QAV America (free feed)

Episode 46 of QAV America opens on Tony Kynaston’s birthday — complete with a QAV cap gift — before Cameron and Tony dig into a week of market chaos, with their main US portfolio down 12% over 30 days but still up an extraordinary 83% since inception in September 2023 versus the S&P’s 42%. The guys tackle the big macro picture, riffing on a Fortune article declaring US government insolvency (liabilities nearly 8x assets), the mysterious $500 million oil futures trade placed 15 minutes before Trump’s Iran announcement, and the aluminum supply chain crisis triggered by Iranian strikes on Middle East smelters. The episode’s centrepiece is Cameron’s Pulled Pork deep dive on Pitney Bowes (PBI) — the century-old postage meter pioneer turned digital shipping play — covering its disastrous Global eCommerce venture, the activist takeover by deep value investor Kurt Wolf of Hestia Capital, and why the stock’s QAV score of 0.16 and solid cash generation make it a compelling cigar-butt turnaround play.   This week’s full episode is for QAV Club members only. The free episode is available below. Also check out our podcast archives link and our pages on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or watch clips on TikTok. Or visit our homepage to learn more about QAV and how it works as a value investing system that you can learn and apply to beat the market. Free Podcast Archives Transcription QAV AMERICAN 46 Club [00:00:00] [00:00:00] Cameron Reilly: Welcome back to QAV America, episode 46. Tony Eson. How are you? [00:00:08] TK: Very good. You wouldn’t know it’s QAV with my QAV shirt on and QAV cap on. [00:00:13] Cameron Reilly: For people that aren’t watching the video feed. Yeah, it’s Tony’s birthday, so I gave him a QAV cap ’cause I ran out of ideas and time. Uh, well, you know, it’s some, it’s something you should be proud of. Your contribution to the world of investing. You’re a given, not a taker. That’s what they said about you in prison anyway. [00:00:39] Cameron Reilly: Um, that’s what you had to establish yourself. Very early on in Bogger Road, very famous prison in Brisbane where my grandfather actually went and learned to play chess, which was a great thing. It’s become a family tradition now. [00:00:54] TK: chess or he was there and he learned how to play chess. [00:00:56] Cameron Reilly: I, that’s the way I sell it. Yeah. He, he thought, where’s the best place I can [00:01:00] learn chess for free? [00:01:00] Cameron Reilly: I’ll go do, go do two years in Bogger Road. [00:01:05] TK: Oh, okay. We’re [00:01:08] Cameron Reilly: Tony. [00:01:09] TK: before too. [00:01:09] Cameron Reilly: Yeah, yeah, yeah. I was gonna say it’s a great, and then he started a great family tradition. What gonna prison? No playing chess. Yeah. Well, so far, yeah. Yeah. Breaking and entering. [00:01:21] TK: Oh, was it? I was gonna say, was it annoying people [00:01:24] Cameron Reilly: Uh, [00:01:25] TK: the public? [00:01:26] Cameron Reilly: you can’t go to prison for that yet, Tony. Um. It’s been a crazy week on the, well, just in the world, um, in the, uh, stock market. Of course, it’s been a crazy week. I think as, uh, we’re recording this, which is the 31st of March, Australian time. The Dow Jones over the last week is down the s and p 500. Over the last week is very much down our portfolios in the us.[00:02:00] [00:02:00] Cameron Reilly: I can’t get this to gimme a week, but in the last month, our US main US portfolio, the one we’ve been running for a few years is down 12% in the last 30 days versus the s and p down 8%. But for all time, and this goes back to September, 2023, our portfolio is up 83% versus the s and p up 42%. So we’re basically doing double market over the whatever, two and a half years. [00:02:34] Cameron Reilly: Is that two and a half years? Seven, five, yes. Two and a half years. Which is not too shabby. Um, happy with that. The light portfolio that I’ve started late last year, 22nd and December for the last 30 days is actually up 4% in the last 30 days when everything else is crashing. Yeah. The s and p is down 8%. [00:02:58] Cameron Reilly: We’re up [00:03:00] 4%. [00:03:00] TK: Didn’t, uh, happen to trade some oil futures 15 minutes before a major announcement. Do it. [00:03:04] Cameron Reilly: No, that was not me. Uh, I did buy some oil stocks in this portfolio, though. Uh, so yeah, that’s probably had a lot to do with it all times since, uh, 22nd of December we’re only up 2% versus the s and p down 8%. So, uh, we’re still outperforming, um, some of the big wins. Remember last week we talked about Eastman Kodak. [00:03:26] TK: Yeah. [00:03:27] Cameron Reilly: when I checked it was up 21%. Since I added it the previous Monday, it’s come, it came back a bit last night. Now it’s up 12

In Episode 45 of QAV America, recorded on March 24, 2026, Cameron Reilly and Tony Kynaston open with a geopolitical check-in on the ongoing US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices and market volatility, before diving into portfolio performance updates showing the QAV dummy portfolio up 92% all-time versus the S&P 500’s 48% since September 2023. The star segment is Cameron’s deep-dive “Pulled Pork” on Eastman Kodak (KODK) — a fascinating turnaround story covering the company’s reinvention from film giant to chemical manufacturer, pharmaceutical ingredient producer, and unlikely streetwear licensor in South Korea, complete with a Trump-era insider trading scandal and a billion-dollar pension reversion windfall. The guys also briefly flag Geo Park (GPRK) as up 9% since last week’s deep dive, and discuss how oil stocks like Cord Energy, Eco Petrol, and Murphy Oil have been propping up the Light Portfolio during the market downturn.   This week’s full episode is for QAV Club members only. The free episode is available below. Also check out our podcast archives link and our pages on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or watch clips on TikTok. Or visit our homepage to learn more about QAV and how it works as a value investing system that you can learn and apply to beat the market. Free Podcast Archives Transcription QAV AMERICA 45 Club Cameron Reilly: [00:00:00] Welcome to QAV America, Tony, episode 45, recording this on the 24th of March, 2026. The Run, not a War, is in its fourth week. Tony Kynaston: Mm-hmm. Cameron Reilly: My, my Iranian friend from Kung fu, uh, before this all started, we knew it was coming. I said, what, how long do you think it will hap it’ll take when, when it starts. He goes two days. Be over in two days. Regime will collapse. IRGC will collapse. Like two days. Yeah, two days. And we got to about day three, I said, how he goes, two weeks, it’ll be over in two weeks. By the end of the two weeks. I said, how long? He goes, four weeks. Four weeks. It’ll all be, it’ll all be done. So I said to him the other day, if we get into week five, you owe me a thousand bucks. He goes, yeah, yeah. Four weeks. It’ll all be done. It’ll all be over. I said, I don’t know, man. I don’t know. Tony Kynaston: we’ve just passed the 48 hour deadline before the, uh, Cameron Reilly: Yeah, yeah. Tony Kynaston: be eliminated from Iran, [00:01:00] and Cameron Reilly: Mm Tony Kynaston: KO event, hasn’t it? Cameron Reilly: mm Well, as I said to you in the last show, I think he’s just buying time to get troops in position so they can land on island, do whatever else they’re gonna do. At the same time, probably massive parallel. Bombing campaign of the mainland while they try and get troops on Har Island, but, um, or wipe out Har Island. I don’t know what his idea is. Who knows? Tony Kynaston: Yeah. I am not sure if Har Islands a destination. It could be, but it’s, it’s also possible they’re gonna go after the drone, the drone sites or drone manufacturers with boots on the ground. So who knows? And look, you know, it’s, um. A lot of people are suffering through this, so Cameron Reilly: Hmm. Tony Kynaston: gotta shout out to anybody out there who is where, um, I’m thinking of you anyway, hopefully you get Cameron Reilly: Well my Iranian friends are all for it. You know, they, they think it’s the, it’s fantastic what’s going on. ’cause they wanted to see the end of the [00:02:00] regime and they figured this is the only way it would happen is through some sort of foreign intervention. But I’m always like, y you know, it’s never worked. Foreign re regime change never works out well. And if. It was gonna work out well. You don’t want Netanyahu and Trump being the guys that are orchestrating, it’s like the worst possible scenario, uh, these two clowns, uh, trying to run it. But anyway, here’s what it is. Tony Kynaston: Yeah. Well, and, and also too, the Wall Street Journal was reporting today that uh, a lot of the dissidents who’d been rounded up and put in prison who would lead regime change were almost bombed, um, recently. So that’s not a good way to get regime change. It’s to bomb all the people who were in mon bla who could do it. Cameron Reilly: Yeah, and guys like the, uh, the foreign minister Lani, um, who was, they thought was [00:03:00] gonna be the reasonable, moderate, you know, relatively moderate guy. They killed him. So that’s not gonna happen. Anyway, back to investing. So it’s obviously been another turbulent week in the markets. The oil price has gone through the roof, came back a little bit yesterday. Where? Or last night? Our time when Trump said that he’d decided the 48 hour timeline. Wasn’t that Mabb hard of a timeline after all, but then when I checked the

In Episode 44 of QAV America, Cameron and Tony open with a geopolitical tour of the Strait of Hormuz crisis — still very much closed — unpacking what a prolonged shutdown could mean for global oil supply, economies, and living standards, including Australia's precarious one-month oil reserve. From there, Cameron pivots to his deep dive on Geo Park Limited (GPRK), a Latin American oil and gas explorer and producer with operations in Colombia, Argentina, and Brazil — and one of the most fascinating boardroom sagas in recent oil-patch history. Cameron walks through the company's founding by two American oil veterans, James Park and Gerald O'Shaughnessy (who turns out to be a cousin of value investing legend James O'Shaughnessy of What Works on Wall Street), their bitter governance war in 2021, the failed Parex Resources takeover bid, and the dramatic "white knight" entry of Colombian billionaire Jaime Gilinski, who injected $107 million for a 20% stake just days before the episode. Tony and Cameron then analyse the QAV checklist numbers, discuss why the light portfolio is outperforming the S&P even in a down market, and review the current US portfolio performance. After hours covers Nassim Taleb's book The Bed of Procrustes, Mel Brooks' documentary The 99-Year-Old Man (featuring David Lynch's last filmed interview), and Cameron's soggy-but-memorable school camping trip with his son Fox. This week's full episode is for QAV Club members only. The free episode is available above. Also check out our podcast archives link and our pages on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or watch clips on TikTok. Or visit our homepage to learn more about QAV and how it works as a value investing system that you can learn and apply to beat the market. In Episode 44 of QAV America, Cameron and Tony open with a geopolitical tour of the Strait of Hormuz crisis — still very much closed — unpacking what a prolonged shutdown could mean for global oil supply, economies, and living standards, including Australia’s precarious one-month oil reserve. From there, Cameron pivots to his deep dive on Geo Park Limited (GPRK), a Latin American oil and gas explorer and producer with operations in Colombia, Argentina, and Brazil — and one of the most fascinating boardroom sagas in recent oil-patch history. Cameron walks through the company’s founding by two American oil veterans, James Park and Gerald O’Shaughnessy (who turns out to be a cousin of value investing legend James O’Shaughnessy of What Works on Wall Street), their bitter governance war in 2021, the failed Parex Resources takeover bid, and the dramatic “white knight” entry of Colombian billionaire Jaime Gilinski, who injected $107 million for a 20% stake just days before the episode. Tony and Cameron then analyse the QAV checklist numbers, discuss why the light portfolio is outperforming the S&P even in a down market, and review the current US portfolio performance. After hours covers Nassim Taleb’s book The Bed of Procrustes, Mel Brooks’ documentary The 99-Year-Old Man (featuring David Lynch’s last filmed interview), and Cameron’s soggy-but-memorable school camping trip with his son Fox. Episode Timestamps 00:00 — Welcome & Strait of Hormuz update: global oil supply, Iran, and geopolitical risk 05:00 — Market volatility is our friend; Cameron sells TUSK from the US portfolio 06:30 — Deep Dive: GPRK (Geo Park Limited) — Latin American oil explorer & producer; company overview 42:00 — After Hours Transcription QAV AMERICA 44 Cameron Reilly: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, episode 44. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Tony, any day now it’s gonna all come good. TK: What do you think is gonna happen? It’ll come good. Cameron Reilly: Well, we were talking about this on the last show, so you know, I’m reading lots of different analysis. No one really knows, obviously what’s gonna happen here. There are theories that, um, it could be shut down for a long time. There are theories that Trump and Israel are gonna bomb Iran into oblivion, and the regime will give in or collapse. The regime seems to think it’s not gonna do that. I read a report that said they can produce 10,000 drones a month in Iran, but that obviously depends on if there’s anything left of Iran for them to produce drones in. But, uh, we did also talk about the impact to the world of not having oil. Australia’s got maybe a month of oil supply [00:01:00] and the impact on global fertilizer trade, about 30% of which also goes through the Strait of Commerce. What that’s gonna mean for. Just economies worldwide standard of living worldwide. It really does seem that Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu jumped into this thinking it was gonna be, uh, uh, less of a global catastrophe than it could possibly be. Uh, we’ll see how it plays out, but it’s not looking good right now. TK: No, I mean our minds

