Odd Lots

Crypto is hot this year again. In 2020, we've not only seen a substantial rally across a lot of different coins, there's been an emergency of new experiments, categories, and protocols. Is it more sustainable this time around, or is it going to fizzle like it did last time? On this episode, we speak with Catherine Coley, the CEO of Binance US about trends in this market, why she left the traditional finance world to go crypto, and where all of this new activity is actually going. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The use of so-called "alternative data" has been gathering attention for some time. Investors have been looking at things like credit cards or satellite photos of Walmart parking lots for insights into businesses before earnings or official government numbers come out. But during this crisis, alternative data has really come into its own. The speed of the crash and recovery happened so fast, it was clear that traditional numbers weren’t timely enough to get a read on what was going on. On this week's episode, we speak with Ben Breitholtz of Arbor Data Science, who explains how he's been able to monitor thousands of different categories of Google Search queries to know instantly when the recovery started to happen and what sectors of the economy were leading the way. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the most intriguing subplots to the 2020 stock market boom has been the speculative fervor with which investors have dived into this market. And it's not just that participants have bought a lot of stock, but that they've been using aggressive options strategies to do so. What's more, it's a range of players doing it, from retail traders on Robinhood (and other platforms) to large institutions like SoftBank. On this episode, we speak with Benn Eifert of QVR Advisors, who breaks it all down.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

SPACs have been around a long time. The basic premise is that a group of people raise a bunch of money from public market investors, with the premise of then going out to buy a specific, individual company. They're seen as an alternative to IPOs. While historically they've had a reputation for some questionable deals, this year they've been booming. All kinds of big names like Bill Ackman and Paul Ryan (yes, that one) are getting in on the action. On this episode, we speak with Kelly Driscoll, one of the founders of the SPAC Fusion Acquisition Corp, who explains why these entities are so hot right now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's fun to talk about what money is, but often it's hard to connect the dots and make it actually relevant to the discussion of the economy and markets. But, in this episode, we do just that. Our guest is Jacob Goldstein, a co-host of Planet Money and the author of the new book, “Money: The True Story Of A Made-Up Thing”. He explains the story of money market mutual funds, how they constituted a new form of money, and how they contributed to the Great Financial Crisis. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Paul McCulley is a former Managing Director at PIMCO and a legend of the industry, having helped coin phrases such as "shadow banking" and the "Minsky moment." On this episode, we discuss the history of economic policy ideas, starting with the monetary and supply side revolutions roughly forty years ago, and how they've dominated thinking until today. But the break is coming. He says that we are "unambiguously" on the verge of a profound change to a more democratically managed economy (one more driven by fiscal policy), a change that will have significant changes for the real economy as well as markets and portfolio management.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Fed is facing historic challenges for two reasons. The first is the coronavirus and the task of facilitating the economic recovery. The second challenge is one that precedes the crisis, and it has to do with how the Fed operates generally as well as the limits of effective monetary policy. How can the Fed better achieve its goals? Can monetary policy spread the benefits of growth more broadly? How can it avoid snuffing out growth prematurely? On this week’s episode, we’re joined by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who is thinking about all of these things and more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are some sectors of the real estate market, such as suburban residential housing, that are doing just fine throughout this crisis. However, other areas are facing true existential risk. The value of commercial real estate in big cities is extremely uncertain due to the combination of the virus itself, potential migration out of cities, and the fact that so many people can work from home. On this episode, we speak with Mosaic Real Estate Partners Managing Partner Ethan Penner, who has been described as the father of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities, on real estate market structure and what it means for the billions of dollars worth of assets that are on the line.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When COVID hit, people had visions of a plunge in home prices and a massive wave of evictions. So far, that largely hasn’t played out. On this episode, we speak with Ivan Kaufman, the CEO of Arbor Realty Trust, a $1.4 billion player in the real estate finance market, about what’s going on, and how the industry has weathered the storm.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the United States, Black Americans have experienced persistently higher levels of unemployment than their White counterparts. While the Fed has focused on aggregate unemployment levels, racial disparities has historically not been a major focus. On this episode, our guest says it should be. Massachusetts Representative Ayanna Pressley argues that monetary policy can and should be a tool of ending racial inequality. She discusses the history of this idea, and how it can work in practice. Pressley also talked to us about progressive economic policies for the future.