Odd Lots

There are lots of hot areas in the market, which everybody knows. Stocks are obviously hot, as are industrial commodities like copper. Agricultural commodities are surging as well. If you look at a chart of corn or soy or even oats, they've been on a tear. One big factor: Chinese demand, in part driven by a desire to stock up on supplies. Meanwhile, China is launching agricultural futures of its own, including a new contract on hogs. On this episode, we speak about what's going on right now in agricultural commodities with Scott Irwin, an economist at the University of Illinois, who helps us break it all down.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The world is facing a chip shortage. Numerous companies, including the auto sector, are facing an inability to get semiconductors, hampering their ability to manufacture their goods and generate sales. Part of this is an acute crisis, related to the virus. But there's also a long-term structural issue, with so few companies able to manufacture at scale. On this episode, we speak with Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein Research, who helped kick off our semiconductor series last fall, with a discussion about the current problem, and how it will get fixed.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As you might have heard, so-called value investing has not had a good run. At least from a quantitative standpoint, strategies that aim to buy low-valued stocks (based on metrics such as price-to-earnings or price-to-book) are quite out of favor, as fast growing names, loaded up on intangible capital, have outperformed. So is there any way to resuscitate the concept of value, or do investors just need to wait for the tides to change? On the latest Odd Lots, we speak with Rafe Resendes, a portfolio manager and co-founder of the Applied Finance Group, who argues for another way of reconceptualizing value, beyond just cheapness, in a way that works across market environments.What do you love about Odd Lots? What topics do you want to see on upcoming episodes? Share your feedback about the show by completing our first-ever listener survey.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

During the worst of the pandemic, people loaded up on staples from their grocery store. Shelf-stable food items, beverages, canned tuna, canned soup, chips... all that kind of stuff. But the big food and consumer staples companies have been huge winners outside of the pandemic. In fact, as an industry, these companies have some of the best track records in the market. On this episode, we speak with Jonathan Fell, the co-founder of Ash Park, an investment firm that specializes in these companies, to talk about how these companies win year after year.What do you love about Odd Lots? What topics do you want to see on upcoming episodes? Share your feedback about the show by completing our first-ever listener survey.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When you think about the big winners in the stock market over the past couple of decades, you might think about Amazon or Apple or some other tech winner. Or maybe, if you've listened to Odd Lots before, you think about Domino's Pizza. But there's another company that's outshone them all. Monster Beverage Corporation, the maker of the popular energy drink has been, well, a monster. In the last 20 years, the stock is up over 100,000%. On this episode, we speak with Mark Astrachan, an analyst at Stifel Financial Corp., about how they produced such a stellar return.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In a world dominated by passive investing on one end and retail YOLO traders on the other, there aren't many star fund managers these days. There's one big exception though. Cathie Wood, the head of the ARK family of funds, has become a celebrity due to the incredible performance of her stock picks. So how do they do it? On this episode, we speak with Brett Winton, ARK's Head of Research, who explains the process they use to find disruptive technologies, and the companies that will win from them.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bitcoin, and crypto more broadly, have been on a huge tear lately. Then, with the chaos surrounding GameStop, there's been more discussion about whether financial markets could be rebuilt in a fairer way, perhaps involving crypto or decentralized finance. Probably one of the best positioned to take advantage of such a shift is Mike Novogratz, the CEO of Galaxy Digital, which might best be described as a crypto investment bank. Prior to his current endeavors, Novogratz was a global macro fund manager at Fortress Investment Group, and prior to that he was at Goldman Sachs, meaning he's seen the traditional finance world, and this new world. He talks to us about why he's so bullish on crypto, and how it can be used to create a fairer and better financial system.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's been a weird several days in the market. What started with a short squeeze in GameStop, driven by Reddit traders, somehow morphed into a huge surge in demand for silver. Whether it started on WallStreetBets is unclear, but something happened that caused demand for the metal to surge. So we talked about this with Jeff Currie, the global head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs. We also discussed why he sees a huge bull market coming in commodities. And why Biden's policies of green stimulus and redistributive economic policy may push the price of oil even higher.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We know that retail activity, much of it on Robinhood, has been surging since last spring once the lockdowns began. But just how big of an impact is it really having? Is it going to be limited to just GameStop and a few others, or is this a permanent fixture of the new market landscape? We discuss this with Benn Eifert, CIO of QVR Advisors. Benn is an expert on volatility and derivatives, and he helps us make sense of what was so unique about GameStop, and what the ripple effects of this will be.