In this episode of QAV America, recorded on March 12, 2026, Cameron and Tony navigate a market defined by "Trump Chaos," exploring how a rules-based system provides a psychological anchor during periods of high volatility. The duo discusses the fallout from trade tensions with Spain and the impact of attacks on Qatari LNG infrastructure on global energy prices. The "Pulled Pork" deep dive features **Murphy Oil (MUR)**, a 120-year-old company undergoing a radical transformation from a sprawling integrated petroleum giant into a streamlined, high-margin exploration and production play. Despite a "complexity discount" from the market, the hosts analyze Murphy’s aggressive shareholder return policy—dubbed "Viagra for Value Investors"—and its pivot toward deep-water assets in the "Gulf of Trump" and Vietnam. This week's full episode is for QAV Club members only. The free episode is available above. Also check out our podcast archives link and our pages on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or watch clips on TikTok. Or visit our homepage to learn more about QAV and how it works as a value investing system that you can learn and apply to beat the market. In this episode of QAV America, recorded on March 12, 2026, Cameron and Tony navigate a market defined by “Trump Chaos,” exploring how a rules-based system provides a psychological anchor during periods of high volatility. The duo discusses the fallout from trade tensions with Spain and the impact of attacks on Qatari LNG infrastructure on global energy prices. The “Pulled Pork” deep dive features Murphy Oil (MUR), a 120-year-old company undergoing a radical transformation from a sprawling integrated petroleum giant into a streamlined, high-margin exploration and production play. Despite a “complexity discount” from the market, the hosts analyze Murphy’s aggressive shareholder return policy—dubbed “Viagra for Value Investors”—and its pivot toward deep-water assets in the “Gulf of Trump” and Vietnam. Episode Timestamps [00:00:00] – Welcome to Episode 43: Market chaos and the Epstein files. [00:01:03] – Portfolio Performance: QAV US up 94% since Sept 2023; tracking Willis Lease Finance (WLFC) and E W Scripps (SSP). [00:03:51] – Chord Energy (CHRD) and the surge in natural gas. [00:04:33] – The “ADR Risk”: Trump’s trade war with Spain and the impact on Spanish stocks. [00:05:41] – Geopolitical Noise: Trump, the Australian Prime Minister, and Iranian soccer. [00:06:23] – Energy Crisis: Attack on Qatar Energy LNG units and the Strait of Hormuz closure. [00:08:50] – The QAV Framework: Why a statistical system beats “predicting” the Middle East. [00:15:10] – Deep Dive (Pulled Pork): Murphy Oil (MUR) – From timber and farming to pure-play E&P. [00:44:45] – After Hours: Murphy’s Law origins, Michael Caine’s Deadly Game, and Scorsese’s Mean Streets. [00:53:45] – The Tupac Documentary: Civil rights, the Black Panthers, and Afeni Shakur. [00:57:45] – Fitness Update: Gemini declares Cameron an “Elite Athlete”. Transcription Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome to QAV America, Tony, episode 43, timestamp. Tuesday, 10th of March, 2026, Trump has tar again. Tony. It looks, has Tony: he? Cameron: Well, today maybe. Tony: I thought it was mission accomplished. Cameron: Wow. Tony: No one’s looking at the Epstein files. Mission Cameron: accomplished. What was the, what was the mission again? Tony: Distraction. Cameron: Distraction. Yeah. Tony: Not distraction. Distraction Cameron: or arbitrage. Uh, oil price goes up. Oil price comes back down. Somebody’s making money in there somewhere. Mm-hmm. It’s crazy time in the markets, but, uh, as we always say, doesn’t really, well, I mean, it matters, but, uh, from a QAV, from an investing perspective, the system just keeps on chugging along. Mm-hmm. We’re able to ignore the noise, ignore the [00:01:00] volatility, ignore the chaos. We just keep doing what we’re doing and we, if the market’s up, we stick to the system, the market’s down, we stick to the system. It works pretty, pretty well. I’m just looking at our portfolios. The QAV US portfolio that’s been running since September, 2023 is up 94% in that period of time versus the s and p 500, up 53%, but we’ve come down quite a bit in the last. Month. I think for the last 30 days, we’re down four and a half percent versus the s and p down 2.4. Last 12 months we’re up 12 point a half versus the s and p up. 17 point a half, 17.8. But, um, you know, it’s, we were, last six months, we’ve had a lot of growth. We’re up [00:02:00] 13% versus the s and p up four, but it’s, it’s sort of been a little bit chaotic. In the last, mm-hmm. Week or so, um, some of our stocks in the portfolio are doing very well, though Willis Lease Finance is up 276%. Is up 134% and Nova is up 132%. Sarcos Energy navigation

In this episode, recorded on March 3, 2026, Cameron and Tony navigate a “punch-drunk” week for the markets following the escalation of war in the Middle East. They discuss how the QAV system provides a stress-free mechanical roadmap—buy, sell, or hold—regardless of geopolitical chaos. The duo reviews the US portfolio’s impressive 106% gain since late 2023 and examines why shipping stocks like Euroseas (ESEA) and Danaos (DAC) are surprisingly resilient despite maritime blockades. The centerpiece is a “Pulled Pork” deep dive into Nabors Industries (NBR), tracing its lineage from the legendary Guggenheim family’s Chilean nitrate empire to its modern status as a debt-laden, asset-rich “zombie” drilling for the Saudis. Finally, they touch on the “MagaMyMan” PolyMarket scandal and the importance of letting a value portfolio “churn” through its duds to find the long-term winners. Episode Timestamps [00:00] Introduction: Recording on March 3, 2026; the reality of being a “novice” after six years. [00:50] The QAV System in Wartime: How rules-based investing reduces stress during the Middle East conflict. [02:45] The Black Belt Mentality: Using Kung Fu as a benchmark for investing mastery. [05:20] Portfolio Performance Update: US Portfolio up 106% vs S&P 500 up 55%. [06:15] Shipping Sector Resilience: Why Euroseas (ESEA) and StealthGas (GASS) are climbing despite the crisis. [08:00] Korean ADR Slump: Recent dips in Korea Electric Power (KEP) and Korea Telecom (KT). [08:45] The QAV Light Winners: Success with E.W. Scripps (SSP). [09:45] Exit: Volaris (VLRS): Selling the Mexican budget airline due to cartel violence and earnings misses. [12:40] New Addition: Danaos (DAC): Adding the Greek container ship giant to the Light Portfolio. [14:40] Deep Dive: Nabors Industries (NBR): The history of the 74-year-old drilling giant. [43:00] PolyMarket & “Maga My Man”: Discussing the prediction market scandal and insider trading rumors. [46:00] Closing Thoughts: Why value portfolios take time to “ramp up” and find their 15-20 winners. Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America. This is episode 42. We’re recording this on the 3rd of March. Australian time, 2026. If you are brand new, welcome. We are two Australians talking about value investing. Tony’s been a value investor for 30 odd years. We’ve been doing a show about value investing in Australia for six or seven years, and now we do one on the American market as well, which we’ve been doing for a bit over a year. How are you today, tk? Tony: Good punch drunk from all the movements in the markets over the weekend? Well, since the weekend. Cameron: Yeah. Well, obviously. Crazy week, uh, middle East War is full on now and it’s. It’s got impacts as of course, for, for investors, but for people that are new to QAV, what you should know is that we have a system, the QAV system that Tony’s developed [00:01:00] over his lifetime of investing that has a bunch of rules that tell us what to do, when to buy, what to buy, what to sell, when to sell. And it’s at times like these that, uh, I think it, it, having a system really makes it, um. Not, I would, I wouldn’t say easy, but less stressful. Uh, because I don’t have to try and predict where the market’s going or what the market’s doing, I don’t have to think very hard at all really about it. As we’ve said, through all of the cycles, we were just saying on the Australian show, since we’ve been doing the show, we had COVID, we had the boom that came. After COVID, we’ve had another crash that happened when interest rates started to go up all over the place and the Ukraine invasion happened in 2022. Then we’ve had another boom period coming out of that in the last eight, nine months, and through all of [00:02:00] those cycles, the up and down cycles, the QAV system just. It tells us what to do, buy, sell, hold, and that’s it. We don’t have to, we don’t have to worry about it. It just, uh, takes us through a step-by-step process of what to do, whether the market’s going up or the market’s going down, or the market’s going sideways. Uh, me as a relatively novice investor don’t need to worry about it. I just need to do what the rules tell me to do, which is a great relief. Tony: When do you stop being a novice investor? ’cause you’ve been doing this for six years now. Cameron: Well, I catch up to you. Tony: Is there a, is there like a bachelor degree and a master’s degree and then a PhD? You right? I Cameron: think so. I think 10. After 10 years I’ll 10 years Tony: a Cameron: novice. Yeah. Yeah. Tony: Because as say you’ve been through plenty of cycles, that’s usually the way that you test someone’s, um, experience in markets. Cameron:

In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony navigate the “completely bonkers” landscape of 2026, where a Supreme Court reversal on Trump’s previous tariffs and the looming shadow of AI bubbles have left investors guessing. The duo breaks down the hidden “gotchas” of American Depository Receipts (ADRs), specifically examining the tax hurdles and custody fees associated with South Korean plays like Shinhan Financial Group (SHG) and Korea Electric Power (KEP). The centerpiece of the episode is a “Pulled Pork” deep dive into Bread Financial (BFH)—a high-yielding, unloved credit card “stub” that has spent years amputating its legacy loyalty businesses to emerge as a pure-play lender. Despite the “Trump Slump” threat of capped interest rates and a “stinky” past involving a bankrupt spin-off, BFH boasts a massive QAV quality score and looks dirt cheap on a price-to-cash-flow basis. Episode Timestamps [00:00:00] Introduction: Value investing in the North American market.[00:00:50] SCOTUS vs. Tariffs: The impact on Learning Resources Inc. and the $260 billion repayment mystery.[00:02:15] The AI Bubble: Data center capital costs and the Mag Seven depreciation talk.[00:08:45] ADR Deep Dive: Navigating fees and taxes for Shinhan Financial Group (SHG).[00:13:50] Performance Check: Korea Electric Power (KEP) up 31% and Zepp Health Corp (ZEPP) up 665%.[00:15:30] Pulled Pork Scorecard: Win ratios and Ford Motor Company (F) resilience.[00:16:30] Portfolio Winners: Gains in Willis Lease Finance (WLFC), Inter & Co (INTR), and Euroseas (ESEA).[00:18:15] The Finance/Shipping Heavyweight List: Bladex (BLX), StealthGas (GASS), and Korea Telecom (KT).[00:20:45] Deep Dive: Bread Financial (BFH)—The Invisible Store Card engine. Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America Tony, for, uh, new listeners to Australians Value. Investors been talking about value investing on a podcast for years in Australia. Now we’re doing an American version where we talk about the North American market. And we can’t start talking about the North American market, Tony, without talking about Donald Trump and tariffs and SCOTUS and all that kinda stuff this week. So, um. Um, as we, we were talking a little bit about it on our Australian show that we just finished, but as everyone knows, uh, the Supreme Court overturned trump’s, uh, tariffs that he had implemented a year or so ago under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which the Supreme Court said, nah, you can’t do that. That doesn’t work. The company that took it. All the way up to the [00:01:00] Supreme Court was Learning Resources Inc. A relatively small family owned maker of educational toys, uh, that said it was going to increase their. Tariff costs 44 times and that there was no way they could survive and afford to cover that. They didn’t have the capital to front run the tariffs. They couldn’t relocate their manufacturing quickly. Like bigger companies might’ve been able to, and uh, Trump called them. Dirty sleaze bags or just sleaze bags and unpatriotic unpatriotic sleaze bags. How dare you tell me that? The illegal thing that I did was illegal. You’re sleaze bags, major sleaze bags. Yes. And as I said in the last show, when some. [00:02:00] When somebody who’s been found guilty of sexual assault calls you a slee bag, slee major sleighs bag, you know, well, you’ve got problems. You need to take a long, hard look in the mirror, sir. Um, anyway, so what that means, uh, how they’re going to pay back the $260 billion in tariffs that they collected in 2025, uh, uh, remains to be seen. No one knows what it means, and he’s went immediately hit. Every country in the world with a 15% global tariff. No one knows what that means. No one knows what’s going on. It’s just completely bonkers. Completely, completely bonkers. But, you know, you and I were talking at the end of the Australian show about what AI is gonna do, and it’s, there’s you, you talked a lot on the last show about. Um, which you can talk about again if you want, on this show about the, uh, depreciation of capital costs for the mag [00:03:00] seven. Do you wanna do your little talk about that again?[00:04:00] [00:05:00] [00:06:00] Yeah. And you know, a lot of people are calling out the fact that the amount of revenue that these businesses are gonna have to generate in order to pay back all of this money that they’re raising for building data centers. It’s hard to see how that’s gonna happen. A lot of people are calling it an AI bubble, and, uh, yeah, the counter argument to that is, well. It’s pretty certain that AI is gonna be something and somebody’s gonna make [00:07:00] something, some money out of it. Although it also, the counter argument to that is that it can completely collapse socioecon

In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony navigate the “completely bonkers” landscape of 2026, where a Supreme Court reversal on Trump’s previous tariffs and the looming shadow of AI bubbles have left investors guessing. The duo breaks down the hidden “gotchas” of American Depository Receipts (ADRs), specifically examining the tax hurdles and custody fees associated with South Korean plays like Shinhan Financial Group (SHG) and Korea Electric Power (KEP). The centerpiece of the episode is a “Pulled Pork” deep dive into Bread Financial (BFH)—a high-yielding, unloved credit card “stub” that has spent years amputating its legacy loyalty businesses to emerge as a pure-play lender. Despite the “Trump Slump” threat of capped interest rates and a “stinky” past involving a bankrupt spin-off, BFH boasts a massive QAV quality score and looks dirt cheap on a price-to-cash-flow basis. Episode Timestamps [00:00:00] Introduction: Value investing in the North American market.[00:00:50] SCOTUS vs. Tariffs: The impact on Learning Resources Inc. and the $260 billion repayment mystery.[00:02:15] The AI Bubble: Data center capital costs and the Mag Seven depreciation talk.[00:08:45] ADR Deep Dive: Navigating fees and taxes for Shinhan Financial Group (SHG).[00:13:50] Performance Check: Korea Electric Power (KEP) up 31% and Zepp Health Corp (ZEPP) up 665%.[00:15:30] Pulled Pork Scorecard: Win ratios and Ford Motor Company (F) resilience.[00:16:30] Portfolio Winners: Gains in Willis Lease Finance (WLFC), Inter & Co (INTR), and Euroseas (ESEA).[00:18:15] The Finance/Shipping Heavyweight List: Bladex (BLX), StealthGas (GASS), and Korea Telecom (KT).[00:20:45] Deep Dive: Bread Financial (BFH)—The Invisible Store Card engine. Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America Tony, for, uh, new listeners to Australians Value. Investors been talking about value investing on a podcast for years in Australia. Now we’re doing an American version where we talk about the North American market. And we can’t start talking about the North American market, Tony, without talking about Donald Trump and tariffs and SCOTUS and all that kinda stuff this week. So, um. Um, as we, we were talking a little bit about it on our Australian show that we just finished, but as everyone knows, uh, the Supreme Court overturned trump’s, uh, tariffs that he had implemented a year or so ago under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which the Supreme Court said, nah, you can’t do that. That doesn’t work. The company that took it. All the way up to the [00:01:00] Supreme Court was Learning Resources Inc. A relatively small family owned maker of educational toys, uh, that said it was going to increase their. Tariff costs 44 times and that there was no way they could survive and afford to cover that. They didn’t have the capital to front run the tariffs. They couldn’t relocate their manufacturing quickly. Like bigger companies might’ve been able to, and uh, Trump called them. Dirty sleaze bags or just sleaze bags and unpatriotic unpatriotic sleaze bags. How dare you tell me that? The illegal thing that I did was illegal. You’re sleaze bags, major sleaze bags. Yes. And as I said in the last show, when some. [00:02:00] When somebody who’s been found guilty of sexual assault calls you a slee bag, slee major sleighs bag, you know, well, you’ve got problems. You need to take a long, hard look in the mirror, sir. Um, anyway, so what that means, uh, how they’re going to pay back the $260 billion in tariffs that they collected in 2025, uh, uh, remains to be seen. No one knows what it means, and he’s went immediately hit. Every country in the world with a 15% global tariff. No one knows what that means. No one knows what’s going on. It’s just completely bonkers. Completely, completely bonkers. But, you know, you and I were talking at the end of the Australian show about what AI is gonna do, and it’s, there’s you, you talked a lot on the last show about. Um, which you can talk about again if you want, on this show about the, uh, depreciation of capital costs for the mag [00:03:00] seven. Do you wanna do your little talk about that again?[00:04:00] [00:05:00] [00:06:00] Yeah. And you know, a lot of people are calling out the fact that the amount of revenue that these businesses are gonna have to generate in order to pay back all of this money that they’re raising for building data centers. It’s hard to see how that’s gonna happen. A lot of people are calling it an AI bubble, and, uh, yeah, the counter argument to that is, well. It’s pretty certain that AI is gonna be something and somebody’s gonna make [00:07:00] something, some money out of it. Although it also, the counter argument to that is that it can completely collapse socioecon