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The pandemic has been brutal for restaurants and other indoor entertainment venues. So imagine running a space that's a restaurant, a bowling alley, an arcade, and bar all in one. Our guest on this episode does just that. Adam Ozimek is the co-founder of Decades in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. He's also the chief economist at online freelance marketplace UpWork. We talked about the crisis from the micro-perspective (running the space) and the macro-perspective (what he sees in the broader economy right now). He also explained what we need from a policy perspective to save the restaurant industry right now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For years, people have identified the lack of fiscal transfers and fiscal burden sharing as one of the glaring architectural flaws of the European economy (particularly within the eurozone). One positive that may result from this crisis is the potential for that to change. Last month, EU governments made an agreement to establish a recovery fund that would see wealthy, thriving countries (like Germany) directly aid in the economic recovery of countries that are struggling (such as Italy). It’s something people hoped to see during the eurozone crisis of nearly a decade ago, but which never quite panned out. On this episode, we speak with former ECB Vice-President Vítor Constâncio about the historic step, and the future for central banking at a time when fiscal firepower is becoming even more important.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In light of the massive disruption to the economy, there’s a widespread view that things have been permanently altered, that fiscal policy must take a more active role in economic stabilization, and that the job of central banks will inevitably change. While this is a trendy thing to say now, the guest on this episode has been anticipating it for a while. Viktor Shvets is a Managing Director at the investment bank Macquarie Group Limited and the author of the new book, The Great Rupture: Three Empires, Four Turning Points, and the Future of Humanity. He explains how the old model of economic growth, which he argues widened inequality by being dependent on the growth in asset values, must give way, and that an attempt to return to to the pre-crisis model will be a disaster.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For years, macro hedge fund managers have been stalking the Hong Kong Dollar. Since 1983, the currency has been pegged at around 7.75 per US dollar, and it basically has never budged from that. But that hasn’t stopped investors from taking big bets, with potentially major payoffs, that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority would sever the peg in some way. So why do traders keep making this bet, and is now the moment when it finally pays off? On this episode, we speak with Christopher Wiegand, the Chief Investment Officer and Co-Founder of Royal Bridge Capital, about the history of the Hong Kong Dollar, and the factors that have made betting against it such a loser over the years.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With so many people working at home, bored, and with no sports to bet on, there’s been an incredible explosion of retail stock market trading. One service, Robinhood, in particular has gotten a lot of attention due to its free trading, and videogame-like appeal to young users. But how are they really making money on those free trades, and how does the economics of the business work these days? On this episode, we speak with Larry Tabb, the Head of Market Structure Research at Bloomberg Intelligence, who explains how it all works.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The killers of Berta Caceres had every reason to believe they’d get away with murder. More than 100 other environmental activists in Honduras had been killed in the previous five years, yet almost no one had been punished for the crimes. Bloomberg’s Blood River follows a four-year quest to find her killers – a twisting trail that leads into the country’s circles of power.Blood River is out now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Switching careers is always difficult. But former New Yorker staff writer Maria Konnikova did it in dramatic fashion. Konnikova decided that the best way to learn about the role of skill and luck in life is through poker, and so she decided to become a great poker player. And she made it happen, winning just over $300,000 in tournament play in a couple of years. On this episode, we speak with her about how she did it, and her new book, "The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned To Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win”.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the virus crushing economic activity, local governments have had to cut spending and rely on Federal support in order to maintain basic services. But one town in Washington is also trying something else. Tenino, Washington has printed its own wooden currency to stimulate activity, and help out its residents and businesses that have been hit by the crisis. On this episode, we speak with Mayor Wayne Fournier about how he got the idea, how it’s going, and what he plans to do next.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In response to the economic crisis, governments around the world have engaged in stimulative policies that might be characterized as “Keynesian” in nature. But what did Keynes really believe, and how did he form his own ideas? On this episode we speak with Zach Carter, an editor at Huffington Post, and the author of the new book The Price of Peace: Money, Democracy and the Life of John Maynard Keynes. We discussed Keynes the individual as well as his ideas and their importance today.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Officially, the US unemployment rate stands at 11%. This is higher than the worst levels of the financial crisis. And there are reasons to think that the actual state of unemployment is even worse. There’s a wide variety of views on how to address this, but what about the government simply guaranteeing everyone a right to a job? On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Pavlina R. Tcherneva, an economist at Bard College, and the author of The Case for a Job Guarantee about what the government can do right now to end the crisis.