Odd Lots

The economy is in uncharted territory in more ways that one right now. Coming out of the worst of the pandemic, we're seeing a rapid pace of GDP growth, along with elevated inflation readings the likes of which we haven't seen in years. Beyond that, policymakers have engaged in historically aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion. The Fed, in particular, is almost a year into a new framework (unveiled last August at Jackson Hole) that aims to avoid certain mistakes of the past. So we sat down with Rob Kaplan, who has been the President of the Dallas Fed since 2015, to get his assessment of the situation right now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sam Bankman-Fried is arguably the most important and powerful person in crypto. His crypto exchange FTX just raised $900 million and is growing like crazy. Meanwhile, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Matt Levine probably knows more about market structure than any other journalist. So, on this episode we paired them up for an in-depth conversation about how crypto really works, how it's different from traditional finance, and where it's all going.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

America's ports are a key source of congestion contributing to supply chain disruptions rippling through the economy. Things have gotten a little better, but very slowly. And the disruptions are expected to continue for quite some time. To understand more about what's going on, we spoke with Gene Seroka, the Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, to understand how bad the problems are, and how they will eventually be fixed.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When you think about building a new home, obviously you think of various constraints regarding land, labor, and raw materials. But, of course, you can't build a new home without other basics, like windows, sinks, and bathtubs (or showers). And, just like everything else, these are now in short supply. On this episode, we speak with Trey Northrup, leader of the Americas at LIXIL, which sells bathtubs and other plumbing basics under various brands, including American Standard, Grohe, and about the stresses on the industry and when they're expected to ease.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You can't talk about supply chains without talking about warehouses. Basically everything we buy at some point eventually sits in a warehouse. But warehouses themselves are changing. Whereas at one point, they were simple and straightforward — goods come in before getting trucked to retail outlets — today they're massively complex, thanks to e-commerce and needing to deal with returns. On this episode, we speak with Mark Manduca, the CIO of the logistics firm GXO, about warehouses during the pandemic and what the future looks like.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the past year it's become clear that traditional economics doesn't necessarily do a great job of accounting for real world problems like transport gridlock or irrational decision makers. For instance, sawmills' first response to the Covid crisis was to cut back production because they were scarred by the memories of the 2008 housing bust. Container shipping issues have caused widespread supply chain issues, and so on and so on. Enter complexity economics, which views the economy as the outcome of decisions by sometimes irrational participants who are constantly interacting and learning from each other. In this version of economics, nothing is ever stable or at equilibrium and everything is always changing. Brian Arthur, economist at the Santa Fe Institute and visiting researcher at PARC, explains why complexity economics might be the perfect way of viewing the world right now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation is running hot these days. But, even when the official measures were considerably cooler, there were many people who were skeptical and insisted that inflation was running hot and rampant. It turns out, nobody really experiences inflation similarly, and one's own consumption and behavioral patterns will have a big impact on their outlook. On this episode, we speak with Berkeley professor Ulrike Malmendier, whose work has shown how one's behavior (where you shop) and history (what conditions were like earlier in your life) can inform views and perceptions of inflation for years.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vlad Zamfir is something of a crypto legend. The researcher was early into Bitcoin, and he was part of the Ethereum Foundation before it launched. He's still an active researcher in the space, but he believes the people operating in it get some basic premises wrong. One of the basic premises that people preach is the idea of database immutability. He argues that, in order for crypto to become more influential, it needs to take governance seriously and find ways to be in compliance with generally accepted ideas about the law.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the big stories in the economy right now is the high number of unfilled job openings in the leisure and hospitality sectors. There are numerous theories for why these businesses have had a hard time hiring. And there are a lot of questions regarding how long this will last or whether this will be a new, more permanent condition. To better understand what's going on, we spoke with Kurt Alexander, the CFO of Omni Hotels & Resorts, about what they're seeing and what they're doing to bring in employees.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mainstream economics has come under attack lately. People have begun questioning its understanding of things like inflation, monetary policy, deficits, and how best to get out of a downturn. Steve Keen, an independent renegade economist, has been preaching this for a long time. And he believes the whole profession needs to be chucked. On this episode, we talk about some of the big failures he sees in economist thinking, and he is particularly energized by the subject of climate change. He also deplores the economic consensus, and says the way to think about it needs a total rethink, resulting in much more dramatic action than what is currently being proposed by the mainstream.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bookstores typically aren't seen as the most attractive businesses in the year 2021. Add in the pandemic, and that makes it even tougher. And if you're in Texas, dealing with multiple blackouts, then it gets even harder than that. Our guest on this episode did all of that. We speak with the author Ryan Holiday, the author of several books including The Daily Stoic and Ego Is the Enemy, as well as Conspiracy, a book about the takedown of Gawker. He talks about his new bookshop in Bastrop Texas, and all of the various difficulties he's faced over the last year in running the operation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a lot of hype about so-called DeFi (decentralized finance) these days, and much of it is based on enthusiasm over what can be built on Ethereum. Ethereum is seen as easier to build on for multiple reasons. But the Bitcoin world is increasingly interested in some of the same mechanics and similar types of projects. On this Odd Lots, we speak with Alyse Killeen, the founder Managing Partner at Stillmark, a Bitcoin-focused VC fund, on what's being built there, and how its vision of DeFi is similar and different to what's being built on Ethereum.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

