next Week's TopicsFIVE 0.00%↑ UBER 0.00%↑ UNH 0.00%↑ FCX 0.00%↑ ALB 0.00%↑ CF 0.00%↑ NEE 0.00%↑ FDX 0.00%↑ UPS 0.00%↑ NKE 0.00%↑ COST 0.00%↑ MCD 0.00%↑ SBUX 0.00%↑ CMG 0.00%↑ CELH 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ JPM 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes00:00 - Introduction00:46 - Oil Market UpdateDiscussion of 2025 oil supply and demand projectionsEstimated 104.5 million barrels per day of supply and demandBreakdown of crude oil vs other liquids in production figuresSaudi Arabia and UAE holding back 3.5 million barrels of surplus productionCaution advised on investing in oil producers currently03:00 - Natural Gas MarketCurrent low prices for natural gas Storage levels 500 BCF above 5-year averagePotential for price improvement later in the yearAdvice to wait before investing in natural gas producers05:00 - U.S. Government Cash Flow StatementAnalysis of CBO forecasts and estimatesCurrent deficit running at about $1.5 trillion in full employment economyChallenges in reducing spending or increasing revenueDiscussion of potential impacts on corporate taxes, tariffs, and individual taxesConcerns about long-term deficit sustainability10:44 - Healthcare Sector UpdateProjection of 8% increase in medical costs for next yearGovernment actions against Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs)UnitedHealth Group earnings growth driven by PBM business (OptumRx)12:25 - CrowdStrike Software Issue ExplanationDetailed breakdown of the cybersecurity software update that caused widespread crashesImpact on various industries including airlines and banksTechnical explanation of the bug and its effectsDiscussion of potential fallout for CrowdStrike and cybersecurity industry19:48 - Tesla AnalysisReview of Tesla's recent financial resultsDiscussion of Tesla's various business segments: automotive, autopilot/robotaxi, humanoid robotsValuation considerations for Tesla stockUpcoming robotaxi event on October 10thAnalysis of Tesla's automotive business value and potentialConsideration of geopolitical factors affecting factory locations29:40 - NVIDIA and Tech SpendingBrief discussion on NVIDIA's chip sales and marginsGoogle/Alphabet's continued heavy CapEx programImplications for NVIDIA's future sales and market reaction31:26 - Closing RemarksThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes00:00 - Introduction02:24 - Natural Gas Market UpdateToo much gas in storage causing low near-month pricesWarm weather across US impacting demandPower prices held down by cheap gas pricesChicago City Gate price unusually close to Henry Hub04:01 - US Government FinancesReview of Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts/estimatesDiscussion of accuracy issues with CBO numbersGoal to reduce "all other" spending category to improve debt-to-GDP ratio07:03 - Healthcare Companies ReviewAddition of Harrow Health to watchlistHarrow's growth plans and potential upside discussedEli Lilly's strong performance in pharmaceutical sectorVertex Pharmaceuticals licensing deal for gene therapy researchLantheus Holdings positive developments:CMS draft guidance on radio diagnostics billingAcquisition of new Alzheimer's diagnostic technology18:18 - Semiconductor Industry UpdatesASML criticized for sending equipment to ChinaPotential impact of sanctions on ASML's businessDiscussion of Taiwan's importance in semiconductor manufacturingTrump's comments on Taiwan's strategic importance23:46 - Cybersecurity and Cloud ComputingSnowflake's reputation impacted by customer data breachesGoogle's plans to acquire cloud security startupImplications for cloud market competition27:06 - Tesla and Electric VehiclesDelay of Tesla's robotaxi reveal to OctoberSpeculation on design changes for Model 2/robotaxi platform28:11 - Tech Giants and Clean EnergyMicrosoft-Occidental carbon credit offset dealTech companies reassessing carbon offset strategiesChallenges of powering data centers with clean energy31:14 - AI Impact on Software CompaniesDiscussion of how AI is affecting various software providersServiceNow's AI integration for customer service highlighted32:56 - Closing RemarksThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:48 - Energy Market UpdateReview of OPEC and IEA supply/demand numbers for 2024Discussion of Saudi Arabia and UAE's production capacity and disciplineNatural gas prices and production updatesLNG export facilities and delays (Freeport, Golden Pass)06:02 - Healthcare Sector DiscussionFTC's 70-page report criticizing pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs)Top 3 PBMs control 80% of prescription flow in USPotential regulatory risks for UnitedHealth, CVS, and CignaVertex and Lantheus UpdatesLantheus: Positive CMS guidance on reimbursement for radio diagnostic testsVertex: Brief mention of preclinical data on potential sickle cell treatmentNew Healthcare Company Spotlight: HarrowSpecializes in ophthalmic care and anestheticsCEO background and capital allocation strategyInnovative approach to R&D through spinoffs (Eaton, Melt, Surface Ophthalmics)22:03 - AI and Tech DiscussionOpenAI, Microsoft, and AppleApple dropping observer status on OpenAI boardSpeculation on potential IPO for OpenAIMicrosoft's investment and revenue rights in OpenAIXAI and Competition in AIDiscussion of Elon Musk's XAI catching up to OpenAI and GoogleImportance of data access and compute power in AI developmentPotential for new AI techniques beyond large language models29:13 - Electric Vehicle Industry UpdatesTesla's new Full Self-Driving software integrating highway and street modelsBYD setting up factory in Turkey to avoid tariffsChinese EV manufacturers' expansion into Europe and potential US entry31:21 - Closing RemarksThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes00:00:00 - Introduction00:01:10 - Oil and Gas Market