Multipolarity

1973. Beyond the war, we’re hacking into the coming implications of the major energy crisis that’s brewing - as the last tankers to leave the Gulf trundle into the ports of Europe. From Volkswagen to venture capital, we’ll be charting what life looks like with oil at 150 or 200 dollars a barrel. Energy lockdowns. Rationing. Bond crises. All of these are being whispered in the press right now. As much as our leaders dare. But this is still the Ardennes Forest in spring 1940. Eerily quiet. Soon enough, the flamethrowers will burn through the Old Continent, and then begin to ricochet back onto America itself. Will this break up the order we once took for granted? Are we at the end of the US consumption model of economics? Will resource rich Canada end up speared by its bigger brother? We’ll be taking a grand view from the sidelines, as we start to figure out how to live through the latest version of the polycrisis - after 2008, after Covid, after Ukraine - this is the next major re-shaping of the world we live in. Of course, this is a premium Multipolarity episode - so you’ll have to be on the Patreon list if you want to listen to the full episode. That’s easily done - simply go to Patreon and sign up. It’s 8 dollars, and you can cancel any time you like….

Multipolarity Dialogues is a series of interviews that scan the geopolitical horizon. We talk to some of the sharpest analysts, think as an experts about how they see the world beyond the visible edge of the geopolitical.Now, is Iran actually winning this war, or is the US slowly pounding it to bits with its air power? Will there be a land invasion? Could a land invasion even succeed? How are the oil markets gonna react? What are the likely economic consequences of this war? How will it affect the US midterms? All these are questions that are being discussed to death on the super giant gossip chambers that are the mainstream and social media.But what is less discussed is the big picture geopolitical change that is occurring before our eyes. We at Multipolarity already suggested that this war means that Taiwan is a lost cause to the United States. Is that true though? And what would it mean for the overall US strategic posture? Most importantly, what is going to happen in the Middle East, which itself is a theatre of great importance.Nobody in the public sphere has shown a better understanding of the academic literature on these matters than Anusar Farooqui, better known as Policy Tensor (@policytensor). He is a prolific tweeter and essayist on geopolitics and geoeconomics and grand strategy, and for that reason his X account has just exploded with followers in the last three weeks. We had to welcome him back on to the show...

The dog that didn’t bark. China is cooling its heels on the war in Iran. As America’s entanglement deepens, it’s not Sun Tzu they’re turning to, but the wit and wisdom of Napoleon Bonaparte: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” Meanwhile, even closer to Beijing, US weakness is showing up the true nature of the slow war in the South China Sea. If America can’t open the Strait of Hormuz, how can it maintain the Taiwan Strait? Finally, is Bibi booboo? A new wave of rumours has him six feet under, backed by… videos of him looking basically fine. Welcome to the AI hall of mirrors. Where reality buckles under the weight of the slopoverse. The Propaganda War is now 4D, hologrammatic, and features the Kirkbot 3000.

As Iran smoulders, ships burn in Hormuz, and TACO traders search for signal in the thunderous noise, we’re celebrating the end of the world in the only way we know how - two audio essays. Philip Pilkington on the economic consequences of the war. And Andrew Collingwood on the political mess we’re in.

The Netherlands has its youngest ever Prime Minister. Liberal technocrat Rob Jetten is also openly gay - a big win for diversity. But can the VVD survive in coalition without meaningful agricultural reforms? Meanwhile, in Kazakhstan, wheat futures are up almost nine percent since September. We’ll be asking whether transitory commodities inflation in the Stans is the big story we’ve all been missing. Finally, the little known African country of Bapetikotsweti has signed a memorandum of understanding with Peru. It includes bilateral tariff reductions on soy beans and electric toothbrushes. What does this mean for the flatulence control and dentistry industries in these terriers of the global economy? Only joking… just one story this week… IRANThat's right. We're at war. And The Lads are joined at the podcast frontline by the one and only Malcom Kyeyune. Strap in...