By now you've no doubt heard about DeFi: the hot vision of crypto that aims to disrupt traditional lending and fundraising. But the space remains really difficult to grasp. There's all kinds of jargon — Automated Market Makers, Impermanent Loss, etc. — and the markets don't quite operate like traditional markets do. So how does it all really work? Where's it going? And what will it all be used for beyond speculation? On this episode, we speak with Tom Schmidt of Dragonfly Capital to break it all down.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The world's central bankers are facing challenges the likes of which they've never seen before. We're in a unique moment for the macroeconomy, coming out of the pandemic crisis at a rapid clip. What's more, the nature of money is changing. Cryptocurrencies are on the rise. More commerce is becoming digital. The pandemic showed weaknesses in the existing payments system. On this week's episode, we speak with Hyun Song Shin, the Economic Adviser and Head of Research at the Bank for International Settlements on the future of central bank digital currencies, and other challenges they face right now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You can't talk about the problems in logistics and supply chains right now without talking about trucking. Once goods are unloaded from ships, trucks are the dominant mode of domestic freight. However, unlike shipping, the trucking industry was something of a mess even before the pandemic: prone to extreme labor problems and rapid boom/bust cycles. On this episode, we speak with Craig Fuller, the CEO of the information and data firm FreightWaves, to discuss the current and long-term state of the industry.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone knows that tech stocks performed amazingly well amid the coronavirus crisis. In the last few months, there's been a little bit of a cooling off. But for the most part, betting on tech has been a fantastic bet for a really long time. This week's guest says there's a lot more to come. On this episode we speak with Ram Parameswaran, the Founder and CIO at Octahedron Capital — which does VC investments and invests in public equity — on what he learned over the last year, and the big things he's betting on now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

By this point, you're aware that shipping anything internationally is pretty tough right now. It turns out, it's getting worse. Earlier in the year, Tracy tried shipping a teddy bear from Hong Kong to the U.S. on a vessel, but, for a variety of reasons, it ended up not working out. At least she tried. Right now, she wouldn't even be able to try because international shipping has gotten that much more messed up. So what's behind this logistical nightmare? On this episode, we speak with Mercury Group CEO Anton Posner and President Margo Brock for a granular deep dive into the state of shipping and why it's so hard for Tracy (and even shippers with higher dollar value goods for sale) to get space on a vessel right now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the last year, numerous celebrities and athletes have gotten into crypto in some way. For example, some have announced plans to put part of their salary into Bitcoin. But Brooklyn Nets star Spencer Dinwiddie has been in the space for a lot longer, having held Bitcoin for several years. And, in addition to owning Bitcoin and other coins, he's also the co-founder of a new company called Calaxy, which aims to let fans buy tokens associated with their favorite stars. On this episode, we speak with Spencer as well as his co-founder Solo Ceesay about the world of creator tokens, and how various technologies, including crypto, are changing the relationship between fans and celebs.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Home demand is booming. By some measures, the market is even hotter than it was during the peak prior to the financial crisis. But there's one big problem: There just aren't many homes available to buy. Whether it's existing inventory or new home sales, there simply isn't enough to meet the demand, even with prices surging. On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with housing economist Ali Wolf, the chief economist at the data and research firm Zonda, about how the boom happened; how America became so under-housed; and how constraints of land, labor and materials are making it brutal to build more of them.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dan Ariely is one of the most famous behavioral economists in the world. And in his latest act, he's attempted to apply his research to investing. His five-year-old firm Irrational Capital searches out companies that foster human capital: that companies which do a better job of nurturing their employees see stock market outperformance. In this episode, we talk about why human capital matters, how to measure it, and what kind of investment returns he's seen by betting on it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The crypto market recently experienced one of its worst crashes ever, with numerous coins cut in half in a manner of days, seemingly without an obvious catalyst. So what really happened during the selloff? Who was behind it? And what role did crypto market structure play in the intensity of the decline? We speak with Roshun Patel, the VP of lending at the crypto prime brokerage Genesis, who explains all of this, plus much more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