UpdateDiscussion of OPEC and IEA reports on oil production and demand growth forecastsAnalysis of differences between OPEC and IEA projectionsNear-term natural gas prices weak due to recent heat wave not significantly impacting power pricesMarcellus producers EQT and Chesapeake curtailed production, now back online00:03:30 - U.S. Government Spending and DeficitPoor performance by Joe Biden in recent debate sparks speculation about his candidacyDiscussion of $1.6 trillion overspending forecast for 2024 fiscal yearConcerns about U.S. dollar's position as world reserve currency due to continued deficitsDifficulty in curtailing deficits highlightedFor an in depth perspective on Trump, see the All-In podcast interview and followup.00:07:15 - Interest Rates and Federal Reserve PolicyAnalysis of potential long-term interest rates in relation to inflationDiscussion of quantitative easing and tightening by the Federal ReserveCritique of Federal Reserve's decision to slow balance sheet reduction00:12:54 - Healthcare Sector UpdateFocus on weight loss medicines and patent expirations (e.g. Semaglutide patent expiring March 2026)Competitive landscape for GLP-1 drugs and potential new compounds in developmentDiscussion of Lantheus' PET imaging product for tau protein tangles in Alzheimer's research00:21:54 - Tech Sector News: Apple and AIApple's potential board seat on OpenAI and implications for MicrosoftSpeculation on Apple's AI strategy and integration into iPhonesDiscussion of power requirements and CO2 emissions from data centers running AI models00:27:56 - Oakcliff Sailing UpdateBrief interlude with update from Jenny Duclay at Oakcliff Sailing00:30:15 - Nvidia and GPU AvailabilityAnalysis of A100 and H100 GPU availability in data centersDiscussion of investment payback period for GPUs (approximately 1 year)Continued strong demand for GPUs in data centers00:32:14 - Energy Infrastructure and Data CentersImpact of heat waves on power demand and natural gas pricesChallenges in approving new data centers due to power requirementsPotential for citizen pushback against rising electricity prices due to data center demand00:34:18 - Tesla Production UpdateQ2 vehicle production numbers lower year-over-year but higher than analyst expectationsStrong performance in Chinese production and deliveriesDiscussion of competitive landscape for EVs and potential growth rate00:35:09 - Closing RemarksThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:55 - Oil and Gas Market UpdateOPEC+ meeting impact on oil prices: WTI dropped from $80 to $74, now back to $80Geopolitical risk premium due to Gaza conflict and potential Israel-Hezbollah tensionsNatural gas prices remain low despite heat waveGas production running at 100 bcf/day, down from 104 bcf/day in NovemberNew pipeline from West Texas to Gulf Coast opening in August05:38 - US Government FinancesNeither presidential candidate likely to address need for increased taxes or reduced spendingSocial Security and Medicare trust funds projected to run low in 4-5 yearsBreakdown of federal revenue sources: individual income tax, corporate tax, payroll taxesChallenges in raising additional revenue or cutting major spending categories09:12 - Healthcare Sector UpdateVertex Pharmaceuticals' promising phase 1/2 results for type 1 diabetes treatment11 of 12 patients insulin-independent at 90 days, 3 patients still independent at 1 yearEli Lilly seeking FDA approval for GLP-1 drug to treat sleep apneaGLP-1 drugs on FDA shortage list, allowing compounding pharmacies to produce versionsHims & Hers Health to offer compounded semaglutide, stock rallied on news15:39 - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Deep DiveStrategy of targeting undertreated diseases with smaller patient populationsContinuous improvement in cystic fibrosis treatmentsPipeline includes treatments for kidney disease, pain, and type 1 diabetesNon-opioid pain medication in phase 3 trials with potential for nerve pain treatmentAcquisition strategy combining technologies (e.g. stem cells and encapsulation for diabetes)21:15 - Tesla and EV Market AnalysisBreaking down Tesla's valuation between automotive business and other venturesMorgan Stanley price target of $310/share, only $105 attributed to automotiveOther potential value drivers: full self-driving/robotaxi service, humanoid robotsChallenges in EV market: higher interest rates, increased competitionComparison to Apple's ecosystem and customer loyaltyChinese competition in low-cost EV production29:21 - Wrap-up and Next Week's PreviewThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

[00:00:00] Intro[00:00:49] Exhibit C - Oil Demand and Supply[00:02:11] Exhibit B - Natural Gas Production[00:03:42] Exhibit A - Government Deficit[00:04:55] Apple's AI Approach: The discussion turns to Apple's measured approach to AI, focusing on developing a small on-device model and leveraging the platform to bring in external models like OpenAI. Mike believes this demonstrates Apple's strengths in secure and sensitive handling of personal data. The OpenAI partnership is likely a freemium model where Apple takes a revenue share of premium subscriptions. This could become a meaningful part of Apple's services business.[00:09:52] Microsoft vs Apple AI Strategies: Microsoft is taking an enterprise approach, integrating Copilot across its software suite. OpenAI's business through the Apple channel will likely be more consumer-driven. The cost of inference on newer AI models is substantially higher than older ones, but will decrease with new NVIDIA hardware generations.[00:11:49] Monetizing AI: OpenAI's monetization paths include consumer and enterprise offerings and APIs for other companies to integrate AI capabilities. Many software companies are exploring AI enhancements for their products, such as generating email responses in sales or chatbots for customer support.