In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony navigate a volatile week in the US markets, lead by Ford’s staggering $8.2 billion loss for 2025 and their strategic retreat from full electrification. The duo reviews the impressive performance of their “deep dive” portfolio, noting that many previously analyzed stocks have seen triple-digit or high double-digit gains. The centerpiece of the episode is a “Pulled Pork” deep dive into **Shinhan Financial Group ($SHG)**, a South Korean banking giant. Despite a litany of scandals involving cartel-like collusion, fraud, and political instability in Korea, the hosts weigh the risks against the “Value Up” government catalyst that may finally unlock the company’s depressed valuation.— Episode Timestamps **[00:00:00]* – Introduction and the state of the US market. **[00:00:48]* – **Ford ($F)**: Analysis of the $8.2 billion loss and the pivot away from EVs. **[00:04:41]* – Portfolio Review **[00:12:15]* – Deep Dive (Pulled Pork): **Shinhan Financial Group ($SHG)* history and Korean banking. **[00:48:38]* – Tribute: Remembering Robert Duvall. Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome to QAV America, Tony. This is episode 40, uh, for brand new listeners. Welcome. This is a show where we talk about value investing in the US markets. You might notice from our accent. That we are not accents, that we are not Americans. We are Australian value investors that have been doing a podcast about value investing in Australia for many years. And these days we do also do one about the American market because why not? And, uh, it’s been an interesting week, Tony, in the American markets. Ford reported their worst quarterly earnings in four years on Tuesday, and a net loss of $8.2 billion for 2025. What’s $8.2 billion between friends, Tony? Tony: Is this part of the great ev write down? I’ve been reading about all the, uh, EV manufacturers are getting back into producing V [00:01:00] eight cars Cameron: Yeah. Drill, baby drill. Tony: Yeah, yeah, Cameron: Yes. Tony: of companies riding down their ev. Investments Cameron: is, Tony: off E investments. Cameron: This is their largest loss since the 2008 recession. At least 4.8 billion of it was due to the EV division. Tony: Yeah. Cameron: Article I’ve got says E uh, electric vehicle sales were battered and previous corporate plans were shattered. Oh, look at that. That’s nice. Battered and shattered Tony: Yeah. Cameron: across the industry this year following the. Tony: how I like my fish and chips. Cameron: Following the Trump administration’s push to slash a seven and half thousand federal EV tax credit that was signed into law by former President Biden in 2022. Ford was one of many automakers committed to an electrified future that was hit hard by the decision. In response, the company said that it will. Pivot from full electrification to partial [00:02:00] electrification, and in December announced a major set scale back of its electrical vehicle, pla electric vehicle plans, which included killing the electric pickup truck, F-150 Lightning. I think the customer has spoken. That’s the punchline. Ford, CEO. Jim Farley said in an earnings call on Tuesday, I think uh, Donald Trump has spoken more than the customer. Tony: Yeah, I Cameron: Mm-hmm. Tony: Well, aren’t there, isn’t there, hasn’t there been a wine back of tax credits as well for EV cars? So a way, the customer has spoken ’cause they’re not buying EVs unless they get a tax rebate for it. Cameron: Yeah, Tony: Yeah. Cameron: Uh, in the absence of a tax credit, Ford and other automakers such as GM are betting on two things to spur customer demand in the us affordability and autonomous driving. At the core of that plan is a $30,000 electric vehicle with eyes off driving that Flo Ford plans to unveil in 2028. Tony: oh my God, it’s like. We’ll pivot to EVs. [00:03:00] pivot back to Hemis. pivot to driverless cars. It’s Cameron: Well, they gotta do something Tony: it if it’s their own money, would they be doing that Cameron: well. Tony: money? Sure. 8 billion. Cameron: What’s 8 billion? Tony: Yeah. Cameron: While the American EV industry suffers Chinese electric vehicle giants enjoy government subsidies that give them at times dangerously good pricing power. Chinese EVs. Yeah. Dangerous to who? Chinese EVs go for unbelievably low prices. And while they’re not allowed to be imported into the United States, the low pricing has made it very tough for American EV makers to compete elsewhere in the world. Even long-term American Ally Canada decided last month to allow Chinese EV imports. Tony: Well, I’m glad that the America’s calling Canada a long term ally now and not 51st state or, or worse. Cameron: Gizmodo. I don’t think that’s how Donald Trump would refer to them, but Tony: Yeah. Cameron: bunch of Commies is

In this high-stakes episode, Cameron and Tony celebrate a “bonkers” run for the QAV America portfolio, which is currently outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly double. After reviewing news on Seneca Foods (SENEA) and the curious 15% share price drop for Regional Management (RM) following record earnings, the duo dives into the murky waters of Mammoth Energy Services (TUSK). What begins as a look at an energy services “roll-up” quickly transforms into a true-crime corporate thriller involving a $1.8 billion contract, a FEMA bribery scandal, and a forfeited 40-foot luxury catamaran. They analyze whether TUSK is a “mammoth in the making” or a “wild pig,” weighing its current status as a cash-heavy “stub” with zero debt against its history of “dirty stories” and its new pivot into aviation rentals and fiber optics. — Episode Timestamps [00:00:00] Intro: Market “conniptions” and the US sneezing on Australia.[00:00:50] Portfolio Performance: The dummy portfolio hits 103% since inception (Highlights: WLFC, BLX, ESCA, GASS).[00:05:40] Stock News: SENEA (Seneca Foods) Q3 results show improving margins.[00:06:20] Stock News: RM (Regional Management) beats expectations but the share price craters.[00:07:50] Deep Dive: TUSK (Mammoth Energy Services) Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America, Tony. This is episode 38 of QAV America. Been a turbulence week, weak in the American markets. Bitcoin is down, gold and silver are down. New Fed chairman nominee sell. America Trades are still going on. The president of the United States are suing the United States government for $10 billion. Nothing to see here. Jeffrey Epstein. Millions of files released. Oh wow. It’s a lot to keep up with. One of the good things about QAV is we don’t have to keep up with it. Tony Kynaston: correct and, and of course the Melania Trump, uh, premier. Cameron: Uh, and, uh, Jeffrey Epstein, not, not in it as, from what I can tell. I, I don’t understand. Anyway, Tony Kynaston: Bezos. You [00:01:00] think $40 million would give you a walk on cameo or you’d it in front of the blue rocket or something, wouldn’t you? Cameron: meanwhile, Elon Musk is merging SpaceX and X ai, uh, news is today, Tony Kynaston: Uhhuh. Cameron: I think SpaceX’s building is buying Twitter or taking over Twitter and x ai, which is part of that, uh, something, something I don’t understand. It’s all going on. Microsoft’s share price are down. Ai, the Mag seven share prices are down, but they’ve been down before. Tony Kynaston: guy? Cameron: Well, I’m glad you asked Tony. Our portfolio is doing Doing okay. Doing okay. Let me, let me bring it up and we can talk about it in some detail. I did have to sell, uh, a couple of stocks out of QAV Light, the new light portfolio yesterday. I’ll get into that in a second. But the [00:02:00] dummy portfolio that I’ve been running on in the US since September, 2023 is, has returned 98.41% since then. So it’s doubled in little over two years versus the s and p 500, which is up 57% over that same timeframe. So not quite doing double market, but pretty close to double market and. It’s really boomed since, um, well let’s see, as of 19th of November last year we were neck and neck. We’d been up, we’d come back. We were neck and neck with the s and p about November last year. So it’s broken away since then. Doing very well the last couple of months, two months, two and a half months, absolutely killing it. Um, [00:03:00] just to give you a sense, our rockstar Willis Lee’s finance company currently sitting at about 300% gain Innova, which is actually in my news items today. Uh, I’ll get to that in a minute. It’s up 188%. Euro, CS ESEA is up a hundred percent. Uh, BLX Foreign Trade, bank of Latin America up a hundred percent. Regional management are up 66%. Gas, stealth gas transport, shipping company up 60% UBS also in the news today, up 55%. So yeah, doing, doing quite well across the board. The QAV light portfolio, as I mentioned, I sold a couple of stocks this week. I just decided they’d hit their three point trend line and I’d given up, I dumped them. So that was, um, A MTD idea, dear that we talked about a little while ago. Calvin Cho’s Company, they [00:04:00] breached their three point trend line and spider net and, um, XL PR infrastructure, X-I-F-R-Z-A. Um, they also breached their three point trend line. So rules are rules. Tony Kynaston: yeah. Cameron: thing about QAV, we have rules tell us what to do. Sold those. And I have bought, uh, the stock that I’m gonna do a deep dive on today. Ec eco petrol sa out of Colombia. Tony Kynaston: Not, Cameron: am, Tony Kynaston: not eco petrol as in it’s green petrol. It’s Ecuadorian petrol, maybe Cameron: no, they’r

In this episode, Cameron and Tony navigate a turbulent week in the American markets, touching on the downturn of Bitcoin, gold, and the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks. Despite the macro-volatility, they celebrate the continued outperformance of their US dummy portfolio, which has nearly doubled its value since September 2023. The conversation shifts to a critical look at “stores of value” like Bitcoin and gold, with Tony arguing that without an inherent way to calculate intrinsic value, these assets remain speculative “pump and dump” cycles. The centerpiece of the show is a deep dive into the Colombian oil giant, **Ecopetrol (EC)**. The duo explores its unique monopoly on Colombian pipelines and its strategic pivot into high-voltage electricity transmission, all while navigating the “magical realism” of Colombian politics, executive scandals involving “cost-plus” prostitution, and a president who hates the very oil industry his government owns. — ### Episode Timestamps * **[00:00:00]** – Market Turbulence: Bitcoin, Gold, and the Mag 7. * **[00:01:20]** – Corporate News: Elon Musk’s SpaceX and xAI merger. * **[00:01:50]** – Portfolio Update: US Dummy Portfolio vs. S&P 500. * **[00:03:15]** – Recent Sells: Exiting **AMTD** (AMTD IDEA) and **XIFR** (XLPR Infrastructure). * **[00:09:45]** – The Rationality of Gold and Bitcoin: Searching for intrinsic value. * **[00:15:30]** – Deep Dive: **Ecopetrol SA** (EC) – History and the “De Mares Concession”. Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America, Tony. This is episode 38 of QAV America. Been a turbulence week, weak in the American markets. Bitcoin is down, gold and silver are down. New Fed chairman nominee sell. America Trades are still going on. The president of the United States are suing the United States government for $10 billion. Nothing to see here. Jeffrey Epstein. Millions of files released. Oh wow. It’s a lot to keep up with. One of the good things about QAV is we don’t have to keep up with it. Tony Kynaston: correct and, and of course the Melania Trump, uh, premier. Cameron: Uh, and, uh, Jeffrey Epstein, not, not in it as, from what I can tell. I, I don’t understand. Anyway, Tony Kynaston: Bezos. You [00:01:00] think $40 million would give you a walk on cameo or you’d it in front of the blue rocket or something, wouldn’t you? Cameron: meanwhile, Elon Musk is merging SpaceX and X ai, uh, news is today, Tony Kynaston: Uhhuh. Cameron: I think SpaceX’s building is buying Twitter or taking over Twitter and x ai, which is part of that, uh, something, something I don’t understand. It’s all going on. Microsoft’s share price are down. Ai, the Mag seven share prices are down, but they’ve been down before. Tony Kynaston: guy? Cameron: Well, I’m glad you asked Tony. Our portfolio is doing Doing okay. Doing okay. Let me, let me bring it up and we can talk about it in some detail. I did have to sell, uh, a couple of stocks out of QAV Light, the new light portfolio yesterday. I’ll get into that in a second. But the [00:02:00] dummy portfolio that I’ve been running on in the US since September, 2023 is, has returned 98.41% since then. So it’s doubled in little over two years versus the s and p 500, which is up 57% over that same timeframe. So not quite doing double market, but pretty close to double market and. It’s really boomed since, um, well let’s see, as of 19th of November last year we were neck and neck. We’d been up, we’d come back. We were neck and neck with the s and p about November last year. So it’s broken away since then. Doing very well the last couple of months, two months, two and a half months, absolutely killing it. Um, [00:03:00] just to give you a sense, our rockstar Willis Lee’s finance company currently sitting at about 300% gain Innova, which is actually in my news items today. Uh, I’ll get to that in a minute. It’s up 188%. Euro, CS ESEA is up a hundred percent. Uh, BLX Foreign Trade, bank of Latin America up a hundred percent. Regional management are up 66%. Gas, stealth gas transport, shipping company up 60% UBS also in the news today, up 55%. So yeah, doing, doing quite well across the board. The QAV light portfolio, as I mentioned, I sold a couple of stocks this week. I just decided they’d hit their three point trend line and I’d given up, I dumped them. So that was, um, A MTD idea, dear that we talked about a little while ago. Calvin Cho’s Company, they [00:04:00] breached their three point trend line and spider net and, um, XL PR infrastructure, X-I-F-R-Z-A. Um, they also breached their three point trend line. So rules are rules. Tony Kynaston: yeah. Cameron: thing about QAV, we have rules tell us what to do. Sold those. And I have bought, uh, the stock that I’m gonna do a d

