QAV America (free feed)

Episode Overview This episode dives into Pacific Gas & Electric (NYSE: PCG) and its strange mix of monopoly power, criminal convictions, billions in liabilities, climate exposure, and a CEO who says she’s “leading with love.” Cameron takes us through PG&E’s century-old origins, deadly infrastructure failures like the Camp Fire manslaughter convictions, the bizarre history of repeat explosions and corruption, and the unusual financial structure that keeps the company alive despite $58B in debt. Tony questions whether a guaranteed utility should even be privately owned, compares it to safer options like Berkshire Hathaway’s utilities, and wonders why we’d touch a business known for burning down half a state. Despite the horrors, PG&E lands on the QAV buy list due to cheap cashflow valuation, a protected regulated monopoly, and a massive turnaround driven by mandated wildfire-prevention spending and government-backed debt. Timestamps 00:00–02:00 US Portfolio performance update General markets02:00–03:30 MODG rises after last week’s pick MODG (TopGolf Callaway)03:30–04:30 Recent picks performance rundown 05:30–06:30 AU market outperforming “trash” theme Australian context06:30–41:00 Feature Deep Dive: Pacific Gas & Electric PCG41:00–47:00 After-hours: Stalker, House of Guinness, Slow Horses Transcription   Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America. Tony, I would ask how you’re doing, but I know because we just did our Australian podcast and you’re doing great. Let me answer that question for you. Tony Kynaston: I’m doing great. My portfolio is doing great. Everything’s great. Cameron: Everything’s great. Our US portfolio, Tony, I’m just bringing it up on the screen here all time. So it’s been running since, uh, September, 2023 is up 55% versus the benchmark I use the s and p 500, which is up 50%. So we’re doing 10% better than the benchmark, 55% over. A little more than two years. It’s not bad. Pretty happy with that. Tony Kynaston: I agree. Cameron: Pretty good. Tony Kynaston: We normally say it’s up 5% though, so usually you take one away from the other rather than make a percentage of a percentage. Cameron: [00:01:00] Okay. Tony Kynaston: better, but Cameron: But if we’re saying double market, then that’s a hundred percent. Isn’t that? How do you say that? If we’re saying double market. Tony Kynaston: Well, double market’s just double market. Cameron: It is double Tony Kynaston: market. Yeah. Cameron: twice as good. Okay. Um, some of the, uh. Tony Kynaston: raise that with me and said, are we better off saying we do five to 10% better than the market? ’cause in Australia, I guess in the US as well, the long term’s, about 10%. So, um, I said, yes, if the market does 10%, it’s right. But if it’s doing, if it’s up as in the America, America, it’s, um, it’s wrong. Cameron: Yeah. Right. Tony Kynaston: Mm-hmm. Cameron: Some of the, uh, just looking at the last, uh, let’s say the last 30 days in our portfolio, our portfolio is beating the index in the last 30 days. Uh, not by a huge amount, but by, well actually I guess judging by [00:02:00] the way you are rating it, s and p is up 0.13% in the last 30 days. Our portfolio is up 0.61%, so that’s five. Five times better. That’s what I was gonna say. Yeah. Uh, the, Tony Kynaston: I like the core skill of marketing. Okay. It’s great. Cameron: yeah. Uh, unfortunately stocked doesn’t tell me how the individual stocks have performed in a 30 day period. It just gives me it from the get go. But, uh, I did want to just look at our, uh. Performance of some of the other stocks that we’ve, uh, talked about over the, uh, last six months or so. We’ve been doing the show, see how they’re all doing. You’ll be happy to know that the company that we talked about last week, top Golf, Callaway Brands, [00:03:00] M-O-D-G-A-K-A, modern golfers up 3% since we talked about it. Tony Kynaston: fantastic. Cameron: Um, some of the others aren’t. Tony Kynaston: little putt, Cameron: Yeah, that was us. That was all our putt. Yeah, that was, that was all our putt. Yeah. Tony Kynaston: another Cameron: IS Tony Kynaston: that I can get excited about? Do you have a Cameron: uh, no, I’ve got some horrifying, horrible stories to talk about this week, but, uh, it should be fun. I wanna admit, I saw a video the other day yesterday of a golf robot that got a hole in one. Have you seen that? Tony Kynaston: No. Cameron: I thought that’s the next evolution. I know for your 60th birthday, we got you a robot, uh, caddy. Tony Kynaston: Catty. Cameron: Uh, we’re gonna get you a golf robot for your 70th birthday. You don’t have to do anything now. You just go out there, plays golf for you. It’ll be fantastic. You’ll love it. Uh, so American Airlines we talked about a coupl

Overview In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony dig into the state of the U.S. market, exploring how AI investment is distorting capital flows, weakening job markets, and reshaping traditional sectors. They discuss how “the Great Freeze” in hiring and the surge in data-centre spending are reshaping the economy. Then Cameron serves up a Pulled Pork deep dive on MODG (Topgolf Callaway Brands)—a company blending golf, entertainment, and retail that’s now splitting itself apart to “unlock value.” Tony reflects on golf’s pandemic-era revival, the engineering of the Big Bertha, and why Callaway’s merger with Topgolf sent its share price into the rough. They unpack tariffs, impairments, and the business logic behind spinning off Topgolf, ending with a lively riff on humanoid robots, golf robots, and even robot jockeys. ⸻ Timestamps [00:00 – 02:00] Portfolio update – U.S. fund down ~2.5 % vs S&P neutral; long-term performance still ahead.[02:00 – 04:00] AI-driven GDP growth — Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta pouring US $370 B into data centres.[05:00 – 08:00] Labor market weakness — “The Great Freeze” as firms delay hiring for AI.[09:00 – 11:00] Humanoid robotics — Tesla Optimus, Xpeng Iron, and China’s robot surge.[11:00 – 12:00] Fed policy, tariffs, and inflation risk.[12:00 – 48:00] Pulled Pork: MODG – Topgolf Callaway Brands Transcription   Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, episode 27. Tony Kynaston: Wow, that’s gone fast. Cameron: it’s been a couple of weeks since we did a US show. Didn’t have time to do one last week, but, I’ll just start with a bit of a portfolio update, get into some news, and then I’m gonna do a, a special deep dive pulled pork that I prepared just for you. Tony went way down the list to find this one for you. Tony Kynaston: forward to it. Cameron: The portfolio has not had a good 30 days. Our US portfolio, it’s down 6% in the last 30 days versus the s and p 500, which is pretty much neutral in the last 30 days. So it hasn’t been doing great too. Um, hold on. Did I say how long it’s down? That’s, let me see what, no. Down, down two and a half percent, not 6%. Two and a half percent in the last 30 days. Um. So it’s hasn’t been, uh, a great, uh, period for us still tariffs. I think that [00:01:00] just the general US economy is not boating well for our portfolio over there. But that said again, if you look at, uh, since inception, which is. Just a little bit over two years. September 23, we’re tracking at 53% return versus the s and p 551%. So we’re still beating the index over the last couple of years, but, uh, the year to date we’re down 18% versus the s and p 500, up 14%. So it has been a rough calendar year for our portfolio. For all the reasons I mentioned before, but some of the stocks are still, I mean, everything’s doing quite well. I mean, everything’s up, everything’s doing well, just not as well as it was doing. So Tony Kynaston: peak. Cameron: nothing to complain. Yeah, yeah. Like me, um, Tony Kynaston: Best days are ahead of you Can. Cameron: uh, [00:02:00] I keep telling myself that Tony, uh, listen. It been interesting a couple of weeks in the US market. Corporate earnings are surprisingly strong for the third quarter of 2025. Median earnings for the Russell 3000 Index rose about 11% compared to a year ago. Six of the 11 sectors in the s and p 500 reported positive earnings growth up from just two sectors. In the prior quarter. Big tech industrial energy have been leading consumer facing firms, however, showing more signs of strain according to the Financial Times investment in AI and data centers, though, as we know, is the big driver over there. Microsoft Alphabet meta are projecting total capital expenditures in 2025 of around US $370 billion for data center and infrastructure. And I was reading an analysis of this in Wide Magazine. They were [00:03:00] saying they’re funding it all from cash to these companies. ’cause they’re sitting on buffet levels of cash Tony Kynaston: Wow. Cameron: according to one estimate nearly. Tony Kynaston: Aren’t they just passing it? around to each other? He, Cameron: Well, in some cases, yeah, NVIDIA’s just handing it out and getting it back. According to one estimate, nearly all of us GDP growth in H 1 20 25 was accounted for by investment in data centers and software processing tech. Tony Kynaston: Wow. Cameron: Since chat, GPT launched in November 20, 22, 3 years ago, AI related stocks have accounted for 75% of s and p 500 returns and 80% of earnings growth according to JP Morgan. So that’s absolutely insane considering, you know, that’s, uh, half a dozen stocks, um, and open AI isn’t even listed. Tony Kynaston: Yeah. Cameron: Um, but you know, as we say, each [00:04:00] episode, uh, we are finding tons of value opportunities and, uh, there’s, there’s no, the

Episode Overview In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony dive into a deep analysis of American Airlines (AAL) — exploring its towering debt, its loyalty program goldmine, and its future prospects. They unpack how AAL’s Advantage points system, underpinned by a major new 10-year co-branded card deal with Citi, might serve as both ballast and buoy for a company flying through turbulence. Along the way, they riff on the airline industry’s cyclic nature, the debt-leverage paradox, and the Piotroski F-Score quirks that make AAL intriguing. Climate change, loyalty economics, Pratt & Whitney’s cursed engines, and the Buffett-era lessons on airline KPIs all make an appearance. After the financial deep-dive, the conversation drifts into lighter territory—Scorsese films, Gravity’s Rainbow, and Cameron’s bruising Kung Fu grading. ⸻ Timestamps & Key Topics 00:00 – 03:00 Market chatter: US–China trade mood, inflation data, and QAV portfolio updates03:00 – 06:00 Portfolio performance review: strong gains in Australian holdings vs. US pullback06:00 – 08:00 Introduction to this week’s pulled pork – AAL (American Airlines); early data glitch, initial impressions34:00 – 39:00 After-hours chat: Scorsese’s After Hours, King of Comedy, and the perils of late-night Pynchon, Wing Chun grading recap – Cameron’s ribs survive another day Transcription Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, episode 26. It’s a beautiful day. Tony in America, east Ballroom being torn down. President Trump’s Tony Kynaston: it Cameron: gonna meet with President Xi. They’re gonna do the greatest deal. You won’t believe how great this deal is gonna be. It’s gonna be the greatest deal of all time. It’ll last about a week. Then it’ll fall apart and there’ll be more tariffs. Uh, but meantime, everything’s going great. Market’s up. US market was up yesterday, supposedly on the, uh, joy that, uh, all the beef is behind them. Rare earth minerals will be flowing back into the United States. Tony Kynaston: From Cameron: We’ll see. Tony Kynaston: From Australia but um think I think the market’s up potentially more so on the fact that the inflation figures came in okay on Friday And Cameron: Did they? Tony Kynaston: So Cameron: Oh, okay. Tony Kynaston: that’s probably driving the Cameron: Interest [00:01:00] rates are being cut, Tony Kynaston: Uh I think the the central bank meets this week I’m not sure what day potentially Cameron: right. Tony Kynaston: I’m not sure Cameron: Ooh. Okay. Well, uh, before we get into my pulled pork for the week, I just thought I’d give an update on our portfolio and how things are going. Our US portfolio, which has been running, oh, here’s my, uh, smoothie delivery system. Thank you, dear. Uh, Tony Kynaston: Black belt smoothie delivery system brown belt Cameron: right. Yeah, the, uh, delivery, the delivery, the portfolio that’s been running since September, 2023. Uh, so a little over two years is up 57.6%, uh, versus the s and p 500, up 54.7%. So we’re beating the index just by a little bit, but that’s okay. That’s good. Um, the [00:02:00] pork situation, the pulled pork that I’ve done, uh, over the course of the show, I haven’t had a look to see how they are doing. Uh, where is that list? Tony Kynaston: that you were you were talking Cameron: Hmm. Tony Kynaston: portfolio’s performance and um for this financial year which in Australia’s only four months in cause we are 30th Cameron: Hmm. Tony Kynaston: June end of year Cameron: Hmm. Tony Kynaston: financial Cameron: Hmm. Tony Kynaston: And and that’s pretty good Do you recall those numbers Cameron: Yeah. Uh, well, I do, the Australian portfolio is up like 25% this financial year. Our financial year is, uh, from the beginning of July through to whatever we are now, end of October. I. For the calendar year, current calendar year, uh, our Australian portfolio is up 31% versus the benchmark. The index here, which is up [00:03:00] 14%. So a little bit sort of double the Australian market. So it’s going well year to date. Our US portfolio not doing so good. It’s down 16% versus the s and p 500, up 16, 17%. But as I say, every week, that’s because our portfolio was up so much. Towards the end of last year before Trump took over the White House, that it had a lot of gains and it’s come back. It’s not like the portfolio’s done badly, it’s just come back a lot from massive gains. At the end of last year, it was like Tony Kynaston: Must Cameron: incredibly inflated. Tony Kynaston: lots of work stocks in there Cameron: Well, it was Willis Lease Finance Company, which was the big one. It was up 300%. It’s now only up 175% since we bought it. I dunno how woke Willis Lease Finance Company is, but there you go. Tony Kynaston: Well it was a black Cameron: Um, Tony Kynaston: ste