These days, there's a shortage of chips everywhere you look. Some of it is related to idiosyncratic events specifically related to logistics. Some of it is related to production challenges relating to long, pre-existing trends. And other aspects are simply related to the fierce battle for chips among a range of players. On this episode, we speak with Brian Venturo, the CTO of CoreWeave, a cloud services provider about serving his clients, the role of crypto mining in tightening the chip market, and other players, like gamers, who are looking for more computing power.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the last few years, ESG has become a gigantic industry. Due to concerns over climate, the treatment of workers, and other public matters, there's been a huge influx of money into investments that take into account environmental, social, and governance considerations. But is there a dark side? On the latest episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Daniela Gabor, a professor of Economics and Macro-Finance at UWE Bristol on her criticism of the space, and the whole process of turning public issues into huge money-making opportunities for investors.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

"Decentralized Finance," "Yield farming"... you've probably heard these terms before, but have very little idea about how they all work. On a recent episode, we spoke with one of the creators of the largest decentralized crypto exchange, UniSwap. But what's it like to trade this stuff? On this episode, we speak with Aaron Lammer — the host of the new podcast Exit Scam — who's recently been DeFi-pilled and now yield farms and trades on Uniswap and other blockchain-based exchanges. He explains to us how he got into it, how it all works, and how he spots money-making opportunities.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