In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony navigate the extremes of global weather and market volatility. After discussing the impact of recent geopolitical “deals” on their US portfolios, they dive into a success story from the Bakken formation: **Chord Energy (CHRD)**. The conversation explores the “Shale 2.0” era, detailing how modern horizontal drilling and leaner capital structures have transformed former bankruptcy stories into cash-generating powerhouses. Tony provides a technical breakdown of Chord’s recent $11 billion acquisition of Enerplus and their shareholder-friendly policy of returning free cash flow through buybacks and dividends. — ### Episode Timestamps * **[00:01:45]** – Market Update: Trump’s “Art of the Deal” tariffs and impact on the US portfolio. * **[00:02:45]** – Portfolio Performance: Comparing the Main US portfolio (up 92% since inception) to the new Light portfolio. * **[00:03:55]** – Recent Trades: Selling **AMCX** (AMC Networks) and **GTN** (Gray Television); holding **VLRS** (Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación). * **[00:05:00]** – Deep Dive Intro: The “Williston Whale” and the history of North Dakota oil.   Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, episode 37. It is 27th of January, 2026 in Australia. It’s, uh, 1935 in the United States. Uh, Tony Kynaston: Well, and also very cold. Apparently, I, my condolences to anybody has been affected by the freak cold snap over there where it’s not usually happening. Cameron: My regular co-host in my history shows Ray Harris, who’s in Virginia, sent me a photo out of his window earlier today. There’s a lot of snow outside the front of his house. Tony Kynaston: we’re sweltering Cameron: Very cold. Tony Kynaston: like Cameron: Yes. Tony Kynaston: fifth day of Cameron: Mm, Tony Kynaston: degrees Celsius. Cameron: warmest place on the planet. Apparently Australia is right now Tony Kynaston: What’s, Cameron: place in the planet. Tony Kynaston: Celsius and American terms. So there’d be 110 maybe. Cameron: Oh yeah. Bloody, [00:01:00] bloody hot, Tony. Bloody hot. Well, uh, look, before I get into my deep dive, my little walk down Wall Street today, Tony. Um, we had the Sell America trade going on last week when Donald Trump threatened to throw more tariffs on Europe, but we just made a deal. They said, I don’t care. He said, deal Shme. I’m the art of the deal. I just break the deal and throw more things in. But then he tared on that as he often does when they agreed to let him invade Greenland or whatever the hell he’s gonna do today. So the, the market had a bit of a conniption for a few days, did affect our US portfolio. Um, let me just bring that up so I can tell you. Well look, our portfolio, our, our main US portfolio that I’ve been running for a couple of years is doing great. Um, the new one that I started, the light [00:02:00] portfolio that doesn’t have its legs under it yet, and a lot of the stocks that I’m buying were very close to their sell lines anyway. They just etched above them. Um, became a buy. I’ve had to sell a couple, but, um. Oh, it looks like our US one has gone back a little bit too. Anyway, for the last 30 days, our US dummy portfolio main one is up 15% versus the s and p 500, up 0.29% in the last 30 days. So it’s still all right, uh, VV versus that. Tony Kynaston: of Cameron: Um, Tony Kynaston: in a month. Cameron: since inception. Tony Kynaston: Yeah. Cameron: Yeah. Since inception, which is, uh, September, 2023, our portfolio is up 92% versus the s and p up 56. So not quite double market, uh, but doing, doing pretty good like in the last 30 days, no last three months, [00:03:00] it’s up 21% versus the s and p up 2.3. So it’s particularly since the beginning of the year, it’s done quite well. The light portfolio though that I only started a month or so ago, I think late December, not doing as well. It’s down two and a half percent since I started it versus the s and p up 1%, and I have had to sell a couple of things recently. I sold. A MCX this week. A MC networks breached their three point trend line. And also a MTD idea that we talked about recently. Uh, no, hold on. I haven’t sold those. Um, they, they are a cell, but I’m holding onto them just because I’m being bloody minded about it. Uh. I told you last week, I’m giving, I’m giving all of these stocks a month to settle in before I sell ’em, because they’re so close to their sell lines. When I buy ’em, they go up a buck, they go down a buck, you know. But I did sell GTN Media last week, um, which I’d held onto for about a [00:04:00] month. And A MCX I’d held for about a month. So I was like, well, that’s it. Your grace period is over. Um, but VLRS. That I added last week is up a

In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony navigate the complex intersections of the 2026 US economy, where the AI boom is currently offsetting the drag of ongoing tariffs. The duo explores the shifting AI landscape, notably Apple’s decision to build the next Siri on Google Gemini rather than homegrown technology, leaving significant questions about the future of OpenAI. The heart of the show is a “Pulled Pork” deep dive into **AMTD Idea Group (AMTD)**, a company with a fascinating Australian origin story involving the Commonwealth Bank. Despite trading at an unbelievable discount to book value (P/B 0.04), AMTD remains a polarizing prospect due to its controversial leadership under Calvin Choi, a bizarre “Spider Net” ecosystem, and a recent shift from Big Four auditors to a small regional firm in Singapore. — ### Episode Timestamps * **[00:00:00]** – **The State of the US Economy**: How the AI boom is currently acting as a buffer against tariff-induced drags. * **[00:03:00]** – **AI Shakeups (#AAPL, #GOOGL, #MSFT)**: Apple pivots to Google Gemini for Siri, raising red flags for OpenAI’s longevity. * **[00:06:00]** – **Tanker Tycoons (#TEN)**: Discussion on the “Venezuela trade” and why shipping companies are currently “making out like bandits”. * **[00:08:00]** – **Portfolio Performance (#WLFC, #GASS, #KT, #KE)**: Reviewing the US portfolio’s 23.5% gain over the last 90 days. * **[00:10:00]** – **Deep Dive: AMTD Idea Group (#AMTD)**: Introduction to the “luxury suitcase at a thrift shop” investment case. * **[00:12:00]** – **The Australian Connection**: AMTD’s 2003 origins with Commonwealth Bank and CK Hutchinson. * **[00:15:00]** – **Calvin Choi and the “Spider Net”**: Exploring the visionary/controversial leadership and the self-reinforcing ecosystem. * **[00:19:00]** – **Regulatory Red Flags**: Details on Calvin Choi’s SFC ban and hidden beneficial interests. * **[00:23:00]** – **The HKD Meme Stock Ghost (#HKD)**: Recapping the 2022 explosion where AMTD Digital briefly became the 14th largest company in the world. * **[00:31:00]** – **The Paris Pivot and *L’Officiel***: AMTD’s move to France and its acquisition of the legendary fashion “Bible”. * **[00:34:00]** – **Auditor Alarms**: Why the company moved from Deloitte to a small Singaporean strip-mall auditor. * **[00:36:00]** – **The Numbers vs. The Trust**: A P/E of 2.11 and buying $1 of assets for 4 cents—if you believe the books. * **[00:51:00]** – **Final Verdict**: Trusting the QAV process vs. “holding your nose” on a controversial stock. Transcription   [00:00:00] Cameron: Yeah, I know. I keep noticing that and trying to pull my camera form. Welcome to QAV America, episode 36, Tony. Um, we just come out of our Australian show. One of the things that we did talk about though on that was article I saw in the New York Times this week about the state of the US economy. Uh, I think we’ve talked recently how the Trump tariffs don’t seem to have had the negative impact on the economy over the last year that we thought it might. But according to the New York Times. Uh, in the economists that they’re talking to, uh, the US economy is doing well despite the tariffs, um, not because of the tariffs. Um, they’re basically saying the AI boom is what’s keeping the economy going in the us and it’s offsetting the drag from the tariffs. [00:01:00] It’s quoting Gida Goana for Harvard Economist and former first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund said the AI boomers basically offset the drag from the tariffs, but manufacturing is struggling, particularly small manufacturers are struggling. The job market is anemic. Um, tax deductions aren’t helping manufacturing is just not getting, uh, the wind under its sails that some people thought the tariffs might bring. But as we talked about in the last show, I mean, trying to bring manufacturing back to a country that’s been offshoring it for 40 years was never gonna be a, a short term or easy process, you know, may pay off. And we talked in the last show also about, you know, how difficult it is for businesses to make long-term commitments to major investments, to rebuild manufacturing capability when they don’t really know how long the tariffs are gonna be in place for, you know, if there’s, if, [00:02:00] if the midterms go ahead. And there’s a lot of talk in the mainstream media at the moment in the US about how the midterms may not go ahead because President Trump seems to be suggesting it from time to time. We don’t really need to have the midterms. And then his press secretary will come out and say, he’s only joking. Tony Kynaston: The prison of the Venezuela. I, I thought Yes. Right. Cameron: He is also that yes, he’s and the, and the, uh, new Nobel Prize winner Tony Kynaston: it. Cameron

Episode overview In this episode, Cameron and Tony range from bushfires in Australia to political pressure on the US Federal Reserve, before digging into portfolio performance and a detailed QAV-style teardown of Mexican ultra-low-cost airline Volaris (VLRS). They unpack why airlines keep showing up on the QAV America buy list, how VLRS built a Ryanair-style model aimed at converting long-haul bus travellers into flyers, and why the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine recall temporarily derailed the business. The discussion balances strong operating cash flow and a seasoned low-cost airline playbook against razor-thin margins, fuel price sensitivity, and the ever-present risks of airline investing. ⸻ Timestamps & topics 00:00 – Bushfires and resilience Victoria bushfires, large-scale horse evacuations, and the limits of government preparedness. 02:30 – US market tension: Powell vs Trump Political pressure on the Fed, central bank independence, and why markets care. 06:30 – Portfolio performance update QAV America portfolio vs S&P 500. 09:30 – Stock deep dive: Volaris (VLRS) 31:00 – Other recent picks and portfolio reflections Quick updates on recent selections and sector clustering across airlines, shipping, and power. Transcription [00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America, Tony. This is episode 35. We’re recording this on the 13th of January, 2026. Uh, how are you, Tony? Tony Kynaston: Good, good, good. As I said, um, in the Australian show, we’ve had a lot of bush fires Victoria, which is unfortunate. And some of those I guess, have indirectly affected me because I have, um. Brood mares and race horses in various farms, and had to be evacuated overnight quickly, which is logistically very difficult to move. I think in total like about 500 horses. Um, between various farms and it’s been amazing the way that everyone’s pitched in. And there’s just been convoys of horse floats taking horses and putting them on other farms. In one case, I think the sale yard in the near tele marine airport in Melbourne’s taken 150 and there’s housing them. So [00:01:00] it’s, it’s the worst part of nature and the best part of humanity, as someone said to see all this happen. Cameron: Although I’d like to see humanity stop the fires from happening in the first place, I think that would be a better, Tony Kynaston: Yeah. Cameron: you know? Hmm. Tony Kynaston: Well, I think they’ll Cameron: Hmm. Tony Kynaston: bushfires. It’s whether they’re uncontrolled is the issue. Cameron: Hmm. Yeah, as we were talking about on the last show, like, you know, we’ve known for a long time that things are getting hotter and that we’re gonna have more fires and what are we doing to not, or prevent them if we can, and if we can’t, you know, sort of minimize the impact and the damage and the destruction of them better than we are currently doing because. You know, they still seem to be hugely tragic events. So I was just reading about the LA Fires, which happened a year ago. The other day, I think it was the 12 month anniversary of that. They were talking about how many hundreds of thousands of people are still displaced in LA after all of that [00:02:00] happened. Um. Tony Kynaston: Yeah. Um, you’re right. I dunno about America, but in Australia it still seems to be a lot of finger pointing between councils and government departments and people who think we should be going back to First Nations and looking at what they do to manage bushfires, et cetera, et cetera. they Cameron: Hmm Tony Kynaston: occur. So Cameron: Hmm. Tony Kynaston: they’re not effective. Cameron: Well, speaking of effective solutions, um. Jerome Powell, apparently not very effective in rebuilding or renovating whatever he is doing to the Federal Reserves offices. And the Department of Justice has decided to open a criminal inquiry into Jerome Powell. Uh, we talked about this on the last show, what the implications of this might be. Yeah. My understanding is like the big issue of this is the perceived. Political nature of the investigation. [00:03:00] Obviously President Trump has been very critical of Jerome Powell, who of course is a Trump appointee originally, but in this administration, uh, second administration of Trump has been very critical of Powell. Powell has not been cutting interest rates as quickly or as often as President Trump would like, and there is this concern that if the. Perceived independence of the Federal Reserve as lessened that it could have implications for the market. Am I understanding that correctly? Tony Kynaston: Yes it is. Uh, well, yes, you are understanding it correctly. Um, and look, it’s. It is been a long time since we haven’t seen an independent reserve bank or fed chair or, um, the European equivalents to those, uh, in various countries. So it’s hard to say whether Trump’s right or the chairs of the F