The US State Department advised its citizens in Northern Mexico to ‘shelter in place’, as the cartels took their reprisals, following a major Mexican security forces operation against gang kingpin El Mencho - and then another called El Tuli. It’s all LOL, until you realise that this is just the start. By targeting the cartels, the US has poked a hornet’s nest; And the hornets are on cocaine. Meanwhile - have you paid a US steel tariff in recent months? Was it over 30%? If so, you could be due a refund. Just dial 1-800-WHITE HOUSE to see if you may be eligible. The Supreme Court acknowledged that sorting out the tariffs strike-down would be ‘a complete mess’. But after the mess, the reckoning: deep down, this is a story about the US balance of payments. Finally, Christine Lagarde is stepping down from the ECB. Emmanuel Macron' s Napoleonic pincer movement is that this frees the way for a Lagarde Presidential Run – and stops a National Rally government from appointing its own bank governor in 2028. But with these kinds of cynical machinations now effectively running the European elite, the entire Centrist establishment may be embarking on its Russia Campaign. All of this. Coming up. For premium subscribers. That’s right - it’s premium week. If you’re not a premium subscriber, you can sign up on our new Metternich Tier on Patreon, for eight dollars, pounds or Euros a month. patreon.com/multipolarityFor clarity, we should point out that founder subscribers still on the old Palmerston tier will stay at $5 a month. For anyone else, try it once, you won’t regret it. And you can cancel any time. And if you like visual Multipolarity, you can always check us out on Substack, where we’re expanding our output with a weekly Multipolarity Briefing every Tuesday. multipolaritypod.substack.com

At the Munich Security Conference, Marco Rubio offered Europe a peace in our time. The Americans sprayed on the charm. But looking between the fine words, it seems like Marco was on his way out the door. Do Europe’s friends need to tell her this is a break up speech? Meanwhile, rumours of the destruction of Iran remain premature. We’ve run the numbers, and it turns out it would take ten per cent of all the Tomahawks in the world to flatten three mullahs and an oil derrick. But with American strike fleets still camped in the Persian Gulf, how does this end? Finally, Hungary was all anyone was talking about backstage at Munich. The Brussels establishment have decided that defeating Orban in his upcoming fourth successive election will bring a massive W in a world drowning in Ls. The polls haven’t just tightened - they’ve actually split. With two sides both predicting victory for their candidate, across a spread of 15 points, what happens when one side wakes up in April to find themselves robbed?

Firas Modad is back for his second turn on the pod.After talking about Neo-Ottomanism last time, he is turning his attention to Iran, and its faltering regime.With rumours of an imminent attack continuing to swirl, what future is there for a post-Khamenei world?What part could be played by the exiled Shah? Is there perhaps a different faction that could take the reins if the mullahs fell?Even then: do Iran’s neighbours even want the regime to fall - given that it could unleash an oil rich industrialised state of 80 million into the region’s balance of power?Then, talk turns to Somaliland. Recently recognised by Israel, this northern splinter state of Somalia is relatively stable, and hangs on a hinge of the Gulf of Aden, making it a juicy prize for lovers of international shipping lanes. The Emiratis are for it – but Turkey says no.Who will win in this coming tussle between the Gulf monarchies and the neo-sultan Erdogan?

Today we bring you two audio essays from your favourite geo-political podcasters.First up Philip is looking at the recent attempt to short the precious metals market.Perhaps the push to lower the interest rate is not to juice the economy but rather an attempt ultimately stop the Sell America trade?Meanwhile Andrew’s shouting from the rooftops "it’s right there in the document!".The Donroe Doctrine… Trump wants to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, and the evidence has been there the whole time.Remember you can get special paywalled premium episodes of Multipolarity every month on Patreon: https://patreon.com/multipolarity or by becoming a member on our YouTube Channel (just click Join).

After Greenland, the rupture in the Transatlantic Alliance was made visible at the WEF conference in Davos.Mark Carney said the quiet bit aloud. But the real implications are beginning to be felt in the deep financial plumbing that undergirds the global economy. Now, a Japanese bond market sell-off is unsettling larger forces. If Japanese interest rate then rocket, they may need to liquify their massive US Treasury bond holdings. Beyond the geopolitics, this is going to turn nasty – economic levels of nasty. We’ll be exploring the full low road prospectus in this bumper-length members-only show. This is our monthly paywalled episode. To get it, simply go to Patreon, type in Multipolarity, and sign up - you can cancel any time.