[00:14:03] OpenAI's Future: Jason believes Microsoft will likely acquire OpenAI at some point. Google's response to Apple's AI moves and the potential impact on search is discussed. Technology often sees mainstream adoption after Apple integrates it into their products.[00:16:55] Oracle's AI Infrastructure Play: Oracle is building a massive data center entirely populated with NVIDIA chips for AI training, with half the capacity pre-sold to Microsoft. This may be to support the increased compute needs from the Apple-OpenAI deal. Larry Ellison is inserting Oracle into the AI supply chain by securing preferential access to NVIDIA chips and providing GPU compute to hyperscalers. Data center capacity, rather than GPUs themselves, may become the choke point.[00:19:16] Crypto Miners and Power Infrastructure: The discussion briefly touches on how crypto miners with existing power interconnects could be acquired for their infrastructure to support AI data centers, as getting power from utilities to new facilities can take years.[00:20:29] Oakcliff Sailing Sponsorship Message: A brief sponsorship message from Oakcliff Sailing, featuring testimonials from sailors David Hervey and Kate Mattiello about their training experiences and Olympic aspirations.[00:21:04] Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake: Jason mentions a hack related to Snowflake customer datasets, potentially due to a compromised sales engineer account without proper multi-factor authentication. This could slow down Snowflake's sales process if it leads to more stringent security requirements when engaging customers.[00:25:41] Healthcare News - Celsius, Eli Lilly, Vertex: In healthcare, Celsius' growth was reported as slowing based on Nielsen data, but this may be due to data gathering changes. Eli Lilly announced positive trial results for an Alzheimer's treatment, more effective than the current standard but still with a low bar. Vertex has started submitting data to the FDA for their pain medicine, with potential approval by end of year.[00:29:05] NVIDIA News: NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang made a high-profile visit to Taiwan, and the company announced a 10-for-1 stock split, possibly positioning for inclusion in the Dow Jones index. TSMC's monthly reports show steady improvements.[00:30:58] Streaming and Sports Content: The hosts plan to discuss streaming and sports content rights in the next episode, with the NBA parceling out their events to likely partners Comcast and Disney.[00:32:14] Closing Remarks This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES00:00:00 - Introduction00:01:02 - OPEC+ Meeting and Oil PricesDiscussion on the recent OPEC+ meeting in Riyadh and its impact on oil prices.Analysis of Saudi Arabia's strategy to phase in withheld production and its implications for global oil markets.00:05:39 - U.S. Government FinancesExamination of U.S. government spending, interest rates, and the budget deficit.Discussion on the need for bipartisan efforts to reduce spending.00:06:00 - Software Companies and AIImpact of AI and large language models on software companies like ServiceNow, Snowflake, and Oracle.Challenges in justifying increased IT budgets for AI integration.00:11:31 - NVIDIA's Market PositionAnalysis of NVIDIA's growth and its dominance in the GPU market.Discussion on the potential for GPUs to replace CPUs and the implications for software providers.00:18:32 - Semiconductor IndustryExamination of the semiconductor industry's supply chain and the role of companies like ASML.Discussion on the challenges faced by Chinese fabs and the impact of government incentives.00:20:22 - NVIDIA's Financial PerformanceDetailed analysis of NVIDIA's revenue growth and free cash flow.Discussion on the sustainability of NVIDIA's market position and future growth prospects.00:23:44 - Data Center MarketAnalysis of the data center market and NVIDIA's role in it.Discussion on the potential for NVIDIA to increase its market share in data center CapEx.00:26:08 - Healthcare NewsBrief discussion on the FDA's draft guidance on regulation of platform technologies and its implications for the healthcare industry.00:28:14 - ConclusionThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes[00:00:00] Introduction[00:01:31] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandDiscussion: Analysis of the current oil price, risk premiums, and surplus capacity.Key Points:Risk premiums influenced by geopolitical tensions in Gaza, the Middle East, and Ukraine.Surplus capacity and its impact on future oil prices.[00:02:57] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/SupplyDiscussion: Examination of the natural gas market, including oversupply and production adjustments.Key Points:Dry gas production forecasts and curtailments.Impact of new pipelines from the Permian to the Gulf Coast.Volatility in the power and gas markets due to reliance on renewable energy sources.[00:04:14] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and ExpensesDiscussion: The US deficit, its impact on the dollar, and potential diversification of global central bank reserves.Key Points:Challenges in reducing the deficit to $1.5 trillion.Potential shift away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency.Federal Reserve's policy rate and its implications for the economy.[00:07:50] Energy Industry Consolidations: Conoco to Acquire Marathon OilDiscussion: The logic behind mergers in the oil industry.Key Points:Conoco's acquisition of Marathon Oil.The necessity for upstream companies to increase production or merge.[00:08:37] How to Build a Large Language ModelDiscussion: The process of building large language models (LLMs) and the importance of data sources.Key Points:Historical data sources like Encyclopedia Britannica and scientific journals.The role of modern data sources like Reddit, Twitter, and Wikipedia.Challenges in sourcing data for LLMs in a closed web environment.