In the first QAV America episode of 2026, Cameron and Tony reset the framework for the year ahead. With geopolitical shocks rattling oil markets, bullish Wall Street forecasts predicting another US equity rally, and political noise everywhere, the hosts reiterate the core QAV philosophy: ignore predictions, stick to the rules, and let disciplined process do the work. The episode’s deep dive focuses on XPLR Infrastructure (XIFR), a former income darling left for dead after cutting its dividend. Cameron unpacks the wreckage, tracing XIFR’s origins as a NextEra Energy yieldco, the collapse of its “cheap capital forever” model when interest rates rose, and why the market may now be pricing the stock as if its long-dated contracted cash flows don’t exist. The discussion weighs political risk, debt complexity, asset quality, and valuation extremes, before explaining why XIFR sits at the top of the current US QAV buy list and is being added to the live QAV Light portfolio. ⸻ Timestamps & Topics (QAV episode) 00:00 – 03:00Geopolitics, crude oil volatility, and why QAV tracks commodities as signals rather than predictions. 03:00 – 06:30Wall Street forecasts for a 2026 rally. Why QAV ignores predictions and doubles down on rules-based discipline. 06:30 – 09:00“Year of sticking to the rules.” Behavioural discipline as the real edge in investing. 09:00 – 11:00Introducing the deep dive stock: XPLR Infrastructure (XIFR) and why it tops the US buy list. 11:00 – 16:30XIFR’s origin story as a NextEra Energy yieldco. The “infinite money glitch” and how cheap capital powered growth. 42:30 – 45:00Portfolio update, recent performance versus the S&P 500, and adding XIFR to the QAV Light portfolio. Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV, American Edition. Tony, episode 34. Happy New Year. Our first episode of 2026. How are you? Tony Kynaston: I’m good. recuperative week between Christmas and New Year reading Cameron: We’ve just. Tony Kynaston: golf. Cameron: That’s lovely. I was on the beach. Nice to be back in the office though. A lot going on in the world. Obviously we’ll get into my deep dive of the week soon, but before we do that, obviously lot happening, uh, in the world. In the last few days, the president of the United States sent some guys into kidnap, the president of Venezuela and his wife. Uh. The most interesting part of that, or important part of that from our perspective, is what it means for the price of crude oil and what it does to the markets in general. We just talked about this on our [00:01:00] Australian show in some detail, but essentially to recap. No one really knows what this means for the price of crude oil. It could go up, it could go down, uh, it could do nothing could go sideways. But one of the things that I said on our last show is we do track for people that are new listeners. We do track, uh, about a dozen or so commodities. Because a lot of the stocks, particularly in our Australian portfolio, are commodity stocks that we pay attention to, and we like to know where the commodities are because that informs our buy and sell decisions for, uh, mining companies or companies involved in commodities in one way or the other. And crude oil has not been a buy for us for some time, but as I pointed out in our last show, it is getting close to the byline for us. I think the buy price for us for crude oil is about $65 a barrel, and it’s ran about 61 [00:02:00] 62 this morning, so, and moving up. So it could become a buy in the next week or two. We’ll just keep an eye and see where it goes. If it becomes a buy, it means there’s a lot of. Stocks and our buy lists, both in Australia and the US become buyers again. Um, but we just play it day by day. Keep an eye on it. Tony Kynaston: new listeners, um, if something, if a company is a minor or a, an oil producer or refiner or whatever, we use the underlying commodity as a buy and sell guide for us, because it doesn’t always have a one-to-one correlation. But I found over the years that the trends have a pretty correlation between the, where the underlying commodity goes and where the fortunes of the company, which exploit that underlying commodity go. Cameron: it’s a bit of a lagging indicator. Tony Kynaston: Yeah. Cameron: So yeah, the price. If the price for oil starts to go up, then oil stocks will probably go up a little bit later, though we can catch it a little bit early and vice versa. If the commodity starts to [00:03:00] drop, usually the share price will drop over time as well. Uh, the other story that we talked about is every Wall Street analyst surveyed by Bloomberg now predicts another stock rally in 2026 in the US markets. Again, from our perspective, that’s interesting, but we don’t really care one way or the other. If you know, we, we play the market as it happens. If it goes up, great. If it doesn’t, that’s okay for us too. We just stick

Episode Overview In the final QAV America episode of 2025, Cameron and Tony reflect on a turbulent but revealing year for markets, value investing, and the QAV system. The conversation opens with a recap of US market conditions and the launch of QAV Light US, designed to give American listeners a live, transparent way to learn the QAV process through real weekly trades. Cameron then reviews the long-term performance of the US dummy portfolio, highlighting strong multi-year outperformance despite a difficult 2025 relative to the S&P 500. The episode’s deep dive focuses on AMC Networks (AMCX)—a former prestige-TV powerhouse now trading at distressed valuations. The discussion traces AMC’s origins in the Dolan family’s cable empire, its golden era producing Mad Men, Breaking Bad, and The Walking Dead, and the brutal impact of cord-cutting on its business model. Cameron and Tony unpack why AMC is bleeding on earnings but still generating real cash, why the market hates it, and why it nonetheless tops the QAV buy list. The episode closes with a broader discussion of cycles in investing, the importance of selling discipline, Tony’s emerging “Growth over PE” insight from Australian markets, and why patience with a rules-based system matters more than short-term performance. ⸻ ⏱️ Timestamps & Topics (QAV Episode) 00:00 – 02:30End-of-year reflections, weather whiplash, and why Australians don’t understand US winters. 02:30 – 05:30US market update, no Santa rally, and the launch of QAV Light US as a learning portfolio. 05:30 – 09:30US dummy portfolio performance review vs S&P 500. 09:30 – 14:30Why QAV is not “buy and hold forever” and why selling matters as much as buying. 14:30 – 19:00Tony’s emerging insight: Growth over PE as a potential performance driver. 19:00 – 26:00Global equity market wrap: US, Europe, Japan, Hong Kong, and market cycles. 26:00 – 29:30Introduction to this week’s QAV Light addition: AMC Networks (AMCX). 1:07:00 – EndQAV philosophy, cycles, patience, and closing thoughts for the year. Transcription   Cameron: Welcome to QAV America, Tony, the last QAV America of the Year. This is episode 33, 33. Uh, it’s, we’re recording this on December 30th, 2025. It’s hot where we are cold, where our listeners probably are. My boys were just in New York for Christmas with their mom. Got to see snow for the first time. Tony Kynaston: really? Cameron: I said to them, what did you think? They were like, yeah, it was fun for about an hour. And then we were like, God, this is terrible. Imagine living in this. I said, yeah, imagine having to deal with that three months of the year. It’s crazy, but they’re back in LA now. Tony Kynaston: fair, I never, like, I’ve been to New York a number of times and I never thought it handled snow. Well, you know, the colder cities where snow’s a regular [00:01:00] occurrence are set up for it, but New York’s kind of, maybe it’ll snow this year. Maybe not. So we’re not gonna bother about for it too much. Cameron: Well, it just had, I think its biggest dump in four years, the night before the boys left, so they were stuck on the tarmac for two and a half hours waiting to get out and all that kinda stuff. Uh, well, I don’t know. I’ve been to Utah in winter and it’s built around snow that time of year, but, and you know, I’m sure they’ve got a handle on it, but it’s still a nightmare having to shovel your driveway every day and defrost your car before you can go anywhere crazy. I always said to people, you know, there are places you can live where you don’t have to do this for three months of every year. You know, you can just move to a warmer climate, Tony Kynaston: Well Cameron: but I don’t. Tony Kynaston: do I play ice hockey and go ice skating and all my skiing Cameron: Go visit you go visit, you go visit a place for a week and then get out. Yeah. Okay. Tony Kynaston: exists [00:02:00] in the US and Mexico Cameron: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Tony Kynaston: what’s west coast Arizona Cameron: yes. I love Arizona. I want to get back to Arizona. It’s very hot, but, uh, so pretty, such a pretty place. So many pretty places in there. All the ro cactuses and all the red. what? Oh yeah. I don’t care about golf courses. Cactuses. I like, uh, Tony don’t have much news-wise to talk about. Um, in the US their market hasn’t had a Santa rally this week. Um, it’s been pretty quiet. There’s a just, things are still bubbling along over there, uncertainty about labor numbers, et cetera, et cetera. But the economy, generally speaking seems to be trundling along despite tariffs and all of the unknowns. But I did wanna mention [00:03:00] to you that in the last week, I finally launched our US light portfolio. So for listeners in the us, uh, what we’ve been doing in Australia for the last few years is we, we have our regular portfolio

Episode Overview In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony open with reflections on the tragic Bondi attack and Australia’s long-standing gun laws before turning to the week’s U.S. stock market action. They discuss recent market jitters, AI-driven volatility in tech stocks, and the ongoing rotation into “value” names. Cameron then delivers a deep dive on Ziff Davis (ZD) — a little-known but highly profitable owner of the internet’s comparison-shopping and review infrastructure. The conversation explores ZD’s long history, its reinvention after the dot-com crash, its heavy reliance on SEO and affiliate monetisation, and the existential question hanging over the business: will AI replace human-driven product reviews? Rather than forecasting the future, the episode frames ZD through the QAV lens — cash flow, valuation, optionality, and downside protection — and examines why a business that looks structurally threatened may still offer attractive value today. ⸻ Timestamps & Topics 00:00 – Australia, violence, and contextReflections on the Bondi tragedy, Australia’s gun laws, and why mass shootings remain rare compared with the U.S. 01:40 – U.S. market news: jittery but selectiveU.S. indices drift lower as investors wait on jobs and inflation data; discussion of “value” rotations and why index definitions of value differ from QAV’s approach. 02:40 – AI stocks wobbleAI-linked stocks pull back sharply, with Broadcom (AVGO) highlighted as suffering its worst three-day decline since 2020. 03:30 – Commodities and energy signalsBasic materials outperform; copper strength linked to data centres and electrification; weakness in oil and LNG despite geopolitical tensions. 04:30 – QAV America portfolio performanceShort-term underperformance versus the S&P 500, but strong long-term outperformance since portfolio inception in September 2023. 05:00 – Winners, laggards, and watchlist highlightsReview of top portfolio performers and notable stocks previously covered but not purchased. 07:30 – Deep dive : Ziff Davis (ZD)Introduction to Ziff Davis (ZD) and its role as the hidden infrastructure behind tech reviews, VPN comparisons, speed tests, and product rankings. Transcription   [00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome to QAV America. Tony, episode 32. What do you know? Tk? Tony Kynaston: Well, it’s reached the shores of America and America’s new outlets, but it’s been an unfortunate. Well, worse than unfortunate time in Australia. So, um, a lot of, uh, reflection going on in Australia over the terrible things at Bondi Beach. I had lived in Sydney where I was living, uh, we would’ve been pretty close to it. Cameron: Yeah, very shocking. Um, I think it’s maybe the third mass shooting we’ve had in. Nearly 30 years. Tony Kynaston: Mm-hmm. Cameron: Does that sound about right? Tony Kynaston: Yeah. I can only think of poor Arthur and this one being that bad as being a couple of. know, sort of murder, suicide things, farms or whatever along the way. But this is the first, Cameron: Yeah. Tony Kynaston: uh, with, you know, weapons that shouldn’t have been licensed, I don’t think in the first place to people. Cameron: In public, Tony Kynaston: Mm-hmm. Cameron: you know, civilians, uh, all of that kind of stuff. The first one [00:01:00] like that, since 1996. That we’ve had every 30 years. So yes, very shocking, very sad, very tragic, very complicated. Very complex. Uh, but, um, yeah, it’s something that we’re, we’re used to reading about in the front cover of the New York Times, but not, uh, about Australia. So anyway, moving right along. Um. Let’s talk about stock market news in the United States over the last week, Tony. And then I will do a deep dive on Ziff Davis. ZD is the ticker Tony Kynaston: Would that be Cameron: as IZD. Yeah, ZD you’re right. And as I mentioned, there’s an Isaac Asimov, uh, leak to this, which you will enjoy ’cause they’re both big fans of Asimov. Tony Kynaston: Mm. Cameron: Well, the market’s been a little bit wobbly in the US again. Uh, finished the week with modest [00:02:00] losses s and p 500. The Dow and the NASDAQ are all trending. Lower traders over there are waiting for key economic reports on job and inflation. Um, stocks saw pressure as investors are moving into. Value area, Tony? Value. Tony Kynaston: Oh, we can, got someone to sell to. Cameron: Yeah. Although quite often what we’ve seen over the years is when they talk about value, it’s not the same way that we talk about value. Tony Kynaston: not. Cameron: Our definition of value is a little bit more specific. I think Tony Kynaston: Yeah. Cameron: the AI. Tony Kynaston: the indices normally talk about value as being the lowest deciles of the PE ratio range, but as we know, PD ratios aren’t a great guide to the value of a company Cameron: yeah. Tony Kynaston: mm. Cameron: We’re looking, we’re looking at t

Overview In this episode, Cam and Tony dig into the strange, noisy twilight zone of the current US market: rate-cut expectations, mega-cap fatigue, and a broadening rally that’s finally throwing some love toward the small and mid-caps that QAV thrives on. They walk through the performance of the US portfolio, poke at the rotation narrative, and then Cam takes everyone deep into the iron-ore jungles of Brazil with a pulled-pork deep dive on Vale — “the FMG of Brazil”, complete with dam failures, lawsuits, ESG fallout, and fat cashflows. Along the way they contrast Brazil vs Australia, FMG vs Vale, talk iron ore cycles, passive-investing distortions, and the macro-agnostic stubbornness that keeps QAV on the rails. It’s part markets, part commodity history lesson, and part true-crime mining documentary. — Timestamps & Topics 00:00 • Fed rate-cut probabilities and why QAV ignores macro04:00 • US portfolio performance vs S&P 500 06:00 • Small-cap underperformance creates QAV pickings 07:30 • Passive funds distorting large-cap flows 08:00 • US portfolio winners rundown14:00 • SEC leadership change and weakening shareholder power • (none)16:00 • Pulled pork intro: Vale (VALE), “the FMG of Brazil” • VALE, FMG Transcription   Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America Tony, episode 31. Big News in America. Tony the Fed is meeting rate cut widely Expected markets are pricing in a 90% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points today. Tomorrow, we’ll see what happens. It’s driven a big rally across equities in the us. A Santa Claus year end rally, they’re saying, but we were just, we were just talking on our Australian show about our. Reserve bank that’s meeting today, that’s, uh, gonna decide what they’re doing about interest rates and it doesn’t really matter. A great deal to us can have an impact on the broader economy, but from a QAV perspective, we play the cards as they’re dealt. Interest rates go up, interest rates go down, doesn’t really affect our system. One jot does it. Tony Kynaston: No. I mean, it may cause us a bit of work if we have [00:01:00] to buy and sell something, but no, we don’t. Rely on macro themes at all, nor can I explain them most times and even more remotely can I predict them, so I don’t, don’t even try. Cameron: On the Australian show, I was just reading out results from some of our Australian listeners, uh, following our system. One guy was saying his portfolio’s up 90% this year. Another was saying it’s up 50, 55% this year. Great results across the board. Uh, and it’s a good year, uh, in the Australian market as well as in the US market. Our portfolios are doing well. But as we were talking about, it’s just the system just tells us what to do, uh, tells us what to buy, when to buy, what to sell, when to sell. And what I’ve learned to do in the years we’ve been doing the show is just follow the system. It removes all of the emotion from it, and it also means I don’t really need to follow what’s happening. [00:02:00] Macro economics or in the market, generally speaking. ’cause the system factors all of that in. It works in ups, boom cycles, it works in bear cycles, it works if interest rates are high, it works if interest rates are low. It really just tells us what to do and I, you know, I don’t really need to do much at all. As I was saying on the Australian show, if one of my alerts goes off and says I need to sell something, I sell it. I replace it and then I go back to what I was doing before and just ignore the noise, which is a great way to invest. Tony Kynaston: It’s the only way to invest, I think. And I, I just wanna add one more thing to that, and that is that, um, because of that, the, the, I guess the number one thing you can have as a trait to be an investor is persistence. It’s just if you know your system’s gonna work on all kinds of. Ups and downs in market situations, and it has for me over [00:03:00] decades. then rely on it. Don’t start second guessing it. Don’t start oh, it’s been a really good year because like, I’ve had a good year on the share market this year. And, and straight away my brain goes, oh, maybe it’s time to sell. What can we have two good years in a row? What about three? Can we have three good years in which it’s like, it’s like. They just fools errands trying to work out what’s gonna come Cameron: Yeah. Tony Kynaston: So you have a system and you stick to it, and if the market does turn down, you stick to it because you’ll ride it through and then you’ll catch it, at reasonably or low point and it’s way back up again. Cameron: Yeah. Well, speaking of portfolios, so looking at our US portfolio in stock, EDIA, it’s up around about 3% this month versus the s and p 500, up about 1.75%. Um. All time. Our portfoli