In 1991, the philosopher Jean Baudrillard published a series of essays in Libération and The Guardian entitled The Gulf War Did Not Take Place. Baudrillard's argument was effectively twofold. Firstly, since the American military overwhelmed the Iraqi army so easily and barely sustained casualties, what took place for the West was not really a war per se.Secondly, the new medium of cable news television meant that viewers in the United States were able to watch the war unfold in real time, albeit through a lens of carefully curated propaganda. Viewers were told that they were being given real-time insight into war, but in reality, they were being fed a simulation of war that was, in many ways, more fictional than they would receive from high quality war fiction.Our guest today, Anon writer and Substack Amerikanets has written a new essay in this genre entitled Virtual War Simulated Conflict in the Trump era (https://www.amerikanets.com/)In the essay, Amerikanets described the same experience on the morning after the capture of Venezuelan president; a feeling of unreality. The initial images and news stories available that morning suggested something like a major American military strike on a capital city. But as the smoke cleared and time went on, it became increasingly evident that all was not what seemed.The war simulation machine appears to have now reached its nadir, but it has not resulted in a unified propaganda net where everyone unquestioningly accepts the American narrative of global conflict.Rather, it has created an extremely fragmented reality where no one is really sure what is going on. And as Amerikanet’s essay shows, the more you actually understand what happened, the greater the looming sense of unreality becomes.Remember you can get special paywalled premium episodes of Multipolarity every month on Patreon: https://patreon.com/multipolarity or by becoming a member on our YouTube Channel (just click Join).

Reza Pahlavi is packing his toothbrush again. As protests grow in Iran, the exiled Crown Prince has been popping up for media appearances, from his home in the Maryland suburbs near DC.As we enter yet another cycle of Persian proto-revolution, we’re saying he shouldn’t count those air miles just yet.Meanwhile, Donald Trump says that Greenland’s defences are two dogs and a sled. Handy, because America has three dogs and two sleds.The Danes have been humiliated already – but can anything useful still come from the biggest gorilla in the room turning on his kin? We'll be watching, as Nato slides into the mid-Atlantic.Finally, when Jerome Powell is putting out hostage-style video statements, you may have squeezed the Fed too hard. Or have you? Whatever the details of the present spat, is there still a place for independent central banking in the Western model?Remember you can get special paywalled premium episodes of Multipolarity every month on Patreon: https://patreon.com/multipolarity or by becoming a member on our YouTube Channel (just click Join).

They got the Ace of Spades.The annual dictator kidnapping season got underway in fine style this week as the US bagged a big one, 1.9 meter Nicolás Maduro.But while the President and his exposer were taking a tour of the Gulf of America by Black Hawk, back on Planet Earth the geopolitical plates were shifting as never before.In 2026, it looks like we're about to answer the greatest question of them all.Can you just do things?We might not like the answer.Expanding on that thought, do you know the old joke about the economist, how he refused to pick up the $20 bill lying on the ground?He assumed it was an illusion because if it had been real, in an efficient market, somebody would've already picked it up.The young bucks at the State Department think they've found a way to hot wire the great game.We're asking whether there is such a thing as an efficient market in geopolitics?Remember you can get special paywalled premium episodes of Multipolarity every month on Patreon: https://patreon.com/multipolarity or by becoming a member on our YouTube Channel (just click Join).

And to all a good night.Need a last minute gift? Or want to treat yourself to something you actually want?You can get special paywalled premium episodes of Multipolarity every month on Patreon: https://patreon.com/multipolarity or by becoming a member on our YouTube Channel (just click Join).

Every day until Christmas, Philip and Andrew open a window, revealing an object that speaks to the geopolitical year that was.

Every day until Christmas, Philip and Andrew open a window, revealing an object that speaks to the geopolitical year that was.

Every day until Christmas, Philip and Andrew open a window, revealing an object that speaks to the geopolitical year that was.