[00:13:43] How Big is Google's Advantage in Source Data?Discussion: Google's advantage in LLMs due to its extensive search database.Key Points:Google's infrastructure for crawling and indexing the internet.Comparison with other data sources like Twitter.[00:16:34] How LLMs are Challenging Mainstream MediaDiscussion: The impact of LLMs on traditional news media and paywalls.Key Points:Potential decline in revenue for newspapers due to AI-generated news.Legal challenges and the future of paywalls.[00:19:39] How is Pharmaceutical Research Approaching AI?Discussion: The use of AI in pharmaceutical research and data security.Key Points:Outsourcing data aggregation and software solutions.The role of cloud providers in securing healthcare data.[00:24:01] Apple's Choice Between OpenAI and GoogleDiscussion: Apple's potential partnerships with OpenAI and Google for AI integration.Key Points:The strategic importance of data sources.The implications of Apple's choice on its ecosystem and user experience.[00:26:39] If Apple is Slow to Add AI Features, Will Samsung/Android Capture More High-End Market Share?Discussion: The competition between Apple and Samsung in the high-end smartphone market.Key Points:User loyalty to the Apple ecosystem.The impact of AI capabilities.[00:30:10] Nvidia's Epic Cashflow RunDiscussion: Nvidia's financial performance and market dominance.Key Points:Nvidia's growth in revenue and free cash flow.The company's market value compared to other tech giants.The role of Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML in Nvidia's success.[00:33:28] ConclusionSummary: Wrap-up of the episode and a preview of the next discussion on Nvidia's latest earnings.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Welcome to the Telltales Podcast, where we delve into the pivotal role of cashflow in investing. Hosted by Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence, this episode covers a wide range of topics from global oil supply and demand to the latest in tech and healthcare. Below are the detailed summaries of each chapter discussed in this episode.[00:00:00] Introduction[00:01:13] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandMiddle East Update: Helicopter crash in Iran killing the president and foreign minister, potential impact on elections.Gaza Conflict: Israel's military actions in Gaza and potential impacts on oil risk premiums.Ukraine War: Russian advances in Northeast Ukraine and its implications for oil prices.Risk Premium: Discussion on the risk premium in oil prices and factors that could influence it.[00:04:00] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/SupplyNatural Gas Trends: Improvement in natural gas prices and future projections.LNG Demand: Stability in LNG demand and its impact on supply and demand balance.Futures Market: Explanation of contango and backwardation in the oil market.[00:07:43] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and ExpensesDeficit Update: Challenges in calculating the deficit due to loan forgiveness.Spending Trends: Analysis of US government spending from 2019 to 2023, including COVID-19 impacts.Future Projections: Potential spending cuts and their implications for future budgets.[00:09:43] Nvidia Earnings Day & Cashflow RisksNvidia's Growth: Discussion on Nvidia's market position and future growth prospects.Tech Spending: Analysis of tech companies' CapEx budgets and their impact on Nvidia.AI Data Centers: Sovereign data centers and their influence on Nvidia's business.[00:11:53] Can the West Prevent China from Running TSMC?Taiwan Semiconductor: Potential scenarios if China takes control of TSMC.ASML's Role: Discussion on the feasibility of disabling TSMC's equipment remotely.[00:13:02] Are AMD and Intel Left Behind?Market Risks: Challenges faced by AMD and Intel in the evolving tech landscape.Microsoft's Shift: Impact of Microsoft's move to ARM processors on AMD and Intel.[00:17:05] Meta Q1 Earnings Reaction & Outlook[00:19:24] Oracle Cerner and Oracle Cloud PlatformOracle's Strategy: Evaluation of Oracle's acquisition of Cerner and its position in the cloud market.Cloud Competition: Comparison with other cloud providers like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud.[00:26:46] Healthcare Updates: Google Alphafold 3, VRTX & Drug DevelopmentAlphaFold 3: Overview of Google's AlphaFold 3 and its implications for drug development.Future of Medicine: Potential for AI to accelerate preclinical research and reduce costs.[00:29:13] Conclusion**Disclaimer:** The views expressed on this podcast are the hosts' alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any security. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.Thank you for tuning in to the Telltales Podcast. Don't forget to subscribe and join our email list for more insights on cashflow and investing. Stay tuned for our next episode!