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The GameStop short squeeze is one of the most extraordinary events to ever happen in markets. But does it have political significance? Some are saying that it represents the manifestation of Occupy Wall Street, that it is some kind of class warfare against hedge fund elites. Or is it just an interesting trade. We discussed what this moment really means, and what its impact going forward will be, with George Pearkes of Bespoke Investment and Jill Carlson of Slow Ventures.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're seeing historic change happening in real time in the chip industry. The old leaders are going away, and new players and new models are emerging, particularly around fabless chips. On this episode, we speak with Chris Lattner, the President, Engineering and Product, at the open-source chip startup SiFive, about the changes afoot, and how they're trying to change the game.*A previous version of this description misstated Chris Lattner's role at SiFive. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone is talking about GameStop. The physical games retailer that was left for dead has been one of the hottest stocks of the year, surging well over 50x since its lows in late 2020. But how did it come about? Why GameStop? And what was the role that social media played? We speak with Rod Alzmann, the proprietor of GMEDD.com, which collects the fundamental bullish argument for the stock, about how it all happened.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We've been talking a lot on the podcast about semiconductors. The stumble of Intel. The general troubles with US manufacturing, and, of course, the rise of TSMC. But, for a long time, the Chinese government has endeavored to build a successful homegrown and world-leading chip industry. On this episode, we speak with Dan Wang, a tech analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics. He discusses the state of the domestic industry, as well as broader lessons on Chinese tech and business after a year of extraordinary disruption.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In every conversation about computer chips, it always comes back to the dominant player: TSMC. Founded in the 1980s, it's far and away the biggest and most advanced manufacturer. And, as our guest points out, it's virtually impossible to find any piece of consumer tech hardware that Taiwan Semi hasn't touched in some way. On this episode, we speak with Tim Culpan, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist who has been reporting from Taipei for over 20 years, about how the company came to be, why it's so dominant, its geopolitical importance, and what could plausibly dislodge it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It goes without saying that 2020 was a year like no other when it comes to the markets. A historic crash, and then a raging recovery, all set against the backdrop of a pandemic and deeply depressed economy. One implication of this is that trading strategies based on historic rules and patterns didn't perform particularly well in this environment. On this episode, we speak with Corey Hoffstein, a fund manager at Newfound Research, which employs trend following and momentum signals in its trading. He talks about what worked and didn't last year and what that says about overall market structure.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The coronavirus crisis snarled global shipping in early 2020 as borders were closed, but lots of people expected it to improve as vessels returned to position. Instead, more than a year later, the shipping crisis has only gotten worse and standard container rates on some transpacific routes have more than quadrupled, leading to yet another headwind for economies in the midst of fragile recoveries and global trade. On this episode, we speak to economist, historian, and author Marc Levinson. He talks about where all this transport disruption is coming from, what it means for global trade, and whether it will lead to a big rethink of the shipping industry.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The U.S. was once a manufacturing leader in semiconductors. That's no longer the case, given the rise of contract manufacturing and outsourcing, the dominance of Taiwan Semiconductor, and Intel's own design stumbles. But how did it come to this? And can it be reversed by government policy? On this episode we speak with Willy Shih, a longtime tech industry veteran and a professor at the Harvard Business School, to answer these questions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the surprising developments in the last year was the boom in SPACs. The so-called blank check companies raised more money in 2020 than they had in the several years prior combined. But why? Why did a year that saw a pandemic and economic devastation turn into such a boon for what has historically been a speculative financing vehicle? On this Odd Lots, we speak with Larry Wieseneck, a longtime capital markets veteran and Co-President of the investment bank Cowen, who breaks down why the stars all align for the surge in SPACs.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're in a rare moment where chess is popular in the United States. There are two big factors driving it. One is the smash hit Netflix show "The Queen's Gambit." The other is the rise of Twitch streaming, as gamers play online for thousands of fans. On this episode, we speak with Hikaru Nakamura, a popular chess streamer, about the economics of this new environment for chess.