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The world has gotten angrier in recent years, and the coronavirus crisis seems likely to have accelerated the trend. So what does this say about the economy, and what does it mean for policy going forward? On this episode, we speak with Eric Lonergan, a macro hedge fund manager, and the co-author of the new book “Angrynomics" about his study of the emotion of anger -- why it exists, what purpose it serves, and what it can tell us about the future of economic policy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Central banks and fiscal authorities around the world have taken extraordinary measures to stem the economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis. But what’s proven most effective, and what have central banks learned over the last several months? On this episode, we speak with Hyun Song Shin, economic adviser and head of research at the Bank for International Settlements, about the new policymaker toolbox that has emerged and what more needs to be done.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For years and years, the Chinese economy has been characterized as a bubble, with too much debt, and a history of badly thought out, state-directed investment. Yet, for all of the dire warnings, the economy has continued to grow, and there hasn’t been a reckoning. So why is this? Is it only a matter of time before things all fall apart? Such questions are even more urgent in the wake of the COVID crisis, and questions the stability of the Chinese growth model during a time of weakened demand for Chinese-made goods. On this week’s episode, we speak with Tom Orlik, the Chief Economist at Bloomberg, and the author of the new book "China: The Bubble That Never Pops." He explains China’s resilience, and what could ultimately come back to haunt the Chinese economy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Adam Neumann had a vision: to make his startup WeWork a wildly successful company that would change the world. He convinced thousands of other people -- customers, employees, investors -- that he could make that dream a reality. And for a while, he did. He was one of the most successful startup founders in the world. But then, in the span of just a few months, everything changed.Foundering is a new serialized podcast from the journalists at Bloomberg Technology. This season, we’ll tell you the story of WeWork, a company that captured the startup boom of the 2010s and also may be remembered as a spectacular bust that marked the end of an era.Foundering premieres June 25, 2020. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nobody knows what the post-COVID future looks like. But there are some lessons to be learned from previous pandemics. On today’s episode we speak with Jamie Catherwood of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, aka the “Finance History Guy.” Jamie talks to us about what he’s learned from studying both the Spanish Flu and the Black Death about what this crisis means for markets and the economy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chamath Palihapitiya is the CEO of Social Capital, the Chairman of Virgin Galactic and a partial owner of the Golden State Warriors basketball team. He’s also been an outspoken critic of the way the crisis and economic recovery have been handled. In April, he famously railed against the airline bailouts in a CNBC clip that went viral. On today’s podcast, he talks to us about how he would have handled the bailout differently, and why he sees a reckoning coming for powerful tech companies in the near future.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the summer of 2004, Google went public and, as everyone knows, it’s done phenomenally well. What’s less known is that a few weeks later, Domino’s Pizza also went public. What’s crazy is that the stock has performed almost identically since then. On this episode, we speak with Jonathan Maze, the Editor-in-Chief of Restaurant Business Magazine about how they delivered this incredible performance.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the characteristics of the pre-crisis (and perhaps also the post-crisis) economy is the presence of very low interest rates, and financial asset prices that are expensive by historical standards. Of course, a lot of people are inclined to blame the Fed for this. But the real issue precedes the Fed, and in fact the Fed (and other central banks) are only responding to political decisions that depress consumption, investment and inflation. On this episode, we speak with Jon Turek, the author of the Cheap Convexity Blog, about how policies all around the world that suppress consumption and encourage exports are the real policy choices that lead to low rates and expensive financial assets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As many active fund managers have discovered in recent years, it’s extremely hard to find a sustainable edge in investing. But for people who put in hard work to discover opportunities off the beaten track, it may still be possible to find undiscovered value. On this episode, we speak with Burton Flynn and Ivan Nechunaev of Terra Nova Capital Advisors about their highly unusual approach to doing research. The two of them, along with their families, traveled the globe, spending a month at a time in different countries to find places to put their money. They explained to us why this approach was important, what they learned, which countries excite them the most, and how these markets are dealing with the COVID crisis. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to Part V of the Odd Lots LIBOR series, in which Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal take a look at life after LIBOR, the interest rate tied to more than $350 trillion worth of financial assets.For our final episode in our series on LIBOR, we look at what this particular crisis has meant for LIBOR and the transition process. We speak with Josh Younger, a managing director at JPMorgan, who looks at what LIBOR itself did during the worst of the market stress. He also identified specific ways that the market volatility may impede some of the target dates for moving off the benchmark index.