By now, everybody knows that global supply chains are a mess. Not a day goes by where there isn't news of some shortage or bottleneck. Chips, shipping containers, lumber, you name it. So how did it happen and how does it get unwound? On the latest episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Ryan Petersen, the CEO of Flexport, which makes software to help companies manage their supply chains. He breaks down the situation in a granular way to explain what's really going on.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jared Bernstein has been a longtime advisor to President Joe Biden. He was his advisor while Biden was Vice President, and today he serves on the Council of Economic Advisors. On the latest Odd Lots, he joins us to talk about the current state of the economy, inflation, and, more importantly, the White House's vision for taxing and spending. In particular, he explains President Biden's philosophy on taxes, and why he thinks that further spending plans should be matched with tax hikes rather than running up the deficit.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What will the economy really look like when things normalize? Lots of people are, of course, anticipating a sustained rise in inflation, even beyond this burst in prices right now. Our guest this week is skeptical. We speak about the new landscape with Viktor Shvets, a Managing Director at Macquarie, on why he doesn't see the disinflationary trends changing anytime soon. He also argues that the next crisis could originate in the mania for cryptocurrencies.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's an irony with crypto. While so much of it is ostensibly about circumventing legacy finance, many of the most important pieces of crypto infrastructure are centralized financial entities. For example, the newly public Coinbase holds fiat currency and is subject to numerous regulations. Enter decentralized exchanges. A new breed of trading venues has been built to enable trading directly upon a blockchain, allowing assets to be exchanged without any custodial requirements, permission, or even accounts. It's a totally different model of trading and market structure. On this episode, we speak with Hayden Adams, the creator of the Uniswap Protocol, which powers the world's largest decentralized exchange, to explain how it all works.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This year, everyone's become aware of the hollowing out of U.S. semiconductor manufacturing capacity. Whether it's the rise of TSMC, the stumbles at Intel, or the inability of car companies to acquire much-needed chips, semiconductors are becoming a major political issue. But how can you actually turn things around? What would the right policy mix look like? On this episode, we speak with Alex Williams, a research analyst at Employ America, and Hassan Khan, a tech procurement expert with a PhD in semiconductor policy, to discuss how the new administration can make American chip manufacturing roar back to life.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's probably nobody better at synthesizing massive events like Columbia professor Adam Tooze. His book Crashed, which came out in 2018, was probably the definitive take on the Great Financial Crisis. Later this year he has another book coming out on the Coronavirus crisis, and the political and economic lessons therein. On this Odd Lots, we speak with him about the extraordinary year, what it's meant for the U.S., China, Europe, etc., and the change in the economic landscape.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's not often that lumber becomes a national obsession. But this year it has. Thanks to a combination of factors, including diminished sawmill capacity, a renovation boom, and then a homebuilding boom, the price of finished wood has soared to never-before-seen heights. On this episode, we speak with Stinson Dean, a lumber trader at Deacon Trading, to explain why the market has gone so wild, and how the market is structured.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a huge question mark at the moment about whether markets are at some sort of important turning point. For instance, we've seen big amounts of fiscal stimulus in the U.S., sparking concerns that inflation might finally return and overturn a decades-long bull run in bonds. So how can investors protect against that scenario and other major inflection points in markets? On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak to Chris Cole, the founder of Artemis Capital Management. He walks us through his recent research, in which he recreates 100 years of the most popular financial engineering and portfolio structures to identify what works best.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's a weird moment for the markets. The big stock indices are near all time highs. And yet there have been some high profile meltdowns and blowups. There was the collapse of the vendor financing firm Greensill. And there was the wipeout of the Bill Hwang fortune. Meanwhile, numerous SPACs and other speculative stocks have been getting clobbered. So we talked to short seller John Hempton, the CIO and co-founder of Bronte Capital, for an explanation of what's really going on.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Whenever the government is engaging in fiscal or monetary expansion, people like to invoke the history of Weimar Germany and how soon we might all go around transporting dollars in wheelbarrows. But what really happened with Weimar and how did it come about? On this episode, we speak with Zach Carter, the author of the best-selling book “The Price of Peace: Money, Democracy, and the Life of John Maynard Keynes.” He explains how the story of collapse of the German currency was less about money printing and more about domestic political collapse and the destruction of the country's productive base.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When GameStop shares skyrocketed earlier this year, numerous pundits were quick to ascribe political significance to the whole thing. Was it a rebellion? Was it class warfare in the spirit of Occupy Wall Street? On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with the Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Žižek, who argues that the episode was significant and radical, but not in the way most people appreciate. We also talked about algorithmic trading, WallStreetBets, the pandemic, and what's next for the future of capitalism.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The U.S. Treasury market is the biggest, most liquid market in the world. Its smooth functioning is also crucial to the economy and the financial system. Yet it keeps experiencing bizarre, seemingly inexplicable bouts of volatility. We saw it in February. We saw it big time last March. And we saw it multiple times in recent years before then. On this episode, we speak with Yesha Yadav, a professor at Vanderbilt Law School, who argues that these episodes can be explained by the inadequate patchwork of regulations governing this market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the modern age, we expect to be able to turn on our computers, enter in a ticker, and know the actual price of a financial instrument, such as a stock or a bond. But this is easier said than done, especially with bonds, and especially with bonds that are infrequently traded. Sometimes, in fact, bond pricing is a matter of opinion. At least that's the contention of Maciej Kowara and Eric Jacobson, analysts at Morningstar, who published a report earlier this year titled “Bond Pricing: Agreeing To Disagree.” They explain why there can still be disagreements about what a bond is actually worth from one firm to another.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The crypto market has come a long way in recent years. But it's still far less efficient than your typical established market. To understand more about crypto market structure, we spoke with Sam Bankman-Fried. Sam is a former international ETF trader at the prop shop Jane Street Capital. Now he's building a crypto empire with his hedge fund Alameda Research as well as his own exchange called FTX. He talks us through his path into the industry and how it works more broadly.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Ever Given has been freed from the Suez Canal. But the whole situation was indicative of a broader issue in global supply chains: increasingly large ships are contributing to logistical bottlenecks. This was true long before the latest issue on the Suez. On the latest episode of Odd Lots, we speak with economist and historian Marc Levinson, the author of the book The Box, to discuss the rise of extremely large ships and the stress they place on ports, canals, and other parts of the global trading infrastructure.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When the GameStop and Robinhood story exploded at the end of January, suddenly everyone took an interest in market structure and things like payment for order flow, as well as the role that high-frequency trading shops play in enabling free retail trading. This, of course, gave rise to lots of conspiracy theories about ways retail traders are taken advantage of. On the new Odd Lots, we speak with Doug Cifu, the CEO of Virtu, which is one of the largest HFT shops in the country, to get his perspective on how this part of the market really works.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What is the connection between the big trend in interest rates over the last several years and the cost of climate change mitigation? This is a question that's been analyzed by Josh Younger, a rates derivative strategist at JPMorgan. On the latest episode of Odd Lots, he discusses his work on interest rates and the cost of fighting climate change. We also discuss the significance of the Fed's SLR decision, and what it means for rates and bank balance sheets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the last several weeks, we've seen major developments in the macro situation. The vaccine rollout has accelerated. We've gotten a stimulus. The economic outlook has improved. And rates have risen across the curve significantly. So what does the macro picture look like right now, and what is the best framework for thinking through things? On this episode, we speak with Luke Kawa, an Asset Allocation Strategist at UBS Asset Management, about how to understand the current macro picture.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In a sense, Modern Monetary Theory has won. This is not because policy measures are necessarily in line with what MMT adherents would prescribe. Rather, the debate over economic policy, in particular fiscal policy, is happening on MMT terms. MMTers argue that the constraint on government spending is inflation and real resources -- not credit risk -- and that's exactly how even the critics of the stimulus bill have attacked it, that it will be inflationary. So how has the debate around fiscal policy changed so much over the last several years? Much of the credit goes to Stephanie Kelton, the MMT economist and author of the best-selling book The Deficit Myth. On this episode, we talk about their success.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For decades, the dominant economic philosophy of the United States has been that fiscal policy should be relatively inert, and that the Fed should be the primary driver of macroeconomic stabilization. But that may be changing. As evidenced by the stimulus deal, the political willingness to use fiscal stimulus in a responsive way appears to be growing. Moreover, the importance and power of fiscal firepower has been accepted by a range of actors, from Senator Bernie Sanders to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. So are we at the start of a trend break in the neoliberal consensus (whatever that means)? We debated this question with Skanda Amarnath, the head of research at Employ America and Mike Konczal, Director at the Roosevelt Institute and the author of the new book "Freedom from the Market America’s Fight to Liberate Itself from the Grip of the Invisible Hand."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A few decades ago, nobody really questioned vaccines. They were viewed as a standard part of staying healthy and safe. Today, the number of people questioning vaccines risks prolonging a pandemic that has already killed hundreds of thousands of Americans. How we got to this moment didn’t start with the rollout of vaccines or in March 2020, or even with the election of Donald Trump. Our confidence in vaccines, often isn't even about vaccines. It’s about trust. And that trust has been eroding for a long time. Doubt, a new series from Bloomberg’s Prognosis podcast, looks at the forces that have been breaking down that trust. We'll trace the rise of vaccine skepticism in America to show how we got here — and where we’re going. Doubt launches on March 23. Subscribe to Prognosis today on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