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's been pointed out that, after the Black Death in Europe, real wages surged because there was such a shortage of labor in the aftermath. But what was the structure of the economy that allowed this transfer of power to workers in the first place? On this episode, we speak with Patrick Wyman, historian and the host of the Tides of History podcast, to get the real story of Europe's post-pandemic economy during the 1300s.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economics is all about improving living standards, but rarely does the dismal science deal with social justice or talk about how a lack of it could actually hinder growth. In this episode, UBS Global Chief Economist Paul Donovan discusses how prejudice and labor markets are intertwined, and why discrimination can restrict development. Donovan describes how historical technological advances have often increased racism, sexism and other forms of prejudice as people sought out scapegoats to blame for lost jobs and wealth. He also describes how the current 'fourth industrial revolution' is fomenting more blame, and what economists can do about it.Odd Lots listeners are eligible for a 25% discount on the hardback or eBook edition of Paul Donovan’s new book, Profit and Prejudice: The Luddites of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, via the Routledge website by using the offer code “OL25” at checkout. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

2020 has been an absolutely extraordinary year for the economy. In March, we saw the fastest economic contraction in history with an extraordinary surge in unemployment. Now, as the year closes out, we've had a housing boom, an extraordinary rise in financial assets, and unemployment has fallen much faster than most people expected. We spoke about this with Jan Hatzius, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs. We talked about the lessons learned, inflation, the outlook for 2021, his sectoral balances framework for analyzing the economy, and MMT.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This past summer, the business intelligence software company MicroStrategy made waves when it put some of its extra cash into Bitcoin. Then, as Bitcoin ran up, it bought more, and the stock has now soared thanks to the bet. But what's the reasoning behind the move? We speak with MicroStrategy’s CEO, Michael Saylor, on why he thinks Bitcoin is the best reserve asset for any company.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We talk a lot about quantitative trading on the podcast, but typically from a rather big picture perspective, and not at the level of actually building the systems needed for trading and data analysis. On this episode, we speak with Camille Fournier, the head of Platform Engineering at Two Sigma, the financial services firm that, among other things, runs a large hedge fund. Fournier, previously the CTO at Rent the Runway, discusses how her job works, the challenge of managing software engineers, and how tech within a financial services company is different than tech within a consumer-facing startup.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On a recent episode of Odd Lots, we talked about Intel, and how the former dominant American semiconductor company was stumbling. But big things are happening in the chip industry beyond the manufacturing woes of one company. As it turns out, we're seeing a dramatic rethink of chip architecture, and what they can do, with more emphasis on specialized semiconductors that are really good at performing a specific task. One company that's blazing new ground is Apple, whose M1 chip is earning rave reviews online. We speak with Doug O'Laughlin, a former buy-sider, who now writes the newsletter Mule's Musings, on the industry and other things in tech.Correction: A previous version of this description misspelled Doug O'Laughlin's name.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's obviously been an extraordinary year for markets and the economy for reasons that don't need stating at this point. But what does 2021 have in store? Can the current trends continue? We talked with two of the smartest macro thinkers we know: Jon Turek, the author of the Cheap Convexity Blog, and Naufal Sanaullah, the Chief Macro Strategist at EIA All Weather Alpha Partners, to discuss the big themes and what to watch for next year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's no secret that some African nations went on a borrowing spree in recent years, tapping both international markets and sovereign lenders such as China to finance massive infrastructure projects. But all that debt is becoming problematic as the coronavirus crisis strains public finances, resulting in a slow-motion debt crisis. In November, Zambia became the first African country to default on its debt this year, sparking a series of fraught negotiations with its creditors. Zambia famously owes a lot of money to China and the default is now casting more scrutiny on China's approach to its borrowers. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Gyude Moore, Liberia's former Minister of Public Works and Deputy Chief of Staff, turned Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Development. He talks to us about how and why parts of Africa became so indebted to China, and whether China might be on the cusp of cutting borrowers some slack. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For years, the IMF was generally of the view that free trade was good, and that open capital flows were also good. But in recent years, the latter view has started to change. Increasingly the IMF, while continuing to promote openness, has viewed restricting the capital account for emerging markets as a useful tactical macro tool. On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Prakash Loungani and Sriram Balasubramanian of the IMF's Independent Evaluation Office on their examination of the IMF's work, and how its perspective has changed over the last several years. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With developed economies still operating well below pre-crisis levels, central banks face substantial pressure to pursue stimulative policies on an ongoing basis. But what more can they do with the tools at hand? And how much do political fights get in the way? On the latest Odd Lots, we speak with Peter Praet, the former Chief Economist at the ECB, who served under Mario Draghi for almost a decade, about the lessons learned during that experience, and how they apply going forward.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For years, Intel has been the pre-eminent U.S. semiconductor company. But lately, the company has stumbled. This past summer, shares in the company plunged after it said it was experiencing delays in the production of its next generation chips. And while most tech companies have been on an absolute tear, Intel is still close to its lowest levels since the March bottom. So what went wrong and what do they need to do to right the ship? On this episode, we speak with Stacy Rasgon, a semiconductor analyst at Bernstein Research on Intel and the general state of U.S. high-tech manufacturing.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are many similarities between cryptocurrencies and social networks. And the rise of payment apps like Venmo make the link between payments and social media explicit. But this convergence between money and social media goes back a long time. On this episode, we speak with Lana Swartz, a media studies professor at the University of Virginia, about her book, New Money: How Payment Became Social Media.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Traditional quant strategies that try to screen for stocks that are "cheap" have had an extremely rough period. So is this just a temporary setback that will eventually mean revert, or are the existing strategies dead and busted? Earlier this year, Inigo Fraser-Jenkins of Bernstein Research provocatively said he was sticking a fork in the quant world. But not everyone agrees with him that it's a lost cause. So in addition to talking with Fraser-Jenkins, we also brought on Aaron Brown, formerly of AQR Capital Management, for a debate on what works in quant and what the future holdsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bitcoin has been on a tear lately, but it's been a bit unclear as to what's driving it. But whatever's driving it, co-host Tracy Alloway has given up her longtime skepticism on the digital currency and now believes in its value. This episode is why. We spoke with Meltem Demirors, the Chief Strategy Officer at CoinShares, a firm that offers vehicles for investing in digital assets, about this year's move and why people are buying now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The politics of taxes are always fraught. In theory, everyone wants to pay less of them and bristle at the prospect of paying more. But it turns out that our feelings are more complicated and nuanced. On this episode, we speak with Stefanie Stantcheva, a Harvard economist who has done deep survey work on how people really feel about taxes. What she's discovered could be useful going forward in terms of thinking about how to design the optimal policy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors have always had to pay attention to what's going on in Washington DC, but this year it's been on a whole new level. Between virus response policy, fiscal stimulus talks, and, of course, the recent election, there's been a huge demand for understanding of politics. On this episode, we speak with Jake Sherman, a reporter from Politico, who argues that investors are badly confused about how the city really works.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This year's stock market boom has coincided with a boom in new listings. There have been plenty of IPOs, numerous SPACs, and an uptick in companies doing direct listings on the exchange. That third category has gotten relatively less attention, but it potentially represents a powerful offering from the NYSE, which unlike many other financial companies, has performed quite well. On this episode, we speak with John Tuttle, Vice Chairman and Chief Commercial Officer at NYSE about how direct listings work, and why the NYSE sees them becoming a much bigger vehicle for going public in the future.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Measuring a company's book value is a classic practice among investors seeking to understand how much a firm's actual assets are worth. But what happens when a firm's assets are not things like buildings, factories, and land, but intangible assets, such as intellectual property and brand value? How does that change the task of analyzing a company's intrinsic worth? On this episode, we speak with Michael Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global (part of Morgan Stanley) about valuing these assets, and how investors can use this information to get a better read on their investments.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The IPO of Ant Financial will go down as one of the most extraordinary deals of all time. And in general, Chinese internet companies have been huge winners in the post-crisis period. But what does it take to really analyze the quality of their businesses? On this episode, we speak with Stephen Clapham, a forensic accountant, and the founder of Behind The Balance Sheet, who explains why understanding what's really going on with these companies is so tricky.