Every day until Christmas, Philip and Andrew open a window, revealing an object that speaks to the geopolitical year that was.

Every day until Christmas, Philip and Andrew open a window, revealing an object that speaks to the geopolitical year that was.

Every day until Christmas, Philip and Andrew open a window, revealing an object that speaks to the geopolitical year that was.

Every day until Christmas, Philip and Andrew open a window, revealing an object that speaks to the geopolitical year that was.

Every day until Christmas, Philip and Andrew open a window, revealing an object that speaks to the geopolitical year that was.

Every day until Christmas, Philip and Andrew open a window, revealing an object that speaks to the geopolitical year that was.

Every day until Christmas, Philip and Andrew open a window, revealing an object that speaks to the geopolitical year that was.

Every day until Christmas, Philip and Andrew open a window, revealing an object that speaks to the geopolitical year that was.

Every day until Christmas, Philip and Andrew open a window, revealing an object that speaks to the geopolitical year that was.

Every day until Christmas, Philip and Andrew open a window, revealing an object that speaks to the geopolitical year that was.

The Special Relationship: from Britain defaulting on its loans in the 1930s, to Suez, to Falklands, to the War on Terror, to Trump patronising Starmer at the recent Israel-Gaza peace summit, the precise specialness of this relationship has long been in dispute - whether the political classes acknowledge it or not. There was of course Lend-Lease and the small matter of two World Wars, but Britain’s post-war status, as junior partner in the American Empire has meant it has profited, but as the world pivots, it is now exposed. Philip Pilkington has been watching the recent wire-tap scandal with Steve Witkoff and Russian official Yuri Ushakov with interest. There is only one country with the capabilities to pull off that kind of intelligence breach, he suggests. And as a result of this and much else, that country may soon find itself off the special list. So what then? What is Britain’s destiny if it can’t eat at America’s table? And how will America re-make itself in a world where it treats its historic allies so lightly? And what will that mean in turn for the wider Western alliance? This week, our duo go in search of the long story of the Special Relationship - but only for Patrons. Pay us $5 $5 or €5 a month by searching Patreon.com for Multipolarity, and you too can understand why the good ship Anglo is going down down down to Davey Jones’ Locker. https://www.patreon.com/multipolarity

The common story of modern China’s development is that it has two ages: Mao, and reform. The truth is there are at least six internally coherent economic eras within the country’s journey from basket case to superpower. Each with their own rules and obsessions. That’s certainly the view of Philip Pilkington, who has been crunching the deep data on the Chinese economy, in a new paper for Eurasia Magazine. This week, in an hour long special, Andrew Collingwood quizzes him on the particularities of these periods: from the black-and-white-cats of Deng, to the red-in-tooth-and-claw market mercantilism of Hu Jintao, up to Xi’s property sinking funds and robot army. As Philip argues, most US Republicans still imagine that the central danger of China is that it trades unfairly - in truth, the country has moved on from that point on the global value chain.Remember you can get special paywalled premium episodes of Multipolarity every month on Patreon: https://patreon.com/multipolarity or by becoming a member on our YouTube Channel (just click Join).

Would every company be affected if the AI bubble were to burst? That’s what Sundar Pichai, the head of Google's parent firm Alphabet reckons.The facts are startling, with the crypto market shedding more than $1tn in six weeks amid fears that the bubble may just go pop. With bitcoin price at its lowest level since April and the FTSE 100 falling, the guys at the top still say they absolutely do NOT think there’ll be a burst. That normally goes well right?In UK News, Philip has started somewhat of an X meltdown. He reported that British abortion rates as a % of pregnancies are exploding in spite of recent innovations in contraception. Warning that this a major signal that something is deeply wrong in the economy. Is Britain heading to an almighty demographic crash-out, leading to an immigration boom?Meanwhile in Mexico, after thousands of demonstrators marched in the capital on Saturday to protest against violent crime President Sheinbaum has again dismissed Trump’s threat of sending in US troops. Sheinbaum said the marches, which also took place in other cities, had been funded by right-wing politicians who oppose her government. Could the US be trying to encourage a colour revolution? While Trump continues to keep eyes on his armada in the southern Caribbean, close to Venezuela, who’s to say? And would it even work?Still hungry for more? Philip sat down to converse with Jacques Sapir, a leading expert on the Russian economy, and part of the Institute of Economic War in Paris, to chat all things Russia, for the Danube Institute. Thoroughly recommended, you can watch here: https://youtu.be/5raqAVEOWXURemember you can get special paywalled premium episodes of Multipolarity every month on Patreon: https://patreon.com/multipolarity or by becoming a member on our YouTube Channel (just click Join).