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode of the Telltales Podcast, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence, aka Mr. Cashflow, delve into the crucial role of cashflow in investing, particularly focusing on the oil supply and demand dynamics, the energy sector, and the implications of geopolitical events on market risk. They also discuss U.S. government finances, investment strategies, and the tech landscape, including the competitive developments between OpenAI and Google, Apple's potential moves in AI, and the evolving digital payment ecosystem. Corporate finance strategies, market predictions, and the increasing influence of high-speed internet options like Starlink are also covered. The conversation wraps up with speculation on the future of mobile communication and the role of screens, signaling a shift towards more audio-based and AI-enhanced interfaces. This comprehensive discussion provides insights into current economic indicators, investment considerations, technological advancements, and the ongoing transformations in the business landscape.00:59 Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND04:11 Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY05:07 Exhibit A: US GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSES05:38 Page 1: Open AI & Google competing for Apple business?11:46 Is Meta a contender for the Apple deal?13:22 Page 5: Comcast to offer streaming bundle14:58 Page 4: Comcast v. Disney Streaming Bundles15:54 Page 3: Intel Debt Stacking Up17:25 Page 3: TSMC April Sales Report19:01 Page 7: MA / V / PYPL22:39 Page 16: MCD / SBUX / CMG / CELH / HLT27:00 Page 1: Elon Musk & Tesla News32:44 Page 1: Are screens going the way of the dodo?This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Welcome to the "Telltales Podcast," where we delve into the intricacies of cashflow and its critical role in driving the economy and investment performance. Join hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and our co-host Hunt Lawrence, as we explore various facets of financial insights and market dynamics. Below, find detailed summaries of the main topics discussed in each chapter of this episode:---[00:00:00] Introduction[00:00:51] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandAnalysis of the current oil market with a focus on surplus capacity and demand growth.Impact of geopolitical risks on oil prices, including situations in Gaza, Ukraine, and the Middle East.Recommendations for oil investors based on the expected changes in the risk premium.[00:02:59] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/SupplyExamination of the U.S. gas market, highlighting the discrepancies between supply and demand.Discussion on the price necessary to overcome the decline curve and add significant supply.Advice for gas company investors in light of current market conditions.[00:05:21] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and ExpensesPredictions on U.S. tax changes depending on the upcoming presidential election outcomes.Strategies for investors to cope with potential tax increases by investing in long-term holdings.[00:07:57] The Impact of Political Events on InvestmentsReflections on the presidential election's influence on market stability and investment strategies.Commentary on how U.S. governance might be perceived post-election.[00:08:52] Tesla and Artificial IntelligenceDiscussion on Tesla's role in advancing artificial intelligence and its implications for investors.Analysis of Tesla's data utilization from vehicle operations and its potential market impact.[00:16:36] Free Cash Flow Analysis Across Big Tech CompaniesComparative analysis of free cash flow among leading tech giants like Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla.Future projections for Tesla's financial growth and its comparison with other major companies.[00:22:34] Apple’s AI ChallengeThe hosts discuss whether or not Apple is behind on AI[00:28:25] Closing Remarks---Thank you for tuning into the "Telltale Podcast." For more insights and detailed analyses, subscribe to our channel and join our email list at telltales.usThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESWelcome to another episode of Telltales. Join our hosts, Hunt Lawrence, Jason Wallace, and Mike Nicoletti, as they discuss cashflow and its pivotal role in investing. Here’s a breakdown of what we covered in this episode:[00:00:34] Meet Mike & Jason in Omaha at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual MeetingDiscussion on the upcoming Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha.Networking opportunities at the event.[00:01:40] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMANDAnalysis of the global oil supply with a focus on surplus capacity held off by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.Impact of reduced Russian oil production due to ongoing conflicts.Implications on oil prices if withheld supplies were released.[00:02:24] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLYExamination of U.S. natural gas supply and demand.Discussion on production curtailment by major producers in the Marcellus Shale.Insights into the natural gas market dynamics and pricing.[00:03:49] Exhibit A: US GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSESOverview of U.S. government revenues and expenses.Discussion on the recent foreign aid package and its impact on the federal budget.Concerns about the lack of financial offsets in government spending.[00:04:34] Exhibit A: TaxesDebate on the feasibility and constitutionality of a proposed wealth tax.Potential implications of tax changes on investment and economic growth.[00:05:51] Exhibit A: Federal Funds Rate Held SteadyCommentary on the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate.Discussion on real interest rates and their impact on the economy and investments.[00:11:07] Page 1: AAPL / AMZN / GOOG / MSFT / TSLAEarnings updates and significant news from major tech companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla.Strategic movements within these companies and their market implications.[00:11:20] Page 1: TSLA 0.00%↑ - Tesla's China StrategyDiscussion on Tesla's data management strategy in China.Comparison with TikTok's data handling and implications for user privacy and corporate strategy.[00:13:31] Page 1: TSLA 0.00%↑ , AAPL 0.00%↑ - Consumer Preferences in ChinaAnalysis of consumer behavior in China, particularly regarding domestic vs. foreign brands.Impact on companies like Tesla and Apple.