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The COVID-19 crisis has pushed central banks around the world into uncharted territory. Typically when we talk about this, it's from the perspective of the Fed or the ECB. But this has also been an extraordinary period for emerging market central banks. On this episode, we speak with Ruth Krivoy who ran the Venezuelan central bank in the early 1990s. She discusses the lessons she learned during that period and how they apply now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For months now, traders have been positioning for a major volatility spike around the November election. But what are markets really expecting, and how are investors hedging? On this episode, we speak with Josh Younger, a rate derivatives strategist at JPMorgan to discuss how he goes about finding signal in the market's noise, how traders are positioning, and what could be a shock to the market on election day.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Central banks around the world are increasingly launching pilot projects to explore the possibility of issuing digital currencies. But how would they work and what would they accomplish? On this episode, we speak with Benoît Cœuré, the head of the BIS Innovation Hub and a former member of the ECB Executive Board. We discuss CBDCs as well as the future of monetary policy more broadly.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With just two weeks until the election, talks over a stimulus deal remain ongoing, with negotiations having picked up between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Many of the disagreements haven't been about the price tag per se, but around language on such things as a national testing strategy and workplace liability. One of the most outspoken voices on the Democrat side, urging a deal, has been California Congressman Ro Khanna whose district encompasses much of Silicon Valley. He explains why, from his perspective, it's so important to get a deal done now. We also discuss the fiscal policy priorities of a theoretical Biden administration.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's been an extraordinary year for traders of volatility. We had the crisis, we had this incredible surge in retail call options buying, and we have the election coming up. On this episode, we speak with Kris Sidial, a co-founder and vice president at The Ambrus Group, to discuss volatility arbitrage trading in this extraordinary environment.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For over a century, tobacco stocks have been among the greatest investments in history, consistently outperforming other sectors decade after decade. But what is it about tobacco companies specifically that has led to this incredible performance? On this episode, we speak with financial advisor Lawrence Hamtil along with Gene Hoots, a financial advisor and the author of “Going Down Tobacco Road”, to discuss the extraordinary performance of this sector.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, you heard a lot of talk about the US becoming like Greece unless the budget deficit were brought under control. However, these warnings proved to be unfounded. That being said, there are risks of a different variety. On the latest Odd Lots, we speak with the economist Michael Hudson on the risk of too much private sector debt, which could lead to permanently degraded consumption and investment.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Interest in quantitative investing strategies continues to grow; however, as the space gets more competitive, making money and winning gets harder and harder. Computation costs alone can be prohibitive. On the latest episode, we speak with Columbia Business School professor Ciamac Moallemi about how the world's best quant funds thrive.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the guiding lights of Fed policy over the years has been the so-called Neutral Rate of Interest or R*. It's at this rate, theoretically, where the economy comes into balance, with full employment and stable prices. Yet, not only has discovering that level become challenging, but the premise itself has been called into question. On this episode, we speak with Peter Williams, an analyst and economist at the IMF, on what it takes to find the right level, and how the concept itself can be salvaged.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In a carry trade, an investor borrows money cheaply to buy an asset that yields more. As long as nothing changes overall, the investors get to pocket the spread. In our latest episode, our guests argue that more and more aspects of the economy resemble this trade, and that the culprit is the policymaker suppression of volatility. We speak with Tim Lee, Jamie Lee, and Kevin Coldiron, the authors of the new book “The Rise Of Carry: The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis”.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

These days it seems like all financial markets are the same big trade. A gold chart looks like a Tesla chart, which looks like an Ethereum chart, which looks like a chart of a basket of cloud computing stocks. So why is this? And what could cause that to change? On this episode, we speak with Jared Woodard, the head of the Research Investment Committee at Bank of America, who recently published a report on exactly this. As Woodard explains it, the question starts with low growth and inequality, and the premium that investors will pay for certain types of securities in such an environment. He walked us through how that might change, and what investors can do in the meantime to discover under-appreciated values in the market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Back in 2017, during the Bitcoin boom, there were a number of different attempts to use blockchain technology to improve a host of businesses and industries. Many of those were cynical attempts to cash in on the bubble, but some did have loftier ambitions. On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Maria Bustillos, who was the co-founder of a project called Civil, which aimed to fund a series of newsrooms, backed by their own Ethereum-based token. Maria talked about what the vision was, why it didn't work, and the lessons learned for journalism business models and new endeavors.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.