**Episode Overview**In this episode of *QAV America* (Ep. 25), Cameron and Tony unpack a wild few weeks in the U.S. markets following Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats on China and the subsequent “birthday crash.” They discuss Australia’s surprising role in rare earths, portfolio moves including DAC and GTN, and new additions VSAT and RNR. The main feature is a deep dive into Cal-Maine Foods (ticker: CALM), America’s largest egg producer, exploring its scandal-ridden history, DOJ investigations, and surprising fundamentals. From “egg cartels” to F-scores, the duo balance analysis and absurdity, topping it off with film talk (Scorsese, Lynch) and kung fu bruises. — ### ⏱️ **Timestamps** **00:00** – Market chaos, Trump’s tariff tantrum, and rare earths politics**06:30** – Australia’s rare earth advantage and Gina Rinehart’s role**10:00** – Portfolio moves: selling DAC and GTN, buying VSAT and RNR **18:00** – Portfolio performance update and lessons from volatility**22:30** – *Pulled Pork:* Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) deep dive **52:00** – After Hours: Scorsese, *Taxi Driver*, Lynch’s *Elephant Man*, and kung fu chaos Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] to QAV America, Tony, episode 25. We’re recording this on the 21st of October, 2025. Well been a big couple of weeks in the US market. Tony, uh, Donald Trump. Crash the market again on my birthday, October 10th. It was his, uh, birthday present to me, which I appreciate. I’m wearing your birthday present to me. My fight club t-shirt, um, was good ’cause I had a broken nose and black eyes when you sent it to me. That was fun. Uh, but Donald Trump threatened massive increases in US tariffs on Chinese imports, following China’s announcement of stricter export controls on rare earth elements. And the market predictably crashed and then he said, uh, 10 days later, yesterday, today when meeting with our prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, our KAKA [00:01:00] Albo. For the Americans. That’s what we call our prime minister here. That’s the amount of deference you get as a Prime Minister in Australia. We call you Albo. He had a fantastic deal he’s gonna put together with China after a fantastic deal with Australia. I mean, I don’t know. I don’t know about you, but I think Albo was very happy. About the, uh, announcement of the rare earths deal from China, because it gave him a really good chance to have a really great meeting with President Trump. They had something that they both wanted to talk about, gave Trump a good positive news release. Our former Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, who’s the current, uh, ambassador, didn’t have as good a time with President Trump. He said, I don’t even know who you are and I don’t like you, but it’s all forgiven. He said, immediately afterwards. Tony Kynaston: Yeah, it’s, it’s, it’s, um, it’s hard not to like someone you don’t know, but I, I take. I take Cameron: I dunno. I, I, I saw, I, I had a look [00:02:00] at Kevin Rudd’s face and decided I didn’t look at him too. Tony Kynaston: he is. He’s Trump’s not alone is he. Cameron: No, no, no. Tony Kynaston: gotta say Australia saves the day again. we elbow’s ridden into the US with a mineral, a rare minerals agreement. You know, hold my beer. I got this. We got you want rare minerals. Let’s do a Cameron: yeah, Yeah. Tony Kynaston: yeah. Cameron: yeah. G Gina Reinhardt to the rescue. ’cause she controls a lot of what we have apparently. Uh, but just to put it in perspective. Australia is the fourth largest producer of rare earth minerals in the world at present on track to be number two, I believe. But China controls 70% of the global market and even an A larger share, 85 to 90% of the refining and processing capability globally. Tony Kynaston: which is important. Cameron: if we can dig it out the ground. We need to send it to China to get [00:03:00] processed probably. So you know they, Tony Kynaston: called Linus, which has got a plant to process rare earths minerals in, say the Philippines. I think somewhere in Southeast Asia. Cameron: Hmm, Tony Kynaston: easy. There’s been a few with the local government over it, but um, yeah, there is a fallback. Cameron: right. But anyway, the market recovered. Uh, it tar and, uh, everything’s back kind of to where it was pre the announcement. So the frothy market is back, and I did have to sell a couple of things though in that period, uh, out of our US portfolio, which is rare. So I had to sell DAC Dan aos, a Greek shipping company that I had owned. For quite a while and got to sell it at a profit too, but it broke our three point trend line sell trigger for new listeners. Uh, we try and hold [00:04:00] for as long as possible when we buy a company, but we do have a couple of sell triggers. One of them is a three point trend line sell. We’ll track it on a five year, month

Cameron and Tony kick off episode 24 of QAV America by discussing the U.S. government shutdown drama and comparing it to Australia’s last major political standoff under Whitlam in 1975. The conversation then turns to portfolio performance: while the Australian portfolios continue to outperform dramatically, the U.S. one has cooled a little since the Trump administration’s return. They dig into long-term value investing principles and how cycles of underperformance are normal. Cameron presents this week’s Pulled Pork on American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (AXL) — a classic, boring-but-profitable value stock that makes axles and driveline components for giants like GM, Stellantis, and Ford. They explore its fundamentals, merger news with Dowlais Group, and why its low valuation may make it attractive. The show wraps up with their trademark “after hours” chat: Tony’s social adventures, new music finds (Red Continent, Lyle Lovett, Sparks), Cameron’s film pick (Stalker by Tarkovsky), and their reflections on Asimov’s I, Robot, fascism, capitalism, and the short-termism of modern democracy. ⸻ ⏱️ Timestamps & Topics 00:00 — U.S. government shutdowns vs. Whitlam’s dismissal in Australia.03:00 — Portfolio performance: U.S. QAV fund up 62% since inception vs. S&P 500 up 51%.06:00 — Revisiting QAV philosophy: buying quality companies at a discount.07:00 — Historical perspective: patience through short-term underperformance.08:00 — Review of recent Pulled Porks10:00 — Portfolio holdings update11:00 — This week’s Pulled Pork: American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL) deep dive.30:00 — After Hours Transcription   [00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome back to QAV, the American Edition. Tony. I think this is episode 24. How are you doing? Tony Kynaston: I’m very well. Thank you. Nice and Cameron: I know that ’cause we, we just did our Australian edition. Yes. Very hot. Where I am. Very cool where you are. That’s Australia right now, depending on which part of the coast you’re in. Well, Tony, uh, talking about American news. Got a, they’ve got a, a shutdown. They’re funny. They have these shutdowns. We don’t really understand shutdowns. Last time we had a shutdown kind of thing in Australia. It was during the Whitlam government, wasn’t it? Tony Kynaston: November, 1975. Yep. Cameron: Yeah, it is. 50 years ago. The last time we had a government down, and it’s still talked about in Angry Voices to this very day. Tony Kynaston: We’ve had a couple of other examples, like a, ’cause they call it block supply here. So a government has to [00:01:00] be able to guarantee convince the Governor General, they can guarantee supply, which means that their budget will pass. So there’s been other cases where there’s been minority governments that can become topsy tur. Like the most recent case was in Tasmania when, uh. The minority government there had a vote of no confidence and the blocking of supply, and then they had to go to an election and they got reelected. Same problem. Yeah. Different time. Cameron: Well, the market, uh, you know, did stumble a little bit when they couldn’t, uh, prevent it, but yeah, thinner. Well, I don’t know. I mean, I have seen these sorts of things before. Not exactly with this level of urgency and animosity, I think, Tony Kynaston: always is that level of urgency and animosities happened what 11 times since Clinton or something’s been a lot it, [00:02:00] and it’s always brinkmanship. Cameron: yeah. Tony Kynaston: for the government workers who don’t get paid and they may not get paid under this current In the past they generally Cameron: Yeah, Tony Kynaston: they’ll get back pay. But that’s, there’s threats to withhold that. So we’ll see what happens. Cameron: I like other things that happen in the news, in the economy. We tend to ignore it and just stick to our knitting. Um, I do wanna. Talk about our portfolio performance, though our US portfolio, which for new listeners, we’ve been running well for new listeners. Uh, we’ve been doing a value investing podcast for six years in Australia. Tony’s been a value investor for 30 odd years. Oh, gangbusters. Absolutely. Our por, our Australian portfolios are all doing gangbusters, double market or better. Um, our US portfolio is doing okay. Not as well. It was, it was like three times market before the Trump administration came in. [00:03:00] It’s come back a little bit this year, but it’s only two years old and, you know, we work on five to 10 year timeframes for cycles to, uh, come and go. Um, I’ll start with the all time performance. So we started the US portfolio back. A little over two years ago, 19th of September, 2023. Since then, our portfolio is up 62% versus the s and p 500, up 51%. So we’re doing better than the s and p 500 over the long haul, but we’ve come back a l

In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony review the US portfolio’s performance in 2025, which—despite lagging this year—is still well ahead of the S&P 500 since inception. They reflect on past stock picks, before diving into this week’s “Pulled Pork”: Community Health Systems (NYSE: CYH). The discussion ranges from the messiness of America’s healthcare system to the company’s staggering debt load, CEO transition, scandals, and surprisingly strong cashflow. They weigh the risks (reimbursement uncertainty, capital raises, softening acuity mix) against the opportunities (deep undervaluation, strong operating cash generation, potential turnaround with new leadership). Along the way, they also touch on cultural differences in healthcare, Reddit debates about value investing, and how profit is often a “management decision,” while cashflow is the truer measure of resilience. ⸻ Timestamps • [00:02:00] Portfolio check-in – US portfolio performance vs. S&P 500. • [00:04:30] Revisiting past Pulled Pork picks • [00:08:00] Pulled Pork: Community Health Systems (CYH) – Company overview, history, scandals, and current challenges.   Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, episode 23. We’re recording this on the 30th of September, Australian time, 2025. Been a couple of weeks since we’ve talked about the United States. Tony, uh, I know that you’re an avid follower of the Wall Street Journal. Anything going on? Anything go happen in the United States in the last couple of weeks? I haven’t seen anything about the United States for a couple of weeks in the news. Nothing going on. Tony Kynaston: The contractor to service the UN elevators or escalators is up for That’s a bad end. I think Cameron: Well, the story there is that it was, uh, did you see that? Why the escalator stopped? Tony Kynaston: number of reasons why the escalators stopped, including a photographer pressed the stop button. Cameron: I read it was Trump’s photographer who was going backwards up at whose foot got caught in it and it jammed and stopped, and then the teleprompter was apparently run by the White House who screwed up the teleprompter. So it was, uh, [00:01:00] his own fails from his own team apparently, is what I read in the New York Times. The failing New York Times. Well, Tony, I thought I would, uh, that’s what he calls it, doesn’t he? I dunno if they’re failing or not. Um, probably large media. I wanted to, before we get into my Paul Pork this week, I just wanted to do a quick recap of how our US portfolio is doing and talk about what’s going on with some of the other companies that. We’ve covered over the last few months on this show how they’re doing. So let me bring up our US portfolio. As I’ve said many times before, it’s been an interesting year for our portfolio in the US It was. Doing three times the market by the end of last year, but then after Trump got elected, it has not had a good year.[00:02:00] So all time, our portfolio in the US has been running for just over two years now. I started at 20th of September, 2023. Over that period of time, it’s up 65% versus the s and p 500, which is up slightly less than. 50%, so it’s doing reasonably better than the s and p 500, but not double like we’re doing in the US and certainly not like triple like. By the end of 2024, a US portfolio was doing three times as good as the s and p 500. So it hasn’t had as good a year. 20, 25 year to date, it’s actually down 12% versus the s and p 500, up 13%. As we know, that’s how it goes. We go up, we go down, but generally we go up more than we go down over the long haul. Tony Kynaston: Great. just. Cameron: of the, uh. Tony Kynaston: can I jump in here? There was a, um, I know the show was [00:03:00] released in the US last week, which was a discussion of the QAV Bible and it mentioned that, um, long-term returns were 19.5% cagr, and that’s certainly the case back when we started QAV, but uh, it’s not the case now. So I just wanted to highlight that for people don’t wanna mislead them. That’s why we use the term double market. ’cause my returns are the markets or roughly twice the market still. Um, but the market’s moved since then, so, um, it’s, I just don’t wanna mislead people by putting, posting a number out there. Um, it’s more instructive to look at the long term, um, and to expect to get something like twice the index if you, um, successfully according to what I’ve been doing for a long time. Cameron: So I’m just, uh, looking up my list of Paul Porks that I’ve done over the last six months. Can’t remember who I did in episode 21. I. [00:04:00] Um, oh, MEOH. Yeah, right. I don’t have an update on MEOH, but for the rest, uh, like I was saying to you on our last Australian show, um, when I’m

We discuss the latest U.S. economic slowdown, then pivot to a detailed portfolio update (US portfolio vs S&P 500). After a rapid recap of recent stock picks — from ZEPP to ZIM — we dive into a comprehensive analysis of Methanex (MEOH): its global footprint, methanol market dynamics, e-methanol shipping prospects, the Geismar 3 outage governance risk, and key valuation metrics. Timestamps • 00:03:00 – US Portfolio Update: +7.6% in 30 days vs S&P 500 +1.65%; since inception +70.4% vs S&P 500 +46% • 00:06:00 – Deep Dive on Methanex (MEOH) Transcription   [00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America, Tony. This is episode 21. How are you? Tony Kynaston: I am well, thank you. Father’s Day celebrated Cameron: good. Tony Kynaston: Hope everyone out there did the same. Cameron: No, they’re Americans, Tony, they celebrate Father’s Day in a completely different time of year to us. Mm. Tony Kynaston: did. Anyway. I was gonna segue that into hope they all got their small packages, but, um, can’t Cameron: They’re small packages, Tony Kynaston: Day gifts from Australia, which have been held up. Cameron: Oh, that’s a reference to the fact that Australia Post has stopped shipping packages to the United States because of the de minimis ch rule changes. Uh, we were just talking on our Australian podcast about the, uh, state of the economy in the US second lot of weak jobs, job numbers has just come through, and as I pointed out in the last episode, all of the reasons that we’ve been [00:01:00] talking about. Over the last, uh, six months or so on this show, according to the failing New York Times, as the president likes to refer to it, analysts offered a variety of explanations for the slowdown the president’s tariffs on nearly all imports have driven up, driven up costs for companies and prices for consumers. Mr. Trump’s immigration crackdown has made it harder for many businesses to find workers while, while simultaneously reducing the need for them because they now have fewer customers. The federal government has cut jobs directly and canceled grants and contracts that have bled into the private sector. The uncertainty surrounding Mr. Trump’s ever shifting policies has made corporate executives more cautious about hiring and investing. So. You know, who would’ve guessed that, uh, putting Donald Trump back in the White House would lead to chaos and uncertainty? Tony? No, certainly not me. I, that was not on my bingo list. I thought, here’s a man who’s calm and [00:02:00] most stable genius I’ve ever seen. So it’s deeply surprising to me. What about you? Tony Kynaston: Yeah, surprising, surprising to all the Republicans, I would’ve thought. Who, uh, Um, yeah, but I, well first of all, I didn’t access the New York Times ’cause it’s a paywall and I’m not gonna sign up to the New York Times. with the Wall Street Journal, Cameron: What do they have to say? Tony Kynaston: probably the Cameron: Right? Tony Kynaston: Reprinted, uh, anyway. Cameron: uh, as I, I’m gonna do a pulled pork this week on an interesting company, meo. They’re a, uh, methanol, well, they’re the 800 pound gorilla in the methanol space, which is interesting ’cause I know or new before this. Nothing about methanol. But before I do that, I just want to. Give a portfolio, uh, performance update. Our US portfolio is up about 7.6% in the last 30 days versus the s and p 500, which is up [00:03:00] 1.65%. Uh, since inception, which is, uh, September, 2023, our US portfolio is up 70. 4% versus the s and p 500, up 46%. Year to date though we are still struggling. We’re down 7.2% year to date calendar, year to date versus 10.43 for the s and p because of some of Mr. Trump’s policies that tanked our portfolio at the beginning of the year, but over a one year timeframe. We are up 31% versus 20% for the s and p 500. So despite having a rough start to the year, uh, we’re still looking pretty. Um, I, I’ll also just, uh, mention the companies that I’ve done pulled Porks on over the last, uh, 20 episodes on this show. Um. Zap in order of best stories, [00:04:00] zap the smart Chinese smartwatch company that I covered on the 11th of July is now up 1511% since then. It’s just not slowing down. It is down 4% today. Um, but it’s just not slowing down. Gray media is up 40%. Titan machinery is up 11% since we talked about it. Precision Drilling is up 18%. Orx Corporation up 27 IHS holding up 37. Ford is up eight since we talked about it. Chemex is up, uh, 68%. Dan aos is up 16 Canadian. Imperial Bank of Commerce is up 23%. Jackson Financial, up 16%. Costco’s up five. Sasol is up 43% since I talked about it in July. I said they were a dirty, dirty, dirty business they were in and they’re up 43%. Bausch Health Companies is up [00:05:00] 16%. Seneca Foods is up nine. Kim