Overview In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony take a tour through the strange split-brain mood of the US markets, where weak economic data is somehow bullish because investors are convinced the Fed will cut rates in December. They break down the odd macro setup, check in on the portfolio, and walk through fresh results from star performer **Willis Lease Finance (WLFC)** and a big buyback from **Enova (ENVA)**. From there, Cameron recaps the performance of the 27 US stocks they’ve analysed this year, before diving into a full deep-dive on **AerCap (AER)** — the world’s largest aircraft lessor. The conversation covers why airlines lease instead of own, how aircraft leasing actually works, why Ireland is the global nexus for the industry, the wild origin story of Guinness Peat Aviation, and the massive headache AerCap faced when Russia and Ukraine seized more than 150 of its aircraft in 2022. They wrap with QAV scoring, book-value checks, revenue and profit trends, and a broader conversation about how the leasing model fits into cyclical markets, AI, mobility, and long-term capital allocation. Everything from the Fed to kung-fu neural adaptation shows up along the way. — Timestamps & Topics 00:00 – Market mood & macro split-brain (no tickers) 02:00 – Portfolio news: Willis Lease Finance (WLFC) 03:40 – Enova International (ENVA) buyback 04:30 – Portfolio performance overview 06:00 – Recap of stocks covered this year 08:00 – Deep dive introduction: AerCap (AER) 40:00 – Final wrap & philosophical detour (AI, kung-fu, skills vs computation) Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, episode 30. It’s the 2nd of December, 2025. How you doing? Tony Kynaston: Good summer in Australia. I’m Cameron: Summer in Australia? Uh, not in the United States though, and it’s the overall mood in the US markets. Tony, kind of weird, uh, to say the least bit of a split personality over there at the moment. I think on one side, investors seem to be getting increasingly confident that the Fed will cut rates in December. I think the future markets have the odds sitting at roughly 85%. Now, which is high enough that everyone’s basically planning their Christmas shopping around it. But the flip side is that the economic data, backing that up. It isn’t pretty. Um, you know, I know that there was sort of a break in gathering data while the government was shut down for a while. But manufacturing continues to slump. Inflation and [00:01:00] income growth are cooling off broad GDP expectations for next year of drifted down toward the 2% mark. So it’s sort of a bit of a soft landing fantasy mixed with a little fear that maybe things are wobbly over there. The market o. Tony Kynaston: cuts. That’s the looking The things are looking wobbly. We go through the looking glass like 10 years ago, 20 years ago. Those kinds of numbers were out and about. The market would be tanking. it’s doom and gloom. The economy’s busted. The inflation’s coming down and exports are going down. it’s like yippee. The fed’s gonna cut. We can Yeah. or Yeah. But it’s the, it’s the double-edged sword, right. Um. Yeah, the market’s not doing well, so interest rates are gonna get cut, but the market’s not doing the, the economy’s not doing great. Cameron: Hmm. put Tony Kynaston: called, people Cameron: And as we’ve talked about over the last year on this show, we know that most of the [00:02:00] returns in the Dow Jones are coming from six stocks or seven stocks. Um, so it’s very uneven. That said. Yeah, things are doing okay from our portfolio perspective, but, um, the market opened pretty strongly last week, but then by the beginning of this week, it seemed to have cooled off again. Crypto’s having one of its spasms, bond yields have jumped in terms of our portfolio specific stories though, Tony, some good news. Uh, Willis Lease Finance Company, WL. FC, which has been the rockstar in our portfolio, our US portfolio over the last couple of years. Um, it’s up 152% since we added it, but it was up at one point about over 300%. But they came out with their results this week. Uh, revenue came, [00:03:00] this is for the third quarter. Revenue came in at $183 million, which is up 25% year on year. Pre-tax income grew by the same percentage utilization of their engine and aircraft portfolio. So they lease out engines, mostly few aircraft, but mostly engines, uh, was up 86%. They lifted their dividend from 25 cents to 40 cents. They did note that margins of. Tightened a little, but overall, very solid results from them. And how did their shares do as a result? Uh, nothing much happened. Uh, just it went down. Um, so there you go. Great news. Let’s sell, as you know. Tony Kynaston: money. Let’s sell. want some more loss making companies to invest in? Cameron: Yeah. What, but wha

Episode Overview This week we dive into Korea Electric Power (KEP), a deep-value, government-linked Korean utility that has quietly swung from crisis-level losses to massive operating cash flow. We explore the company’s unusual history stretching back to a royal electrification project in the 1890s, its modern political entanglement with tariff controls, its nuclear-heavy energy mix, and why the market may be mispricing a regulated monopoly with a price-to-operating-cash-flow ratio of 1.5. We also cover the recent sell of VSAT on a 3PTL rule, the psychology of Reddit outrage at PCG, and the broader role utilities play in an AI-powered future where electricity becomes the new picks and shovels. Timestamps 00:00 – Opening chatter, Reddit outrage. 00:01:15 – VSAT sell rule triggered 00:02:00 – Introducing this week’s pulled pork: KEP 00:22:00 – Portfolio philosophy: buy deep value, sell by rules, ignore Reddit foam 00:23:00 – Final wrap-up and sign-off Transcription   Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, episode 29. Uh, how are you? Tony Kynaston: well, thank you. Yep. All Cameron: I tell you what, the folks on Reddit on the value investing sub Reddit did not like my PCG uh, Paul Pork. Last week I did a summary of it for Reddit. Oh, the hate for PCG Tony Kynaston: bet. Cameron: was, so, it was great. They had, Tony Kynaston: did Cameron: mean, there’s so much hate. Tony Kynaston: with Love? Cameron: I did, I called it Leading With Love. Yeah, yeah. Uh, and manslaughter. I, um, Tony Kynaston: What? Oh, so PC G’s part of the hive mind on Pluribus. Now they come Cameron: yeah, it is, Tony Kynaston: love. Cameron: they’re leading with love. Yeah. That should be the tagline for that show. Um, but, uh, yeah, and it was just h hilarious to me how much anger and hate came out, and I was like, Hmm. Tony Kynaston: Well, I’m Cameron: Sounds like a good investment. Tony Kynaston: I. Cameron: Well, but they weren’t talking about the manslaughter. They were just talking [00:01:00] about it being a dog of a company Tony Kynaston: okay. Cameron: and somebody was going on about how they diluted their shareholders when they had to pay for the fires. And I’m like, and why do I care? Like I’m, I’m looking at it post dilution, not, Tony Kynaston: Yeah. Cameron: doesn’t affect me as an investor today, what happened in 2019, or whatever it was. Anyway. I did have to sell something outta the US portfolio. This week I sold Vsat. It was a three point trend line sell, and I replaced it with the company. I’m doing a pulled pork on today. Korean Electric Power, Korea Electric Power, KEP. Kepco. One of the few times I’ve been able to actually do a pulled pork on a stock that is now in our portfolio. Because I actually had to sell something. Don’t tell me what happened to the share price for Vsat today because you just broke the Ex-Girlfriend rule on our Australian show, and uh, I don’t want you to do it again. So, uh. The kept story. I know you’ve got furniture being delivered, so I’m gonna [00:02:00] run through this one quickly today. Uh, another power company. So last week we did PCG. This is another power company, obviously based in Korea. If you hadn’t guessed from the name another regulated monopoly like last week’s show, but this time they’re regulated monopolies in entire country, not just parts of California. Although we know California’s pretty big. And just a heads up, KEP report their financials in Juan, KRW. Bit like posco, the steel slash energy company that we covered a while ago on a, an earlier episode, episode 12, I think I did. Posco. And they’re also a competitor to KEP as it turns out. But we’ll get into this, but when you look at the numbers in stock, EDIA, they’re all in one, so you need to do the conversion. Uh, one USD is about 1,465 KRW, uh, what was that TV show in the eighties? Um, about a radio [00:03:00] station in the us That was it. Not, not, not the Korean one. WKRP, not KRW. Okay. The current share price at the time I’m doing this for KEP is about $16 74. They’re listed on the New York Stock Exchange, so, uh, they’re known in Korea as ion I believe. What they actually do is, well, they’re basically the power grid for South Korea. Um, essentially they transmit, generate, transmit, and distribute electricity to almost every type of customer, from households to Samsung fabs, to shipyards, to farms. The entire market is what they look after the National Grid. They handle virtually a hundred percent of transmission and distribution. They have about six generation subsidiaries across coal, gas, nuclear, wind, solar, you name it. [00:04:00] They produce about 60 to 70% of the electricity. There’s a handful of companies, including Costco, that uh, also generate electricity. Poco. When we did the pulled pork on them, I mentioned as a steel comp

Episode Overview This episode dives into Pacific Gas & Electric (NYSE: PCG) and its strange mix of monopoly power, criminal convictions, billions in liabilities, climate exposure, and a CEO who says she’s “leading with love.” Cameron takes us through PG&E’s century-old origins, deadly infrastructure failures like the Camp Fire manslaughter convictions, the bizarre history of repeat explosions and corruption, and the unusual financial structure that keeps the company alive despite $58B in debt. Tony questions whether a guaranteed utility should even be privately owned, compares it to safer options like Berkshire Hathaway’s utilities, and wonders why we’d touch a business known for burning down half a state. Despite the horrors, PG&E lands on the QAV buy list due to cheap cashflow valuation, a protected regulated monopoly, and a massive turnaround driven by mandated wildfire-prevention spending and government-backed debt. Timestamps 00:00–02:00 US Portfolio performance update General markets02:00–03:30 MODG rises after last week’s pick MODG (TopGolf Callaway)03:30–04:30 Recent picks performance rundown 05:30–06:30 AU market outperforming “trash” theme Australian context06:30–41:00 Feature Deep Dive: Pacific Gas & Electric PCG41:00–47:00 After-hours: Stalker, House of Guinness, Slow Horses Transcription   Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America. Tony, I would ask how you’re doing, but I know because we just did our Australian podcast and you’re doing great. Let me answer that question for you. Tony Kynaston: I’m doing great. My portfolio is doing great. Everything’s great. Cameron: Everything’s great. Our US portfolio, Tony, I’m just bringing it up on the screen here all time. So it’s been running since, uh, September, 2023 is up 55% versus the benchmark I use the s and p 500, which is up 50%. So we’re doing 10% better than the benchmark, 55% over. A little more than two years. It’s not bad. Pretty happy with that. Tony Kynaston: I agree. Cameron: Pretty good. Tony Kynaston: We normally say it’s up 5% though, so usually you take one away from the other rather than make a percentage of a percentage. Cameron: [00:01:00] Okay. Tony Kynaston: better, but Cameron: But if we’re saying double market, then that’s a hundred percent. Isn’t that? How do you say that? If we’re saying double market. Tony Kynaston: Well, double market’s just double market. Cameron: It is double Tony Kynaston: market. Yeah. Cameron: twice as good. Okay. Um, some of the, uh. Tony Kynaston: raise that with me and said, are we better off saying we do five to 10% better than the market? ’cause in Australia, I guess in the US as well, the long term’s, about 10%. So, um, I said, yes, if the market does 10%, it’s right. But if it’s doing, if it’s up as in the America, America, it’s, um, it’s wrong. Cameron: Yeah. Right. Tony Kynaston: Mm-hmm. Cameron: Some of the, uh, just looking at the last, uh, let’s say the last 30 days in our portfolio, our portfolio is beating the index in the last 30 days. Uh, not by a huge amount, but by, well actually I guess judging by [00:02:00] the way you are rating it, s and p is up 0.13% in the last 30 days. Our portfolio is up 0.61%, so that’s five. Five times better. That’s what I was gonna say. Yeah. Uh, the, Tony Kynaston: I like the core skill of marketing. Okay. It’s great. Cameron: yeah. Uh, unfortunately stocked doesn’t tell me how the individual stocks have performed in a 30 day period. It just gives me it from the get go. But, uh, I did want to just look at our, uh. Performance of some of the other stocks that we’ve, uh, talked about over the, uh, last six months or so. We’ve been doing the show, see how they’re all doing. You’ll be happy to know that the company that we talked about last week, top Golf, Callaway Brands, [00:03:00] M-O-D-G-A-K-A, modern golfers up 3% since we talked about it. Tony Kynaston: fantastic. Cameron: Um, some of the others aren’t. Tony Kynaston: little putt, Cameron: Yeah, that was us. That was all our putt. Yeah, that was, that was all our putt. Yeah. Tony Kynaston: another Cameron: IS Tony Kynaston: that I can get excited about? Do you have a Cameron: uh, no, I’ve got some horrifying, horrible stories to talk about this week, but, uh, it should be fun. I wanna admit, I saw a video the other day yesterday of a golf robot that got a hole in one. Have you seen that? Tony Kynaston: No. Cameron: I thought that’s the next evolution. I know for your 60th birthday, we got you a robot, uh, caddy. Tony Kynaston: Catty. Cameron: Uh, we’re gonna get you a golf robot for your 70th birthday. You don’t have to do anything now. You just go out there, plays golf for you. It’ll be fantastic. You’ll love it. Uh, so American Airlines we talked about a coupl