By some measures, the Chinese economy did better in 2020 than just about anywhere else. For one thing, it actually grew last year. Also because of the country's success at virus containment, it returned to normalcy faster than elsewhere. But the Chinese economy maintains persistent imbalances, and if anything, the pandemic may have accelerated them. On this episode, we spoke with Michael Pettis, a Finance Professor at Peking University and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center, on where things stand now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bob Dylan did it last year. Shakira did it in January. More and more famous musicians are selling off the rights to their back catalogs to investors. But why now? Why is there so much demand for this asset? On the latest Odd Lots, we speak with Alaister Moughan, an independent music valuation expert, about why this booming market is happening now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

More than 150 years after the end of slavery in the U.S., the net worth of a typical white family is nearly six times greater than that of the average Black family. Season 3 of The Pay Check digs into into how we got to where we are today and what can be done to narrow the yawning racial wealth gap in the U.S.Jackie Simmons and Rebecca Greenfield co-host the season, which kicks off with a personal story about land Jackie's family acquired some time after slavery that they're on the verge of losing. From there the series explores all the ways the wealth gaps manifests and the radical solutions, like affirmative action, quotas, and reparations, that can potentially lead to greater equality.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Treasury market just experienced what some might call a tantrum. Across the yield curve, we saw rates shoot up. And it's not even clear why it happened. There was no comment from a Fed official like there was with the 2013 taper tantrum. No single datapoint that stood out. On this episode, we speak with Credit Suisse's famed strategist Zoltan Pozsar about what happened to cause this selloff, what it says about Treasury market structure, what reforms may be coming down the pike, and whether the Fed needs to act further to restore order to the market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

SPACs, sometimes referred to as blank check companies, are incredibly hot. After being a sort of sleepy and sometimes sketchy backwater of the finance world, the last several months have seen them go on an absolute tear, with several of them fronted by celebrities like Alex Rodriguez or Colin Kaepernick. On this episode, we speak with longtime investor and VC Howard Lindzon about his journey towards launching one of his own: how it came about and why he is excited about the model.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.