In this episode, Cameron and Tony dive into the turbulent world of tariffs, the performance of the QAV US portfolio, and Cameron’s “Pulled Pork” deep dive on Brazilian pulp and paper giant Suzano (SUZ). The discussion ranges from Trump’s tariffs being declared illegal, to the surprising success of companies like ZEPP (the smartwatch maker), Gray Media, and others. Cameron traces Suzano’s roots back to its immigrant founder, explores its dominance in eucalyptus pulp production, highlights both its financial strengths and ESG controversies, and weighs up risks like Brazil’s economic volatility and cyclical pulp prices. It’s a mix of global politics, investing fundamentals, and a surprising education in “fluff pulp.” ⸻ Timestamps & Stocks • [00:00:30] Trump’s tariffs ruled illegal — implications for markets. • [00:02:30] QAV US portfolio update: performance vs. S&P 500. • [00:04:15] Reviewing past Pulled Pork picks: • [00:07:30] Pulled Pork: Suzano (SUZ) — Brazil’s pulp and paper giant. Transcription   [00:00:00] Cameron: Tony, I’m the chillest person on the planet. Welcome to QAV America. Tony. Episode 20. Uh, Tony’s just laughing Tony Kynaston: Mm. Cameron: ”cause I said I don’t have any aggression. Tony Kynaston: person on the planet, Cameron: I am the chillest person on the planet. You should know that by now, Tony. Um, uh, well, we’ve, we’re just talking about this in a. Tony Kynaston: I post, uh, democratic, things on Facebook. Cameron: You doing your, uh, David Markin impression? Um, Tony Kynaston: I did Cameron: uh, we just, Tony Kynaston: when you started talking politics. Cameron: yeah. We talked, uh, on our Australian show just now about Donald Trump’s tariffs being declared illegal by a federal appeals court. Tony Kynaston: Has Cameron: so no. Well, no, but he, he reckons it’s gonna go to the Supreme Court, but it just fascinates me when governments. Do [00:01:00] things that they know are illegal. I mean, he must have had somebody in it. I know his administration isn’t necessarily stacked with the finest and the brightest minds, uh, available, but they must have known that, well, we can’t really do this. Let alone the big card that said, these are reciprocal tariffs when they were just made up numbers. But Tony Kynaston: Oh, I, Cameron: must have known that it wasn’t legal. Tony Kynaston: about that. I think the advice, the legal advice was if you declare an emergency, then you have the power to implement. Well, the executive has the power to implement tariffs and that’s Cameron: courts are saying no, Tony Kynaston: Well, this, the and the courts are saying no. which means the underlying court said yes. it’ll go to the Supreme Court and I’d Cameron: No, the first court said, no. The first court, the first court said it was illegal. The Trump administration appealed the first court’s ruling, and the apple at court said no. It was the second time it was declared illegal.[00:02:00] Tony Kynaston: Pesky Cameron: anyway, we’ve talked a lot about how, you know, and I’ll talk about it again when I do my Paul pork today, how it’s, you know, just throwing everything into disarray and as it turns out, is illegal in the first place. And the Supreme Court may or may not side, but the president probably will. ’cause they seem to be pretty favorable towards letting him do whatever the hell he wants to do. But if they say no, who knows what happens next. But um. Tony Kynaston: I will Anyway. it Cameron: Yeah, Tony Kynaston: in the first place. Cameron: I guess, and, and you’ll probably get Congress to back it, so yes. Should have been doing that all along. Before I get into my pulpo for the week, Tony, just do an update on our US portfolio. Uh, in the last 30 days, our US portfolio is up 12.5% versus the s and p 500, which is up 3.5%. Year to date though, our portfolio is down 7.5% versus the s and p. That’s up nearly 10%. But [00:03:00] as I pointed out in our last show, that’s because at the end of last year, our portfolio was up. Uh, I don’t know. Crazy amount. Like 80%. Tony Kynaston: 80%. Yeah. Cameron: 80%. And then, uh, the, at the beginning of this year, when Trump’s Liberation Day, et cetera happened, a lot of our stocks gave up a lot of the gains that they’d had. Um, all time though, going back to when we started this portfolio in September, 2023. So two years ago we will be in a couple of weeks. Our portfolio is up 73% versus the s and p 500, up 45%. So still doing quite well. I also wanted to update you on the performance of the pulled porks that I have done, uh, since we started this show. Uh, just because they’re not all reflected, well, most of them aren’t reflected in our [00:04:00] portfolio. Um, of course the big one being, uh, Zep, the Chinese smartwatch company, which I did on the 11th of July when they were trading at $

In this episode, Cameron and Tony dive deep into the US market’s latest moves following Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole, the surprising resilience of investor sentiment, and a look at how the QAV US portfolio continues to beat the S&P 500. They track the extraordinary rise of ZEPP (up 1,200% since Cameron’s July deep dive) and review other stocks they’ve covered, from Titan Machinery to Sasol. Cameron then takes us through a fascinating pulled pork on Kimball Electronics (KE), tracing its history from pianos and pipe organs to becoming a global contract electronics manufacturer. Along the way, Tony and Cameron unpack value investing lessons, the quirks of US versus Australian markets, and finish with a colourful chat about The Who, Leonard Cohen, Rip Torn, and China’s unique economic model.   Timestamps & Stocks Mentioned • 00:00 – 01:30 | Market update — Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole, Fed signalling • 01:30 – 03:00 | QAV US portfolio performance (up 74% vs S&P 500’s 45%) • Stocks doing well: RM (Regional Management), GASS (StealthGas), ENVA (Enova International), WLFC (Willis Lease Finance) • 03:00 – 05:00 | Cameron’s deep-dive tracker results • ZEPP (Zepp Health) up 1,218% • 08:30 – 36:00 | Pulled Pork: Kimball Electronics (KE) • 36:00 – 39:00 | Comparing US vs Australian markets, portfolio returns • 39:00 – After Hours • Tony’s golfing holiday & horse racing story • Cameron on The Who still rocking in their 80s, Leonard Cohen doco, Rip Torn nostalgia, and books on China’s economic model   Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome to QAV America. Tony, how you doing? Tony Kynaston: I’m doing well. I’ve just had a week off and it has been lovely and, played golf up in Yarra Wonga on the Murray, Cameron: let’s talk about US market. Um, j Powell. Jerome h Powell said The balance of risks across the economy had started to shift raising the odds. The central bank lowers borrowing costs at its next meeting in September. After, uh, he was at Jay Hole. Jay Powell was at Jay Hole. Um, you would think that when the Chairman of the Fed says The economy’s not going well, the market would react negatively to that. On the contrary market, thought that was the best news. Say Dad. Oh, week awake. Tony Kynaston: Uh, it’s, we’re through the looking glass, aren’t we? Cam? I mean, that’s just, yeah. Own. Powell came out and said that he thought there could be a decline in employment, which would, uh, [00:01:00] cause a slowdown in the economy and the market. She, and went up one and a half percent the day Cameron: Yeah. Tony Kynaston: Mm-hmm. Cameron: times. Good times. Well, speaking of good times, uh, we just talked about our US portfolio, so for new listeners, hi, welcome. Yes. We’re two Australians talking about value investing in the United States. We’ve been doing a podcast, uh, about value investing in Australia for five or six years, and, uh, we’ve got a US portfolio that I started back in September, 2023 following our QAV methodology that Tony’s been developing over 30 odd years. Quality at value is what that stands for in case you’re wondering. And that portfolio since inception is up about 74% versus the s and p 500, up about 45% over that period of time. In the last 30 days, our portfolio is up [00:02:00] 8.6% versus the s and p 500, up about 0.8%. So in the last week, some of the stocks that have done particularly well for us are RM regional Management up 8.5% gas ga a s, stealth gas up seven point a 5%. Enva, ENVA and Nova International up about 6.2% overall, our best stock, uh, has and continues to be. Willis Lease Finance, WLFC. It’s up 223% since we bought it, although it hasn’t had a good year. It’s down from about 300%. At some point it was. But generally speaking, our portfolio is doing well in the us Tony, and, um, as I did, uh, last time we did an episode, I’ve got, I’ve been keeping a list of the stocks that I’ve been doing deep dives on this [00:03:00] show. And just to see, because we don’t hold most of them in our portfolio. ’cause our portfolio has been fully invested for quite some time. And unless I need to trade something, I don’t have any capital left to put stocks in. So, but I’m keeping track of how they’re doing. Some of them have done. All right. Um, Zep, the, uh, Chinese smartwatch manufacturer that I did a deep dive on, on the 11th of July is up. 1218% since then. Tony Kynaston: Wow. They should send you a cheap watch. Cameron: Price was $2 98 when I talked about it. It’s currently $39 29. I like somebody, somebody on TikTok, when I posted a story about that last week, said, yeah, but it’s not gonna last. It’ll come back down Tony Kynaston: Nice. Cameron: it probably will, but yeah, up [00:04:00] 1218%, that’s insanity. And um, I think last time we spoke, I said I didn&#8

In this episode of QAV America, Cam and Tony dig into the latest market moves, starting with the chaos in gold prices caused by unexpected US tariffs on Swiss gold imports. Cam reports on the strong performance of the QAV US portfolio—up nearly 64% since inception—highlighting big winners like ZEPP (+964% in a month), CX, IHS, and Orix. They cover portfolio changes, including selling OPHC and adding Jackson Financial (JXN), and discuss broader US economic news, including tariff extensions, inflation concerns, and Fed rate expectations. The centrepiece of the episode is Cam’s deep dive (“Pulled Pork”) on Titan Machinery (TITN), one of the largest US agricultural and construction equipment dealers. He breaks down the company’s history, revenue mix, recent financial challenges caused by the US farming downturn, and why it still scores well under the QAV system. After the investing talk, the “After Hours” segment touches on classic films, new TV shows, and even the Rumble in the Jungle. ⸻ Timestamps & Stocks Mentioned • [00:00] – Gold price swings after surprise US tariffs on Swiss gold imports. • [00:02] – Portfolio update • [00:06] – Selling OPHC after sharp drop; replacing with Jackson Financial. • [00:09] – Broader US news: Trump’s China tariff truce extension; inflation report expectations. • [00:12] – Pulled Pork: Titan Machinery (TITN) – background, business model, global footprint, financial performance, challenges in the US ag market, valuation metrics, and QAV scoring. • [00:31] – Tony’s analysis on TITN’s debt, equity, and cyclical challenges. • [00:34] – After Hours: “The Man Who Fell to Earth” (SBS), “The Apprentice” (Stan), “The Handmaid’s Tale” final season, 1980s sci-fi cult films, “Kings” TV series, and Muhammad Ali vs George Foreman fight rewatch.   Transcription   [00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome to QAV America. Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, episode 18. Uh, we are recording this on the 12th of August, 2025. Well, Tony, it’s, it’s been a big week in America. Markets are kind of booming, kind of crazy, just, uh, the regular going on over there. Any US news stories that, uh, pique your interest this week? Tony Kynaston: Uh, a lot of us news stories picked my interest this week, not the least of which was the gold price movements on Friday afternoon, US time when, uh, Switzerland, which has had lots of tariffs put on it. Um. Somehow I, I’m not sure of the full detail of this, but somehow gold bars being transferred from Switzerland to the US attracted a tariff and that threw the gold market into a tier. And the government came out and said they didn’t mean that to happen. And so it’s all up in the air at the moment. But yeah, the gold price [00:01:00] vacillated quite a bit on Friday, and since then, um, settled down little bit. Um. But, uh, yeah, just a lot of on the fly decision making going on. So it’s, it’s dynamic, entrepreneurial it’s, it’s, uh, causing a few splashes here and there as well. Cameron: Yes. Lots of craziness. Well, I am gonna do a deep dive on another company that I think you’re gonna like today. This is, uh, Titan Machinery Inc. TITN is the ticker. And we’ll get into that in a little bit. Before we get into that, for new listeners welcome. I wanna explain what you’re listening to. Uh, yes. We are two Australian value investors. We’ve been doing a podcast, uh, on value investing for five or six years. Tony’s been a value investor for. 25, 30 years, and he built a system that we call QAV Quality add value buying shares in quality companies when you can get them at the right [00:02:00] discount to their intrinsic valuation. And we’ve developed a methodology, or Tony’s developed a methodology for doing that. It’s a spreadsheet checklist that we run companies through. We teach how to do that on this podcast. We’ve got. Big membership in Australia that we teach, uh, the system to every week. And a few months ago, we decided to start looking at the US market and applying QAV to that. And it’s been going quite well. In fact, we’ve got a US portfolio that I started using our system in September of 23. No, September. Yeah, September 23. Uh, over that period of time, coming up two years, it’s up 63, nearly 64% since then versus the s and p 500, which we use as a benchmark, which is up about [00:03:00] 43% over the same period of time. So it’s outperforming the s and p, and that’s kind of what we look at as our benchmark. Uh, and in the last, um, week. It is had some interesting results. GTN uh, TV stock that I talked about on our show last week. I did a deep dive on GTN and I actually had added it to our portfolio because I had to sell something and replace it. It’s up 23% today, Tony, today. Tony Kynaston: Okay. I can’t explain that. I was gonna mention that, um, their quarterly results were out, uh, and that revenue was do