Multipolarity Dialogues is a series of interviews that scan the geopolitical horizon. We talk to some of the sharpest analysts, thinkers, and experts about how they see the world beyond the visible edge of the geopolitical now.The Middle East is as violent and fractious as ever. Now the questions that arise from that violence appear more important than ever. Israel seems to want to end the chaos in a way that provides it with military dominance over the region and some semblance of peace. But can it achieve this or even survive for much longer? Given the scale of enmity it faces in the region and the recent shifts in US domestic politics. What of Egypt, which has been since the Second World War, the dominant military power within the region? And are we seeing the reemergence of Turkey to its traditional place as regional hegemon? Well, to answer these questions we have Firas Modad joining us.Firas is a Druze Lebanese convert to Catholicism, who now lives and works in the UK. As founder and principle of Modad Geopolitics, a consultancy which provides commercially relevant analysis of the effect of geopolitical change on specific regions and industry sectors. Firas for some years now, has been a mainstay geopolitical commentator on the podcast circuit and indeed hosts his own podcast, Realpolitik, within the burgeoning Lotus Eaters ecosystem.

This week, the Lads are taking the sword to Trump’s big deal with China. The South Korean talks were heralded by both sides as a breakthrough. They reached agreements on US soybean exports, the supply of rare earth minerals, and the materials used in production of the drug fentanyl. They managed to resolve the Nexperia crisis by means of a simple volte face. But in an era where trade deals tend to come and go, Andrew and Philip are picking this one out as significant. A moment where the Trumpists have had to bend the knee to the rising power, and thereby, set out the trajectory of the next decade. Is this The Sorpaso? To listen in full to this hour long special, you’ll need to go to Patreon, and pay Andrew and Philip 5 £ $ €. Just google Patreon + Multipolarity.

This week: Halloween Fright Night on Multipolarity. We’re taking various geopolitical doomsday scenarios, and running through how they would play out, in full ghoulish detail. From Britain disintegrating, to America crashing the global economy, to Forever War on the Eastern Front. And stay tuned for an extra special guest… The Headless Norseman himself, Malcom Kyeyune. Remember you can get special paywalled premium episodes of Multipolarity every month on Patreon: https://patreon.com/multipolarity or by becoming a member on our YouTube Channel (just click Join).

This week: two audio essays.Peace is coming to Budapest… whether you believe it or not. So says Philip Pilkington, our man on the ground. The show may be paused, but that doesn’t change the fundamentals: Trump and Putin need a meeting; they need a venue; the Russian President can’t be arrested on sight. And Hungary’s nous in positioning itself as a true neutral makes it the ideal venue. He talks through the implications of the next phase of bargaining. Meanwhile, from the front pages to the middle of the paper: Andrew Collingwood says that we’re missing a really big story on Nexperia. The Dutch chip maker is now owned by the Chinese, and has become a resource allocation geopolitical football of late. Volkswagen has warned of temporary production outages citing China’s export restrictions on semiconductors made by Nexperia.In response, the Dutch government has intervened to take control of Nexperia’s governance under national security laws.  He warns that Europe could be sawing off the branch it sits on. If they steal Russian sovereign reserves – and at the same time go around stealing Chinese businesses is Europe even investible anymore, is using the Euro and sterling even possible anymore for third countries?Remember you can get special paywalled premium episodes of Multipolarity every month on Patreon: https://patreon.com/multipolarity or by becoming a member on our YouTube Channel (just click Join).