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to Part IV of the Odd Lots LIBOR series, in which Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal take a look at life after LIBOR, the interest rate tied to more than $350 trillion worth of financial assets.It's one thing to talk about transitioning away from LIBOR, but it's another thing to actually do it. On the fourth episode of the series, we speak with Tom Wipf, Vice Chairman of Institutional Securities at Morgan Stanley, and the chair of the committee charged with sunsetting the rate. He takes us inside the effort to replace an interest rate that is entrenched in millions of financial contracts and tells us how it’s going.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to Part III of the Odd Lots LIBOR series, in which Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal take a look at life after LIBOR, the interest rate tied to more than $350 trillion worth of financial assets.SOFR is the Federal Reserve’s preferred replacement for LIBOR, but it’s not the only alternative reference rate around. On the third episode of the series, we speak with Richard Sandor, a serial innovator in financial markets, and the CEO at American Financial Exchange. He explains why he thinks his own proposed rate, called AMERIBOR, could be a suitable benchmark and replacement for Libor.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to Part II of the Odd Lots LIBOR series, in which Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal take a look at life after LIBOR, the interest rate tied to more than $350 trillion worth of financial assets.Troubles with LIBOR have kickstarted a massive project to transition to a new benchmark interest rate for financial markets. On the second episode of our series, we speak with Joe Abate, money market strategist at Barclays, about the proposed replacement known as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, or SOFR. How is it different to LIBOR and what are the downsides of having an interest rate tied to actual marketplace transactions?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to the Odd Lots LIBOR series, in which Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal take a look at life after LIBOR, the interest rate tied to more than $350 trillion worth of financial assets.On the first episode in our LIBOR series, we speak with Richard Robb, a former interest rate trader who was one of the first to warn about potential manipulation of the Libor rate to which trillions of dollars worth of financial assets are tied. Robb, who’s now CEO of the hedge fund Christofferson, Robb & Company and teaches at Columbia University, warned of problems in the interest rate as early as the mid-1990s. He also had a front-row seat to witness the benchmark’s downfall after the 2008 financial crisis. He talks about what went wrong.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When people talk about the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global commerce, they often refer to it as a unique privilege of the United States that its currency is the world’s safe haven. But it’s not so clear who really benefits from the unique role played by the greenback. For one thing, there are wide swathes of U.S. workers whose industries are hurt by its strength. On this episode, we speak with Yakov Feygin, the Assistant Director of the Future of Capitalism project at the Berggruen Institute about the global winners and losers of the dollar system.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The economic crisis will result in an extraordinary amount of pain for emerging markets. In addition to the health disruption, the global economic collapse means that in many cases, exports have come to a standstill. So how can poorer countries be helped right now? On this episode, we speak with three experts in the field of sovereign debt. Lee Buchheit is formerly at Cleary Gottlieb and is considered to be the world’s foremost expert on sovereign debt law and restructurings. Mitu Gulati is a professor at Duke University School of Law and Ugo Panizza is a professor at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva. The three have been working throughout the crisis to help put together a comprehensive aid plan for EMs. They talk to us about what it would look like, and why moving it forward has proven to be so difficult.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Even with the recent stock market rally, expectations are poor for a robust recovery in the U.S. So what does history teach us about what works and what doesn’t? Richard Werner is an economist at Linacre College at the University of Oxford, and the proponent of what he calls the “Quantity Theory of Credit.” On this episode, he tells us about what he learned studying years of the Japanese economy, and what it means for the current crisis.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How should the government address the economic crisis? On this episode, we talk with Mark Cuban, the Shark Tank co-host and billionaire owner of the Dallas Mavericks, who has been outspoken about what he sees as necessary to address this crisis. He explains to us why he thinks the government should directly get in the business of hiring millions of people, along with other ideas to keep people employed and stimulate demand. We also talk about the NBA, his plan to fix healthcare, as well as his future political ambitions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the acute phase of the health crisis having faded in China, factory activity has ramped up again. One big problem though: With the economy so depressed everywhere else, demand for the goods made in those factories has fallen off a cliff. This is just one way in which the virus is massively exacerbating trade imbalances that existed prior to this crisis, and which are now shaking the global economic order. On this episode, we speak with Matt Klein, an economics columnist at Barron’s, and the co-author of the new book Trade Wars Are Class Wars about the interplay of the crisis, world trade, geopolitics, and domestic political tensions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Countries around the world are undergoing an unprecedented, simultaneous real economic shock. So how should policymakers respond? Richard Koo is the Chief Economist at the Nomura Research institute, and is well known for having popularized the concept of the “Balance Sheet Recession” drawing on his work from Japan’s post-bubble era. In today’s episode, he talks about how his work applies to this crisis, what can be done to revive growth, and why the aftermath will be so difficult.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We’ve seen a huge market crash this year and a number of firms reporting portfolio losses. So why were so many big investors crowded into the same trades, and what does it say about investing as a whole? Should investors be playing up to their competitive advantage, or following the crowd to profit from momentum? Steven Abrahams, head of investment strategy at Amherst Pierpont Securities, has written a new book about competitive advantages in investing. We talk to him about how different types of investors place their money and why some portfolios can survive better than others.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