In Episode 17 of QAV America, Cameron and Tony dive deep into the murky waters of the US media landscape with a pulled pork on Gray Television (GTN) — a classic “cigar butt” Berkshire-style stock that’s generating mountains of cash, trading at absurdly cheap levels, and doubling down on local television and film production while Wall Street yawns. They dissect Gray’s sprawling empire of local stations, film studios, and sports networks, and discuss how its political ad revenue, cash flow, and real estate assets might be wildly mispriced. Along the way, they contrast value investing orthodoxy with their QAV system, explore commodity trends, and reflect on the ideological decay of US political and corporate culture. It’s old media, new math, and some good old-fashioned cynicism. ⸻ ⏱️ Timestamps & Stock Mentions: • [00:00:00] Introduction and banter about speaking pace, US markets, and ideological denialism in politics and business • [00:03:00] 📈 Portfolio Update • QAV US portfolio 30-day: -1% vs S&P500 +1% • 12-month: +19% vs +18% • Since inception: +56% vs +42% • WLFC (Willis Lease Finance Co): former star performer • [00:04:30] 💰 Commodity Trends Update • Iron ore, coal, copper, platinum, etc: many become Josephines • Gold, lithium, steel: remain buys • Wheat, nickel: now sells • [00:05:45] 🚫 Stock Sale: ENOC (Enochian Biosciences) hit Rule 1 • [00:06:10] 🐷 Pulled Pork: GTN (Gray Television) • TV empire with deep assets and hidden value • [00:29:00] 🧠 Discussion on cigar butt investing, M&A potential, market sentiment, and why now might be the time to buy • [00:33:30] Speculation about Skydance, Paramount, and future acquisitions • [00:34:00] Wrapping up – final thoughts on GTN and QAV philosophy Transcription   [00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, episode 17, recording this on the 5th of August, 2025. We talk too slowly to somebody on YouTube, Tony Kynaston: Really. Cameron: so can you, can you speak faster this time, Tony? Tony Kynaston: I Cameron: Uh, well, not fast enough for this person on YouTube. have you been? Tony, you’ve been following the US market, you’ve been reading the Wall Street Journal this week, Tony, Tony Kynaston: I have, yes. Read the Wall Street Journal every day. At Cameron: what have you learned about the US market from the Wall Street Journal this week? Tony? Tony Kynaston: don’t learned this week. Cameron: Yes, Tony Kynaston: it’s a Cameron: yes. Tony Kynaston: Taught to us Cameron: Yeah, as we were talking about in our last show, uh, as people may or may not know, I’ve spent the last 20 years doing mostly history related podcasts and a lot of it on, uh, Soviet [00:01:00] Union and the Cold War. And it is very reminiscent of, you know, uh, an ideology based state like, uh, Soviet. Union under Stalin or uh, communist China under Mao, where you have a particular ideology and messaging that you wanna convey. And if the facts and the data don’t map neatly to that ideology, you deny it, you ignore it, you arrest the people that are promoting it, and, uh, make sure that you end up with a. With a culture, with a society where everyone is too scared to speak the truth, and they just say things that they feel they will be rewarded for, and that’s the problem. You, you, you, it’s a slippery slope then into a society that ignores, uh, facts and data. And, uh, it’s not, it’s not a good thing for society. It’s not a good thing for [00:02:00] industry. It’s not a good thing for business. It’s not a good thing for investors. Uh, so yeah, hopefully this trend in the US gets, uh, turned around at some point   Tony Kynaston: is never a good And I’ve seen it, and it’s kind of a corporate approach to things too. I Cameron: Mm-hmm. Tony Kynaston: plenty of times in big businesses where a boss wants a number when you come to your results, you hit the number by all call Cameron: Mm Tony Kynaston: even if Cameron: mm. Tony Kynaston: sometimes. So, uh, Yeah. no, Cameron: Yeah. Well, um, I think I will just do a quick portfolio update, uh, for our US portfolio. I did have a look at it this morning. And let me see. For the last 30 days, our portfolio was down 1% versus the s and p 500, which was up 1%. For the last 12 months, our portfolio is up 19% versus the [00:03:00] s and p 500 up 18%. And since inception, for our portfolio, which is September, 2023, we’re up 56% versus the s and p 500, up 42%. And as I said to you on our last show, you know, one of the. Well, the big, uh, success in our portfolio is Willis Lease Finance Company, WLFC, which it, by the end of last year was up like 300% since we bought it. It’s come back about 30%, so now it’s only up about 200% since we bought it. But a lot of the, uh, retreat in our portfolio this year has been Willis Lease Finance Company giving up. Its 300% returns down to 200%. So our portfolio. This year looks lik

In this episode of QAV America, Australian value investors Tony and Cam are focusing on Seneca Foods, a classic American company known for its packaged fruits and vegetables. They discuss Seneca’s financial performance, history, and why it’s a compelling value stock despite being considered a boring business. The hosts also reflect on other stocks they have reviewed recently, showing significant gains, and emphasize the ongoing potential to find undervalued stocks in the US market. The podcast aims to apply value investing principles to identify promising investment opportunities. 00:00 Introduction to QAV America00:57 Success Stories and Market Insights04:34 Highlighting Seneca Foods05:33 Seneca Foods: History and Operations13:00 Challenges and Financial Performance19:15 Competitive Advantages and Industry Overview20:21 Financial Performance Analysis21:35 Cash Flow and Investment Strategy24:05 Stock Performance and Market Sentiment28:59 Seneca’s Historical Context32:57 Investment Opportunities in the US Market37:03 US Portfolio Performance38:57 Disclaimer and Transparency Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America. Tony, this is, uh, for new listeners. Welcome. We’re two Australian value investors talking about the American market. We’ve been talking about the Australian market for years. We’re like, let’s broaden our horizons. Let’s, let’s start investing in American stocks as well and applying value investing principles. So each week on the show, we take a stock. That’s on our US buy list, and I do a deep dive into it. Let’s try and figure out why it’s turning up in our buy list, as we call ’em a pulled pork. But, uh, how have you been, Tony, since we last spoke 20 seconds ago? Tony Kynaston: Thank you. Are we called QAV Cameron: I, Tony Kynaston: now? Is that, do we have to change our name? it’s no longer the Gulf of, Cameron: yeah. Tony Kynaston: it’s, or QAV. Cameron: Yeah. Tony Kynaston: QAV Cameron: Well, originally we were, yeah, we were QAV Mexico, but then Trump said we had to change it to QAV America. Tony, a couple of weeks ago on this here [00:01:00] podcast, I did a deep dive on a company called Zep, Zep Health, Chinese Smartwatch Company. Within days of me publishing that their share price jumped up 400%. Um, so I’m not saying I’m a genius. But, um, Tony Kynaston: It’s Cameron: some people say I’m the greatest genius who ever lived, so that was an interesting one. Um, they have. The this, this smartwatch technology that we talked about sounded pretty good, but apparently within a few days of me publishing that they came out and said that they expect the 30% year over year revenue growth growth for the second quarter of 2025. This would be their first revenue increase in three years, and it was seen as a big turnaround. We did talk a lot in the Paul [00:02:00] pork about. Some of the structural things that they were doing and changing their branding. And, uh, they’ve also apparently signed a couple of prominent athletes, NFL running back, Derek Henry and Ultra Runner Rod Fava as brand ambassadors for a maze fit one of the brands that they market under. On Amazon, which as I said, makes you think that it’s associated with Amazon, but it’s not. It’s just something they sell on Amazon anyway, so we don’t hold them. Tony Kynaston: they had, low point price points, I think too, didn’t they? Which was their, one of their big Cameron: Very low. Yeah. We don’t hold them, uh, in our portfolio. I wish we did, but our portfolio was full. We didn’t have any capital left to allocate to them or I would’ve bought them, but I did. Uh, the reason I found this out is I put together a spreadsheet just tracking the stocks that, uh, I’ve done a pulled pork on that we don’t hold in our official portfolio. [00:03:00] And, uh, they’ve, some of them have done really well. Um, CX is up 49% since we talked about it at the end of March. That one Z is up 361% since we talked about ’em on the 11th of July. Some of the other big ones are Poco Holdings. Remember them? There was on the 1st of July. They’re up 20% since we talked about them on the 1st of July. Precision Drilling Corporation we did at the end of June. They’re up 12% IHS holdings we did at the end of May. They’re up 18% Canadian Imperial and Bank of Commerce is up 16%. Uh, Dan OS Corporation is up. 13% Greek shipping company. The one that hasn’t done as well was NL Chile. It’s down 20% since we covered them in May, but the rest are all doing quite well since we’ve covered ’em on the show, which. Is, you know, all jokes aside, just evidence of a couple of things. [00:04:00] Number one, the US market is kind of bonkers at the moment, so I think a lot of things are doing well over there. But also, you know, w

This week on QAV America, Cameron delivers a doozy of a pulled pork on Bausch Health Companies (BHC), the scandal-riddled pharma beast formerly known as Valeant. From jacking drug prices to a multi-billion dollar loss for Bill Ackman, this company has a backstory filthier than a New Jersey motel carpet. But does all that stink mean it’s a value investor’s dream? We break down the history, the cashflow, the debt, and whether BHC’s rebrand is enough to justify a second look — or if it’s just lipstick on a particularly greasy pig.   Tony weighs in on cultural overhang, conglomerate discounts, and why even psychopaths can run a good balance sheet. Oh, and we talk Trump, Maxwell, and the goddamn Godfather. — ## **⏱️ Timestamps + Stocks** – **00:00** – Welcome to QAV America 15: NYSE focus and value investing lens – **02:00** – This week’s pulled pork: Bausch Health Companies (BHC) – **04:00** – Dirty history: Valeant, price gouging, and the big rebrand – **07:00** – 10,000% price hikes and congressional heat – **09:00** – Philidor scandal, shady pharmacy networks, and fake aliases – **10:30** – Bill Ackman’s $2.8B loss and catastrophic exit – **12:00** – The Sprout female Viagra saga: billion-dollar boomerang – **13:30** – Current financials: $1.6B OCF, $20B debt, and F-score of 7 – **16:00** – Xifaxan, IBS, and hepatic snuffleupagus – **18:00** – Bausch + Lomb confusion: spin-off but 90% still owned – **20:00** – Conglomerate discount, legal overhang, and valuation mess – **24:00** – Why value investors should care: deep discount and high cashflow – **26:00** – Quality and QAV metrics: QAV score ~0.45 – **28:00** – Trump, Ozempic, and pharma pricing politics – **30:00** – Portfolio update: US portfolio YTD and all-time performance – **33:00** – After hours: The Open Championship, Godfather rewatch, John Wick realism, and Robert Maxwell conspiracies Transcription   [00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, episode 15. We are recording this July 22nd Australian time, 2025. Just did our Australian show. Now talking about America. For new listeners, welcome. We’re two Australian value investors that have been doing a podcast in Australia for about six years on value investing, and now we’re doing one on the American market as well, where each week I take a company. On the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ in theory, but they always tend to be New York Stock Exchange. ’cause our system of value investing doesn’t tend to score very many NASDAQ companies very highly. But, uh, there’s a lot to choose from. On the New York Stock Exchange, so I, I pick one every week. That scores highly in our system of looking for [00:01:00] quality companies. And by quality companies we mean a lot of different things, but essentially generating a lot of cash is the big one that we’re looking for. And then we look at the, the valuation. What can we, can we buy them at a discount? We’re looking for companies that generate a lot of cash. Particularly interested in the ones that we can buy to discount to what we think their intrinsic valuation is. Then I’ll do a little bit of a deep dive or a pulled pork as we call them. And this week, oh, this is a terribly dirty, dirty company story. Yeah. I think last, I can’t, I think last week we were talking about dirty oil or dirty something. This week it’s dirty, dirty drugs Tony Kynaston: about coal tile last week. Cameron: Ah, that’s right. Well, this time it’s dirty drugs and dirty contact lenses. You don’t want your contact lenses to be dirty, but uh, turns out the business of contact lenses is dirtier than I realized. So the company is called. [00:02:00] Bausch Health, you’re probably familiar with Bausch and lom. The, uh, eyewear brand. Well, this is the parent company now, confusingly Bausch Health. BHC is the company that I’ll be talking about. Bausch Lo is a separately listed company on the New York Stock Exchange. They spun it out. I think it’s B-L-B-L-C-O is Bausch and Lam. Not talking about Bausch and Lobo. I’m talking about Bausch Health. They still own 90% I think of Bausch and lom. They floated off a small amount of it, and they might float off the rest of it too, which I’ll get to, but this is BHC. Now, I do want to preface this by saying. From a sentiment chart perspective, they are currently what we call a Schrodinger. They are above their byline, but slightly below their sell [00:03:00] line. So they’re simultaneously a buy and a sell. So we wouldn’t buy them, they just tipped down they were a buy. So I ran my checklist, my, my buy list, like, uh, two weeks ago. They were a buy at the time. They’ve just dipped a few cents below. Well, it’s a bit more than a few cents. Their sell price is $6 49. They’re currently about $6

**Episode Summary** In this episode of QAV America, Cameron dives deep into the murky, combustible world of Sasol (NYSE: SSL), a South African company built on the back of coal liquefaction technology born in Nazi Germany and refined under apartheid. It’s the kind of “anti-woke” fossil fuel juggernaut value investors might love—or love to hate. With Tony chiming in, they explore Sasol’s origins, tech, environmental baggage (they’re the world’s largest single emitter of CO₂), explosive safety record, and its appeal as a classic ugly-duckling value stock. They also tackle the ethics of ESG investing, ADR headaches, and Sasol’s brutal-but-effective cash-generating machinery. — **📊 Timestamps + Topics** – **[00:01:00]** Introduction to QAV America and this week’s pick: Sasol (SSL) – **[00:02:00]** History of Sasol: Nazi-era tech and apartheid origins – **[00:04:00]** How coal liquefaction works (Fischer-Tropsch & hydrogenation) – **[00:07:00]** WWII Germany’s reliance on synthetic fuel – **[00:10:00]** Sasol’s Secunda plant: 150,000 barrels/day, world’s #1 CO₂ emitter – **[00:13:00]** Environmental targets and underwhelming progress – **[00:14:00]** The disastrous Lake Charles Chemical Project and $4B overrun – **[00:15:00]** Ethane cracker 101 + LyondellBasell JV – **[00:16:00]** Explosions, deaths, and new CEO (Fleetwood Grobler out, Simon Baloyi in) – **[00:18:00]** Revenue breakdown: energy, chemicals (Africa, America, Eurasia) – **[00:20:00]** Currency complications: ZAR reporting on NYSE – **[00:22:00]** The QAV stance on ESG investing – **[00:25:00]** Sasol’s debt, coal reserves, and South African market dominance – **[00:27:00]** CO₂ taxes kicking in from 2026 – **[00:28:00]** Key QAV metrics: – Price/Op Cash Flow = 1.4x – F-Score = 6 – Price/Book = 0.39 – QAV Score = 0.51 – **[00:30:00]** Value thesis: ugly duckling, monopoly position, tons of cash – **[00:34:00]** US investor challenges with ADRs – **[00:35:00]** Final take: not pretty, but potentially profitable Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, two Australian value investors talking about investing in the US market. That’s just, I put, put that in there for new listeners. How are you, Tony? Tony Kynaston: I am well, thanks, cam. Yep. Just finished the hour and a half on stocks in Australia, so it’s fun to see you Cameron: I. Tony Kynaston: Good to see you say Cameron: Well, um, I don’t really have any sort of broad news, as we say every week on this show. It’s in such a state of flux. The US market with tariffs are on, tariffs are off, tariffs are up, tariffs are down. It’s, you know, it, it’s really hard to make any sense of it. And so we don’t try, I mean, we just. Um, for people that are new to QAV, uh, what we try and do is look at the fundamentals of individual businesses and try and find [00:01:00] something that is a bargain. Something that we think is generating good cash flow, but we can buy it at a bargain for one reason or another. And, uh, then on this show, I pick one each week. That is on our US buy list and I talk about it for half an hour, uh, and why it’s on our buy list. And this week I’m doing a company called Sasol, which kind of sound we were just talking about, the Godfather. Um. On our Australian show, and it’s, there’s a character in, in one of the Godfather films, Joey Saso, I can’t remember. Tony Kynaston: part three. Cameron: Is it right? Joey Saso. Okay. Tony Kynaston: Yeah. Sza. Cameron: Oh yeah. Joey Saso. Yeah. Yeah. It’s, uh, well he’s, he plays Vincenzo Corleone, [00:02:00] his Sonny Zi. Tony Kynaston: kills Joey Cameron: S Joey Sasa. That’s right. Yeah. He’s saying something bad about Michael Corleone. Yeah. Yeah. Isn’t that uh, yeah. I can’t remember the name of the actor who played him. Anyway, not to get distracted. Sasol. SSL is the ticket code for Sasol. And you were on an Australian show. You were talking about anti woke. ETFs and I said, well, I’m gonna talk about an anti work company in some ways. This, this company is, uh, what a story they’ve got behind them. Uh, they’re a South African coal liquification. Company and they do other things, but that’s mainly, uh, their background and, and where most of their revenue still comes from. Today, I knew absolutely nothing about coal liquification. Don’t think I’d ever, ever even heard of coal liquification before I started this, but now I [00:03:00] know a little bit about it so I can talk to you about it. But this company, um, was started in the fifties in apartheid South Africa, mostly as a way of securing their energy independence. Because they don’t have a lot of oil in South Africa and they were under economic sanctions and so th