About a month ago, the foreign affairs and geopoltical media was abuzz with talk about the Victory Day military parade in Beijing. What had shocked was that, unlike the standard communist bloc military parades, with their thousands of Soviet-style tanks and armoured personnel carriers and well trained goose-steppers, this one showcased weaponry that could have come from a science fiction film: mobile, directed energy laser weapons; hypersonic glide vehicles; futuristic looking, fighter jet sized, loyal wingmen stealth drones; robot wolves; space defence systems.But was it real, or just a Potemkin arsenal driving past the Forbidden City? And if they were real, what do these things actually do? What do they mean for the balance of power in the western pacific? And, finally, as China climbs at breakneck speed up the military tech ladder, what does it mean for Washington's efforts to hold its defensive perimeter at the first Island Chain?Anybody interested in China's military tech, and especially its military aviation, will know TP Huang, an invaluable provider of detailed analysis on Beijing's ever greater military arsenal, and China's Beijing's technological progress more generally. He joins us for a special interview with Andrew. Multipolarity dialogues is a series of interview that scan the geopolitical horizon. We talk to some of the sharpest analysts, thinkers and experts about how they see the world beyond the visible edge of the geopolitical now.Remember you can get special paywalled premium episodes of Multipolarity every month on Patreon: https://patreon.com/multipolarity or by becoming a member on our YouTube Channel.

If you’re an enterprising nine year old looking to top up your pocket money, get yourself a bar of bullion. Gold is up to $4000 an ounce for the first time ever – while the dollar is down ten per cent on the year. The biggest drop since, well, since the gold window closed in 1971. Dedollarisation will always mean something-else-isation — this week’s rally seems to be the latest shake out. Between 2021 and 2027 the EU budget for NGOs was around €1.5bn. The new EU budget proposal is advocating increasing that 600%. While America now thinks that USAID is outdated political technology, the EU is trying to buy the dip.   Finally, we’ll have an update on three countries teetering on the brink: France, The Philippines and Georgia. Could the third world quasi-dictatorial basket case on that list actually topple over? And what about the Philippines? You can get special paywalled premium episodes of Multipolarity every month on Patreon: https://patreon.com/multipolarity

Welcome to Multipolarity Dialogues –  a series of interview that scan the geopolitical horizon. We talk to some of the sharpest analysts, thinkers and experts about how they see the world beyond the visible edge of the geopolitical now.On this episode: Anusar Farooqui. Like the public intellectual equivalent of a DC comics superhero, Anusar lives a double life. By day he’s a man who wrote his PhD research on the geometric noise arising from black hole rotation, and went on to found Systematic Portfolios, the New York hedge fund he currently leads as CEO. By night, he is Policy Tensor the writer of a highly regarded Substack that focuses on international relations, grand strategy and economics. Policy Tensor was one of the few analysts to argue in 2022 that the Russian economy was far stronger than commonly believed – in other words, that sanctions would fail.He joins Multipolarity with another warning – about an even greater danger, arguing that the United States might be preparing for the wrong war against China.We will be looking at the big picture strategic position between the US and China – the Thucydides Trap – and why Xi Jinping might take an entirely different route to win back Taiwan. 

Modern Monetary Theory. Magical Money Tree. Whichever name you know it by, everywhere, these days, the intellectual salons hum with people trying to say that they’ve invented that most terrifying of things: a new paradigm. That they have the economic equivalent of Einsteinian Relativity. These people profess that debt is no issue. That a country that prints its own currency can’t go broke. And rather, that by a canny toe-heel on the brakes, countries can juice their economies without slamming into a wall.  This week, after talking around the topic on any number of previous episodes, we’re tackling MMT head-on, in an hour long special edition.  Andy Collingwood is grilling Philip Pilkington, who claims to have been there at the birth of modern monetary theory in 2013 — and asking him whether there is much more here than a placenta, some hair and three teeth.    The answer, it transpires, is yes and no. MMT does indeed represent a new vein of insight. But that insight is only partial. Misapplied, it is as catastrophic to a monetary system as liquid Robert Mugabe.  So join us, on a journey, to a magical money tree not so far away…You can get special paywalled premium episodes of Multipolarity every month on Patreon: https://patreon.com/multipolarity