[00:14:49] Page 1: TSLA 0.00%↑ Reduces Supercharger Station Growth and Cuts StaffTesla's strategic decision to reduce growth in supercharger stations.Discussion on the economic and strategic factors leading to this decision.[00:20:23] Page 1: Is Google falling behind OpenAI?Exploration of Google's position in AI development compared to OpenAI.Discussion on strategic decisions in technology and AI by major corporations.[00:21:54] Page 1: GOOG 0.00%↑ - Will Android Steal Marketshare from Apple?Predictions and analysis on the potential market shifts between Android and Apple devices.Impact of AI features on consumer preferences and market dynamics.[00:24:09] Page 1: AAPL 0.00%↑ - When is WWDC?Announcement of the upcoming Apple Worldwide Developers Conference and expectations.[00:24:26] Page 1: AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ Cloud Growth on backs of NVDA 0.00%↑ Discussion on the growth of cloud services at Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, facilitated by NVIDIA technology.Insights into the financial and strategic impacts of these developments.[00:27:22] Page 3: NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASMLDetailed analysis of NVIDIA's financial performance and market position.Comparison with other major tech firms like AMD, Intel, TSMC, and ASML.[00:31:19] Page 15: PFE 0.00%↑ turning things around?Examination of Pfizer's recent financial performance and strategic directions.Discussion on the broader pharmaceutical industry and market trends.Thank you for tuning into "Telltales"! Don’t forget to subscribe!This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES00:01:05 Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND: Discussion on recent geopolitical events affecting oil prices and their impact on global oil supply and demand.00:04:03 Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY: Analysis of the U.S. natural gas market, including production rates and future demand projections.00:07:16 Exhibit A: US GOV’T REVENUES AND EXPENSES: Discussion on U.S. government spending, revenue trends, and fiscal policies.00:08:33 Page 1: TSLA - Earnings Review & FSD 12: Overview of Tesla's earnings, Full Self-Driving technology, and market implications.00:15:49 Page 1: TSLA - Tesla Full Self Driving Revenue Model: Discussion on Tesla's Full Self-Driving revenue model and pricing strategies.00:17:12 Page 1: TSLA - Tesla Datacenter: Insights into Tesla's data center strategy and its potential impacts on business efficiency.00:18:43 Page 1: Will Tesla license FSD to other auto manufacturers?: Discussion on the potential for Tesla to license its Full Self-Driving technology to other manufacturers.00:20:45 Page 1: Tesla FSD Gross Margin: Analysis of the financial implications of Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology on its business model.00:22:50 Page 15: Vertex's Promising Pipeline ($VRTX): Discussion on Vertex Pharmaceutical's pipeline and strategic initiatives.00:26:52 TSLA 0.00%↑ vs VRTX 0.00%↑ - who could double first?: Comparative analysis of Tesla and Vertex Pharmaceutical's market potential and growth prospects.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

ShownotesThis episode of Telltales covers several key topics related to investing, energy markets, and the pharmaceutical industry. Here's a summary of the main discussions with timestamps for the chapters:[00:00:54] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMANDThe hosts discuss the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and how the withdrawal of Israeli troops could impact oil prices. Hunt mentions that with Russian oil production down by at least 1 million barrels per day due to the Ukraine conflict, and OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE holding back supply, the oil market remains vulnerable to supply shocks, keeping prices elevated in the mid-$80s range. [00:03:45] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLYThe conversation shifts to the natural gas market, where prices have been holding up well. Hunt highlights the potential for increased power demand from data centers, especially those with GPUs, which could drive natural gas consumption higher, supporting prices. He also notes the supply discipline from major producers like EQT, which has curtailed production to balance the market. [00:05:38] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSESThe hosts analyze the macroeconomic environment, discussing the impact of higher inflation, continued government deficit spending, and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Hunt raises concerns about the potential effect of higher interest rates on stock market valuations, as was observed in 2022 when valuations of high-growth companies declined significantly. [1][00:08:15] Page 1: Higher For Longer impact on TeslaThe discussion turns to Tesla, with the hosts debating the company's valuation in the context of higher interest rates. [00:16:27] Page 13: JPM/MS/GSHunt analyzes the financial performance and valuations of major banks like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs. He highlights their ability to generate consistent free cash flow, buy back shares, and pay dividends, which has resulted in attractive returns for long term holders of the stocks.[00:22:44] Page 15: PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTXThe hosts discuss the challenges faced by large pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer in replacing revenue from expiring patents and developing new blockbuster drugs. They also compare the prospects of Moderna and BioNTech, the companies behind the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, and their efforts to develop personalized cancer vaccines and other therapies. Jason and Mike share their perspectives on which company might be better positioned for success in this area. This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