**Episode Overview:** In this episode of _QAV America_, Cam and Tony dissect the fundamentals of **Zepp Health (ZEPP)**, a Chinese smartwatch manufacturer with aspirations well beyond step counters. They unpack the company’s evolution from low-margin Xiaomi contractor to an ambitious, vertically-integrated brand aiming to take on Apple — at a fraction of the cost. Cam walks through the business model, leadership, geopolitical hedging via a Netherlands HQ, and a potential future in AI-powered wearables. Despite being unprofitable, Zepp boasts positive operating cash flow, aggressive R&D spend, and a book value nearly five times its share price. Tony and Cam debate its merits as a deep value tech stock in a crowded, commodified market — with a few detours into Marx Brothers references and Cameron’s post-Kung Fu abs. — ### **🔢 Timestamps & Topics** – **[00:00:00] Trump’s Tariffs & Market Volatility** Trump’s threats to Japan/South Korea spark global market reactions. – **[00:02:00] What is QAV America?** Quick refresher on the QAV system and the process behind selecting U.S. stocks. – **[00:03:20] Zepp Health (ZEPP) Introduction** Zepp’s background, link to Zeppo Marx, and business model basics. – **[00:06:00] What They Make** Smartwatches, fitness bands, health-focused earbuds under brands like Amazfit and Zepp. – **[00:08:00] Price Point Strategy & Competitive Landscape** Sub-$200 devices aiming to mimic Apple Watch functionality. – **[00:12:00] Founder Story & Business Transition** From a hacked pedometer to $10M investment from Xiaomi. – **[00:14:00] Post-COVID Strategy Shift** Moved final assembly to Vietnam, dropped Xiaomi contracts, chasing margin. – **[00:17:00] Netherlands HQ – Why?** Tax, regulatory and geopolitical benefits of being a “Dutch” company. – **[00:19:00] Historical Sidebar: Friars Hung for Transubstantiation** Cameron’s tangent on Gorinchem’s bloody Reformation history. – **[00:21:00] Crowded Marketplace – Smartwatch Wars** 45M units shipped in Q1 2025, Zepp fighting for space in cheap smartwatch jungle. – **[00:25:00] Margins, Hardware & Amazon Dominance** Race-to-the-bottom manufacturing, vertical integration, low build costs. – **[00:29:00] Financials Breakdown** – **[00:33:00] AI Push – The Bull Case** Expanding AI team to 120 people. Vision for on-device LLMs powering wearables. – **[00:36:00] The Future of Personal Devices** Onboard AIs, wearables, and the shifting market from fitness to full-assistant functionality. – **[00:38:00] Final Verdict** Transcription   [00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, episode 13, timestamp. Tuesday, the 8th of July in Australia, about 2:30 PM in the afternoon. It’s a Tuesday. Uh, we’ve just done an Australian show where we talked about President Trump’s uh. Nobel Peace Prize nomination and congratulations to him on that. And uh, sure that’ll go great. And, um, more tariffs that he announced yesterday that he’s gonna hit Japan and South Korea with, if they don’t. Give him a call and pledge allegiance and, uh, the US markets fell, the Australian market fell and then woke up and went, what are we doing? And recovered. So Tony Kynaston: A, uh. Was that the Cameron: Kramer, Tony Kynaston: by the American? Uh, the Australian [00:01:00] market. Cameron: yeah. Tony Kynaston: it follows Wall Street up or down and it didn’t, it started to and it turned around today. But we do have Cameron: Started, Tony Kynaston: reserve bank meeting going on now, which may drop interest rates. Cameron: I think they had a cup of coffee, all of our traders, and realized that Trump will tar it. And so they went, what are we? Why are we doing this? Let’s just assume he’s gonna tar it and get back to business. Oh, I dunno what they did. Tony Kynaston: knows. Anyway, freedom Day number two. Coming up on Monday, Cameron: Yes, just volatility all over the place, still in the US markets. Um, we, we are fortunate that because we have a system that ignores noise, most of what’s going on, we just go, yeah, yeah, whatever. And we focus on the fundamentals. Tony Kynaston: And, and make a bit of fun of it too, usually. Cameron: Yes, you do. You Tony Kynaston: Hmm. Cameron: will just stick to our knitting. And so today I’m going to, for people that are [00:02:00] listening for the first time, um, QAV is a value based investing system that Tony has developed over the last 30 years, continues to develop and refine, uh, we call it QAV. It’s quality at value. So we’re looking for. Stocks in quality companies, basically companies that seem to be well run and are making money, uh, when we can get them at a discount to their intrinsic valuation. And we have a number of metrics that we look at. And so what I do in these US shows is I generate a buy list using our checklist that we

Cam and Tony dive deep into the performance of the QAV USA portfolio, which beat the S&P 500 handsomely with a 28.5% return over the last 12 months. The highlight of the episode is a rich and surprisingly wild pulled pork on Korean steel giant POSCO (PKX), including its transformation from a state-owned dinosaur into a cash-gushing, lithium-investing modern behemoth. Cam throws in a history lesson on South Korea’s postwar dictatorship, self-coups, and assassinations, making this one of the more cinematic episodes yet. They also discuss the removal of the Z-score from the checklist, U.S. tariffs, Trump’s fluctuating relationship with Elon Musk, and why lithium is flashing a buy signal.   ### **🕒 Timestamps & Key Topics** – **[00:00] Portfolio Update** – QAV USA beats S&P 500: 28.5% vs. 13.6%. – **[01:50] Z-score Removal** – Why the bankruptcy Z-score is out of the checklist. – **[04:00] U.S. News Roundup** – 90-day tariff pause, Elon’s political party, Trump’s Neuralink drama. – **[08:00] Currency Talk** – USD’s worst start to a year since 1973. – **[09:00] Pulled Pork: POSCO (PKX)** Transcription   [00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America tk. This is episode 12 of QAV America. It’s been, uh, it’s been the end of the financial year in Australia. Tony. I know Americans probably won’t appreciate this, but for us it’s the beginning of a new financial year. We’re recording this on the 1st of July, 2025. And, uh, now Australian show that we just finished, I did talk about our US portfolio. So Tony Kynaston: Mm-hmm. Cameron: List, it’s just the last 12 months. You don’t have to think about it as a financial year, but. It closed up about 28.5% for the last 12 months versus the s and p 500, which was up about 13.6%. So good year for our US portfolio. Not as good as it was months ago pre-Trump when we were up about 60% for the year already. But you know, I’m not gonna [00:01:00] turn my nose up at a 28% for the year. So. Tony Kynaston: Correct. What would Bill, what would baby, what would Baby Billy say about that Cam? Cameron: say, come on now. now, baby Billy from the Righteous Gemstones. If you haven’t watched that TV show, uh, Danny McBride show. Love it. Just finished. Great show. Um, Tony, uh, also on our Australian show, I mentioned the Z score. And we, we talked a lot about Stockopedia in the Zed score and whether or not we want to keep it in our checklist or not, we decided to rip it out that, uh, it is gonna come up in the pulled pork I’m gonna do today on Korean Steelmaker, or posco. uh, just for any US listeners that are using our checklist. I’ll have a new version up this week where I’m gonna rip out the Zed score. It’s, uh, ZED scores, the ZED scores for manufacturing, the [00:02:00] ZED scores for non-manufacturing, and they don’t apply for financials. And it’s very busy and it’s very messy. And we just decided we have enough other financial metrics that we’re using to assess these companies. And we have our sell triggers if they start to go south, both for the commodities and also for the. Business itself, its share price. So we think we’re pretty well protected. We don’t need the extra layer of protection of the Z bankruptcy So we’re gonna be removing that and you can get a new version of our checklist if you’re using it sometime after this episode comes out. Tony Kynaston: I just, just one thing to add. Um. I mean, you did reconcile the Zed scores to the Australian checklist that we were using from a different source, and they were a bit all over the place, but the F score was a much better match for what we had been used to for the last five years. So I’m, you know, confident that the fco, uh, fine. And there’s nothing wrong with the Zed score, but we just couldn’t get it to [00:03:00] correlate with what we were seeing from the other data sources we’d used before. Cameron: And partly as we said on the Australian show, partly that’s because the original Z score, which was developed in the sixties was looking at manufacturing companies and we don’t have a lot of manufacturing companies end up on our checklist in Australia. Tony Kynaston: Mm-hmm. Cameron: a lot of manufacturing companies ending up in our buy list. In the US that are based in the US either, I mean. I dunno if we could maybe say Ford as a manufacturing business, I guess, but probably not. one I’m gonna do today is based actually in Korea. It’s just got an a DR on the, uh, New York Stock Exchange. So, um. But it is, but there’s just too many messy variations of it for our purposes, and I don’t think it’s worth the effort and trouble it would take to reconcile all of them for all of the different stocks that we have in terms of us, uh, market news, Tony. Um. You know, it’s this [00:04

In this episode of QAV America, Cameron gives a pulled pork on Precision Drilling Corp. (PDS) — a Canadian oil services company building high-tech, remotely operated, even walking oil rigs. Think Tesla, but for shale fields. They cover the company’s innovative rig tech, impressive cash generation, and resilience through past oil busts, while also addressing its debt risks and why the market might still be gun-shy. Plus: updates on the QAV dummy portfolio (up 33% YoY), a breakdown of top performers like Willis Lease Finance (WLFC) and Foreign Trade Bank of Latin America (BLX), and a Tesla sticker that sums up the state of modern car ownership.— ### **🕒 Timestamps & Key Topics** – **[00:00:00]** – U.S. bombs Iran again; NYT suddenly finds common ground with Trump – **[00:02:30]** – Portfolio update: US dummy portfolio up 6.89% in 30 days, YoY up 33.3% – **[00:05:00]** – Intro to **PDS (Precision Drilling Corp)** pulled pork – **[00:33:00]** – Final checklist score: QAV score of **0.29** – **[00:39:00]** – Landman (TV show) shoutout and sci-fi-worthy oil rig tech Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America, Tony. I think this is episode 11. It’s been a big week. Tony, since we last talked, people. Yeah. Bombing America’s Back doing what it loves best bombing. Other countries love a good bombing. Uh, it’s funny, you know, I read the New York Times every day, as you know, and you know, most of their articles, uh, are negative towards Trump and the Trump administration. As soon as he starts bombing somewhere. It’s been interesting to see how the New York Times started to rally around the, [00:01:00] you know, say what you want about Trump, but, uh, he’s doing the right thing here. This is, yeah. He got a bomb. Iran. This is good. This is good. Trump Trump’s finally doing something. We agree with bombing, bombing another country. Anyway, it’s obviously been an interesting time for the Yes. Tony Kynaston: It, its effect on the, on the oil market. sure it’s had an effect on the stock market yet Too much. Cameron: No, uh, it’s the stock market. Well, it did, it dipped. Uh, when people thought, whoa, I don’t know, maybe oil is gonna, maybe they’re gonna. Block the Straits of Hormuz, but, uh, nah. Then it sort of rebounded. After that, everything dipped for a day and then they got over it. They decided it was, uh, TACO bombing and, uh, they, they, they, they recovered. Tony Kynaston: Uh, Cameron: the latest news. Tony Kynaston: Trump declared a truce, a cease one Cameron: Trump. Trump said that there was a truce and then Iran and [00:02:00] Israel came out and said, what? Uh, what? We’re not aware of that, but um, I. Yeah, market got on the front foot, and I thought I would start this with just reviewing our portfolio. So in the last 30 days, our US portfolio is up 6.89% versus the s and p 500, up 3.83%. So been a good month for us vis-a-vis that. Year to date though, our portfolio is still down 17.4% versus the s and p 500, up 2.4%. Um, but over the last 12 months, we’re up 33.3% versus the s and p up. 10.2%. So we’re still doing three [00:03:00] times the market over the last 12 months, which I’m not gonna complain about. It’s pretty good. The big winners in our portfolio. Well, let’s do, I don’t think Wikipedia. Yeah, it doesn’t change when I change the timeframe. Let me big gains, uh, Willis Lease Finance is still our biggest, it’s, uh, up 199% since we bought it. What’s next? BLX Foreign Trade. Bank of Latin America is up 68% in Nova, internationally and VA is up 67%. Euro Cs up 65 gas GASS, which is stealth gas up 33. Optimum Bank Holdings, OPHC is up 32%. Kt your initials backwards up 28% regional management. Up 20 Sarcos Energy navigation, another shipping company up 16, uh, [00:04:00] EOS Greek, another Greek shipping company up 6.84 UBS up about 1% since we added them. And The Big Loser is the one that I did the Paul Pork on a few weeks ago. NL Chile, the company that builds mobile phone towers everywhere from memory. Uh, they’re down 10% since we bought them, so haven’t looked into that. Not sure what’s going on there, but, uh, all in all portfolio is doing pretty, pretty good in a very frothy market. And we don’t own any of the MAGA seven still. Tony Kynaston: no all value stocks. Um, and, you know, just to prove that they can grow as as the mag seven or the growth stocks. Cameron: Not the sure as they’re doing as well as the MAGA seven stocks, but they’re doing okay. I saw a Tesla, I was out, uh, going out to dinner last night in Brisbane, and I [00:05:00] saw a Tesla parked in front of me that had a sticker on the back that said, I bought this before I knew Elon was crazy. So, uh. Please don’t key my car, I guess is the, uh, thing I said to Chrissy just the day before that we