During the last crisis, the economist Nouriel Roubini earned the nickname “Dr. Doom” for his ominous prognostications about the economy and financial system. While he prefers the moniker “Dr. Realist” Roubini is once again extremely negative. On this week’s episode he explains why he sees a poor recovery, then a bout of inflation, and then ultimately a depression in the wake of this crisis.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The hunt is on for a clinical therapy to prevent or treat COVID-19. But what’s the best way to go about this? How can governments accelerate this process? And what can governments do now to help a robust economic recovery? On this week’s Odd Lots, we speak with Bill Janeway, an economist and venture capitalist, who has written extensively on how the government can accelerate innovation by the private sector. He explains how his thoughts translate into the medical space and the post-crisis economy overall.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In 2018, Columbia history professor Adam Tooze published his magisterial work “Crashed”, which framed the Great Financial Crisis as essentially a crisis of the global dollar system (as opposed to merely a housing bubble). Now we’re experiencing numerous systemic frailties all at the same time, amid extraordinary difficult times for the real economy, the financial system, and virtually every government around the world. On this week’s episode, Tooze compares and contrasts the last crisis to this one, and how it might permanently change our world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The fate of the economy remains extremely unclear. However there is little doubt that the Fed has taken dramatic steps to arrest the crisis. Not only has Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve dusted off old tools that were designed during the last crisis, it’s engaged in unconventional actions, such as lending directly to municipal authorities, as well as becoming a player in the market for private sector corporate debt. Amid this crisis, Nathan Tankus, a researcher at the Modern Money Network, has emerged as one of the foremost experts on what the Fed has done, and what it’s capable of doing, through his widely read newsletter. He joined us on this episode to explain and contextualize the historic nature of the Fed’s actions so far.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With major economies around the world coming to a screeching halt, emerging markets are in a squeeze of historic proportions. Not only are they being buffeted by a domestic health crisis, but export industries are getting clobbered at the same time as access to dollars is drying up. On this episode, we speak with Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations on the historic nature of this episode, which countries are particularly vulnerable, and what policies might allow for a way out.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Commerce and payments are increasingly digital. This shift from physical to electronic is one that governments and businesses are eager to accelerate for a host of reasons. But what gets lost when we no longer have access to physical cash? On this episode, we speak with Rohan Grey, President of The Modern Money Network and the research director of the Digital Fiat Currency Institute about how governments can introduce digital currencies that enable electronic commerce, while preserving the privacy protections of physical cash.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of March, Congress passed the CARES Act in an attempt to mitigate some of the massive economic devastation being caused by the coronavirus crisis. A key piece of the legislation includes grants for small businesses that keep employees on their payroll during the emergency. On this episode, we speak with Florida Senator Marco Rubio about the program, what's working, what isn't, and what it will take to move the economy back towards full employment. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the U.S. economy going into a deep slump, the Federal government has attempted to counteract the pain by increasing spending. But for cities and states, it’s virtually impossible for them to run counter-cyclical fiscal policy. Furthermore, the crisis is draining local coffers due to public health expenditure and the collapse of tax revenue. This has already led to the start of a state and local austerity wave (spending cuts, layoffs, etc.) that could take years to reverse. On this week’s episode, we speak with three people who have been writing about this aspect of the crisis, and how it could be addressed by both the Fed and the U.S. Treasury. We’re joined by Skanda Amarnath of Employ America, Yakov Feygin of the Berggruen Institute, and Alex Williams, a grad student at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, to discuss the shape of the problem and the way back to economic health.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Earlier this year on Odd Lots, we did an episode about Korean structured investment products that were sold to retail investors, whose performance was tied to various market indices around the world. Crucially, those payouts were premised on there not being a major crash in those world markets. Obviously, we’ve seen quite the crash. So, for this week’s episode, we’ve gone back to Benn Eifert, the CIO of QVR Advisors, to check out the state of them now. And we also talk, more broadly, about the extreme volatility we’ve seen around the world, and what drove that, and whether or not we’ve seen the worst.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.