Overview In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony dig into the state of the U.S. market, exploring how AI investment is distorting capital flows, weakening job markets, and reshaping traditional sectors. They discuss how “the Great Freeze” in hiring and the surge in data-centre spending are reshaping the economy. Then Cameron serves up a Pulled Pork deep dive on MODG (Topgolf Callaway Brands)—a company blending golf, entertainment, and retail that’s now splitting itself apart to “unlock value.” Tony reflects on golf’s pandemic-era revival, the engineering of the Big Bertha, and why Callaway’s merger with Topgolf sent its share price into the rough. They unpack tariffs, impairments, and the business logic behind spinning off Topgolf, ending with a lively riff on humanoid robots, golf robots, and even robot jockeys. ⸻ Timestamps [00:00 – 02:00] Portfolio update – U.S. fund down ~2.5 % vs S&P neutral; long-term performance still ahead.[02:00 – 04:00] AI-driven GDP growth — Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta pouring US $370 B into data centres.[05:00 – 08:00] Labor market weakness — “The Great Freeze” as firms delay hiring for AI.[09:00 – 11:00] Humanoid robotics — Tesla Optimus, Xpeng Iron, and China’s robot surge.[11:00 – 12:00] Fed policy, tariffs, and inflation risk.[12:00 – 48:00] Pulled Pork: MODG – Topgolf Callaway Brands Transcription   Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, episode 27. Tony Kynaston: Wow, that’s gone fast. Cameron: it’s been a couple of weeks since we did a US show. Didn’t have time to do one last week, but, I’ll just start with a bit of a portfolio update, get into some news, and then I’m gonna do a, a special deep dive pulled pork that I prepared just for you. Tony went way down the list to find this one for you. Tony Kynaston: forward to it. Cameron: The portfolio has not had a good 30 days. Our US portfolio, it’s down 6% in the last 30 days versus the s and p 500, which is pretty much neutral in the last 30 days. So it hasn’t been doing great too. Um, hold on. Did I say how long it’s down? That’s, let me see what, no. Down, down two and a half percent, not 6%. Two and a half percent in the last 30 days. Um. So it’s hasn’t been, uh, a great, uh, period for us still tariffs. I think that [00:01:00] just the general US economy is not boating well for our portfolio over there. But that said again, if you look at, uh, since inception, which is. Just a little bit over two years. September 23, we’re tracking at 53% return versus the s and p 551%. So we’re still beating the index over the last couple of years, but, uh, the year to date we’re down 18% versus the s and p 500, up 14%. So it has been a rough calendar year for our portfolio. For all the reasons I mentioned before, but some of the stocks are still, I mean, everything’s doing quite well. I mean, everything’s up, everything’s doing well, just not as well as it was doing. So Tony Kynaston: peak. Cameron: nothing to complain. Yeah, yeah. Like me, um, Tony Kynaston: Best days are ahead of you Can. Cameron: uh, [00:02:00] I keep telling myself that Tony, uh, listen. It been interesting a couple of weeks in the US market. Corporate earnings are surprisingly strong for the third quarter of 2025. Median earnings for the Russell 3000 Index rose about 11% compared to a year ago. Six of the 11 sectors in the s and p 500 reported positive earnings growth up from just two sectors. In the prior quarter. Big tech industrial energy have been leading consumer facing firms, however, showing more signs of strain according to the Financial Times investment in AI and data centers, though, as we know, is the big driver over there. Microsoft Alphabet meta are projecting total capital expenditures in 2025 of around US $370 billion for data center and infrastructure. And I was reading an analysis of this in Wide Magazine. They were [00:03:00] saying they’re funding it all from cash to these companies. ’cause they’re sitting on buffet levels of cash Tony Kynaston: Wow. Cameron: according to one estimate nearly. Tony Kynaston: Aren’t they just passing it? around to each other? He, Cameron: Well, in some cases, yeah, NVIDIA’s just handing it out and getting it back. According to one estimate, nearly all of us GDP growth in H 1 20 25 was accounted for by investment in data centers and software processing tech. Tony Kynaston: Wow. Cameron: Since chat, GPT launched in November 20, 22, 3 years ago, AI related stocks have accounted for 75% of s and p 500 returns and 80% of earnings growth according to JP Morgan. So that’s absolutely insane considering, you know, that’s, uh, half a dozen stocks, um, and open AI isn’t even listed. Tony Kynaston: Yeah. Cameron: Um, but you know, as we say, each [00:04:00] episode, uh, we are finding tons of value opportunities and, uh, there’s, there’s no, the

Episode Overview In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony dive into a deep analysis of American Airlines (AAL) — exploring its towering debt, its loyalty program goldmine, and its future prospects. They unpack how AAL’s Advantage points system, underpinned by a major new 10-year co-branded card deal with Citi, might serve as both ballast and buoy for a company flying through turbulence. Along the way, they riff on the airline industry’s cyclic nature, the debt-leverage paradox, and the Piotroski F-Score quirks that make AAL intriguing. Climate change, loyalty economics, Pratt & Whitney’s cursed engines, and the Buffett-era lessons on airline KPIs all make an appearance. After the financial deep-dive, the conversation drifts into lighter territory—Scorsese films, Gravity’s Rainbow, and Cameron’s bruising Kung Fu grading. ⸻ Timestamps & Key Topics 00:00 – 03:00 Market chatter: US–China trade mood, inflation data, and QAV portfolio updates03:00 – 06:00 Portfolio performance review: strong gains in Australian holdings vs. US pullback06:00 – 08:00 Introduction to this week’s pulled pork – AAL (American Airlines); early data glitch, initial impressions34:00 – 39:00 After-hours chat: Scorsese’s After Hours, King of Comedy, and the perils of late-night Pynchon, Wing Chun grading recap – Cameron’s ribs survive another day Transcription Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, episode 26. It’s a beautiful day. Tony in America, east Ballroom being torn down. President Trump’s Tony Kynaston: it Cameron: gonna meet with President Xi. They’re gonna do the greatest deal. You won’t believe how great this deal is gonna be. It’s gonna be the greatest deal of all time. It’ll last about a week. Then it’ll fall apart and there’ll be more tariffs. Uh, but meantime, everything’s going great. Market’s up. US market was up yesterday, supposedly on the, uh, joy that, uh, all the beef is behind them. Rare earth minerals will be flowing back into the United States. Tony Kynaston: From Cameron: We’ll see. Tony Kynaston: From Australia but um think I think the market’s up potentially more so on the fact that the inflation figures came in okay on Friday And Cameron: Did they? Tony Kynaston: So Cameron: Oh, okay. Tony Kynaston: that’s probably driving the Cameron: Interest [00:01:00] rates are being cut, Tony Kynaston: Uh I think the the central bank meets this week I’m not sure what day potentially Cameron: right. Tony Kynaston: I’m not sure Cameron: Ooh. Okay. Well, uh, before we get into my pulled pork for the week, I just thought I’d give an update on our portfolio and how things are going. Our US portfolio, which has been running, oh, here’s my, uh, smoothie delivery system. Thank you, dear. Uh, Tony Kynaston: Black belt smoothie delivery system brown belt Cameron: right. Yeah, the, uh, delivery, the delivery, the portfolio that’s been running since September, 2023. Uh, so a little over two years is up 57.6%, uh, versus the s and p 500, up 54.7%. So we’re beating the index just by a little bit, but that’s okay. That’s good. Um, the [00:02:00] pork situation, the pulled pork that I’ve done, uh, over the course of the show, I haven’t had a look to see how they are doing. Uh, where is that list? Tony Kynaston: that you were you were talking Cameron: Hmm. Tony Kynaston: portfolio’s performance and um for this financial year which in Australia’s only four months in cause we are 30th Cameron: Hmm. Tony Kynaston: June end of year Cameron: Hmm. Tony Kynaston: financial Cameron: Hmm. Tony Kynaston: And and that’s pretty good Do you recall those numbers Cameron: Yeah. Uh, well, I do, the Australian portfolio is up like 25% this financial year. Our financial year is, uh, from the beginning of July through to whatever we are now, end of October. I. For the calendar year, current calendar year, uh, our Australian portfolio is up 31% versus the benchmark. The index here, which is up [00:03:00] 14%. So a little bit sort of double the Australian market. So it’s going well year to date. Our US portfolio not doing so good. It’s down 16% versus the s and p 500, up 16, 17%. But as I say, every week, that’s because our portfolio was up so much. Towards the end of last year before Trump took over the White House, that it had a lot of gains and it’s come back. It’s not like the portfolio’s done badly, it’s just come back a lot from massive gains. At the end of last year, it was like Tony Kynaston: Must Cameron: incredibly inflated. Tony Kynaston: lots of work stocks in there Cameron: Well, it was Willis Lease Finance Company, which was the big one. It was up 300%. It’s now only up 175% since we bought it. I dunno how woke Willis Lease Finance Company is, but there you go. Tony Kynaston: Well it was a black Cameron: Um, Tony Kynaston: ste

**Episode Overview**In this episode of *QAV America* (Ep. 25), Cameron and Tony unpack a wild few weeks in the U.S. markets following Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats on China and the subsequent “birthday crash.” They discuss Australia’s surprising role in rare earths, portfolio moves including DAC and GTN, and new additions VSAT and RNR. The main feature is a deep dive into Cal-Maine Foods (ticker: CALM), America’s largest egg producer, exploring its scandal-ridden history, DOJ investigations, and surprising fundamentals. From “egg cartels” to F-scores, the duo balance analysis and absurdity, topping it off with film talk (Scorsese, Lynch) and kung fu bruises. — ### ⏱️ **Timestamps** **00:00** – Market chaos, Trump’s tariff tantrum, and rare earths politics**06:30** – Australia’s rare earth advantage and Gina Rinehart’s role**10:00** – Portfolio moves: selling DAC and GTN, buying VSAT and RNR **18:00** – Portfolio performance update and lessons from volatility**22:30** – *Pulled Pork:* Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) deep dive **52:00** – After Hours: Scorsese, *Taxi Driver*, Lynch’s *Elephant Man*, and kung fu chaos Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] to QAV America, Tony, episode 25. We’re recording this on the 21st of October, 2025. Well been a big couple of weeks in the US market. Tony, uh, Donald Trump. Crash the market again on my birthday, October 10th. It was his, uh, birthday present to me, which I appreciate. I’m wearing your birthday present to me. My fight club t-shirt, um, was good ’cause I had a broken nose and black eyes when you sent it to me. That was fun. Uh, but Donald Trump threatened massive increases in US tariffs on Chinese imports, following China’s announcement of stricter export controls on rare earth elements. And the market predictably crashed and then he said, uh, 10 days later, yesterday, today when meeting with our prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, our KAKA [00:01:00] Albo. For the Americans. That’s what we call our prime minister here. That’s the amount of deference you get as a Prime Minister in Australia. We call you Albo. He had a fantastic deal he’s gonna put together with China after a fantastic deal with Australia. I mean, I don’t know. I don’t know about you, but I think Albo was very happy. About the, uh, announcement of the rare earths deal from China, because it gave him a really good chance to have a really great meeting with President Trump. They had something that they both wanted to talk about, gave Trump a good positive news release. Our former Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, who’s the current, uh, ambassador, didn’t have as good a time with President Trump. He said, I don’t even know who you are and I don’t like you, but it’s all forgiven. He said, immediately afterwards. Tony Kynaston: Yeah, it’s, it’s, it’s, um, it’s hard not to like someone you don’t know, but I, I take. I take Cameron: I dunno. I, I, I saw, I, I had a look [00:02:00] at Kevin Rudd’s face and decided I didn’t look at him too. Tony Kynaston: he is. He’s Trump’s not alone is he. Cameron: No, no, no. Tony Kynaston: gotta say Australia saves the day again. we elbow’s ridden into the US with a mineral, a rare minerals agreement. You know, hold my beer. I got this. We got you want rare minerals. Let’s do a Cameron: yeah, Yeah. Tony Kynaston: yeah. Cameron: yeah. G Gina Reinhardt to the rescue. ’cause she controls a lot of what we have apparently. Uh, but just to put it in perspective. Australia is the fourth largest producer of rare earth minerals in the world at present on track to be number two, I believe. But China controls 70% of the global market and even an A larger share, 85 to 90% of the refining and processing capability globally. Tony Kynaston: which is important. Cameron: if we can dig it out the ground. We need to send it to China to get [00:03:00] processed probably. So you know they, Tony Kynaston: called Linus, which has got a plant to process rare earths minerals in, say the Philippines. I think somewhere in Southeast Asia. Cameron: Hmm, Tony Kynaston: easy. There’s been a few with the local government over it, but um, yeah, there is a fallback. Cameron: right. But anyway, the market recovered. Uh, it tar and, uh, everything’s back kind of to where it was pre the announcement. So the frothy market is back, and I did have to sell a couple of things though in that period, uh, out of our US portfolio, which is rare. So I had to sell DAC Dan aos, a Greek shipping company that I had owned. For quite a while and got to sell it at a profit too, but it broke our three point trend line sell trigger for new listeners. Uh, we try and hold [00:04:00] for as long as possible when we buy a company, but we do have a couple of sell triggers. One of them is a three point trend line sell. We’ll track it on a five year, month

Cameron and Tony kick off episode 24 of QAV America by discussing the U.S. government shutdown drama and comparing it to Australia’s last major political standoff under Whitlam in 1975. The conversation then turns to portfolio performance: while the Australian portfolios continue to outperform dramatically, the U.S. one has cooled a little since the Trump administration’s return. They dig into long-term value investing principles and how cycles of underperformance are normal. Cameron presents this week’s Pulled Pork on American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (AXL) — a classic, boring-but-profitable value stock that makes axles and driveline components for giants like GM, Stellantis, and Ford. They explore its fundamentals, merger news with Dowlais Group, and why its low valuation may make it attractive. The show wraps up with their trademark “after hours” chat: Tony’s social adventures, new music finds (Red Continent, Lyle Lovett, Sparks), Cameron’s film pick (Stalker by Tarkovsky), and their reflections on Asimov’s I, Robot, fascism, capitalism, and the short-termism of modern democracy. ⸻ ⏱️ Timestamps & Topics 00:00 — U.S. government shutdowns vs. Whitlam’s dismissal in Australia.03:00 — Portfolio performance: U.S. QAV fund up 62% since inception vs. S&P 500 up 51%.06:00 — Revisiting QAV philosophy: buying quality companies at a discount.07:00 — Historical perspective: patience through short-term underperformance.08:00 — Review of recent Pulled Porks10:00 — Portfolio holdings update11:00 — This week’s Pulled Pork: American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL) deep dive.30:00 — After Hours Transcription   [00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome back to QAV, the American Edition. Tony. I think this is episode 24. How are you doing? Tony Kynaston: I’m very well. Thank you. Nice and Cameron: I know that ’cause we, we just did our Australian edition. Yes. Very hot. Where I am. Very cool where you are. That’s Australia right now, depending on which part of the coast you’re in. Well, Tony, uh, talking about American news. Got a, they’ve got a, a shutdown. They’re funny. They have these shutdowns. We don’t really understand shutdowns. Last time we had a shutdown kind of thing in Australia. It was during the Whitlam government, wasn’t it? Tony Kynaston: November, 1975. Yep. Cameron: Yeah, it is. 50 years ago. The last time we had a government down, and it’s still talked about in Angry Voices to this very day. Tony Kynaston: We’ve had a couple of other examples, like a, ’cause they call it block supply here. So a government has to [00:01:00] be able to guarantee convince the Governor General, they can guarantee supply, which means that their budget will pass. So there’s been other cases where there’s been minority governments that can become topsy tur. Like the most recent case was in Tasmania when, uh. The minority government there had a vote of no confidence and the blocking of supply, and then they had to go to an election and they got reelected. Same problem. Yeah. Different time. Cameron: Well, the market, uh, you know, did stumble a little bit when they couldn’t, uh, prevent it, but yeah, thinner. Well, I don’t know. I mean, I have seen these sorts of things before. Not exactly with this level of urgency and animosity, I think, Tony Kynaston: always is that level of urgency and animosities happened what 11 times since Clinton or something’s been a lot it, [00:02:00] and it’s always brinkmanship. Cameron: yeah. Tony Kynaston: for the government workers who don’t get paid and they may not get paid under this current In the past they generally Cameron: Yeah, Tony Kynaston: they’ll get back pay. But that’s, there’s threats to withhold that. So we’ll see what happens. Cameron: I like other things that happen in the news, in the economy. We tend to ignore it and just stick to our knitting. Um, I do wanna. Talk about our portfolio performance, though our US portfolio, which for new listeners, we’ve been running well for new listeners. Uh, we’ve been doing a value investing podcast for six years in Australia. Tony’s been a value investor for 30 odd years. Oh, gangbusters. Absolutely. Our por, our Australian portfolios are all doing gangbusters, double market or better. Um, our US portfolio is doing okay. Not as well. It was, it was like three times market before the Trump administration came in. [00:03:00] It’s come back a little bit this year, but it’s only two years old and, you know, we work on five to 10 year timeframes for cycles to, uh, come and go. Um, I’ll start with the all time performance. So we started the US portfolio back. A little over two years ago, 19th of September, 2023. Since then, our portfolio is up 62% versus the s and p 500, up 51%. So we’re doing better than the s and p 500 over the long haul, but we’ve come back a l