In this episode of **QAV U.S.**, Cameron and Tony dive deep into Japanese financial conglomerate **ORIX Corp (NYSE: IX / TYO: 8591)**—a sprawling, Berkshire-like beast with operations in leasing, insurance, private equity, energy, real estate, and even a baseball team. They discuss ORIX’s intriguing scandal history in Australia, its global diversification, and the tax nightmares of investing in PFIC-designated ADRs for U.S. citizens. The episode also covers the broader Japanese market dynamics (like stocks trading under book value), crude oil’s re-entry as a buy, and the nuances of applying the QAV system to ADRs with foreign currency reporting. As always, the show blends solid financial analysis with historical trivia, sarcasm, and irreverent humour. — ### **🕒 Timestamps & Key Topics** **[00:00:00] News Banter:** Trump’s meme coin windfall and gold phone, G7 drama – **[00:02:00] Portfolio Update:** QAV US Portfolio up 55% since Sept 2023 vs S&P500 up 35% – **[00:03:00] Crude Oil:** Back to “buy” due to Israel/Iran tension – **[00:05:00] Stock Deep Dive – ORIX Corp (IX / 8591)** – [00:09:00] Australian bribery scandal (Coca-Cola Amatil link) – [00:13:00] History, conglomerate structure, and earnings complexity – [00:23:00] Cultural/market-specific issues (Japan’s sub-book valuations, PFIC tax designation) – [00:29:00] Sum-of-the-parts valuation gap (~$33B vs $21B market cap) – [00:33:00] Active ventures: Osaka Casino Resort, Panasonic deal, green energy – **[00:36:00] QAV Checklist Review:** Adjustments for currency, EPS, and price/book challenges – **[00:43:00] Verdict:** Despite quirks, IX gets a QAV score of 0.24 – potential value Transcription AUDIO of QAV U.S. 10 [00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America, Tony QAV America, episode 10. This is got some big news. Uh, Tony, Tony Kynaston: Ooh, Cameron: broken, just popped up on my news alert. The Trump family’s next venture, a gold, smartphone and mobile phone service. So there you go. Get your, Tony Kynaston: fantastic. Cameron: in for one of those. Gonna be all made in America and sell for 500 bucks. So, uh. Tony Kynaston: Really. Cameron: Can’t wait to see that. Tony Kynaston: did you see the, uh, the return that showed that, uh, Don had made 70 upping million dollars out of his meme? Coin, Cameron: How much? 17 million. Tony Kynaston: I think it was 79 million from memory. Cameron: Oh, right. Oh, I thought he would’ve made a lot more than that. There you go. It’s a bit of a bit of a [00:01:00] shame. Feel sad for him now. That’s all he made. Thought it would’ve been billions. Tony Kynaston: And, he left the G seven conference without meeting our prime minister. Cameron: Yeah, of course. Tony Kynaston: meant to meet our prime Minister, but he ducked off, he ducked our Prime Minister Cameron: Listen, if you, if you had a good reason to avoid meeting with our prime minister, wouldn’t you take it? Tony Kynaston: That’s right. Well done Donald. Cameron: Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Uh, well, Tony, um, we’re gonna talk, I’ve gotta pull pork or a deep dive to do on another American listed stock today. we get into that, I thought I should do the, uh, portfolio report. Tony Kynaston: Mm-hmm. Please. Cameron: Um, the US portfolio, the QAV US portfolio. When I did my weekly newsletter this morning for the last 30 days, it was up 3.3% versus the s and p 500, up [00:02:00] 1.25%. Over the last 12 months, our portfolio was up 34% versus the s and p 500 up 11, which you said on the last show was about 11. I thought it was much more than that, but it, you’re right, it was only 11. Um, the s and p 500 in the last 12 months, and since inception September, 2023, our portfolio is up 55% versus the s and p 500, up 35%. That’s probably the number I was thinking of. Tony Kynaston: Yeah. Right. Cameron: So, uh, that’s how we’re tracking. Pretty good still, despite being the best, uh, year, like last couple of months has not been the best for our US portfolio. But, uh, this month it’s doing pretty, pretty good. No complaints. Um. Have you got anything to talk about in [00:03:00] terms of US stuff? Before I get into the deep dive today, Tony, Tony Kynaston: no, I don’t. I, um, I have been reading the Wall Cameron: I. Tony Kynaston: but uh, none of our stocks have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, so I can’t really comment on, uh, on stock specific news this week. I. Cameron: Well, one thing we can mention is that crude oil is a buy again. Um, as we’ve talked about on the show before. W you know, when we are looking at investments in companies that, uh, tied to underlying commodities, uh, we, we tend to not buy them if the underlying commodity is in a sell state. Judging by Street Point trendline, crude oil had been a sell for quite some time. And, uh, there was just a little thing people, people pro

In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony dissect the surprising fundamentals of Jackson Financial (NYSE: JXN) — a life insurance and annuities company that’s quietly throwing off “truckloads of cash” despite confusing accounting quirks. Cameron explores the company’s backstory (strangely has nothing to do with the Jackson 5), explains its spin-off from Prudential, and struggles to understand how interest rates and reinsurance affect its bottom line. Tony weighs in on debt management, actuarial complexity, and where annuity products fit in the spectrum of retirement options. They also touch on the controversial new U.S. tax on foreign investors (with implications for Aussie super funds), and deliver a performance update on the QAV U.S. portfolio — up a staggering 54% since inception. This episode is nerdy, weird, and funny as hell. — ### **🕒 Timestamps & Key Topics** **[00:00:00]** Welcome back to QAV America — episode 009 and the license to invest – **[00:01:30]** 🇺🇸 The “Big Beautiful Bridge” Bill — U.S. tax on foreign investors & implications for Australian super funds – **[00:04:30]** 📈 Portfolio Performance Update – US Portfolio: +54% vs. S&P 500 +35% since Sep 2023 – **[00:05:30]** 💬 Listener feedback on Ford (NYSE: F) — is debt a problem? Tony’s rebuttal – **[00:08:00]** 🥩 Pulled Pork: Jackson Financial (NYSE: JXN) – **[00:21:00]** 🧠 Explaining the impact of interest rates on annuity businesses – **[00:26:00]** JXN product mix: fixed annuities, variable annuities, and how it resembles a fund manager – **[00:30:00]** Reinsurance risks and accounting noise — why Q1 looked worse than it is – **[00:32:00]** Governance and leadership: CEO Laura Prieskorn’s 30-year tenure – **[00:33:00]** JXN share buybacks, price targets, and consensus ratings – **[00:34:30]** Risks: interest rates, regulation, economic volatility – **[00:35:30]** 🧮 QAV Score Breakdown Transcription   [00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America, Tony, 9 0 0 9. License to talk about investing. Tony Kynaston: Well, we are. Cameron: It’s not, not sexy like oh seven is a license to Kill oh oh nine is a license just to talk about investing and we don’t have a license to talk about it. Tony Kynaston: oh 0 in one of the movies, wasn’t it? I think from memory. Cameron: he was, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. so Tony this week on QAV America, I mean, lots of chaos happening again over just in the US market. knows we don’t need to talk about that again. I do have a pulled pork to do this week on a company called Jackson Financial. Uh, this is apparently, um, Tito and uh, the rest of the Jacksons after Michael died. They. Turn themselves into a, um, annuities, uh, business. [00:01:00] Yeah. Tony Kynaston: him. Cameron: yeah. Can you feel it is the, uh, motto of the company. Have you got anything else though before I get into Jackson’s? Uh, do you got anything else you wanna talk about Tony? Tony Kynaston: well, I, we just talked off air quickly about it. I’ll just mention in case there are any overseas investors listening to this, that part of the big beautiful bridge bill that’s going to the Senate being passed by the lower house, there is a 5% tax on dividends and interest if you’re an overseas investor you come from a country that, uh, America doesn’t like, um, and Australia is one of those. Because Cameron: Which is all of them pretty much at the moment, I think. Yeah. Tony Kynaston: yeah. Um, uh, it rises by 5% for the next four years, every year for the next four years until it gets to 20%. So, um, just be aware of Cameron: on dividends? Tony Kynaston: Mm. There, there Cameron: no. Tony Kynaston: [00:02:00] Apparently there are a lot of people upset about this in the US, in in the institutional area who are lobbying like crazy, uh, lobbying their senators like crazy. They have that bit taken out, but may well get passed. And if you think about all the people who are foreign investors in the us, it’s a large chunk of the us. Um. Economy and market companies like Shell, who I used to work for, um, you know, are domiciled in the Hague and in the UK and they’re, uh, investing and operating in the us So they’ll be, by this, if they pay a dividend back, if they pay a dividend example, or receive dividends from investments. Um, then you think about all the big. Investment banks, um, HSBC, for example. in the other European ones, they’ll be facing problems. And of course the Australian super industry is trying to work out what to do. ’cause they have large investments in the US the, in the Mag seven. And um, I know they don’t always pay dividends, but if they dividends and they’ll be taxed as well. So they’re trying to work out what to do. [00:03:00] So, um, I’m merely raising it for people to be aware of it if they’re investing in the

In this week’s QAV episode, we sit down with the ever-dashing Tobias Carlisle, founder of The Acquirer’s Fund (ZIG, DEEP), author of The Acquirer’s Multiple, and deep value maverick, to dissect the state of value investing in the era of AI-driven hype. We cover the brutal cycles of deep value, AI vs. human decision-making in funds, the madness of quantum computing valuations, and how Toby’s trip to China left him unconvinced by the West’s collapse narrative. We also drill into oil, Ford ($F), and the implications of passive investing’s stranglehold on market direction. Plus, Buffett worship, civil war exit strategies, and why Americans don’t get Aussie piss-taking. — ### **🕒 Timestamps & Key Topics** **[00:00:00]** – Intro: “George Clooney of Value” and Toby’s current funds (ZIG & DEEP on NYSE) – **[00:02:00]** – Deep value gets smashed by the AI mania & 2024’s brutal cycle – **[00:03:30]** – Johnny Ive’s $6.5B deal with OpenAI despite not having a product – **[00:06:00]** – The usefulness and limits of AI in investing – **[00:08:00]** – Data quality issues in quant/A.I. models & risks of blind automation – **[00:09:30]** – CEOs trained to manipulate investor perception – **[00:10:00]** – Comparing QAV’s approach (OCF < 7) to Toby’s Acquirer’s Multiple (EV/Operating Income) – **[00:11:30]** – Meta ($META) during its metaverse meltdown; AI boom echoing the dotcom bust – **[00:12:00]** – Toby’s focus on oil & gas stocks in his fund strategy – **[00:15:00]** – Oil cycles, OPEC+ manipulation, and US shale’s role – **[00:16:00]** – Ford ($F): bleeding in EVs but still a value stock due to ICE cash flows – **[00:17:30]** – Observations from Shanghai: Huawei’s EVs, $35K luxury cars, US auto at risk – **[00:21:00]** – Why QAV ignores forecasts and focuses on real-time cash flows – **[00:23:00]** – China’s economy: Does it look like collapse… or a 1900s US boom? – **[00:26:00]** – Buffett, Zenner, and the case for ignoring macro – **[00:30:00]** – Buffett’s honesty, marketing genius, and myth of “buy and hold forever” – **[00:34:00]** – Musk, Tesla ($TSLA), and the new religion of tech investing – **[00:36:00]** – Tobias’s fund benchmarks: Russell 1000/2000 Value vs. S&P500 – **[00:40:00]** – Market could go sideways for 15 years (again): Value thrives in churn – **[00:43:00]** – Passive investing as a market distorting force – **[00:47:00]** – Why buybacks work for value: AutoZone ($AZO), O’Reilly ($ORLY) case studies – **[00:48:00]** – Franking credits vs. buybacks: US vs. Australian shareholder incentives – **[00:49:00]** – US regulatory quirks: share classes, market makers, quarterly reports – **[00:52:00]** – Licensing hurdles for fund managers who podcast – **[00:53:00]** – Civil war in the US? Don’t believe the hype – **[00:55:00]** – Cultural differences: why Americans think we’re all sarcastic bastards – **[00:57:00]** – Tobias’s new book “Soldier of Fortune: The Ancient Art of Risk-Taking” Transcription [00:00:00] Cameron: Joined by the best looking man in value investing, the George Clooney of ValueToby: Oh, keep it coming.Tony Kynaston: Oh, the youngest, the youngest value investor. I knowToby: Oh,Tony Kynaston: we’re usually all old guys.Toby: there’s, there’s no one left. How are you,Cameron: Welcome.Toby: Thanks. That’s a veryCameron: Yeah. Good. Oh man, every time I see you, I’m like, how does he get to be so good looking? That’s not fair.Toby: an app.Cameron: sporting a little bit, a little bit more gray, a little bit more gray than the last time we talked, which was a couple of years ago, I think,Toby: a, it’s thatCameron: isToby: We’ll do it to you.Cameron: I thought it was Trump’s tariffs that were doing it to you.Um,Toby: the news anymore. I switched it all off. So.Cameron: So, uh, Tobias Carlisle from the Acquirer’s Fund, uh, the Acquirer’s Dilemma? No. What was the name of your book,Toby: Yeah, the, the, uh, the last book was the [00:01:00] Acquirers multiple that came out in 2017, and theCameron: right.Toby: Funds. I’ve got two they’re both ETFs listed on the NYC Zig, which is mid and large deep value domestic US, and Deep, which is small and micro deep value domesticCameron: they? Weren’t they zig and zag? No. JustToby: I, I’ve got somebody to put their foot on zag for me, but I don’t, I don’t have a zag fund. I probably would like to do an international or a global fund, uh, ICameron: right.Toby: the two that I have. I need a little bit of, I need a little bit of a tailwind, I think, before I really launch another fund.Cameron: So how’s the, how’s the funds going?Toby: Um, they’re doing fine in their category, but the category is, is getting smashed. It’s the, it’s the curse

