NAB Morning Call

Thursday 2nd April 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Phil is joined by Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, to analyse the shifting geopolitical landscape as President Trump signals a potential wind-down of military action against Iran. Note, this was recorded ahead of Donald Trump’s address today. Haines provides a dual-lens perspective on the administration's strategy, balancing domestic political pressure to end the conflict with the urgent need to reassure Gulf allies that the job will be finished, whilst securing the Strait of Hormuz. But beyond Iran, how are Trump’s policies reflecting on global partnerships and international business. Haines discusses the "Manhattan Project 2.0" branding of AI as a national security priority and examines how a potential Democratic shift in the midterms might impact market sentiment and U.S. regulatory stability. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB's Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss the wave of optimism sweeping through global markets as speculation grows regarding a potential ceasefire in the Iran conflict. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw significant gains and oil prices dipped near $100 a barrel, the rally trimmed slightly as investors awaited a high-stakes address from President Trump. The conversation also breaks down resilient U.S. economic data, including a stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing index—though Taylor notes that rising supply delivery times may reflect Middle East disruptions rather than pure demand. Additionally, the pair explore the Bank of Japan’s growing inflation expectations following the Tankan survey and a rebound in the (admittedly very choppy) Australian building approvals, painting a picture of a global economy showing surprising resilience amidst geopolitical volatility. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 1st April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn today’s NAB Morning Call, Rodrigo Catril joins the podcast to break down a wave of market optimism following reports that President Trump is prepared to wind down U.S. military action against Iran. While the Nasdaq surged 3.3% on the news, Rodrigo notes that the situation remains volatile as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and retaliatory threats persist from both the Houthis and Iran.Beyond the geopolitical shift, the discussion explores a rebound in China’s manufacturing PMI to 50.4 and a jump in Eurozone inflation to 2.5%, which has sparked a debate between ECB officials on whether these energy-driven shocks are short-lived. Rodrigo also points to a gradual softening in the U.S. labour market, evidenced by a decline in JOLTS job openings, as investors turn their focus toward upcoming non-farm payroll data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 31st March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs the Middle East conflict continues with no clear resolution in sight, global markets are increasingly recalibrating from a focus on short-term inflation spikes to the broader risks of a sustained economic slowdown. Phil discusses how this shifting narrative is pulling bond yields lower across the US, Europe, and the UK, with NAB’s Ken Crompton. They analyse the divergence between the "hawkish" inflation concerns of some central bankers and the growing fear among investors that prolonged high energy costs—like the anticipated $3 per liter fuel in Australia—will eventually crush consumer demand and business investment.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 30th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs the Middle East conflict enters its fifth week, geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, driving Brent crude back toward $112 a barrel. Phil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters to explore the shifting market narrative as investors weigh the immediate threat of surging inflation against the growing risk of demand destruction. The pair discuss the latest University of Michigan survey, which showed a sharp drop in consumer sentiment alongside rising inflation expectations, and examine why bond yields are fluctuating as markets struggle to price in a potentially protracted war. They also preview a critical week of data, including US payrolls and eurozone CPI, while noting the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers at the ECB and Bank of England as they move to anchor long-term inflation expectations in a highly volatile environment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th March 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this weekend’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil talks with Matthew Berg, co-founder of Local Residential, and Bill Halmarick, NAB’s Head of Real Estate, to explore the burgeoning "build-to-rent" sector and its potential to alleviate Australia’s housing affordability crisis. They discuss how this institutional model—common in the UK and US—offers tenants greater security through long-term leases and professional management, contrasting it with the traditional "mom and dad" investor market. The conversation also highlights NAB's ambitious commitment to provide $6 billion in financing for social and affordable housing by 2030, including innovative construction methods like modular housing and partnerships for "impact housing" that integrates diverse income groups within a single community. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGeopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate market sentiment as a five-day extension to President Trump’s ultimatum fails to produce a diplomatic breakthrough, with Tehran officially rejecting US peace proposals. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to analyse the resulting market volatility, including a rise in Brent crude up to $108, The pair discusses the "fear gauge" (VIX) currently sitting below 30 and what this indicates about market expectations for a potentially prolonged conflict and discuss why central banks like the Norges Bank are already pivoting toward a more hawkish stance as global inflation forecasts are revised upward. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 26th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe path to de-escalation in the Middle East remains stalled as Tehran rejects the latest US peace proposal, issuing counter-demands that include sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and war reparations. Phil talks with NAB’s Taylor Nugent on the market’s reaction to this diplomatic deadlock, noting that while oil prices saw a temporary dip, the prospect of a protracted war continues to drive bond yields higher. There were hawkish tone from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who warned that the central bank "will not be paralyzed by hesitation" in responding to inflationary shocks. Domestically, the focus is on the latest Australian CPI data for February, which showed headline inflation easing slightly to 3.7% and trimmed mean inflation holding steady at 3.3%. These numbers will likely be eclipsed by the massive surge in fuel prices expected to hit the March print. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 25th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGeopolitical tensions in the Middle East enter a dangerous new phase as the US deploys 3,000 troops and Iran launches fresh attacks across the region, sending Brent crude climbing toward $104 a barrel. Phil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters to explore how central banks are moving away from "looking through" temporary shocks toward bracing for the secondary, inflationary impacts of a protracted war. They analyze the sharp rise in bond yields and the sobering reality reflected in the latest global PMI data, which shows surging input prices and weakening consumer confidence in Europe and the US. The discussion also covers Australia’s upcoming CPI data and the finalization of the Australia-EU trade deal, somewhat overshadowed by the escalating conflict. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 23rd March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil asks NAB’s Sally Auld if we’re seeing a TACO trade as President Trump pushes back his 48-hour ultimatum by five days, citing productive talks with Iran that the Iranians claim aren't even happening. This glimmer of a potential off-ramp has seen oil prices tumble nearly 10% and US equities rally. Bond yields have also fallen but remain somewhat elevated on the assumption central banks will continue to adopt a more hawkish tone in response to persistent inflation risks. Also, anecdotal evidence of the impact of surging input costs on business confidence, and what to expect from today’s critical global PMI data and Japanese CPI figures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 23rd March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGeopolitical tensions have reached a boiling point as a high-stakes deadline looms for Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or face the "obliteration" of its power plants by the US. Phil talks with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril to analyse a volatile Friday session where markets—already reeling from earlier energy infrastructure attacks—saw Brent crude surge past $112 a barrel and bond yields spike globally. Crucially, these major moves occurred ahead of the weekend's direct ultimatum, meaning investors have yet to fully price in the prospect of a significant escalation. Australian CPI is out this week, along with global PMIs. The focus today, though, is on whether President Trump will carry through with his threats. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th March 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this weekend edition Phil is joined by Martin Wolf, the FT’s chief economics commentator, to analyze the deepening economic fallout of the intensifying conflict in the Middle East. As oil prices surge past $110 a barrel following attacks on energy infrastructure and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Wolf weighs the likelihood of a "nightmare" long-term war against a more optimistic scenario where President Trump declares a swift victory. The discussion explores the potential for a 1970s-style stagflationary shock, the precarious strategic position of an energy-dependent Europe, and the paradoxical resilience of the US dollar as a safe haven. Wolf also sheds light on the broader geopolitical ripple effects, from China’s irritation with regional instability to the severe strain on emerging nations facing a "double whammy" of rising tariffs and energy costs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABRetaliatory attacks on Qatari gas facilities have sent energy prices soaring, with Brent crude momentarily almost return to $120 a barrel and European benchmark gas prices jumping as much as 30%. In this environment of heightened inflation risk, Phil talks with NAB’s Ray Attrill to examine the sharp rise in global bond yields, specifically a 40-basis-point spike in UK 2-year gilts following the Bank of England’s surprisingly hawkish stance. Ray also provides a deep dive into the latest Australian labour force survey, where a jump in the unemployment rate to 4.3% was offset by a surge in participation. Highlighting the resilience of the market, Ray notes, "Although the unemployment rate rose... employment growth was strong", keeping the labour market tighter than the RBA’s target for full employment and likely deterring any shift away from its restrictive policy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDespite mounting geopolitical risks and a surge in oil prices, the Federal Reserve is maintaining a remarkably dovish stance, holding rates steady while signaling that a future cut remains a priority. Phil talks with NAB’s Gavin Friend to explore the central bank's curious optimism as it simultaneously upgrades its US GDP and inflation forecasts while still aiming for rate reductions later this year. Even with a hotter-than-expected 0.7% jump in the Producer Price Index suggesting persistent supply chain pressures, Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed is "looking through" the current energy shock to focus on a resilient labor market. As the Fed holds its nerve, attention shifts to the Bank of England and the ECB to see if they will follow this lead or react more sharply to the deepening collapse in economic confidence. The blowback from the attack on Iran’s South Pars refinery will also be watched, as it could mark a significant inflection point in the Middle East war. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday NAB’s Sally Auld unpacks the fallout from the RBA's recent interest rate hike to 4.1%. While the decision was a close 5-4 split, it was a question of timing rather than any division of intent. Governor Michelle Bullock’s warning that a recession might be a "necessary" cost to tame stubborn inflation has sent ripples through the market. Meanwhile there’s the surprising resilience of the global economy, noted in both Chinese and US data prior to the Middle East conflict. Phil and Sally also look ahead to the the Bank of Canada and the Fed both poised to keep rates on hold in a "mega week" for central banks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 17th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil this morning to explore the curious rise in global risk appetite despite ongoing volatility and a lack of significant change in the Middle East conflict. They break down the surprising overnight market shifts, including falling yields and a strengthening Aussie dollar, while questioning the sustainability of this "mild positive sentiment". There’s also a preview of today’s highly anticipated RBA meeting - where a rate hike to 4.1% is widely expected - and analyses strong new economic data from China that suggests a firmer start to the year for the global power. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe war in the Middle East continues to drive sentiment, with oil pushing back above $100 and bond yields rising. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil this morning to discuss how weak US data on Friday, including a sharp fall in GDP. This compounds the issue, leaving central banks balancing inflstion fears with concerns about demand destruction. Slowing economic growth is not confined to the US – the UK also saw weak GDP numbers on Friday, whilst unemployment rose in Canada. None of this is likely to prevent a rate rise from the RBA tomorrow, but other central banks meeting this week, of which there are many, are likelyt to wait and see how things unfold. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.