00:00:39 Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND 00:03:08 Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY 00:05:25 Exhibit A: US GOVT REVENUES AND EXPENSES 00:06:43 China Risk Discussion 00:07:33 Page 20: UBER / DASH / ABNB / FIVE / ETSY 00:08:24 Page 19: UNH / CVS / REGN / BIIB / LLY 00:09:12 Page 18: FCX / ALB / CF / NEE 00:10:26 Page 17: FDX / UPS / NKE / COST 00:11:23 Page 16: MCD / SBUX / CMG / CELH / HLT 00:12:36 Page 15: PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTX 00:13:30 Page 14: CAT / DE / GNRC / TDG / FAST 00:15:07 Page 13: JPM / MS / GS 00:15:41 Page 12: AR / EQT / CHK / AM 00:16:13 Page 11: EOG / MGY / PR / FANG 00:16:38 Page 10: KMI / EPD / ET / WES 00:16:44 Page 9: XOM / CVX / COP / OXY / LNG 00:17:37 Page 8: WMT / TGT / LOW / HD / KMX 00:18:28 Page 7: MA / V / PYPL 00:18:51 Page 6: T / VZ / TMUS 00:19:16 Page 5: CHTR / CMCSA 00:19:23 Page 4: NFLX / DIS / META 00:20:49 Page 3: NVDA / AMD / INTC / TSMC / ASML 00:24:40 Page 2: MSFT / CRM / SNOW / ORCL 00:24:59 Page 1: AAPL / AMZN / GOOG / MSFT / TSLA 00:29:33 Page 1: Discussion on whether Tesla could trade down to $100/share valuation. $UBER $DASH $ABNB $FIVE $ETSY $UNH $CVS $REGN $BIIB $LLY $FCX $ALB $CF $NEE $FDX $UPS $NKE $COST $MCD $SBUX $CMG $CELH $HLT $PFE $MRNA $LNTH $BNTX $VRTX $CAT $DE $GNRC $TDG $FAST $JPM $MS $GS $AR $EQT $CHK $AM $EOG $MGY $PR $FANG $KMI $EPD $ET $WES $XOM $CVX $COP $OXY $LNG $WMT $TGT $LOW $HD $KMX $MA $V $PYPL $T $VZ $TMUS $CHTR $CMCSA $NFLX $DIS $META $NVDA $AMD $INTC $TSMC $ASML $MSFT $CRM $SNOW $ORCL $AAPL $AMZN $GOOG $TSLAThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

The episode covers a range of topics around geopolitics, macroeconomics, antitrust regulation of big tech companies, the energy sector, and the healthcare industry. Significant time is spent analyzing the Microsoft antitrust case, potential partnership between Apple and Google on AI, China's push for domestic chip production, and a DoJ investigation into UnitedHealthcare.[00:00:38] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand- Ukraine drones damaging Russian refineries, reducing Russian oil production- Potential for Saudi Arabia to increase production by 3 million barrels per day- Threat from Houthis in Yemen to attack Saudi/UAE oil facilities[00:02:35] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply - Lower US gas production forecasts for 2024- Impact of new pipeline opening in August on Waha gas prices- Increasing power demand from LNG exports and data centers- Climate activists opposing fossil fuels and carbon capture[00:05:13] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses- House Republicans passing spending bills, curtailing spending- Hopes for reduced deficit of $1.4 trillion in 2024/2025[00:06:18] Views on Data Center Power Demand- Potential for higher than forecast power demand from data centers- Debate on whether power should come from natural gas or nuclear[00:09:57] Page 1: Microsoft's DoJ Antitrust Settlement and Lost Decade- Discussing Microsoft's 2001 antitrust settlement with DoJ[1]- Oversight into Microsoft's software development slowed innovation- Impact on company's stock performance from 2001-2011[00:16:28] If Apple partners with Google on AI- Apple's alternatives if they want to use a large language model- Preference for running AI models locally vs in the cloud[00:20:38] Impact of China's move away from Intel/AMD CPUs- Implications for chip companies as China favors domestic sources[00:22:35] Is the EU better at policing big tech?- Comparing EU's antitrust approach vs US DoJ/FTC for big tech[00:26:35] Page 19: UNH/CVS/REGN/BIIB/LLY - DoJ investigation into UnitedHealthcare's practices with Optum- UnitedHealthcare hack impacting healthcare providers- Comparing UnitedHealthcare's performance to CVS HealthThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Shownotes [00:00:00] Introduction [00:01:02] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Discussion of rising oil prices due to drone attacks on Russian refineries and potential threats from Houthi rebels in Yemen Analysis of global oil supply numbers for 2023, highlighting oversupply situation if Saudi Arabia increases production Potential for downside in oil prices if Saudi Arabia raises output to 11 million barrels per day [00:03:29] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply Analysis of US natural gas production running at 102-104 bcf/d currently vs forecast of 104 bcf/d for 2024 Factors like shut-ins impacting production Increasing power demand for natural gas, driven by intermittent wind/solar sources Forecast showing tight supply/demand balance in 2025 [00:06:19] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses Discussion of proposed Biden administration budget with higher spending Analysis of deficit trends, with hopes of stabilizing around $1.4 trillion and gradual reduction Factors like curtailed spending, defense budget, and interest payments impacting deficit [00:10:07] Apple + Google AI Deal? Speculation on Apple using Google's Gemini language model for Siri assistant Potential licensing deal between Apple and Google for Gemini Monetization challenges for AI models like Gemini [00:13:44] Microsoft Acquihires Inflection AI Analysis of Microsoft's acquisition of Inflection AI, founded by former DeepMind employee Potential reasons like access to talent, hardware, and reducing reliance on OpenAI [00:16:40] Google Gemini's Impressive Context Window Discussion of Gemini's ability to process up to 1 million tokens (words) for context Advantages of larger context windows for summarization tasks [00:19:19] Nvidia's New AI Hardware Announcements Details on Nvidia's new GPU chips with 2.5x faster performance and optimizations for large language models Importance of Nvidia's NVLink networking technology for connecting multiple GPUs [00:21:57] Lantheus Update Brief update on Lantheus, a radiopharmaceutical company Acquisition of another radiopharmaceutical company in the industry Positive outlook on Lantheus' prostate cancer diagnostic Pylerify and future therapeutics [00:25:44] Vertex Update Update on Vertex Pharmaceuticals and their non-opioid pain medication pipeline Increasing state laws requiring opioid consultation before prescribing Vertex's strong cash flows from cystic fibrosis treatments [00:27:04] Biontech Earnings Discussion of BioNTech's disappointing COVID-19 vaccine sales Analysis of BioNTech's pipeline, including mRNA cancer vaccines and acquired antibody treatments Concerns about BioNTech's strategy for reinvesting cash flowsThis podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