In Episode 7 of QAV America, Cameron and Tony unpack the rollercoaster of IHS Holding (NYSE: IHS), a telecom tower operator entrenched in the geopolitical chaos and economic turbulence of Nigeria and beyond. They dive into IHS’s financials, foreign exchange exposure, and growth prospects, all while navigating sovereign risk, coups, and currency collapse. Alongside, the duo discusses Trump’s new tariff threats, how macroeconomic noise distracts from fundamentals, and why ignoring the headlines might be the smartest investing strategy. It’s part deep dive, part reality check, and part investor therapy. — ### **🕒 Timestamps & Key Topics** – **[00:00:00] Catching up, weather, and family stories** – **[00:02:00] US Portfolio Update** – Down 3.7% vs. S&P 500 down 2.6% – **[00:03:30] Annual Performance (Australia FY)** – QAV portfolio up ~25% vs. S&P 500 ~6% – **[00:04:30] Trump’s Tariff Threats** – 50% on EU, 25% on Apple iPhones – **[00:06:00] Investing Philosophy** – Ignore macro noise, focus on fundamentals (Buffett/Munger approach) – **[00:07:00] Pulled Pork: IHS Holding (NYSE: IHS)** – Largest tower operator in Nigeria (39,000 sites) – 95% of revenue via long-term leases – HQ in London, ops in Africa, LATAM, Middle East – **[00:35:00] Conclusion** – High risk, high potential; good track record in tough markets Transcription [00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome back to QAV America. This is episode seven. We’re recording this on the 27th of May. My name is Cameron Riley. With me is Tony Kynaston. How are you? Tk?TK: Very well. Thank you, cam, as the rain. Comes inCameron: Raining inTK: at Cape Shank.Cameron: who’sTK: It’s moved, actually. It’s moved on now. It’s very Scottish down here at the moment.Cameron: Speaking of which, I have a, a Scottish aunt who’s coming to a, or is in Australia actually at the moment, but she’s coming to Brisbane at the end of this week, who I’ve never met before. One of my dad’s sisters, she’s coming to spend a week with us and Brissy. That’ll be nice.TK: Oh, nice. Yeah.Cameron: Um.TK: you all the low down on your dad.Cameron: Yeah, looking forward toTK: Yeah.Cameron: I think she was quite young when he left Scotland, so I don’t think she actually knew him very well at all. So I think ’cause they had like 12 kids in the family and I think, [00:01:00] uh, she’s one of the younger ones and he was the third eldest. So, and he left when he was like 18 or 19 and came to Australia.So then, yeah, last time they saw him until he wentTK: That’s a.Cameron: Not a year or so, but a year or two before he died.TK: That’s a sliding doors moment. You could have wound up anywhere in the world, couldn’t you, but till your father chose Australia.Cameron: Well, no, my mother was here, so if he’d gone somewhere else, I wouldn’t be, wouldn’t be me. It’d be someone else.TK: Yeah, true.Cameron: Anywho,TK: I.Cameron: uh, let’s, uh, talk about our US portfolio, Tony. It was down a little bit in the last seven days, down 1.3%, and the benchmark was up. Quite a bit, 9.85%, uh, according to But then when I looked at the charts, that doesn’t make much sense ’cause theTK: Yeah, it sounds like a lot.Cameron: down for the week.me just open up again and see if wrote that down [00:02:00] incorrectlyin the last week. So that’s say May 19th. Yeah. Okay. Now it’s given me a completely, yeah, it’s, uh, it says it was down 1.93%. Okay.TK: go.Cameron: There youTK: We need, we need some, uh, some television hold music while you check thingsCameron: yeah, yeah.TK: a little, little bit of Herb Albert and a Tijuana Brass or something in the background.Cameron: I just,I just, edited out of the show. It’s all right. No one knowsTK: Oh, okay. I’m referring to something which hasn’t happened.Cameron: Yeah, actually. Okay, so looking at this now, it says we’re down 3.7% for the last seven days, and the s and p 500 was down 2.6% for the last seven days, so we were down a little bit more, but not by that much. So that sounds a lot more reasonable anywayTK: Yeah,Cameron: the numbers I got earlier.TK: sounds with my, uh, mental picture of what’s happened in the US in the last weekCameron: [00:03:00] Yeah.TK: stock market. Hmm.Cameron: But, uh, this Australian Financial year, which is from the 1st of July through to today, our portfolio is up about 25% versus the s and p up about a little bit less than 6%. So. We’re still doing quite a bit better than the benchmark, even though we’veTK: Mm-hmm.Cameron: way since Trump started doing his tariff business.We’re still comparatively doing quite well and can’t complain.TK: Yeah, we don’t complain ’cause nobody listens.Cameron: Speaking of Trump’s tariffs, we talked about this on our Australian

In this episode of **QAV America**, Cameron and Tony dive into the volatile world of commodities, classic value investing strategies, and a surprising value opportunity in **Ford Motor Company (F)**. They unpack how iron ore and wheat commodities are back in a buy state, dig into Rich Pzena’s investing philosophy from a **Tobias Carlisle** interview, and debate whether Ford is a deep value play or a trap. With historical nods to **Cisco (CSCO)**, **GE (GE)**, and **U.S. Steel (X)**, the episode blends macro insights, personal investing war stories, and a no-BS breakdown of Ford’s financials and risks. — ### **🕒 Timestamps & Key Topics** – **[00:01:00] Commodity Signals** – Iron ore and wheat are back in a buy state; relevance to companies like **Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)**, **U.S. Steel (X)**, and **ConAgra (CAG)**. – **[00:07:00] Tobias Carlisle & Rich Pzena Interview** – Value investing through the dot-com crash and how Pzena survived ten brutal quarters of underperformance. – **[00:13:00] Cisco and the Bubble Years** – Why **Cisco (CSCO)** was once the darling of Wall Street and how it took 25 years to recover. – **[00:20:00] GE’s Comeback** – Deep-dive into the COVID-era collapse and recovery of **GE Aerospace**, and how Pzena calculated a low-risk, high-reward buy at $5. – **[00:27:00] Ford Motor Company Deep Dive** – A full pulled pork on **Ford (F)** including fundamentals, risks, and whether it’s a value buy or trap. – **[00:49:00] EV Problems** – Ford’s **Model E division** is hemorrhaging $5B/year. Negative margins, price cut death spirals, and policy headwinds. – **[00:53:00] Recalls & Regulation** – 273,789 vehicles recalled due to brake failure. Ongoing issues with the **NHSTA** and BlueCruise software. – **[01:01:00] Financials & Forecasts** – $35B in cash, but volatile margins. Forward projections in flux due to tariffs and union labour cost hikes. – **[01:12:00] Family Control** – The **Ford family’s** Class B shares still control 40% of the board. A good sign for long-term stability? – **[01:14:00] After Hours** – Golf course reviews and Pierce Brosnan fanboying. Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome to QAV America, episode six. Tony Kynaston. TK: I like the Cameron: How are you? TK: QAV America, it’s like, like a campaign ad. Cameron: You like that? TK: it’s morning in America. It’s, it’s QAV in America. Cameron: Yeah, we are not in America. uh, if you are listening to this in America, hello. Welcome. Thank you for joining us. TK: our tariffs. Cameron: things? Yeah, we need the money. Pay our tariffs. We don’t get the money, but paid anyway. Well. Tony, um, I’m gonna do a pulled pork today, but, uh, a couple of things I wanted to cover off before we get into that. a couple of, well, we don’t need to talk about Joe Biden’s prostate cancer, although that’s something that I’m sure are talking about. One of the things that we track on QAV [00:01:00] for people that are new listeners, who I assume most of you are. One of the things that we do each week when I do my buy lists is we look at the commodity prices and we, because the number of particularly in Australia that are quite often in their buy lists, that have an uh, are tied to commodities. They’re mining companies or their agriculture companies or else do we have? Mostly mining and wheat are the ones that we tend to look at TK: coal. Yep. Cameron: exactly. Um, So uh, one of the things that we’ve noticed in our uh, commodity this week is that iron ore has just become a buy again. When we say it, it’s become a buy. We track these commodities the same way we track stocks. We put them on a five year, monthly chart, and then we draw three point trend lines to determine the. Buy [00:02:00] trendline is, and the sell trendline is, and we determine whether or not the commodities are in a buyer or a sell state from our perspective. and then if we have a stock, say a mining company let’s say a company that mines iron ore. If the iron ore itself, the commodity itself is in a sell state, we won’t buy the stock regardless of what we think about where the. Companies financials are at, and whether or not it’s in a buy state. Because what we’ve learned over the years is that. the share price of these mining companies lags, but it tends to follow the state of the commodity, the underlying commodity. So with that in mind, iron ore has just become a buyer again after being in a sell state for a couple of years, more or less, I would hazard a guess. TK: Yeah, at least a Cameron: it’s been falling, I think. Okay. I could look it up ’cause I do track it, but I can’t be bothered right now. [00:03:00] And wheat has just become a buyer as well. Now in Australia, we have a pretty close, uh. Pretty, pretty good understanding. Let me say of which companies af

In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony wrestle with market chaos as the US–China trade war hits pause. Cameron shares the challenges he faced creating a US buy list, digging into several interesting (and occasionally suspicious) tickers: a mortgage REIT, a Chinese fintech with a Cayman shell, and an impressively renewable-heavy Chilean utility. They debate governance red flags, explore deep value bets versus gut instinct, and examine why Enel Chile (ENIC) might be quietly powering the future. **Timestamps:** **[00:01:00]** – US–China trade tariffs pause **[00:06:00]** – **IVR (Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.)** – Is a REIT QAV-compatible? **[00:10:00]** – **XYF (X Financial)** – Cheap on paper, terrifying on governance? **[00:15:00]** – **EFXT (Enerflex Ltd.)** – CEO suddenly quit. Red flag alert. **[00:16:00]** – Dummy portfolio performance: up 52% annualized vs S&P500’s 31%. **[00:18:00]** – Deep dive: **ENIC (Enel Chile)** – Chile’s biggest electricity provider and renewable powerhouse.   Transcription Edited Copy of QAV U.S 5[00:00:00] Welcome to QAV America. This is episode five, I think, and we’re recording this on the 13th of May, Australian time. My name is Cameron Reilly. With me as always, my co-host who is on bad wifi in country New South Wales today. Tony Kynaston. are you? TK – Bateman’s Bay is still in New South Wales, isn’t it?TK: It is feels, with this wifi though, it feels like it’s in Africa, country news, Zimbabwe or something, and, and I shouldn’t be disrespectful to Zimbabwe’s wifi. It’s probably better than Bateman’s Bay’s.Cameron: you don’t take your starlink console with you when you go on the road.TK: No, this should be too big. I could probably strap it to the roof of the car, but.Cameron: Alright, well let’s get into the show for today. So the big news overnight is that the Trump administration and the Chinese administration had their meetings about the tariff and the tariffs and the [00:01:00] trade war, and they’ve agreed to some sort of 90 day pause. The US are dropping their tariffs on China from the ones that remain anyway, down from 145% down to 30.I think China’s dropped theirs from 125 down to 10. are still to be worked out. There will be more negotiations and if you ask me, it could have just started with negotiations instead of all of the posturing to begin with. But we’re back to where we are and the US market overnight spiked Australian market spiked as well, but.You know that from my perspective, Tony, it’s still sort of a chaotic period. I mean, the market jumps up, it jumps down based on the announcement of the day. But as we’ve talked about a number of times on our shows over the last few months since all of this tariff trade, war nonsense started, [00:02:00] it’s really hard for anyone running a business to predict is gonna be happening in the economy.A month from now, let alone a year or five years from now. It’s really hard for anyone to do any long-term business planning right now and investing and borrowing money and, and investing for the long term. I, I can’t really understand how anyone can be making those sorts of bets at this stage. It really seems to be a day by day proposition.TK: I, I agree with you. It’s a lot of companies in the US have have stopped forecasting their earnings for that very reason. But in tariffs with China is for 90 days. But that doesn’t mean that in, in three months time, things aren’t gonna change again. So they probably will. So it is hard. I, I guess, want to caution you on, on the word bets. I don’t think as invested, we’re making bets. We’re trying to make calculated decisions on which companies to buy at the right price. [00:03:00] So pull you up there. having said all that, I’m still comfortable buying shares. I know we are buying, I’m buying in Australia, but I’d be buying com.I’d be comfortable in the US as well. but yeah, we’ve gotta, we’ve gotta be more alert to movements and the share price that might trigger our three point trend line buys or sells than we normally would be. ’cause if we, there is a lot of volatility and a lot of announcements driving the market at the moment.Cameron: Yeah, when I said investment, I wasn’t talking about stock investors. I was talking about businesses. Borrowing money to invest in factories or stores or staff or infrastructure, really hard for them to know what’s gonna be happening in the market, down the track. I mean, you say it’s paused for 90 days, but who knows, it could be unpaused tomorrow.There’s really no logical reason or rationale going on here. It’s just seems to be [00:04:00] cra crazy idea of the day. And, political theater of the day. I, I don’t see how anyone can make any sort of rational decisions, but as you right, full rightly

In episode 4 of QAV America, Cameron and Tony dive into Warren Buffett’s retirement announcement, celebrating his monumental impact on value investing. They discuss his legacy, Berkshire Hathaway’s performance under his leadership, and his thoughts on the future of the U.S. and global markets. The episode includes personal reflections on Buffett’s influence, anecdotes from his annual meetings, and commentary on Berkshire’s strategic moves, like the recent reduction of its stake in Apple. Additionally, Tony provides a detailed analysis of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC, stock code CM), evaluating its recent performance and potential investment opportunities amidst global trade uncertainties. **Timestamps:** 1. **[00:00]** – Introduction and Warren Buffett’s retirement announcement. 6. **[11:00]** – CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) deep dive: market performance, CEO succession, and investment potential.   Transcription Transcript QAV U.S. 4 Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America, Tony Kynaston. I think this is episode four. We’re recording this on the 6th of May. Australian time just did an Australian show, uh, where we were covering some news around value investing and the big news and value investing this week. Of course, Tony the announcement of the retirement of your personal savior, uh, Warren Buffett. Which TK: Is, it’s not often yet, to be honest. It’s not often that I’ve had anybody in life, uh, anyone to look, look up to as. Far as Warren in life, they don’t come along very often, I don’t think who’ve made such a big change on my life. So yes, I’m happy to call him my personal savior. Charlie, Cameron: is your personal saver? In Charlie, you mean? Charlie’s also your personal saver? Charlie Munger. Yeah. TK: I, I neither [00:01:00] someone to look up to for grammar, but um, yes, Charlie and Warren are my personal saviors. Cameron: Well, we just talked about Berkshire Hathaway and Warren for about, uh, 20 minutes, so I’m gonna cut to that and we’ll be back to talk about an American company in a minute. I’m gonna cut to that. Warren Buffet TK: Yes. Big news. Cameron: Berkshire the 60th. Annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway. He announced that he is retiring this year. Um, his 60th and final performance, and to be honest, I mean I watched most of his bit TK: Oh, Cameron: Charlie. It’s not the Yeah, yeah. It’s TK: Okay. Cameron: Charlie. Right. It’s just, uh, you know, I keep waiting for Warren to do his bit and they go, what do you think Charlie and Charlie having some Bon Mo at the end of it. Some punchline. TK: Yeah. Greg Abels. No. Charlie, [00:02:00] no. Cameron: No. Is this the second year without Charlie or the first, I think it’s the second right. TK: It’s, Cameron: annual TK: second. Yeah, second. Cameron: Yeah. TK: he wasn’t there during Covid ’cause he had, he had to lock down. Cameron: That’s right. TK: Yeah. Cameron: Uh, so well look, it’s um, and Warren’s sounding his age too at 94. TK: yeah. Cameron: pretty croaky. He’s walking with a cane, but I watched, I dunno, maybe two hours of his thing. Like, still incredibly entertaining, articulate, just terrific telling stories about how a Berkshire Hathaway lab invented the rear vision mirror for a racing car. Uh, they used to have a, they used to have two guys in a racing car, one to look behind them, and their guy was sick and couldn’t make it, so they invented the rear vision mirrors. It is like, so if you’re wondering what Berkshire Hathaway companies are doing, just inventing things like rear vision mirrors for cars and stuff like that. There’s some subsidiary [00:03:00] of a subsidiary of a subsidiary that was involved in it. But yeah. TK: My favorite anecdote, I, I haven’t, I’ve only listened for the first half of it, and it’s available on both podcast and YouTube if anyone wants to do yourself a favor and, and sit down to four and a half hours of it. But, um, my favorite anecdote was, uh, when they were talking about the cash pile that Warren had built up and someone asked him from the audience, um, whether there weren’t enough, uh, fat pitches to swing at. And, uh, he said, well, yeah, it’s a bit like life. Um, uh, a a 10 year old’s gonna have a lower chance of dying tomorrow than a 94-year-old. so you don’t always get the same odds every time, the market, wherever you are on the market cycle. and, and then he said, as to longevity, it’s, I also point out that, that fe females live longer than males. I tried to convince Charlie to have a sex change. Cameron: It is a great line. It was a great line. Yeah. TK: Uh. Cameron: [00:04:00] kid got up and asked him, said that he’d always advocated, um, moving slowly and were there times when moving quickly had benefited them? Have you heard that one? TK:

In this episode of QAV US Edition, Cameron and Tony dissect the chaos and opportunities in the US markets. They kick off by comparing the irrational optimism in the markets to political theater, dig into key differences between US and Australian financial regulations, and discuss how these differences impact value investing with their checklist model. Cameron shares the drama of a near-instant buy-and-sell on SK Telecom ($SKM) after a data breach, and delivers a “pulled pork” deep dive on Danaos Corporation ($DAC), a Greek-based container ship owner navigating choppy geopolitical waters and tariffs. The guys debate the impact of Trump’s trade war, share buybacks, and whether free cash flow even matters in value investing. **[00:00:00]** – Intro & US Market Update **[00:03:00]** – QAV Portfolio Performance > Cameron’s US portfolio up 53% since Sept 2023 vs. S&P500’s 24%. Discussion of underperformance post-Trump. **[00:04:45]** – Why QAV Ignores Market Noise **[00:05:15]** – Tony’s US-AU Market Comparison **[00:19:00]** – Pulled Pork Intro: Danaos Corp ($DAC) **[00:20:00]** – $SKM Buy/Sell Drama **[00:22:00]** – Overview of Danaos Corp ($DAC) **[00:48:30]** – Sentiment Charts **[00:49:00]** – Final Thoughts & Listener Q&A Invite   Transcription QAV US 3 Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV, the US Edition episode three. is currently the 29th of April, 2025. My name is Cameron Reilly with me coming from his palatial, uh, golf Hut in Victoria. Tony Kynaston. How are you? Tk. TK: Oh, I am good, cam, how are you? Cameron: Good. just did. Now talking about the Australian market, now we’re gonna talk about the US market. TK: far Cameron: you say about the US market? Well, yeah, look, it’s uh, still crazy times. Um, bit crazier over there than it is here. You’ve been, uh, paying a little bit of attention in the last week. Do you have any insights on what’s going on in the US market? Tony? TK: Well, I think we just sneaked this show out now ’cause the market was up [00:01:00] last night. Um. Cameron: Yeah. TK: before people lose their minds again, when it goes down again with, with something going on over there. As I said before in the Australian show, we’re, we’re about to go to the polls here in an election and the market care less. Cameron: Hmm. TK: is intently focused on reading the uh, white, the White House tea leaves in the US market Cameron: Yeah. TK: completely Cameron: market. Both the Dow Jones and the s and p 500 are sort of up, uh, this week, as is the Australian market for reasons that aren’t very clear. I mean, nothing has really changed. I mean, the Trump administration seems to be pulling back a little bit on the tough tariff talk and claiming that the Chinese have reached out to them. Chinese are like, no, we haven’t. TK: No, it wasn’t us. Cameron: Yeah. Uh, but I don’t know. The market seems to be a little bit more optimistic over [00:02:00] there. It’s almost not quite back to where it was before the tariff announcements, but um, it’s certainly getting back up to towards there. Yeah. Liberation day. But of course, as our longtime listeners, uh, would know from the Australian side of things. We don’t really pay that much attention to what’s going on in the markets. Uh, it doesn’t really affect our investing strategy much at all. It just means that sometimes we sell more than other times. uh, really we’re just looking at individual companies, either the stocks in our portfolio and looking to see whether or not they breach one of our selling triggers. And if they do, we sell them and then we see what there is to buy based on our. Checklist, the framework that you’ve developed over the last 30 odd years. And, uh, as a, as a, I guess, an indication of that I can talk about our [00:03:00] portfolio. I. Because I did start a US portfolio a little bit over a year ago, and uh, it’s doing okay. It’s picked up a little bit all time, so. Uh, started it in, uh, September, 2023. It’s, it, it’s currently tracking it around 53% return over that time the s and p 500. About 24% over that time. At one point before the, uh, US presidential elections, it was up around a hundred percent our portfolio. So Trump has managed to halve. in whatever that is, six months since the election. Good job. Hmm. But if I look at the last, uh, sort of month, I. [00:04:00] We’re down about 3% in the last 30 days. The s and p 500 is down about 1% over that same period of time. So I’ve had to sell a few things. I’ve had, I’ve struggled buying things over there. Two recently and, um, the, this week I bought something and then sold it immediately, uh, like a day later. And I’ll tell you that story. When I get to do my pulled pork, my deep dive in a minute. Do you have anything you wanna share before I get into my deep dive of the US market? Tony, do you

In this episode of the QAV US Edition, Cameron and Tony dive into the latest performance of the US portfolio, which continues to outpace the S&P 500 with a stunning 70% return. They break down the impact of Trump’s erratic trade policies on global markets, particularly the shipping industry, and reflect on how uncertainty is roiling investor sentiment. Cameron does a “Pulled Pork” deep dive into Mexican cement giant **Cemex (CX)** — a segment that unexpectedly transforms into a passionate, trivia-filled masterclass on the history, chemistry, and environmental impact of cement. They also touch on stock performance, issues with Stockopedia data accuracy, and the curious case of ethical awards for companies that belch CO₂. **[00:00] – Intro & Portfolio Update** • US portfolio up ~70%, vs. S&P 500 ~27% • Market volatility linked to Trump’s economic policies **[01:30] – Trump’s Tariffs & Inflation** • Discussion of Trump’s promise to end inflation • Fed holds rates steady despite inflation concerns • Article references: _New York Times_ and _Wall Street Journal_ **[04:30] – Policy Uncertainty & Market Reactions** • Trump walks back tariff threats, markets bounce • Impact on shipping sector and the broader economy **[06:00] – Trump’s Shipping Policy Bombshell** • Referenced stocks: • **ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM)** • **Euroseas Ltd. (ESEA)** • **Diana Shipping (DSX)** • **Teekay Tankers (TK)** • **StealthGas (GASS)** • Implications of potential executive order penalizing China-made vessels • Possible 35% cost increases and collapse of coal exports **[10:00] – Interpreting Shipping Stock Performance** • Mixed performance post-policy threats • How uncertainty clouds stock analysis **[12:30] – Listener Question (Trent) on Buy List Turnover** • Referenced stock: **American Airlines (AAL)** • Cameron admits to possible filtering errors or Excel issues • Observations on unusually high turnover in US buy list **[16:30] – Cement Deep Dive: Cemex (CX)** • Bought CX to replace **Consumer Portfolio Services (CPSS)** • Might sell it again due to inaccurate data and cement downtrend **[18:00] – Cemex Overview & Website Woes** • Headquartered in Mexico • Operates in over 50 countries • Issues with Stockopedia data (e.g., prop cap and market cap errors) **[20:00] – Brutalist Love Letter & History of Cement** • Cameron waxes lyrical about brutalist architecture and concrete • Discusses the difference between cement and concrete • Shares personal bread-baking tangent **[25:00] – Cement’s Dirty Carbon Secret** • Cement responsible for up to 8% of global CO₂ • Cemex’s “Vertua” low-carbon brand • Efforts to reduce carbon footprint, including hydrogen tech in UK **[30:00] – Cemex’s Global History & Ethical Contradictions** • Ethical award win despite major labour violations in 2019 • Venezuela nationalization saga • DOJ antitrust lawsuit over US acquisition **[33:00] – Ethics or PR Spin?** • Cameron and Tony poke fun at the “world’s most ethical company” label • Observations about cement, corruption, and The Sopranos **[35:00] – Pantheon & Roman Cement Trivia Bonanza** • Fascinating history of Roman concrete • Natural cement formations and hydraulic cement • Pantheon’s 2,000-year-old concrete dome still standing **[43:00] – Back to the Numbers: Problems with Stockopedia’s Data** • Cemex prop cap appears wildly off • Price-to-cash flow probably closer to 14 than 0.01 • Cement commodity in a downtrend • Plan to exit the CX position due to new analysis **[49:00] – Wrap-Up** • Learning something new: even about cement • Realising Stockopedia isn’t always right • Good humour, humility, and a little autistic diagnosis from Chrissy Transcription QAV US 002 Audio Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV US Edition. Episode two. Tony, how are you, Tony? TK: I am well, thank you about the same as I was five minutes ago when we were chatting on the screen show. Cameron: Oh, well, just, yeah. You know, you’re ruining the illusion. No one wants, well, no one wants to know how the sausage is made. Tony. TK: No. Okay. Cameron: Um. TK: good to, good to see you, cam. It’s been what, two weeks? Cameron: Ah, well. Quickly, we’ll get into it because we don’t have a lot of time today. I just wanted uh, on our US portfolio performance. Uh, ’cause it’s been a couple of weeks when since we’ve talked about it, all right, um, still, uh, all time up around about 70% return versus the s and p 500, about 27% over the same period of time. So again, it’s doing not triple, but I don’t know, two [00:01:00] and a half times the s and p 500. It’s been, uh, a rocky time in the markets over in the US obviously in the last six or eight weeks, and I had a story on that in the New York Times. Uh, the economy, the Fed, and the rates, Mr. Trump promised to end inflation starting on day one. And declared in his inaugural address that the Golden Age of America begins right now. Ins

In the premiere episode of the QAV U.S. podcast, Cameron Reilly and Tony Kynaston introduce American listeners to their established value investing approach, known as QAV (Quality at Value). They discuss their checklist-driven, rule-based investing methodology designed to identify undervalued stocks without emotional decision-making. Tony overviews their system, emphasizing its simplicity, low emotional involvement, and focus on long-term consistency and low risk compared to speculative investing. They address recent portfolio adjustments, such as selling Lands’ End (LE) and Global Ship Lease (GSL), and provide a detailed analysis of ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, highlighting its strong financial metrics and explaining their rationale for investment decisions. ### Episode Timestamps:– [00:00:00] Introduction to QAV U.S. Podcast with Cameron Reilly and Tony Kynaston– [00:01:00] Overview of the QAV investing methodology– [00:03:00] Importance of removing emotions from investment decisions– [00:10:00] Differences between investing and speculating– [00:19:00] Portfolio update: Selling Lands’ End (LE) at 70% profit and Global Ship Lease (GSL) at 6% profit– [00:25:00] Review of top-performing stocks in the portfolio including Willis Lease Finance (WLFC), Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior (BLX), and Enova International (ENVA)– [00:28:00] Macroeconomic concerns: Inflation and tariffs impacting markets– [00:34:00] Pulled Pork segment: Analysis of ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM), emphasizing its financial strength and recent positive sentiment signals   Transcription QAV U.S. 001 Audio ​[00:00:00] Cameron: Welcome to QAV U. S. edition, 001, 001, to the Market. is Cameron Reilly, my co host Tony Kynaston, a. k. a. TK. How are you, TK? TK: Very well, thanks, Cam. Am I supposed to speak in another dialect? Hi y’all! Cameron: we’ll do some American accents. Uh, we’ll, we’ll, we’ll phase in and out. so for people who are listening to this for the first time, welcome. For American listeners who haven’t listened to the Australian show, just a quick background. So Tony and I have been doing, uh, this investing show for five or six years in Australia. Basically, we teach a method of value investing that Tony has developed over the [00:01:00] last 30 odd years we call QAV, which stands for quality at value, basically identifying quality stocks. and buying them when we can get them at the right value or a discount to intrinsic valuation. Tony over many decades developed this system for himself we’ve been teaching it on a podcast, as I said, for five or six years, focusing on the Australian market because that’s where we both live. But over the last couple of years, we’ve had Listeners in the United States say to us, Hey, we’d really like to have you talk about the American market so we can apply it to that. so about a year ago, I did develop a version of our checklist for the American market. I built a test portfolio and it’s done reasonably well [00:02:00] compared to the S& P 500 over the last year, year and a half. And so we thought it was probably time to start a US version of the show. Now if you want to know the details about Tony’s background or the QAV system or the checklist, we’re not going to cover that. Today, because we have a couple of dedicated episodes that goes over that in great detail. If you go into our archives, find episode 301, 303, and 305. You can hear us talk about those things for a few hours and get a good sense of how it all works. we tend to do in our weekly shows is we about the portfolio, any big movements in the portfolio. We talk about what’s going on in the markets, any big news stories, either involving the market in general, or the, the stocks that we have an interest in in the market. Get a sense for what’s going on out there. And I [00:03:00] think that’s where we’re going to start. And I quite honestly. Because we haven’t really played a great deal in the U. market, even though Tony lived in Toronto for, what, about five years, Tony? TK: Yep, Cameron: And that was, what, about ten years ago? How long TK: I’ve been back six years. Cameron: Oh, right. Um, but even when you were over there, you didn’t really invest in the North TK: No, Cameron: right? You TK: no, Cameron: invested in Australia. TK: yeah, that’s right. Cameron: But, Tony, you developed this system. Uh, by classic value investors, many of whom are or were, uh, Americans, guys like Buffett, TK: Mhm, Cameron: Peter Lynch, et cetera, et cetera, and, and then of taking bits and pieces of their teachings and building your own system around that. And of course, the theory behind value investing should [00:04:00] be applicable regardless of the market you’re in. Basically, we’re TK: mhm. Cameron: well run busin