In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony review the US portfolio’s performance in 2025, which—despite lagging this year—is still well ahead of the S&P 500 since inception. They reflect on past stock picks, before diving into this week’s “Pulled Pork”: Community Health Systems (NYSE: CYH). The discussion ranges from the messiness of America’s healthcare system to the company’s staggering debt load, CEO transition, scandals, and surprisingly strong cashflow. They weigh the risks (reimbursement uncertainty, capital raises, softening acuity mix) against the opportunities (deep undervaluation, strong operating cash generation, potential turnaround with new leadership). Along the way, they also touch on cultural differences in healthcare, Reddit debates about value investing, and how profit is often a “management decision,” while cashflow is the truer measure of resilience. ⸻ Timestamps • [00:02:00] Portfolio check-in – US portfolio performance vs. S&P 500. • [00:04:30] Revisiting past Pulled Pork picks • [00:08:00] Pulled Pork: Community Health Systems (CYH) – Company overview, history, scandals, and current challenges.   Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, episode 23. We’re recording this on the 30th of September, Australian time, 2025. Been a couple of weeks since we’ve talked about the United States. Tony, uh, I know that you’re an avid follower of the Wall Street Journal. Anything going on? Anything go happen in the United States in the last couple of weeks? I haven’t seen anything about the United States for a couple of weeks in the news. Nothing going on. Tony Kynaston: The contractor to service the UN elevators or escalators is up for That’s a bad end. I think Cameron: Well, the story there is that it was, uh, did you see that? Why the escalator stopped? Tony Kynaston: number of reasons why the escalators stopped, including a photographer pressed the stop button. Cameron: I read it was Trump’s photographer who was going backwards up at whose foot got caught in it and it jammed and stopped, and then the teleprompter was apparently run by the White House who screwed up the teleprompter. So it was, uh, [00:01:00] his own fails from his own team apparently, is what I read in the New York Times. The failing New York Times. Well, Tony, I thought I would, uh, that’s what he calls it, doesn’t he? I dunno if they’re failing or not. Um, probably large media. I wanted to, before we get into my Paul Pork this week, I just wanted to do a quick recap of how our US portfolio is doing and talk about what’s going on with some of the other companies that. We’ve covered over the last few months on this show how they’re doing. So let me bring up our US portfolio. As I’ve said many times before, it’s been an interesting year for our portfolio in the US It was. Doing three times the market by the end of last year, but then after Trump got elected, it has not had a good year.[00:02:00] So all time, our portfolio in the US has been running for just over two years now. I started at 20th of September, 2023. Over that period of time, it’s up 65% versus the s and p 500, which is up slightly less than. 50%, so it’s doing reasonably better than the s and p 500, but not double like we’re doing in the US and certainly not like triple like. By the end of 2024, a US portfolio was doing three times as good as the s and p 500. So it hasn’t had as good a year. 20, 25 year to date, it’s actually down 12% versus the s and p 500, up 13%. As we know, that’s how it goes. We go up, we go down, but generally we go up more than we go down over the long haul. Tony Kynaston: Great. just. Cameron: of the, uh. Tony Kynaston: can I jump in here? There was a, um, I know the show was [00:03:00] released in the US last week, which was a discussion of the QAV Bible and it mentioned that, um, long-term returns were 19.5% cagr, and that’s certainly the case back when we started QAV, but uh, it’s not the case now. So I just wanted to highlight that for people don’t wanna mislead them. That’s why we use the term double market. ’cause my returns are the markets or roughly twice the market still. Um, but the market’s moved since then, so, um, it’s, I just don’t wanna mislead people by putting, posting a number out there. Um, it’s more instructive to look at the long term, um, and to expect to get something like twice the index if you, um, successfully according to what I’ve been doing for a long time. Cameron: So I’m just, uh, looking up my list of Paul Porks that I’ve done over the last six months. Can’t remember who I did in episode 21. I. [00:04:00] Um, oh, MEOH. Yeah, right. I don’t have an update on MEOH, but for the rest, uh, like I was saying to you on our last Australian show, um, when I’m

We discuss the latest U.S. economic slowdown, then pivot to a detailed portfolio update (US portfolio vs S&P 500). After a rapid recap of recent stock picks — from ZEPP to ZIM — we dive into a comprehensive analysis of Methanex (MEOH): its global footprint, methanol market dynamics, e-methanol shipping prospects, the Geismar 3 outage governance risk, and key valuation metrics. Timestamps • 00:03:00 – US Portfolio Update: +7.6% in 30 days vs S&P 500 +1.65%; since inception +70.4% vs S&P 500 +46% • 00:06:00 – Deep Dive on Methanex (MEOH) Transcription   [00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America, Tony. This is episode 21. How are you? Tony Kynaston: I am well, thank you. Father’s Day celebrated Cameron: good. Tony Kynaston: Hope everyone out there did the same. Cameron: No, they’re Americans, Tony, they celebrate Father’s Day in a completely different time of year to us. Mm. Tony Kynaston: did. Anyway. I was gonna segue that into hope they all got their small packages, but, um, can’t Cameron: They’re small packages, Tony Kynaston: Day gifts from Australia, which have been held up. Cameron: Oh, that’s a reference to the fact that Australia Post has stopped shipping packages to the United States because of the de minimis ch rule changes. Uh, we were just talking on our Australian podcast about the, uh, state of the economy in the US second lot of weak jobs, job numbers has just come through, and as I pointed out in the last episode, all of the reasons that we’ve been [00:01:00] talking about. Over the last, uh, six months or so on this show, according to the failing New York Times, as the president likes to refer to it, analysts offered a variety of explanations for the slowdown the president’s tariffs on nearly all imports have driven up, driven up costs for companies and prices for consumers. Mr. Trump’s immigration crackdown has made it harder for many businesses to find workers while, while simultaneously reducing the need for them because they now have fewer customers. The federal government has cut jobs directly and canceled grants and contracts that have bled into the private sector. The uncertainty surrounding Mr. Trump’s ever shifting policies has made corporate executives more cautious about hiring and investing. So. You know, who would’ve guessed that, uh, putting Donald Trump back in the White House would lead to chaos and uncertainty? Tony? No, certainly not me. I, that was not on my bingo list. I thought, here’s a man who’s calm and [00:02:00] most stable genius I’ve ever seen. So it’s deeply surprising to me. What about you? Tony Kynaston: Yeah, surprising, surprising to all the Republicans, I would’ve thought. Who, uh, Um, yeah, but I, well first of all, I didn’t access the New York Times ’cause it’s a paywall and I’m not gonna sign up to the New York Times. with the Wall Street Journal, Cameron: What do they have to say? Tony Kynaston: probably the Cameron: Right? Tony Kynaston: Reprinted, uh, anyway. Cameron: uh, as I, I’m gonna do a pulled pork this week on an interesting company, meo. They’re a, uh, methanol, well, they’re the 800 pound gorilla in the methanol space, which is interesting ’cause I know or new before this. Nothing about methanol. But before I do that, I just want to. Give a portfolio, uh, performance update. Our US portfolio is up about 7.6% in the last 30 days versus the s and p 500, which is up [00:03:00] 1.65%. Uh, since inception, which is, uh, September, 2023, our US portfolio is up 70. 4% versus the s and p 500, up 46%. Year to date though we are still struggling. We’re down 7.2% year to date calendar, year to date versus 10.43 for the s and p because of some of Mr. Trump’s policies that tanked our portfolio at the beginning of the year, but over a one year timeframe. We are up 31% versus 20% for the s and p 500. So despite having a rough start to the year, uh, we’re still looking pretty. Um, I, I’ll also just, uh, mention the companies that I’ve done pulled Porks on over the last, uh, 20 episodes on this show. Um. Zap in order of best stories, [00:04:00] zap the smart Chinese smartwatch company that I covered on the 11th of July is now up 1511% since then. It’s just not slowing down. It is down 4% today. Um, but it’s just not slowing down. Gray media is up 40%. Titan machinery is up 11% since we talked about it. Precision Drilling is up 18%. Orx Corporation up 27 IHS holding up 37. Ford is up eight since we talked about it. Chemex is up, uh, 68%. Dan aos is up 16 Canadian. Imperial Bank of Commerce is up 23%. Jackson Financial, up 16%. Costco’s up five. Sasol is up 43% since I talked about it in July. I said they were a dirty, dirty, dirty business they were in and they’re up 43%. Bausch Health Companies is up [00:05:00] 16%. Seneca Foods is up nine. Kim

In this episode, Cameron and Tony dive into the turbulent world of tariffs, the performance of the QAV US portfolio, and Cameron’s “Pulled Pork” deep dive on Brazilian pulp and paper giant Suzano (SUZ). The discussion ranges from Trump’s tariffs being declared illegal, to the surprising success of companies like ZEPP (the smartwatch maker), Gray Media, and others. Cameron traces Suzano’s roots back to its immigrant founder, explores its dominance in eucalyptus pulp production, highlights both its financial strengths and ESG controversies, and weighs up risks like Brazil’s economic volatility and cyclical pulp prices. It’s a mix of global politics, investing fundamentals, and a surprising education in “fluff pulp.” ⸻ Timestamps & Stocks • [00:00:30] Trump’s tariffs ruled illegal — implications for markets. • [00:02:30] QAV US portfolio update: performance vs. S&P 500. • [00:04:15] Reviewing past Pulled Pork picks: • [00:07:30] Pulled Pork: Suzano (SUZ) — Brazil’s pulp and paper giant. Transcription   [00:00:00] Cameron: Tony, I’m the chillest person on the planet. Welcome to QAV America. Tony. Episode 20. Uh, Tony’s just laughing Tony Kynaston: Mm. Cameron: ”cause I said I don’t have any aggression. Tony Kynaston: person on the planet, Cameron: I am the chillest person on the planet. You should know that by now, Tony. Um, uh, well, we’ve, we’re just talking about this in a. Tony Kynaston: I post, uh, democratic, things on Facebook. Cameron: You doing your, uh, David Markin impression? Um, Tony Kynaston: I did Cameron: uh, we just, Tony Kynaston: when you started talking politics. Cameron: yeah. We talked, uh, on our Australian show just now about Donald Trump’s tariffs being declared illegal by a federal appeals court. Tony Kynaston: Has Cameron: so no. Well, no, but he, he reckons it’s gonna go to the Supreme Court, but it just fascinates me when governments. Do [00:01:00] things that they know are illegal. I mean, he must have had somebody in it. I know his administration isn’t necessarily stacked with the finest and the brightest minds, uh, available, but they must have known that, well, we can’t really do this. Let alone the big card that said, these are reciprocal tariffs when they were just made up numbers. But Tony Kynaston: Oh, I, Cameron: must have known that it wasn’t legal. Tony Kynaston: about that. I think the advice, the legal advice was if you declare an emergency, then you have the power to implement. Well, the executive has the power to implement tariffs and that’s Cameron: courts are saying no, Tony Kynaston: Well, this, the and the courts are saying no. which means the underlying court said yes. it’ll go to the Supreme Court and I’d Cameron: No, the first court said, no. The first court, the first court said it was illegal. The Trump administration appealed the first court’s ruling, and the apple at court said no. It was the second time it was declared illegal.[00:02:00] Tony Kynaston: Pesky Cameron: anyway, we’ve talked a lot about how, you know, and I’ll talk about it again when I do my Paul pork today, how it’s, you know, just throwing everything into disarray and as it turns out, is illegal in the first place. And the Supreme Court may or may not side, but the president probably will. ’cause they seem to be pretty favorable towards letting him do whatever the hell he wants to do. But if they say no, who knows what happens next. But um. Tony Kynaston: I will Anyway. it Cameron: Yeah, Tony Kynaston: in the first place. Cameron: I guess, and, and you’ll probably get Congress to back it, so yes. Should have been doing that all along. Before I get into my pulpo for the week, Tony, just do an update on our US portfolio. Uh, in the last 30 days, our US portfolio is up 12.5% versus the s and p 500, which is up 3.5%. Year to date though, our portfolio is down 7.5% versus the s and p. That’s up nearly 10%. But [00:03:00] as I pointed out in our last show, that’s because at the end of last year, our portfolio was up. Uh, I don’t know. Crazy amount. Like 80%. Tony Kynaston: 80%. Yeah. Cameron: 80%. And then, uh, the, at the beginning of this year, when Trump’s Liberation Day, et cetera happened, a lot of our stocks gave up a lot of the gains that they’d had. Um, all time though, going back to when we started this portfolio in September, 2023. So two years ago we will be in a couple of weeks. Our portfolio is up 73% versus the s and p 500, up 45%. So still doing quite well. I also wanted to update you on the performance of the pulled porks that I have done, uh, since we started this show. Uh, just because they’re not all reflected, well, most of them aren’t reflected in our [00:04:00] portfolio. Um, of course the big one being, uh, Zep, the Chinese smartwatch company, which I did on the 11th of July when they were trading at $