00:00 Introduction This week’s episode draws fascinating parallels between investing in the energy and biotech sectors. 00:02:25 Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND If you look at supply of oil, there's clearly 3-4 million barrels a day too much supply capacity, mostly with Saudi Arabia, to meet demand. The question is, what price of oil would cause supply to come down so that it was within demand? The answer is quite a lot lower. If Saudi Arabia decided to produce the additional 3 million barrels, oil prices could drop at least 20% to below $60 per barrel. 00:05:31 Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Moving to exhibit B on gas pricing, production has flattened out in the 102-103 range. The storage change, the difference between demand and supply, was impossibly high at 23. The total surplus was 3 billion a day over 365 days, which is a trillion a year. The total amount of gas storage is only 3.8 trillion. Later this year, there will likely be forced well shut-ins, especially in the Marcellus region. You could see some impossibly low gas prices, which will make headlines, with gas prices received in the Marcellus potentially under $1. 00:07:14 Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES The Biden administration has come out with their budget, which is a political document. We cannot run a $1.5 trillion deficit indefinitely. The interest bill is now more than what we spend for defense, which is not sustainable. However, this is an election year, and the Biden administration has added $500 billion more spending than last year. Congress will never go along with it all, but it shows how irresponsible elected politicians can be when facing an election. 00:08:16 Energy Company Analysis Given the potential for a downdraft in oil prices and the storage build-up leading to potential involuntary shut-ins or very low prices, the hosts quickly cover the energy companies. The gas companies on page 12 (Antero, EQT, Chesapeake) are all behaving well, able to keep production flat or inclined a bit while spending about half their EBITDA. The oil companies on page 11 (EOG, Magnolia, Permian, Diamond Back) are doing fine at $75 oil, showing the same pattern of keeping production flat or inclined while spending about half their EBITDA on CapEx. The midstream companies on page 10 (Kinder Morgan, Enterprise, Energy Transfer, Western Midstream) won't be too affected by commodity price swings, as they have pretty predictable cash flows, but their debt levels are fairly high. The integrated companies on page 9 (Exxon, Chevron, Conoco, Occidental, Cheniere) are really good companies that can hold production flat and generate significant free cash flow, trading around 10x free cash flow. 00:10:49 Page 15: PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTX Shifting to healthcare, the hosts' two favorite names are Lantheus and Vertex Pharmaceutical. BioNTech is a sentimental favorite due to the virtuous Turkish couple that founded it. Both BioNTech and Moderna piled up a lot of cash from their COVID vaccines, but they don't have ongoing cash flows to fund their R&D like Vertex and Lantheus do. The hosts have more confidence in companies financing research out of free cash flow. 00:12:22 Comparing Biotech and Energy Investing There are surprising similarities between biotech and energy investing. A blockbuster drug platform is akin to having a large oil or gas reserve that can be tapped for years. But getting there requires early success and skillful capital allocation, just like in energy. Vertex has done an amazing job out-innovating itself in treating cystic fibrosis, similar to an energy company replacing reserves. Their "drug platform" treating this disease is a huge reserve they can tap for years to come. 00:18:16 Vertex's Advantages Over Moderna and BioNTech While Moderna and BioNTech had tremendous COVID-related cash flows, that has largely dried up, whereas Vertex is able to fund R&D from ongoing free cash flow. Vertex spends $3.1B on R&D compared to Moderna's $4B, but Moderna will likely burn through cash quickly unless they have a new hit drug soon. BioNTech is a bit more cash-efficient with partnerships on pipeline products. 00:27:28 Sponsor Break: Oakcliff Sailing 00:28:31 Challenges of In Vivo vs Ex Vivo Gene Editing The hosts discuss the challenges and timelines of in vivo gene editing (directly in the body) vs ex vivo (outside the body). With in vivo, you can't test for off-target edits that could potentially cause cancers or other side effects. So the clinical trials will need to be very long to observe cancer rates over time. Most companies working on this are still in early stage trials. So in vivo gene editing treatments have a low probability of reaching the market in the next 3-5 years due to the complicated trial design and potential for concerning side effects. Ex vivo approaches are further along.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and